Knicks Morning News (2018.08.14)

  • [SNY Knicks] Knicks’ Kanter, Nets’ Dinwiddie engage in Twitter beef
    (Monday, August 13, 2018 11:48:56 PM)

    The Nets’ Spencer Dinwiddie said the Knicks weren’t even the best team in the state. And Knicks center Enes Kanter wasn’t happy with that.

  • [SNY Knicks] Metta World Peace thinks Knicks will make Eastern Conference Finals
    (Monday, August 13, 2018 8:26:01 PM)

    Metta World Peace thinks the Knicks and Pacers will play for a spot in the NBA Finals.

  • [SNY Knicks] Former Knick Carmelo Anthony expected to sign deal with Rockets Monday
    (Monday, August 13, 2018 11:10:47 AM)

    Former Knicks F Carmelo Anthony has traveled to Houston, and is expected to officially sign a one-year, $2.4 million deal with the Rockets on Monday.

  • [NYTimes] Carmelo Anthony Officially Signs with the Houston Rockets
    (Tuesday, August 14, 2018 4:34:00 AM)

    After a rocky season in Oklahoma City, the former Knick joins his close friend, Chris Paul, and the league’s reigning M.V.P., James Harden, for a run at Golden State.

  • [NYDN] Cuomo’s parole board is woefully short-staffed and includes two political hacks, advocates say
    (Tuesday, August 14, 2018 3:00:00 AM)

    The state Board of Parole is woefully understaffed, and two members who have deep political and police ties routinely reject prisoners without ever giving them a chance, a scathing new report by criminal justice activists charges.

    Commissioner Walter William Smith Jr., a politically connected member…

  • [NYDN] A political pledge to exact: Demand candidates promise to pass Kalief’s Law
    (Tuesday, August 14, 2018 2:00:00 AM)

    Few humans are as anxious, malleable and ready to cut a deal as candidates for New York office in the closing weeks of a tight campaign. The typical pol, especially an incumbent, has a lot riding on the outcome of the election. Their paycheck, health benefits, pension and personal prestige are…

  • [NYDN] In Madison’s name: Lessons from the death of an Australian cyclist tourist
    (Tuesday, August 14, 2018 1:10:00 AM)

    The violent death of a young visitor has a way of shaming the frazzled civic mind into repairing dangerously jagged edges of our city. So it was with the 1990 murder of Brian Watkins of Utah, followed by stepped-up enforcement against subway marauders.

    May the wrenching loss of Australian tourist…

  • [NYDN] Readers sound off on Vic Raschi, Donald Trump and dogs
    (Tuesday, August 14, 2018 12:00:00 AM)

    A great forgotten Yankee, Vic Raschi

    Somerset, N.J.: “Top 10 Big Apple All-Star performances” (July 17) was an excellent write-up on New York baseball players big moments in the All-Star games.

    Everyone on that list is known to most fans except for Vic Raschi (second from left). Vic was the ace…

  • [NYDN] Beyoncé honors ailing Aretha Franklin at Detroit concert
    (Monday, August 13, 2018 11:35:00 PM)

    DETROIT — Queen Bey dedicated her performance with husband, Jay Z, to the Queen of Soul drawing a thunderous roar from Aretha Franklin’s hometown of Detroit.

    The Detroit Free Press reports the moment came early in the show Monday night at Ford Field with Beyoncé saying, “We love you” and thanking…

  • [NYDN] Deadline looms for release of Catholic church abuse report
    (Monday, August 13, 2018 11:10:00 PM)

    HARRISBURG, Pa. — Time is ticking down to a court-ordered deadline Tuesday afternoon to decide what information to black out in a forthcoming grand jury report investigating child sexual abuse in six of Pennsylvania’s Roman Catholic dioceses.

    A state Supreme Court order issued last month set a…

  • [NYDN] Defendants arrested at New Mexico compound to be released
    (Monday, August 13, 2018 9:45:00 PM)

    TAOS, N.M. — Four people arrested on charges of abusing 11 children at a remote New Mexico compound could be freed as soon as Tuesday under bail terms set by a state judge.

    Charges filed in another state are all that is keeping a fifth suspect from being freed under the order by Judge Sarah Backus.

  • [NYDN] Nebraska poised to carry out first execution since 1997 for one of nation’s longest-serving death row inmates
    (Monday, August 13, 2018 9:45:00 PM)

    LINCOLN, Neb. — Nebraska is preparing to carry out its first execution since 1997 on Tuesday in a bewildering about-face driven largely by the state’s Republican governor.

    Carey Dean Moore, 60, is scheduled to be executed at the Nebraska State Penitentiary in Lincoln with a never-before-tried combination…

  • [NYDN] SEE IT: Hit-and-run driver plows into 11-year-old boy biking on Queens street
    (Monday, August 13, 2018 9:25:00 PM)

    A hit-and-run driver sent a young boy riding his bike in Queens sailing through the air Monday night, police said.

    The 11-year-old victim was pedaling along Healy Ave. near Dickens St. in Bayswater at about 7:40 p.m. when he was struck by a black sedan.

    Surveillance video posted on Twitter by @NYCityAlerts…

  • [NYDN] Ackert: Jacob deGrom bolsters Cy Young case with victory over Yankees as Mets actually give him some run support by shelling Luis Severino
    (Monday, August 13, 2018 9:10:00 PM)

    It was a win, a moral victory and a debate about what really defines a great pitcher all in one. In what was likely the last big game of the season for the Mets, Jacob deGrom bested Luis Severino and the Yankees to pick up an 8-5 victory at Yankee Stadium.

