2016 FA Roundtable: Joakim Noah

KURYLO: I really liked Joakim Noah in Florida, and I like him as a pro. I’ve always been keen on players that rebound and defend, because I think there’s a huge deficiency in the market in that area. Or maybe it goes back to my high hopes for Mike Sweetney at the start of this blog. The Knicks are a franchise that have yet to succeed without defensive-minded big man in the middle. Think about every great Knicks team, and you can identify them by the center: Reed, Ewing, Camby, or Chandler. Throw in Noah’s ability to pass and his unique brand of joie de vivre, and you have a player that’s hard to hate.

Especially if it's this suit...
Especially if it’s this suit…

The problem is Noah’s health. His true shooting percentage decline (.531, .482, .406) is a scary proposition. Unlike Rose or Melo, Noah’s value isn’t tied to scoring, so a mediocre efficiency won’t be a death knell for Joakim. However Noah has frequently missed a chunk of games. His career average is just 64 games a season. In his 9 year career, he’s only managed 68 or more games 3 times. So perhaps I’m being sold on a bill of goods that won’t arrive. Unlike Rose, I can live with a Noah that’s not very efficient. However if he’s watching 20 games a year from the bench in a suit, then exactly how does this help the team?

Perhaps this trade isn’t about tapping into the Knicks’ mystique at the 5. Perhaps this trade is just Phil Jackson’s attempt to karmically re-align the franchise from the events of October 4th, 2005?

PLUGH: I love Joakim Noah. I tweeted that he’s NYC basketball in its purest distilled form. He’s infinity on the scoville scale. He plays like he’s on fire and he has the sort of attitude that New Yorkers like to project both on and off the court. “I’m ready to be an ANIMAL for this city,” he said to Rebecca Haarlowe. If Noah is reasonably healthy over the course of his contract, he has Oakley, Mason, Starks-level eternal love headed his way. And that’s the thing, right? The Knicks moves are all high risk gambles on guys with recent health problems. I almost typed “issues,” but that’s underselling the depth of the situation. Noah will earn part of his contract by injecting a level of fierceness to the club, but to be worth any of the deal he’ll have to be the double-double version of Noah for 70+ games a season. It’s worth noting that in his 29 game flop of a season last year….the one he spent on the Bulls bench under Fred Hoiberg…he actually put up career highs in rebounding and assist rates. Just sayin’…there’s some sneaky upside to his deal if he’s actually on the court enough. (Please be on the court enough.)

FISHER-COHEN: Outside the context of the Knicks, I don’t mind this signing. Noah is unlikely to ever reach the heights of 13/14. Hell, he’s probably unlikely given his age to ever repeat his 14/15 numbers. But unlike Rose, his injury history isn’t so devastating that a recovery is out of the question.

It’s a high risk, high reward move that might make a team like the Celtics or Blazers into dark horse title contenders in the best case. The problem is the Knicks are a bad team and still aren’t that great with best case Noah. We were an old team last year, and the moves this summer make our starters older than three of the four conference finalists’ last year. I’m not down with a plan that gets us to “not great” for a year or two in a best case scenario.

I don’t mind trying to exploit, as Knickerblogger Owen wrote, “the new market inefficiency” of injured players. For the Knicks though, that should mean gambling on younger players who had down years due to injury like Donatas Motiejunas or Meyers Leonard.

CRONIN: I, too, love Joakim Noah. Who doesn’t love Joakim Noah? Signing Joakim Noah to a four-year deal for $18 million per year is not a good idea, though. But at least he has a very good chance of being a good player next season, which is good when you’re paying a guy $18 million.

PLUGH: I think I’m the only person who’s extremely bullish on the Noah signing, outside of the chronically optimistic subsection of Knicks fans, who I’m convinced are doing whippets 20 hours a day. The contract length isn’t ideal, but I think Noah was Thibodeau’s MVP all those years the Bulls were battling the Celtics and Heat in the playoffs. The Bulls missed Noah much more than Rose during their injury fits, and I think he’ll be as important to the team as Jason Kidd was in his one season in New York. I’m feeling good about Noah’s health, generally, and I think he’s going to be one of the best free agent signings the Knicks have ever made (which, of course, is a low bar.) I could be wrong.

UDWARY: I agree with everyone, a healthy Noah is a great player that I would love on my team. The real problem is that he hasn’t been healthy the past two seasons and is in the stage of his career where productivity usually begins to fall off a cliff. Despite that, we signed the guy to a 4 year contract. If he stays healthy, we are all going to love Noah this year, but how long will he stay healthy? If we are willing to play Porzingis big minutes at center, and limit Noah’s minutes to under 30 per game, then I think he has a good chance of still being productive until year 3 at least. My suspicion, though, is that we are going to be struggling early this season, and Noah will end up playing big minutes because he will be our best performing player. Big minutes on an old Noah is a sure disaster waiting to happen.

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Mike Kurylo

Mike Kurylo is the founder and editor of KnickerBlogger.net. His book on the 2012 Knicks, "We’ll Always Have Linsanity," is on sale now. Follow him on twitter (@KnickerBlogger).

107 thoughts to “2016 FA Roundtable: Joakim Noah”

  1. From the last thread….

    Pretty sad that, months before the season even starts, some “fans” of the team are actually hoping for a crash and burn.

    My take exactly. Interesting note is that Vegas Odds for the Knicks to win it all in 2016-17 is 100-1. I’ll take that! Vegas Odds

    As for Noah, I agree with all of the round-table guys. Health is key. My biggest concern is the lack of a proven backup. O’Quinn, Hernangomez and Plumlee are not enough. I view O’q as a power forward and the other two are fringy at best – good gambles, but not solid enough for me. Getting a true B/U center is something I would like to see. Maybe STAT? I know he’s old and not great defensively. But if Noah should miss a couple of weeks, I think he could give us some solid minutes. There are other choices and I wouldn’t want to go into the season without a viable backup plan. This team does have to deal with significant injury risk.

  2. i like plugh’s analogy of the kidd signing with noah… he’s exactly that kind of effect on the defensive end….

    but i can’t help but think it will turn out the same way….

  3. I totally see the Knicks resting their starters fairly early and fairly often.

    I’m liking the bench and it’s youth (23-26, Lance is the old guy at 28). The bench also has a good mix of shooting, athleticism and defence, as does the roster as a whole. I’m encouraged.

    I’m thinking that limiting Rose, Noah and Melo to 70-75 games and 2000 min is what we’ll probably see.

  4. I just read something where the 76’ers think they’ll have three rookie of the year candidates in Simmons, Embiid and Saric. Could this be the year when things come together for them? How do we stack up against a healthy Sixer lineup?

