News & Blogs
Knicks’ Jalen Brunson on Donte DiVincenzo’s devastating Achilles injury: ‘It sucks to see’ – SNY
Knicks Bulletin: ‘I’m right here. I’m all good’ – Posting & Toasting
Knicks know they must bring ‘higher level of desperation’ into Game 5 vs. Hawks – SNY
How the Knicks picked themselves off the mat to win Game 4 and save their season – Posting & Toasting
DiPietro & Rothenberg – Hour 1: Knicks preview, Mets’ struggles – ESPN
Knicks vs. Hawks odds, prediction, time: 2026 NBA playoff picks, Game 5 best bets by proven model – CBS Sports
Josh Hart: Is He The REAL MVP? Debating Top Players! #shorts – Knick of Time
Knicks at Hawks (Game 5) – Recap & Reaction | POSTGAME SHOW | Knicks Film School – Knicks Film School
Knicks vs Hawks Game 5 Preview: Key Matchups & Adjustments – Knicks Fan TV
The Run.down Knicks vs Hawks R1G5 Postgame Show – The Strickland
The Putback with Ian Begley: Knicks-Hawks Game 5 Reaction with Jonathan Macri – Begley Putback
YT News
131 replies on “Knicks Morning News (2026.04.29)”
Knicks in 6.
Celtics had another of their “keep chucking from three, the worst thing that can happen is you miss” fourth quarters.
The first half yesterday was sublime. I was so impressed.
I’ve been known to place some timely NBA bets before odds adjust. Last year, for instance, I took the Pacers after game 2 in Cleveland.
This year no one stood out to me until today. I’ve been saying the Celtics are an overrated try-hard team for a while, but they’re still heavy favorites in the east. That’s making the Knicks at 20-1 look very attractive.
It’s also not so attractive that I’d have to be afraid my wise guy would rather kill me than pay me. Which is good bc I want to go through life without ever opening an online betting account.
Knicks at 20/1 is my bet this year.
I’ve had pretty good luck with these bets considering they’re all heavily contrarian and long odds. The Raptors in 2019, Suns in 2021, and Pacers last year all made it to the finals. I’ve also whiffed on Clippers a couple times (I have irrational confidence in Kawhi), so not perfect.
Spurs at 5/1 are probably the best value bet in the game right now, but I don’t get out of bed for anything less than 10x. Knicks are the bet this year, and now’s the best time to get them. That shit will be down to 8/1 after we beat the Celtics in game 1.
Wasn’t watching when Reggie said Clyde was his idol, but i find myself not hating the man anymore. He’s been fine on the broadcast, doesn’t say things against the Knicks just because we were rivals like in years past, he even praises us lately. Time to close that chapter.
Strat, please don’t let your dislike for a Brunson type of player (dominant PG?) to extrapolate to hating the real player. He’s one of us, and we should support all the team. I was on the “let’s trade KAT and move on”, for a good player i mean, and now i don’t know, he played superbly yesterday. Same for Mikal, if he somehow finds himself again (he went to the hoop, he did some things yesterday that might mean he’s trying to change), i’ll get back to wanting him on the team. 🙂
Reggie actually had some very nice things to say about the defense of the Knicks last night, too. It was surprising, and refreshing.
I thought that Deuce was nicely impactful without even scoring a point (and that foul called on him under the basket to take away the 3 was ridiculous). Alvie was wonderful. And yes, Bridges did a couple of good things last night, for sure. Also refreshing.
I am really loathe to say anything even remotely negative about last night’s stupendous win, but Diawara not getting any time on the floor even in garbage time (and I think he deserves *real* minutes over Bridges right now) is confounding. What on Earth are we saving him for?
I think last night was the second most impressive performance of the KAT/Mikal era. Game 4 vs Boston is the best. Game 6 against Boston was great, too, and probably the most fun game of the era, but the Celtics were banged up and rolled over early.
Last night was pretty awesome. For all the talk of Brown and Thibs the last two years, these guys just need to figure it out on the court, and maybe they have. Brunson, KAT, and OG looked like a legit Big 3. Brunson took a lot of shots but it wasn’t hero ball, it was the natural flow from all the attention on KAT and OG.
I’m extremely curious to see what happens when/if the Hawks choose to shift their focus back to Brunson. If he uses his gravity to tilt the court towards KAT & OG, we’re golden. If he swims upstream again, we still have work to do.
I have the Spurs at +4528 from before the season started.
I also have the Magic and Nuggets, but both at odds lower than they are now.
I cashed out my wager on OKC at a profit mid season when I thought they started to be overrated. So I am free rolling on the others. if OKC wins I break even for the year.
I may still make some other plays, but I don’t have any good ideas right now.
They had 6 players who hadn’t played and Brown chose 5 of them. Diawara played last playoff blowout while Dadiet & Sochan didn’t. Don’t think it means anything.
