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168 replies on “Knicks Morning News (2026.01.28)”
Well, two of them are not his fault, he got the ball too late in the clock and even scored, only it was a hair past the violation.
hysterically, cyber, neither of those was credited as a tov to OG. he rolled an honest seven last night. shot clock violations are team turnovers.
There were some follies for OG for sure, and Josh. That a bunch of them came in transition where we had a clear advantage was especially ugly.
Poor Demar DeRozan…he deserves better. Hope he gets traded…just not here.
I don’t understand the reasons for banishing Tyler Kolek to Siberia.
Seconded.
(Meaning I agree with Hubert, not that Kolek was seconded to the bench. That would be a misuse of the term. Perhaps, anyway. “Seconded to Siberia” might work.)
I suppose I know what the reason is, I just don’t agree with it.
He hasn’t been seen since we saw Brown yell at him for leaving Champagnie open on Dec 31st. But Kolek didn’t leave him open all 11 times, and it’s not like we’ve tightened up our 3pt defense since then.
I’m not going to sit here and suggest benching Kolek led to our demise but they did both begin at the same time.
Scratch all that. I misread the game log.
It’s not just his defense. In 10 January games (14 mpg), Kolek put up a TS% of .426 and had 20 ASTs and 14 TOVs. He was literally unplayable.
Combine that with the fact that we were 1-8 in the games where he played over 10 minutes (not Kolek’s fault but he surely wasn’t helping), and that Mike Brown’s seat was starting to get a bit warm.
Then you have the cherry on top of Landry Shamet’s return.
Note that it’s not just Kolek. Brown has marginalized Clarkson, Huk, Yabu, and Diawara. When your team goes 2-9 in the context of your imperious governor/owner/whatever saying that it’s championship or bust, Brown went to essentially an 8-man rotation. I don’t blame him one bit.
It bears mentioning that the league probably took notice of Kolek’s strong play when he was initially getting minutes and he started showing up on scouting reports…force him this way, dare him to shoot this shot, goad him into this pass, iso this guy on him, etc. Kolek now has to counter-adjust, and if he doesn’t, he will stay glued to the bench on his way to Europe.
Hilariously, it took until January 28th for the Pistons to become the betting favorites on winning the Eastern Conference. The Knicks and Cavs had been the betting favorites until today.
The Knicks and Celtics are currently tied for the second-best odds.
Meanwhile, KAT was benched down the stretch again, so the tension between him and Brown is clearly not going away.
I mean, I like that Brown is starting to hold players accountable but when OG and Hart are playing hot potato out there it’s definitely not going to help justify things in KAT’s camp. Although he did bench Mikal down the stretch vs. the Sixers.
I suppose one could conjecture that this is a defining stretch for Mike Brown, one where he establishes some boundaries for low-IQ play. But if KAT is here past the deadline (highly likely in my book) he better do some damage control.
I don’t approve of his benching, but it’s not crazy for a couple reasons:
(1) Too many small guards with Shamet back
(2) Kolek’s struggles this month:
10 games
139 minutes
35.4% FGs
29.4% 3s
42.6% TS%
Per 36 roughly:
10.5pts — 13.2 on season
5asts — 7.4 on season
5.5rebs — 5.1 on season
1.4 ast:to — 2.74 on season
He has nearly as many TOs (14 vs 17) this month on 20 asts as he did last month on 61 asts.
His +/- went from +10.9 in December to -5.5 in January.
He went 10 minutes against the Nets without an assist. The NETS!!!
Brown better start playing him with the team leveling itself, but with both Kolek and the team as a whole struggling, I get it — I don’t agree — but I get it.
Edit; Damn, z-man beat me to it… by a lot
I like that we were able to “flip a switch” to take over in the fourth quarter—it was very Chicago Bears-like. The main difference being that the Bears often do it against other good-to-great teams, while we had to do it against a crappy one.
I also disagree with the doghousing of Kolek. If we keep not playing him and need him later, he won’t be at all ready. It’s like we’re undoing that small bit of Kolek-sanity that we had going on during the Cup and right afterwards, and he’s going to have to get that confidence back all over again. There are games where we can give Clarkson, Huk, Diawara, and even Yabu some strategic spot 5-8-minute stints, rather than zero.
Hilariously, it took until January 28th for the Pistons to become the betting favorites on winning the Eastern Conference. The Knicks and Cavs had been the betting favorites until today.
The Knicks and Celtics are currently tied for the second-best odds.
i’d say for a limit bettor the celtics and pistons are tied and the nyk are third on most books and prediction markets.
In fairness to Brown Hart was also benched down the stretch last night with Deuce and Mitch replacing Hart and KAT.
To be fair, Brown was probably just going with more defense at the end of the 4th. And while it wasn’t a great game from KAT, he did hit two threes in the 4th and was strong on the boards. Also, Brown was probably trying to use KAT sparingly since there’s another game today.
Edit: great minds, BBA
Karl-Anthony Towns is third in the NBA in defensive rebounds per 100 possessions, behind only Nurkic and Drummond. Drummond’s a backup.
As always, defensive rebounds are a component of defense.
Mitch is first (ahead of Drummond, Edey, Clingan, and Capela) in the NBA in TRB% at 25.9, while KAT is 21st at 19.9. (Last season, KAT was 12th, at 20.9.) Nice to have that from both of those guys.
Defensive rebounds are a part of defense, and are most assuredly what’s keeping KAT’s individual defensive rating afloat (though the early season noise in which we were better with him on the court has long since come and gone), but our TRB% is actually better with him off the court because he’s not an exceptional offensive rebounder. His impact on our net rating has officially become negative (-0.5), though that’s of course partially because Mitch has been gangbusters and they haven’t shared the court all that often.
All this to say, KAT being a disappointment with a questionable impact on winning this season isn’t Mike Brown’s imagination.
The defense is mediocre to terrible with either of the two bigs off (*) and great with both on.
The answer here is obvious. We’re now at the “reckless blindness” stage, moving ineluctably toward “willful blindness.”
(*) KAT ON, Mitch OFF — 794 minutes, 118.84
Mitch ON, KAT OFF — 428 minutes, 116.34
Both KAT and Mitch ON — 198 minutes, 109.2
He’s the only small guard who is a PG, though.
