NY Post: Knicks signing GM Scott Perry to multi-year contract extension

Glad to see Perry extended. I didn’t think he’d outlast Mills at all.

I like Giddey and would trade up for him. I don’t particularly like Bouknight or Moody but if mgmt likes them, I’ll reserve judgement. I’d also be okay with trading up for Mitchell if it doesn’t cost too much.

If we stay put, so far I’m good with Mann, Duarte, Cooper, Murphy and Butler.

Stable and competent management. Who would have thought it

If you want someone else’s profile let me know and I’ll post it. Note that I’m getting on a plane in a few minutes, so it may take a bit for me to reply

***there’s no shame in being massively unknowledgeable about the history of the NBA and its all-time greatest players.***

True, there is certainly no shame in it. But that, too, is moot to this argument. I am not disagreeing that Wilt dominated the sport 60 years ago, and I’m not disagreeing with the notion that he could have dominated it if he was playing in today’s era. But it’s not “proved” by the 2021 nba finals results, as you stated on Tuesday night. I personally believe that athletes are better today, and the game is more sophisticated than it was 60-70 years ago. But I acknowledge that there is much to the debate, and that no proof exists one way or the other. And it’s certainly not going to be found in one 4 game sample of a bizarre season.

(con’d) But there are measurables and plenty of film of Wilt at all stages in his career, including against Bill Russell, Wilt’s main nemesis who was 100X the athlete, defensive player, that Ayton is. There is also the testimony of guys like Russell and Jerry West, who is a NBA lifer and not known as an exaggerator. No doubt that some of the Paul Bunyan-esque tales of Wilt from other guys is ridiculous, but there’s enough film to verify nearly all of the basketball stuff. This is probably the best compilation.

Can I prove my claim to you to your satisfaction? That probably depends on your standard for evidence. Obviously no one could ever prove it beyond any doubt, but if the standard is beyond a “reasonable” doubt, I think the proof is there. Purely objectively, Wilt clearly was bigger, longer, stronger, faster, and more vertically athletic than Giannis. That can be verified with film study (sprint speed) and via actual measurements. As to skill level, you’d have to be quite cynical to believe that if he played today, he wouldn’t have mastered things like the Eurostep and the face-the-basket game, in addition to all the things he needed to do to average 50.4 points. On the other hand, there is plenty of evidence to suggest that Giannis hasn’t mastered the Dirk/Duncan Fadeaway (there is ample evidence that Wilt was very good at it) or the back to the basket game anywhere near to the level that Wilt did. And Wilt was a great passer when he wanted to be, leading the league in total assists one year. So if Giannis could win multiple MVPs in today’s game, and run up 50 points against DeAndre Ayton and Frank Kaminsky, well…

Perry is Dolan’s and Mills’s plant; there’s no other explanation for him still being there. While he has a more senior title, it doesn’t sound like he’s even de facto more senior on the org chart than Aller or Perrin. That’s what happens when you have to hire/retain the boss’s buddy or nephew or somesuch. He’s the “GM” the way Mills was the “GM” when Phil was here and Mills was obviously a plant.

Bad sign.

Donnie Walsh:
Rogers and Hammerstein dominated broadway in the 50s. Nobody questions their greatness. A nostalgic audience may even claim their body of work is the best ever. But could Rogers and Hammerstein write blockbuster musicals today? Could their King And I/Sound Of Music template carry them among the diverse voices writing today? Perhaps they could, or perhaps they were a product of their time. We’ll really never know.

This analogy is flawed because of the nature of what Wilt does. R&H’s talents are more in the creative realm, not in the performance realm. A better analogy would be something like: would Jimi Hendrix be as successful today as he was in his day? Or Charlie Parker? Or Maria Callas? Or Beethoven? Of course they would.

I think it’s totally fair to say the Wilt probably would probably not have had the opportunity to average 50 points and 27 rebounds today, or 48.5 minutes a game. Those kinds of records were more a product of the times. But the physical and technical attributes that he had are timeless, just like Jimi Hendrix’s skill with the guitar trancends time and the limitations of his era.

Some all-time greats from the past certainly wouldn’t translate to the same level of greatness today. Bob Cousy, George Mikan, and others certainly beneffited from the limitations of the times they played in, including the systemic racism of their times. Guys like Russell, Baylor, West, Barry, Thurmond, Robertson, they would figure it out. Wilt is in a whole different stratosphere than those guys. His measurables are not in question in any way. He would still be the strongest, fastest and most agile big man in the game today, at Rudy Gobert’s size. Plus he’d be able to rear back on dunks, take eurosteps, pass to shooters for corner 3’s, etc.

Here’s a very detailed article about the definition of “athleticism” and how Springer and Mann, while not gifted athletes in the traditional sense, make the most out of their athletic package:

https://www.thestepien.com/2021/05/12/compensation-kings-redefining-athleticism-with-mann-and-springer/

By extension, it explains why Obi, even with his verticality, is not really as “athletic” as his measurables would suggest.

BTW sign me up for Springer or Mann.

I’m not a draft expert but I’m against picking a C in the first round while I’m all in for Queta with the 32nd, reports describe him as a good rim protector, an improved passer with decent offense, plus he’d make Cyber happy.

In the first round I’d rather go, depending on who’s available, with a PG/SG to nurture next to a veteran plus a shooting wing, a Bullock replacement that can be used from the bench as he grew up if Bully’s re-sign.

I’m not sold on Sharife Cooper because as a Knicks fan I’ve had enough of non-shooting PG and I’m skeptical about small guards if not otherwordly offensively.

But on names I gladly defer to Dj and other draftnicks.

TNFH you are posting on the previous thread, might want to repost here…

Appreciate it!

1. Jalen Suggs
2. Jalen Green
3. Cade Cunningham
4. Evan Mobley
5. Scottie Barnes
6. Josh Giddey
7. Jalen Johnson
8. Alperen Sengun
9. Franz Wagner
10. James Bouknight
11. Moses Moody
12. Jaden Springer
13. Jared Butler
14. Jonathan Kuminga
15. Sharife Cooper
16. Keon Johnson
17. Josh Christopher
18. Ayo Dosunmu
19. Chris Duarte
20. Cam Thomas
21. Miles McBride
22. Nah’Shon Hyland
23. Tre Mann
24. Usman Garuba
25. Davion Mitchell
26. Charles Bassey
27. Neemias Queta
28. Jason Preston
29. Isaiah Jackson
30. Trey Murphy III
31. Mckinley Wright
32. Justin Champagnie
33. Corey Kispert
34. Joel Ayayi
35. JT Thor
36. Aaron Henry
37. Day’ron Sharpe
38. Isaiah Todd
39. DJ Steward
40. David Johnson
41. Matthew Hurt
42. Kai Jones
43. Kessler Edwards
44. Jose Alvarado
45. Daishen Nix
46. Greg Brown
47. Ziaire Williams
48. Scottie Lewis
49. Joe Wieskamp
50. Jay Huff
51. Isaiah Livers
52. Santi Aldama
53. Juhann Begarin
54. Luka Garza
55. Trendon Watford
56. Joshua Primo
57. Gabriele Procida
58. Quentin Grimes
59. DJ Carton
60. BJ Boston

I’m not as high on Suggs as some others here. Still a top half of the lottery pick but I’d probably have him at #4-6 behind Cade, Green, and Mobley for sure, and maybe others.

I really hope we stay put and take two swipes at it, or at worst, we package #19 and #32 to move up a couple of spots. There’s just so much parity and no one really jumps out as a trade-up target unless you get all the way to the top, which isn’t happening,.

As to Cooper, I like Mann better but would be fine with either one.

-His finishing rate at the rim was an unsightly 49.5%…but this was with a cartoonishly low 8.7% of his shots there assisted.

This has been my criticism of Cooper… he lacks a bit of self awareness and he thinks he’s a few inches taller than he actually is…. he goes in challenging against length and far too often he gets stuck with no where to go…. short pg’s makes these micro assessments all the time…. do you go for it? do you go for the floater? a pass? dribble through? step back midrange?

the lack of assisted fg’s come with how much he dominates the ball…. and so if he’s not dominating the rock… how much can he contribute? how much are you willing to tolerate him forcing his way to the rim? that’s a big risk imo…. and to me he’s a bit lacking on the decisionmaking front coupled with his lack of ability to finish..

that in itself isn’t the end of the world… there have been short pgs who have had mediocre freshman years…. and haven’t been perfect either…. but there aren’t many that have these foundational questions about his game so there’s some higher than normal bust potential here…. if he does figure it out in some fashion there’s enough there to make out a decent career although i’m a bit muted on high the upside goes… i kind of think he’s more trey burke than trae young….

I’m totally against trading up. Non-lottery picks are dart throws, and I’ll take 2 darts over 1 any day of the week.

Duarte working out for us today. Again, I know nothing but what I read in all these scouting reports, but he definitely sounds like the safest pick we could make in either spot, unless his success was entirely about being a man among boys in college.

I don’t think Perry is all that valuable but the idea that he’s a Dolan/Mills (?!?!?!) plant is laughable. The guy has been in the NBA for over twenty years for multiple teams. This is not Steve Mills, who wouldn’t qualify to be an intern for 29 NBA teams yet was given the reigns of the New York Knicks.

I understand everyone is content starved but re-signing him is a nothingburger.

Perry’s calling card when we hired him was supposedly agent relations so I guess thats something

thenoblefacehumper: Appreciate it!
1. Jalen Suggs
2. Jalen Green
3. Cade Cunningham
4. Evan Mobley
5. Scottie Barnes
(…)

Man, your commitment is outstanding, thanks. I couldn’t make a Top60 list, that’s for sure, maybe separate some players in tiers, but the ones i know better are the ones that’ll be available for our picks, the rest i tend to ignore. 😛
I agree with most of your list, but i have some questions for you about the position of 3 or 4 players:
1. You really like Jalen Johnson a lot, but he might be available if we trade up some spots (he’s mocked in the teens more often than not, i think). If we do it, and you have Johnson and Bouknight available, you’d take Johnson?
2. You’re really down on Kuminga? Why? He’s only 18, so i think the potential is there, although he didn’t show it in the best way to get drafted higher, i think going 5th is the most probable outcome.
3. I also have mixed feelings about Kispert, but 2nd round? If you can tell what red flags are you seeing in him, i’d like to know.
4. And last, some players at the tail end of the draft, i’m also high on Ayayi and in some mocks he’s there for our pick #58*, if he is i hope we take him and have him in place of Harper. Another tail end guy, i have Robinson-Earl as a good target for pick #58* and you don’t have him at all. You don’t think he’s Top60 or did he flew under your radar?
* – when i say pick #58, it can be #48 or something, if we can package #58 and money to go up some spots.

