Knicks Morning News (2016.07.24)

  • [NYPost] Jeremy Lin opens up: On Knicks heartbreak, racism and Fitzpatrick
    (Saturday, July 23, 2016 1:03:21 PM)

    New Brooklyn Net, and former Knick, Jeremy Lin took a shot at some Q&A with Post columnist Steve Serby. Q: When you knew your Knicks days were ending, how sad was that for you? A: I was really, really sad. I was sad the way everything went down, ’cause nothing happened the way I thought…

  • [NYTimes] W.N.B.A. Rescinds Fines for Players’ Pregame Activism
    (Saturday, July 23, 2016 11:37:16 PM)

    Three teams had been fined $5,000 and players had been fined $500 each for wearing black warm-up shirts in response to recent shootings involving the police.

  • [NYTimes] Better Late Than Never, Pullout Hands Australian Hearn Rio Berth
    (Sunday, July 24, 2016 4:48:31 AM)

    Sixteen years after being an unused reserve at her home Sydney Olympics, Australian rider Sue Hearn will finally make her Games debut at the age of 60 in Rio.

  • [NYTimes] More ‘B Team’ Than ‘Dream Team’ as U.S. Eye Rio Basketball Gold
    (Sunday, July 24, 2016 1:21:33 AM)

    No Stephen Curry? No LeBron James? No problem. Despite missing the game’s two best players the U.S. men’s basketball team are still the slam dunk favorite to return home from the Rio Olympics with the gold medal.

  • [NYTimes] WNBA President Lauds Activism, Wishes It Was Kept Off Court
    (Saturday, July 23, 2016 6:09:31 AM)

    WNBA President Lisa Borders applauds the league’s players for taking a stance on social issues. She just wishes the activism was kept off the court.

  • [NYTimes] Olympics: Funky or Classic? Medal Ceremony Gets Musical Makeover
    (Saturday, July 23, 2016 4:00:27 PM)

    Olympic organizers will bring typical Brazilian informality to the medal ceremonies at Rio2016 with three different kinds of podium music depending on whether the sports are considered classical, pop or cool, officials said.

  • [SNY Knicks] Derrick Rose: The evolving offensive player
    (Saturday, July 23, 2016 11:22:22 AM)

    We’ve seen Derrick Rose’s best, but can Rose return to the Russell Westbrook-esque athlete he was as a young player in the NBA?

  • 32 replies on “Knicks Morning News (2016.07.24)”

    Yeah, I don’t know why you have that feeling either.
    The Cavs set a record for most 3PM in a playoff game. The Warriors set a Finals record for most 3PM in a single game. In 2013, the Spurs set the Finals record against the Heat.
    Steph Curry has 11 games in which he’s made nine or more 3PM in the regular season. He is the two-time MVP and more than deserving of each one.
    Truly… how’s it goink?

    Is it easier for this particular Knicks roster to upgrade its 3p%/become 3p specialists
    or
    become succesful by overachieving on D and run like hell on the fast break ?

    Honestly we can run Rose/Noah P&Rs with kick out options to Lee, Melo, and KP and most teams would struggle guarding those five. We could give it to Noah in the high post and have him destroy teams with his excellent passing to back door cutters, or have him set the screen on dump off passes to Lee/Melo where they get a wide open look from 18 feet. We can run Rose, Lee, Thomas, Melo, and KP out there and shoot teams into oblivion with crazy floor spacing.

    The Knicks can shoot a lot of threes if that were their interest, and hopefully Hornacek’s hybrid triangle resembles Kerr’s offense more than Fisher/Rambis’ offense. However, the Knicks’ only shot at an efficient offense is if Rose and KP double the rate at which they are fouled and if Rose can shoot threes in the low 30 percent range rather than the high 20s. No matter what we do, we need to be taking/making more shots at the foul line and three point line. If both of KP and Rose can take around 6 FTA a night that would improve the offense a lot.

    massive, agree that more FT attempts are important. In a larger sense, that is a product of getting defenses off-balance so that they can’t defend w/o fouling. But increasing their eFG% while keeping their opponent’s eFG% low is even more important, and that doesn’t include FT rate or %. Good teams generally have a significant differential between their eFG% and their opponent’s.

