Statistical Analysis. Humor. Knicks.

Thursday, October 23, 2014

On Andrea Bargnani, draft picks, and the importance of process

Basketball is a game of probabilities and uncertainty. If Raymond Felton takes a wide open layup, even if the shot rolls agonizingly off the rim,  we would recognize that — results notwithstanding — it was a good possession. Similarly, if Raymond Felton makes a shot with two men in his face, even if the ball drops, that’s nevertheless a bad possession. Regardless of the result, we know that if the Knicks create more offensive possessions like the first scenario, they will be in better shape.

This extends to the front office. Trades, drafting, and free agent signings are all imperfect sciences – no front office can ever make the right move every time. With this in mind, it is often more important not to judge the outcome of a move, but the process and thinking that went into that move.

Which brings us to the Andrea Bargnani trade. Because in this case, the process behind the trade is more distressing than the actual trade itself.

The proposed move, which will likely send Steve Novak, Marcus Camby, a 2016 1st round pick, two future 2nd round picks and a signed and traded spare part still to be determined – possibly Quentin Richardson – to Toronto for Bargnani, if nothing else provides great insight into how ownership thinks. It is yet another example of a front office that has proven to be reactive, shortsighted, and inexplicably scornful of the cheap and often productive labor that can be achieved through the draft. To illustrate these points, let’s introduce two general process rules:

General Process Rule #1: Making a move because another team makes a move is bad process.

The proposed trade is reminiscent of the Yankees-Red Sox front office arms races in the mid-2000s, culminating in the New York front office signing the immortal Kei Igawa to a five-year contract.

It is pretty clear that the Bargnani move is a grasping-for-straws, desperate attempt to one-up the crosstown rival Brooklyn Nets, who improved (and joined the Knicks in the NBA AARP/”First round picks? We don’t need no stinkin’ first round picks!” Club) by trading for Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce.

The Nets, frankly, have nothing to do with how the Knicks front office should operate. Building an NBA team is extremely difficult, and making moves to “keep up” with supposed contenders breeds desperation and fear. Sports, and human behavior in general, is just too difficult to predict for that. More on this in a bit.

General Process Rule #2: Unless you are truly one piece away from a championship team, don’t trade first-round picks for bench players:

Particularly injury-prone, defensively-challenged, poor-rebounding bench players who have long been accused of showing poor effort.

Some defenders of the trade have said that a late first-round pick and two second-rounders is a small price to pay for a title contender looking to get better. After all, this team is in “win-now mode.” Unfortunately, there are three major problems with this.

For starters, this first-round pick is in 2016. The Knicks have zero players definitively under contract for 2015-2016. Winning 54 games in the 2012-2013 regular season means absolutely nothing about how good the Knicks will be in 2016. This pick is just as likely to be in the lottery as it is in the late-first round.

What’s more, this team is not a title contender, and there is no evidence that Bargnani will make them one. Just because this rant is getting a bit wordy, I’ll let others pick apart Bargnani’s game, but just know that he has played 66 games in the past two seasons, plays little-to-no defense, rebounds very poorly for his position, and doesn’t shoot threes consistently enough to stretch the defense. (He also doesn’t shoot threes better than Steve Novak, perhaps the world’s best three-point shooter. Novak has unfairly gotten very little attention in the discussion of this trade, just as he unfairly got little attention this year from Coach Mike Woodson. Alas.)

Adding an inconsequential piece does not make the Knicks title contenders. To argue that the Knicks are genuinely competing for an NBA championship is laughable, with the Bulls presumably adding Derrick Rose, the Pacers getting a year older, the Nets retooling, and, oh yeah, the Heat returning as two-time defending champions armed with the greatest player since Michael Jordan. This team is far from a title contender, and mortgaging more of the future for this illusion of a present title chance has been this front office’s delusional process for over a decade.

And it is a terrible shame to recklessly dangle draft picks in a salary cap system that rewards rookie contracts. The NBA salary cap is extremely restrictive, yet the Knicks have routinely declined to keep their draft picks and reap the benefits of young players on team-friendly contracts. As I’ve written before, NBA teams competing for scarce resources in a harsh financial environment need to find unexpected value and bargains to compete at an elite level. The draft is the perfect place to get a leg up. And on Sunday, the Knicks again chose to disregard the value of the draft, something the team has done for the last decade.

People who like the trade have pointed out that draft picks don’t always work out. This is undeniably true. It is also partially my point. Draft picks, just like everything else in basketball, are calculated risks. It is very possible that the Knicks would have made a poor selection with that 2016 pick, and with those two second-rounders as well. But a team that has a rational process, that thinks about basketball and business decisions in terms of calculated risk, knows that those picks are valuable and not expendable appendages to be thrown about at will. A rational front office with a more coherent philosophy knows better.

Ultimately, this trade might not mean very much. Those picks might prove to be valuable, or they might not. Camby and Novak both have poor contracts, and neither is better than an 8th man or so. This trade is no blockbuster, and the results might be relatively inconsequential.

But this trade is distressing primarily because of the process and the philosophy that informed it, a philosophy guided by delusions of title-winning grandeur and big names, an offensive lack of patience in roster-building, and an obvious deficiency in understanding how to maximize value in the 21st century NBA.

Like all things in basketball, we don’t know exactly how this trade will work out. But, like an off-balance, fadeaway 20-footer from Felton that makes us yelp, “Nooooo!” the fact that it happened at all is the problem.

243 comments on “On Andrea Bargnani, draft picks, and the importance of process

  1. Vinny L.

    For a big man, I was hoping the Knicks would go after someone tough who could clean up the glass and play some D: Tyler Hansbrough….. But we got Bargnani :/

    For a PG, I was looking for something more younger, and more dangerous/threatening offensively than Jason Kidd and Prig: Nate Robinson, Will Bynum, or Darren Collison…. Knicks offer Prig contract :/

    In the draft, I was looking for Knicks to pick up a tough wing, possibly Hardaway or Rice– who could possibly replace JR or Cope… But if a player projected to go earlier than 24 falls in our lap, take em!…. Knicks pass on Jamaal Franklin SG/SF (and Rudy Gobert C) :/

      

  2. Vinny L.

    People who like this deal are saying that the Knicks got rid of 2 bad contract (Camby, Novak) for 1 bad contract that expires a year earlier than Camby and Novak’s contracts…

    They’re also saying Bargnani would be good defensively, playing with Tyson. And he would be good offensively because other teams are going to be focused on Melo.

    Any thoughts?

  3. mase

    he is a good player, is he worth $11m probably not but we didnt give up anything for him besides picks a few years away that take years to develop9in turth its really hard to develop picks in Ny, there is too much pressure on GM’s to win now)…IMO we just ushered out dead weight(novak, camby) into a young,talented PF in his prime…bottom line is he can consistently knock down big shots from the outside and we have a glaring need for that from a big…amare cannot do that, cope showed flashes, tyson cant do that, Kurt is retired, Sheed is retired…grunnie , excellent move!

  4. DCrockett17

    Bending over backwards to give the FO benefit of the doubt, the big problems are:

    1. The picks – no way NY should have needed to throw in picks to get Bargnani. That’s ccepting the logic of the trade (a gamble on an injured talent and some future financial flexibility).

    2. The gamble – Bargnani addresses an almost hyper-specific need. Novak is almost useless (in theory) against good defenses because he doesn’t run well off screens and he cannot put the ball on the floor at all. The problem is that Bargnani is not in the same league as a perimeter shooter as Novak. The Knicks have createdtwo problems to solve one

  5. steveoh

    I understand the benefits of trading for Barg’s shorter contract by sending out who Woody has deemed to be two expendable pieces. He didn’t comprehend Camby or Novak. They were pointless assets (although Novak’s spacing on offense will be a huge loss, IMHO). I do think Barg’s be effective as a three – but only when he’s playing alongside Chandler.

    However, I don’t like adding a soft player who doesn’t rebound or defend. I don’t think he can play as a center alongside Melo or Amare. I don’t think he’s someone who can compete in that Finals we just witnessed. And I can’t believe we had to give up a first round pick for someone they were practically giving away.

  6. cgreene

    I am a daily reader and occasional poster here. Regardless of whether you like this trade or not (personally I would not have done it but certainly don’t think the sky is falling because of it…) the idea that the Knicks did this trade because the Nets did a trade a preposterous. Let’s keep the NYPost / Bleacher Report level gossip speculation off these pages. There is no proof of that whatsoever. What do you think happened Dolan called GG and told him “Do something. Anything. I want to be on the back page tomorrow. I don’t care what it is!!” Give me a freakin break. And your 2nd pt of you don’t trade a draft pick for a bench player is also not thought through at all. Doesn’t it depend on which pick for which player?? The funny thing about trades is they take time to figure out whether they were good or not. We didn’t trade Shumpert or Tyson or Melo for this guy. Rant over.

  7. Frank

    Jonathan – thanks for writing the piece. but even though I don’t like the trade, I wholeheartedly disagree with both your points.

    #1 – I think this has NOTHING to do with Nets moves. The reason it happened in such proximity is because of the 6/30 deadline. Even the worst PR person in the world couldn’t think that getting Bargnani will in any way take positive attention away from Brooklyn getting 2 HOFers. in fact, I think it’s almost definitely true that the Knicks FO knew they were going to get panned for this– or at the very least, would be a lukewarm response.

    #2 – first of all, we have no idea what protections there are on this pick. No idea. Second, this pick is the worse of the NYK/DEN pick, making it even less likely it’ll be a lottery pick. So in fact, it is MUCH more likely to be a late first round pick than a lottery pick.

    #3 – if you’re going to talk about Process, you have to look at it from both perspectives – not just the one that makes your point look better. It is undeniably true that Bargnani is a bad rebounder and an indifferent defender (although Synergy and the Goldsberry data from last year suggest that he might actually be a good defender). It’s undeniably true that he had 2 really crappy years the last 2 years.

    But it’s also undeniably true that he was injured during both these years. Last year was his shooting elbow. I can’t imagine what effect that might have on someone’s shooting percentage? The year before was his calf. Last time I checked, you need calves to jump, and you need jumping to shoot a jumpshot.

    It’s also undeniably true that was his USG was 22, he was a much better player than when his USG was 28. When Bosh was THE MAN and Bargnani played off him, he was a flat-out better player. And on this team, they’ll be like four THE MANs other than him. So that can only help.

    continued…

  8. chrisk06811

    I think that is true on his offense. I think the wildcard is his health. If healthy, he is a poor man’s detlef schrempf. that’s not so bad. Last year, outside of melo, we were screwed offensively if JR wasn’t hitting shots; and many of those that he hit were forced. Shump didn’t find his O until the playoffs. Kidd / Priggs / Chandler averaged 78 mins / game, and only 14 shots per game between them. Melo led the league in scoring because he had to. Here’s a guy who is a proven scorer, when healthy.

  9. cgreene

    And for those of you out there lamenting the potential loss or replacement of Cope and picking stats to prove your point instead of looking at the whole picture here you go:

    For their respective careers:
    Copeland has shot 140 3’s and made 42%
    Bargnani has shot 1600 3’s and made 36%

    Who has the more reliable statistical history?

  10. Frank

    Now I AM against the trade, yes, because of process. This is a guy that Toronto should have had to pay another team to take away — instead, we gave 3 draft picks like we were trading for a hot commodity. Yes, Novak’s contract is an (small) albatross. But I sort off feel like we could’ve gotten rid of Novak without selling a draft pick. But maybe not.

    I still have some hope this will work out. As a 3rd option, Bargnani could be really good.

    Another angle on this is that even wherever Cope signs, it’ll likely be on a full mini-MLE ie. 3 year contract — which if on our team would bite into our 15-16 cap room. And maybe we are really going for the full reset that year with Melo hopefully on a sub-max contract (say $18M/year) and Shump/Felton/Hardaway totaling another $9M or so. If the cap is $65MM that year (just guessing), that would mean we would have $38MM in cap space. At a cap# of $65MM, the max contract would be somewhere between 16.25-19.5MM depending on how many years the player has played. Feels like 2 max contracts to me.

  11. Z

    cgreene:
    .There is no proof of that whatsoever.What do you think happened Dolan called GG and told him “Do something.Anything.I want to be on the back page tomorrow.I don’t care what it is!!”

    Yeah, the evidence I’ve seen over the past 15 years is that Dolan doesn’t give a shit about headlines. He alienated every member of the press corps with his media blackouts, he went to trial with Anuucha Saunders instead of settling out of court, he let folk-hero Lin walk for nothing because he suddenly didn’t want to pay taxes, he continues to try to hire Isiah Thomas every summer… This guy doesn’t give a shit about the press, he doesn’t give a shit about the fans. He is is own man!

    So at least on that charge, he is cleared.

    Dolan actually thinks this is a good basketball move, which shows “good process”, and maybe it is. But he thought the same thing about Stephon Marbury, Eddy Curry, Shandon Anderson, Steve Francis, Jalen Rose, and Zach Randolph, so that process hasn’t really gotten him too far, either…

  12. Caleb

    This trade probably won’t make a whole lot of difference for the Knicks one way or the other. Like Jonathan says, it’s mainly instructive as a window into how Knicks’ ownership thinks. If they didn’t trade away the first round pick in this deal, does anyone think they wouldn’t trade it tomorrow? Or the next year.

    The Knicks are going nowhere special as long as JD is in charge. Free the Knicks! At least, flail away on our futile Facebook page, https://www.facebook.com/pages/Occupy-MSG-Remove-Dolan-From-Power/296419610370327

  13. The Honorable Cock Jowles

    “People who like the trade have pointed out that draft picks don’t always work out. This is undeniably true. It is also partially my point. Draft picks, just like everything else in basketball, are calculated risks. It is very possible that the Knicks would have made a poor selection with that 2016 pick, and with those two second-rounders as well. But a team that has a rational process, that thinks about basketball and business decisions in terms of calculated risk, knows that those picks are valuable and not expendable appendages to be thrown about at will. A rational front office with a more coherent philosophy knows better.”

    Holy shit. How long have I been saying this?

  14. The Honorable Cock Jowles

    Z: Yeah, the evidence I’ve seen over the past 15 years is that Dolan doesn’t give a shit about headlines. He alienated every member of the press corps with his media blackouts, he went to trial with Anuucha Saunders instead of settling out of court, he let folk-hero Lin walk for nothing because he suddenly didn’t want to pay taxes, he continues to try to hire Isiah Thomas every summer… This guy doesn’t give a shit about the press, he doesn’t give a shit about the fans. He is is own man!

    Exactly. Proof? No. Dolan did not come right out and say it.

    A strong claim supported by evidence? Absolutely.

  15. Frank

    The Honorable Cock Jowles: But a team that has a rational process, that thinks about basketball and business decisions in terms of calculated risk, knows that those picks are valuable and not expendable appendages to be thrown about at will. A rational front office with a more coherent philosophy knows better.”

