Would you trade RJ Barrett for the #1 pick in this year’s draft?

Re: Jowles’ comment in the last thread, yeah, despite the fanfare, Mitchell is probably in the high-volume, low-efficiency max player category that we all wring hands over, but he’s definitely got more value than Frenchie McBricksalot.

I’m such a no on this one. I think LaMelo has only one skill, which might actually put him ahead of some of our other recent picks but there’s a huge, many-year improvement curve needed to get him to all-around actual basketball player, and we have enough of those “if they could only learn to…” on the bench already. I actually think Wiseman has real possible superstar potential, but also real bust potential, and I don’t feel good taking a swing on that. Especially because we actually have Mitch. I would so rather stay at 8 and hope Tyrese lands in our laps (and we don’t pass on him), as I think he has a real star (not superstar) ceiling that’s reachable, and not in 4-5 years. I just want a good player that doesn’t have a gaping hole (or multiple holes) in his play.

I would so rather stay at 8 and hope Tyrese lands in our laps (and we don’t pass on him), as I think he has a real star (not superstar) ceiling that’s reachable, and not in 4-5 years.

As I understand the question, this is not a trade up. It’s a one-for-one. So we’d have #1 and #8.

Pretty good chance at coming away from this draft with LaMelo/Hayes and Okongwu in this scenario. I’d trade RJ for that.

yes this is not a trade up! we get the 1 and keep the 8.

i think it’s sort of an interesting q that is as much about the philosophy of the draft as about rj in particular. first issue is the value barbell that has emerged as the entry age has declined. you get a lot of value from (1) a player who is good quickly, often erring toward older entrants or guys with skill combinations that tend to peak earlier or (2) stars who are so good they provide value even at the 25pct max level (and often also on rookie deals). but you get much less value on picking the next rudy gay or jerry stackhouse, who won’t have a ton of excess value from 19-22 and thereafter are as good a bet to be dear as cheap; guys you could pick up in free agency at similar prices.

I think something that gets lost in all of this, though, is team chemistry. Maybe I’m just a romantic and this is definitely fanboi type stuff, but I’d much rather watch a winning Knicks team in 4 or 5 years with RJ on it than the same winning Knicks team with some random free agent we pick up. And I think even if those 2 players are similar players, the team that kept its draft pick, developed him and watched him become the player he’s meant to become has a better chance of being good than the team that just randomly picks up Rudy Gay or whoever.

Once a team is good, then its one thing to plug in a FA you find to upgrade the team or fill a specific need and they fit into that role that is required. But I think its important for bad teams to develop their players and let those players learn how to play with each other. Its one of the reasons I voted no. Sure, maybe LaMelo will be better but RJ and Mitch and Knox and Frank now have a history playing together. Not saying I want to keep all those dudes, but since htey are young, I’d rather keep at least RJ and Mitch and add to that core with our #8 pick then take a step back by getting rid of RJ.

Also, RJ just needs to learn how to shoot. Its a big if but not insurmountable.

RJ was really, really bad last year. His baseline is fringe NBA player, and he has a long way to go to even sniff replacement level–there was a lot of scary stuff from him last season. That said, his talent is obvious, and there are quite a few scenarios where he breaks good rather than bad, I think. He’s genuinely good at getting to the line and is strong as hell. But his shooting needs to develop a lot and I don’t think it will–he was a horrific jump shooter last year iirc. And you can’t feast at the line when you shoot 60% from it, so RJ’s best offensive weapon is less effective than it should be. His passing was also not as good as advertised last year. I’m hoping some of his issues are positional, because like everyone else here it’s obvious to me that he should be at the 3, not the 2. I’m low on RJ but I don’t think he’s a bust.

I do think Edwards and LaMelo are straightforwardly better prospects, however (as are Hayes and Okongwu but I won’t argue those as much since they’re more controversial). LaMelo’s baseline is his brother with better offense and worse defense, but it’s gonna be almost impossible for LaMelo to be shockingly bad on defense because he’s 6’6 with a 6’10 wingspan guarding the point. He may be a terrible team defender but good enough on man coverage to cancel some of that out into a merely below average defender. And if he learns how to shoot, forget about it–he’s a bona fide star. Edwards is a more interesting case, but I think his range of outcomes is wider on the top end than RJ’s. It’s doubtful Edwards can be much worse than baseline RJ, since baseline RJ is fringe NBA player. But it’s pretty obvious that if Edwards leverages his insane athleticism and becomes a good shooter that he’s going to be very, very good, way better than RJ even if RJ makes good on his promise. So yes, I’d trade RJ for the #1 pick without blinking.

How I’d rank RJ coming out of Duke on my big board this year:
1. LaMelo
2. Okongwu
3. Hayes
4. Ant-Man
5. Hali/Avdija
6. RJ/Okoro/Vassell

RJ averaged 30 minutes a night and was 6th in total minutes for NBA rookies. The 5 people in front of him were all older than him. One of them was 22 and the other was 24. He averaged 30 minutes a night on a horrible team as an NBA rookie and it never seemed to bum him our or bring him down. I guess I’m higher on him than a lot of people. While shooting is a big thing for him to overcome, its the one main thing he was to work on to become a good player. Its not like he has 5 or 6 areas of glaring weakness. He has one. Its a big one for sure but with his demeanor and work ethic, along with better coaching I believe he can get there. His numbers in February were promising.

You’ll all see how good RJ Barrett is in short order.

RJ’s value on this board is generally “average” at best, and since fanbases always overvalue their players (see: Ntilikina, Frank), the odds aren’t really in RJ’s favor.

And I don’t care about roster construction. Dude got learn’t by Steve Freakin’ Nash and couldn’t even muster 3 assists a game?? I’m obviously going to root for him but am bracing for the worst.

As to the trade, I think there’s a very good chance that RJ would have been the consensus #1 pick in this draft, even as a freshman. If he entered the draft as is, I still think he is a candidate to be taken at #1. So it’s kind of a 50-50 move to me.

Never thought I’d see reference to an analytic philosopher on KB (other than maybe Robert Nozick given his famous Wilt Chamberlain example), but of course it’s pt who does it. Warms the cockles of my philosopher’s heart

I’ve never seen him play, but Edwards sounds like (and seems to have played a similar role in college as) Eric Gordon when he was coming out of Indiana. Is that off? (Gordon had a higher college ts% because of his ridiculously high FTr, which didn’t sustainably translate to the nba).

That said, I would trade RJ Barrett for Anthony Edwards because I can nickname him “Goose”, and that would make me happy.

Voted No. The deciding factor was basically cost.

There’s no one I desperately want in this draft at #1, except maybe Okongwu or Wiseman who both play Mitch’s position. As pessimistic as I am on RJ, he’s not notably worse than any of the top prospects in this year’s draft. Maybe I’d trade him for a better defender like Okoro, but Okoro’s flaws are well documented.

IDK, has no one invoked Gettier at some point to justify their critique of another poster’s claims of ‘knowing’ a player will work out? Or attempted to invoke Russell while justifying their rating system from the principles of logic?

