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93 replies on “Knicks Morning News (2026.01.27)”
I don’t subscribe, but the beginning of Macri’s newsletter had this:
It feels like a good argument that almost any trade of KAT is addition by subtraction…
But it also feels like we can’t afford to ditch other core players to get rid of him. Though I don’t know what else Macri might have said about other lineups.
“addition by subtraction” is the exact phrase i used the other day in relation to getting rid of towns the key is that we can give up other players but not core *winning* players the guys i think we can afford to give up are mikhail yaboo clarks diawera huck dadier in almost any combination
In other words, Brunson surrounded by the right pieces still looks like what Brunson surrounded with the right pieces has always looked like.
But let’s keep banging our heads into the wall for KAT instead.
I think only E is a complete KAT stan…
Yeah, I’m more about trying to get the right deal to unload KAT. Maybe it doesn’t exist, and we get the equivalent of what ATL did for Trae. Then the question is whether we can make a deep playoff run with this roster, minus KAT. If we can’t, it’s probably worth enduring for now, and revisiting in the summer. Obviously, Tatum will be back, etc., so the East won’t be as relatively open as it seems this season. But I don’t want to hamstring us, either.
I went to Cleaning the Glass and filtered for lineups with Jalen Brunson and without any of New York’s poor defenders and/or young players (who are generally inconsistent defensively). That ruled out KAT, Clarkson, Yabu, and all of the first or second year players and two-way guys with the exception of Tyler Kolek, who I deemed a plus defender this season for this exercise.
That left us with 352 possessions – not a huge sample size but not statistically irrelevant either – and the results were as follows:
most common lineup data felonies:
1. call samples overwhelmingly noisy samples “not irrelevant”
2. datamining, quiet and loud
3. misunderstand bayesian updating (“i value the data when it conforms to my observations”)
4. dismiss all lineup data out of hand (inverse of 1 and 3)
5. Drawing conclusions on it because I got bored and already spent time looking it up
Question though.
Does trading KAT for parts and pieces potentially raise our regular season floor while lowering our playoff ceiling?
I’m thinking specifically the Detroit game last year when KAT completely took over and won us a game. Overall I thought KAT had an up and down playoff run but there were stretches where he was the one getting us buckets and rebounds and keeping us in games.
I guess I don’t fully trust a team where Brunson is the only clear star scorer. Mikal and OG don’t seems capable of “taking over” the same way Brunson and KAT can. We haven’t seen KAT do that much this season but maybe we should just hold the line, make some small bench moves to upgrade over Yabu and Clarkson and hope KAT figures it out by the playoffs?
And yes, two wins does a lot for my mental health, lol.
I’m not opposed to trading KAT, per say. And if we could get some good players for him in return, then I’m much more open to it. But the “addition by subtraction” idea seems dangerous. It might give us a regular season boost while capping our ceiling in the playoffs.
It would be a lot easier if KAT was just playing well.
I was referring to Leon when I said “let’s keep banging our heads into the wall for KAT”. He’s the only KAT stan that matters.
ive been beating the drum to get twons outta here but swifty does make some convincing arguments to the contrary per say
Those are valid points, Swifty. But I wouldn’t look at trading KAT as the last we thing we do. It creates the flexibility we need to keep building.
I don’t think a Jalen Brunson team needs a KAT-level scorer on it. Someone at Pascal Siakim or Norm Powell’s level would do just fine. Those types of guys wouldn’t be out of price range.
I think a realistic trade partner for KAT will have a defensive anchor center; needs the scoring punch and/or cares about star power; and has some desperation to be elevated or stay relevant (which doesn’t sound unlike Milwaukee. Zach Edey seems like the type of center alongside which KAT plays well).
Damn. It is I, the hit dog hollering.
Also I wouldn’t take “addition by subtraction” literally. We’re not a better team if we straight salary dump KAT. The idea is we’d be better if we get 2-3 players who aren’t as good as KAT. Ideally one of them can score, or be traded for someone who can.
Knicks get:
Giannis
Jrue
Duop Reath
Bucks get:
KAT
Deuce
Kolek
Two POR/MIL swaps returned
2026 WAS 1RP
Blazers get:
Bridges
Yabu
Dadiet
(Maybe Yabu gets shipped to a 4th team, idk.)
