Okay, a couple of things.
1. I think the Knicks are eventually trading for Donovan Mitchell
2. If they do trade for Donovan Mitchell, Immanuel Quickley is almost certainly heading to Utah in the deal
3. I think he is likely going to be joined by one of Quentin Grimes and Obi Toppin.
4. I think that there is at least a chance that the Knicks can offer other things that will hold their return on Mitchell to just one of those three guys, but it is unlikely.
So with that in mind, I was wondering what combination of two of those three guys would you be most willing to lose. While, again, firmly understanding that you don’t want to give up any of them, or trade for Donovan Mitchell to begin with.
Sorry, there are no polls available at the moment.
169 replies on “Let’s Expand the Grimes/Obi Debate to Include Immanuel Quickley”
IQ, Fournier, Cam + 4 1st round picks.
Retain one of the 2023 1st rounders, Obi, and Grimes.
I’ve said it before but it sounds like they want picks more than players.
Fournier, Rose, 5 1sts, and 2 swaps
Keep the Dallas pick and try to only trade two unprotected, but acquiesce to three if necessary.
I am completely unwilling to vote on this. The other poll was bad enough.
Anyway, if we trade Obi we have only Randle and Hunt at power forward and we don’t have many forwards in total anyway, so we’d be screwed by an injury and not in good shape at forward even without an injury. So even though I’m not not Obi’s biggest fan, I think we have to keep him. That means trading guards. Fournier and Rose are the ones we can send. I’m not in favor of adding four or five first round picks with them because Mitchell just won’t do enough for us, whatever his supposed market value.
They definitely want picks mostly, but they still definitely want players. They got a number of interesting players from Minnesota for Gobert on top of the picks they got in that deal. You can tell that there basically is a sort of “you can have everyone but this one guy” type of approach to these sort of deals. In the Gobert deal, it was McDaniels. Here, it’s one of the three – they likely can’t protect all three.
They want assets. There has to be a price where we keep everyone and just send picks and filler. If that price is too high we walk. I don’t know if I value Grimes more than some of our picks but I would definitely add picks instead of IQ or Obi. They are both worth considerably more than any one of our picks moving forward. If we get Mitchell we are probably out of the lottery at least for the next 3-5 years so that makes any pick short of a 2028 or 2029 pick almost surely out of the lottery and I would not trade either for a non-lottery pick.
Unless IQ or Obi brings the price down to just a couple of picks I leave both out of the trade and draw a hard line. Let’s make an offer and then let someone beat it. We should be in no rush. We have way more leverage than Utah.
The attitude towards this trade here and in the press seems to be you’re rich in picks and young players so trade away most of them. You’ll improve to a likely play-in team from a possible play-in team, (which isn’t really a good team either way); but, hey, you’ll have a star. Defense doesn’t matter if you have one of those. And anyway you’re the Knicks. You can’t expect patience. This is just what the Knicks do.
I’m so frustrated by the whole thing.
I’m not saying it isn’t frustrating, but this really is how these trades typically go. Ainge got the following for Rudy Gobert, who is clearly not seen as being as good of a trade asset as Donovan Mitchell:
• Malik Beasley
• Patrick Beverley
• Leandro Bolmaro
• Walker Kessler (No. 22 pick in 2022 Draft)
• Jarred Vanderbilt
• 2023 first-round pick
• 2025 first-round pick
• 2026 pick swap
• 2027 first-round pick
• 2029 first-round pick
He is not settling for less than that haul for Mitchell.
Now, if you think that means the Knicks should pass, I’m not disagreeing with you on that. I’m just saying that if this deal gets done, it’s not going to be for less than the package above, which means that five picks, Fournier and two of Grimes, IQ and Obi is the likely return.
I don’t agree, Brian. Each deal has it’s own circumstances, and now the Jazz have 2 problems they didn’t have when trading Gobert. This time around they need to do the trade, because you can’t tank with Mitchell on your team. And the teams wanting Mitchell don’t have the assets, on Gobert’s case there was the Raptors with assets that Ainge could use to extract a more insane deal from the Wolves. This is the Knicks running against themselves, and we should make a sane offer, it’ll be the best he’ll get. Worst case scenario, he doesn’t take it and there’s no deal. So be it.
Everybody in the media are saying we will, or in some cases we should, overpay. And i disagree. If you don’t hold your ground when you’re the only one that can make a fair offer, then when will you do it?
I agree with Geo, at the end of the last thread, i think Leon has passed the marshmallow test and is making fair proposals to Ainge. Now we’ll have to wait and see what the madman does. He’d be very stupid to decline one good young player (Quick) and 4 picks (2 unprotected). Myles Turner deal stupid, to be precise.
We’re going to have some help, some weeks from now, in the form of Mitchell asking out and stating the Knicks as the destination he wants. That’ll put pressure on Ainge to accept the deal on the table. Overpay is playing the poker game just as Ainge was expecting us to play, and that’s not how we should play our hand.
Danny Ainge is not going to take a worse deal than he got for Rudy Gobert. I can say that with pretty much near certainty. Danny Ainge will gladly see the Jazz pick at #15 or whatever rather than take less than he got for Gobert. He has Mitchell signed for three more seasons. This is Danny Ainge here. He is not getting forced into a trade he doesn’t want to do. Daryl Morey let Ben Simmons sit out pretty much an entire season until he got the package he wanted for him, and you think Danny Ainge is going to be forced by a Mitchell trade demand when Ainge would just as soon have the Jazz lose games? Mitchell can sit out all the games he wants, Ainge will just save some salary.
Gobert was more valuable to the Timberwolves than Mitchell to us. For the Timberwolves he was the last piece they needed to be a real contender (or at least they think that). Teams are willing to pay more under those circumstances. He’s definitely not making us an instant contender. If Ainge thinks the Knicks should act like he is that last piece, our management should tell him differently. If he doesn’t want to hear that then we should walk.
Be realistic, do you think acquiring Mitchell would make us a real contender?
I will also add that Ainge thinks defense wins championships. That’s how he built the Celtics. I agree with him. Now he wants to trade a no defense pointzz machine and get our best guard defenders in return. It’s not a good deal for the Knicks.
Of course not, but the hope is that it makes the Knicks an enticing landing spot for the next star who wants out. You know, some guy who wants to come to New York to team up with three-time All-Star Donovan Mitchell that wouldn’t come to team-up with Quentin Grimes and Immanuel Quickley. I am not saying that this is a good plan, but only that it is the plan. And heck, I can’t say with a certainty that it won’t work (like I can say with a near certainty that Danny Ainge is not trading the Knicks Mitchell for less than he got for Gobert. 😉 ).
Just for the sake of the argument, let’s compare the deals.
We can add a swap in 2024 and that’s it, we are already paying too much.
Final deal: Fournier, DRose, Cam, Deuce, Rokas, 2 unprotected, 2 protected, 2 swaps
This beats the Gobert deal by a hair, and we’re not even sending a single one of Quick, Grimes and Obi.
The Knicks are not getting Mitchell without losing at least one of IQ, Obi and Grimes (and probably two of them).
If you do not think the Knicks should acquire Mitchell if he costs that much, then hey, fair enough, I’m not arguing with ya.
But it will cost at least one of IQ, Obi and Grimes (and probably two of them).
This is really funny because “officially” (wink wink) Leandro Bolmaro was selected in 2020 (1st round, 23st pick) by… The New York Knicks, and later traded in the 3-teams deal that landed us IQ.
🙂
It will have to be Grimes, Rose, Cam, Rokas, Keels + our 2023 first (top-3 protected), 2025 first (top-5 protected), and the three firsts we got for #11.
That’s probably too much but it will still happen, I’m guessing.
I don’t see the Jazz taking Rose over Fournier. They’re also likely going to insist on at least two fully unprotected picks. But you did include Grimes. That is definitely more realistic just by virtue of that.
One of Quick, Grimes and Obi, i can do. More than that, i would walk away. But if one of the young guys go, i’d take the swaps out of the deal, 4 picks is enough if we’re sending a very good prospect.