    With KP and Noah, teams should have a really hard time converting lay ups against us this season, and if those two can play without fouling they will be a nightmare. I really like the Knicks’ defensive potential, but their offensive eFG% doesn’t seem likely to be very good. Rose, KP, and Melo (the guys who will lead this team in usage) are all likely to take a bunch of mid range jumpers. We won’t be blessed with a guy who can maintain a shot chart like Steph Curry or DeAndre Jordan, so I think the best case scenario for our eFG% is middle of the pack. However, I think we can do a good job limiting turnovers, rebounding, and converting at the foul line, though, as those three are the strengths of our front court.

    I expect KP and Melo to take more 3s this year by quite a bit than they did under Fisher and Rambis. I expect us to be somewhere between 10-15 in 3PAr next year.

    So you decided to look up the number of SA, and knowingly omit that SA is #7 in 2PA and #3 in 2P%??

    Not that it should change our conception of the midrange, but you cherry pick stats to make your point, then act totally offended if someone is not thorough when making theirs.

    The fuck are you talking about? That was my whole point — they are near the bottom of the league in the two stats that everyone else seems to go after: 3PA and FTA. And they are very much an anomaly in that they have an extremely high TS% without taking many of those high-reward shots… because they actually have players who can shoot.

    “You heard of Phil Jackson? He’s like the gold standard. Triangle, bitch!”

    Will Smith in his latest movie.

    Melo and KP each averaged around 4 3PA/36. I think KP should be around 5 attempts a game and Melo around 6, so that’s about 246 more attempts between the two. We have enough good 3PT shooters to be taking a lot of attempts a game from deep, but will we actually do it? I just have a hard time trusting Phil and his triangle mandate.

    I was thinking, though, that a good ground level of production would be Felton’s first year here. Rose can be a guy who serves his purpose as a penetrator that kicks the offense into gear even if he himself is a shitty finisher, and I don’t think he’ll hurt the offense too much.

    in Jowles, defense, I sort of thought that too. But I disagree that they “actually have players who can shoot” more than most other teams. Again, I refer to the difference in shooting for LMA and David West as examples. It’s not that they can shoot, it’s that they take more good shots and less bad shots. Look at LMA’s pre/post ASG splits…it’s obvious that once he caught on to the way the Spurs run things, it positively impacted his shooting %s.

    An 18-footer is not a bad shot for most NBA players than can shoot, e.g. LMA or Melo. It is only a bad shot if there is a better shot available (or would be if the ball was moved), like when it is contested early in the clock, or even in the clock when the ball didn’t move. For many, if not most, NBA shooters, eFG% is about both shot selection and the offense’s ability to create good looks. The Spurs have made shot selection into an art form.

    Can the Knicks take better shots? We’ll see, but that’s the key for them. one of the things I noticed in watching Rose’s highlights from 2015-16 is that on many of his drives, there was a guy open that he ignored. The highlights are only of his makes, but clearly he missed tons of layups and other shots last year….and before…that should have never been taken. That’s the challenge for Hornacek and Jackson.

    It’s not rocket science to tweak the Triangle a little bit to generate more 3 point opportunities. Really basic example is that when they set up the strong side Triangle and instead of entering the ball in to the post or swing it to the wing they have the post player come up to initiate a high PNR with the lead guard would be to have the player at the weak side pinch post space out to the wing or corner behind the arc. They actually did that with more frequency under Rambis than they did Fisher for whatever reason.

    in Jowles, defense, I sort of thought that too. But I disagree that they “actually have players who can shoot” more than most other teams. Again, I refer to the difference in shooting for LMA and David West as examples. It’s not that they can shoot, it’s that they take more good shots and less bad shots. Look at LMA’s pre/post ASG splits…it’s obvious that once he caught on to the way the Spurs run things, it positively impacted his shooting %s.

    Maybe, but maybe he just made more of the preferred shots he’s taken for the last fifteen years of his organized basketball life.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WNw8V0d_vR0\

    Watch this video. Do you think there’s something exceptional about his shot attempts in it? Do you think his ISO attempts are somehow appreciably better because he’s wearing black? Or that his pick-and-pop attempts with Leonard and Parker are that much better because of the post-ASB english they put on the ball when they kick it out to him for a shot?