Max:
I’m trying to convince mysef that I can be happy with a Duarte/Dosunmu/Queta trio,

Duarte/Dosunmu/Queta sounds like an incantation to raise spirits from the dead

d-mar: Duarte/Dosunmu/Queta sounds like an incantation to raise spirits from the dead

LOL so is there a chance for Kevin Knox?

thanks for that list Alan… it’s worth mentioning also that some folks will work out and not publicize.. a lot of times beat writers or others will reach out to prospects or teams to verify a workout took place… some prospects and teams are forthcoming and some aren’t… so that list is probably only what’s verified through beat writers.. social media or direct contact with the player or team…

for instance it was confirmed with the Vrenz workout that Jaden Springer was also in the gym but he’s not listed… I think a similar thing happened to Cam Thomas also… sometimes workouts will be conducted in secret also although i think those days are gone….

so that’s not an exhaustive list just what’s confirmed so far…

I’ve only listened to a bit of his appearance on Macri’s pod so far, but Wasserman frames it as a thing he has heard from another team: the Knicks have started placing calls, including to this team.

thanks for that… wasserman never struck me as an insider with actual sources so i guess that’s a surprise then…

They don’t list Grimes who definitely worked out for the Knicks.

I’d probably prefer Grimes to Duarte. I really don’t trust his advantages from being 24 to translate to the NBA.

Thanks for the link, Alan. And yeah, probably the Cavs won’t select Kuminga 3rd overall and he’s the only high profile prospect that had a work out there.

E, your conspiracy theories are ridiculous. Scott Perry has worked for various front offices around the league for two decades. So when Dolan fired Mills finally, did he have a meeting with Perry and ask him to stay but he had to be the new spy for him? Like just because Perry worked with/under Mills means that Mills infected him with his machavelian schemes to secretly destroy the Knicks? Give me a break.

He’s good at contract negotiations, has had some success with trades, etc. He has his flaws but if he’s one of several voices, its great he’s staying on. He’s done some good stuff for us.

He’s no Phil Jackson, but then again, who is?

**I know the track record of older lottery picks isn’t great (which is another reason to worry about Obi’s future, I guess), but how about older 22 and 23-year-olds who are taken in the late teens or 20s?**

Idk, his game has to undergo fewer changes than Obi. But even as an older player in year 1 Duarte didn’t dominate inside the arc like he did this year. I just don’t buy that anyone is a sure thing to translate.

Buying a low-ceiling player even if he only struggles in year 1 just doesn’t make sense to me.

I truly wonder whether Obi would have put up impressive numbers if he were drafted by a team that put him in the lineup for big minutes and didn’t care about wins and losses. I hope we get one more year to find out. He’s probably working on his defensive game as we speak and If Nerlens leaves, maybe he gets more minutes with Julius on the floor. Maybe he can evolve into a John Collins-level player.

Wasserman, re: Duarte’s workout with us:

@NBADraftWass
Duarte’s stock is hot. Interest has snowballed/spread, he’s become a trade-up target for teams. Unlikely here’s available at 19.

Wilt would have been a star on the hardwood and in bed with the ladies in any era
Drop mic

#Duarte/Dosunmu/Queta sounds like an incantation to raise spirits from the dead#

That’s some Classic Funny Shit!
Thank You d-mar!

I thought i was the wackiest in here but seems like I’ve become too mainstream and banal nowadays while ZMan and Donnie Walsh have taken it to another Level!
Beethoven and Wilt struggling to make a living!! sports vs art!!! And Beatles fighting Justin Bieber for the heart of sweet Hailey!

Keep it going knicksbrothers!
The Heat is on here in Athens and your fantasy gives good chilling!
;-p

Just gonna put this out there. The Lincoln Center in the last 5 years or so did revivals of both The King and I and South Pacific. They tweaked a few scenes and some of the language here and there to make them less problematic and more with the modern times. They were both wildly successful productions that toured around the country and won a ton of awards. I saw the production of The King and I, which I had never seen before, and I really liked it. I think Rodgers and Hammerstein absolutely would have dominated Broadway if they came out today. A show like Thoroughly Modern Millie, which was a new show that was a throwback to that style, did really well and won a ton of Tony awards in the early 2000’s.

Recent revivials of Hello, Dolly and Porgy and Bess were also super popular. Those same stories and songs updated a bit would be huge broadway hits.

3. I am generally wary of prospects who absolutely need to be able to shoot the lights out at the next level in order to stick. Their outcomes tend to be all over the place because shooting is a rather volatile skill when it comes to translation (the NBA 3PT line is longer, the NCAA sample sizes are necessarily on the smaller side even after 4 seasons, etc.). Kispert could be Joe Harris, but he could also be Malik Monk, and his upside isn’t such that I’m willing to risk that immense downside (at least not with a decent pick).

4. Definitely weird to me that Ayayi is getting no attention whatsoever. Realistically you could swap out some of the guys I have at the very end for Robinson-Earl and I wouldn’t feel terribly strongly about it, but I don’t know what people see in him. Seems like a tweener in the worst way and didn’t have any standout skills in college.

The Honorable Cock Jowles:
I’d give up both picks if it got us Sengun. He needs an outside shot, like every other NBA player for the rest of time, but the passing looks awesome and he’s obviously a beast in the paint.

I just worry that Sengun could be Enes Kanter just as easily as he could be a Nurkich or Vucevich, let alone a Gasol or Jokic. (To name only white Euros.) And the fit with Randle doesn’t seem ideal. He seems likely to be a good NBA player, but maybe not here?

Donnie, I was talking about this the other day. There is the outliers book by gladwell that talks about that too. Like Bill Gates was lucky enough to go to a high school that had a computer lab in the late 70’s/early 80’s. One of the only ones at a school in the northwest at that time. If he was literally 2 years older, he would not have had access to that computer lab when in high school and it probably would have been a few years later before he discovered his love of computers of he would have focused his attention on something else instead. And if he was 3 or 4 years younger, there very easily could have been someone else who did what he did before him.

Beatles were the same way. They got a big break being able to play at that bar in Germany every night for a year in the early 60’s. They played 2 sets a night for a year, doing blues and early rock and roll covers and that was how they honed their skills as musicians. Lots and lots of low pressure practice. And then they just so happened to hit it big when rock and roll was still pretty young but the Elvis/Chuck Berry/Little Richard era of the late 50’s was over. People were saying rock and roll was done right before The Beatles burst onto the scene.

Outliers are outliers because they have prodigious amounts of talent, and they combine that talent with an incredible work ethic. Talent + work ethic is a combination that works in any era.

Are we putting 1962 Wilt in a time machine, and having him walk right into an NBA game in his Chuck Taylors, or does Wilt get to be born in like 1996 and enjoy the benefits of modern training and equipment?

“And it’s also possible that if Durant, or Curry, or Harden, or Kobe, or McGrady, or Iverson, or any of the other scoring savants of the 21st century played in the 1960s, Wilt may not have many records to his name.”

If those guys played in the 60s, they wouldn’t have had ANY of the advantages in training, nutrition, and exercise they’ve all enjoyed. And that’s not even mentioning the greater level of physical contact and outright fighting that was acceptable back then. I don’t think Harden could have made it through one game in the 60s with his garbage head-jerking and intentionally seeking contact without someone at least leveling him with a hard screen.

Mike

JK47:
Are we putting 1962 Wilt in a time machine, and having him walk right into an NBA game in his Chuck Taylors, or does Wilt get to be born in like 1996 and enjoy the benefits of modern training and equipment?

One HUGE benefit players have today is growing up playing on courts with 3-pt lines. This didn’t happen until the 80’s, which explains why there weren’t too many bigs (and even guards a d forwards) who were comfortable shooting 3’s until much later. In my school, every little kid is shooting 3’s no matter how big or small they are.

Z-man: I welcome anyone to pore over the film and point out flaws in Wilt’s game that suggest that it wouldn’t easily translate to being the most dominant big in the game today.

(meaning, more dominant than Giannis, who currently holds that title in my opinion)

Perry is Dolan’s and Mills’s plant; there’s no other explanation for him still being there.

Queta’s numbers are way above average. I hope that we take him at 32.

Davion Mitchell does seem like a Thibs guy, attacks the basket and plays defense.

His shooting is very worrisome. We could be looking at Elfrid Payton 2.0, but maybe he can actually play defense this time.

geo:
Perry is Dolan’s and Mills’s plant; there’s no other explanation for him still being there.

LOL… so Dolan is an alien? That would explain a lot, as he seems like super odd for a human being. 😀

people have a real tough time explaining the logic behind rating davion mitchell over butler… if they even bother at all…. it’s not quite knox over sga but it’s in the neighborhood…

Yeah I don’t want any part of Mitchell either, he doesn’t seem like he has much upside and his floor doesn’t seem very high. Just take Grimes if you want an older guard who plays defense.

In a draft like this, anything can happen. Finding the gem of a player at any spot is tough.
Cade #1 seems obvious but he’s not LeBron or Zion.
Mobley, Green, Suggs, Barnes & Kuminga #2-6 in some order. Potentially these are impact players.
Everyone else in a mosh pit after.

I’m not a professional scout but, from what I see, even they will have trouble with that next tier of players. Rose can go a number of ways depending on how things shake out. I’m thinking that the lack of free agent talent and the general youth of this team might lead to just loading up on rookies and look to be active in the mid-season trade market. Being able to put together a young, cheap, controllable bench before adding big-ticket 2022 free agents is a good way to build a winner. But I wouldn’t be surprise if Leon goes the exact opposite way and trades everything for max players to win now.

It’s nice to know that we have resources and options that we’ve not had in what seems like decades.

I don’t think there’s an obvious #1 in this draft, and I think it’s likely one or more of Mobley, Suggs or Green is better than Cunningham. Cade has a bit of Wiggins to him in the way he’s been #1 pretty much because he was #1 before the season started. (I think he’s a better prospect than Wiggins tho)

I know the track record of older lottery picks isn’t great (which is another reason to worry about Obi’s future, I guess), but how about older 22 and 23-year-olds who are taken in the late teens or 20s?

I guess the obvious comparison is Malcolm Brogdon, who went in the 2nd round. Both were older players in the draft (Brogdon was 23,5 years old in the draft), with good size (6-5 for Brogdon, 6-6 for Duarte) and good shooting numbers (50-39-90 for Brogdon, 63-42-81 for Duarte). I guess both have some sort of defensive reputation in college, being all-denfense in their conferences, although Brogdon was DPOY of his conference.

I know very little about NCAA and draft, and I don’t know if there is a difference in level of competition between PAC-12 and ACC. Also, I have no idea about the style of play of their respective teams and their role in their team. I worry a little that Brogdon have a significantly larger wingspan (6-10 vs 6-7) and that a higher FT% might be more indicative of shooting translating to the NBA.

