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Knicks Morning News (2025.05.12)

  • What channel is Knicks vs. Celtics on today? Time, TV schedule, live stream to watch Game 4 of NBA Playoffs series – sportingnews.com
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  • Celtics vs. Knicks Prediction, Odds and Best NBA Prop Bets for Playoffs Game 4 – Sports Illustrated
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  • Boston Celtics vs. New York Knicks: live game updates, stats, play-by-play – Yahoo Sports
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  • Offensive – Substack
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  • Knicks’ Mitchell Robinson Calls Out Harsh Fan Criticism After Celtics Loss – MSN
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  • Celtics vs. Knicks prediction: Odds, betting advice, player prop bets for Game 4 on Monday May 12 – sportingnews.com
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  • Celtics 115-93 Knicks (11 May, 2025) Final Score – ESPN
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  • Knicks, Celtics Getting Healthier For Game 4 – Sports Illustrated
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  • 88 replies on “Knicks Morning News (2025.05.12)”

    Really curious to watch tonight’s game.
    If the two teams were playing for their lives I’d bet that we’d had been down 4-0 wo much resistance.
    In modern nba where HUGE money is all over the league in a worldwide spectrum via watching and betting i’m waiting for almost Anything to Happen.
    Let’s wait and see!

    If the two teams were playing for their lives I’d bet that we’d had been down 4-0 wo much resistance.

    That sure doesn’t speak well of Boston, then, though, right?

    If they’re weak-minded enough to have lost Games 1 and 2, why not two more?

    That sure doesn’t speak well of Boston, then, though, right?

    Of Boston, of the League and of Modern HEAVY MONEY INVOLVED sports world.

    It would be nice if the Knicks had their draft picks right about now.

    Going to the game tonight, and can’t say I’m brimming with confidence. In fact it’s probably the Celtics who are, as they know they’ve dominated us in 10 out of 12 quarters.

    That’s why a fast start is so important tonight, if they start bombing away and go up 30-15 or something, oh boy, it could get ugly in a hurry.

    Was at the game and otherwise busy this weekend so didn’t fully keep up with all the threads, but I’m sure it was noted that our lack of any discernible offensive scheme in game 3, and truly the entire playoffs to this point, was, and is, palpable.

    After 91 games I couldn’t tell you what the primary goal of our offense is besides “let Brunson cook most of the time, let other guys cook the remainder of the time, and let Josh Hart pick up the scraps.”

    Our 3PAr is 15/16th among playoff teams (we eke out the Rockets by .007) and our team TS% is 14th. These are not unrelated things obviously. I’m aware there’s not a 1:1 correlation and high 3PAr teams can have bad offenses, and vice-versa, but our roster’s strengths are clearly geared towards juicing overall efficiency via 3PA, because we don’t have guys who are high-volume demons at the rim and we have a low FTr.

    To state the obvious, this just does not pencil out. You can’t forego a lot of 3s, not generate many FTAs, not be a stellar offensive rebounding team, and expect to have a championship caliber offense.

    Something’s gotta change or we’re probably looking at a 6 game series that is more of a spiritual sweep.

    It would be nice if the Knicks had their draft picks right about now.

    It’s going to be interesting to see what the Bucks get for Giannis and whether they choose to blow everything up (which they clearly should do) or try to remain competitive. I don’t think they can get much for Lillard given his age, injury and expected time to return.

    We can cry a little about going all in for Bridges with Giannis now available, but a lot of people were pushing to make a move soon and not wait around for the perfect pitch and give away years for this core, especially with the new CBA. Even if we had all those picks though, there’s still no guarantee he’d come to NY.

    If they’re weak-minded enough to have lost Games 1 and 2, why not two more?

    I think they’re especially vulnerable in a game 7. They could make that Rockets team look like sharpshooters if their sphincters get tight.

    Not to mention the “bounce effect” and the probability that their banged up guys get more banged up on the way.

    I am not optimistic that we’ll fix the offense, but I am optimistic we can win this series with our broken one.

    It would be nice for once to get a big lead early and put the presure on them to try to come back.

    The problem for any team trying to trade for Giannis is matching his salary.

    it is a very odd circumstance to be in but it sre seems like tonite is a must win for us and not for boston if we go back to boston up 3-1 most will believe we can finish it up but if we go back 2-2 most will assume that we will lose at this very moment i could not disagree with those feelings

    After game 3, I wrote here that it seemed like the Knicks simply didn’t have the same energy as in games 1 and 2, didn’t get to the Celtics’ shooters fast enough, and for once they should follow Thibs’ “play harder” cure-all.

