Statistical Analysis. Humor. Knicks.

Saturday, September 21, 2019

SNY: Mitchell Robinson, Allonzo Trier talk expectations for Knicks’ 2019-20 season

Ian Begley continues his fine work at his new digs with a quick interview with Mitchell Robinson and Allonzo Trier about the upcoming season at the NBA Rookie Development Program.

Trier talked about shooting more threes and Robinson discussed his recurring foul trouble, noting, “I slide my feet more than I did (at the beginning of his rookie season). The game kind of slowed down for me at the end of last season. So the only thing I can do now is pick up where I left off last season, which is continue to stay out of foul trouble and get better.”

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86 comments on “SNY: Mitchell Robinson, Allonzo Trier talk expectations for Knicks’ 2019-20 season

  1. KnickfaninNJ

    Since his preferred statistics over values players from winning teams I am not surprised by his opinion.

  2. Brian Cronin Post author

    How ridiculous is Anthony Davis’ “I prefer not to play center” nonsense? I mean, fine ,start someone else there to kick off the game, but he’s got to be playing center for a lot of the game, right? Otherwise, what a waste.

    Although….I guess that could be a good pitch for him to come play for the Knicks! “Hey, you can be the 4 here, if you’d like!”

  3. Stratomatic: Sometimes referred to as Satan

    When you ask a natural SF to play PF or a natural PF to play C, they know they are going to face an opponent that’s bigger and stronger than they would have faced at their natural position. They also know on some nights it’s going to be a lot more physical and take a greater toll on their body over the course of the season. That’s why they all resist it.

    He’s going to wind up playing some C. He probably just doesn’t want to go up against the real big bruisers at C.

  4. JK47

    Mets rush back a not fully healed JD Davis, Davis gets key pinch hit single, Callaway fails to pinch run for him, Davis re-injures calf and has to be removed from game while running bases

    Mickey Callaway, ladies and gentlemen!

  5. rama got that Fizdale Magic

    Although….I guess that could be a good pitch for him to come play for the Knicks! “Hey, you can be the 4 here, if you’d like!”

    I don’t know how many times I post that AD is the Knicks’ focus for 2020, but whatever, at least I get to link back to all my posts once it happens.

  6. The Honorable Cock Jowles

    Saw Weyes Blood last night in Portland. Excellent live band with a tall task of replicating that album’s sound, not to mention her vocals being 100% on point. Not sure if you know the live band, JK47, but they are very very good.

  7. JK47

    I don’t know any of the cats in her current touring band. I think it’s an entirely new lineup this time around. I saw the thing they did on KCRW and that sounded pretty great.

  8. alsep73

    Hooray for a new thread!

    Also, semi on-topic: if you like Begley’s work, or that of any other beat writer, make sure to click on their articles when they get linked to here or elsewhere, rather than just relying on a summary like the one Brian provided here. Even if you’re not going to read it, the click is the only currency by which most writers survive in the current media economy hellscape.

  9. The Honorable Cock Jowles

    The guitarist looked vaguely like Duane Denison and I was very confused for a second

  10. Stratomatic: Sometimes referred to as Satan

    I don’t know if anyone else here has seen this, but OHHHHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAAAAAA!

    You can’t stop Frank. You can only hope to contain him.

  11. Stratomatic: Sometimes referred to as Satan

    I’m not a huge fan of the Wins Produced model, but I like a lot of Arturo’s work. Out of all of them, he always seemed most open to trying to understand the game and values better in situations where the model almost obviously missed the mark.

    To me, the key to the Knicks under/over is Knox. He was so horrific last year, if he got hurt they probably would have won 5 or more games more. Depending on how well he plays (or does not play), that could be a difference maker.

  12. Stratomatic: Sometimes referred to as Satan

    Frank has obviously finally figured it out.

    We need to extend him before he asks for a trade to Dallas.

