From Woj:
New York Knicks guard RJ Barrett is finalizing a four-year rookie extension that could be worth up to $120 million, his agent Bill Duffy of BDA Sports and WME Sports told ESPN on Monday, complicating the franchise’s offseason trade pursuit of Utah Jazz All-Star Donovan Mitchell.
Barrett’s deal — which makes him the youngest $100 million player in Knicks history at 22 years old — ends several weeks of trade discussions for Mitchell between New York and Utah, and forces the two organizations, if they choose, to start over talks with significantly different considerations because of the “Poison Pill” provision now in Barrett’s deal.
New York president of basketball operations Leon Rose set a Monday night deadline with Utah to reach an agreement on a trade for Mitchell — or the Knicks would commit to the Barrett extension, sources said.
While the Jazz-Knicks trade talks intensified and the gap on deal points that included Barrett in the package tightened over the weekend and into Monday, there remained a gulf on reaching a trade for Mitchell, sources said. Once the Knicks and Jazz exhausted discussions on Monday night, Rose and Duffy finalized the extension eligible to players out of the 2019 NBA draft class.
Wow, so apparently it really WAS going to be RJ going to Utah in the Mitchell deal had it occurred. Crazy.
Anyhow, this is less than the MAX max, and more than RJ probably “earned,” but whatever, he’s 22, and it’s really just 4/$100 plus $20 million in incentives that if he hits them, this deal will easily be worth it (it will be a discount if he hits those incentives, as we’re talking like All-NBA appearances and stuff like that). It’s not really much of a discount, but it also isn’t a crazy overpay.
Basically, he’s either going to improve or he’s not. If he improves, the money is totally fine. If he doesn’t, then even 4 years/$80 million would have been an overpay, ya know? I think the bet makes sense for the current NBA where you have to often bet on guys before they’re fully formed as players.
Like a lot of Leon Rose’s deals, it’s fine…in a vacuum. Overall, this is a lot of money locked in long term to a team that doesn’t look that good. But I assume more moves are forthcoming (I assume)!
33 replies on “ESPN.com: RJ Barrett Receives 4-Year Contract Extension”
Suck it, Danny, my boy.
DRed, this is so nice to hear. Ainge deserves to be treated this way, and it sounds like Rose had a maximum price in mind that he would pay for Mitchell, and really meant it. It’s so different from some other Knicks’ front offices.
It’s also interesting that Utah was very interested in Barrett. Ainge has shown good player judgements in the past and if he likes Barrett, that’s a nice endorsement.
nice of danny to have woj report the knicks can still get mitchell if we give them a ton of picks while there are still no other teams that can offer anything substantial for Donovan
I wouldn’t put any weight on an RJ extension derailing a Mitchell trade because I think it was extremely unlikely Rose was going to include him in a deal unless Ainge lowered the number of picks substantially.
However, I believe it’s quite possible Rose used a possible trade to Utah as leverage in negotiations with RJ’s agent. Basically he told him, “Take less than the max or we might have to trade you to UTAH! That’s right! UTAH!!!!!”
We can debate RJ’s contract when it becomes official, but I think Rose is doing a very good job so far dealing with our players and Ainge. Just don’t blow it now!
From last thread:
Knicks can do a decreasing deal that’s $120M. I have his 1st year salary at $33M based on the max 1st year for his extension (never sure which site has this accurate though). At 5% decrease per year he’s a bit over $122M. (It can go up to 8%, I believe, but then the total is too low)
Final year would be $28M. May not be bad with cap jump if RJ can get to Wiggins level… if…
this off-season is working out pretty okay so far…no championship level moves, but, sure seems like we’re moving forward in the right direction…
Really excited in the direction of this team. Any time you have the opportunity to lock up the core of a 37 win team you have to do it. And the upside of an incredibly inefficient volume scooter who can’t finish at the rim, shoot 3s, shoot FTs, setup teammates, or play high-end defense is incalculable; and to do it a year before it’s necessary, just like with Randle, truly speaks to our front office’s skill.