    Well, this was stupid. Fred Katz in the Athletic explains what actually happened, and confused the Knicks on the pick-and roll. A couple of excerpts:

    The Knicks understood how to guard this during the two wins in Boston, where New York engineered a more aggressive pick-and-roll strategy than it used during the regular season. But unbeknownst until Game 3, the Knicks left their impressive verve in Massachusetts. And on this possession, the man who gets the credit for flattening them is Holiday, who didn’t score, assist or even set a screen.

    Instead, he scrambled the Knicks’ brains.

    Once Tatum dribbled around Horford, the Knicks found trouble.

    OG Anunoby began the possession on Tatum, per usual. But after he made contact with Horford, the Knicks were doomed. Towns was supposed to come up to the level of the screen. If Anunoby could not recover to his man in time, Towns should have switched, picking up Tatum. But with Holiday nearing him, the Knicks center sagged back too far, giving Tatum too much space.

    And later in the article:

    In this case, the Celtics preyed on one of the Knicks’ year-long weaknesses: erratic communication and inconsistent execution while defending screens.

    New York switched on pick-and-rolls more often over Games 1 and 2 than it had all season. Yet, throughout parts of Saturday’s 115-93 Celtics victory, Towns appeared to be in drop coverage, which is when the guy guarding the screener sags back closer to the rim, just as Towns does before the Tatum 3.

    But perception is not reality.

    No matter how it looked, the Knicks did not change their pick-and-roll strategy between Games 2 and 3. Towns and others just functioned worse than they had all series — and in a familiar way.

    Cool on ptmilo that he actually saw it during the game, and quite early:

    half the team thinks we went back to drop and the rest thinks we’re still switching

    Tonight I will make sure the AC is pumpin so I can thow my orange hoodie and orange & blue dunks on while I watch the game

    War night

    I actually don’t think we have to win tonight or even game 5. We just have to not get blown out.

    Someone said this yesterday that winning games 1 and 2 bought us time and I agree with that. We just need to win one of the next three to force a game 7 and all the pressure will be on Boston, not us. We have time to win this series.

    hauser upgraded from doubtul to questionable ruh roh i was surprised at the jrue dr evil after his 3 although we absolutely deserved it at that moment i was surprised because he is kown as a nice guy who does not taunt opponents

    Just play better might work for the defense but the offense seems to have been in a rut for a couple months now, so if the Knicks lose but scroe well I’d probably feel better than if we lose but play good defense

    we go back to boston up 3-1 most will believe we can finish it up but if we go back 2-2 most will assume that we will lose

    It is true that we will be near-universally written off if we lose tonight, and everyone will assume the Celtics are going to advance with ease. But those are the exact circumstances under which we thrived in games 1 & 2.

    While everyone was scurrying to buy tickets to games 3 & 4, I picked myself up a pair to game 6, which was about 20% cheaper. I don’t think our team handles expectations well, but I love them when their backs are against the wall.

    I don’t think the Celtics handle expectations well, either. I think they settle too easily when they are overconfident. But in situations like Saturday and tonight they are focused and at their best.

    Tonight is only a must win for the news cycle and our nerves. Winning two in Boston earned us a lot of leeway.

    Hubie, you’re nuts. Tonight is a must-win so that we can have 3 chances to win an elimination game against Boston, which is about 7 less than we would most likely need with average luck, but we’d have a shot based on the law of averages.

    If we lose tonight the season is over. Winning 2 of 3 against Boston with real stakes and at least one more road win required has about a 0% chance of happening.

    Don’t get me wrong, we’re doomed either way because our starting lineup is structurally uncompetitive and Thibs isn’t gonna change it, but if there is any chance of advancing tonight has to be a win.

    1973 playoffs. Only 2 rounds, so meet Boston in Conference Finals, without HCA. We win, game 7 on the road. 8 man rotation, with Jerry Lucas playing the Mitch role and Dean Meminger (RIP) and Phil playing big time hero ball minutes while the starters rested (Dean started one game while Earl was injured). Phil was like Precious, ganglier with WTF and love-you plays in equal measure. Dean was better than Cam, lightning quick which could change momentum, but with the 3 point game, Cam can do the same. Rode the vibes to win against the favoured West team (Lakers). Don’t want it to go seven, but just saying if Cam and Precious give us some decent minutes while the starters hold their own….

    In 42 minutes of shared court time in this series, Jalen and Mitch have combined for a 124.1 offensive rating.

    I’ve been saying Mitch is the key to our playoff success since January, and despite the incredibly small sample size, what I’ve seen on the court feels like it’s bearing that out. My focus was on his defensive impact, but apparently he’s having a highly positive impact on the offense as well, since our rating without him is in the 90s. (It would have been the worst offense in the entire League by a large margin.) I thought Thibs got the memo, and was playing twin towers to prove it, but he still hasn’t made the most obvious adjustment, which is starting the game (and third quarter) with Mitch and not Hart. Mitch and KAT together are a plus 24 in the Celtics series..and again, it’s as much because of offense as defense.

