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58 replies on “Knicks Morning News (2024.12.31)”
Utah then OKC. OKC is going to feel like a slap in the face after the schedule we’ve had. Wouldn’t be surprised if we lost just because we forgot what NBA teams are like.
I suspect that we could defeat Utah and be at the high point of the season, record-wise.
Will the team as is have any space under the aprons in the next offseason? Or the year after?
According to basketball reference, Precious, Cam, Sims and Matt Ryan all come off the books at the end of this season and are collectively worth about 10.8 million. I imagine we will be replacing them with another second round guy and some cheap vets.
The season after, Bridges’ and Mitch’s contracts are up, and Pacome has his first team option year. Depending on what happens with Mitch, we might get some space as his contract is about 13 million that year.
Barring some kind of salary dumping move, we are unlikely to have a lot of cap flexibility in the next couple years. That said, if anyone can squeeze the most out of our limited cap space, it’s Aller.
So I’m wondering…
Who is it more important to get going early? KAT or Brunson? We have got to find a way to stop these slow starts. I dunno..seems like Brunson has improved his passing, so maybe we should be getting KAT rolling 1st, then allowing Brunson to do his thing with the space it creates? I was dumbfounded by our 1st half against a team that doesn’t play defense
The result of the OKC game won’t mean as much to me as seeing how we defend the SGA/Hartenstein pnr. If there’s one data point I’m looking for to believe this team’s ceiling is higher than I think it is, it will be seeing competent defense against teams that can put Brunson and/or Bridges in spread pnr action with Towns.
SGA may actually be a decent matchup for Bridges. I mostly fear the teams where either Bridges or Brunson are toast at the POA.
We will be playing the Thunder in OKC.
We’d be the underdog even if the market considered the teams equal, let alone that OKC is better.
If we lose that game, can we please avoid a panic attack thread.
All we want out of that game is to be competitive and look like we belong. If it comes down to the last few minutes and we lose, so be it. They have the better defense and will be home.
If we get blown out, can see clearly what the issues were, and they are things we’ve identified previously as problems (like maybe our starters play them even but their bench destroys our bench, we can’t defend a certain play etc..) then we’ll know we need to make another move to address that problem.
That game is not some litmus test on the season or this team.
I hate to be the “wet blanket” again, but this last 22 game stretch has literally been the lamest run of basketball opponents I can remember. First, the sure-fire lottery teams (and many of these games featured one or more of their best players not playing):
Wizards X 3
Hornets X 2
Pels X 2
Raptors X 2
Nets X 2
Jazz (L)
Then the play-in level teams:
SA (eked out a win)
Pistons (L)
Then the decent to very good teams missing one or more of their stars:
ORL X 3
DAL (L)
PHX
Then the good teams at close to full strength:
MIN (W)
ATL (L)
DEN (W)
On the positive side, we have largely done what excellent teams are supposed to do…18-4 is nothing to shake a stick at. The offense has looked awesome, and the defense has marginally improved. But beyond that, what can you really take away in terms of how we really measure up with the top-10 teams?
So for all you armchair GMs out there, if there was a stretch-4 that was averaging 12.5 rebounds and 1.5 blocks per 36, and shooting .364 from three, would you trade, oh I don’t know, Precious for him?
Strat, plus we play them at MSG a week later, so if we split, it basically means very little if we lose in OKC Friday.
But I would expect a lot of “we’re not an elite team, we only beat bad teams” talk if we lose Friday.
I agree, Z-Man, it’s an annoyingly easy schedule (although fairly pleasant from a viewing perspective) that makes it difficult to know what we really have. On the flip side, over our 8-game win streak, to quote Macri:
“The Knicks are the second best defense in the league over this stretch with a 106.8 defensive rating, behind only the aforementioned Thunder. Even considering their cakewalk of a schedule, that’s pretty darn impressive.”
“That game is not some litmus test on the season or this team.”
