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243 replies on “Knicks Morning News (2025.01.30)”
Joker’s Mild.
Joker has the Knicks as a top 5 team in the NBA.
I guess the Mezzanine bullshit can stop?
I liked the game, we didn’t play very well but we played with H(E)ART! đ Brunson took over when it was needed, which is a great sign and someone said on the game thread we don’t appreciate him as we should and i agree, i often find myself forgetting that he’s having a good game just because that’s what he does most of the time.
Jokic didn’t look ok, maybe the early fouls and the extended bench time, i don’t know, but even if we’d lost just making it a hard fought game against a 2nd tier contender (i like this better than mezzanine) and we do it on a regular basis, clearly seems to be “saying” we’re one of those teams.
So let’s enjoy this team and be happy! đ§Ąđ
Hubert’s term, but as I understand it, the fifth best team in the league is (or can be) the Mezz. That strikes me as completely accurate.
They’ve literally been around fifth in Vegas all year long. (*)
Looks like another day of Mandated Consensus and Flexing About the Fact That You Think of the Knicks What Pretty Much Everyone Thinks About the Knicks, live on Knickerblogger.
(*) Fanduel has a Knicks chip at +1300, but a Thunder/Knicks final at +1200. Unless you really don’t believe in the Thunder, that delta is too small and the latter is the better bet if you really believe the market consensus is materially wrong.
Can someone explain the psychology of this flex? Is it just a version of the New Yorker cartoon where the woman can’t turn in for the night because her synapses are buzzing because she saw that someone said something wrong on the internet? Or is there more to it?
LOLOL
Toronto won its fifth straight, and seventh of eight. (*) Playing good basketball. Their GM did quite well in moving his two UFAs last winter; moving one in a talent and asset-accretive deal that has yet to fully pay off because of the injuries to one of the assets. He also got a good return, but not as good in relative terms, for the actual all-Star caliber player he had to move, but still did decently.
Good GM’ing. He’s done a nice job over multiple iterations of his roster, one of which won a championship. He was let down a bit for one reason or the other by the post-championship nucleus and rightly said bye-bye to it. Will be interesting to see where this one goes. (At least if you’re a fan of the NBA.)
(*) Quiet night for Boucher over 16 minutes.
Going into last night, Denver had a 118.8 offensive rating. The Knicks held them to 113.1.
The warriors started someone named Quinten Post at center last night and managed to beat OKC that’s pretty surprising. Anyone up late enough to watch that one?
No.
No.
So Draymond was trying to clown KAT for fronting Jokic on X? Jesus, man, you have a basketball game against the Thunder and are tweeting about the Knicks?
https://www.reddit.com/r/NYKnicks/comments/1ide159/draymond_green_calls_out_karl_anthony_towns_then/
Didn’t watch it, but before someone gets too excited, Post only played 8min with zeroes except his 2 TOs and 3 PFs.
One of the best Brunson games in his already amazing NYK career – nothing forced, 15 assists to 2 TOs, and was not a glaring negative on defense at all.
And another game in which no Knick played 40+ minutes. I think Thibs finally got the memo.
We very much need a Shamet replacement. His box scores are very Frank Ntilikina-like — one can only hope that he’s still getting his rhythm back after the long layoff, but he looks like he’s just getting cardio out there. you know who would look great on this team right? Quentin Grimes. Of course we prob would not have Mikal without Grimes being sent out (either as part of the Bogey trade or going to the Nets directly). But his defense and shooting would really look good on the team right now.
Yâall really should stop celebrating wins by pretending they disprove larger points that they definitely did not disprove.
But today Iâm going to ignore Rasâ unnecessary provocation and thank both Noble and Clarence for great recommendations. When I got to Black Market I was a little worried about the residual karma from Kevin Knox but when I saw a cocktail named Better Call Saul on the menu I knew it would be ok.
And when a second NY friend raved about Zak the Baker I made sure I stopped there to get the babka (and the sourdough, which my friend recommended for sandwiches). Clarence really knows what to eat.
Definitely agree. Anyone know when we’re able to sign TJ Warren?
Thank you for going high when others go low. Michelle Obama would be proud.
Could you imagine the Joy (TM) that would befell this place if the Knicks beat a fully-healthy Celtics team by 13, holding them to 97 points — as Toronto did two short weeks ago?
Beethoven himself would be stunned and amazed.
The end of February-ish
We would achieve a heightened state of ecstasy that rivals the ultimate level of Nirvanic enlightenment. It would amount to a transcendence so pure that even the basketball gods themselves shall pause to admire its perfection.
Of course I open this damn blog to read Raptors talk. Bye.
Good morning, fellow Knickerbloggers!!!
“Thank you for going high when others go low. Michelle Obama would be proud.”
I could be wrong, but I think this was Hillary Clinton, not Michelle Obama. I would have preferred that it be Michelle, though, because I like her about 1,000,000x Hillary.
You read those posts? Try my formula: just ignore them.
One of the Raptors players has been mentioned a lot as a potential Knick trade target.
I am pretty happy with this team. I also am somewhat oddly disappointed that Jokic disappeared last night.
Itâs silly to say a couple plays changed the game but Hartâs steal of the Jokic outlet and the Towns block that turned into the Brunson to Bridges layup definitely did. Just awesome.
Shout out to Precious too. Not sure it shows in the statline but he was very active on defense after Towns went out. Heâs pretty switchable and is a pest out there. Heâs been good if not everything we would want him to be.
It was Michelle.
He quiet quit. Foul trouble early, then looked at least marginally hobbled later, but he phoned it in completely. The NBA season is very long. It happens. Glad I didn’t buy a ticket.
“It was Michelle.”
Thanks, ras. I’m glad to be wrong on this. I would vote for Michelle for President in about a millisecond, given the option to do so.
I thought he and Deuce were so crucial to the winning effort last night. They allowed Thibs not to lean too heavily on the starters.
Only thing about Precious that vexes me is how poor a rim finisher he can be at times. Other than that, he’s arguably been our most important bench piece.
Arguably the classiest first lady since Elenor Roosevelt. A shame too many people were too sexist and racist to see it.
Tell us more about your politics, guys. We’re all curious. Sounds like you’ve been let down by a fallen world.
No.
Glad you enjoyed, Hubert. Iâm not sure if they had the cinnamon babka back or just the chocolate but both are excellent. The cinnamon was discontinued about three years ago and was easily one of the finest breads Iâve ever eaten. The syrup that thickened at the base melting languidly against relentless waves of hot coffee from Panther around the corner.
My anxiety about KATs fingers and opposables is nervey and blindspot lurking. He seems to be able to manage the pain and discomfort enough to play but man is it sore to watch. Heâs a pretty expressive dude. And heâs out there so the trauma is likely just minor soft tissue issues and he just wears his sympathetic nervous system on the outside but please be ok, KAT. I need you to be ok.
Remind me the issue with this? Is it that his current pro-rated vet minimum is too expensive for our apron situation and so we have to wait until he has less than 500K (or whatever our apron space is) left?
Assuming he’s healthy – something like a Cam/Deuce/TJ/OG/Precious second unit might have the right mix of scoring/shooting and defense. I remember TJ being all-offense and pretty bad defense but it might be ok against bench units with that lineup.
Also, I donât get the DeâAaron Fox hubbub. Call me crazy but I wouldnât want that guy on anything remotely close to a max contract.
That’s exactly it. If we make a trade in the next few days where we send out more money than we take back, we could promote Warren â or Okeke, or sign someone not on our radar right now â sooner. But if we stand pat at the deadline, we have to wait a few more weeks before we can afford a 15th man.
If we can make a meaningful upgrade in a trade with our limited assets, then we should do it. Otherwise, the goal should be to find an 8th/9th man type who won’t cost too much, but who Thibs will consistently play, whether over Shamet or when one of our guys is inevitably out with an injury. Reliable depth.
Lots of buzz about the Heat lowering their ask for Butler.
And apparently the Heat have some interest in our old friend Julius. Imagine Jimmy winding up in Minnesota for a second time, only without KAT to act abusive towards.
I would give them a half eaten ham sandwhich and a bag of chips.
Cinn Babka ok. Doesn’t compete w Choc. Not sexy, Breads makes an great Choc. Just the right balance. Babka more interesting than rehashing the same points about Raps.
If the mention was mine of Poetl. W raps improved play, no way they would give him for Mitch/Prec.
Prec looked good last night. Played within himself.
Something that I’m not sure has been discussed here is Thibs’ superpower. Getting guys to play to their strengths. Need talent, but I think this is the single most important ability of a coach. And the main reason why I love the trades/signings. Every player we brought in, buys in. Every player we sent out didn’t have the constitution to play to their strengths.
