Knicks Morning News (2019.06.24)

ptmilo alluded to something like this the other day but how about a 3-way trade where we get OKC and Charlotte 1st round picks? Adams goes to Charlotte, Biyombo/Willliams go to Knicks, and Roberson goes to either Charlotte or NYK. If Charlotte is interested in Roberson, they could take him. Biyombo/Williams would both be expiring contracts. Starting lineup of Kemba/Lamb/Batum/PJ Washington/Adams. Zeller/Miles Bridges/Monk/Roberson off the bench. Not bad for Hornets and sweet deal for us though we’d be hurting our Charlotte 2nd round picks.

So here’s my strategy for the cap:
(1) Rubio on 2-year deal at about 20m/yr
(2) That 3-way deal where we absorb those two 32m contracts for just one year
(3) Keep remaining 15m cap open unless some team makes great offer to dump contract

Interesting discussion from yesterday where djphan wrote:

the tmac comparison isn’t perfect….

but who was the last rfa that was as good and as young and as available as russell? i’ll wait…

.

and I responded with 5 RFA’s from last season alone who showed better composite advanced stats than d’AR for a fraction of the contract:
https://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/pcm_finder.fcgi?request=1&sum=1&player_id1_hint=D%27Angelo+Russell&player_id1_select=D%27Angelo+Russell&y1=2019&player_id1=russeda01&idx=players&player_id2_hint=Aaron+Gordon&player_id2_select=Aaron+Gordon&y2=2018&player_id2=gordoaa01&idx=players&player_id3_hint=Clint+Capela&player_id3_select=Clint+Capela&y3=2018&player_id3=capelca01&idx=players&player_id4_hint=Montrezl+Harrell&player_id4_select=Montrezl+Harrell&y4=2018&player_id4=harremo01&idx=players&player_id5_hint=Nikola+Jokic&player_id5_select=Nikola+Jokic&y5=2018&player_id5=jokicni01&idx=players&player_id6_hint=Fred+VanVleet&player_id6_select=Fred+VanVleet&y6=2018&player_id6=vanvlfr01&idx=players

To which djphan retorted:

lets just say that none of those guys you listed are neither better bor nore available nor younger than russell….

i mean if you want to argue that youd rather have montrez harrell than dlo… then this discussion is not gonna be all that productive.. the only one you might be able to squint and make a case for is capela… but bigs like capela are not all that valuable…

I DO want to argue Montrezl Harrell at 12m/2 years is infinitely more desirable than d’AR at 140M for 5 years!

I do want to argue that Capella at 90M for 5 is infinitely better value than d’AR at 140M for 5 years

And I DO want to argue that Fred Vanvleet at 18M for 2 years is infinitely better value and use of money than d”AR at 140M…

Food for thought:

Watching video of Brazdeikis, I couldn’t help but notice that he plays a 2-way style that reminded me of Chris Mullin.

Now I’m not saying definitively that he’ll turn out like Mullin, just that I’m seeing similarities. That said, Ignas has much work to do to get anywhere near there.

I personally wish the Durant rumors ended with his injury, but the front office might feel like that would be going back on a deal of sorts and I guess it’s hard to quantify the damage that could do.

If we have to sign him, the way to do it would be the way danvt outlined. Use the rest of the cap space to take on assets with the understanding that his rehab year will be lost regardless. The problem is the 2020 free agent crop is a pretty sorry group (assuming AD stays in LA), and if we’re waiting until 2021 that’s asking a lot of a 32 year old, post-achilles tear Durant.

There’s always the possibility that opportunities we aren’t currently aware of rise, and we’d have a decently solid asset chest. For this reason it wouldn’t be the stupidest risk we’ve ever taken, but that’s a very low bar.

I’m just catching up with yesterday.

The fact that some people are willing to pay Russell a max contract shows you how much people value scoring relative to defense. Russell is a negative defender and he’s not even all that good as an offensive player because his scoring efficiency leaves something to be desired. You could argue he’s still a slightly negative player on a net basis and you might not even be wrong. It would at least be a discussion.