No single game is, but this is the first “real” test that we’ve had since the ATL game, and before that, the CLE and BOS games and the second IND game, and to a lesser degree, the DEN, DAL, and MIN games. Meaning, in games against good teams who played well, we have not done very well thus far. Most of those games happened long enough ago to employ the “we were still figuring it out” excuse. But now we are on an 18-4 run and there really isn’t much more juice to squeeze out of our current roster, at least not until Mitch comes back, if that ever happens, or a trade for a rotation player happens. If we don’t get at least a split with OKC next week, that’s not a good sign. However, if we win one and lose the other in competitive fashion, I’ll be very encouraged.
Caveat: The one “excuse” that can be made if we do happen to lose badly in OKC is that we haven’t really been pushed to be our “best selves” due to the shitty schedule and kinda need a wake-up call. For example, we’ve largely been able to get away with KAT’s idiotic fouls, OG’s poor shooting, and bench woes. That’s not sustainable vs. the likes of OKC and many of the other good teams when they are playing well. Boston is kind of finding that out right now, and I suspect we are going to have to go through some adversity as well to toughen up. Eventually, so will CLE and OKC.
Here’s a game: please find me 5 other trades in Knicks history which yielded better comparative value recieved over what was given than Leon’s trade of Cam Reddish and 1st round pick (that became Kris Murray) for Josh Hart.
Something is telling their salaries would match exactly
“although fairly pleasant from a viewing perspective”
LOL, I guess so, though sweating out nail-biting wins vs. the Wiz, Hornets, Spurs, Raps, and Magic is only “pleasant” in a masochistic way!
Unsurprisingly, I don’t think it’s impressive at all. Bridges’ ability to corral the likes of Jalen Suggs, Bub Carrington, RJ Barrett, and the corpse of Chris Paul is unlikely to translate to better success against the quality ball handlers that have given him fits this year.
Hence my curiosity about how we handle SGA and Hartenstein. If we look competent against that action and lose, I’ll be more impressed than if we win a shootout.
Precious has definitely given the team a big lift. I’d be very reluctant to trade him right now.
No you don’t… 😉
It is also relevant that Precious has been decent enough to consider him as part of the positive return of the OG trade rather than just a throw-in. He does some squirrelly shit out there but the motor is awesome! I love his demeanor as well, he and OG balance out Hart’s high-octane schtick.
“No you don’t… 😉”
LOL seriously, I really do! Speaking of which, where’s Pags and E these days?
I’m on team Precious unless trading him would be an obvious win, and that seems unlikely.
Precious’ hands are so bad, though…my God does he flub interior passes that are thrown to him.
Sorry for the posting binge (well, Max, not really!), about to get an early start on New Year’s reverie. First a quick beverage, then the Bob Dylan Movie, then more beverages out on the town, then returning home and finishing out Killing Eve season 4 while the missus makes bolognese, broccoli rabe, and Elio’s salad, then hanging at home with some fine scotch and a fire to savor the end of an amazing year for Z-man (except for early November, alas…). Wishing all a safe and joyous New Year and continuation of the great NYK vibes!
Oof, what a rough way to end out the old year.
“Oof, what a rough way to end out the old year.”
I know, just trying to be a good hubby! Great acting, producing, and soundtrack, though…but the plot lines jumped the shark long ago.
A relative very much liked the Dylan movie, although she is of the age…
And yeah, Precious’s hands are good for at least one flub per game. He’s no Butter Stumps, but if it’s not in his bread basket bad things can happen…
You don’t need a spreadsheet to know that betting on that is a lousy idea.
I liked the Dylan movie; it’s very authentic and by the end I had kind of forgotten what the actual Dylan sounded like and had fully accepted Chalamet’s version; that said, the scope is very small: whether the integrity of a folk festival with several hundred attendees is ruined or not isn’t quite enough drama to carry a 2+ hour movie, and Pete Seeger has got to be the nicest kindest gentlest screen villain ever attempted.
Thanks, Kaminari. Will we be able to use this money to at least re-sign Precious?
Pags just returned from a 12-day vacation with a toddler, which left him more in need of a vacation than when he departed.