How many calf strains does Giannis need to have for us to forget about him?
If we replace Towns we need another scorer. I’m not at the stage where I fully trust either OG or Bridges to seemlessly step into the #2 scoring option or carry the offense when Brunson is out or resting.
love drew holiday but hes 35 years old the time to get him wouldve been three years ago definitely dont want to give up both duece and koleck that would be very dumb and yeah hubie the multiple calf strains thing is very bothersome and thats the case whether theyre fake or real (for different reasons)
Not saying I endorse it, but a framework that is legal and synthesizes some recent grumblings:
NYK gets: Giannis, Jrue
MIL gets: KAT, Deuce*, the WAS picks, their own 2028 and 2030 swap rights back from POR
POR gets: Mikal, Yabu
We’d drop down to 12 players, but with ~$1.4M in 2nd apron space I believe we could wait two weeks and then sign two vet-mins, though we might not be able to sign two guys with 2+ years of service time unless we kicked the can down the road with 10-days. It’d likely just be two of our two-way guys anyway though.
*Obviously I’d want to haggle over Deuce, and Dadiet + Clarkson works too.
I don’t see anything big happening now. I think they’ll try to move Yabu and wouldn’t have an issue with moving Clarkson if they had to, but the goal is likely to be an upgrade defensively and/or a backup PG if they don’t fully trust Kolek yet.
I don’t think Knicks management is nearly as manic depressive as fans and media depending on what happens over shorter periods.
If they have a disappointing season and/or playoff run THEN something big will happen in the off season. It will most likely be with Towns because they’ll also be in a better position pick wise to make a move like that. They must see the issues with the Brunson/Towns combo at this point.
I think they know they missed on Yabu/Clarkson (though imo Clarkson was obvious mistake going into the season) and the unexpected retirement of Brogdon means they knew they needed an experienced legitimate PG that could defend a liittle. So I think they are bascially going to do a reset of the pre season if they can.
KAT is polarizing because of the 3-way clash between talent, b-ball IQ, and off-court character. I guess you could put on-court antics in there as well.
I think it’s fair to assume that at age 30 he is what he is, and his ceiling has been reached. Wishing on additional development is a fool’s errand.
In this sense, it is Mike Brown who is the latest version of the fool, along with anyone who felt that Brown would “unlock” KAT in any significant way.
One needed only to listen to the recent KFS pod with Canis Hoopis scribe Thilo Latrell Widder to hear about how all of the issues we are having with KAT were similar to those he had in Minny, especially before they traded for Rudy Gobert and Ant-Man matured.
And one of those issues is that he greatly prefers being a C rather than a PF. Yet he had excellent chemistry with Gobert and probably could develop chemistry with Mitch and Huk if Brown prioritized that. However, KAT and Mitch have shared the court for only 191 minutes, the fewest of any rotation player. Contrast that with his last year with Minny, where he shared the floor with Gobert for 1,279 minutes (around half of his total minutes) and they were a +7.7 in the regular season and +8.8 in the playoffs. He also played some PF beyond that with Naz on the floor.
So if Leon keeps KAT past the deadline, which I am convinced is the case, then Brown needs to play lineups with him at PF way more than he currently is and use that smily charm to convince KAT to buy in to the PF role to a greater degree than he is right now. And it can’t be all Mitch at the C because of Mitch’s pt restrictions.
To me, this means that either Brown needs to commit more PT to Huk, or that Leon needs to swing a move for someone like Marvin Bagley III to fill that void. Frankly, I think that issue supercedes the need for a backup PG, but ideally both holes will be patched prior to the deadline, unless the FO is convinced that Huk can step up.
But if Brown gives in to KAT, or like Thibs, insists that he is best utilized as a full-time C, I think the team’s ceiling is lowered to “second round exit.”
maxy and edgy horrible yesterday against the hornets 15 points total of 5 of 23 shooting is not what we got when we played them doubt it was charlottes defense
giving up clarks and dadier over duece is a no brainer also if twons keeps playing this badly over the next three months hes going to be much harder to get rid of in the offseason
“Zach Edey seems like the type of center alongside which KAT plays well…”
I would disagree with this because Edey kind of lumbers and the league is full of uptempo teams with athletic wings who would be playing a lot of 5 on 3 against a KAT-Edey combo.