  13. Z-man

    My problem with guys like Arturo (and other extremely bright folks who think like him) is:

    -them draw conclusions based on static assumptions
    -they minimize potential synergistic effects and player development

    In this case, he’s correct in saying that on paper, the Knicks are a good “under” bet. But he starts by saying that historically, they have been an excellent under bet, which is true but not really applicable in a scientific sense…granted, there was a bit of tongue-in-cheek tone to this assertion. He then goes on to talk about fit, which is very hard to project with this team. Only 3 players on the team are at an age where further development is extremely unlikely (Gibson, Bullock and Ellington) and the team is not counting on them to improve. Young players will either develop or not, but the possibility is there for substantial development and the probability is that at least some will develop significantly. It’s a matter of who….and how the coach will respond to new data. For example, if Knox doesn’t develop but still plays significant minutes (as opposed to being sent to G-League) then the team will lose more games. If Mitch does develop but the team goes all-in with Portis as a 20-30 mpg C, then the team will lose more games.

    The most interesting point he makes is that a good barometer is whether the FO would be upset if the team finished with an “under” record. He concludes that the Knicks FO would be content with another high-ish lottery pick, which is at least partially true. However, I think an equally strong argument could be made that management is hoping to make some noise to put this year’s bad press re: Kyrie/Durant behind them. Being in the playoff hunt, at least until the all-star break, would be a desirable outcome. Fiz needs to win some games to re-establish himself as a viable long-term coach, so that’s a factor that should weigh in favor of more wins.

  14. Z-man

    I personally don’t feel confident in the over, but there is so much uncertainty about this team right now that the range of outcomes is quite wide. There’s probably a hard ceiling at 40 wins and a hard floor at 20 wins. 29 +/- 4, i.e. 25-33 wins seems like a reasonably likely standard deviation range.

  15. Silky Johnson, Fleet Admiral of the Tank Armada

    If the line is 29.5, I think I just barely take the over. There’s clear kncentives for both Fiz and the FO to win games this year (their jobs + general deputation), and I imagine Fiz will allocate minutes based on what he takes to be merit (that is, probably overvaluing vets and netting us marginal wins bc of it). I definitely don’t think it’s an easy under bet at 29.5–I think it’s pretty close to a coin flip. I have this team pegged at 30 wins this year.

  16. Brian Cronin Post author

    I don’t know how many times I post that AD is the Knicks’ focus for 2020, but whatever, at least I get to link back to all my posts once it happens.

    If their “focus” means planning their moves on the hopes that Anthony Davis wants out of Los Angeles after a season and that he decides that New York is the place to be, then that is some shitty planning. “Maybe Anthony Davis will want to play here for some reason, let’s base our entire offseason around that unlikely possibility!”

  17. Z-man

    One critique that I find particularly annoying is that they went out and signed a bunch of PFs this off-season. It’s true on a superficial level, but:
    1) The FO/coach have made it clear that they are committed to “positionless” basketball.
    2) There really wasn’t a legit starting SF, a starting or back-up PF, or a back-up C on the roster (I think they see Knox as a 3) so it made sense to concentrate on that position
    3) They signed Randle, Portis, Gibson and Morris. All can be loosely defined as PFs, but they each have a different skillset. Randle is a traditional 4 who will see the most minutes as a 4 with some minutes as a 5 in a small lineup. Portis is a back-up C (he said so himself) with stretch 4-5 capability. Morris is a 3-4 swingman with a versatile skillset. Gibson is a backup utility player at this point.

    So you needed at least 3 of the 4 guys we signed for the starting and backup PF and backup C position. Granted, we could have just rolled with Kornet and Vonleh, but the larger point is that they filled positions of need and if anything they signed only one big too many. A rosy way of looking at it is that they have lots of front-court options to counteract anything the opposing offense throws at them. All of the guys that were signed are at least athletic enough to play team defense on the perimeter and inside.

  18. Z-man

    Yeah, I think the AD chatter is nonsense. If anything, they are positioning themselves to have cap flexibility for whatever develops in the market, and AD is only a “dream scenario” part of that.

  19. bobneptune

    Best wishes to David Blatt the guy who should have been the coach of last year’s iteration of the KNICKS: a teacher of basketball and not a flim flam man who was going to mysteriously attract star players with his “used car salesman” skill set.