I vaguely recall a discussion on Thomas Kuhn at some point.

Poorly understood analytic philosophy is a big part of what we do here.

It’s hard to answer a question like this without having a strong opinion on the quality and potential upside of the players near the top of the draft this year. Since we haven’t seen as much of them as we usually see, it’s more of a crapshoot than usual.

On the flip side, I think we know more about RJ now than we did before the draft last year.

Setting aside ridiculously bad models, I like him more now than I did when we drafted him. To be clear, that’s not necessarily a strong endorsement.

Going into last year EVERYONE knew his shot was going to be an issue. However, many people also thought defense and attitude could be problems. So there was a huge risk we were getting a an overhyped low level starter or bench player.

I think last year he showed that he’ll be able to defend at the NBA adequately and his attitude was great. And for all the panic over his shot and efficiency, he hit 32% of his 3s last year. The gap between where he is now and being adequate could come as soon as next year at age 20. That’s hardly a problem for long term thinkers like this group that usually wait until 21 before throwing in the towel and calling a kid a bust. smh lmao

His big problem last year was spacing and a skillset that requires him to get to the basket to be efficient. The lack of space was why Randle’s efficiency also plummeted.

RJ is fine. We have a very good player. We will simply have to wait 3-4 years to see if can become a major piece on contending team or more of a 3rd player.

edwards’ is some cross between markelle fultz and oladipo…. he’s not nearly as creative as fultz is but he’s more athletic in the mold of oladipo….

rj was never going to be a superduperstar… but he still has a chance to be a very good player…. and some call that a star even….

i think people are too tied up in the shooting numbers…. and things like TS are really poor fwd looking indicators…. if rj’s shooting numbers improve even a little bit those secondary numbers make rj into a pretty bonafide starter… even on something like low 50s TS.. and he only really needs something like a 70% ft and 45% from the field to achieve that….

it’s not guaranteed but that’s a pretty low bar….

Hell no to trading RJ for the #1 pick in one of the worst drafts ever. The kid just turned 20, is an incredibly hard worker and I don’t need to list all the great players who had shitty rookie seasons.

Can we just show a little patience for once and let the kid play a 2nd season?

Can we just show a little patience for once and let the kid play a 2nd season?

I mean, I don’t think it’s a sign of “impatience” to entertain the idea of trading 2019’s #3 pick for 2020’s #1 pick.

I consider myself “patient” with Barrett in that even though he was very unproductive overall, he showed enough potential that I’m willing to hold out hope and account for him going forward (contrast that to Ntilikina who is bad at almost everything and would require an amount of “improvement” that does not really happen to be worth accounting for). That seems like a decent test for “patience” in this context.

I don’t see why patience with a player should mean “valuing them more highly than a detached observer would.”

The question is insanely muddled by a combo of COVID NCAA cancellations and our very own 8th avenue freeze out. RJ and the 2020 freshmen entering the draft have had like 8 months to work on their bodies and games, and the scouts and FOs have vastly more info on where players currently stand. This could mean that the draftees are not the same players they would have been in June. This is especially true for Wiseman, who essentially pulled a Mitch and who might have been the most dominant player in the NCAA had he stayed. Not sure how hard he’s been working, but if he took the time off seriously, maybe he’s a less fragile Joel Embiid right from the get-go. Maybe Edwards is taking 1000 3’s a day and hitting them at 60%.

But the more I read what’s written here, the more I think the question can’t be answered without current info that scouts, coaches and GMs will be privy to. And the more I think about it, the more I could be talked into making the trade, if only for an extra shot at a superstar, which I don’t see RJ becoming.

If you look at Giannis stats and videos from his first years in the league and you clearly see the league’s future MVP then you are probably a Wizard.

thenoblefacehumper: Similarly, people aren’t down on Frank because his box score aggregators are bad. It’s, you know, his utter lack of NBA level skills.

This is way over the top. For one, he had a positive DBPM. He also had a positive WS48. His TS improved 80 points from the previous year. His ast/tov ratio was reasonably good for a guy averaging 5.2 assists per 36. His FTr went up 70 points and he shot 86% from the line (which bodes well for his 3-pt% improving if I recall).

I get your frustration with strat, but you can make your points and keep it real at the same time. Frank’s got along way to go, but not nearly as far as your comment above implies. He’s the same degree of improvement he made last year from being a very adequate rotation player.

Arbitrary endpoints alert: Barrett’s top 30 games in single-game USG% yielded a 5-25 mark for the Knicks. He was really, really bad this year.

I voted no on the trade. It’s a close question because the top players in last years draft were so much better than anyone in this year’s draft that RJ could easily have been number one this year. All the players in this years draft have flaws as big as RJ does. And I agree with Early Bird that having a number three’s salary instead of a number one’s is a good thing for us. I also trust Thibs enthusiasm for RJ and give weight to RJ’s work ethic and character.

RJ Barrett and Giannis – are they a good comparison? RJ has had basically every resource available to him to make him a great basketball player. Giannis definitely did not.

RJ also appears to have very little projection physically, to use a baseball term. The guy is already completely yoked. I don’t know, maybe there is another level there, maybe not, but Giannis was a stick figure when he came into this league.

I agree Frank at least has one carrying tool. His defense really is good. I don’t think a Pat Beverley type career is out of the question. Pat Beverley didn’t make the NBA till he was 24.

I already said I would trade RJ. I don’t really see the difference in expected value between him and all the guys a year younger than him. I don’t think the difference in timeline matters. Maybe the difference in salary matters a bit?

It’s a choice between the certainty that RJ was a terrible rook and the uncertainty created by the lack of data created by the pandemic for the 2020 draftees.

Still, I think I’d rather have Okongwu or the possible upside of Ball to be a real NBA pg.

My base case probably remains that RJ disappoints but that so does everyone else we might reasonably take other than my man from USC, who I have more shares of right now than is really appropriate given how little we saw of him.Crushing on him so hard he’ll end up the next Anthony Bennett.

No, and Lakers in 6.

I was never that high on RJB, but I’d like to see how his second year goes. Also, though I never wanted Knox, I wouldn’t take just a single 2nd rounder for him. If not a late first, just keep running him out there and see what happens with the new coach.

There have been so many variables clouding the ability to accurately assess RJ, Frank and Knox. If there’s two things we can look forward to, it’s a) stability of management and b) a coach/coaching staff who knows what he’s doing in terms of developing and assessing young players. We know Thibs is going to coach to win, and young players are going to be properly supported but are going to have to earn what they get. The biggest problem for RJ, Knox and Frank is that they have been spoiled on the one hand, and poorly utilized on the other. That’s the main reason I wouldn’t sell low on any of them.

RJ’s ceiling is Demar Derozan.

You’ve made this comparison before, always as a subtle dig or insult.

Demar Derozan is a 4 time all-star, 2 time all-nba player. He was the starter for a Raptors team that made 5 straight playoff appearances and even made the ECF.