I get marginalizing Huk, Yabu, Diawarra, Clarkson, etc because we have much better players who play their position.
But minimizing Kolek isn’t simply tightening the rotation, it’s eliminating the backup PG position and introducing all the trickle down effects of doing so.
And so, if we’re going to keep playing Mitch about 25 minutes, about 15 minutes of them should also be with KAT? I still believe that we should have two of OG, Mitch, and Deuce on the floor at all times, whenever possible.
Yeah that’s the problem I have with the benching too.
Unfortunately, Kolek is struggling badly enough recently that merely being a PG isn’t enough. Long-term, we need a PG and need to let Kolek work through his issues. But short-term we needed to stop the bleeding.
That said, I’d have given Kolek minutes last night because if they lose to the Kings because Kolek got 5-10 minutes, then we need to blow this thing up anyway.
The starting lineup should be Mitch, KAT, Hart, Deuce, JB. (*) They should acquire a second quality defensive backup center before the deadline to cover the minutes Mitch’s bad wheels can’t cover — or run Huk more in that role.
(*) Mikal vs. Deuce is another argument, outside the scope of this post.
It was 82-78 when KAT was benched and we went on a 21-7 run to win the game without him.
Every time Brown benches KAT in the 4Q the team has responded by turning a close game into a runaway victory.
It’s not the coach that needs to do damage control.
I already posted KAT’s Minnesota numbers with and without Rudy for two full seasons worth of basketball. Nothing of the sort was “happening in Minnesota” before they traded KAT here. Of course they can.
Last night is just a small anecdote, with all sorts of noise and unpredictabilty. It’s not actionable data in any serious way. No one here or anywhere believes or asserts that the Knicks can’t blow out the Sacramento Kings without KAT.
Kolek may in fact be a PG, but he’s a terrible one at this point, like, worst in the NBA terrible. Playing him over the faux PG alternatives for anything over a couple of minutes will dramatically increase the probability of a loss.
It’s really no different than playing Yabu as a backup PF over just putting Hart in that role. Hart is no more of a PF than Deuce is a PG, but it’s better than having Yabu destroy possessions one after another, which is what Kolek was doing.
Now, that’s not to say that Kolek will continue to be terrible. Maybe he just needs time to process the adjustments that teams have made against him, or maybe he just lost confidence after a couple of bad outings. On the other hand, maybe he was just a flash in the pan that just doesn’t have it. But I doubt that Brown thinks it’s all that important of a question to get an answer to at this point. He’ll probably play him situationally in the coming games (the schedule between now and the ASB is brutal), and Kolek better be ready when his name is called. But I dount that he will ever re-enter the rotation this year unless guys get banged up.
E, I removed that bit to not focus on it but if you look up the game logs in his final Minnesota season you’ll see KAT was frequently benched for Naz Reid in 4Qs. It’s something I noted when the trade for KAT originally went down because it seemed to me like maybe it was a sign Minnesota was dumping their problem on us.
As I discovered in my reckless effort to find rotation time for Kolek a few days ago, with Shamet back it’s actually really hard to make that happen. You need to play Brunson, and/or Shamet, and/or Deuce less than is probably optimal just to find a few minutes for the guy.
I agree with the general consensus that we should still try to do that, but it’s not obvious. Last night Brunson played 34:39, Deuce was at 29.44. Both were pretty critical in keeping the leaky ship afloat during their minutes. Shamet only played 17:15.
Very glad Clarkson is being left back in the ice bath, though. Still an ugly mystery why Brown is throwing Yabu in for 2-3 painful minutes early on, however. That’s one of the weirder rotation decisions I’ve seen.
Stefan Bondy did a nice write-up on KAT/Brown in the NY Post a couple days ago. TL:DR, Mike Brown in fact changed a bunch of shit around. There’s no “imagining” going on here:
KAT’s On-Off is down to -0.5 for the season.
Far from conclusive, but not what you want to see from a superstar.
For a hot minute there, it looked like we had a few young players who might be able to step in and provide some reasonably decent depth. Not stars, but some guys who could give you minutes and provide some lineup flexibility.
That was mostly a mirage, so we’re right back to eight man rotations in January and the sobering realization that punting on the draft every single year is a bad idea.
And in a larger sense, the snafu with Brogdon during preseason is still casting a shadow over the backup PG situation. I don’t think Leon had any intention of Kolek being the sole “actual” PG option off the bench. That’s probably why the Alvarado rumors are making the rounds in the media and blogosphere. This team needs a playoff-quality backup in that role. Kolek is not that guy, and as we saw, neither was Cam Payne. Sooner or later, this team is gonna start leaking oil through that hole. There are a bunch of games coming up against top teams where that hole is going to be targeted.
KAT can’t fail, he can only be failed.
Small numbers and the delta in small numbers often mislead a bit, so let’s actually drill down. Under Mike Brown:
1. KAT’s drives are down 8.75 percent overall year-over-year, and 20 percent YOY in the last 15 games.
2. KAT’s postups are down 26.7 percent YOY.
3. Off-ball screens for KAT are down 37.5 percent YOY.
4. KAT is barely screening on the ball.
Mike Brown has completely changed KAT’s role. There was no reason to do this.
Their bench is hummingbird-wing thin. We know the reasons why.
Many of those differences seem pretty insignificant, E.
Furthermore, most of those divides existed intraseason last year, as well. The KAT of October, November, and December 2024 was awesome. We haven’t seen that guy since, and it increasingly looks like a flash in the pan. I bet if you look at those KAT numbers from this year and compare them to KAT’s numbers from January through May they’ll look the same.
KAT not driving and KAT not posting up wings is a KAT problem. He was likely very motivated by the trade but that motivation has waned.
Nope, all those things are way down with Knicks Coach 2 compared to where they were with Knicks Coach 1.
What we’re getting from the kids is largely what you can expect from kids. They were a decent stopgap and that’s about it.
I don’t think the losing stint was all that much on them. The team has bigger issues.
It is indeed peculiar. Trade purposes to show that he’s healthy?
Maybe KAT should concentrate on not flailing with his off arm and kneeing guys in the balls when he drives rather than pouting that he isn’t getting enough touches. While he’s at it, maybe he should figure out how to not commit at least 2 G-League level (being generous) defensive fouls every game.