    We interrupt your regularly scheduled comments for this REALITY CHECK:

    What was the hope when Phil became Prez? He’d be the one figure to have the clout to stand up to Dolan and Melo. And what happened? Couldn’t even get a partial NTC clause (LA team where Melo’s got a home), then let his 123m investment limp around for a couple of months, and most recently went all in on “win now” because Melo wasn’t happy.

    Now some would say no big deal. Really? If Phil had shut Melo down after his injury, we’d have finished last and drafted KAT. If Phil had negotiated a partial NTC to LA, we could have flipped Melo for Lakers pick and selected KP at Gaines’ direction. We’d have KAT and KP. We’d be in a better position for the future than the Twolves or 76ers.

    We now return you to your regularly scheduled discussion of why going all in on two 32yos is the best future for the Knicks.

  5. I’m worried about his health, but not his shooting. I think last year was a fluke. Noah took only 130 shots, 98 at the rim, almost all the rest from within 10 feet. It just seems like a fluke and a small sample size for a guy who shot .490 for his career. Maybe it was injury related? maybe it was just luck.

    And, if he’s going to spend 20 games in a suit, the dude looks pretty great in a suit.

  6. Noah reminds me of a Riley Knick. I can get behind the transaction just for that reason. Always loved him as a player and as an interview and have always wished he had started his career as a Knick rather than you know, trading the pick that got him in a franchise destroying trade.

    I fear injury but I do have the feeling that this acquisition will turn out to be satisfying on some levels. Is it optimal, in the sense of moving the NYK towards a championship? No. But overall, ok with it, in isolation from the Rose trade.

    I mean, not that ok with it. But there are veterans we could have acquired who would have been much worse.

  7. Pretty sad that, months before the season even starts, some “fans” of the team are actually hoping for a crash and burn.

    If you want to root hard for a second round exit feel free, but don’t fucking denigrate the fans who want more than that.

  8. By the same token, don’t fucking denigrate the fans who want to hope for the best and try to envision positive outcomes.

  9. Common guys, we already know the result of lopez Calderon and grant as our players.
    These movement will give us hope and that is a realistic hope. I am excited for this season.

  10. How do we stack up against a healthy Sixer lineup?

    Is this a serious question?

    The Sixers are all upside, the Knicks are all downside. Which would you rather have, going forward?

    The Knicks may win more games than the Sixers this year. And, in the end, that may be all that they have to show for this newest incarnation of the Mecca of Basketball.

  11. I’m glad to see Sasha back on a vet minimum deal. He really played better last year than nearly everyone thought he would. Still, hopefully he’ll play very little this year; otherwise, things have gone really bad again.

    I wonder who will rip this deal? I seem to recall last year some people absolutely livid about Phil resigning LT for a bit more than the minimum…

  12. Sasha needs to find his shot. If his shot is goin in, he becomes a really good rotation player. I don’t think he will beat out Holliday, but if he can shoot better than last season, then I like this signing. Theoretically, he shouldn’t be asked to make as many plays as he had to last season, so this could be a good thing.

  13. “don’t fucking denigrate the fans”
    Why is it that, whenever you disagree with some people on this site, they immediately resort to profanity and name calling? If you want to interpret my saying that it is “sad” that some “fans” are affirmatively rooting for the team to stink as “fucking denigrating,” you are free to do so. However, I think that being called a sad fan is a whole lot less denigrating than what people who want to hope for the best are regularly called by a small, but vociferous, minority of people here.

  14. @12 The Knicks are all downside??

    I realize that the team has gone in on “win now” mode, but we have KP on a rookie deal for several more years, Hernangomez on a VERY team friendly 4-year contract, Kuzminskas who looks pretty nice as a bench player, and all our draft picks. Even if you hate what the team just did, and even if you think they’re going to fuck everything up in the 2017 free agent market, the Knicks are far from all downside. KP alone is a guarantee there’s very nice upside.

  15. Why is it that, whenever you disagree with some people on this site, they immediately resort to profanity and name calling?

    Well I actually didn’t call anyone anything, and if you found the profanity off-putting I apologize for that aspect of the post. My point stands though. You questioned the fandom of the people who, correctly, see a second round exit as the ceiling for this team. You might be okay with that, and that’s fine! But I, and others, are not and for that reason hope the experiment fails so we can take another approach sooner rather than later.

  16. Mike P– that is true. The Knicks are not all downside. But compared to the Sixers, you do need to squint pretty hard to see a brighter future for the players on the Knicks roster over the players on the Sixers roster. If Colangelo called you up and offered Okafor, Embiid, Noel, Simmons, and Saric for Porzingis and Hernangomez, you wouldn’t hang up, right?

  17. @16
    And why can’t some people like me be kind of in the middle? I don’t like the Rose trade and am very concerned about the Noah signing (I grade both a D), but I like everything else that Phil has done this offseason.

    IMO, the only unabashed “optimist” is reub, who I think just tries to antagonize the 3 or 4 of the darkest doomslingers. One or two of them, however, seem to knee-jerk attack anyone who tries to be a bit hopeful, quickly resorting to mockery. Ah well…
    :-)

  18. If anyone thinks they have the ultimate answer to what’s happening with the Knicks (or in any aspect of life) they might want to take a step back and consider things more carefully.

    Really, no one knows what’s going to happen with the Knicks in 2016-17 or in any of the years immediately after. It’s fair to see things as rosy. It’s fair to see things as gloomy. The truth is, there’s probably a whole lot of grey area about what’s going to unfold. Optimism is always a good thing, provided it’s balanced with a healthy respect for all logical arguments. Pessimism can be a dangerous thing when it becomes chronic cynicism. Being optimistic, but open minded, cautious, and realistic is probably the way to go.

    I’m “meh” about the Rose deal. I LOVE the Noah deal. You’ll see a variety of perspectives from me in the coming days as our roundtable continues to roll out. I think the key to having a healthy community around our shared interest in the Knicks is to avoid being too evangelical about your hope or your despair. Understand it as your own perspective, and discuss things with one another in a way that shows some willingness to be open.

    That’s just my two cents, though. I prefer to be a part of a community where disagreement is met with a respect for the humanity on the other side of the screen. I think we mainly do a good job of that here…

  19. totally unrelated, but I followed an ESPN link yesterday in the Duncan section that showed a set of local commercials that the Spurs do for the HEB supermarket chain in San Antonio. Look it up if you have time, it’s amazing.

  20. A 2nd round playoff exit would represent a big sign of improvement of the past few years of ineptitude. So hoping for that next year doesn’t seem to be such a terrible thing.

  21. @21 +1 it’s not a sin or some sign of stupidity to want and hope for our team to be good, and thus to think about how it might happen haha.

  22. There’s a difference between hoping the Knicks will win 48 games and thinking there’s a good chance they win 48 games

  23. What’s Phil’s grade for his tenure if KP makes a big jump this year and next year’s lineup is Westbrook or Paul, Lee, Melo, KP, and Noah? A+? That will be the best Knicks team in decades, and that’s what Phil came here to establish.

