Knicks Morning News (2025.05.07)

101 replies on “Knicks Morning News (2025.05.07)”

How the hell did the wolves manage to lose to a warriors team without Steph?

i am guessing because hield had 24 jimmy had 20 and even dray had 18 more than made up for it plus steph had 13 before leaving it counts

lol we are double digit underdogs tonight.
I mean i totally get it, but the last 2 games these two teams have played both went to overtime.
The first loss was literally the first game this current iteration of Knicks played together.

The second loss had Precious playing 33 minutes (worst plus-minus on the team at -37) and no OG.

Third game was a 2 possession game midway through 4th Q.

TBH I am really surprised at the spread. I am not a bettor, but KP is clearly not himself even if he plays, and is Hauser even an option with his ankle? Full strength Celtics (especially KP) probably deserves this level of deference, but I’m not sure a Celtics team with a 60% KP and a 70% Jaylen Brown does…

Meanwhile – I see Luke Kornet made ZERO 3’s this year on only 3 3PA. What in the world happened to his shot? His first 2 years (as a Knick) he shot 36% on almost 300 3PA.

Things are shaping up quite nicely for the Knickerbockers.

The way these playoffs have gone, I expect the Knicks to race out to a 30 point lead and eventually lose when Hart misses 2 FTs up 2 with 3 seconds left and Tatum hits a half court bank shot to win it.

Reasons for optimism tonight:

* KAT can play better
* Mikal can shoot better
* We can do better at the free throw line
* Jaylen Brown doesn’t look right, and KP doesn’t look right
* It’s unclear if Mazzulla is actually a good coach or just a guy with the perfect basketball roster (when healthy)
* Boston’s best players are kinda dumb, basketball-wise

Reasons to worry:

* Mazzulla has now seen Thibs’ adjustment for this series, and he’s had 48 hours to devise a counter. Is Thibs capable of adjusting a second time in one series?
* While some of those missed Boston threes were the result of Wingstop closing in and making them rush, some were just wide-open misses. If they shoot the way they normally do and we continue to leave guys open like that, we’re in big trouble.
* The Celtics will be mad and determined to show that Game 1 was a fluke.
* KAT’s career playoff history is checkered at best, and maybe he just stays passive while Jalen dominates the ball.
* Between Mitch’s hands, his free throw woes, Mazzulla committing to Hack-A-Mitch, and Payne and Shamet disappearing, we might at some point basically be playing a six-man rotation.

I would love to see us win again and put them completely on their heels. But even with their injury issues, this is an awfully good team, who will be incredibly motivated.

I think we can mitigate Hack-A-Mitch by playing him in the beginning of quarters as opposed to the end of quarters. I am sure Thibs does not want to mess with his substitution pattern, but if Mitch plays the first 4-6 minutes of the 2nd and 4th, then hacking him only puts the Celts into the penalty early in the period…

Betting public’s been listening to the media narrative about all the “wide open” threes Boston missed.

9 times out of 10 a game like tonight is an easy win for the home team but our whole theme this spring is going to be making this the other time. I would normally write this game off but I’m not so sure. Brown is present but not himself. Porzingis is fucked. And now we have confidence. All we need is Jrue’s hamstring to act up again and this series is ours.

Knicks odds to win series went down to +250.

With Cleveland on the ropes and even OKC down 1, the puncher’s chance is surprisingly alive and well.

What a world.

I’m not too worried about hack-a-Mitch, Frank. Thibs’ willingness to go to Precious was refreshing. I don’t think Mitch is much better than him at this point.

I’m mostly concerned if we can continue running this switch-heavy defense or if it’s just going to put KAT in foul trouble all the time. This is really not a good series for KAT. The whole idea that we matched up well with Boston went out the window when we acquired him. I’d rather have Randle and Donte right now and play small and switch heavy. Although I’d probably want KAT against almost anyone else.

We’re gonna need some sweet Pags action to counteract Hubert’s jinxy post ASAP.

Tonight is huge and I like our odds.

We found something in the Detroit series or maybe PJ Tucker really is the horse whisperer we needed. So I guess we’ll have to pick up his contract for next season to be the player coach on the bench.