I agree with your first sentence, not the second. Gobert was a godfather offer, and they do not necessarily set new benchmarks (see Melo trade). Maybe Ainge wasn’t ready to tear it down until Minny called? His logic might be that the godfather Gobert haul + decent Mitchell haul justifies the tear down. And rather than focus on the Net’s tear down trade (wins big as aggressive negotiator), perhaps this is more like the Philly trade (trade seemed fair at the time but wins big as talent evaluator).
I’m starting to be against the deal, let’s see what the team can be with the important addition of Brunson. And then solve Fournier and Randle during the season, if they don’t fit the new core (Randle, probably) and/or if they’re in the way of the young players to getting minutes (Fournier?).
Apparently, according to a Jazz beat writer’s recent mailbag, Ainge was quietly shopping both Mitchell and Gobert before the Gobert trade.
I think it’s perfectly reasonable to be against the deal. I’m certainly not selling the deal, ya know? 😉 I’m not Windhorsting it out here (or whoever the other guys who are, like, “The Knicks have to get Mitchell!”).
I’m with Brian on Ainge’s insistance on at least one and probably 2 of Grimes, Obi and IQ. If they aren’t included, the draft pick haul would increase, at least until the trade deadline.
Now, Ainge may have changed (I doubt it) or might have different pressures in Utah than in Boston (also doubt it) or may realize that the price for Gobert was inflated by Minny’s willingness to go all “Melo trade” on him (also doubt that.)
Where I disagree with Brian is on believing that a trade will eventually happen with the Knicks on Ainge’s terms. I am banking on Wes, Aller, Perrin and Thibs having either enough agreement or enough discord for Leon to wait. I think they LOVE IQ and Obi and probably Grimes to a lesser degree, and aren’t going to just give them away as throw-ins.
I therefore will guess that only one of those 3 will be lost in a deal and it will likely be Grimes, and that the draft pick haul will only include 2 unprotected picks. Otherwise a trade simply won’t happen.
Hey, I said that they might get away with only losing one of the guys! I’m only insisting on him beating the Gobert trade, which I think he can do with picks instead of players (but I think he’ll probably end up doing it with players and thus two of them will go, but I definitely can see a scenario where only one goes).
Also, why are we acting like Mitchell is better than Gobert?
On TheAthletic’s Top125, Gobert is 16th (tier 2C) and previous tiers were 2B and 2C, Mitchell is 27th (3B) and previous tiers were 3B and 3B. Always below Gobert on this list, and he’s more valuable?
Edit: In 2020-21 and 2021-22, ESPN has Mitchell around 18 and Gobert around 25, but Sports Illustrated is the opposite (Gobert around 19 and Mitchell around 24).
Not voting, Brian. Sorry, I’m not going to play your sadistic little game regarding a trade none of us should want.
(I think I’m in the Anger stage?)
Not necessarily better, but much better trade value. There’s a four-year age gap. That’s huge.
I’m not seeing the gap in trade value. Simmons is young and was valued the same as Harden. And less than PG13, that is also older. As i said, circumstances make the deals, and if Ainge can’t see it, it’s him that is wrong, not us.
Of course circumstances matter, and the circumstances are very good for Ainge to get a better deal than he got for Gobert.
Ok, let’s agree to disagree. I just hope Leon doesn’t overpay, and if by that it means there’s no deal, i’m good with that.
Me too, Alan. I don’t think i’d help Ainge if i saw him hanging on the edge of a bridge. LOL
Again, I agree with Brian that perception-wise, Mitchell is the better asset. However, Ainge found the perfect buyer in Minny.
Simmons’ value was not the same as Harden’s because Simmons had not played all year due to a serious mental condition exacerbated by his star teammate and coach throwing him under the bus, can’t shoot, and has a bad back. Comparing Simmons to Harden is similar to (but clearly not as extreme as) comparing Randle to Durant. Age is trumped big time by both talent and circumstances.
The same feeling as trying to answer Brian’s poll questions
“I don’t think i’d help Ainge if i saw him hanging on the edge of a bridge. LOL”
And you probably don’t remember his squirrely ass as a player….very hateable!
However, I can say that Ainge is exactly the kind of GM we need around here. So I have no qualms with his negotiation strategy at all, just wish we weren’t on the muzzle end. I’d probably help him off the edge of a bridge and then kick him in the nuts.
i am a terrible negotiator in general, yet I think I would be a way better negotiator in this deal than most of you people. I’ve written it before- every negotiation is different. While there is precedent set by previous deals, a terrible deal (the Gobert one qualifies as such) does not necessarily reset the market. Like just because Deshaun Watson signed a fully guaranteed deal doesn’t mean every QB going forward is going to get one.
What is Ainge’s BATNA here (best alternative to a negotiated agreement)? Running it back w Mitchell is fraught with a ton of risk — a) Jazz win 34 games and play themselves out of a real chance at Scoot/Wembayana, b) Mitchell gets hurt, c) (doubt this) Mitchell poisons the well at Utah a la Jimmy Butler, d) another star wants out and NYK sends their asset trove there instead. He can hope that OKC or New Orleans decides to throw picks at him, but I really doubt that. But his BATNA outside a Knicks deal is a pupu platter from his mortal enemy Pat Riley, who himself needs to make deals with a 3rd party just to have anything plausible to offer.
Ainge’s leverage on Minnesota was that it was fully plausible that Utah could run it back with Gobert and Mitchell. But now that hand has been played. Gobert is gone, they traded their best 3/D player in Royce O’Neal, and have a bunch of spare (if interesting) parts. It’s clear what Ainge wants to do – he wants to stink and get high picks.
On the other hand, what is Rose’s BATNA? The Knicks team is already somewhat interesting, and we have lots and lots of assets that are not depreciating yet (ie. all these picks). I think there’s probably at least a solid 40% of Knick fans that would be fine playing the kids, getting our own high draft pick, and then striking next summer. The Knicks will sell out the Garden regardless. Rose has to draw a line and not cross it. He made his bones as a professional negotiator – I think he’ll do the right thing
We’re also in that funny stage where it’s “Woj knows all” until Woj says “the Knicks are a motivated suitor for Mitchell” and then it’s “What does Woj know?”
“I’m only insisting on him beating the Gobert trade”
Then that’s where the disagreement lies, if there even is one. I’m not sure what “beating” the Gobert trade means. If it means that Gobert set a market, well, sure, but that doesn’t artificially boost Mitchell’s market per se. Ainge still has to abide by the rules of supply and demand, taking the pressures of the circumstances into account. That’s why waiting is key. Leon should ignore the blowhards in the media and just wait until circumstances change. There should be zero pressure on the Knicks end. Fans will love the product with or without Mitchell.
If anything, Leon has resisted considerable pressure to sell low on Randle, or to prematurely sign Mitch, or to back off of Brunson due to Cuban’s bluster. Why should we believe that he will fold like a lawn chair now?
Derrick Rose in Donovan Mitchell trade rumors
It’s crazy how annoyingly similar he is to the guys we’d love to have here, right?
Exactly what i was trying to say, that they’re both talented and age wouldn’t make such a difference.
It’s funny, if we held firm and let’s say hypothetically Miami swooped in with some godfather offer, there would be 2 groups with completely opposite reactions:
1) Knickerbloggers and knowledgeable Knicks fans “thank god we dodged that bullet, let’s run with what we have”
2) NBA talking heads “it’s LOL Knicks once again”
And not to beat a dead horse, but leverage and the quality of the player have to be taken into account.
The most lopsided deals in recent years:
1) Harden -> Nets — some leverage in that KD/Kyrie wanted Harden and they were basically running the franchise. But most importantly, pre-fat Harden was literally one of the greatest offensive players in NBA history.
2) Jrue Holiday-> Bucks — trade for Jrue, keep Giannis. That is huge leverage.
3) Anthony Davis -> Lakers — need to keep Lebron happy, very small window due to LBJ’s age. Also AD is a truly impactful player on both sides of the ball.
4) PG -> Clippers — trade for PG, get Kawhi. That is huge leverage. Also I think it is fair to say that PG at that point was a better player than Donovan Mitchell — ie. 1B option, tremendous defender whereas Mitchell is a 1B option and at best an average and small defender.