    I agree completely with this — the only mitigating circumstance is that this is highly likely to be a late pick. And we don’t know if/what the protection is. And overall the cost of this deal was just way too much. Bargnani the player I’m fine with. Getting rid of Novak and Camby I’m fine with. If it were just a 1st round pick I’d be semi-ok with that. But more draft picks than that just feels like piling on.

  16. Zanzibar

    There’s one element nobody’s mentioned. Wouldn’t Camby’s 4m+ contract (effectively expiring) be a potentially valuable trade chip at this season’s trade deadline? Maybe Camby is able to contribute next season and, if not, we might be able to move him for a 5m+ player at the deadline when we will have knowledge of our needs heading into the playoffs. A key part of this trade is to provide greater flexibility in 2015 but it seems like we may be sacrificing some near-term flexibility. Note: I’m neutral on the deal, still tryin’ to sort through it all.

  17. massive

    So we are interested in Jose Calderon. Maybe this trade was one big ploy to get Bargs to convince Calderon to sign here for the taxpayer’s MLE? I don’t know; Boris Diaw was a waste of space on the Bobcats and Gregg Poppovich basically said “this guy has talent and I’m going to turn it into production.” Avery Johnson did the same with Andray Blatche. Hollins did it with Z Bo. Van Gundy with Turkoglu. I think the same is possible with Bargs. I sure hope we gambled correctly. Bargs is horrific.

  18. JK47

    What really irks me is the opportunity cost. That first rounder could have come in handy down the road, as an asset to acquire something of actual value. But we’ll never know, because it’s always short term thinking with this team.

    Each individual move the team makes tends to make some sort of perverted sense, but when you take them all in concert it leads you a place where the Knicks are now: bumping their heads against a firm ceiling, with no flexibility and no chance to improve until they blow the whole thing up and start again in 2015. We had our shot last year and got eliminated in the second round, and now it really feels like we are in lame duck mode for the next two seasons.

  19. iserp

    Maybe it is an overreaction to the Indiana series. How would that series looked with Bargnani instead of Chandler? Not sure if better or worse, but totally different. Bargnani has the ability to draw Hibbert out of the paint. Not sure how things in the other end would look… Bargnani does very little against penetration.

  20. Hubert

    “It is pretty clear that the Bargnani move is a grasping-for-straws, desperate attempt to one-up the crosstown rival Brooklyn Nets.”

    Why?

    Because they happened in the same weekend? About 75% of all offseason moves are going to occur in this 10 day window that started Thursday. Are they all going to be desperate attempts to one-up each other?

    You’re the one “grasping for straws” trying to connect the two moves.

    Sorry to go off on you, I know you’ve heard the same theory on ESPN and read it in Howard Beck. But I can’t stand the notion that we would actually damage our future to keep up with local “rivals”. We damage our future because we have bad judgment and don’t appreciate the value of our assets!

    By the way, Brooklyn is the team that grasped for straws in a desperate attempt to on one up their cross town rival. That trade was terrible and could ruin the franchise. FOUR unprotected picks (they gave up the rights to swap in 2017, as well, something that has been underreported) for two guys that should have retired already!?!? Even Isiah cringed when he heard that.

  21. DCrockett17

    cgreene:
    And for those of you out there lamenting the potential loss or replacement of Cope and picking stats to prove your point instead of looking at the whole picture here you go:

    For their respective careers:
    Copeland has shot 140 3?s and made 42%
    Bargnani has shot 1600 3?s and made 36%

    Who has the more reliable statistical history?

    Those numbers certainly don’t *negate* someone claiming that Cope is the more valuable player. Estimating Bargnani’s future 3pt shooting becomes problematic because he has been injured. Much like a pitcher who has shoulder problems and starts to muck with his mechanics, injuries often lead to bad mechanics that lead to other injuries. We can’t just project from past performance as if all things are equal.

    It’s one thing to get Bargnani. It’s another to pay a premium for him. The Raps were in the quintessential sell low position. Bargnani was rumored to be under amnesty consideration. The Knicks paid an awfully high premium. Low picks or not, why offer much of anything in draft pick assets?

  22. Spree8nyk8

    So do we know the exact specifications of this trade. I’ve read that we gave up 1 pick 2 picks and 3 picks. What is the actual story?

  23. mase

    what is the obsession with draft picks?
    how many of our picks over the past 10 years actually panned out ?
    how many are as productive a Ab?

  24. Spree8nyk8

    mase:
    what is the obsession with draft picks?
    how many of our picks over the past 10 years actually panned out ?
    how many are as productive a Ab?

    well aldridge and noah were chosen with picks that we gave up so I’m guessing more than a few.

  25. JK47

    mase:
    what is the obsession with draft picks?
    how many of our picks over the past 10 years actually panned out ?
    how many are as productive a Ab?

    Lee, Gallinari, Wilson Chandler and Shumpert, for starters, all became god players. Nate Robinson. Landry Fields was a valuable asset for a while. Trevor Ariza.

    And that’s not even taking into account the fact that the Knicks trade away their picks every chance they get, so some years we didn’t even have a pick.

  26. EB

    Hubert:
    “It is pretty clear that the Bargnani move is a grasping-for-straws, desperate attempt to one-up the crosstown rival Brooklyn Nets.”

    Why?

    Because they happened in the same weekend?About 75% of all offseason moves are going to occur in this 10 day window that started Thursday.Are they all going to be desperate attempts to one-up each other?

    You’re the one “grasping for straws” trying to connect the two moves.

    Sorry to go off on you, I know you’ve heard the same theory on ESPN and read it in Howard Beck.But I can’t stand the notion that we would actually damage our future to keep up with local “rivals”.We damage our future because we have bad judgment and don’t appreciate the value of our assets!

    By the way, Brooklyn is the team that grasped for straws in a desperate attempt to on one up their cross town rival.That trade was terrible and could ruin the franchise.FOUR unprotected picks (they gave up the rights to swap in 2017, as well, something that has been underreported) for two guys that should have retired already!?!? Even Isiah cringed when he heard that.

    I agree with Hubert. You make quite a few attributions to the Knicks’ process that we just don’t know about. No I don’t like the trade but pretending that YOU know their process is ridiculous.

  27. Hubert

    Wait. This part bothered me even more:

    “To argue that the Knicks are genuinely competing for an NBA championship is laughable, with the Bulls presumably adding Derrick Rose, the Pacers getting a year older, the Nets retooling, and, oh yeah, the Heat returning as two-time defending champions armed with the greatest player since Michael Jordan. This team is far from a title contender, and mortgaging more of the future for this illusion of a present title chance has been this front office’s delusional process for over a decade.”

    1. We mortgaged the future?

    2.So, what should we do, not try? Trade everyone for draft picks?

    The arguments put forth by the mainstream media, which you seem to just be echoing, are absurd and they offend me. The idea seems to be that because we lost a tough series to the Pacers, that means we can NEVER BEAT THEM. As if no team has ever been beaten by a team one year and come back to beat them the following year. Knicks-Pacers was a god damn coin toss. Don’t tell me we can’t beat those guys.

    Oh but Derrick Rose is back. Derrick Rose who has won nothing in his career except an MVP award that was handed to him out of spite. Derrick Rose whose coach runs his players into the ground EVERY. SINGLE. YEAR. We should not try because maybe this is finally the year they’re not all nursing injuries come May.

    Oh but the Nets are retooling. L. O. F’n. L.

    And now the Heat are invincible? They looked pretty vincible against Indiana. They looked pretty vincible when the god damn ropes were out to give the championship trophy to another team.

    What a joke. We have a very good basketball team. Do I like giving up a #1 pick in 2016? Hell no. But don’t give me this shit that this team isn’t worth investing in. I fucking loved this team last year. That was the most fun I had watching the Knicks in 13 years. Glen Grunwald has been pulling rabbits out of hats. Give him a chance.

    And give me a break with shit…

  28. Spree8nyk8

    @TheRealJRSmith: Might walk down the beach today!”
    @SAT_SIT: I hope a shark leaves its habitat to eat you alive
    @TheRealJRSmith Now thats just crazy!
    JR Smith @TheRealJRSmith 5m

    LMFAO this dude really just told me he hopes a shark gets out the water just to eat me! LMFAO ????????????????????????????

  29. Die_Hard_Knick_Fan

    Dolan actually thinks this is a good basketball move, which shows “good process”, and maybe it is. But he thought the same thing about Stephon Marbury, Eddy Curry, Shandon Anderson, Steve Francis, Jalen Rose, and Zach Randolph, so that process hasn’t really gotten him too far, either…

    Don’t forget about Jerome James.

    I don’t mind this trade if Bargnani can stay healthy. I think that he will help to space the floor. No one expected Novak to move much once he got the ball so the defense never had to worry about leaving their man to help out. Bargnani isn’t the most athletic but the defense will still have to respect his game more than Novak’s which should help to open someone up and get the defense to move out of place.

  30. JK47

    mase:
    ive seen him torch the nicks everytime , yes ive seen him play

    Have you ever seen him play when Amar’e Stoudemire isn’t “guarding” him?

  31. DCrockett17

    The one area I’ll give the Walsh/Grunwald FO credit is in the improved international scouting. Effectively, that means that the pool of vet minimum players is bigger for NY than for some other teams.
    ***

    For the record, I don’t like the Bargnani *deal* because we paid a premium when we didn’t have to. Bargnani the player doesn’t make me cringe. If San Antonio got him for cheap (since they’d never overpay) we’d all recognize the skill set. For all the talk of how bad a rebounder he is, it’s because he’s an abysmal offensive rebounder. Not surprising as he’s almost exclusively a jump shooter. But defensively, he’s a better rebounder than Novak and Melo. He’s not gonna make all-NBA defense but people are pushing him out of the way to get offensive boards either.

  32. JK47

    Unfortunately Bargnani can’t play against the Knicks anymore, so there goes half of his production.

  33. EB

    JK47: Have you ever seen him play when Amar’e Stoudemire isn’t “guarding” him?

    Yeah I watched one of his highlight videos, about half of them came against the knicks or against Stat when he was on the Suns.

  34. Hubert

    By the way, Jonathan, I don’t mean to go off on you. It was a good article and I agree with the premise that process is important and it is a fact that the Knicks do not value #1 picks properly. I happen to think Bargnani will do well for us next year, but I am not happy we gave up a #1 pick in the process.

    You just happen to be echoing statements I’ve heard repeatedly that are infuriating me.

    This is still going to be a good team next year. I happen to think we’re going to be even better, assuming we bring JR & Pablo back in the fold (and either re-sign or replace Martin).

  35. Webjai

    If he can do to other teams what he’s done to us the last few years, I’m good with the move.

  36. Jonathan Topaz Post author

    Hubert, you said this: “We have a very good basketball team. Do I like giving up a #1 pick in 2016? Hell no. But don’t give me this shit that this team isn’t worth investing in.”

    I generally agree. We just seem to differ on what it means to make productive investments in this team. I have yet to see any statistical evidence that Bargnani would be a productive investment towards a championship team. In my opinion, the better way to invest is to keep first round draft picks (and two seconds and an other-worldly shooter, fwiw) unless you are getting a starter or true impact player in return.

    The greater point here, of course, is that the front office has decided that a more sustainable way to invest in this team is by adding a marginal player in favor of three draft picks. To me, that philosophy is troubling.

  37. thenamestsam

    mase:
    ive seen him torch the nicks everytime , yes ive seen him play

    Revealed: mase is Silverman’s alter ego. The “Nicks” gave it away.

  38. mase

    Anyone who thinks the Knicks are dumping long term overpaid crap like Novak and camby for A player like AB without throwing in picks is nuts!

  39. JK47

    mase:
    Anyone who thinks the Knicks are dumping long term overpaid crap like Novak and camby for A player like AB without throwing in picks is nuts!

    Hahaha, as if Andrea Bargnani isn’t the living, breathing definition of the words “overpaid crap.”

  40. mase

    he is the knicks second best scorer right now and we gave nothing away other than a first

  41. JK47

    mase:
    he is the knicks second best scorer right now and we gave nothing away other than a first

    Oh, I forgot, points per game is the most important stat in basketball. Never mind that pathetic-for-a-big-man .535 career TS% or that horrific .444 eFG% he had last season.

    I bet you have no idea what I’m even talking about.

  42. mase

    interesting, you quote numbers from a bad injury plagued year instead of career stats

  43. nyk8806

    mase: he is the knicks second best scorer right now

    God that would be so depressing, if it were true. Luckily he is a defensive superstar and will make up for it on the other end of the court.

  44. Nick C.

    What exactly can Bargnani do better than Amare other than shoot a lot of 3s at a league average rate or below. I’m not even sure Bargnani is an upgrade over Novak. This hucking away draft picks and “re-booting”, was OK when it was Crawford and Zach and Isaiah’s flotsam. This will be about the third or fourth since than and it’s somewhere between pathetic and old.

  45. er

    Nick C.:
    What exactly can Bargnani do better than Amare other than shoot a lot of 3s at a league average rate or below. I’m not even sure Bargnani is an upgrade over Novak. This hucking away draft picks and “re-booting”, was OK when it was Crawford and Zach and Isaiah’s flotsam. This will be about the third or fourth since than and it’s somewhere between pathetic and old.

    Barf is a HUGE upgrade over Novak. Thats not even a question, he is a seven footer who plays good post d and he can put the ball on the floor.

  46. JK47

    mase:
    interesting, you quote numbers from a bad injury plagued year instead of career stats

    His career stats suck too. Career WS48 of .059. His similarity scores list is populated by such legends Danny Vranes, Derek Strong and Kenny “Sky” Walker, and those are the most recognizable names.

    He’s got great intangibles, though. You have to love that “I do things that are more complicated than defense and rebounding” attitude.

  47. mase

    amare cant do anything apparently without the offense focused on getting him the ball which will never happen as long a melo is a knick so he is a waste of space and lots of money… novac is the savior the knicks hoped for, much better than Ab except when teams found out he was a one trick pony and completely shut him down.

  48. Hubert

    Jonathan Topaz:
    Hubert, you said this: “We have a very good basketball team. Do I like giving up a #1 pick in 2016? Hell no. But don’t give me this shit that this team isn’t worth investing in.”

    I generally agree. We just seem to differ on what it means to make productive investments in this team. I have yet to see any statistical evidence that Bargnani would be a productive investment towards a championship team. In my opinion, the better way to invest is to keep first round draft picks (and two seconds and an other-worldly shooter, fwiw) unless you are getting a starter or true impact player in return.

    The greater point here, of course, is that the front office has decided that a more sustainable way to invest in this team is by adding a marginal player in favor of three draft picks. To me, that philosophy is troubling.

    The philosophy sucks, yes. I was on hear the other day bitching about why we threw the Greek guy into the Felton trade last year. We throw picks in seemingly without need all the time and I hate it.