    I’m guessing Blatt with his record of excellence in Europe would have been a better choice to connect with KP and actually teach BB to the young players last year. But what the bleep do I know :-)

    https://www.eurohoops.net/en/euroleague/920965/920965/?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter

  20. Z-man

    If anything, I can see the Knicks getting involved in a “disgruntled superstar” or contender cap space trade at the deadline. Maybe like a Bradley Beal thing…

  21. Brian Cronin Post author

    Yeah, I think the AD chatter is nonsense. If anything, they are positioning themselves to have cap flexibility for whatever develops in the market, and AD is only a “dream scenario” part of that.

    Yeah, they’re clearly intentionally planning on having cap flexibility, but it’d be pretty ill-considered if they did it all on the off chance that Davis wanted to come here next year.

  22. Brian Cronin Post author

    It’s really surprising to me that Iman Shumpert hasn’t found a team yet. You’d think he’d be a good fit for most contenders on a minimum deal. Same with Shaun Livingston, JR Smith, Thabo Sefolosha and Kenneth Faried. Trey Burke is a bit more of a wild card, but still, I’m a bit surprised he doesn’t have a gig, as well. He might have to go overseas to re-establish himself before he returns to the NBA.

  23. Brian Cronin Post author

    We’ve discussed this before, but man, if so many talented players can’t find gigs, the NBA probably should expand again.

  24. DS

    Trey Burke found a gig with the Sixers! I didn’t really watch Jeremy Lin last year, but I’d imagine he could fill a third-stringer slot. It sounds like he’ll go to China instead, though.

  25. Brian Cronin Post author

    D’oh! Thanks, Dan! Good signing for the Sixers. And yeah, it makes too much sense for Lin not to go to China. He’ll get paid well, be treated like a superstar and if he proves he’s healthy, he might get an NBA gig the next season. It makes more sense than holding out to maaaaaaybe sign with an NBA team to be the third-string point guard.

  26. Stratomatic: Sometimes referred to as Satan

    Having an extra big man doesn’t seem like much of a problem to me either. It’s fairly likely that if Robinson starts, he’s going to be in foul trouble more often than the typical C anyway. There will probably be enough minutes to go around. I think it might have been better to have 1 extra SF instead, but whatever. I see Knox’s future as a PF when he fills out and gets stronger. So it might have been interesting to give him some minutes at the stretch PF position against certain matchups. It will be harder with than glut. We don’t really have our future SF position covered unless we move one of the smaller wings there. I’d say Frank, but he’ll be too tall and strong for SF by the start of the season at the rate he’s growing. haha

  27. Z-man

    I’m not sure that the players you mentioned are out of jobs because there’s so much talent that we need to expand. It’s more likely due to reasons like they are looking for more than minimum $ because they can get far more than that playing overseas, or that teams are looking to see whether younger players will pan out before committing a roster spot to a vet who should play if he’s on the roster. Teams like the Lakers and Rockets still have holes to fill, and players will get injured in training camp and in preseason. All of those guys are very flawed and none would be guaranteed rotation players on any team. JR comes with big distractions.

  28. Z-man

    Knox might occasionally play PF in a small lineup, but he’s not really strong enough to either guard bigger 4’s or protect the rim in a more traditional lineup. He would get eaten alive by guys like Blake, AD, Ibaka, Giannis, Horford (who should play a lot at the 4.) His best hope is to move his feet fast enough on D to stay in front of most 3’s and then to punish them on offense. My guess is that he’ll play nearly exclusively at the 3 this year, especially given the many options at the 4 and the FO’s commitment to becoming longer and more athletic across the board.

  29. JK47

    Knox doesn’t seem to have the ability to guard any position well. I would think the FO drafted him to be a stretch four, but indeed he seems to lack the physicality to bang with many NBA PFs.

    I mean I guess it’s the positionless NBA now but he’s a little slow for a 3.

  30. Z-man

    @36 true, but he does have length and should develop enough strength to compensates for some of his slowness vs. 3’s. He also has the size/release point to shoot over smaller players and seems capable of drawing fouls by driving vs. smaller players. I’m thinking the FO visualized a Tobias Harris/Jayson Tatum-type of forward…and those guys are much more 3’s than 4’s.

