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59 replies on “Knicks Morning News (2023.05.10)”
Feeling mildly optimistic about tonight’s game, although I would feel much more so if Quickley were playing (still doubtful per Knicks PR).
I really think Thibs has to give McBride more minutes tonight, if for no other reason than to give Brunson a little bit of rest. McBride will also bring tenacity which is infectious — we need a bit of that right now.
In order to give Brunson rest, Thibs also needs to change his substitution pattern a little. Need RJ + Randle on the floor opening the 2nd quarter which means taking Randle out around 8 min into the 1st quarter. Randle will have to play 40 min tonight, so for me that means he gets his rest from the 8th to 12th minutes of the 1st/3rd quarters, and plays the entire 2nd and 4th. Ideally you’d give Brunson 5-6 minutes rest in the 2nd/4th so he plays 38 or so minutes.
I think you see what Obi has, and if he is throwing up airballs and not rebounding the ball, you give him his 4 minutes in the 1st half and probably play Hart or RJ at the 4 during the Randle-less moments in the 2nd half.
But in all likelihood – Brunson and Randle are playing 45 minutes each tonight in a do-or-die game, and we will get beasted on the boards again in the 4Q just like last game as our guys crumble from exhaustion.
I am really interested in how Thibs tweaks the defense. I really hope it is less doubling of Butler when he’s way outside the paint. And multiple people of mentioned it on twitter and on podcasts, but covering Strus with Brunson is a double-whammy because Brunson can’t contest Strus’s release point and also he spends so much energy chasing him around screens. Spo will probably have whoever Brunson is guarding run off a million screens and DHOs but at least guarding Vincent, Brunson has a chance to actually contest him.
Big game today, and although i’ve already prepared myself to go down in 5, i’d very much like to live another day. š
At times during game 4 they looked like their confident selves from the regular season and the Cavs series, but had soooo many mental errors that seemed stress related.
I decided to push myself to write a prediction every game so I’ll go with a win tonight, but I wouldn’t put my savings on it.
Interesting record i haven’t seen mentioned, it’s about Texas’ NBA teams and Cuban plays a (big) part on it.
A little history first:
1. Rockets left San Diego for Houston in 1971;
2. Spurs left the ABA to join the NBA for the 1976-77 season;
3. Mavs joined the NBA for the 1980-81 season;
This season, all three missed the playoffs (and the play-in for that matter), and it is the first season that the playoffs don’t feature a Texas team since 1976 (when only the Rockets were playing in the NBA). What about that? š
The Heat are genuinely unlikable. Not just because they’re up on the Knicks. They’re playing dirty, not hard (though admittedly by comparison they are playing harder than NY at the moment). This isn’t 90s Knicks toughness and sending a message, it’s Zaza levels of actually intentionally trying to hurt people.
Aside from all of the moving screens and other no calls mentioned previously, Bam stepped on Brunson’s ankle, paused when he realised it, then stepped a bit harder before stepping off; Caleb Martin planted his foot when contesting Brunson’s three and then moved it slightly when he saw where Brunson was going to land – that should have been an ejection and a suspension. And getting arguably the worst guy receiving playing time in the series, Zeller, to try and start a fight with Randle was just pathetic. Whatever you say about Julius, he was right to just laugh that off.
I have massive amounts of respect for Jimmy Butler, who I don’t think would ever do this kind of thing, but I can’t understand why the league wouldn’t do anything about some of the things his teammates have done…maybe Spo really does have the refs’ ears…
I was surprised the refs didn’t do anything about it, here’s a video that shows the play.
https://twitter.com/TheKnicksWall/status/1655747044206686210
I’m not feeling anything about tonight’s game. Monday’s game took too much out of me because it was frustrating to watch. It certainly was not Knick basketball at least 75% of the game. The entire offense consisted of Brunson dribbling then dribbling some more, Randle taking out of rhythm shots, and RJ getting to the cup whenever he wanted. Where was Grimes’ inclusion in the offense? Where was Mitch diving? Where was D Rose when the 2nd unit had no creators? Listen- I know Miami is a great defensive team. But it’s not like they had to try that hard with the lack of offensive versatility we had Monday. I’m not sure exactly how much can be attributed to the Heat being more physical, but I’m pretty sure a large chunk of it was poor offensive game-planning.
