Knicks Morning News (2018.05.14)

Troy Williams is not a good defender, he’s just super active and athletic, but he’s subpar. Ron Baker, though…

When there is an upset in sports, a major question always is, was the favored team not as good as they should have been, or was the underdog better than consensus? I consider the Cavaliers/Toronto result an upset. Not that it is a tremendous surprise the Cavs won, but the way they won was clearly much better than people expected. So are the Cavs really that much better than their regular season record or the Raptors so much worse? The pundits seem to believe the former, as the two I’ve read are picking the Cavs to defeat Boston. I favor the latter. One reason is that in other sports, like tennis, upsets rarely signify further upsets. Usually the winner loses in the next round. I think that is likely here. Two, I believe the coaches’ vote for coach of the year. The league’s coaching fraternity clearly believes Stevens has lots more talent to work with than Casey did. And if you compare Toronto’s roster to that of Washington, I don’t see it as better in any significant way; but they did much better, which is a tribute to Casey.

So my prediction is that Boston will handle Cleveland comfortably. They have scoring talent, and they obviously can defend Cleveland, something Toronto couldn’t do.

Hubert, what was the +2000 bet?

Re Mudiay, the only comment that didn’t trouble me was Fizdale’s. He said something to Mudiay at the press conference to the effect of. “we are going to fix you” . That shows he knows Mudiay has too many flaws to be useful at the moment, which is accurate. Of course, fixing those flaws is much easier said than done.

Sheesh, this is a pretty damning piece on Mikal:
https://www.thestepien.com/2018/05/02/mikal-bridges-really-top-10-talent/

Maybe, in the end, he’s more of a Korver-type, which isn’t terrible, but not exactly a home run either.

A long-limbed Korver? Sign me up for it! Anyway no matter what, Mikal will be gone by the time we’ll be on the clock, so who cares.

He said something to Mudiay at the press conference to the effect of. “we are going to fix you” . That shows he knows Mudiay has too many flaws to be useful at the moment, which is accurate.

As long as fixing Mudiay doesn’t come at the expense of Frank’s development, I’m fine with his comments.

Frank is raw and needs to be developed. Dedicating time to developing a raw talent is a good thing.

Mudiay is broken beyond repair. Dedicating time to fixing something that is that broken is wasteful.

I think how efficient Bridges was on offense seems to be overlooked.

hubert
i think you may be wrong, sure he has an injury that would nullify any deal. also owed a lot of money soon. but Kp is considered a top ten young player in the league and that is worth something, its like a guarantee on your pick,.

Lol Kyle Korver with elite defense should be the 2nd pick in the draft.

Also

@WindhorstESPN
The Supreme Court has just ruled 7-2 to overturn the federal ban on sports gambling. It’s a historic day in American sport.

It should be a given that game 2 will feature a Rambo-like LeBron and much more Tristan Thompson, who will give fits to Horford. But if Cleveland defends like yesterday, they’re toast.

My reaction to the Bridges article is that I don’t understand why people don’t like Wendell Carter more than they do.

at 9 wendall and carter will both be gone; assuming we dont drop down to 10

My reaction to the Bridges article is that I don’t understand why people don’t like Wendell Carter more than they do.

This remains the draft’s biggest mystery to me, too. I think we might luck into him while teams are blinded by the tools and upside of other prospects. There’s some kawhi leonard potential here (as a steal, not as a player).

Then again, he seems perfect for Cleveland, and that last win is destined to kill us.

Wendell Carter seems to always get undervalued in mock drafts, but I bet he’ll end up getting picked higher than projected. If I have the choice between Carter and Bagley, I’m taking Carter all day.

You guys should really try to watch more film on these players before making definitive statements. I know Sports Reference is fun and all, but this isn’t the NBA. How a guy records his stats is every bit as important as his actual stat line because you need to know if he’s able to do it against NBA competition. Luka Doncic has generationally great stats for a prospect his age against the world’s 2nd best competition, but he’s just an average athlete by NBA standards and then you have his 30.6 3PT% to look at. I have no doubt he’s an NBA player, but I do have doubts that he’s a franchise savior.

Mikal Bridges looks to be a surefire pro, too. I hated him as recent as last week but I’ve come around on his awkward form because his release is pretty fast. He can’t dribble and he’s a poor rebounder though, which means you’re banking that he’s a legit 3 and D prospect because he will not offer you anything in terms of passing, shot creation, or rebounding. It also means you can only play him at small forward unless he gets stronger/becomes a better rebounder.