    I think you’re overstating it with three draft picks, though. From what I understand, one is OKC’s next year (most likely one of the last 3 picks in the draft) and the other is that silly Sacramento pick that’s protected unless it’s one of the last 5 picks in the drafts, so it’s largely worthless.

    On the bright side:

    WE DIDN’T WASTE OUR CASH CONSIDERATIONS!!!!!!

    So, there’s that. It’s a baby step.

    (We didn’t give up our cash considerations, right? We still have our $3mm?)

  49. thenamestsam

    er: Barf is a HUGE upgrade over Novak. Thats not even a question, he is a seven footer who plays good post d and he can put the ball on the floor.

    Those are the things Barf does better than Novak, but a fair comparison also looks at the things he does worse. Novak is one of the best 3-pt shooters in the league. Bargnani has been extremely poor the last two years, which is pretty important, because the role they’re bringing him here for is to stretch the floor. If he can’t shoot a decent percent on 3s it isn’t going to matter how his post defense (the most worthless skill in the current NBA) is.

    He’s certainly more talented than Novak. His best years are much better than what Novak has ever been capable of. But there is nothing in his play from last year to suggest he is even a moderate upgrade over Novak, let alone a huge one. He will have to recapture old form to make your statement true.

  50. JK47

    mase:
    amare cant do anything apparently without the offense focused on getting him the ball which will never happen as long a melo is a knick so he is a waste of space and lots of money… novac is the savior the knicks hoped for, much better than Ab except when teams found out he was a one trick pony and completely shut him down.

    I know, Amare’s dominating low post game that he unveiled last year, the one that used to rack up a .637 TS%, was totally useless to the team.

  51. er

    thenamestsam: Those are the things Barf does better than Novak, but a fair comparison also looks at the things he does worse. Novak is one of the best 3-pt shooters in the league. Bargnani has been extremely poor the last two years, which is pretty important, because the role they’re bringing him here for is to stretch the floor. If he can’t shoot a decent percent on 3s it isn’t going to matter how his post defense (the most worthless skill in the current NBA) is.

    He’s certainly more talented than Novak. His best years are much better than what Novak has ever been capable of. But there is nothing in his play from last year to suggest he is even a moderate upgrade over Novak, let alone a huge one. He will have to recapture old form to make your statement true.

    Very true, but lest we forget that two years ago was that wierd lockout season and then this year was another injury plagued mess. If he reverts a little to his 19.5 ppg year on 40% from 3. The knicks got a good deal

  52. mase

    “I know, Amare’s dominating low post game that he unveiled last year, the one that used to rack up a .637 TS%, was totally useless to the team.”

    dominating?
    you must be kidding me, when he wasnt injured he was “dominating” turnovers with his bad hands and disrupting the flow of the offense which is why he never got off the bench in the playoffs despite being able to play

  53. Garson

    Im looking forward to not hearing the “we didnt have a full training camp with our roster” stupidity that we were drowned in the past couple of seasons.

  54. EB

    er: Barf is a HUGE upgrade over Novak. Thats not even a question, he is a seven footer who plays good post d and he can put the ball on the floor.

    Didn’t Novak also grade out as like a top 5 isolation defender according to Synergy or something ridiculous?

  55. Count de Pennies

    “It is pretty clear that the Bargnani move is a grasping-for-straws, desperate attempt to one-up the crosstown rival Brooklyn Nets”

    On a blog in which comments are routinely disparaged as “conjecture,” seeing this put forth by one of its authors is more than a little ironic.

    The idea that this some “desperate attempt to one-up [a] crosstown rival” is certainly one possible explanation for the move… but it is hardly one that is “pretty clear.”

    I don’t like the Bargnani move because I don’t like Bargnani. My fondness for seven-footers who can’t rebound is even less than it is for shoot-first point guards who can’t shoot. You want to call the deal a dubious proposition from a basketball/team building standpoint and I’d wholeheartedly agree. But the idea that it’s some patently obvious grab for headlines on the part of an owner who has no history of giving a shit what the fans or media think about how he “operates” his basketball team is more wild-eyed conspiracy theory than anything in the way of plausible conjecture.

  56. EB

    mase:
    “I know, Amare’s dominating low post game that he unveiled last year, the one that used to rack up a .637 TS%, was totally useless to the team.”

    dominating?
    you must be kidding me, when he wasnt injured he was “dominating” turnovers with his bad hands and disrupting the flow of the offense which is why he never got off the bench in the playoffs despite being able to play

    Troll is trolling.

  57. Keniman Shumpwalker

    mase:
    “I know, Amare’s dominating low post game that he unveiled last year, the one that used to rack up a .637 TS%, was totally useless to the team.”

    dominating?
    you must be kidding me, when he wasnt injured he was “dominating” turnovers with his bad hands and disrupting the flow of the offense which is why he never got off the bench in the playoffs despite being able to play

    Troll or teenager?

  58. Hubert

    About the actual player, here’s why I like him:

    He can effectively back up Melo and he can effectively back up Amar’e. That’s what he’s going to be. Our 7th man, backing up our two stars. I think he’ll work out just fine in that capacity.

    If we can get Martin back in the fold (or replace him with someone as good), we’ll have two capable backup bigs and our front court rotation is set. (Until it isn’t.)

    Chris Copeland wasn’t going to back those two guys up all season. Our coach doesn’t trust him. Plus I doubt we can keep him.

    If our 9 man rotation next year looks like this:

    F Stoudemire (Bargnani)
    F Anthony (Bargnani)
    C Chandler (Martin)
    G Felton (Prigioni)
    G Shumpert (Smith)

    I think we’re a better team than we were last year.

    In fact, looking at that makes me think we can withstand losing JR Smith. I’m kind of bitter the Nets are getting Korver. I like him

  59. mase

    right!?!
    so which players would you geniuses experts put around Melo to win?
    im curious… wade, lebron, durant…guess what those guys arent available

  60. er

    EB: Didn’t Novak also grade out as like a top 5 isolation defender according to Synergy or something ridiculous?

    http://blogs.thescore.com/raptorblog/2012/08/18/on-bargnanis-impressive-defensive-numbers/

    ill repost …..”What Moore found in stats provided by Synergy Sports is that Andrea ranked in the 88th percentile in post defence, the 56th percentile in isolation defence and a mind blowing rank in the 95th percentile in overall man-to-man defence this past season.”

  61. Keniman Shumpwalker

    mase:
    right!?!
    so which players would you geniuses experts put around Melo to win?
    im curious… wade, lebron, durant…guess what those guysarent available

    I’m going with teenager.

  62. Keniman Shumpwalker

    mase:
    teenager, right!
    your an isiah fan

    OMG. Totes amazeballs. U r sooo rite. I am totes an isiah fan. Isiah is wassup. Heez almost as good as Scott Layden!!! TTYL.

  63. EB

    ” And those Synergy loggers have found 209 plays this season where in their view Novak’s defense was on display. These fall into set categories. Every play is a spot-up, pick-and-roll, isolation, post-up, “off screen,” or hand off. And what you can see for yourself is that opponents scored a measly 158 points on those 209 plays. I think we can agree that’s an excellent rate — in 209 plays against other NBA defenders, you’d expect many more points. ”

    http://espn.go.com/blog/truehoop/post/_/id/53195/the-defense-of-a-shooter

    er: http://blogs.thescore.com/raptorblog/2012/08/18/on-bargnanis-impressive-defensive-numbers/

    ill repost …..”What Moore found in stats provided by Synergy Sports is that Andrea ranked in the 88th percentile in post defence, the 56th percentile in isolation defence and a mind blowing rank in the 95th percentile in overall man-to-man defence this past season.”

  64. er

    EB:
    ” And those Synergy loggers have found 209 plays this season where in their view Novak’s defense was on display. These fall into set categories. Every play is a spot-up, pick-and-roll, isolation, post-up, “off screen,” or hand off. And what you can see for yourself is that opponents scored a measly 158 points on those 209 plays. I think we can agree that’s an excellent rate — in 209 plays against other NBA defenders, you’d expect many more points. ”

    http://espn.go.com/blog/truehoop/post/_/id/53195/the-defense-of-a-shooter

    You know you are making Barg look better right. If the coaches had that kind of impact on Novak, its possible with a better athlete like Barf

  65. thenamestsam

    er,

    Synergy defensive stats are interesting, but in my opinion they can’t be more than the very beginning of a defensive evaluation. As the article you quoted points out:

    “What the Synergy stats don’t take into account is the very downfall of Bargnani’s defence, and that’s his absolute bewilderment when it comes to the concept of help-defence (Synergy’s defensive measure takes into account the man a player defends from possession to possession, but doesn’t take into account the fact that a player failed to rotate properly to cover a player who has blown by one of his teammates. If that now unmarked player scores, the onus falls on the player that was initially guarding the scorer, which is the player that was blown by).”

    In fact, playing bad help defense actually helps your synergy defensive stats. Consider the situation described in the quote. A bad help defender doesn’t rotate, stays on his man and allows a layup. No harm to his synergy stats. A good help defender rotates over, and the driver dishes to his man. Now maybe the next rotation is a good one as well and that player is forced to take a tough shot or make another pass. But maybe not and that guy gets a layup. Now, according to Synergy, the guy who made a good rotation played bad defense (his man scored) while the guy who missed his rotation played good defense (his man didn’t score). This is obviously ass-backwards.

    Bargnani’s on/off defense splits have been pretty consistently awful, and in years where he has played a lot of minutes Toronto’s defense has been awful overall. The synergy stats are interesting food for thought, but at least in terms of the doubling/switching style we evolved this year good sharp rotations are the most important thing a defender can have in our system. Bargnani is a bad fit in that regard in my opinion.

  66. massive

    I don’t believe in discussing basketball with people who view ppg as the end-all be-all to basketball analysis. There is absolutely no reason for anyone to not see that Bargnani has been a terrible basketball player his whole career. Now if you want to argue that a decrease in usage and change of roles/scenery/surrounding talent will help him become a productive player (because the talent is there) is another story. But Bargnani has sucked forever. There’s no denying that.

  67. EB

    er: You know you are making Barg look better right. If the coaches had that kind of impact on Novak, its possible with a better athlete like Barf

    It had nothing to do with the coaches. Novak was and is a horrible defender. When the fifth option on a team decides to start trying to make plays against anyone then bad things will happen. All I’m saying is that when you aren’t defending good players then you grade out well on Synergy.

  68. thenamestsam

    mase:
    right!?!
    so which players would you geniuses experts put around Melo to win?
    im curious… wade, lebron, durant…guess what those guysarent available

    mase’s official NBA league rank (Knicks excluded):

    1. Lebron
    2. Durant
    3. Wade
    4. Bargnani
    5. Unclear. Chris Paul maybe?

    As long as we can’t get Lebron Durant or Wade I guess we might as well settle for 4th. Bargnani it is!!!

  69. er

    @80, 78

    I suppose you are both right. I know hes terrible overall defensively, but in the low post hes serviceable. Remember there are like 6 low post players in the NBA anyway. I only brought up synergy because EB did lol

  70. mase

    in order:
    1. barganani
    2. gallinari
    3. bellinelli
    5. kobe
    6. wade
    7. durant
    8. lebron
    9. paul

  71. johnno

    Hubert: We throw picks in seemingly without need all the time and I hate it.

    Right, because you know better than the people making the deal what it takes to get the deal done. I think that Grunwald has done enough to prove that he is not a complete idiot. What in the world makes you or anyone else think that he throws away assets just for fun?

  72. Keniman Shumpwalker

    massive:
    I don’t believe in discussing basketball with people who view ppg as the end-all be-all to basketball analysis. There is absolutely no reason for anyone to not see that Bargnani has been a terrible basketball player his whole career. Now if you want to argue that a decrease in usage and change of roles/scenery/surrounding talent will help him become a productive player (because the talent is there) is another story. But Bargnani has sucked forever. There’s no denying that.

    Couldn’t agree more. I have a friend who LOVES this trade and his sole reason for thinking that way: “We just got a 15ppg scorer who can stretch the floor for Melo and we gave away almost nothing to get him”. This logic is so flawed that it’s laughable.

  73. Keniman Shumpwalker

    mase:
    keniman wants marbury back

    Stephon Marbury is da illest baller alive son! Watchu know bout dat.

  74. mase

    “Right, because you know better than the people making the deal what it takes to get the deal done. I think that Grunwald has done enough to prove that he is not a complete idiot. What in the world makes you or anyone else think that he throws away assets just for fun?”

    well said!

  75. mase

    Stephon Marbury is da illest baller alive son! Watchu know bout dat.

    not as much as u

  76. Keniman Shumpwalker

    mase:
    Stephon Marbury is da illest baller alive son! Watchu know bout dat.

    not as much as u

    Snappy comeback, ace.

  77. daaarn

    When I first heard of the trade, for a brief second I thought “IT-who-shall-not-be-named” returned. That being said, I’m not a big fan of the trade. As a rule, I tend to distrust and dislike bigs who dont rebound, and this goes doubly so for European ones. I’m also not happy about losing yet another 1st rounder, but honestly, I don’t think that pick (which would probably be in the middle of the draft or later) would’ve been a huge difference maker.

    The only real bit of good news I learned about this trade was the fact that as it stands currently, the Knicks’ll have virtually a clean slate/payroll by the time Bargnani’s contract ends. Granted, a lot of things can and will change by then, but I am honestly hoping the Knicks retain as much cap flexibility as they can heading into that summer.

    Despite the recent success, I have measured expectations for the Melo era. Although I will keep holding out a small bit of hope that they will win a championship during this current window, I’m actually also a little curious to see what would happen if the Knicks actually tried a proper rebuilding stage once all the contracts come off.

  78. johnno

    daaarn: I’m actually also a little curious to see what would happen if the Knicks actually tried a proper rebuilding stage once all the contracts come off.

    Right, because the only way to do a “proper” rebuilding is the OKC way. Pat Riley apparently doesn’t agree with you.

  79. Keniman Shumpwalker

    johnno: Right, because you know better than the people making the deal what it takes to get the deal done.I think that Grunwald has done enough to prove that he is not a complete idiot.What in the world makes you or anyone else think that he throws away assets just for fun?

    The point isn’t so much whether those assets needed to be included to get these particular deals done, it’s whether or not we should have walked away when it became apparent that those assets were required in order to complete said deal. I’m with Hubert here in the sense that we are throwing away assets, as we have done for years, as if they are nothing. Sure, in a vacuum, those assets seem relatively small. 2nd round picks, the rights to some draft-and-stash Euroleague guy, late firsts in future drafts, etc…but the smartest FOs horde these assets until they can be packaged for something meaningful: some piece that directly increases your chances of winning in the short term or a deal that frees up money and cap space with which to pursue a significant upgrade through FA. If you are in the camp that Bargnani gives us a much better chance at beating the Heat/Pacers/Bulls/Etc over the next two years, then fine, I disagree, but fine. But if you are even lukewarm on the Bargnani deal, then you should not be happy that we’ve thrown away even more assets for a bench player with major warts who doesn’t truly fill a need. I’m in the latter camp.