    Thibs is not going to fix the offensive offensive issues this deep in the playoffs; the time for that has come and gone. All he needs to do is just play the right players at the right time and we could steal a couple more wins. Start with Mitch; play him and KAT together as much as possible. If you get 24 minutes with them together, 8 with just Mitch, 14 with just KAT, that leaves 2 for Precious. If we aren’t destroyed in those minutes we should be OK. There has to be a way to have them on the court together more, and Mitch more at the start of quarters to avoid the hacking strategy. (Or twist it to our advantage.)

    TL;dr: Thibs doesn’t have to change his terrible offense; he just needs to play the right players at the right times and we’ll be in a better position to win.

    TL;dr: Thibs doesn’t have to change his terrible offense; he just needs to play the right players at the right times and we’ll be in a better position to win.

    Narrator: he would not play the right players at the right time.

    We’re going down with the Josh Hart ship, even though Thibs allegedly looks at lineup data which shows the starters’ Ortg this series is well below 100

    More important than anything Thibs will do is that all Knickerbloggers graciously put aside their differences and join together to root for a Knicks victory tonight 😉

    This Giannis stuff dropping on the day of the draft lottery..

    More important than anything Thibs will do is that all Knickerbloggers graciously put aside their differences and join together to root for a Knicks victory tonight 😉

    I respectfully submit that I issued Official Pags Predictions before Game 1 and Game 2. I did not do so before Game 3, and well, you all saw the results.

    Therefore, Official Pags Predictions:

    -Starting lineup remains unchanged
    -BOS over 30 points in Q1, us under 20
    -BOS over 40% 3FG on 40+ attempts
    -Mitch only plays when we’re in bonus for some reason, over 10 FTA and under 4 makes
    -Towns 1 3PM or less
    -Wingstop under 20 points combined
    -Hauser plays, makes 4+ threes
    -20+ point loss, never within 10 after Q1

    Therefore, Official Pags Predictions:

    Thx, much. Rinse, repeat. But what do you *want to happen 😉

    The Knicks were 36-18 at the All-Star break. They went 15-13 after that. The 15 wins came almost all against bad teams, teams that had thrown in the towel on the season:

    CHI, PHI, MEM, MIA, SAC, POR, MIA, WAS, DAL, MIL, POR, PHI, ATL, PHO, BRK.

    The standout wins are a one point win over Memphis and a win over Milwaukee in which they didn’t have Dame. Eight of the 13 losses were by double digits.

    We just haven’t been very good against good teams, especially late in the season, because the reality is that we’re not really very good ourselves. We did win a scrappy series against a young Detroit team and got the two improbable wins over Boston, but we’re playing with house money here. We just really have not been a very good team for quite some time, and when you watch the team play, it looks like what it is: an above average team that is not really a contender.

    I’d make us sizable underdogs against every other team remaining in the playoffs.

    Macri’s newsletter today makes the case for putting Mitch in the starting lineup for Hart, and for the record I fully agree. The numbers speak for themselves and it would be reckless to wait until we’re down 3-2 to make a change instead of being proactive. From the newsletter:

    The starting five has a negative 20.7 net rating in this series, thanks mostly to an offensive rating of 90.4 in 68 minutes.

    Adding in the regular season to the last three games, in 133 total minutes against the Celtics, the normal starters have been outscored by 55 points, or slightly more than 0.4 points per minute.

    The numbers with Mitch are all much better (of course, it would be hard for them not to be). We’re obviously dealing with tiny samples, but: 1) the starting lineup hasn’t been all that good offensively for a long time now and 2) this comports with everyone’s eye-test, at least as far as I can tell.

    It’s kind of a shame, because what I think rama’s good post is getting at is that the best version of this team is still probably the current starting lineup, but with a bona fide offensive scheme that seeks to generate high-quality 3PA, meaningful ball movement, and all that jazz.

    But that’s not happening in game 92, so start Mitch, improve the defense, crash the glass, and get Jalen another screener/PNR partner. Hart would still be absolutely essential as a chaos agent off the bench.

    Thx, much. Rinse, repeat. But what do you *want to happen

    Obviously, I want us to beat the Celtics convincingly and in a way that shows we belong on the court with them. I want us to show the ability to generate quality shots the way they do in their sleep. I want to beat them instead of hoping they beat themselves badly enough.

    I want Brunson to throw up a classic playoff 40-burger. I want Towns to rain threes on them. I want Wingstop to give Tatum and Brown fits. I want Thibs to counter Mazzulla’s cutesy shit by starting Mitch so he can dominate the boards and swallow them up on D. I want Hart to come in off the bench and steal a bunch of momentum-shifting rebounds that flow into transition buckets.