    In front of a nationally-televised audience,…

  • [NYDN] Daily Horoscope — August 14, 2018
    (Monday, August 13, 2018 9:00:00 PM)

    Via Tarot Astrologers

    General Horoscope for August 14, 2018

    Our attention turns from our personal desires to the needs of others as the Moon enters diplomatic Libra at 12:56 am EDT. Although it can be challenging to make the shift, we actually derive pleasure from helping others. But a Moon-Saturn…

  • [NYDN] CC Sabathia headed to 10-day DL with right knee inflammation, and now the Yankees have a rotation decision to make
    (Monday, August 13, 2018 8:55:00 PM)

    Remember how the Yankees brought in all that pitching insurance before the non-waiver trade deadline? It may not have been enough. Monday, they had to put veteran lefty CC Sabathia on the disabled list with right-knee inflammation.

    The big lefty pitched six scoreless on Sunday in the Yankees’ 7-2…

  • [NYDN] Luis Severino is still stuck in a serious rut, but Yankees skipper Aaron Boone says there are no plans to skip a start
    (Monday, August 13, 2018 8:40:00 PM)

    After Luis Severino ba ttled Jacob DeGrom, we know who is the best pitcher in New York. But we still don’t know who would be the best option for the Yankees in a Wild Card game.

    Severino was bombed again Monday night, this time by the Mets, allowing four runs in just four innings of an 8-5 defeat….

  • [NYDN] In Vermont, 14-year-old boy running for governor thanks to legal quirk
    (Monday, August 13, 2018 8:25:00 PM)

    BURLINGTON, Vt. — One of the four Vermont Democrats seeking the party nomination to run for governor in the fall election isn’t old enough to vote, let alone drive.

    Ethan Sonneborn, 14, of Bristol, met the requirements to be on the primary ballot and is taking his place with the state’s more age-appropriate…

  • [NYDN] City Parks worker accused of choking, mugging woman in Queens; police seek link to more robberies
    (Monday, August 13, 2018 7:55:00 PM)

    A city Parks Department employee choked and robbed a woman in Queens, and investigators are looking into whether he’s responsible for four more recent robberies, police said.

    Donald Grier, 26, was busted Monday on charges he put a 28-year-old woman in a chokehold and stole her pocketbook on 29th…

  • [NYDN] De Blasio wants ‘consequences’ for livery driver who blocked bike lane in deadly Central Park West crash
    (Monday, August 13, 2018 7:50:00 PM)

    Mayor de Blasio says the livery driver who blocked the Central Park West bike lane and forced an Australian tourist to veer into the path of a garbage truck was reckless and should be summonsed.

    “There’s got to be consequences, for this case for sure in my opinion,” de Blasio said Monday during…

  • [NYDN] Aretha Franklin is reportedly ‘seriously ill’
    (Monday, August 13, 2018 7:30:00 PM)

    Aretha Franklin is said to be suffering major health woes, according to reports.

    A source close to the “Queen of Soul” told The Associated Press on Monday that the 76-year-old star is “seriously ill,” but declined to provide further details.

    She was in hospice care at her home Thursday, CNN reported.

  • [NYDN] Lunch ladies charged in half-million-dollar scam
    (Monday, August 13, 2018 7:07:00 PM)

    Embezzlement was on the menu in Connecticut as two lunch ladies stand accused of swiping nearly half a million dollars from two schools.

    Joanne Pascarelli, 61, and sister Marie Wilson, 67, allegedly stole a whopping $478,588 between 2012 and 2017, said cops.

    After bookkeeping discrepancies were…

  • [NYDN] Boy suffers serious facial injuries after being covered in nail polish and set on fire (WARNING: GRAPHIC)
    (Monday, August 13, 2018 7:00:00 PM)

    A young boy sustained serious facial injuries after another child allegedly burned his face in a horrific incident.

    Seven-year-old Julien was rushed to a Missouri hospital last Thursday after another boy, 8, covered his face in nail polish before setting him on fire, his mother Ashley Lyons told…

  • [NYDN] Missouri nun caught smuggling cocaine in high heels — and blames her internet lover
    (Monday, August 13, 2018 6:45:00 PM)

    A Missouri nun who was busted for heeding a much higher calling — trying to smuggle cocaine in a pair of high heels in 2017 — claimed she was duped by her roguish Romeo.

    Denise Woodrum, 51, a sister of the Adorers of the Blood of Christ order, was arrested at Sydney Airport in possession of 756…

  • [NYDN] President Trump once pronounced Nepal as ‘nipple’
    (Monday, August 13, 2018 6:05:00 PM)

    Add this to the list of President Trump’s miscues.

    Trump pronounced the South Asian country Nepal as “nipple” while he was preparing for a meeting with the prime minister of India last year, Politico reported, citing a pair of sources.

    He also called Bhutan “button,” doing so with a laugh, according…

  • [NYDN] More than 130,000 motorists zoom illegally past NYC schools since speed cameras shut down
    (Monday, August 13, 2018 5:50:00 PM)

    Speed cameras have caught 132,000 drivers racing through school zones since July 25th – and thanks to the state Legislature, not one of them has been ticketed.

    Mayor de Blasio released the sobering statistic Monday in what his office called its first “status report” since the city was forced to…

  • [NYDN] Buffalo Bills star LeSean McCoy sued by ex-girlfriend Delicia Cordon over July home invasion that left her beaten bloody
    (Monday, August 13, 2018 5:50:00 PM)

    The ex-girlfriend of Buffalo Bills running back LeSean McCoy has filed a personal injury lawsuit against the NFL star after she was beaten bloody in a July 10 home invasion robbery at his Georgia mansion.

    Delicia Cordon filed her lawsuit in Fulton County on Friday, naming McCoy and his former University…

  • [NYDN] Group of black school girls asked to leave New Jersey gift shop in viral video where worker says they ‘aren’t welcome’
    (Monday, August 13, 2018 5:30:00 PM)

    A group of African-American girls’ joyous day at the beach became a tsunami of tears on Aug. 10 when a clerk demanded they leave her store immediately.