Yeah it is wild that suddenly our chances of winning it all have gone up quite a but. I still think OKC will come out on top but, then again, maybe they’re just a great regular season team and are no match for Jokic?

Seeing Boston, Cleveland and OKC go down in these series (especially Cleveland) really got me thinking about how there seems to be an increase in the outcomes of NBA playoff series now in this new era of the game.

Old school fans will say the game is softer and there is some truth to that but the game is played at faster pace and, because of that, there are more injuries to players. So health seems to be much bigger factor as a team can rack up 60 wins in the regular season but if a key player is hurt in the playoffs, it doesn’t matter. Then you throw in the 3 point variance, which is a real thing, and it seems there’s more of a chance of upsets now than even 10 years ago.

Back in the day once the NBA made the first round 7 games instead of 5, you rarely saw upsets in the first round and, in the second round, usually the team that had 5 or 10 more regular season wins would win that round too. But now, not so much.

Or maybe OKC and Boston crush us and Denver. But Cleveland is fucked.

Do teams jockey 82 games for home court advantage just for the extra game of ticket revenue, or is there actual data that suggests homecourt gives an in-game advantage in the playoffs?

As Alan alluded to, game 2 is where the series turns into a chess match given that we stole game 1. Not only does Thibs need to win this chess match, but guys need to execute perfectly. Which means no Hart jump passes, no KAT reaches on perimeter defense, and no one but Thibs barking at the refs. Time to lock in and steal game 2. Much like Indy is doing, we have to take advantage of our opponent being somewhat hobbled.

Go Knicks

Thibs’ willingness to go to Precious was refreshing. I don’t think Mitch is much better than him at this point.

So I did not watch a lot of the third quarter comeback, but wasn’t Mitch on the floor when that happened or for some of it?

I think Mitch is obviously better defensively but maybe if we are switching more on defense, Precious is more useful, at least in a limited minutes capacity to give KAT a break?

I do like the idea of playing Mitch earlier so they either have to get into the penalty earlier or not go to hack a mitch.

Would be sweet, though, if they did hack a Mitch one game and he actually just made the free throws. I don’t get how he can be THIS bad at shooting them.

I think some of Mitch’s free throw issues are psychological. It’s got to be extra mental pressure to know the other team deliberately put you on the line to shoot free throws. It’s not like he’d be great if he was unstressed, but I think he’d be better.

doogie hauser very unlikely to play tonite

it is wild that suddenly our chances of winning it all have gone up quite a but.

It’s just the math of BOS and especially CLE (suddenly +1000) changing so much due to injury. It lowered everyone’s odds. We’re still 7th out of the 8 remaining teams. Even a team that just went 0-2 at home still has much better odds. We’re going to need Indiana’s injury luck to advance, but that looks like it’s in play.

Is Kenny Atkinson still a good coach?

Mitch was +13 in game 1, but it feels like his missed free throws could have cost us the game. Precious may actually be a better option, but it’s not like he’s good from the line either. It’s a tough call for Thibs. KP looking so anemic is a big break for us.

Cleveland has been crippled by injuries. I wouldn’t blame that on Atkinson.

Garland and Mobley are Cleveland’s equivalent of Towns & OG. If those guys went down for us we’d be dead on arrival. But Cleveland’s still got a shot largely bc Atkinson spent the whole year developing his bench for exactly this. So yeah, I’d say he’s still a good coach.

kp looking anemic is kind of an interesting use of words since he has history of anemia

My one deeply held wish is that this board eventually stops using gambling odds as information about the team.

Atkinson spent the whole year developing his bench for exactly this.

Their bench players were atrocious last night. The only guy who played well was Sam Merrill.

My one deeply held wish is that this board eventually stops using gambling odds as information about the team.

LOL, right?

and it seems there’s more of a chance of upsets now than even 10 years ago.

7 out of 8 first round matchups have been won by the favorite team this year. Both 1 seeds swept. All top 4 seeds in the East advanced.

2nd round off to a crazy start but its just one game + Cleveland who is down 2 all-stars due to a big toe and a sprained ankle and they still should have won the game.

I do nave a problem with this generation of players who have been brainwashed that they have to be near 100% to play. Playing hurt is a learned skill and it’s lacking in today’s sports. We saw it with OG when he tried to come back for game 7 last year. It was clear that it was his first time that he tried to play hurt in his career.