There was a sequence last night where KAY had 100yo Russell Westbrook iso’ed 10 ft from the basket and got completely stymied. Was that on Brown too?
0.8 off ball screens per game to 0.5 strikes me as close to meaningless regardless of the percentage.
8.0 drives per game to 7.3 doesn’t seem stark, either. And frankly both this number and the reduced post ups can be easily explained by “KAT’s just being a bitch.”
As an occasional boisterous connoisseur of the art, far be it from me to bemoan a good barstool rant; that said, we have access to a whole bunch of data now.
Id.
I’m not gonna argue the aesthetics of the guy. I fully understand the discontent with them.
Yeah, I don’t think going from 0.8 off ball screens to 0.5 makes a huge difference.
Neither does going from 3 to 2.2 postups.
He’s played 10% fewer minutes. So on a per minute basis, it’s an even smaller difference. Based on your drive number, he’s actually taking more per minute.
KAT off-ball screens: 0.72ppp 13.5th percentile
Post-up: 0.74ppp, 11.5th Percentile.
Crazy we’re not running those more.
There was no reason to change KAT’s role, Mike Brown doesn’t have the juice to do it, and no serious basketball team chooses Mike Brown over Karl-Anthony Towns. (*)
Beyond that, flail and flog away on the guy.
(*) Oh, and the data clearly shows that JB is the defensive fit problem, not KAT. Four simplicities. And if they make a “fit” trade involving KAT, the window closes. Five.
“Nope, all those things are way down with Knicks Coach 2 compared to where they were with Knicks Coach 1.”
Right, we know how much you valued Thibs’s coaching.
The differences in KAT’s volume numbers are hardly significant. In his last 2 years in Minny he averaged 16.1 and 16.9 FGA per 36. This year he’s averaging 16.2. Last year under Thibs it was 17.4.
His rebounding, assist, steal, block, and TOV numbers are all similar to last year. The main difference is that he’s missing more shots, both from 2 and from 3. They are largely the same shots he took last year, with the same amount of assisted shots from both levels. The changes in his role have been minimal.
I don’t really give a shit about who starts, but if he keeps stumbling, bumbling, and bricking his way to a squandering of $30+M AAV*, let him sit at the end of games whenever Brown sees fit. This is a KAT problem way more than a Brown problem.
*KAT is probably playing to a $20M AAV contract, give or take. He’s in the Vuc-Nurkic class right now.
Josh Hart is a problem. And I don’t mean that in a bad way because he’s invaluable to this team. I mean it in the sense of “this starting 5 doesn’t play well enough together for it to be our best lineup”. So that makes the problem become who to start in his place. Mitch to keep the physicality, or Deuce to create spacing and on ball defense? It’s easy to say “bring Bridges off the bench”, but we all know he’s not coming off the bench. He shoots it much better than Hart, and he’s still the better defender, if only by a little. Hart is the ultimate glue piece in any situation, so he’ll find a way to thrive off the bench. But I’m torn because this team plays much better when he’s healthy, and I feel like that alone makes him deserving of a starting role.
One way I can see Mitch starting and it working is if Brown keeps his minutes around 22 mpg and it helps him stay available. That way you can sub Hart in at anywhere from the 2-4 spots. But on the flipside, Deuce has been great in his own right this season- especially with the starters. But we shrink with him at the 2 and KAT at the 5 around Brunson, Anunoby, and Bridges. Given all the work OG does defensively, I don’t think it’s reasonable to expect him to up his rebounding and sustain it while remaining healthy. He’s just not that type of player.
Or..maybe KAT finally feels the fire at his feet and plays with more determination like he did under Thibs? I dunno. But Hart’s greatness does complicate things for the starting 5, and I’m not sure what’s the best way to use him. But he sure as shit better not get traded lol
Did you see that play in the first quarter when he tried to post up Westbrook of all people only to have it poked away for a turnover? He’s not very good in the post, especially against quicker players.
It’s funny, it sounds like Orlando is going through a similar issue with Banchero right now re: role. Post-up bigs just aren’t ideal these days. Rim-runners (Duren) and shooters (Chet) are what teams need bigs to be now. In other words, clear the lane for a quicker driver and be in the right place for an alley oop or corner three.
Edit: sorry Z, I see you beat me to it, but there you have it. The same thing happens on KAT’s drives OFTEN.
“The starting lineup should be Mitch, KAT, Hart, Deuce, JB.”
I’d love it if Mike Brown would try this, E. But can we all admit that there is no realistic way in which Mikal is going to come off the bench?
Dude that’s literally what Brown was hired for.
Changing the offense to get more people involved was his mandate.
And I hate it to break it to you but driving to the basket isn’t a play call, it’s a choice you make when you have the ball in your hands. Posting up someone 6 inches smaller than you is a choice, too.
Yeah a starting lineup without both OG and Bridges is beyond stupid.
He was hired to be more “collaborative” — James Dolan’s words in public less than three weeks ago.
I know this is your consistent narrative, but I have no idea where you’re getting it from.
Dolan got sick of him, Thibs wears on his co-workers, and Mikal whined. That’s why Thibs was fired. It had literally nothing to do with Karl-Anthony Towns’s role in the offense or on the team. James Dolan doesn’t give a single fuck about that kind of detail.
I mentioned this the other day, but one beef I have with Mikal is that his iron-man streak gets in the way of benching him for a load management game. If he were playing like Michael Jordan, sure, keep him in there. But I don’t think he should have the gravitas to have decisions made on the basis of keeping his streak alive when he is going through bad stretches.
I don’t think Brown has the cojones to bench him for a game, so the only way for it to happen would be for Mikal to either tweak something or to come down with the flu…even a bad case of the shits probably wouldn’t do it, he’d just strap on a depends and get out there until things got slippery.
“Yeah a starting lineup without both OG and Bridges is beyond stupid.”
Yep, I agree, even though I just wrote the opposite. I missed that OG wasn’t in there because I was focused on the fact that Deuce *was* in there rather than Mikal. So because we are forced to limit Mitch’s minutes, then KAT, OG, Hart, Deuce, JB, with Mitch as the first guy off the bench with either OG or Deuce still in. Better.