I could be convinced the corpse of Valanciunas makes sense. Tough, smartish, buys in, doesn’t need minutes, can hit a 3…tough. For Mitch frees up $4mm (does freeing up salary help given cap rules)? I can’t get the espn trade machine to work for anything…is it busted?
Without getting into whether it would work for salary purposes — it almost certainly would (will/way) — OG for Butler takes the Knicks out of the Mezz (*) for at least the next two years. Presumably he would have more appeal to the Heat than Julius, with the caveat that Julius is an expiring. (Double presumably, if they traded for Julius, they’d resign him.)
(*) Or, put another way, +1300 on an NYK with OG swapped out for Butler is a bet you should take. (Assuming full health for Butler, which again should be assumed.)
“Without getting into whether it would work for salary purposes â it almost certainly would â OG for Butler takes the Knicks out of the Mezz for at least the next two years. Presumably he would have more appeal to the Heat than Julius, with the caveat that Julius is an expiring. Double presumably, if they traded for Julius, theyâd resign him.”
Butler misses too many games. And he’s old. And he’s an asshole. And he and KAT don’t get along. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope.
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6097103/2025/01/30/knicks-trade-deadline-nba/?source=emp_shared_article
Edwards III thinks the Knicks are going to do something at the trade deadline, and points to a Sims deal as our most likely move. And then suggests two different possibilities:
1. Sims for an equally cheap wing, with frequent KB topic Javonte Green listed as an example; or
2. Sims and a 2nd round pick sent to a team with cap space, in exchange for a worse 2nd, to give the Knicks additional breathing room to pick up somebody on the buyout market.
He also talks about the Mitch situation, and what other teams in the league are hearing/thinking about Mitch.
If the Knicks swapped OG for Butler, I would immediately empty my gambling account on “under” if I could find that action.
It’s not that Butler isn’t the better all around player. He is. He just wouldn’t be very accretive on this team, would probably player fewer games than OG (imagine that) and instead of having a locker room full of players that seem to really like each other and headlines about us winning, we’d be getting headlines about drama on the Knicks.
That’s a hard NO
Just gonna leave this here for you, E:
https://www.raptorsrepublic.com/
I don’t get the fascination with Warren.
Probably a good trade because Sims is garbage and our 4th or 5th string C, but another 6’4″ wing shouldn’t be high on our priority list. Then again we’re not gonna get anyone more useful for Sims.
I think the idea of Warren is more compelling than the actuality of Warren. He’s a lot bigger than Shamet, and has had more success at the NBA level, including a stretch in the bubble where he was unstoppable on offense. But that was four years ago, he’s been through a lot of injuries since then, and he’s a bad defender. And while his stats in the G-League are good, they’re not otherworldly against that competition.
Also, given how thin we were earlier in the season, I feel like if the FO and/or Thibs thought he could genuinely help, they would have just promoted him and made Shamet wait until the end of February.
Who’s a wing who is 1)a cromulent enough veteran that Thibs will play, 2)6’6″ or taller, and 3)Makes a small enough salary that he could be traded for Sims alone? I think we’ve seen Thibs become almost shockingly comfortable with smaller lineups. The issue with Shamet isn’t his height. It’s that his shot hasn’t really returned from the way it looked in preseason, and that his defensive effort can be wildly inconsistent. A guy his size who’s more reliable, for only Sims, feels like an excellent trade.
The Knicks need to get out of the Mezz over the next couple years. They have to make a decision on Mikal this offseason, and KAT is also eligible for an extension this offseason. (Sportrac) His deal is up after the ’26-’27 season — two more years after this.
Maxing out a Mezz team isn’t smart GM’ing. Better to take a swing in this window between now and the end of KAT’s deal, see if it works and then if it doesn’t, either strip it down or make a bunch of retooling trades to regain some of the squandered 1s and change the mix around JB. Makes no sense to max Mikal (who isn’t really worth it) and then just bumble/stumble along in the Mezz.
(*) Assuming he doesn’t exercise his player option, which he won’t unless he’s not very good anymore.
No.
Some really stupid trolling this morning. Nice to sidestep it like dog stuff on the sidewalk. Which I think is a very accurate analogy. Poop away!
I think (ras’s?) post from yesterday was an important point to consider:
The New York Knicks since December 1st:
Record: 21-8
Net Rating: +9.9 (3rd)
Offense: 2nd (121.1)
Defense: 6th (111.2)
That’s two full months where the defense is sixth in the league. It has been argued that this (D) is our achille’s heel, and if it stays in the middle tier (15 or 16) we’re doomed, at least chip-wise. It has also been argued that we’re getting better, and that Thibs’ teams usually get much better as the season goes on.
It appears that the latter take is on very solid footing. More so than two crushing wins and beating the world’s best basketball player on a down night, this says we’re solidly in contention.
“I donât get the fascination with Warren.”
Probably because he had a three-year stretch in which he averaged between 18-20 points per game, on good shooting. And he’s already in our organization.
Yeah, it’s a great trade. I just wonder if Javonte is washed, which would still be better than Sims. Looking through Javonte’s numbers a bit more and his rebounding would be a big help and, though he’s also 6’4″, he at least plays as a forward regularly.
I’m just looking for what he solves, which is probably just wing depth or 2nd unit player if Landry can’t find his shot. That’s probably more than enough though.
E’s posting continues to be inane and annoying, but nothing to get all in a tizzy about. ras is devolving into a counter-troll, no need for that either.
Shamet’s the kind of guy who has a reputation as a marksman, but who has only occasionally played like one. Like Warren at this stage of Warren’s career, the idea of him is more appealing than the actuality of him.
Re the inane part, the notion that Leon should somehow strike while the iron is hot and bail on the OG-Mikal experiment is just the latest in a years-long string of ridiculous posts about what Leon should do and not do that have not aged particularly well.
The rancid farting spree continues.
Hell to the No on Jimmy Butler. Seriously?
Even if you want to say he is better than OG now at age 36, he would be an absolute distraction to this team. Not to mention, he wants a big fat new contract (Paul George anyone), so he would blow up our cap. And sorry, OG is better when you factor in age and defense (butler has lost a step).
We do not need him. Throw in the history with Towns and it would just be a monumentally stupid “all in” move for us.
I’m very open to an all-in type move involving OG, Bridges or Hart in the off season, but the team is really starting to gel and click and if Mitch does come back and Leon can make a small move for the bench, we could really have something here. We should see where this goes before completely rearranging the team mid season.
We do not need to be desperate. I know there are some who look at anything but a championship as failure, but I do not see it that way at all.
We’re not talking about a guy who’s going to step into the starting lineup and be a star, he’s a guy who can replace Shamet off the bench and play 15-20 mpg.
Was going to respond to the bullshit but yeah.
Alan made a post about one of them going out for JJJ less than 24 hours ago.
“I know there are some who look at anything but a championship as failure, but I do not see it that way at all.”
Shooting for a championship and not getting one isn’t failure. It’s hard to win one. Very hard. Glomming along in the Mezz year after year is failure.
He is so good sometimes, and his chemistry with OG is unreal. When we run Precious-OG-Towns out there, I think the two former Raptors can adequately cover for Towns’ deficiencies.
Someone really needs to tell this guy how much money he can make if he practices shooting corner 3’s for 4 hours a day.
I like Shamet and think he is like a lot of end-of-rotation pieces around the league…good stints and forgettable ones. The only thing I don’t like about him is his size, because he, Deuce, and Payne are all in that smallish range for their respective positions.
But when you think about the fact that we have a cromulent bench rotation at a total price of $14M, including 2 guys on vet’s minimum deals, it’s pretty incredible. Mitch makes more that that by himself.
We need a backup C. Maybe we should sign Ewing. He used to be pretty good too and he’s in the organization also. đ
I have nothing against Warren. I just don’t think he moves us forward in any significant way now.
I see we’re going to feed stupidity to get sucked down into another vortex after a terrific win, yet again.
Ah Bartelby. Ah humanity!
I agree. He’s very close to solving one of our issues. He just needs to shoot a bit better form the corner and around the basket.
Warren isn’t assisted on many of his buckets, and his scoring is near the top of the g-league, but he’s still scoring less than Jacob Toppin who can’t see the floor for us.
There’s also the 36yo Isaiah Thomas who has only played 2 games but is averaging 15pts/36 more than Warren.
So it’s really a question of whether you think TJs creation is going to translate well to the NBA, or if we should go with another g-league standout like Kevin Knox II who is only a couple PPG behind but ahead in rebounds.