Zero chance a 90s 25yr old player would have missed the 2nd playoff game down 1:0 due to a sprained left toe. Wrap it up, take some pain killers, get out there and let adrenaline take over.

I remember Larry Johnson taking cortisol shots in his spine before every playoff game. Michael Jordan played with a broken foot, risked career threatning injury against Boston and gave them 63.

Can we talk about how lucky Indiana has been? They have a good but not great team – good depth and some good scrappy young players and a mezzanine-level star in Halliburton. But we were clearly the better team last year until our players arms and legs started falling off, and the same seems to be happening this year with Cleveland. But commentators already talk about last year like they were just the better and deeper team than us – history is written by the winners etc. and if they beat the Cavs as now seems very possible, the read on them will be ‘back to back conference finalists’ – which, sure but not, like, really…

My one deeply held wish is that this board eventually stops using gambling odds as information about the team.

The consensus view of all gamblers is ridiculously sharp. Otherwise all those people that think they are smarter wouldn’t be broke all the time. 😉

Seriously, it takes some very special insights to be smarter than the odds line. The gambling odds ARE sometimes wrong about the probabilities, but they are not significantly wrong very often.

My guess is the line is where it is because Boston is the better team, they are home, they are in a must win situation and they can’t play much worse than they did in game 1.

I think the line for game 1 was 9 1/2.

To the coaches that capped their players at 30 mins to keep them healthy for the playoffs—

how’s it goink?

Cool article by Fred Katz – who I really miss on the beat, as his replacement is just not good – about Towns switching on P&Rs. It includes a hilarious video of OG pushing him towards the right assignment on one play.

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6338392/2025/05/07/knicks-switching-celtics-nba-playoffs/?source=emp_shared_article

Their bench players were atrocious last night. The only guy who played well was Sam Merrill.

Oh, they had a bad game? Never mind. Let’s write them off.

8 hours from game time and no one has used the overused term “house money” yet?

I expect us to lose tonight, but just don’t want a start to finish blowout.

Well, now that the dust has settled, I think it’s very clear that this was always likely to be us losing in 5 and our one win happened to be in Game 1. We needed a perfect storm of events — historically bad shooting from them, great 3pt shooting from us, uncharacteristically feckless offense from them, and multiple unplanned injuries that exacerbated the impact of the first half hack-a-mitch strategy to barely win in OT.

We won’t have the benefit of those factors today, so this is a clear 30-40 point loss as Mazzulla will adjust, Thibs won’t, their shooters will hit some of the 30+ wide open threes they were able to generate at will, and our offense remains as ineffective against them as ever.

Then we lose games 3 and 4 because they’re a great road team and we suck at home, and it’s over in five right on schedule.

The big storyline will end up being how Towns was unplayable in our biggest playoff moment, which thwarts our one ray of hope for the future, flipping him for Giannis somehow.

psst — you’re welcome, ess-dog

Oh, they had a bad game? Never mind. Let’s write them off.

*two bad games. One more and we kinda can write them off

My guess is the line is where it is because Boston is the better team, they are home, they are in a must win situation and they can’t play much worse than they did in game 1.

And you’d be guessing wrong. Vegas isn’t predicting that Boston will beat us by ~10 points, it’s predicting that that’s what gamblers think and a line of -10.5 will get an approximately even amount of money bet on either side of it. Casinos don’t lose extra money if Boston actually wins by 1 or by 30.

Cool article by Fred Katz – who I really miss on the beat, as his replacement is just not good

I don’t think Edwards III is not good; I mostly think he’s just non cut from the same cloth, as in it’s very apparent that he doesn’t know how to charm the New York scene as Vorkunov and Katz used to, and so looks very distant from the team and the general feel about Knicks things.

He’s doing his task, he’s not doing what we expect from it.

Mazzulla has now seen Thibs’ adjustment for this series, and he’s had 48 hours to devise a counter. Is Thibs capable of adjusting a second time in one series?

Mazzulla didn’t need 48 hours. He adjusted in 48 seconds, and it worked.

First he took advantage of the switching by consistently getting Brown or Tatum to drive on Towns. This took KAT out of the games with fouls. Then he ruthlessly sent Mitch to the line. This broke our offense.