That said, I’ll watch tonight of course. But I’m damn near expecting us to lose because of how well Butler is playing, how poor the officiating is, and the masterclass Spoelstra has put on this series
Quote from Marcus Smart seems applicable to Knicks, particularly in light of Miami’s style referred to above:
Someone needs to channel Oak, Derek Harper or Mase. We’ve been meh at home this season and tonight we need a not in our house attitude.
I think that itās been so long since your team has played in a meaningful series that youāve forgotten that this is how itās supposed to feel to lose.
Congratulations, Leon & Co, for restoring bitterness and indignation to NY. Itās a step!
I am very thankful that we are still talking about an upcoming game in the beautiful month of May. Here’s to rooting for a Game 7 showdown vs. the Heat on Monday!
This team really needs a Draymond-type enforcer. Mitch is great at what he does, but he’s not really that type of player, and Randle, for better or worse, is our “scorer” and won’t go there.
Teams down 3-1 playing at home win at a very high clip, so it would be pretty devastating to lose tonight. Iām expecting a feel-good win with lots of help from the refs.
We’re DOOMED.
Strongly agree with Frank that McBride would be a very useful insertion. Weāve already seen once in December that his defensive impact can be season saving. And the Heat arenāt guarding our wings anyway.
But Thibs is 1-5 in game 5ās following that 0-7 mark in game 4. Doesnāt suggest the guy is going to make many impactful adjustments.
Obviously the odds against us winning this series are very long, and I have made my feelings known that despite regular season records, seeding, Vegas odds, etc., Miami is substantially better than us because when they have Butler, Bam and this rejuvenated version of Kyle Lowry on the floor they are the 3 best players in aggregate by a country mile, not to mention the advantages in coaching and playoff experience. But I will say this: when we play at our best, i.e. when Randle is in beast mode, Brunson is hitting 3’s and all the role players are excelling in their respective roles, we can beat anyone. I just don’t see Miami allowing all of that to happen…they are the ultimate disrupters, thanks in large part to that genius walking their sideline.
Let’s get a win for the hometown crowd tonight and shut down 7th Ave, and we can worry about how to win game 6 later.
Man Donnie is dropping the whole closet Heat fan thing and going full blown Rowdy Roddy Piper hit you over the head with a chair Heat fan.
Speaking of Kyle Lowry, has anyone else noticed how he plays like a free safety, just hurling his body into 50-50 ball situations until the whistle blows and even after? Remember when folks used to call him a choke artist in the playoffs? As a purist, I love watching him play. Brunson should take some cues from Lowry on how to play hard D at that size and shape.
I don’t buy the dirty player schtik, the step on Brunson’s ankle was incidental. The only truly dirty play I have seen this series was Caleb Martin’s flagrent on the 3-pt shot. Other than that, it’s been a pretty clean series.
Donnie, to make things a little interesting, how about a little wager?
– If the Knicks beat your Heat in 7 games, you come watch game 1 or 2 of the ECF with me, JK47, CDiggy, and every other KB poster willing to fly in for the occasion.
– And if Heat win… well… you don’t have to do that.
“I just donāt see Miami allowing all of that to happen”
Especially three games in a row.
Do you have the numbers for this? In 2023, it has already happened 3 times, and only the Lakers didn’t win on the road. Both Knicks and Heat won the first round series 4-1 on the road.
our problem hasn’t been defense… and it’s not really clear who would mcbride ‘stop’ … the guy who probably needs a shot is fournier since we’ve needed offense in this series like we need water in the desert… if defense really is a concern you can test him out whenever the corpse of duncan robinson hits the floor…
of course he probably should’ve gotten a shot awhile ago but better late than never….
Reading the tea leaves, I really think at least some of our performance can be chalked up to being more injured than we’re letting on. Begley has indicated Brunson is getting basically round-the-clock treatment, and Randle/Grimes/Mitch/Hart (not to mention IQ who is literally missing the games) have all looked varying degrees of “off” for lack of a better term.