If we are going to add yet another player doesn’t defend, I’d way rather have Julius Randle. At least he scores very efficiently, rebounds, and is a good playmaker for a forward. I’m not making a case for him either. I’d just rather have him than Russell.

I’m actually making the case for keeping guys like Vonleh and looking for players just like him. His overall value is probably ball park similar to Randle’s but he’ll be WAY cheaper because he has the opposite profile.

We should be looking for players that add value in non scoring ways because they tend to be cheaper. It doesn’t necessarily have to be any of the guys on this list. A couple are too old. But this is more or less the profile.

Aminu
Rubio
Brogdon
Morris twins
Willie Cauley-Stein
Rozier
Ed Davis
Caldwell Pope

They don’t pay me millions of dollars to scout games every night looking for young underrated defenders, playmakers, rebounders, 3&d guys etc… but there are probably several out there in their mid 20s that would be bargains. They could be part of the long term solution and/or be used to trade up to star at a later date.

DAR with his smoking hot metrics at 29 million a year for the next 4 will need assets added to move unless he miraculously becomes a perennial 2nd team all NBA He’s going to have to improve greatly to be neutral value at 117M for the next 4 years. And that’s factorial!

I don’t know how many times you need me to acknowledge that I accept this is a risk. It’s just that, though. A risk. What you’re saying above is far from certain. If there are multiple teams willing to max him now with all those advanced metrics red flags, it’s stands to reason that he has value despite them.

The one thing everyone keeps ignoring in the whole risk management equation is Dolan’s impatience. You can’t sit around and wait for the perfect free agent. He’s not going to allow 2 more seasons of winning 17 games while you trade cap space for assets and accumulate lottery picks. He’ll turn the whole damn management roster upside down and force them to make desperate moves to sell tickets. Too often here we discuss alternatives that are just unrealistic given the ownership that we have.

At some point we have to pull the trigger on something. I get the risk with Russell and I get the risk with Durant coming off an Achilles tear. But those remain two risks I’m willing to take for the litany of reasons I’ve stated.

Having spent the last few days attempting to destroy my reasons for being willing to take on Russell, pray tell how would you like to spend the $70mm in cap space this summer? I believe you’re in the same camp as me about Durant, but you could just be enjoying tearing apart the anti-Durant crowd for the sake of swatting down feeble arguments.

If we don’t get Durant, Irving or Kawhi. (and with Durant I’d want some injury protection in the contract), then we take on guys who might improve and who have short contracts and wait for our young guys to improve. If we can’t spend it all, that’s ok. We save it for next year or for deals at the trade deadline, maybe with teams who want to get under the tax.

I’m still not buying this. I’ve scoured those D-RAPM lists and I still don’t think they weed out the impact of team level defense well enough to get at individual defense. I’d be willing to bet that if you put Jokic on the Knicks his defensive rating would fall noticeably.

Jokic is not a bad defender and both stats and eye test back this up.

This gets back to the same discussion about Porzingis where people focus too much on one aspect of defense: rim protection.

Porzingis was an elite rim protector but not an elite defender. He couldn’t rebound his position and he couldn’t guard anyone on the perimeter.

Jokic is a poor rim protector but not a terrible defender. He’s an elite defensive rebounder. And Denver changed the way they used him last year. Instead of sitting back on pick and rolls he attacks ball handlers and is very good at forcing them to give up the ball. That’s why Denver’s team stats look good with him. He’s not playing defense the way you expect a big man to, but that doesn’t mean he’s a terrible defender.

Porzingis was an elite rim protector but not an elite defender. He couldn’t rebound his position and he couldn’t guard anyone on the perimeter.

Statistically Porzingis is below average as a defensive rebounder for a F/C. He rebounds like Chris Bosh. He’s certainly not a good rebounder, but the haters overstate his rebounding deficiencies. I can buy Kristaps not being an elite defender despite being an elite rim protector, but I think he’s a valuable defensive player.