Definitely, I would not trade up for him… but I guess it is fine if we draft him at one of our 1st round picks.

Interesting bit about Kawhi – but crazy as it is to say, i can’t say I’m too hot on signing him if he wants to come here. Already 30, probably will miss much of the year with the ACL…

Knicks doing a good job disguising their intentions – they’ve now been tied to like 20 players. They’re trading up, they’re working out guys in the late 20s (are we trading down?), etc.

My guess is they are trying to get ahead of the Warriors to get someone like Duarte or Kispert. I don’t imagine they are trading up to get a small guard like Mitchell.

Agree with above that I think I’d rather stick at 19 and 21 and draft someone like Grimes or Murphy. Possible that Duarte and Kispert have higher floors but I imagine the chances of one of the combo of Grimes OR Murphy succeeding are greater than the chances of just one of Duarte or Kispert.

That said – Duarte and Kispert’s numbers are pretty nuts. Duarte – 63% 2P%, 43% from 3. Kispert similar

Comparing players from different eras ain’t provable and numbers don’t do much justice also since there are many different factors so my opinion on these kinds of comparisons is that the most important thing is The Will to Prevail.

For example a barefoot runner who wins the Olympic gold medal in the marathon would be my number one choice on any era at Marathon running.

I do everything I can to make my board with a veil of ignorance approach i.e. don’t allow it to be affected by consensus, mocks, etc., but I’m inevitably influenced so here are a few things I think might be different if I had truly never seen a mock:

-Davion Mitchell might be even lower (have him 24th). I enjoyed watching him in March but the numbers paint a picture of a guy who truly couldn’t make much of an impact until he was older than most of his competition. Even as a senior-aged junior, he still struggled from the line so there’s no reason to believe in his mirage of a 3PT%. When you take into account his measurables it’s hard to believe there aren’t objectively better options pretty much throughout the first round.

-Cade might be a little lower (have him 3rd). I think he’s legitimately a very good prospect, but take away his recruiting rank, reputation, etc. and I think you’re looking at someone people are hoping can turn into, say, Khris Middleton as opposed to the Luka/Simmons with a jumper comparisons. Middleton would of course be a great get at any point in the draft so again I’m not begrudging Cade, I just wish the discussion around him was a bit more level-headed.

-Cam Thomas might be higher (have him 20th). The chances that we look back at this draft and say “so, everyone just let arguably the best scorer in the whole draft who was also a freshman slip, that was kinda weird huh” are kind of high right?

Meanwhile, if this was a Rangers blog we would have grilled Drury uncessantly and probably the server would have shut down…

Ian Begley: Knicks have decisions to make on members of basketball operations group; several contracts expire at the end of the month. Western Conference teams have expressed interest in some within NYK’s basketball operations
https://twitter.com/IanBegley/status/1418647341574365190

Keep the band together, Leon.

I’ve mentioned this before but for the people who are so against the Knicks trading up and prefer them using both 1st rd picks, I have no clue who they should or shouldn’t draft but I will say if they have their sights on someone particular and are willing to trade up for him that means at least that player will be expected to contribute right away and will most likely be given plenty of opportunity to do so. If they stay at 19 and 21 I doubt both picks will be in the rotation or heck neither might even make the rotation.

So again if we really want to see a rookie next year contribute and show they will be part of the young core moving forward I think there is a much better chance of that happening if the Knicks trade up for a player than stay at 19 and 21. Maybe I’m wrong but I just don’t see how this team is going to plan on having a couple of rookies in the rotation next year.

If they stay at 19 and 21 I doubt both picks will be in the rotation or heck neither might even make the rotation.

again we have at least five spots open in the rotation…. and probably something like 7 spots on the roster open.. there’s no way to fill them all with quality free agents and keep a max slot open…. and if you’re filling with vets on one year deals then you should be using your draft picks instead….

you could still use one year deals and use your draft picks also and then play whoever wins the job in training camp… and either release the vet or send the pick to the gleague…. this idea that there’s no room for multiple draft picks on the roster is just not paying attention to the current situation….

I’m pretty sure at the very least have every intention to make the Top 6 again will go into next season relying on 3 rookies in the rotation especially rookies picked late in the 1st rd, early 2nd rd who at those picks are not guaranteed to even be marginal NBA players.

so instead who would we be relying on? austin rivers?

we essentially punted on the 35th pick this past year in favor of austin rivers…. and unless you want to blow all your cap space on free agents this year and not leave a max slot open… then it’s going to be austin rivers or someone like him again….

and are you saying you’d rather have austin rivers than whoever a late first or early 2nd? if you don’t believe in your ability to get good players in a supposed deep draft .. then you really have no business with draft picks in the first place…. and in that case you should trade them… but that’s usually because it’s a situation where you already have a deep roster and have no room for a guy to crack the rotation even if he is good….

who is on our roster that’s stopping a pick from being successful? who would you be signing that would make your picks irrelevant? relying on FA to fill your rotation is an expensive endeavour…

No one is opposed to trading up in principle. There are obviously times in which it can make sense. The problem is in the context of this draft specifically it’s simply very hard to imagine a realistic trade up that makes sense. For all potential targets there’s a valid “are we sure he’s better than [player who will likely be available at 19/21]?” question.

Even if your sole criteria is “who is most likely to help us next season?,” the more NBA-ready prospects are actually slated to go around where we’re picking as opposed to the late lottery (where we might realistically be able to land in a trade up). Who seems more likely to play meaningful minutes on a good team next year, Jared Butler or Keon Johnson? Chris Duarte or James Bouknight? I could go on but you get the point.

I’ve identified Giddey as someone I think would be worth some combination of 19/21/32, but sadly it seems the teams picking higher than us have as well and are thus going to be drafting him out of our trade up range. I’m open to changing my mind on this but I’m just not seeing a target who quite frankly even comes close to being worth surrendering the value that comes with multiple darts.

thenoblefacehumper: Davion Mitchell might be even lower (have him 24th). I enjoyed watching him in March but the numbers paint a picture of a guy who truly couldn’t make much of an impact until he was older than most of his competition. Even as a senior-aged junior, he still struggled from the line so there’s no reason to believe in his mirage of a 3PT%. When you take into account his measurables it’s hard to believe there aren’t objectively better options pretty much throughout the first round.

I guess this is the guy we will disagree on this year. Not that I think he will be a star, but the FT shooting means very little, except that he didn’t get to the line enough. I don’t see how getting better over his college career is a bad thing, he’s hyper-competitive and worked on his game and the results were very evident. He has a great motor, is as tough as nails, and looks ready to play NBA-level defense from day 1. He’s gotta work on the FTs and drawing fouls, but those are two good problems to have given his shooting %s at all levels.

**i’m curious to know who these guys are…. and besides that point…. sooner or later you need to fill the roster with bodies and cycling through more than half the roster with one year deals isn’t a sustainable strategy especially when you plan to be capped out in one more summer….**

Come on, basically every FA is going to be better than Rivers and certainly better than a random late 1st draft pick. We’re generally going that our late 1st picks end up worthy of becoming a random vet FA.

And we still have a surplus of picks this draft after we trade 2 for 1 and enough picks in the next 4 years to fill an entire roster. We will have zero issues creating a sustainable roster.

And I do believe the late lotto picks are more valuable than 19 & 21. Right now we look like we’ll have our choice between a bunch of so-so combo guards or Cs.

If we want to sign LaVine or Beal next year, then we need to be competitive. Giving significant minutes to anyone, let alone everyone, projected where we draft is not going to convince a player to sign here. If we’re punting on that plan, then fine. But I don’t think we are or necessarily want to.

But it’s not like we’re going to go 15 deep anyway! the 12th-15th men (not to mention the two-way slots) rarely play on any team, let alone a Thibs coached team. The question is should those spots go to the Austin Rivers of the world, or to prospects.

Philly is exponentially better than us and still thought the cost-benefit analysis worked out in favor of rostering Maxey, Isaiah Joe, and Paul Reed. Maxey of course was fully in their rotation, but the latter two barely did for the simple reason that the 14th and 15th men on a roster rarely play whether they’re recent draft picks or veterans. The question is what’s a better way to utilize those fringe roster spots, with recent draft picks or veterans? Since neither will play much anyway, I think the cost/benefit analysis pretty clearly cuts in favor of the former.

Come on, basically every FA is going to be better than Rivers and certainly better than a random late 1st draft pick. We’re generally going that our late 1st picks end up worthy of becoming a random vet FA.

You can take a look at who signed for one-year deals last year.. and it’s filled with a)ring chasing vets or b)players who have one-foot out the door of the league…

we have been using this strategy for the last.. 3-4 years? look at the guys who passed through for us… michael beasley? mario hezonja? wayne ellington? who else signed to a one year deal around the league? kent bazemore? carmelo anthony? jared dudley? langston galloway? noah vonleh? thon maker? these guys are better than whoever you plan to pick as a late first? and you plan to continually dip into this pool every year?

And we still have a surplus of picks this draft after we trade 2 for 1 and enough picks in the next 4 years to fill an entire roster. We will have zero issues creating a sustainable roster.

No we do not…

2021 Roster
1. Julius Randle
2. RJ Barrett
3. Mitch Robinson
4. Immanuel Quickley
5. Obi Toppin
6. PG1 vet via FA/Trade mulityear deal
7. SF1 vet via FA/Trade mulityear deal
8;. PG2 vet via FA(likely one year deal)
9. SF2 vet via FA (likely one year deal)
10. 2021 draft pick
11. Norvelle Pelle
12. Kevin Knox
13. Luca Vildoza
14. vet – one year deal
15. vet – one year deal

2022 roster
1. Julius Randle (assume we resign)
2. RJ Barrett
3. Mitch Robinson (assume we resign)
4. Immanuel Quickley
5. Obi Toppin
6. PG1 vet via FA/Trade mulityear deal
7. SF1 vet via FA/Trade mulityear deal
8;. 2021 draft pick
9. 2022 draft pick
aaaaand that’s it…

you want to fill a max slot it’s likely you’re only handing out one multiyear deal this year anyway…. and so how are you filling 5 other slots when you’re capped out every year after this?

From Davion Mitchell’s wikipedia page:
“During his redshirt year, he improved his all-around game and studied film on guards like Kyle Lowry and Jalen Brunson… [in 2020-21] He received the Naismith Defensive Player of the Year Award, NABC Defensive Player of the Year and the Lefty Driesell Award as the top defensive player in the nation.”

The 3pt shot looks real to me, as does the ability to create space off the dribble and score in the paint with both hands. He improved his offensive game through hard work and he already is a badass on D. While I wouldn’t necessarily trade up for him, if they do I won’t cry about it. Guys like him can play on my team any time.