    Complaining about so-called “value” moves made at the margins of mediocre NBA rosters is pointless. There have been thousands of roster moves involving Eastern Conference teams the past few years. In terms of winning a championship, only two have mattered: LeBron going to Miami and then Cleveland.

    Phil nurtured the development of Jordan/Pippen and Kobe; they became legends and champions. I have a feeling he thinks Noah can help KP max out his own potential. And that’s all that matters if the Knicks are going to have a chance to win.

  24. DRed yeah, but that’s exactly what I’m saying. As someone who hopes the knicks win 48 games it is interesting to think about how that might happen, especially during times of the year like this when there’s not much else goink on basketball wise. Do I think there’s a good chance the win 48 games? I don’t know, likely not, but I’m gonna hope for it until they lose their 35th game.

  25. Noah’s on-court production: who knows? Noah as KP’s mentor: perfect.
    Our future lies in Krista’balls.

  26. I could see Zinger playing half his minutes at center this year, giving Noah plenty of rest. We probably should try and emulate the quick shooting lineup that Golden State has (w a 7’3″ guy in the middle) but Rose and Jennings kinda kill that. Weird that Phil hasn’t prioritized perimeter shooting at the point guard position this year, but if you at least have shooters at the other 4 slots with Zinger at center, you can open up the middle for a driving Rose (if he can still do that).

  27. if the knicks manage to get cp3 or westbrook it would be an A for phil…. but that’s really a far off assumption… if the knicks got conley i would have given phil a similar grade….

    in terms of winning a championship only a few moves do matter…. but in terms of competing long term all those little decisions do matter…. detroit, utah, grizzlies, blazers, toronto, dallas, houston and the celtics all have done well in those little decisions and should be pretty good for the foreseeable future and none of them even had the benefit of a top 5 draft pick… the old kings and suns and pistons teams were built in the same fashion also….

    we’re more like the wizards and the pelicans… we scored on a high draft pick… but failing with the rest of the roster….

  28. I could see Zinger playing half his minutes at center this year, giving Noah plenty of rest. We probably should try and emulate the quick shooting lineup that Golden State has (w a 7’3? guy in the middle) but Rose and Jennings kinda kill that. Weird that Phil hasn’t prioritized perimeter shooting at the point guard position this year, but if you at least have shooters at the other 4 slots with Zinger at center, you can open up the middle for a driving Rose (if he can still do that).

    Yeah, I could imagine a lineup of Rose-Lee-Lance-Melo-KP being pretty tough to guard. Run high screen and rolls b/w Rose-KP and have Lee, Lance, and Melo spot up.

  29. @knickterp

    I think that’s a view that has cost the Knicks dearly. Ever read the “One Red Paperclip” story? That’s a story that in my opinion applies even more to the NBA marketplace, where you can swap downward trending assets for upward trending ones pretty easily (and where GMs often find themselves in situations where they must choose between what’s best for the team and their own job security), than to real life, where the marketplace has one clear currency (money!) into which everything can be clearly translated.

    In other words, the value of a paperclip is the same to most people. In the NBA though, a “paperclip” can be a lot more valuable to one team than another. Veterans are really valuable to win now teams while young players and picks are much more valuable to bad teams. It’s a marketplace rife with mutually beneficial trade opportunities.

    There are plenty of real NBA examples of “one red paperclip” stories, but one that most are familiar with is the Rocket’s acquisition of James Harden: In 2010 Morey traded aging Rafer Alston to a desperate Magic team with Jameer Nelson hurt. Got back former late first round pick 22 year old Kyle Lowry, who had disappointed so far in his career.

    He then gave Lowry lots of minutes and time to develop and then flipped him three years later (at which point he was a decent starter) to another desperate team — the Raptors, who were coming off 22 and 23 win seasons.

    That unprotected pick (along with Jeremy Lamb) became the key pieces in the Harden deal.

    So you can trade nearly washed up veterans for young players whose teams have lost patience over and over and keep upgrading long term value, turning a paperclip into a house, or you can do the reverse, in which case your house eventually becomes a paperclip.

  30. It’s really hard to say we’re failing with the rest of the roster.

    Lee is solid, at a very good price. Shouldn’t decline until his fourth year. Provides exactly what the team needs on both sides of the ball. (Does a ball have sides?)

    Noah is fantastic at his price. He may, however, only play half the games over the next four years. On the other hand, WE DON’T KNOW. So, sure, he’s had some injuries, and it’s reasonable to argue that there is too much risk to that signing, but…”failing”??? He’s a Top 5 center and makes the whole team better on D. We will be slinging hallelujahs early and often that he’s a Knick.

    Jennings is actually great for $5 mil and one year, and I never liked Jennings. But $5 mil for one year? C’mon.

    No idea how Willy and the Kuz will perform in the NBA, so again, hard to say that’s failing. It’s also hard to say it’s succeeding. WE DON’T KNOW.

    Melo: if you really think having Melo on your team is a fail, then I don’t know what to tell you. Overrated? Sure. On Lebron’s level? Not even close. Too old for KP’s timeline? Absolutely, and for that reason alone we should have moved him. But a “failure”? He’s a pretty complete player, including on D. I hated the trade that brought him here, I hated his tank on D’Antoni, I hate that we gave him a NTC, but it’s pretty obvious he’s a good player who helps his team win.

    Rose: OK, yeah, he sucks. FOR ONE YEAR.

    Look, this isn’t my ideal team. But you can’t say Phil is failing to sign good players. And if the team does OK, and if Russ or CP3 signs here, it will be a legitimate contender for ECF next year..with mostly the same players. How is that failure?

  31. @latke –

    Every NBA house becomes a paperclip at some point. (Excepting the Spurs, I guess.) That’s how it goes. The irony is that, as our vets fade, our most important player, KP, will be ascending, and as the deals for the vets expire, we’ll be able to sign more good players to play with one of the transcendent players in the game. And we may actually be the rare exception where the house doesn’t turn back into a paperclip.

    By the way, I acknowledge there is no guarantee that KP will become a transcendent player. But just as I’d put the odds on Rose positively contributing at 5-1 against, I’d put the odds of KP positively contributing at 5-1 for.

  32. Melo wanted to come to the Knicks… BADLY.
    Rose was saying that if Chicago had to trade him, his 1st choice would be the Knicks.
    Noah is a Knick fan for all his life.
    Jennings always wanted to be a Knick.
    and KP is… KP !

    Do i need more to cheer endlessly for this health-enigma squad ????
    Hell no ! Not me !

    Till season-ending-injury do us part !