@12

The path forward is always “star players”.

You can draft them, trade for them, or sign them as free agents.

When you suck, you can’t attract them as free agents because they want to play on good teams and you can’t trade for them because you don’t have any attractive players as assets.

There’s a reason teams are considering Barclay’s Center over Madison Square Garden even though the Nets have quite a few players of the profile I am suggesting. It’s because they don’t suck and we do.

Same pattern every time.

The correct path forward assumes you are signing players that are both young enough to hang around for the duration of their contract and at a price that allows you to trade them later if a star player becomes available. It also assume you are managing your cap space correctly so you will have more opportunities to sign a star going forward with some small moves. If a players does not meet those conditions you say “no” and move on to next best option.

The purely draft alternative most likely means continuing to miss the superstar in the lottery, continuing to draft the wrong player on occasion, but slowly getting better and making it less likely we can get a star that way. Then in 6-7 years when Knox and Barrett are starting to peak and whoever else we draft is beginning to develop, maybe we’ll be able to make some moves.

You have to get on a path to improving the team while managing space well. If that means signing a few players that are 27-28 years old, that’s fine. You are shortening the process.

According to Bondy, we’ve all spent days arguing about something that isn’t happening. That’s a big part of what we do here.

He also mentions that the backup plan to KD/Kawhi/Kyrie isn’t taking on salary dumps, it’s Plan C. That is so asinine. I bet we could get a few assets just by taking on expiring money, but we’d rather re-up Mario Hezonja for a year?

It really is quite similar to the time Phil Jackson passed up two first round picks for Afflalo and Williams. It’s starting to look like we’ll never have a front office creative enough to build a contender through any means other than “2-3 really good players decide they want to live in New York.”

There’s a reason teams are considering Barclay’s Center over Madison Square Garden even though the Nets have quite a few players of the profile I am suggesting. It’s because they don’t suck and we do.

Actually, the Nets don’t have a single player under contract for next season above $10M AAV, and only have two above $7M AAV (Dinwiddie and Harris).

I agree that they likely have a better foundation of young players than us, but it’d odd that you would cite that as evidence for why it’s good to sign mediocre veterans. They got most of their core via rebuilding, despite not having their own picks. Under Marks, they regularly took on salary dumps for first rounders, gave out flyers to intriguing young players instead of mediocre veterans (this is how they wound up with Dinwiddie, Harris, and to an extent D’Lo), and traded the veterans they did have for picks (e.g. Thad Young for the LeVert pick). As plenty of us pointed out at the time, they were basically executing the exact strategy for which we’ve been clamoring.

It’s actually good evidence of the potential success of said strategy that they were able to pull it off without their own picks.

According to Bondy, we’ve all spent days arguing about something that isn’t happening. That’s a big part of what we do here. He also mentions that the backup plan to KD/Kawhi/Kyrie isn’t taking on salary dumps, it’s Plan C. That is so asinine. I bet we could get a few assets just by taking on expiring money, but we’d rather re-up Mario Hezonja for a year?

Yeah it would be gross incompetence if team didn’t do that 3-way for a couple of 1sts if it were available. We know OKC would do it so it’s only a question of Charlotte but I think the odds are they would give up a 1st for Adams and to shed some bad contracts. All of the contracts we’d take on would expire at the end of this season so the cap the following year wouldn’t be affected. It’s a no-brainer.

That said, I get they don’t want put a sh!t show out there again this year especially if Nets are thriving (TV viewership plummeted last year). The happy compromise to me would be Rubio, the 3-way deal, try to re-sign Vonleh/Kornet on value deals, and either hold any remaining cap or take a flyer on a young player on a 1-and-1 deal (team option). But it appears they’re gonna try to sign a bunch of vets (maybe Rubio, DAJ, Ariza) on 1 or 2-year deals.

The entire image of the organization has been changed by the success they were having on the court due in part to those guys. Whether they stay, move on, or get replaced with similar players, the team got better and will continue trying to get better until they land the stars they need.

