[news.google.com] — Thursday, May 25, 2023 7:07:30 AM
Knicks to decline Derrick Rose’s team option? Hoops Hype
[news.google.com] — Thursday, May 25, 2023 6:30:00 AM
“Giving Out Participation Trophies,” the New York Knicks’ Move to Honor Recently Retired Carmelo Anthony Divides the NBA Fandom EssentiallySports
[news.google.com] — Thursday, May 25, 2023 5:58:24 AM
Knicks Rumors: Julius Randle, RJ Barrett, Josh Hart, Immanuel Quickley, Derrick Rose, more Hoops Hype
[news.google.com] — Thursday, May 25, 2023 3:17:00 AM
NBA Rumors: Carmelo Anthony’s jersey likely to be retired by New York Knicks Sportskeeda
[news.google.com] — Thursday, May 25, 2023 1:40:13 AM
Carmelo Anthony Has ‘Support’ From Knicks For MSG Retirement Sports Illustrated
[news.google.com] — Wednesday, May 24, 2023 10:45:37 PM
Knicks, Karl-Anthony Towns Trade Matter of ‘When … Not If”? Sports Illustrated
[news.google.com] — Wednesday, May 24, 2023 10:25:00 PM
Carmelo Anthony has support within Madison Square Garden for … CBS Sports
[news.google.com] — Wednesday, May 24, 2023 9:47:51 PM
This Knicks-Pistons Trade Features Bojan Bogdanovic Yardbarker
[news.google.com] — Wednesday, May 24, 2023 9:00:00 PM
Sources: Former Knicks star Carmelo Anthony has support within Madison Square Garden to have number retired Yahoo SportsCarmelo Anthony opens up about why he ‘feels’ for Knicks like Julius Randle Daily KnicksNuggets still reaping benefits of trading Carmelo Anthony to Knicks Daily Knicks
[news.google.com] — Wednesday, May 24, 2023 8:04:25 PM
NBA Rumors: This Knicks-Pistons Trade Moves Bojan Bogdanovic NBA Analysis Network
[news.google.com] — Wednesday, May 24, 2023 8:03:00 PM
New York sports’ most coveted gigs finally have worthy successors New York Post
[news.google.com] — Wednesday, May 24, 2023 7:58:33 PM
Wild Knicks Trade Proposal Swaps RJ Barrett for $215 Million Perennial All-Star Heavy.com
[news.google.com] — Wednesday, May 24, 2023 7:52:44 PM
Wrestling Cosplay Takes Over New York Trains WRRV
[news.google.com] — Wednesday, May 24, 2023 5:00:28 PM
NBA Rumors: Lakers trade report should be extra amusing to Knicks … Daily Knicks
[news.google.com] — Wednesday, May 24, 2023 3:10:00 PM
LeBron James’ next team odds: Knicks among favorite landing spots New York Post
[news.google.com] — Wednesday, May 24, 2023 2:00:24 PM
Knicks 2022-23 player review: Josh Hart Posting and Toasting
[news.google.com] — Wednesday, May 24, 2023 1:46:03 PM
Knicks are interested in trading for Karl Anthony Towns: Report AMNY
[news.google.com] — Wednesday, May 24, 2023 1:45:36 PM
EXCLUSIVE: Filmmaker Alison Klayman Talks Liberty Doc … Sports Illustrated
[news.google.com] — Wednesday, May 24, 2023 1:39:46 PM
Knicks Get 8-Time All-Star in Cowlin Cowherd’s Trade Idea Heavy.com
[news.google.com] — Wednesday, May 24, 2023 10:23:35 AM
The Daily Lowdown: Stevie Knicks gives a special thanks to Taylor Swift for heartwarming reason HELLO!
[news.google.com] — Wednesday, May 24, 2023 10:20:42 AM
New York Knicks have secured a spot in the NBA Finals for a 77th straight season Sportsnaut
[news.google.com] — Wednesday, May 24, 2023 10:14:20 AM
NBA Rumors: Knicks Land Bulls’ DeMar DeRozan In This Trade NBA Analysis Network
[news.google.com] — Wednesday, May 24, 2023 10:00:04 AM
Carmelo Anthony opens up about why he ‘feels’ for Knicks like Julius Randle Daily KnicksCarmelo Anthony has support within Madison Square Garden for Knicks to retire No. 7 jersey, per report CBS SportsWhat should Carmelo Anthony’s Knicks legacy be in retirement? New York Post
[news.google.com] — Wednesday, May 24, 2023 9:19:33 AM
A Glance at Potential Knicks’ Off-Season Targets The Knicks Wall
[news.google.com] — Wednesday, May 24, 2023 9:00:00 AM
NBA trade rumors: Deals for Wizards SG Bradley Beal involving Magic, Knicks, Mavericks DraftKings Nation
[news.google.com] — Wednesday, May 24, 2023 8:00:00 AM
3 Disastrous mistakes Knicks must avoid making this offseason Daily Knicks
[news.google.com] — Wednesday, May 24, 2023 7:55:00 AM
Potential Knicks target Karl Anthony-Towns makes appearance at Yankees game Empire Sports Media
128 replies on “Knicks Morning News (2023.05.25)”
The stats say Montero has been playing pretty well in the ACB, anyone watch his games?
I’m european and i love our basketball so much that i only watch the NBA. 😀 Maybe Max knows something about it.
EB, you mean the Montero from G-League Overtime Elite who did play last SL with the Knicks and now play for Real Betis?
