Knicks 2016 Season Preview Over/Under

Porzingis’ true shooting percentage: 50%

This is not Porzingis
This is not Porzingis

Kurylo: I so want to take the over, but he only managed 41.8% in the preseason. The worst part of his shooting was his inability to draw contact (0.9 fta/36), which indicates to me he’s has a lot to learn about the NBA, especially the inside game. He’ll be good one day, and he’ll certainly have his moments this year, but I don’t think he’ll be able to sustain efficient scoring over the course of the season. UNDER

Cronin: I think once the season starts, he’ll get more outside shooting opportunities, and I think he’ll hit enough there to get over 50%. OVER

Ephus: Way under. Rookies do not get a good whistle. Euro rookies really do not get a good whistle. He is going to be battered on both ends.

Cavan: Slightly under–but only slightly. So much depends on how Porzingis fits into the rotation, and where. If he’s spending most of his time on the floor with Melo, that’s going to free up all sorts of open looks. In the end you have to defer to history, and rookies seldom get the looks, calls, or consistent playing time conducive to that kind of efficiency.

Heather: KP’s going to struggle at the start. However, there have been flashes of he and Melo developing a nice one-two punch, particularly in pick and pop situations. While I expect his outside shooting to be very good this season, his body frame is so thin that on the block, the kid’s shooting percentage is going to drop. Beyond 15ft, I wouldn’t be surprised if he flirts with 50%. however, overall, I expect him to be around 40%. UNDER

Fisher-Cohen: This is a tough question. Porzingis drew fouls well in summer league but not in preseason. He shot threes well in preseason but not in summer league. Even his Europe stats whimsically jump around from season to season and league to league. Given his age, his beautiful stroke, and the fact that bigs in the NBA are less comfortable defending the perimeter than in Europe, I’m more inclined to buy the shooting than the foul drawing, which fits better with the role he will be asked to play starting alongside Melo. For that reason, while I doubt he’ll average more than 12 or so points per 36, I do think he has a good chance to break 50% TS%.

Gibberman: Hmmmmmmmmmmmmm. I’ll go push. Exactly 50%. What kind of odds do I get for that? I think he ends up right around there. I don’t see him getting to the free throw line a ton and the three-point shot is going to take a little bit of time for him to get adjusted against NBA athletes closing out on him.

Carmelo Anthony Games Played: 62.5
Kurylo: To come up with this number, I took a weighted average of the last 4 seasons, counting every season twice, and 2015 only once. Basically the question becomes: can we discount 2015 when calculating Carmelo Anthony’s health? I’m taking the UNDER.

Cronin: 19.5 games is basically “Melo gets significantly injured again,” so I think the odds are strong enough that he won’t that I’ll take the OVER. I think 8-12 games is more likely.

Ephus: Over. If I am right that his minutes will down below 36 mpg, Melo’s odds of getting hurt decrease tremendously.

Not Carmelo Anthony
Not Carmelo Anthony

Cavan: Definitely over *cough*. Barring some *cough cough* kind of pizza rat-spawned plague that *BLLLLLAAAAACCCHHHH* causes one to hack up organs, he should be fine *cough*.

Heather: The Knicks have 17 sets of back-to-back games this year. Melo and Derek Fisher have both mentioned he may not play every back-to-back if he doesn’t have to. If the Knicks decide to rest him for eight of those back-to-backs, he’d still be over 70 games played. Aside from a routine ankle injury he always seems to suffer each year, I’d count on Melo playing around 70 games this season. OVER

Fisher-Cohen: If it’s games played as a Knick, I’ll take the under. But while it wouldn’t surprise me for Melo to go down for an extended period, that’s a lot of missed games, and to predict that many games lost to injury for any but the most vulnerable players is quite bold. OVER

Gibberman: It has to be over. I’m going to watch this team play basketball 82 times and Melo makes that a reasonably fun thing to do. Melo, play 75 games, I beg you. I can’t do last year again.

The offensive efficiency: the defensive efficiency.
(Taking the OVER means that the offense will be better than the defense.)

Kurylo: UNDER. I this this has the potential to be a decent defensive team. Adding Lopez obviously helps, but so do Affalo, O’Quinn, and holdovers Amundson, Galloway, and Porzingis. Now how much guys like Calderon, Vujacic, and Derrick Williams hurt the defensive efforts, I don’t know. But I think there’s a decent core of defenders on this team to make them average. Also I’m really hesitant on the offense given guys like Grant, Galloway, Vujacic, and for this year Porzingis.

