Marc Berman of the NY Post reports:
It doesn’t mean the Knicks will pick him if he falls to No. 8 in the NBA Draft, but Killian Hayes currently has a narrow edge as the team’s second point guard on the board after LaMelo Ball, according to NBA sources.
Hayes, the 19-year-old left-hander who played in Germany last season, is considered to have a more supreme skill set than the other lottery-projected point guards such as Tyrese Haliburton, Kira Lewis, Cole Anthony, RJ Hampton, Theo Maledon and Tyrese Maxey.
It should be noted the NBA has just relaxed player workout rules, allowing allowing 4 1/2-hour in-person workouts/interviews/medical evaluations, so a turn of affairs can still be in order before Nov. 18. Four team officials are permitted at a Hayes workout.
The Knicks had gone into last season with an eye on drafting a point guard of the future but they are not stuck on that idea since president Leon Rose took charge in March. For instance, if forward Obi Toppin falls to No. 8, they certainly would pounce. Small forward Isaac Okoro also has intrigue.
Hayes has agreed to do a limited number of private, in-person workouts with one team. The Knicks probably will be granted an audience, according to a source.
A live, in-person workout for Hayes is considered important since he didn’t benefit from the exposure of the NCAA.
I’d be fine with Hayes. I like the idea of trading down more, though.
75 replies on “NY Post: Knicks favor Killian Hayes as second NBA Draft point guard after LaMelo Ball”
The Knicks have to make a decision about PG. I am sure that none of Ntilikina, Smith Jr. and Barrett are the answer. Is it that #8 pick or is it a FA? In order to get good fast, I would rather sign an experienced FA. That’s why I’m more inclined to sign VanVleet and not go for a rookie at that spot.
Did anyone see this? Apparently if JVG becomes the Rockets’ coach, Miller is likely to be his lead assistant.
I really can’t believe JVG is considering a coaching job, especially one with sky-high expectations and no real upside.
I had that same reaction, but Early Bird convinced me that the blame will all fall on Westbrook and Harden, so it’s actually a surprisingly low pressure gig for JVG.
JVG lives in Houston right? That alone has to make it highly palatable.
I often think about how family life works for a coach. I feel like asking your spouse to move cross country at 60 must be such a hard sell.
I just don’t know if Hayes is a good fit with RJ either.
The more I really think about it, the more I think Riller might be RJ’s perfect backcourt partner. His ability to get to the rim is needed next to RJ, and RJ’s abilities in the pick and roll would take that pressure off Riller. Plus, maybe you can get him at 27 or with I minor trade up from there.
At number 8, maybe Toppin is a good fit? Otherwise, maybe Pat Williams or Bey in a trade down.
As such, I’d also pass on VanVleet. Honestly, the only FA I’d take a flier on is Ingram. Offer him the max and hope he continues to grow into a bigger role. He’s only 23. If he stays, at least you made the Pels less flexible in the future, and maybe Zion decides to test the market.
I would like to see Gallo back, if at a reasonable price. Given his age, injury concerns (he always is in and out from some mild injury), Giannis being available in 2021 and looming cap projections (although I guess they will keep the cap artificially high somehow), teams might be shy to sign him. And tall guys with good shooting that do not rely on athleticism or strength to get his shot usually last for long in the league. At 10-15 million he might become a hot commodity once some teams realize they need more shooting. He does not fit the win curve, but even if we keep him he will last enough to be useful when in two years RJ Barrett and Mitch Robinson are destroying the league (I might have gone wildly optimistic here). I guess some team will offer him around 20-25 million and then we should stay away, but it would be nice to have him back.
About PGs, no to Rondo, no to giving assets for CP3, and I somehow dislike VanVleet. VanVleet’s numbers are good, I guess, but when I see him I see more of a streaky shooter than the steady playmaker that we need. And I know that, if somehow the Knicks get him, he will become irreversibly cold from distance and a mediocre shooter (this will not happen if goes to any other team). I would rather draft a PG, keep Payton and run with it.
Talking about the draft, Haliburton has good numbers, reasonable size and is just a sophomore. I think having a weird shooting motion is the lesser red flags of all the prospects that will be available to us. I am completely ignorant about the draft, but I would be kind of disappointed if we can draft him and do not.