Quick note on the lottery reform…
It’s clever. I like how it introduces quasi-relegation. And I think it’s going to be effective at curing tanking.
But the whole point of having a draft is to distribute talent to the worst teams. So you solved tanking, but you completely defeated the purpose of a draft. Just like when you “solved” the Process, you created a bigger (and obvious) problem that you’ll need to solve in 6 years.
There really shouldn’t even be a draft if these are the rules.
Just punish the tanking, dude. Start treating NBA GMs like you treat players who leave the bench and this all goes away as fast as bench-clearing brawls did.
“They had 6 players who hadn’t played and Brown chose 5 of them. Diawara played last playoff blowout while Dadiet & Sochan didn’t. Don’t think it means anything.”
Absolutely fair. I get it. But the question remains: Why isn’t he getting *real* minutes, especially since 1) he provides two things that are important to us in this series—size and 3-point shooting, and 2) there are others getting minutes who are generally severely under-performing.
I took the Knicks at +2200 right before the playoffs started. Theory no more complicated than if you have Jalen Brunson and KAT on your team, you’re very dangerous and those odds undersold that reality.
They’ve only fallen to +2000 so it’s not really that great a call by me, but I’m fine hanging in. Frankly might be time to throw a little more in at that number, since they’re now 3 games closer to the LO’B and the clear favorite to win the first series.
I don’t think they’re that worried about fixing everything right now. They just don’t want 2 out of every 3 teams actively vying for last place.
He had a stretch late in the game where from the moment he touched the ball in the backcourt the only thing on his mind was creating a shot for himself. He hit practically every shot which is why everyone his celebrating the performance, but that’s exactly what we don’t want him doing. Those shots don’t go in all the time because they are tough or because the defense is too tough. We learned that earlier in the series, which is why this series has been tough to begin with. His instinct and ego are fully geared towards scoring. I think he has to constantly be reminded to move the ball or he falls back into that bad habit. We’ve seen this nonsense from better players than Brunson and you can’t win a championship that way. It’s too easy for elite teams to defend.
… by defeating the purpose of a draft and allowing randomness to dramatically alter the competitive landscape of the NBA for a decade or more — all while still leaving in clear incentives to tank at higher levels. Seems like a poor thought process which no attention paid to second order consequences, which is exactly how we got here.
After the all-star break, Diawara shot 32.8% from 3. He didn’t have a good track record before coming to the NBA either. There’s a good chance Diawara was on a hot streak and has now cooled off.
If you got rid of the three point line, or just made it active in the last five minutes of the game, you’d lessen the impact of the elite of the elite player and make tanking less valuable.
The start of real reform is getting efficiency levels back to the early 90s and before. The corner 3 should have been eliminated years ago. The trifecta in general is a complete gimmick whose born-on date has long passed.
From ESPN: West 1st Round – Game 5, SA leads series 4-1
Funny—I thought that meant that the Spurs *won* the series, not that they were just leading it. Go figure.
Any changes that punish legitimately bad teams, that are historically competitive, and are trying to actually rebuild, is antithetical to the draft.
When players get a certain number of techs they face a mandatory suspension. Why not have 3 tiers, 1-4, 5-8, and 9-13. Tiers are based on final record, but each tier has its own flat lottery, and if a team gets enough dings for being non-competitive, they get relegated down a tier, similar to the players and their techs. Oh, and no pick protections, of course.
Under this plan, the loser of the 7/8 play in would get a lottery ball and the winner wouldn’t.
The two teams who crash out of the play in would get two lottery balls (which is the same amount as the three worst teams in the league).
Introducing heavy incentives to tank the play in games is stupid. Thinking teams won’t tank them is naive.
I am not going to like Reggie just because he says nice things about us.
That was a great win. That’s how you handle your business.
I hope Suni has noticed how OG is playing.
Instead they come up with this:
“Teams also would not be able to protect picks in the 12 to 15 slots going forward”
I love (the idea of) Diawara very much, but his shooting dipped late in the season (as EB notes), and (my eye test) the last few shifts I’ve seen him play, he’s been yelling/gesturing all over the court, telling everyone where to go and what to do. Maybe he’s gotten a bit out over his skis as they say? Still potential, but learning time, maybe?
i.e. the Mark Cuban rule.
“Introducing heavy incentives to tank the play in games is stupid. Thinking teams won’t tank them is naive.”
Agree. Think Dallas tanking their last game to avoid the play-in and save their draft pick a few years back..
NBA talent is so concentrated that the difference in championship odds for the 16th best team and the 30th best team is negligible. The new structure matches that reality.
Wemby going to the last place team almost instantly makes them a contender. The 14th pick will normally keep the 16th best team right around the 16th best team. If the 16th place team had Wemby, the league wouldn’t break.
If the last place team wants to get better they can make smart draft choices and sign good players and be just fine.
Correction: it says “the Nos. 9 and 10 play-in seeds in each conference receive two lottery balls each, and the losers of the 7-8 play-in games receive one lottery ball each.”