Again, I don’t care to make excuses. Lord knows no one is 100% at this time of the year and the Heat are very much dealing with their own injuries. I guess I’m just probably drawing fewer sweeping conclusions than some here because of this.
Maybe now that we’ve established ourselves as a good team Thibs will feel more comfortable doing more load management in the regular sea–ahahahahahahahahahahahaha.
In all seriousness, I’d try to integrate Obi more into our game plan tonight for the simple reason that he might be the healthiest player on either team. I would also try to use him in ways other than “stand in the corner and chill” but that’s probably not changing now.
It’s been frustrating not to know if Julius is having another playoff melt-down or if he’s really hurt. Should I feel sympathetic or vituperative? I was really looking forward to getting some real playoff data points on him, and now I feel cheated.
Ditto with Mitch. Is he wounded or being out-schemed? I suspect a little of both (probably a lot of out-schemed, to be honest…).
https://theathletic.com/4504169/2023/05/10/nba-coach-analyzes-knicks-heat-series-julius-randles-ups-and-downs-and-more/
Good Katz piece. It’s an interview with an anonymous assistant coach with some takes a lot of us have already expressed. Namely, we should be targeting the Heat’s weaker defenders more, should try to steal some Obi/Randle minutes, and should at least see if Fournier and/or Rose can help.
I donāt, Cyber. But I do think itās pretty common knowledge that this is usually a free win for the home team.
Can you think of any other reason for us to be 3.5 pt favorites tonight?
What’s annoying is Randle only seems to be “hurt” on the defensive end… on the offensive end he’s throwing down dunks after the call and moving fairly well. We’ve seen this before, when things aren’t going his way … he doesn’t lead or try to inspire his guys, he thinks the only way to add value is by scoring the basketball, the definition of a non-winning player
I feel you, djphan, but the Fournier ship has sailed. He & Rose might as well not be on the bench.
Deuce is in the narrow slice of things Thibs might actually consider.
+1 — And, for whatever reason, Obi is the only player Thibs refuses to let play through some initial suckitude. Tonight, Obi, Deuce, and Grimes should let it fly.
I don’t think we even need serious changes from last game other than to not make dumb TOs.
We should do a better job attacking weak defenders and everything, and sure Randle will make a few dumb TOs regardless, but playing stupid cost us a lot more than last game’s point differential.
The fix is in. The NBA wants the refs to extend this series while ensuring the Heat win.
Agreed, EB. I just think we did better last game because rotations were more like the last half of our successful season. So: Keep Grimes a starter; play Obi more so Randle doesn’t get gassed and fuck up so much and foul out, and play Deuce in IQ’s minutes b/c of the injury. To be sure, I liked our team’s effort last game. They just made too many mistakes.
Deuce should get minutes against Lowry, who’s only 6 feet.
Oh man, i was expecting numbers to feel more optimistic about tonight. š š
This is usually a free win for the home team.
But most teams have better records at home than on the road. We don’t.
I don’t want the refs help, i want to win because the team got back to playing well. And yeah, we need to stop with the stupid TOs. Some TOs are because of Heat’s players applying pressure, but the rest are self inflicted. We must lead the playoffs in unforced errors, at least by my eye test. LOL
Maybe I should put some money on the Heat so I’ll be content with any outcome.
Mitch does not look right. He didn’t look right against Cleveland either and yet he played great. He just isn’t moving as well as he normally does and the second jump doesn’t seem to be there either. Just something leaden about his movement.
I think the matchup with Bam and Love is a much harder one for him.
I do think the injuries have taken the edge off our play but hard to know for sure. It certainly looks that way but maybe it’s Spo.
I forgot Atkinson he’s an assistant and can be interviewed*, the Bucks didn’t.
* with permission from his current team
at least we haven’t lost yet…
Itās really not self inflicted.
Itās not a complete coincidence that the whole team got dumb at once.
And itās not random that theyāre all shooting poorly.
Itās bc the players are confused. The Heat are prepared for what we do, and we donāt know what to do next.