You act like Demar Derozan is a shitty player and I guess he doesn’t fit your ideal player because he’s not a great 3 point shooter. But Demar Derozan was good enough to be the centerpiece in a trade for Kawhi Leonard.

If RJ turns into Demar Derozan and remains a Knick for the majority of his career, he’d be one of the best players in franchise history and would probably have his jersey retired.

Yeah, Derozan’s not an analytics-friendly player, and ideally he’d be the third-best player on your team, but even having peak Derozan as your second-best player will do you a lot of good. I’d take that outcome for RJ in a heartbeat.

It’s a sad commentary on the Knicks that Derozan probably might rate as one of our all time greats. He’s a good not great player though and you’ll struggle to ever get to the ECF if he is your max contract guy.

I do appreciate how productive he was with the most inefficient skill set possible.

The odds of a pick at #50 or later becoming an NBA rotation player have to be like 10% or lower. I don’t think that’s true for Knox. I would probably need something like our Clips pick. Maybe something in the 30’s.

The analysis doesn’t end here though. Knox has burned through two years of his rookie deal while giving us nothing. With a second rounder we get to reset that clock.

Also, even if we accept the 10% figure for a late pick I’m not sure about a player with Knox’s college profile + NBA body of work having a greater than 10% chance of being a rotation player.

Strat literally no one has even cited DeRozan’s box score aggregators in this thread nor has anyone ever said “Mitch’s WS48/BPM is X therefore he is the Yth best player in the NBA.” This is starting to feel like a hallucination.

I get your frustration with strat, but you can make your points and keep it real at the same time.

Don’t worry about me. I don’t waste the energy debating him anymore.

My bar on Frank is his becoming an impact defender that can disrupt the flow of the opposing team’s offense on occasion, make some plays on offense, play the right way, and add a more consistent 3 point shot so defenses can’t sag off him. That will make it easier for him to penetrate once in awhile to create more plays and keep teams from making adjustments that hurt other players like RJ, Randle, and Robinson (in the same way those guys hurt each other too).

A player like that can be a critical piece to championship. Not every player is going to be a high volume efficient scorer. That’s an essential but different role that we need to fill eventually.

I don’t care what idiotic brain damage level stupid models say about his value or that some people actually believe that trash.

He’s a plus defender now that show signs of being an impact defender at times when he’s 100% healthy and they aren’t forcing switches just to get him off their impact guards because he’s pestering them so much. He’s inching forward on offense, but has been hindered by injuries and lack of confidence (or maturity). However, he’s still on a glide path to become exactly the player I hope he becomes if he stays heathy and is given a chance to grow and mature.

If people want to argue about his contract value they should stop whining and listen to me when I say drafting these 18 years old kids is not all it’s cracked up to be unless you get extremely lucky. They often aren’t good values because most of these kids need a few years to be worth what you pay them right away and you often have to decide what to do with them before you know what their top is. That’s a separate issue from whether Frank will eventually be a contributing player on a very good team.

If the rumor that the Clips preferred him in a trade for Paul are true, he clearly has more market value than that even as is, justified or not.

I’ve been super hard on Knox because I wanted Mikal Bridges to be teamed with Frank and KP, but anyone that thinks they know what Knox’s top is at this point is overestimating their ability to see the future.

The first time I saw Knox live I thought I was looking at 14 year old kid that just hit puberty. He was extremely underdeveloped physically for an NBA player, it’s a marvel he didn’t get carried out on a stretcher once a month. He added some strength and weight last year and will probably do the same for next year. If the Clippers are interested it’s because they see he has some pretty good offensive skills for a guy his height but can’t execute well because he’s so wildly overmatched physically and hasn’t been taught well. The first year he was given a full green light (insanity) and last year he was buried. A good coaching staff will get him back on the right track. He’s going to be a good offensive player even if it’s off the bench. The more significant worry is his defense, He tried harder last year, but he has a long way to go.

I think RJ’s pedigree and the fact that he came into the league with an NBA ready body and also his demeanor on the court are actually reasons why some of his detractors are pessimistic about him. They think he is a finished product all ready. Forgetting that he is still super young and came into the league at 19 years old.

He could still grow another inch or two. He can still add muscle to his frame. He can still learn the nuances of the game and get better at his weaknesses despite the fact that he’s been playing for awhile now and has NBA pedigree. Kobe was far from a finished product his rookie year as well.

The Maple Mamba has tons of upside left to him.

Knox does have physical projection left. And his jumper is completely pure about 25% of the time. He also can sell a lot of roller skates to giraffes.

Re: RJ vs, DeRozan, sure, there are similarities but RJ seems to be a headier player and to have more upside as a leader…he has some Marcus Smart intangibles to his game, especially on D. I’m pretty sure he understands that he MUST improve his 3-point shot and FT% to max out his potential in today’s NBA. Now working at it doesn’t mean he will make the necessary improvement, but if not it won’t be for lack of trying. DeRozan never seemed to grasp or accept that to the degree he needed to.

Seth Partnow wrapped up his player ratings series today at the athletic

We tied for the fewest players making his list (basically top 125 players in the league) and he had Mitch only in the lowest tier of this, so by this metric at least we’re tied for the least talented roster in the NBA with Charlotte. Chastening. A very interesting series for anyone with a subscription.

The extra year of team control is the best reason to do this trade, but I voted no bc I think RJ is a better prospect than Edwards and Ball.

I’m inclined to cut RJ some slack because of how poorly he was deployed for so long by Fizdale. I may be the patron saint of making excuses for our prospects, but honestly how well do you think Anthony Edwards would perform next year if his coach asked him to be the point guard on a team with three bigs and a wing who can’t shoot? The equivalent misuse of Ball would be sticking him in corner to shoot 3’s.

Stein reporting that they’re now talking about starting the season on Christmas again. Makes sense under the logic that this season is going to be screwed up no matter what so you might as well do what you can to preserve the idea of a normal 21-22 season, but goodness that’s a quick turnaround. Christmas is only 9 weeks from today so that would put us only about 6 weeks out from training camp.

very good player, but nothing special

????????????

Then he starts creeping closer to a Doncic-type profile.

RJ will never have a single season as good as Doncic’s sophomore year. They look like they play a completely different game when the ball’s in their respective hands.

Doncic just got an All-NBA FIRST team selection during a season in which he turned 21. That’s just insane. Do we ever see Barrett making a third team? I don’t.

my other post got caught up in ‘moderation’ whatever that means….

i voted to keep rj… but i wouldn’t offer the deal but if it was offered to me i would take it….

edwards is #1 on my board and he’s a better prospect than rj was…. better balance around his box score numbers and has better ball skills….

rj’s year wasn’t good… but it wasn’t good in the same way that frank and knox’s rookie year was… it’s salvagable and the only real skill that they need to establish in their rookie year is to be able to create and finish easy opportunities while contributing in other areas…. rj did that…

efficiency doesn’t come until later….. and this occurs with just about every rookie… while you do want some modicum of efficiency… and he’s probably not going to have harden level of efficiency…. he doesn’t need to be harden either to be good to very good….

i had his projection somewhere between a jason richardon, richard jefferson and vince carter…. he’s in that neighborhood still but his sophomore year is going to be huge in determining his trajectory….

djphan:
and for the record…. frank and knox should be traded for anyone resembling nba ability…

there’s no upside left with those guys…..