I woke up randomly at 3AM and checked my phone, saw that this deal went down. I think it’s a reasonable risk/reward compromise. RJ is 22 and has smarts, a great work ethic (I think) and plays both ends of the floor. This deal is 25-30% less than the rookie max extension with one fewer year. It’s roughly in the same realm as, say, the John Collins deal, and is a break from the past in terms of putting the Charlie Ward curse behind us.
We have to remember that if RJ actually “earned” this contract with his play on the floor, he wouldn’t have settled for it. It’s a good faith deal. My guess is that if he was a RFA he would have been offered at least 4years/$20-25AAV, which is kind of what this boils down to.
I know that there’s guys like vincoug who would rather have waited until the end of the season or have traded him for his “perceived” value, and it’s a fair position. However, this team needs some stability right now. They still have only 5 players (RJ, Mitch, Brunson, Hart and Sims) guaranteed to be on the roster opening day, and that’s not a good way to go into training camp.
“However, I believe it’s quite possible Rose used a possible trade to Utah as leverage in negotiations with RJ’s agent. Basically he told him, “Take less than the max or we might have to trade you to UTAH! That’s right! UTAH!!!!!””
You’re late to the party, strat, I suggested this last week.
Furthermore, I think this is a vote of confidence in the theory that our lack of high-level PG play and Randle’s funk were in part to blame for RJ’s inefficiency, as well as his increase in usage. I don’t think Brunson cures all of RJ’s woes but he should help.
To me, it’s really all about Thibs admitting that he should have been less stubborn about playing the young guys. We should continue to have a top-5 defense, but the slow-paced offense did not maximize the power of this rotation. This team needs to get out in transition more.
I see absolutely no value in stability, not on a team that’ll struggle to finish the season over .500.
Z-man, how can you say there are only five guys guaranteed to be on the roster opening day? Are you just going by whom it’s not legal to trade because they were signed so recently?
From Macri: “I was told by someone familiar with the negotiations that New York’s final offer included RJ, Evan Fournier, two unprotected picks from New York, and three of the protected first rounders from other teams.”
That is a more than reasonable offer, and Ainge should have taken it. Good job in holding firm, Leon!
BTW, wasn’t someone suggesting last week that Ainge had already taken Leon behind the woodshed? Would that someone care to revisit that take?
“Knick fan not in NJ
August 30, 2022 at 7:00 am
Z-man, how can you say there are only five guys guaranteed to be on the roster opening day? Are you just going by whom it’s not legal to trade because they were signed so recently?”
Yes, exactly.
And on the subject of point guard theory, everyone here seemed to believe that starting point guard was a really big hole in our roster Now our management went out and got a reasonable starting point guard. But wait, a lot of people are suddenly pessimistic that we will actually improve. This goes for the press too. Is Brunson really only a couple of games better than Burks?
Apparently he was in the last version of the deal. I suspect Ainge felt that he could then flip RJ for a good first rounder, thus making him more valuable than the other guys that Ainge might want to keep longterm (Obi, Grimes, IQ, etc.).
Z-man, I guess Ainge doesn’t have faith that two of our unprotected picks will really end up being nice picks ;-). That’s why he wanted more.
I agree with Brian here “I think the bet makes sense for the current NBA where you have to often bet on guys before they’re fully formed as players” and here “I assume more moves are forthcoming“.
On the latter, Randle has to go. RJ and Randle play the exact same game, we can’t have both on the court because that’s a 1+1=1 !!!
I was hoping for a 4/100M (25M AAV), so i’m not totally pleased with the deal, but let’s wait for the next moves to see if this makes sense. Z-Man is right, against the cap, 30M AAV next year (when the extension kicks in) is exactly the 25M AAV John Collins got last offseason.
“vincoug
August 30, 2022 at 6:57 am
I see absolutely no value in stability, not on a team that’ll struggle to finish the season over .500.”