Cronin: Totally agreed, Mike, with this being likely more of a defensive team than an offensive team (at least in year one of Zinger and Grant’s career). They might even turn out to be flat out good! UNDER

Not the Offense nor Defense
Not the Offense nor the Defense

Ephus: I go with the crowd: UNDER. O’Quinn is mean and tough. Lopez is not as mean and not as tough, but he is much bigger. Defense starts at the rim, and the Knicks will be able to protect it this year.

Cavan: Under. I don’t know why.

Heather: UNDER. Defensively, the Knicks have the pieces to be an above average defensive team. Honestly, I’d go so far as to say that their defense is what will win games and give them a shot at the playoffs. Lopez and Afflalo will help the starting lineup; Melo was committed on the defensive end during the preseason so I expect that to carry over; also, with Galloway, Grant, Williams, Early, and O’Quinn in the second unit, we know their mindset is to cause havoc defensively and get out on the fastbreak.

Fisher-Cohen: I worry about coaching when it comes to the defense. The Knicks are starting a bunch of slow players, and that’s how you get killed from 3. Teams that succeed playing big surround their bigs with ruthless perimeter defenders. Chicago has Butler, Memphis has Conley, Allen and Lee. Does Fisher fantasize that Afflalo can be our Butler/Allen? The starting lineup says yes, and when Fisher tightens his rotation, he’ll have the chance to mold all rotations in the image of his starters. OVER

Gibberman: A question like this is so difficult to answer without knowing what the Knicks rotation is going to be. If the starting five is Calderon, Afflalo, Melo, Porzingis and Lopez they’re going to be a terrible at everything, but the offense is probably slightly better than the defense because of the three-point shooting. #FreeTheSecondUnit

Knicks wins: 34.5

And this is not Las Vegas
And this is not Las Vegas

Kurylo: Since I don’t see many here agreeing with Vegas’ Knicks win total line of 31.5, I’m going to up it to 34.5. Is that enough to discourage anyone here to take the over? Well anyone other than me. Honestly I might have taken the UNDER even if it were 31.5, but I’ll stick with the vegas line and say 32 wins. This team has too many things that have to go right: ‘Melo’s health, Zinger, the back court, Derek Fisher, Isiah Thomas, James Dolan…

Cronin: I have faith! I’m going for the same win total as Woodson’s last year! 37 wins, baby! OVER

Ephus: I have more faith! I’m going for the 38 wins that got the 1987-88 Knicks into the 8th seed. The team will end the season with 38 wins, because they will not take a game in the first round.

Cavan: Slightly over. For all its apparent youth-spurred strides, the East is still an unpredictable mess at best, and an unmitigated chemical spill at worse. There’s something about this team–the camaraderie, the chemistry, the smell–that suggests a defiance of expectations.

… Actually I figured out the smell: It’s Zinger’s herring paste hair product.

Heather: I like the makeup of this team and like Charles Barkley, I expect the Knicks to make the playoffs. The East won’t be as easy as it was in the past, but if this team can stay committed to a defense-first mentality, I expect many games to be competitive. A competitive game that needs a closer, sounds like the perfect opportunity for a healthy Carmelo Anthony to win some games. People forget that Carmelo Anthony carried his team to the playoffs every year, other than the last two seasons. I have the Knicks over .500, in the 40 wins range, without a doubt. OVER

Fisher-Cohen: Hffkggkg (phlegm generating noise) I spit on your optimism! Like the Spurs never seem to decline despite annual predictions to the contrary, so too does the East refuse to ascend. But I think this year you will at least see improvement from Miami, Boston, and Indiana, and probably from Philly, Orlando, Charlotte, Cleveland and Milwaukee as well. The one team that will be (much) worse is Brooklyn. So I’m going UNDER. But the Knicks WILL win New York.

Gibberman: I wanted so badly to be optimistic about this roster because there are some pieces I like — Melo, Grant, O’Quinn, Lopez, Galloway and Porizingis are all going to be enjoyable to watch. Between the young talent not being ready to have a positive impact and Fisher not playing the right lineups I’d be surprised to see this team get to 35 wins. I have to go under no matter how much it pains me to do so.

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Mike Kurylo

Mike Kurylo is the founder and editor of KnickerBlogger.net. His book on the 2012 Knicks, "We’ll Always Have Linsanity," is on sale now. Follow him on twitter (@KnickerBlogger).

55 thoughts to “Knicks 2016 Season Preview Over/Under”

  1. This team is so new, I have a hard time making predictions. Analysts do too. Their predictions are all over the map. The over under questions are (formatted to be cuttable and pastable by others):

    1) Porzingis’ true shooting percentage: 50%

    2) Carmelo Anthony Games Played: 62.5

    3)The offensive efficiency: the defensive efficiency.
    (Taking the OVER means that the offense will be better than the defense.)