    Thibs isn’t gonna let us do that though, so I don’t think it’s gonna happen. The more realistic hope is that we’ll shit the bed for the next 3 games and never be within 10 points after about 6 minutes in so that Leon will understand he needs to fire Thibs. Even that might not be enough after we lucked into 2-0.

    I’m feeling particularly morose about this one because I think what’s going to happen is that we’ll sprinkle in a fake comeback or two and lose the next three games more respectably and Thibs sticks around because we “pushed Boston to 6 games” and that’s seen as a respectable result for a team that’s all in until 2031 somehow.

    I don’t care if the final score is 60-58 I just want the Knicks to win.

    Obviously, I want us to beat the Celtics convincingly

    Thx. Agree with a lot of your fantasy game. Let’s root for it. I also take seriously your worry that we show *just enough to avoid some tough decisions in the off-season. Let’s get there first.

    As for lineups, I love the idea of Mitch starting. Let them hack him to the penalty and have their better players in foul trouble.

    I also think Bridges is begging for an IQ or Burks role where he takes over the offense whenever Brunson sits. If no one on the team has learned how to pass or cut by now, we should just let Mikal do this by design.

    I also think Bridges is begging for an IQ or Burks role where he takes over the offense whenever Brunson sits. If no one on the team has learned how to pass or cut by now, we should just let Mikal do this by design.

    Mikal has been pretty decent at this when he has been given the opportunity. There have been a number of occassions this year (including in game 2) where I have been almost shocked to see how well Mikal can create when he’s given the rock.

    In the half court with Brunson on the floor, he just seems slow, like he takes forever to get a shot off. They really do not seem to be very complementary players.

    The Knicks were 36-18 at the All-Star break. They went 15-13 after that. The 15 wins came almost all against bad teams, teams that had thrown in the towel on the season:

    CHI, PHI, MEM, MIA, SAC, POR, MIA, WAS, DAL, MIL, POR, PHI, ATL, PHO, BRK.

    Facts. But it didn’t have to be this way. The fact is that OKC countered it in January, the rest of the league copied them, and Thibs tried fucking nothing to adjust.

    For half a season! Nothing! While half of this blog made excuses because we had banked enough wins that our record was still okay. The guy needs to go! Better coaches are fired for less all the damn time! Better coaches are on the market! How is this not an ironclad consensus at this point!? I feel like I’m taking crazy pills!

    It’s still feels weird rooting for the actual games rn and not the lottery.

    I’m not optimistic about tonight, but I’m still taking the approach that we’re playing with found money, so whatever.

    Next year I’d like to see KAT primarily at the 4 and a healthy Mitch at the 5 (with either an even better center replacement or else a very good backup). Make Hart the super 6th man. Get another starting-caliber center and a 3-level scorer for the bench.

    And maybe consider a coaching change.

    what do we think assistant coach brunson is suggesting to tibs as ways to fix the offense

    I’ve long thought Bridges would be most effective being 6th man and leading the bench and McBride should start. I think the team would operate better

    Hubie, you’re nuts. Tonight is a must-win so that we can have 3 chances to win an elimination game against Boston

    We have 4 chances to win 2 games. We don’t need to call one of them something fancy to imagine its outcome is more important than any of the other ones.

    I’ve long thought Bridges would be most effective being 6th man and leading the bench and McBride should start. I think the team would operate better

    This is a sneaky good idea. Deuce is actually our best PoA defender and probably a better shooter than Bridges at this point.

    Count Brunson-Deuce-OG-Towns-Mitch as another potentially very effective lineup that Thibs failed to proof during the season.

    The fact is that OKC countered it in January, the rest of the league copied

    This is a myth. People just started noticing it more after OKC did it.

    Boston guarded KAT with wings on the opening night of the season. Dillon Brooks guarded KAT when we played the Rockets in November. The Hornets used Cody Moore to guard him in early December. And the Washington Wizards did it with Justin Champagnie on back-to-back games after Christmas.

    The downward trend didn’t begin bc teams started guarding Towns with wings. The trend began bc Thibs eventually responded to that defense by abandoning KAT as a screener, something he did back in early January. If you find a chart of KAT’s screen actions (I saw it in an article once, don’t know how to pull it up myself) you’ll see the number of screens he set dropped precipitously in January, exactly when our offense started to become ass.

    When KAT’s guarded by a wing we act like there’s no point in having him set a screen because they’ll just switch, so we simply give up using one of the best actions in basketball. It’s the most self-defeating offensive strategy I’ve ever seen. As if we can’t make good things happen with a wing on Brunson.

    ” I feel like I’m taking crazy pills!”

    Dial back them meds, Pags…

    Agree with trying Mikal as sixth man option. We sort of get it anyway when Brunson sits bc Bridges plays ~ the whole game, but what if we started Deuce (as you say).