  33. @12 – It was a serious question. I asked the question and didn’t share my opinion. I only think that it’s fair I do that now. The Sixers are an enigma. They tanked for three years and grabbed lots of top picks. Yet they drafted misaligned pieces and had them play on lousy teams. I look at Okafor and wonder how last year impacted his development. I can say the same, even more, about Noel. After this upcoming year, Noel is a restricted free agent. So their investment in him may already have been for naught. And how has he developed? What the Sixers don’t have is veteran leadership. It’s possible that the majority of their team is not yet allowed to legally consume alcohol.

    Looking at things in the longer term, I think the Knicks are in a better place. KP is already showing signs of leadership. He’s developing into an all-star before our eyes. I credit having him play with Robin Lopez for that. We have Hernangomez, Lance Thomas, Kuzminskas and other young players that are surrounded by seasoned vets that include a former MVP (Rose), an NBA scoring champ (Melo) and a defensive stalwart (Noah).

    I’m curious to see how that Sixer team looks in two years. They’ve won 47 games combined the past three years. In those past 3 years they were 29th, 30th and 28th in attendance. Dismal is an understatement. Those are numbers that make owners start to think that it’s time to stop bleeding money.

  34. @rama

    My point is not so much that the Knicks are going ot be totally broke in the near future. It was that the moves knickterp called “marginal” can actually have substantial benefits and don’t at all deserve the cynicism with which he seems to regard them. knickterp’s argument was basically that the Knicks should say “fuck it” and not bother with the marginal moves because those don’t help build title contenders.

    IMO, those moves almost always constitute a large part of a building title contenders…

    Lakers traded a top 10 center on a 50+ win team for the 10th overall pick. Kobe Bryant.

    Spurs started a poor passing PG who couldn’t shoot who they’d picked late in the first round while they were in title contention. They later refuse to trade him for prime Jason Kidd. Tony Parker.

    Spurs traded a good starting combo guard for the 15th pick. Kawhi Leonard.

    Celtics took on the last 1.5 years of Olowokandi’s shitty contract and got a future Minnesota 1st, which later was the key to getting KG.

    Cavs agreed to take on Baron Davis’s contract for a pick. Kyrie Irving.

    These moves don’t always pay off, but on average, they pay off royally, and you have to get lucky to win a title anyway. Key is giving yourself opportunities to get lucky.

  35. Why do the nabobs of negativity on here always skew the upside while exaggerating the downside?
    I’ve seen either/or posts on here where the maximum wins were 40 and the best possible outcome was a second round exit. Is that as positive as it’s possible for some of you to ever be unless we sacrifice the next 5 to 10 years? If so, you should be rooting for the Nyets.

  36. Latke, that story about acquiring Harden is nice, but it’s just a story and a story that leaves out a number of details.

    For one, trading Lowry for a first rounder is not a good trade on Hou part.

    Two, Kevin Martin, Mike Lamb, another first rounder and a second rounder were included in that trade. They probably could have done the trade w/o that pick.

    Three, Cole Aldrich was the most important part of that trade.

  37. @39
    The Sixers are definitely doin’ it right if you’re DEEP into Masochism !
    Trading their rookie of the year MCW for a future first round pick and picking NeverEverSeenEmbiid while trying this offseason to trade Noel or Okafor just shows you that this strategy may last……FOREVER ?

  38. @33 – i wasn’t so much commenting on the individual pieces of the roster…. lee is a fine player, i probably like melo more than most and porzingis was a godsend…. roster failure was more a judgment on the collection within the context of the next 1-4 seasons….

    this is now 3 offseasons of major roster turnover… and while i’m short of dooming this knicks team this season(everything hinges on what’s left of noah in that regard which isn’t a great bet in my estimates but there’s a >0 chance that a 2015 version is good enough in enough minutes)…. investing so much in an old core that projects to be about .500 in year 1 is a bit lackluster to say the least….

    you have to remember… we have been going into every season TRYING to win… every transaction aside from the jr/shump trade was made with the thought of competing now… within that context the results and future prospects don’t look good at all…

    just compare us to portland…. and i’m not saying that they had a stupendous offseason but in the last year they lost batum and LMA and still managed to get in the playoffs and they should expect to be reasonably good for foreseeable future…. can we say that we are in the same boat even though we had similar resources in those exact same years?

  39. Latke, I agree with your overall sentiment that moves on the margins of the roster are important, but the examples you cited are exceptional moves made by really well run teams. To say that these moves on average pay off royally is simply not true.

    What’s funny is the Knicks have actually been pretty decent at end of the roster moves. They just never end up keeping the players (see: Lin, Galloway, Chris Copeland, etc.). Hopefully they can get some production out of one their end of bench guys this year. I’m rooting for Randle.

  40. You can sort of throw out Joakim Noah’s 2015-2016 season as an outlier, because he was just that godawful. But what about his 2014-2015 season? He wasn’t very good then either:

    .482 TS%
    .130 WS48
    .515 FG% from 0-3 feet

    In his prime Noah regularly had a FG% from 0-3 feet around .585, and a TS% up around .550. His problems finishing near the rim go back two seasons now, and I don’t believe you can write that off due to injury.

    He looks like a declining player to me. I think we’re much more likely to get 2014-2015 Noah than prime Noah, and we would have been better off with RoLo than with 2014-2015 Noah.

  41. @44

    Was that the year he was dealing with knee issues and battling plantar fasciitis?

  42. SJK: Latke, I agree with your overall sentiment that moves on the margins of the roster are important, but the examples you cited are exceptional moves made by really well run teams. To say that these moves on average pay off royally is simply not true.

    I didn’t mean that they always pay off the way my examples paid off. I meant more even if it’s just 1 in 20 trades like that that end up hitting, the hits so far outweigh the costs that it’s still an awesome (royal!) value because as everyone here does seem to agree on, title contenders are built upon superstars.

  43. Danny Ainge–among others–is waiting by the phone for that next Harden trade. And the ironic thing is Phil–for all his ineptitude (according to many on this site)–could trump him easily. Rose + KP gets us Westbrook today. Ainge couldn’t match that.

    Which leads to this question: many here think Phil only cares about instant pseudo-competitiveness, a destined-for-failure win-now philosophy. So why doesn’t he call Presti and make that trade if that’s his only ambition? Westbrook-Lee-Melo-Noah-Lance Thomas? wins 45-50 in the East this year. And that’s all Phil wants, right?

  44. Some on here actually feel that the Sixers are doing it right!

    And the bigger organizational problem with that is a generation of lost fans. Those attendance numbers are damning. If you’re a 10-year old in Philadelphia, are you watching that team? Are you developing a passion for them? I have relatives there that are sports fans and they couldn’t name a player on the team. My own sons won’t watch Knick games because they were born too late to see the Ewing years. That kind of dreadfulness destroys a team’s future more than mediocrity.