And that’s why I hope Brown tries to coach Huk up (barring a trade for a better alternative, of course.) Brown himself said that Huk’s “superpower” is his speed. He really runs the floor well for a big and gets back in transition better than most guys his size. I think there is stuff to mine in that configuration, so long as a couple of other starters are out there, or even Shamet and Deuce as your backcourt.
I meant possible second round exit, but definitely not finals.
And FWIW, I believe that all the trade talk and negative press is impacting the team, and specifically KAT and Mikal. If they are still around after the deadline, I think they will both breathe a sigh of relief and their play will improve.
Yeah, but then people are going to whine that KAT isn’t as productive overall at PF as he is at C ( I agree it’s likely he will not be).
He’s probably going to rebound less, drive less effectively because of less spacing with Mitch on the floor and once that happens it will be easier to take away his 3s.
The experiment with Gobert in Minny was fine on defense, but they didn’t also have a very weak link on the floor like Brunson.
IMO, Towns was not as effective on offense as his potential in Minny no matter what the data says, though he was more effective than I predicted at the time they added Gobert.
z is correct on two things here i am back to thinking we should keep huckporti around and its definitely true that if all this trade talk around twons and mikhail are part of their recent malaise things should look better in about a week if they are still here lets hope
“He’s probably going to rebound less, drive less effectively because of less spacing with Mitch on the floor and once that happens it will be easier to take away his 3s.”
his drives are effective now? it doesnt seem so
I know Dadiet hasn’t shown much so far, but I’m not so anxious to use him as filler in a trade. We need some young developmental blood on this team for the long term. I’ve seen enough flashes on defense to think there’s something to work with there, though obviously our main upside prospect is Diawara.
He draws some fouls and is effective at times, but whatever it is, it’s likely to get worse with another big man out there and less spacing.
“He draws some fouls and is effective at times, but whatever it is, it’s likely to get worse with another big man out there and less spacing.”
Strat, it doesn’t matter whether KAT’s individual stats are impacted or whether team offense is impacted. The only thing that matters is net rating.
I think that removing the burden of rim protection from KAT’s plate is worth anything we lose from him in his rebounding or scoring stats. It seems like that was proven in Minny.
I should also point out that Brunson is a space creator on his own, and if anything, having KAT on the perimeter more and setting screens for Brunson might actually open him up for more assisted 3’s.
That’s almost 4 games of possessions. Is there nothing that can be gleaned?
I agree to some degree, but then I’ll have to read 10K posts here and on Twitter of why KAT sucks. 🙂
I’m not even sure the NET rating will improve.
Is Mitch so much more effective than Hart that he makes up the difference, and more, if Towns’ own productively falls a bit?
I love Mitch. He has some hugely impactful games, but day to day imo Gobert is much better.
I don’t get who brown is fighting this so hard, especially when he started the season with Mitch in the starting lineup.
I mean, it does wreck the 5-out potential and cuts down on team speed. But in the end, Brown needs to be fluent in all these lineups because different ones will work against different opponents. We’ve even seen 3-guard lineups and the OG at center lineup be successful in certain situations.
It’s really on Brown to know when and how to use these different lineups, but also the players need to know that their roles will vary slightly depending on the situation (I don’t think that’s a lot to ask, KAT.)
Trying to get the optimal output from KAT( however difficult this appears to be), seems more likely to yield a positive effect than trading him mid-season, assuming a trade with positive upside can be had, and then having to integrate new player(s) into the system with 35+ games before the playoffs. Barring a Godfather opportunity, Leon is likely to work the margins.
That’s almost 4 games of possessions. Is there nothing that can be gleaned?
my short answer is pretty much no. the signal from ~175mins of a single 5 man lineups probably equivalent to extrapolating 3 point percentage from about 60 attempts. and that’s only if it’s one fully out-of-sample singular five man lineup. when you start fucking around with “let’s including tyler kolek because i’m calling him a good defender but exclude player y” you make it even worse, both because the sample is mixed and because you are almost surely quietly datamining (is this really the ONLY set of lineups you looked at). it’s probably closer to the equivalent of looking at ~5-40 three point attempts. there just is a massive amount of noise and p-hacking risk at play here.