Unless there is another shoe to drop (ie. some other star is willing to come to NYK right now but wants Mitchell on the team – seems unlikely that that is all worked out already), the only urgency to get this done is really the “Leon Rose was brought here to get a star” hysterical media narrative. While that might be true, he was also brought here to bring sanity to the front office.
I don’t want to send more than one of Quick, Grimes and Obi, so my feeling was like this.
I think the Knicks have more leverage than being given credit for. Yes Minny gave up a bunch of picks but our picks (we just finished as 11 seed and our ahem track record) are more likely going to be more valuable from Ainges pov than Minny’s, so quality does not equal quantity. Pretty sure both San Antonio and Utah (non FA destinations) want to build through the draft, in a historically good draft, so want to be as bad as possible. Mitchell wants to be in NY bc of family and business ties. Is there another team as bad as the Knicks with picks where Mitchell would want to go? If Miami is Ainge’s BATNA we just need to heat Miami’s offer, not Minnesota’s
Rumor is that the Knicks’ last offer was two of their own picks and all four of the acquired picks. Jazz turned that down, but I’d love to know which players were involved in that deal. It would really give us a good sense of where the deal sits now.
Regardless of what happens, I’m glad the NYK pumped the brakes on this. Ainge was trying to pull an oakey-doke move, hoping the NYK would just rush into a foolish deal, kind of like Minny did. Rose was not having it. That gives me confidence that the NYK will make a good deal or no deal. In fact, as time goes on, they are in a stronger bargaining position with each passing day. At the end of the day, I’d say this trade is going to be the 4 picks, Fornier, and Grimes. We will all be dancing in the streets and calling Rose a genius if that happens. The NYK can get that if they (1) are willing to just walk away and (2) wait it out.
Frank, I would say that there will be teams with more pressure to make a move than us because they are closer to contending and they have age/contract concerns. That’s why Minny shot its wad on Gobert. No one else would have paid that.
The only pressure on the Knicks is the “lol Knicks for 20 years and we are not rebuilding so grab a star while the getting is good” kind of pressure. Teams like Miami, Boston, Phoenix, Denver, Atlanta, LA Clippers are all under way more pressure than us to get another star but don’t necesarily have the assets. We are roughly in the same boat as SAC, CLE, WAS, TOR, CHA (in terms of the win curve, not methodology of course.) Maybe one of those teams starts feeling desperate and is willing to give up a boatload of assets for Mitchell.
The Hornets strike me as a wild card in this offseason. They have to do something about Miles Bridges and have already made some win-now moves.
Indiana is also in a weird place. They could sort of pivot in either direction.
The major risk for teams trying to trade for Donovan is that while there are 3 years of team control, that’s it. It’s pretty clear he wants to come to NY or Miami (or at least it is plausible enough that that’s what he wants). Sure things can change if the team is great, but by all reports he wants a bigger market than Utah, and Sac/Cle/Charlotte don’t really meet that criteria, and while Toronto and DC are big markets, I don’t see Toronto wanting to do that (already one tiny guard in FVV, plus trading all your picks unprotected does NOT seem like a Masai-type move), and Washington doesn’t really have any trade assets to speak of either. Ainge is certainly smart enough to ask for distant unprotected picks — do these teams really want to give up those picks when there’s probably a 70% chance that Mitchell will try and get traded again, or worse, go to unrestricted FA?
All these media people who are just assuming we’re going to give up the farm for Mitchell – I would wager a lot of money that they do not do their own negotiating of their own contracts, and instead, have an agent whose job it is to make a good deal. (Now we might give up a lot for Mitchell, but I just do not believe it is going to be what Brian or others have suggested – ie. needing to “beat” the Gobert deal).
Re: Charlotte – they are pick-encumbered because of the incinerated pick which has protections out to 2025 – as far as I can tell, they cannot deal one of their own picks until 2027. They have the lottery protected Denver 2023 pick we sent them but i don’t imagine that has a ton of value. Their best trade asset is of course Lamelo, but they’re not trading him. They have Bridges who is likely not going to play again for a very long time if ever, and a huge negative contract in Hayward, and what else to trade?
Teams can be plenty desperate, but if they don’t have assets, they’re not in the game for a Mitchell-type trade.
They don’t need to offer more than what the Jazz got for Gobert. They just need to offer more than the Jazz got for Gobert if they want to acquire Donovan Mitchell. The Knicks can always walk away. However, they’re apparently already offering the Jazz more picks than the Jazz got for Gobert, so it is unlikely that they don’t beat the Gobert offer if this deal gets done.
Charlotte can just drop the protections on this year’s pick and then trade all the picks they want. It would be dumb, but it’s possible.
You can’t drop protections without the team that has the pick agreeing to it. They’d need to send something SAS way, for them to agree to do it.
Voted to keep Obi. But, like others here, I think if we lose two of IQ, Obi, and Grimes, then we’ve lost to Ainge. Walk away.
Charlotte is an interesting case, because Ainge looks to be on the team “let’s go get the wife-beater on the cheap, because we have no moral compass”. This way, CHA can send a much better young player, he was probably on his way to signing a max contract until he did the assault. If Ainge agrees to get him on a sign and trade, he’s a very good player and even better for Ainge he’ll be out all year (i doubt it’s more than one full season) allowing the team to have a very good young player on the roster and tank at the same time. Win-win (again, depending on your moral compass).
you’re assuming there’s no downside for Utah in keeping Mitchell — this is just not true. Every day he is on the Jazz, the lower his trade value is. And every win he gets for Utah makes their draft pick worse. Remember (and this has been corroborated by Zach Lowe and others) – the main point of leverage Ainge had over Minnesota was the plausible possibility Utah could just run it back. That point of leverage is gone. Ainge wants to be bad and he wants to be bad right now.
Look, I’m sure if a deal gets done it’ll end up being something like 5 or 6 picks. But I’m not giving up 4 unprotected picks, I’m not giving up swap rights every year in between, and I’m not sending our young players if it’s going to be that many picks (ie. ok to send Fournier and Rose). If they want Quickley, then they get one less pick.
I would give 2 completely unprotected picks, one top 3 protected pick, 3 other-team picks, Rose+Fournier+IQ but beyond that, I’d walk away. Some other star will shake loose next year, and I am sure they would take that deal.
But that is more than the Jazz got for Gobert!
i doubt it’s more than one full season
From my understanding, there is a good chance he winds up in jail, and if so for more than “a season”.
“Rumor is that the Knicks’ last offer was two of their own picks and all four of the acquired picks. Jazz turned that down, but I’d love to know which players were involved in that deal. It would really give us a good sense of where the deal sits now.”
Ugh, that already feels like too much, meaning probably both 2023 firsts (ours and Dallas’). Grimes, filler, and 5 firsts is my personal max offer.
It’s funny that people are getting mad at BC for stating a few blatantly obvious propositions. He’s already said most of this stuff more succinctly, but to reiterate:
-Ainge is fine from a leverage standpoint. Going into the season with Mitchell isn’t ideal, but I’m 100% sure Ainge will do it if he can’t find a deal to his liking. Mitchell is signed for three more seasons and doesn’t seem like the kind of guy to make things untenable in the locker room. At a bare minimum, Ainge isn’t taking a deal he can’t at least argue is more than he got for Gobert.
-The Knicks aren’t screwed from a leverage standpoint, BUT it was perhaps unwise for Leon Rose to put himself in a position where he absolutely has to make a trade like this *eventually.* You can say it shouldn’t be this one and maybe you’re right, but Ainge can credibly say “good luck trading for someone better before your young players are paid and your picks vest.”
-There’s no chance this deal gets done without us including at least one good player, and I would say there’s a 75% or better chance it takes at least two. Even with all the draft equity involved, Gobert still fetched Vanderbilt who was a huge part of Minny’s rotation at age 22 and is regarded as a sleeper future DPOY in some circles. I am assuming from the get go that IQ will be in this deal and hoping we can limit the young player damage to just him.
Noble, if the trade is announced next Monday, how will that affect the bar exam you sit next Tuesday?