**But it’s not like we’re going to go 15 deep anyway! the 12th-15th men (not to mention the two-way slots) rarely play on any team, let alone a Thibs coached team. The question is should those spots go to the Austin Rivers of the world, or to prospects.**

16 Pick
15 Pelle
14 Pick
13 Pick
12 Pick
11 Knox
10 Vildoza

That’s assuming pick 58 signs a 2-way, we’re already depending on at least 1 rookie being a rotation player, 2 if anyone gets injured.

Unless you really trust Pelle or know Vildoza can cut it, you’re taking a lot of risks.

@djphan,
What happened to Vildoza, Pelle, and our other draft picks in 2022?

You’re missing 2022 2nd rd pick & our other 2 2021 draft picks. We have 4 picks this year. If we trade 2 for 1, we still have 3 picks.

We also have the room exception. By my count that’s 6 players that evaporated from your 2022 roster. That’s a 15 man roster.

And looking at last year, Rivers finished with a -2.2 BPM.

Of picks 19-30, half played better & half played worse with 1 player stashed overseas.

Of the 30 picks in the 2nd rd, only a handful were better and usually not by much.

You see the same thing looking back to the 2019 draft.

I guess I differ with the opinion that trading up or trading picks for someone like Sexton is incinerating the picks.

Well, these are very different things and I am on the record as being tepidly in favor of the latter.

16 Pick
15 Pelle
14 Pick
13 Pick
12 Pick
11 Knox
10 Vildoza

It is definitely not a priority to me to roster Knox and/or Pelle (who is 28). I think it would be a god awful use of assets to prioritize keeping Pelle over, say, Charles Bassey, and Knox over Josh Christopher.

Pelle can be cut painlessly while Knox has another year under contract, but I think we could find someone who would take Knox for free if need be. I think even a second-rounder on a fresh rookie-scale deal has a better ROI than one more year of Kevin Knox at this point.

What happened to Vildoza, Pelle, and our other draft picks in 2022?

You’re missing 2022 2nd rd pick & our other 2 2021 draft picks. We have 4 picks this year. If we trade 2 for 1, we still have 3 picks.

Those are all non-guaranteed deals…. and saying that Vildoza and Pelle will make the roster in 2022… as well as the 58th pick…. that’s a pretty large assumption.. i also assume the 32nd pick gets evaporated also in a trade up because 19 and 21 alone isn’t getting you too far… and the 2022 2nd rd pick making the roster is an iffy proposition if we’re so against rookies on this squad right?

i mean the roster can be filled however you want… if we want we could probably sign Theo Pinson to perpetual one-year deals.. that doens’t mean it’s what you want to do…. the 10-15 spots in a lot of cases need to fill in for mistakes you made in free agency or the draft or injury.. that’s where a lot of high functioning organizations setup their depth… how do you think toronto developed Siakam.. FVV.. Boucher… Watanabe… Delon Wright? and they were a regular playoff team that continually replenished the roster through the draft and taking flyers on guys towards the end of the roster…

just compare the one year vet player pool vs the late first pool…. you MIGHT beat out the average late first in one season… but it’s going to be pretty tough to beat them EVERY year especially when they are more expensive AND older AND the fact that you CAN’T EVEN RESIGN them in the event they do work out… all your upside just gets lopped off in those deals as we’re witnessing firsthand now…

seriously the one year vet market doesn’t present ANY upside whatsoever… it’s treading water.. gambling on a player who’s about to head overseas or retire… or gambling on a big year so that they can sign a big contract ELSEWHERE… there’s really nothing in it for us other than the immediate impact.. and we got it but that’s it..

and the only reason we went the one year vet route was because we had a roster devoid of talent and the picks to replenish the roster… the picks we did have languished and became husks… and so we wanted to be competitive so we took a bunch of flyers on guys towards that goal…

if you’re trading picks for actual top level talent.. if the reason you want to trade picks is because you think everyone where you’re picking is terrible and the guys you’re targeting is a real top flight guy… you should do that.. you should not trade picks because ‘you cannot play three rookies’ especially when you have all these roster spots open… that’s the type of thing you say as you’re rearranging chairs on the titanic….

I’m saying if we use our surplus of picks intelligently, we can compete today and tomorrow. If the cost of moving up is 3 picks, I’m not making that trade.

If a more competitive team can net us better FAs before we max out our salary cap, that improves our future. If there’s a chance Beal or LaVine goes to FA & signs with us, that does more for the future of our team.

I don’t advocate for trading picks needlessly, but in our current situation we can afford to trade up if there’s a target we like. We have 4 picks, Vildoza, and Pelle. We don’t need all 4 picks. Another year, I’d keep them but this year is our last shot to convince 2022 FAs we’re a better choice than another team.

If we end up signing Ball this year and Lowry on a 2yr deal, then by all means we should absolutely keep the picks.

And yeah, obviously you don’t make the trade up unless you think someone at 13 or 14 is better. You’re not doing it solely to clear roster space.

My whole point is that we’re carrying 5 rookies into the season if we make all 4 picks. We’re not going to find minutes for all 5 of them. We will need at least 1 of them to give us good minutes off the bench when someone gets injured.

And yes, you do it because you think pick 13 or 14 is better than 21. You’re not punting on a pick you’re trying to find more value from your picks. You can take the risk of 1 less lottery ticket because you already have 5 lotto tickets.

My whole point is that we’re carrying 5 rookies into the season if we make all 4 picks. We’re not going to find minutes for all 5 of them.

That’s why you have the gleague… and if they’re good enough why can’t you play them? we came off a season where we played two rookies major rotation minutes… a second year player was second on the team in minutes and we played knox and frank some in the rotation when they were absolutely terrible… and that’s when we actually had vets on the team….

if you want to go the one year vet route… there’s nothing stopping us from doing that AND keeping the picks… in fact that’s probably the optimal approach to keep cap space open for next year… you can let the rookies earn it and send them to the gleague if they’re not up to par and play all the vets you want… the problem arises is not even giving them an opportunity and RELYING on one year vets…

you’re basically saying the core as it stands now is good enough.. and that couldn’t be further from the truth… we need more talent… and draft picks are the easiest way to get it…

I also like Grimes more than some of the players mocked currently around the Knicks picks on nbadraft.net. Dosunmu and Sengun are also players I’m interested in, and I would trade up for Giddy if I could.

For the life of me I can’t understand what I’m missing on Quentin Grimes that he’s not a lottery pick but Davion Mitchell is. The finishing and 2PT% are concerning but the kid is just a lights out shooter that can absolutely put the ball on the floor and make something happen. I’d draft Grimes and Butler at 19 and 21 and never look back.

Yeah, count me out on trading up. Let Trey Murphy and Chris Duarte rise and push some great prospects our way. We could leave this draft with Butler, Grimes, and Bassey and I’d be very happy with that outcome.

Alan:
Berman of the Post:

Some things never change…

Grimes has some glaring weaknesses to his game. Zero left hand, loose dribble, no 2pt game whatsoever. I would WAY rather have Mitchell than him, it’s not even in the same area code.

“That’s why you have the gleague… “

The Knicks don’t need to develop role players over time. Last year they demonstrated they could find veteran role players at reasonable prices.

The Knicks have to maximize the chances of getting an all star caliber player.

To do that when you are outside the top few lottery picks, you generally have to combine picks to move up or use picks and players in a trade. If you can’t move up or there is no one you want to target then maybe you want to or have to use the shotgun approach. But no way should we be using any draft picks to select players to stick in the G league hoping they eventually become role players. That’s a waste.

People need to understand that the only reason Lonzo Ball was on the perimeter shooting 3s and playing off the ball a lot last year was because Stan VanGundy was trying to turn Zion and Ingram into point forwards. It wasn’t because Ball is not a PG. in fact, the reason there was speculation about Ball wanting out to begin with is that he and Lavar did not like his role on New Orleans. They both believe he’s a PG. You should ignore all his stats and everything you saw from last year other than maybe his 3 point shooting. If Ball decides to stay in New Orleans it could very well party be because SVG is out and the new coach is going allow him to be the PG.

I am not against trading up for a few reasons. Higher draft picks have more trade value on the market, so when/if we trade for a star, we will have more ammo with a recent #9 versus a recent #19, regardless of their play. Second, I trust our staff would move up for a reason — that they like a guy in the lottery better than the pool of guys in the late first round.

I’m also not against drafting 3 guys versus 2, but I assume they will try to optimize their value in this draft no matter which route they choose. Also, there will be some great undrafted guys to jump on as g-league options.

Apparently Frank is the invisible 6th man

Seen Keon Johnson falling to us in a few recent mocks. Very interesting talent

Keon is super-athletic but doesn’t seem to have much consistency on the offensive end. He seems like at best a backup for RJ for the next couple of years. I don’t see the reason to take him if other more skilled 2-way players are on the board. But the upside is tantalizing for sure.

thenoblefacehumper: For sure man.

How did I know that was coming?

Early Bird:
Apparently Frank is the invisible 6th man

Frankie was only trying to help out Team USA by not playing. He’s torn between two continents.

I don’t love Keon Johnson at all–I’m probably lower on him than the consensus and have Springer ranked higher.

However if he actually fell to us (as opposed to trading up for him which BLECHHHHHHHH) he’d be a damn good value proposition. He is definitely a project with a wide range of outcomes, but the higher end of those outcomes is, I think, significantly higher than most other options.

thenoblefacehumper:
I don’t love Keon Johnson at all–I’m probably lower on him than the consensus and have Springer ranked higher.

However if he actually fell to us (as opposed to trading up for him which BLECHHHHHHHH) he’d be a damn good value proposition. He is definitely a project with a wide range of outcomes, but the higher end of those outcomes is, I think, significantly higher than most other options.

Yeah, and I would add that even if he fell to us there would probably be a surer bet available at 19 and/or 21. It wouldn’t be Frank/Knox-level bad, but certainly an upside over objectivity pick. Normakky that’s not a bad thing well outside the lottery but this draft is deep with higher floor guys.

I’d also take Springer in a heartbeat at #19, he looks great!

kevin5318:
Seen Keon Johnson falling to us in a few recent mocks. Very interesting talent

Yes, please. Of course, as a UT Vol alumnus, I’m terribly biased.

A couple of Knicks-related notes in Shams’ latest NBA notebook, plus one that should be of interest to folks here:

Oregon guard Chris Duarte, a projected top-20 pick, received an invite to the draft Green Room at Barclays Center and his stock is rising in eyes of teams. Golden State and New York are among the teams eyeing Duarte, who has a second workout with the Warriors on Sunday, sources said.