    4) Knicks wins: 34.5

    I am going to say the following:

    1) Over. The Boston pre-season game persuaded me he can be really hard to defend, and reasonably smart about the shots he takes and doesn’t take. As he plays through the season and gains experience, this will be more and more evident. I think he will make enough three pointers to compensate for the relative lack of foul shots.

    2) I say under. This is basically a coin flip, but if Melo sits out some back to backs that biases the number down.

    3) I pick over. I don’t think the defense will be horrible, but I think the front line will give a lot of teams problems. But it’s a close call.

    4) I have no idea and no answer for this one.

  2. 44 wins is my prediction. I think Melo will have a bounce back typical Melo year and good chemistry, decent defense and a strong/young bench will allow us to sneak up on teams. I think teams like Atlanta, Toronto and even Washington will take a step back. Cleveland is going to coast most of the season as they try to get healthy. Lebron could break down this year. He’s gone to the Finals 5 straight times, eventually that wears on even a superhuman like him.

    I’m an optimist though. But I think we are a playoff team. I think the team has enough youth and potential to get better as the season progresses and most teams won’t quite know what they are facing when they face us early on.

  3. I’d probably bet the under on Porzingis’ TS%, but that’s a good number. Kristaps put up a 55 TS% in the ACB last season, and losing 5 or so points of TS% would be in line with other European transplants. On the one hand, being on the court with Melo should get him more open looks than he would have received as the focal point of his teams offense, but on the other hand his FT rate is likely to decline as he goes up against better defenders.

  4. “This team is so new, I have a hard time making predictions. Analysts do too. Their predictions are all over the map. The over under questions are (formatted to be cuttable and pastable by others):”

    Thanks, KFINJ!

    1) Porzingis’ true shooting percentage: 50%

    2) Carmelo Anthony Games Played: 62.5

    3)The offensive efficiency: the defensive efficiency.
    (Taking the OVER means that the offense will be better than the defense.)

    4) Knicks wins: 34.5

    1- Over. Porzingis is going to be ROY and it won’t even be close. His per 36 #s will be 16 pts on a .530 TS%, 9 rebs, 3 assts, 4 blocks, 1 steal, 3 TOs, 5 fouls, WS48 .120. The dude is a fledgling monster. Bet the house on it.

    2-Over. Melo is healthy, a warrior that plays through non-serious injury without complaint, and loves playing basketball. He will play more games than LeBron.

    3- tough call but Under. Fish seems focused on vastly improving the D, and that should be reflected in their play. More importantly, they will be more efficient on both ends than they were last year.

    4-My head says 34, my heart says 42. Lets split the difference and settle on 38. Some of this is contingent upon my guess that there will be a surprise mid-season trade for/acquisition of a decent 2-way guard. The rest is based on a healthy Melo, the aforementioned ROY emergence of KP, solid (if at times frustrating) play of DWill, and surprising development of Jerian, Langston and yes, Cleanthony into an uptempo second unit.

  5. My prediction for the season is 30 wins. There are lots of things that need to go right for the team to do significantly better, so the odds are overwhelmingly against the team to win, say, 42 games: Porzingis needs to develop quickly, Derrick Williams has to be the player he has not been in 5 years, Calderon needs to return, at age 34, to the form he last exhibited 2-3 years ago (not that he was more than a capable run-of-the-mill PG at any point in his career), Grant needs to have fooled everyone, emerging as a surprisingly overlooked talent, Afflalo would reverse his obvious decline, Lopez would need to up his game to a Tyson Chandler-level at the very least, Galloway would become more than a pesky, hard-playing combo guard (not good enough to consistently play as a SG or PG), Fisher would emerge as a talented coach, the Triangle would succeed in the hands of a coach other than Phil Jackson plus 2 superstars, Carmelo Anthony would improve his overall game (passing a bit more, defending a bit better, running a bit faster, regaining a bit of the lost elevation), Vujavic would be better than he ever was, Thomas/Early/Amundson would cease to be the Triangle of Suckitude and nobody would notice that O’Queen is really an undersized center forced into a PF role he is not very good at.

    In my view, odds are only 2 or 3 of the things I mention will come to pass. Therefore, about 30 wins and no clear way of becoming a true contender for the next few years.