Wendell Carter Jr is not as good a player as Marvin Bagley, who was the #1 player in both the class of 2018 and the class of 2017. Duke University took the number #35 jersey out of the rafters so he could wear it. Marvin Bagley is a better rebounding version of Toronto Bosh and he already comes with a 3 point jumper, and then there’s room for him to develop a handle when you watch him play. Somebody compared him to Michael Beasley as a prospect. Well if you can draft a more focused version of Beasley without the weed addiction you’ve found an unstoppable basketball player.

Collin Sexton has a lightning quick first step and he can finish at the basket due to his handle and strength. I have doubts about his ability to shoot, but he’s not a surefire bust of a prospect.

Watch the film, guys. It’ll round out your opinions.

Except Duke’s defense went to complete shit when Bagley played but Carter didn’t. Bagley is a poor defender, and Carter is a strong defender, and anybody who watched Duke a lot this year will tell you that.

Re: Cleveland vs Boston — per NBA.com Cleveland shot 4/24 from wide open (3/16) and open (1/8) range 3 point range. For the season they shot 10.5/27.2 (38.6%) from there. Figure the Cavs may even that out a bit by the end of the series.

Re: Bagley – by all reports he has quick feet but short arms and lack of defensive awareness. I’m sure the short arms don’t get better, and I don’t know that defensive awareness gets better either – seems like 2 things you’re just born with.

Re: who we pick — Mills/Perry seem fixated on getting athletic guys… which makes me think they might not love Carter, who is more smooth than athletic. I’m getting a Miles Bridges vibe.

Why the fuck do people keep mocking Sexton to us? Maybe they just want Mikal on the Sixers which we can’t let happen.

FWIW Carter is not an outstanding defender. He’s a little bit slow and struggles with defending the pick and roll in space. But he’s not a truly poor defender like Bagley.

I would probably rather trade down and pick SGA + Zhaire, but yes, trading down is a good option.

I iust don’t see anyone the Clippers would be so interested in to want to move up to 9th.

But yeah, why would the Clippers do that? They’re not one player away, either.

Re: Cleveland vs Boston — per NBA.com Cleveland shot 4/24 from wide open (3/16) and open (1/8) range 3 point range. For the season they shot 10.5/27.2 (38.6%) from there. Figure the Cavs may even that out a bit by the end of the series.

Playoffs BPM in descending order of MP:

GOAT 14.6
Love -2.9
Smith -0.2
Korver 2.0
Green 0.2
Hill -1.8
Clarkson -8.2 (haha what the fuck)
Hood -7.0 (again)
Nance 1.9
Thompson 1.4

Compare that to the Cs, who have only three rotation players in negative BPM territory (Morris, who can’t hit the broad side of a barn; Ojeleye, a rookie; and Larkin, who shouldn’t be in the NBA at all). Morris’s minutes would concern me, but Ojeleye and Larkin are not all that important in this series, where Rozier/Tatum/Horford/Brown should be playing 35+ MPG.

So in the Cavs we have a team fundamentally incapable of playing good role players over bad role players, a team full of mediocre “stars” or has-beens with just one bright spot keeping them alive against an improbably strong Celtics team.

It would be absurd to think they’re going to get beat by 25 every game, but there’s a good chance they get their asses handed to them in 5 if LeBron doesn’t show up. As great as his playoffs performance has been, a 14.6 BPM doesn’t mean he’s due to replicate that small-sample absurdity for the next 3-to-13 games.

It seems most likely that the Celtics win in 5 or 6 and then get swept by the Warriors or Rockets in the Finals. And then LeBron signs with the Sixers in July and makes another 2-3 Finals in a row, again.

I think Clippers would trade down if Trae were there.

@WindhorstESPN
The Supreme Court has just ruled 7-2 to overturn the federal ban on sports gambling. It’s a historic day in American sport.