So the incentive to tank is largely before the play-in tournament (a 7th or 8th place team has tremendous incentive to finish 9th). And there’s an additional incentive to tank the 7/8 game.
To be clear, this plan gives treats the difference between 7th (no balls) and 9th(two balls) the same way it treats the difference between 1st and 30th.
It’s 100% a question of incentives.
The current setup incentivizes losing. Teams get rewarded for losing, so they choose to lose. Simple.
The proposed setup incentivizes losing LESS with the flatter odds but if you’re doing a tiered setup, you are still creating situations where you are incentivizing the behavior you say you don’t want.
Totally flat lottery odds (like the NHL; as the resident Isles sufferer, thank you Lord for Matthew Schaefer) are better, but the occasionally creative and forward-thinking NBA is missing an opportunity here to implement a method that incentivizes WINNING instead. e.g. an NIT for the disqualified or lottery balls for wins after the first team is disqualified.
The core problem is you have a third of the league giving up on the competition, and that is some serious bullshit. Things will move slightly in the direction of the bad teams half-heartedly trying to win, but if they’re not rewarded for it, the non-playoff teams are still going to be an embarassment.
Donnie, I’ve counted on the Dodgers the last two nights, and they’ve cost me money both times. What’s up with them losing to the Marlins and only scoring one run. Who do they think they are? The Yankees?
It may have happened too late in Maryland on monday for you to see it, but they did win that game in the bottom of the 9th. What was your bet: that they’d have it wrapped up early?
[edited to add: is there much money to be made betting on the Dodgers in the first place? Hubert might be able to give you some tips on that:)]
I don’t think that’s correct. We’re talking about Orlando, Charlotte, Miami, Philly vs Washington and Brooklyn. That’s a pretty big gulf.
Orlando, Phoenix, Charlotte, Miami, Golden State, and the Clippers would all have gotten balls this year under the plan, with flattened odds. It’s not a negligible difference if one of those teams wins, and it’s extremely punishing to the teams ahead of them in the standings.
The Mike Brown experience has its ups and downs. He probably gave away at least one winnable game in this series due to lineup weirdness. But you also have to admit he has this team playing better defense than any of the Thibs teams. This is probably the best defensive Knicks team since the Jeff Van Gundy era. There is nothing fluky about either.
He has even gotten offense-oriented players like Brunson and KAT to buy in and contribute on the defensive end. I think Brown deserves lots of credit for getting these guys in sync on defense. These last couple of games they have really made it difficult for Atlanta to get good looks.
Atlanta missed some open 3’s, so it wasn’t a flawless defensive effort, but in general we kept it to a half court game and rarely gave up easy buckets.
Just daily fantasy games, Donnie, where I was betting on their bats to do something against not-so-great pitchers, one of them actually named Junk. Monday night was definitely better than last night—last night was brutal, whereas Monday night was merely underwhelming.
Minor point of clarification: I’m in Virginia, not Maryland.
With flattened odds, you easily have Orlando make the conference finals and get the #2 pick while a team like Charlotte gets the #1 pick.
That’s not negligibly different than Washington and Brooklyn getting those picks, and it’s incredibly unfair to a team like us. Random shit just gonna change the competitive landscape every year now. That makes a lot of sense.
The Athletic’s prediction of our top draft pick for this year:
24. New York Knicks
Tarris Reed Jr. | 6-11 big | 22 years old | Connecticut
Outside of Mara, no one helped themselves more in the NCAA Tournament than Reed, whose ability to dominate the glass and score on the interior was terrific. He averaged nearly 20 points and 13 rebounds in NCAA Tournament play while leading the Huskies to the national championship game.
Reed is a rugged rebounder on the interior and a real physical presence at 260 pounds, but more than that, he’s also versatile in ball-screen coverages defensively because he moves his feet better than you expect from someone this size. With something in the ballpark of a 7-4 wingspan, expect Reed to win the measurement game, and he will have the ability to likely perform well at the draft combine by getting second-chance opportunities and buckets.
Mitchell Robinson is a free agent at the end of the season for the Knicks, so it would make sense for the organization to look at a strong contender for that backup center role behind Karl-Anthony Towns who provides toughness in the middle. He’d also fit the team’s desire to crash the offensive glass hard.
I know, but there’s no alliteration in that.
🙂
Love Tarris and I wouldn’t hate the pick, but I think we should be looking at some sort of PF rather than Mitch insurance, especially if we like Hukporti (which we seem to?). I would love to draft any of Josh Jefferson, Morez Johnson Jr., or, especially, Allen Graves, who lit it up at Santa Clara.
I also think that Tarris will go in the second, so we could pick him up then with the Washington pick if we were really worried about Mitch leaving and didn’t trust Huk. In general, if we were to pick a C, we should save it for the 2nd round, since there’s a lot of C talent that seems like won’t make it to the first round (Tarris, Veesaar, Bidunga, Zuby if you think he can play C).