    In a way I’m more confident that Mikal can score solo coming in to the rescue rather than Payne or Deuce.

    Or if it *looks bad to sit Mikal, then just practice (!) what the second unit offense does or should do differently.

    Just wondering, was anyone important out of the lineup for a bunch of the post all-star break games?

    Just wondering, was anyone important out of the lineup for a bunch of the post all-star break games?

    Just wondering, do our offensive metrics in these playoffs alleviate concerns about our late season offense, considering that guy has played every playoff game?

    Also just wondering, has our offensive performance against the Celtics been measurably better than that of the Orlando Magic, the 27th best offense this season?

    I would very much like to get a win in a game narrated by Mike Breen during this series.

    (1) OKC beat Denver by 43 points and Denver came right back to win the next game. It ain’t over.

    (2) Mikal has been a lot better offensively in the last 5 quarters. I’m not sure how Hauser changes things, but he’s been able to take advantage of some of Boston’s guards with his height/length. I don’t think he’ll be effective because Boston knows exactly where he wants to go each play and that led to 2 pretty horrific TOs last game. The more they play, the more they’ll recognize when he’s going to fade back.

    (3) I counted at 4-5 made Boston 3s when KAT was playing too far off the line. Two came against Horford and it’s possible he needed to be back to rebound and they’re letting Horford shoot, but he’s not dribbling past you, get up on him a little.

    (4) The starting unit has been our worst unit all year. There’s no reason to wait around and see if it’ll bounce back, there’s nowhere to bounce to. Start Mitch or at least try Deuce to get some more ball handling.

    (5) Mikal and OG can take advantage of most team’s 3rd, 4th, and 5th defenders. Boston’s defenders are too good for that to happen consistently.

    Just wondering, was anyone important out of the lineup for a bunch of the post all-star break games?

    The picture isn’t much better even if you only include games in which every member of the starting lineup was healthy. From January 1st until the end of the regular season, the healthy starting lineup had a -1.4 net rating (115.9 ORTG, 117.3 DRTG) in 18 games.

    In the playoffs, it has a -7 net rating (104.8 ORTG) in 9 games.

    It would be a genuine shame to sit around and hope for an epiphany with a golden opportunity staring us in the face.

    would very much like to get a win in a game narrated by Mike Breen during this series.

    +1

    — would also love if Mitch becomes an overwhelming dominant force and hits 60% of his free throws, thus giving us the narrative that he won the series.

    Mikal has been a lot better offensively in the last 5 quarters.

    I dunno, he was terrific in the fourth quarter of game 4, and his box score looks decent for game 3 at a glance, as he was 6-10 from the floor.

    But he only managed 10 FGA in game 3, had his customary 0 FTA in 38 minutes and didn’t make either of his three pointers, so he ended up with 12 points and 14.2 USG%. That’s sadly a typical not-moving-the-needle Mikal Bridges performance.

    Tonight just feels like another 2-3 posession game to be decided in the last 5 minutes.

    Tonight just feels like another 2-3 posession game to be decided in the last 5 minutes.

    If we keep the same starting lineup I expect a 20-30 possession game to be decided in the first 5 minutes.

    Thibs has changed the starting lineup before in the playoffs (Atlanta, Cleveland), though I doubt he’ll do it again. Hack-a-Mitch has given him the perfect opportunity to start KAT and Mitch together, but I don’t think he’ll do it this time.

    I dunno, he was terrific in the fourth quarter of game 4, and his box score looks decent for game 3 at a glance, as he was 6-10 from the floor.

    But he only managed 10 FGA in game 3, had his customary 0 FTA in 38 minutes and didn’t make either of his three pointers, so he ended up with 12 points and 14.2 USG%. That’s sadly a typical not-moving-the-needle Mikal Bridges performance.

    In his first 7 quarters he has a TS% under .300, so I’m gonna stand by the statement he’s been better.

    I *think* he’s been running the offense more often last game, which makes it more meaningful.

    But my point is really more about trying to get him matched up against White, Pritchard, and maybe even Jrue a bit more. He can shoot over those guys pretty easily.

    In 1,038 non-Brunson minutes Mikal had a .616 TS% on 22% USG. Directing bench units is basically the only role he genuinely thrived in this season. During the Detroit series I said I’d swap him out for Deuce or Shamet, juicing the starting lineup’s 3PAr and giving Mikal a chance to return to that role. It’s a fun idea that isn’t really worth discussing because it’ll never happen.

    Changing the starting lineup is one of those crazy ideas Z-Man pretends I come up with so I can bash Thibs for not doing it. It’s very radical and there’s no way he’s going to do it. There’s also a psychological impact people are overlooking.