  80. er

    johnno: Right, because the only way to do a “proper” rebuilding is the OKC way.Pat Riley apparently doesn’t agree with you.

    Yea OKC had something like 4 top 5 picks at the same time in KD, Westbrook, Harden, and Green. Thats crazy

  81. daaarn

    johnno: Right, because the only way to do a “proper” rebuilding is the OKC way.Pat Riley apparently doesn’t agree with you.

    Well, from what I understand of the new CBA, you’re not likely to be able to sign a Big 3 in free agency moving forward, so unless you have some young, homegrown talent as a foundation, you’re likely not gonna get very far.

  82. Hubert

    johnno: Right, because you know better than the people making the deal what it takes to get the deal done.I think that Grunwald has done enough to prove that he is not a complete idiot.What in the world makes you or anyone else think that he throws away assets just for fun?

    Come on, man. We had this same conversation last week. I’m not knocking Grunwald. It’s an organizational thing and it predates Grunwald.

  83. SJK

    Im a regular reader but infrequent poster. At one point not so long ago this blog was about intelligent back and forth discussion of basketball. It seems more and more like its dissolving into pointless name calling. This isn’t an ESPN message board. This site is better than this.

  84. Z

    daaarn:

    The only real bit of good news I learned about this trade was the fact that as it stands currently, the Knicks’ll have virtually a clean slate/payroll by the time Bargnani’s contract ends…I’m actually also a little curious to see what would happen if the Knicks actually tried a proper rebuilding stage once all the contracts come off.

    A proper rebuilding stage does require draft picks.

    johnno: Right, because the only way to do a “proper” rebuilding is the OKC way.Pat Riley apparently doesn’t agree with you.

    The Heat did have the #2 pick in the draft in 2008, which didn’t ultimately help their rebuild because of a Once-in-a-lifetime planetary collusion, but Riley definitely WAS planning to rebuild via the draft around Wade (and what he was hoping would be Rose with the #2)

  85. Hubert

    johnno: Right, because you know better than the people making the deal what it takes to get the deal done.I think that Grunwald has done enough to prove that he is not a complete idiot.What in the world makes you or anyone else think that he throws away assets just for fun?

    But to answer your question: what makes me think that we get squeezed out of assets is our history of overpaying. It empowers opposing GM’s to hold the line and bluff and forces us to pay a premium. The same way the Yankees always pay more because no one takes them seriously when they say “this is our final offer, take it or leave it.”

  86. JK47

    I don’t care what Bargnani’s Synergy number say– There is unanimous agreement among anybody who knows anything that he is an unbearably bad help defender. The enduring image of his years in Toronto is of him standing around on defense, mouth agape, late on a rotation while the opposition converts a layup. His lack of help defense is absolutely cancerous.

    I usually do a little reading of our opponents’ blogs during the season when we’re about to play them, and there is unanimous consensus among Raptor fans. They are jumping for joy right now like it’s the greatest day in franchise history.

    There is a website (a pretty good one) called Hickory High that gives post-season awards. The “award” they give for the least overall productive player in the NBA that year is known as the Andrea Bargnani Award.

    So yeah, I’m not real fucking psyched to have the guy on the team.

  87. daaarn

    Z: A proper rebuilding stage does require draft picks.

    Haha yeah, in my hypothetical scenarion, I assumed it would take another year or 2 after all those big contracts came off before the Knicks would bottom out enough to get like a top 3 pick. Speaking of, when will the Knicks have a 1st rounder again?

  88. Unreason

    Though the numbers and rep are no good, the possibility that he can save significant wear and tear on Amare’s knees appeals. Key guys’ health and minutes mgmt last season left a lot to be desired IMO. I think those issues will be just as important this year. If his effort is as advertised, I wonder if he’ll get the Camby treatment. Woodson seems very averse to soft. Does anyone know how closely Woodson works with Grunwald on these decisions?

  89. BigBlueAL

    Funny thing is Ive read a couple of articles today when discussing Bargs saying his defense has actually improved alot and he really isnt that bad defensively but his shooting has regressed and his rebounding always has sucked.

  90. Keniman Shumpwalker

    er: Yea OKC had something like 4 top 5 picks at the same time in KD, Westbrook, Harden, and Green. Thats crazy

    And the last time that franchise really swung and missed with a lottery pick was Mohammed Sene at #10 in 2006…the same year we drafted Renaldo Balkman over Rondo and that Adam Morrison, Andrea Bargnani, Tyrus Thomas & Shelden Williams were all in the top 5 (Aldridge was the other). Boy was that draft terrible.

  91. er

    BigBlueAL:
    Funny thing is Ive read a couple of articles today when discussing Bargs saying his defense has actually improved alot and he really isnt that bad defensively but his shooting has regressed and his rebounding always has sucked.

    Imagine if he avg 6 boards a game in 23mpg lmao…..he would deserve a pizza party

  92. thenamestsam

    daaarn: Well, from what I understand of the new CBA, you’re not likely to be able to sign a Big 3 in free agency moving forward, so unless you have some young, homegrown talent as a foundation, you’re likely not gonna get very far.

    Even if you do sign a big-3 type group you’re still going to need to fill in around the edges with cheap talent and finding young guys is a big part of that. Miami has relied a lot on vets, but Chalmers has been a crucial player for them the last two years and Cole gave them some important minutes as well. Even if the Knicks were able to put together a dream scenario of Melo-Love-Rondo or whoever your fantasy pairing is they’d be capped out on that alone. You’re still going to need cheap talent and the draft is a great place to find that.

  93. Goose

    I think this a better trade than most think. At the end of the day, we are trying to win a championship now and we have very little flexibility to enhance the roster/get rid of bad contracts beside this trade.

    1. We basically traded a 2016 1st round 20s pick for Bargnani and cap space in 2015

    2. We no longer need chis copeland since the Barg will provide his offense, has more potential, And is younger.

    3. We can now use the mini mid level to sign a either a quality backup point guard or an interior defender/rebounder.

    4. If we use the mini mid level for a quality big, then we can use the vet min to round out other needs such as backup pg. or if we used mini mid level for quality pg, then we use vet min for a big.

  94. er

    Goose:
    I think this a better trade than most think. At the end of the day, we are trying to win a championship now and we have very little flexibility to enhance the roster/get rid of bad contracts beside this trade.

    1. We basically traded a 2016 1st round 20s pick for Bargnani and cap space in 2015

    2. We no longer need chis copeland since the Barg will provide his offense, has more potential, And is younger.

    3. We can now use the mini mid level to sign a either a quality backup point guard or an interior defender/rebounder.

    4. If we use the mini mid level for a quality big, then we can use the vet min to round out other needs such as backup pg. or if we used mini mid level for quality pg, then we use vet min for a big.

    Shit, in all the excitement i forgot about the fact that the mini mid would have been used on Cope. Well damn that just brightened my day

  95. Keniman Shumpwalker

    I read that we are showing interest in Brandan Wright. At the vets min or even at a portion of the mini-MLE, I think he’d be a great pick up. His per/36 #s last year were great (roughly 17/8/2). He’s efficient (.606 TS%) and is a good, active defender. I’m not sure if we’ll get priced out, seems like we should based on his numbers/age/ceiling, but if he’s there for the taking, I’d love that move.

  96. DRed

    Bargnani is a terrible basketball player. He was probably the worst player in the NBA last year. He’s definitely one of the worst rebounders in the history of the NBA, plays awful team defense, and even at his very best his offensive game wasn’t good enough to make up for his massive shortcomings elsewhere. The only way having Bargnani on the team will help is if the change of scenery somehow leads to him becoming a totally different basketball player. It’s possible, I suppose, but it sure isn’t likely. As I said yesterday, trading him straight up for Steve Novak would have made the Knicks worse, but throwing away draft picks on it makes it a really bad decision.

  97. DRed

    “We no longer need chis copeland since the Barg will provide his offense, has more potential, And is younger.”

    Do you people not know how to look up stats? Copeland had a TS% of 58 last season. Bargnani has scored that efficiently or better 0 times in his career, which is the same number of times he’s put up a TS% of 57 or 56. Copeland’s season would have been-by far-the best season of Bargnani’s career. Now, it’s fair to ask if Copeland would have been able to score that well again, but it’s ridiculous to just say that Bargnani will simply replace what Copeland did last year, because he’s never done it before and is coming off one of the worst seasons in recent NBA history.

  98. bobneptune

    mase:
    right!?!
    so which players would you geniuses experts put around Melo to win?
    im curious… wade, lebron, durant…guess what those guysarent available

    I’d start with Gallinari and Chandler plus the second max player they could have signed in 2012 had His Eminence Melo not forced the trade and signed as an UFA.

    This board is going to be really funny in 2016 when all the c ontracts expire and no top value player will want to play with an overated chucker entering his 13th season. Or maybe Melo decides to take his “talents” elsewhere.

    Those 2016 and 2017 picks might be the #1 choice in the drafts :-)

    After dumping 2 seasons and having 3 seasons with melo, you guys are looking forward to blowing it up and re-tooling AGAIN in 2016?

    Wow!

  99. er

    bobneptune: I’d start with Gallinari and Chandler plus the second max player they could have signed in 2012 had His Eminence Melo not forced the trade and signed as an UFA.

    This board is going to be really funny in 2016 when all the c ontracts expire and no top value player will want to play with an overated chucker entering his 13th season. Or maybe Melo decides to take his “talents” elsewhere.

    Ahh theres the good ole Melo bashing we had been missing. How the hell are ya bobneptune?

  100. bidiong

    Melo gets too much of a bad rap. The Knicks decided to make that trade. That’s not his fault and you can’t blame him for wanting to max out his salary.

    bobneptune: I’d start with Gallinari and Chandler plus the second max player they could have signed in 2012 had His Eminence Melo not forced the trade and signed as an UFA.

    This board is going to be really funny in 2016 when all the c ontracts expire and no top value player will want to play with an overated chucker entering his 13th season. Or maybe Melo decides to take his “talents” elsewhere.

    Those 2016 and 2017 picks might be the #1 choice in the drafts :-)

    After dumping 2 seasons and having 3 seasons with melo, you guys are looking forward to blowing it up andre-tooling AGAIN in 2016?

    Wow!

  101. Z-man

    I don’t get the bashing of this trade. The draft picks? The 2 ultra-late second rounders are no more likely to be productive than an undrafted free agent. The 2016 late first rounder? Possibly a keeper, but more likely not productive until 2018. And just as likely not productive at all.

    We replaced Steve Novak (the quintessential 1-trick pony who couldn’t dunk on a Fisher-Price hoop) with a guy who can also hit the open 3 but can actually drive and dunk when it’s there, and whose contract expires earlier, giving us 4 HUGE expirings for next year.

    Oh, and we dumped the worthless contract of the soon to be AARP-eligible Camby, who showed up totally out of shape and contributed zero in the year we really needed him to give us something. And he’s pissed off? Fuck him.

    Realy, guys, get a grip. This is not a deal to compare to the Curry, or Steph, or H2o max, or Ewing dump, or Stevie Franchise, or Jerome James. Given what is out there, this was a no harm, no foul kind of deal at worst. It’s definitely not a game-changer on the downside, and probably not on the upside either, although there is at least an outside possibility for the latter.

    This guy has a lot of talent, WAY more than Novak. There is really no disputing that. For a hopelessly capped-out team, it’s a reasonable short-term move.

  102. Keniman Shumpwalker

    Z-man:
    I don’t get the bashing of this trade. The draft picks? The 2 ultra-late second rounders are no more likely to be productive than an undrafted free agent. The 2016 late first rounder? Possibly a keeper, but more likely not productive until 2018. And just as likely not productive at all.

    It’s not about what players the draft picks actually become, it’s about giving away valuable assets that, in the future, could be packaged for something more substantial than, say, a likely reserve big with health issues and overrated shooting ability (not to mention terrible rebounding and, at best, average D).

  103. d-mar

    Just the idea of dragging Hibbert’s oversize body out of the paint and forcing him to cover Bargnani is appealing. And I’m sure it’ll make Melo and JR happy when they drive to the hoop and don’t have to deal with the “straight up and down” no call on Hibbert.

    And, yes, I get that Hibbert will destroy him on the other end, but he killed us last year anyway (even with the DPOY guarding him), and at least he won’t be playing goalie all night on the defensive side.

  104. er

    Keniman Shumpwalker: It’s not about what players the draft picks actually become, it’s about giving away valuable assets that, in the future, could be packaged for something more substantial than, say, a likely reserve big with health issues and overrated shooting ability (not to mention terrible rebounding and, at best, average D).

    we gave away one asset. 2016 (late no matter what) 1st round pick for :the ability to free up the mid level this year, an expiring contract in 15′ rather than 16′ and an extra roster spot for this year.

  105. Keniman Shumpwalker

    er: we gave away one asset. 2016 (late no matter what) 1st round pick for :the ability to free up the mid level this year, an expiring contract in 15? rather than 16? and an extra roster spot for this year.

    Yes, we did…sort of (I’m not sure that we would have used the mini-MLE on Cope, which I assume is what you mean by freeing up the mid level). And I don’t like what we gave up that asset for, plain and simple. It’s an asset I wish we held on to for the hope of something better in the future. I said earlier today, one of the multitude of threads, that I’m not jumping off a cliff because of this deal. But I’m not thrilled that we keep giving away assets for marginal returns.

  106. JK47

    Keniman Shumpwalker: It’s not about what players the draft picks actually become, it’s about giving away valuable assets that, in the future, could be packaged for something more substantial than, say, a likely reserve big with health issues and overrated shooting ability (not to mention terrible rebounding and, at best, average D).

    Also known as opportunity cost.

  107. bidiong

    I guess after reading all the back and forth on here I’m alright with the deal now. With any luck a lower usage rate will help this guy play better. Maybe he’ll come with a chip on his shoulder also.

  108. JK47

    Knicks are apparently interested in Matt Barnes, who I love as a player. He does the “glue guy” thing as well as anyone.

  109. Keniman Shumpwalker

    JK47:
    Knicks are apparently interested in Matt Barnes, who I love as a player. He does the “glue guy” thing as well as anyone.

    I’m a BIG Matt Barnes fan. As much for his “glue guy” ability as for his utter and complete thuggishness. K-Mart and Matt Barnes would go along way towards covering up Bargnani’s softness on the second unit.

  110. er

    JK47:
    Knicks are apparently interested in Matt Barnes, who I love as a player. He does the “glue guy” thing as well as anyone.

    the nets would kill for barnes…..i have yet to figure out who is guarding anyone on that team.

  111. bobneptune

    bidiong:
    Melogets too much of a bad rap.The Knicks decided to make that trade. That’s not his fault and you can’t blame him for wanting to max out his salary.

    I agree it was Dolans need to increase ticket prices to help pay the renovation (along with his impetous nature) that really made the trade happen, but melo then can’t cry and whine he doesn’t have the complementry pieces around him and never has a shot at a championship.

