In both effort and rhetorical terms, KAT doesn’t seem to be remotely buying into The Mike Brown Experience.
On the bright side Knicks have a 10.47 SRS which is 2nd best in the NBA!
Interesting if only because our margin of victory is 0, so our SRS is identical to our strength of schedule.
Miami is 1st in SRS at 18.58, which probably makes them the best team of all-time by a wide margin.
Cleveland is 3rd at 9.18
Milwaukee is 4th at 8.20
Boston is 9th at 5.91.
Also, Diawara came in for 34 seconds, got absolutely cooked by Rollins on a possession, then left.
spurs and heat are the class of the nba right now nets pellies suns pacers are the dregs we couldnt possibly be any more mid than we are right now
Well, the good news so far is that Brown seems to have Brunson and Bridges playing some of their best ball since coming to the Knicks. The bad news is pretty much everything else.
Well, I for one have never bought into The Karl-Anthony Towns Experience, so whatever.
I am resigning myself to the idea that this team is very unlikely to win a championship with him being our most highly paid player. He’s a different version of Melo…a different kind of albatross, but an albatross just the same. Not in the sense of his contract per se, just that he weighs heavily on any championship aspirations, given his salary vs. his role on a championship team (and it’s far more about the salary than the role, although defining his role is difficult…suffice it to say that he is a situational player in the 4th quarter of some games, which should never be the case with a max player or anything close.)
I won’t relentlessly harp on it (a la E), and I’m sure there will be stretches when this take looks alarmist, even foolish. And I have no personal issues with KAT, he’s a really good guy, and he gives his all every night. I have zero problem with his effort level or his commitment to winning. I just think that the gaping holes in his game…physical, prossessing speed, and BBall-IQ, are set in stone at this point, and no coach is going to “unlock” him in a way that makes him a top-2 on a championship rotation player.
And sorry to anyone who is offended or appalled by my gloomy take on KAT this early in the season, especially with a new coach, with his quad injury, and with injuries/absence re: key players needed to complement the best version of his game. He’s obviously not as bad as he played last night, and I am confident that he will get back to his best self, at which time a more objective discussion can be had.
KAT deserves all the shit he’s getting for that performance last night but he’s clearly nowhere near 100% physically.
Apparently recency bias is a real thing. 😉
While I aligned with E & Z-Man on KAT, Im willing to give the team 20 or so games before drawing any conclusions. There is an adaptation period to Brown and his new rotations and schemes. That said some concerns exist: 1) WTF is up with Mitch. 2) How much is KAT’s quad injury informing his play. 3) How much is Josh Hart’s 4 finger shooting informing his shooting? If the finger can be fixed by surgery then that should be done immediately. If KAT’s quad won’t recover if he plays, then sit him until to does. This season is about gelling for the playoffs and trading early season wins for end of season/playoff wins seems to be the way to go.
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Our short term issues right now are familiarity with what coach Brown wants, Mitch and Deuce being out and Towns and Hart playing at less than 100%.
Our long term issues are defense, when Mitch is coming back and whether he can sustain good health for an extended period of time through the playoffs and whether Hart will return to form once he gets his wind and legs back.
PS: Hart should have gotten surgery (and probably still should if he can make it back for a late season run and playoffs).
PSS: Brown may want to tweak his strategy a little to fit the players better or maybe we should make a trade, but we can’t tell yet.
At this point in the season I’ll take a clueless, slightly hobbled, ineffective KAT over a revitalised Bridges, hands down. KAT will come around, flaws and all.
I like our chances if Mikal is our second best player and KAT our third in the new system better than vice versa.
I will also say that at this point I am not impressed with Mike Brown, in particular, as some sort of post-Thibs revelation. Obviously he deserves a lot of grace at this point, especially since a) firing Thibs was probably not the way that some players (and many pundits) wanted to go, so he has some hurdles in winning everyone over, b) NYC fans and media are notoriously short-sighted and every lousy game weighs more heavily than it would elsewhere, and c) the injury situation has been disruptive.
As I’ve said, the main question is, should Brown tinker around the edges of what worked last year, or engage in a complete overhaul? I’m more in the former camp, but it seems he’s committed to the latter strategy. The good news for me is that I have faith that “necessity” will have the team gravitating back to what worked under Thibs, with a change to the 10-20% that didn’t work. Meaning, I expect that the team will play somewhat faster, that the offense will be somewhat less Brunson-iso dependent, that there will be somewhat more flexibility with minutes and load management. The most important change that would be characterized as a radical departure from Thibs is in lineup configurations, which I think was Thibs’ most glaring flaw.
But at the end of the day, I think it will shake out as Brown being a lateral move because he has flaws in places that Thibs did not. He seems way to quick to cop to “we are playing badly and losing because they aren’t doing what I’m telling them to do.” He greased the skids out of Sacto by doing this, and he better be careful about doing it here.
Mikal’s playing better; that said, his usage has plummeted to 15.7. He’s skimming the best food from the cafeteria smorgasbord and leaving the rest to others.
Still a materially non-zero chance Mike Brown doesn’t last the year. If he doesn’t get buy-in from KAT, that increases the chances. He’s like the FOs sixth choice, behind even Thibs, and works for a very mercurial owner.
His “Don’t worry, I’m getting them ready for the playoffs” bank is very low. He taps into that at his own peril.
In any event, in the modern NBA, changing a star’s position and role in the offense, and not getting his buy-in, tends to get coaches whacked. Unless the team’s overall performance and record makes that silly. They’re not at that point right now.
PS: Hart should have gotten surgery (and probably still should if he can make it back for a late season run and playoffs).
The Knicks can’t allow Josh Hart to play if he keeps performing like this. Even the most inept Knicks staffer can see this. So if surgery is the only way, I imagine he’ll step away.
E, I noticed that as well, but think the improvement goes far beyond shot selection. He’s averaging 17.8 points per 36 on 15.7%, which is more than he averaged last year at a usage of 19.6%. So he’s scoring more points on 3.3 fewer shots per game. He’s also averaging 3.6 more rebounds per 36, plus more steals and blocks and fewer turnovers. Perhaps most notably is that his FT rate is back where it was in the two years before he got here.
This is a much better all-around version of Mikal, and it doesn’t seem to be coming at any cost, or due to a freaky small sample outlier. In fact, this is the best he may have ever played, and this player is worth every bit of what we gave up for him.
Now obviously he isn’t going to continue shooting 47% from 3, but beyond that, none of the numbers seem unsustainable…in fact, they are very much aligned with what he did in his best years in PHX.
While I agree that there’s a “non-zero” chance that Brown doesn’t last the year, I would put the chances at closer to zero than to 20%, meaning pretty negligible. He would have to totally lose the locker room for that to happen, particularly Brunson. I would expect that he adjusts based on player feedback (again, particularly Brunson) before that happens.
*It is a bit ironic that Brunson’s usage has actually increased under Brown, but I do think that his usage will go down and Mikal’s will go up over time.
**I should also add that hopefully there won’t be any more silly talk about Mikal being in some sort of physical decline. That take was just as silly as it was about Randle three years ago.
“If he doesn’t get buy-in from KAT, that increases the chances.”
Maybe, but it also increases the chances that KAT gets traded. Which I think would be a good thing! (ducks…)
Whatever one’s perspective on a KAT trade might be, they’re not picking Mike Brown over KAT.
KAT not being able to do anything with Kuzma on him has nothing to do with Brown. Same issue under Thibs. The book is out on him and teams will continue to deploy it until he does something to change the opposing teams strategy.
Even Thibs went away from what worked under Thibs. This team has been adrift on offense since the league figured out how to guard the Brunson/KAT pnr with Hart on the floor. There’s nothing that worked under Thibs last year to go back to.
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Hart should never be on the floor with Towns for major minutes, but last night I’ll chalk that up as not having other players available . Towns letting smaller players defend him is the biggest issue.
“Whatever one’s perspective on a KAT trade might be, they’re not picking Mike Brown over KAT.”
Well allow me to borry your clever phrasing: there’s a materially non-zero chance that both Mike Brown and KAT don’t last the year.*
* There is also a materially non-zero chance that KAT is being shopped as we speak.
1. Unless the recovery and rehab time for the thumb surgery would keep Hart out through the playoffs, the team needs to have a Come to Jesus conversation with him about it. No team can force a player to have surgery he doesn’t want to. But if Leon tells him his ass will be glued to the bench until he gets the thumb fixed, Josh might do it. He’s a flawed but incredibly helpful player when he’s merely reluctant to shoot. When he can’t hit water when falling out of a boat, he’s a disaster.