“I agree to some degree, but then I’ll have to read 10K posts here and on Twitter of why KAT sucks. 🙂”
Aren’t you reading those now anyway?
“I’m not even sure the NET rating will improve.”
There’s a ton of evidence that it might, so we’ll never know unless we try.
“Is Mitch so much more effective than Hart that he makes up the difference, and more, if Towns’ own productively falls a bit?”
Believe it or not, you can play both. Hart has been great at adapting to whoever is out there with positive results, at least as far as I can see it.
“I love Mitch. He has some hugely impactful games, but day to day imo Gobert is much better.”
He’s not Gobert, but he is a much better rebounder and that mitigates some of the other stuff. And again, Huk is possibly a good complement there in other ways, particularly in transition.
I also like that Mitch has been asking for more lobs thrown his way. In this context, the KAT-Gobert lob connection was a real thing. I don’t understand why that can’t be a thing here.
KAT works for Jrue and Robert Williams straight up in the trade machine.
We’d really be relying heavily on Huk then, since Mitch-Rob will likely combine to form 1 healthy center’s worth of minutes. But–those minutes! I’d probably still do it (at worst we get cap relief when Williams comes off the books) but idk if Portland would –they could use the offense but they also have to start paying people soon.
portland also needs to locate scot henderson
KAT for RWIII-Jrue would be really selling low on KAT imho. I like the idea of RWIII but he is a terrible injury risk. Jrue is in decline now.
Robert Williams has been pretty healthy this year, no?
KAT for Jrue and Robert is definitely intriguing. Too bad Jrue is 35 but I guess he would play a back up role and not start?
“Robert Williams has been pretty healthy this year, no?”
His minutes are managed even more than Mitch’s. judging by their minutes averages, it would be a challenge to have a C out there for 48 minutes unless Huk was indeed deemed a viable option. And that IF IF IF they both stay healthy and available through the playoffs. If one of them goes down, it could be disastrous.
I wonder if new ownership in Minnesota would swap Deuce + $3m in cash for Donte. It saves them a ton of money and they get similar production. Deuce starting next to AE makes a lot of sense.
Wolves: Deuce + Cash
Bucks: KAT + Mikal + whatever picks we can send + swaps.
Knicks: Giannis, Bobby Portis and Donte.
With Mitch Mitching again, I think we need to retry the KAT-Mitch pairing. In addition to his defensive exploits, he’s looks much faster running up and down the court. One of the big issues with the double big lineup was how slow Mitch & KAT move on top of our already poor transition defense.
Playing KAT at C makes him less effective, but he’s still most likely better than Randle at PF. We generally thought Randle gave us a championship shot at PF, so KAT at the same position should give us a better championship shot.
One of the reasons I got behind the KAT trade was the option to move him to PF if the defense wasn’t working with him at C.
Thanks
I got behind it because we were in desperate need of a starting C if we wanted to have a meaningful year last year given all the questions about Mitch’s health and because IMO he’s a better player than Randle anyway. He could also play some PF to see how that worked. I have to admit though, Randle is probably playing as well as he ever played in NY and we are struggling to get the most out of Towns. When you throw DDV and a pick in, it’s hard to argue we won the deal even though we got the best player. He’s not performing at his best level either due to injury, use, trade rumors, noise, player combis etc..
“Wolves: Deuce + Cash
Bucks: KAT + Mikal + whatever picks we can send + swaps.
Knicks: Giannis, Bobby Portis and Donte”
man i hate to lose duece but if we can get giannis’ portiss and devincenzo back im totally in on that still also like hubies clippers versions
portiss is kind of exactly what we need a stretch 4/5 who is good from 3
Re: Brunson + 4 defenders
We have 3.5 years of data on Brunson, so we might as well use it.
On pbpstats, I filtered for Brunson On and a whole bunch of poor defenders Off.
Caveats:
+ I probably didn’t get all of the bad defenders
+ I probably excluded some players who could defend
+ There’s disagreement on some players’ defensive ability
+ No KAT & Randle means opps not playing starting units
+ Good defenders = better defense is unremarkable finding
Brunson On & No Other Filter:
– 117.33 points per 100 possessions
– 17,661 possessions
Brunson On + No Bad Defenders:
– 113.82 points per 100 possessions
– 3,459 possessions.