I voted to trade Grimes and IQ because Julius Randle simply cannot be on this basketball team. We all agree his style of play for the last three seasons, even the good one, would fit terribly with this roster, and I think the idea he can revert back to how he last played four seasons ago is fanciful.
Randle’s positional percentile finishing at the rim:
17-18 (LAL): 68th
18-19 (NOP): 54th
19-20: 19th
20-21: 16th
21-22: 15th
People completely disregard the possibility that there’s been a physical drop off that coincides with his unwillingness to play like he did in New Orleans, but the numbers speak for themselves. He probably can’t revert to this style of play successfully by sheer force of will even on the off chance he wants to. He doesn’t like being a roll man and probably wouldn’t even be a good one anyway.
Obi Toppin has finished at the rim in the 75th and 66th percentiles respectively in his two seasons, by the way.
“Noble, if the trade is announced next Monday, how will that affect the bar exam you sit next Tuesday?”
If there’s an essay topic I blank on, and there will be, I will use the opportunity to write down all my Donovan Mitchell takes and hope the grader either has a good sense of humor or is a like-minded Knicks fan.
I don’t know how fast of a test-taker you are, but what I found helpful was circling each answer I knew I nailed (including the points I knew I hit in the essays) so that I could add it up and have a pretty darn good idea that I passed, as the bar exam works (well, at least it used to work. I assume it’s the same, just slightly harder than it was back in the day) as “if you get X correct, you know you passed.” That only works if you take tests fast, of course.
i highly doubt that’s the case… the Minny deal was them topping off the win curve when they had enough young players to clear the cupboard and not actually need them.. nobody else is in that same position… we have the picks but we’re not good…. miami is short on the contention window and young players and so is hesitant to send that kind of draft haul… we’re in a market where Kevin Durant is getting yawns….
when you put it together it’s just highly unlikely they’ll get that kind of haul .. and they are HEAVILY incentivized to take a moderate deal… like the Murray deal…. since i’m pretty sure Ainge very much prefers to go all-in tanking by clearing Conley and company but Mitchell is holding it up… at the end of the day a top 5 pick is going to be worth more than what they get back in any of those deals and if anyone understands that it’s Ainge…. and this is one of those years where you absolutely want a top 5 pick….
If we offered 6 first rounders and Ainge turned it down we need to say “thanks, no thanks” and walk away. That is fucking ridiculous. It’s Donovan Mitchell, not Kevin Durant.
I hope we do walk away. We can be a much better team this next season with the addition of Brunson and Hart. If we come out of the gate strong, our leverage only increases. Keeping Mitchell on a team that isn’t bad enough to full tank but isn’t competing for the playoffs is not a good situation for Ainge long term. Donovan is in his prime. He might play good soldier (or he might not) but even if he does, it is not in Ainge’s long term interest to hold on to him.
I would love to see the Knicks walk away from this, get reamed by ESPN and talk radio for not doing the deal and then come out next season a much improved team.
Oh ok, then women are more protected in the states than here. We had not so long ago a judge that said the infamous “she had it coming” while justifying the sentence, so you get the picture. I sure hope that judge is no longer on the job, but things move (very) slowly when it comes to justice here.
“F” what Ainge wants
“F” the T-Wolves and their huge overpay for Gobert
It’s all irrelevant.
The only thing that’s relevant is what’s in the best interests of the Knicks LONG TERM (not this year or even next). That means this deal is about the price paid, the fit, and what assets we have left over to replenish the team and eventually make another deal. By all those standards, this is a dumb deal and we should walk away.
If Ainge is OK with Mitchell starting the season Utah, good for him.
If Miami wants to try to get some picks for their players to sweeten the deal, have at it Pat. You need one more player and have a tight window. That’s your problem.
Our problem is not fvcking up our chances of an eventual trip to the promised land with a premature ejaculation of assets.
I think it’s a good time for Shams and Woj to suggest the Knicks are looking into trading for Kevin Durant and are offering 3 unprotected picks, 2 other first rounders, Immanuel Quickley, Derrick Rose, and Evan Fournier.
Woj reporting that the Knicks want Donovan but arent willing to move everything to get him.
https://twitter.com/bigknickenergy_/status/1549018469403922434?s=21&t=HQh01SnHTz-YtzxslyPsVA
Theres a few downsides to holding onto Donovan for the Jazz that includes screwing up the tank for Wemby. If Donovan has any injury that will decrease his value and if the Jazz are a lottery team without Rudy that makes Donovan look worse and his value decreases as well.
Right now is probably the highest his value ever will be and I’m sure both the Jazz and Knicks know this.
Danny Ainge just gonna get all 3 anyway.
LOLOL
Let us forget perception for a moment. The asking price for first of Gobert or Mitchell to be traded should be the higher than the second, because it is tougher to break it has more value to keep a 55-wins team than a 40-wins team. Not only that, but Ainge has already traded some vets. Now It is in Utah’s best interest to trade Mitchell, who is likely to be pissed that they traded their vets for picks, for the purpose of having a high pick.
Donovan Mitchell is a very good player and logically, Utah will receive a good amount of offers from all teams. For the Knicks, Donovan is:
– A very good player
– A player that fits the age of the rest of the team
– A good moment to convert picks into talent as in the next two years most of the team will be in their prime
– Does not play a position of need
– A likely bad fit with the rest of team
So, a mix of good and bad. It is fair to say that there is lots of upside and lots of risk to the trade. So given that, and that Utah has to be motivated to do the trade, I think the Knicks should do the following:
1) For now, just beat other team’s offers. Other teams have been offering way less than 5 picks and 2 young players. Make it 3 picks and a young player, or 2 picks and 2 young players. We probably beat other team offers with that.
2) If Utah considers that it is not enough, and goes into the season with Mitchell waiting higher offers and IF we are a solid playoff team by the trade deadline (let us say 48-win pace) then consider improving the offer. If we are not, then stick to our original offer.
So, do not throw a ridiculous offer until the trade deadline, when we have more information about our own…
I still think we should walk away, but I know we probably won’t.
So comparing to the Gobert deal he got 4 picks, 1 swap, 3 lowish value young players, and filler.
IQ and Toppin are more valuable than any of the young players Minnesota traded away. I think Rokas, McBride, and Reddish are a similar value package to Kessler, Bolmaro, and Vanderbilt.
So to equal we need 4 picks, 1 swap, filler (Fournier), Rokas, McBride, and Reddish.
I would offer a second swap since we are giving them one less unguaranteed pick.
That would be (23,25,27) Knicks picks, Detroit pick, (24,26) pick swaps, Fournier, Rokas, McBride, and Reddish.
Or I would switch out Rokas, McBride, and Reddish for Rose and the Washington pick. So:
(23,25,27) Knicks picks, Detroit pick, Washington pick, (24,26) pick swaps, Rose, and Fournier.
Those two hauls at least equal the Gobert trade and let Ainge win the press conference and still leave us with assets. I would personally prefer to just walk away but if we must do a trade those trades are the maximum I would give up.
An even better move would be 4 picks, 2 swaps, plus Rose and Fournier and just call Ainge’s bluff and walk away if he says no. We shouldn’t be in any rush. We can wait, trade deadline, next summer, whatever. Just put that trade on the table and say let us know when you want it.
Madison Square Garden Entertainment is in the midst of some shareholder litigation, in which plaintiffs allege the merger between MSGE and MSG Networks Inc. devalued the stock value to the benefit of MSGE CEO James L. Dolan and his family. But this securities case is the mere background over the real story, which is just how petty some parties can get.
You see, Hal Weidenfeld, senior vice president for legal and business affairs at MSGE, sent a letter to the shareholders’ counsel banning them from all MSE venues — including Madison Square Garden, Radio City Music Hall, and the Chicago Theater — until the matter is resolved.
https://abovethelaw.com/2022/07/the-latest-in-litigation-hotness-pure-pettiness/
““F” what Ainge wants
“F” the T-Wolves and their huge overpay for Gobert”
**********************************************
And fuck the fucking Diaz brothers!!