But still not happening because Mikal is going to start pretty much no matter what.
Maybe the most dispiriting 16 point win ever.
I hate the iron man streak. It’s dumb. Sometimes the body needs to rest
Sochan given permission to explore trades…
Of course, this says nothing about what the Spurs would want in return.
Dolan didn’t support Thibs, so in the wake of some player discontent with Thibs, Dolan sat in on Knick exit interviews to support the players over Thibs and then whacked Thibs as he was always going to do.
Dolan does support the awful Chris Drury, so in the wake of some player discontent with Drury, Dolan sat in on Ranger exit interviews to support Drury over the players, and then kept Drury on as he was always going to do.
That’s the offseason 2025 MSG senior sports management personnel decisions. No more complicated than that. None of it had a single thing to do with the granular detail of the teams’ schematics on the floor or the ice.
It was a blunder by me.
Mitch, KAT, OG, Deuce, JB.
I was already extremely skeptical of KAT’s “role change” claim, and having seen E’s purported proof for it I’m even more convinced it’s just an excuse he’s making for not playing well. There’s essentially no change other than a minutes reduction, which we were pretty much unanimously calling for with regards to the starters across the board.
I will repeat that the bulk of the issue is that he’s missing shots he made last year, and has made throughout his career. That’s not a “role” thing.
I believe that BBA’s comment was dripping with sarcasm. But if not, I vehemently disagree. Both OG and Bridges should start. If anyone should come off the bench based on merit, it should be KAT. I would love to see what a starting lineup of Mitch, OG, Mikal, Hart, and Brunson could do. Well, we did win one vs. the Magic earlier this season with that lineup…
The issue was never coaching or role, it’s was the players.
Once the league figured out the Brunson/KAT PNR, we never really found an answer and that’s because we don’t have another initiator who can do what Brunson does. It turned out that KAT was not an effective passing hub, and Mikal couldn’t initiate at a higher usage.
In short, our stars just aren’t good enough.
This is from last year’s team but it explains pretty well what’s still going on: https://neilpaine.substack.com/p/the-knicks-are-riding-brunson-and
That was the coaching failure. Thibs wasn’t able to counter the counter. Probably worth it to try someone else, but Brown wasn’t your guy.
daily giannis update available. it’s the new TACO trade. Giannis Yearns to Request Out!
It would be great to start Mitch, regardless of the combination of Mikal, Hart, or Deuce that is in there with him (I would choose Deuce) along with OG and Jalen. But the fact of the matter is that we cannot use Mitch for starter’s minutes if we want any hope of having him healthy and mobile for the playoff run.
That’s primarily the failure of offensive creativity and pop of “Wingstop,” long noted and bemoaned by certain Knickerblogger commentators. This team could really use an all-around wing creator. They have nothing there at the moment.
You don’t think the Knicks hired Mike Brown to run Mike Brown’s offense?
Actually, no I don’t. They hired him because he was seen to be the best sixth or seventh option after they were forced to scramble to hire a new coach and struck out with their top five-plus options.(*)
If you want to be that literal, they wanted to run Jason Kidd’s offense. But they didn’t want to hire Jason Kidd just for his offensive principles, such as they are.
(*) And of course, he wasn’t. Someone like Jordan Ott or Taylor Jenkins would have been better picks. Michael Malone, too. Probably multiple others.
ptmilo, that’s not a TACO trade, that’s a GYRO trade…
I would guess that all of Brunson, OG, Bridges, and Hart are very frustrated playing with KAT, as any high-IQ player would be. He might have the lowest IQ/talent ratio in the NBA.
And even though those guys are “professional” about it, I’m sure their disdain comes through in passive-aggressive ways. And KAT is probably to nice of a guy to call them out for it.
It’s no surprise that Draymond has such fun fucking with him. Nothing is more offensive to Draymond than low-IQ play. And Brown’s embrace of Draymond probably had an element of eye-rolling in it.
It’s common knowledge across the league. Make KAT do dumb shit. He’ll get you here and there, but it mostly works.
Dang. Should have added Saddiq Bey to the ‘Nova contingent before he got expensive.
It’s hilarious that Giannis’ agent clearly told Shams that he better not use a term like “trade demand”
Has KAT actually said publicly that he’s not getting enough touches? Pretty sure he hasn’t, just some BS about adjusting to his new role.
And it would be pretty stupid for him to say that, considering the Knicks get him the ball almost every possession when he’s on the court.
What happens after is the issue…
Other than KAT, who are the other high-priced guys who rank low in IQ/Talent ratio? Here’s some who stand out to me:
Banchero
LaMelo
Julius
Ja
Poole
If the Heat or Warriors get Giannis, I’m switching to football DO YOU HEAR ME, SILVER?
As an aside, the idea that Jalen Brunson is the main driver of our defensive woes is not at all well-founded. First off, it doesn’t really matter that JB is a horrible defender since you can hide him on the worst offensive player. Indeed, you can hide a poor defensive player who plays at any position other than center on the worst offensive player. While of course you can hunt Brunson by forcing a switch on the screen, that defensive negative is pretty marginal if your other four defenders–especially your center–are quality. And as a matter of fact, plenty of championship level teams have had a starter that they have to hide on defense.
Perhaps the issue, according to some, is that he’s a PG and PG defense is somehow particularly important. I don’t think this is true, for two reasons. One, being a good point of attack defender is generally overrated because you can always force switches with enough screens. This is what would happen, for example, to Kawhi and Tony Allen when they were at their defensive peak. Two, because defense is increasingly positionless, you’re not going to be guarding the PG with a PG all of the time. Rather, you’re going to be guarding the PG (if they are an offensive threat) with one of your 2 – 3 best defenders. In the case of the Knicks, we’re pretty much never guarding the starting PG with our starting PG, since our starting PG is Jalen Brunson.
It turns out the only weak link on defense that you can’t hide is center, since centers anchor the defense and are very large, so their role is different. Indeed, the ‘weak link’ metaphor is a bit misleading here, since it suggests that each link in the chain equally contributes to the stability of the chain–that JB’s poor defense in his role harms the team’s defense just as much as KAT’s poor defense does in his. But this isn’t true in basketball, since rim protection is by far the most important part of defense and cannot be replaced by doing things like hiding, or switching, or zone, or whatever, that you can do with other poor defenders in less important roles.