    Once upon a time I loved hockey. I was an avid Islander fan and cheered them on to 4 Stanley cups. Then came decades of futility and I lost interest in the sport. Today I could not name you a player on that team. They completely lost me.

  45. A tidbit from Hoopshype:

    Memphis Grizzlies General Manager Chris Wallace today announced that the Grizzlies waived guard Tony Wroten.

    Makes me wonder what’s going on with him. This is the guy that thought he would be the starting PG for the Knicks. Lesson learned: Don’t claim players that were cut by the Sixers.

  46. latke, moves at the margin are important but not really that important. 9 NBA franchises have won the NBA title in the last 30-something years. It’s not because they made moves at the margins. It’s because of Tim Duncan, Shaq, Lebron, and so on. Moves at the margins can move you up a few games in the standings here and there, but rarely if ever do they make a huge difference.

    If the Lakers gave up a top 10 center, they should’ve gotten more than a draft pick.

    Kyrie Irving? The Cavs nearly won it all with Dellavadova and Mo Williams.

    The KG trade was much more complex than a single 1st rounder, I assume the Olowakandi trade was too.

    Things aren’t all that straight forward.

  47. Latke, I agree with your overall sentiment that moves on the margins of the roster are important, but the examples you cited are exceptional moves made by really well run teams.

    This is exactly why both Randle and Baker should have been added to the roster over Sasha. They have a much better chance of getting better than he. But, on the other hand, if Sasha isn’t needed to play the same role he did last season, then it’s a decent addition- especially if Hornacek runs some triple post in his half-court sets. Personally, I’d rather have Baker & Randle. You should never pass up a chance to develop young talent because you want a player who knows the system. That’s what the coaches are for.

  48. his is exactly why both Randle and Baker should have been added to the roster over Sasha.

    According to Mark Berman Baker will be invited to training camp and odds are he’ll be given a partially guaranteed contract as incentive to play in the D-League. Berman, who seems to have the inside dope on the Knicks these days, also indicated that Randle has caught the eyes of the team. He added that they are looking for a backup center and hinted that they’re also looking at Drew Gooden.

  49. Danny Ainge–among others–is waiting by the phone for that next Harden trade. And the ironic thing is Phil–for all his ineptitude (according to many on this site)–could trump him easily. Rose + KP gets us Westbrook today. Ainge couldn’t match that.

    Ainge also has a better, significantly younger team, and the chips they got from the Brooklyn trade haven’t even played a role yet. Which has higher odds: the Knicks sign a star FA or Ainge trades for a star?

    Which leads to this question: many here think Phil only cares about instant pseudo-competitiveness, a destined-for-failure win-now philosophy. So why doesn’t he call Presti and make that trade if that’s his only ambition? Westbrook-Lee-Melo-Noah-Lance Thomas? wins 45-50 in the East this year. And that’s all Phil wants, right?

    I would respect Phil more if he did this. You win titles by putting together pieces that can peak together. If we trade KP now for Westbrook, at least Jackson is committing to a vision. Hell, throw the 2017 pick in too and maybe we bring back another win now piece. Let’s at least give ourselves a puncher’s chance of a deep playoff run, and then in 2018 or 2019, we can actually bottom out for a few years.

  50. [P.Jackson]-Are we moving fast enough to accomplish goals you have for yourself and your career?
    [Melo]-No…
    [PJ]-Would you like me to give KP+DRose and get you RWestbrook ?
    [Melo]-!!!! i think you gotta stop reading Knickerblogger.net !!!!
    [PJ]-i’ll try

  51. If Phil had shut Melo down after his injury, we’d have finished last and drafted KAT. If Phil had negotiated a partial NTC to LA, we could have flipped Melo for Lakers pick and selected KP at Gaines’ direction. We’d have KAT and KP. We’d be in a better position for the future than the Twolves or 76ers.

    Jeez this is the most what if post I’ve ever seen.

  52. Is Marshall Plumlee considered part of our roster of 15 since we gave him a guaranteed contract? Or can we park him in the d league and have another open roster spot?

    Same goes for Baker, though I wouldn’t mind seeing him on the team proper

  53. Some players I would like to see to fill out the back 2 or 3 roster spots:
    Baker
    Randle
    David Lee
    Montiejunas (is he gettable given his injury history?)
    T Zeller
    Stephenson
    Stoudemire if he and Melo are cool again

    Any others I’m missing, diamonds in the rough from the D League or Europe or the FA scrap heap?

  54. Silky,
    I like your list of names but my concern is having a defensive presence on the 2nd team. Zeller is a great fit, but Amare and DLee, although not good defensively, are on my list too. Amare can give you 10 minutes of great ball and DLee has a knack for grabbing rebounds and scoring. It would be great to have either of them.

  55. @49 — why do I get this feeling that we will soon be reading that Wroten is being suspended for violating the league’s substance abuse policy? Something is definitely going on with him.

  56. Brandon Bass and a guy named Seraphin are out there too, I believe. Saw a tweet today that we’re considering Drew Gooden.

  57. Now some would say no big deal. Really? If Phil had shut Melo down after his injury, we’d have finished last and drafted KAT. If Phil had negotiated a partial NTC to LA, we could have flipped Melo for Lakers pick and selected KP at Gaines’ direction. We’d have KAT and KP. We’d be in a better position for the future than the Twolves or 76ers.

    Lol huge what if. As much fun as it is to discuss hypothetical situations, some poster here have all but concluded that a Melo to the Lakers would have 100% happened if Phil put it to them.

    I have warmed to the Noah signing. Adds a bit of grit we haven’t had in the paint for a number of years. Would definitely have preferred him on a 2-3 year deal though. It has been pleasing to read a lot of the comments from the FA’s this off-season about wanting to come to New York. I guess in that respect you have to credit Phil on achieving his culture change goal to some extent.

  58. Is Marshall Plumlee considered part of our roster of 15 since we gave him a guaranteed contract? Or can we park him in the d league and have another open roster spot?

    He’s part of the roster of 15.

  59. As much as I dislike Jackson’s overarching vision, I do have to admit that I love all the guys he signed personality wise–we’ve got a real cast of characters going in, and when they’re winning, they’re probably gonna be real fun to watch. I just don’t think it’s sustainable and that’s what we should be aiming for…

  60. The Jason Kidd comparison for Noah is good. The Knicks need healthy bodies, but Kidd showed how far Basketball IQ can take a team. He was one of those players you knew was good but until he played for your team, even at an advanced age with creaky legs, he made everyone around him better. I believe Noah, one of my top 10 favorite players in the NBA over the past decade, will fall somewhere between Kidd and Charles Oakley in leaving a formidable imprint on developing a competitive, winning culture for this Franchise.

  61. huge what if. As much fun as it is to discuss hypothetical situations, some poster here have all but concluded that a Melo to the Lakers would have 100% happened if Phil put it to them.

