Knicks Morning News (2018.04.22)

Mitchell is good, but nowhere near Simmons. Simmons is really special. My hope is that in 2 years Frank doesn’t make me regret passing on Mitchell.

I don’t get too irritated about it, though, because while I would have been OK with Mitchell, I would have been really unhappy with DSJr and Monk, and they were all on the table. All things considered, I think we did OK.

Not trading for Rubio…I know a few posters were against it (‘he can’t shoot!’), but it is good to see once again that they are being proven idiots.

Frank Ntilikina probably won’t be as good as Donovan Mitchell ever. However, there is a good chance Ntilikina’s production to the contract I expect him to sign after his rookie deal should be a better value contract than the max deal you’re going to have to give Donovan Mitchell. If Frank Ntilikina really does develop into the best perimeter defender in the NBA and puts up something like 13/5/7 per 36 with good efficiency splits, I’d expect him to sign a contract closer to what Tim Hardaway got and Mitchell to get the Wiggins max.

Would you rather have a guard who averages 25, 4, and 4 per 36 with slightly above average efficiency on a max deal or a perennial DPOY candidate with better passing and rebounding numbers (the book is still out on his scoring efficiency) at under half that max salary?

Of course I’m looking at things through Knicks’ colored glasses, but I think it’s a pretty interesting argument. If Frank becomes the defensive nightmare (and I mean generationally great game wrecking defender) we believe he’s on pace to become and gets his TS% up in the mid 500s, there’s a very good chance his contract extension gets you more value over the long term than the Mitchell Max.

Mitchell looks like a multi-year all-star, possible scoring champion and possible HOFer. Simmons looks like a sure HOFer and possible all-time great.

Ntilikina? sigh…let’s hope for TGHR’s rosy assessment.

Guys like Simmons are a little tricky for me to value.

He’s more of a point forward than point guard.

As a bigger guy, he’s going to attack the boards and get more rebounds than the typical PG, but since he’s a very good ball handler and passer he has the ball all the time. That means he’s going to get way more assists than the typical forward. So naturally, he looks great statistically because he’s doing 1 extra thing than either the typical F or PG. (I’m purposely leaving out the scoring and defense because you can do those things from any position)

However, since he IS doing 1 extra thing, that means there’s going to be another player on the court that’s either doing less than he’s capable of doing or less than a player at that position usually does.

Think of it like this.

When Frank is playing PG, he handles the ball a lot and gets X assists per 36. If Burke plays PG and Frank plays SG, some of Frank’s play making shifts to Burke. If we played Simmons with Frank, the same thing would happen.

The play making isn’t 1 +1 = 2.

There’s some diminishing return.

Unless Frank does something else at SG better than he normally does it at PG, some of his “value to the team” simply shifts away to another player.

That’s sort of what might be happening with Simmons playing PG.

For example, if you played Simmons with Fultz, either Fultz’s assists (and statistical value) will go down or if they split the ball handling both their values will go down a little.

I guess what I would like to know is how much better the 76ers play making is with Simmons handling the ball than it would be with Fultz handling the ball in a more traditional lineup. That’s his real value. I don’t necessarily want to know how much Simmons is personally accruing because he’s versatile enough to do more.

I think looking at Frank as a shooting guard is outdated. He’s more of a 2013 Jason Kidd type shooting guard than he is a Klay Thompson type or a James Harden type. The thing about shooting guard is it is historically the least valuable position on the court. Having a guy play the two who can operate as an off-point guard on offense and then shut down the opposing team’s best guard is a pretty useful player to have. You don’t need a guy to average double digit assists to have the best passing team in the NBA. Russell Westbrook led the NBA in assists per game but the Thunder rank 28th in total assists. The Warriors had the most assists this year with Draymond Green leading the way at 7.3 a night. Having smart, team oriented guys helps a team even if their individual numbers aren’t as strong as some other guys who have to shoulder more responsibility.

I think Mitchell now is like having a star designated hitter. There will be days where he hits everything and wins you the game and days you’re not really able to rely on him because most of what he does is score.