    I mean, sure, maybe he “got comfortable,” but that sounds more like you deferring to “synergy” instead of “individual talent,” which is something you do a lot.

    Come on, Jowles. First, you were puzzled that the Spurs would go for Aldridge in the first place, but deferred to Buford and Pop. Second, you say yourself that Pop is an outlier that defies the statistical trend and makes players more efficient. Now this?

    Why did his individual talent not work as well previously? Why did he have career highs in WS48 (by .046!!!) WP48 (by .033) and TS%? Why did he play so well in the playoffs for the first time in his career? Did he take a daily dose of individual talent pills after he signed? Or was he playing with better players in a better system under a better coach?

    Or are WS48 and WP48 just flawed metrics?

    LMA’s assisted basket percentage went from .468 in his last year with Portland to a whopping .660 last year. His last year in Portland, he took 19% of his shots from 0-3 feet, last year that shot up to 28%. Set up a guy like LMA with lots of easy looks and of course he’s going to make more of his shots.

    Using a player correctly obviously matters, and great coaches like Pop are great because they are able to get the most production out of their most talented players. Hopefully Hornacek will bring some of this kind of thinking to the Knicks, but the Spurs also have a lot of guys who are fucking incredible shooters. They were #2 in the league in eFG% last year. The Spurs had a .526 eFG% as a team, while the Knicks had two PLAYERS who had a .526 eFG% or better, Lopez and Calderon, and both of those guys have been replaced by players with a piss-poor eFG%.

    You don’t rack up a .526 eFG% with interaction effects alone. You have to have a lot of guys who are good at throwing the ball into the basket. All the interaction effects in the world aren’t going to make cruddy shooters into good ones.

    That’s very fair, JK47.

    I would counter by saying that we replaced Afflalo with Lee, 20yo Porzingis with 21yo Porzingis, and Melo who was the only volume scorer on the team with Melo who will have more opportunity to defer. And then there’s the coach. But clearly it will be a challenge to get this team’s eFG% north of .500 (last year, league average was .502, so that’s a good goal.)

    Secret to success: MOVE THE ROCK!

    Why did his individual talent not work as well previously? Why did he have career highs in WS48 (by .046!!!) WP48 (by .033) and TS%? Why did he play so well in the playoffs for the first time in his career? Did he take a daily dose of individual talent pills after he signed? Or was he playing with better players in a better system under a better coach?

    I didn’t argue that he wasn’t more productive last year. By nearly any measure, he was.

    I was arguing that it’s a suspect narrative to suggest that after the all-star break, he finally “understood” the Spurs’ system. The assisted FGA percentage suggests that he was put into a familiar scoring situation more often, not that he was suddenly being asked to take 16-foot jumpers for the first time in his career and he “caught on.”

    OK, but I think it’s pretty logical to say that it takes a while for a player feel comfortable in a new offense with new players who have been together for a while. I can’t prove it, although I am guessing that there are some mid-season quotes from LMA himself supporting this POV.

    And actually, I agree that LMA is a good shooter, but no better than Melo…i.e. Melo on the Spurs has a similar bump in efficiency, although mybe not right away.

    The fuck are you talking about? That was my whole point — they are near the bottom of the league in the two stats that everyone else seems to go after: 3PA and FTA. And they are very much an anomaly in that they have an extremely high TS% without taking many of those high-reward shots… because they actually have players who can shoot.

    Mmmm… I dont understand. If that was your point, why do you point out the percentages of the shots they take the least (and less than the average of the league). Shouldnt you point their success shooting the 2P?

    It seemed to me that you were arguing the his strong percentages at 3P% offset their low 3PA, but its actually their strong percentages at the midrange that offset it and makes them such a great offensive team.

    They’re a great offensive team because they shoot the ball well from EVERYWHERE. Here’s where they rank in FG% for shots of each distance:

    2p%: 3rd
    3P%: 2nd
    0-3′: 2nd
    3-10′: 1st
    10-16′: 2nd
    16′-3PT: 4th

    You don’t win 67 games in the without being elite at pretty much everything.