I’d much rather keep Robinson, but Reed sounds like a worthy selection either way.
My current favorite choice to make room for Robinson is to jettison Mikal in a salary dump. Even if Mikal wasn’t playing like crap, Deuce plays better with the starting lineup and we have plenty of cromulent SG-sized players.
Already in love with Reed
Forgot to add Koa Peat to the PF list if he drops, though if we’re choosing the athletic PF who has shooting questions, I’d prefer Morez to him.
I’m excited for this draft for the Knicks, it’s deep and there looks to be good options all over the board, at pretty much every position.
So if this were the case this year Orlando would have a small but real chance of getting yge number one pick in the draft.
Apologies, i see other posted this too.
I’m hoping last night took the Hawks’ spirit and at the first sign of adversity in Game 6 they’ll let go of the rope and quit.
It’s not exactly what I’d draw up, but the tanking reform proposal does go further than any previous ones in providing at least some direct incentive to, you know, win basketball games.
Specifically it solves what I’ve referred to in the past as The Courtney Lee Problem—there is currently no reason whatsoever a terrible team should try to improve by signing a cromulent-but-unspectacular-and-not-young player like Courtney Lee to a market value contract. Any POBO of a terrible team that did that would be a moron. This badly distorts the free agent market and leads to years upon years of terrible basketball, because teams feel the need to improve rapidly i.e. by drafting Wemby or not at all.
There will still be some gamification as teams try to find the Goldilocks Zone in which they aren’t “relegated” but do get a healthy share of the ping pong balls, but that’s a much harder line to walk than simply losemaxxing.
The conspiracy theorist wonders if Diawara isn’t getting minutes so that other teams don’t realize how good he is and make him an offer in the summer that we can’t match. But it’s also very true what others pointed out that he just hasn’t played as well lately and that Brown tries to find time for everyone and he can’t do that in one game.
“The conspiracy theorist wonders if Diawara isn’t getting minutes so that other teams don’t realize how good he is and make him an offer in the summer that we can’t match. But it’s also very true what others pointed out that he just hasn’t played as well lately and that Brown tries to find time for everyone and he can’t do that in one game.”
If it’s that first thing, it’s beyond stupid. The second one is what I guess I’m hoping is the case.
I don’t see how you can relegate based on product instead of process and end up with a useful reform.
Since joining the Knicks Brunson’s AST% has been 54th, 81st, 74th, and 60th among point guards. His TOV% has been 98th, 89th, 84th, and 91st (in the good way). These numbers have pretty much held steady in the playoffs, too.
You can nitpick any high-usage player and find instances of them taking shots when they should’ve passed, but the evidence this is a particular problem as it relates to Brunson is quite slim.
The fact of the matter is gifted scorers do in fact often have to remind defenses why they deserve so much attention, which of course is exactly what opens up passing lanes and creates opportunities for others.
You poor thing.
Brunson has well documented struggles against Dyson.
NAW spent the most time guarding Brunson this game, I think it’s been Daniels they other game. Brunson needs to dial it back against Daniels, but we should confident about him going to work against anyone else.
You realize the Fan Duel Sports Book at the Meadowlands is 10 miles from the East Village, right? 🙂
We’re gonna get so so many future 2nds out of this draft
But you’ve got to pay tax on that, so it’s not really a 20x payout. Is the risk of death worth it? Depends on your tax bracket.
Brunson got Quinn Snyder fired and kicked out of Utah.
Same idiot thought it was a good idea to start Daniels on KAT and let Brunson go 1v1 against NAW as the #1 adjustment from game 4.
JB got in rhythm, started cooking and then it was too late to switch as he had Daniels ankles too.
To add insult to injury, Snider only played Daniels 25 minutes last night and there was times he played him together with Bradley, Kuminga and Gabe Vincent. Just becuase he wears glasses doesn’t mean he’s smart.
Would love for history to repeat itself where Jalen Brunson wipes that smirk out of Snyder’s mouth and sends him packing to Cancun.
You’re right, Hubert and EB–I plumb forgot that we’re going to get a top 29 protected first in 2032 that converts into two future seconds in 2065 for trading out from our first round pick
“Brunson got Quinn Snyder fired and kicked out of Utah.”
Can you expand upon that? I’d never heard anything like that before.
After getting shredded by KAT in game 4, Snyder tried to mix it up by using his best defender, Daniels, against KAT. That approach completely failed. Daniels is an elite defender but cannot effectively guard a highly skilled 5 like KAT. That move forced Snyder to use NAW to guard Brunson, which also failed.
It was definitely a dumb strategy. They should just go back to having Daniels guard Brunson and hoping that KAT has an off day.
To play devil’s advocate – these are mega-outlier scenarios on both ends (7/8 seed has a 5% crazy run AND hits the lottery at ~5%). But also – and I had missed this in my first read of the proposal – rewarding teams for actually making the play-in is what leads to a more competitive product top to bottom. They are trying to make it so the absolute most pitiful teams don’t just bottom out AND so the 30-win garbagio teams of Knicks past have something to play for and try to field a competitive product.