Other Notes:
(1) Looking through BK-Ref’s past season data, that would be good for around 10th every year.
(2) Offense is roughly the same in both samples, decimal places over 121 per 100.
(3) Randle On shows little difference on defense (0.2 per 100 better)
(4) Removing Mikal or Mitch minutes has minimal effect.
(5) Removing OG or iHart minutes makes defense 2pts worse
(6) Adding Towns minutes back in makes the defense 2.5pts worse
asa newel from the hawks anyone or even josh minot from boston newel has better size at 6-10/220 and has 17/7 per 36 with 55.8 fg% and 43.9 3fg%
ugh, time to get up and start the day…hmmmmm, should probably do so with a bit more enthusiasm…
taking a break from the KAT dilemma to learn some more about the younger dryas event/time period…turns out the tas tepeler region in turkey (where the gobleki tepe site is) was the culmination of some civilization’s (around 9.6k bce) knowledge and influence…they had already domesticated grains (that wasn’t supposed to happen for another 1,000 or so years)…
so weird, no metal tools, no pottery, no wheel, no writing system, yet they executed a massive construction project using advanced astronomical, mathematical techniques…over a period of like 1,500 years…extraordinary…
anyways, it looks like the younger dryas event caused some very well developed civilization(s) to build a bunch of “facilities” across the anatolian hills in turkey…so, finding out some more about it…
EB, I’m not sure what you are trying to demonstrate here that isn’t either patently obvious or ultimately meaningful. There is so much noise that it is literally impossible to filter out anything. Most importantly, the efficacy of a given lineup will vary with so many factors, such as the particular opposing lineups on the floor. Unless you are assuming that the opponent counters with the optimal counter-lineup given the personnel they have, meaning that they are perfectly reactive over the course of a long season, I don’t think you can come away with anything meaningful, especially when it comes to playoff basketball where these things really matter.
lmao
My girlfriend bought me an Apple watch for Christmas. Now that I have a lot of data on my cardio health, blood oxygen, diet (hooked it up to a another health app) etc… I realize I’m in a lot worse shape than I thought.
I’m trying to keep my stress to a minimum. 😉
If we go 4:0 this week and wake up Monday morning on a 6 game winning streak with Washington Wizards next on schedule, – this whole Mikal/KAT/team drama goes away quickly.
I’m convinced Leon is not trading KAT for 2-3 pieces that may be a better fit with Brunson. Giannis or we ridin as is.
I’m providing a larger sample of the Macri stats cited above. It’s just data. I don’t really want to conclude anything from it. Up to the reader what to conclude or not conclude.
Theoretically, the conclusion you’d be wanting to sis that we should dump KAT because our defense is much better with 4 defenders while our offense is just as effective. If we were being scientific about it, we wouldn’t conclude this but consider it evidence and design a new study to explore it further and control for more factors.
But the biggest takeaway is that I wasted my lunchbreak.
Most of this is covered in the Caveats section.
I was originally going to include the Randle, Mitch, & Mikal numbers to corroborate the noisiness of the data. I have more confidence that Randle is a lousy defender than the data showing us that Randle is secretly an average to good defender. Guess I deleted the explanation at some point.
oh great now you guys have to decide whether or not you want to believe that strat has a girlfriend too 🙂 personally speaking i believe that he does as he seems to be a good guy
randall has a drtg of 113.7 not great but certainly not horrific anunobies drtg is 115.1
In the link I provided, you can filter by playoffs. Brunson ON + No Other Filter comes out 5 points per 100 better than excluding the bad defenders. So again, it’s probably not great data.
Here’s the link again with the filters I used still on:
Link
Agree. You don’t trade 5 picks for Mikal and then trade for KAT only to trade them away for some players who might “fit” better with Brunson.
Leon will either swing big for Giannis (and Holiday, Portis, etc) or stay pat with some small moves to fix the Yabu and Clarkson signings.