While it is true–as many have stressed here–that having two bad defenders on the court has negative spillover effects on team defense, this is more KAT’s fault than Brunson’s. And this is because Brunson, given the very nature of his position on the basketball court, matters less to the quality of the defense than KAT does.
So, given the known fact that KAT is only a defensive anchor in the sense that he tanks your DRtg when he’s at center, the simplest explanation for the bulk of our defensive woes is that we have a very bad defender at the most important defensive position on the floor. It really does not have very much to do with Jalen Brunson himself (though a secondary issue in our defense is our general slow-footedness outside of Wingstop). To me the only way to our defensive issues is to trade KAT or to start Mitch. Since the former likely isn’t happening at the deadline, we should hope that Mitch can play 25 – 30 minutes come playoff time.
KAT is a lot like Amar’e Stoudemire in that he’s a hothouse flower of a player. Amar’e could rack up some amazing stats and help you win if you put him in the correct context: uptempo offense, Steve Nash feeding him the ball. Take some of that away and instead give him Ray Felton feeding him the ball, and try to play him alongside Carmelo Anthony’s jab stepping attacks, and all of a sudden he’s not so great.
You have to play KAT next to a great defensive C, or he just doesn’t really work. And if you do play him next to a great defensive C, that hampers his offense because of spacing issues. It’s just hard to optimize him despite his talents.
The Amare comparison isn’t bad.
KAT worked fine defensively in Minnesota without Rudy. It’s better to play him next to a Rudy or a Mitch, but it isn’t necessary.
Brunson’s the defensive problem. Even the 2023 playoff team that surrounded him with Grimes, Hart, RJ, Hartenstein, Mitch, etc. that had the best playoff defense in the league, still had a 110+ playoff DRat with JB ON — 17 points/100 higher than when he was OFF. His defensive on-off numbers are consistently bad. KAT’s are anything but.
1. I want more of this:
Brunson and McBride in the backcourt, Anunoby and Bridges on the wings, Mitch at C.
That’s the best defensive lineup I can come up with that might be able to both score enough and cover for Brunson’s woeful defense. At the very least, I’d try closing with it.
2. Backup PG has been an issue since Brogdon decided his body couldn’t handle it anymore.
There are really only 2 good possibilties.
a. You believe Kolek is the guy and can handle it at some point soon. If that’s the case, you play him through his ups and downs so he’s ready by playoff time.
b. You believe Kolek is not the guy, at least not anytime soon. If that’s the case you get a backup PG.
If it’s not one of those two, we are destined to run into problems when Brunson/Hart are off the court. Those are the only two guys that can handle enough playmaking responsibility to have a “consistently” functioning offense…and to be honest, neither is a real PG.
Some guys are very good but harder to build around than others.
We have two of them and they don’t fit together with each other defensively and one doesn’t enhance the other offensively. It’s not much more complicated than that.
@Krisplashed
“Karl-Anthony Towns has played 20, 16, and now 27 minutes in his last 3 games.
“We got a win. That’s the most important thing.”
The Knicks’ closing lineup of Brunson-McBride-Bridges-Anunoby-Robinson has a +26.4 net rating in 23 minutes this season”.
Jonathan Macri
@JCMacriNBA
According to
@cleantheglass
Deuce McBride at PG this year: 0.0 net in 648 poss.
Deuce at SG this year: +17.1 in 1285 poss. (and he’s excellent at SG with or without JB)
I think the idea that our frontline talent simply isn’t good enough is correct.
We all love Jalen Brunson, and he gives you great value on that contract, but he just can’t be the best player on a championship team. He can be the second best player, and he can be the guy you go to for buckets down the stretch, but he’s simply not a good enough player to be the best player on a championship team.
The other guys we have in the rotation– OG, Mikal, Hart, Towns, Robinson, Deuce– those guys are all good enough to be key players on a championship team. But add it all up and there just isn’t enough talent. This has been a fun run with these guys, and maybe we’ll make another good playoff run this year. But the Knicks are just a bit less exciting to me this year because I’m pretty sure we’ve seen the ceiling. Barring a trade that brings in a superstar, I don’t think we’re really gonna go a whole lot farther than we’ve already gone.
@shwinnypooh
Once again the NBA has 5 or 6 franchise talents with 30 teams . Good luck
Oh wow Deuce is out tonight and so is obviously Mitch. Hart is also questionable, how the fuck do you prioritize last night’s game over tonight at Toronto?
It’s a little more complicated, because while they don’t enhance the other offensively — the team’s offense is very good and roughly the same with both in, or either one in and the other off — the defense and net ratings are far better with KAT on/JB off.
If the Knicks as a whole were the Knicks in the 945 minutes KAT has been on and JB off since KAT got here, that would be the best or second best team in the association and the second best defense. (DRat 109.43, Net +10.52)
If Deuce is holding the fort at backup PG, that’s good enough to play him over Kolek.
Brunson’s defense can be at least somewhat forgiven, not only because of all the spot-on things that Alecto brought up, but because he is, by a million miles, the best offensive player on the team…and that is going to be true no matter who the coach is or who is on the floor with him or what offensive schemes are being run.
No such thing can be said about KAT. Unless you are in the “KAT can’t fail, he can only be failed” camp.
You might almost say he’s a hero…
Who did the Knicks organization fail worse, RJ or KAT?
Seven teams out of 30 have won titles in the last seven years. That’s 23% of the league.
It’s not vanishingly impossible to win a title if you’re correctly focused on acquiring players who can actually win you said title. We went all in on Mikal Bridges.
Bookmarked, JK! I still believe…
Though I don’t know if Mike Brown is up to it. On the one hand, he’s shown a willingness to experiment and limit minutes etc. He installed a more diverse offense where everyone (should) get more touches. But he seems to struggle with lineups; stuff that’s obvious to us (like the closing group last night, which many here advocated for), is almost accidental when it happens…or so it seems. The most obvious thing at the moment to me is that Kolek should be fine playing 10 minutes with 4 starters around him – in other words, he can spell Brunson for a bit, but NOT WITH CLARKSON AND YABU ON THE COURT AT THE SAME TIME. And he should get those minutes, because equally obvious is that without Brunson, the offense grinds to a halt. If it’s the full defensive lineup, the other team doesn’t score either, but we can do better, especially since Kolek is no worse a defender than Brunson.