It works so well in Utah because they have every other complementary tool possible in Rubio, Gobert, Ingles and Favors, to provide defense, passing, outside shooting and rebounding. In that case, if he’s just Devin Booker is not a problem, he doesn’t really need to be more than an explosive scorer.

All the +/- stats already have Mitchell as a plus defender. Of course it’s easier to be one when you have Gobert at center, but he’s already far better than Devin Booker ever was or likely ever will be. I’d take him 5th in a redraft. (Top 4 being Ball, Tatum, Bell, Fultz). I still have some worries about his game and how it’s pretty much predicated on volume scoring, but I figure it’ll round out in the next couple years.

We shouldn’t despair though, Frank can still become a great player no matter what Donovan Mitchell does. I wouldn’t worry about it.

Mitchell looks like a superstar in the making, but so did Tyreke Evans. Could end up on the same trajectory. His splits show improvement over the course of the year, but I’m about as invested in monthly trends as indicative of actual change as I am the “rookie wall,” aka regression to the mean.

I’d take any of Mr. Johnson’s four and then I’d also take the high-efficiency rebounding centers over him, as well, since Porzingis is probably going to be a super-stretch 4 long-term.

Hey, we knew the Celtics’ offense was bad without Kyrie, but… this bad?

He’s having an historic rookie campaign, and it can’t be cheapened by crediting his situation.

You can only strengthen it by saying that Gobert is useless on offense and it makes Mitchell take higher-difficult shots. Total nonsense, but you could go that route.

Serious question: how is it historic?

And the only reason that he doesn’t go first in a redraft is that he doesn’t have the highest ceiling, but he surely has the highest floor. There’s not a single major concern about his game, while every other draftee has a major gap to fill.

I’m not concerned about any rookie, really. Bennett was historically bad in his rookie year, but I wouldn’t have advocated trading him after it unless it were for a serious value player. (They should never have drafted him, but once you make the pick, the value plummets.)

I’m still high on Isaac. I might take him over Bell and Fultz if he never learns to shoot properly again.

Isaac 87 ORtg, 104 DRtg

Bell 121 ORtg, 103 DRtg

I would love to be dealing with you as a GM.

He’s also a full 3 years younger and a twig right now. Also doesn’t play on the one of the greatest teams in history.

When Frank is playing PG, he handles the ball a lot and gets X assists per 36. If Burke plays PG and Frank plays SG, some of Frank’s play making shifts to Burke. If we played Simmons with Frank, the same thing would happen.

The play making isn’t 1 +1 = 2.

There’s some diminishing return.

This is the same sort of argument that was used by some (not you) to say that Chris Paul + James Harden was going to bring diminishing returns. That argument turned out to be wrong. The Rockets were practically unbeatable in the regular season when both of those guys played.

You basically need 2 elite playmakers to compete for Championship nowadays.

Spurs had Parker/Ginobili, Heat had Lebron/Wade, Cavs had Lebron/Kyrie and GSW had Draymond/Curry.

Serious question: how is it historic?

https://thesportspost.com/nba-mitchell-historic-rookie-season/

the other thing about bell is that if you look at the per 36 for West Pachulia Looney and even Javale, there’s a pretty noticeable statistical tailwind from playing one of those spots for these Dubs. Not to demean Bell, I thought it was crazy when Chicago sold him and he’s looked really nice as a rookie, but between Bell and Mitchell or Tatum I don’t think it’s even close right now.

I’m bullish on Mitchell, but that article mostly fawns over his usage and compares him favorably to the worst MVP award-winner since Iverson. I can say that I’d love to have him on the Knicks, but the guy shot worse than league-average. I don’t care what his usage is or what his crunch-time volume comes out to be.

Well, weren’t there rumours about LeBron wanting Jackson too? It would not be the first entry on the list of good basketball players that may actually know a lot less than we expect of them about the game.

Fat Lever was sort of like the Russell Westbrook of his day, a boxscore-stuffing guard who got loads of rebounds and assists. We’d all be turning cartwheels if Ntilikina turned out to be anywhere near as good as Fat.

Fat Lever was sort of like the Russell Westbrook of his day, a boxscore-stuffing guard who got loads of rebounds and assists. We’d all be turning cartwheels if Ntilikina turned out to be anywhere near as good as Fat.