I’m very hesitant to pull the trigger on a Giannis trade. Even if you want to speculate that the calf strain stuff is just him not wanting to play right now, he does not have a good injury history recently and his game is SO dependent on his athleticism.
oh my goodness strat, you have to get one of the body mass indicator measuring scales…
it separates out your muscle/bone/fat percentages…also can tell you type of fat…
scarier yet it’ll show your metabolic age…when i first got the thing my metabolic age was six years above my real age…huge wake up call…had to stop eating myself to death…
EB I get all that, but the bottom line is that KAT and Brunson are on the floor together for like 60% of their minutes. And 3 of the 5 5-man lineups with the highest net rating have both KAT and Brunson on the floor, and every one of them has Towns out there. The lest positive of those 5 is our most common starting lineup, but since that lineup is playing a lot against other team’s starters, one would expect that to be the case.
But the thing that stands out in looking at the lineup data is how much of an impact Deuce seems to make. The only 5-man lineups with Deuce that don’t have positive ratings are those where Deuce and Clarkson are out there without a PG, or interestingly, where Deuce replaces Hart with the rest of the usual starting lineup.
It’s very interesting in that the one lineup that’s not so great is the one I’ve been advocating since last year. So I was either wrong or we need more data. I think it was strong last year.
I’m one of those guys that doesn’t mind small samples as long as they support some theoretical positive or negative I feel strongly about. As a gambler, I know I’m never going to be right 100% of the time. I can live with a small sample misleading me from time to time as long as I am right more often than wrong and one of the few to have that insight.
Nothing in the lineup data shows the KAT hate in any real form. It shows JB to be the worse defender and it’s not really even close.
And again, KAT played on the best defense in the association two years ago.
And yes, Deuce is a major factor in said lineup data. It makes him look very valuable.
These are just typical mid-season internet mobs forming, with their attendant “hatreds” and “pick-a-sides.” Best to see it as that and adjust accordingly.
If Mike Brown can’t get the best out of Karl-Anthony Towns, it’s time to move on. He’s entirely dispensable. This is and will always be a players and stars league.
duece (and maybe also anunobie) are our players “who stir the drink” when they play well we win
In the spirit of open and friendly discussion, Deuce for Hart — while it seems right — has always been wrong. The move has always been Deuce for Bridges. It still is.
If they flip-flopped those two and played KAT and Mitch together more they’d be way better.
Hey Knicks 2025, can you explain why you now go out of your way to misspell names in nearly every post about players? Is it all because you are annoyed at the whole Markaten and Burps stuff? Or are you just hellbent on being the KB resident irritant?
In terms of staying the course and not panicking, the starting lineup has played 168 minutes together, easily the most of any Knick five-man, and has a DRat of 113.8.
That’s certainly not cause to pop the champagne, but it would rank 11th in the league for the season. The defense tends to fray and unravel *after* the starters’ minutes are played. In part, that’s because Clarkson was playing serious rotation minutes, and he’s a positively dreadful defender. That no longer appears to be a thing.
Two-mans with Brunson and Clarkson have a DRat of 119.7 in 363 minutes. That’s unplayable.
And to put the final cherry on it, the aproned world has tanked the market for people like KAT, as we see in the Trae Young trade and Ja Morant non-trade. (*) Dumping him now would be like dumping equities in February 2009.
(*) The Anthony Davis market isn’t exactly booming, either for that matter.
When Deuce and Bridges are on the floor together they are +10. With Deuce, Brunson and Bridges, they are +14. The most common 5-man lineup involving Deuce is KAT-Bridges-Deuce-Brunson-Hart, and that lineup is +20. Swap in Mitch for KAT and it is still at +20. But swap OG for Hart and it goes down to 0.0.
Interestingly, Deuce is a positive in every 2-man combo, and particularly with any of the starters. The worst 2-man combo with Deuce and any starter is Deuce-KAT combo, and that is still overall a +7.9. The starters he works best with are Brunson and Mikal.
The bottom line is that he is fucking awesome no matter who he plays with, except Clarkson, and even that is at +4.3.