The Knicks are having discussions to try to trade picks Nos. 19 and 21 to move up in the draft, sources said.

The Grizzlies and Pelicans have discussed a trade that would send guard New Orleans’ Eric Bledsoe and the No. 10 pick to Memphis for No. 17, sources said. Memphis has explored moving up in the draft.

JK47:
Keon is good at… jumping? He seems to be lacking pretty badly in tangible basketball skills. I get it that jumping is important and that he’s an impressive athlete, but he’s a very risky prospect with a low floor.

Shhh. 🙂 His shooting was pretty bad at UT. He’s tough and has a high motor, is a willing defender and rebounder, and cuts well to the basket. If he can improve his shooting, he’ll be terrific; he’s a real good slasher right now. He’d be fine at #19, if he falls that far. Get a shooter with #21.

The Team USA 3-on-3 team would have Kevin Knox on it so there would be no point in any other nation bothering to play

I would give Keon Johnson a little bit more credit… if you liked Devin Vassell at all last year Johnson probably would’ve gone slightly ahead of him.. shooting about equal.. younger… just as good of a defender maybe better and more experience as a secondary ballhandler for an offense… way more of an all around athlete… and the numbers back that assessment….

this year that’s sort of backend of the lottery or maybe just outside of it but he’s absolutely a solid guy in that range… the reason for the wide range of opinions is because there’s a lot of guys that grade out right around where he is… him and springer are pretty indistinguishable… some teams with playoff aspirations want help now and so perception is that an older guy gets them there quicker… and that’s how Duarte might leap him… but he’s good… he might need to develop more but that goes for just about everyone drafted even the older ones….

New mock from Givony. Has us taking Ziaire Williams, Kai Jones, Ayo Dosunmu, and Jeremiah Robinson-Earl in that order. In the process we pass on Cam Thomas, Jaden Springer, Jared Butler, Sharife Cooper, Tre Mann, Bones Hyland, and other players who are better than both of the first two picks.

I mean…what even is there to say? I like Dosunmu a lot and would still regard this as an unmitigated disaster. I am cautiously optimistic that nothing even remotely close to it will happen, as this is pretty much the polar opposite of what a team looking for immediate contributors would do (not that I think that should be our strategy, you just get the impression that it in fact will be).

i don’t think stan van gundy followed ball around for 4 years and made him do this….

Never change, Strat. Always, always, always stick to your guns as a big time Sayer of Things.

I’d be okay with Ziaire if that’s who they want to go with, but why would they take Kai Jones when they have Obi and Randle? That makes no sense and reeks of Givony just hedging and making stuff up. I’d be willing to bet that we don’t pick him at either spot, and that we pick one of the guys you mentioned if they are available.

If we could get the 10th pick and all we have to do is overpay Eric Bledsoe for a year it would be malpractice not to do it

They stink

Max: Because drafting is for free, can give you cost controlled assets (or trade pawns) while trading for a star can (can, not must) bleed you to death, especially if you are a team with only 5 (Randle, Barrett, IQ, Toppin, Mitch) rotation players coming back from last year?

Trading for a star is not “bad” in principle, it always depends on the cost and the players/assets left after the trade…

Rookies guarantee nothing. They need time to develop and we have Frank, Knox and Toppin prove to us that betting on rookies is a crap shoot. Known commodities are birds in a hand. I’ve had this debate many times here. We need to move up in the power rankings now, not down.

thenoblefacehumper:
The Yankees are running a fascinating experiment wherein they see just how many times they can hurt me even after I’ve confidently declared complete emotional divestment in this season

The Scranton kids gave me false hope. But now I officially give up. Sell at the deadline and re-tool for next season. The last time Cashman did that, it netted them Gleyber.

thenoblefacehumper:
New mock from Givony. Has us taking Ziaire Williams, Kai Jones, Ayo Dosunmu, and Jeremiah Robinson-Earl in that order. In the process we pass on Cam Thomas, Jaden Springer, Jared Butler, Sharife Cooper, Tre Mann, Bones Hyland, and other players who are better than both of the first two picks.

I mean…what even is there to say? I like Dosunmu a lot and would still regard this as an unmitigated disaster. I am cautiously optimistic that nothing even remotely close to it will happen, as this is pretty much the polar opposite of what a team looking for immediate contributors would do (not that I think that should be our strategy, you just get the impression that it in fact will be).

Never change, Strat. Always, always, always stick to your guns as a big time Sayer of Things.

Reality is reality.

Stats without context are GIGO.

Join reality on Lozo. He was playing off the ball and shooting more 3s by design. That does not mean he’s not capable of making more plays if he’s given that role with another coach or on another team.

The Lakers are looking for a playmaking PG to take some of the pressure off Lebron and to potentially replace Schroder. They are interested in Ball for that job, It’s not to play off the ball and shoot 3s. Naturally, if he’s shooting 3s better that a huge bonus no matter what his role. But they want him for his playmaking.

Last one on Lonzo.

If you are going to insist that he be able to penetrate and finish as often as a PG like peak Rose (or that style), you should understand he’d be a max player if he could do that. CP3 doesn’t do that.

Early Bird: Frank

LOL. He may have been our invisible sixth man too last season.

Not Knicks related..but as a sports fan..Holy fuck that Padres infield is sick! They have an old school build to it. Nowadays everyone wants power hitting corner outfield and power hitting shortstop. But man that infield they have is nice all the way around in San Diego now that they are adding Frazier.

On to the Knicks..they way prospects are moving up the board in this new round of mocks worry me. It’s setting us up to trade our first to either move up or get a player already in the league. I kinda had my heart set on a 2-3 players from the Bouknight/Murphy/Cooper/Mann/Bassey/ Duarte/Bleijenbergh mix. I saw the latest ESPN mock that had Bouknight going 6 to OKC! Holy shit! If Murphy and Duarte are gone at 19, do we trade down for Mann and a rotational player, or grab Cooper with 19 then package 21 and Knox to get something else. ESPN does have Kau Jones falling to us at 21- so that opens the door to move Obi if need be.

Lawd this draft has me more antsy than I can ever remember being in the past..I dunno..10 or so years.

As for my Yankees I’ve never seen a season like this before which basically illustrates how amazing their bullpen has been for the past 25 years. I’m not used to blowing these amount of games in such embarrassing fashion, now I know what it feels like to root for the Mets!

Having said all that they’re just 3 and 1/2 games out of the 2nd WC spot and if they actually make some moves at the trade deadline which they haven’t bothered doing the past 2 years they can easily overtake Oakland especially since they have a very favorable schedule in August. But a part of me wants them to miss the playoffs which hopefully guarantees Boone is gone and forces the front office to re-evaluate the way they have been doing things the past couple of years. Granted it will also take Hal to change his ways too and not sure if he gives a shit enough to do so.

And on the subject of the Yankees, I don’t follow them much, but I have the distinct impression changing to Boone as manager hasn’t helped and may have hurt.

If we don’t jump on the chance to get Bledsoe with an asset attached I agree it is malpractice.

i think it’s going to be tough now that it’s rumored the grizzlies have jumped in the discussion and i imagine OKC… who has pick 16….can beat everyone’s offer…

With alot of the potential players Knicks would want at 19 and 21 going alot earlier in recent mock drafts wouldn’t that lead credence to the rumors the Knicks want to trade up and wouldn’t that make it more reasonable to do so?

i think if you read the tea leaves… the rumors of the knicks trading up started awhile ago and so the trade up target is likely someone who was in the late lotto range from the beginning of the process… I kind of think it’s someone like Moody but could be Kuminga or anyone… just guesses at this point…

i dont’ imagine these trade up rumors beings any of these guys currently ‘rising’ because of that..

Trading up is advisable if you see a guy you feel has more upside than anyone who is likely to be available to you at your draft spots. Imagine trading up for Kawhi, or Giannis….obviously recognizing those guys is an art form, but that’s what you pay your guys to do. Maybe Ziaire is that guy, or Keon, or even an old guy like Davion or Duarte. So long as you have done your best due diligence, and have counted enough cards to get the odds in your favor, I hav eno problem with going for it. But you better hit at least.a double.

I suspect the trade up target is Giddey or Jalen Johnson. They’re the players who are plausibly available in the late lotto and have the upside to justify trading 2 picks. It’s a departure from last year’s strategy, but they make the most sense to me as trade up targets unless Kuminga or Bouknight fall.

thenoblefacehumper: -He is 6’0?, so his defensive prowess will translate to maybe containing some penetration from lead guards and not much else.

Would you say this is true for Chris Paul? Or Kyle Lowry? Or Patrick Beverley? Or Avery Johnson? He won several NCAA DPOY awards and most scouting reports I’ve read refer to him as elite and capable of guarding bigger players (see: Cade Cunningham). Mike Schmitz call him one of the best defensive players he ever evaluated.

thenoblefacehumper: -He cannot shoot the ball. His one-year 3PT% aside, the man is a 66% free throw shooter over a three year sample size.

1) Why is what he did in his first 2 years of NCAA ball just as relevant as what he did in his last year? Is improvement not a thing? Wouldn’t you be more concerned if he regressed? He had a .619 TS% on over 300 FGA, including 57% on 168 2PA and 45% on 144 3PA. How can you possibly think that shooting 64% on 64 FTA mitigates his outstanding shooting on all levels, and that many of those attempts were contested off-the-dribble shots of a much higher degree of difficulty? Do you really think that fixing his FTs is a huge problem? Mitchell shot 43.5 percent on catch-and-shoot jumpers, averaging 1.306 points-per-possession, good for the 91st percentile nationally, according to Synergy. He shot 43.6 percent on off-the-dribble jumpers, averaging 1.139 PPP, which was good for the 95th percentile nationally.

thenoblefacehumper:
-He doesn’t get to the line, like at all. He took 2.6 FTA/40 as (basically) a senior.

I get this and agree it is a red flag, but it could be the reverse case of Quickley in that he was so quick at getting to the rim (or just scoring in general) that he didn’t need to hunt fouls at the NCAA level?

Vildoza with another end of quarter steal in the backcourt,hits a little floater. Not guarding Luka, but his unit closed the gap a bit.

“zaire williams and kai jones are some of the biggest landmines in the draft”.

Only seen each of them a few times, I thought Kai looked pretty good though. Ziaire is a twig who can’t shoot (yet) and wasn’t really that impactful defensively, so I get it. Kai was really effecient inside and from 3 though…. Good stock numbers. Rebounding is a red flag (also only 15 pts per 40), but UT had a lot of good bigs so not sure how much that impacted things. Why is he a landmine?

Honestly, mostly just hoping there are no win-now moves (trading up for Duarte or an average vet). This team needs more young talent and is not ready for any kind of playoff push.