Yeah, looking at his stats he had a pretty nice career and I’d be pretty happy if that’s what Ntilikina turned into. Just surprised that I’ve never heard of him.

Didn’t Keer replace Lee with Draymond when he first got the job. I’d probably support the guys giving me minutes too.

I remember that; and, aside from personality, do we really want a coach that plays Lee over Greene?

I just want Manu Ginobili to play until he’s like 50 or something. What a fantastic player

Amen. Manu is my favorite player ever.

If he retires let’s let him coach the Knicks.

Lee’s thing sounded more like him being locked in with Jackson as the guys who don’t get credit because of how good the team played after them, which is weird, considering that Lee won a title there.

This is the same sort of argument that was used by some (not you) to say that Chris Paul + James Harden was going to bring diminishing returns. That argument turned out to be wrong. The Rockets were practically unbeatable in the regular season when both of those guys played.

I understand what you are saying, but I think about it differently.

When you say there are going to be diminishing returns, that does mean you are saying the combination will not work or make the team better. You are saying individual players will do a little less of some of the things they did before.

Let’s say we value players on a scale of 1-10 and we call both Harden and Paul a 10.

Now let’s say Harden was playing with a 7 previously. His backcourt last year was a 10+ 7 = 17.

Now Houston switches to Paul who is a 10.

The question is will you get 10 + 10 = 20 even though they both handle the ball and get a lot of assists?

The reality is both of them have fewer assists per 36 this year than they had last year. So in the area that overlapped, both did a bit less. However, even though Houston didn’t get 10 + 10 = 20, maybe they got 9.75 + 9.75 = 19.50 and improved their backcourt and team a lot.

This is the team building aspect of the game. You can only fit so much scoring, rebounding, play making, and other skills on the court at one time. The idea is to put together a team of individuals with different skills that maximizes the amount of each skill you can get on the court.

Personally, “I” find valuing “point forwards” interesting (guys like Bird, James, Draymond Green, Simmons and even Magic). They are bigger guys. So they rebound well. But since they are also good play makers, they get a lot of assists. That makes them look amazing statistically (especially if they also score well). But if you are team building, you would probably not put them on the same team as Stockton, Nash, or some other elite play making PG. You are already getting the play making from them, so you would probably be better off putting them with some elite scoring small man that can defend the better PGs in the league. You won’t have to worry much about whether that guy is a great play maker or not like you would ordinarily if you were using a traditional PG.

But how do you value that?

The stats are going to say your PG is not very good because all he does is score. They are also going to say your point forward is god like because he rebounds, make plays, and piles up triple doubles. But that arrangement might be a better combination than the same point forward with a traditional pass first PG that the stats will like a lot better going in.

I mean, I think Draymond Green is a GREAT player to team with Curry.

Who wants Curry getting 10 assists a night when he’s one of the greatest scorers in the history of the NBA?

I want him shooting!

To me, that Curry/Green combination has great value because Green can do a lot of the play making. But if you stuck Green on a team with great play making PG, his assists would go down and he’d look a little less valuable.

Yeah, there’s a huge difference between Draymond, Giannis or even LeBron and Simmons. Simmons is just a PG who happens to be 6’10”.

The only issue of pairing him with a CP3 type is that well, he still can’t really shoot, but I’m pretty sure the guy is just so talented it would work out.

Holy shit Jose Calderon has played 20 minutes of playoff basketball

I think having Mike Budenholzer coach the Knicks would be so beautiful. I think he’d single handedly run Kanter out of town and Tim Hardaway Jr would probably remember how to play defense again.

Only the Pelicans made it out of the first playoff round unbeaten. I did not expect that outcome. Although I am not surprised that San Antonio found a way to win at least one game against Golden state.

If, as the Berman story claims, the Knicks are really Bud’s top choice, AND the Hawks just want to save money and won’t need a draft pick, I think you shut down the rest of the search after the first round of interviews and hire this guy. He’d probably cost us some ping pong balls next year, even factoring in Porzingis’ injury, but he’s the talent development guy, the defensive guru, and culture change guy we’ve all been waiting for forever. Go get him.