I don’t see this team looking to move past Shamet after his unfortunate injury sidelined him for so long. The guy worked very hard to get back and will be given a longer leash on the bench so long as everyone else in front of him stays healthy.
Of course he doesn’t but he’s available and doesn’t cost anything other than money. We’re only going to dabble on the margins, we’re not making huge changes to a top 5 team unless someone unbelievable becomes available to us.
I had really great seats last night. About 10th row up center court. The vibes on this team are immaculate. They never panic.
The most notable thing about their play was Brunson. He is turning into a poor manâs Steve Nash in being able to probe the paint with his handle and fit perfect passes into tiny windows.
I’m sure he’s practicing them, lol. Ever see those videos of Mitch draining three after three in an empty gym?
Yeah I think TJ could be useful and if he’s out there with Deuce, Cam, Precious/Mitch, his weak D probably isn’t as much of an issue.
Side note, I LOVED the 5 man unit of Deuce, Cam, Precious with Mikal and OG.
That makes a lot of sense to me, and I would be very happy for Julius if he got to Miami. I think Spoelstra would get the best out of him.
Of course it would be kinda like how I am happy for Saquon but still want to gouge my eyes out when I see him in an Eagle uniform.
Feels like every time on this blog a player gets hurt and misses a lot of time, we want to get rid of them when they come back and aren’t great right away.
Listen to the players! Precious just talked about this the other day. It takes a while to get your rhythm back after you miss so long. And with certain inuries, like hamstring, there is a huge mental aspect to it to as far as trusting your body to do the things it was able to do before the injury.
Shamet is a shooter and he fucked up his shoulder. Give him a few weeks!
That being said…also bring up TJ lol.
Thomas is very clearly washed and would be playing behind Brunson, Payne, and Deuce. Doesn’t help the team at all and, if anything, would probably hurt. TJ Warren is a 3 who can also play the 4 and can play competent offense and defense.
“Alan made a post about one of them going out for JJJ less than 24 hours ago.”
I will stipulate that any deal for a substantially better player than any player on out roster should be considered. For example, if Leon can trade KAT for Jokic or Giannis, he should do it. Personally, I don’t see the point in discussing trades that have virtually no chance of happening, such as trading one of OG or Mikal for JJJ. I mean, why would Memphis do that? If such a trade actually happens out of the blue, as the KAT trade did, great!
Beyond that, Alan does not have the reputation of a troll who has been throwing anti-Thibs/anti-Leon shit at the wall for their entire regime, only to see nearly all of it bounce off…mixed in with blaming everyone else but himself for his trollish rants. When he brings something up, it’s going to be treated differently than when you bring something up, and you have no one to blame but yourself for that. But hey, troll on!
Yeah as much as I hate the Heat and also as much as I think it might be weird at first for him to go to the team that got him injured last year, I think Randle in Miami makes A LOT of sense.
Randle is a gym rat and the Heat are all about that. I think his bully ball style would do well down there and Riley/Spo would get the most out of him. I’d hate to face Randle on the Heat, lol.
But I think it would be a good look and also hilarious if Butler ends up in Minny again.
When I read that Miami was interested in both Randle and LaVine it forced me to look up Riley’s age.
This is so obvious and yet….
This. I hated it when Thibs went with Deuce, Cam, Precious, OG and KAT.
Can’t wait till Monday night when Dillon Brooks gets all up in Brunson’s face and pisses him off. Not a good strategy.
I’d have to think about that carefully for awhile, but there would be some basketball logic to a deal like that for NY. I’m not sure why Memphis would do it.
With notoriously dirty players like Brooks, Draymod, Bam, etc., I worry way more about someone getting hurt than winning or losing.
They wouldn’t. (*)
OTOH, Miami might for OG. Depends what their thought process is. I’d certainly hope they’d value OG higher than Julius or else … gulp. We were certainly told at length for many months about OG’s “value” around the league and how “coveted” he is. Would be nice to actually cash in on it.
Mikal’s up for a max this summer. So’s KAT. Time to make some tough decisions. Can’t be avoided.
(*) Unless there’s some financial reason, and I’m not going to bother looking at whether there is. If there is, acquiring OG wouldn’t solve it — so there probably isn’t.
That’s kinda the point. If a clearly washed Thomas can score 40 per 36, it’s a little hard to get excited about TJ scoring 25 per 36.
He’s long and can play enough, maybe that makes him playable, but TJ is very much a g-leaguer at this point in his career.
Idk, hopefully he proves me wrong.
Strat, I donât know if you were being facetious when you say we need a backup center. We already have Sims, Achiuwa and Hukporti and Mitch may come back soon. Thatâs four backup centers. Of course, a center much better than the first three in this list but improving over them is different than just needing someone to play the position. If anything, I think trading Sims might be the Knicks doing him a solid. If Mitch comes back he wonât get much playing time. He has value in the trade market because he makes a tiny salary and can defend and get rebounds. I could see the Spurs, the Nuggets or the Pacers being interested, for example
Bingo!
Yeah, Precious had a sequence last night that felt like rhe NBA equivalent of a cavalry charge into a WW1 machine gun nest. He can do some things here and there that give you hope but overall heâs fringe on offense.
We need a big more than we need Warren. If Warren is playing appreciable minutes we probably have bigger problems.
This is hypothetical, but wouldn’t Myles Turner at 5 be the perfect fit for this roster that would put the Knicks beyond Celtics territory? He’d allow us to play KAT at the 4 and still stretch opposing defenses. Is there a scenario where we could ever get this guy and keep our starting squad together? Josh Hart could come off the bench and then become a wrecking ball 6th man of the year – that would be the wing we are all dreaming of for our backup squad.
We don’t talk about it much but Landry Shamet actually sucks. Replacing him with Green would give us a real 9-man rotation and make Shamet someone we don’t ever have to give a playoff minute to.
We have Moses Brown in the g-league at C. He’s putting up 20 & 17 per 36 and shooting 38.8%… from the FT line.
Let’s make it happen! đ
In fairness, nobody’s perfect.
A repost of an intelligent post:
Guys, we can have Javonte and Landry and TJ.
Nobody is saying dump Landry but if we acquire a better player, we should play him.
So if the Heat trade Butler for Randle, The Troll will conclude that one of the following must be true, proving how much smarter The Troll is than anyone else:
-Leon offered OG but the Heat valued Julius more than OG
-Leon didn’t offer OG and therefore he doesn’t know what he’s doing because without that trade the Knicks are hard-capped at the mezzanine.
Knicks have the 6th best defense in the NBA for the past two months….
Without Mitchell Robinson ….
Discuss, please….
You can address the substance of those two anticipated things The Troll would say at your leisure, Z-Man.
Sportrac’s a good source for the financials, including contractual status and extension eligibility.
Imagine how weird this thread would look to someone reading it who’s blissfully unaware that a lot of posters devote a lot of time to full-on bits. The team looks better than it has in 30 years, is on a 55 win pace, employs one (1) 30 year-old rotation player, and you have people rambling about mezzanines and trading away multiple starters!
I do think we could all, myself very much included, do a better job of recognizing when people are just doing bits as opposed to trying to contribute and ignore them. If, for example, after the best stretch of Knicks basketball I can remember, someone wakes up and immediately takes a kind of bizarre victory lap about the 15-32 Raptors beating the 6-40 (!) Wizards, it is worth asking if they are genuinely trying to enrich the discourse around here.
Indy has won 8 of their last 10, probably aren’t thinking of blowing it up anymore. So I don’t think there’s much of a chance we get him.
I know itâs been said a lot but does the argument actually have any merit?
Last year we peaked in January following a trade before injuries derailed our season. Then we bounced back a little bit before injuries derailed it again.
Two years ago we got better because we traded for Josh Hart and he shot like Steph Curry for three months.
Three years ago we cratered in the second half.
Four years ago we got better because we traded for Derrick Rose and he found the fountain of youth.
I don’t see a Thibs effect, just some shrewd in-season trades that changed our course.
I don’t think I’ve ever seen someone who can look so good finishing and then so hopeless finishing at the rim like Precious. Maybe a young Marcus Camby, he used to drive me nuts too in that regard but he was such a great rebounder and shot blocker that you could overlook his offensive shortcomings.
When I say we need a backup C, I mean “upgrade”.
Mitch might solve multiple problems in that he can probably play both with Towns or as the backup and give us paint protection, OREBs and size against some matchups. But will he last?
I’m a fan of Huk, but he doesn’t seem to be ready.