This seems subjective and not yet determined, but regardless, it’s important to remember that because of the Celtics trade they didn’t have to worry about marginal wins. If they did, it’s pretty unlikely they would’ve prioritized this kind of “culture building” or whatever you want to call it. I mean, to the extent that they’re in the conversation for free agents, it’s largely because they have a lot of cap space and play in a big market. Not because of Jared Dudley. There’s no line of free agents going around the block of the Orlando Magic’s front office despite the fact that they had the same record, and same amount of success in the playoffs.

Also, it seems like the strategy you’re advocating for is entirely based on becoming attractive to free agents. That begs the question, what do you do if you get spurned? What do you have to fall back on? If you keep your books clear and take on salary dumps, the answer is surplus first round picks. If you dawdle along with short-term, market value contracts for veterans, the answer is…not much. This is why Phil Jackson’s reign was so terrible–we had nothing left when his pie-in-the-sky “every elite free agent wants to play in the triangle” delusions predictably flopped.

Idk, it seems like the Knicks actually want to stay in play for a top ten 2020 free agent and/or leave the door open for a trade, which tbh, is probably a better move than taking on bad money for more years like Adams or Biyombo for a late first round pick, thereby taking yourself out of the running when a surprise trade comes along. That is why they also probably won’t go after Russell, despite his youth.

I think this is actually the way to go, especially if they are certain that KD is on board. Then you can say to any star, “look, we have a top-5 star, lots of young pieces including RJ and Mitch, and the best city in the world at your fingertips… let’s do this.”

I would conjecture that what makes Jokic a plus defender is his defensive rebounding and his steal rate. We know he doesn’t protect the rim and I would doubt that he would measure up very well in perimeter D/guarding smaller players on switches.

I was poking around and found this draft model: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1P3k8beglT4YL_KAA1IP8-SGcOFEFJhtr8psdUhKIKF4/edit#gid=933387324

It actually seems to do very well historically (you can sort by year by sorting Z–>A), though I haven’t done a rigorous comparison to actual draft position or anything.

It’s pretty high on RJ, so that’s good. Here’s the site it comes from: https://hardwoodblues.wordpress.com/2019/06/19/the-hardwood-blues-2019-nba-draft-big-board/

what’s his methodology? i don’t see it anywhere..

My understanding is that Strat thinks you don’t just draft your way to greatness in the NBA. You have to make a long series of smart decisions and trades and you don’t get better all at once. I think that is true and the NBA does work that way. We always hope for good luck in the draft, but that will only help so much. Perry has to be smart too. As for his taste in players and playing styles, he likes two way players and good defense more than many here. I think the NBA pays more for scoring than it does for defense, but that doesn’t mean successful teams ignore defense. For example, look at the Warriors turning down Love for Thompson.

https://hardwoodblues.wordpress.com/2017/04/12/re-introducing-dmx-2017-rankings/

DMX methodology kinda, IMO does some special sauce adjustments that he doesn’t really explain. I think he probably overfit the model to historical comps to get a 2006-2016 prospect rating he liked.

Vorkunov elaborating on what the other beat writers have suggested re: Plan B vs Plan C:

Just as relevant for the Knicks is what they’ll do if they miss out on the players on their max-contract short list. The question then is what they’ll do with all their cap space — some $70 million entering July. It was notable that on draft night the Knicks didn’t use it to take on any bad contracts to acquire more assets — say, how Indiana took on T.J. Warren to also get the No. 32 pick — just as much as it was that Brooklyn traded out of the 27th pick to preserve a little more cap room.

Draft night would’ve been too early for any kind of such deal — the Knicks still have high hopes for free agency, of course — but if no max player comes in July, don’t expect the Knicks to rent out their cap space. The team isn’t expected to be in the market to trade for other teams’ problematic deals just to add more draft picks or other kinds of future assets. Instead, New York wants to add players that can help it win in 2019-20 and be more competitive than this year’s 17-win team. That closes down one avenue to asset accumulation for the Knicks. They were interested in buying a second-round pick Thursday night during the draft, looking into acquiring No. 37, but saw a surfeit of teams willing to sell off their selections.

what’s his methodology? i don’t see it anywhere..