Phil made me forget that we can use cash for other things besides paying the 2010 Bulls.

That’s a great line.

I guess Atlanta just wants to fire Bud so helping them save $13mm is enough compensation for them. We should be able to get this done with money or a nominal 2nd round pick. As much as I value 2nd round picks, I would happily give one of the Willy picks up for Bud.

If, as the Berman story claims, the Knicks are really Bud’s top choice, AND the Hawks just want to save money and won’t need a draft pick, I think you shut down the rest of the search after the first round of interviews and hire this guy. He’d probably cost us some ping pong balls next year, even factoring in Porzingis’ injury, but he’s the talent development guy, the defensive guru, and culture change guy we’ve all been waiting for forever. Go get him.

I generally agree, in that he is head and shoulders above the other candidates. It’d just be a question of the compensation. I’d be fine giving up two seconds for him even (like the Magic did for Stan Van Gundy), but no firsts. I don’t see how they don’t ask for a first, though. He’s a highly in-demand coach. Any notion of “They just want to get out of his contract” is silly – the Celtics also wanted out from Doc’s contract and they still got a first for him. If you have an in-demand asset under contract, you don’t give him away to get out from paying him. It’s just illogical.

Although, it also seems odd that Budz would leave a team that plans on tanking in 2018-19 for a team that…plans on tanking in 2018-19 (unless the Knicks are dumber than we even imagine and will try to make the playoffs somehow in 2018-19).

Although, it also seems odd that Budz would leave a team that plans on tanking in 2018-19 for a team that…plans on tanking in 2018-19 (unless the Knicks are dumber than we even imagine and will try to make the playoffs somehow in 2018-19).

I think we probably have to split hairs and look at it as a choice between two rebuilding paths:

1. The Hawks will be trying The Process, and may spend many seasons trying to tank.

2. The Knicks are probably (hopefully?) going to tank this next season, but they want to be active in free agency next summer, at which point KP will hopefully be healthy and surrounded by a more developed Frank, this year’s lottery pick, next year’s lottery pick, TH2 (a player Budz has worked very well with), and whatever free agents Perry signs. Budz would be coming in at the end of the really painful rebuilding stuff, which would be more palatable than coaching a team that’s just trying to collect assets for four years down the line.

Although, it also seems odd that Budz would leave a team that plans on tanking in 2018-19 for a team that…plans on tanking in 2018-19

Maybe he just see KP, Frank and this year 1st as better prospects than whatever the Hawks has to offer in the near future.

There’s no official rule, but generally speaking, so long as a guy is getting a promotion, you don’t need to give up compensation for him. So Borrego wouldn’t cost a draft pick.

It’s the front office that matters. I remain much more interested in Ujiri than Budenholzer. If we get the latter I won’t complain though.

I don’t see how they don’t ask for a first, though. He’s a highly in-demand coach. Any notion of “They just want to get out of his contract” is silly – the Celtics also wanted out from Doc’s contract and they still got a first for him. If you have an in-demand asset under contract, you don’t give him away to get out from paying him. It’s just illogical.

He may be in demand but they can’t create a market for him. He’s under contract and in complete control of where he wants to go. They can’t trade him to Phoenix if he doesn’t want to coach there. If they ask for a first or two seconds and we say no, they have the following two choices:

– Pay this guy we don’t want $13 million
– Hire a guy we want for less and get some of Dolan’s money

Whatever happened between the Clippers and Celtics doesn’t really matter here and is just noise. The Clippers were desperate for Rivers, and Ainge made it clear that he was fine keeping Rivers. He was probably bluffing but LA didn’t want to call it. We can afford to call Atlanta’s bluff because we have other options.

The Hawks have already said that they’re fine keeping him, as well.

You can call that, though, and see if it’s a bluff. If they really mean it, then we should hire someone else.

This will all come down to who plays their cards the best between Knicks mgmt, Hawks mgmt, and Budenholzer. Usually we lose those games, but who knows.