No one is going to convince me that Mikal shouldn’t start and isn’t a key part of this team. Before it’s over, it may be down to me and his mother supporting him, but knowing me, I’m going to hold out longer than his mother. 😉
hi zman hope youre having a fantastic (albeit cold) day its not that im annoyed at the “whole Markaten and Burps stuff” as you put it its more like an if you cant beat em join em kind of thing it seems like most of you think its fun/funny to spell players names incorrectly even though you actually know how to spell them (in fact its actually been *stated* that you guys think its fun/funny to do so; i know that the markaten thing is an homage to clyde but not sure why the burps thing came around although i do know what player it represents) so i was just trying to fit in i dont understand why its irritating if i do it to fit in but somehow not irritating at all if everyone else does it so i guess thats the best explanation ive got for whatever its worth hope it helps
I would imagine the coaching staff is fed lineup and player data constantly…
it must be a real challenge to synergize a theory of play with objective data…otherwise why not just chase what statistically works…
its not so much that mikhai necessarily *shouldnt* start it might be easier to process if you think of him as our supersub off the bench like a ginobli type (obviously not as good but you get my point) having duece as a starter and mikhail as our first guy off the bench (instead of yaboo) could be powerful
2022-23 and 2023-24, Timberwolves, regular seasons:
KAT ON, Rudy OFF — 1026 minutes, DRat 112.69. Seventh best overall if for whole season in ’23; sixth best in ’24.
ORat and DRat both shift down roughly 5 with Rudy on, KAT off, so same net rating.
Rudy’s a death star, no question, but the Wolves defenses were good to excellent even with him off and KAT on.
Seems like E and I agree that KAT and Mitch should be on the floor together more than they are, and KAT and Huk as well.
Where we probably don’t agree is the magnitude of KAT’s detrimental impact on both ends for a guy with his salary cap hit, no matter who he is on the floor with, or who is coaching. He is a very low-IQ player who commits very loud and obvious mistakes on both ends, yet in your book, he can’t fail, he can only be failed.
No other team fears KAT and all of his superpowers. If anything, the smart teams with great coaches lick their chops when they see him out there.
“…so i was just trying to fit in…”
And failing. I would advise trying to just being a straight-up guy and see how that works. Use Brian and Alan as your role models. I bet you’d be much more universally liked and respected, if that matters at all. If it doesn’t, then don’t duck behind pretense like “I’m just trying to fit in.” Just own being an irritant for your own amusement.
And note, E, I am not in the “addition by subtraction” camp. I wouldn;t deal KAT unless it’s for a clear win (meaning really good players or really good picks, whether directly or in a more complicated multi-team scenario.)
That’s because they didn’t have Brunson on the perimeter getting attacked also. It’s rough to have a good defense if you have holes inside and outside.
2024-25, 2025-26 Regular Season, NY Knicks:
Brunson and Towns Both ON: 2232 minutes, DRat 118.6, Net Rat +4.17
Brunson ON, Towns OFF: 1026 minutes, DRat 116.49, Net Rat +5.82
Towns ON, Brunson OFF: 934 minutes, DRat 109.74, Net Rat +10.59.
In the playoffs last year, the difference was even more stark:
Brunson ON, Towns OFF: 187 minutes, DRat 116.62, Net Rat +3.49
Towns ON, Brunson OFF: 146 minutes, DRat 100.0, Net Rat +9.71.
The Knicks defense with KAT, without JB would be third overall this year, second last year. Their net rating would be second in both years. In 1026 minutes, the Knicks with KAT, without JB, have essentially been the best team in basketball, at worst a very close second to the Thunder.
The Knicks’ 100 DRat in the 2025 playoffs with KAT on and JB off would have led the league by a full seven points per 100 possessions. Their ne rating was better than the champion Thunder’s.
So the numbers have to be sliced and diced upsides and downsides, backwards and forwards, just to get JB playing on tolerable defenses. No such thing is remotely necessary for KAT.
These are obviously compelling numbers worthy of a lot of thought, and I’d hope they’d be getting that thought by the Knicks front office.
We *know* KAT can play on excellent defenses. We do not know that about JB, and a lot of evidence points to the fact that he can’t. They’re clearly not going to move JB because of any “fit” issues, but in point of fact, it very much looks like, to the degree the “fit” doesn’t work, KAT isn’t the cause.
I’d probably limit it to a player or combination of players that makes us better now either based on ability or because they fit better. Picks would be gravy, but unless we are better now we’d have to use them for another trade given we are in win now mode.
Casual half-eye-test statement because I’ve been slaving away with only half of one eye toward the discussion, but it feels like I keep seeing Hart raising the bar for many/most of the combo comparisons being discussed. Yet those feel like throw-aways to other points, like Deuce is great or KAT’s not as bad as we think (or is worse).
And I am delighted to find out that when Doogie actually tries to fit in, he manages to become even more annoying.
