Knicks Morning News (2018.08.18)

Ha! Facts!

They can’t possibly mess up the tank AGAIN right? Right?????

Yeah they totally can.

The tank will be hard because:

1) we have an brand new coach who will want to win, even within the overall scheme to develop young players
2) we have too many players that “have to play” (Kanter, TH2, Burke) who can occasionally win games all by themselves, especially Kanter who is playing for his most important contract
3) we have too many young, athletic players (with upside?!?!) trying to prove that they deserve bigger roles and contracts: Dotson, Burke, Vonleh, Hezonja, Baker, Mudiay, Kornet, maybe Trier if he develops in the G-League (I liked him in Vegas)
4) we have 3 guys on rookie deals that are going to do everything possible to earn playing time/respect: Frank, Knox, Robinnson
5) KP will probably come back midseason and is wrangling for a max deal

I doubt that Lee or Noah are still around or relevant when the season starts. Beyond that, on paper, we’re probably a low-20’s win team but I think the odds of overachieving based on the above 5 points is pretty high. We might win a bunch of games early on before teams figure us out or trap games in the dog days of the season. So 30 games give or take is likely enough that we should consider the Barrett/Williamson sweepstakes a long shot at best.

Out only solace is that the lottery odds have been flattened this year, so we’d have a better shot at a top pick .

Or in true Knicksy fashion, we go on a 5-game winning streak in April to finish with the 3rd worst record and wind up picking 6th.

There is no tank, because it’s the organization that decides to tank, not the fans. I’ve heard nothing from the organization about tanking. Fans get caught up in their fantasies.

The knicks should not be trying to tank to start the season. They should be trying to figure out what they have first and then decide whether tanking makes sense or not. It’s not obvious they have no talent, what’s obvious, is they do. But if someone insists that they don’t, then it should be easy to imitate the 2015 season. New York will not acquire 30 wins if they have zero talent, we saw what happened in 06 and 015.

This is the year we find out if the knicks will imitate the warriors and sixers or if their really just a pitiful team.

The warriors drafted stephen curry in 2009; they missed the playoffs. Again they missed the playoffs. In his third season he suffered an injury. He played half the games porzingis played this season. The warriors won 23 games. Next year he was healthy, 47 wins, playoff appearance, year 4.

Sixers drafted embiid in 2014 he was injured, no playoffs. He was injured again, no playoffs. In 2016 they drafted Ben Simmons. Both got injured, no playoffs. Then last season, they were healthy. Most media said we shouldn’t expect young injured players to make the playoffs in their first season. Answer; playoff appearance, year 4.

In 2015 the knicks drafted kristaps porzingis, they had veterans, they missed the playoffs. Again they missed the playoffs. Veteran stars were tossed. President was fired. They drafted ntilikina and signed trey burke. Porzingis suffered an injury, they missed the playoffs. They hired a new coach and then drafted knox and robinson. New york is now entering it’s 4th season with porzingis.

To be continued

This is the year we finally get to prove that knickerblogger is nonsense.

Huh?

1) we have an brand new coach who will want to win, even within the overall scheme to develop young players

I really hope that behind closed doors, Perry tells Fizdale that he has no expectation for win total. Otherwise, this team is still on the stupid cycle it’s been on.

I know you’ll never be able to market tanking to NYC — everything’s gotta be done right now, if not yesterday. For the people who spend real money at MSG (corporate partners and luxury box ticket holders), prestige is more important than being an underdog on the rise.

Still, I want this franchise to show that it can develop solid processes, not just chase the hyped free agent or disgruntled trade target du jour. Not holding my breath, but I think we’ll know what the mission is by New Year’s.

I’m all for imitating the Warriors or the Sixers!

Call me when Curry, Draymond, Durant, Thompson, Embiid or Simmons arrive at MSG.

People still don’t get that the fans want tanking because they don’t believe the management and everyone involved is capable enough to build anything, so the only resort is getting damn lucky on the ping pong balls and then getting damn lucky again by finding a superstar, and THEN getting lucky again that they don’t trade the guy or squander his prime on terrible teams with no cap space. I really thought it would be clear by now.

Kanter: do we showcase and trade him to anyone who will take him? If he’s still here at the trade deadline, do we waive him? If you look at what I posted at the end of the last thread, he looks to be in the best shape of his life, so if has a career year and actually improves on D, does that tempt management into re-signing him? 2) do they bring KP back, and if yes, when? and 3) how much time do they give to the truly bad players…Mudiay, Kornet, Lance?

I don’t understand your question about the bad players. Kanter might be a starter, but will he be a finisher? So if he wants to come back, he can be a bench player. The kp question depends on his performance and what route the knicks take overall

Im not too concerned about whether we intentionally tank. I have a lot of confidence in this team to lose hard even if they’re trying.

My one concern is Trey Burke. He may be really good this year. But I think a lot of the tank drivers from last year (Dallas, Memphis, Chicago) are going to be less egregious about their tanking and actually half try. I think us, Sacramento, and Atlanta have what it takes to secure the bottom 3 on merit.

Chicago is a concern more because I think they still have a pretty bad roster, they might just be very bad and start tanking midway through. The same goes for Orlando and Sacramento, who has no incentive to tank but will probably be terrible anyway. The Grizzlies will be better if Conley is healthy which is fair to expect, and the Suns are 100% going all-in for wins and should be better too.

The Hawks are the only team really tanking from day one, and maybe the Nets. There’s no reason for the Knicks not to join that group other than Fizdale wanting to show his work. If he just plays the young guys heavily I will be happy, but I really wanted to see at least Lee gone before the season ends, if Kanter and Lance are untradeable .

I don’t understand your question about the bad players.