    The worker at Jenkinson’s Aquarium Gift Shop in Point Pleasant, N.J., who identified herself only as “Linda,” booted the 12- and 13-year-olds from…

  • [NYDN] President Trump’s ‘coke habit’ the cause of his mental and physical decline, says Omarosa
    (Monday, August 13, 2018 5:05:00 PM)

    President Trump has a coke habit, according to a new poison-pen book about the White House.

    Not the white powder craved by disco queens and Wall Street strivers, the diet kind.

    In “Unhinged: An Insider Account of the Trump White House,” former reality-TV star-turned-White House staffer Omarosa…

  • 69 replies on “Knicks Morning News (2018.08.14)”

    The thing that makes me call bs on every one of those “basketball is complex and advanced stats are always flawed!” arguments is that somehow all the complexities advanced stats can’t account for are always favorable to the Knicks player du jour on the conversation (unless he’s called Tyson Chandler or Willy Hernangomez, then it’s always against them).

    That you would call bs on every one of those arguments because they always favorable to Knicks players is pretty typical of your “all or none” approach to arguing, i.e. either people agree with you or they’re wrong.

    You bring up Tyson Chandler. Three widely accepted advanced stats paint a significantly (but not radically) different picture of his value during his best seasons, especially on offense. The argument was made that his extremely low usage mitigates his extremely high efficiency, a pov that was shat upon by Mr. WP48 and his disciples. And god forbid that anyone use PER in defending that argument! Well, lo and behold, BPM data from confirms that while Chandler had a slightly higher VORP than Melo (3.2 to 2.3), nearly all of that was due to defense. Melo had an OBPM of 2.9 to Chandler’s 1.4.

    So when I brought up yesterday that WP is actually more deviant from BPM than PER, I am absolutely suggesting that WP methodology grossly inflated efficient but low-usage scoring and rebounding to Chandlers benefit, much in the same way that PER inflated high-volume but inefficient scoring. If BPM has become the go-to stat for Jowles arguments, then there has to be an admission there. BPM makes it clear that Chandler was a very good, but not great player even at his peak offensive efficiency. And when his defense fell off, as it did in the 2012-13 playoffs, he was no better than the then journeyman Kenyon Martin.

    Willy Hernangomez is a poster boy for the inefficiency of BPM. He actually rates out higher on DBPM than OBPM, even though he’s an objectively terrible defender and passable at worst offensive player TS%-wise.

    In short, it’s not as all-or-none, us-vs-them as you constantly suggest.


    You’re really reading too much into this. I was obviously being hyperbolic with the use of “every one” and I didn’t even read your posts, it was mostly a reaction to strato’s post about KP and shooting guards being underrated by advanced stats.

    There are surely good arguments that go against most advanced stats and I don’t think you’re wrong in this post, as with every method of evaluation advanced stats have to be recycled and reanalyzed constantly. I was just poking some fun at this thing I see where the complexities of the game somehow make key Knicks players (Melo, Porzingis) always better than advanced stats when their actual results on the court seem to agree with advanced stats more. You need to use your sense of humor more.

    I just can’t understand why you hate so much the approach of everyone is wrong when they don’t agree with me. Isn’t that the point of having an opinion and constructing an argument? If I thought about something and I’ve reached a conclusion about it, what’s wrong about believing my own conclusions until they are proven wrong? Until someone can prove I’m undoubtedly wrong I’ll stick to my conclusions, which is what everyone including you does. I’m a scientist, this is what I do.

    Shams is joining The Athletic. I sure hope their business model works, given how many great writers they’ve poached from elsewhere. (And thus far, I have zero regrets about subscribing.)

    I can’t be the only person here who doesn’t care whether the Knicks are bad or merely mediocre at drafting

    I can’t be the only person here who doesn’t care whether the Knicks are bad or merely mediocre at drafting

    But are they good?

    The thing that baffles me about the drafting argument is, again, WHAT WERE THE BETTER PICKS AVAILABLE TO THEM? Almost everyone has evaluated the picks in relation to various cherry-picked stats (and here, I’m calling you out again, Jowles, as you picked the two best years of the other players while always having argued – correctly – that players typically suck their first few years and don’t peak until 26 or so, meaning that the VORP on KP and Frank and any recent picks have little bearing on the eventual value they are to provide)…while it is perfectly possible to look at EACH ACTUAL DRAFT and evaluate the pick in relation to the players still available. If you do that, you see that yes, the Knicks almost always missed on a Gobert, but then, so did every other team. And unlike most other teams, they didn’t miss on Gobert, and Giannis, and Porter, and Oladipo, and Steven Adams, and so on and so on, BECAUSE THEIR PICK WAS LOW.

    In other words, people are having this argument in a vacuum, when the actual draft is available for proof or rebuttal.

    In that context, in general the Knicks have done well. They just have had poor position, or no pick at all, most of the time.

    If you do that, you see that yes, the Knicks almost always missed on a Gobert, but then, so did every other team. And unlike most other teams, they didn’t miss on Gobert, and Giannis, and Porter, and Oladipo, and Steven Adams, and so on and so on, BECAUSE THEIR PICK WAS LOW.

    So you argue that the Knicks fail to identify talent–

    In that context, in general the Knicks have done well. They just have had poor position, or no pick at all, most of the time.

    Uh huh. Do you not see how you’re taking nebulous evidence to make your assessment?

    This is perhaps the least persuasive line of argument that I’ve seen on this board. Even ruruland could bob and weave through his sophistry.