@18
i saw that this morning kevin…i understand it’s significant – i’m still not exactly sure what it means though, and, what effect it will have – heck, on the whole country…

so bad he shouldn’t be in the league at all IMO

Beasley is not very good, but this statement is way over the top. He’s a perfectly fine player at a minimum salary or close to it and a probably rotation player on most teams unless his coach doesn’t like his antics or has a low tolerance for the more-than-occasional dumb play on D. In his last 3 years, he’s put up 25, 20 and 21 points per 36 on TS% of .563, .584 and .556, respectively. He’s a medium-efficiency, high usage scorer.

He totally sucked for the first 7 years of his career, and certainly still is relative to where he was drafted. But for his last 3 years, he’s every bit an NBA player. I wouldn’t be surprised if he has a positive impact on a very good team in the next 2-3 years.

I agree with Z-man about Beasley. Consider Cleveland. They could use Beasley against Boston and he’d be a help.

I feel for the Beez, he’d like to stay in one place, but the Knicks will have another rookie take a roster spot and probably won’t renew him.

[Doncic’s] close to the second coming of Larry Bird. Also, if you combine his two seasons of 3 pt shooting (the responsible thing to do), hes an average shooter at 35% on high volume while doing advanced step backs and shooting off pin downs, which at least suggests that he could become an elite 3 point shooter (like Harden eventually became.) There should simply be no question about who goes first in this draft

Can you name one superstar who isn’t either a athletic/physical freak or a lights out shooter? For Doncic to be a generational type talent like Bird he’s going to have to shoot a whole lot better than he does now. I don’t know where you get 35%- over the last two years he’s shot .323 from three with this year being a troubling .306. He’s got a great handle and nice hesitation moves but those will only get you so far if you can’t punish defenders for sagging off of you. I’d love him on the Knicks and think he’ll shoot well enough to be a very, very good player but I’m not sold on him being an perennial all-NBA talent unless his shooting improves dramatically. He’s also going to be a very high turnover guy for at least the first few years as he’s averaging over 3 per 36 now.
As for Ayton- I think people on this site are undervaluing the guy. He was basically a better Karl-Anthony Towns on offense (higher TS%, usage, and lower turnovers while also playing significantly more mpg). Towns did get a lot more blocks/steals but also fouled at twice the rate (5.6 per 40 vs 2.8) for what that’s worth. Ayton is also bigger and probably more athletic than Towns. His offensive ceiling is off the charts. He played a lot of 4 (as did Towns) so I think it’s at least possible that he’ll be better defensively once he plays the 5 full-time but it’s clear he’ll have a lot of work to do on that end. I’d probably go with Doncic at one- certainly a better fit for the Knicks- but I don’t think it’s the no-brainer people here seem to think it is.

I want Doncic more than anyone else but I agree that people need to slow down on the once in a lifetime prospect type talk. He is very good but because of his high-level experience in Europe he might be closer to his ceiling than his American counterparts, meaning he will start better and improve less.

I look at Rubio as a comparison. He was also a truly dominant player in Europe putting up unbelievable stats for an 18-year-old. He plateaued and didn’t really improve, even regressed a little, over the next two seasons in Europe before he came over.

Doncic could keep improving and become an all-world player but there isn’t a ton to improve. You look at someone like KP and you see loads of untapped potential, that maybe they reach maybe they don’t but you look at Doncic and where is his untapped potential. He already has great BBIQ, is strong, a good rebounder, a great passer, and a solid shooter. He’s not getting more athletic so the only real places for improvement is as a shooter and does that make him all world. It makes him great but he is not the next LeBron or even Simmons.

You know I’ve been thinking about Fizdale’s Lance Thomas – Draymond comment and I wonder if his plan is to play Lance as a small-ball 5? It’s hard to find his measurements but most places say he’s 6’8″ and I’ve seen a few places say he has a 7’3″ wingspan. He IS versatile and strong enough defensively to guard 5’s in a pinch most likely. Of course he can’t rebound or protect the rim at all, but hey, we’re talking a very very homeless man’s version of Draymond.

Re: Doncic – he basically is a less athletic LeBron. Can’t really compare him to Simmons because the truth is, Doncic CAN shoot. His 3-ball% is a bit compromised because I think he’s been playing around with pull-up / off-the dribble 3’s. I wonder whether there is a site that tracks his spot-up 3 percentage. 80% of LeBron is probably still an All-star.

Beasley is an actual bust in that there were no indications he’d be this bad (so bad he shouldn’t be in the league at all IMO).

For someone that likes to nominate most ridiculous comments ever, really, that’s what you think? Because if you do, I think we have a winner.