  6. Great roundtable. Tough to guess. I would say that if KP picks his spots and uses his advantage on the perimeter and length on the offensive glass, then he’ll most likely have a TS over 50%. And Melo’s healthy, and he typically doesn’t miss a lot of time. I’m gonna say last season was an aberration, and with this season’s depth and having young guys who can actually play around him so he won’t hafta do it all- he’ll be over 62.5 games played. Over on the offense vs defense. Defense will be improved, but the offense looks so much more fluid, and guys are so much more active (on both ends actually), that I believe the offensive production will be a pleasant surprise. I wanna say push on the win total, but they can’t win 34.5 games. So I guess I’ll hafta say over. I’m thinkin 35 wins sounds about right. If guys like Calderon/O’Quinn/Lopez/KP/Afflalo stay healthy, Williams can score 12-15 ppg as efficiently and effectively as he did in the preseason, and we can get consistent growth from KP and Grant throughout the season, then tat 35 jumps to 41 for me.

  7. Here’s a clear path to becoming a contender after winning 30 games this season-sign Kevin Durant to a free agent contract this summer. Now, that’s probably not going to happen, but that’s really all it takes.

  8. 1) Porzingis’ true shooting percentage: 50%

    I will take the over because we aren’t betting real money and I want to enjoy my season of viewing a genuine prospect in Knickerbocker orange. But yeah, Dirk didn’t crack 50% his first year.

    2) Carmelo Anthony Games Played: 62.5

    Another good line. I will take the over. Melo has something to prove this year. He’ll gut it out.
    3)The offensive efficiency: the defensive efficiency.
    Great question. I think I will take the defense. So the under. That doesn’t seem right as I look at it but I think I believe in Lopez’ and Galloway’s defense more than everything else. And I don’t see Foulzingis being on the floor that much.
    (Taking the OVER means that the offense will be better than the defense.)

    4) Knicks wins: 34.5
    Sticking with my 31 wins from yesterday. It never hurts to manage expectations at the beginning of the season.

  9. 538 has the Knicks at 24.8 and Vegas had them at 29.5 when I bet the over. Not sure why there was an arbitrary increase to 34.5, but I still think I would take the over as I see 35-40 wins. The team should be decent enough defensively that the bad teams won’t run away from them. I like the uptempo second unit. If Melo, RoLo and Afflalo can all do 70+ games, I think they can battle for the eight seed. Like others said here, it should at least be a fun team to watch. I am free to change that opinion any time Lance Thomas is on the floor.

    I think we should add more predictions:

    Sasha Vujacic minutes played: 1200.5 (I’m so hoping under)
    Derrick Williams poster dunks: 12.5 (Over, could see one a week with the way the second unit runs)
    Kyle O’Quinn knockout screens: 4.5 (Seriously, having bigs who can set decent screens is Huuuuge)
    Galloway TS%: 52 (hopefully playing with better teammates helps)
    Amundson hook shot airballs: 8.5 (Love lou, but oh boy)

  10. Here’s a clear path to becoming a contender after winning 30 games this season-sign Kevin Durant to a free agent contract this summer. Now, that’s probably not going to happen, but that’s really all it takes.

    It’s not clear that one superstar would be willing to come here and it’s even less clear that that’s all it would take (specially considering Kevin Durant and Melo may not be complementary talents). Great teams have more balanced rosters, not just 1 superstar (Kevin Durant), one good offensive player (Melo) plus a bunch of mediocre/bad players..

  11. 1) under (lebron’s was .488 his rookie year)

    2) under (unlike last year, there’s no allstar game in NY to keep him in the lineup)

    3) I don’t even understand this question, so I’ll abstain from betting

    4) under (they’ll be better than last year, but not 18 games better)

  12. Super excited for the game tonight. Also wanted to say nice job on the roundtables the last couple days, a lot of good stuff in there. If I had to pick a specific number for the Knicks this year I’d say 30, but there’s a lot of variance in that number. If we get 75 games of Melo we’ll get to the mid-30s I think, and if we get 75 games of Melo and a couple breakouts among the young players the playoffs aren’t out of the question.

    If you can’t have hope this time of year, when can you have it? The 2015-2016 New York Knicks are here, and they’re undefeated for at least the next 10ish hours.

  13. 1. Porzingis’ TSP: 50%
    I’m taking the under. It’s a long season and it will take Z a while to build up the stamina and strengh to perform at that high a level of efficiency consistently.

    2) Melo Games Played: 62.5
    THE OVER!!! I sense that this season means a lot to Melo and he will not sit for minor ailments and play as many games as reasonably possible.

    3) Offense wins…and I don’t know why.

    4) 38 games seems about right. And again, I don’t know why. My impression is that the Knicks just have a pretty decent roster now. Although I wish we had a better starter back court, Calderon and Affallo are potentially a much better tandem than we’ve had in a while. I really like what I’ve seen of O’Quinn, D-Will (his shooting has been incredible), Galloway, Grant and others. I anticipate that the Knicks effort will not embarrass themselves like last years team.