Glad to see we’ve taken care of business but no revelations over this stretch, for reasons well articulated by others
“So for all you armchair GMs out there, if there was a stretch-4 that was averaging 12.5 rebounds and 1.5 blocks per 36, and shooting .364 from three, would you trade, oh I don’t know, Precious for him?”
Did anybody ever reveal who this is? Not sure why it’s a secret, or why he’s being discussed but un-named. I can’t find anyone who is averaging 12.5 rebounds per 36 and .364 on 3s. Maybe I’m missing him.
Yep! The first season was sublime. Then Pheobe Waller-Bridge stopped writing and the show went progressively to shit.
Never change, Doogie. The answer is: Precious Achiuwa!
Hahahaha
Precious and Hart have the same shooting coach apparently.
I am excited for the Dylan movie
So the Knicks are pretty good in the third quarter. Better than everyone else atm. Perhaps getting through the lineup once will spread that to the first halves in this upcoming year. Adjustments and all that. It’s been easier getting my hubby to sit with me to enjoy games as the spirit on the team is palpable and Josh Hart is a stud, but gonna have to check game updates from the dance floor this New Year’s Day. Twirling with thousands of other sexually compatible people to the insistent beat of a deep house paradigm is very compelling.
Seeing Dylan movie this week. Heard it was pretty decent.
Doogie, I think the point is that we have been tossing around potential replacements for Precious, but none of them are actually better than him, especially at his salary level. We have to see this team at full strength before we can determine what our next move should be.
Happy New Year everyone!
Someone correct me if I’m wrong, but the Knicks will only have the taxpayer mle plus vet minimums to spend on free agents this offseason.
I’m late to the answer, but mine would be something like “No i wouldn’t trade for that guy, because this feels like a trap question”. 😀
Yeah, just keep Precious, at least for now. If some good opportunity comes around, we take it, if not, we roll with what we have.
OKC won’t be a litmus test to me, because if we meet OKC in the playoffs it’ll be a great season no matter win or lose. The teams we need to know how we fare against are in the east.
Happy new year, good people of KB! 🍾🥂🥳
I’ll see the Dylan film after they put out the Stravinsky Paris riot movie….
Happy New Year, all! Our team has the fourth-best record in all the NBA: who woulda thunk?
🎇💥HAPPY NEW YEAR TO ALL THE KBLOGGERS!💥🎇
🥂SEE YOU IN 2️⃣0️⃣2️⃣5️⃣🥂
🏀💙🧡LET’S GO KNICKS🧡💙🏀
And just like Max took over my emoji crown 👑 in 2024, the Knicks will take over the Celtics’ crown 👑 in 2025! 🧡💙
I think I’m gonna spend the rest of the day clearing Cyberpunk so I can finally start the RE4 remake lol. I’ve spent nearly 200 hours doin as much random shit as I can find. Been sitting on the mission that starts the last act of the game for a couple of weeks now. Then maybe I’ll watch a random horror movie or 2. I hear Frogman is pretty good. Of course I’ll be popping a 2:1 gummy in between *shrugs*
Gonna enjoy largely doing nothing while Lady PJ allows it. She’s in the kitchen and refuses my help lol
In any case- if I don’t make it back here today, be safe and let’s all have an amazing 2025 despite the fuckery that lingers. Happy New Year!
Side note:
I have been (finally) watching the Harley Quinn series on Max. The Mrs doesn’t like how goofy it is, but that show is fuckin great to me..and hilarious! I live for Kite Man’s random hell yeahs lol
Hey Alan, if you’re out there, what do you think of Cross on Amazon Prime? I’ve watched the first three episodes, and I really like it so far. Anyone else?
“And just like Max took over my emoji crown 👑 in 2024, the Knicks will take over the Celtics’ crown 👑 in 2025! 🧡💙”
Max gets my vote for Knickerblogger of the year!
Flawed or not, the whole point behind SRS is to look at the level competition and the margins of victory and try to create a rating that puts everyone in the right pecking order.
You can have the easiest schedule in the world and go 20-0 but if your average margin of victory is 1-2 points, it will calculate you as being only a 1-2 points better than bad teams, meaning you are mediocre at best.