    Every argument has been, “Well, KP’s not old enough to evaluate!” and then “So the Knicks are better than average at drafting!”

    No, that’s not how it works.

    I fall in between Stratomatic and Bruno on this.

    I’m largely on board with advanced statistics but I find glaringly obvious that they overstate the value of a player who excels at offensive rebounding while being terrible at defense. Kenneth Faried, Enes Kanter, Willy Hernangomez, Kevin Love are a few examples off the top of my head. Before anyone jumps on me, I think all those players are good and productive. I just think most advanced stats we use overstate their production relative to other players because offensive rebounding is highly valued and impact on team defense is easy to see but hard to measure.

    I don’t agree with Strat’s point on stretch PFs. Porzingis is a bad rebounder on both sides of the court and his mediocre offensive output does nothing to negate that. He’s a problematic NBA player so far, and likely will continue to be unless he figures out a way to add enough strength to be a good rebounder and be able to keep it on over the course of a season. Advanced stats have him pegged perfectly.

    Also, the implication that if the Knicks could have selected those players, we’re to assume that they would have? And that they’re good at drafting because of that? Come right off it, dude. That’s some crazy homerism at best.

    Reminds me of the scene in The Squid and the Whale when the therapist tells Jesse Eisenberg that he didn’t, in fact, write that Pink Floyd song he claimed as his own at a school talent show, and he responds: “I felt I could have written it, so the fact that it was already written was kind of a technicality.”

    Its just weird to me how many people are ready to completely write off KP now after 3 years in the league when he’s still only 22 years old. Whatever happened to he’s 3 years away from being 3 years away?

    I’m just going to put this out there. Maybe KP, at least in the minds of some of the people on his blog, is a victim of his own success? IE, he came into the league and surpassed his expectations pretty quickly. But since then he’s only marginally improved so people now think he’s peaked when the reality is that he was always a long term project. He was just way better than advertised to begin with.

    I get the hand wringing though bc we have to make a decision about him and his new contract very soon. But the way some people talk on this blog you would think he’s been in the league for 8 years and hasn’t improved at all.

    With Melo it was very logical to be down on him. By the time he became a Knick he had played in the league for almost a decade.

    KP is going into his 4th year. There are players his age who are only in their 2nd or 1st year in the league. He had half a season as the number one option and he may not be a true number one option when its all said and done. But can we at least try to remember the good things he does as a player? I’m not asking for a purity test, just some balance when it comes to evaluating a 22 year old player who was supposed to be 3 years away from being 3 years away.

    Does the draft argument even matter? It feels like y’all are squabbling about whether or not the right sized sails are raised on a ship when the engine doesn’t work, the crew is organizing a mutiny, and there are holes everywhere. Even if the “truth” finds we are above average in drafting, it doesn’t even matter.

    My perspective is the draft is truly a lottery. Understanding that scouting is flawed, eye test is flawed, and metrics is flawed (wrt how College/European performance translates to the NBA) is a core tenant to picking BPA. Positional fit through the draft is overrated and really shouldn’t be part of the decision making process.

    FWIW the Knicks are probably better than I am at drafting. They aren’t better than me at developing players, committing to the tank, and handing out contracts. To be fair, I’m probably worse at playing the Billionaire Blues.

    Are people writing him off? Or are they just projecting he won’t be worth what we are going to pay him?

    I don’t know, I like Porzingis. For 10-12 million per I would love him. But he’s a hard guy to trust with the largest chunk of your cap.

    “I felt I could have written it, so the fact that it was already written was kind of a technicality.”

    Love this

    Its just weird to me how many people are ready to completely write off KP now after 3 years in the league when he’s still only 22 years old. Whatever happened to he’s 3 years away from being 3 years away?

    There’s a lot of people on this board concerned about giving him a five year super max contract next offseason. I’m one of them. I don’t think I’ve ever read anyone state they’re ready to completely write him off.

    @14 and 15
    Agreed. That’s where I’m at. Let’s hope KP can come back at some point this season and do well.



    People voicing concerns or pointing that his current production is underwhelming does not mean they’re saying he’s a useless player that won’t ever improve and should be waived ASAP.

    You really have to be some special kind of Pollyanna to not be concerned at all about Porzingis, specially with the injury. He can’t shoot efficiently and can’t rebound, this isn’t about advanced stats or not. Damn, Kevin Love shoots like 6 threes a game since he extended his range, which is more than Porzingis ever averaged, and he still rebounded greatly (and even now after the injuries and playing with LeBron on a diminished role is still a much better rebounder than KP). He had superstar numbers, was regarded by the advanced stats as a superstar and it wasn’t very complex to see why.

    The outcomes for Porzingis by this time next year are:

    1) He signs a $195M extension after two months of play post-injury. Regardless of his returning play, this seems a huge risk.

    2) He is S&T’ed to a dumb team in the off-season for a king’s ransom. He gets his money and the Knicks get multiple picks and/or young good players. The fanbase is royally pissed, but depending on the haul, could be a real win long-term. Far less risk than the above.

    3) He’s S&T’ed to a smart team that gives up very little to acquire him. Given the injury risk, I see this as unlikely, but I understand why this would be perceived as a bad outcome. I would probably agree, since I would have fielded offers for him before the trade deadline last year.

    4) He doesn’t come back from the injury with enough confidence to receive the supermax. He takes a Capela-like discount to stay in NY. This would be an okay outcome to me.

    I see (1) as the most likely scenario, which is a NTC Melo level blunder to me. Not as bad as Wiggins’ supermax, or Noah/Deng/Ryan Anderson contracts, but still very bad for the Knick future.