    When he bails out (or better yet forces another trade by laying down), the lols will ensue, with the knicks left bereft of picks :-)

    Anyone want to make a price on his weight entering camp this fall with no olympics to be in shape for during the summer? Fatty Felton?

  112. bidiong

    I actually think Melo will be in great shape. He’s motivated. I’m not his biggest defender, but I have no problem having him on the Knicks if we couldn’t have had LeBron.

  113. Z

    In an under-reported element to the trade, Q Richardson has now been trade for both Darko Milicic and Andrea Bargani– the single two worst white 7 foot top-two draft pick busts of all time.

  114. nyk8806

    To steal Hubert’s GG/rabbits out of hats analogy, despite his proven uncanny ability to find value in the garbage heap of the league, I feel like I’m watching a magic show where the magician just stuck the first sword into a lady in a box and some blood is starting to drip out the corners. I’m telling myself it’s just a macabre way to build suspense, and once the other eight swords go in and the off-season ends, the box will be removed, fireworks will go off, and a smiling lady will emerge unscathed with a empty jar of cherry syrup, but the first signs are not making me sanguine.

    Hopefully GG has learned enough from last season that whatever other moves he makes, we won’t be rolling the dice on having injury-plagued “veterans” at the ends of their careers stay healthy and productive over the course of the season and playoffs.

  115. bobneptune

    er: Ahh theres the good ole Melo bashing we had been missing. How the hell are ya bobneptune?

    The truth shall set you free , brother er !

    What about melo’s playoff performance do you like best: his 40.6% fg%, his 29.8% from 3, his .497 TS% or his 38% usage? or maybe it was the 8 whole assists he got in six games with Indiana? makes players around him better, that Melo!

    And , by the way, those playoff numbers are consistent with his entire body of work for his career in the playoffs.

    Superstar IMO!

  116. bobneptune

    bidiong:
    Iactually thinkMelowill be in great shape.He’s motivated.I’m nothis biggest defender, but Ihave no problem having him on theKnicks if we couldn’t have had LeBron.

    I wouldn’t have any problem with him either had he come via UFA and not having to trade 7 assets for him :-)

    He’s a poor mans Dominique Wilkins…. puts lots of fannies in the seats but champoinships avoid him like meat shuns the grinder!

  117. mokers

    So Tyreke Evans is getting 4/44 from the Pelicans. That would make me think that somebody would offer JR at least 4/36. At that type of salary, I don’t think you could blame him for leaving.

  118. d-mar

    bobneptune: I wouldn’t have any problem with him either had he come via UFA and not having to trade 7 assets for him :-)

    He’s a poor mans Dominique Wilkins…. puts lots of fannies in the seats but champoinships avoid him like meat shuns the grinder!

    Yeah, true, all great players get at least one championship – Ewing, Barkley, Malone, Stockton, Nash etc.

  119. Brian Cronin

    What fascinates me about the Evan signing is the following:

    1. Will Sacramento match?

    2. If they don’t, what the heck will New Orleans do with Eric Gordon? How do you get anything for that guy?

    I’m still shocked that New Orleans drafted Austin Rivers. This just makes that pick just seem even dumber.

  120. chrisk06811

    You guys are overlooking all the non bball bullshit that came along with novak. The stupid technicals, the fighting, the clubbing, tweeting pics of all that ass he’s getting. Good riddance. Let him go thug it up with landry fields in Canada; they will probably destroy the whole country or get shot trying.

  121. Goose

    Stats can only be analyzed by intelligent people. You can’t look at TS% without usage rate. Copeland was in and out of the rotation, and was usually open when he shot due to teams not knowing who he was.

    DRed:
    “We no longer need chis copeland since the Barg will provide his offense, has more potential, And is younger.”

    Do you people not know how to look up stats?Copeland had a TS% of 58 last season.Bargnani has scored that efficiently or better 0 times in his career, which is the same number of times he’s put up a TS% of 57 or 56.Copeland’s season would have been-by far-the best season of Bargnani’s career.Now, it’s fair to ask if Copeland would have been able to score that well again, but it’s ridiculous to just say that Bargnani will simply replace what Copeland did last year, because he’s never done it before and is coming off one of the worst seasons in recent NBA history.

  122. bobneptune

    d-mar: Yeah, true, all great players get at least one championship – Ewing, Barkley, Malone, Stockton, Nash etc.

    DM,

    Maybe I’m nutty, but the above players you mentioned brought way more to the quest of a championship table than melo does.

    Plus, as you forget, he could have come and still had assets to build a real team around him.

    Note what the selfless Heat 3 took as a haircut in salary to play together. Melo had to get every last dime. He got it and the knicks will never have as good a record this year in the next decade.

  123. Z

    chrisk06811:
    You guys are overlooking all the non bball bullshit that came along with novak.The stupid technicals, the fighting, the clubbing, tweeting pics of all that ass he’s getting.Good riddance.Let him go thug it up with landry fields in Canada; they will probably destroy the whole country or get shot trying.

    So true!

  124. Brian Cronin

    I don’t think Melo has ever specifically complained about the Knicks not giving him more supporting talent. There have been some rumors that suggest that he believes that, but he’s never actually said it publicly. And until he does so, I don’t think it is fair to call the guy a hypocrite. There is no doubt that yes, he put his own financial interests above the Knicks having the best team possible back when he got traded. But I don’t think there’s anything wrong with any player doing that. Getting the most money you possibly can is fine by me. The only problem is if you try to get the most money you possibly can and then complain about the results of that decision. I do not believe Melo has actually done that. Some people have claimed he believes that, but he has never actually said it publicly (heck, I don’t think there’s even any evidence that he has said it privately), so I don’t think it is fair to act as if it is a fact that he does believe that.

  125. bobneptune

    d-mar: Yeah, true, all great players get at least one championship – Ewing, Barkley, Malone, Stockton, Nash etc.

    Also, please God, to paraphrase Sparky Anderson when he said don’t embarrass Thurmon Munson by mentioning him in the same sentence with Johnny Bench as a catcher, don’t ever embarrass Melo again by mentioning him with Ewing, Barkley, Malone, Stocton, Nash…….

    As Shakespeare (Julius Carsar) once said that’s like “comparing an Hyperion with a Satyr”

  126. Juany8

    Goose:
    Stats can only be analyzed by intelligent people. You can’t look at TS% without usage rate. Copeland was in and out of the rotation, and was usually open when he shot due to teams not knowing who he was.

    lol I fully agree with this post, although to be fair there are very few ways to look at stats that make Bargniani look like he played well the past 2 seasons. Of course, there was zero evidence that Novak would have been good last year, and plenty of evidence he was a garbage player, and zero evidence that Copeland has any game (there was more excitement for James White) so let’s stop pretending any of us are actually good at predicting anything but the most obvious outcomes.

    Novak was garbage last year and didn’t play in the playoffs, so in no way does this move make the Knicks worse in the next 2 years. If Bargs is terrible/bitchy he gets to sit, just like Novak and Camby would have in next year’s playoffs. Don’t like giving up the first round pick at all, unless Bargs actually plays at a decent level that’s a pretty valuable asset to just waste.

  127. JK47

    You know, the offense was pretty much built around Melo and JR Pipe last year, and it was the #3 offense in the league. For all the talk about “inefficient chucker” and whatever related bullshit, the offense was very good– elite level, even. So as far as I’m concerned Melo did his job.

  128. bobneptune

    Brian Cronin:
    I don’t think Melo has ever specifically complained about the Knicks not giving him more supporting talent. There have been some rumors that suggest that he believes that, but he’s never actually said it publicly. And until he does so, I don’t think it is fair to call the guy a hypocrite. There is no doubt that yes, he put his own financial interests above the Knicks having the best team possible back when he got traded. But I don’t think there’s anything wrong with any player doing that. Getting the most money you possibly can is fine by me. The only problem is if you try to get the most money you possibly can and then complain about the results of that decision. I do not believe Melo has actually done that. Some people have claimed he believes that, but he has never actually said it publicly (heck, I don’t think there’s even any evidence that he has said it privately), so I don’t think it is fair to act as if it is a fact that he does believe that.

    After we have seen the guy in action the past 2.5 seasons, do you actually think he is going to look at himself in the mirror and blame his own greed for the knicks’s failings?

    As you said, there is no law against leveraging your own position to maximize salary, I merely state the Miami 3 all took haircuts to play together. They coincidentially won the last 2 championships:-)

  129. ruruland

    bobneptune: DM,

    Maybe I’m nutty, but the above players you mentioned brought way more to the quest of a championship table than melo does.

    Plus, as you forget, he could have come and still had assets to build a real team around him.

    Note what the selfless Heat 3 took as a haircut in salary to play together. Melo had to get every last dime. He got it and the knicks will never have as good a record this year in the next decade.

    Care if I bring up some of your posts prior to last season, dogrufus?

  130. Frank O.

    This from ESPN pretty much is what this trade is about:

    But Bargnani’s contract will have expired entering the 2014-15 season, giving the Knicks the prospect of cap flexibility in 2015, when the salaries of Anthony, Amar’e Stoudemire and Tyson Chandler come off the books.


    Aside from those guys, I wonder who else becomes an FA…

  131. Brian Cronin

    This from ESPN pretty much is what this trade is about:

    But Bargnani’s contract will have expired entering the 2014-15 season, giving the Knicks the prospect of cap flexibility in 2015, when the salaries of Anthony, Amar’e Stoudemire and Tyson Chandler come off the books.


    Aside from those guys, I wonder who else becomes an FA…

    I think we all generally agree that that is what it was about. The question then just becomes “Was it worth trading a first round draft pick to free up that $3.75 million that Novak was making in 2015-16 that he never should been making in the first place?” So the Knicks lose a first round draft pick to make up for signing Novak to a stupid contract (four years when there was no indication of any other team willing to go three!).

  132. Igno-Bot 3000

    To pile on another opinion about Andrea, the thing that bothers me the most about this trade is the timing. The fact that it was announced on the eve of free agency. Do you think he wouldn’t have been available a month from now? Wasn’t he an amnesty candidate? Shouldn’t have they let the market determine some kind of value for Andrea, considering that it was obviously the Raptors priority to dump him?

    That’s the thing when your’e talking to a lot of Knicks fans about trades like these – they don’t look at the opportunity cost. Sure, Andrea and 4 million saved in cap space for 2015 might seem like an OK return for a presumably late first-round 2016 pick. Hell, I’m even talking myself into it typing it out. But was there really no other options available to dump Novak? Or better assets to use the pick on? Or better short-term solutions to “space the floor” than Andrea? Or minimum players who could have filled the same role? Or a trade for a backup (or starting) PG whom we desperately need? Or wing depth? It just seems like while the trade is OK in a vacuum, it addresses none of our short-term needs while taking away one of our only assets that could have been used somewhere else. Just like with the Carmelo trade, we were in a position of power but still managed to give up a king’s gambit.

    Look, Andrea might have the best season of his career here. But (it certainly looks like) we’re letting go a player who just had a better (granted, relatively small sample size) season than Andrea’s ever had (The Knicks have not reached out to Copeland). Was this really the best move available!?

  133. bobneptune

    JK47:
    You know, the offense was pretty much built around Melo and JR Pipe last year, and it was the #3 offense in the league. For all the talk about “inefficient chucker” and whatever related bullshit, the offense was very good– elite level, even. So as far as I’m concerned Melo did his job.

    Definition of inefficient chucker:

    Melo first in the NBA in usage and 88th in TS% of 334 qualified.

    Thanks for playing…..

  134. JK47

    bobneptune: Definition of inefficientchucker:

    Melo first in the NBA in usageand 88th in TS% of 334 qualified.

    Thanks for playing…..

    In your opinion, the Knicks’ offense was built around two “inefficient chuckers.” Yet the Knicks were 3rd in the NBA in offensive rating. Curious, that.

  135. GHenman

    Don’t know if you guys noticed, but Golden State offered David Lee for that bum we wasted a No. 1 on. Also, Copeland has interest from enough teams so that he will probably get an offer for more than the mini-mle any way.

  136. Igno-Bot 3000

    Maybe, but he hasn’t yet. And the team hasn’t even reached out to him yet.

    If that’s the market value for Andrea, than so bet it. Let GS overpay for him. I don’t see what skills he brings to the table that are so valuable that we need him at any cost.

    GHenman:
    Don’t know if you guys noticed, but Golden State offered David Lee for that bum we wasted a No. 1 on.Also, Copeland has interest from enough teams so that he will probably get an offer for more than the mini-mle any way.

  137. Frank O.

    Brian Cronin: I think we all generally agree that that is what it was about. The question then just becomes “Was it worth trading a first round draft pick to free up that $3.75 million that Novak was making in 2015-16 that he never should been making in the first place?” So the Knicks lose a first round draft pick to make up for signing Novak to a stupid contract (four years when there was no indication of any other team willing to go three!).

    My understanding is that the first rounder was in 2016, was never going to be lottery because Denver would take it, so at best late 1st. And a lot can happen between then and now. With bargnani, Amare, Tyson and melo’s contracts all ending, the Knicks can clear a hell of a lot of cap space, or use them as expirings tp trade. You may get more 1st rounders from the expirings.
    This smells like Grunwald smartly preparing for the post-Amare-Melo-Tyson era.

  138. Brian Cronin

    My understanding is that the first rounder was in 2016, was never going to be lottery because Denver would take it, so at best late 1st. And a lot can happen between then and now. With bargnani, Amare, Tyson and melo’s contracts all ending, the Knicks can clear a hell of a lot of cap space, or use them as expirings tp trade. You may get more 1st rounders from the expirings.
    This smells like Grunwald smartly preparing for the post-Amare-Melo-Tyson era.

    A lot can happen between then and now, including the Knicks and the Nuggets both being in the lottery in 2016.

    Also, regarding an early 20’s #1 pick. It is pretty funny to see how an early #20s #1 pick went from being potentially a very good player when the Knicks were drafting at #24 to being a garbage pick when the Knicks are trading it away.

  139. Igno-Bot 3000

    The other point I wanted to make was that when the Knicks needed cap space in 2011, they shipped off Turiaf to the Wizards for $3 million and a 2013 second round pick. Has the market fluctuated that much that $4 million in cap space two years from now is worth a 2016 first rounder and two second-rounders?

  140. Igno-Bot 3000

    Also (sorry last one..for now), this reminds me of when the Knicks traded a first rounder in 2010 to jump Jeffries’ contract, when three months later, the Heat traded Beasley with a second rounder to clear up cap space. The Knicks problem then and now, Walsh and Grunfield, is that they are way too impulsive and thus misjudge the value of what they’re giving and receiving.

  141. Brian Cronin

    And the Knicks were extremely desperate when they made the Turiaf deal, so they’re actually dealing from a strong negotiating stance here and they ended up giving away more.