I’m currently trying to find out via Twitter, because I have no idea. He’s responding, but being rather vague. What I’ve gleaned so far:

-All major per-40 stats with varying weights, with some kind of modifier for age, height, SOS, and playing time
-He factors in overall TS%, but not anything more specific on the scoring efficiency front. Seems like a departure from other models.

Begley seems to think the issue is taking on money past one season, not they’re absolutely against salary dumps of all kinds.

I hope that’s the case. But the fact that none of the beat writers have suggested those kinds of trades in their stories implies that no one in the front office is talking — or thinking — about them.

If there’s no influx of decent FAs this summer I am worried about Barrett’s growth.
Telling him to carry the scoring will set him up to become THJ redux. He may have those tendencies now, but he’s still developing. Just doing as he’s told, he’ll be reviled as the latest in a long line of chuckers. Whereas if he’s a 2nd or 3rd option, can save energy for defense, etc., he’ll have a better chance of growing into a well rounded player we’ll want to keep.

The contrast between the Knicks and other teams that ranked low on assists per FGM last year suggests how coaching-to-tank might affect our young guys. Successful teams with low assists per FGM (e.g. Houston rnk = 28, Portland = 27, SAS = 24) were highly efficient (Houston rnk = 2, Portland = 3, SAS = 5). All had multiple good vet shot creators and coaches who gave them appropriate leeway to stop the ball. That paid off for everyone.

The Knicks, on the other hand, ranked last in both offensive efficiency and assists per FGM. Our guys habitually stopped the ball in ways that failed. They lacked good vet shot creators but no one made them pass the ball. We were bound to score few points, but more should have been assisted. Why harden bad habits instead of building good ones? Was the tanking mandate used to justify neglect of our guys’ development?

I suspect so. It’s one reason I despise tanking. If our goal is to suck again next year, I think that brings foreseeable damage to the “assets” we acquire, along with possible ping pong balls. Too actuarial an approach may miss hard to quantify factors that drive success. Regarding players as assets with fixed trajectories rather than as people who need good guidance to succeed seems wrong, a bit gross, and logically perverse. Perverse if it seduces us into a cycle of sacrificing present development to boost the chances of future prospects who themselves fail from lack of development.

Is that a process we trust?

My hope for Iggy is that he becomes better than the player we all hoped Landry Fields would be (remember the Hondo comparisons his rookie year?) He’s smart, hard-working, fearless, hard-nosed, hungry, ambidextrous, and an excellent shooter from all levels. Get me more of those, please!

At the same time, let’s pump the brakes on the crazy comparisons to HOFers like Chris Mullen. At least until he plays a couple of NBA games.

All the other beat writers had the same story, that the Knicks aren’t interested in renting their cap space out for assets. It seems like the most likely scenario is that they’re not interested in renting their cap space out for assets. Begley’s tweet did not sound as though it was based on anyone telling him anything specific, while his specific reporting on the topic was the same as the others (he’s the first guy to note their disinterest in trading cap space for picks).

That said, I’d sure love it if they were willing to trade cap space for picks!

All the other beat writers had the same story, that the Knicks aren’t interested in renting their cap space out for assets. It seems like the most likely scenario is that they’re not interested in renting their cap space out for assets. Begley’s tweet did not sound as though it was based on anyone telling him anything specific, while his specific reporting on the topic was the same as the others (he’s the first guy to note their disinterest in trading cap space for picks).

Pretty sure all the beat guys got it from Begley’s piece, since all this reporting came after that, and he specified his thoughts as well. I have a hard time believing Perry would say “nah, we’re not gonna take Marvin Williams’ contract into our space for a pick”. If the purpose is we want to spend to get some functional vets in here to address some holes and give the young guys a better platform to develop Marvin actually seems ideal as he can play some 4, stretch the floor, and expires after the season so you’re staying flexible.