    At less than 20M, great! At 20-25M, I get it. Less than 30M, fine, at least not a max. More than that is basically Amare all over again, but without the history of being a great player already.
    KP isn’t a max player at the moment, and prior to his injury was playing below-average for a couple of months. I do see a path for him to superstardom, but he ain’t there yet.

    What’s weird to me is actually how many people outside this blog think we need to give him whatever he wants. This is the only place I can talk about Porzingis’ flaws without people thinking I’m Ebeneezer Scrooge. My friends who are Knicks fans are completely irrational about him and think he’s already a superstar. Victim of his early success? Quite the opposite. His occasional stretches of stellar play have created the popular perception that he’s a max player, when even a cursory look at his actual production thoroughly refutes that idea.


    I thought my post was pretty clear, but let me try to rephrase in a way that’s easier to follow.

    The only way that the Knicks record of drafting can be judged is by looking at the available players when they picked in each draft. That is in fact the opposite of nebulous.

    Your argument, on the other hand, has been at best generalized, and at worst, deliberately disingenuous, because you’ve compared the VORP of young players – who are nowhere near their peak – to that of the best two years of players with a full career behind them. Or are you deviating from your long-held position that players peak from ages 26-28? You can’t have it both ways: either players typically peak at ages 26-28, invalidating any comparisons of 20-yr-old players to the typical peak of players who have played a full career–or they don’t, and their their 20-yr-old seasons can be measured against any seasons from any other players without qualification.

    If you do concede that your fundamental assertion was in valid – because you were comparing seasons from 20-yr-olds to seasons from 27-yr-olds – then we establish that we should only be looking at drafts from three years ago or more.

    Then, arguments have been made based on the relative success of players chosen at each draft slot, which again are insufficient at best: every draft is different; some have a handful of “all-time” players, others have none. But we can look at each specific draft and measure the pick from that draft against all other possibilities in that draft in order to determine the quality of the pick.

    Do that for older drafts, measuring who we took against who was available, and you can see the Knicks typically got one of the two or three best players.

    As for the implication that

    if the Knicks could have selected those players, we’re to assume that they would have?

    – that’s your inference, not my implication. I didn’t assume anything.

    Although as KBPowerRankings said,

    Even if the “truth” finds we are above average in drafting, it doesn’t even matter.

    Fair enough. I also said as much in my original post – we make so many other mistakes (including usually trading away draft picks), it is hardly our biggest problem.

    @20, Hubert, What is your definition of max player?

    KP sells tickets, makes highlights & makes all star team so marketing dollars flow & this increases the value of the franchise. Melo did the same. Look up MSG stock quote since Melo joined NY. So, KP is a max player cause he makes owners money. Period.

    Now, can he be the best player on a championship team? – TBD, at best.

    So, yes, from fans perspective, he may not be a max player but from perspective of the owner who writes the salary check, KP is worth every penny.

    Guess, whose perspective matters?

    It really grinds me that he has been billed as a franchise savior since day one. Sort of like how Wiggins was told very early that he was The Man in Minnesota, and now their owners “have to” pay him an absurd amount of money immediately before saying publicly that he needs to improve substantially to earn his contract! That’s insane!

    Porzingis should get the same treatment, but instead, there’s constant apologism for him: why his efficiency is shit, why he doesn’t rebound at all, why he takes 20-foot jumpers like his Franchise Savior predecessor, why he is worth a $195M gamble instead of cashing out and wisely delaying the rebuild with more assets.

    Before last season, Minnesota fans on Reddit told me Wiggins was due for a breakout season and they were so confident in that they used the RemindMe! tool so they could rub it in my face by season’s end. What’d I get? Crickets.

    If Porzingis plays two months well, it’ll be enough evidence for his fans to reward him with 35% of the Knicks’ cap space. If he plays like shit, it’ll be too soon after recovery to write him off.

    The pragmatists can’t win.

    Winning sells tickets. Star power only provides a temporary boom. Berri was trustworthy on this subject.

    I meant to say that KP should be told that he needs to improve a great deal before he receives that contract. Not that he should get the supermax and then be told to get better.

    fWIW his max is 25% of the cap. There’s now no way he can qualify for the mega max. So $27m, not the 35% or $30m + that some people are quoting.

    Now, would that make it ok? It’s a huge risk. I love KP and I still think with the right system and coaching he could be great, but there’s no denying the arguments of those pointing out that he isn’t great yet, and there are at least as many realistic scenarios where we regret a max as there are where we don’t.

    Assuming he comes back healthy, I’d at least try and quietly gauge the market around the draft, and I’d also be pushing for some Embid-style protections in any deal.

    My issue with the max is not so much if KP is worthy of it or not, it’s much more simple: this is a peak 30-win roster with not a lot of youth and just the normal assets you would expect (their own picks). This type of team should not be giving away max contracts unless it’s a stud young player with proven production.

    KP’s max will artificially speed up the team’s timeline when it’s not ready to move forward yet from the rebuild. It’s not so much that he’ll be overpaid, it’s the consequences in strategy of that overpay specifically.

    @20, Hubert, What is your definition of max player?

    Anyone who I could realistically expect to be the centerpiece of a championship team while that player is earning 30% of the salary cap.

    Stratomatic "Porzingis, Ntilikina, Knox & Robinson are going to lead us to the promised landsays:

    What about the complex idea that KP being a poor rebounder puts extra strain on his teammates to go for these rebounds, making the game harder for them? How about KP’s inability to shoot at an above-average rate makes his guards look worse because they get less assists from his bricks? How about KP’s lack of an inside game forcing his fellow big men to bang inside with opposing bigs on the offensive paint all game long makes them more tired and less effective overall? How about maybe, just maybe, his production is actually subpar and he needs to improve in a lot of areas to actually deserve the contract he’ll eventually get?