  142. GHenman

    It’s only July 2nd, I don’t think Cope will be anybody’s top priority. My point about Bargnani is he is not the worthless piece of crap that everyone thinks we could have gotten for nothing. I sure would have liked to have him in that Indiana series.

  143. Frank O.

    Brian Cronin: A lot can happen between then and now, including the Knicks and the Nuggets both being in the lottery in 2016.

    Also, regarding an early 20?s #1 pick. It is pretty funny to see how an early #20s #1 pick went from being potentially a very good player when the Knicks were drafting at #24 to being a garbage pick when the Knicks are trading it away.

    Well, I never suggested that…but if the Bargnani trade helps the Knicks get an unrestricted 1st rounder for a size able expiring, or more, it could be worth it.
    I don’t disagree with that the Knicks probably gave up to much money to resign Novak. At the time he was the best 3pt shooter in the game. He was far less effective last year.
    But I like that they are looking to 2015. They need to. What big FAs are there in 2015, besides ours?

  144. dtrickey

    Hubert:
    What a joke.We have a very good basketball team.Do I like giving up a #1 pick in 2016?Hell no.But don’t give me this shit that this team isn’t worth investing in.I fucking loved this team last year.That was the most fun I had watching the Knicks in 13 years.Glen Grunwald has been pulling rabbits out of hats. Give him a chance.

    *slow clap* Thank you!! I am so sick of reading all this doom and gloom, the sky is falling crap. I can also legitimately say I thoroughly enjoyed and loved this team this year. Unfortunately living in Australia, NBA coverage wasn’t that great during the 90’s and I missed seeing a lot of the Knicks during their better days when I was a kid, and it was a really great change of pace to be up their contending this year.

    I was also not a fan of giving away the 1st rounder, but I also don’t buy into the commentary that this is the worst trade this franchise has made.

    Fact of the matter is we were a 54 win team that struggled to put our best players consistenly on the floor due to injury. The core group is coming back for a second year (something that hasn’t happened in a very long time) plus some potential upgrades in the rotation. I don’t buy into the talk that we drop out of contention in the East.

  145. Igno-Bot 3000

    Except he was out for the season on March 8th. And we had a much better floor-spacer glued to the bench.

  146. nicos

    bobneptune: Definition of inefficientchucker:

    Melo first in the NBA in usageand 88th in TS% of 334 qualified.

    Thanks for playing…..

    Wait, the definition of inefficient is being in the top third of TS% (and waaay below average in TO%)? My synergy subscription has lapsed but I’m sure Melo’s ppp had to be in the top 15-20%. At that usage he’s a huge asset offensively unless you thinks he’s responsible for Prigs’s, Novak’s, and Chandler’s low usage numbers which is extremely dubious- the guy he probably took the most shots away from was Felton.

  147. hoolahoop

    JT – This was the most coherent rant I’ve read on this website in three years. A second rate trade by one of the most dysfunctional organizations in sports.

    What did I miss with Novack? He was the best 3-point shooter in the league and got banished overnight. So, let’s trade him for an injury prone, soft that can spread the floor???? And while we’re at it, let’s throw in some draft picks.

  148. Frank O.

    Lebron and a ton of good guards and forwards all break free that year.
    Lebron, Wade and Bosh all are up.

    Also, Felton and Shump expire in 15.
    So essentially, the Knicks starting lineup expires in ’15.

    With so much talent possibly entering free agency, it seems important to clear as much space as you can.

  149. Igno-Bot 3000

    Bulls sign Dunleavy Jr for the mini-MLE (two years, $6 mil) **FLOOR SPACING/WINS ABOVE REPLACEMENT ALERT***

    In the last three years, averaged 11 ppg, 41% 3P%, 59% TS%, 55% eFG%, 4.4 WAR. Just sayin

  150. Zanzibar

    So looks like CJ Watson will be a Pacer. I suppose that’s good news in the sense that we were worried Indy might snag Pablo. And also somewhat positive, I haven’t heard of any interest in Prigs. Question: if we are able to retain PP at the QO of 1m, that’s not MLE money, right? We still have the entire 3m to spend on another player?

    At this stage I’d be happy if we can keep Pablo for the 1m, sign a quality player with the MLE, and are lucky in our vet min contracts. Don’t think that Brewer exception has any real value. Someone compared GG to a magician earlier but he’s really got no hat, no sleeves, no aide, no nuttin’ at his disposal. He’s standing up there naked in just his socks – 3m cash stuffed in one sock and 3m MLE in the other. BTW how ironic that GG swapped Jones 2 year cancellable contract for QRich probably as insurance for an errant playoffs JR and Woody didn’t give Q any minutes not to mention keeping Cope on the bench way too long as JR’s every game was like Starks Game 6 Groundhog Day? Oh and I’ve read Pacers have strong interest in Cope – I guess witnessing first hand his torrid shooting against their stingy defense made them believers.

  151. Brian Cronin

    if we are able to retain PP at the QO of 1m, that’s not MLE money, right? We still have the entire 3m to spend on another player?

    Correct. That is not mini-MLE money.

  152. bobneptune

    nicos: Wait, the definition of inefficient is being in the top third of TS% (and waaay below average in TO%)?My synergy subscription has lapsed but I’m sure Melo’s ppp had to be in the top 15-20%.

    He’s grossly inefficient as a guy who masquerades as at top player/mvp type for example:

    James… Usage % rank = 5th TS% 3rd
    durant….U % Rank = 6th TS% 2nd
    Melo……U % rank = 1st TS% 88th
    Paul…….U % rank = 40th TS% 16th
    Bryant….U % rank = 3rd TS% 68th
    Duncan….U % rank = 12th TS% 103th
    Parker…..U % rank = 14th TS% 44th
    Harden….U % rank = 9th TS% 14th

    Note the TS% stats were taken from both BB reference and espn. NBA.com had Melo’s TS% ranked 103rd as they uses different levels to qualify players. But it gives the general idea.

  153. ruruland

    bobneptune: He’s grossly inefficient as a guy who masquerades as at top player/mvp type for example:

    James… Usage % rank = 5thTS% 3rd
    durant….U % Rank = 6thTS% 2nd
    Melo……U % rank = 1stTS% 88th
    Paul…….U % rank =40th TS% 16th
    Bryant….U % rank = 3rdTS% 68th
    Duncan….U % rank = 12thTS% 103th
    Parker…..U % rank = 14thTS% 44th
    Harden….U %rank = 9thTS% 14th

    Note the TS% stats were taken from both BB reference and espn. NBA.com had Melo’s TS% ranked 103rd as they uses different levels to qualify players. But it gives the general idea.

    You are not adjusting for turnovers, human paraquat.

    Melo had one of the lowest to % in NBA history for high usage players. I can get you specifics in a couple of hours if I haven’t vanquished you by then.

    He was VERY efficient last year, on a points per possession basis, right there with anyone but Lebron, Durant and Chris Paul.

    He’s a tier below those three, but he’s about as good as anyone in that tier.

  154. ruruland

    bobneptune: He’s grossly inefficient as a guy who masquerades as at top player/mvp type for example:

    James… Usage % rank = 5thTS% 3rd
    durant….U % Rank = 6thTS% 2nd
    Melo……U % rank = 1stTS% 88th
    Paul…….U % rank =40th TS% 16th
    Bryant….U % rank = 3rdTS% 68th
    Duncan….U % rank = 12thTS% 103th
    Parker…..U % rank = 14thTS% 44th
    Harden….U %rank = 9thTS% 14th

    Note the TS% stats were taken from both BB reference and espn. NBA.com had Melo’s TS% ranked 103rd as they uses different levels to qualify players. But it gives the general idea.

    Why would one choose to use the phrase “grossly inefficient” (even when using your parameters for efficiency) when Melo’s TS % was considerably better than league average?

    How fucking stupid does one have to be to make that kind of a statement?

  155. er

    bobneptune: He’s grossly inefficient as a guy who masquerades as at top player/mvp type for example:

    James… Usage % rank = 5thTS% 3rd
    durant….U % Rank = 6thTS% 2nd
    Melo……U % rank = 1stTS% 88th
    Paul…….U % rank =40th TS% 16th
    Bryant….U % rank = 3rdTS% 68th
    Duncan….U % rank = 12thTS% 103th
    Parker…..U % rank = 14thTS% 44th
    Harden….U %rank = 9thTS% 14th

    Note the TS% stats were taken from both BB reference and espn. NBA.com had Melo’s TS% ranked 103rd as they uses different levels to qualify players. But it gives the general idea.

    Melo TS% = 56 Melo fg%.449 Melo 3p% .379% Melo FT% .830
    Harden TS%=60 Harden fg% .438 Harden 3p% .368 Harden FT% .851

    So lemme get this straight. Melo shot 3s and overall better fg percentage than James Harden. AND he shot more than James harden because harden LED the league in ft attempts. BUT because harden shot soooo many fts and shot at at WHOPPING 2% better clip you give your bullshit advance stats to show Melo i s 88th and Harden is 14th????

    LMAO take your stats and shut up

  156. Frank

    Re: Melo – there’s no doubt in my mind that he needs to shoot less — but I don’t think it was necessarily all his fault. With all the ball movers on the court, he was supposed to shoot less not more. If you have Prigs, Shump, Melo, Kidd, and Chandler on the court, who do you think will put up the lion’s share of the shots? It’s all well and good to move the ball, but I would wager there were as many good shots lost by overpassing as there were created by making “the extra pass”. In the playoffs, it was comical watching guys being afraid to shoot the ball.

    I think that’s why they’re trying to bring in more offensive minded players. Maybe Bargnani isn’t who I was thinking of, but I get the sentiment.

  157. ruruland

    er: Melo TS% = 56 Melo fg%.449 Melo 3p% .379% Melo FT% .830
    Harden TS%=60 Harden fg% .438 Harden 3p% .368 Harden FT% .851

    So lemme get this straight. Melo shot 3s and overall better fg percentage than James Harden. AND he shot more than James harden because harden LED the league in ft attempts. BUT because harden shot soooo many fts and shot at at WHOPPING 2% better clip you give your bullshit advance stats to show Melo i s 88th and Harden is 14th????

    LMAO take your stats and shut up

    Melo, IIRC, was actually more efficient than Harden when we adjust for turnovers.

    Harden’s game is high risk, high reward. Turnovers are part of his ability to generate so many fts w his flopping mastery.

    Turnovers, naturally, are considerably worse than missed shots, but even if we disregard the point differential between a missed shot and a turnover, Melo, I believe, was more efficient than Harden last year.

    I’ll check though. If he wasn’t more efficient, it was very close. The usage differential make’s Melo’s season much more impressive.

    The inverse relationship for middling-high to high usage players as they go above average usage and below average has been proven time and again.

    There’s little correlation when we look at usage changes across the league as a whole likely because there is little fluctuation in player role, but it does change at the higher levels because that’s where the dramatic shot distribution changes occur.

  158. ruruland

    Frank:
    Re: Melo – there’s no doubt in my mind that he needs to shoot less — but I don’t think it was necessarily all his fault.With all the ball movers on the court, he was supposed to shoot less not more.If you have Prigs, Shump, Melo, Kidd, and Chandler on the court, who do you think will put up the lion’s share of the shots?It’s all well and good to move the ball, but I would wager there were as many good shots lost by overpassing as there were created by making “the extra pass”.In the playoffs, it was comical watching guys being afraid to shoot the ball.

    I think that’s why they’re trying to bring in more offensive minded players. Maybe Bargnani isn’t who I was thinking of, but I get the sentiment.

    Usage goes down to about 30 in his career with Amar’e and his assist rate goes WAY up.

  159. ruruland

    nicos: Wait, the definition of inefficient is being in the top third of TS% (and waaay below average in TO%)?My synergy subscription has lapsed but I’m sure Melo’s ppp had to be in the top 15-20%.At that usage he’s a huge asset offensively unless you thinks he’s responsible for Prigs’s, Novak’s, and Chandler’s low usage numbers which is extremely dubious- the guy he probably took the most shots away from was Felton.

    I’m going to pull up the Synergy numbers tonight with some pretty surprising AB stuff, but since Bob/dog graced us with his presence I guess I’ll get the Melo stuff out again as well.

  160. Frank

    ruruland: Usage goes down to about 30 in his career with Amar’e and his assist rate goes WAY up.

    If you think about the Spurs best lineups, no one on that team is afraid to shoot when they have a good look. Parker, Ginobili, and Duncan are no-brainers, but Green was launching anytime he had a good look. Kawhi had no issues shooting when a good opportunity came. Gary Neal was shooting every time he got the ball. And all their perimeter players were able to attack a closeout which then created either an open shot or a pass to an open shot.

    IF you looked at our team in the playoffs, especially with Kidd, and to a lesser extent with Shump and Prigioni, these guys had open shots and refused to take them. Those are high efficiency shots that are not taken, often forcing an eventually less efficient shot, usually involving Melo driving into a crowd or pulling up from midrange. That’s one of the reasons Cope was so good — when he had an open 3, he took it. That’s what you’re supposed to do when you’re a good shooter.

    Shump and Prigs were much more aggressive as the playoffs went on, thankfully.

  161. Juany8

    er: Melo TS% = 56 Melo fg%.449 Melo 3p% .379% Melo FT% .830
    Harden TS%=60 Harden fg% .438 Harden 3p% .368 Harden FT% .851

    So lemme get this straight. Melo shot 3s and overall better fg percentage than James Harden. AND he shot more than James harden because harden LED the league in ft attempts. BUT because harden shot soooo many fts and shot at at WHOPPING 2% better clip you give your bullshit advance stats to show Melo i s 88th and Harden is 14th????

    LMAO take your stats and shut up

    Not gonna lie, I’m worried about Harden’s free throw totals. Feel like he’s going to get a few less calls this year, which will result in either his usage or efficiency taking a bit of a hit. Maybe I’m wrong, but I will say that as someone who watched both teams often, there is no doubt that Melo was a better offensive player last year, although I think Harden will overtake him in a year or two once the Rockets put some other options around him and he develops more of a mid range game. Also needs to work on his turnovers, a missed shot is a significantly better outcome than a turnover, and that’s something that goes unappreciated with Melos game, especially when he’s taking power forwards away from the paint, improving Chandler’s chances of getting a rebound (even if guarded by someone like Paul George, the PF has to guard a 3 point shooter) not to mention the fact that he gets so many of his own misses. It would be interesting to see a recalculated TS% where the putbacks off his own misses are calculated as a single made shot.

  162. ruruland

    Frank: If you think about the Spurs best lineups, no one on that team is afraid to shoot when they have a good look.Parker, Ginobili, and Duncan are no-brainers, but Green was launching anytime he had a good look. Kawhi had no issues shooting when a good opportunity came. Gary Neal was shooting every time he got the ball.And all their perimeter players were able to attack a closeout which then created either an open shot or a pass to an open shot.