Sims has some positive attributes, but he’s too limited.
I see Precious as a C skill wise but with PF size. He’s OK at backup against some matchups, but I’d rather see him develop his shot and be used as a PF.
Thibs’s teams consistently *don’t* play better as the year goes along, because they underperform in the playoffs virtually every year, particularly offensively. His playoff record is nine games below .500. As Hubert noted already, he’s been outcoached at least three times in his playoff runs with the Knicks — McMillan, Carlisle, Spoelstra.
Damnit. I guess I’ll go back to dreaming of a KAT for Giannis trade.
I read that he was potentially available because he wants too much for his next contract, but what could we give up to get him on the chance he was actually available?
Mitch & Precious get close.
Indy’s a conference rival with notions of making playoff noise. You can try, but it’s highly unlikely they’re going to flip a guy that good for that package. With his flimsy ankle, Mitch is a spec buy at most.
Mikal makes an essentially-matching salary. I’d do that trade. Doubt Indy would, but they should be called to see.
Turner’s a UFA at the end of the year. Balances the team better than Mikal does. I’d rather invest in him.
The other option is offering up Josh Hart for him. Much tougher call.
I think Precious and OG both have similar issues finishing at the rim actually. They dunk well when given freedom but when the prospect of contact arises some strange shit happens.
From the “How Are We Not Talking About This” Department:
Apparently Adam Silver said on the Dan Patrick show that he is a fan of the idea of having 40-minute NBA games of four 10-minute quarters!
“Something else that Iâm a fan of, and Iâm probably in the minority, as we get more involved in global basketball, the NBA is the only league that plays 48 minutes. And I am a fan of four 10-minute quarters. Iâm not sure that many others are. Putting aside what it means for records and things like that, I think that a two-hour format for a game is more consistent for modern television habits. People in arenas arenât asking us to shorten the game, but I think as a television program, being two hours, as Olympic basketball is two hours âŠâ
I truly can’t wait until the trade deadline is behind us and we can shift the discussion to “Leon is stupid because he either didn’t or couldn’t do what The Troll wanted him to do. BTW how ’bout those Raptors?”
I was going to say it’s because he was a really good reserve on the Bucks team that won the title. He even guarded Kevin Durant effectively.
Then I went to look up his numbers from that year and that’s when I realized this whole time I thought we’ve been talking about PJ. Tucker.
I’m no expert in how the NBA cap works or what our situation there is, but for me, you find a way to fill in the rest of that trade with whatever picks you can because our team becomes title favorites (IMHO) for the next few years with that starting lineup of Turner, Towns, Anunoby, Bridges, and Brunson while Hart comes off the bench. You can fill in the rest with whatever you can find off the scrap heap.
We’re not looking for scoring, we have plenty of that. We’re just looking for a better bench piece than Shamet. Also, you ignored that Warren is 6 years younger than IT, plays a position of need, and is a cromulent defensive player.
Mike Malone was not a fan of the 10 min quarters proposal to say the least, also mentioned talk of a 4pt line and said he doesn’t want the NBA to become Barnum and Bailey.
I’m not sure what I think about the 10 minute quarters. Pros and cons. Probably won’t get through the union anyway because it threatens to kneecap the salaries of bench guys in that, all equal, they will become less important. Maybe Silver is thinking of expansion and the new jobs it brings as the trade-off offer to get buy-in.
If the NBA goes to 10-minute quarters we no longer have to worry about Thibs having a 9-person rotation.
I think you’re still thinking of early season Bridges who played like crap. He’s taken 141 layups and hit 70% and is also 78% on fingerrolls. He’s also shooting 62% against very tight defense and 53% against tight defense.
Silver’s 10-minute/quarter proposal is fucked for one simple, basic reason: the NBA is actually asking we, the NBA fandom, to pay the same price (if not more) for less product in an era of inflation. That’s not going to float among sports consumers at a time when the NBA is decreasing in popularity within the United States.
This isn’t like MLB putting in 10 second pitching clocks either, BTW. Baseball didn’t say, “We’ll make games 7 innings instead of 9 in length.” They just eliminated all of the tedious bullshit players were doing to unnecessarily prolong the game in between the actual in-game action. The NBA actually wants to just cut the actual in-game action to account for the fact that players won’t/can’t play as many regular season games as they used to.
100%
Defense has crept up to 13th per CTG, and 0.4 PTS/100 away from the top 10. It definitely feels different, and from my POV the main differences are 1) Mikal looking like the guy we traded 5 firsts for at the POA 2) OG OGing again 3) related to the first 2, generating some damn turnovers (overall defensive TOV% up to 15th).
Defensive TOV%, Oct – Nov: 13.1% (25th)
Defensive TOV% Dec – Jan: 15.7% (7th)
Noise? Adjustment? Rest? Dunno, keep it up. I like steals.
Santi Aldama fits the Strat archetype of need very well. He’s still on his rookie deal. With the weird 11-man rotation and the JJJ “rumors” it’s hard to tell exactly what Memphis is thinking or what they’re up to. It’s also hard to tell whether Aldama is happy with it all given his minutes lagging his production and pending free agency, but there’s another phone call to make.
Because he’ll switch to a 5-man “rotation”. đ
The problem with both I think is they try to avoid contact at the rim instead of just trying to power thru it and possibly at least draw a foul.
Guys, come on, Indy would never trade Myles Turner for a package of Mitch and Precious.
What if we throw in Landry Shamet to sweeten the pot?
ThisChicanery – I was talking about OG not Bridges. OG really is weird. He dunks the ball a ton but just seems to have bad balance or something in traffic. and a corresponding complex about it.
“Guys, come on, Indy would never trade Myles Turner for a package of Mitch and Precious.”
I think that’s very, very, very true.
Facts! – post November Mikal has been the best 3rd banana in the association and its not even close. Both offensively & defensively.
If you net him out…fuhgeddaboudit
Silver could propose reducing the NBA season to around 70 games a regular season, but that would mean fewer games and, therefore, less revenue. This is why Silver’s 10 minute/quarter proposal is bullshit and an insult to fans. Its basically just another form of rebranding to fool consumers into paying the same price for less than what we’ve been normally promised.
To be very clear, I do not want Isaiah Thomas.
People want TJ Warren precisely because he was a good scorer 5 years ago. If we don’t want scoring, why do we want TJ? Because we recognize his name?
I have no reason to think Warren is better at standing in the corner and playing defense than the next DaQuan Jeffries.
Putting aside the fever hopes that some team will just give the Knicks a quality asset at a charred price, and everything will be joyous and risk-free until the end of days, the actually serious things for the next step are things like OG for Butler; Mikal or Hart for Turner; Deuce for Aldama. I’m sure there are a bunch of other things that can be thought up, some of which might or might not be better for the Knicks — but that’s the general ballpark.
Two weeks ago the sentiment changed where we coudnt win 50 games and we have regreesed. Now I hope that pesimism porn page has been turned.
Next KPI is probably the infamous 40/20 rule. If/when we hit that, – can we all please turn the page from zero to a resonable chance of going to the NBA finals?
Need a culture shift to ideas on how to fix the Knicks to just rooting for.
Love that post by ras that Knicks have the 6th best defense in the NBA for last 2 months. Need more stats like this that focus on positive shit and illustate trends towards improvement.
LFG NY Knicks!!!
Brunson currently tied for 3rd in offensive EPM with Curry, Hali, and Doncic.
KAT is 19th.
2nd bananas ahead of KAT (not in order):
– Lillard
– Spida (Garland is ahead)
– Kyrie
– Embiid (Maxey ahead)
I agree some pick value would have to be added.
If they trade Turner (which doesn’t seem likely to me anyway), they are almost certainly going to want a C back. They are not going to start over. They just don’t want to pay him or lose him for nothing.
It’s a shame Mitch didn’t make it back. If he looked good his value would be higher now no matter what kind of deal we went after.
Or someone at a different position who’s already signed beyond this year.
Isaiah Jackson comes back for them next year. (Technically, I think James Wiseman does, too, but … yeah.)
I donât get to watch the entirety of most games, because being out here on the west coast Iâm often doing dad stuff like picking up my kid from school and making dinner and whatnot while the Knicks are playing. But I have noticed a few things on the defensive end:
-Precious has been a very effective defender the last month or so, and holds his own well when switched onto a wing
-The Knicks seem to be doing more switching
-Mikal getting obliterated on every screen seems to have been mostly fixed
-Opposing ballhandlers donât get to their spots quite so easily like they did earlier in the season
I don’t know what the shifts have been in terms of the defensive schemes, but it does appear as there have definitely been some shifts.