YEah I was trying to make this point the other day. Ainge has less leverage now that Gobert has already been traded. The team is no longer a 50 win playoff team without Gobert. Sure, he can hold on to Mitchell for as long as he wants, but Mitchell will make them far more competitive. They’ll be in the dreaded no man’s land that many posters on this blog wish we would avoid. So if Ainge want’s a full rebuild, he should want to trade Mitchell now, not later. And this doesn’t even factor in what happens if Mitchell gets upset playing for a non-competitive team during his prime or gets hurt.
So it is in their interest to trade him sooner than later. Therefore, it doesn’t matter if he got such a huge haul for Gobert. These trades for stars are independent of each other and each one is a unique situation. And the Knicks aren’t in a desperate situation to trade for a star. We’re in that middle zone of teams but we got lots of young players, upgraded with Brunson and have lots of picks. We can wait to see if another star emerges to trade for or just see if our upgraded team is more competitive. I mean, what if Brunson fixes a lot of our problems and RJ breaks through and Randle bounces back? Suddenly we’re a good playoff team and the value of all of our young players goes up.
So I would call his bluff. Offer four or five picks plus Fournier and/or Rose. Throw in Rokas or Cam or McBride but that should be it. We should want to keep our youngsters on the team. If we trade two of IQ, Obi and Grimes, we have far less depth and any picks we make will take a while to develop into good rotation players all while Brunson and Mitchell are in their prime. We should want to keep those players because they can contribute now to a playoff team.
Anybody read any good books lately…?
All these comps to other trades are pointless. Ainge doesn’t look at it like “this guy’s worth x so this guy has to be more.” He looks at it like “what do you got?” And then he takes almost all of it.
If the Knicks get Mitchell, the cost will be something like this:
– Obi Toppin
– Immanuel Quickley
– Fournier or Rose
– our pick in 2023 (unprotected)
– our pick in 2024 (unprotected)
– unprotected swap rights in 2025
– our pick in 2026 (unprotected)
– unprotected swap rights in 2027
– our pick in 2028 (unprotected)
– whichever of the Milwaulkee/Washington/Detroit picks he wants
And at the end of the day there will be people declaring it a win because “we got a star” and we managed to keep Quentin Grimes.
Thought bubble experiment. Let’s pretend Donovan was on our team and we had the chance to trade him for Quentin, Obi, IQ and a bunch of picks. I say, yes. With all the upside of our youth and all those picks we have a chance to get a player (or more than one) as good as Donovan. Or we can make a deal for a player better than Donovan, and pay less, in a less overheated market.
Plus everyone is acting like Evan Fournier and Derrick Rose are throw ins. This trade is not feasible.
“Anybody read any good books lately…?”
Ann Patchett
If we’re actually willing to give up 5 picks plus Obi/IQ I wonder if there’s a non-Mitchell deal out there that makes more sense from a fit standpoint. To me that kind of package should put some “untouchable” players on other teams in play.
– our pick in 2023 (unprotected)
– our pick in 2024 (unprotected)
– unprotected swap rights in 2025
– our pick in 2026 (unprotected)
– unprotected swap rights in 2027
– our pick in 2028 (unprotected)
If I knew we were gonna be a perennial playoff team, yes I’d do it. So, for this, I’d need Kyrie and KD (without the baggage). Even early playoff rounds don’t justify this. I’m probably done if something like this happens. I can only assume it won’t. Not for Donovan Mitchell. I think it’d be worse than the Melo Drama. Him and a healthy Amar’e was a decent plan…
Grimes made the all Summer League First Team. Hang a banner now!
https://twitter.com/IanBegley/status/1549093819563524098
The others: Cam Thomas, Tari Eason, Keegan Murray, and Sandro Mamukelashvili
Yes, if the Knicks had had four straight playoff flame-outs, I and I dare say a lot of the KB community and fanbase would be looking to change things up and getting a bunch of unprotected 1s from a meh organization and an influx of young talent like IQ and Obi would look very appealing.
With Spida soaking up the usage, and backed by the best rim protector in basketball, Utah has flailed miserably in the playoffs for FOUR straight years. This can’t be repeated often enough. I like the guy, and he’s a nice player, but it really looks objectively like Spida is one of those dudes who’s just good enough to lose with. (*)
The prices being bandied about are ludicrous. Full stop. Spida is not worth these kind of packages — which is why none of the other three bidders are offering anything close. Nor would the Knicks be getting something “extra” which drove up packages for people like Jrue and Paul George.
Walk away, Leon. It isn’t worth it.
(*) It’s possible he isn’t, too — but I ain’t giving up five or six firsts and two nice young cheap pieces to find out for myself.
And Murray was named Summer League MVP. Was probably Grimes’ award to lose before that title game.
Hubert – There is no reason for us to throw in both IQ and Toppin if we are also giving away 4 unprotected picks, 2 pick swaps, and a couple protected picks. Just the picks you were offering were too much without IQ and Obi, add them and the pick haul has to go down. They are both as valuable as any of the picks we are putting into the trade so including them has to decrease the pick haul. One less pick for each of them.
Plus drawing the line at Grimes is stupid he is less valuable than both Obi and IQ.
Ainge has the right to demand whatever he wants but we also have the right to say no and walk away. We do not need to trade for Mitchell, we are in no rush, and there isn’t some other team waiting to beat our best offer. 4-5 picks, 2 swaps, no IQ, Obi or Grimes. That has to be our best offer, anything else cripples our ability to make future moves and destroys our depth.
The Knicks should have already shot down the notion that they will offer “more” for Mitchell than Minny gave up for Gobert. That trade is done…it was for a different player to a different team in different circumstances (a team going all in for a final piece of its puzzle).
If he wants some artificial number of picks, then he can have a couple of second rounders to fill his spreadsheet requirement.
I agree with everyone saying we should hold firm. I’ve set the bar at IQ, filler, 3 unprotected picks, and a protected pick but that was more of my “wouldn’t be out on the team for five years bar” than my “I think this would be a smart trade to make” bar. I definitely wouldn’t mind if we held firm at a lower offer than that, in fact I’d be pleasantly surprised.
However I do want to add that the idea that we have all the leverage here is ludicrous. Leon Rose has announced to the world that he intends to trade for a star. Doing so is literally the event on which he’s based his entire strategy. Nothing about his “plan” makes sense if that does not happen, all he’s got if he doesn’t make such a trade is praying he makes a Giannis-level draft pick at some point.
This damages our credibility when we say we’re content to walk away in fairly obvious ways. I would go as far as saying it advantages Utah from a leverage perspective. They have multiple options with regards to Mitchell while we don’t have multiple options when it comes to a star trade.
If our team was better we’d have more credibility as we could say we’re content with the current state of the team, but that’s laughable right now. If our team was worse we’d have more credibility as we could say absent a Mitchell trade we’ll just enter the Wembanyama sweepstakes to get our star, but that’s out of the question.
Leon has said that’s his goal but he has also been pretty clear that he doesn’t have a deadline for that to happen and he wants to build the team slowly and make that move when the time/player is right. He said that in his end of the season newsletter to season ticket holders.
So yeah, he wants to trade for a star but I don’t believe he is in a rush to do so just to say he did it.
A somewhat similar situation happened to another NY GM just a couple months ago.
Joe Douglas tried trading for Tyreek Hill and lost out.
Ergo the whole world knew that JD wanted a Big Time Wide Receiver.
Lo and behold, Deebo Samuel was potentially available, with all the connections between him, Saleh, Mike LaFleur, the perfect scheme fit, Jets have all this extra draft capital, blah blah blah.
What did JD do? Said no thank you and continued his patient rebuild. I would much rather go that direction than dumping the mother lode for a guy who is not the final piece.
“If we offered 6 first rounders and Ainge turned it down we need to say “thanks, no thanks” and walk away. That is fucking ridiculous. It’s Donovan Mitchell, not Kevin Durant. ”
What he said.
There are three reasons: Dolan wants a star, Leon needs to deliver him one, and Ainge will walk away if we don’t give him everything he wants.