Based on the number of posts from E, RJ. But there’s still time.
I do find it wild that someone could believe the coach’s job is to maximize the output of one player. Unless that player is MJ, Jokic, Giannis, a few others, it’s a bad idea that doesn’t add to wins.
Absolute stupidity.
After not being so enthused, to becoming very pleasantly surprised, I’m starting to have buyer’s remorse.
That’s making the case for trading KAT since JB is probably untouchable, but it’s no less of a problem that the data suggests JB’s defensive woes offset a lot of the good he does offense and that his PG play does not enhance Towns on offense.
To me, if we really want to seriously contend, one probably has to go.
I saw someomne suggesting we could get Giannis for Mikal and OG plus some other things and keep Towns and JB. I almost threw up.
“If Deuce is holding the fort at backup PG, that’s good enough to play him over Kolek.”
Except say tonight, when Deuce is out.
Odds on our getting Clarkson instead?
“Who did the Knicks organization fail worse, RJ or KAT?”
For the record, I was closer to being in E’s camp on RJ than the haterz. But never to the point of regretting the trade for OG, or thinking he was in any way worth pining over. He’s a good young player on a market-level deal or slightly above, and his shooting is much better with TOR than his detractors here thought it would be. Of course, it seems like TOR is itching to swap him out, which is telling considering his hometown status. But it’s the haterz that should take the L in this case.
Nope, plenty of evidence that Brunson can be off the court and the Knick offense can still hum.
KAT on/JB off: 945 minutes, ORat 119.95 (4th last year, 3rd this year.
KAT and OG on/JB off: 420 minutes, ORat 122.26 (best in league either year)
It was the right move. The only reason we won last night is because we were +25 in Mitch’s minutes.
A split is fine. If we’d lost to the Kings last night the sky would be falling.
“Odds on our getting Clarkson instead?”
I think those odds are pretty good, but more likely, both will play.
I mean Knicks should still win tonight since the Big 4 are all playing and we’ve whooped Toronto twice already but it’s obviously gonna be tougher without Deuce and Mitch.
I find myself increasingly of the mind that Zion’s body is a better bet than KAT’s head. The fact that Zion’s contract is non guaranteed makes it a safer bet, too.
If you extend the data to include games in which all the selected players didn’t play, IOW the ones where one or more of the players were injured, you get an even bigger and clearly significant sample size. When you do that, there’s virtually no difference between the offense with KAT in and JB out and the one vice versa, or even when both are in.
You do, however, still get a massive difference in defensive and net rating:
Both ON: 2248 minutes, 122.60/118.58/4.02
KAT ON/JB OFF: 1626 minutes, 120.10/112.5/8.01
JB ON/KAT OFF: 1466 minutes, 120.15/117.57/2.58
Easy. Last night was the more winnable game. At home vs. a worse team. Secure the W for the more winnable game and then if you beat Toronto on a back to back on the road, gravy. Could lose tonight either way but we’ve beaten Toronto already. Plus, if we face them in the playoffs, giving them less opportunities to play us fully healthy is a good thing.
And we can win tonight. Losing to the Kings at home would have been a very bad look.
If there’s an even distribution of OG on within those minutes you might have a point. But he alone could be the driver of that disparity.
Nope, same pattern:
OG/KAT/JB ON: 1673 minutes: 122.03/117.9/4.14
OG and KAT ON/JB OFF: 923 minutes: 119.88/113.82/6.06
OG and JB ON/KAT OFF: 934 minutes: 119.6/115.13/4.48
There’s really no evidence at all that this roster needs Jalen Brunson to have a top 5 (or even top 2 or 3) offense. OTOH, there’s a pile of evidence that they can’t construct a good defense with him (and that they and other teams can construct a very competitive (or even better) defense with Karl-Anthony Towns).
Not a criticism, not a value judgment, nothing to do with aesthetics, likability, rootability, or any of that. But it is cold, hard reality.
Zion’s numbers are pretty much down across the board, he’s taken exactly three threes and made zero this year, and I seriously doubt he’s learned to play defense. He’s good for two flashy dunks per game, but it’s swapping out one flawed character for another.
Plus say what you want about the guy, but Towns is leading the entire league in rebounds per game. Which is not nothing.
But *why* isn’t Deuce playing tonight? “Left ankle management”?
By the way, Josh is also questionable for tonight.
Unless they were saving KAT for tonight, not necessarily benching him.
That being said, I think tonight is a great test for KAT. He needs to get going early and prove he’s worth keeping around as a 1A type dude.
I’m slightly pissed though that we really aren’t in a position to get Giannis (unless he says “NYC or nothing”). If any of our non-Brunson players were playing well rn we could at least swap them out for picks/young players, but seriously, who’s dying to acquire KAT, OG, or Mikal rn?
Deuce is really our only other plus-value player atm, and he’s not even being showcased at his correct position alongside starters.
ESPN isn’t qualifying Jokic for rebounds per game, but RealGM is. So depending on who you believe, Jokic may be leading the league in rebounds per game at 12.2 to KAT’s 11.4. Just another data point—it sure would be nice if all stats services would use the same qualifying numbers at any given point in the season. Still, point taken on KAT.
I think there would be a *lot* of suitors for OG if he were made available.
Dylan Cardwell sure can rebound, too—13.3 rebounds per 36.
Over the past two seasons, Josh Hart, Mikal Bridges, OG Anunoby, and Karl-Anthony Towns, the Knicks’ primary starters, have played 419 minutes without Jalen Brunson and have an offensive rating of 122.22. That would be the best in basketball for a full season. The net rating of that grouping is +6.04.
Swap in JB for KAT, keep everything else the same and that team has a dreadful ORat of 112.69 and a net rating of minus-6.76.
Among the obvious conclusions here is that I’ve sold Wingstop short and they’re being held down pretty significantly on the offensive end by JB (at least if they have KAT to help). More cold, hard reality.