    Jeez this is the most what if post I’ve ever seen.

    One thing for certain is that Phil should have shut Melo down after the injury instead of worrying about his brand. And yes, if Phil had acted responsibly, we’d have KAT (You might want to check what happened to rooks who posted >.150 WS/48 on >2000 minutes) and Melo might be in better shape. What’s the purpose of having Phil if he’s gonna kowtow to a 30yo “star” who’s not in the same category of MJ/Pippen/Shaq/Kobe/Pau? It’s amusing that some of the orthopaedists here were telling us that it was a minor injury and Melo would be himself at the start of last season. Now those same people are posting that it takes a year to recover and Melo will be fine this season.

    Are people also arguing that Melo would have walked away from a 130m contract if it included a partial NTC which allowed team to trade him to Lakers or Clippers? Not a chance since we know Melo is about money and location. He’s got a home in LA; NYC and LA are choice spots for his wife’s career. It’s true we don’t know if Lakers would have traded the pick for Melo but the best evidence for that is people like Dolan and er, those that have starzzz in their eyes. Lakers might be the only team more star crazy than the Knicks.

  62. @64 – Good. Motiejunas has back issues. I’ve had all kinds of injuries: sprains, breaks, bruises, tears…you name it. Nothing is worse than a balky back. Nothing. Think David Wright. Think Don Mattingly. Backs are really bad when they get bad and surgery basically only stops the pain for mundane activity. We need someone more durable.

    @66 – No way could Phil have traded Melo to LA. Yeah, I know that lots of folks here think that would be a good idea, but the optics to the other 99.9% of the fan base, led by every know-it-all radio voice, would be bad. They would be killing him for giving his girlfriend a “transcendant super-star” on a silver platter. Minor trades are one thing, a trade of that scope is just never can happen.

  63. No way could Phil have traded Melo to LA. Yeah, I know that lots of folks here think that would be a good idea, but the optics to the other 99.9% of the fan base, led by every know-it-all radio voice, would be bad. They would be killing him for giving his girlfriend a “transcendant super-star” on a silver platter. Minor trades are one thing, a trade of that scope is just never can happen.

    You may very well be right but then what was the purpose of hiring Phil in the first place? He was supposed to be maybe the only guy in the world who could make that trade and sell it to the fans/media. And a 30yo ““transcendant super-star” for a #2 or #3 pick is not a stretch.

  64. One thing for certain is that Phil should have shut Melo down after the injury instead of worrying about his brand.

    100% agree on that. No point risking a key cog on a wasted season, especially when he has 4 years left on a deal. Would that have necessarily got us the no.1 pick? Probably gets us a better chance for sure, but considering we were the only team to go backwards, shows how much the lottery is….well….a lottery. Minnesota was tanking pretty hard too, so probably need to take that into account. As it stood, we had a reasonable shot at a top 3 pick, and maybe could have had the best odds if it hadn’t been for some late season TH2 heroics.

    It’s true we don’t know if Lakers would have traded the pick for Melo but the best evidence for that is people like Dolan and er, those that have starzzz in their eyes. Lakers might be the only team more star crazy than the Knicks.

    Granted LA are the Western Conference Knicks when it comes to making “splashy” moves, I just don’t see the Lakers making that move. Even with Kobe the Lakers were lottery bound. The only reason I see a team trading that many firsts is if they are a middle of the pack playoff team looking to push into the upper echelon of a conference. Plus even if we were to get that pick, the odds of it being top 5 are longer because you would have to think Melo nets any team a few extra wins.

  65. If anyone thinks they have the ultimate answer to what’s happening with the Knicks (or in any aspect of life) they might want to take a step back and consider things more carefully.

    Really, no one knows what’s going to happen with the Knicks in 2016-17 or in any of the years immediately after. It’s fair to see things as rosy. It’s fair to see things as gloomy. The truth is, there’s probably a whole lot of grey area about what’s going to unfold. Optimism is always a good thing, provided it’s balanced with a healthy respect for all logical arguments. Pessimism can be a dangerous thing when it becomes chronic cynicism. Being optimistic, but open minded, cautious, and realistic is probably the way to go.

    This is a really odd strawman for a Knickerblogger staff writer to use.

    No one — absolutely no one — on this website purports to “know” what will happen in 2016-17 because, jeez louise: it hasn’t freaking happened yet. Obviously. I mean, holy shit. How obvious is this obvious sentence?

    Nate Silver does not purport to know the actual outcome of the 2016 presidential election, nor does he have some complete set of information that allows him with total confidence to be some sort of gnostic Nostradumbass (miss you too, former KB poster “flossy”). Yet he has access to variables that have been strong predictors in the past, just as we do: a player’s abysmal shooting efficiency, low assist rate, multiple knee surgeries. It looks awful because he has been awful. Not an opinion. Fact.

    It is not fair to see things as rosy. That’s the whole point. It’s unreasonable to look at multiple knee injuries, 3500 minutes of near-league-worst play and the possibility of a multiyear extension and cry “bounce-back for the former MVP.” Or are you suggesting we practice the principles of The Secret™ so we live better lives?

  66. 100% agree on that. No point risking a key cog on a wasted season, especially when he has 4 years left on a deal. Would that have necessarily got us the no.1 pick? Probably gets us a better chance for sure, but considering we were the only team to go backwards, shows how much the lottery is….well….a lottery.

    The Twolves finished last, they drafted 1st. If we had finished last (and Melo sitting would have made that almost a certainty), we would have drafted 1st. That’s how the ping pong balls landed that summer. Of course, we wouldn’t have known that at the time, but the gist is that Phil should have shut Melo down for other reasons, and, as it turned out, we would have netted the #1 pick.

    Plus even if we were to get that pick, the odds of it being top 5 are longer because you would have to think Melo nets any team a few extra wins.

    I was talking about trading Melo at the end of last season for the Lakers pick that summer (D’Angelo Russell pick). So our #1 pick would have been KAT and the Laker pick would have been used to draft KP. From what I’ve read, Gaines would have pushed for KP over Okafor or Russell. What you wrote would be true if we were talking about trading Melo for Laker #2 pick (Ingram) this summer.

  67. Pessimism can be a dangerous thing when it becomes chronic cynicism.

    This team has sucked real bad for 15 years. If ever a sports franchise has earned “chronic cynicism” it is the New York Knicks.

  68. Zanzibar, your post from the last thread is laughable. If you have the worst record, you have a 25% chance of picking first. If you come in second, you have a 20% chance. You can’t simply assume that the lottery balls would have fallen the same way if the Knicks finished last…the whole deck gets reshuffled because the exact moment that the ball is selected depends on countless preceding events. your argument is as bad as arguing that finishing second increased the probability that the Knicks didn’t wind up picking at #2 or #3, where Phil would have been under enormous pressure to pick Russell or Okafor? (He might have taken Porzingis at #2 anyway, which is what his most trusted advisor recommended…can you imagine the outcry from many KBers if that happened? It’s far from a certainty that KP doesn’t surpass KAT this year as the best player from that draft. Its also possible that KP hits a wall or gets hurt and 20 guys from that draft have better careers than he has.