2. It doesn’t sound — both from his public comments and what some of the beats have alluded to — that KAT is buying into the Brown system. But there’s also the matter of the quad injury. It’s not an ideal time with Mitch out, Yabu also injured, and Huk and Jemison being young and raw-ish (Huk more than Jemison), but I think we might want to bite the bullet here, too, and have KAT rest a few games to see how he plays when the quad feels better. If he starts to have positive results playing Brown Ball, he might change his opinion of things.
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KAT hasn’t just had a dropoff, he has been putrid beyond belief, and if he’s too banged up to go, maybe they need to sit him for a while and take some L’s. The center position is not looking real good right now, with KAT stinking out the joint, Yabu looking too fat to run up and down the floor, and Mitch residing on the side of a milk carton. There’s also whatever the hell is going on with Deuce McBride and the Josh Hart situation looming over everything.
That’s a lot of talented, recently productive players who are giving us basically nothing. We really can’t afford an injury plagued gap year as this roster ages into its thirties. It’s kinda now or never.
Reposting here:
I’m not a doctor and can only speak with the authority of an overconfident WFAN caller about Hart’s decision not to get surgery, what the timetable would look like, and how much his finger (and back) are impeding him.
But I can say very confidently that he’s an enormously negative player for us right now, and not in ways that tend to sort themselves out e.g. OG’s 3PT%.
He’s only even attempting 28% of his shots at the rim so far (40% last year), and the less I say about his hit rate, from there and everywhere else, the better. He’s simply not doing the Josh Hart Things™ that make up, and then some, for him being guarded like Mitch on the perimeter.
I’ve said before and I will say again that there are people who generally take Hart’s importance to this team way too lightly. Versatile wings who can guard up and down, make plays, get out in transition with the best of them, and rebound like a demon don’t grow on trees. This all applies even more so to the current Knicks, who want for athleticism generally. Warts and all, I think it’s no accident we’ve consistently been meaningfully better with him on the court since he arrived. A prolonged absence would hurt us.
But he sucks right now and getting him right needs to be an urgent priority, because it’s hard to win tough games giving a lot of minutes to someone who sucks. Whether it’s rest for his back, getting the hand surgery, or whatever else, get it done and patch up the holes somehow.
Five coaches in nine years (I’m counting Thibs twice) tried and failed to fully “unlock” a guy whose mere presence was supposed to unlock easy offense for all of those around him, or at least that was the hope when he came into the league. Touted multiple times by rival GM’s as the player they’d most want to build their franchise around, Towns was supposed to be the skeleton key, not the guy who required one.
And yet here we are, now on coach number six, in year no. 10, and we’re still having the same conversations we’ve been having for the better part of a decade.
Macri on Towns in today’s news article
?
KAT was “unlocked” as recently as last season.
“He’s like the FOs sixth choice…”
This is a very important point, and may have factored in to the building out of the coaching staff. Since most of us were hoping for a more exciting upside choice rather than a recently fired retread, this might be a refreshing outcome. Is there anyone on the staff who would fit that bill?
I’m going to hold my tongue a bit on KAT because I think he’s compromised and with Yabu and Mitch both down I don’t want to bludgeon the guy for giving it a go.
But as I said in the game thread in multiple ways last night, that was a brutal watch.
KAT was “unlocked” for 2 months last year, E, probably bc it had been a couple years since the league saw him at C and some teams forgot about the trouble he has when guarded by wings. Since the memo got recirculated, he’s been up and down.
KAT gave us everything we could rightfully expect from him last year. He’s an excellent offensive player…3rd team all-NBA, same BPM as Brunson. Even in the playoffs he largely held his own.
But he has gaping holes in his all-around game and doesn’t make his teammates better. In particular, he and Brunson are not complementary. Yet if you even have to think about benching KAT down the stretch for defensive person, his value decreases by $20M AAV.
“the team needs to have a Come to Jesus conversation with him about it. No team can force a player to have surgery he doesn’t want to.”
Mitch had 2 ankle surgeries. The first obviously didn’t take because he had the 2nd, but it was clear the 2nd didn’t take when he had the 4 month setback last season and now this after 44 minutes of pre-season game play. Also remember Hart had finger surgery back in June or July (reports are that he had it in June but the Knicks announced it on July 16…typical). That didn’t take either after I assume 2-3 months of inactivity and perhaps explains the reticence of the medical staff to ask him (or Mitch for that matter) to undergo the knife again. But that is not a good surgery track record.
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“I’m going to hold my tongue a bit on KAT because I think he’s compromised and with Yabu and Mitch both down I don’t want to bludgeon the guy for giving it a go.”
I agree, and to be clear, if what I’m saying today comes across as “bludgeoning” him based solely on his performance thus far this year, then I am not communicating effectively. He generally deserves enormous credit for playing through injury (he did this on many occasions last year as well.) He’s not soft at all in that regard, in fact, he’s tough as nails. Last night I pointed out that he was battling extremely hard on the boards on both ends, and was a huge plus in that area, even keeping us in the game at points.
An I do expect for him to go on a tear sooner than later. He’s too good to be playing like this for long.
My gripes about him are long running, and are not swayed by his stretches of brilliant offensive play. Much like folks felt about Melo even at his zenith. Again, very similar players in that regard.
Its been very frustrating watching the new offense so far but the 2nd quarters vs the Celtics and Bucks definitely give a huge glimmer of hope. The ceiling of this team seems much higher than last year but reaching that ceiling consistently enough is the big question.
Reminder:
– the Knicks ORtg was 112.3 after the all star break (22nd in the league)
– the Knicks net rating was just +0.3 after the all star break (18th)
– the Knicks had a negative net rating in the playoffs and the offense was terrible with two glorious exceptions (games 4 & 6 against Boston)
What part of this do you want Brown to go back to?
We can’t get back to the Knicks offense that was able to lead the league in scoring with Josh Hart on the floor for the first two months of the season. It’s not available anymore. Hasn’t been since January.
“Its been very frustrating watching the new offense so far but the 2nd quarters vs the Celtics and Bucks definitely give a huge glimmer of hope. The ceiling of this team seems much higher than last year but reaching that ceiling consistently enough is the big question.”
I agree, BBA. But even shitty teams run off great quarters against good teams. I don’t think you can judge a team based on how they perform in isolated quarters when “everything comes together.”
The best arguments for our overall shittiness thus far are a) games missed by key players, b) other key players playing at less than 100%, and c) a new system under a new coach. I don’t think the “ceiling” has been raised one iota post-Thibs based on what we’ve seen thus far. We had a million great quarters under Thibs where it looked like the sky was the limit, even with guys hurt.
I’m not quite exactly sure how it came to pass that Karl-Anthony Towns’s role was changed so dramatically that “Karl-Anthony Towns is still adjusting to his new role” is an actual thing in the actual regular season.
His position change and role change flew way too far under the Knickland radar. I’d be shocked if that was the FO’s objective/expectation. Guaranteed they didn’t think there would be both a significant role change and an answer from the changee as late as October 21 regarding how the change was going of, “Honestly, I don’t know.”
The Knicks had virtually the same record in the first half of the season (when the offense was one of the best in the NBA) as they did in the second half (when our offense apparently cratered.) Then they came within two wins of making it to the NBA finals with that shitty offense.
I sure can’t wait until Brown’s revelation of an offense kicks in! Finals here we come!
PS Brunson was injured for many games post all-star break, and yet I recall folks saying that it actually improved the flow of the offense? Were there more sprays?
The “sprays” thing is huckster junk science. I guess it presumes that a “spray” is more likely to lead to an open three and therefore a more easily assisted upon three, but there’s no relationship between % of threes assisted, and team quality.
Last year’s leaders in assisted threes:
1. Toronto Raptors
2. Brooklyn Nets
3. Phoenix Suns
4. Golden State Warriors
5. Memphis Grizzlies
6. Miami Heat
7. Sacramento Kings
8. Chicago Bulls
OKC was 12th. Boston was 26th and that team hunted good threes via the pass arguably better than any team in association history.
Small sample size, but the Knick effective field goal percentage has also fallen off a cliff, from .556 to .488, third from last in the league.
I am not completely sold on KAT. He just continue to make head-scratching plays on both defense and offense. I find myself shaking my head at him over and over. And it isn’t just because he may be playing with a quad injury. It was last year too. I said this last night, but watching him drive to the basket is painful for the viewer. He is out of control and ends up flinging the ball. He plays much smaller than what his size is too. It is rough watching him be guarded by smaller players.