There does indeed seem to be an effort to generate more easy transition buckets, whether via turnovers or defensive rebounds and quick outlets. Our pace is no longer dead last, and I think the overall pace numbers are distorted by how often the Knicks go deep into the clock when they are not in transition…but in watching the games it seems like we are running out in transition more than ever.
There definitely seems to be less switching, more staying home on shooters, and less drop coverage, but I’d have to see more evidence for this.
It also seems like Mikal is a more effective POA defender than he was earlier, but again, just an eye-test thing.
Precious has major warts, but the energy he brings is awesome, especially on D. He’s definitely more than earning that salary that appeared to be bloated for trade purposes at the time of the signing.
Deuce is also a terror on D, and he has been making some clutch shots during this run.
And Cam Payne is all you could ask for in a backup combo guard on a minimum deal….plays balls out and can light it up on any given night. No fear in that guy.
Shamet is not doing all that much, but he seems like a good guy to have in case of emergency, a pro’s pro.
“…it is worth asking if they are genuinely trying to enrich the discourse around here.”
Presume that’s a rhetorical, Noble, but the answer is of course not. I briefly noted the psychotic lap about the horrible Raptors beating the even more horrible Wiz and have blissfully skipped all his trolls since then. It’s a much better life I’m living…
After last night, for the first time this season, I really began to believe in this team. I think they’re beginning to gel. They’ve looked great since losing at home to the Wolves. Yeah, we’re doomers here most of the time but last night’s win was possibly the most solid of the year. Thirty two wins at the end of January is nothing to sneeze at.
I am in the intrigued by TJ camp primarily because he’s a 6’8″ wing, and one thing we are missing is bench length at the wing position. Precious is at best a 4 (although I agree he’s done well switching onto smaller wings), and everyone else is 6’4″ or less. We’re surviving with a bunch of little guys because of the energy they bring, but it’s not a great look for the playoffs.
But I know nothing about TJ in his current form. It’s the idea of him that intrigues.
The Raptors are a team playing very good basketball kind of out of nowhere with a player mentioned on KB as a potential Knick.
They’re an interesting team. One of their players was the most recent Eastern Conference Player of the Week. He’s my type of young, high-ceiling, long, two-way players with upside. They were just in MSG prior to going on this run.
If others don’t find them or that interesting, so be it. Doesn’t really seem to be worth all the meta complaining.
Interesting non-Knicks trade idea from Sam Vecenie here – specifically the idea of Portland trading Robert Williams and getting back just Jock Landale and two 2nd round picks.
I don’t really want to trade Mitch, but wouldn’t Portland getting Mitch plus two seconds be way better than Jock Landale?
Getting Time Lord would be probably the most impactful move we could make with Mitch’s contract.
(Not knowing the medicals, my preference is still to keep Mitch. I think the flexibility to play Mitch + Towns in a big lineup vs Towns + Precious or just Precious at C will be very useful come playoff time)
Z-Man, another data point on the pace question is that Brunson is always yelling at the ref for the ball when he’s taking it out under the basket. He clearly wants to get back out there as fast as possible.
“I am in the intrigued by TJ camp primarily because heâs a 6â8âł wing, and one thing we are missing is bench length at the wing position.”
I know he’s listed at 6’8″ but he appears/plays more like 6’6″-ish…whereas Precious (6’8″) and OG (6’7″) seem to play (and look) much bigger.
At the 2015 draft combine, he was measured at 6’7″ w/o shoes, and had a 6′ 10.5″ wingspan, so he should present like a biggish wing, but in watching him, he seems smaller. He also had a non-elite 35.5″ vertical back then, seems like he lost quite a bit off of that due to injury.
I just don’t know if he can keep up with the raw athleticism in today’s game, especially if you are looking for a bigger wing.
Honestly, Warren didn’t seem very athletic even in his 35-point G-League game two weeks ago. He looked kind of slow and plodding to me by contemporary NBA standards.
“Z-Man, another data point on the pace question is that Brunson is always yelling at the ref for the ball when heâs taking it out under the basket. He clearly wants to get back out there as fast as possible.”
My tentative take on this is that this is more about getting the ball inbounds and over the 8-second line vs. pressure than in doing SSoL-type stuff. But it’s definitely a valid observation.
Word, brother. We should be happy. This team is meeting expectations and getting better.
TJ has played fewer than 1,000 minutes since they shut the arena doors for covid. TS% of .544, USG under 20, OBPM of minus-2.4. Like many pro athletes he peaked at 26 and then fell off a cliff pretty much straight down all the way. Hard to see him re-climbing a material part of the cliff.
The Time Lord scratch-off ticket has fascinated me all year. I would hate to give up Mitch but if we got lucky with Williams’ health it would be a game changer.
Likewise on Time Lord. From the get-go.
“The Time Lord scratch-off ticket has fascinated me all year. I would hate to give up Mitch but if we got lucky with Williamsâ health it would be a game changer.”
But if we got lucky with Mitch’s health then we wouldn’t really need to get lucky with Time Lord’s health. If both were 100 percent, I’d rather have Mitch…….but your mileage may vary on that. đ
Time Lord is currently healthy, Doogie, so he has a huge leg up on Mitch.
And I think he might be a better fit with Towns than Mitch when they’re both healthy bc he’s more mobile and switchable.
I don’t want Leon to make that trade, but I wouldn’t be mad if he did.
Even though one of them has already played games this year and the other hasn’t, I trust Time Lord to stay healthy through the playoffs even less than I trust Mitch to be able to come back and offer at least solid backup minutes at C. The upside of Williams is higher, but the injury track record is somehow even worse than our guy’s. Given how great KAT is playing at C (even with the injured thumb messing with his outside shot), I’d rather have a B or B- backup whom we can trust to play most nights over a B+/A- guy who could become unavailable for long stretches without warning.
Turner for Precious, Mitch and Sims works in the Fanspo Trade Machine. I don’t think that’s viable in the real world, though. Precious could veto the trade, (signed to a one year deal with his Bird Rights) so he’d have to approve.
Bob, Precious waived that right when he signed the deal with us. At the time, everyone assumed he had been signed to be traded. But he’s played so well since he’s gotten healthy that the only way I would expect him to be moved is if it’s for a substantially better backup big.
I don’t know if Timelord is really healthy.
I say this because maybe you’re thinking he has missed the start of the season (30 games) but since coming back is healthy and played in the 17 games the Blazers had since game 30, right?
But that’s not the case. He came back in game 9, and has never played more than 3 consecutive games, which he did 3 times, he played 2 consecutive games 2 times, and 4 times he only played 1 game and was out right after.
I’m guessing this is the Blazers showcasing damaged goods with all the handle with care treatment that they can, to promote him and find a trade partner.
I mentioned this yesterday, but normally Jokic carves up every team in the NBA by hitting cutters over and over again for demoralizing dunks or layups. Really didn’t happen last night; maybe he was disinterested or something , but I think it’s more a credit to our defense.
The last 3 games we’re not giving up anything easy, and not a lot of groaning lately about “if you leave guys completely wide open, they will hit most of their shots”
It’s just a completely different look on the defensive end.
Is Timelord healthy? He’s played in 17 games this year and has played 7 out of Portland’s last 20 games. I’d rather just wait on Mitch.
Is Time Lord actually healthy though? He is still listed as âinactiveâ and âdid not dressâ a lot of the time. On a per-minute basis he is still a truly nasty player, but he has played fewer than 300 minutes on the season. He comes back for a flurry of games and then sits out a bunch of games. If this is as healthy as heâs going to get I might want to just hold out for Mitch and hope he can do a better job of staying on the floor once he is cleared to play.
Beat me to it, ThisChicanery
BPL, So Sims would be the Pacers starting center until Mitch is healthy? But if Mitch is healthy then why not just keep him? And leaving us just Huk to back up Towns and Turner does not seem good.
Also, even if the trade works in the trade machine, it will leave us two people short of the mandatory 14 players and we may not have space under the second apron to fill those slots.
I saw TL playing the other night and assumed he was healthy. If heâs already injured again then forget it. Alanâs point about in-and-out vs just out for a long time is a good one.
Translation: Jokic just said we are not in the mezzanine.
Duop Reath (also on Portland with Time Lord) might be more “gettable,” and would presumably come much cheaper. The Blazers aren’t playing him basically at all this year, for whatever reason, after what was largely regarded as a good rookie season with upside last year.
They’re fourth in Vegas and have been roughly there all year. Jokic is right there with market consensus (actually slightly lower if you take him literally.) As is KB, unless there’s been a sea change in perspective based on one game.