This from the Athletic. I wanted to trade for Mikal, so maybe I’m just self-soothing here, but most of those picks we gave up don’t bother me, especially since we didn’t lose any players. The major blunder was the ’31 pick. But beyond that, we’re likely to be good for the next few years, meaning #20 or later, and it’s tough to find great players there. Certainly not impossible, and the Nets did not make great choices – but three of those were our slots, and they came away with very little.
I do understand that part of the idea is taking bites of the apple, a la Presti, but I feel like the acquisition cost of Mikal is maybe a bit overstated. That ’31 pick…ouch. But in terms of fit and salary, Mikal is fine. I wish he were more, but he’s fine.
The delta went from 5.07 pts to 1.31 pts. That’s not the same.
Zion has improved a LOT on defense and is a good enough defender now to where that is maybe the strongest part of his game.
I’m a Zion skeptic overall, and still wouldn’t be all that interested in acquiring him, but his defense has come a long way.
The “pattern” is the ORat not falling much if at all with JB off, but the DRat and Net Rating being way better.
This team could trade Jalen Brunson tomorrow and still be able to build a top-grade offense. Their defense would immediately improve signficantly. That’s what they should be looking to do.
I get why you thought that, he does some great things on the offensive end — but the team should do the literal opposite of “making this a Jalen Brunson team again.”
I’ve liked what we saw of him in those two games. Was wondering last night whether he’s better than Huk, or just getting playing time on a bad team (as he should).
yesterday i went with the unsolicited soliloquy on the dangers of abusing lineup data and today i’m wondering if entropy has reversed
E has had some crazy days of asinine posts over the years but today might take the cake.
OKC may have something to say about it but there hasn’t been parity like this since the 1970s, which was the only full decade in NBA history without a team winning 3+ titles
PT has a book on his bedside titled, “Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics.”
The Knicks’ net rating the last two years is way better with JB off the court than it is with him on (8.16 vs. 3.46), and that’s with no real backup point guard and a shitty bench.
Put most basically and starkly, they’ve played 1409 minutes without him, to a DRat of 107.28 — top 1 to 2 level.
Then when you really drill down to lineups where the group almost certainly aren’t playing against bench guys, like the OG/Josh/Mikal/KAT grouping, and run data that isolate his impact versus KAT’s in 900+ minutes or even more, that aggregate looks even worse.
I have great respect for Al Gore, but it’s hard to avoid the conclusion that the internet was a mistake.
The pattern is that KAT usually plays with OG and Deuce when Jalen sits.
The Pels are stupid, but I don’t even think they would swap Zion for KAT. Zion’s like 5 years younger and cheaper (and he probably won’t get the crazy max extension that KAT got).
Not trying to give E a boner here, but I think the only KAT trade to NO we could get would involve Dejounte and parts. But there’s not really room for KAT there if they’re keeping Zion and Queen.
I could see KAT going to Memphis if they can get Ja out of town. Same with Sacto and Sabonis.
First E came for Thibs and I did nothing. Then he came for Brunson…
Are we sure E isn’t a sleeper agent Celtics fan? Stanning for RJ, lamenting us trading Cam Reddish for Hart. Advocating for us to fire the best coach we’ve had in 2 decades and now going after our franchise savior?
Thanks. 7 turnovers looks pretty bad, but maybe because almost everybody was playing kind of bad i didn’t even notice.
Windhorst thinks Giannis will end up with the Warriors
There was a stretch in, I believe, the second quarter where all that happened was OG turning it over four times in a row, and five or of six possessions. It was crazy. It did in fact look terrible, and was commented on in the game thread.
KAT plays better with OG than Jalen does.
ess-dog, the Pelicans are reportedly considering cutting Zion this summer. He has no trade value, he’s just cap filler.
A trade would have to look like KAT, Yabu, Clarkson for Zion, Missi, Alvarado to be balanced. And I suspect we can get a pick from them, as well.
Li’l Penny would make an excellent maternity leave replacement for Karoline Leavitt.
I would be pretty happy with that trade
“A trade would have to look like KAT, Yabu, Clarkson for Zion, Missi, Alvarado to be balanced. And I suspect we can get a pick from them, as well.”
Sign me up, Hubie.
I’ve wanted Zion on this team for years. Obviously you make that trade.
I’d want ZIon, but even just getting Missi gets KAT back to the 4 way more often, thus improving everything.
Did a quick google search to support the Zion has no value thesis:
https://bleacherreport.com/articles/25315671-what-zion-williamsons-trade-value-windhorst-assesses-pelicans-star-amid-injury
That’s literally all that matters.
In terms of the hypothetical big trade, Brown would have to have the stones to play Deuce and/or Alvarado when JB’s getting lit up defensively.
I can’t agree with that strategically.
If you can’t beat Sacramento at home without one or both of Mitch and Deuce while the Kings are missing Zach and Monk, just blow it up. You suck.
You play the Kings at less than 100% and focus on the more important game against Toronto. You want both wins and you go for it!
KAT doesn’t get back down court to help his teammates defend on the regular. What the fuck are we talking about. Trade him.
I continue to think that the best chance of the Knicks acquiring Giannis is involving the Blazers and somehow wrangling any or all of their Milwaukee picks going back to Milwaukee in the deal. But even then, someone coupl probably beat that offer. It will come down to Giannis being adamant about the Knicks and only the Knicks, and judging by reports, that seems unlikely.
I wouldn’t be shocked if another team not being talked about jumps in. For example, maybe Boston offers Tatum and all of their picks for him…god forbid!
(actually, it would be a very dumb trade for the Celts, as a healthy Tatum is both younger and a top-10 player and Giannis is probably heading into decline)
I think that Giannis going to the Warriors or the Lakers (Giannis for LeBron straight up?) makes the most sense…….not for the Warriors, but for us!!!
Well if Giannis isn’t coming here, better that he winds up out west. It would take a lot more than the Lakers could offer to get him, though.
I don’t see how the Warriors could provide value in a trade for Giannis either, at least not without including Steph. So it seems really unlikely to me.
Let’s assume for a moment we are Giannis’s first choice. We can try to put together 3 teams deals to acquire some picks. but let’s assume other teams can beat those bids. Giannis can simply tell the Bucks to wait until the off season when multiple teams will have more pick flexibility (including the Knicks) and make the trade then. That enhances his chances of coming to NY, probably increases what the Bucks get and doesn’t blow up this season and cause major adjustments for NY this season. It makes even more sense if Giannis is going to be out for 6 weeks or more like he says.