    When I pointed out that statistical models are not capturing KP’s value correctly, that means I think he’s better than he looks on WS/48, BPM, and definitely Wins Produced. That does not mean I think he’s a superstar. There are shades between black and white. In fact, that’s where reality usually resides.

    Stratomatic "Porzingis, Ntilikina, Knox & Robinson are going to lead us to the promised landsays:

    I fall in between Stratomatic and Bruno on this.

    I don’t agree with Strat’s point on stretch PFs. Porzingis is a bad rebounder on both sides of the court and his mediocre offensive output does nothing to negate that. .

    Actually we are in total agreement.

    When I say playing on the perimeter instead of in a traditional PF role hurts KP’s rebounding, I am talking about an impact of perhaps 1-2 rebound per 36 at the max. It’s probably less than that. That doesn’t translate into me thinking he’s great rebounder or superstar. It translates into exactly what I said. The model underrates his value because there is no box score metric for why teams are moving in that direction strategically (more space).

    This is not directed at you. It’s a general comment.

    People on different sides on any debate tend to attribute extremes to the opposition in order make their own arguments. Had I said KP was a great rebounder or an obvious superstar worthy of a max contract, that would be one thing. But all I said was he’s better than the models capture because his defense is not measured properly and the rebound/spacing tradeoff is one sided in the models.

    So what does that make him?

    It means he’s better than the “average” player some models suggest and a lot better than the trash Wins Produced says he is, but he has some weaknesses in his shot selection, strength, and decision making that he’ll have to correct if he wants to be a real star.

    Stratomatic "Porzingis, Ntilikina, Knox & Robinson are going to lead us to the promised landsays:

    I meant to say that KP should be told that he needs to improve a great deal before he receives that contract. Not that he should get the supermax and then be told to get better.

    I would simply tell him the truth.

    If KP puts winning high on the priority list, they should explain to him it makes sense for them to try to create enough cap space for 1 or 2 very significant players next year, but they can’t do that if they give him a max contract now. They should tell him they fully understand the risks involved. If he plays and gets hurt again, his big chance for that one big payday will be gone. So if he decides to take the year off, they would understand. He could keep working on his strength and game while the team develops the other young players this year. Then they’d get another good draft pick, potentially bring in a valuable player or two with cap space, give KP is max contract next year and go from there.

    It’s on him too.

    The Knicks can just refuse, but that will create tension again. They can also try to get him on board for waiting and put the issue of risk “in his court”. If he wants to play, play. If he’s afraid of blowing a big deal, sit out. One way or the other he’s getting that max contract because now that players are drafted so young, you have to give the best prospects max money before they prove they are worth it.

    folks, KP will get his 25%. Even if he struggles when he gets back. It’s a done deal. Did you see how fast Phil Jack was sent to pasture when he considered moving Dolan’s cash cow for Booker and Jackson?

    Can’t blame Dolan. Every smart business person who invests own and his investors money in a project has a fiduciary duty to hand KP the max and watch him double the value of MSG brand.

    KP is a global superstar in the making. Cola-Cola got themselves a piece of Body Armor Sport drink today; Gatorade on verge of being dubbed “grandparents technology sports drink”. Kobe is a genius.

    KP is absolutely going to get his max even though I don’t think that’s a particularly good idea. I just hope they’re able to work some injury insurance in there a la Embiid’s contract. Gambling on him becoming more productive is one thing. Gambling on him becoming more productive AND staying healthy is simply unjustifiable.

    @36 – HELL no! What did Melo do for the Knicks except set the rebuild back a decade?

    As for the KP debate, we’re at least 6 months away from it being an issue. If healthy, I rank him as a borderline all-star. He’s not an All-star in the West, for sure. That being said, he’s not a super-max player but he will probably merit $25M per year. It all depends on his health. Unfortunately, that also means he’s going to rush back to play and prove his value which is bad for the tank.

    I think the Knicks and KP have an understanding in place in terms of the cap space. He won’t sign his deal until Kyrie Irving takes his max contract.

    I think KP is worth around a 4 year, $60mm deal.

    I’m aware that, somehow, that would be considered insulting. So I’d be willing to go 4 years, $100mm if I’m Perry. It’s a drastic overpay, but I think there’s a better than 50% chance KP can match that value, and I do think the Knicks need to take some risks.

    If that doesn’t get it done, then I would trade him. But 5 year deals and deals that are a percent of the cap (when the cap is expected to increase drastically) would be off the table completely. And considering no other team in the NBA has the ability to offer one, I’m not sure why we would.

    This is every Knick draft pick from 2003-2014, followed by their WS per season and expected WS per season (based on draft position). After 2014 the guys are too young to properly measure.

    Early: -0.3, 1.3 = bad
    Thanasis: 0.0, 0.6 = bad
    THJ: 2.6, 1.7 = good
    Papanikolaou: 0.2, 0.7 = even
    Shump: 1.3, 2.1 = bad
    Rautins: -0.2, 1.1 = bad
    Fields: 2.1, 1.0 = good
    Jordan Hill: 1.6, 3.4 = bad
    Gallo: 4.2, 3.8 = even
    Chandler: 2.4, 1.7 = good
    Balkman: 1.0, 1.9 = bad
    Mardy Collins: -0.4, 1.5 = bad
    Frye: 3.2, 3.4 = even
    DLee: 6.3, 1.5 = very good
    Dijon Thompson: 0.1, 0.5 = even
    Ariza: 4.1, 0.9 = very good
    Sweetney: 2.0, 3.2 = bad
    Lampe: 0.0, 1.5 = bad
    Vranes: -0.4, 1.0 = bad

    That’s 2 very goods, 3 goods, 4 evens, and 10 bads. (You could also consider Sweetney a very bad pick since he only lasted 4 seasons, although his WS/season were surprisingly un-terrible.) All in all, a below average record. If you grade them like a college GPA — very good is a 4.0, good is 3.0, etc — they grade out to a 1.84 GPA, or a C-minus.