    What Thibs can do is change his first substitution. He brings Mitch in for KAT 6-8 minutes into every single game. There’s no reason to be so rigid.

    Instead he should bring McBride in for Hart at that point and immediately start using Towns as a screener with 5 shooters on the floor. You can give that a 4 minute look in the 1Q, it’s not going to kill you. Then you can do the Mitch-for-Towns sub a little later so Mitch starts the 2nd quarter.

    There are many simple things he can do. He doesn’t have to change the starting lineup.

    Changing the starting lineup is one of those crazy ideas Z-Man always pretends I come up with so I can bash Thibs for not doing it. It’s too radical.

    So basically we’re going to continue to ensure that hack-a-Mitch is super effective in neutralizing the guy who has been our most effective player in the series by guaranteeing that we never play Mitch when the cost of hack-a-Mitch is highest.

    And we’re going to do this because of essentially politics, and you’re defending that?

    This is insanity, Hubie. The good coaches in the league pull every lever they have. Thibs doesn’t and that’s why he sucks — how many times have we seen opposing coaches shit on the refs, eat a fine, and get gift-wrapped a win the next game? We never do this because of some Ned Stark-esque sense of honor. Well, what happened to Ned Stark again?

    I’m honestly surprised to see you of all people defending Thibs basically sticking with a strategy that can’t win. If we play the starters for even the first 4 minutes we’re liable to be down 10 points. Why do we have to spot a vastly superior opponent a few points before we start competing?

    Pags I suggested trying it at the start of the 2nd quarter where it has literally the same impact.

    Pags I suggested trying it at the start of the 2nd quarter where it has the same impact.

    We need to try it at the start of all four quarters so we can maximize the minutes where Mitch is playing and we’re far from the bonus. If Mazzulla sees an advantage he doesn’t just press it half the time to be nice, he does it over and over and over. We need to be absolutely fucking ruthless to beat this team.

    Teams change starting lineups in the playoffs in response to results fairly frequently. Steve Kerr famously did so in the NBA finals, that the Warriors proceeded to win, largely due to the success of the Iggy/Bogut swap.

    If our coaching staff can’t handle the politics involved with telling Josh Hart he’ll be playing 30+ minutes off the bench, a role he has occupied plenty over the course of his career, I would consider that a pretty big indictment of them.

    Starting Mitch does absolute nothing to help KAT. It’s like waving a white flag and giving up on him.

    KAT is the key. Not Mitchell Robinson. We have a $60M weapon gathering dust. Prioritize him before Mitch.

    “Changing the starting lineup is one of those crazy ideas Z-Man pretends I come up with so I can bash Thibs for not doing it.”

    Just like your idiotic Obi comment yesterday, this only proves how much of a thin-skinned agenda-driven poster you are.

    From the time we first signed KAT, I stated without equivocation that Thibs should start KAT next to Mitch to try to mitigate KAT’s horrific defense as a 5 and do what Minny did so successfully with Gobert.

    And guess what? Some of the same folks bashing Thibs now were dismissing this idea out of hand, stating that “the best 5” should definitively start, including Josh Hart.

    If you are too stupid to make the connection, that’s actually a criticism of Thibs. Get it?

    The larger point is, you continually try to paint me as a wanton Thibs apologist, when I have disagreed with like a zillion decisions he has made, bot in-game and more generally. I just have respect for the guy and know that he is highly regarded in coaching circles, so I give him some deference even when I disagree with him or stuff doesn’t work. I don’t immediately press the “I’m smarter than the coach” button every time something bad happens, nor do I engage in the infantile “pulled his pants down” stuff to make myself feel all smart. That you need to do this shit speaks to the pathetic, unmoored soul that I think you are.

    I dunno, Hubert, Thibs did try to unleash him (second quarter of game 2, I think) and ran the offense through him for half a quarter. It was a disaster, because

    1) we hadn’t really played that way yet this year

    2) he can’t get to the low block; his idea of posting up starts at the elbow, resulting in bad possessions

    3) the Celtics wisely will not let him get an inch of daylight to shoot a 3.

    So…too late now, probably. Which is an indictment on Thibs not taking advantage of the regular season to experiment and come up with options once our offense fell off a cliff…but that’s why looking forward, our only solution is to use substitutions to get better matchups.

    I think starting Mitch helps KAT immensely on defense. He can be much more aggressive at the level of the screen without having to worry about protecting the rim, which is the defensive role where he’s shown the most promise.

    SSS obviously, but in 111 combined regular season and playoff minutes KAT/Mitch lineups have a 119.7 ORTG and 103.8 DRTG. KAT himself has a .589 TS% on 26.9% USG in these minutes. I don’t think they constitute giving up on KAT at all.

    It is of course possible, perhaps even probable, that with more exposure all of this evaporates. But look at the numbers of the incumbent group! Have we not reached “nothing to lose” territory?