That was a masterful response to a tactic he was clearly expecting. The Celtics were up 16 at halftime and 20 early in the second half.

And then they went away from it in the second half. No one knows why.

So even though we got the win, it’s actually incumbent on us to make the adjustment now. Or at least be prepared to.

I don’t think Edwards III is not good; I mostly think he’s just non cut from the same cloth, as in it’s very apparent that he doesn’t know how to charm the New York scene as Vorkunov and Katz used to, and so looks very distant from the team and the general feel about Knicks things.

He’s doing his task, he’s not doing what we expect from it.

I just don’t find him insightful at all, which is what I think The Athletic tries to offer in its beat writers (it’s kind of the same problem that their coverage of the Yankees have after Lindsey Adler left). His writing is just not distinctive, and his insights are pretty basic. Katz has a much better ability to explain the game in funny and interesting ways, and to pick up on things that nobody else sees.

Oh no don’t get me wrong, Katz is just way better, but I think he was too good for our own good.

If you read other The Athletic beat writers, they’re way more of Edwards III’s ilk than Katz’s, that’s all.

Also, I think Katz manages to write to his audience better. You can say “KAT is slow and processes things slowly on D,” but that might get a fan all defensive and think “Well yeah, but he’s really good at threes!”

Katz, on the other hand, describes that as “his floppy size 20 shoes,” which makes me grin and think, “Yeah, he sure is slow and processes things slowly on D.”

*two bad games. One more and we kinda can write them off

I meant the players, Pags. Are you going to write Ty Jerome off as a player if he has another bad game?

The Cavs are currently missing Garland, Mobley, and Hunter with sprains. Barring a medical miracle, they’re already written off.

Oh no don’t get me wrong, Katz is just way better, but I think he was too good for our own good.

Thankfully he seems to be incapable of leaving the Knicks behind (and continues with his podcast).

Oof.

FROM SHAMS:

The Warriors expect Stephen Curry to miss at least one week with the Grade 1 left hamstring strain, sources tell ESPN. An exact return will be based on how their All-NBA guard responds to rehab with his first muscle strain.

this was always likely to be us losing in 5 and our one win happened to be in Game 1. We needed a perfect storm of events — historically bad shooting from them,

StatMuse notes that the Celtics played in 36 games with a three-point percentage below 35.0 this season.

Mr. Doom aka Grim aka Pags, – your Celtics shot below league average in 43% of the games this season. They’re just a volume shooting team that goes through hot streaks and banks on the “variance” to lead to a win exactly like a finance team of investors banks on compound interest. Mazzulla = Warren Buffet

Problem is that not all threes offer the same interest dividend. Each three has its own percentage depending on multiple factors and step back off the dribble threes that are rushed and contested end up offering negative interest return over alternative investments.

Keep shooting those Boston and then try to figure out why your math is not mathing. Mazzulla only tool is the hammer and everything looks like a nail.

Here is a prediction: Their sweet spot is ~ 40 @ higher quality that come off penetration, transition and offensive rebounds. If they shoot over 55 threes with majority of them off dribble, step back, side step, 1v1 types over KAT, JB, Precious and Mitch, – Knicks will be in the game at the end again.

That’s actually reasonably good news for the Warriors.

In the interests of not piling on I will just say that I miss when Katz was our full-time beat guy and consider his Knicks related pieces the only must-reads at The Athletic right now. No one else can produce these bangers:

The five-time All-Star defended a screener on 28 pick-and-rolls. He switched on 13 of them, tying his career high, which came during a historic 2020 banger against the Sacramento Kings. How could any true basketball romantic forget the breathtaking evening half a decade ago when a middling Sacramento squad downed the 19-win Timberwolves?

There’s every reason to expect a blowout tonight, so I’m just hoping we have a game in the 4th quarter. FWIW, I can’t get on board with the idea that Precious is an adequate Mitch replacement. He actually does theoretically bring a switchability to this matchup that could be useful in very short stretches, but what we give up on the boards and offensively is just too much.