I truly don’t get how you can come to that conclusion about two guys that are younger than Obi Toppin.

Trade RJ for the #1, then trade down. Phase 3 is wins.

Never tell me the rules

What djphan said. It’s not their lack of production, it’s the way they come to the lack of production. Namely, by being bad at almost everything.

Barrett was unproductive because he was wildly inefficient, but he demonstrated a penchant for getting to the line, rebounded well for a guard/wing, showed some playmaking ability, and was at least an average defender. It’s not impossible, or even particularly difficult, to see how he makes the leap to productive player.

Ntilikina and Knox on the other hand have not demonstrated that they have a framework to build on. “Get a lot better at almost everything” is not a realistic path to productivity.

People are missing that I’m not saying I have no hope for them because they’ve been bad NBA players–that’s not abnormal at their ages. Most successful NBA careers mirror a bad-to-good arc to some extent. I have no hope for them because they haven’t even given us a picture of what the “good” versions of them could look like.

We’ve gone through this exercise with Frank before: there’s almost no 3PT% you can give him that would make him a genuinely productive player because he’s also bad at all other aspects of scoring. If he’s a point guard, his AST% is bad. If he’s a shooting guard, his, well, shooting ability (and scoring ability more broadly) is bad.

As for Knox, it’s possible he can become an above average 3PT shooter but that on its own is probably not enough to be “rotation level” unless he becomes truly Novakian (not going to happen). There are guys on the waiver wire who can probably give you 37% or whatever from 3 while not offering anything else.

Recently i watched a video of Frank workout and having 10/11 3s in a row.
I’m not the same person anymore.

Bashing and mocking knicks players is a habbit most knicks fans have (including me) that always provides a sense of self-indulgence and false security via the action of accurate prognosis.
I just hope that Thibs changes that shitradition after years of unorthodox and “whatever” coaching and turns us into a serious team with Normal Looking and Stat Cooking Nba young projects.

thenoblefacehumper: Ntilikina and Knox on the other hand have not demonstrated that they have a framework to build on. “Get a lot better at almost everything” is not a realistic path to productivity.

This is simply false. Ntilikina would probably have been one of the best players in the NCAA last year with his current level of skill and would have undoubtably been a lottery pick in this draft if he came into the draft now rather than 2 years too early. This is less true about Knox…who may have been the same player as a sophomore and junior as he was as a freshman. The NBA game seems too fast for him thus far, and I agree that it may take a long time for that to change. Ntilikina has had a positive actual on/off numbers all three years, and last year the team was 4.8 points better per 100 possessions when he was on the court vs. off the court. Obviously some of that has to do with who he played with, but he certainly wasn’t killing the team or targeted by opponents when he was on the court.

The majority of NBA players were not in the NBA before age 21, much less played 3000 minutes by age 22, so there’s no way of knowing whether they would have been better than Frank had they been drafted at age 18. Take Fred VanVleet. He entered the league at age 22 and put up advanced numbers nearly identical to Frank’s in a whopping 294 minutes. What would he have done had he entered the NBA at age 19 and 20 and played 3000 minutes on a shitty team? We’ll never know because he sucked as a college freshman and no one would have even thought about drafting him. Same with Spencer Dinwiddie. TJ McConnell didn’t enter the league until age 23. Malcolm Brogdan age 24. The list goes on and on.

The proposition that Frank is hopeless at age 22 because he didn’t improve enough from age 19-21 is total conjecture, unless you have some magic way to account for every player who was not anywhere near the NBA until they were his current age. Unless you think those players consciously avoided the draft at age 18 because they didn’t want to become millionaires too soon.

djphan: i know we want to will frank into existence… but this is pretty hyperbolic for someone who said that frank wasn’t even a great pick….

I was waiting for someone else to comment on that gem…i almost spit my beer back into my glass…as Joey Biden would say “c’mon ma”….might want to put the bong down…

oh…i read it…and was purely reacting to the idea that frank nililikeeena would have been one of the best players in the ncaa this year…on what basis eggzacccly is that opinion formed?

More generally, it is pretty widely accepted that any NBA player who is not in the bottom 10 would likely crush it in the NCAA. The converse isn’t true, of course.

If you are intelligent enough, you would get that what I am saying is that it is highly likely that Ntilikina would have crushed it last year in the NCAA and been a sure lottery pick if he came out this year. That does NOT mean that he would have been a SMART pick or would be bound for NBA success…he’d be as much of a crap shoot as any of this year’s lottery picks, many of whom will not pan out. But he could also blossom into a very good NBA player, just like some of this year’s lottery picks would.

I don’t think he should be written off just because he entered the draft two years too young. If he was a rookie last year after a couple more years of seasoning in France or the NCAA, it seems reasonable to project that he would have put up at least the same numbers that he did, and the same folks who are writing him off now would be saying “hey, not bad for a rookie!”

This is simply false. Ntilikina would probably have been one of the best players in the NCAA last year with his current level of skill and would have undoubtably been a lottery pick in this draft if he came into the draft now rather than 2 years too early.

I’m just not seeing this at all. Dude is 22 years old already.

If he would have played NCAA ball he probably would have Felipe Lopez’ed himself into the second round.

This discussion does raise another grievance I have had with both the Knicks coaching/FO tandem and some Frankophiles here. I said over and over again during Frank’s first two years that he should have had played ample time in the G-League, sort of like Iggy did last year. Then we’d have a much less muddled picture of Frank as a prospect. Take Iggy….he played reasonable well down there, and most of us would agree that it’s a higher level of comp than the NCAA. Had Frank Felipe Lopez’d it down there, then we could say with more certainty that he was unlikely to make it in the NBA.

ok..mister “if you are intelligent enough” …i know I will not reach whatever heights you are at but…..lets go to Principles of Sound Reasoning 101…I think I took that my freshmen year…

Goes like this:

Frank N = Best player in NCAA as per zmon
Best player in NCAA = first coupla picks in the draft
Then it follows that any team with first couple of picks would happily swap that pick out for Frank ….uh….hmm…nope

Dear Frank,

Z-man, me, and Tarrytown Practice Facility Stan believe in you.

Don’t listen to these stat weirdos

djphan: so you see what Kevin Knox did at uk… and what he’s done in the nba….

and you still think that?

Here’s what I said about Knox:

Z-man: This is less true about Knox…who may have been the same player as a sophomore and junior as he was as a freshman. The NBA game seems too fast for him thus far, and I agree that it may take a long time for that to change.

Frank played MUCH better last year than Knox did. So we’re comparing apples to oranges. Be that as it may, Knox was a decent NCAA player (19 and 7 per 40 on decent efficiency, .133 WS40, 5.1BPM against top competition) as one of the youngest notable freshmen in a top conference. Not as good as SGA but certainly very good. Do you actually think he would have been a worse NCAA player as a 20yo junior??