    As well, I’m not suggesting starting Mitch to mitigate the FT issue, but because EVERY GOOD LINEUP IN THE PLAYOFFS HAS HAD MITCH IN IT. He is a positive even on offense! With KAT or without, as the first star I posted indicated – Brunson/Mitch 124 rating on offense this series.

    Why focus on the potential contributions KAT could make when we know the ACTUAL contributions Mitch has made?

    Thibs is definitely not going to change the starting lineup with a 2-1 series lead. He should, but he won’t. If he did, he should remove Bridges from the starting lineup not Hart, to start Mitch. Hart gives you fast breaking, passing, rebounding, and is shooting much better from three in the playoffs than Bridges …39% vs 30% … yes Bridges doesn’t hesitate to shoot, but he also doesn’t hesitate to brick or dribble off his feet for the first 3 quarters. Bridges can come in as a microwave option to lead the non-Brunson mins – maybe that will motivate him somehow.

    yes Bridges doesn’t hesitate to shoot, but he also doesn’t hesitate to brick or dribble off his feet for the first 3 quarters

    He kinda does actually, which is maybe the primary reason why the trade hasn’t worked IMO.

    Combined regular season and playoffs, our 3PAr is .369 with Bridges on the floor and .413 with him off. I thought we were replacing Donte’s gunner-ism with someone who could create a little more, was a more versatile defender, and still brought at least most of the gunner-ism. Instead we traded in the gunner-ism for midrange jumpers.

    “From January 1st until the end of the regular season, the healthy starting lineup had a -1.4 net rating (115.9 ORTG, 117.3 DRTG) in 18 games.”

    The 115.9 ORtg would be good enough to tie for 11th over the course of the season. That’s hardly a disaster. It’s the 117.3 DRtg that is the problem, at least as far as I’m concerned.

    The gaudy ORtg for the first couple of months was a mirage. We aren’t an elite offensive team. We have one player who requires either a bigger defensive specialist or a double-team to stop. Everyone else is eminently guardable one-on-one. We are middling at best defensively.

    I dunno, Hubert, Thibs did try to unleash him (second quarter of game 2, I think) and ran the offense through him for half a quarter. It was a disaster, because

    It was a disaster because all he did was ask KAT to self generate offense. All these “wrinkles” we add are really just letting someone else play the Brunson role in the ISO offense. Sometimes we let Mikal do it, too.

    Everyone knows how to unleash KAT: use him as a screener. Changing the starting lineup isn’t a bad idea, but it is a radical one with a cascade effect people are overlooking.

    Changing the first substitution to get KAT back involved as a screener with 4 shooters carries very little risk. It’s a worth a 4 minute try.

    You could start KAT and Mitch and then sub in Deuce for Mitch halfway through the quarter. Like others said, the reason for playing KAT and Mitch together is that those lineups have been very good, including in the playoffs.

    Hart is a bit of a square peg in a round hole, but you could go with a defense- and transition-only lineup and try to muck up the game a bit at times with Deuce-Mikal-OG-Hart-Mitch when KAT and Brunson sit.

    I wish I understood why our starting lineup is so bad.

    I can understand why it would be better with Mitch. I’ve been calling for more Mitch/Towns since Mitch was off his minutes restriction. I also like the idea of starting him so they can’t foul him right away. I just don’t understand why the starters are so bad despite some issues defensively and on the boards at times. The offense should be good even with the lack of creativity. I mean, we aren’t more creative with Mitch. I guess the combination of his rebounding (especially OREBs) and defense is very valuable on both sides.

    he should remove Bridges from the starting lineup not Hart, to start Mitch. Hart gives you fast breaking, passing, rebounding, and is shooting much better from three in the playoffs than Bridges …39% vs 30% … yes Bridges doesn’t hesitate to shoot, but he also doesn’t hesitate to brick or dribble off his feet for the first 3 quarters. Bridges can come in as a microwave option to lead the non-Brunson mins – maybe that will motivate him somehow.

    This. Mikal would be thrilled to spend more time as the microwave instead of Defend and wait in the corner. OG may even get jealous.

    It’s the playoffs, they need to get over their egos and recognize that we have 6 great players.

    Start Mitch. If nothing else, just see if Mazzulla compulsively fouls him and tell Hart, or whomever, you’ll put them back in of he doesn’t.

    You could start KAT and Mitch and then sub in Deuce for Mitch halfway through the quarter.

    That’s a lot of time without Josh Hart.

    FWIW I like the start Mitch idea. I’m just not gonna kill Thibs for not doing it. It’s pretty radical and has a lot of risk.