So yeah, dare them to soak up fouls early in quarters. Incorporating more switching has always made sense, and while I’m not sure why we kept it in the vault for 88 games, better late than never. It definitely seems like our best bet against a somewhat compromised Celtics team (if Brown in particular wants to try to exploit a switch, have at it).

The Warriors expect Stephen Curry to miss at least one week with the Grade 1 left hamstring strain, sources tell ESPN. An exact return will be based on how their All-NBA guard responds to rehab with his first muscle strain.

I didn’t know they were playing against Indiana

Incorporating more switching has always made sense, and while I’m not sure why we kept it in the vault for 88 games, better late than never. It definitely seems like our best bet against a somewhat compromised Celtics team (if Brown in particular wants to try to exploit a switch, have at it).

Spot on. I would go even further and give Brown the Josh Hart treatment. Back off him and dare him to shoot 15 threes off the dribble in 2nd half when he’s tired and has zero lift on his shot.

The main thing that gives me pause about Game 1 is the alleged stats on “wide open” 3s the Boston Celtics missed. I haven’t gotten back to watch, but two factors how many were truly wide open (I don’t recall that many, watching the game live), and how many of those wide open 3s were taken by Jaylen Brown who actually shot worse than Josh Hart from three this season, or Jrue Holiday (who shot worse from three than Mikhal Bridges this season)….I think a key factor is WHO is getting those wide open 3s.

If it’s not Tatum, or Pritchard or Hauser or Derrick White or Porzingis WIDE OPEN… I think we can live with that, and have to hope we don’t get killed by the others from three. Last game they were without 2 of those 5 for large stretches. Porzingis if he plays and is healthy will be a problem….

I kinda love that Thibs held something back for 88 games.

I also seem to recall that the combination of Precious and OG have a special defensive synergy, even going back to Toronto. Here’s some wowy numbers with the Knicks that support that idea

Precious has been way out of the rotation but if he emerges from that and gives key minutes, it wouldn’t be the first time in his Knicks career he’s done it.

StatMuse notes that the Celtics played in 36 games with a three-point percentage below 35.0 this season.

The question should be, “how many games this year did the Celtics shoot below 25%” The answer is four. All of those times were on smaller samples than the 60 they shot on Monday, and three of the four came against the two best defensive teams in the league. This was about a bottom 5% shooting outcome for them, and every single miss was necessary for us to win.

You do realize that if they’d shot 35% they’d have won by 15, right?

Mr. Doom aka Grim aka Pags, – your Celtics shot below league average in 43% of the games this season. They’re just a volume shooting team that goes through hot streaks and banks on the “variance” to lead to a win exactly like a finance team of investors banks on compound interest. Mazzulla = Warren Buffet

The problem here is that the expected outcome when they shoot league average is blowing us out. When they shoot below league average the expectation is that they still beat us handily. We required arguably the worst shooting performance of all time plus injuries to two rotation players to barely win.

If they are shooting 55 threes they will almost always have more than 20 makes and beat us by 25+ points.

Random observations on the conversation:

1. Thibs didn’t “save” anything for 88 games, anymore than he “funneled” three-point shooters to certain spots on the floor BITD. Let’s dispense.

2. Oddsmakers setting odds such that there will be roughly the same amount of buy and sell interest at the number is no different conceptually than market makers throwing out bids and asks on the SPY. The market for SPY is more effective because of its depth and participants, and the money is somewhat smarter, but nothing about shooting for a market-clearing price discredits betting markets in the least.

3. This is maybe a little picky, but still important — the Celtics don’t “rely on variance” with their massive trifecta launching; they do just the opposite. They *suffer* short-term variance — Game 1, 2025 ECSF — to obtain greater aggregate medium and long-term results. Their strategy is more useful and dependable the bigger the sample size.

And you’d be guessing wrong. Vegas isn’t predicting that Boston will beat us by ~10 points, it’s predicting that that’s what gamblers think and a line of -10.5 will get an approximately even amount of money bet on either side of it. Casinos don’t lose extra money if Boston actually wins by 1 or by 30.

I’ve been a serious gambler for over 50 years.

I know they try to make lines to balance the betting.

Did you even read what I said?

I said “The consensus view of all gamblers is ridiculously sharp”.

The implication being that gamblers must think the appropriate line is approximately 10 points or they would have moved it. And given gamblers are extremely sharp, that line is likely to be approximately correct over the long haul.