Fanduel is still at 13-1. Knicks are a longer shot now than they were at the beginning of the season by about 70%.
Fun games in and of themselves, not really major data points. If Leon acts as if they have more than the puncher’s chance everyone on KB agreed literally yesterday they have (*), he’s doing this wrong.
(*) As summarized by Z-Man, correctly.
What if thereâs like a concerted effort this year to bring Mitch along just for the playoffs. Like the guy we want is in there but they are using extreme caution to give his foot and ankle every moment they can. Clearly we can navigate the regular season without him and the injury needed more time and less Embiid last year.
Mitch doesnât have to learn to play for Thibs. KAT will be peazy cuz he is a better defender than Randle and a secondary ârim protectorâ. KAT and Mitch will end in a lot of Mitch dunks.
Add OG and Mikal to the cocktail and youâve got a Daiquiri of Death for 15 minutes a game. See where we are at come offseason and perhaps Mitch is a much better asset then cuz he is not one now.
If Mitch is done, which is possible, we need Precious because he can play with KAT. And very well for that matter. Chemistry is a big part of what we do around here.
Timelord for Mitch makes no sense he has the same problem Mitch does-he gets hurt all the time
“What if thereâs like a concerted effort this year to bring Mitch along just for the playoffs. Like the guy we want is in there but they are using extreme caution to give his foot and ankle every moment they can. Clearly we can navigate the regular season without him and the injury needed more time and less Embiid last year.
Mitch doesnât have to learn to play for Thibs. KAT will be peazy cuz he is a better defender than Randle and a secondary ârim protectorâ. KAT and Mitch will end in a lot of Mitch dunks.
Add OG and Mikal to the cocktail and youâve got a Daiquiri of Death for 15 minutes a game. See where we are at come offseason and perhaps Mitch is a much better asset then cuz he is not one now.
If Mitch is done, which is possible, we need Precious because he can play with KAT. And very well for that matter. Chemistry is a big part of what we do around here.”
Very, very cogent basketball analysis.
And if youâre ever going to get eye-testicle about valuations you gotta trust the guy whoâs like dripping sweat on the subject of you speculation. Unless you think that Jokic is fucking with everyone. He thinks the Knicks are contending(like really) for a title. Or heâs just trying to gas them and the fans to crush them cruelly in the finals.
What I like about Mitch, even though I think he will be traded, is that he does not wilt under playoff pressure. Thatâs a valuable attribute to trade away given where we are. So an equal value trade factoring in fit, health and availability such as TL needs to include this in the mix.
I think the Mitch thing is one where you just have be resigned to trusting medical and by extension Leon and the FO. They are pretty tight-lipped and it’s hard to know what is really going on with him, both presently and as a future prognosis for staying healthy.
I’m pretty sure he said we’re “a top 5 candidate” (in a league where there’s probably just 2 or 3 viable contenders).
I’m beginning to doubt Cleveland has anything more than a puncher’s chance, to be honest. My personal percentage pie looks like:
OKC – 55%
Boston – 35%
Cleveland – 7%
Denver – 2%
Then you have a 1% sliver for the field, with most of it going to us, Memphis, and Houston.
That’s just based on the 78 year history of the league, though, where almost every champion was either the best team in the league, a team that’s won it before, or a team that had a transcendent star who might be the best player in the world.
What I don’t like about TimeLord is that he has known cartilage issues which are not really healable. I would bet on foot bone/tendon/ligament over knee cartilage and stick with Mitch.
I know everyone here likes to play armchair GM and fool around with the trade machine, but I hope Edwards is wrong and the Knicks stand pat, unless it’s trading Shamet for a bigger Shamet.
Knees never get better.
I do think there is a chance Mitch is ready but they’re being super cautious and are just saving him for the stretch run and playoffs. Thibs said he is a lot lighter. So I would assume he would need a month of regular season games to get ready for the playoffs. I could see them waiting till right before or after the break.
I know people have said these mezzanine games ultimately don’t mean anything because none of them are OKC, Boston or Cleveland. But I do think there are some good signs for the team with this stretch.
Home Court – up until this stretch, we had the same home win-loss record as we did away. And we’ve had some not great home losses. These games are showing us that we can beat good teams at home and that the home court maybe does give us a boost.
Rest helps – we have days off between games in the playoffs. We’re seeing how that helps us.
Beating Denver – they are not title favorites in the West, obviously, but they have the best player in the world and are long shots. So we know we can beat them in a series.
The Houston game will be the most important one in these stretch of games because they are probably the most likely to get to the finals outside of OKC. They also present specific match up issues for us. So it will be very interesting. If we beat them, I feel about as confident as I can feel about this team without us trouncing Boston or Cleveland.
Hub, love you long time brother but he said we’re the favorites and then backtracked to be political. He said what was on his mind after he coudn’t pass through our wings and didn’t analyze who the top 5 teams are and their percentages. He said it cause he recognizes the mental toughness of Brunson in that 3rd quarter after they went up 8. I’d say he knows the game better than all of us combined and better than any “analyst/insider talking head” on a TV screen.
I was interested in the quote, but it was phrased a little oddly so I went and listened to it. I did not get the sense your interpretation is correct. He clearly meant we are a real contender.
See https://youtu.be/pNyqSqhBEhM?si=xgTJHGCHu-SxOcTA
What I actually said was this upcoming stretch of basketball is not going to challenge my conviction about the 2025 playoffs. But these games mean a lot. Championship teams take years to develop and this is all part of building our championship DNA.
And FWIW I also predicted we’d beat Boston (next Saturday at the Garden). I think it’s going to be our breakthrough win of the regular season.
Spoiler alert – we’re going to curb stomp the Lakers Saturday, beat Houston Monday, take care of business against the Raptors, then blow out the Celtics.
It’s all about the rest. The defense is playing better because they’re not being ground into dust.
Yikes. Sounds like Scary Terry may have been scared of his bookie (or just wanted some more money).
https://www.wsj.com/sports/basketball/terry-rozier-illegal-betting-probe-nba-63a7170b
No smoking gunâŠbut leaving a game with an unspecified foot injury after unusual betting activity on unders is a hell of a look.
NO MEZZANINE! DEAL WITH IT!
The way I see it:
-Boston is the clear #1…they are bored and coasting.
-OKC is the clear #2 but if and only if Chet comes back healthy. If not, they are still #2-ish but much more vulnerable.
-Without a healthy Chet, it’s a toss-up between the Cavs, Knicks, Mavs with a healthy Luka, Nuggets, and maybe the Rockets.
-Indiana, Milwaukee, Sixers, Clippers and Grizzlies are all capable of surprising
-Lakers, Suns, Wolves, and Warriors are all in decline.
I just said the trade works in the machine, I didn’t give it a big thumbs up. Although, I might.
Turner provides the rim protection of Mitch with far superior offense and team spacing. Less rebounding, though.
However the thing that scares me the most about Mitch is him being fouled in a close game with 90 seconds to go in the conference finals (or the first round).
This move gives us a really strong 8 deep rotation.
It’s “worse.” Even a regular season win over OKC, Boston, or Cleveland wouldn’t really “mean” that much. Did it mean anything when Toronto smoked Boston?
As someone posted, the 73-win Warriors lost almost all their losses to shitty teams. That pretty much standing alone turfs the meaning of any particular regular-season game.
I don’t really need to see the Knicks beat Boston in the regular season to know they could beat them in the playoffs. And they could. I’d feel more confident about it if they were coached by a better tactician and playoff tactician, but they still have a chance.
The grand sweep of the aggregate regular season obviously means a lot, but not any particular game or set of games. “January Knicks” didn’t mean much.
Houston game is poor match up for us without Mitch. Their size, toughness and rebounding are a poor match for us. Same as Denver last night and earlier this year when they had all their bigs.
Hubert, were you policy or Lincoln Douglas? Either way I imagine you were a terror. In the best way.
The Dream Team was not in the mezzanine! đ
Oh shit, Rozier being investigated for sports gambling and manipulating his performance. Part of the same gambling ring Jontay Porter was caught up in: https://www.wsj.com/sports/basketball/terry-rozier-illegal-betting-probe-nba-63a7170b
Absurd of the NBA and other leagues to bring gamblers this close to the actual basketball competition. Really fucking stupid.
OK, they’re not in the mezzanine.
This “Mezzanine” nonsense needs to be put to rest. Itâs nothing more than a failsafe way to downplay regular-season success and retroactively validate a pessimistic take when the team (probably) doesnât win a championshipâbecause, statistically, championships are improbable. Since no regular-season outcome can disprove the idea, I advise fellow Knickerbloggers to disengage entirely. Itâs an intransigent form of pessimism masquerading as serious, sobering analysis.