The Knicks might be better off trading him for a few solid to good pieces. Like 2-3 players. That would also help with depth. I don’t know if he is a trade piece for a very good player, b/c I don’t think a lot of very good teams would want him. But maybe a mid team would.
Brown should swap Hart & KAT’s roles in the offense. Haven’t looked for it that closely, so maybe he’s tried it.
The C is more of a facilitating hub, running handoffs from the high post and finding cutters, while wings hit 3s or attack the basket after getting the handoff or a pass off of secondary action. Which position sounds more like Hart and which sounds more like KAT?
Of course, role doesn’t explain why the 2fg% for both is sub-.370.
Again, I ask: which part of Thibs’ offense do we want Brown to bring back?
The abandonment of KAT as a screener?
The endless Josh Hart picks for Brunson? (I’m sure those would be humming right now.)
The overextension of starters so that we can get them 6-8 mins a game against backups?
Everything that worked last year came during the period when Towns was being guarded by an opposing Center. The league stopped doing us that favor and won’t be doing it again.
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One thing I’m seeing in the offense is that we buy time by getting up the court sooner, but then squander multiple seconds running some sort of weave that goes nowhere. So there really isn’t any improvement is getting better shots sooner in the clock. This seems to jibe with Brunson having a higher usage despite all the passing and him being theoretically off the ball more and not bringing the ball up vs. pressure as much.
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I don’t know the correlational facts between assisted 3 pt% and “team quality”, but assisted basket percentage–and assisted 2pt% and assisted 3 pt%–is one of the offensive stats most highly correlated with both raw wins and consequently SRS over a large sample. Performance on newfangled shot quality metrics (like the creatively named ‘ShotQuality’) are also highly correlated with wins and consequently SRS. That said, it is at least possible that assisted 3 percentage is a poor proxy in certain cases for actual shot quality, if the assists amount to overpassing and passing up a better shot for a worse one. But that this is the case writ large has to be shown, not assumed, and it seems like the burden of proof is on those who think that assisted three percentage is not correlated with wins to prove it.
If “team quality” means something other than wins, it should be defined, because everyone knows–player, coach, and egghead statistician alike–that, ceteris paribus, assisted baskets are more conducive to generating wins than unassisted baskets. We should be getting the sprays up!
I don’t want to go out on a limb but I’m started to get the sense that firing the most successfuly Knicks coach in a quarter-century, largely because he just didn’t coach “the right way,” might be turning out to be a mistake.
WHO COULD HAVE EVER PREDICTED SUCH A THING?!?!?!?
Z-Man, I like what you said about Brown and tinker around the edges versus a complete overhaul.
I also feel we don’t need to aim for such high pace. I don’t believe every team needs to aim to play so fast and launch endless threes. I know we have to increase our 3’s compared to last year, but I think at some point there needs to be a middle ground. You can win in the NBA playing different styles. I don’t think our squad is made to play like we currently are. I do realize it is an adjustment period though.
then squander multiple seconds running some sort of weave that goes nowhere. So there really isn’t any improvement is getting better shots sooner in the clock.
Figuring out the weave is part of the offense. It’s one of multiple actions Brown runs during a possession. Having the opportunity to run multiple actions is better than running a single action, and a benefit of getting the ball up earlier. Thibs would frequently run a SG for a fake handoff (always a fake) to waste extra time anyways.
A lot of the problems with the offense are just injured players and players missing shots. Other issues like overreliance on the system instead of attacking, OG being a bit too aggressive shooting 3s, and some bad passing TOs will sort themselves out.
Mikal’s playing better; that said, his usage has plummeted to 15.7. He’s skimming the best food from the cafeteria smorgasbord and leaving the rest to others.
That’s part of it and the point I was making all last year when people said we needed the peak Sun’s version. The Sun’s version may look much better on some AIO models because he was so efficient, but he’s a better player now (and last year) in terms of skills and should be doing more for us.
The idea was to was to find the balance between how much we needed him to score as 3rd option and his efficiency and to improve his 3 point shot from last year where the very slow start was due to experimentation.
Things like assists and rebounds are also partly role.
This year he’s handling the ball a little more and looking to make plays more. Brunson is handling less. So Mikal’s assists are up and Brunson’s are down a little. That’s Brown changing their roles a bit.
These models are kind of silly because they don’t take coach, system, role, teammates and short term impacts into account.
In the mean time, I doubt he’s going to keep shooting this well from 3. Stil, he looks WAY more comfortable and confidenr this year.
My gripes about him are long running, and are not swayed by his stretches of brilliant offensive play. Much like folks felt about Melo even at his zenith. Again, very similar players in that regard.
The main difference between Melo and Towns or even Melo and Randle despite all being less than ideal defensive players and more prone to brain fart plays is that Towns is an extremely efficient scorer. That adds a lot of value. He’s not a two way star though, so you have to put together lineups that make sense with him because he’s a major piece.
We’ve discussed the Towns/Brunson combo to death.
Personally, I think Towns is just trying to be a “warrior Knick” playing through injuries while Mitch is out, but what we really need is to get him healthy and with the new program. He should probably take a 2-3 games off.
A gentle reminder….
2024-2025 Knicks record first 10 games – 5-5 (won 51 games)
2023-2024 record first 10 games – 5-5 (won 50 games)
2022-2023 record first 10 games – 5-5 (won 47 games)
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Alecto, I don’t believe that “sprays” and “assisted 3’s” are synonymous, and good looks from 3, whether catch-and-shoot or player going under screens or off misses and offensive rebounds that are kicked out. To me, there is no marginal value between an assisted 3 that came from a pass out of the paint by a driver and an assisted 3 generated in a hockey “around the horn” assist or an assisted 3 out of a pass off a high PnR double or as a player crosses the timeline. There are lots of ways to “tilt” the defense, and the less predictable, the better. At the end of the day, running an offense that generates lots of quality looks from 3 is an important goal, but shouldn’t be the only, or even the primary goal.
“Again, I ask: which part of Thibs’ offense do we want Brown to bring back?
The abandonment of KAT as a screener?
The endless Josh Hart picks for Brunson? (I’m sure those would be humming right now.)
The overextension of starters so that we can get them 6-8 mins a game against backups?
Everything that worked last year came during the period when Towns was being guarded by an opposing Center. The league stopped doing us that favor and won’t be doing it again.”
Right, and after that, nothing worked, and as a result we put up a much worse record and made an early exit from the playoffs. Oh wait…
Seriously, it’s fair to say that Brown should run more actions with Brunson and KAT in PnR, that Deuce should play with the starters more and Hart should play with them less, that the starters should be rested more and more strategically, that Brunson should not be bringing the ball up against intense pressure from wings, that the team, and KAT specifically, should take more 3’s, that the deep bench should be played more so as to be more ready when they are needed…. These changes are all in the realm of “tinkering” with what Thibs’ team did well last year, not overhauling.
In other words, you don’t need radically changed roles or a radically changed offense to infuse these principles.
If anything, the roles on defense are where radical changes were needed, especially with KAT (less drop) and Bridges (less POA), and so far, so good.
That’s part of it and the point I was making all last year when people said we needed the peak Sun’s version. The Sun’s version may look much better on some AIO models because he was so efficient, but he’s a better player now (and last year) in terms of skills and should be doing more for us.
So was the skill last year throwing the ball out of bounds 4 times a game? Because that’s basically what his extra usage amounted to last year compared to this year.
He’s scoring slightly more points this year. There’s no advantage to the extra usage if they’re all just misses.
disclaimer its from ai:
In basketball, “spray” can mean passing the ball out to a shooter, especially from driving into the paint, to create an open shot. It can also be used as slang for a very bad shot, similar to “spray” as in something that misses its intended target.
Thanks ai, but we already know the definition. As Z-Man said better than I could, there’s no reason to hunt “spray” passes to three point shooters, as opposed to any other kind of action to three point shooters.
Happy to see data to the contrary. Doubt it exists.
Mitch – injured.
Deuce – unavailable
Hart – playing but clearly injured
KAT – playing but clearly injured
Knickerblogger: Why did we lose?
“Stick to politics, MBunge” is not a sentence I thought I’d write, yet here I am.
It’s been 4 games, we have major health problems, and we’re 2-2. Last year we started with full health except for Mitch, we used a 7.5 man playoff rotation from the get go, and were 6-6. And Thibs never came under this level of scrutiny.