I know I wouldn’t take either side of that bet and give up the vig.

They are better than us by a few points, have home court (worth a couple of points), are in a must win situation (some hard to measure plus), couldn’t have played any worse and still took us to OT. 10 seems about right to me too. If it’s off, it’s not off by enough to wager.

Humans find it very hard to deal with randomness and luck, and much prefer cause and effect and agency. (*)

For the most part, the Celtics missed a bunch of threes in Game 1 simply because they missed a bunch of threes. ESPN’s and The Athletic’s bills have to be paid, and their shelf space has to be filled, and no one’s going to begrudge them that — but there’s really little more to it than that.

(*) Which, among other reasons, led to them inventing gods.

Cleveland has been crippled by injuries. I wouldn’t blame that on Atkinson.

Does he get blame for that marvelous in bounds play that lost them the game with 30 seconds left?

1. Thibs didn’t “save” anything for 88 games, anymore than he “funneled” three-point shooters to certain spots on the floor BITD. Let’s dispense.

You can characterize switching on 38% of PNRs, which indeeded rank #1 out of 89 games, compared to a regular season average of 15%, however you want. I personally would be pretty surprised if this happened by chance as opposed to via a coaching directive!

I said “The consensus view of all gamblers is ridiculously sharp”.

The implication being that gamblers must think the appropriate line is approximately 10 points or they would have moved it. And given gamblers are extremely sharp, that line is likely to be approximately correct over the long haul.

If gamblers are so sharp then why aren’t casinos and betting sites going bankrupt? This is just wisdom of crowds/appeal to majority.

Does he get blame for that marvelous in bounds play that lost them the game with 30 seconds left?

That was atrocious. I still really like him as a coach but I don’t know what the fuck that play was.

You do realize that if they’d shot 35% they’d have won by 15, right?

You do realize we average 115 ppg and only scord 100 at the end of regulation. We played played like crap offesively too. Missed a ton of free trows, had a ton of turnovers and lost the rebounding battle. Why are you acting like we played our best 48 minutes of the season?

I personally think we could play better than we did in game one. Even excluding Mitch’s free throws, we still only went 14-21 from the line, well below our season average. We also were outrebounded by 10. KAT got into foul trouble early. Mikal made huge plays down the stretch but shot poorly. Brunson played great in the 4th but did not shoot well in the first half.

All in all, it was a great win and maybe some of Boston’s poor 3 point shooting was random/bad luck, but I think we could play better too.

I don’t think the gap between these 2 teams (especially if they’re hobbled) is as big as the season records/narratives appear it to be.

I said this last week. If we are to win, it will likely have to be in 7.

If we can agree to give Boston two games where they make 40%+ from three, we go cold and they win by 10+. That’s cool. if this means that we stay within 2-3 posessions @ five minutes to go mark – then this team is built to win 4 out of 5 of close games. So far, they’re 1 for 1.

3. This is maybe a little picky, but still important — the Celtics don’t “rely on variance” with their massive trifecta launching; they do just the opposite. They *suffer* short-term variance — Game 1, 2025 ECSF — to obtain greater aggregate medium and long-term results. Their strategy is more useful and dependable the bigger the sample size.

This is exactly correct, and it’s the reason why NBA teams launch more and more threes. They’ll have an occasional bad game, but in the long haul the regression to the mean inherent in something like three point shooting will favor them.

We really need them to go on a massive cold streak to win the series. So far so good!

I think the switching defense, and the defensive focus in general gave us a chance to win. If this defense is real and continues throughout the series, there’s a real chance to get the the East finals.

We saw it with OG when he tried to come back for game 7 last year. It was clear that it was his first time that he tried to play hurt in his career.

Stop it….. At 73 there is no one more from the “tape an aspirin to it” school than me, but no amount of “mental toughness” allows someone with a pulled hamstring to play after a week.

OG took the treatment and whatever “medications” were given by the training staff and the third of fourth trip up and down the floor at full speed he was unable to continue. You can’t fool Mother Nature!

There is a huge difference between a chronic injury and an acute injury.

Michael Jordan played with a broken foot, risked career threatning injury against Boston and gave them 63.