I know this will likely go in one ear and out the other for those who revel in rehashing this debate ad nauseam, but at this positive juncture in our season, a plea for reason seems worth making.
You got your admission, but it’s not what you say it is. It’s instead a must-know factor for roster building and action. “Mezz” teams should proceed one way; purgatorial teams another; rebuilding teams another; real contenders another, etc.
I’d lose the “you’re just trying to sound right and make yourself sound smart” stuff. Things start going haywire from there.
Says the guy who brought it up THREE TIMES today!
It’s pseudoscientific drivel that can neither be proven nor disproven dressed up as serious analysis. You outed the monkey logic driving the Mezzanine discourse when you say that regular season success against the better teams in the NBA “won’t mean much.” If this is true, then there’s no point even raising the issue since it cannot be falsified (we win), only validated when we don’t win.
Good day, sir!
Spare me the tu quoque fallacies. I brought it up because I thought it was a serious point. This was before you all but admitted that this nonsensical standard can’t even be disproven in the regular season.
Good day, sir!
You brought it up three times because you “revel in rehashing this debate ad nauseam”. I ignored you because I don’t.
I said good-day!
For me, the term mezzanine has become kind of an inside joke on this blog anyways, so I’m fine treating it as such.
We’re a really good team. Probably the best in the league outside of the clear top 3 of Cleveland, Boston and OKC. 2 of those 3 teams haven’t won it all yet so maybe they have mezzanine seats but have snuck down to courtside and will be kicked back up to the mezzanine when the Knicks, the real ticket holders, show up late and the usher tells them to get out of those seats.
Hubie, I’m having trouble reconciling your conviction that we’re a lock to go on an 11-game win streak in which we shit all over the class of the NBA but still have under 1% championship equity.
If this streak comes to pass we’re probably around 7-8 SRS by the end of it. 7 SRS is better than the majority of NBA champions over the last 45 years. 8 SRS is better than 70% of them. Another posted highlighted that we’re top 6 on both offense and defense since December 1, which metrics would likely only improve by the end of our streak, so the ‘unbalanced teams are worse than their SRS’ thing would have lost a lot of steam.
At that point even I would be excited about us being serious contenders with well over 10% championship equity. For the record I don’t think you’re right that we’ll beat all of HOU, TOR, BOS, or IND in our upcoming games, but if we did, it wouldn’t be rational to say we aren’t a real contender.
It won’t.
TL:DR:
Q. Where do the Knicks stand today?
A. In my opinion and by common consensus, including a lot of people on Knickerblogger, a very good team with a longshot chance of going a long way in the playoffs. Not on par with the very best, true contenders.
Q. Why do you/they say they aren’t on that par?
A. Because their players aren’t good enough.
Q. How do they get to that top tier level and get on par?
A. Get better players.
They had 10% championship equity (+725) on Opening Night and for several weeks thereafter. The regular season has seen slippage, not improvement, in that metric.
Pretty sure that’s a feature not a bug
This is a hypothetical in which we win the next six games convincingly against fairly strong opposition, which would likely bring sentiment to where it was at the beginning of the season or higher especially if CLE, who are 3-5 in the last 3 weeks, continues to trend down.
Such a streak would most likely put us in the 2 seed ahead of BOS as well.
Reminder that the resulting 7-8 SRS would be the best mark in our history by quite a bit.
If you ask me – these are the contender tiers:
Tier 1 -> OKC, Boston
Tier 2 -> Knicks, Dallas, Cleveland
Tier 3 – > Houston
Tier 4 -> Denver, Memphis, Milwaukee
I do think Houston is very good but they get dropped down for the same reasons Denver and Memphis do — their road to the Finals is going to be much tougher than if they were in the eastern conference.
In the current state of things — the 1/8 matchup in the west would be OKC and Dallas. I’m not even sure we would be surprised if a healthy Dallas team was able to take down OKC like they did last year.
I think Dallas is a really good team – despite Luka playing less than half their games they are 7th in offense and 11th on defense – they are really good.
I remain unsold on Cleveland. Unless Kenny Atkinson is the greatest shooting coach on the planet, their 3P% has to come down to earth. They’ve got several players shooting their career best from 3 (like Caris Levert shootng 42% when his lengthy career average is 34.6%) Their defense has also cratered a bit recently, although it is that part of the season when players are looking forward to the ASB.
Pags, I generally think there are a lot less teams that can actually win the title in a given year than people presume.
I distributed 90% probability to Boston and OKC. I think most experts would have those teams at 50% and then distribute greater odds to the rest of the league. I think they’re wrong.
History tells us it is extremely likely that either Boston or OKC wins the title this year. It also tells us Denver has a puncher’s chance. Cleveland’s chances are dwindling; in fact I probably overrated them.
Surprises tend to happen only when the traditional historical indicators are not present. This is not one of those years.
Given that repeating winners is a rare occurrence lately, I’d say you are wrong.
Iserp, your statement indicates you didn’t understand anything I said.
Sorry, but your probabilities are absurd. OKC having a 55% chance of winning a title means they have a 100% chance of making it to the Finals. You actually don’t think there’s any chance that OKC could lose to Denver/LAL in the 2nd round? Or Houston/Memphis in the WCF? Hell, they couldn’t lose to Phoenix/Dallas in the 1st round?
And even 10% isnât really contention; that was just accepted to make the point about the real regular season movement of the consensus championship equity.
It is not all that interesting to me how poorly we played in November or how well we played in December. I’ve been pretty consistent in saying that a) we will not be able to judge this mix until the playoffs, and b) this 30-game stretch will be very telling but not enough to invalidate (a).
What we CAN definitively say is that the Knicks are playing their best basketball of the season right now, and that nothing that they are doing seems unsustainable. They waxed the Kings, murdered the Grizzlies, and beat the Nuggets decisively. They won all three games in similar fashion, without any outlier performances from anyone, or any weird 3pt variance luck.
With somewhat less conviction, we can confidently say that this version of the Knicks playing the way they are can beat any team in a 7-game series without an inordinate (but against certain teams, likely at least some) luck.
The preponderance of posters here did not believe that was possible during the offseason of 2022. They were at least partially out on Leon and Thibs, and totally out on Randle and RJ. Now that the roster has been totally transformed, most have come around to being pleasantly surprised by the current product on the floor and feel that we are, in fact, a legit contender (not a favorite, but reasonably in the mix.) But nothing about playoff fortunes can be proven, or even reasonably predicted beyond a lightly educated guess.
The Brooklyn Nets were a toenail away from a possible championship. They never sniffed one again.
The Toronto Raptors were a lucky bounce away from being eliminated by the Sixers. They have been in decline ever since.
Very few folks had the Mavs in the finals last year, or the Heat in 2023.
This is “enjoy the ride” time because for the first time in many years, any outcome, including a championship, is reasonably in play. We aren’t a juggernaut or a dynasty in the making, but we ain’t chopped liver either.
Wow. This explains a lot.
Hey, um, why don’t you guys talk about the Knicks instead of attacking my esoteric method for assigning probabilities every day?
11% however…
While I agree Hubie’s probabilities are absurd, why does this necessarily follow?
Maybe he thinks OKC beats the ECF winner 100% of the time but only makes the finals 55% of the time.
Assume OKC defeats the East finalist 100% of the time.
Purgatory, mezzanine, king mezzanine, contender, likely finalist. Argue what each means to make sure you are right with the widest possible outcome. Wouldnât it be better to have a midseason poll to get a second shot at total wins and also include playoff record? Might shut some people up for our stretch run
wish there was a visual of the poster speaking their post…with a timer somewhere to be seen…
particularly for today, just to see who would get short of breath first…
hard work being of entertainment value to others, huh…
okay, take a few deep breaths, maybe get up and stretch a little…clear your heads for half a second – and back at it…
Wow…how about someone say something nice about Thibs today?
Jokiq said that the Knicks are well coached and they all know exactly what to do on both sides of the ball when playing in halfcourt.
Thought it was a valuable obeservation coming from a certified butcher with a surgeon level precision that slices defenses up better than anyone in the world right now.
It would definitely be me. I have my 2nd upper respiratory infection of 2025 already.
in miriam webster next to “contention” it says “to be in” ….must be greater than 10%…
Historically this has been true. I’m not so sure it’s going to continue to be true, for one reason: 3 pointers.