Yeah, him
I keep seeing all of this trade speculation that 95% of the time involves the Knicks- and they’re always crazy trades. “Knicks could target Beal.” “Knicks looking into possible Embiid trade.” Just overall tomfoolery! Poppycock! Codswallow! LOL..and not from small media outlets either. How about the Knicks continue to make smart moves that incrementally improve the team until a real opportunity to get another big time player presents itself? How about seeing if Weaver will take Obi for Burks and #31? Add Deuce in if absolutely necessary. Or something similar. Make a smart move that doesn’t look like a big improvement on the outside, but ends up really helping this team on the court like the Hart trade did. I get so sick of the Knicks being the team that far too many outlets dump craziness on. Last time I checked, we have a stable FO and coaching staff. Zeke’s not here..Mills isn’t here..Phil’s gone..The Way How I Play is in China..etc. Leon Rose has brought a direction and stability to this team that we really haven’t seen since Dolan took over. Why do people still expect to make moves out of desperation?
Re: Montero
One thing we can say about him: he’s not Frank Ntilikina, he has yet to find a shoot he doesn’t like 🙂
I remember him from the SL, very green, real offensive talent, good passer, traffic cone defense.
He can still grow (he was listed at 6’3″/175 lbs for the SL, he’s listed at 6’2″ in ACB). can learn, fill his body and become less a defensive liability.
He signed late in Spain and basically played half a season, his team was terrible (10-24 record and was relegated) so the “someone has to take shots even for bad teams” caveat applies, but his offense is real (he had some scoring burst that made for interesting highlights) and he’ll be 20 in july, a good player to keep in our radar.
I think he needs another season in Europe, with a better team, but he can showcase in the next SL.
It’d be nice to find the next Alvarado. 🙂
I love Alec Burks.
But I remember that Leon was forced to take “Starting Point Guard” Alec Burks out of Thibs’ hands last summer (Rose would have worked the same, but he did trade Burks…) and I’m scared thinking about our coach having him back ready to play 40 minutes a game (in the Regular Season, 45 in the Play-in/Playoffs)… 😀
I like (don’t love) Zach LaVine. I don’t think he’s a true dominant player and doubt he can put the Knicks over the top. He is stupidly overpaid. His salary is nearly identical to Doncic’s. He can’t hold Luka’s jock strap. Trading for Zach is dumb. Trading for Luka is smart (not that I think Cuban’s letting go of him).
Didn’t Zach Lowe just point out that the new CBA with its drastic luxury tax consequences would lead to lots of star player movement? Why would we ever lunge at a guy like Zach LaVine before seeing what else becomes avaiable?
If the FO had not been fortunate that the Cavs bid against them, we’d be sitting here right now trying to figure out how to build around a Brunson-Spida backcourt without the assets we gave up for Spida and the cap space he was taking up. They “blundered” their way out of disaster (or put less cynically, they drew the line at “really stupid and short-sighted” and didn’t go into “horifically catastrophic Phil/Isiah-redux” territory. Why did they even bother if they were just going to make an even more shortsighted deal the following year on the dawn of what might be an even better market?
Here’s my offseason plan for the Knicks:
1. Cut Rose ($15.6 M)
2. Cut DaQuan Jeffries, Isaiah Roby (save $4M)
3. Resign Hart (his salary is $13M give him $15-16M)
4. Sign desperate, minimum wage players to fill the back-end of the roster.
Unless there’s a real game-changing, playoff dominating player that becomes available, ignore the noise and stand pat. This team needs to show us that they’ve learned from the playoff experience.
It’s a very young team. They are still learning. Run it back.
Nobody is enamored with LaVine or advocating the Knicks jump on him before they see what else is available. I doubt anyone wants to give up anything near a Donovan Mitchell package.
But LaVine is a very good offensive player who can be had for relatively few assets and is a huge upgrade over RJ.
LaVine could be a big upgrade on offense and defense, which tells you how much the metrics hated RJs defensive.
Most people would rather have someone else, but he’s a good bet to be on the trading block and it’s not clear who else will be.
I agree Z-Man,
let’s see who become available (in trades or free agency, a lot of players have team/player options) and then choose a target… and the price we’re willing to pay.
Cyber, you’re better than this. Be better than this.
Aren’t Roby & Jeffries desperate minimum players already?
GoNY, even if we opt to skip trades this summer (which i don’t believe we will), we’ll have the MLE (12.2M) and the BiAnnual (4.7M, i think) to spend above the minimum.
Ok, ok, it was meant to be funny, but since i missed that goal, i’ll be serious. If what you’re telling us is that the Celtics are the best positioned of the teams that got down 0-3 to comeback and win the series, i might agree with you. But what you were defending here was that the Celtics had a good chance to be the first to comeback from 0-3 because, yeah, the chances were good. And that is just not true, they at best have a 20% chance. And i think this is way too much, because i don’t think people setting the odds ponder the fact that they’re on the verge of elimination quite right. I’d say maybe they have a 10% chance to win the series, because basketball during a game is a like a game of runs, and how do you think the Celtics will react when it’s the Heat making a run? With the knife on their necks, they’ll probably lose control of what they should be trying to do, and it all goes down like a house of cards. I don’t say it’s impossible to comeback from 0-3, but the odds are way lower than thinking about the odds game by game. It’s being on the brink of elimination that makes them play worse. And to have 4 perfect games on the brink of elimination, that’d be a feat for the ages. Which i sure don’t want the Celtics to do.
On the other hand, if the Celtics win the series, the Heat would be prevented to match our record of being the only franchise to reach the NBA Finals as an 8th seed. So there’s that.