    IF you looked at our team in the playoffs, especially with Kidd, and to a lesser extent with Shump and Prigioni, these guys had open shots and refused to take them. Those are high efficiency shots that are not taken, often forcing an eventually less efficient shot, usually involving Melo driving into a crowd or pulling up from midrange. That’s one of the reasons Cope was so good — when he had an open 3, he took it. That’s what you’re supposed to do when you’re a good shooter.

    Shump and Prigs were much more aggressive as the playoffs went on, thankfully.

    Yes, all good and valid points.

    Not having other initiation points was just part of the problem, but capitalizing on already executed plays was also an issue, it slightly undermines Prigs’ value, but when he makes the right decisions passing and driving he is pretty good.

    I don’t see that being an issue for Shump moving forward. He’s erred on being too aggressive much of his career.

  163. ruruland

    Like I said a few months ago, my ideal starting lineup next year would be: Prigs, Shump, Melo, Amar’e, Chandler.

    Bench: KMart, JR (obviously in doubt) Felton, Bargs and then Copeland or whatever vet min shooter we can get (hope for Cope!).

    If you simply played them as units I think you’d get good balance with each 5.

    The key is keeping Felton’s usage below 20, where he can be very effective (by taking out most of the mid-range shots), reducing Jr’s usage and putting him off the ball (hence the more aggressive pg)….

    Bargs, IMO, has a chance to be a pretty efficient 20 usage guy who could perhaps be the center in 5-out lineups, possibly with Cope at 4, and whatever combination you wanted 1-3.

    That’s a team that if it could simply maintain or slightly improve last year’s defensive efficiency, would likely make another jump in offensive efficiency.

  164. Zanzibar

    ruruland:
    Like I said a few months ago, my ideal starting lineup next year would be: Prigs, Shump, Melo, Amar’e, Chandler.

    Bench: KMart, JR (obviously in doubt) Felton, Bargs and then Copeland or whatever vet min shooter we can get (hope for Cope!).

    So here’s my preferred 12 man roster which might be attainable with a bit of luck:

    Felton/Prigioni/Shumpert/Hardaway/Melo/Amare/Chandler/Bargnani/Cope or Barnes using mle/Delfino/Elton Brand/young C like Jorts, Simms or Jordan

  165. hoolahoop

    That’s a 41-45 win team – at best.

    ruruland: Like I said a few months ago, my ideal starting lineup next year would be: Prigs, Shump, Melo, Amar’e, Chandler.

  166. Hubert

    Man, I can’t believe one area basketball team gave up 4 unprotected draft picks for three guys who should be retired, and we’re the team that’s getting killed in the media and by our own fans for making a terrible trade.

  167. Donnie Walsh

    ruruland:, but since Bob/dog graced us with his presence I guess I’ll get the Melo stuff out again as well.

    Why, on the first day of free agency, after a significant trade by the Knicks, do you care what one person’s opinion of Carmelo Anthony is? Why do they need to be “vanquished”? Can’t you start your own blog with Anthony’s efficiency stats reported everyday, and let the knickerbloggers talk peacefully amongst ourselves?

  168. er

    Hubert:
    Man, I can’t believe one area basketball team gave up 4 unprotected draft picks for three guys who should be retired, and we’re the team that’s getting killed in the media and by our own fans for making a terrible trade.

    I openly mocked my brother who is a Nyets fan….awful trade

  169. ruruland

    Zanzibar: So here’s my preferred 12 man roster which might be attainable with a bit of luck:

    Felton/Prigioni/Shumpert/Hardaway/Melo/Amare/Chandler/Bargnani/Cope or Barnes using mle/Delfino/Elton Brand/young C like Jorts, Simms or Jordan

    That’s a great bench.

    Obviously it’ll likely be Hardaway taking a big part of JR’s role if JR leaves, but I wonder how he makes rotation if JR returns. I’m sure Leslie gets stashed.

  170. ruruland

    Donnie Walsh: Why, on the first day of free agency, after a significant trade by the Knicks, do you care what one person’s opinion of Carmelo Anthony is? Why do they need to be “vanquished”? Can’t you start your own blog with Anthony’s efficiency stats reported everyday, and let the knickerbloggers talk peacefully amongst ourselves?

    There were 25 Melo posts on this thread before I posted anything about Melo, and per usual, after a couple of my posts, the troll is dead — vanquished–and we’re back to originally scheduled programming.

    See how that works?

    Think of it as a service.

  171. Brian Cronin

    Why, on the first day of free agency, after a significant trade by the Knicks, do you care what one person’s opinion of Carmelo Anthony is? Why do they need to be “vanquished”? Can’t you start your own blog with Anthony’s efficiency stats reported everyday, and let the knickerbloggers talk peacefully amongst ourselves?

    I dunno, bob specifically made it about Melo, no?

    I mean, obviously, I agree that these discussions are not fun, but if some other poster wants to get into it about Melo, then I dunno why ruru shouldn’t respond if he’d like.

  172. ruruland

    hoolahoop:
    That’s a 41-45 win team – at best.

    Ok, explain why that would be a 41 win team, and why last year’s team won 54 games.

    Go:

  173. ruruland

    Brian Cronin: I dunno, bob specifically made it about Melo, no?

    I mean, obviously, I agree that these discussions are not fun, but if some other poster wants to get into it about Melo, then I dunno why ruru shouldn’t get into it if he’d like.

    Trust me, I don’t want to talk about the same Melo stuff anymore either. It’s stale for everyone. Either they choose to be uninformed or they move on and accept that the Melo topic is pretty nuanced and not worth going back into without some new perspective or information.

  174. bidiong

    The Knicks week have it a little tougher next year, but hopefully they don’t get but by the injury bug so bad and they win 55 to 60 games.

  175. Zanzibar

    ruruland: That’s a great bench. Obviously it’ll likely be Hardaway taking a big part of JR’s role if JR leaves, but I wonder how he makes rotation if JR returns. I’m sure Leslie gets stashed.

    Sorry the players at the start of the list are the ones already under contract. We might lure Delfino by giving him JR’s role as a backup SG and we wouldn’t have JR’s contract bleeding into 2015 and 2016 seasons. I prefer Brand to KMart – he’s younger, much better on offense, ranked quite high in the Dwight Effect Study, and wouldn’t be a potential locker room disruption.

    Hey I’m making a pathetic attempt to steer discussion away from Melo!

  176. hoolahoop

    ruruland: Like I said a few months ago, my ideal starting lineup next year would be: Prigs, Shump, Melo, Amar’e, Chandler.

    ruruland: Ok, explain why that would be a 41 win team, and why last year’s team won 54 games.

    Go:

    For starters (no pun intended), I like PP’s game a lot. He’s one of the smartest PG’s in the game. He plays the role as it should be played.
    But, let’s be realistic. He’s physically inferior to many of the uber-athletic guys on the floor, often leading to bouts of playing with no confidence. He can be very ineffectual when left on the floor too long in those situations.
    Off the bench, he’s great. But, at best, you’re not going to be much better than a .500 team if he’s your starting PG.

    Shump, another guy I like a lot. But, again, as a starting 2guard he’s not top shelf material. He plays hard, he’s home grown, he’s funny, but c’mon, he’s going to have to bring it to the next level to help this team be a consistent winner or serious contender.

    And I haven’t even started on the Melo/Amare lack of chemistry factor, the Me-Ball Melo offense, and the MIA TC of two seasons ago.
    I’m not trolling. This is my team, but I’m too old and seen too much to be duped that this team is going to go deep in the playoffs with that squad.

  177. DRed

    Goose:
    Stats can only be analyzed by intelligent people. You can’t look at TS% without usage rate. Copeland was in and out of the rotation, and was usually open when he shot due to teams not knowing who he was.

    Copeland’s usage rate was 25.3. Bargnani’s career usage rate is 24.1.

  178. hoolahoop

    What are you smoking?

    bidiong:
    TheKnicks week have it alittle tougher next year,but hopefully they don’t get but by the injury bug so bad and theywin 55to 60 games.

  179. ruruland

    Zanzibar: Sorry the players at the start of the list are the ones already under contract. We might lure Delfino by giving him JR’s role as a backup SG and we wouldn’t have JR’s contract bleeding into 2015 and 2016 seasons. I prefer Brand to KMart – he’s younger, much better on offense, ranked quite high in the Dwight Effect Study, and wouldn’t be a potential locker room disruption.

    Hey I’m making a pathetic attempt to steer discussion away from Melo!

    Brand is a rim protector actually, with his length, and might have been more important to Philly’s defense than Iggy was. Obviously he has declined quite a bit, but pick and pop bigs that are good rebounders and defenders should always have value — he’d certainly be a superior version of Kurt Thomas and you could argue he’s better than Kmart.

    Delfino would obviously be a huge get, and he does everything JR does well without the false allure of self-created shot game, though Delfino did a lot more of that in Houston than anywhere else.

    A Euro 4-out player with his toughness, hard to imagine a better, fit but have to think he’d be coveted beyond full mini-mle, even.

  180. bidiong

    Nothing. You’re being pessimistic for the Hell of it. Why even waste the time? They can improve on last year.

  181. DRed

    ruruland: Trust me, I don’t want to talk about the same Melo stuff anymore either. It’s stale for everyone. Either they choose to be uninformed or they move on and accept that the Melo topic is pretty nuanced and not worth going back into without some new perspective or information.

    Let’s talk about turnover rate then. The formula is (TO x 100)/ FGA +(FTA * 44) + TOs

    Let’s imagine two players. Both get the ball 10 times. Both turn it over twice. Player A takes 8 shots. Player B gets 8 assists. Player B is going to have a much higher turnover rate. Does this mean Player A is a much better ballhandler?

  182. jon abbey

    Brand would be a nice backup big man, both him and K-Mart would be even better. NY has a lot of roster spots to fill, the more of those guys that can actually play, the better.

  183. GHenman

    Anyone know why we wouldn’t have offered Cope a two year contract with a second year team option?

  184. ruruland

    hoolahoop:
    For starters (no pun intended),I like PP’s game a lot. He’s one of the smartest PG’s in the game. He plays the role as it should be played.
    But, let’s be realistic. He’s physically inferior to many of the uber-athletic guys on the floor, often leading to bouts of playing with no confidence. He can be very ineffectual when left on the floor too long in those situations.
    Off the bench, he’s great. But, at best, you’re not going to be much better than a .500 team if he’s your starting PG.

    Shump, another guy I like a lot. But, again, as a starting 2guard he’s not top shelf material. He plays hard, he’s home grown, he’s funny, but c’mon, he’s going to have to bring it to the next level to help this team be a consistent winner or serious contender.

    And I haven’t even started on the Melo/Amare lack of chemistry factor, the Me-Ball Melo offense, and the MIA TC of two seasons ago.

    These are criticisms, certainly valid in some respects, but they do nothing to address fact that the Knicks won 54 games last season with what on paper could be a less talented team than next year’s, missing half a year from Shumpert, getting 25 games from Amar’e, less than 70 games from Chandler, Felton and Melo, not playing a true backup big man for more than half the season, and not fully integrating Cope and Prigs into the rotation until late in the year.

    How are the Knicks likely to win 13 fewer games next year when they are likely to have a basic semblance of last year’s team?

    Novak and Kidd worth 13 wins above their replacements?

    You’ve yet to make an actual argument.

  185. ruruland

    DRed: Let’s talk about turnover rate then.The formula is (TO x 100)/ FGA +(FTA * 44) + TOs

    Let’s imagine two players.Both get the ball 10 times.Both turn it over twice.Player A takes 8 shots.Player B gets 8 assists.Player B is going to have a much higher turnover rate.Does this mean Player A is a much better ballhandler?

    If that is your argument, then Melo is actually a really good passer.

    You cannot have it both ways. If you disclude turnovers as part of the scoring aspect of offense and instead use it as a way to analyze passing, then all of a sudden Melo’s passing becomes much better.

    Naturally neither method of analysis actual reveals much or provide any insights into what the two players do on the court.

    Harden handles the ball out near the top of the key, Melo posts defenders up and makes pass from double teams and tilts closer to the basket.

  186. ruruland

    DRed: Let’s talk about turnover rate then.The formula is (TO x 100)/ FGA +(FTA * 44) + TOs

    Let’s imagine two players.Both get the ball 10 times.Both turn it over twice.Player A takes 8 shots.Player B gets 8 assists.Player B is going to have a much higher turnover rate.Does this mean Player A is a much better ballhandler?

    Neither stat is actually capturing ballhandling at all, either. It’s just capturing the end result of the ball leaving a player’s hand, discluding every action that takes place if a pass made to a player does not result in an immediate shot ( though assists are gamed all the time) ….

    Marbury was great at racking up assists and had a pretty low to % rates, did that make him a great passer and ballahndler? How important are those two aspects of the game if they are not conjoined with decision-making and the analysis of the play after the pass that doesn’t result in an immediate shot attempt.

  187. jon abbey

    again, NY has like half a team in place, 7 or 8 guys:

    Melo
    Amar’e
    Chandler
    Bargnani
    Felton
    Shumpert
    Hardaway
    Leslie (likely)

    can we wait to make projections until we see more of the roster? JR especially is still an important part IMO, he would be hard to replace (keep your bad shooting jokes to yourself, thanks).

  188. Zanzibar

    jon abbey:
    Brand would be a nice backup big man, both him and K-Mart would be even better. NY has a lot of roster spots to fill, the more of those guys that can actually play, the better.

    Makes sense but is it really practical? These players will likely have other options so the team will need to be present a clear and compelling vision on how it intends to use them. In Brand’s case, we want him to give us 15-20 minutes of quality play as Chandler’s primary backup. Additionally, we may play Tyson and Brand simultaneously, especially against teams like Pacers and Bulls. Would Brand want to sign if he knew KMart was also on the roster? Would KMart accept being the 3rd option?

  189. DRed

    ruruland: If that is your argument, then Melo is actually a really good passer.

    You cannot have it both ways. If you disclude turnovers as part of the scoring aspect of offense and instead use it as a way to analyze passing, then all of a sudden Melo’s passing becomes much better.

    Naturally neither method of analysis actual reveals much or provide any insights into what the two players do on the court.

    Harden handles the ball out near the top of the key, Melo posts defenders up and makes pass from double teams and tilts closer to the basket.

    Disclude?

  190. jon abbey

    Zanzibar: Makes sense but is it really practical? These players will likely have other options so the team will need to be present a clear and compelling vision on how it intends to use them. In Brand’s case, we want him to give us 15-20 minutes of quality play as Chandler’s primary backup. Additionally, we may play Tyson and Brand simultaneously, especially against teams like Pacers and Bulls. Would Brand want to sign if he knew KMart was also on the roster? Would KMart accept being the 3rd option?

    guys are rarely all healthy at the same time, it’s a lot more likely that 2 of 3 of those guys would be available most games than it is 2 of 2. obviously many guys will have other options, but it’s up to Grunwald and Leon Rose and CAA to pack that bench with helpful guys on small deals, whatever it takes.