    I’m really looking forward to seeing how the team comes together and watching them develop chemistry as the season goes on. What the hell, 43 wins!!!!

  14. If you can’t have hope this time of year, when can you have it?

    Everybody has hope. It’s just at different levels:

    You hope for the playoffs, but I’m pretty sure you have no hopes of a title. I hope the team plays significantly better than last year and that something emerges from the rookie camp (specially Porzingis).

    Some hope is realistic, some not so much (like expecting to contend for title this year), but everybody has hope and even the un-realistic one is every bit as valid as all other types.

  15. Over/under for the #of times Melo complains about a call and does not get back on D, leading to a dunk on the other end (I like Melo, but this drives me crazy): 2

    Over/under on the number of times Breen calls Cleanthony Early “Anthony”: 3

    Over/under on the number of times Clyde refers to Zinger or Grant as a “precocious neophyte”: 2

    Going to the home opener tomorrow, hoping it’s better than last season when the Bulls destroyed us.

  16. 1) Porzingis’ true shooting percentage: 50%-Under for the reasons others listed above

    2) Carmelo Anthony Games Played: 62.5-over; but I really don’t know

    3)The offensive efficiency: the defensive efficiency.
    (Taking the OVER means that the offense will be better than the defense.)-under; this team is not very good offensively unless calderon/afflalo/williams markedly improve

    4) Knicks wins: 34.5-under; I have them at 31 wins.

    Really excited for the season to start, though; and I really really hope I’m wrong.

  17. D-Mar is that per game? lol

    I’ll say over on .500 and guess and I do mean guess 52%. I have not seen more than thirty seconds of basketball since the finals.

    Over on games played. Derek and Carmelo you know nothing about minutes management.

    Offense/defense; under – defense wins for the same “huh” reasons as the rest of us

    wins: I will take the over and guess 35, yes I know that is DOUBLE the wins from last uyear, but no Jason Smith, no zombie brained JR and Shump, etc.

  18. Fisher says Sasha is starting in the backcourt, along with Calderon, Melo, Porzingis, Lopez.

    That is a slow lineup, at least from 1-3. Hopefully, lack of Greek Freak, Mayo, and Jabari means we won’t suffer too much for that.

  19. Look at The Mets. Less than 3 years ago they were not a good baseball team. They had David Wright who everyone said was an overrated “star” and some young players and they were under 500. Now they are in the world series. And with basketball you need far less players to go from sucking to decent to good to great.

    Zinger is our future. Maybe 44 wins is too optimistic for this year. But there is no reason to not think we can be a contender in 2 to 3 years WITH Melo still on the team. All it would take would be our #4 pick living up to his potential. By the end of his 2nd season he could potentially be an all star level talent and that would change everything.

    Also, CNB, I think you are undervaluing Grant a lot. Just because he was a late first round pick doesn’t mean he can’t also change this franchise significantly. Plenty of great Guards go late in the first round.

    We have youth and potential oozing on this team right now (Grant, Zinger, Early, Galloway, Williams and Quinn). All of them are young and potentially have the ability to still improve their game. This is why I’m excited because we have the chance to improve internally without signing another FA or making a trade just based on our young players. This hasn’t been the case in the long time and they’re in a good situation because there are veterans on the team (Melo, Rolo, Affalo and Calderon) who can help them reach their potential.

    Also, CNB…you disparage the Triangle as if its only worked under Phil Jackson but GSW ran Triangle sets this last year and Pop runs them all the time. And if you watch the team so far in the preseason, they are running the Triangle as a secondary option. They are pushing the ball where they can, setting up pick and roll/pick and pop opportunities and if they aren’t there, then looking to triangle sets to get open looks. This isn’t just pure Triangle.

  20. Slightly off topic but…
    I wonder if the Raptors are gonna fire their cheerleaders and hire Drake to do the dancing

  21. This is the most optimistic I’ve been about the season thus far……Do I see the name “Cavan” in the writeup?

  22. Also, CNB, I think you are undervaluing Grant a lot. Just because he was a late first round pick doesn’t mean he can’t also change this franchise significantly. Plenty of great Guards go late in the first round.

    I have never referred to Grant in terms of being or not being a late first round pick. I have never given Grant’s pick number as a reason (or even a factor) for my opinion of his game. Bizarre argument on your part, don’t you agree?