This would be more true if there was even an iota of a chance that the Knicks would consider an all-out rebuild. However, re-branding the Knicks into an organization that is a) committed to winning, b) good to its players, and c) tough negotiators is vital to the hybrid strategy.
I think if we stay put right now, “struggle to finish over .500” is much closer to the teams floor than ceiling. Even with all that went wrong last year, the team still was 4 games below .500. You are essentially saying:
-RJ will not get much better, if at all
-Randle will not improve at all
-Brunson won’t make much difference
-Mitch being healthy from the start of the season won’t make much difference
-Rose will get injured again
-IQ, Obi and Grimes hit their ceilings
You are also ruling out the possibility of a Donovan Mitchell deal that makes sense, for example, Fournier, Grimes, and 5 picks including two unprotected, meaning that there would be plenty left over for another blockbuster in the future.
Yeah, obviously you need to take chances on players during the rookie deal but if you do have to make a bet like that, wouldn’t it be better to get another year’s worth of data before putting money down?
From a recent Fred Katz article:
“The Athletic conducted a poll, asking 16 officials in NBA front offices what they would deem a fair number for Barrett in an extension this summer or fall. Responses ranged from $15 million to $30 million a year. No one advocated for the Knicks to give him the max. Exactly half of the responses were a nice, clean four years, $100 million, making it by far the most common proposal from the polled executives.
One high-ranking exec, who said that $25 million a year was reasonable, compared Barrett’s extension negotiations to John Collins’ 2021 free agency. Collins wanted the max but ended up re-signing with the Hawks on a five-year, $125 million contract. The one difference? NBA rules state players can’t receive more than four years in a rookie-scale extension, the type Barrett would get, unless it’s a max. Thus, Barrett receives only four here.
Four seasons of $25 million salaries would be only $7 million a year less than Barrett’s starting salary on a max, but it sure feels far off when you add it all up. Factor in maximum year-to-year raises and the valuable fifth year, and four-for-100 is about $85 million fewer guaranteed.
One executive suggested $28 million a year for Barrett. Another said he would give the 21-year-old $30 million a year, a hair under the max, because the player has to compromise if he wants the security of an extension. That was the highest annual salary anyone in the poll submitted, though this exec made it clear he thought Barrett had max-player capabilities.”
So it seems that his contract is pretty close to the consensus 4years/$25 mill guaranteed from rival execs. And of course, if he qualifies for the higher numbers by making all-star, all-NBA/all-defense, that’s a huge win.
A seven for one deal for Donovan never really made sense for the Knicks. That’s too much risk. We saw it at the beginning of last decade. Melo, then good money after bad.
RJ is a basketball prodigy, thrust into the spotlight way too early in his career. The risk of giving him a contract based on his upside, rather than actual production so far, (which really is what contracts always are) is less significant now that we haven’t given up all our unprotected picks. If he plays under / over / to his # we still have insurance in the form of Quentin Grimes and Evan Fournier.
So, all in all, Fucken A, nice job Leon! Gosh I despise Ainge. I feel dirty we even talked to him. El diablo. Now maybe the trade market loosens a bit, so maybe another name emerges…
RJ hasn’t gotten much better in the last 3 seasons, what big leap is he making in year 4?
Randle’s 27, will turn 28 in November, and has been bad more often than he’s been good.
I’m really not sure how much difference Brunson is going to make, especially with this coach. We have 3 high usage guys who like to play in the paint, 2 of whom can’t shoot from 3, a coach who prefers his PG to drive to the basket, and we have a 3rd starter (Mitch) who can’t shoot either. What sort of offense are we gonna have next year?
Rose is always injured, it’s like the safest bet in sports that he’s going to miss 20+ games. And he’s about to turn 34.
Grimes and Obi barely play and, unless the FO forces Thibs’ hand, I don’t see that changing. Quickley’s going to be playing less after the Brunson signing.