Most of Luca’s counting stats came in the 4th of a blowout, but he looked good nonetheless. He should’ve finished with another assist but Scola bobbled it and missed the layup.

I don’t think Luca goes all the way into the paint enough, he pulls short for a floater or makes a bailout pass. Hoping that changes when he knows Mitch is looming rather than a very under the basket Scola.

Oh man, I just realized I’m going away for the weekend on Thursday, so I’ll miss the draft! I’ll still follow it from my hotel, though (and I’ll have a post up, of course).

We probably need a new thread between now and a draft thread. This ones already pretty long.

(con’d) Third, there’s the “it” factor. While I don’t think they are a perfect match, the closest comp I see in the NBA for Mitchell is Lowry. Nothing about Lowry stands out in and of itself. He’s just a winning player. He understands who he is physically and gets the most out of it to make winning plays. I’m buying into Mitchell being that kind of player. It’s a fool’s errand to bet against guys with his level of competitiveness and mental toughness. If he needs to improve his FT% and FTr, he will figure it out.

(just a qualification, when I said “I’d rather bet that his FT% will wind up in the 80s than his 3pt% will regress into the 30s.” I was talking over a couple of years, not in year 1.

Only seen each of them a few times, I thought Kai looked pretty good though. Ziaire is a twig who can’t shoot (yet) and wasn’t really that impactful defensively, so I get it. Kai was really effecient inside and from 3 though…. Good stock numbers. Rebounding is a red flag (also only 15 pts per 40), but UT had a lot of good bigs so not sure how much that impacted things. Why is he a landmine?

I don’t think the stock numbers look good… 1.5/1.6 per 40 for a big isn’t all that great…. if you think he’s a stretch big then maaaybe it’s fine but then we’re getting into bench player territory… for a starter all the #s are very poor … especially the rebounding where it’s probably decent if you think he’s a small forward… but as a PF or C you’re looking for about 50% more than what he got…

for reference bobby portis.. who’s actually a pretty decent stretch big… also came out as a sophomore and was basically across the board better numbers wise… and he’s basically a 7th man…

but sometimes bigs who perform poorly breakout in the nba… it’s rare but it does happen.. deandre jordan and bam adebayo are two famous examples… this sort of gets back to the preseason hype sometimes justifying picks alone as highly regarded recruits can sometimes get themselves into a terrible situation and their freshman year isn’t indicative of their true talent level….. or in the case of bam they unlock skills they never showed previously…

the problem with kai is that he’s had two seasons of pretty terrible play.. he hasn’t gotten a ton of minutes but that’s probably because he’s terrible.. the dimensions look ok but he’s rail thin without showing the ability or desire to bang.. the athleticism doesn’t look all that special.. and the 3pt shooting looks ok on the surface but i have a tough time seeing a 70% shooter at the line getting to 38% at the pro’s at least immediately..

he’s the biggest landmine in the draft…

There are definitely things to like about Mitchell. He is a competitor but working hard and having “it” isn’t always enough especially when things are not there physically. His size and physicality stats (rebounds, steals, and blocks RSB) are not what I want to see in a 21-year-old lottery pick. He could end up being good but I see a lot of risk in him and not enough high end upside to counter that risk.

The Physicality stats are a big difference between him and Lowry, Paul, and Beverley. Lowry averaged 9.4 RSB/40, Paul 7.2, and Beverley 9.8 during their final years in college, all sophomore years, Mitchell had a 5.9 RSB/40. Mitchell is also 2 years older than both Paul and Lowry were and 1 year older than Beverley. Lowry was also picked at #24 and Beverley was a 2nd rounder. I like Mitchell a lot more at 24 and would be very pleased with him in the 2nd round but he is going to probably be picked in the top 10.

I was a little disappointed they didn’t let him get the points record, but it’s not like won’t have another chance while carrying this squad.

Luka trying to do too much again, I see. Holding his talented teammates back and stuffing the box score with empty stats. Smdh

Right now, without Rose, Noel, Bullock and Burks being signed, we’re a much worse team than we were last season. I hope that we don’t get carried away with a win now attitude because we have a lot more work to do. Just make the picks.

Ben R:
There are definitely things to like about Mitchell. He is a competitor but working hard and having “it” isn’t always enough especially when things are not there physically. His size and physicality stats (rebounds, steals, and blocks RSB) are not what I want to see in a 21-year-old lottery pick. He could end up being good but I see a lot of risk in him and not enough high end upside to counter that risk.

The Physicality stats are a big difference between him and Lowry, Paul, and Beverley. Lowry averaged 9.4 RSB/40, Paul 7.2, and Beverley 9.8 during their final years in college, all sophomore years, Mitchell had a 5.9 RSB/40. Mitchell is also 2 years older than both Paul and Lowry were and 1 year older than Beverley. Lowry was also picked at #24 and Beverley was a 2nd rounder. I like Mitchell a lot more at 24 and would be very pleased with him in the 2nd round but he is going to probably be picked in the top 10.

All fair points. Playing for a physical team like Baylor makes it hard to evaluate Mitchell’s physicality stats beyond his primary role on both ends. When you play for a team that just absolutely steamrolled its way to a NCAA chip, including bludgeoning undefeated, uberhyped Gonzaga, what else did he need to do beyond what he did? Mitchell strikes me as a “do what it takes to win” kind of guy, sort of like Jalen Brunson in that respect. Was Brunson worth a mid-lottery pick? Probably not. Would he have been a great pick at #19? Absolutely. The only sticking point is whether his shot is for real. After looking at his synergy stats and watching his film, I’m a believer.

Early Bird:
Most of Luca’s counting stats came in the 4th of a blowout, but he looked good nonetheless. He should’ve finished with another assist but Scola bobbled it and missed the layup.

I don’t think Luca goes all the way into the paint enough,he pulls short for a floater or makes a bailout pass. Hoping that changes when he knows Mitch is looming rather than a very under the basket Scola.

Thank you for the updates.

SI’s latest mock draft has us taking Isaiah Jackson AND Usman Garuba, which would be insane. I don’t particularly want either guy, much less both of them. And then somehow, Sharife Cooper falls to us at 32.

A reminder that anyone we pick at 19 or 21 (or even if we move up some spots), is going to have question marks. You do not get a complete prospect later in the first round.

Alan:
SI’s latest mock draft has us taking Isaiah Jackson AND Usman Garuba, which would be insane. I don’t particularly want either guy, much less both of them. And then somehow, Sharife Cooper falls to us at 32.

Some of these mocks are real head-scratchers. Why would the knicks take players who not only don’t fill a need but aren’t the best players available and whose roles could be easily filled by a low-cost FA? If we are planning to keep Randle, then why not put a team around him? If we were talking about Mobley, sure, draft a big. But Jackson? That sounds like the Kentucky hype train going off the rails. And Garuba?

Just like with the Givony mock, I would be willing to bet that we don’t take either of these guys. There is absolutely no reason for them to prioritize rim protection and rebounding over playmaking and shooting.

Yeah, like I said earlier about Keon, Mitchell would be a no-brainer at 19. Neither of those guys will probably be there at 19, but you never know with such a big cluster of guys and the subjectivity of teams’ evaluations.

I’m in the “keep and make the two first round picks” camp. Two dice rolls at making a 7 rather than just one. 🙂

And yeah, certainly see if you can get into the Bledsoe sweepstakes.

I found a good representative look at Mitchell’s FT shooting in this game film and it’s definitely a bit more concerning that I thought. He has a hitchy, wristy motion that doesn’t look like his stroke from the field at all. I think it’s fixable, but certainly it’s not just a random thing that he’s missing.

Isaiah Jackson does have some skills. Some hook shots, a couple of turnaround baseline jumpers in his highlights. His blocks numbers are insane and he’s not a bad free throws shooter.

PLEASE DO NOT BRING BACK CARMELO ANTHONY THANK YOU PLEASE DEAR GOD.

Judging by the Knicks’ picks, it looks to me like many mock drafts are merely mislabeled big boards in disguise looking for clicks.

Meanwhile, some interesting tweets from Givony, as followup to him saying he’s not expecting a big trade bonanza:

@DraftExpress
The two teams that could really shake things up are the Knicks and Thunder. Both have significant financial flexibility to absorb bad contracts as well as multiple picks to package and potentially move up. Their front offices will likely be busy fielding calls this week.

@DraftExpress
In the Knicks case, they’ll need to weigh the benefits of keeping their books clear for a star that maybe eventually wants out (eg: Beal, Lillard, Towns, Lavine, etc) versus the opportunity cost of continuing to build their roster organically with smaller moves around the edges.

there’s a bunch of teams who don’t mind trading first rd picks.. except they want vets in return or they want to unload a bad contract…

the bledsoe deal is pretty easy… the problem is OKC or Memphis will cockblock us on it quite easily…. we also have our own free agent plans this summer and there’s a non-zero chance the bledsoe deal interferes with it also…

the next option is the Kings… but unless you’re swallowing the hield deal… which is much worse than bledsoe’s… then it’s probably not worth discussing.. they’re also looking for a vet…

the warriors and pacers probably want to trade out… but they are also looking for vets.. in the case of the warriors they are big game hunting so we’re just not in the conversation….

the spurs might be a good partner but all indications are they are looking to move up and not down…

I think all these rumors about us wanting to move up are probably true … no matter how bad of an idea that is… but it’s another thing entirely to find a partner who’s willing to trade down to make it happen… which is why i thought it was unlikely for it to happen in the first place…

but who knows… maybe we’re really that motivated to incinerate some picks and we just offer both picks to jump up a couple slots for Usman Garuba … i certainly hope that’s not that the case tho…

Mitchell strikes me as a “do what it takes to win” kind of guy, sort of like Jalen Brunson in that respect.

Jalen Brunson was really good at basketball in college. Even as a freshman his 2PT% was above .500, his 3PT% was .383 and his FT% was .774. He only improved on those numbers after. His college career arc was night and day from Mitchell’s.

Clearly Mitchell’s role would not be to be a switchable big wing, I’m not sure why it is useful to bring that up. He probably won’t be much of a rim protector either. The point is that he will be a net plus on the defensive end

I bring it up because he can be a net plus on defense without being particularly impactful on defense. This means he still won’t be worth playing if you’re not getting good offensive contributions. We…have some experience with this (Mitchell is a better offensive player than [redacted], just making the larger point).

Or are you just blindly following the FT%=shooting potential mantra, as if there’s no variance?

I am blindly following the idea that if someone shoots 29%, 32%, and 45% from 3 in three years, and they shoot 68%, 66%, and 64% from the line in those same years, you have 6 sets of data with which you can evaluate their shooting ability and 5 of them tell the exact same story.

Again, if you think despite all of that his most recent 3PT% is what really matters, because reasons, and we’re looking at high-volume Steve Novak, more power to you. We’ll find out who’s right!