    I was surprised at these results. I thought their draft record was stronger. But they’ve missed on more than half of their picks.


    Since WS overrated players on winning teams and underrates players on losing teams, you have to adjust for the fact that these players were drafted by the Knicks. Also, I suspect that the expected WS values that you used are numerical averages (means), rather than medians. If WS distribution is skewed, this would be a big source of bias.

    Note, I haven’t checked the WS distribution, but I think I have the numbers for last year. I can check them to see how skewed they are if anyone is interested.

    Since WS overrated players on winning teams and underrates players on losing teams

    I don’t like Win Shares, but the causality is, haha, uhhh, you know… backward, there.

    I wrote this earlier, but it’s kind of silky to talk about how well “the Knicks” draft when it’s a bunch of different front offices that did the drafting.

    I wrote this earlier, but it’s kind of silky to talk about how well “the Knicks” draft when it’s a bunch of different front offices that did the drafting.


    KP based on his production so far is worth about 15-18 million a year. His offense is good but not great, high usage and demands double teams but not as consistently efficient as one would like. His rebounding is poor but his defense is elite which more than makes up for it. Plus the Knicks have managed to be a good rebounding team even with KP’s poor rebounding so I question how much it hurts the team.

    The thing is he is young and came into the league as a project so you are not signing him for his past production but his future production. There is no reason to think KP won’t continue to improve so him getting his efficiency up doesn’t seem far-fetched. If it wasn’t for his injury giving him the max would be no question. Remember his max is 27 million a year not 30 or 35 million. So everyone needs to calm down with this supermax stuff because he doesn’t qualify.

    With the injury, things are a bit up in the air but most likely an ACL tear shouldn’t be career altering and with some insurance and health clauses, a max contract is fine. The idea of trading him for a young player and a pick or two is a terrible idea unless that young player is Ben Simmons or that pick is #1 overall because drafting a player who is even as good as KP is now is unlikely and drafting one that has half the potential to be as good as KP could be is not going to happen.

    The WS data for 2nd round picks seems pretty suspect, since most second rounders hardly get a cup of coffee in the NBA. Here is the number of players picked in the 2nd round that played 2000+ career minutes:
    2002: 9
    2003: 10
    2004: 4
    2005: 14
    2006: 8
    2007: 7
    2008: 8
    2009: 14
    2010: 5
    2011: 7
    2012: 11
    2013: 10
    2014: 8
    2015: 5 thus far
    2016: 3 thus far

    But wait, there’s more! In 2005, the names in the 14-member 2000+ club include such notables as:
    Salim Stoudemire
    Travis Diener
    Von Wafer (remember him?)
    Mickael Gelabale

    The other years have similar notables on the list.

    Also, lots of those guys only had an impact after being in and out of the G-League, D-League, or in Europe, and never played more than a few minutes for the team that drafted him. Matt Barnes (who was Knick in 2005 for 2 months and unceremoniously waived) and Hassan Whiteside are two notable examples.

    So the odds that a second round pick will have any meaningful impact in the NBA (especially for the team that drafted him!) are somewhere between 10% – 25%. As such, it’s harsh to label any second round pick that doesn’t pan out as “bad” unless compared to a team that has a significantly higher percentage of hits (and that kept them around until they hit!)

    But they’ve missed on more than half of their picks.

    Good lord. Again, WHO WAS AVAILABLE AFTER THOSE PICKS? What players should we have taken instead of Vranes? Aside from the issues Knick Fan Not in NJ points out about VORP and WS, it isn’t about the pick itself; it’s about who was available when that pick was made.

    Why is that so hard to understand? I mean …. who picked after them turned into a star? If the player the Knicks picked performed better than all but one or two players picked after them, you have to consider that a good pick, whether or not the player himself was actually good. You have to grade the pick based on who was available; whether they were good or bad in a vacuum is meaningless.

    In that context, Vranes WAS a bad pick; Matt Bonner, Kyle Korver, Zaza Pachulia, and Mo Williams were all picked afterward. But what god was picked after Thanasis? Literally no one; there wasn’t a single better option. So he was never a good player…what does that actually say about the Knicks’ drafting prowess when the players after him were all terrible? After Papanikolaou, only Kyle O’Quinn was good. After THjr, only Gobert. (Though Crabbe and Roberson are at least decent.) After Fields, nobody.

    Yes, they made mistakes – I’m looking at you, Iman, with Jimmy Butler, Isaiah Thomas, Chandler Parsons, et alia, all still on the board, and you, Jordan Hill, with DeRozan, Jrue Holliday, and Jeff Teague. But a lot of the time they did pick best player available.

    No team gets it right every time. Getting it right more than half the time is good. Not getting it right almost ever is called Sacramento. Or Charlotte. You want to know what bad drafting is, look at teams like that…wow.

    You want to know what bad drafting is, look at teams like that…wow.

    I think the takeaway here is:

    (1) There are teams that are measurably terrible at drafting. The Cavs had 3 overall #1 picks in 4 years, and 2 of them were Hall of Infamy Scrubs. The Kings and Suns have been drafting pretty high IIRC, and nothing to show for it.

    (2) The Knicks’ front offices can’t be said to have blundered high picks — because they gave them all away too early! But that doesn’t mean they’re good at drafting, either. Porzingis is not evidence of good drafting.

    (3) None of this matters, as Silky J. said, since the Knicks never re-sign their youth and have a shitty squad of overpaid veterans.