I think most people are caught up in getting the perfect player and that things will always move in straight lines… the big question mark facing our future is how good Randle is going to be going forward…. any slippage is going to impact us greatly and makes an all-in type of move a bit worrisome…
if you can get someone who’s good… but not perfect… and leave enough outs in the deck in case Randle pulls another disappearing act if he never gets a consistent jumper… that is probably the preferable strategy to going all-in… even if we were to get Embiid … if Randle is not better than a Tobias Harris (and it’s possible he could be a lot worse) it’s going to be tough to replicate even the sixers success for example….
not doing anything is probably the worst option though… which might be ok for this offseason since seeing how Randle fares next season is a giant question mark.. but there are decisions to be made on trade pieces… expiring contracts… and picks being made.. and all that is coming to a hilt next offseason… and so the clock is ticking before the values on these things change wildly and they do not favor the knicks….
Is there list of players who followed two All-NBA, All-Star seasons with playoffs as poor as Randle’s but then improved they playoff performances to match or exceed their seasons in subsequent years?
In other words, is 2 a small sample size?
Looking through some stuff, I’m not sure we’ll have access to the full MLE because we can’t exceed the apron using non-tax MLE.
If we renounce Rose & re-sign Hart for ~$18M, that puts us almost exactly at the tax. The apron is set $7M above the tax threshold, which means we can only use $7M of the MLE unless we make other moves.
I’m not sure we want to use the MLE at all because we end up in the tax and it hard caps us at the apron.
I’m pretty sure we’re dumping Fournier on some team, so we’ll have space to spend the MLE, don’t worry.
Gabe Vincent is OUT tonight with an ankle injury. And somewhere, Hubert is rubbing his hands together in glee…
We still need to salary match, which limits our savings unless we’re dumping him into cap space, and that probably costs another asset.
My bet would be Obi goes out in order to open up more space too.
Either the Heat kill this celtics iteration or the celtics kill heat culture, either one makes me happy
Meanwhile, all accounts are that the new Washington POBO has license to blow things up if he wants. Fred Katz made the interesting point the other day that the Bradley Beal trade pricetag might quite a bit lower than for other stars, both because his contract is so ginormous, and because he has a no-trade clause and can pick his destination. How do we feel about trying to snag him for some kind of package centered around RJ, one of IQ or Grimes, and picks (including the Wizards getting back their protected pick)?
Also, is there anybody else from their roster we might want? We already re-litigated Porzingis the other day, and Kuzma only makes sense in a sign-and-trade if Randle is being sent out in that deal or another.
I wasn’t aware Hubert had made voodoo dolls of the Heat players… now i know why he’s so confident in the Celtics odds! 😀
We are all looking for another homerun like Brunson, but if we don’t get the perfect pitch, we can also just make contact and hit another single or double like we did with Hart.
Improving could mean any kind of sensible upgrade or it could mean a sideways move but for a player that fits a need better. In the latter case, that could mean improving spacing at the C, PF, or SF position, better defense at the PF or SF position, or another backup PG.
At this stage it’s hard to know who will be available and at what price, but I think to actually get better, it’s likely we are going to have to use some of the pick assets.
My preferred move is trading Randle as part of anything we do that happens to be big.
We don’t know what Rose and Thibs are thinking.
This probably renders our WAS pick relatively useless.
He’s an older, more expensive, more injury prone LaVine.
I’m onboard with LaVine, but just barely and for less than what Katz proposes for Beal. So I’d vote no.
I am 1000% against Kuzma under any circumstances.
I am less of a Beal fan than I used to be. He’s had some injury issues lately, the contract sucks, and I don’t think he’s much of a defender like I once thought.
Of the 3, Porzingis is actually the best fit. Randle is a terrific rebounder to help KP in that area and KP provides the improved spacing for Randle, RJ, and Brunson. He had the best season of his career last year and could have played in around 70 games last year, but the Wiz were tanking so he sat out. But giving him a long term contract is a tougher sell now than it was the first time because he’s hand multiple injuries since then and it slowed him a bit defensively.
EB, I think they’ll have the full MLE. They can give Hart $18M AAV but start his salary in the $16M range with 8% increases. With an apron in the $165M range they should be able to use the MLE given that, for better or worse, we won’t have draft pick cap holds.
I don’t know why anyone is assuming we would trade for LaVine without scouring the market for other options. Obviously he should be considered one option of many, you weigh the opportunity against the others.
The question is whether you still pass on him if the price is non-crippling (possible given his contract and injury risk) and there isn’t an obviously better opportunity. That would be the “run it back” approach.
LaVine comes with his well-documented issues, but he’s 28 and excels in the very areas we lack offensively. There aren’t too many better scorers in the NBA and I haven’t seen compelling evidence he’s a worse defender than RJ.
None of this means you trade for him come hell or high water, but standing pat is not a risk-free approach either. We could easily find ourselves with a bunch of extended players on the books without the ability to parlay them, or any other assets, into a player as good as LaVine. You can’t just write off that possibility because LaVine is a less than ideal target, as almost all players in the NBA are to some extent.
I think that still puts us a couple million short of the full MLE. We can free it up by moving Fournier for a cheaper deal.
We’d need to clear an additional $4.3M (or whatever the figure is) if we want to use the biannual. Given the roster, we might not.
Beal is really in the same vein as Lavine and there’s probably an even lower price tag which makes it appealing… he might actually be only worth an RJ or IQ + either zero picks or one of the maybe firsts we have.. .including Washington’s…
and i think if you do that i think that’s worth it…. there’s still enough bullets to go all-in and it’s just a josh hart redux move but this time for an actual high usage starter on a longer contract…
Beal is much more of a 3-level scorer… he’s a good bit inferior to Lavine from a future value standpoint and less tested in high octane environment but he’s not a bad option… and we should be shopping this tier of getting high usage scorers while only giving up a couple pieces ….
I agree.