Hayes intrigues me. Toppin, much less so. Let’s hope that all the draft scuttlebutt about Toppin going early holds true, so we’re not even tempted.
Players I’ve convinced myself that we should draft at some point.
This is the same list of players that I’ve convinced myself at some point we shouldn’t draft.
The only mock drafts I like are the ones where Toppin gets picked in front of us.
Whenever he goes in front of us, we end up with either Hayes, Halliburton, or Okoro. I like the first two and can be talked into Okoro even he can’t shoot.
Whenever Toppin doesn’t go in front of us, we end up with him or one the wings who are not much better than the wings that are available 8 picks later.
Analytics will never be taken seriously until they can accurately evaluate the supreme-ness of various skillsets.
I don’t know if other people have been following Partnow’s player ranking series over at the athletic but I thought this was an interesting tidbit on Van Vleet:
I love that Suns trade, btw, but it’s incomplete. I think Oubre can be flipped for another good pick.
I see Boston (at 14), Minnesota (at 17), and Brooklyn (at 19) as teams that would rather have Oubre than their pick. Maybe even Orlando at 15.
San Antonio, Sacramento, and New Orleans (at 11, 12, or 13, respectively) might consider Oubre, too, if you sweetened it with the 27th pick.
I’d zero in on Boston and try to come out of this draft with Patrick Williams at 10 and Aaron Nesmith at 14.
Ooooh. Hubert! I like that idea! Make that trade with the Suns and then trade Oubre to another team for an additional pick.
Come away with #10, #14…then use Clips pick and second rounder to move up to like #19 or #20?
If we could come away with 3 picks in the 10 to 20 range, that might be the best outcome.
You can’t be drafting guys based on their hypothetical fit with a 20 year old who was awful last season on a bad team
Agreed…totally crap roster…draft BPA…
Thank you, someone had to say it! This team is, as always, incredibly talent-poor. There’s absolutely no reason to worry about any draftee fitting next to anyone currently on the team because everyone currently on the team, except for Mitch, sucks and could easily suck for their whole careers.
Okay then, so just take the best player available based on one half a college season… or 12 semipro games… or 3 college games… should be easy, right?
And if RJ is so bad (I never wanted him), they’ll probably just trade him, right?
I mean, there may be certain situations in which accounting for fit is sensible, but how could anyone in their right mind argue that the Knicks’ situation, and specifically as it relates to RJ Barrett of the -4.3 BPM, is one of them?
It’s totally reasonable to have hope for Barrett, I would say I do, but that’s a far cry from accounting for him when making a lottery pick.
The top picks are going to be virtually random, i.e. decisions made by 140-point-system developers. I love it. This is a great draft to pick eighth.
Yeah, that word choice took me aback, as well. Why not just say “elite”?
Analytics will find earnest consequence sparse until they can unambiguously appraise the paramountcy of prevailing round-ball prowesses and delineate a lucid strata of skill genera and technical adroitness. Only at that precise moment may we commence to contemplate their contemporary relevance and usage with any measure of sobriety.
I’d be pretty happy to come away with Killian, but I’d be a bit worried if we really like Toppin that much
as it relates to sobriety and the knicks draft and overall management….”god…grant me the serenity…to accept the things I cannot change, the courage to change the things I can and the wisdom to know the difference”….
Pelicans hiring Stan Van Gundy. It’s entirely possible at this point that 1)Both Van Gundy brothers will be back in coaching, and in the same division; and 2)This year’s game of coaching musical chairs will stop without either D’Antoni and Atkinson landing a HC job. Huh.
I briefly blanked on Stan Van Gundy’s time in Orlando, so I was wondering, “Wait, why is Stan Van Gundy popular as a coaching candidate?” But then I remembered his Orlando time, which is still his biggest selling point.
SVG and Thibs can blame their recent failures on their GMs
if Atkinson doesn’t get a HC job I wonder if he’d be willing to be our lead assistant in charge of modern offense
Pels should have done what the Pacers did…up and coming young guy…not tired ol’stan van gundy…surprised griffin went that route…
The best thing for Van Gundy’s legacy was Dwight Howard telling the Magic to fire Van Gundy and then asking for a trade anyways once they fired Van Gundy. It made it so that Van Gundy never had a bad season in Orlando. And it doesn’t hurt your rep at all if Dwight Howard doesn’t like you, because no one likes Dwight Howard.