@74

One strength of having a 6’10 PG is that he can handle any PG matchup besides the smallest, speediest ones like vintage IT, and in that situation you can switch with the SG or SF without creating any mismatches, because Simmons is still 6’10! It’s downright unfair!

Plus, you know, Embiid in the middle.

I might actually be sorta excited if the Knicks hired Budenholzer, who seems like a good fit for the current roster and who is a “no-drama” type guy. Hiring Bud would be the kind of thing a normal NBA franchise would do, and it would be the opposite of a Dolan’s Razor type move.

This is kind of like the ultimate test for Dolan’s Razor. Behind curtain A you have Mark Jackson. Behind curtain B you have Anybody Else. If the Knicks go with curtain A we can say for certain that the Razor is an incontrovertible law.

If we have to compensate Atlanta it doesn’t have to be picks “or” cash. It can be a little of “both”.

If everyone agrees that Budenholzer is the “best coach available”, then I wouldn’t be too worried about giving away some combination of cash and a 2nd round pick. Maybe they want a first, but if no one is willing to give them one (imo we shouldn’t), the combination of saving money and the 2nd rounder might be enough to get the job done.

Remember, he is saying the reason he wants to leave Atlanta is that they seem to be going into all out 76er tank mode and he doesn’t want to go that route. That means they are probably going to be bad for another 4-6 years at least. If they don’t get something for him now or next year, he’s going to leave at the end of his contract anyway. So they could pay him a ton of money and then lose him for nothing.

Remember, he is saying the reason he wants to leave Atlanta is that they seem to be going into all out 76er tank mode and he doesn’t want to go that route. That means they are probably going to be bad for another 4-6 years at least. If they don’t get something for him now or next year, he’s going to leave at the end of his contract anyway. So they could pay him a ton of money and then lose him for nothing.

In addition he might just coach the Hawks so well that he actively inhibits them from tanking effectively.

Wait until we add Mikal Bridges. (i hope)

He’s been destined to go one pick in front of us ever since we beat Cleveland on the last day of the season. No way that doesn’t bite us.

Also, your name kinda jinxed it, too.

Noah’s beard.

He’s been destined to go one pick in front of us ever since we beat Cleveland on the last day of the season. No way that doesn’t bite us.

Also, your name kinda jinxed it, too.

Unfortunately, I think you are right. I’ll change the name as soon as I think of something even mildly clever, but it may be too late. 🙂

@87

Well, we could always end up with Miles as the Knickerblogger prophecy has been telling for a year now.

I can’t see Chicago taking Mikal over Bamba, but you never know. The Bulls, or the Knicks for that matter, could move up to the top 3, which would change things.

I just wouldn’t be able to wrap my head around Sexton. Carter could make sense. I could even talk myself into Miles Bridges. But Sexton would give us such a logjam, it would likely mean a Frank trade was in the works. It seems like Porter could even drop to us at this point.

This new ESPN mock draft has Mikal Bridges available at 9. But I think it goes by a straight player ranking system and doesn’t factor in what teams are likely to draft based on their needs.

http://www.espn.com/nba/lottery2018/mockdraft#

We need two teams in front of us to take Porter and Carter.

This new ESPN mock draft has Mikal Bridges available at 9. But I think it goes by a straight player ranking system and doesn’t factor in what teams are likely to draft based on their needs.

Yeah, that was always how they did things at their old site, so I guess they’re still doing it even now that they’ve become ESPN’s NBA Draft guys (replacing the disgraced Ford).

No matter what, we can’t let Philly get Mikal.

@sbordow
Breaking news: Suns have spoke to Jason Kidd and Vinny Del Negro about their coaching job.

The highest paid Knick.

https://nypost.com/2018/04/23/joakim-noah-emerges-from-knicks-exile-looking-different/

i think alexander is the sleeper as far as PG’s go…but i dont see how you can go wrong in this lottery. outside of top 4 picks the rest are all close; mikal and carter being taken before us if we pick 9.
bamba/ KP frontcourt would be wildly entertaining.

My hope is that someone maybe takes Trae high up enough that another team that really needs a guard, say, Orlando, panics and takes Sexton above our slot, giving us a decent choice of wings and bigs.