I’ve been of the opinion that Brunson is the bigger problem also, but he’s getting a free pass on defense because of the hype and his ability to close games. IMO his overall value is overrated. That said, since he’s the “star” I think there is a zero chance he’s going to get traded. So the alternative becomes how can we retain Brunson, still have a high enough level defense to contend witth the best teams and still have a potent offense. That’s why KAT keeps coming up. Since he’s also playing a bit subpar now (with varyng opinions as to why), it’s much easier to focus on KAT and try to surround Brunson with 4 plus defenders.
Playoff defense in 2023, even though they led the NBA, was 13 worse/100 with JB on. For his three aggregate playoff years with the Knicks his on-off playoff defensive rating is -8.2.
Problem is, their playoff offense stinks relatively worse without him on the floor.
A “Jalen Brunson team” is one that is poor on defense and tries to outscore their opponents, often successfully. Karl-Anthony Towns has been thrown into that mix, making the offense even better — but the defensive issues that trail Jalen Brunson everywhere, regardless of context, persist.
I frankly doubt that this is really a winning formula — which is why they’ve continuously come up short. I was pretty consistently on the “Yes, he’s a tentpole” side of the equation, but I’m not sure I’m there anymore.
I, too, am convinced that Leon won’t do anything smart.
It’s been more than 2 years since he has.
EB it’s clear you’re just grinding and not trying to sell a newsletter or promote some random prior, so this isn’t meant to contravene your posting.
Theoretically, the conclusion you’d be wanting to sis that we should dump KAT because our defense is much better with 4 defenders while our offense is just as effective.
i’m a big fan of getting creative to make bigger sample sizes (how else could tnfh have pulled?). but it’s fraught. for example the 3.5 years you posted only included 28 “good defender only” minutes from 22-23 and 2351 “bad defender minutes,” during which they were only +2.2. but they were actually +3.9 with jalen off that year. this is a compositional bias because instead of asking “are jalen offenses pareto better with four good defenders irrespective of their offense” we could instead be unintentionally asking “were the bad nyk defenders who played with jalen in 22-23 on average worse players than the bad defenders in other years?” this is an especially bad mistake if we’re going to try to use it to draw conclusions about a player who had been here only during the latter sample.
i’m not saying that this kills the hypothesis that it’s a good idea to stick jalen with defenders, which surely is right in most cases. i know the delta mostly holds up even if you eliminate 2022-23 from your run. but then the sample size gets smaller and the data suddenly looks no more compelling than competing hypotheses. for example, this one: zero bad defenders is irrelevant; the key is to play jalen with a great defender who doesn’t kill you on offense like anunoby (+8.0 3215 mins witj jalen vs +2.8 without jalen 3190 mins). in fact if you look at just the 2.5 years with OG on they are +8 whether they have zero of your bad defenders or at least one bad defender. it is only with a bad defender and no OG that they drop to +1.0 (2303 mins).
an obvious counter to applying this to kat is that since kat’s arrival they have been +1.8 with jalen on and kat off (1447 min), +4.2 (2232 mins) with both on and +8.1 with kat on and jalen off (1614mins). and no, i don’t believe this means that kat is better or they ought to trade jalen. more that the lineup data will inherently push you and pull you and beg you to dance for your dinner. i actually think it’s pretty obvious that both jalen/randle and jalen/kat were far from ideal pairings vs a more defensive-oriented player and the lineup data would have to scream in my fact to change my mind much.
It should also be noted that the alleged seamless fit between Jalen Brunson and Isaiah Hartenstein completely fell apart in the two playoff years they were both Knicks, in which they played 497 minutes together, to a flat net rating, and a defensive rating of 121.3.
lol…that’s actually fair. One can argue that he may be due…
It’s a preposterous idea.
Now, with that said, adding Timelord to KAT and Mitch sounds actually like kind of an excellent idea.
Brunson slander should not be tolerated…
To me that supports the visual and statistical evidence that OG is a great defender. He probably disappears on offense some of the time because he’s so exhausted covering for Brunson and KAT. 😉
So maybe if we get KAT out of the equation and add a defender it will help OG’s offense too. 😉
JK, any chance you were at Blue Note tonight to see Marcus King, MonoNeon, Chris Dave et al? Man, that was good.