Insert “Knicks” for “Pels”, “Thibs” for “Stan Van Gundy” and “Rose” for “Griffin”
agree with the first two but not the last….I don’t think anyone was suprised Rose went with what would appear to be the “safe” choice…he hasn’t shown any out of the box thinking yet…
Yeah I’m pretty surprised that it looks like D’Antoni is going to find himself without a seat when the music stops. I think there’s a perception that his revolution has been fully internalized by the whole league but it was only four years ago the he got coach of the year for completely revamping the Rockets. And given his age I think he’d feel some urgency to get back out there if he still wants to coach.
I think the Doc firing just blew things up, as D’Antoni had the Sixers gig and likely turned the other ones down. Then Doc was surprisingly fired and the Sixers pulled their offer to D’Antoni.
I am very surprised that SVG got the Pels gig. I think SVG is a fine coach, but I just don’t like the fit there for him. Maybe OKC or Indy..hell even Houston. If u ask me, Brooks should be out in DC, with SVG replacing him. I really think MDA would have made Zion & co stupid exciting to watch. I am intrigued by Indy’s hire though. I know it’s a copycat league, but is Bjorkgren really that good? Or is he getting this love strictly from being a Nick Nurse guy? Depending on what they do with Oladipo and Turner, he’s gonna make that team really interesting if he can apply what they did in Toronto there.
1. I thought Stan Van Gundy did a very good job in Orlando spacing the floor around a peak Howard. I thought he did a terrible job in Detroit in every way imaginable. Can anyone think of anything he did in Detroit in any capacity that was a very good idea? There must be something, but it seemed dominated by bad ideas and mediocre coaching. He’s one lucky guy to get that Pelicans job because surely there were better options than him available to coach that young rising team.
2. I like Jeff Van Gundy better. He seems far more knowledgeable. I’m not so sure I’d want that Houston job, but given he already lives there and seems anxious to get back into coaching, I don’t see too much downside. This will probably be his last coaching gig for as long as it lasts anyway and then he’ll be back in the booth. He might as well have some fun coaching a winning team even if they are poorly constructed and probably on the downside.
3. I think this season hurt D’Antoni a LOT. Before this season he’s had injury/suspension excuses in both Phoenix and Houston. Then the Warriors were successful, but that was a once in a 100 year storm of 3 of the greatest shooters of all time that also defended and played team ball. The truth is his style is flawed for the playoffs and he’s not a good in game coach with adjustments. This year they went “all in” on his ideas and failed miserably to a bigger team that exposed his strategy. That hurt him. I’ve always been a huge fan of his because I think he was way ahead of his time and he’s genuinely a very liable guy with a good sense of humor, but he’s not an elite overall coach. Granted, there are very few of those, but it doesn’t shock me that when the music stopped there wasn’t a seat for him. He should go work with Nash.
It would be funny if after all these rumors we just made our picks where they are and then brought back some of the vets and stayed pat. I wouldn’t hate that at all.
This is just a general comment.
People often operate on the assumption that their own metrics or opinions of draft eligible players are accurate appraisals of who the best player available is at any point in the draft. That’s nonsense. The reality is more like there are categories of players (like As, Bs, Cs) and it’s a total crapshoot within each category. There may be some exceptions if an organization has some rare specialized knowledge that allows them to find true value here or there, but in most cases (the Knicks being the classic exception) some the best minds in basketball have more data and info than any of us and are still just throwing darts at a board within some group. Some get lucky (some more than once) and people think they are smart and vice versa.
So when you already have a player at one position that you feel good about and you are looking at all the “Bs”, any thought that you can actually separate them well is probably delusional unless you think the player is actually an “A”. So going with fit or need within some category makes perfect sense.
Other than that, I think RJ is almost certainly going to be a very good player no matter what idiotic boxscore models say about last season when he played under horrible conditions given his specific skillset. The only debate is whether he can become a legit #2 option or better or just a very solid multi skilled 3rd option.
Deefense…I agree with you to some degree.
Someone made a comment on P and T today about how Topping was just another Derrick Williams or Michael Beasley.
But like if Michael Beasley wasn’t a head case and worked on his game as hard as Jimmy Butler did, he probably would have been a perennial all-star.