“vincoug
August 30, 2022 at 7:18 am
Yeah, obviously you need to take chances on players during the rookie deal but if you do have to make a bet like that, wouldn’t it be better to get another year’s worth of data before putting money down?”
Oh, for sure. But circumstances are important too. For me, it would be different if RJ’s team was holding firm at the max or something close to it. Since they were able to meet at the league-wide consensus of RJ’s fair value, which balances performance and potential, it’s one less moving part. And I think that the fact that Ainge coveted RJ despite him being unsigned suggests that he shouldn’t be hard to move on this salary even if he goes all Wiggins on us. Put differently, you are basically gambling on the sweetener needed to move him if he stays at this level. I think it’s a very reasonable gamble on RJ’s character, work ethic, continued perceived value, and fan appeal.
“vincoug
August 30, 2022 at 7:27 am
RJ hasn’t gotten much better in the last 3 seasons, what big leap is he making in year 4?
Randle’s 27, will turn 28 in November, and has been bad more often than he’s been good.
I’m really not sure how much difference Brunson is going to make, especially with this coach. We have 3 high usage guys who like to play in the paint, 2 of whom can’t shoot from 3, a coach who prefers his PG to drive to the basket, and we have a 3rd starter (Mitch) who can’t shoot either. What sort of offense are we gonna have next year?
Rose is always injured, it’s like the safest bet in sports that he’s going to miss 20+ games. And he’s about to turn 34.
Grimes and Obi barely play and, unless the FO forces Thibs’ hand, I don’t see that changing. Quickley’s going to be playing less after the Brunson signing.”
This is a fair take on the team’s absolute floor. It assumes the worst possible outcome for every hanging question.
What’s the ceiling?
-RJ in fact makes a leap at age 23, e.g. shoots from 3 more like the way he did in 2020-21
-Randle improves back to the median for his last 5 years, 3 of which have been very good
-Rose gives us the same 50-60 games he played in 6 of his last 7 years, including in 2020-21 when he was the best player on the team
-Brunson makes a huge difference
-Hartenstein becomes one of the best backup Cs in the league
-IQ, Grimes and Obi play more and better
Multiple things can be true:
1. The Charlie Ward Curse is OVER. Done. Kaput.
2. I like what we know of RJ as a person/teammate/worker, and if he does improve, I will be happy to see him do that in a Knicks uniform, whereas it would have been a bummer for him to blossom elsewhere.
3. If he does not improve, this will be a bad contract. Not a crippling one, but one we may need to attach sweeteners to move later.
4. If he does improve and hits all the performance escalators, this will be a great contract for its duration, but could then create a Jaylen Brown situation for us where negotiating his next deal will be a problem. But that would be a VERY high-class problem for this stupid franchise.
Yeah sure we have been the worst team in the league at drafting really good star-type players, but yay for the Knicks finally signing a first-round pick, a great guy that might, we hope, end up being kinda good, even though he now has less incentive to improve his game. Great job guys!
Also, the Macri newsletter says the possibility of RJ being in a Mitchell package isn’t entirely dead:
Can you trade a player you just signed to an extension?
Yes, Z-Man, but it’s a “poison pill,” because you are trading him at his current salary rather than the one in the extension. Makes it very difficult. Also from the Macri newsletter (which in turn is analyzing this Bobby Marks video analysis of the RJ extension and its cap implications):
I think this is a savvy move.
It is undeniable that RJ is not worth $30mm based on his play, but he never would have signed for something he was actually worth.
I am high on Barrett’s potential to be a high quality supporting player (a la Mikal Bridges) once he inevitably accepts that role. I am also bullish on a complementary backcourt of Brunson and Barrett.
The downside here, of course, is that we have approximately $240mm committed to Julius Randle and RJ Barrett over the next 4 seasons, and they were both very bad last year. They are both redeemable, though, and we don’t have much choice but to let them redeem themselves. And the rising cap will mitigate the impact of that.
New thread!