The problem is it’s tough to weigh risks without knowing who will be available, when, and at what cost. We have even less knowledge than the front office.
Not quite. The both make over $2M – almost the same as Grimes.
As for LaVine and spending money, I only go after free agents and trades that bring back a player that fits with Randle and Brunson and is better than both.
Not only does he apparently have the freedom to blow it up, that’s the correct thing for them to do and the fans are screaming for them to blow it up too. I don’t see why they would continue with their current big 3. So yes, that pick looks a little more iffy now either for us or in a trade.
We haven’t had much luck with the picks we’ve gotten from other teams. That Dallas pick situation really sucked. We’ll get it, but we probably aren’t going to get something close to 10th after they trade that one and retool this off season.
I believe that is the minimum salary for them.
They each had 3yrs of NBA experience prior to this season, so their salary should be $2,066,585 in the 2nd year of that contract:
https://www.hoopsrumors.com/2022/07/nba-minimum-salaries-for-2022-23.html
for those with espn+..zach lowe has a pretty hefty write up on the celts potential comeback in the series topic.
So, are we going to stop punting on bird-in-hand draft picks now? Like maybe could we stop trading 1RPs to bad teams for heavily protected picks that may never convey? Because that strategy looks like a pile of dog shit right now.
Just pick a player when you’re on the clock, stop getting cute with this shit.
If the Wizards pick turns into two 2nds, which isn’t a sure thing yet (the Wizards are really stupid), then we’re likely to still be a 1st and two 2nds ahead.
I get what you’re saying but the Dallas pick this year we didn’t pick up by trading another pick. It was picked up by trading Porzingis and no one thought Dallas would fall off like this (especially Dallas). No one thought that pick would be the 11th or 12th pick when we picked it up.
the ‘likely’ is doing a lot of the lifting here isn’t it considering only one of the picks is actually likely to convey… milwaukee’s.. and the other is detroit’s which i dunno what path is needed for that to convey with them at #5 in this draft…
in all likelihood… it’s a lot like the incinerated pick in that we traded a lottery pick for a pick that could be a lot worse than it much further down the line…
Detroit’s protection goes all the way down to 9th in 2027. It’s honestly impressive if they continue to suck this bad for another 4 years… and then we’re still up three 2nds.
I’m not sure why we ought to be risk averse rather than try to maximize expected value.
Bradley Beal? The guy who hasn’t played over 60 games in over 4 years and whose high BPM for a season is 3.4? And who has a player option for $57M four years out?
No thanks!
“No one thought that pick would be the 11th or 12th pick when we picked it up.”
You can simply add the delay of the Dallas pick to the price for acquiring Brunson. If he were still there, no doubt that pick would have conveyed.
I’m grasping to think of what team would Beal even make sense for at this point. Anyone?
So the net result of all of Leon’s paper clip trading with the first round picks might end up being… a few second round picks? Call me crazy, but that seems sub-optimal.
Beal is at point where the Wizards may need to attach a pick to move him.
They can just hold him while tanking. He can’t win them games he’s too injured to play in.
Or it could net two 1sts, which is really good.
And having three additional 2nd round picks is still worth more than zero additional 2nd round picks?
I really don’t understand the issue people have with the move.
Three second round picks for a #11 overall pick is not a good trade.
To get Beal’s massive contract you have to include another contract with RJ + Evan… Hartenstein works. But WAS probably wants Quickley, so maybe a s&t with him. That said, 43 mil a year is a lot for what Beal provides at this point. Plus, I don’t like moving Grimes to SF in that scenario.
Seems like there’s a lot of “when not if” about KAT getting traded here. Former CAA guy, from NJ, knows Thibs’ system… it all makes sense except he would cripple the defense as a center. Idk maybe he plays PF but I doubt Minny (or anyone?) wants Randle back in return. Plus, it’s a bit soon for Minny to give up on him, unless he demands a trade or something. I know it would be a dream for Leon, but the fit just doesn’t seem right.
It’s three 2nd round picks and a 1st for a single first, only if Detroit and Washington picks don’t convey.
You can’t just look at the downside.
no we are not ‘up three 2nds’….. in no world where you give up a pick now for a pick later is ‘even’… how about you give you me $10,000 now and i’ll give you $10,000 sometime in the next 3-4 years… do you think that’s a fair trade? you would probably need a lot more money for that trade right?
so what makes you think that we’re three 2nd’s ahead… we had a lottery pick.. that pick was not used… is three 2nd’s sometime in the far future even remotely close to fair compensation for that to you?
or put another way… do you think we can get the #11 pick in this draft using all these picks?
KAT in Thibs system looked a lot like obi does now in thibs system today….
Right, I guess they also got the Milwaukee pick, likely to convey as a late first rounder, out of all that wheeling and dealing, I forgot that was part of the deal.
I think he’d fit pretty well in Toronto, from a roster standpoint, but money wise, Masai wouldn’t cripple the franchise like that. Maybe Harden goes to Houston as the rumors say, and then i can see Morey going for Beal to fill the void.
what upside is there? we traded a 2021 #11 pick… for a 2025 #20 … and a maaaybe 2025 # 15 pick…. and don’t forget two seconds…
that’s a terrible trade…. and that’s a very generous projection of the picks… it probably will be a lot worse than that….
that’s not even taking into account that jalen williams was picked #12… so yes there was a substantial player involved…
You can’t put draft picks in a bank and generate interest, there’s no time value of draft picks.
And you should be trying to maximize expected value, not minimize risk.
If you have a chance to triple your investment and insurance covers 90-100% if the venture fails, why are you saying no to that deal?