We could make off season deal (s), offer more and start fresh.
Clippers are 16-3 in their last 19 games
Knicks one of the teams that beat them
Neither the warriors or lakers offer a reasonable pathway to the finals. Sure Giannis at his best can make light of the symplegades but that’s a tough gauntlet to run. If he’s serious about winning and that’s why he wants out the he has to stay in the East. Or just go to OKC.
Or to Houston. Giannis at PF, Sengun at C, Durant at…….well, whatever he is now. Wow.
But still, his mounting injuries and the fact that we’d likely only get 60 regular season games out of him with playoff games being a crapshoot for his health at this point, is really really scaring me off especially when it comes to his price point. Franchise killer for years if we get that wrong.
I understand taking a big swing and I’m for it if it’s for the right player, one who is likely on the right side of 30 years old.
Day 1
geo 0
man, just rested up monday and tuesday from having the boys over…had plans to go take care of a several errands today…
discovered i had misplaced my bank card (one of the errands was to go pick up some cash) just before heading out the door…looked for it initially, but started getting an unsettled feeling…went ahead and drove to the first stop on errand day, afterwards though headed back home, searched and quickly found the card (fell on the floor by my desk, usually things end up lost there or beneath the car seat)…
decided though that was way more than enough excitement for today, cancelled all other errands and planned trips…back to bed…maybe do some laundry…
them knicks better come through with a less than visceral viewing experience this evening…easy win would be just the right balm for any unsettled feelings…
been escaping to the past most of the day: the green sahara and early dynastic egypt…it was actually that ancient osireon “facility” close to the nile that got me started…interesting place…
Would you settle for a no-stress loss?
Zion currently has a 4.2 OBPM, which would be 2nd on the Knicks. I really don’t think he has negative value, no matter what Fatty McGee said for clicks.
neither mitch nor huk have similar offensive responsibilities compared with KAT, but it’s super noticeable how differently those two react on transition defense…
noticed that some folks have implied lately that their belief is that KAT himself prefers playing the center position over playing power forward…
I wasn’t aware of that coming out anywhere?
I’ve been assuming that he preferred the power forward position over playing center…might be wrong with that…
was thinking on the way back home today that most of the people that I know, when they experience stress they will generally reach out to others…
even after years of therapy, my first thought towards safety and stability is of “bunkering up”…being alone…
so, yeah – i need this win tonight rama, like bad…mmmmmm, maybe a little weed and chocolate first…
The idea that Brunson and KAT don’t play well together, so you should trade… Brunson
That’s certainly one of E’s more idiosyncratic takes, which is saying a lot from the “if you want a title, trade for Dejounte” and “Cam Reddish is good at basketball” guy
count me in on hoping giannis heads out west, maybe spurs or rockets, outside shot at going to golden state…
would not like to see him end up somehow on the heat or pistons, or really any other decent team in the east…
Geo, you think YOUR day was confusing and worrisome, I went and grabbed a section of my delightful new strategic plan and pasted it into the email I was sending to my boss and the only thing that showed up was ‘Karoline Leavitt.’
Because I’d had to google her earlier, as I avoid all political pressers. Or news. And had no idea who she is.
Luckily I did not immediately hit send, so no harm no foul.
I agree, Doogie. Too many people think the goal is just to get Giannis. All of these trades suck for us.
In other news, Homer Simpson once referred to God as “Killy McGee” because he’s killed a lot of people.
We are probably going to wind up trading Yabu along with 2nd round compensation to get something we could use, preferably a backup PG. SA makes some sense because I think Yabu and Wemby are friends, but they’ll play hardball. They certainly don’t want or need Yabu. I hope it doesn’t cost us Dadiet who also probably knows Wemby, but moving him there also makes sense. I just want to keep Dadiet unless he’s part of a must do deal.
It’s well known and widely reported that the Pelicans have been willing to trade Zion for a long time but no one wants him. 3 days ago I heard Tom Haberstroh suggest that with his recent play, the Pelicans might be able to trade Zion for…. Jimmy Butler.
The Bulls have been reported to be interested in the same Zion + Missi package. They’re offering Vucevic, Coby White, and Patrick Williams’ terrible contract. I’m down on KAT but he’s worth a lot more than that.
status coup news is for you…
tyt sports also has some nice vids…
although, actually pretty damn good for you for not knowing exactly who usa’s pink lady is…
forget those channels above…
bill belichick – hahahahahahahaha…
No-stress loss is an oxymoron as far as I am concerned.
Strat, I get what you’re saying about giving up on Dadiet too soon and/or early…….but the fact of the matter is that we’re not playing him anyway, and if that’s the case if we can get someone that we *will* play for him, we should do that. (Obviously whether or not he should have been Siberiad is a whole ‘nother conversation.)
You know who I’d really like to see a little bit more of who isn’t talked about much here? McCullar. I think there’s a (Hart-lite-like with possibly better defensive instincts) player in there, but again…….we’ll never know if he never gets any run. All of the players on the bench and never getting a minute anymore is very…….dare I say it?…….Thibsian.
McCullar is getting plenty of burn in the G League and doing well, from the looks of it. No complaints about their development plan; they are most certainly watching these guys and aware that some may be able to contribute. But clearly wins are important enough that Brown is going to do what works for a while. I just wish he could be more strategic about getting one guy some good minutes every game, like the short stint from Huk the other night. Like 10 minutes from Kolek in a non-Philly night.
Belichick might be re-thinking how he treated the members of the media who had Hall of Fame votes. With the weird new way the voting system is set up (where a given voter could only vote for three people, I think), it seems like what might have happened is that folks thought that Belichick was a shoo-in to get in and left it to others to actually vote for him. Kind of like……. “I didn’t vote for him. I thought *you* were going to vote for him.” “Nope, I didn’t vote for him. I thought *you* were going to vote for him.” And then not enough people voted for him. (Kind of like my Boy Scout hikes where everyone assumed that someone else was bringing certain snacks.) Karma?
most likely doogie a whole lot of football hof voters said fuck you bill, on to the next candidate…
kind of messed up situation, maybe, but still makes me smile to think mo is the only baseball hof’er to ever be unanimous…