The idea that we’re being penalized because we’re suddenly and finally well-run is just sour grapes. I wish these had been the rules during the Layden/Phil Jackson/Isiah years, but those management groups would have blown the high picks anyway.
What’s important is trying to make every team have a reason to play their best players and actually try to win night-in night-out. That is the goal. There’s nothing “fair” about a random lottery or assigning top picks to the worst teams to begin with.
Tonight should be very fun to watch. Toronto / Cavs to see who gets ahead, and Rockets and Pistons to see if they stay alive.
I still can’t how bad Pistons have played. We will see if they can stay in.
But seriously, you’re right it is being hyped as one of the best drafts to have a late 1st rd pick.
We’ll make some move to wherever Leon’s crush goes, unless he falls into our lap, but I’d bet we do actually make a 1st rd pick. Or if we don’t, it’s part of a win-now trade instead of a straight punt.
Leon trading 24 & 31 to move up wouldn’t be a bad bet either.
I actually didn’t know that, largely because those are the worst 10 miles to traverse in the tri-state area. It’s like the Derian Gap of NYC.
I can’t even tell you the amount of things I’ve said no to reflexively because they’re at the Meadowlands.
I did travel them for Wrestlemania 29 in 2019 because that was on my bucket list. I went to the Argentina v Chile final in the 2016 Copa America because that felt like a worthy occasion. And I brought a girl who is a huge System Head to see System of a Down play there last summer, which means I did it for sex.
And it’s not even “not young” players. Look at AYO on Minny. A second round pick that Chicago drafted and he developed into a good player. Now he’s up for his first real contract and since he’s not a sure fire all=star, Chicago traded him because he’s just good enough that he could raise their floor enough for them not to get a top pick in future drafts. And since they suck, they don’t want to take that risk and also tie up cap.
Not saying AYO should get paid, but he then drops 40 in a playoff game. And my Bulls friend is so pissed because they keep doing this in the hopes of one day striking gold and getting the next Wemby instead of just building a competent team that can get into the playoffs.
Honestly, I would rather have the fringe playoff teams every once in a while get lucky and get a top pick than continually send the best young prospects to the worst teams.
It also hurts many of those players. I think environment can play a role in how much a young player develops. And I wonder how many top picks who ended up being “busts” might have had better careers if they went to more competent teams where they learned better habits as rookies.
They’ve been pinching pennies for months to stay out of the second apron, have Mitch and Diawara to resign, and have Mikal’s preposterous extension kicking in. They’re not spending $2.6 million of their “stay out of the apron” money on the 24th pick in the first round.
It actually punishes teams for making the play in: you get three balls if you finish 11th, two if you finish 10th.
I think it takes a few readings to understand how stupid it really is because all the articles focus on the effective things the reform does. You have to read between the lines to see the second order consequences.
The dumbest thing it does by far is it adds a major incentive to lose the 7/8 game. Win & you’re the 7th seed with no lottery ball. Lose & you have a lottery ball and a home game for the 8th seed.
The play in games have been a remarkable success. Introducing incentive to lose them is not a good idea.
And honestly, if they can trade back into the 2nd round and pick up another 2nd round pick, I’m fine with that. Late first round picks are the worst picks. They’re guaranteed but the talent drop off to the early second round is not that much. We don’t need a starter caliber player. Role players and bench players are where we need to keep refilling the cupboard. I’d rather have another throw at the dart board.
Betting NASCAR this season has been great. Made up for a so-so football year.
It’s funny, I can cap stock cars now.
That standing alone should have made it DOA.
Do we have to talk about incinuating late first round draft picks and free agency signings during playoffs? Leon and Rosas are the best front office since Dave Checketts.
I much rather prefer we talk about Mike Brown and how great our defense is, how Johnson is a fake all-star and OG deserves his spot next year, odds of winning a championship, gambling methods and talk smack about Boston…and if Detroit falls there is no one else left in the entire conference that can slow down Brunson…
$2.6M is marginally more than a minimum deal.
If they bring Mitch back without moving anyone, they’re over the apron anyway.
According to Vecenie, 10-25 is in its own tier. There might actually be a dropoff between 24 and the 2nd Rd this year, but normally I’d agree.
Basketball players have been doing this naturally since the beginning of the league. They’re not in on this, and they don’t need incentives to compete. All they need — and they probably want it as much as anyone — is for their GMs to be punished when they try to lose.
I don’t know if the players union needs to approve this change, but if I were them I’d send it back to Silver and tell him to come up with a plan that has clear and severe punishment for coaches and GMs who are trying to lose.
“Basketball players have been doing this naturally since the beginning of the league. They don’t need incentives to compete. All they need — and they probably want it as much as anyone — is their GMs and coaches to be punished for benching them when they can play.”