OMG are we really doing this again? Brace yourselves, more mansplaining incoming…
a draft pick is liek any other asset or thing…. we could be talking about cars… we could be talking about horseshoes… or candycanes… if i take something of value for you…. and trade it for a similar thing in the future you need additional considerations in order for it to be an even transaction… if you don’t … it’s not really a trade … it’s a gift….
if i borrow your car… and i return it 5 years later…. and gave you nothing… that’s not a transaction… that was a gift….
tripling your investment only occurs if you think the 2025 first rder that has non lotto considerations at that… has EQUAL value to a 2021 lotto pick…. IT DOES NOT…. and if you think that then you can try to trade for a lotto pick now dangling our pick next year and see how that works out…. even better maybe you can try to trade our picks this year for dallas’s pick… how do you think that will fare?
Except you’re not tripling your investment, as it’s highly unlikely that any of those picks is of equal value to the #11 pick, let alone all three of them.
You have a bird in the hand (#11) that you’re trading for a worse bird in the hand (MIL pick) and birds that may end up being diseased pigeons (second round picks). Granted that is the worst case scenario, but still.
Two things piss me off when watching basketball. Unforced turnovers (looking at you, Julius), and blown defensive possessions.
This team is built on defense (except RJ, who plays because…), and I love that identity. All of the armchair GM’ing going on here would significantly downgrade our defense, so I’m pretty much against all of it so far.
Except maybe OG. Swapping him with Barrett is fairly meh with the ball (although one can argue OG’s athleticism is a better look than RJ’s lack thereof, regardless of Maple Mamba’s [fantasy] ceiling), but the D would improve immensely and immediately.
let’s ask this another way…. and i’d appreciate an answer to this …. what do you think you can get for any of the picks in this year’s draft individually?
the milwaukee 2025 pick… what value does that have in the 2023 draft?
the washington pick? what value does tha have in the 2023 draft?
the detroit pick? what value does that have in the 2023 draft?
humor me plz….
If i give you a chicken today and you give me one during a future civil war,
i win
I mean, are these trades completely crippling the team’s fortunes? Probably not. Leon’s good at other stuff. Were they GOOD moves? Getting harder to justify that.
The Washington pick came somewhat close to conveying this year. Even if they do rebuild, it’s not out of the question we can snag the pick in 2026 (top 8 protected). If they’re terrible at that point, their ’26 and ’27 seconds might have late first value.
I guess I’m the only one here who thought our 2021 draft strategy was terrible, but our 2022 draft strategy was more or less fine. 3 probable firsts for 1 #11 pick seems like fair value. Jalen Williams definitely makes it sting though.
At the end of the day if it’s what we had to do to get Brunson you do it ten times out of ten.
If i give you one glass of water while you drink beers and you return it to me while I’m visiting the Parthenon one summer sunny day i win again!
“Things worked out.”
— “But it’s not how I thought it should be.”
“The results were what the FO planned for.”
— “Yeah, but I had different expectations, so they’re still wrong.”
…
Is there a statistical model that confirms that outside of the top 5 or so picks, expending a pick today is more likely to maintain or increase its pre-draft day value in a trade, say, 2 years out, than trading out of it for a protected pick? And by how much?
If that can’t be definitively proven to be any more than an incremental difference either way, then it’s at worst a matter of preference, isn’t it?
If we only look at downsides, then the guy drafted in 2023 will be worth nothing in 2025. But nobody thinks we should only look at the downside. We should weigh the upside against the downside and every outcome in-between and make the decision based on expected value.
Also, I think that Bucks pick is sneakily a solid asset. Two of their top three VORP guys from this year are 32 and 34 (Holiday and BroLo respectively). Middleton might’ve been there if he wasn’t injured, he’s 31. They’ve got little-to-no intriguing young talent. Plus there’s the 500 pound “will Giannis stay” gorilla in the room.
Even if Giannis stays, they’ll need to do some serious work on the team around him to stay elite into the 2024-2025 season.
If I gave you an Apple stock certificate in 1980 and you had to give me an Apple stock certificate today, I think I’d be fine. So maybe not any other asset or thing.
The other thing that doesn’t make a lot of sense to me with our 1RP strategy is that we’re ostensibly putting together a team with some “win now” vibes. That pat of it has panned out well: we actually ARE doing some winning now. Seems like we have a little bit of a window here to make some noise.
In that context, it seems to me like it would make more sense to draft some players who might be able to help you during that window, instead of punting the picks several years down the road. I’m just not really seeing the vision here, I’m not seeing how this is supposed to ideally work.
this was discussed and it was not necessary to land brunson….
the cap space that it saved was used for hartenstein….
These picks are obviously trade assets first, rebuild blocks second (if everything goes terribly wrong).
Maybe the civil war kills me and i don’t have to give you the chicken, i win. 😀
Draft plans ain’t only related to asset value but also to team’s/FO’s future plan.
Are mistakes impossible to be made in that process?
Definitely Not
But having the ability to realise the draft mistakes right away or even the next day,month,year of the draft seems to me a bit premature and unrealistic
Otoh reality is a bitch so since we’re in a sports blog let’s fuck it!
;-p
This is funny!
#Maybe the civil war kills me and i don’t have to give you the chicken, i win. 😀#
You win and also Vegans win!
;-)))
you’re coming at this like you have a time machine…. what you’re describing is stock borrowing… and yes in order for me to give up my stock in 1980 and let you borrow it on top of collateral the other party does require interest for this type of transaction….
if you can guarantee me the 2025 pick will land me the future jokic then yes i dont’ care what i give up… but we dont’ have the benefit of clairvoyance here…..
“In that context, it seems to me like it would make more sense to draft some players who might be able to help you during that window, instead of punting the picks several years down the road. I’m just not really seeing the vision here, I’m not seeing how this is supposed to ideally work.”