All I see here is a small group of resentful Thibs’ acolytes coming up with ridiculous arguments every day to shit on a new coach prematurely. They want to hold Mike Brown in week 1 to the same standard folks held Thibs to in the playoffs of his 5th year.
The stupidity of this is matched only by how predictable it was.
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Mitch – injured.
Deuce – unavailable
Hart – playing but clearly injured
KAT – playing but clearly injured
Boy, I cannot wait to never read Phil’s book! Thanks for the tip, Noble!
“Spray threes” seems like a shorthand for “threes coming off a potential assist from a penetrator.” Given that there is a strong correlation between assist rate, team 3PT%, and offensive success, I don’t see why it’s controversial to try to generate this kind of shot.
That there wasn’t much of correlation between % of 3PM assisted and offensive success tells you nothing. The Raptors were indeed 1st in this category, but were 29th in 3PAr. Obviously, assisting on a lot of your 3PA will not do wonders for you if you don’t have many 3PA.
Objecting to this as a goal is bizarre.
The worry with Brown isn’t the record or the poor underlying numbers in an extremely small sample size; it’s that he saw fit to massively change the role of the all-NBA player he inherited without getting anything remotely like buy in from the player.
For now, i’m on my usual “let’s wait 20 games before saying bold things” watch. But yeah, there’s some concerning stuff that probably won’t go away before game 20.
All I know is that Brown is playing guys significant minutes that wouldn’t have sniffed the court under Thibs (Kolek e.g.) Sure in the short run we might lose some games because Brunson sat an extra five minutes, but in the long run playing 11 guys makes a lot more sense than running the starters into the ground to grind out a couple of extra wins.
And as I said in a prior post, when the inevitable injury happens to a starter, the guys who have been getting minutes off the bench will be ready to step in.
I gotta be better about post-game threads. The losses just piss me off so much that I forget, and it’s suddenly the next morning.
My apologies! I’ll be sure to do a post-game thread even if they lose on Friday.
The only long-term concerns I have at the moment are Hart’s ability to shoot with a splint on his fingers, Mitch’s injury management limbo, and Yabu looking like a Fred Flintstone Yabu Dabba Doo-doo.
In last nights thread we had Brunson out for a month or two.
In last nights thread we had Brunson out for a month or two.
Yeah, that was pretty funny. It was like Lazarus had just come back.
I’ll be sure to do a post-game thread even if they lose on Friday.
ugh, sure feels like we are in the .500 club again…who knows if we’ll win or lose any game we play…
We’ll win… it’s Friday night Knicks™ ! 😉
I don’t know if arguing about firing coaches and dumping on players after 4 games with 5 of the top 8 players out or compromised is the silliest thing I have ever read, but it is close.
Boy, I cannot wait to never read Phil’s book! Thanks for the tip, Noble!
He played against or coached with or against virtually every semi modern top player in the entire history of the game excepting Cousy and Bob Pettit. He might have some interesting takes or historical stories.
He is also completely lacking in self-awareness, Bob, and seems to have pinned all his failures in New York on Melo. Hard goddamn pass. If I want to hear stories about the various teams he played for, coached, or served as an executive of, there are plenty of reading options I’d find more reliable and entertaining.
Phil was the one fucking dumb enough to give Melo a megamax contract, and Melo actually played pretty well by his own standards in some of those years. But since he didn’t magically turn into a first team all NBA player because of the hallowed triangle offense, now the whole thing was Melo’s fault.
Fuck Phil’s dumb narcissist ass. Was it Melo’s idea to give out that contract to Joakim Noah too?
I’ll be happy to shower praise on Mike Brown the second he earns it. He didn’t earn it in any other long-term coaching gig he had before getting here. He rode on the coattails of the GOAT, then did nothing with the Lakers, then had very short-lived success taking over a decent but undercoached team in dysfunctional Sacto before losing the team and then being run out of town. He’s definitely not a better coach than Thibs based on accomplishment, and there’s a reasonable chance that he’s worse in enough regards to make it a wash. But hey, he says the right things and smiles a lot, so there’s that!
I’m giving him the grace period he deserves, but no more than that. He’s done nothing prior to coming here to deserve it. When I see positive results that can be directly attributed to his coaching, I will be happy to sing his praises, but not before. Folks are certainly free to feel otherwise.
BTW, a point being left out of this conversation is the premature assumption that the East is not as dead as folks have made it out to be. Beyond Cleveland, Orlando and Detroit:
-Milwaukee has Giannis playing like an MVP and an actually decent supporting cast.
-Miami has Spo and some nice pieces. Losing Rozier is addition by subtraction. No Jimmy drama. Norman Powell is very good.
-Indiana might be the most underrated of all, they are well coached and have lots of fun players. Mathurin is getting better. When they get healthy (not including Hali), they will be a headache for any team they play.
Other teams have improved: Chicago, Toronto, Washington, perhaps even Charlotte when they get healthy.
So we are not going to have many cakewalk games in the East, especially with our injury situation. Oddly, he team that seems the most likely to be easy for us to beat is the Celtics. Their bigs are terrible, and both Prichard and Hauser are better suited to be bench players. I wouldn’t be surprised at all if they went into full tank mode at some point.
“All I see here is a small group of resentful Thibs’ acolytes coming up with ridiculous arguments every day to shit on a new coach prematurely. They want to hold Mike Brown in week 1 to the same standard folks held Thibs to in the playoffs of his 5th year.”
Not the least bit surprising that this is “all you see.”
Despite being a Thibs supporter from day 1 i found his firing inevitable and turned the coach page wo looking back.
Brown convinced me about fast and smart modern bball in the first 2 games but disappointed me with his unsuccessful execution of the “next man up” condition.
My concern is mainly about Brown having the ability to make this roster believe in him and focus on teamball instead of chasing stats and playing soulless basketball while waiting to get paid…
If I want to hear stories about the various teams he played for, coached, or served as an executive of, there are plenty of reading options I’d find more reliable and entertaining.
And you know that before he writes the book? It must be nice to have ESP.
Celtics tanking in a loaded draft at the top isn’t all that bad. Silver will grant them with a nice pick
Phil isn’t likable. He had a great coaching career but he’s an insufferable self-serving blowhard. I wouldn’t be interested in reading Michael Jordan’s memoir either, for the same reasons.
1
It’s more that he’s a self-serving narcissist with multiple axes to grind and zero objectivity. A truly questionable narrator, and it’s tiresome to read something where most of what you see you have to take with various grains of salt. Or the entire shaker.
It almost goes without saying that I hate the Celtics, but it’s making me feel just a little warm and fuzzy that they’re spanking Cleveland’s butt at the moment.
I find it remarkably petty that Phil would even take the time to slight Melo in such a book.
Not to mention this passage…
“Dolan said to me, ‘Are you going to get run out of town by the media?’ I said, ‘I know who the media is; that doesn’t affect me,’ ” Jackson said in the Carmelo chapter of his book, “Masters of the Game,” a conversational read on the 75 greatest players through the lens of the legendary coach and Hall of Fame scribe Sam Smith. “But Dolan felt it was too much. He said, ‘I don’t want you to go through it. I know what it’s like to deal with these people.’ I said, ‘Unfortunately my relationship with Carmelo is kind of busted, and if he’s going to be here, it’s probably best that I go.’ ”
…reads to me like someone knowing what button to push to get his $20M without working.
2
I left out Philly as a team to be reckoned with…
Phil didn’t get fired because he put a product on the court that was absolute hot trash. Oh no. It was because the media was mean to him and Dolan couldn’t bear to see it.
Bad decision by Teo there…
FWIW every team that the Knicks have played so far, other than the C’s (who have a 10 pt. lead on the Cavs in the 4th), are off to a good start. Which will continue to be me excuse if we lose against the Bulls on Friday.
Maybe I was a bit too hard on the Celts…
I don’t get how Cleveland is losing, they have Larry Nance Jr.!
I thought the Magic were supposed to be some sort of defensive juggernaut?
Gave up 135 points to the Pistons tonight and in the prior game 136 points to Philly
It’s way early but Orlando is my candidate for most overrated Eastern Conference team
other than maybe you know…….us
Not Bad!
In his first 120 NBA Games, Victor Wembanyama has scored more points (2738) than LeBron James (2680), collected more rebounds (1301) than Karl Malone (1091), blocked more shots (448) than Hakeem Olajuwon (337), and made more 3s (274) than Stephen Curry (242), in their respective first 120 NBA games
I may be pulling a donnie this season and jump on the spurs bandwagon…
Wemby is 21 years old.
None of Wilt’s records are safe.
Austin Reaves as a 1st option isn’t bad at all
None of Wilt’s records are safe.
You think that Wemby’s body is holding up for 1045 games?
Reaves for the win wow
lakers are a lot more fun to watch without lebron or luka…
Reaves is def going to get a huge pay day
I’ve always said here that I prefer long, competitive series to easy victories. So I don’t mind the Dodgers having to scratch and claw. The problem is, they’re not scratching and they’re doing even less clawing. It’s now down to Yamamoto on friday and the kitchen sink on saturday. Kitchen sink could be enormously entertaining, so definitely hoping for it.
I like yamamoto a bunch, in a game filled with giant sized folks, particularly pitchers these days – there’s yamamoto up on the mound dealing at 5’10” 180lbs or so…
rooting for the jays of course, o’ canada…
I am in Europe this week and didn’t watch the two losses, but the Knicks going 28-94 from deep seems more meaningful than tactical issues? We probably need to get used to getting games like this now that they are shooting a good amount of 3s.
“None of Wilt’s records are safe.”
wilts record of 100 points in a game is very very very safe
109 replies on “2025-10-29 Daily Post”
In both effort and rhetorical terms, KAT doesn’t seem to be remotely buying into The Mike Brown Experience.
Interesting if only because our margin of victory is 0, so our SRS is identical to our strength of schedule.
Miami is 1st in SRS at 18.58, which probably makes them the best team of all-time by a wide margin.
Cleveland is 3rd at 9.18
Milwaukee is 4th at 8.20
Boston is 9th at 5.91.
Also, Diawara came in for 34 seconds, got absolutely cooked by Rollins on a possession, then left.
spurs and heat are the class of the nba right now nets pellies suns pacers are the dregs we couldnt possibly be any more mid than we are right now
Well, the good news so far is that Brown seems to have Brunson and Bridges playing some of their best ball since coming to the Knicks. The bad news is pretty much everything else.
Well, I for one have never bought into The Karl-Anthony Towns Experience, so whatever.
I am resigning myself to the idea that this team is very unlikely to win a championship with him being our most highly paid player. He’s a different version of Melo…a different kind of albatross, but an albatross just the same. Not in the sense of his contract per se, just that he weighs heavily on any championship aspirations, given his salary vs. his role on a championship team (and it’s far more about the salary than the role, although defining his role is difficult…suffice it to say that he is a situational player in the 4th quarter of some games, which should never be the case with a max player or anything close.)
I won’t relentlessly harp on it (a la E), and I’m sure there will be stretches when this take looks alarmist, even foolish. And I have no personal issues with KAT, he’s a really good guy, and he gives his all every night. I have zero problem with his effort level or his commitment to winning. I just think that the gaping holes in his game…physical, prossessing speed, and BBall-IQ, are set in stone at this point, and no coach is going to “unlock” him in a way that makes him a top-2 on a championship rotation player.
And sorry to anyone who is offended or appalled by my gloomy take on KAT this early in the season, especially with a new coach, with his quad injury, and with injuries/absence re: key players needed to complement the best version of his game. He’s obviously not as bad as he played last night, and I am confident that he will get back to his best self, at which time a more objective discussion can be had.
KAT deserves all the shit he’s getting for that performance last night but he’s clearly nowhere near 100% physically.
Apparently recency bias is a real thing. 😉
While I aligned with E & Z-Man on KAT, Im willing to give the team 20 or so games before drawing any conclusions. There is an adaptation period to Brown and his new rotations and schemes. That said some concerns exist: 1) WTF is up with Mitch. 2) How much is KAT’s quad injury informing his play. 3) How much is Josh Hart’s 4 finger shooting informing his shooting? If the finger can be fixed by surgery then that should be done immediately. If KAT’s quad won’t recover if he plays, then sit him until to does. This season is about gelling for the playoffs and trading early season wins for end of season/playoff wins seems to be the way to go.
Our short term issues right now are familiarity with what coach Brown wants, Mitch and Deuce being out and Towns and Hart playing at less than 100%.
Our long term issues are defense, when Mitch is coming back and whether he can sustain good health for an extended period of time through the playoffs and whether Hart will return to form once he gets his wind and legs back.
PS: Hart should have gotten surgery (and probably still should if he can make it back for a late season run and playoffs).
PSS: Brown may want to tweak his strategy a little to fit the players better or maybe we should make a trade, but we can’t tell yet.
At this point in the season I’ll take a clueless, slightly hobbled, ineffective KAT over a revitalised Bridges, hands down. KAT will come around, flaws and all.
I like our chances if Mikal is our second best player and KAT our third in the new system better than vice versa.
I will also say that at this point I am not impressed with Mike Brown, in particular, as some sort of post-Thibs revelation. Obviously he deserves a lot of grace at this point, especially since a) firing Thibs was probably not the way that some players (and many pundits) wanted to go, so he has some hurdles in winning everyone over, b) NYC fans and media are notoriously short-sighted and every lousy game weighs more heavily than it would elsewhere, and c) the injury situation has been disruptive.
As I’ve said, the main question is, should Brown tinker around the edges of what worked last year, or engage in a complete overhaul? I’m more in the former camp, but it seems he’s committed to the latter strategy. The good news for me is that I have faith that “necessity” will have the team gravitating back to what worked under Thibs, with a change to the 10-20% that didn’t work. Meaning, I expect that the team will play somewhat faster, that the offense will be somewhat less Brunson-iso dependent, that there will be somewhat more flexibility with minutes and load management. The most important change that would be characterized as a radical departure from Thibs is in lineup configurations, which I think was Thibs’ most glaring flaw.
But at the end of the day, I think it will shake out as Brown being a lateral move because he has flaws in places that Thibs did not. He seems way to quick to cop to “we are playing badly and losing because they aren’t doing what I’m telling them to do.” He greased the skids out of Sacto by doing this, and he better be careful about doing it here.
Mikal’s playing better; that said, his usage has plummeted to 15.7. He’s skimming the best food from the cafeteria smorgasbord and leaving the rest to others.
Still a materially non-zero chance Mike Brown doesn’t last the year. If he doesn’t get buy-in from KAT, that increases the chances. He’s like the FOs sixth choice, behind even Thibs, and works for a very mercurial owner.
His “Don’t worry, I’m getting them ready for the playoffs” bank is very low. He taps into that at his own peril.
In any event, in the modern NBA, changing a star’s position and role in the offense, and not getting his buy-in, tends to get coaches whacked. Unless the team’s overall performance and record makes that silly. They’re not at that point right now.
The Knicks can’t allow Josh Hart to play if he keeps performing like this. Even the most inept Knicks staffer can see this. So if surgery is the only way, I imagine he’ll step away.
E, I noticed that as well, but think the improvement goes far beyond shot selection. He’s averaging 17.8 points per 36 on 15.7%, which is more than he averaged last year at a usage of 19.6%. So he’s scoring more points on 3.3 fewer shots per game. He’s also averaging 3.6 more rebounds per 36, plus more steals and blocks and fewer turnovers. Perhaps most notably is that his FT rate is back where it was in the two years before he got here.
This is a much better all-around version of Mikal, and it doesn’t seem to be coming at any cost, or due to a freaky small sample outlier. In fact, this is the best he may have ever played, and this player is worth every bit of what we gave up for him.
Now obviously he isn’t going to continue shooting 47% from 3, but beyond that, none of the numbers seem unsustainable…in fact, they are very much aligned with what he did in his best years in PHX.
While I agree that there’s a “non-zero” chance that Brown doesn’t last the year, I would put the chances at closer to zero than to 20%, meaning pretty negligible. He would have to totally lose the locker room for that to happen, particularly Brunson. I would expect that he adjusts based on player feedback (again, particularly Brunson) before that happens.
*It is a bit ironic that Brunson’s usage has actually increased under Brown, but I do think that his usage will go down and Mikal’s will go up over time.
**I should also add that hopefully there won’t be any more silly talk about Mikal being in some sort of physical decline. That take was just as silly as it was about Randle three years ago.
“If he doesn’t get buy-in from KAT, that increases the chances.”
Maybe, but it also increases the chances that KAT gets traded. Which I think would be a good thing! (ducks…)
Whatever one’s perspective on a KAT trade might be, they’re not picking Mike Brown over KAT.
KAT not being able to do anything with Kuzma on him has nothing to do with Brown. Same issue under Thibs. The book is out on him and teams will continue to deploy it until he does something to change the opposing teams strategy.
Even Thibs went away from what worked under Thibs. This team has been adrift on offense since the league figured out how to guard the Brunson/KAT pnr with Hart on the floor. There’s nothing that worked under Thibs last year to go back to.
Hart should never be on the floor with Towns for major minutes, but last night I’ll chalk that up as not having other players available . Towns letting smaller players defend him is the biggest issue.
“Whatever one’s perspective on a KAT trade might be, they’re not picking Mike Brown over KAT.”
Well allow me to borry your clever phrasing: there’s a materially non-zero chance that both Mike Brown and KAT don’t last the year.*
* There is also a materially non-zero chance that KAT is being shopped as we speak.
1. Unless the recovery and rehab time for the thumb surgery would keep Hart out through the playoffs, the team needs to have a Come to Jesus conversation with him about it. No team can force a player to have surgery he doesn’t want to. But if Leon tells him his ass will be glued to the bench until he gets the thumb fixed, Josh might do it. He’s a flawed but incredibly helpful player when he’s merely reluctant to shoot. When he can’t hit water when falling out of a boat, he’s a disaster.
2. It doesn’t sound — both from his public comments and what some of the beats have alluded to — that KAT is buying into the Brown system. But there’s also the matter of the quad injury. It’s not an ideal time with Mitch out, Yabu also injured, and Huk and Jemison being young and raw-ish (Huk more than Jemison), but I think we might want to bite the bullet here, too, and have KAT rest a few games to see how he plays when the quad feels better. If he starts to have positive results playing Brown Ball, he might change his opinion of things.
KAT hasn’t just had a dropoff, he has been putrid beyond belief, and if he’s too banged up to go, maybe they need to sit him for a while and take some L’s. The center position is not looking real good right now, with KAT stinking out the joint, Yabu looking too fat to run up and down the floor, and Mitch residing on the side of a milk carton. There’s also whatever the hell is going on with Deuce McBride and the Josh Hart situation looming over everything.
That’s a lot of talented, recently productive players who are giving us basically nothing. We really can’t afford an injury plagued gap year as this roster ages into its thirties. It’s kinda now or never.
Reposting here:
I’m not a doctor and can only speak with the authority of an overconfident WFAN caller about Hart’s decision not to get surgery, what the timetable would look like, and how much his finger (and back) are impeding him.
But I can say very confidently that he’s an enormously negative player for us right now, and not in ways that tend to sort themselves out e.g. OG’s 3PT%.
He’s only even attempting 28% of his shots at the rim so far (40% last year), and the less I say about his hit rate, from there and everywhere else, the better. He’s simply not doing the Josh Hart Things™ that make up, and then some, for him being guarded like Mitch on the perimeter.
I’ve said before and I will say again that there are people who generally take Hart’s importance to this team way too lightly. Versatile wings who can guard up and down, make plays, get out in transition with the best of them, and rebound like a demon don’t grow on trees. This all applies even more so to the current Knicks, who want for athleticism generally. Warts and all, I think it’s no accident we’ve consistently been meaningfully better with him on the court since he arrived. A prolonged absence would hurt us.
But he sucks right now and getting him right needs to be an urgent priority, because it’s hard to win tough games giving a lot of minutes to someone who sucks. Whether it’s rest for his back, getting the hand surgery, or whatever else, get it done and patch up the holes somehow.
Macri on Towns in today’s news article
?
KAT was “unlocked” as recently as last season.
“He’s like the FOs sixth choice…”
This is a very important point, and may have factored in to the building out of the coaching staff. Since most of us were hoping for a more exciting upside choice rather than a recently fired retread, this might be a refreshing outcome. Is there anyone on the staff who would fit that bill?
I’m going to hold my tongue a bit on KAT because I think he’s compromised and with Yabu and Mitch both down I don’t want to bludgeon the guy for giving it a go.
But as I said in the game thread in multiple ways last night, that was a brutal watch.
KAT was “unlocked” for 2 months last year, E, probably bc it had been a couple years since the league saw him at C and some teams forgot about the trouble he has when guarded by wings. Since the memo got recirculated, he’s been up and down.
KAT gave us everything we could rightfully expect from him last year. He’s an excellent offensive player…3rd team all-NBA, same BPM as Brunson. Even in the playoffs he largely held his own.
But he has gaping holes in his all-around game and doesn’t make his teammates better. In particular, he and Brunson are not complementary. Yet if you even have to think about benching KAT down the stretch for defensive person, his value decreases by $20M AAV.
“the team needs to have a Come to Jesus conversation with him about it. No team can force a player to have surgery he doesn’t want to.”
Mitch had 2 ankle surgeries. The first obviously didn’t take because he had the 2nd, but it was clear the 2nd didn’t take when he had the 4 month setback last season and now this after 44 minutes of pre-season game play. Also remember Hart had finger surgery back in June or July (reports are that he had it in June but the Knicks announced it on July 16…typical). That didn’t take either after I assume 2-3 months of inactivity and perhaps explains the reticence of the medical staff to ask him (or Mitch for that matter) to undergo the knife again. But that is not a good surgery track record.
“I’m going to hold my tongue a bit on KAT because I think he’s compromised and with Yabu and Mitch both down I don’t want to bludgeon the guy for giving it a go.”
I agree, and to be clear, if what I’m saying today comes across as “bludgeoning” him based solely on his performance thus far this year, then I am not communicating effectively. He generally deserves enormous credit for playing through injury (he did this on many occasions last year as well.) He’s not soft at all in that regard, in fact, he’s tough as nails. Last night I pointed out that he was battling extremely hard on the boards on both ends, and was a huge plus in that area, even keeping us in the game at points.
An I do expect for him to go on a tear sooner than later. He’s too good to be playing like this for long.
My gripes about him are long running, and are not swayed by his stretches of brilliant offensive play. Much like folks felt about Melo even at his zenith. Again, very similar players in that regard.
Its been very frustrating watching the new offense so far but the 2nd quarters vs the Celtics and Bucks definitely give a huge glimmer of hope. The ceiling of this team seems much higher than last year but reaching that ceiling consistently enough is the big question.
Reminder:
– the Knicks ORtg was 112.3 after the all star break (22nd in the league)
– the Knicks net rating was just +0.3 after the all star break (18th)
– the Knicks had a negative net rating in the playoffs and the offense was terrible with two glorious exceptions (games 4 & 6 against Boston)
What part of this do you want Brown to go back to?
We can’t get back to the Knicks offense that was able to lead the league in scoring with Josh Hart on the floor for the first two months of the season. It’s not available anymore. Hasn’t been since January.
“Its been very frustrating watching the new offense so far but the 2nd quarters vs the Celtics and Bucks definitely give a huge glimmer of hope. The ceiling of this team seems much higher than last year but reaching that ceiling consistently enough is the big question.”
I agree, BBA. But even shitty teams run off great quarters against good teams. I don’t think you can judge a team based on how they perform in isolated quarters when “everything comes together.”
The best arguments for our overall shittiness thus far are a) games missed by key players, b) other key players playing at less than 100%, and c) a new system under a new coach. I don’t think the “ceiling” has been raised one iota post-Thibs based on what we’ve seen thus far. We had a million great quarters under Thibs where it looked like the sky was the limit, even with guys hurt.
I’m not quite exactly sure how it came to pass that Karl-Anthony Towns’s role was changed so dramatically that “Karl-Anthony Towns is still adjusting to his new role” is an actual thing in the actual regular season.
His position change and role change flew way too far under the Knickland radar. I’d be shocked if that was the FO’s objective/expectation. Guaranteed they didn’t think there would be both a significant role change and an answer from the changee as late as October 21 regarding how the change was going of, “Honestly, I don’t know.”
The Knicks had virtually the same record in the first half of the season (when the offense was one of the best in the NBA) as they did in the second half (when our offense apparently cratered.) Then they came within two wins of making it to the NBA finals with that shitty offense.
I sure can’t wait until Brown’s revelation of an offense kicks in! Finals here we come!
PS Brunson was injured for many games post all-star break, and yet I recall folks saying that it actually improved the flow of the offense? Were there more sprays?
The “sprays” thing is huckster junk science. I guess it presumes that a “spray” is more likely to lead to an open three and therefore a more easily assisted upon three, but there’s no relationship between % of threes assisted, and team quality.
Last year’s leaders in assisted threes:
1. Toronto Raptors
2. Brooklyn Nets
3. Phoenix Suns
4. Golden State Warriors
5. Memphis Grizzlies
6. Miami Heat
7. Sacramento Kings
8. Chicago Bulls
OKC was 12th. Boston was 26th and that team hunted good threes via the pass arguably better than any team in association history.
Small sample size, but the Knick effective field goal percentage has also fallen off a cliff, from .556 to .488, third from last in the league.
I am not completely sold on KAT. He just continue to make head-scratching plays on both defense and offense. I find myself shaking my head at him over and over. And it isn’t just because he may be playing with a quad injury. It was last year too. I said this last night, but watching him drive to the basket is painful for the viewer. He is out of control and ends up flinging the ball. He plays much smaller than what his size is too. It is rough watching him be guarded by smaller players.
The Knicks might be better off trading him for a few solid to good pieces. Like 2-3 players. That would also help with depth. I don’t know if he is a trade piece for a very good player, b/c I don’t think a lot of very good teams would want him. But maybe a mid team would.
Brown should swap Hart & KAT’s roles in the offense. Haven’t looked for it that closely, so maybe he’s tried it.
The C is more of a facilitating hub, running handoffs from the high post and finding cutters, while wings hit 3s or attack the basket after getting the handoff or a pass off of secondary action. Which position sounds more like Hart and which sounds more like KAT?
Of course, role doesn’t explain why the 2fg% for both is sub-.370.
Again, I ask: which part of Thibs’ offense do we want Brown to bring back?
The abandonment of KAT as a screener?
The endless Josh Hart picks for Brunson? (I’m sure those would be humming right now.)
The overextension of starters so that we can get them 6-8 mins a game against backups?
Everything that worked last year came during the period when Towns was being guarded by an opposing Center. The league stopped doing us that favor and won’t be doing it again.
One thing I’m seeing in the offense is that we buy time by getting up the court sooner, but then squander multiple seconds running some sort of weave that goes nowhere. So there really isn’t any improvement is getting better shots sooner in the clock. This seems to jibe with Brunson having a higher usage despite all the passing and him being theoretically off the ball more and not bringing the ball up vs. pressure as much.
I don’t know the correlational facts between assisted 3 pt% and “team quality”, but assisted basket percentage–and assisted 2pt% and assisted 3 pt%–is one of the offensive stats most highly correlated with both raw wins and consequently SRS over a large sample. Performance on newfangled shot quality metrics (like the creatively named ‘ShotQuality’) are also highly correlated with wins and consequently SRS. That said, it is at least possible that assisted 3 percentage is a poor proxy in certain cases for actual shot quality, if the assists amount to overpassing and passing up a better shot for a worse one. But that this is the case writ large has to be shown, not assumed, and it seems like the burden of proof is on those who think that assisted three percentage is not correlated with wins to prove it.
If “team quality” means something other than wins, it should be defined, because everyone knows–player, coach, and egghead statistician alike–that, ceteris paribus, assisted baskets are more conducive to generating wins than unassisted baskets. We should be getting the sprays up!
I don’t want to go out on a limb but I’m started to get the sense that firing the most successfuly Knicks coach in a quarter-century, largely because he just didn’t coach “the right way,” might be turning out to be a mistake.
WHO COULD HAVE EVER PREDICTED SUCH A THING?!?!?!?
Z-Man, I like what you said about Brown and tinker around the edges versus a complete overhaul.
I also feel we don’t need to aim for such high pace. I don’t believe every team needs to aim to play so fast and launch endless threes. I know we have to increase our 3’s compared to last year, but I think at some point there needs to be a middle ground. You can win in the NBA playing different styles. I don’t think our squad is made to play like we currently are. I do realize it is an adjustment period though.
Figuring out the weave is part of the offense. It’s one of multiple actions Brown runs during a possession. Having the opportunity to run multiple actions is better than running a single action, and a benefit of getting the ball up earlier. Thibs would frequently run a SG for a fake handoff (always a fake) to waste extra time anyways.
A lot of the problems with the offense are just injured players and players missing shots. Other issues like overreliance on the system instead of attacking, OG being a bit too aggressive shooting 3s, and some bad passing TOs will sort themselves out.
That’s part of it and the point I was making all last year when people said we needed the peak Sun’s version. The Sun’s version may look much better on some AIO models because he was so efficient, but he’s a better player now (and last year) in terms of skills and should be doing more for us.
The idea was to was to find the balance between how much we needed him to score as 3rd option and his efficiency and to improve his 3 point shot from last year where the very slow start was due to experimentation.
Things like assists and rebounds are also partly role.
This year he’s handling the ball a little more and looking to make plays more. Brunson is handling less. So Mikal’s assists are up and Brunson’s are down a little. That’s Brown changing their roles a bit.
These models are kind of silly because they don’t take coach, system, role, teammates and short term impacts into account.
In the mean time, I doubt he’s going to keep shooting this well from 3. Stil, he looks WAY more comfortable and confidenr this year.
The main difference between Melo and Towns or even Melo and Randle despite all being less than ideal defensive players and more prone to brain fart plays is that Towns is an extremely efficient scorer. That adds a lot of value. He’s not a two way star though, so you have to put together lineups that make sense with him because he’s a major piece.
We’ve discussed the Towns/Brunson combo to death.
Personally, I think Towns is just trying to be a “warrior Knick” playing through injuries while Mitch is out, but what we really need is to get him healthy and with the new program. He should probably take a 2-3 games off.
A gentle reminder….
2024-2025 Knicks record first 10 games – 5-5 (won 51 games)
2023-2024 record first 10 games – 5-5 (won 50 games)
2022-2023 record first 10 games – 5-5 (won 47 games)
Alecto, I don’t believe that “sprays” and “assisted 3’s” are synonymous, and good looks from 3, whether catch-and-shoot or player going under screens or off misses and offensive rebounds that are kicked out. To me, there is no marginal value between an assisted 3 that came from a pass out of the paint by a driver and an assisted 3 generated in a hockey “around the horn” assist or an assisted 3 out of a pass off a high PnR double or as a player crosses the timeline. There are lots of ways to “tilt” the defense, and the less predictable, the better. At the end of the day, running an offense that generates lots of quality looks from 3 is an important goal, but shouldn’t be the only, or even the primary goal.
“Again, I ask: which part of Thibs’ offense do we want Brown to bring back?
The abandonment of KAT as a screener?
The endless Josh Hart picks for Brunson? (I’m sure those would be humming right now.)
The overextension of starters so that we can get them 6-8 mins a game against backups?
Everything that worked last year came during the period when Towns was being guarded by an opposing Center. The league stopped doing us that favor and won’t be doing it again.”
Right, and after that, nothing worked, and as a result we put up a much worse record and made an early exit from the playoffs. Oh wait…
Seriously, it’s fair to say that Brown should run more actions with Brunson and KAT in PnR, that Deuce should play with the starters more and Hart should play with them less, that the starters should be rested more and more strategically, that Brunson should not be bringing the ball up against intense pressure from wings, that the team, and KAT specifically, should take more 3’s, that the deep bench should be played more so as to be more ready when they are needed…. These changes are all in the realm of “tinkering” with what Thibs’ team did well last year, not overhauling.
In other words, you don’t need radically changed roles or a radically changed offense to infuse these principles.
If anything, the roles on defense are where radical changes were needed, especially with KAT (less drop) and Bridges (less POA), and so far, so good.
So was the skill last year throwing the ball out of bounds 4 times a game? Because that’s basically what his extra usage amounted to last year compared to this year.
He’s scoring slightly more points this year. There’s no advantage to the extra usage if they’re all just misses.
disclaimer its from ai:
In basketball, “spray” can mean passing the ball out to a shooter, especially from driving into the paint, to create an open shot. It can also be used as slang for a very bad shot, similar to “spray” as in something that misses its intended target.
Thanks ai, but we already know the definition. As Z-Man said better than I could, there’s no reason to hunt “spray” passes to three point shooters, as opposed to any other kind of action to three point shooters.
Happy to see data to the contrary. Doubt it exists.
Mitch – injured.
Deuce – unavailable
Hart – playing but clearly injured
KAT – playing but clearly injured
Knickerblogger: Why did we lose?
“Stick to politics, MBunge” is not a sentence I thought I’d write, yet here I am.
It’s been 4 games, we have major health problems, and we’re 2-2. Last year we started with full health except for Mitch, we used a 7.5 man playoff rotation from the get go, and were 6-6. And Thibs never came under this level of scrutiny.