I’m calling complete BS on this one.

On 10/29/85 Jordan broke a bone in his foot. He sat out until until 3/15/86 when he returned to the NBA,

He played 15 regular season games (plenty of time to be in prime fitness) before game one of the 1986 playoffs. He risked nothing, coming back as planned when he was deemed healthy.

However don’t forget how Danny Ainge ruined Isiah Thomas’ career by having him play through an injury to his hip in the 2017 playoffs that ruined the career of a guy who was 5th in MVP voting in 2017. That injury cost him a fortune.

I suspect Vegas is underrating Mikal ‘s postseason defensive breakout.

This defense is not the regular season defense with him playing at this level and any line attributing Boston’s offensive struggles entirely to bad luck is shortsighted.

People are weirdly enthused about a defensive game plan that really wasn’t effective. The Celtics were up 75-55 6 minutes into the 3Q against our switching strategy; the idea that they need to adjust to it is bonkers.

What worked for us is our bread and butter, the same strategy we used in Boston to turn that blowout into a close game: Thibs kept the starters (sans Towns and his 4 fouls) in for the whole 3Q.

Boston started making subs at 6:19 when Pritchard and Kornet first entered. Thibs didn’t take a guy out til Brunson rested with :28. In those 5 minutes 51 seconds we whittled a 20 pt lead down to 6.

IMO that’s actually a huge victory for Thibs. I thought it was his best playoff game ever. But we didn’t really find some strategy that we can bank on for the rest of this series, or that Mazzulla needs to adjust to. We have to win three more games by hook or by crook. Thibs stole us 1 already but I would play that card sparingly, because it’s likely to have diminishing returns.

I think everyone is aware the Celtics are a better team when fully healthy.

However with Jaylen Brown hobbled and KP questionable the longer this series goes, the better the Knick’s chances.

If KP can’t play much/well, Al Horford (the Jeanne Calment of the NBA) will be forced to play too many minutes. Good things can happen , now.

3. This is maybe a little picky, but still important — the Celtics don’t “rely on variance” with their massive trifecta launching; they do just the opposite. They *suffer* short-term variance — Game 1, 2025 ECSF — to obtain greater aggregate medium and long-term results. Their strategy is more useful and dependable the bigger the sample size.

This is exactly correct, and it’s the reason why NBA teams launch more and more threes. They’ll have an occasional bad game, but in the long haul the regression to the mean inherent in something like three point shooting will favor them.

We really need them to go on a massive cold streak to win the series. So far so good!

The question is how long the short term is — and even a 7 game series can have significant variance from “aggregate”. Shooting a bazillion 3 pointers has a much greater standard deviation of eFG but a higher mean eFG than other non-layup/FT shots. In a short series (7 games qualifies as that) it’s not ridiculous to think they could shoot 30% for the series – not ridiculous even in the slightest or probably even that uncommon. And on the flip side, the Knicks could have variance the other way, meaning we shoot 43% for the 4-7 games.

Boston is a significantly better team than us, obviously we’re going to need some luck to beat them. You can’t one simple coaching trick your way to win a 7 game series against a significantly better team

If KP can’t play much/well, Al Horford (the Jeanne Calment of the NBA) will be forced to play too many minutes. Good things can happen , now.

KP sitting also means more Kornet, which lets Mitch sit in the paint.

I don’t think it’s purely coincidence the 20-6 run came during the Mitch/Kornet matchup.

I feel like i’m drinking the kool-aid somewhat and that my hopes and dreams will be dashed tonight, but in April we really should have beaten the Celtics, and in that game they shot 49 3 pointers and made 39% of them — including 8 3 point makes from KP. We don’t need the Celtics to shoot terribly to win, and we also don’t necessarily need an outlier shooting performance of our own either (we shot 11/38 or 29% from 3 that game).

We were close that game due to winning the possession battle (11 TOs vs 17 TOs, and absolutely crushing them on the offensive glass – 37% ORR vs 20.5% ORR). We can definitely still do that and win.

The idea is that we stole 1 game using that trick, let’s not go to the well every single game. Herculean effort from OG and Bridges was a bigger factor than our switching strategy. So let’s not wear them out.

The idea for game 7 is that by that point you may be playing someone that resembles a Pacers opponent.