The vision seems to be using the picks either individually like we did for Josh Hart, or as sweetener to create cap space like we did last draft day for *whoever*, or as part of a package for a higher level star (like we are talking about with Zach LaVine and Bradley Beal…like ATL did for DeJounte Murray, etc.)
We can debate whether it is a sound vision or not, and whether it will work ideally or not, but it’s pretty clear that that’s what they have done (or tried to do, see: Spida) already and will continue to do or try to do. I can certainly understand being skeptical about it, but don’t get how one doesn’t actually see it.
I also think that Brock Aller is widely regarded to be a capologist extraordinaire for a reason. Seems to me that every transaction that the Knicks made is accounted for to the penny. Clearly they are avoiding dead cap like the plague and consider the impact of draft position on cap space. Again, not that it shouldn’t be quibbled with, but it does seem to be an active part of the vision/strategy.
LOL
I am not for Beal. Too old, too expensive, too hurt.
Cyber, I would use those exceptions to add talent, for sure. The Knicks are not strapped although they are over the cap.
I don’t think the Knicks are a team that should add youth. They’re already young and there’s no spots in the rotation for them. I don’t want draft picks this year. Pick up still serviceable veteran role players that are content with getting splinters and are good team mates.
The market dictates that you should charge interest, but at the end of the day I’m in the same position as if I held it. I’m not worse off. In the car example I am worse off because the car has a fixed useful life, it’ll run for X miles before crapping out. If you drive it 20 miles, then I only get to drive it X – 20 miles. This isn’t an issue with a stock certificate. It’s not used up if you hold onto it, you’re not X miles closer to needing to change the breakpads.
Or if you can play this hand of poker or the next hand, do you have a preference? Do you pay someone so that you can play an earlier hand instead of a later one? Isn’t this the most like the draft?
yes i know YOU consider yourself to be in the same position as you held it…. but that position is wrong… this is not debatable or some theory…. this is how the entire world operates…. just because this is a draft pick doesn’t change that dynamic….
once you use a draft pick.. that pick is a player that produces for you NOW…. if you don’t have a draft pick then you don’t.. you’re not in the same position because you’re without an opportunity that the rest of the league has when they actually do participate in the draft…. you have an empty roster spot that needs to be addressed through other channels…. when you forego that opportunity you need to be compensated for that based on the future value of the pick… this is whole thing with the incinerated pick because it could never exceed the value of the pick it was traded for and be a lot worse….
you’re understanding of this is just entirely wrong at a fundamental level…. and if you answer any of the questions i asked you might accidentally get to the reason why….
put another way….. do you have any stock holdings? would you let me borrow your entire portfolio and i’ll give it back to you anytime within the next 5 years? and would you let me do that for free?
There’s some chatter that the Knicks might retire Melo’s number. I don’t think that’d be popular here at KB, but let me know your opinions on the matter.
I don’t agree, Melo achieved too little with a Knicks jersey on, to receive such an honor.
Players = Current Value
Picks = Future Value
Whether you should want current value or future value is dependent on the age of the players on your team, how good the team is now, what you need, what’s available, what other teams want and need, whether you agree or disagree with how other teams are valuing players and picks now, whether there is upside to the current team, and things like that.
It can be difficult enough to value current players.
Valuing picks is way more difficult, especially now with kids coming out in the draft, and new league rules.
Neither is intrinsically better than the other. It all depends on the prices, your estimate of the values, and you think is your best strategy at that point in time given the conditions.
no friggin way should they retire that guy’s number but if Dolan can make a buck off of it…they’ll do it…
Very well said, strat.
See, to me, this is a backwards way to do team building. Your veteran role players are never going to be anything than veteran role players, and are more likely to decline than improve. You pay market value for them, and you get no surplus value from them, and often end up with negative value.
A better idea is to draft some young guys with upside, and make THEM the role players, and hope they can turn into more than that. We have already repeatedly seen this work! We just paid $14M to watch the wheels fall off Derrick Rose, and for him to lose his backup PG gig to a second round pick making one tenth of that salary.
That’s probably the reason behind the chatter, but i hope that if they know that all the fanbase is against the idea, that they won’t do it. Randle is a 1st round sweep away from matching Melo’s Knicks career, can you believe it?
The incinerated pick was a disaster because in the absolute best-case scenario it was very marginally better than the pick we traded away, and in the worst-case scenario, which was much more likely and in fact looks like it will come to pass, it would become two seconds.
The 2022 trade(s) could theoretically result in trading 11 for 5, 9, and 10. That’s obviously extraordinarily unlikely, but the scenario even existing puts it in an entirely different class than the incineration. Of course, the worst-case scenario is 11 for 3 seconds, so there was still plenty of risk involved.
Like EB said you weigh the upside, downside, and the in between. The calculus looks much more normal to me with the 2022 transactions than the 2021 disaster.
The median outcome is probably something like 11 for 15, 25, and two seconds. I think that’s an average transaction in a vacuum, and maybe a little above average if you include the Hartenstein signing.
Every day where Daniel Vogelbach is in the starting lineup for the Mets is a day on which I die inside a little
I went from thinking it would be some BS late first rounder when we made the KP deal, to thinking we had an excellent trade chip or draft prospect, to getting pissed off they tanked and its delayed. I’m going to refrain from making projections about Dallas. Their incompetence knows no bounds and their willingness to tank with a team that has Doncic, Kyrie, and a few decent role players instead of trying LIKE MIAMI did surprised me.
A disaster is giving 4-5 years to a player that is not as good as the price you paid and that’s likely to be on the downside after a couple of years.