I think you, pepper and sadly, JK47 are either trolling (c’mon JK) or oblivious to the huge chasm between the NCAA and the NBA. Just about any NBA player, even the shitty ones, would dominate against college competition, even in the best conferences. Even average G-League players would be stars in most conferences. It is almost a certainty that Frank would have dominated down there last year.

Also, let’s not overreact to what I’m saying. We know that being a dominant college player does not in any way guarantee success in the NBA. If you are a top-10 player at your position in any given year, the odds are well better than 50% that you will not make it in the NBA. Let’s take the 2015 draft, widely believed to be a deep and talented class at the time. Five years later, of the 46 NCAA players drafted, 7 never played a minute, 8 more played less than 1,000 minutes. Of the ones who played over 1,000 minutes, only 25 have positive cumulative VORP and only 8 have a positive career BPMs….all bigs except for DAR. Of those 8, only 4 were drafted in the lottery.

One player from that class was pick #15 Kelly Oubre, who JK seems pretty intrigued with, even though he sucked ass as bad a Frank as a 21yo in his second NBA season and continued to suck ass for 6000+ NBA minutes He has never posted a positive BPM, has a career VORP of 0.2, and topped out at a WS48 of .093 at age 24.

***he posted a positive WS48 in 1000 minutes the NBA this year, which very few NCAA guards would be able to do.***

Huh? Maybe my reading comprehension is off too. Lots of guards post ws48 in 1000 minutes, regardless of age. Do the names Shake Milton, Jalen Brunson, Trent jr, Aaron Holiday, Devonte Graham, Josh Okogie, Jevon Carter, Bruce Brown, and De’Anthony Melton mean anything? They were all picked outside the lottery LAST YEAR and have posted better career ws48s than Frank’s cherry picked “1000 mins”. His draft year has lots too. Like, dozens.

I thought you were saying that Frank would be drafted highly this year as a 22 year old because he has proven himself at the NBA level relative to others his age. And these guys were all drafted well outside the lottery, many of them as 22 year olds, and all of them playing better nba minutes than frank has.

Donnie Walsh:
I thought you were saying that Frank would be drafted highly this year as a 22 year old because he has proven himself at the NBA level relative to others his age. And these guys were all drafted well outside the lottery, many of them as 22 year olds, and all of them playing better nba minutes than frank has.

No, I’m saying that if frank played two years of college ball, he probably would have been drafted either in the lottery or somewhere high in the first round based on his wingspan, defense and “perception” of guard skills. And if he then went on to put up the numbers he did as a rookie, we’d be saying “hey, that’s pretty good for a rookie, kid has potential.” But since he was drafted so young and way too high and then not put in the G-League where he belonged, the KB crowd has soured on him prematurely, likely out of frustration with the poor decision to draft him when we did. I’m saying that purely objectively, it is too soon to write him off. Again, he’s still younger than most of the guys you are citing.

I am NOT saying that he SHOULD have been a lottery pick, or SHOULD be one this year. But freaky wingspans are intriguing to GMs and scouts, and players rise and fall in drafts every year just on the basis of wingspan.

Z-man: And if he then went on to put up the numbers he did as a rookie,

I mean if he put up his 21yo numbers as a 21yo rookie…

What a delightful new rivulet forming off of the How Good Is Frank River!

God bless young Frank. How is he not a 20-year vet at this point?

🙂

okay, mark me down for thinking frank would have been a top 20 pick after 2 seasons at a top college program…

am I the only one who remembers watching him disrupt opposing team offenses with his perimeter defense last season…along with mitch’s blocks, ol’ mister frank definitely brought energy with his defense…he’s learning to distribute (definitely doesn’t have a natural feel for passing or dribbling), and, his shot does not look broken…

the problem is his salary, which on our team we can afford…see if he further develops…figure out a decent cost to extend him…

my main concern with frank is his durability…maybe the knicks can help him figure that out…

If Frank doesn’t get drafted in the lottery next year based on his NBA skills applied to college level basketball, maybe he’ll get drafted 1-14 in the following year when his NBA skills will be displayed as a 24 years old college player. Did I get it right? If not please allow for another year, or decade to figure it out.

https://twitter.com/kaelinphoebe/status/1319851699050143745?s=21

In less contentious news, the idea of the NBA trying to start the season by Christmas would make a mess of the offseason. Would teams be more inclined to run it back with their 2019-20 rosters rather than make big moves when there will barely be any preseason to get the new pieces acclimated?

alsep, yeah the rushed off-season is crazy. Exciting as a Knicks fan, though, we might see preseason games in like 6 weeks!

Hubert: He has the skill set to have dominated the NCAA last season, but the mindset?

When he played against his age peers in the FIBA U18 tournament, he was aggressive enough to win tournament MVP. In fact, his supporters at draft time cited that accomplishment incessantly as evidence that he would be a great pick at #8.

Z-Man this ridiculous argument seems to boil down to Frank’s .037 2019-2020 WS48. It ignores some pretty crucial things:

1) The improvement in his WS48 boiled down to him lowering his already comically low usage and shooting .453 from 16<3, something that is not going to happen again. He didn't make any underlying improvements. He is basically the same Frank we saw as a rookie.

2) Ironically enough, you’re becoming the shining example of the kind of poster Strat pretends exists: someone who takes one look at a box score aggregator and makes a bold proclamation. Forget his -3.2 BPM (something a lot of god awful NCAA players could muster), forget a more nuanced look at his skillset, nope, his .037 WS48 means he would’ve been one of the best players in the NBA and would’ve been drafted in the lottery.

It’s such a ridiculous argument it’s hard to even know where to begin. I mean, would he have been better than Fred VanVleet in the NCAA? When FVV was Frank’s age in college, he posted a 16.8 PTS/40, 4.4 TRB/40, 7.6 AST/40, 2.4 STL/40 with a 10.2 BPM. He proceeded to go undrafted because teams (foolishly) held his age against him, yet Frank fuckin’ Ntilikina would go in the damn lottery?

Would he be better than Desmond Bane, who is Frank’s age and projected to go in the late first/early second?

If Frank were in the NCAA this year he’d be a low usage role player type who would probably go in the second round if he got drafted at all.

If I’m wrong feel free to throw it on my face, I’ll be here. I do not think Frank will ever be more than back of the rotation filler for bad teams, and very well may decide to go back to Europe sooner rather than later.

i think there is a meaningful weakness to the sliding doors approach. even if we assume arguendo frank would have been an ncaa stud prospect, we do have important additional information. if we offered scouts the chance to see how hali or toppin would have performed had they played in the nba for the last two years, they would drool like giuliani at a gymboree. this is bc development isn’t solely about aging, but also translation. dsj would probably still be taking souls in college but his nba career to date surely contains marginal information.

but i disagree with tnfh about frank’s path to productivity. i think if he was let us pray together able to shoot 37-38pct from three he’d be a productive nba player who could be in the rotation of a good team. if he stays in the low 30s he’s probably a goner.

but i disagree with tnfh about frank’s path to productivity. i think if he was let us pray together able to shoot 37-38pct from three he’d be a productive nba player who could be in the rotation of a good team.