For someone that likes to nominate most ridiculous comments ever, really, that’s what you think? Because if you do, I think we have a winner.

Question: How many times has Beasley posted a WS48 higher than league average?

Question #2: How many times has Beasley posted a positive BPM in his career?

Question #3: How many times has Beasley posted a positive VORP in his career?

Question #4: How many times has Beasley posted a negative WP48 in his career?

Yes, Beasley has been better over the last three years than he ever was before. Again I ask why the Knicks (or any bad-to-middling team) would want to waste a roster slot on a veteran who has no chance of making significant improvements at age 29 nor anything of value to share with young players?

One final question: Are you so deep an anti-stats truther that you think all of the available metrics are dead-wrong on a guy who is consistently terrible at NBA basketball? This isn’t the CBA we’re talking about. It’s the NBA, and he has sucked badly. I’m guessing that since he put on blue and orange, you’ve come full circle on his “upside” and other bullshit like that, but nah, you wrong.

http://knickerblogger.net/knicks-morning-news-2017-12-24/#comment-606749

Do you really think that “Michael Beasley is. historically, a bad NBA player” is on the same level as “KP won the NBA Skills competition so he has tools to be a good passer?” Seriously? Come the fuck on. Seriously?

Again I ask why the Knicks (or any bad-to-middling team) would want to waste a roster slot on a veteran who has no chance of making significant improvements at age 29 nor anything of value to share with young players?

This is ridiculous. You defend your statement that Beasley should be out of the league by saying teams that are rebuilding don’t need his skills. Of course you can win an argument that a player isn’t suited for the NBA by just looking at teams he isn’t suited for. He’s good off of the bench as a scorer. No one but you expect such players to be well above average in advanced metrics. The guys who are well above average are all starters.

I think Beasley is at best a slightly above replacement player, and if you think he’s literally just a replacement level player it’s a toss up whether or not he “belongs” in the nba. It’s not a ridiculous take to say he doesn’t belong in the NBA

There are a lot of folks who called Rose trash when he was doing his “comeback,” loved him when he tried a “comeback” as a Knick (until it became obvious he was washed, which was, like, day 2 for the rest of us), and then trashed him again when he went to the Cavs or wherever he started his “comeback” this year.

If Beasley had put up the same exact season on the Magic or Lakers, the chorus would call him trash and we’d move on. But he’s a Knick, so he gets the blue-and-orange-glasses treatment.

There were many many times when the knicks absolutely needed Beasley in the game. Often, he was the only guy on the floor that was able to score.
Despite all his deficiencies, he’s far above average at putting the ball in the basket, and can do it without an assist.
Whether you like him or not, whether he should be on the knicks roster or not, of course Beasley has a role in the NBA coming off the bench to put points on the board.
. . . plus, until pot is legal everywhere, he’s a good source.

Nick Young runs like a lazy middle schooler being told to run into a headwind

Don’t worry, BBA. Houston’s regular season SRS pretty much guarantees this will be a competitive series.

Golden State is going to sweep them or win in 5 if Draymond keeps his head on his shoulders and CP3 doesn’t injure somebody. The Warriors are a notch above everybody in the league and nobody will win two playoff games against them at full strength. The Cavs had to have an all time great offensive game to avoid getting swept. James Harden played his little heart out and GSW still controlled the action from wire to wire. D’Antoni didn’t help himself by limiting Capella to 30 minutes, but this Warriors team at full strength is simply unbeatable. You have the best motion offense in history and then you have the option to swing it strongside to Durant and let him go one on one and fry the opposing team’s best wing defender until his team sends the double. There is no beating this team, and Golden State will undress the Rockets.

I mean, if you tell me we’re drafting Ricky Rubio but he has none of the flaws actual Rubio has (very poor shooting, struggles finishing inside, doesn’t draw many fouls) and he’s also 6’7″ or 6’8″, I take that guy 1st every time.

Doncic doesn’t need to be a 40%+ 3pt shooter straight away in the league simply because everything else is so advanced. Court vision, passing, rebounding, ability to create, he has shown them all at very high levels in the most competitive scenarios possible outside of the NBA. If his defense holds out ok enough all he needs to do is to be able to shoot decently and he’s a star.

THC-J is starting to worry me, more non-sequiturs than ever.