There has been zero indication that Leon’s seat is even warm at this point. He does not need to make a bad trade to save his job. I don’t believe Dolan is involved at all at this point. I don’t love many of the moves Leon has done but for the most part the one thing he has done is keep his powder dry.
Gobert was traded for 4 picks and a swap, Murray was traded for 3 picks and a swap. No other players of note went out in either trade. If we offer 4 picks and 2 swaps we beat both trades without offering IQ or Obi.
If that isn’t enough we walk away and wait. I doubt Ainge is ever able to beat our offer with anyone else. If he does, then we look good for not giving up too much.
We are a 6-10 seed right now with no trade, with Mitchell we are probably a 4-7 seed. He doesn’t move the needle that much and we should be in no rush to get him.
My final offer is Julius Randle, Cam Reddish, unprotected picks in 2023 & 2024 (we can do that if we keep the Dallas pick). A pick swap in 2025. And a top 10-protected pick in 2026.
Donnie Walsh had just delivered Amar’e Stoudemire, surrounded him the most exciting cast of young players we’ve ever seen, and Knicks fans were chanting M-V-P in December. That man was on a throne when Dolan gave him the order.
From Marc Stein’s newsletter:
“Yet one league source advised me in Las Vegas to keep an eye on the Knicks and Lakers discussing a potential Westbrook deal if — IF — Leon Rose can successfully bring Donovan Mitchell to Madison Square Garden. The source’s thinking: After adding Mitchell, New York would be expected to explore scenarios to trade away Julius Randle. And Randle, just one season removed from his breakthrough to All-Star and All-NBA status, is presumably the sort of player that the Lakers would have to consider taking on if — IF — they are unable to use Westbrook’s $47.1 million expiring contract in a trade for Kyrie Irving.”
A hopeful sign our front office realizes a Mitchell/Randle pairing is downright untenable.
From what I am reading here pretty much the entirety of Knickerblogger is 100% against this trade. I’m seeing a lot of “I’d do it for a package that Ainge would never accept in a million years” kind of posts, so I’m just going to count those as “I’m against the whole idea.”
Ainge is not trading us Donovan Mitchell for a pu pu platter. We have achieved a remarkable consensus here, something that is practically a first: I don’t think a single person here is in favor of this trade, at least not any realistic construction of the trade.
You guys are trying to be too smart about this. It’s James Dolan. You gotta follow the trail of stupid. Stephen A Smith is to Dolan what the Fox news idiots were to Trump.
it’s amazing how many people have anchored onto the Minny deal and will now accept a deal that would surpass not only the Murray deal that was JUST made this offseason… but also rival the Harden deal last year…
the bar absolutely should be the Murray deal because if it winds up being more .. then why didn’t we just trade for Murray to begin with? if there weren’t that many stars going to be available then why did he pass that one up in order to give up literally twice as much for Mitchell?
don’t fall for Ainge’s game…. if it wasn’t good before the Gobert deal.. it’s not good now….
Ainge is going to hold on to Mitchell until he gets what he wants. He’s not gonna be like “well this sucks but it’s the best offer I have right now and I’m scared to hold on to him longer.”
No one should be anchored to anything. The NBA trade market is inflationary right now. In fact, it’s in one because Danny Ainge keeps setting a new level every time he makes a trade!
You’re trying to buy gas for $4 because that’s what it used to be. Ainge is just gonna keep seeing how high he can raise the price.
@JK47 — **” We have achieved a remarkable consensus here, something that is practically a first: I don’t think a single person here is in favor of this trade, at least not any realistic construction of the trade.”**
That’s exactly why I don’t think it will happen. Rose, Aller et al must have some/all of this feeling as well.
you forget the best return out of this is dismantling the rest of the team and getting a top 5 pick… that’s arguably worth more than anything they’ll get back from the Knicks…
I also agree tho Rose isn’t exactly playing with complete security but he at least was operating this offseason with the assumption that Mitchell wasn’t really available (although Ainge was likely floating him way before Shams announced it)….
there’s no inflation! it was one deal for a completely different type of player going to a team in a completely different situation…. Minnesota wouldn’t have done that same deal for Durant which shoudl tell you how unique that deal was to them…
the deal that happened right before should be the comparison…. because why the fuck did you pass that up if you’re going to unload the truck for Mitchell? that winds up being pretty fucking stupid right?
the Gobert deal isn’t all that out of line either… it’s just right in line with the Paul George.. James Harden.. type of deals… and most people don’t think he’s in their class.. well to Minnesota who got eliminated cause of lack of rim protection… Gobert is their Harden…
Well at some point the price of gas is going to come down. If Ainge is at his gas station still trying to sell gas at $5/gallon, then he will go out of business.
Re: the Marc Stein Lakers thing — that was always where I thought extra picks might come from, although I had Westbrook going to the Jazz so Ainge could get more picks.
But this construction works at least $-wise
NYK gets Westbrook and Mitchell
Jazz get Kendrick Nunn and Derrick Rose
Lakers get Randle, Fournier, and Reddish
If you ask me, the Lakers should give up 2 picks for this – how protected they are is another story. I imagine 1 unprotected and the later one top 4 or top 8 protected or something.
Jazz can redirect Rose elsewhere to get another late pick, and Nunn expires after this year.
Knicks presumably buy out Westbrook.
We send maybe 2-3 picks to the Jazz, maybe Quickley, and the Lakers picks finish the package.
I don’t know how unrealistic that trade might be, but we would start Mitchell, Brunson, RJ, Obi, Mitch
Off bench you’d have Grimes, Deuce, Hartenstein, Sims… but then pretty bare after that. I guess Feron Hunt?
Actually we would need to get something else in that trade. We’d be sending out Rose, Randle, Fournier, reddish AND taking back Westbrook. We need more than just Mitchell especially if we’re sending out picks. I’m not totally sure how to make that equitable.
I feel like the Knicks wont want to send out both Rose and IQ considering they are our only playmaking off the bench. Brunson and Mitchell is plenty of playmaking but one of them gets hurt and we are in trouble.
Ryan McDonaugh, with Beck, on SI.com:
“I think most teams, if not almost all of them, value Donovan Mitchell very highly.
So then the question becomes, from an executive standpoint, is if we’re trading a young star in his prime, who’s under contract? And by the way, even though it’s a max contract; those numbers are gonna look pretty good as the salary cap continues to ascend. We need to get somebody who, theoretically, at least, could be as good as him someday. And so if you look at just my opinion, look at the Knicks’ roster, RJ Barrett’s that guy. The other guys are, you know, I mean, are they starters? I’m not trying to bag on the Knicks. But Immanuel Quickley, Quentin Grimes, McBride, Toppin, you can make an argument that maybe they’re low-end starters or high-end bench players; maybe they’re rotational players.”
His take from Utah’s perspective is basically no RJ, no deal.
Donnie Walsh had just delivered Amar’e Stoudemire, surrounded him the most exciting cast of young players we’ve ever seen, and Knicks fans were chanting M-V-P in December. That man was on a throne when Dolan gave him the order.
Yes, but the difference btwn then and now is A) Donnie wasn’t hired by Dolan. He was hoisted upon him by the league. Donnie did an ok job up to that point but he wasn’t Dolan’s hire. B) The organization has already experience what happens to the team when you gut the team of young players and picks for an all-star player who isn’t a top 5 player.
If we have to include RJ then we send less picks. RJ, Fournier and 3 picks it’s OK for me. Ainge has his next star (RJ) to sell to the owners/fanbase, and maybe RJ has a breakout year making him look like a genius. We get a proven star, and we don’t have to worry about RJ’s money holding us from doing the next moves.
Here is where the Leon Rose Mystery Box thing works both ways. We all know that he is here to deliver a star to the Knicks. But because the guy almost never freaking talks, has he ever actually said this? Or is this just everyone reading between the lines of his background, his actions so far, and his much vaguer statements about wanting to remain flexible so you can jump on opportunities?
I don’t think he is publicly pot-committed to bringing in a star, and in theory could walk away if Ainge continues to be ridiculous. But is this the promise he has made to Guitar Jimmy? And, if so, what kind of timeline does he have to deliver on said promise? Who the hell knows?