That leaves two out of five games you gotta win just by being better.

Play the long game here. Get some hard fouls in. Mitch should be mad the

We were close that game due to winning the possession battle (11 TOs vs 17 TOs, and absolutely crushing them on the offensive glass – 37% ORR vs 20.5% ORR). We can definitely still do that and win.

Spitting tacts. Post of the day. That’s what I’m talking about.

@KnicksMuse
18% of all ticket purchases for Game 2 of Knicks vs Celtics on @TickPick have come from either New York or New Jersey.

Maybe it was the Celtics who got really lucky last playoffs not having to play teams at full health and they’re not that much better than us head to head in a 7 game series??!!! Or maybe we are going to get blown out by 40.

Maybe it was the Celtics who got really lucky last playoffs not having to play teams at full health and they’re not that much better than us head to head in a 7 game series??!!!

THIS IS WHAT I’M SAYING.

For all we know they’re the 2014-2015 Hawks if the Hawks got lucky and Lebron got hurt and then when they faced Golden State Curry and Klay were hurt.

If we win it all, I’m perfectly fine with the narrative, “The Knicks Got Lucky.” 😉

It would be very Knicksy to defeat the Celtics then get swept by the Pacers. #dolansrazor

Maybe it was the Celtics who got really lucky last playoffs not having to play teams at full health

I mean, that’s definitely true.

Miami without Butler.

Cleveland without Allen and Mitchell.

Indiana without Halliburton.

Dallas with a visibly hobbled Luka.

But they’re also just not as good as last year. Brown in particular is struggling. KP’s had a weird year, too.

If we win it all, I’m perfectly fine with the narrative, “The Knicks Got Lucky.”

100%

kp had about a successful a season as edey and poltl did

But if we win it all then Leon won’t fire Thibs and then Leon will be just a trumped up agent and we’ll still just be a mezzanine team. Mezzanine is bad right?

But if we win it all then Leon won’t fire Thibs and then Leon will be just a trumped up agent and we’ll still just be a mezzanine team. Mezzanine is bad right?

Exactly. We should tear it all down. Why even wait for series to end? Start dealing, Leon!

Mezzanine is bad right?

It depends on the quality of the show 🙂

I don’t know if i’ll be here for the start of the game, so here it goes… Let’s gooooo Knicks!!! 🧡💙

‪@jledwardsiii.bsky.social‬
Mazzulla said Porzingis is a game-time decision.

he remains probable which almost always means in nba injury report parlance that iis playing

Mazzulla said Porzingis is a game-time decision.

How do you not know yet with an illness?

game one win, doesn’t really feel though like we’re playing with house money…

think we are going to have a hard time winning at home…not sure why, but…

keep looking at that ten and a half point betting line in favor of the celtics…hoping the house pays mightily for setting that line so high…

KP’s had a weird year, too.

Has he had a weird year or has he had a typical KP year?

love seeing how OG has really empowered himself on the court, very cool if mikal can consistently step up also…

with OG and mikal playing well, the gap between us and the celtics closes considerably…

Boston’s best player, John Havlicek, missed most/all of the 1973 ECF, but the Knicks’ championship was fully ratified and vindicated when they curb-stomped the healthy Lakers in 5.

Knicks beat a healthy West champion in the final, same deal.

official kp in dogie howser out

But if we win it all then Leon won’t fire Thibs and then Leon will be just a trumped up agent and we’ll still just be a mezzanine team. Mezzanine is bad right?

Guys, our path to the title involves 3 Celtics and 3 Cavs getting and staying injured while we pray OKC loses to Denver.

I’m rooting hard AF for it bc flags fly forever but let’s not suck Leon’s dick just yet.

official kp in dogie howser out

Goddammit hope he plays bad or gets hurt or we lose by 35

Don’t tell me whose dick to suck. I like options.

horford start istead of kp though

official kp in dogie howser out

Hauser might still play as Celtics2025 though

Hauser might still play as Celtics2025 though

Nice one!

not sure whether i would rather more horf or more kp i guess they can both kill us in similar way

not sure whether i would rather more horf or more kp i guess they can both kill us in similar way

Horford is great, but you gotta believe he can’t play that many minutes anymore.

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