    I have seen Grant play and the guy looks good, but he tends to lose control and is not very effective with his penetration (thus the similarities to Toney Douglas). Maybe I’m wrong, but I don’t see him becoming a solid PG, and no, he will not “change this franchise significantly”.

    We have youth and potential oozing on this team right now (Grant, Zinger, Early, Galloway, Williams and Quinn).

    Youth is ‘oozing out’ of this team (by force – a full rebuild is in place), but talent? No much beyond Porzingis’ promise (and even that is not guaranteed).

    All of them are young and potentially have the ability to still improve their game.

    Yes, I guess anyone can improve. History has proven that very few actually do, though.

    Also, CNB…you disparage the Triangle as if its only worked under Phil Jackson but GSW ran Triangle sets this last year and Pop runs them all the time. And if you watch the team so far in the preseason, they are running the Triangle as a secondary option.

    It’s widely accepted that the Triangle has only worked under Phil Jackson when he had excellent teams led by 2 superstars (at least) in their prime (Kobe, Jordan, Shaq, Pippen, Rodman, Gasol, etc.). All other coaches who tried it failed in spectacular fashion.

    Kerr and Popovic have never run the triangle – let’s get real here, please. Unless you mean that some quick sets resemble sets of the triangle…but that’s just wild extrapolation.

  23. 538 has the Knicks at 24.8 and Vegas had them at 29.5 when I bet the over. Not sure why there was an arbitrary increase to 34.5, but I still think I would take the over as I see 35-40 wins.

    I think you answered your own question there. ;)

    In other words, Mike raised the over-under number because he knew that the lower number would get too many overs here, so he wanted to see if people would still go over if he raised it to 34.5.

  24. 1) I’ll take the UNDER for Porzingis’ TS%. He’ll struggle the same as any rookie. He’ll also probably hit a rookie wall (that’s still a thing for euros right?)

    2) Take the OVER for Melo games played. He’s stubborn as all hell with injuries he generally needs to be physically incapable of standing to not play, or be on pace for sub 20 wins.

    3) I’ll take the defense. Other than Melo the starters seem injury prone or bad offensive players. I’d be surprised if the second unit’s success continues when a coach is more liable to pull subs for starters. Lopez, Quinn, and Kristaps’ length will be a huge boon on D and the boards. The one true defensive black hole in the rotation is Calderon, that might be enough tho.

    4) 32 games. So under I suppose. I’ll be happy with that total tho.

  25. I think they are more balanced then they’ve been in a long time. They have some good, not great, new pieces (Rolo, O’Quinn, Afflalo), some holdovers who will hopefully improve (Galloway, Calderon, Early), some new guys with potential that may surprise (Porzingis, Grant, D Williams), and Melo looks like a good bet to bounce back and have a good season by his standards. I am sticking with 36 wins as the over/under. That No.1 pick that was thrown away on Bargs really hurts the rebuild now. As for yesterday’s argument/discussion on Grant – he looks to have a lot more upside than Toney Douglas. He can get to the rim and appears to be at least an adequate defender. To my eye, he looks like a huge improvement to the PG position as to what has been run out there the past few seasons. I am bullish on him being at least average as an NBA point guard. I don’t get why there is so much negativity to him on this site. Give the young fella a chance before you bury him.

  26. 1. Porzingis TS% = 50%: Under
    2. Anthony GP = 62.5: Over
    3. Defense vs. Offense: Offense Transition and perimeter D might be lethally weak.
    4. Wins = 34.5: Over Barely

  27. @28 I don’t think there’s that much negativity toward Jerian Grant. It’s more just backlash against the posters who were declaring Grant the franchise savior/RookieOfTheYear/starting PG as far back as summer league. He clearly has skills as a pg and passes the eye test, but for me he still needs to show that he’ll be able to score.

    At least outside of CNB being down on him.

  28. If you don’t know that other teams and coaches have run Triangle sets then I don’t know what to tell you. Also, the Phil Jackson can only win with superstars narrative is just that…a narrative created by sports journalists bc narratives are fun. Every championship team (except maybe the 04 Pistons) has had superstars on them so not sure why The Triangle and Phil Jackson are the only ones to get stuck with the idea that they needed superstars to win. Tim Duncan is maybe the best power forward of all time. Do you honestly think The Spurs win all those titles without him?

  29. And of course nothing is guaranteed, that’s sports and life. But the point is that we have potential, more than we’ve had in a long time, and that’s a reason to be optimistic.

  30. Nobody wins in the NBA without good players, captain. System shit is way overblown by the media. The sixers run a cutting edge NBA offense and. . . they were fucking terrible because they have terrible players.