I’m not sure I’d trade RJ for Mitchell straight-up. RJ and three ones, absolutely no way.
The next move for this team should be clearing out Randle. Attach one of the shitty protected ones if you have to, just get him out of here. No Mitchell move should be made without a simultaneous clearing out of Randle. Getting the Lakers involved makes a ton of sense.
@Alan — exactly. I think Leon Rose’s mandate/goal is not to “get a star” but to erase the franchise’s reputation as “same old stupid Knicks.” This goal actually biases him *against* making a bad deal for Donovan Mitchell, especially also because of the Melo trade legacy. Even the implosion of the crosstown Nets re-affirms we shouldn’t simply chase shiny objects.
More to the point: I suspect Leon actually likes his moves thus far, which (after all) include acquiring IQ, Obi, Grimes, Cam, his assembled picks, and so on. Therefore, I think he definitely values his own assets more than Ainge does. The lingering riddle is whether Leon (not us) values Randle higher or Obi longterm. I think that decision will keep until the all star break, so (if we’re lucky) Obi might stay on til then.
I’d say that in the wildest 99th percentile projection of RJ Barrett, he would be as valuable as the current version of Donovan Mitchell. I’m trying to see how RJ makes it to a 4.3 BPM and I’m drawing a blank. He’d either have to develop into an elite sniper (kinda unlikely given his sub-70% free throw percentage) or figure out how to finish at the rim at an elite level (kinda unlikely given his relative lack of athleticism).
RJ seems like a fool’s gold prospect, who at his peak might resemble something like this year’s version of Andrew Wiggins. If I was running this team, the first thing I’d look to be doing is to flip RJ for something good, because he’s the one guy whose perceived value seems much greater than his actual value.
I would definitely trade RJ for Mitchell and not think twice.
As Swift mentioned Dolan would think more highly of Leon so wouldnt step on his toes regarding this trade. Last time Dolan intervened in a trade was ??? 10 years ago?
People on this blog call others Polyanna but some on here go in the extreme opposite direction which I think is just as silly.
PS — RJ is not one of “Leon’s guys” so for reasons noted above by @JK47 plus the impending difficult contract decision, I think Leon would be happy trading RJ for Donovan Mitchell, and he could justify it to the fanbase. That’s why Barrett’s name was floated in the early offers (IMO).
PPS (EDIT) — I know Begley said otherwise, but I suspect it’s a deal Leon would make if it excluded most of the other filler stuff.
Re: Ryan McDonough – he is not a GM anymore for a reason. This is absolutely not what Ainge is thinking. The new way of doing things, exemplified by Ainge’s trade with Minnesota and Houston’s Harden->BKN trade — they don’t want the players, they want the picks. They want to tank, get their own star under the full rookie contract length, then use the picks to get other players whether by lucking into a high pick or trading them for the next star. The last thing they want is someone like RJ who is about to get expensive a few years ahead of time and whose pedigree is probably greater than his actual production/potential.
Hahaha. Leon is probably the only executive in the NBA that can say with 100% confidence “I never said that!”.
Not too “contemporary” but I’m reading Gore Vidal’s “Julian” and as an atheist history buff I’m enjoying it.
Next up I’ll give a try to William T. Vollmann’s “Europe Central”…
Donovan Mitchell has a 15% trade kicker, so if Ainge wants to send him to a place he doesn’t want to go, i’d imagine he won’t waive it.
Use RJ to get Mitchell for fewer picks. Trade Randle to LA for Westbrook and recoup a future 1st. Giddyup.
@DRed — “Use RJ to get Mitchell for fewer picks. Trade Randle to LA for Westbrook and recoup a future 1st. Giddyup.” Honestly, that’s the smartest play (even though I’d rather keep RJ b/c he’s homegrown).
@Raven — books? The board was celebrating classics like Disgraced, Moby Dick, and Don Quixote (!). Not knowing your taste, I can recommend current(ish) fiction titles Trust by Diaz, Luster by Leilani, The Arrest by Lethem, Afternoon of a Faun by Lasdun, Cool for America (stories) by Martin. As a wild card, I just finished The Whole Five Feet by Christopher Beha (editor of the Atlantic) a slim memoir during which he reads “all” the classic Great Books in a year of personal tumult. Kind of fun in the context of our last go round about literature.
I hope the board keeps book recs coming. I need want more good ones.
Speaking of RJ, Keldon Johnson just got a 4-year, 80 mil extension. Looking at his stats, there’s no way RJ deserves more than that. Hopefully RJ agrees.
[narrator: RJ did not agree]
Oh, if Ainge shifts and wants RJ, the deal should be no more than RJ, Fournier, and two #1 picks (one in 2023, and one other one of their choice).
I don’t really want to do that, though, b/c it might make trading Randle less likely.
Any chance the Knicks are quietly bidding for Durant?
The Westbrook deal confuses me because let’s say that the Knicks choose not to extend RJ once having traded Randle. With RJ’s cap hold after next season being $32 million, would the Knicks even gain any real cap room to sign somebody by dumping Randle and Rose? I don’t believe so. So what would the idea be? What good does clearing Randle’s salary do if you’re going to be capped out either way? Wouldn’t it make more sense to trade Randle for players who could help, and not for a guy whose salary you’d just be clearing off the decks?
***We all know that he is here to deliver a star to the Knicks.***
I think Rose is here only because Bob Myers is the GM of the Warriors and Dolan’s creativity ends at “if it worked for them, it will work for us”.
***Last time Dolan intervened in a trade was ??? 10 years ago?***
The Lowry trade was nixed 8 1/2 years ago, but who knows what Dolan has said and done behind the scenes since then.
To add on that Donnie wasnt the reason he nixed the trade because he didnt want to trade a first after seeing what happened in the Melo trade. Correct me if I’m wrong.
So if thats true then to some extent he would understand not wanting to give up too many assets for Mitchell.
***he nixed the trade because he didnt want to trade a first after seeing what happened in the Melo trade. Correct me if I’m wrong.***
It was after seeing what happened in the Bargnani trade, and the fact that the same dude was making a living out of collecting the Knicks 1st round picks. But, yes, he didn’t want to get punked again. How that theoretically effects his decision making now is impossible to know, but that trade he nixed actually would have been a franchise changing move and his cold-feet effectively screwed the team for, well, 8 1/2 years and counting…
It’s going to depend a lot on the specifics of the trade and how we choose to fill out the roster, but I believe we can. It won’t be by much. Assuming we waive DRose if he’s still here, we’ve traded all our 2023 picks, and Fournier, Randle, IQ, Obi & Cam are gone.
Roster:
1. Donovan Mitchell
2. Jalen Brunson
3. Quentin Grimes
4. RJ Barrett w/ $32M cap hold (less if he signs for less)
5. Mitch
6. Deuce
7. Hartenstein
8. Sims
4 incomplete roster charges ~$1M each, if we don’t sign anyone & don’t draft anyone
Assuming ~$10M cap increase, gets us about ~$8M below the cap.
We’d have ~$22M in 2024 before picks if Hartenstein walks. More if RJ gets below $32M that year, which I expect him to get less than.
Then in 2025 the new TV deal kicks in and there’s a number of the above players who become FAs, making an already guess-y, guess-work problem complete speculation.
Also, the move for Westbrook could keep us below the luxury tax. It may be a cheap move, but it’d also give us the standard MLE rather than the Lux Tax MLE.
Miles McBride is right next to Chet Holmgren in one summer league ranking.
https://mobile.twitter.com/kpelton/status/1548891026818863104?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1548891026818863104%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.espn.com%2Fnba%2Finsider%2Finsider%2Fstory%2F_%2Fid%2F34259754%2F2022-nba-summer-league-superlatives-mvp-best-rookie-others-stood-las-vegas
Any credible source is saying that Joe Tsai would rather sell the team than trade Durant to the Knicks.
After all the hoopla about him and Kyrie choosing them over us it would be a devastating blow, marketing and image wise, for the Nets.
But some people believe we can win a trade with Danny Ainge* (come on Danny, asking too much is wrong, let us teach you the rules for a fair trade), so we can dream everything…
* When someone ask for six 1st rounders in a trade, you must send an ambulance to get him and put his phone number in the blocked list… even if he’s joking!