Lol Melo!

The issue with Isaiah Jackson is the glut of Cs in the league. Is he better than Nerlens Noel or Willie Cauley-Stein? Probably WCS & on offense definitely better than Noel, but how much better?

Noel was signed for $5M last year, WCS can likely be had for a similar price this year.

And how much better is Jackson than Bassey or Queta who we can likely draft at 32 and 58, respectively?

Bigs just aren’t worth what they used to be unless we know the can bring more.

Doesn’t that suggest improvement? It would be one thing if his 45% year was sandwiched between the two. Was RJ’s year an outlier or suggestive of future success? Was Julius Randle’s 3pt improvement a mirage?

Why are you ignoring that his FT% stayed completely stagnant/declined? If Julius Randle shot 64%, as opposed to 81%, from the line this year, I would definitely be a lot more worried his 3PT% was a mirage.

I have never heard of a prospect legitimately (as in, in a manner translatable to the NBA) going from bad to absolutely elite when it comes to 3PT% with absolutely zero accompanying FT% improvement.

Considering that I’m arguing with someone who thought Killian Hayes was a better prospect than LaMelo Ball, that IQ was an incomprehensible reach, and that Devon Dotson was lottery-worthy talent, I’ll take my chances.

Ha, yeah, not looking like a great call on my part. By the way I think you forgot to post your big board for last year’s draft, as well as all of the others. Just something to get around to when you have a chance.

always loved watching the olympics as a kid, in the 70’s boxing was one of my favorites, liked the track and field stuff a lot too…i remember what happened in ’80 had a big impact on the country’s and my own views towards the olympics…

still the olympics are a great showcase for some of the most unbelievable athletes in the world…hard not to watch gymnastics and marvel at what they’re able to achieve, honestly, the balance beam just scares the heck out of me – it’s like watching some scary horror flic the whole time they’re up there…

You’re the guy who thought Ron Baker was a good player. Pobody’s nerfect.

I also might be just a tad more humble if this was in my post history.

If we bring Melo back I wonder if RuRu comes back, too.

thenoblefacehumper: Why are you ignoring that his FT% stayed completely stagnant/declined? If Julius Randle shot 64%, as opposed to 81%, from the line this year, I would definitely be a lot more worried his 3PT% was a mirage.

I have never heard of a prospect legitimately (as in, in a manner translatable to the NBA) going from bad to absolutely elite when it comes to 3PT% with absolutely zero accompanying FT% improvement.

I’m not ignoring it, in fact I just posted video and said it was definitely concerning. And I am agreeing with you that Mitchell is not a safe pick where he is currently projected to go, largely for that reason. I’m just more confident than you are that his 3pt shooting was for real and that the FT shooting is fixable, mainly due to his mechanics. I also think his defense is more impactful than you do (so do most analysts) and that he will translate into at least a solid 2-way NBA player, somewhere between Brunson and Lowry. He should have been mocked in our range, it’s the NCAA hype that moved him up 10 or so spots. In our range, I’d be thrilled to take a shot on him. No way I’d trade up for him, though.

thenoblefacehumper: Ha, yeah, not looking like a great call on my part. By the way I think you forgot to post your big board for last year’s draft, as well as all of the others. Just something to get around to when you have a chance.

I don’t post a board, and focus mostly on players who are in the Knicks pick range. And because of that, my opinions are generally tempered, with some exceptions…Frank, Killian, LaMelo, Hali, Bane. Most of my “exceptions” are agreed upon by the KB consensus…e.g. Knox. I respect that you put in enough time to post a big board, and fully expect that there will be clunkers no matter how good you are at it. But you were pretty condescending/dismissive about LaMelo vs. Hayes and IQ vs. Dotson. So when it turns out that you were dead wrong on both counts, you would think that you’d be more hesitant to say shit like “because reasons” and “more power to you” in response to my arguments. No biggie, though, always fun looking back!

JK47:
You’re the guy who thought Ron Baker was a good player. Pobody’s nerfect.

Ron will come back! He’ll come back and he’ll be millions!

Z-man: Ron will come back! He’ll come back and he’ll be millions!

he is/was (not sure if they got eliminated) coaching the ex-wichita state players team in the basketball tourney on ESPN for a million…he got a new hair cut to boot…no more mop head…

BTW I’ve been trying to keep things civil and to not get snarky and combative with tnfh in the Mitchell discussion. Is there anythig I said that can be construed in a negative manner? OTOH I don’t know how else responses like “because reasons” and “more power to you!” can be interpreted.

Alan:
Well, so much for that:

Honestly, I’d have been fine taking on the Bledsoe contract. The Steven Adams extension, not nearly as much.

Wow, for two small market teams this is a big trade!
It can also mean that now the Pels can pay Lonzo (and maybe Hart) right?

Max, or it means they can go big game-hunting for someone like Kyle Lowry.

The Adams extension was just a bad idea, but he should fit in pretty well in Memphis, which is never a player for big free agents, anyway. Seems like a win-win for both teams. And a deal we would not have wanted to be involved in.

@BobbyMarks42
Pelicans could have up to $36M in room but at the cost of Lonzo Ball and Josh Hart.

Room goes down to $25M if they let Ball walk and bring back Hart.

Both Jonas and Adam are sort of dinosaurs, wouldn’t want to be saddled with either one.

Trading up for a specific guy before the draft starts seems like a poor plan, I imagine the Grizz have a couple targets

Found this article interesting:
How to draft with data: Should mid-first round teams like the Knicks draft polished or raw prospects?

@KevinOConnorNBA
Sources: The Grizzlies are interested in moving up again after acquiring the 10th pick from the Pelicans.

Jonathan Kuminga or James Bouknight are potential targets for Memphis with another trade-up.

Speaking for myself, I genuinely wasn’t intending to be even 1% snippy when I said “more power to you.” I was being incredibly literal: if you can look past the FT%, then that obviously explains the difference in our opinions. I didn’t see the point in a prolonged back-and-forth on the matter because one of us will be proven empirically correct before terribly long.

I would say I turned the snippiness up to 10% or so with “because reasons” in response to you rhetorically asking if I was “blindly following” the idea that FT% has some predictable power re: NBA 3PT%. I also genuinely do not understand the reason one would overlook that, though, so I’m not sure what the 0% snippiness version would’ve looked like.

Alan:

A double jump like in checkers?

I think this was a good move for the Pelicans. They’ll have more space in the paint with Valanciunas at C and that will help open things up for Zion inside. It also opens up cap space to pursue an upgrade at PG in free agency or to keep one of their younger players. For Memphis I guess it depends what they have in mind in the draft. If there is someone specific they are on the prowl for it can make sense. I read they want to move up even further.

I continue to think Valinciunas is one of the most underrated players in the league. He’s a little bit of a dinosaur and he starts to present some problems at the highest levels where it’s hard to keep slow-footed Cs in the rotation but in the regular season he quietly puts up monster numbers year after year. High usage, high efficiency, good rebounder, and underrated as a regular season defender where being big is the most important thing. I think Memphis will really miss him.

And I know Steven Adams has long been a favorite of just about everybody (myself included) but I thought he looked dangerously close to washed up last year. I’d be slightly wary of relying on him in a rotation role going forward.

thenoblefacehumper:
Speaking for myself, I genuinely wasn’t intending to be even 1% snippy when I said “more power to you.” I was being incredibly literal: if you can look past the FT%, then that obviously explains the difference in our opinions. I didn’t see the point in a prolonged back-and-forth on the matter because one of us will be proven empirically correct before terribly long.

I would say I turned the snippiness up to 10% or so with “because reasons” in response to you rhetorically asking if I was “blindly following” the idea that FT% has some predictable power re: NBA 3PT%. I also genuinely do not understand the reason one would overlook that, though, so I’m not sure what the 0% snippiness version would’ve looked like.

Fair enough. As I said, I’m not overlooking it, just seeing it as less disqualifying in the context of all the other data.

I continue to think Valinciunas is one of the most underrated players in the league.

Completely agree. I still think this is a win for Memphis because they don’t really sign free agents anyway and JV is still a rather modest price to pay to move all the way up to 10 and get another late first, but I am a bit surprised they moved him.

As long as you don’t pay him starter money, I think he’s a cool option to have to punish small lineups and he won’t usually kill you defensively. In the playoffs the defense is more of a problem, but I think you can still build a winning team with him on it if the money makes sense.

Deeefense: I have one problem with it. If we draft a raw player this week, the consensus will be that he’s bust if he’s not highly productive 2-3 years from now. Plus, there will be no willingness to pay him an extension even if he shows some development but is not worth the price given his productivity at that point. So if he does eventually develop, it will be for someone else. We would trade him for a future draft pick so we could do the same thing all over again. 🙂

Hmmm, i see where you’re going with this. You want us to give Frank a 5th year. 😉

Cybersoze,
We keep Frank and you get Queta. Deal?

DudeInKnicksTown:
Cybersoze,
We keep Frank and you get Queta. Deal?

Done! 😉

I have one problem with it. If we draft a raw player this week, the consensus will be that he’s bust if he’s not highly productive 2-3 years from now.

No, it will not. RJ wasn’t “highly productive” by any means this past year, and it’s somewhat unlikely he will be next year. People still almost unanimously think he’s a good prospect we should look to keep because he’s shown a lot of really good signs.

If, on the other hand, we draft a player who shows absolutely nothing despite a bevy of opportunities over a 4 year period, I will concede the consensus might turn against him.

thenoblefacehumper: No, it will not. RJ wasn’t “highly productive” by any means this past year, and it’s somewhat unlikely he will be next year. People still almost unanimously think he’s a good prospect we should look to keep because he’s shown a lot of really good signs.

If, on the other hand, we draft a player who shows absolutely nothing despite a bevy of opportunities over a 4 year period, I will concede the consensus might turn against him.

First, RJ was not really considered a raw player (like say Knox or Frank who you knew were going to take a long to me to develop into solid role players). His body was considered NBA ready. But even if you want to categorize him as a raw player there were a smattering of posts to trade him after his rookie year. lol

I’ve been high on RJ from the start and became more enthusiastic after he showed he wasn’t going to be a liability on defense in his rookie year. I’m expecting more progress next year. But if he doesn’t take a leap next year and it’s time to extend him we’ll see what people are saying then.

it’s also worth mentioning that with both adams and bledsoe gone… that chances of us signing Lonzo Ball has gone down.. i think we probably do need to go over 25mm on a bid.. which we may do… but i think and hope that the FO thinks it’s a bridge too far…

https://www.actionnetwork.com/nba/nba-free-agency-2021-draft-intel-ben-simmons-kyle-lowry-cade-cunningham

A lot of interesting stuff in here. Relevant to the Knicks:

Add two more serious suitors to the Lowry list: the Knicks and the Mavericks.