There is a lot more variance in the game than there used to be. More and more, the sport is becoming a contest of who can hit the most three pointers. It’s a volatile stat. We haven’t really seen it yet, but I would bet that at some point in the near future we’ll see a team win a title that wasn’t “supposed” to win a title, because they went on some insane heater with 3 pointers, and their opponents went cold. Sooner or later some janky 6 seed is gonna go on a run for like 15 games where they hit a shit ton of threes and they knock off some better teams.
I can see a future where the NBA is more like MLB, where the best team wins often, but not always.
I fucking loooooooooooove chopped liver. Jesus. I love it. My mom used to grate egg whites and yolks separately and then pattern the top with a stencil. She made the best chopped liver. Canât do Katzâs in the city anymore because that place is nuts but when I did I would always point out where harry met sally to whomever had to suffer me that day and then get half pastrami and half chopped liver on rye. Always get the fattier pastrami. They did open the offshoot joint at the Atlantic mall but no chopped liver there. The pastrami is the pastrami. Fuck yeah. I was getting pretty great pastrami at Moes on Flatbush and Izzyâs bbq up the street but Katzâs is my jam. Now I gotta make my own chopped liver. Hereâs to you mom.
I really liked that the issue of the minutes being played by the team’s starters became a constant talking point during recent player/coach interviews…
I don’t know, had thibs not constantly beat his starters with a minutes riding crop – perhaps instead of 16 over, we’re only 8 or 10 games over .500…
if we maintain an expanded rotation (with shamet seemingly hanging on by the skin of his chin), that could make a huge difference for our performance in late 4th quarter situations…
still would like to see OG get a day off, sometime this season…
I think we HAVE actually seen the inverse, which was that Rockets team that suddenly went cold and then had no chance of advancing in the playoffs despite their dominance
ouch, this chicanery, breathing stuff is really important, kind of critical…take real careful care of yourself…
i hope i’m not being rude for asking, is this a recent issue, or something that’s challenged you in the past?
The thing is, JK, anything erratic has trouble staying erratic one way for too long.
Frank, Iâm sorry but I donât buy your playoff tiers. Cleveland is clearly top tier. They werenât bad last year but had injuries which they donât have this year. They should be good and are. Itâs not just their record, theyâve done well against other top teams this year. Houston is also good and I donât see that the playoff grind will be so much more difficult there than in the East. The East has more terrible teams than the West, and the eighth seed will be better there, but thatâs not a big difference since eighth seeds usually get eliminated aged quickly. Of the nine team you list, four LD are eastern and five are western, which is pretty even.
Now you are disappointing the Bloody-nine
MIA did this to make the finals in 2023, the year they upset us. 27th in 3FG% in the season, 1st in the playoffs.
Shot a cool 45% in the first round to knock out the 1st seed Bucks in 5.
Regarding JK’s point, I largely agree but think the NBA is already addressing this trend in an indirect way. It seems like a lot more contact is being allowed on defense inside the arc, making it less likely that a driver not doubled because a help defender doesn’t hedge will score or go to the line. Things like the transition take foul rule have allowed for more non-3’s. Defenses have become more long-wing oriented. Although it’s only a marginal decline, it seems like even though 3PAr’s are up, league average 3pt% is down, yet eFG% has stabilized.
Right, so extrapolate this to a scenario where both the Celtics and OKC get knocked off somewhere along the way by teams that go on even brief 3-point heaters.
Now you’re left with a bunch of “puncher’s chance” teams that have way more than a puncher’s chance.
And in which case these regular season games would “mean” even less as any kind of meaningful guide as to what’s to come.
Yup. This is pretty much how DAL (2.32 SRS, 13th in 3FG%) knocked off the far superior OKC (7.36 SRS, 1st in 3FG%) last season.
They shot .397 in the series while OKC shot .335. Interestingly, they took the exact same number of 3FGA, but DAL got 45 more points out of them. The overall point differential for the series? Zero.
I don’t think this means DAL was secretly better than their SRS while OKC was secretly much worse. Luck matters in small sample sizes, a lot. Even a GOAT-level team like OKC could run into some bad luck and lose to a team that is merely pretty good. Injuries are also a thing.
Supposing a team like LAC runs solar hot and knocks out OKC and we win the 2nd round vs. a Porzingis-less BOS, we might have 30%+ ring equity.
It’s a lot better to be dealt AA than 65s even though there are many flops where AA has 0 equity. The regular season is an indicator of our starting hand.
Which is also why I think we have a decent chance if our new defense is for real. The Mikal acquisition isn’t just for his 3-and-D; he’s a great midrange scorer, with the shot profile of what the defense is willing to concede in the playoffs. Same for Brunson, obviously. And KAT presents his own challenges. Both Hart and OG are highly dependent on others to create, but both cut well and often and Hart is a very good secondary facilitator.
TL,dr: we’re built for the playoffs.
Maybe even more, but with that said let’s remember that the Vegas odds fully account for that possible scenario (and others like it).
It is interesting to see how close eFG% is for a particular team’s 2’s vs 3’s relative to their 3PAr. For the 7 teams with the highest current SRS, here are their 3PAr, 2pt eFG%, 3pt eFG%. total eFG%, TS%, and (TS% – eFG)
OKC: 41.8%, .556, .533, .546, .579 (+33)
CLE: 45.7%, .583, .590, .586, .614 (+28)
BOS: 53.5%, .563, .548, .555, .586 (+31)
MEM: 40.7%, .563, .561, .562, .594 (+32)
HOU: 38.4%, .517, .513, .516, .550 (+34)
NYK: 39.5%, .571, .569, .570, .602 (+32)
DEN: 34.4%, .568, .570, .569, .600.(+31)
I was surprised to see that the eFGs between 2’s and 3’s was so close….maybe it’s because teams don’t take long 2’s much any more…and that BOS actually had a higher eFG% on 2’s than 3’s, suggesting that maybe they need to shift their shot profile. Beyond that, there doesn’t seem to be much correlation between any of these elements.
I agree they do, it’s Hubie’s odds that don’t.
Lord of the Loge
I like it đ„ž
wait, I thought vegas odds were intended to act as an enticement to generate gambling revenue…
did something change…
You said it yourself: “we haven’t seen it yet.” I don’t think that means it’s coming. It’s really hard to sustain abnormal 3 pt shooting for a long period.
Right now we have a team with an SRS over 11. We also have a defending champ who had an SRS of 10.75 last year and is practically resting this whole season.
I think the collective odds of these two teams is being vastly underestimated by the public. There have been plenty of surprises in the NBA, but not in this kind of environment.
“Right, so extrapolate this to a scenario where both the Celtics and OKC get knocked off somewhere along the way by teams that go on even brief 3-point heaters.”
I think there’s lots of ways a team can get knocked off, where 3pt variance gets cited but masks underlying issues. For example, Mazzulla was very stubborn and refused to cover shooters like Caleb Martin until it was too late, and still might have lived to see another day if Jayson Tatum didn’t crunch his ankle in the opening minutes of game 7.
Suffice it to say, I don’t think it is as likely that a team wins by being hot than a team loses by being ice cold (I’m looking at you, D’Antoni Rockets!). The Celts are playing in a way that seems to depend on at least reasonable shooting from 3, and if they cool off at an inopportune time, which is possible with streaky guys like Brown and Jrue, and to a lesser degree, Tatum…I could see them having a hard time adjusting on the fly.
Except that you don’t need to sustain 3-point shooting for that long. All that needs to happen is for the “best” teams to get knocked off. Let’s say some schmuck team goes on a heater and knocks out the Celtics in round one. Now the Knicks play the schmuck team in round two. The schmuck team regresses to the mean. Knicks beat the schmuck team.
In the West, a similar schmuck team knocks off the Thunder, so now it’s the other mezzanine teams battling it out for the slot in the Finals.
Nobody has had to go on a sustained three-point heater, yet the big favorites are knocked out, and the presumed “mezzanine” teams are battling it out for the chip.
Nope! You nailed it, geo.
I guess this already has happened in 2023 with the Heat. But that was an environment that invited surprises. The top seeded Bucks were a simple 3.6 SRS team. Then they played us, a 2.99 SRS 4 seed.
The Thunder are historically dominant. The Celtics are a sleepwalking version of a team that was historically dominant a year ago. I think they’re both beyond the reach of 3 pt variance. But we’ll see.
I think it’s much more interesting to talk about how great we look right now and what that means for the future. A year from now, we might be the team with a 10+ SRS.
The Heat did the same thing to the Bubble Bucks, who were a vastly better team than Miami
Nobody has won a championship with an SRS lower than ours since the 3 consecutive seasons before last season. We’re fucked.
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