… and it’s not that they’re all injured.
Danuel House. Out of the Sixers rotation … until last night’s Game 5 where he played 15 minutes and had 10 points/5 boards.
While he was out of the rotation, he wasn’t mothballed. Circumstances occured wherein he was deemed useful by his coaching staff, strategically or otherwise, and he played and played well.
Why does this kind of thing never happen with the Knicks?
I hope I am proven wrong, but the Thibs āthings are bad and Iām troubledā face probably wonāt rally the troops tonight.
All NBA coaches have their issues, though. Spo, for instance, keeps giving double digit minutes to the corpse of Duncan Robinson. 24 minutes in the last two games, in which Robinson has taken 14 shots and made 2 of them. While playing shitty defense and also handling the ball like he’s one of those Stonehenge guys.
To be fair, didn’t said corpse shoot 14/19 from three during the Bucks series? I’d be alright with Thibs running Evan Fournier’s severed head out there if it could do that.
Whenever Duncan Robinson brings the ball upcourt, I expect the other players to just start pointing at him and shouting, “Look at Duncan! Dude thinks he’s a ball handler!” Then they all break out laughing.
Show and don’t leave anything left on the court. That’s all we can hope for with a beat up team that looks a notch below the Heat.
It’s not that we don’t know what to do. We are not good at what they are giving us.
But really, that wasn’t even the problem last game. We shot well last game. The problem is what I said it was earlier in the week. Our highly rated offense this year was not a function of good passing, shooting, and great plays. It was a function of extra possessions (OREBs, TOs, getting to loose balls etc..). We outworked other teams. The Heat are outworking us. How much of that is due to an effort differential and how much is due to half our team being less than 100% fit after recent injuries is anyone’s guess. But we aren’t going to beat this team tonight unless we outwork them.
I think one of either Randle or Mitch is going to be traded in the off season (who knows maybe both). I spent a lot of time before the season started talking about how they aren’t an ideal fit. It wound up working better than I expected, so I dropped the subject. But I think that was mostly because Brunson was so good – even from 3. It just feels like these playoffs have exposed Randle and the Randle/Mitch combo a bit again. The ankle has been an issue for Randle, but he doesn’t adjust well and his effort level is all over the place. Mitch still can’t do anything but dunk. That hurts spacing and if he gets an OREB all you have to do is foul him. That just doesn’t seem like a good combo.
It’s due almost entirely to the fact that these are playoff games.
I get where this is coming from entirely, but I don’t think we should cast this as some sort of Thibsian failure of willpower or work ethic when it really isn’t that at all. The magic isn’t always in the work and the answer isn’t always to just work harder.
The spacing has been terrible in this series and the lane has gone back to being a mosh pit. The contrast with the Heat’s perpetually open lane is stark and obvious.
Fixing this for good is item 1 on the offseason to-do list.
Indeed.
I like Thibs. I just want to talk about his issues when his issues are killing us.
I love Mitch. A lot. But I think we should trade him for OG.
We have to be able to play 5 out basketball in the playoffs, and we can do it with OG and Hart.
IQ out. Expected bummer.
Iād rather keep Mitch.
RJ & Grimes letting the ball bounce off their hands out of bounds and Randle making a lazy backwards pass instead of a handoff that Vincent stole were 100% self-inflicted & avoidable.
This isn’t a game plan issue. These are unforced errors.
Mitch dropping a 4Q OReb out of bounds. Grimes making a lazy pass that gets picked in transition.
These are dumb TOs that have basically nothing to do with Miami or Thibs.
(turns on Mets game)
Hey, maybe Justin Verlander won’t be terrible
(watches 10 minutes, turns off Mets game)
The average expected value of a possession is a little over 1 point.
There were 2 fastbreaks for points off the above plays for 4 points.
The above plays cover the 8pt differential right there.
Randle third team all-NBA. Butler second.
SGA first. Imagine what he’d be if he could play three-on-three.
Doomed game thread.
https://knickerblogger.net/2023/05/10/2023-playoffs-round-2-game-thread-the-one-foot-in-the-grave-knicks-vs-heat-game-5/