Any basketball player talented enough to possibly get drafted in the top 25 of the draft is literally one of the most talented basketball players on the planet. Being able to determine who from each draft class will succeed and who will be a bust is extremely difficult. There are so many examples of late first round/second round picks, shorter players, slower players, etc…who end up being really good basketball players and make their teams look very smart post fact.
Every year there are players with all the tools who never amount to much.
The big thing no one talks about is how motivated will these kids be once they start making millions of dollars a year. I mean, when I was 20 years old even if I started making 6 figures a year I probably would have blown a lot of it on stupid shit.
ah, now we’re talking pepper…bill, bob and AA…
grew up exposed to all those slogans…always appreciated the serenity prayer the most…second favorite is maybe that: let go, let god saying…
back to basketball – yeah, of all the recent coaching hires I’m least thrilled with SVG to the pels…
probably makes as much sense as thibs coaching for the knicks…
I think the pacers approach would have been better for both the knicks and pels…
heard on tv d’antoni may go help out in brooklyn…
oh yeah, almost finished with season 2 of the boys, saw mother’s milk rocking a knicks t-shirt…
for some folks on the run – hughie and m.m.’s t-shirt game is hella strong…
A quick newsbreak to suggest that those of you who aren’t already following the story might appreciate googling “Borat Guliani.” The Newsweek story has a good pic.
Okay, back to basketball.
A mildly useful averaging of mock drafts in this twitter thread:
Hayes, Hali, and especially Wiseman are fairly polarized for top prospects.
I think you should take Hayes. Despite what Z-Man thinks (sorry Z-Man) he does not at all look like Frank. Hayes has a real smoothness to his game and PG level handle right out of the gate, which he shows off in spades running the pnr. He has a better FTR than LaMelo, but it’s still not amazing because he’s not an explosive athlete who gets to the rim at will. Again, he’s a smooth operator, choosing instead to make pinpoint passes to dive men with his superior size and vision or utilize what looks like a pretty well-developed floater game. He can still dunk, however, especially in transition. Right now, his biggest question marks are his medicore FTR, his mediocre 3pt% (29%), and as Z-Man harps on, his off-hand. But 3pt% (especially with his terrific free throw percentage) and off-hand are eminently fixable, and he’s still going to be a useful guard if he never becomes a good three point shooter, since he has a really great 2 point percentage (50 % each year), free throw percentage (88% this year), and plus passing. Defensively, from what I’ve seen he’s good for 1 or two steals a game and solid two position d. He’s not a play destroyer and gambles too much (has a high foul rate) but he’s solid. Basically, if he develops his ftr or his three pointer he’s instantly an NBA lead guard, and is likely to develop into a quality starter even if he doesn’t improve in those areas.
Hayes: 17pts/4 rebs/8 ast/2 stl/4.7 TO per 36; 4 fta per 36 at 88%; 29% 3pt % on 4.5 attempts per game (good volume at least…); 59 2pt % (!); 59 TS%; ATO of 1.7.
Frank: 11pts/4 rebounds/3 assists (yuck)/1.5 steals/1.7 TOV per 36; 2 FTA per 36 (lmao that’s Hali’s number); 49% 2pt %; 38% 3pt% on 3.5 per 36; 64% ft%; 54 TS%; 1.77 A/TO
They’re really not comparable. Hayes is legit and Frank screamed bust from the start (I was very wrong about Frank!)
And here is the github info with more in-depth info re: the average draft plotting
If Hayes and Haliburton are both on the board and the Knicks pick neither, I will die
Silky, rather than re-hash the whole Killian Hayes back-and-forth, I will simply say that I am always highly skeptical of PG candidates with a) lack of an off-hand b) unproven shooting AND c) non-elite athleticism and measurables. I disagree with your take that he has a PG-level handle right out of the gate. Every film analyst worth noting has raised questions about his handle, and in particular that he has absolutely NO handle going right. In fact, one analyst said that there wasn’t a single instance of him throwing a one-handed pass of any note with his right hand. D’lo also had a weak right hand but he did use it significantly more and better in college, and he was already a proven shooter in college (41% from 3 on high volume.)
As to his defense…there is not much evidence that he is anything more than a “project” on D in the vastly more athletic NBA. He will likely not get faster or quicker or jump higher, so you are betting on him becoming stronger and smarter to the point that it covers for his athletic deficiencies, or to become so good on offense that it matters less.