Just my hunch. I think it may be more like they wouldn’t be interested in pure salary dumps where the player they have to take on can’t even play any role on the floor.

I was poking around and found this draft model: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1P3k8beglT4YL_KAA1IP8-SGcOFEFJhtr8psdUhKIKF4/edit#gid=933387324

It actually seems to do very well historically (you can sort by year by sorting Z–>A), though I haven’t done a rigorous comparison to actual draft position or anything.

It’s pretty high on RJ, so that’s good. Here’s the site it comes from: https://hardwoodblues.wordpress.com/2019/06/19/the-hardwood-blues-2019-nba-draft-big-board/

Looking again, that model actually has RJ behind
1) Zion (obvious)
2) Jaxson Hayes
3) Bol Bol (what a steal if his injury is recoverable)
4) Jontay
5) RJ Barrett which is not bad but not ideal for the 3rd pick if you believe in the model. Of course that website’s big board seems to take the model’s rank into account but that clearly isn’t the main input so take that to mean what you will…

From the google doc here are to 10 spots above and below RJ based on that model:

2014 2 5 Jabari Parker SF/PF NCAA 9.6
2015 3 3 Jahlil Okafor C NCAA 9.6
2013 3 2 Otto Porter SF NCAA 9.5
2017 9 6 Dennis Smith Jr. PG NCAA 9.5
2018 11 8 Shai Gilgeus-Alexander PG/SG NCAA 9.3
2017 3 7 Jayson Tatum SF NCAA 9.3
2008 6 4 Danilo Gallinari SF INTL 9.3
2018 16 9 Zhaire Smith SG/SF NCAA 9.2
2015 10 4 Justise Winslow SF NCAA 9.0
2013 4 3 Cody Zeller C NCAA 9.0
2019 3 4 R.J. Barrett SG/SF NCAA 9.0
2009 7 5 Stephen Curry PG NCAA 9.0
2009 4 6 Tyreke Evans PG/SG NCAA 9.0
2009 7 Nick Calathes PG NCAA 9.0
2015 21 5 Delon Wright PG NCAA 8.9
2017 5 8 De’Aaron Fox PG NCAA 8.9
2017 10 9 Zach Collins C NCAA 8.8
2006 21 2 Rajon Rondo PG NCAA 8.8
2015 4 6 Kristaps Porzingis PF/C INTL 8.8
2014 30 6 Kyle Anderson SF/PF NCAA 8.7
2012 3 3 Bradley Beal SG NCAA 8.7

If the FO is serious about making an effort to sign anyone even if it the unlikely best case scenario of Kawhi and Kyrie, shouldnt they be putting out this narrative that renting cap space is off the table? Why would a superstar be sold to come here if the media is reporting that we are open to doing things with the cap space that do not go towards that player’s max contract or bringing in other people he is excited about playing with. Isn’t everything we’re hearing now part of the sales pitch, as it should be?

My understanding is that Strat thinks you don’t just draft your way to greatness in the NBA. You have to make a long series of smart decisions and trades and you don’t get better all at once.

Except what he advocates are win now moves for mid-tier vets and development of defense minded but sub par rookies. None of that actually fits what he claims to think is good strategy. There’s also the other side where he invents scenarios that didn’t happen so he can trash Perry, blames Fiz for a tanking team with little talent doing poorly, ect. He says “this is the best way to do things” and then says we need vets ect. I don’t think it’s a coincidence that was Phil’s strategy.

Evan Turner traded for Kent Bazemore! What a time to be alive!