    BTW, Jowles still insists that WCS was the smarter pick at #4. I wonder… if he were GM would he call and ask Sacto if they do that trade straight up? Statistically, WCS had a significantly better rookie season, right?

  69. When you flip a coin and it lands on heads, do you float around the room saying, “The only smart choice was heads, guys!”

  70. When you flip a coin and it lands on heads, do you float around the room saying, “The only smart choice was heads, guys!”

    Tails never fails, dumbass

  71. This team has sucked real bad for 15 years. If ever a sports franchise has earned “chronic cynicism” it is the New York Knicks.

    Not true. They made the playoffs 3 straight years. But thanks for demonstrating the wisdom of MP’s words, and for revealing that your’s are tainted by some sort of sports fan PTSD.

  72. One playoff series win in 15 seasons. Winning percentage that projects to 33 wins per season over fifteen years. That is a fucking dismal record. That is 15 years of a giant nothingburger.

  73. No I am 100% correct about the lottery. If we had finished last instead of Twolves, we would have picked 1st in the draft. That’s fact or factorial if you prefer. It’s not a subject for dispute. The computer doesn’t know the Knicks from the Twolves. There’s a generic tag like “Team A” which has X% chance, Team B which has Y% chance, and so on. Team A is the one with the worst record, Team B’s got the second worst record, and so on. As it happened that summer, the computer selected the team with the worst record to draft 1st. Now that’s just a fact. If the Knicks had had the worst record, they would have drafted first that summer.

    It’s far from a certainty that KP doesn’t surpass KAT this year as the best player from that draft. Its also possible that KP hits a wall or gets hurt and 20 guys from that draft have better careers than he has

    Every morning while my toasted bagel is cooling I have to wait behind people like you who are buying lottery tickets and reading off birthdays/wedding days/#’s God told them and so on. I want to tell them to spend their money on public financing of federal elections and they’ll get a much better return. In your case, I suggest you execute a query on Bref of all 20yo rooks who posted a >.150 WS/48 and >2000MP. How many ended up franchise players? But hey, it would have been even better to have both KAT and KP. If Phil had acted as we all had hoped he would when he was hired, we would have definitely have had KAT and maybe have had KP as well if he listened to Gaines. Instead, he’s gone Dray Green on the future, slapping it in the face and kicking it in the nether region.

  74. Zanzi,
    Unless you can prove to me that the settings in the “computer” were set before mid-April, your argument is ridiculous. Every random generating device has an on and off button, and the outputs change every microsecond. Meaning that whatever happened subsequent to the Knicks finishing second in the universe of that mechanism would have to have identical to the chain of events had they finished first, which is statistically almost impossible.

  75. Jowles, funny how you call it a coin flip when you spent countless KB words patting yourself on the back for spotting Leonard.

  76. Frequently heard on Knickerblogger.com:

    Hey that guy’s pretty good so let’s trade him before he wins us some games.

    We’re winning way too much to become a winning team.

    That guy with 13 championship rings knows nothing.

    Lose one for the Gipper!

  77. Frequently also heard on Knickerblogger.com:

    Hey, that guy’s pretty good, but why does he have a megamax contract and a no-trade clause?

    We’re losing way too much to become a +.500 team.

    That guy with the 13 championship rings just traded an above-average NBA center on a cap-friendly deal for a player who relied on athletic gifts when he was good but is now three surgeries and five years from his best season.

    Lose one more game for a better chance at the #1 pick! (Thanks, Tim Hardaway!)

  78. I can’t remember where I read it, but I’m 90% sure that I read that the draft selection process happens in such a way that in 2015 the team with the worst record–whatever that record or team may have been–would have received the first pick. So it is the case that we would have gotten Towns. Thanks, THJr.

  79. And the bigger organizational problem with that is a generation of lost fans. Those attendance numbers are damning. If you’re a 10-year old in Philadelphia, are you watching that team?

    Since Dolan took over the Knicks, the Sixers have won 15 more regular season games than the Knicks, and a whopping 24 more playoff games (33-9).

    The worst thing that has happened to the franchise during that time is that the fans haven’t damned MSG with poor attendance. The value of the team goes up regardless of the product it sells. If fans withheld their time and money, Dolan may be forced to reconsider the way he runs things. But, instead, people try to find silver-linings as they hope in vain for everything to break right instead of left, staying loyal to an owner that has done nothing to deserve the fans that he has.

    In the end, Philadelphia fans will not remember the bad times. Only the good ones to come.

  80. In essence, ping pong balls are used shortly before the broadcast to determine draft order. That means that any microvariation in the universe of the lottery balls from mid-april until that time would result in a total reshuffling of the deck. To argue otherwise is totally illogical.

    So I looked up the NBA draft lottery proceeds and they basically use 1k combinations of ping pong balls to determine who gets first pick. Since worst team has a 25% chance of winning the pick they get 250 combos. Say the worst team got assigned 1-250 and the number that came up was 100. That 100 drop would have been the case even if it were the Knicks in the #1 position.

    There is no reason to assume “micro variations in the universe” would have any causal effect on the fact that the worst team was assigned values 1-250 and the value 100 is what obtained on NBA draft night. There’s no obvious causal connection whatsoever to determine here. My eating or not eating breakfast doesn’t result in massive branches in the multiverse, just as the Knicks or T Wolves being assigned balls 1-250 is irrelevant to the fact that 100 is the combination that dropped on draft night in 2015.

  81. There is no reason to assume “micro variations in the universe” would have any causal effect on the fact that the worst team was assigned values 1-250 and the value 100 is what obtained on NBA draft night. There’s no obvious causal connection whatsoever to determine here.

    Heard of the ‘butterfly effect’?

    When you flip a coin and it lands on heads, do you float around the room saying, “The only smart choice was heads, guys!”

    Here you are assuming the you have a ‘fair coin’. What happens if the coin is not? Not only you have to measure that the coin flips heads and tails equally, but that the outcome of a coin flip is uncorrelated with the previous outcomes.

    You base your basketball assumptions on certain statistic distribution, but consider there could be no other correlations (i.e. other person could have better info than you). If a coin goes Heads – Tails – Heads – Tails – Head -… (the outcome is anticorrelated with the previous coin flip) it would be possible to predict exactly the outcome, even if there is a 50% chance of getting any value (obviously, such coin does not exist).