At high enough volume I would agree, but my skepticism is rooted in the fact that he has to significantly increase his percentage and his volume.

His 3PA volume isn’t wildly low in a vacuum, but it’s definitely low for a player who in this scenario is relying on 3PT shots as his sole offensive skill.

thenoblefacehumper: No, he didn’t. He had 3 good games in a god damn U18 tournament. Other than that his European stats were very, very bad. Kevin Pelton’s model had him ranked 23rd, and even that was probably higher than it should’ve been because the model gave him a youth based boost.

The rest of his Euro stats were not against peers, they were against seasoned Euro pros.

ptmilo: development isn’t solely about aging, but also translation.

It can be either-or, or both.

ptmilo: i think if he was let us pray together able to shoot 37-38pct from three he’d be a productive nba player who could be in the rotation of a good team. if he stays in the low 30s he’s probably a goner.

I’ve been saying this since draft day. He’s much more of a 3-and-D small wing than a PG. He is certainly a plus defensive player who is particularly adept at blowing up the most common offensive scheme in the NBA today…the high PnR. He needs to fix one and only one thing for that role…his 3-pt shooting. And his strong FT% (improved every year and now well above average) suggests that his 3pt shooting will follow. Anything else he improves (rebounding, FTr, ast%, finishing at the rim, etc.) will be a bonus.

Knox is another story. Even if he improves offensively, he is such a defensive liability that it’s hard to visualize him being a plus player any time soon. He’d have to be like Enes Kanter-level efficient…

Seems like an interesting flyer…

https://www.sny.tv/articles/knicks-could-target-byu-s-yoeli-childs-in-second-round-of-2020-nba-draft

Do you really think he won’t have a more productive 22yo season than Fred VanVleet? Or that a Kelly Oubre Jr.-like 22yo season is out of reach?

I have no idea what the theory behind these particular comparisons is, and for all intents and purposes VanVleet did not have an age 22 year old season (294 minutes is not a “season”).

I do not think he will be particularly close to Oubre’s 22 year old season. Oubre was close to league average that season, which would be a colossal, probably unrealistic leap for Frank.

It remains a bit of a head-scratcher that a guy who was one of the best defensive guards in the association at 20 and 21 is somehow denominated a hopeless case with no chance. Never really computed, still doesn’t.

If only we had found someone willing to trade for Frank years ago when he still had value.

Looking forward to headlines of the 2024 as his second contract runs out: “young Knicks prospect Ntilikina on verge of turning corner, coaches say.”

And those dudes can rebound!

There’s another problem with Frank: his theoretical best position is 3-and-D small forward, but then there’s this:

Frank Ntilikina, career TRB%: 5.4

Not really ideal.

I get that we’re in the positionless era and the difference between small forward and shooting guard is becoming blurred, but still. That’s some shittay rebounding for a guy you’re expecting to play the 3 a lot of the time. He can’t play point guard as he has repeatedly demonstrated, so he’s… a shooting guard that doesn’t really shoot so great, never dunks, doesn’t get to the line and can’t finish at the rim?

This is why the comparison with Oubre really doesn’t work. Oubre gets a respectable amount of rebounds, can actually dunk the ball from time to time, always had at least some ability to get to the FT line and can play small forward credibly in the NBA. If Frank turns out to be a good comp for Oubre in a few years, I’ll be surprised.

It remains a bit of a head-scratcher that a guy who was one of the best defensive guards in the association at 20 and 21 is somehow a hopeless case with no chance. Never really computed, still doesn’t.

it’s pretty dumbfounding that people think that frank is one of the best defensive guards in the league….

this is fairy tale that people keep telling themselves about frank to justify playing time…. the evidence isn’t there….

Donnie Walsh:
***It remains a bit of a head-scratcher that a guy who was one of the best defensive guards in the association at 20 and 21 is somehow a hopeless case with no chance. Never really computed, still doesn’t.***

Are you still scratching your head about Stanley Johnson? Still perplexed by Michael Kidd-Gilchrist? Maybe this will help: defensive specialists that are useless on offense have no place in this league.

MKG has been injured during the last 2 seasons, and missed nearly the entire 2015-16 season due to multiple shoulder injuries, but beyond that he’s been a reasonably useful rotation player, despite one of the most comically broken J’s in the NBA. Terrible example.

Stanley Johnson has not improved a lick since coming into the NBA. Can that be the road that Frank is on? Sure,if Frank continues to post a sub-.500TS% and a sub-.300 3pt%, and his team is 8 points worse per 100 possessions with him on the floor vs. off, then yeah, write him off. But Stanley Johnson is only one possible outcome. Oubre is another. Caldwell-Pope is another. Rozier is another. There are lots of defensive guards/small wings who didn’t top out at age 21. We have no idea which way Frank will go next year, but surely Thibs will give him all the support he needs to improve.

ess-dog:
Oubre and Frank are very different offensive players. Frank had a 20% assist rate last season and a 16% turnover rate. Oubre’s at age 22? 6% and 9%.

I know everyone here thinks that they are smarter than nba coaches, but Frank is a point guard and maybe a “combo” guard. He’s much closer to Kris Dunn than Oubre.

Agreed. Frank is a point guard who can’t really play point guard. That alone puts a pretty hard ceiling on him.

JK47: Agreed. Frank is a point guard who can’t really play point guard. That alone puts a pretty hard ceiling on him.

Frank has been playing mainly PG but he is a 3-position defender and possibly 4 when he gets stronger. He is not going to get shorter or weaker. His future is most likely as a small wing with some guard skills who can rotate between the 1-2-3. That said, his ast/tov ratio (2.36:1) is actually very PG-like.

Three years in and Frank still basically stops in his tracks at even token ball pressure. And his low TS% isn’t exactly because of poor shot selection- he’s just a bad shooter who isn’t athletic or skilled enough to get better shots for himself. He wouldn’t have dominated in the NCAA because teams actually game plan for dominant players and his complete lack of ball skills would get exposed.

Right now Frank is a situational defensive player off of the bench- not a rotation player on a decent team. He’s a low motor point who gives you zero penetration, a two who can’t shoot, or a three who doesn’t rebound or run the wing on the break. And he’s been hurt for a decent chunk of all three years. He’s barely a league minimum guy.

And his low TS% isn’t exactly because of poor shot selection- he’s just a bad shooter who isn’t athletic or skilled enough to get better shots for himself.

This is why I brought up Oubre’s dunks and Frank’s lack thereof. Oubre had other ways to score other than perimeter shooting, he had offensive skills on which to build. It takes some talent to be able to consistently dunk a ball in the NBA. Talent that Frank does not possess.

“Dunks” is a proxy for “easy baskets.” Frank has no means of getting easy baskets.