The Knicks need to be taking advantage of OKC and Charlotte right now. Can you imagine if they’d give up 1st round draft capital just to avoid the tax bill? If the Knicks grabbed Roberson, Biyombo, and Marvin Williams for the price of a 1RP from both teams? The NYK, OKC, and CHA 2020 1RPs would be worth so much. Way more than what Julius Randle and Kentavious Caldwell Pope will give you for a season. I don’t know if I want to sit through another 20 win season, but I know for sure we need to be collecting assets if/when we get burnt by the top free agents. Sign D’Angelo Russell and rent out the other $43M in cap space. Go into the season with 3 1RPs in 2020 and 2 1RPs in 2021 and you will be at the front of the line for any disgruntled superstar. The 2012 and 2013 drafts were pretty weak so there are very few 2nd contract superstars available, but collect the assets and wait. Opportunity will arise and our assets/market size combination should make us a top destination.

You can feasibly offer D’Angelo Russell the max, add $26M in salary via Roberson and Marvin Williams for assets, and still have $17M to split between whatever two win now guys you want. D’Angelo Russell, Andre Roberson, Marvin Williams, Julius Randle, and Seth Curry plus what we have now puts us in contention for the playoffs, and then we’d be adding some more draft capital in the process. It’s a no brainer if you ask me.

The great thing about the idea that the Knicks are actually totally willing to take on salary dumps and the Fake News is just wrong is we’ll find out definitively whether or not it’s true.

@66 tnfh with the research. Its like some folks still think Courtney Lee is a tradeable asset. Shit does not work that way. Folks see 2nd contract guys getting traded and think oh boy, if only we had some vets we could trade like that.

Looking again, that model actually has RJ behind
1) Zion (obvious)
2) Jaxson Hayes
3) Bol Bol (what a steal if his injury is recoverable)
4) Jontay
5) RJ Barrett

Looks similar to 538″s CARMELO Rankings. It should be noted that RJ’s comparables as the 5th best player are Brandon Ingram, Andrew Wiggins, and the man himself, Carmelo Anthony. These comps range from bad to Wiggins in likelihood to be overpaid.

I agree with the overall thrust of your point entirely, tnfh (more draft picks = more better), but on one of the trades…

Paul George
-Victor Oladipo (draft pick)
-Domantas Sabonis (draft pick)

it should be noted that they were acquired by OKC via trade (for a player OKC drafted, though).

Part of the problem with the ‘sign vets on reasonable deal and you can trade them later’ narrative is that vets don’t really sign ‘reasonable’ deals for shitty teams. The ones people want sign deals that usually end up looking bad and the ones that no-one wants – well, no-one wants them. Occasionally you’re going to get a guy who outperforms and becomes a good asset – but then you probably want to keep that guy.

Yeah, rule of thumb is almost always add an extra $10 million to whatever you think would be a good value to sign a guy for. That’s why the true max players are so valuable, because you can look at Kawhi and say, “That dude is probably worth $50 million” but is capped out at much less, so they are major exceptions to the rule of thumb.

Mid-tier free agency is a bad market. There’s really not much predictable value there

The problem is that applies almost equally to the draft. First round picks turn into busts. 2nd round and undrafted guys you pass over turn into really good players. Players are drafted so young now that teams commonly have to sign them to their second deals, and huge amounts of money, without knowing if they’ll ever live up to it.

But for some reason, nobody seems to care about the endless examples of mistakes, disasters, and futility associated with the draft. It’s always presented like this golden ticket which always works if you’re just smart enough to use it.

Mike

I’m fine with standing pat. We get to watch RJ PnRs with Mitch. We’ll all get excited for that 1 month Knox hits 40% of his 3’s before regressing back to 35%. Frank will play stellar defense on some top tier offensive players before getting hurt for half the season and/or benched. Some end of the bench former high draft pick will wow us with how terrible he still plays. In short, the Knicks will do what they’ve always done, but they’ll be younger and can finally be that up and coming team.

As was said above, why would Perry signal his intention to take albatross contracts in exchange for future assets? Clearly and rightly plan A is to lure all pro talent. What’s Kawhi going to think? “Awesome they just got Gallinari and a top twenty protected pick. They can’t get Kyrie now but they’re thinking long term. I like it.”