    Put another way, he probably will be a lousy defender at either position for the foreseeable future but has more upside/less downside at the 3 in a traditional big lineup. MRob-Randle-Knox is a rangy front line. RJ/Ellington/Dotson/Trier and even Bullock and Iggy can all be big 2’s. Payton and RJ can both be big 1’s. In 1-2-3-4-5 order:

    Payton-_____-Knox-_____-Mitch seems to be the best big lineup involving Knox.

    DSjr-Trier-_____-Knox-_____ seems to be the best small lineup involving Knox.

  31. TheClashFan

    Mets rush back a not fully healed JD Davis, Davis gets key pinch hit single, Callaway fails to pinch run for him, Davis re-injures calf and has to be removed from game while running bases

    Mickey Callaway, ladies and gentlemen!

    Ah, not blaming Callaway. Botching injured players is a staple of the Mets brand. I bet it is a requirement for all managers!

  32. Stratomatic: Sometimes referred to as Satan

    Knox might occasionally play PF in a small lineup, but he’s not really strong enough to either guard bigger 4’s or protect the rim in a more traditional lineup. He would get eaten alive by guys like Blake, AD, Ibaka, Giannis, Horford (who should play a lot at the 4.)

    Agree.

    He’s too slow to guard 3s now and it’s only going to get worse as he fills out and slows down. To me, PF is his position down the line. He’s just not strong enough to bang with those guys yet. He’s barely out of puberty. When I saw him last year I could barely believe how under developed he was. He’s going to get a LOT stronger.

    Still, the’ll be an occasional matchup where it’s OK and I’d like to see him get minutes there when possible.

  33. Z-man

    I don’t agree that you necessarily slow down as you fill out, especially at his age. Developing “burst” muscles and doing footwork/balance drills makes you quicker, as well as just learning to recognize schemes and to anticipate player movements based on film study and experience.

    I’ve mentioned this before, but Knox has very large feet for his size and I felt he was tripping himself up a lot last year just trying to maneuver those feet around each other. Again, that should be improved with age, training and experience.

  34. rama got that Fizdale Magic

    If their “focus” means planning their moves on the hopes that Anthony Davis wants out of Los Angeles after a season and that he decides that New York is the place to be, then that is some shitty planning.

    I didn’t say I thought it was smart, I just think it IS part of their plan. And the reason it isn’t totally ridiculous is you guys underestimate the role of agents in this equation. They have a lot of contact with FOs about a lot of possibilities, and if AD said publicly he wants the Knicks, you know the agent gave some sense of how that could happen. For instance, that AD doesn’t like being LeBron’s lackey. Will that be how it goes? Maybe, maybe not, but historically you don’t see a lot of joy from LeBron’s teammates. So the FO is crossing their fingers and staying flexible.

    Makes a lot more sense than Giannis, who never once mentioned coming to the Knicks in free agency.

  35. Stratomatic: Sometimes referred to as Satan

    @40

    Well, if he gets quicker, he’ll be OK at SF. Maybe he’ll get quicker for a couple of years and then slow down. Typically as you bulk up (which he is going to do a lot of over the next few years) you slow down.

  36. TheOakmanCometh

    Knox should bulk up enough to bang with PFs in a few years. His Turkish league opponents won’t know what hit them!

  37. Stratomatic: Sometimes referred to as Satan

    Knox should bulk up enough to bang with PFs in a few years. His Turkish league opponents won’t know what hit them!

    Frank at C and Knox at PF should work well in Turkey. :-)

  38. Z-man

    @42, Almost every 19yo bulks up in their early 20’s as part of the natural filling out process. Usually they get a lot stronger but not really any slower. Unless you’re talking about Eddy Curry.

    I mean, is Giannis slower now than he was as a rookie? Is AD? Was LeBron slower at age 23 than at age 19? Westbrook? Wall? KD?

  39. Stratomatic: Sometimes referred to as Satan

    I mean, is Giannis slower now than he was as a rookie? Is AD? Was LeBron slower at age 23 than at age 19? Westbrook? Wall? KD?