A disaster is having a need for a player like exactly like Mikal Bridges and drafting Kevin Knox.
A disaster is having a desperate need for a PG but passing on Haliburton for Obi because you are looking for a replacement Randle at PF and then not trading Randle.
Losing some marginal present value to keep more future value or to undo a prior mistake to be better positioned to do something else, is regrettable but nothing to lose sleep about or dominate a discussion.
The Knicks have some spots at the back end of the roster that can be upgraded. I see no reason they won’t try to buy or trade for a pick this year and look for some bargain player that could surprise on the upside or develop into a solid role player later next year or in a couple of years.
They can do that while ALSO trying to upgrade the rotation players or add a star. It’s not one or the other. Everything is on the table to make the team better now and in the future. You not only can do both, they should be trying to do both.
Who is giving you more value over the next 3 years, Josh Hart or a draftee? Hartenstein or a draftee? Your vet roleplayers don’t all need to be in their mid-30s.
Chances are Hart & Hartenstein are better over that initial 3yr period. And if not, then you still have a pick to get value in the future.
An open roster spot is an opportunity to bring in a valuable player, just like a draft pick is. The ceiling is usually lower, but having two assets—the future pick and the current player—can offset it.
You can do a bad job of signing the current player, like signing an aging vet like Rose who fell off, or you can do a good job, like signing Strus and Martin and Vincent and Love with your open roster spots.
In the same way you can do a good job drafting, or you can draft Frank Ntilikina and Kevin Knox in back-to-back years.
Ironically, this season, if we decline Rose’s option and manage to send Fournier away, we’ll have more open roster spots than usual and they’d probably make the picks… if we had picks, i mean. Maybe Leon does a U-turn and trades future picks for present picks. 😉
We also get a third 2-way contract that could’ve been a good way to use a 2nd round pick.
“Losing some marginal present value to keep more future value or to undo a prior mistake to be better positioned to do something else, is regrettable but nothing to lose sleep about or dominate a discussion.”
Strat, you are 100% right on this one. Nothing to lose sleep over. Never was. Never will be.
Draft class depth is another reason why you can’t say that drafting Now is more valuable than drafting later
Not all draft numbers are equally valuable each year
Sex on the first date or when it feels right?
What’s better?
That’s how it seems to me defending not skipping your picks
and this is where the thinking of this is going a little off the rails.. mainly because we’re anchoring on the incinerated pick… and yes the incinerated pick is worse.. but this isn’t better by all that much….
trading 11 for the 15 and 25 is probably ok value .. if you trade it within the same draft… it is NOT the same thing when the 15 and 25 are in future drafts…. and more often than not people would refuse a #11 trade for two worse picks outright anyway on the grounds that the higher pick is much more valuable….
and there’s absolutely no guarantee that it’s even anything remotely close to that…. there’s a very good possibility that those picks don’t convey at all… which if you want to go the appeal to authority crowd.. is what most analysts have expected too…
but outside of that… ask yourself.. what can you reasonably expect to get for those picks right now…. and that should tell you all you need to know on what these picks actually are….
this is not the right way to think about it… BUT EVEN STILL.. in your example… yes poker hands are worth more now than later… that’s the whole system around blinds and having to immediately pay for them as soon as you sit down…. you only actualize that value once you play the most valuable position which is last but you may not even play that hand later on since you can leave or the game may break….
Dj, I don’t think future picks are inherently worth less than present picks. The Magic would’ve gladly traded the 2022 #1 overall pick for the 2023 #1 overall pick. Hell, they probably would’ve thrown in a lot more. If you’re not enamored with a particular draft, it makes perfect sense to swap out your pick with a future pick of equal value.
What makes future picks worth less in practice is the uncertainty–it’s impossible to know for sure whether you’re actually getting back a pick(s) of equal value. That’s why there’s rightly a premium charged to teams who trade future picks for present ones.
In 2021 we didn’t charge that premium. It was extraordinarily stupid, pedantic debates about just how consequential it was aside.
In 2022 we charged that premium. We got three picks for one. Because of the inherent uncertainty involved we still might not get back equal value, but because of the premium we gave ourselves a chance to get back equal or better value.
On another subject, at first I thought the changes in the new CBA were just tweaks to the system, but as I hear more about it, I have changed my mind and I don’t like it much. It doesn’t just reinforce the salary cap, it makes it harder to do team building outside of the draft. One of the under reported aspects of the new deal is that there are substantial penalties for teams whose total salaries are less than 90% of the cap. You don’t just pay the amount you are below the minimum salary into a salary fund. From what I’ve heard, most teams will have to get above the 90% before or at least right after the beginning of the season. This makes free agency only for no names. A player like Brunson, even as a bargain, makes way more than 10% of the cap. And the first apron, which is to be avoided, is only $7M over the tax line. As noted above, this means if you are close to the cap you have to really think about whether to use the mid level exception. Most teams are over the cap and close to this situation.
I suspect most teams will be over the cap, but under or just barely over the tax line. This means they usually will have to do trades of equal salary value. If you are getting a better player you will need to throw in draft picks. If teams can no longer go way under the cap to trade for higher salaries guys, draft picks will be more important than ever. But lots of teams already have traded future picks. Overall, I see fewer trades of big names, less player movement in free agency and more reliance on actually drafting talent. That’s more reliance on draft luck and less on the ability of your GM to do deals. It doesn’t seem as interesting to me.
I said none of that.
Disable your Hot Take Converter and let innocuous comments be.