Damn you, Morgan Freeman! 😀
Maybe the Randle for Westbrook is counting on RJ going to Utah. I think that’d make more sense.
Cosign RJ for Mitchell.
The fact it isn’t going down like that is truly strange. Says a lot about RJ/s true value imo
Hey, watch out Max! I might take the next low cost to Milano and settle this up in person! LOL
You can ask Danny to pay for the expenses LOL
Cyber, I was doing Ron Howard in Arrested Development.
If we do move RJ, we can get a max contract slot or within shouting distance of a max contract slot. Depends on who else stays and if you’re talking 6 or less yrs, 7-9yrs, or 10+.
By trading Mitch we could get a 10+ for LBJ. Clearing space for LBJ has never backfired before.
Yes, but I don’t think anyone wants to trade for Randle, and he’s probably not rebuilding value on a team with two relatively . high usage guards. Randle is obviously overpaid but I also think he’s just a bad fit on the team. He’s blocking Obi, who is probably better than he is and Randle wants the ball all the time and we would have two guys who are much better with the ball than he is.
I’d love to John Malkovich into Pat Beverly’s body, go on ESPN, and give it to the Windhorst, Bontemps, of the world about this “pressure” that the Knicks are facing to get Mitchell. They would pissed their pants on live TV.
The shock that would reverberate throughout the media if the Knicks somehow walked away from this deal or waited till the trade deadline. Talking Heads: LOLKnicks. Knickerblogger: rejoice
via Mark Stein on some podcast according to some guy on twitter:
“If the Knicks and Jazz don’t come to a deal, the Jazz will take him into the season, even tho they prefer to move into a full rebuild.”
“It’s gonna take no less than 4 picks, most likely 5 picks to get done.”
Hodl
That’s very cool too. I love the way that he “got” the job. 😉
Yeah I’d try to move away from acquiring Mitchell, and focus on moving Randle to another team.
Thanks, guys. I was mostly just wanting to read anything other than more Mitchell trade options (and pining for the previous good book discussions by comparison), but these ideas are great. Keep em coming…
Desus and Mero split up. I wonder if one of them was wildly pro-Spida and the other wanted to keep the kids at all costs.
That’s the only thing that I could think of, yes.
I have a friend who was a producer on season one of their show who blames their manager.
The big issue with saving cap for next season is that the free agents class for 2023 is downright depressing. There’s like Kyrie Irving and LeBron which are obviously never happening and then straight up garbage like D’Angelo Russell, Westbrook, Vucevic, Harrison Barnes, Porzingis if he opts out, Wiggins if anyone is still hyped enough about his play to think he’s worthy of another max, Jerami Grant… it’s just awful.
I’m not against the idea of generating cap space instead of being capped out with Randle and RJ, but if we do make a move for Mitchell, this cap space is unlikely to bring anything meaningful in free agency (and with our assets depleted from the Mitchell trade, we won’t be able to absorb a star into it because we won’t have assets to make the move anyway).
It’s gonna be a loooooooong 3 months.
For me, its not so much about how much cap space you have…it’s more about who you are using your cap space on. We are probably not getting a star in free agency so if you want to get a star via a trade, and all you need (fundamentally speaking) are matching salaries to do that. As such, you want guys who other teams kinda want at their salary. That ain’t Julius right now.
But that isn’t Westbrook, either, right?
The following 3-way trade works in the trade machine:
Knicks get: Donovan and Russ
Lakers get: Randle and either Rose or Fournier
Jazz get: Reddish, one of Grimes or IQ, McBride and either Rose or Fournier
Then the Jazz would get 2 unprotected Knicks picks, Lakers 2027 unprotected pick, and two additional protected picks from the Knicks
That would give Utah their 5 picks plus Grimes, the Lakers would get either shooting or playmaking and whatever Randle would be with LeBron and AD, and the Knicks would get Mitchell and Russ, who might just be a useful player in a scheme with Thibs…at least more useful than Randle. Or we could substitute IQ for Reddish and it still works.
Not ideal by any means but at least interesting.
“But that isn’t Westbrook, either, right?”
He’s a massive expiring contract, so it’s a 1-year hit that has no relevance this year since we’re over the cap anyway.
This era has become the age of superstars simply demanding trades, which has dropped the market value of expiring contracts massively. There’s too many incentives for stars to simply re-sign at every opportunity they have with their current teams and then just force a trade, instead of running down their contracts like they used to.
I’d still love to dump Randle, don’t get me wrong, but I see very little value in simply getting cap space in return. I’d rather get his contract broken down in smaller parts because then at least you can use those players in future trades, like the Mavs did with Porzingis (even though thr execution of it wasn’t that great as Bertans is also not a valuable asset by any means). Simply getting Westbrook and then waiving him would create cap space for next season, which I like in principle for rebuilding teams because then you can absorb bad contracts and expirings onto it for assets, but it doesn’t fit our timeline if Mitchell comes and we go full on competitive mode.
So I don’t know, I don’t see much value in helping the Lakers here, unless we can maybe dump both Randle AND Fournier, which I like a lot more, but that would cost even more probably.
Z-man, it seems like the same overpay for Mitchell as others have proposed plus trading Randle for Westbrook. I would never trade Randle straight up for Westbrook, so its not a benefit of having a more complicated trade.
I’m listening to the Dunc’d Ons podcast of today. He has nice things to say about Knicks management (good at talent identification and building up resources). He also said that the Knicks could maybe trade Obi or Quickley but not Grimes in a deal for Mitchell. He said if we could move Toppin and save future draft equity in a deal the Knicks should do it. He said Quickley was tradeable in a Mitchell deal because they only need so many small guards. Grimes we should definitely keep because he can shoot and he fits better next to Brunson or Mitchell. He also said that he expects the Jazz to get less for Mitchell than Gobert and that the Knicks will still have a lot of work to do even if they end up trading for Mitchell.
Bruno, I agree but after the trade you are going to have roster holes to fill which you can’t fill if you don’t have cap flexibility. The league is saturated with rotation players right now and good value players are going to shake loose at any time until there is some sort of expansion. If you are capped out you have to fill those voids with vet’s minimum guys or buyouts. Last year’s Lakers are a prime example of a team with no cap flexibility.
KFNINJ, yes, it would be the same overpay in theory. But the extra #1 pick from the Lakers changes the calculus a bit in that it leaves us with an extra #1 for future deals. It also adds cap flexibility and gets rid of two guys that create fit issues in 2023-24. This makes it easier to make a trade for the next disgruntled star, or to facilitate 3-way trades.
I would strongly prefer to stand pat, but if we do go for Mitchell, I’d be interested in the Westbrook maneuver as a possible way to keep the Mitchell trade from being a dead end.
I also think it’s possible that Ainge realizes that the Lakers unprotected 2027 pick is far more valuable than any of our own picks. His asking price might go down to 4 picks if one of them is the LAL pick, e.g. our 2023 and 2025 unprotected, the Lakers 2027 unprotected and one of our protected picks. Then we’d still have, say, Dallas 2023, our own 2024, 2026 and beyond, and two other protected picks left for the next deal(s). Plus the cap space generated by Westbrook’s expiring. At least two of Obi, IQ, Grimes and Cam would still be on the roster and freed up for playing time.
But are you keeping RJ or not? If yes, it’ll be hard to open cap space. The max for RJ will start at 34M if the cap rises like expected. Let’s say he gives the team a discount and signs for 28M, to add to Mitchell (32.6M), Brunson (26.3M), Mitch (15.7M), Obi (6.8M), Hartenstein (8.2M), Deuce (1.8M) and Sims (1.9M), that’s 121.3M for 8 players. You’d open around 15M in cap space, and then you’d have the room MLE (around 5M).
It’d be better to try to use Randle and DRose to get useful pieces and stay above the cap than do this. Above the cap, and below the luxury tax, you have the full MLE (around 10M). It isn’t worth the trouble to try to get below the cap, because then you’ll need players to fill even more open spots and little money to do it.