    Probably not from 19 to 23, but players aren’t even at their peak at 23. I would say Lebron, Westbrook, Wall, and KD are all a little slower now than at their peak. Guys like that are such extraordinary athletes that any slowdown is hardly noticeable because it occurs so slowly over time and the starting point was so high. IMO Knox is going to be a PF. The quibble is over the exact age. I said eventually because I don’t know when. I just know he will at some point while still in his peak years. He belongs there now on offense, he’s just too weak to handle it defensively.

  40. swiftandabundant

    AD or Giannis would be cool. But I think, unless DSJ really takes a leap, the guy we should be targeting as our next big free agent signing is DeArron Fox!

    Young, going to be a star in the league, PG (a position we are always trying to fill) and he is a two way player (or can be). And he’s in Sacramento. Sure, they’re kind of a fun, upstart team but unless they turn in the early 2000s Kings is he really gonna want to stay in Sactown?

    You get a core of Fox, Barrett, Mitch, Randle…you got something cooking.

  41. JK47

    Knox is going to be a bad defender regardless of what position he plays. He doesn’t have high IQ awareness on either side of the ball and he damn sure doesn’t have it on defense. He also seems like a tweener who is too slow to play good perimeter defense and too soft to play interior defense.

    I think he’s more of a stretch 4 long-term, somebody you can use to take advantage of certain matchups.

  42. Farfa

    Best case for Knox is a homeless man’s Rashard Lewis. A 9th-10th man with situational relevance on a few playoff teams. Hoping for more is welcome but it’s better to be realist.

    (He will straight up dominate the Big3 League, though)

  43. Stratomatic: Sometimes referred to as Satan

    Chris Iseman
    @ChrisIseman
    The Knicks have officially announced that Mike Miller has been added to the coaching staff. Miller had spent the last four years as the head coach of the Westchester Knicks.

    Chris Iseman
    @ChrisIseman
    Fizdale: “Mike is an accomplished and respected coach who has been an integral member of the Knicks family the last four years with Westchester. Mike is a great addition to the staff, a relentless worker who shares our approach to the game with an expertise in player development.

  44. Hubert

    the guy we should be targeting as our next big free agent signing is DeArron Fox!

    Alas, we figured out tanking one year too late.

    I thought Fox would have been the modern day Frazier if we’d been smart enough to position ourselves for him. Not sure how you expect to pry him out of Sacto before 2024, though.

  45. Z-man

    Best case for Knox is a homeless man’s Rashard Lewis. A 9th-10th man with situational relevance on a few playoff teams.

    Knox is going to be a bad defender regardless of what position he plays. He doesn’t have high IQ awareness on either side of the ball and he damn sure doesn’t have it on defense. He also seems like a tweener who is too slow to play good perimeter defense and too soft to play interior defense.”

    I really don’t get the hard ceiling you guys are putting on Knox. I mean, you realize that he turned 20 just 8 days ago, right? I feel very strongly that his best comparison is Tobias Harris. Their college stats were very similar (Knox was a better 3-pt shooter). Some of the negativity in Knox’s stats were inflated by his being thrust into the role of an abjectly tanking team’s go-to player and having zero accountability. He played more minutes anbd took way more shots than Harris did in his first 2 seasons combined, and shot way better from 3 than Harris did. He’s also a much better athlete than you guys are giving him credit for being. He’s got good transition speed, handles the ball reasonably well for a guy his size, and has made lots of reasonably athletic plays in isolation. He has a very promising 3-pt stroke. His moves are awkward and often result in an off-balance running fling, but he’s not inept. Sure, he looked dumb out there, but he shouldn’t have been made to look so dumb by playing 2100 minutes either…only 17 teenagers in the history of the game played that many minutes.

    I just think it’s pretty cynical to conclude that his rebounding numbers are etched in stone or that his defense can’t improve significantly or that he can’t improve his efficiency on offense. Why don’t we wait and see how he looks when he’s a complementary player surrounded by smarter and better players, and being held accountable on a team that actually cares about winning?