Bazemore has really fallen off since that 1 good year he put up

Getting draft picks in deals signals that you’re kicking the can down the road as an organization. It might be the right thing to do but it’s not a signal you want to send. I’m pretty sure Perry will know a good deal when he sees it but it may be later in July that he’s in the mood to take Marvin Williams. I don’t blame him for shutting that down at this time.

Building with kids is great but it’s a double-edged sword.

Sure, building a team through the draft and having them pan out is really the only way to get fundamentally good. Having a lot of draft picks is a good thing. But the kids have to become stars. The problem is that before we can draw free agents, we have to have a core of at least 3 young stars. If you are a free agent and you know that the Knicks are rebuilding, wouldn’t you look at the playing time that DeAndre Jordan and Enes Kanter got last season and wonder, ‘Do I want to go through that?’

One of my biggest disappointments in the league is Evan Turner being bad. I thought he would be such a star when he came into the league, I loved watching him.

Getting draft picks in deals signals that you’re kicking the can down the road as an organization. It might be the right thing to do but it’s not a signal you want to send. I’m pretty sure Perry will know a good deal when he sees it but it may be later in July that he’s in the mood to take Marvin Williams. I don’t blame him for shutting that down at this time.

Most of our reactions, though, are about the reports that they will have no interest in acquiring draft picks for cap space even if they strike out on free agents, but rather choose to acquire free agents on one year deals.

Getting draft picks in deals signals that you’re kicking the can down the road as an organization. It might be the right thing to do but it’s not a signal you want to send.

We’re worried about optics? Any player or agent who has the short-term memory loss that would allow them to see this no-renting-space strategy as a sign of “winning culture” has a short enough memory to forget that they’d be renting out space for picks.

We’re worried about optics?

I think optics matter to a certain extent. Just not that much.

Any available player coming here for a win-now experience is going to be in for a real surprise come November.

If you meet with players, you tell them, “We are taking unwanted contracts for assets so we can field a competitive basketball team in the near future.” Anyone who fails to understand this has no place on the roster.

I know the numbers aren’t with me, but I can’t shake the feeling that Harden got robbed

If history remembers James Harden as a fraud, I want out, because something truly fucked up has happened along the way and absolute stupidity is reigning supreme. The guy had the first 35 ppg season since Jordan, led his team to the closest anyone got against the full strength KD Warriors, his legacy doesn’t change just because people don’t enjoy watching him. If he shot literally zero free throws in this entire season he still would have averaged 25 points on pretty good efficiency, plus all the assists, steals and rebounds.
I also hated watching Kobe play basketball, but that doesn’t make him a fraud.

Mike D’Antoni may never win the big one, but he ain’t no fraud either. The league plays the Mike D’Antoni way now, he is basically the Bill Walsh of basketball, minus all the championships.

The league ain’t playing “how’s it goink” ball anymore, that’s for damn sure.

D’Antoni’s a fraud and so is James Harden, or at least that’s how history will remember the two.

History will remember D’Antoni the way that JK47 just explained, as the guy who revolutionized offense in the NBA, not as a fraud. There might also be people who knock him for the defenses he has coached over the years, but that’s a far cry from “fraud.” Who the hell has ever called D’Antoni a fraud? Fuck the heck?

D’Antoni’s problem was that the contender teams he coached were in the West and ran in to the 00’s dynasty Lakers and the Warriors this decade.

I believe D’Antoni was already in New York by the time the Lakers won their late 2000s titles and he wasn’t yet the Suns coach by the time the Lakers won their early 2000s titles. It was mostly the Spurs who beat D’Antoni’s Suns teams.

Maybe we could take care of our draft picks like this and they’ll blossom.

I agree that we should treat our draft picks as if they stink and need a new home.

Well, their age makes it obvious to me, there’s no way you choose 29 year old Harden over 24 year old Giannis for a team. Without considering age and possible improvement / decline, I think it’s very close and maybe I’d choose Giannis because of the defense.