Sure, he can have a D’lo-like ceiling. But I also think that if even one of the things his proponents are banking on improving dramatically (shooting, PG-level ball-handling, TOV rate, FTrate) doesn’t, he becomes a mediocre player on both ends. That doesn’t make sense to me at #8.
And the comparison to Ntilikina isn’t about similarity of development or style. It was about projecting him as a PG. Frank actually has a HUGE advantage over Hayes…an enormous wingspan relative to his size and skillset. He doesn’t need to be a PG to be a terrific asset in the NBA at some point. He just has to continue improving his 3-pt shot and getting stronger to become an imposing 3-and-D wing who can blow up PnR schemes and lock down iso guards and SFs. Hayes strikes me as pure guard who might never be much of an asset on D despite his size.
As guards go, I would take Hali, Terry, Kira, and probably Maxey over him at #8.
This draft is so difficult from that Knicks point of view. I haven’t really loved anyone I’ve read about. The only guy I think is 100% going to be a useful NBA player is Wiseman, but he’s a center, and not only do we have Mitch, but centers are reasonably easy to come by. That said, if he falls to number 8, we should take him. Edwards seems to me a low efficiency athletic scorer, and so doesn’t interest me. LaMelo has potential, and I’d pick him if available, but he won’t be. That leaves lots of players with flaws. I buy Z-man’s take on Hayes. In my heart I like Haliburton, but that’s purely an emotional reaction, he has worries too.
This video fairly sums up my concerns about Hayes.
I also want to make clear that if we do pick Hayes, I will root like hell for him, as I have for Frank. Ironically, I’ve been more optimistic lately about Frank than most here. The question that looms large is: who is the most likely to out-perform their rookie deal. Frank was a terrible pick in that regard and always will be, but still may become an excellent player. Same with Knox. I fear the same will be true of several of this year’s lottery picks, including Hayes.
Haliburton worries me less. Getting physically stronger is one of the most correctable issues a young prospect can have (see: Kevin Durant, Brandon Ingram). He seems like a different-level high IQ/leadership guy. He can already shoot. He has great instincts. He’s not a sure thing, but far less risky relative to his rookie deal than Hayes.
Okoro also worries me less. He’s projecting as an elite defender and has some transferrable offensive skills, so while he’s different than Smart, I can see him being that valuable and fungible as an asset even without vast improvement in his shooting. Seems like a winning player.
Another guy I think deserves consideration is Precious Achiuwa. After Wiseman jumped ship, he became a monster player for Memphis and has a pretty promising skillset for a big wing/ small ball C. He also hails from the Bronx, like yours truly. Probably more of a trade-down target.
***If Hayes and Haliburton are both on the board and the Knicks pick neither, I will die***
Please don’t die.
(If it helps, I have looked into the future, and, though I can’t tell you who selects Hayes and Haliburton, I can tell you that both will be on the board at #8… and that if the Knicks pass them up, they will both become stars… but if the Knicks select them, they will both be scrubs.)
hayes is probably the best pg in the draft…. he’s put up the best numbers…. he has the most ball skills… put up the best shooting numbers and has ideal size and doesn’t have any issues with his shooting motion….
in this draft … he’s one of the best players.. and we better pick him if he’s there….
November 19, 2020, DW and THCJ, somewhere outside of Portland…
I think I’ve slowly come around to your points on Hayes, Z.
People (including me) were wowed by his massive improvements over the last year, but he might hit a wall after this because of his average athleticism and the off hand issue. I think he’s definitely a heady player, but that can only take you so far sometimes.
I’m coming back around to Vassell actually. The numbers are good, the athleticism is there, his team actually won (looking at you, Tyrese), and the shot is probably fixable.
And he will fit well with whatever star we pluck from the 2021 draft.
*** November 19, 2020, DW and THCJ, somewhere outside of Portland… ***
Somehow, without even knowing me, you knew to cast me as “the ugly”. Well done.
But that means that… Jowles is The Good of Knickerblogger Dot Net? I would have thought for sure that should be Farfa.
The Good is the perfect analog for Jowles…a deadeye gunslinger with a sardonic wit and a few redeeming features, but “good” only in comparison to outlaw gunslingers even more despicable than himself.