  191. Brian Cronin

    Yeah, it is still way too early to predict this team since there is so much up in the air still. JR is just such a huge piece that what he decides will be major.

  192. jon abbey

    Brian Cronin:
    Yeah, it is still way too early to predict this team since there is so much up in the air still. JR is just such a huge piece that what he decides will be major.

    yep, just like last year. live (regular season) and die (playoffs) by kooky JR.

  193. AvonBarksdale

    The coach didnt try to utilize Novak or Camby when they were healthy anyway, coach had to have some influence on this trade no doubt, I don’t think coach Woodson has control anymore and that’s why we will be slightly worse regular season in terms of consistent effort and defensive intensity, I’m shocked Pablo wants back on ny but I believe that’s his family not entirely basketball related..new York can be charming even if your coach is retarded plus now Jason Kidd is gone so more playing time! Either way this trade is only as good as coach Woodson is at utilizing it which I can’t see him doing to full potential. Earl Barron looked good, what’s his deal and why haven’t I heard about us resigning k-mart yet ? He showed up to play Every game unlike chandler and his fluneck

  194. DRed

    ruruland: If that is your argument, then Melo is actually a really good passer.

    You cannot have it both ways. If you disclude turnovers as part of the scoring aspect of offense and instead use it as a way to analyze passing, then all of a sudden Melo’s passing becomes much better.

    Naturally neither method of analysis actual reveals much or provide any insights into what the two players do on the court.

    Harden handles the ball out near the top of the key, Melo posts defenders up and makes pass from double teams and tilts closer to the basket.

    I have no idea what you’re trying to say. If you exclude turnovers, Melo’s passing looks better? Why were you bringing up Melo’s turnover percentage if that stat doesn’t reveal much?

  195. bidiong

    So does anyone think Amarè starts next year? I think he should, but will Woodson do it?

  196. massive

    After watching as much tape as possible on Bargs, I think he’s going to be our starting 4 on opening day if healthy. He’s a good P&P player, he can hit the open jumper, he’s actually a really underrated passer, and (probably the most important part) he will get himself open after the offense fails. You know how guys usually look at Melo late in the shot clock and expect him to make magic? Bargs will flash to the hoop to get himself either in post position or to get an easy lay-up. One big reason Bargs was terrible on offense is because his teammates did to him what Melo’s do to him: they isolate him on one side of the court and get him in one on one situations with the defender and expect him to create for himself. I’m willing to believe his efficiency will jump into the 560s as a Knick. His rebounding is a different story, though. He appears to dislike jumping, but in interviews he has spoken about needing to improve on the defensive end. I’m buying that this will be a steal. I’m confident that our system and coach will use him properly.

  197. Brian Cronin

    “It was fun while it lasted” kind of says it all in my opinion.

    Did that sound bad? Of course. Could JR be a big enough weirdo that he’d mess with people to make them think he was leaving and then not actually leave? I think yes.

  198. Brian Cronin

    Wow, big for the Nets. They got Blatche to sign another one year deal for the minimum raise. Dang. I mean, just like with JR, there is almost certainly an under-the-table understanding that he will be re-signed to the Early Bird extension next year, but still, dang.

  199. jon abbey

    Brian Cronin:
    Wow, big for the Nets. They got Blatche to sign another one year deal for the minimum raise. Dang. I mean, just like with JR, there is almost certainly an under-the-table understanding that he will be re-signed to the Early Bird extension next year, but still, dang.

    the difference with Blatche is that he is still being paid a ton by the Wizards, and I believe even if he signed for more elsewhere, it’d just be subtracted from what the Wiz owe him, so same end result for him.

  200. Brian Cronin

    I don’t believe so, Jon. I mean, yes, it is true that he is still getting paid from the Wizards ($15 million for the next two years – dang!), so yes, that definitely impacts his decision to take less money and that’s a very good point on your part (and very fortuitous for the Nets), but I don’t believe his current Nets contract has anything to do with his Wizards contract, since the Nets did not claim him on amnesty waivers. He passed through amnesty waivers. The Nets signed him as a free agent. Actually, in the history of amnesty waivers, only Chauncey Billups, Travis Outlaw, Elton Brand, Brandon Haywood and Luis Scola were actually claimed on amnesty waivers. Everyone else made it to free agency. So anything Blatche gets now is his, free and clear.

  201. Brian Cronin

    Ah, gotcha. So yeah, Blatche doesn’t get any financial benefit out of taking less money, but he gets to screw with the Wizards (who he hates) more by taking less money. That’s actually kind of hilarious.

  202. Dune

    As a Knicks fan for 40+ years, I’m so upset about the way this team has been run the last 12 years. As long as ownership shows they care, tries to put a winning team on the floor and also looks to the future I can support the team.

    But Dolan and his team just don’t get it. This team is not winning a championship. So instead of starting to plan for the future and make good deals they do the opposite.

    Portland getting Thomas for 2 second round picks is a great deal. If they can help him work through his issues they just stole a top 5 lottery pick for 2 2nd round picks. That is foresight.

    I have no issue dealing Camby and Novack. But everyone knows Toronto was desperate to move Bargs. But the knicks still gave up a 1st rnd pick and 2 second round picks. The league needs to step in and stop the Knicks from hurting themselves.

    We had Donnie and things were looking up. But then Dolan traded away all our depth for Melo. Melo us great, but the Knicks should have waited too get him in free agency. Why can’t the Knicks hire a good GM??? The Knicks used to be a good franchise. Now they are a joke.
    No question the Nets will own NY for the next 2 years. I hope and pray the league either takes the team away from Dolan or sits him down and tells him to hire good people and let them run the team.

    We can’t take much more of this. I grew up a Knicks fan, but I’m so frustrated that I’m on the verge of hating them. I don’t care about winning a championship, I just want a them to be good today and know they will be good in the future. But no 1st rounder in 2 of the next 4 years is to much.

  203. Brian Cronin

    ESPN had a great article today about how Dwight Howard’s ideal offense doesn’t actually exist. I swear, the guy is such a fucking tool. He wants teams to cater themselves to him when he might not even be fully healthy. But sure, fair enough, he’s the free agent so he certainly gets to dictate terms. But his terms are moronic. How is a team built around him and James Harden any better for him than a team with a healthy Kobe Bryant? Or the Mavericks with Dirk? What does he think he is getting? If you’re the Rockets, why would you want to take the ball out of Harden’s hands? if you’re the Lakers, why would you want to take the ball out of Kobe’s hands? Same with the Mavs and Dirk. What is Howard looking for exactly? I am not saying that the Rockets aren’t a better bet than the Lakers, because heck, they probably are because of Harden and Parsons’ youth, but the system sure doesn’t seem to be any better for Howard than LA. The dude somehow wants to be the focal point of the offense without being the focal point of the offense. It is just staggeringly dumb.

  204. CaptainB

    If he’s healthy and playing about 20 min a game, AB seems, at least offensively, capable of things Novak couldnt even ponder doing. He may not be as anywhere near a good shooter, but he has ability to have games where he can finish around the rim and have a more diverse game.

  205. Nick C.

    CaptainB:
    If he’s healthy and playing about 20 min a game, AB seems, at least offensively, capable of things Novak couldnt even ponder doing.He may not be as anywhere near a good shooter, but he has ability to have games where he can finish around the rim and have a more diverse game.

    That’s not untrue, but it also sounds like a description of Jamal Crawford with the Knicks. I’d prefer someone who is at least good at one thing to someone who is mediocre at best at many. But whatever this team is on and endless re-boot and clear out for the next as the next crop of FAs cycle, whoopee.

  206. Z-man

    Nick C.: That’s not untrue, but it also sounds like a description of Jamal Crawford with the Knicks. I’d prefer someone who is at least good at one thing to someone who is mediocre at best at many. But whatever this team is on and endless re-boot and clear out for the next as the next crop of FAs cycle, whoopee.

    I don’t see it this way, once LeBron went to MIA, every team in the league became underdogs and therefore on a constant reboot. We could have gone about it differently, e.g. not made the Amare or Melo deals, etc, but doubtful that we’d have a better team right now, or that we’d be better positioned for 2015-15 and beyond except for draft picks, some of which we might get back come expiring contract time next year.

  207. bob cook

    Here are some optimistic thoughts. Clearly Novak and Camby contribute nothing. What I remember about AB was when we’d lose to Toronto because of him having a big game. He’s an upgrade now. Future draft choice are…in the future. Now then, we lost to Indiana in a close series with no AB, no STAT and no Chandler. Whoever was playing center in that series was an actor pretending to be Chandler. If these 3 guys are healthy come playoff time, we have a great chance to win now. I think too many on the forum have given up on STAT. Before his second debridgement (whatever that is) he was looking great with his Olijawonese post game. He’s a high character man and will make a big difference if we can get him out there.

  208. Nick C.

    Z-man: I don’t see it this way, once LeBron went to MIA, every team in the league became underdogs and therefore on a constant reboot. We could have gone about it differently, e.g. not made the Amare or Melo deals, etc, but doubtful that we’d have a better team right now, or that we’d be better positioned for 2015-15 and beyond except for draft picks, some of which we might get back come expiring contract time next year.

    Indy doesn’t seem to be. Chicago, to the extent that they aren’t run into the ground doesn’t seem to be. OKC, probably isn’t. Brooklyn is in some bizarroworld. I just think a better method is to add young players rather than guys that are or will soon be shot and need to be replaced in three months to two years. I seem to be in the minority.

  209. er

    Nick C.: Indy doesn’t seem to be.Chicago, to the extent that they aren’t run into the ground doesn’t seem to be. OKC, probably isn’t. Brooklyn is in some bizarroworld. I just think a better method is to add young players rather than guys that are or will soon be shot and need to be replaced in three months to two years. I seem to be in the minority.

    Chicago also won the lottery after barely finishing in 9th place

  210. er

    Nick C.: Indy doesn’t seem to be.Chicago, to the extent that they aren’t run into the ground doesn’t seem to be. OKC, probably isn’t. Brooklyn is in some bizarroworld. I just think a better method is to add young players rather than guys that are or will soon be shot and need to be replaced in three months to two years. I seem to be in the minority.

    OKC had 4 top 5 picks in a row…..unless you do this, and have success ie Rose, Durant , Westbrook, Harden. All you can do is try to rebuild through FA. Idk where the hell you think this magic elixir is supposed to come from.

  211. Nick C.

    Er, that was what 5 years ago? This will be like the third “clear out” cap space in 4-5 years. At any rate wasn’t the whole point behind getting Melo (or Amare or Tyson) so the Knicks could have their centerpiece or magic elixir as you put it?
    I note you ignored Indiana which may or may not have been fluky or just good due to some random whim in officiating.

  212. er

    Nick C.:
    Er, that was what 5 years ago? This will be like the third “clear out” cap space in 4-5 years. At any rate wasn’t the whole point behind getting Melo (or Amare or Tyson) so the Knicks could have their centerpiece or magic elixir as you put it?
    I note you ignored Indiana which may or may not have been fluky or just good due to some random whim in officiating.

    Indiana won 49 games. They just got alot better during the playoffs which is fine. If you look at PG and Hibberts stats they played outta their minds in the post season. Regardless Indy is a tough team. Regarding the Knicks, Injuries have derailed them literally every postseason since melo has been here so centerpiece or not you need a healthy team

  213. er

    Nick C.:
    Er, that was what 5 years ago? This will be like the third “clear out” cap space in 4-5 years. At any rate wasn’t the whole point behind getting Melo (or Amare or Tyson) so the Knicks could have their centerpiece or magic elixir as you put it?
    I note you ignored Indiana which may or may not have been fluky or just good due to some random whim in officiating.

    Also they seem to have a few non lottery picks who have kinda panned out in PG, Stevenson, and Hibbert(i think he was non lottery, im too lazy to look)

  214. GHenman

    New York teams rarely have the patience to build through the draft because of the crosstown rivalries and media pressure. The Knicks will always be in win now mode in my opinion.

  215. Clyde_10

    Since to clock ran out on this season I have been promoting the idea that the Knicks need to position themselbves for the future by moving Tyson Chandler in a trade. I suggested they speak to Cleveland about Varejo and CJ Miles,speak to Portland about LaMarcus Aldridge,and stop trading draft choices. There must be a plan in place that Melo can believe in,or I think he might opt out. So what’s the plan? Dump salaries and get picks. There is no way to put a championship team together by adding fringe players to this roster. I can only hope that this Toronto trade is part of a bigger plan. BTW that first round pick was already a swap-out so no big loss,the two second rounders is just ridiculous over paying!

  216. Ted Nelson

    Just about every decision you make in life is about uncertainty and probabilities.

    That said, you are taking huge logical leaps to come up with ownership’s motivation. The timing of the move after the Nets move could as easily be a coincidence as reactionary. It’s silly to pretend you know unless there is a really tangible piece of evidence. At least in the Igawa case it was another Japanese P who Torre and Cashman are said to have asked what pitches he threw when he reported. The *probability* that it was reactionary is reasonably high. The Nets made a basketball trade in the offseason when things started to heat up and the Knicks made a basketball trade shortly thereafter. *Probably* not reactionary. Could be. But there’s not much evidence.

    It’s a huge generalization to talk about bench players and first rounders. If the bench player in Manu in his prime and the pick is, say, #30… you make the trade every time. The trade comes down to the Knicks evaluation of Bargnani going forward. The complexity that comes with judging process in trades is that different people will believe the probabilities are stacked differently. To be very overly simplistic, I might say there is a 65% chance Bargnani is good and you might say there is a 35% chance. A pick is a little more straight forward because you can value it on historical results, though who is drafting, draft class strength, and where the pick will fall are up for debate. We will come to wildly different conclusions about whether Bargnani is worth a 1st because our inputs are different. Unless you interview everyone involved and get an honest answer, you sort of have to rely a bit on results over a large enough sample to judge a GM. Not just results, but process is pretty unreliable itself. Did the GM get lucky or see something others didn’t?

    I am not sticking up for Knicks’ ownership, by the way. Just thought the analysis would be stronger after a nice start with the uncertainty stuff.

  217. Ted Nelson

    In short, I don’t think the process behind the article was very good.

    Also, I think you are twisting the facts a little to confirm your hypothesis. I believe that Denver has the right to switch picks that year, so it’s not just the Knicks that have to stink. What stats are you looking at to see if Bargnani can stretch the D? He’s been a #1 or 2 offensive option a lot of his career, so his career 3pt% isn’t necessarily indicative of his ability to hit open 3s. There is definitely an argument for Bargnani improving this team that you are choosing to ignore and pretending doesn’t exist. You can disagree with it (which is you assigning probabilities to different outcomes, a subjective rather than objective thing), but it’s a disservice to the reader and yourself to ignore it. There are two sides of the story, but you are acting as if there is one. I know it’s the journalistic way, but I had higher hopes for an article that started out so promisingly.

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