  46. JK47

    Tobias Harris is probably like the 90 percentile outcome for Knox. Which is not an impossible outcome!

    Thing is though, Harris was actually a pretty good player at age 19, like magnitudes better than our Knoxie. He had a 50 point higher eFG%, got more steals per 36, rebounded quite a bit better, and shot 50% on 2-point attempts, way better than the barftastic .387 that Knox managed.

    And yes, Knox did play heavy minutes and was thrust into a role he wasn’t ready for, so you have to factor that in a bit. Harris played only about 500 minutes as a rook. But still. Harris played 1200 minutes as a 20-year old and didn’t embarrass himself, let’s see how Knox does this year in what should be a diminished role. I think 1500 minutes or so is probably about right for Knox at this stage of his career, he should be able to handle that.

  47. Brian Cronin Post author

    Good for Miller. Fiz better watch out. This smacks of Woody being hired before D’Antoni’s final season. Mills knows how to put the blame on others.

  48. The Honorable Cock Jowles

    I feel very strongly that his best comparison is Tobias Harris.

    Given that Harris played only 479 minutes as rookie, I’m going to use his freshman & sophomore year combined stats in this comparison.

    No, they are not remotely similar beyond their height and listed position.

    I don’t care that Knox is a better 3PT shooter through 75 games since his overall efficiency is total shit compared to Harris. 2012-13 league average TS% was .540. Harris had a .530 TS%. 2018-19 league average TS%: .560. Knox? .475.

    Harris rated as a below-average player, but nothing stands out as particularly bad. Knox was one of the very worst players of the season and one of the worst players I’ve seen in a Knicks uniform, ever.

  49. TheOakmanCometh

    Quick tangent while thinking about Frank’s bust-tacular career….

    The Knicks have drafted 3 French players in their history: Frank, Louis Labeyrie, and of course the legend himself Frederic Weis. Based on that record, we can never draft another French guy again, right? You literally cannot do worse than we have.

  50. JK47

    Theo Maledon is a potential lottery pick in next year’s draft. My head says he looks like a pretty good prospect. But France though.

  51. thenamestsam

    It’s funny to read the comments about Fox and Knox right next to each other…given that Fox also had an absolutely abysmal rookie year. Not Knox level bad of course, but -4.4 BPM (Knox was -6). And that was as a 20-year old, not 19. The same people writing Knox all the way off would’ve been tossing Fox in the trash 12 months ago if he was a Knick.

    I hate being in the position of defending Knox since I’ve hated the pick since literally the moment they made it, but it’s legitimately insane to say that the best case for Knox is a 9th or 10th man. Your error bars on the projections of his future value are too narrow by like several orders of magnitude if you’re posting that. He had pretty much the worst first year you can have but the trajectory could still point in all kinds of different directions from here.

  52. Farfa

    If you’re saying that Knox has a chance to be a multi-year starter in the NBA, I don’t disagree. We’re not talking about Frank here.

    When I said “best case” I was thinking about maximizing his contributions. Of course there is a chance that he’ll be the 2020s equivalent of Lamond Murray, a frequent starter on the worst teams in the 90s NBA. That’s not what I call “best case scenario” though, as I wouldn’t call Wiggins’ best case a 20ppg scorer even though he’s already done that.

    You have to put things into context. Can Knox average 15ppg and 6rpg for the next six years? Of course. Can it happen in a winning environment? Sorry, I highly doubt it.

  53. The Honorable Cock Jowles

    I don’t know how many people are writing Knox off, even considering his historic badness last year. It would be exceptionally foolish to jettison a 19-year-old SF/PF after one season, especially given the large cost to acquire him. He only makes a total of $14.5M through the next three years, making him a much better value than a Taj Gibson or Wayne Ellington, neither of whom can be expected in any reasonable way to improve year over year.

    The big concern I have is people squinting and seeing a good player in him just waiting to break out. He needs to make enormous leaps before he can even call himself a viable NBA rotation player, to say nothing of being a starter on a playoff team (which is not an unreasonable request out of a fucking lottery pick). Last year’s play was that of a hot, flaming dumpster fire in virtually every way. And although Porzingis gave us a lot more to be excited about, people were calling for the rookie max after like 2000 minutes of NBA play. Let’s not get even close to that with Knox. Give him his sophomore year to prove wrong the doubters like me.