    On the other hand, there is no excuse to not try swapping Hart for Deuce for a couple of minutes in the 1Q to get back to the action that made us one of the best offenses in the NBA. Forget your small sample sizes. We have three months of data that suggest when KAT screens a lot we have an unstoppable offensive attack.

    Not changing the starting lineup = defensible

    Not playing one minute with 5 shooters on the floor so we can get back to what made us a great offense = indefensible

    The gaudy ORtg for the first couple of months was a mirage. We aren’t an elite offensive team. We have one player who requires either a bigger defensive specialist or a double-team to stop. Everyone else is eminently guardable one-on-one. We are middling at best defensively.

    I don’t disagree with this, but if we’re this deep into a win-now team, minus five first round picks, and our position is “not elite on offense and middling on defense,” somebody done fucked up

    I wish I understood why our starting lineup is so bad.

    – KAT can’t consistently generate efficient offense by himself

    – KAT can’t set a hard screen to free Brunson

    – KAT can’t get open for a 3 unless his man leaves him or he stands 10ft beyond the arc

    – They have 4 of the slowest athletes in the league

    – OG & Mikal are bad passers for their positions

    – Nobody shoots enough 3s

    – Hart doesn’t shoot 3s, and I mean shoot, he can make them at a decent enough clip

    – All of Mikal, Brunson, and KAT’s offense comes off of isos that take 15 seconds

    – Brunson takes 8 seconds to cross half court

    – Thibs backup offensive wrinkle is giving the ball to Mikal. We saw a year of this in Brooklyn, it doesn’t work against starters

    – Good defenses take away backdoor cuts/Centers ignoring Hart take away backdoor cuts. Those were a huge part of our early offense, it wasn’t just the Brunson/KAT PnR

    if we’re this deep into a win-now team, minus five first round picks, and our position is “not elite on offense and middling on defense,” somebody done fucked up

    It was definitely KAT.

    The gaudy ORtg for the first couple of months was a mirage. We aren’t an elite offensive team. We have one player who requires either a bigger defensive specialist or a double-team to stop. Everyone else is eminently guardable one-on-one. We are middling at best defensively.

    If we’re not an elite offensive team, we are witnessing a catastrophic front office failure.

    “the pathetic, unmoored soul that I think you are.”

    I thought that was me. Now I’m hurt.

    – OG & Mikal are bad passers for their positions

    I think this is actually a low-key important reason why our offense looks so terrible in the playoffs. We’re a bad passing team, and neither of those guys are creative or even opportunistic passers.

    I agree that trading all those pick for Mikal Bridges has the potential to be catastrophic. I also don’t think the KAT trade didn’t move the needle all that much, except that he stores more trade value than what we gave up for him. This is a deeply flawed team with a thin bench and little to trade that will bring back more value than what goes out. So other than an unlikely win in the series and a march the finals, it could certainly be argued that Leon really fucked up. Of course, he can pull another rabbit out of his hat this off-season, but there is no excuse for the Bridges trade.

    The other glaring floor on our team is our putrid bench. Deuce is aaight but nowhere near sixth man of the year caliber. Payne kind of sucks. Shamet kind of sucks. Precious kind of sucks. Mitch is great, except there is a Mitch is great except there is an easy work around to keep him on the bench. Not a single guy on our bench would be a plus starter on a good team.

    And yet, here we are, up 2-1 on the defending champs in a second round matchup. Oh yeah, and our coach sucks.

    PS, I have great seats for the game tonight, thanks to the generosity of a great friend. Pregaming on the Metro North as we speak.

    it’s not that being 2 – 2 in the series sounds so bad, it’s just that going up 3 – 1 sounds so much better…

    6 playoff wins and counting for this team…let’s just hope we can add some more…

    Early Bird

    I can pick apart the deficiencies of just about every starter in the NBA except for a handful of players. Only the lucky teams have a player with no real weaknesses on offense. The rest are borderline all-stars with a couple of weaknesses, role players or wouldn’t be starting on a very good team. We have a legit #1 and #2 option and 2 high level role players. Only Hart has a glaring weakness on offense and half of that is mental. There’s no way in hell these starters shouldn’t be a consistent top 3 offense. Maybe we’d be behind 1-2 of Boston, Denver and the Lakers (post Doncic trade). The bench is a drag, but that’s not the issue I’m talking about.

    I wish there was a way to test my hypothesis, but imo prime time D’Antoni would have this team playing offense like a juggernaut.

    I also don’t think the KAT trade didn’t move the needle all that much,

    He did, but not nearly enough to make up for the loss of I-Hart also.

    Losing DDV hurt the bench quite a bit (or starting lineup if they started him over J-Hart), but I think they knew that would be he case post trade and were more focused on finishing the starting lineup because it’s way easier to address the bench later (like at the trade deadline or this off season).

    dogie hauser officially out also officially same starting lineup for us as always

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