Go Heat. (I took them at plus 8.5 tonight.)
this is the part people aren’t getting.. in order to do that deal you need a time machine… you cannot trade the #1 pick for the #1 pick the following year… you get a CHANCE at the #1 pick.. and so tell me.. would you trade the definitive #1 pick for the 2023 detroit striaght up?
in NO WORLD does ANYONE do that…. especially as it turns out that detroit gets the #5 pick… in order to get the #1 pick you need clairvoyance that the spurs win the lottery….
i will pose this question to the board and maybe it gets answered or more than likely it causes a few short circuits… would you trade the #11 pick in the 2023 draft for the #15 and #25 pick 4 years out even if it were GUARANTEED?
to me… maybe i’m stupid or something… but that’s a pretty poor haul isn’t it? and that’s the MEDIAN projection? we hold the most valuable asset in the transaction why are not holding out for a much better median projection…. this is literally the mentality of people addicted to scratch off tickets….
OKC is not short on draft picks either.. they basically flicked off the dust off their pile of draft picks.. these were their objectively worse ones…. and that should tell you how desperate they were to shuttle off the pick… when the pick rigth after turned into jalen williams…
so this did not work out on any level… in actuality… we got punished quite hard for it… and in theory this did not make sense on any level….
but maybe someone can explain it to me…. but i dont’ see a world you get a chance at two worse picks is acceptable… and i think if people are honest with themselves they wouldn’t either but for whatever reason it’s being excused now….
It’s an outright great asset. Especially when Giannis asks to be traded next year.
I was trying to think of who could put the best package together for him. The Celtics can offer Jaylen Brown and all the picks they have. We don’t have anyone like Brown, but we have way more picks, and being able to give them their own back is going to be huge.
And yet I can’t help but think somehow he’ll end up on Miami.
By the end of the year this team had 10 guys the coach was willing to play, and one of those was pretty borderline (deuce). Fournier and Rose were complete wastes of rosters spots. Fournier probably could have played, but he didn’t. Rose was cooked. If those were young guys we drafted they probably wouldn’t have played much but maybe they would have. Or maybe they’d be good enough to play next year.
If the finale to all this is Leon trading for the 19th pick it will all be worth it.
Xavier Tillman was pretty good in the playoffs. Jalen Johnson is still raw but he was as good as Grimes, Obi, and IQ. We’d be in a lot better shape if we had those guys.
Now if you sign Jalen Brunson, I can forgive you for being stupid. But they was stupid.
I thought playoff jimmy was built different?
Did the Athletic article get discussed?
https://theathletic.com/4550621/2023/05/25/nba-offseason-trades-warriors-hawks-timberwolves-hollinger/?source=user_shared_article
Hubert, you should own that take. Could end up one of the great takes on the board.
All I said was that the Celtics game 4 win was very rare and that the Heat are in trouble. I’m already right.
finally got to the let’s make a deal stage of stuff with work…
i don’t know, my instincts are telling me it might be best to follow this through…get the VA to assist with the disability discrimination filing, and see this whole process through to it’s conclusion…
not for the potentially bigger payday, but hopefully that will help to ensure other folks with a cognitive disability don’t get hustled by this company…
although they’ve stated to me they’ve done absolutely nothing wrong – they wanna give me 2 months severance pay/health coverage…funny – that’s exactly what i suggested three weeks ago…
i’m looking for two years now though…take me through til age 62…we shall see…
Commiserating with Hubert on that Heat +8.5 bet right now…
“i’m looking for two years now though…take me through til age 62…we shall see…”
Good luck, Geo…hope it works out!
I said on tues…game 6 …was gonna be interesting ….
Why? He’s the crown jewel of Billy Eppler’s trading deadline haul last year!
🙂
Owen, no the article didn’t get discussed. And it’s a great article. To quote:
It then goes on to name the names of nine stuck teams and discuss their individual situations: Atlanta, Brooklyn, Dallas, Golden State, LA Clippers, Miami, Milwaukee, Minnesota and Phoenix.
thanks z-man…yeah, the boy scout in me thinks i need to get with either the VA or possibly the DVA to get their backing in make this thing formal…
i don’t really need their money…even more so, i really don’t like getting hustled or taken advantage of – it’s a feeling of being violated…
i’ve been able to regain my wits, memory and strength a bit…i imagine like yourself, if i get knocked down, really good chance i’m gonna get up swinging…
Geo, whatever your motivation, so long as you think it’s worth it, that’s all that matters. There may come a point when you don’t but that isn’t now. As to resources, any and all should be considered…and know that winning means a lot more to you than it does to them, so if you can get help with your cause without much cost in time and money, why not?
But if it gets too stressful and drawn out and starts affecting your mental, physical, or financial health, and as you said you don’t need the money, maybe settle for a compromise short of 62. Ultimately, the goal should be to cruise into the next phase of your life as healthily and stress-free as possible. I still sometimes brood about the battles that I’ve won and lost in my job but at the end of the day, they get smaller and smaller in the rear view mirror.
What I took from that article was that a lot of teams overpaid for players and left themselves in a difficult situation, but one of them was NOT the Knicks.
That’s what I’ve been saying to the pessimists all along. At the end of the season there will be a handful of teams (call it 8) better than us, but few of them have both internal upside, flexibility, and assets like us.
The goal is scour the market, see what’s available, and try to get better without doing anything stupid. Whether that makes us a contender next year or not will be dependent on what deals become available and how much internal improvement we get, but it doesn’t have to be next year. We are young and have some time. Just keep moving forward.
I made the Celtics about 70% or so to win tonight.
I’d say Miami is somewhere in the 40% – 45% range to win game 6 at home if Vincent is back, but that’s a question mark.
If the Celtics win game 6 they are probably 80%-85% to take game 7 at home given the atmosphere and momentum they’ll have.
Right now I’d rate this as close to a pick’m series, but I might still make Miami a very mild favorite.