Farfa is more of the wise union captain, drunkenly resigned to his fate. Hopefully he won’t be on his deathbed when he hears Dolan’s stranglehold on the Knicks explode.
I think Farfa are the eyes behind the camera, capturing the beauty in the tradegy of the Knicks, 🙂
A 6’5″ PG with a 6’8″ wingspan strikes me as elite measurables. He may not have Frank’s 7’1″ wingspan, but unlike Frank he can actually play PG.
Don’t forget JKMorricone
That is exactly my view.
College stats are useful, but they are a snapshot in time that occurs many years before a player’s peak contribution.
A players intrinsic value is more a function of the player he’ll be in 3-4 years from now, not what he is now.
Not many of these kids are going to come in and move the needle immediately. The ones that do almost everyone knew were likely to become superstars. Among the rest, It’s the trajectory and extent of their improvement that matters most. That may be tough to predict, but IMHO there are clues in athletic talent, basketball IQ, and work ethic. I think the athletic talent part of the equation is well understood and if anything overrated (especially by the Knicks last management group). It’s the basketball IQ and work ethic part of it that sometimes gets ignored. That’s why even 3 years into his career I still think Frank is going to become a key piece on a championship caliber team eventually even if he’s never a #1 or #2 option. He’s very smart, plays his ass off, plays the right way, reportedly has a very good work ethic and seems very passionate about getting better. He’s going to keep getting better on both sides and he’s already very good on one side. I want guys like that on my team even if he’s not a #1 or #2 option.
Any relation to the late, great Ennio?
I got one of those, “These basketball odds might be useful for your site” emails and it was about the draft and I freaked out for a sec, “Wait, is the draft happening much sooner than I thought?” But nope, still a month off.
I’ve seen one of the knocks against Hali is that his team was bad last season, which is generally not a great sign for a pro-level PG, but Iowa State had a solid offense. They were 3rd in the Big XII. They were much worse on defense
i want to see poll of how many here would trade rj for the #1 pick
Is that a trade of RJ for who the Knicks would actually take, i.e. Lamelo?
Or a trade of RJ for the pick, which we can dispose of as we please via trading down or selecting any player?
I put basically no value on RJ right now. His ceiling looks quite low. He’s going to be an NBA player but a marginally useful one. If he has a Stackhousian career I think that would be a great result.
I don’t like Lamelo but I would probably do that trade just because of his passing ability.
If I could trade down or select someone else, seems like a relatively straightforward decision.
i want to see poll of how many here would trade rj for the #1 pick
I probably wouldn’t? Maybe? RJ was the third overall prospect — albeit a significant step down from the first two — in what was considered to be a pretty good draft class, whereas every scout has said that all of 2020’s prospects would be taken at least five picks lower in a normal year. Maybe if you think Edwards is more likely to become a good shooter than RJ you do it, or if you think LaMelo’s passing is just so great that his flaws can be worked around. But as bad as RJ mostly was as a rookie (and, as we all know, most rookies are bad, including those who go on to be great), I feel more confident in his ability to become an above-average NBA player than I do anyone who would be worth taking with this year’s top pick.
yeah you are not allowed to trade the pick in this hypothetical
In a draft with the next Barkley and Lillard at #1 and #2, we got Jerry Stackhouse at #3. Brilliant.
2019 was Zion and Ja and then a bunch of guys who look no better or worse than the 2020 crop imo.
In order for Zion to be the next Barkley he has to, you know, play in basketball games.
Zion could very well end up being the next Greg Oden. Dude missed more than half of his rookie year and that was after missing like half of his one season at Duke. And he didn’t exactly look great in the bubble either.
Omg if RJ became Stackhouse, that would be such a huge win… sadly, he’s much more likely to become OJ Mayo.
I would probably trade RJ straight up for LaMelo, but I don’t think that moves the needle much. Now I feel like they’re just going to take Maxey and go for a UK North thing.
Someone, Schwinny Pooh? – had a long thing on Maxey. He too seems great except for the fact he is a tweener and can’t really shoot.
They said the same thing about Donovan Mitchell!
Well, they’re not really wrong, even if he had a scorching 6-game stretch in Round 1 this year (before shitting the bed in Game 7 with a 69 ORtg, decidedly not nice, which they lost by 2).
Guys, Brian started a new thread, with the poll ptmilo requested: