I don’t say that from experience with baseball. I say it from decades of horse racing and sometimes even basketball. There are times I look at the past performances of the horses/teams and the data is telling me something that disagrees with my gut based on decades of experience.

If I kept stats on that alone, I’d bet my gut is right a bit more often.

The problem is, the logical part you wants a hard reason (like data) for believing something. But our minds can process information and learn things from decades of experience without being able to provide the data to support it or even fully understand it. It comes out as a feeling. To be sure, it IS based on data you brain has processed silently over many years. We just don’t have access to it.

I suspect that some of things being done these days in baseball are wrong. They are based on “broad data that lacks specificity about a very unique situation that our guts process better”.

I didn’t think yesterday was a case of “stats have gone too far”. Just an instance of dumb people using stats incorrectly.

One the one hand, you had Ahmed Rosario’s 10 PAs vs Crochet.

On the other hand, you had Ahmed Rosario other 4,000 PAs since 2017.

Only a stupid organization would have determined that batting him 5th last night was the right move.

apparently the phoenix suns are a rival for us now

As for Boone, I haven’t watched enough to comment on the micro decisions. But on the macro…

When you have a bad manager, bad defense, a leaky bullpen, and multiple easy outs throughout the lineup… and you’ve had these problems consistently for six years… you have to have some serious blinders on to defend Brian Cashman.

Everyone in America saw what a clown Boone is in the World Series last year. If you’re dumb enought to bring that guy back to do it again, every mistake he makes is on you.

Sometimes an ace pitcher just beats you and there’s not a whole lot you can do about it. Crochet is a 6 WAR pitcher and he was at the top of his game. To be honest he probably chews up Jazz Chisholm last night the same way he was chewing up everybody else.

They’ll probably score like eight runs a game against Boston’s other scrub starters.

Pulling a pitcher who was dealing only to watch a reliever cough up a lead will always lead to a manager being bludgeoned. So it goes, that’s why they get paid a lot, but I personally thought taking Fried out before a third time through the lineup was totally fine. A lot of people have been throwing around Weaver’s high ERA in September, but that’s a silly use of a noisy stat (as it relates to RPs anyway). His last six appearances were scoreless!

Boone’s lineup and PH decisions were indefensibly incoherent, though. Rosario does have a good track record against lefties, so fair enough when it comes to getting him in the lineup IMO. But there were multiple opportunities to get Rice, who doesn’t have a super extreme platoon split, a god damn AB.

I personally would’ve started him over Goldschmidt, if we must operate under the assumption him catching was a no go from the jump. But there was also Wells’ AB in the bottom of the 8th against Crochet, and then even more glaringly, Grisham’s AB with the bases loaded in the bottom of the 9th.

So after moving heaven and earth to accommodate platoons, you let the single highest leverage AB of the game go to a guy staring down Chapman with an 88 wRC+ against lefties?

I was shocked the Yankees had no righty on the bench to PH for either Wells or Grisham in those two spots. Instead of putting all of them in your starting lineup, play your best players and keep one on the bench for a high leverage AB.

But again…. Boone may fuck up the in game decisions all by himself but the lineup choices are organizational. His willingness to accept “suggestions” is the whole reason he’s here.

I honestly believe if in 2018 Yankees would’ve hired Cora instead of Boone they’d have won a World Series already if not multiple.

This is probably pretty obvious, but benching Chisolm and Rice yesterday was not some sort of “analytics gone too far” shit. It was standard old-school 1940’s style platooning. It was crudely implemented and didn’t really pan out, but this was not some sort of New Age Fangraphs kind of strategy. This was Casey Stengel done poorly.

Jazz being benched was the odd move because its not something they did during the regular season. Goldy has started at 1B against LHP the entire season and despite struggling over past couple of months overall he had great numbers vs LHP.

Rosario after being acquired routinely started vs LHP but at 3B, believe he only started twice at 2B. But they didn’t want him playing 3B with Fried on the mound cause he produces a ton of groundballs to 3B. I still would’ve preferred Rosario at 3B and Jazz as usual at 2B.

Taking Fried out I didn’t agree with it at the time as my texts to my brother would prove but it was understandable. Problem is doesn’t matter what we believe was the right or wrong move, it comes down to in the postseason for the past 7 years whatever moves Boone goes with regardless of his logic always backfires.

Pulling a pitcher who was dealing only to watch a reliever cough up a lead will always lead to a manager being bludgeoned. So it goes, that’s why they get paid a lot, but I personally thought taking Fried out before a third time through the lineup was totally fine. A lot of people have been throwing around Weaver’s high ERA in September, but that’s a silly use of a noisy stat (as it relates to RPs anyway). His last six appearances were scoreless!

I think this is wrong reasoning on so many levels. Fried was fucking dealing last night. There was exactly ONE hard hit ball (exit velocity>95) off him the entire game. The notion that your 200M dollar ace can’t go through a line up multiple times is miss applying stats. He went through the line up a third time for the first 7 batters, but he somehow couldn’t have pitched to the 8 and 9 hitters? C’mon, that doesn’t make any sense.

Weaver pitched to a 4.40 ERA the second half after having a strong first half. That’s not noise or variance. He did pitch 6 scoreless appearances (5 vs Bal and ChiSox) the last 10 days but his previous 6 appearances he gave up 10 Earned runs in 3&2/3rds.

As former great U Texas football coach Darrell Royal used to say, “When you go to the big dance, you gotta dance with who brung ya!”

Cora decided he was going to push his ace as long as he could and then go to his closer in a life or death game. He wasn’t using his middle relief unless it was absolutely necessary. Boone managed like it was game 43 in May.

Didn’t they pull Fried because his velocity was falling in the final inning?

I don’t know, seems like a coin flip of a game. It was strange to see Chapman facing two lefties with the bases loaded, but that’s baseball….

I don’t know how many more years Bochy has in him…and it seems like now that Melvin is out…that he is going back to SF…but if the Yankees could get him for a few years…they should do it and send Boone and his sunflower seeds/bubble gum out to pasture…at least you know with Bochy in the dugout….nobody is going to out manage him..

Weaver pitched to a 4.40 ERA the second half after having a strong first half. That’s not noise or variance.

Yes it is. Both his FIP and his xFIP went down in the second half, as his K/9 went up by over a full strikeout per inning. His ERA was substantially worse largely because of a single disastrous, 0.1 IP/5 ER appearance on September 15. Take that out and his second half ERA is 2.97.

Crochet’s 117th pitch was 100.2 MPH. Tied for his fastest pitch of the season. Just sheer filth from a left handed starter.

Gotta just tip your cap to that. That’s incredible.

This thread is making my case perfectly.

There’s a wide range of opinions here all using some stats to back them up.

The problem is that each situation is unqiue and most stats measure broader similar circumstances. They wind up getting misused or not measuring the actual probabilities in that unique situation.

I have no clue what the Yankees should have done last night. It may have been the correct decsion. I just know that they used stats that were probably not fully applicable to that pitcher, against that team, in the playoffs, on that night, given how strong he was looking at the time, the long term data, the long term impacts etc..

Sometimes you have to use your gut to make a close decision.

I don’t have a very good baseball gut, but my imperfect gut was screaming to not take that pitcher out yet. Once they did, my gut was screaming, take a price and bet on Boston.

Too bummed to talk about the Yankees.

Edwards says he’s hearing that we want to keep both Brogdon and Shamet, and that there’s no value around the league for Kolek or Huk, which is why Dadiet is the likely one to go. But also said Dadiet had a good enough summer that it’s making it harder on the FO to move him.

Fried’s velo was down over 3 MPH in the sixth. Was throwing 96 in the 5th, 93 in the sixth.

His ERA was substantially worse largely because of a single disastrous, 0.1 IP/5 ER appearance on September 15. Take that out and his second half ERA is 2.97.

Untrue. He didn’t have a single disasterous outing on 9/15. He had a second disasterous outing on 9/10 where he gave up 3 runs on 3 hits in 1/3rd inning. And these weren’t in some sort of vacuum. He gave up 2 runs and 6 hits over his previous 3 outings (2 1/3 innings) to the two debacles.

Bottom line, the way Fried was dealing the EV of letting him pitch the the 8 and 9 hitters was far greated than the EV of the 2025 verson of Luke Weaver.

Boone/Cashman had it all scripted out by the way he discussed it with Fried after the 6th. He asked Fried, “Are you good for one more guy.” not, “How much farther do you think you can go?” He knew he was going to Weaver there no matter how Fried pitched to Duran. That’s the mistake. It’s not like when Torre had a formula to go to Mariano in the 7th and 8th and Wettland in the 9th.

This is a 2 win series. If you don’t win 2 games of three season over. Fried can’t pitch in games 2 or 3, so why not empty the tank with a one run lead and your best pitcher who hasn’t even given up a hard hit ball in innings?

I guarantee if it was Cole pitching Boone would’ve given him a longer leash and rightfully so, Fried last night deserved the same.

Who is Donovan Williams?

Fried’s velo was down over 3 MPH in the sixth. Was throwing 96 in the 5th, 93 in the sixth.

???????

The only 4 seam fastball he threw in the 6th inning (the 8th pitch to Navarez) was at 96.

He struck Gonzalez out with all off speed stuff and got Eaton to GIDP with a 93 cutter.

https://www.mlb.com/news/max-fried-pitches-scoreless-ball-in-yankees-game-1-loss

I think with no runners on and the 8/9 hitters coming up they could have left him in. One of those scrubs gets on base, then pull him. Even with the velo dip, he was still getting guys out.

I still don’t agree with the logic of trading Dadiet. The only thing that would make it make sense is if he seemed to stall in his development, or if Diawara and Evbuomwan have progressed so well that they have made Dadiet expendable.

If it happens, whatever, because at the end of the day it’s not like Dadiet will make much of a difference this year and it is very much a win-now situation. But it’s not the way I would go.

Untrue. He didn’t have a single disasterous outing on 9/15. He had a second disasterous outing on 9/10 where he gave up 3 runs on 3 hits in 1/3rd inning. And these weren’t in some sort of vacuum. He gave up 2 runs and 6 hits over his previous 3 outings (2 1/3 innings) to the two debacles.

What did I say that was “untrue?”

donovan williams is out of unlv and has spent time with spurs hawks nugs also played in china and sister kelsey used to play in wnba do we have to do everything for you

Switching gears for a minute…

I have an idea.

Who here would be interested in a pool for two Knicks season tickets?

I’m going to be working out of 1 Penn for the rest of the calendar year, right across the street from MSG. But I’m going back to Florida from January through May, so I could only use the beginning of the season. I was thinking if we could muster a crew together, we could split up the rest of the year and share the postseason rights.

donovan williams has also averaged 36 points and 18 rebounds per 36 from the sf position in his nba regular season experience hes also had stints with warriors and nets and is likely going to be an exhibit 10

now this is how to get a headline in your sport:

Napheesa Collier on WNBA: ‘We have the worst leadership in the world’ Minnesota Lynx’s Napheesa Collier blasts the WNBA officiating and leadership.

in the world…the worst…ha, that’s funny…

dodgers could use big games from maxmun and tommy edman tonite

Broaden in ny post today

“It’s a different role for me, man. The first time I took a role like this is when I went to Boston. I played the sixth man role. It’s just about embracing it,” he said. “I’m coming to a team here that is one step away from the Finals. And all they need is a little bit more. They made a coaching change, they’ve made some changes, they brought some guys in. But the core is the same. They just need a little bit more support. So me, I plan on being one of the pieces to support them.”

Last time (and only time) I bought season tickets it did not end well for me.

Thank you, Doogle.

RIP Jane Goodall. I had the extraordinary good fortune to spend a short period of time with her once. As one of my colleagues just wrote me, “She personified goodness.” The world has lost an important role model for us all.

Grimes takes the qualifying offer. So two of the four RFAs took cheap-ish deals, and two bet on themselves with the qualifying offer.

I think that’s a smart play by Grimes. Obviously you risk a lot, though, if you get seriously injured.

But if he can play well at all like he did to end last season, he’s probably due for a really good pay day next season.

Right now we have a ten man rotation plus Kolek and Dadiet. If we sign Brogdon it is either as the 10th (replacing Hukporti or Clarkson) or 11th man. Shamet would be the 12th man and would be out of the rotation.

I do not see how Shamet will make a difference in our season over the young guys. Especially considering they could improve and be better than Shamet not only in the future but potentially this year.

It would be one thing if one of Shamet or Brogdon could play the four since we are a bit short on size but they cannot.

I would not move either of our young guys to make room. If we have an injury bug we can move one of the young guys then or move one of them closer to the trade deadline to pick up a vet off the waiver wire. But no need to move them now. Better to just develop them and then cross the bridge of trading them if we have to. I don’t think there is a long line of teams looking to sign Shamet so that’s probably not even much of a concern.

Disagree about Shamet. He’s a proven NBA bench rotation player who shoots 3’s at a very high percentage and is not a sieve on defense. Kolek and Dadiet are nowhere near that level (yet). They could MAYBE get there but Shamet played significant minutes in the conference finals and did just fine. That’s pretty damn good for the 11th/12th guy in your rotation.

A bunch of tall guys in the desert. 🧡💙

https://x.com/nyknicks/status/1973125682872922425

I’d pay good money to see Mitchell Robinson ride a camel. Would feel sorry for the camel though.

The Sixers were offering Grimes so little (4 years, $40M) that it made no sense for him to do anything else.

Seems like Masai was the only guy who didn’t get the memo about the new CBA; IQ’s probably the last non-elite RFA to get paid.

This is probably pretty obvious, but benching Chisolm and Rice yesterday was not some sort of “analytics gone too far” shit. It was standard old-school 1940’s style platooning

Jazz wasn’t platooned a single time in his Yankee tenure to date. It was precisely analytics gone awry.

Right now we have a ten man rotation plus Kolek and Dadiet. If we sign Brogdon it is either as the 10th (replacing Hukporti or Clarkson) or 11th man. Shamet would be the 12th man and would be out of the rotation.

Brown has indicated he prefers to run a 10 man rotation.

If we add Brogdon, that’s exactly 10 rotation level players. (Hukporti is not a proven player).

If we add Shamet, it gives us exactly 1 NBA rotation player as injury insurance.

So the way for Shamet to impact the season is for 1 of Brogdon or Mitch to get injured.

“RIP Jane Goodall. I had the extraordinary good fortune to spend a short period of time with her once. As one of my colleagues just wrote me, “She personified goodness.” The world has lost an important role model for us all.”

What a great privilege, Raven. I’m glad Jane Goodall lived a long, enlightned, and uniquely meaningful life. Her legacy will live forever.

I agree that Shamet is a more reliable emergency rotation player than any of the kids as we currently know them, but there is zero “upside” to him, it’s nice to have a couple of young players to dream on and to risk throwing into the fire. I guess that if Dadiet goes, we will still have Diawara. Kolek, and the 2-way guys (I don’t think we have to dream on Huk, he’s already at worst a cromulent emergency big.

It’s not analytics gone awry, Bob, bc analytics don’t actually support the decision to bench a vastly superior player over an extremely small sample of PAs.

It was just someone being an idiot.

It was 1940’s “analytics.” Basic righty/lefty advantage. He went for the platoon advantage. How is that “analytics?” You don’t need a room full of nerds on computers to know that the platoon advantage exists in baseball.

He probably went with Rosario because Rosario was 6 for 9 against Crochet. ALSO not analytics. That’s a guy playing a hunch based on a tiny sample size.

Perhaps Ben Rice should get to pick up a bat in important games.

If there’s a Game 3 Boston most likely will do a bullpen game using one of their young lefties to start, if Goldy is gonna start at 1B and leadoff then Rice has to be the Catcher.

One thing about Dadiet is that he has a $2.98M team option next season that needs to be exercised by 10/31/25. Not sure if that means anything but maybe it does.

Pure Stengelese platooning would be if Jazz and Rosario were roughly equal hitters and Boone went righty versus lefty.

No, this was more. This was one of those deals where someone finds an “underlying” number and concludes that the number outweighs the “Boomer silliness” of thinking that Jazz Chisholm is a better hitter than Amed Rosario, just because he obviously is.

“Oh, there go those unscientific retrograde idiots, thinking Jazz Chisholm is a better hitter than Amed Rosario just because he’s better in every hitting number known to baseball-kind. We must dig deeper.”

Digging for a number that purportedly shows the “true reality” is the very essence of “analytics.”

Not batting Rice for Wells in the 9th last night was one of the lamest decisions you’ll ever see. They intentionally put Escarra, a third catcher, on the postseason roster for the sole purpose of being able to pinch hit for their catcher and then not have an injury to the second catcher leave them high and dry, sans catcher. They literally gamed out the postseason roster for that moment.

Yankees lead MLB in walks and hardly ever chase yet in these 2 games every fucking time their hitters get to 3 ball counts they’re chasing and swinging at ball 4.

Rodon’s a bum.

Digging for a number that purportedly shows the “true reality” is the very essence of “analytics.”

The big number they dug so deep for was 6 for 9. Really took a lot of digging! Must have brought out the big computer the size of a refrigerator for that one.

Wonder if Boone will let Rodon go more than 102 pitches. It’s possible.

Rodon’s a bum.

This aged well.

Rodon is too emo for high stakes playoff games.

Gonna need a serious bullpen save from this point with Whitlock and Chapman on the other side.

Cruz is cool, though.

That was some intense fierce face that Cruz made. Damn this is a stressful game for Yankees fans.

Seems like the move here would be to counter Whitlock & Chapman with Schlittler or Warren and let them pitch til the game’s over. If Boone lets it be a battle of bullpens Cora’s going to have an extreme advantage for the most critical 3 innings of the season.

Or you can just beat Whitlock with the bottom of the order 🤷🏻‍♂️

Cora rendered Whitlock useless for tomorrow.

I love when a Red Sox player shits the bed!

(I mean it’s only one run but still, it’s big bad scary Garrett Whitlock ooohhh)

Cora rendered Whitlock useless for tomorrow.

I think he knows if it gets to tomorrow he’s fucked.

Yankees won the battle of the bullpens…

dodgers could use big games from maxmun and tommy edman tonite

A big game cheering from the bench can still be helpful.

Any chance we can bring Grimes back? Always liked the kid.

2 for 1 deal that opens roster spot for Brogdon & Shamet would be interesting. Something like Dadier + Kolek + 2nd for the a 1yr rental on the kid would be an interesting all in type move.

who is dadier

“who is dadier”

what a loser…

While I have never called for a poster to be banned, in your case, since you were already banned for the same behaviors you are now (predictably) reverting to, I would ask for the moderators to consider this as a parole violation and either warn you to cease and desist or reinstate your banishment. Your petty grammar schtick is a pox on this site, and with play officially starting tomorrow, it would be great is we didn’t have threads polluted with it. Or alternatively, you could just apologize and move on.

This is interesting…Hart is with starting lineup and Yabu guesses JB is going left and cuts him off nicely…good feet for a guy his size.

https://x.com/TheStrickland/status/1973430238823719113

Director, I don’t know if we can assume it’s a starting lineup…it might be just a variation that just happened to be captured in a clip.

Essentially I mean that we shouldn’t read anything into these first games….maybe preseason games 4 and 5 might be more telling, but this seems just like the experimentation phase.

I’m trying to think of the last time two green rookies faced off in an elimination game in the playoffs. The Sox better be ready for a steady diet of high 99 mph four seamers and 97 mph high cutters.

pretty sure the yanks are going to win this series dodgies the only ones to take both

So let me get this right…. Ben Rice has 3 HRs in 3 days, but only 2gp because we decided to bench him the middle day?

I’m not sure which is more fun, Yankees fans when they lose or Yankees fans when they win.

I think it’s when they lose, but I’m glad for you guys anyway.

theyre more fun when they win im a mets fan

If Sasaki’s 9th inning today turns into a recurring thing, this is gonna be a short post-season for everybody else.

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