The Knicks acquired Mudiay and gave Kornet a contract with the hope of developing them. Lance is veteran who hardly contributes to winning (and probably contributes to losing) but is a good role model for hustle, team play, yadayada. I think we all can agree that thus far, they have all demonstrated that they don’t belong in an NBA rotation. So the question is: will Fiz continue (either on his own accord of due to pressure from above) to play them even after they continue to suck? (possibly more losses, good for the tank) Or will he bench them in favor of more productive players (possibly more wins, bad for the tank)?

Kanter might be a starter, but will he be a finisher? So if he wants to come back, he can be a bench player. The kp question depends on his performance and what route the knicks take overall

Kanter is a very intriguing player. He is demonstrably terrible on defense but gives all-star level production on interior offense and on the boards. Can he improve on defense and/or his 3-pt shot enough to be worth a re-do of his current contract? One thing is clear, he’s not been in great shape thus far. I’m always skeptical on players improving much on D at his age, but if he does, he might merit consideration as a valuable piece, whether as a starter or 6th man. Personally, I prefer that he is moved for assets before the trade deadline no matter how good he plays. But if he continues to be a goofy ambassador for the team and human rights, and he improves in the areas mentioned above, He and KP actually complement each other pretty well. Throw the best reasonable scenario of Knox and Robinson in the mix and you have a very nice front line going forward. Then you can focus on acquiring wings and a PG in the draft and free agency.

Of course I didn’t, and I never said that. Then they went and got stars through the draft and became promising teams and it became expected. I really don’t get your point.

Do you see the Knicks roster as a team that has any chance of making a Philly-like leap?

I’m talking about after they drafted their current stars. Did you see the greatness of the warriors when Curry missed a season with injuries. Were you talking about how great the sixers would be before the season started.

@24

With Philly, 100%. I had absolute certainty that Embiid would be a mega star and that they had built a pretty good roster around him. I obviously didn’t know what to expect about Simmons but it was clear he had a sky high ceiling. But no, I don’t have a crystal ball, I couldn’t possibly expect Simmons to be so good. Do you have one?

And again, what’s your point? Do you think the Knicks have anywhere near the talent these teams have?

I would love to be as optimistic about it as you guys, but I see a flawed player coming back from a huge injury, two extremely raw rookies who have promise but are not expected to be really productive until like their third year, a sophomore guard who is a zero on offense and a bunch of mediocre veterans.

Of course the goal is to develop those guys, and that’s exactly what I want precisely because that’s a) the best basketball decision for the future b) they will probably suck major ass and it will lead to a good pick c) we have no other options.

I don’t get why you’re so defensive about it, that’s why I asked if you believe the Knicks core had the same shot at becoming very good as the Philly and the Warriors ones did. I don’t, that’s why adding more talent is going to be necessary.

If it’s a 9th pick next year we might ask Mike to rename this place Knickertanker

@29 bingo

It all hinges on KP. We are moving forward as a team like he will be a top 10 player.

Are we? How so?

I still think that is a possibility and if he is we will be in a great place to capitalize when he takes that step forward year after next.

See, I heard he was going to take that leap this past season. He didn’t. Why is it going to happen in 2019-20?

We will sign a star next summer, KP will blossom into a true superstar, and then hopefully one of Knox, Frank, Robinson, or our 2019 1st round pick blossoms into a third star.

So much hope with so little reason. I don’t get it at all.

It is a long shot but from where I am standing we are at an all-in type situation.

I really don’t understand why you think this. There is nothing about the Knicks’ current situation that suggests that this player is the one to build around. This is a guy coming off an ACL injury, who played like a replacement player for much of the season. All-in?

We need to go for it next summer because if KP becomes a star and we haven’t set the table for him it could cost us two+ years trying to put a team around him ala Davis or Giannis and then we could simply lose him.

And if KP doesn’t take the leap, you’re paying $31M AAV over five years to one guy who’s not a star, and you’ve gone all-in with another veteran max contract, likely with a player like Kyrie who’ll be 33 when his next contract expires.

In December, Porzingis shot .498 TS% and in January he shot .517. Was that for real, too?

In December, Porzingis shot .498 TS% and in January he shot .517. Was that for real, too?

It depends whether you think being double teamed for the 1st time in his life on a team having Courtney Lee as the 2nd scoring option impacted his efficiency and shot selection while Hardway was out. Perhaps having players like Burke, Hardaway, and Knox on the court will make it harder to double him and also relieve his tendency to take off balance turn arounds, long 2s and other trash. We’ll see.

Didn’t want to see your work go unreviewed because of the format.

I promise I will try again. It’s I am traveling and only have my phone to do internet with. I will try again Monday

I’ve been thinking about this team and I don’t think the tank is going to happen. Z-man, you have it right. A lot of things are already going against the tank. At first glance it looks like we drafted well. We’ve also collected a number of lottery picks that needed second chances. The odds are that one or two of them takes the next step in their game. Our coach is doing the right things with the players and I think they’ll play hard for him. But if those positives don’t turn sour, how much do we need to tank?

There are obviously those who get caught up in whether mgmt does things the way they would if they were GMs, and anything less is reason to throw hands up and cry foul. That’s no fun for me. I’m all in with KP because that’s the most likely reason we crawl out of the doldrums. It may not pan out, but why fret about it when we have no control? He’s a fun player to root for. We all saw that for a few games at the beginning of last season. If he can’t sustain it, then fuck, it’s back to the drawing board. But in my book, give him every chance. He’s our best hope for a good team in the next 5 years.

I’m not predicting how KP eventually turns out. All I know is that he’s worth going all in on. He’s like pocket aces with a shitty flop. I still think we have a great chance of winning.

Secretariat lost his first start. He got out of the gate slowly.