Dang, I can’t wait til next season when Frank breaks both of Porzingis’ radius bones on a monster dunk because he’s so swole from working out with Jowles all summer.

He will serve all y’all a hot, steaming platter of crow.

***MKG has been injured during the last 2 seasons, and missed nearly the entire 2015-16 season due to multiple shoulder injuries, but beyond that he’s been a reasonably useful rotation player, despite one of the most comically broken J’s in the NBA. Terrible example.***

I think this is your scotch hangover talking. MKG’s contract coming off his rookie deal was terrible from day one, and it had nothing to do with his injuries. It had everything to do with his limitations on the offensive side of the court. Ntilikina getting an MKG like extension would be as bad for the Knicks as it was for the hornets. If you are advocating otherwise, you too are in your decline phase.

Donnie Walsh:
***MKG has been injured during the last 2 seasons, and missed nearly the entire 2015-16 season due to multiple shoulder injuries, but beyond that he’s been a reasonably useful rotation player, despite one of the most comically broken J’s in the NBA. Terrible example.***

I think this is your scotch hangover talking. MKG’s contract coming off his rookie deal was terrible from day one, and it had nothing to do with his injuries. It had everything to do with his limitations on the offensive side of the court. Ntilikina getting an MKG like extension would be as bad for the Knicks as it was for the hornets. If you are advocating otherwise, you too are in your decline phase.

I agree that giving Frank an extension based on what he has done thus far would be ludicrous. I don’t think that it’s a bad idea to wait and see, though. But MKG is a definite NBA rotation player by any reasonable standard. He’s not a minimum salary guy. Just not worth anywhere near $13 million AAV. And if you can find where I even hinted that we should offer Frank an extension, I’ll buy you a bottle of Lagavulin. Otherwise lighten up, dickhead.

a lot of you clearly haven’t watched enough recent Frank hype videos! He can shoot and dunk now

***if you can find where I even hinted that we should offer Frank an extension, I’ll buy you a bottle of Lagavulin. Otherwise lighten up, dickhead.***

Normally I’d be defensive and take offense to such an agressive personal attack, but since you’re Z-Man, and I love you, and you’ve had a rough 24 hours here, I’ll let it slide.

i’ll tell ya, one big phallicy point all you frank sucks folks keeping missing out on is that – we’re the freaking knicks man…frank is more than fine for our roster, no doubt he’s one of the top five assets we have at the moment…

we’re at least a few years away from being a competitive playoff team…that’s if everything goes right for the front office and coaching staff…

the draft is a crap shoot, frank’s about as known a commodity as there can be…

if you’re unable to envision any way to use frank’s current skillset in a winning team setting – that’s 100% on you…frank’s future is just a question of roster construction, cost and health…

i stand with the z-man 🙂

so when the mlb season starts up next year, it’ll be the first time in a while that when i think of the best player in baseball – the name mike trout won’t come to mind…

can’t remember the last time a player snatched so many souls and had such a pleasant smile while competing at that high a level…mookie!!!

the margin of error for the rays is just so tiny…and yet, they’re still in this thing…

wow, what a ballgame…

Strange discussion.

Notorious Frank hater who had said a year ago he’d be out of the league writes:

I would offer, like, 4/$6-$8M or something and not match anything above that.

And the Frank booster writes:

if you can find where I even hinted that we should offer Frank an extension, I’ll buy you a bottle of Lagavulin.

And then there’s the bizarre Oubre angle. This season per RPM he ranked 449 out of 520 NBA players. The previous season he ranked 432 out of 513. Frank ranked 221 out of 520 players.

Cronin, I want a poll:
Would you offer Frank a 3-year extension at 5m/yr before the start of the season?

Presume the medical staff has told you that his groin injury will not be a chronic problem. If it were an issue, I think most (including me) would not offer Frank an extension.

From the Knicksian stat vault:

Knox ranked 512 out of 513 on RPM in 2018-19. He somehow managed to finish even worse in 2019-20 ranking 520 out of 520. So he went from the 2nd worst player in the league to the worst player in the league! Knicksian!!

Cronin, I want another poll:
Should the Knicks pick up Knox’s 4th year option?

Why is anyone discussing extending Frank (or Knox for that matter) when we haven’t seen what he’ll do with a competent coach that will use him correctly in a season when he’s healthy and had almost a year to get physically stronger and work on weaknesses?

I’d like to see him get and stay healthy for a season under Thibs before deciding what he’s worth and whether we want to move forward with him.

Z-man: Frank has been playing mainly PG but he is a 3-position defender and possibly 4 when he gets stronger. He is not going to get shorter or weaker. His future is most likely as a small wing with some guard skills who can rotate between the 1-2-3. That said, his ast/tov ratio (2.36:1) is actually very PG-like.

  

Exactly.

Frank is a not a pure PG. He’s a “basketball player” that incompetent nitwits in our previous management have been trying to turn into a scoring and penetrating PG and that other nitwits have been judging based on his PG skills.

His role should be a switchable defensive stopper that can be a secondary ball handler and secondary playmaker that is unselfish, will make the extra pass, and occasionally make a great play.

There is an important role for players like that on a championship caliber team if they already have their #1 and #2 options. However, they have to give you “something” scoring wise. The typical or best skill to add is a 3 point shot that helps provide space. You don’t care much about the volume of his scoring because you already have that covered. You care about the quality of his defense and that he generates some space for your major scoring options to work with. In Frank’s case it would also make it easier for himself to penetrate on occasion when the defense is forced to guard him outside.

Frank is a consistent 3 point shot and some more experience defensively and under pressure from being a player that could start on a championship caliber team that already has it’s #1 and #2. Give him a better 3 point shot and stick him on the Mavericks and he’d have enormous value to them. In fact, that’s where he belongs.

Why is anyone discussing extending Frank (or Knox for that matter) when we haven’t seen what he’ll do with a competent coach that will use him correctly in a season when he’s healthy and had almost a year to get physically stronger and work on weaknesses?

Regarding Knox, the Knicks have to make a decision on his 4th year option at the start of his 3rd season. The question is then if you want his salary on the books in the summer of 2021. You’re a new poster 😉 so you weren’t here last summer when we had a discussion of whether to pick up Frank’s 4th year option.

Regarding Frank, if you have to ask why anyone would have a discussion about an extension of a rookie who will be a RFA at the end of the season, then you must have worked in the mail room when you said you’ve been a businessman. FWIW Knicks should be having the same discussion about Dennis Smith.

I remember the neon nights
I remember the wonderful flights
I remember how free we were
I remember our incredible love

I remember your TV screen
I remember the red light dream
I remember how free we were
I remember incredible love

I remember your X-ray eyes
I remember your moonlight cries
I remember how free we were
I remember incredible love

I remember our incredible love
I remember incredible love
Hmm

Written by Martin Rev and Alan Vega
Suicide – I remember (1978)

How many people here are going to be really upset if we draft Okoro? I’m still mulling whether I like him or not, mostly coming down on the side of not liking him. But he is a very imposing physical specimen on both ends. Obviously the shooting is a huge red flag, but I am wondering whether Thibs is going to try to convince mgmt that Okoro is the next Jimmy Butler.