  54. JK47

    We have two pretty large data points for Kevin Knox:
    1. NCAA freshman season (bad)
    2. NBA rookie season (bad)

    He was a pretty risky pick and seemed like a bit of a reach when he was selected, then he played pretty much exactly the way the scouting report said he would play. He seems kind of tweenerish as a defensive player and his basketball IQ is lacking. Maybe the Knicks’ stellar player development ability will help him out, I dunno.

    He’s not without some positive attributes but he looks like a rather mediocre prospect. If he hits his 80%, 90% percentile of projection then yeah, he’s probably useful.

  55. Bruno Almeida

    People were a lot more willing to wait for Fox to develop because he actually showed some good stuff in his freshman year at college and Point Guards typically take longer to develop. This is not irrelevant. But if he didn’t develop in his second year people would be calling him a bust. Of course we shouldn’t get rid of Knox, there’s not going to be good offers for him and he’s young and under team control for many years.

    It’s just that there’s not much at all to be excited about. If he develops great, he’s a good piece for the future, but I’ll call him a good prospect when or if he shows he is a good prospect.

  56. Z-man

    The big concern I have is people squinting and seeing a good player in him just waiting to break out.

    I get what you (and JK, Farfa, etc.) are saying. I’m just offering some reasonable caveats. For example, when JK says:

    We have two pretty large data points for Kevin Knox:
    1. NCAA freshman season (bad)
    2. NBA rookie season (bad)

    …he loses sight of the quality of those data points, which are murky at best. As I said, Knox’s college stats are essentially the same as Harris. His first year stats are slightly worse than those of Fox, an older rookie than Knox was, and his role was grossly outsized for his raw self. He was drafted more as a project with only modest expectations that he would be immediately productive, yet was for the most part a #1 option in the NBA rather than being in the G-League (or still in the NCAA) where he belonged.

    I don’t think it’s “squinting” to say that he shot at a decent % from 3 on high volume or that he executed NBA-caliber plays but was terribly inconsistent. I don’t think the “skill” climb to being a decent player for his ideal position (combo forward?) is as steep as it was for Ntilikina, and I think his attitude is far better than, say, Wiggins or Bargnani.

  57. Z-man

    I think it’s fair to say that if I were another GM, I wouldn’t trade a lottery pick for Knox. And I would trade Knox for a lottery pick at this point.

  58. The Honorable Cock Jowles

    Also, I want to be clear that I’m not a person who thinks every lottery pick should be of a superstar mold (although it’s arguable that you can do it, given how many MVP-quality players have fallen to the edge of the lottery and later). I don’t need Knox to be a superstar — Harris would be a fine outcome, even if he’s terribly overrated and overpaid now.

    If you end up with a bunch of 1-2 BPM players from drafts within a 2 or 3 year period, you’re doing exceptionally well. Then you can go out and sign for or trade future picks for superstars. I would be ecstatic if that happened, but unfortunately, we’re stuck arguing the imaginary merits of players with a negative ~6 BPM.

  59. The Honorable Cock Jowles

    https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/27421425/rookies-see-reddish-not-zion-having-best-career

    AAAAAAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

    But these are actual players saying this, so, I mean, shit, maybe I don’t know much about basketba–

    It was the sixth straight year that a Duke player finished first in the category, with Reddish following in a line that includes Jabari Parker (2014), Jahlil Okafor (2015), Brandon Ingram (2016), Jayson Tatum (2017) and Wendell Carter Jr. last season.

    AHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

  60. DRed

    If you were going to argue that RJ or Morant were going to get ROY over Zion you could do it, but come on Cam Reddish sucked on Duke. He shot 39% on 2 point shots last year!

  61. 2FOR18, understands math

    pm
    https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/27421425/rookies-see-reddish-not-zion-having-best-career

    AAAAAAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

    But these are actual players saying this, so, I mean, shit, maybe I don’t know much about basketba–

    It was the sixth straight year that a Duke player finished first in the category, with Reddish following in a line that includes Jabari Parker (2014), Jahlil Okafor (2015), Brandon Ingram (2016), Jayson Tatum (2017) and Wendell Carter Jr. last season.

    AHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

    this says it all re: appeal to authority. and this goes for every field.
    Be skeptical about everything please

  62. Z-man

    Sure, a bunch of 20yo’s constitute “authority, and they are clearly wrong here, so we should never appeal to authority. Right. Especially if we understand math.

  63. Owen

    That is crazy re Reddish. The way player reps work amongst players mhAsbalways been something that has fascinated me.

    You can’t write Knox off yet and you don’t have too. And he was super young with a lot more physical projection than Zion or Barrett. But I’d personally be more surprised if he has a successful career than Frank does….

  64. bobneptune

    Be skeptical about everything please

    “The only sacred truth…. is that there are no sacred truths!”

    RIP Carl Sagan!

  65. Early Bird

    Who ends up with a higher lifetime BPM, Kevin Knox or Cam Reddish?

    It’s a tough call, but my money is on Knox.

  66. Early Bird

    Cam Reddish, literally worse than Zion in every statistical category except 3PM, and only because he took more 3’s. Yes, even his 3P% is worse than Zions. But, whatever, Reddish will have the better career, lol.

    Cam Reddish: Good at missing 3’s.

  67. The Honorable Cock Jowles

    Reddish is going to have a .450 TS% on 18 USG% but have a few games where he goes, like, 6-10 for 17 points and the comments on the FreeDawkins highlight reels are going to be hi-lar-ious

  68. Bruno Almeida

    Reddish was very highly rated in high school and most of these guys probably played with him in the AAU circuit, so there’s that. Some are probably also jealous of the attention Zion got, so they wouldn’t choose him anyway.

  69. Stratomatic: Sometimes referred to as Satan

    During the 5 preparations games France is +37 when Frank is on the court !

    Wait until he’s 6’10”.

  70. Stratomatic: Sometimes referred to as Satan

    Are they just picking the guys who were awesome in high school?

    I think players evaluate each other based on the “range” of skills a player shows when they are watching them or playing against them. They want to know how hard it is to stop a player from scoring and how hard it is to score on them. They don’t necessarily look at decision making and efficiency using those skills. Almost everyone that has seen Reddish play “when healthy” says he’s going to be good. He hasn’t shown it in games, but he was also not healthy. We’ll see who’s right, but I suspect the Hawks are a pretty smart organization and he’s eventually going to wind up being a better player than the consensus here. It’s harder to imagine him having the best career.

  71. Z-man

    Yeah, Reddish is underrated here. He’ll be a WAY better pro than Brandon Clarke. (just seeing if jowles is awake)

  72. Stratomatic: Sometimes referred to as Satan

    I just saw some highlights of Frank and Gobert on the court together using each other’s length and energy to lock down defensively. Great stuff. I started dreaming of Robinson and Frank doing the same thing. Geez, if we drafted Mikal Bridges and still had KP, what a defense.

  73. Stratomatic: Sometimes referred to as Satan

    Yeah, Reddish is underrated here. He’ll be a WAY better pro than Brandon Clarke. (just seeing if jowles is awake)

    The Wins Produced people used to put out a mock draft (probably still do). Some of the players they liked a lot more than the consensus would get to the NBA and eventually put up the same pattern of stats they did in college. Unfortunately, some of those players wound up at the end of the bench and others eventually dropped out of the NBA altogether. They would argue that the player was actually very good just like they said. At no point did they ever consider that their measurement was wrong. Instead, if the model said he was also a good NBA player, it was multiple NBA organizations, multiple hall of fame coaches, and other players that were idiots for not recognizing the value of those players.

    I like Clarke. In fact, I like him a lot. I wanted to give up a pick to get him.

    I’m bringing up a different point. If you like a payer in college because he scores highly on your favorite model, he will almost certainly score well on that same model at the NBA level.

    That does not mean the model is evaluating him correctly. It “could” mean you are overrating him or underrating him at both levels because of a flawed model.

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