All I see here is a small group of resentful Thibs’ acolytes coming up with ridiculous arguments every day to shit on a new coach prematurely. They want to hold Mike Brown in week 1 to the same standard folks held Thibs to in the playoffs of his 5th year.
The stupidity of this is matched only by how predictable it was.
BECAUSE WE GOT RID OF THIBS!
In other news, Area Man With No Ability to Admit He Was Wrong About Anything Has Written a Self Serving Book.
Boy, I cannot wait to never read Phil’s book! Thanks for the tip, Noble!
“Spray threes” seems like a shorthand for “threes coming off a potential assist from a penetrator.” Given that there is a strong correlation between assist rate, team 3PT%, and offensive success, I don’t see why it’s controversial to try to generate this kind of shot.
That there wasn’t much of correlation between % of 3PM assisted and offensive success tells you nothing. The Raptors were indeed 1st in this category, but were 29th in 3PAr. Obviously, assisting on a lot of your 3PA will not do wonders for you if you don’t have many 3PA.
Objecting to this as a goal is bizarre.
The worry with Brown isn’t the record or the poor underlying numbers in an extremely small sample size; it’s that he saw fit to massively change the role of the all-NBA player he inherited without getting anything remotely like buy in from the player.
For now, i’m on my usual “let’s wait 20 games before saying bold things” watch. But yeah, there’s some concerning stuff that probably won’t go away before game 20.
All I know is that Brown is playing guys significant minutes that wouldn’t have sniffed the court under Thibs (Kolek e.g.) Sure in the short run we might lose some games because Brunson sat an extra five minutes, but in the long run playing 11 guys makes a lot more sense than running the starters into the ground to grind out a couple of extra wins.
And as I said in a prior post, when the inevitable injury happens to a starter, the guys who have been getting minutes off the bench will be ready to step in.
I gotta be better about post-game threads. The losses just piss me off so much that I forget, and it’s suddenly the next morning.
My apologies! I’ll be sure to do a post-game thread even if they lose on Friday.
The only long-term concerns I have at the moment are Hart’s ability to shoot with a splint on his fingers, Mitch’s injury management limbo, and Yabu looking like a Fred Flintstone Yabu Dabba Doo-doo.
In last nights thread we had Brunson out for a month or two.
Yeah, that was pretty funny. It was like Lazarus had just come back.
ugh, sure feels like we are in the .500 club again…who knows if we’ll win or lose any game we play…
We’ll win… it’s Friday night Knicks™ ! 😉
I don’t know if arguing about firing coaches and dumping on players after 4 games with 5 of the top 8 players out or compromised is the silliest thing I have ever read, but it is close.
He played against or coached with or against virtually every semi modern top player in the entire history of the game excepting Cousy and Bob Pettit. He might have some interesting takes or historical stories.
He is also completely lacking in self-awareness, Bob, and seems to have pinned all his failures in New York on Melo. Hard goddamn pass. If I want to hear stories about the various teams he played for, coached, or served as an executive of, there are plenty of reading options I’d find more reliable and entertaining.
Phil was the one fucking dumb enough to give Melo a megamax contract, and Melo actually played pretty well by his own standards in some of those years. But since he didn’t magically turn into a first team all NBA player because of the hallowed triangle offense, now the whole thing was Melo’s fault.
Fuck Phil’s dumb narcissist ass. Was it Melo’s idea to give out that contract to Joakim Noah too?
I’ll be happy to shower praise on Mike Brown the second he earns it. He didn’t earn it in any other long-term coaching gig he had before getting here. He rode on the coattails of the GOAT, then did nothing with the Lakers, then had very short-lived success taking over a decent but undercoached team in dysfunctional Sacto before losing the team and then being run out of town. He’s definitely not a better coach than Thibs based on accomplishment, and there’s a reasonable chance that he’s worse in enough regards to make it a wash. But hey, he says the right things and smiles a lot, so there’s that!
I’m giving him the grace period he deserves, but no more than that. He’s done nothing prior to coming here to deserve it. When I see positive results that can be directly attributed to his coaching, I will be happy to sing his praises, but not before. Folks are certainly free to feel otherwise.
BTW, a point being left out of this conversation is the premature assumption that the East is not as dead as folks have made it out to be. Beyond Cleveland, Orlando and Detroit:
-Milwaukee has Giannis playing like an MVP and an actually decent supporting cast.
-Miami has Spo and some nice pieces. Losing Rozier is addition by subtraction. No Jimmy drama. Norman Powell is very good.
-Indiana might be the most underrated of all, they are well coached and have lots of fun players. Mathurin is getting better. When they get healthy (not including Hali), they will be a headache for any team they play.
Other teams have improved: Chicago, Toronto, Washington, perhaps even Charlotte when they get healthy.
So we are not going to have many cakewalk games in the East, especially with our injury situation. Oddly, he team that seems the most likely to be easy for us to beat is the Celtics. Their bigs are terrible, and both Prichard and Hauser are better suited to be bench players. I wouldn’t be surprised at all if they went into full tank mode at some point.
“All I see here is a small group of resentful Thibs’ acolytes coming up with ridiculous arguments every day to shit on a new coach prematurely. They want to hold Mike Brown in week 1 to the same standard folks held Thibs to in the playoffs of his 5th year.”
Not the least bit surprising that this is “all you see.”
Despite being a Thibs supporter from day 1 i found his firing inevitable and turned the coach page wo looking back.
Brown convinced me about fast and smart modern bball in the first 2 games but disappointed me with his unsuccessful execution of the “next man up” condition.
My concern is mainly about Brown having the ability to make this roster believe in him and focus on teamball instead of chasing stats and playing soulless basketball while waiting to get paid…
And you know that before he writes the book? It must be nice to have ESP.
Celtics tanking in a loaded draft at the top isn’t all that bad. Silver will grant them with a nice pick
Phil isn’t likable. He had a great coaching career but he’s an insufferable self-serving blowhard. I wouldn’t be interested in reading Michael Jordan’s memoir either, for the same reasons.
It’s more that he’s a self-serving narcissist with multiple axes to grind and zero objectivity. A truly questionable narrator, and it’s tiresome to read something where most of what you see you have to take with various grains of salt. Or the entire shaker.
It almost goes without saying that I hate the Celtics, but it’s making me feel just a little warm and fuzzy that they’re spanking Cleveland’s butt at the moment.
Pretty sure it’s not the spanking part.
https://www.facebook.com/reel/826544599781424
I find it remarkably petty that Phil would even take the time to slight Melo in such a book.
Not to mention this passage…
…reads to me like someone knowing what button to push to get his $20M without working.
I left out Philly as a team to be reckoned with…
Phil didn’t get fired because he put a product on the court that was absolute hot trash. Oh no. It was because the media was mean to him and Dolan couldn’t bear to see it.
Bad decision by Teo there…
FWIW every team that the Knicks have played so far, other than the C’s (who have a 10 pt. lead on the Cavs in the 4th), are off to a good start. Which will continue to be me excuse if we lose against the Bulls on Friday.
Maybe I was a bit too hard on the Celts…
I don’t get how Cleveland is losing, they have Larry Nance Jr.!
I thought the Magic were supposed to be some sort of defensive juggernaut?
Gave up 135 points to the Pistons tonight and in the prior game 136 points to Philly
It’s way early but Orlando is my candidate for most overrated Eastern Conference team
other than maybe you know…….us
Not Bad!
I may be pulling a donnie this season and jump on the spurs bandwagon…
Wemby is 21 years old.
None of Wilt’s records are safe.
Austin Reaves as a 1st option isn’t bad at all
You think that Wemby’s body is holding up for 1045 games?
Reaves for the win wow
lakers are a lot more fun to watch without lebron or luka…
Reaves is def going to get a huge pay day
I’ve always said here that I prefer long, competitive series to easy victories. So I don’t mind the Dodgers having to scratch and claw. The problem is, they’re not scratching and they’re doing even less clawing. It’s now down to Yamamoto on friday and the kitchen sink on saturday. Kitchen sink could be enormously entertaining, so definitely hoping for it.
I like yamamoto a bunch, in a game filled with giant sized folks, particularly pitchers these days – there’s yamamoto up on the mound dealing at 5’10” 180lbs or so…
rooting for the jays of course, o’ canada…
I am in Europe this week and didn’t watch the two losses, but the Knicks going 28-94 from deep seems more meaningful than tactical issues? We probably need to get used to getting games like this now that they are shooting a good amount of 3s.
“None of Wilt’s records are safe.”
wilts record of 100 points in a game is very very very safe