More generally, I think the Lakers are on to something. If you have guys who can defend small-ball lineups with length and who can dominate the boards, you don’t need as much 3-pt shooting.

How many people here are going to be really upset if we draft Okoro? I’m still mulling whether I like him or not, mostly coming down on the side of not liking him. But he is a very imposing physical specimen on both ends. Obviously the shooting is a huge red flag, but I am wondering whether Thibs is going to try to convince mgmt that Okoro is the next Jimmy Butler.

There will almost definitely be players left on the board I would prefer, but I am coming around ever so slightly. His 2PT% and FTr really are monstrous. I tend to think this kind of thing is overrated, but he feels like the kind of prospect that might hinge on a solid development process, however you define that.

I wouldn’t be Cole Anthony level upset because there’s legitimate intrigue, but at the end of the day I don’t think I’d be happy if for no other reason because I am pretty damn sick of hearing “if he ever learns to shoot…”.

Also, everyone is calling this a weak draft, but I think that’s more of a star potential thing. I see a lot of good rotation players coming out of this draft all the way into the second round.

Agreed, which is why I’m against most trade-up scenarios using our later picks barring the availability my man crush Pokuševski.

Yeah I’m intrigued by okoro too even though we need PG play and shooting. But I like the idea of drafting more players who are good at defense. We’ve got Mitch and Frank and I think RJ could be solid on D too. We draft another plus defender and suddenly Thibs has a handful of guys that can defend. Schemes are great and all but you need the players to execute it. It might be fun to watch a young team that at least can be a handful on defense every night. While the league is more offense oriented these days, if you can defend you give yourself a chance every game. Then develop the offensive game of them.

I think my choices in no particular order are Okoro, Vassrll, Halliburton and Lewis Jr.

If Frank is just a pesky defender then it really is a ridiculous conversation.

I think he is better than that but the steals aren’t really there.

I agree that sells him short, but I’m not sure people realize just how high the standard for competency on offense is these days.

Andre Roberson, who checks out as a legitimately elite defender, was often deemed unplayable against strong competition despite posting a TS% north of .560 (fueled by a .600+ 2PT%) and being a great rebounder for his position.

Kris Dunn, another legitimately great defender, is probably going to sign for $6M AAV or so despite being much better than Frank on offense. It’s not necessarily clear he has a place on a good team. I’m a bit confused as to why the Frankophiles don’t want us to just target him instead of re-signing Frank, actually, since he’s basically everything they pretend Frank is.

I could go on but the point is I don’t think Frank getting his 3PT% above league average, which is far from a sure thing, necessarily gets him to rotation level. His usage will still be comically low due to his complete lack of an ability to get easy baskets (something I don’t ever see him “fixing” because it boils down to his lack of athleticism and poor handle), he still won’t be contributing anything on the boards, and his playmaking ability will still be underwhelming.

Owen:
If Frank is just a pesky defender then it really is a ridiculous conversation.

I think he is better than that but the steals aren’t really there.

Maybe he fills out and ends up a Bruce Bowen, i.e. someone who doesn’t show up in the boxscore but gets a ton of credit for his defensive mojo.

I’ve moved on from Frank because everyone has clearly articulated their position (I think, although maybe not because it seems some think I was advocating for an extension when I clearly wasn’t) and now it’s about moving forward and seeing how it turns out.

You raise a larger issue which comes up in many contexts on this board: how do we accurately account for defensive impact in valuing a defensive-oriented player? It’s hard to argue that Frank is a plus player based on box-score-based metrics, and on/off metrics are noisy and diffuse. It’s even more curious now because defensive schemes are more team-defense oriented than ever. It’s kinda like the hockey assist and Kobe assist on offense not crediting (or even penalizing) the individual that is actually responsible for creating points in an individual possession.

Strat’s take on spacing is maligned here and I have no interest in defending him, nor do I think it’s useful to dismiss everything he says or has said because, well, he’s strat. But I do think that more than ever, basketball is a game where spacing matters more nowadays than ever. PnR depends on creating spacing by forcing defenses to make decisions to go over vs. under, or switch vs. stay home, or double vs. single-team. Shooters are so good that a being a split-second late for contesting a shot, or being too short or slow to defend a given player on a switch or in space, should be picked up in some kind of advanced stat if a pattern develops.

Frank and Mitch seem to add defensive value well beyond their counting stats, and it seems that both have excellent on/off numbers. In Mitch’s case, you can give some credit to his uber-efficiency on offense, but not for Frank. I’m not reaching a conclusion here, just musing.

Kris Dunn came into the league at the age Frank is now, put up 3 years of terrible offense between age 22-25 (all wors than Frank’s last year). He took four years to get “slightly” better than Frank on offense (TS%, FTr, 3pt%, BPM, are all in the same general area as Frank, am I missing something?) and is about to turn 27.

Andre Roberson also came into the league at age 22. He turned into basically the defensive equivalent of Enes Kanter, except that you can hide a guy on offense easier than on defense. Very good situationally, pretty much invisible on offense (single digit usg%, might have been lowest in the league). He played 26mpg in the playoffs for a team that went to the WCFs, so I don’t understand the statement that he was deemed unplayable against strong competition….at least before his injury.

If your argument is that Frank does not deserve an extension of more than the $6 mill AAV that 27yo Dunn will probably get, sure. That’s a long way from saying he’s pretty much toast as an NBA player. The point is that at 27, Dunn is who he is, which is better than he was at age 22. Most GMs would probably think that Frank, who hasn’t played a minute of NBA basketball at age 22, still has a decent chance to develop into a better 2-way player than either of those guys.

I think it’s also accurate to say that Kris Dunn was a mighty whiff at #5 in the 2016 draft.

Dunn’s ast% last year was 19.4. Frank’s was 20.2.

Why are you now comparing one year after going through Dunn’s career stats before? I’m guessing they moved Dunn off the ball to accommodate White to some extent, but Dunn’s AST/36 was over in the two prior years. It’s a legitimate offensive strength of his. Defenses have to respect his drive to some degree.

Idk how Okoro and RJ would work together. They both need the lane to work in on offense. Okoro would be good on Phoenix with all their shooters.

I think Hali and Toppin are probably the best fits at 8, maybe Vassell. Not sure about Hayes, but he’s still so damn young.

I think Vassell drops out of the top 8, but hey, you never know.

Okoro’s advances numbers are also much worse than the rest, even worse than RJ’s. And you have to wonder if he’ll shoot so well 2 feet from the basket at 6’6” against much taller, stronger NBA bigs.

Golden State would reject that offer. But I put your poll up anyways!

You are missing my point. If nothing improves except his 3pt shot I think he is a valuable player. Most likely other things will improve as well but Frank with a consistent 3 is a rotation player on every team in the NBA.

The fact that other things are trending up as well give a lot of hope. The problem is without the 3 pt shot he is marginal no matter how he improves in other areas unless he completely transforms.