I believe that Giannis has had a word or two to say about this. (By the way, the new ads featuring him in various “movie roles” are pretty bad.)
We should really just go over the second apron. The things we’d have to do to avoid it — lose Mitch, Diawara, or the 24th pick — are all worse than the penalties. That’s offseason talk, though.
The Darien Gap of NYC, for sure. There is an easy way to get there. I used to live on East 63rd St when I raced at the Meadowlands in the 80’s and 90’s before I moved to NJ and the 164 bus (I think) from Port Authority gets you there in 14 minutes. Easy peasey.
I think you have that backwards, mate. The Magic are the toughest match for Brunson in the East. I’m pulling for Detroit.
I know regular season means nothing but we were 2-2 vs. Orlando and 0-3 vs. Detroit.
Orlando is the worst match up for Detroit because they can play the exact same style Detroit plays and Detroit can’t impose their will on them the same way they can with other teams. But Detroit is probably still the better team, even if Orlando wins the series. So I’d rather play Orlando than Detroit.
But, obviously, the best scenario is Orlando wins, then Cleveland beats Orlando.
Actually, scratch that. Toronto beats Cleveland, Orlando beats the Magic, then Toronto beats The Magic and we face the Raptors (after beating Boston or Philly).
That’s a dream scenario for both teams – for Toronto because they’ll have got farther than anyone expected!
Obviously who they play, including the remaining game(s) in this series, matters, but in terms of tennis parlance the East is on “their racket to win or lose”
I think last night was more about Brunson than what the Hawks were doing. Daniels was back guarding Brunson when he exploded in the 4th. Nobody could really stop him.
They were much more deliberate about Brunson not bringing the ball up, which I think helped quite a bit. And Brunson was attacking downhill more regularly than in the previous games.
So… let’s get this straight. I could win the play-in game, get a 7-game series in the playoffs (+ Anything is Possible) AND a 5.4% chance at the top pick OR I could lose the play-in game and get an 8.1% chance at the top pick, no playoffs.
That’s not a “major incentive” to lose. That’s a marginal incentive. You’d be a fool to lose that game intentionally with these rules.
The point of bad incentives is where things transition from 0 to 5.4%/8.1% – teams losing to avoid the 6 spot. But teams in that range tend to be pretty good teams that are generally trying to win (Minnesota and Atlanta this year), and taking the chance that you’re going to survive the play-in to get ping pong balls that may not cash would be embarrasingly stupid.
I could see a team that’s backsliding due to injury making that call (say Halliburton ruptures his Achilles at game 65 rather than in game 7 of the Finals). Or some bullshit marginal lottery protection scam like what Dallas pulled with us a few years ago, but they try to deal with that by explicitly forbidding those protections.
I think the new plan is clearly better than the current plan. Could be better still. Isn’t “elevator pitch-simple” so sports media is acting like they’re too stupid to understand it, but this league approved the multi-apron nonsense, so my money is on “these are the new rules and people are surprised that it works reasonably well after a couple of years.”
Damn, and I thought that the Knicks fans were tough on Mike Brown.
Listen to this epic rant by a Hawks fan about Quin Snyder’s coaching
LOL hysterical.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gQV-Zld2Vpg
I think the best plan would be to have completely flat odds in the lottery and draw for every pick 1-14. Have traded picks not be in the lottery and end up at the end. Remove pick protections and pick swaps completely. I would also prevent teams from getting into the top 4 two years in a row and probably prevent teams that made the playoffs the year before from getting into the top 4 as well.
I would also tie huge financial implications to winning. Like 2/3 of the tv contract money and all luxury tax penalties go to teams who made the playoffs and teams that missed the playoffs share the last 3rd of tv money with more money going to teams that won more games. Probably have an amount per win for playoff teams and an amount per win for non-playoff teams (which is half of playoff teams) and divide the tv money that way. So there is always some incentive to win even once you’ve locked up your seed.
Also maybe instead of teams getting the luxury tax money we just divide it between all players that made the playoffs evenly to give players a huge incentive to win as well.
The new format relegates tanking incentives to teams on the cusp of the playoffs. These teams might tank, like the Mavs did, but they also have a strong incentive to play serious basketball. As far as I can tell none of the play-in teams were dogging it this year despite the strong draft.
Even among those teams there’s less incentive because they will still share in the lottery odds whereas now the last teams in the playoffs have no lottery equity.
The league also plans on expanding its disciplinary powers, which should take care of edge cases that people are concerned about.
Remember 2021?
After some shuffling, we drafted Grimes, Jokubitis, Deuce, and Sims.
It could happen again!
Stopping protections from 12-15 is also a direct response to the Mavs. The Mavs tanked because they would lose their pick entirely, not just their shot at the lottery.
This measure ensures that teams in the playoff hunt won’t have the same incentive the Mavs had to tank. If they make the play-in, there’s no reason to dog it.