The Knicks are considering a one-year deal that would trump, the thinking goes, a multi-team offer in single-year salary. The Mavericks are thought to be pursuing a two-year deal for Lowry.

I love the idea of an absolutely enormous 1-year deal for Lowry. Allows us to take another step forward while maintaining all of our flexibility. I think we can give him something in the neighborhood of 1/$40M…I mean, sure, why not?

He’s always been one of my favorite players, but I’d be a little hesitant to give him multiple years. As far as core, expensive pieces go, I still think we should try to pursue players on the Barrett/Quickley/Randle timeline.

The consistent names for the Knicks at 19 and 21 are Jared Butler and Isaiah Jackson. … if the Knicks don’t package the picks together to move up

I’m a big Butler fan and think Jackson is reasonably promising, but I think spending a first-rounder on a rim-running rim protector type would be a waste. Give me Cam Thomas at 21 instead and take Bassey at 32. Now that’s a draft.

Cybersoze, Thanks for the pointer to the article. It was very good. One thing not commented on is that the authors tried to sort polished and raw groups just by using age and assuming that anyone over 22 was “polished”. They gave up on this idea because no one drafted at 22 or older had a significant NBA career worth analyzing. That doesn’t bode well for Obi. I quote:

For this section’s data, I flagged prospects with a draft age below 20 as raw, and prospects with a draft age above 22 as polished. This method leaves out players with an age in the middle, but let’s just see where it takes us. The players are taken from the 2008-2013 draft classes, and of course drafted between picks 13-30.

There were over 50 players in this set, so I’m not going to list them all, but after charting the old and young groups of prospects, I realized that there was a large discrepancy between the results here and the other methods employed in this piece. The “old” set had almost no real contributors (George Hill was the best of the bunch), compared to the “young” set containing multiple All-Stars in Jrue Holiday, Kawhi, and Giannis. It was such a massive outlier that I decided to throw this data out.

Butler, Jackson and Grimes in the second round would be a very nice draft

Not to beat the Mitchell debate to death but I actually don’t think his shooting is his biggest red flag. There are concerns but I could see it being a real improvement. My main concerns are his age and size. His size will prevent him from being anything other than a positional defender and give him a small margin of error to be a full-time starter, especially considering there is nothing in the stats that show him to be an elite athlete. His age is even more of a concern. For a player who is almost 23, he was not nearly dominant enough. Plus, players that wait until their senior or in this case redshirt junior year to become dominant are always a concern.

Toppin might have been older with red flags but at least he was legitimately dominant. Mitchell was merely good despite being older than most of the other players on the court.

Those are pretty large red flags even if the shooting is real, which is still a bit of a question mark.

If we get a good player in the second round like Grimes, or Donsunmo, or Springer, then I am okay with Jackson in the first. I just want to get at least one wing, one guard, and then either a backup center or another wing. As for trading up, the only player I would be okay with trading up for that could possibly be available in the teens is Sengun. He doesn’t fill a need but his skill level is truly elite especially for someone so young.

Ben R: My main concerns are his age and size. His size will prevent him from being anything other than a positional defender and give him a small margin of error to be a full-time starter, especially considering there is nothing in the stats that show him to be an elite athlete. His age is even more of a concern. For a player who is almost 23, he was not nearly dominant enough.

I dunno, when a guy is the best defensive player in the NCAA, that suggests to me that he is more than a positional defender. If you watch his scouting film, this myth about him being solely a point-of-attack defender is debunked. He is an excellent help defender on double-teams in the paint, weak side help and switches; what he lacks in size and length he makes up for in strength, tenacity, quickness and smarts. Mike Schmitz called him one of the best defensive players he’s ever scouted…and he’s scouted many hundreds of players over many years. When he makes 45% of his 3’s on 141 attempts and a significant proportion of those attempts are off the dribble, including step-backs in multiple directions, and he shoots 57% from 2 including consistently scoring at the rim with eather hand and an assortment of midrange pull-ups, when his shooting form is praised by multiple analysts, and when the improvement is significant in multiple areas, it mitigates the age and size issues somewhat, at least to me and to many professional scouts. His performance was pretty consistent all year, not streaky and all over the place. He shot over 40% from 3 in all 6 months of the season.

If his shot is not real, you’re probably looking at an Avery Bradley-level player…that would be a disappointment but certainly not a bust at #19. If his shot is for real, what’s his ceiling then? Not CP3 or Donovan Mitchell, but a damn good player.

So I’m assuming that some other team was willing to take Bledsoe for the #10, so the Grizzlies had to up the ante to take Adams (and gave back JV because obviously you can’t both Adams and JV on the same team).

Early Bird: Early Bird
July 26, 2021 at 11:24 pm
Z-man: When he makes 45% of his 3’s on 141 attempts

In the scheme of things that’s nothing. Mitchell would need to more than double his college career 3PA to even start to be a meaningful sample,3p% doesn’t stabilize until 750 shots. He’s likely not a good shooter.

That’s reasonable, but still, it’s not anywhere near an exact science. Since we’ll never get to 750 attempts before he is drafted, you might want to look his most recent sample dump and analyze it the best you can. That’s why I brought up the consistency of his shooting, and the variety of shots he attempted and consistently made. If you just conclude based on the numbers that “he’s likely not a good shooter” you’re going to pass over some really good players. This is different than “ignoring” it, I’m suggesting that you look deeply into it and get a sense of whether he gets a bit of a pass on the FT shooting.

Brian Cronin:
This Shai rumor has to be BS, right? Shai and the #6 for the #1? Why would OKC do that? And why would Detroit turn that down? So I think it is BS.

The next 3 days are gonna be rough.

Final Board which i’ll trickle out until the draft.. this time with some upside comp mixes to spice things up:

1. Jalen Suggs – John Wall/Derrick Rose/Mike Conley
2. Evan Mobley – Chris Bosh/Anthony Davis
3. Jalen Green – 120% version of Zach Lavine
4. Cade Cunningham – Steve Smith/Brandon Ingram
5. Alperen Sengun – Kevin Love/Pau Gasol

Suggs fits the profile of past #1 pg picks… not quite as explosive as Rose and Wall but more technically sound in the mold of Conley.. honestly if you added more control to Rose or Wall’s game early they would have probably been better off and it’ll be interesting to see how Suggs develops… If I was detroit i’d think long and hard about houston’s picks (#2, 23 and 24) + future picks considering how close all these guys in the top 4 are… Cade isn’t terrible but these other guys are pretty damn good too….

6. James Bouknight – Bradley Beal/Donovan Mitchell
7. Josh Christopher – Jordan Clarkson/Joe Johnson
8. Jalen Johnson – 75% version of Ben Simmons/90% of Lamar Odom/50% of Whiteside’s personality?
9. Scottie Barnes – Draymond Green/Andre Iguodala
10. Jonathan Kuminga – 25-80% of Kawhi Leonard

These rankings have been more or less static since February and it’s a bit validating to have the consensus eventually converge to these.. still mystified at how Christopher continues to get no respect but for whatever reason Cam Thomas is the elite scorer.. confusing.. Johnson is weird and it’s impossible to pin down some of the subjective factors surrounding him… based on the numbers a team should take a chance on him as he could be a unique PF piece but the weirdness could undermine his whole career… Kuminga will continue to be a mystery until we see nba action.. the floor here is quite ugly given that there’s an age component that might be unknown… the upside is reasonably high tho so you probably should rank him ahead of the guys who have lower upside like the names behind him…

djphan, reading this it seems like there just isn’t enough data because of injury to get teams excited about Christopher. But that seems like an opportunity (and risk of course) to take a stab at him with one of our picks.

Josh Christopher, 6-5 freshman guard, Arizona State. “I give him credit for playing at the combine. A lot of top guys didn’t. He’s got a motor, he competes, he’s a downhill attacker. He’s a little undersized at the wing. Didn’t play up to his expectations in college. He got hurt and then basically never played again. It’s not like he tore his ACL. He’s a big, strong kid. He’s not going to move the ball, he’s more of a score-first guy. Raw but competitive. He’s really talented. Early second round, I’d say.”

SGA is an RFA next year, OKC may legitimately not want to pay him and roll over into another rookie contract. The timing may just be bad for SGA.

If OKC is trying to recreate the confluence of talent they got with Harden, KD, & Russ… that’s a dogdamn moonshot. But I guess they have the picks to do it.

This Memphis trade (and potential trade up) makes me think Jarren Jackson Jr could be had in a trade. They have to be offering 10 and JJ Jr in any trade up, no? And Steven Adams isn’t exactly old at 28, either.

Brian, I think the OKC offer would be motivated thusly:

1)OKC is hardcore Processing, and while SGA is great, he’s about to get very expensive.
2)With Kemba as their only real contract, they can afford SGA’s rookie max extension, but that ownership group is cheap and I’m still not 100 percent sure that’s a viable market. They may have told Presti they’re fine spending money when the team is going to be good, but not til then.
3)Cade is a local star whom they believe would fire up the fan base, even if he’s probably a few years away from approaching what SGA can give you right now on the court.
4)There is allegedly a big dropoff in this draft after the top 4 picks, then perhaps another big one if you believe in only one of Barnes and Kuminga, but not both. They might not value the sixth pick on its own all that much, especially with all the others they have going forward.

SGA is the single guy who could potentially be available that nobody is off limits for. It would take too many teams to make it happen, but SGA to the Knicks would have to look like:

Julius Randle to GSW
Picks #3 and 7 and James Wiseman to OKC
Picks #6 and 14 to CLE
SGA and Andrew Wiggins to NYK

It makes sense for OKC because you’re resetting the rookie scale contract and likely picking up Jalen Suggs, and you still pick 7th overall. You also get last year’s #2 overall pick.

It makes sense for GSW because they’re in win-now mode, they need another star, and this move actually saves them >$10M. Getting an All NBA guy to add to your front court as Draymond Green gets older is a pretty sweet deal, I’d think.

It makes sense for CLE because, if Cade and Green are gone 1-2, they don’t need a center or point guard with Allen and Garland on the roster, so they trade out, still have a chance to grab Kuminga/Barnes/Moody at 6, and they pick up another pick at 14 for the trouble. They may even be able to extract a future 1 in the process.

It makes sense for the Knicks because duh. If the price you pay for a bona fide star player at age 23 is swallowing the Wiggins deal for 2 seasons (who may even be useful if horrendously overpaid), then you do it and worry about the rest later. We keep all of our draft capital and still have tons of cap room.

None of this would actually happen, but it goes to show that we may be leaving meat on the bone if we’re really not considering trading Julius Randle and just want to offer him max money.