Re: Miles, he’s not my top choice, but I do think his motor and athleticism makes up for his lack of length a little. Heck, his sophomore season was roughly the same as Mikal’s if you go by WS/40, although he’s obviously not the defender Mikal is.

He will have to learn to defend small forwards and shoot threes at a great clip to stick as a starter in the league, but I’m rooting for him. Idk maybe it’s because he reminds me of Larry Johnson a little, lol.

Alexander would be an interesting pick. Not against it.

@Strat RE: Miles Bridges – https://www.thestepien.com/2018/03/01/miles-bridges-shot-diversity-part-two/

That’s a pretty good read on some below the surface level improvements he made as a shot creator.

I’m a Michigan guy so I watch alot of Big Ten ball and him playing out of position as a 3 all year certainly didn’t help his cause with the cramped spacing and lack of ability take advantage of speed advantage like he could as a 4. At his size though you have to wonder if he can play the 4 in the NBA even with teams going “smaller”. There are guys I think will still be on the board at 9 I’d prefer to him, so he’s not my favorite, but I’d be fine with him as the pick.

Wendell Carter seems to me like an obviously better prospect than Mikal Bridges. Carter is very well-rounded– can shoot, can score inside, is an impact defender, sets good screens… I have little doubt that Carter will be a good NBA player.

I like both of these guys alot. I think I like Mikal slightly more because I imagine him taking all the shots Lance did and that makes me happy.

They’re both lower usage cog types on offense, but they’re the kind of guys who, I believe, do the small things that help make an offense flow more so you can run more sets than alot of the stagnant ISO/post-up and super basic PnR stuff we saw the last couple of years.

Scalabrine, who clashed with Preacher Mark Jackson as a Warriors assistant, surprisingly praised him in a recent interview.

“It was like no locker room I’ve ever been a part of, just his technique for motivating guys to run through a wall for him,” Scalabrine told the Daily News. “And if I had a young team I would definitely think about hiring a guy like Mark because there’s a certain amount of development that has to happen in the NBA. And guys need to take strides. And confidence is a big part of it. And he knows how to bring out that confidence.”

I’m as big a Preacher Mark hater as anyone, but it is interesting that Scal took the blame for their feud and pitched him for the Knicks job.

Scalabrine works for the Cs so he’s just trying to fuck us up.

Noah does not exactly look focused on resuming his playing career

He went to Boise State, he’s a senior, and he had a lot of turnovers.

Wendell Carter seems to me like an obviously better prospect than Mikal Bridges. Carter is very well-rounded– can shoot, can score inside, is an impact defender, sets good screens… I have little doubt that Carter will be a good NBA player.

I like Carter more than Bridges too, but I think he’s more likely to be gone before #9. Plus, I think he’s more of a C than PF. Longer term, unless you feel very confident he’s going to be better than Bridges, we need a wing more than another C. KP is eventually going to be our C.

We want the best player available, but if we are honest with ourselves, a lot of the time the players are too close to know which will be the better player.

Good lord the T-Wolves got cooked in the 3rd quarter. They should just quit and go home.

it’s crazy the rockets aren’t even having an outlandish shooting game (though they were on fire in the third). But they have one turnover on 73 fga which is just incredible.

Can you even imagine giving up 50 points in a quarter? Even the Knicks would have a hard time giving up that many points in a quarter.

Just a reminder that the Knicks could have had Rubio for Derrick Rose.

James Harden is absolutely insane, that was one of the most impressive dismantling of a team I’ve seen in a long time. He literally outscored the entire Wolves team by himself in the 3rd.

I like this Jazz team so much. All their pieces complement each other, they play with insane intensity and efficiently at the same time. It’s really a joy to watch if you like basketball. So many underrated players with extremely solid coaching.

At this point it’s honestly just sad to watch. He’s 5/18. How is he so unable to understand that he should not be shooting?

Poor Melo

The previous game Melo had an efficient line, unlike tonight’s result. But I am not sure this is his fault. It seems like Westbrook bears a lot of the blame. He’s the point guard and had 3 assists in 36 minutes.

Maybe they need more time to gel?