    (4) But Scott Perry and David Fizdale are not Isaiah Thomas, Scott Layden, Glen Grunwald, Larry Brown, Donnie Walsh, Jeff Hornacek, or Phil Jackson. So we can’t say that the draft process will be anything like it was in the past, so long as JD and the Straight Shot stay the fuck out of the war room on draft night. So there’s that to be hopeful about.

    I checked and the median WS last year was 1.1, while the average is 2.0, and the distribution is definitely skewed.

    As for WS overvaluing players on good teams, of course there is a correlation of bad WS and bad teams, but the causality is not all one way. The make up of the stat favors players on teams that put up good numbers overall.

    I’m definitely with Jowles re: Zion Williamson, and the best part is he’s ranked below Cam Reddish, Nasir Little, and RJ Barrett so if the Knicks do their “we can’t tank into the top spot” thing again there’s a chance we can land him. RJ Barrett, Zion, and Nasir Little are a pretty sweet top 3 and then you still have Cam Reddish, Bol Bol, Romeo Langford, and Sekou Doumbouya. The only thing that keeps me from being excited about this draft is that Boston owns a top 1 protected Sacramento pick and a top 8 protected Memphis Grizzlies pick, which almost confirms they will be trading for Anthony Davis on draft night.

    @51 I agree on all except (2) Porzingis is not evidence of good drafting. Regardless of how Porzingis turns out, the fact that he has significantly more market value than anyone drafted below him (except maybe Turner and Booker (although not everyone here likes Booker, he’s worth a ton right now) in and of itself makes him a smart pick in retrospect. What they do with that perceived value is another question entirely.

    But yes, they absolutely made a good pick there (and I would say a great pick, as in, who was a better pick from #2 to #10?). Even statistically, his VORP (your favorite these days) is 5th highest in the draft, and two players above him were picked at #27 and #40 and can’t be considered alternatives in the slot KP was picked. Let’s not forget also that it was the pick of the century thus far for them…a #4 pick in a deep draft…so the consequences of whiffing were enormous. Considering that KP was not the consensus pick there, they did very, very well, it’s ridiculous to argue otherwise.

    Devin Booker would have driven me from the lists permanently.

    Although he will be a Knick someday, I have no doubt on that score.

    The thing is he is young and came into the league as a project so you are not signing him for his past production but his future production.

    If we pay him based on past production we could conceivably get surplus value from his contract. If we pay him based on speculative future production we will not.

    The problem is the Knicks don’t have a choice to pay him less. He’s not taking less than the max or very close to it so trying to get surplus value by signing him to a bargain contract is not happening.

    I never really thought about it this way, but I don’t think it’s guaranteed KP will sign a long term deal in New York next summer if we don’t get him a playoff team/superstar in free agency. Like maybe we can’t get Kyrie Irving or land a combination like Tobias Harris and Terry Rozier. He could take his QO and walk in 2020 at age 25.

    There is zero chance KP, coming off an ACL tear, takes the QO and I hope the Knicks’ front office knows that. I understand that there’s value in keeping him happy even if you’re positive you can keep him for at least another few years, but the QO is a completely empty threat.

    But Scott Perry and David Fizdale are not Isaiah Thomas, Scott Layden, Glen Grunwald, Larry Brown, Donnie Walsh, Jeff Hornacek, or Phil Jackson. So we can’t say that the draft process will be anything like it was in the past

    Fair enough.

    Devin Booker would have driven me from the lists permanently.

    Although he will be a Knick someday, I have no doubt on that score.

    Alas, there was a time when a 21yo who shot at a >561 TS% on a 31% usage and averaged 5 rebs, 5assts and a steal per 36 would be viewed positively.

    Don’t add another one to the list Owen, please, I’m just starting to believe the inevitable destiny of the Knicks signing Rudy Gay is miraculously not happening. There’s still Tyreke Evans and Andrew Wiggins left on the list.

    I think KP would be insane to take the qualifying offer, there will certainly be a team offering a very good deal to him if we don’t. Even if he’s 100% confident in his health and the Knicks somehow don’t offer him the max, it’s not happening.

    At this point I would be comfortable getting him back at something like 4 years between 80-100 million, but let’s hope he does improve and is able to stay healthy. The best case scenario would obviously be a Curry situation, where he somehow accepts a below market deal and then improves, but that’s not realistic at all to expect.

    …and Isiah will return as gm and his first move will be to hire Rambis as coach, only to fire him midseason to replace him with Mark Jackson.

    It’d be nice if we could give him a contract that was full of injury contingencies, though I don’t know if that’s very likely. It’d also be nice if it were for a moderate amount guaranteed with increases based on performance like Davis had. We might get that if his recovery goes slowly. Injury guarantees are the more likely scenario of the two, but I have no sense of how likely. Probably not very. KP is far more popular with the fan base than management is, GianaDani’s right about that much. They’ll probably give him too much money because they don’t think they’ve got any leverage.

    There is virtually no chance that KP agrees to anything less than the max, or that the Knicks don’t pay him.

    I think he will get close to the max, but maybe he will get a small discount for signing a longer contract or something like that. I think if he was a restricted free agent, some team would offer him the max, because they would know they have to do their best to overpay to get a player that way. That wouldn’t be good for the Knicks.

    If KP had qualified for the leaderboards, he would have been 12th in PPG.

    Here are the players above him:


    He’s getting a max.

    Side question: Z-man, would you trade KP for Giannis straight up, right now?

    The Davis and Embiid contracts are instructive though. Max money if you hit certain production targets (he lost out on some big money from not making first team NBA if I recall correctly), and injury protections for the Sixers if he isn’t available to play enough his guaranteed money shrinks. If Perry is very good at his job KP’s next deal will have elements of those.

    @67 of course! I’d feel dirty bc I always favor a homegrown guy, but thats a no-brainer.

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