The NBA runs a bit of a risk, too, making the rules too hard for fans to understand and the press to even explain to them. This apron stuff is hard enough to comprehend. It’s one thing for dorkerbloggers like us, but regular folks that just want to catch a good game between good players are hard to keep engaged if the competition isn’t pure and the rules of competition are too hard to follow.
I’m not terribly worried about teams tanking the play-ins for a number of reasons. They’d be looking at a full-blown mutiny from players, “tanking” a single game is hard, and the high-profile, scandalous nature of the idea would draw a lot of attention that could easily lead to league sanction. These days the teams in this range are often decent anyway and tend to genuinely want playoff data.
The idea of teams tanking out of the top-6 also seems a bit far-fetched. Of course something wonky could happen like an injury that makes a top-6 team feel the playoffs without the play-in aren’t worth it, but you can’t anticipate every last potential scenario and as a general matter top-6 teams are pretty good and feel they’ve got a shot at an upset.
At a minimum, it’s hard to see this being an annual, widespread issue like the current iteration of tanking.
I like ben r’s thought of tying contract/revenue sharing to winning…
fuck them losers…
Videos like these make me ashamed to publicly admit I like sports. Is this guy’s whole stick to sound like an unhinged lunatic?
Everybody beats up on the poor Magic.
I disagree. Most 7 or 8 seeds are dead on arrival. Their 8% odds of winning a lottery will usually be greater than the odds of “anything” happening.
Regardless of whether the incentive to lose that game is major or marginal, it exists now. History says whenever there’s incentive to lose, there will be NBA teams who lose on purpose.
I think revenue of at least 2 playoff games at home will appeal to owners more than a slight increase in their chance of landing the #1 pick.
It will work on the problem it’s trying to solve while creating new and bigger problems to solve, just like how the last lottery reform created this.
I’m not suggesting every team will try to lose that game. Just that some absolutely will.
Teams lose much more revenue tanking a whole season and they still do it.
Unless we move one of our top 5 salaries or let Mitch go we have almost no chance of staying under the 2nd apron. We shouldn’t even try.
This changes if we move someone big but our starting five, McBride’s awesome contract, plus 8 minimums to reach 14 players is only $5 million below the 2nd apron. That’s very little wiggle room. The only way to stay under if we don’t make a big move is lose Mitch. If that happens we could probably sign our 1st, keep Dadiet, Alvarado, and Diawara and still be under the apron.
Moving our 1st probably does not make any meaningful room. Either we resign Mitch and it doesn’t matter because we are over or we don’t and it doesn’t matter because we then have room for the extra million or so a 1st is over the minimum.
If we don’t make a major move we need to just bite the bullet and bring everyone back and use all our picks and try to reload the youth a bit.
The fundamental problem with this whole thing is that it’s distributing elite talent randomly, with the worst teams penalized and the best teams disqualified.
If you’re not trying to get the best players to the worst teams, there shouldn’t be a draft at all.
It’s also worth point out that this is essentially the same system everyone hated in 1993 which led to the first lottery reform. The worst teams weren’t winning enough, Orlando got Penny Hardaway, and they changed the rules in 1994.
It’s a circle.
FWIW no one had a problem with that system until Hinkie exploited it. The only incentive to lose was all the way at the bottom, and it impacted 2 or 3 teams a year. Everyone else was pretty static, and the players always played.
“The only way to stay under if we don’t make a big move is lose Mitch. If that happens we could probably sign our 1st, keep Dadiet, Alvarado, and Diawara and still be under the apron.”
Nothing against him personally, but I don’t think I’d be too upset if we didn’t keep Dadiet. Unless kicking him to the curb would further upset Kool Moe D. (Yes, I think he is upset at not playing. He is being a good soldier, but his look-away handslaps as our players moved to the bench where he was sitting looked a little…….half-hearted.)
KAT figuring out what his role is before the first round ended make the apocaloptimist in me happy. Can have nice things?
I don’t have strong feelings either way about Dadiet but he only makes a couple hundred thousand over the minimum next year so he’s only worth dumping if we need the roster spot. Kolek actually makes less than the minimum but I think he will count as a minimum as well or possibly get raised to the minimum. So there is no savings to be found really in dumping or keeping Kolek and Dadiet. Keep them if they are worth the roster spot dump them if not.
I think our roster next season is very much to be determined in regards to team and individual performance this post season…
KAT is making a strong case for being indispensable going forward, dude’s a cheat code against certain teams…
IF we get there, and boston is our opponent, expect KAT to once again have a significant advantage at center…
I like mitch, a lot, a defensively engaged KAT though, makes him a little more replaceable…
as of today, hard to imagine/look forward to mikal being our starting shooting guard or small forward next season…
we’ll see though, was all the way out on kolek to start the year, and he’s proved useful…
maybe mikal pulls it together next series, if/when we get there…sadly he’s definitely got that frank ntilikina: deer staring at high beams look to him at the moment…
E got me nervous with that fournier talk…hopefully that’s not where this is headed…
Even if Mikal “puts it together” against Boston or whatever, I still think we’d be better off figuring out a way to get rid of him and fill his role with somebody else. Promote Deuce to the starting line-up and then find a suitable Deuce replacement. I just think our salary can be better spent than Mikal.