  31. @CNB

    Toney Douglas is not a good comparison for Jerian Grant. Douglas didn’t have a problem with doing nothing when he penetrated, he simply never penetrated. Douglas would shoot threes. That’s pretty much it. There’s a reason Melo was the de facto pg after only a couple games the season that Douglas was slotted as the starter.

    I think better comparisons for Grant thus far are Ramon Sessions, Ray Felton, Rajon Rondo, Shaun Livingston. Players who can clearly run the point and penetrate but lack scoring ability. These are all decent players. Clearly Grant needs to grow some to make it even to that level, but he’s a rookie and has time.

  32. Here’s a clear path to becoming a contender after winning 30 games this season-sign Kevin Durant to a free agent contract this summer. Now, that’s probably not going to happen, but that’s really all it takes.

    Outside of Dolan taking Durant’s family hostage and forcing him to sign with NY I have no idea why Durant would choose to come here instead of almost anywhere else.

  33. My mention of the Triangle was within the context of the team’s prejected performance for the upcoming season. This part of a very fair and clearly stated analysis of the triangle is totally applicable and something that many posters here conveniently “forget” when making their own projections: the triangle takes time to learn.

    There is one key enemy that conspires against all that: time. Even the system’s biggest advocates agree that it takes at least a year for players to be reprogrammed. But a year is an eternity for increasingly impatient owners. Consider: a whopping 22 coaching jobs have turned over since the end of the 2013 season.

    Combine a willingness to suffer through that transition year with long-term roster stability and extreme patience from management, and maybe a team can succeed going all-in on the Triangle. That is what the Knicks, under Jackson’s tutelage, will be hoping to accomplish. But that’s a tough sell for any owner, general manager or fan base; New York, of course, is not noted for being laid-back.

    Triangle advocates believe previous coaches failed because of that lack of patience, and not any inherent problem with the system. They believe Jackson’s assistants that have received head coaching chances, from Cleamons in Dallas in the ’90s to Rambis with the Timberwolves several years ago, didn’t receive enough of a commitment from management. They were hung out to dry when bad results came as a result of the slow transition needed to pick up the system.

    Very informative reading:

    http://www.sbnation.com/nba/2014/10/23/7041727/phil-jackson-triangle-offense

  34. 1. Porzingis TS% = 50%: Under(49.5)
    2. Anthony GP = 62.5: Over (70)
    3. Defense vs. Offense: Offense barely only because we will still give up a lot of 3ptr’s
    4. Wins = 34.5: Over (36)
    This year’s team actually has a front-court, compared to last year’s…this means better defense/rebounding/toughness overall. If the G and G tandem at guard get going then this team will be decent…If KP is any good this year, then watch out! #eternaloptimist ;)

  35. I agree the Triangle is tricky but again we’re not going right to it on the offense anymore. Its more a plan B thing which I think is a good move. Also, Calderon, Melo and Gallo all have experience with it now and the rest of the guys are way smarter than last year’s bunch (“learners”). Plus Sasha knows it very well which helps. Last year the entire team was new to it including the veterans and the team got gutted starting in late November. This year its different plus some of the guys have experience running it.

    I also am more upbeat about the future for this reason. If the wheels do fall off and we aren’t a playoff team this year, I believe strongly Phil and Melo will come to an agreement and Melo will get traded. Even past his prime he will still be a valuable trade piece and his contract is not going to be bad going forward with the new cap. Maybe we don’t get a ton of draft picks back, but if we really are futher behind that I believe we are then we can trade Melo and really start the rebuild (with even more cap space). True no draft pick this year, which will sting but maybe we can get in the draft this year if Melo is traded (by say the deadline) and after that we have our picks. Then we’d have a core of Zinger, Grant, Rolo and Quinn with Calderon leaving soon enough, Willie H coming over and draft picks after the next season.

    I think Phil has set us up to be flexible depending on how things play out and I like that.

  36. Ah, Isola, classy as ever, answering a question about which players he expects to cover the most this season (emphasis mine):

    Locally, it will be Carmelo Anthony and Kristaps Porzingis for obvious reasons. One is the best player on the team coming back from knee surgery and the other is the Knicks’ highest draft pick since Patrick Ewing. Fortunately, they are both very pleasant to deal with. I would say 70% of the coverage will focus on them while 20% will be spent on Phil Jackson and Derek Fisher. The rest of the team, many of whom I wouldn’t know if I tripped over them, get the other 10%.

  37. 1. Zinger TS% of 50
    This one is the hardest to predict. I dunno, under?