    I was arguing that it’s a suspect narrative to suggest that after the all-star break, he finally “understood” the Spurs’ system. The assisted FGA percentage suggests that he was put into a familiar scoring situation more often, not that he was suddenly being asked to take 16-foot jumpers for the first time in his career and he “caught on.”

    That sounds suspiciously like synergy.

    My argument is that it’s not that the Spurs’ players are inherently better shooters, but that their offensive system results in shots from all areas on the court a) being less contested and b) in individual player sweet spots.

    It seemed to me that you were arguing the his strong percentages at 3P% offset their low 3PA, but its actually their strong percentages at the midrange that offset it and makes them such a great offensive team.

    It’s odd to me how few 3PA and FTA they take, but it doesn’t really matter because they convert opportunities. Ultimately, it seems smarter to avoid midrange shots because most players are bad at them, but somehow the Spurs aren’t. It’s weird and hard to explain.

    If you give a team that takes 80% midrange shots and converts 60%, I’ll show you a Finals team. Most of the time, this is not the case. If you shoot 35% from 3 and 45% from 2, you should be doing everything in your power to take more 3 attempts. The Spurs are a weird, trend-bucking team. I really don’t know how to explain them.

    That sounds suspiciously like synergy.

    The idea that there are no interaction effects in basketball is never one I’ve championed. The idea that you can take a terrible three-point shooter (Derrick Rose) and suddenly make him effective from 3 via “spacing” and “system” is one that I’ve argued against.

    The Carmelo argument over the years has been, “He needs floor spacing! Better shooters around him! A secondary shot creator! A stretch PF! Then he’ll achieve his final form!” and that’s one that I reject. If you put Carmelo on a team with 4 high-schoolers, his numbers would drop. Of course they would. But putting him on the floor with Chris Paul and Steph Curry is not instantly going to give him the 3PT shot he’s never quite sustained.

    My argument is that it’s not that the Spurs’ players are inherently better shooters, but that their offensive system results in shots from all areas on the court a) being less contested and b) in individual player sweet spots.

    It’s weird how in that 30 minute talk from Gregg Popovich, he basically says that they don’t choose players who can’t shoot. They also don’t choose players that refuse to buy into their system and put team play first, but he also mentions the importance of finding players who can already ball.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XBZTPtENQCY

    he basically says that they don’t choose players who can’t shoot.

    Our difference in opinion lies in your use of the word “can’t”.

    I agree that it is unlikely that Rose will ever become a good 3-pt shooter. Backing off of him and letting him take 3’s is usually a good strategy.

    I vehemently disagree with your assertion or suggestion that Melo can’t shoot. Backing off of him and letting him shoot 3’s is a terrible strategy.

    Melo has the same problems that Aldridge had before he landed on the Spurs.

    Pop would have no problem with having Melo on his team.

    What if instead of going to the Spurs Melo just didn’t take 4-5 stupid shots per game?

    Does anybody think Melo has a shot to lead Team USA in rebounds? I don’t think DJ and Boogie will see too many minutes until we get to Spain, and even then neither Gasol brother is playing so they’re not exactly huge. Maybe if we see Lithuania those guys will get a lot of minutes, but I think Team USA is going to use Melo and Draymond as the primary front court guys. He led them in rebounds tonight and as the elder statesman his minutes are pretty much guaranteed. It would be fun to see. Melo has a shot to retire as the greatest Olympic basketball player ever; how cool would that be?

    What odds will one of you guys give me for Rose scoring at +540 TS?

    The problem with this is that it’d be so low it wouldn’t make sense to even set a line. It’s like setting a line for Gary Johnson to win the presidential election. I know that there’s no more than a 1% chance of that happening. So I could easily say I’ll give you 50-1 or 100-1. But then what am I gaining by this? Would anyone lay decent money on that? No you throw a few bucks at it. I don’t think my wife would be OK risking paying out a grand to win $10. In plain terms, it’s not worth getting out of bed to do.

    Realistically for Rose, I’d set that line at 10-1, maybe 15-1. Again not worth getting out of bed over.

    Mike, Rose has surpassed that mark once and came within .08 another time. Gary Johnson hasn’t ever come close to even getting a sniff at the ballot of a major party, much less won.

    But 10-1 or 15-1 are probably fair. I mean, even before he got hurt, he was hardly a lock to top that mark.

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