Well now that Mike Brown has got that Jordan Clarkson right…
“@fredkatz.bsky.social
Josh Hart is listed as questionable for Game 6 with a lower back contusion.”
F. I was afraid of that. I’ll try to remember that we ballooned our lead from about 15 points to about 30 points in the fourth quarter without him last night.
You’re spot on but the odds arbitrage was there and Hinky was just the first one to exploit it.
Half the bottom GMs and half the fans on tisi site thought that tanking and building through the draft was/is the best way to create a contender in 4yrs or less.
You create this narrative with fan base so everyone is on board and then you cant be held responsible for 4yrs minimum. Great for job security for a new GM too.
If I had to design the a player in the lab with a goal to stop Brunson it would be Thompson with Daniels a close 2nd.
No one else in the EC has the length, strength, athleticism, discipline and the quick motor cortex to recognize & react to Brunsons counters.
Which Thompson? There are two of them. (Well, two of them that you might likely be referencing, anyway—Ausar and Amen.) I guess you mean Amen because you then go on to write “No one else in the EC……..” when referring to Daniels? Do I have that right?
Yes, you do. But you already knew that, didn’t you?
I’d put Suggs on that list, too.
But the Magic also have Black & Bane with Carter at the rim. They’ve traditionally been one of Brunson’s toughest opponents.
At least the Pistons give Brunson Duncan Robinson and Tobias Harris to hunt. And Jalen Duren’s not exactly a great rim protector.
Not sure it matters since neither team can throw the ball in the ocean. I just don’t see the sea parting for Jalen if the Magic are in the ECF.
TBD, I guess.
To me:
Suggs is a DAWG and a competitor but he doesn’t have the length and gets in foul trouble against JB.
Bain and Carter are BBQ chicken.
I don’t remember anything about Black ever stopping Brunson but I do remember this during the knockout stage of a cup game
https://www.reddit.com/r/nba/comments/1pm0hpu/highlight_brunson_breaks_anthony_blacks_ankles/
“I guess you mean Amen because you then go on to write “No one else in the EC……..” when referring to Daniels? Do I have that right?”
“Yes, you do. But you already knew that, didn’t you?”
No, I truly didn’t—that’s why I asked! 🙂 We only play against Amen Thompson twice a year, and since the Rockets won’t be making the Finals, we won’t be playing them again when we get there and it wouldn’t matter if he is Jalen’s best defender…….so I wasn’t sure why he would be brought up. But I think I get your point overall.
Pistons up by 12 at the end of the first quarter. Duren finally having a good game.
Magic cut it to 9. Cunningham only on pace for 5 turnovers…….which I guess is better than 8?
Pistons have 26 foul shots already lol. League working hard to keep them in series
I was about to post the same.
Definitely a game as of halftime!
It’s either NYK or the Celtics in the East. The rest of these teams are ass
short of seeing the celtics get bounced, it would bring me some joy to see the cavs season come to an end…
The last Raps – Cavs game they couldn’t score, how it’s 74-67 before half even ends.
I’ve been switching between the two games and even though the Detroit Orlando game is a defensive slugfest with lots of rim defense instead of an offensive explosion it is more compelling watching for me.
Magic have a chance in this game and they are blowing it at line now
Dueling 45-point games for Cunningham and Banchero. Looks like Magic probably aren’t going to get it done. Super-costly offensive foul by Carter.
Detroit won, but barely winning at home in a win or go home game when your opponent is missing a key player (Wagner) isn’t a world beating result. Now they have to win on the road Friday.
After a surprisingly good regular season, the East is starting to look just as shit as we thought it would be before the season. And I don’t think the Celtics are an exception.
I guess marcus smart isn’t so washed…
Unlike last year, where some teams in the East playin had really lousy records, all the teams in the playin and playoffs had above .500 records. The Heat were tenth and were at 0.529. The Magic and Phillies played 0.549 ball. I don’t think the competitive nature of the East first round playoffs means the East is bad; I think it is because even the number ten team in the East is a pretty good team.
where do the points come from for houston…feels like sheppard has to score 30 (doesn’t look like that’s going to happen) for the rockets to have a chance to win…
Good point KGNINJ. I stated my position poorly. The East is deep and competitive. I was thinking the upper echelon teams like Detroit & Cleveland look unserious.
I agree that Detroit and Cleveland don’t look as good as their records.
The only real question in these playoffs is how many games will the Spurs win in the WCF: 2 or 3?
Weird how the Lakers are playing worse with Austin Reaves back. Or is it?
This site uses User Verification plugin to reduce spam. See how your comment data is processed.