    2. Menlo games played
    I’m guessing he plays 65 or so games, so over.

    3. Offense vs defense
    There’s not enough secondary scoring after Melo, and in terms of offensive four factors I see the Knick offense struggling in terms of eFG% and FT/FGA. On defense the Knicks are slow but long, and can put some pretty good defensive lineups on the floor… I’ll say the defense will be the higher rated unit.

    4. Wins
    I’m seeing 28-32 wins when I look at this roster, so under.

  38. “The rest of the team, many of whom I wouldn’t know if I tripped over them”
    A beat writer covering a team acknowledges that he doesn’t even know many of the players on a 14 man roster? If I were his employer, my first question would be, “What the hell is it that we are paying you to do out at the training facility and at games? Don’t you think that it’s kind of part of your job description to introduce yourself to everyone on the team?”
    By the way, as one of the resident optimists here, put me down for 41 wins.

  39. For the sake of posterity:

    1) Porzingis’ true shooting percentage: 50%

    Under – expect big things eventually, but rookies have a bad track record and I expect him to carry a larger-than-widely-expected scoring load after Melo is traded.

    2) Carmelo Anthony Games Played: 62.5

    Over – but with many of them coming for another team (Bulls?)

    3)The offensive efficiency: the defensive efficiency.

    Under.

    (Taking the OVER means that the offense will be better than the defense.)

    4) Knicks wins: 34.5

    Under, in large part because I expect a Melo trade.

  40. 1) Porzingis’ true shooting percentage: OVER 50%

    2) Carmelo Anthony Games Played: UNDER 62.5

    3)The offensive efficiency: the defensive efficiency. OVER
    (Taking the OVER means that the offense will be better than the defense.)

    4) Knicks wins: UNDER 34.5

  41. 1) Porzingis’ true shooting percentage: UNDER 50% (~45%)

    2) Carmelo Anthony Games Played: OVER 62.5 (70)

    3)The offensive efficiency: the defensive efficiency. UNDER (by 5 points)
    (Taking the OVER means that the offense will be better than the defense.)

    4) Knicks wins: UNDER 34.5 (31)

  42. 1) Porzingis’ true shooting percentage: UNDER 50%

    2) Carmelo Anthony Games Played: OVER 62.5

    3)The offensive efficiency: the defensive efficiency. OVER
    (Taking the OVER means that the offense will be better than the defense.)

    4) Knicks wins: UNDER 34.5

  43. If you believe Melo and Afflalo have peak years on both ends, the rookies both contribute meaningfully, Galloway becomes a knockout three point shoot, and Fisher adapts and puts sensible lineups on the floor, I totally understand picking the Knicks as a 42-46 win team. Those things are all possible. Some are even likely if you look at them one at a time. But for all of them to happen? Seems like a very long shot.

  44. By the way, speaking of Fisher, my prediction is based solely on him being a decent NBA coach. If he is as bad as he looked last year, then I’d lower my projection by at least 5 wins. I was giving him 37 wins under the theory that he couldn’t be as bad as Woodson was, and Woodson won 37 games with a mediocre team where bad coaching/bad decision making cost them roughly 6 wins. If Fisher actually is as bad as Woodson was, then there goes those extra wins. So my thing should be “If Fisher is a decent NBA coach, OVER. If Fisher is a bad NBA coach, UNDER.”

  45. Just to chime in before tip-off….

    Porzingis’ true shooting percentage: 50%
    Under. He’s going to need to adjust.
    Carmelo Anthony Games Played: 62.5
    Over. He’ll get DNPs simply to rest.
    The offensive efficiency: the defensive efficiency.
    Over. Predicting the Knicks are going to be a good defensive team just feels wrong. I’ve gotta see it and with Melo and Afflalo playing significant minutes, I don’t see it.
    Knicks wins: 34.5
    Over. I’ll step out on the limb and predict 42.

  46. Bucks starting Bayless and Copeland tonight without Parker and Giannis. I feel like this game should be a pretty good early litmus test for us. That’s not that strong a team we’re going against.

  47. Hey might as well query the crew. What do you take for the over/under on these?

    Langston Galloway 3pt% 36.5%

    Arron Afflalo 0.105 WS/48

    Carmelo Anthony TS% 55%

    Kevin Seraphin 900 minutes played (a measure of whether Fisher insists on playing big)

    Robin Lopez 32 MPG (a measure of whether Fisher pushes his best players’ minutes for short term gains)

    Porzingis 23 MPG (a measure of whether Fisher is more future-focused)

  48. Slightly off topic but…
    I wonder if the Raptors are gonna fire their cheerleaders and hire Drake to do the dancing

    Drake would probably hire the cheerleaders as backup dancers because he would feel bad they got fired and because Drake knows dem feels.

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