The fact that our SRS is strong is saying we aren’t just beating bad teams, we are beating them by enough to indicate we are very good.
The flaw is in the injuries you mentioned.
Since it doesn’t include an adjustment for each game due to significant injuries, it would tend to overrate a team like the Knicks that has been pretty healthy (other than Mitch) and faced a lot of injured teams. But tht kind of thing doesn’t have a huge impact on SRS because some of those players don’t move the line that much and not every game includes missing players (I used to estimate it) .
It also doesn’t include home and away.
The Knicks have played more road games than home games. That means our SRS is lower than reality by some amount that helps offset at least a little of the injury issue.
It also doesn’t include trend. I would argue we are playig better now than at the start of the season due to familairity of new players, but SRS is counting all the game equally. It doesn’t weight recent games more.
Our SRS right now is 5.99
So lower it 1 -2 points at most for injuries (and that’s probably too much) and that’s what we are – assuming you trust SRS to be at least reasonably valid.
Yes, but based on our current projected salary and the projected cap on spotrac, we don’t have the full vet min because we hit the 2nd apron. In order to get to the 14 player minimum, even with the Grizzlies’ 2nd rd pick coming at the rookie minimum, we can only pay $800k over the vet min. It’ll be around $3.1M.
There’s also some marginal utility in not using the MLE to avoid getting hard capped at the 2nd apron. By avoiding the hard cap we can sign vet mins if there’s a rash of injuries.
Of course, getting the best vet min will be a better value if someone like Tyus Jones falls through the cracks again. That said, Precious could be worth retaining if he can put together a good year.
We can re-sign Precious up to the max as long as he’s still on our team at the end of the season and we don’t hard cap ourselves.
There’s also evidence (or maybe it was just speculation) that teams that regularly blow out their opponents are underestimated by SRS because teams take their foot off the gas, which causes their point differential to be lower than it otherwise could be. No idea what the effect size is, but we’ve blown out a lot of shitty teams and a couple good ones.
The Dylan movie was exceptional.
Re: bench depth and starters minutes (injury risk):
I often hear stories how there are a few G League or bench NBA players every year that are better than many starters but never get a chance due to GM commitment via either contract or draft to other players. Some veterans playing overseas too. Pat Riley often seems to find them.
Think this is the last piece of puzzle for Leon/Gersson and Brock to solve. Need a couple of Bo Cruzes asap.
I have always liked Aldis Hodge a lot, and I think he’s really good as Cross: super magnetic, versatile, vulnerable, etc. The show’s not really my thing, though, but in the same way the Cross books aren’t my thing. It’s part of a subgenre I often refer to as “awesome serial killers are awesome,” and it takes an incredibly high level of execution and creativity — like, say, the Hannibal TV show with Mads Mikkelsen — to interest me in that kind of thing these days.
I did, however, interview Hodge about doing the show: https://www.rollingstone.com/tv-movies/tv-movie-features/aldis-hodge-alex-cross-interview-1235155384/
Think this is the last piece of puzzle for Leon/Gersson and Brock to solve. Need a couple of Bo Cruzes asap.”
He doesn’t like being referred to as Bo Cruz, and has said as much.
Wow, the Celts must hate the Raps!
Thanks Alan! I’m a fan of the James Patterson novels.
Wemby going for 80 points…
Okay, not quite. But still, 19 points in 13 minutes.
Hey, Happy New Year y’all! May 2025 bring you everything you need and a good bit of what you want.
I’ve been watching Lets Play-type vids on the RE4 remake. I really enjoy watching the playthroughs and all the mod challenges – let me know how you like it once you get to playing.
OT: I’ve finally become a full-fledged Californian. No, I haven’t switched my fandom – I just finally got a CA license (I had been using my NY license for years, but it expires Saturday lol)
“I’ve been watching Lets Play-type vids on the RE4 remake. I really enjoy watching the playthroughs and all the mod challenges – let me know how you like it once you get to playing.”
This sentence might as well be written in Swahili.