  82. Nate Silver does not purport to know the actual outcome of the 2016 presidential election, nor does he have some complete set of information that allows him with total confidence to be some sort of gnostic Nostradumbass (miss you too, former KB poster “flossy”).

    wow still settling old scores out there huh

  83. Per Realgm:

    The Chicago Bulls have taken Jimmy Butler off the trade market for now, according to league sources.

    Seems like the Bulls really feel they have a win now team!

  84. Z-Man, the link you provided proves what I’ve been saying. Here is the relevant quote:

    The Philadelphia 76ers finished the season with the NBA’s worst record (10-72), so they will be assigned the first 250 combinations.

    Now substitute TWolves for 76ers in the above quote for the lottery in question. BUT if the Knicks had had had the worst record that year, they – not the Twolves – would have been assigned the first 250 combinations. The ping pong balls are almost irrelevant here; it is the combinations that really matter. The ping pong balls matched one of the 250 Twolves combinations. But the Knicks would have had those exact same combinations if they had finished last instead of the Twolves.

  85. The butterfly effect has an outsize reputation in popular culture. In reality, it applies to nonlinear nondeterministic systems, and it is either controversial or under theorized to assume that the universe as a whole is either nonlinear or nondeterministic. The only macro-scale phenomenon the butterfly effect plays a causal role in is in weather systems. Other than that, it’s only been theorized on the quantum level, and causal interactions between QM and macro-scale phenomena are murky at best.

    As a matter of counterfactual probability, there is no reason to assume that the butterfly effect plays a causal role in macro-scale events that aren’t weather systems, ergo, ping pong balls stay the same.

    Instead of getting into the heavy philosophy, can’t we just leave it at the fact that Jackson *didn’t* shut down Melo early enough and *didn’t* encourage tanking near the end of the season, and so cost us either Towns or a better shot at Towns? Like, that should be easy enough to admit–we don’t need constant apologia for all of Phil Jackson’s moves.

  86. The butterfly effect has an outsize reputation in popular culture. In reality, it applies to nonlinear nondeterministic systems, and it is either controversial or under theorized to assume that the universe as a whole is either nonlinear or nondeterministic. The only macro-scale phenomenon the butterfly effect plays a causal role in is in weather systems. Other than that, it’s only been theorized on the quantum level, and causal interactions between QM and macro-scale phenomena are murky at best.

    What are you talking about? A double pendulum is already chaotic and it is a classical system (and discrete, you dont have to go to continuum systems like fluids).

    PS: There are nonlinear equations everywhere! Only in certain regimes the can be approximated by linear equations.

  87. True, forgot about pendulums. But that doesn’t take away from my point, I’m pretty sure. And the existence of other significant macro scale chaotic systems doesn’t affect my point either. In order for something to be subject to the Butterfly effect and chaos theory more generally a system must be:

    sensitive to initial conditions
    topologically mixing
    have dense periodic orbits

    None of these besides maybe the first apply to the NBA draft lottery. To pretend they do so is bad science and bad philosophy.

    Again, we need not engage in physics talk (which isn’t even correct) when we could just say that Phil and Fisher’s refusal to do certain things resulted in us not getting Towns and or reducing our chances of Towns for literally zero benefit. That’s indisputable and a mark against them.

  88. “Again, we need not engage in physics talk (which isn’t even correct) when we could just say that Phil and Fisher’s refusal to do certain things resulted in us not getting Towns and or reducing our chances of Towns for literally zero benefit. That’s indisputable and a mark against them.”

    What you are saying is tainted by complete BS. Objectively, the following rephrasing would make it logically irrefutable:

    Again, we need not engage in physics talk (although it is 100% accurate) when we could just say that Phil and Fisher’s refusal to do certain things resulted in us reducing our chances of drafting Towns from 25% to 20% for literally zero benefit. That’s indisputable and a mark against them. And 5% is important because that means that there were 50 more combinations out of the 1,000 (or 1,001) possibilities that would have yielded them the #1 pick.

    By the way, who did you go on the record wanting us to pick at #4?

  89. I don’t want to think about Towns on the Knicks. I just don’t. I love Porzingis, a little irrationally at this point, but there is no question in my mind who the better bet is long term.

    And it’s not like people at KB weren’t screaming their heads off that entire spring about how we should have been tanking hard. If you look at the thread for the Hardaway games and the day after you will see many many irate posts about it. It was so so dumb.

  90. Owen, I totally agree. What I disagree with is the assumption that had we finished last, we would have definitely gotten the #1 pick.

    As to Porzingis, I think there is a reasonable chance that he has a better career than Towns. Everyone knew that Towns was more NBA-ready than KP going into last year, so the question now becomes about the steepness of their developmental curves. I would not trade KP for Towns straight up right now, but acknowledge that that is an indefensibly irrational position. That’s what love does!

  91. Can’t teach people science to people who don’t want to learn about it I guess… Moreover there are very few things that are “logically irrefutable” and I don’t think you could translate that sentence into first order symbolic logic to prove it as such. Moreover there are alternate logical systems where contradictory outcomes are perfectly consistent. Don’t talk about things you don’t know about.

    I was on the record for WCS or Porzingis at the 4th pick, with a moderate preference for WCS because he was the safer bet.

  92. Can’t teach people science to people who don’t want to learn about it I guess… Moreover there are very few things that are “logically irrefutable” and I don’t think you could translate that sentence into first order symbolic logic to prove it as such. Moreover there are alternate logical systems where contradictory outcomes are perfectly consistent. Don’t talk about things you don’t know about.

    Not sure what you understand by ‘science’. I understand that it is the knowledge of the world through the scientific method, which consists in observing the world, making hypothesis and test those hypothesis (further and further).

    If you want to know the outcome of the lottery, but you initial data is the world as it was weeks ago (when THJr decided to win a meaningless game), you will need to evolve this initial data in a very precise way to determine the outcome. The predictive power to do that is beyond our capabilities.

    However, let us play some science-fiction: Let us say you are a worker that loads the ping pong balls into the machine. The Knicks have finished (last / 4th last) and that makes you (relaxed / nervous), you sleep (well / bad) because of this, and you arrive (early / late) to work and you load the balls (slow / fast) which in turn changes the distribution of the balls when the lottery starts. Voilá! you just have changed the outcome of the lottery! I havent needed quantum mechanics, pendulums or storms, but it seems a very real possibility.

    In any case, from the point of view of the information that was known the moment THJr had his breakout game, the odds changed from 25% to 20%, and unless there was some way for our GM to know the outcome of the lottery, you have to judge him on that. If the Knicks had been last but the 76ers had won the lottery then was it a bad decision to lose so much?

  93. I’m not really following this, they argument stretching over 16 hours is that if the Knicks were assigned the numbers for the number 1 pick, it is possible that a different combination of numbers would have come out. Is it not also possible that matters would have unfolded identically? What is it about a different team being #1 that would lead events to unfold differently?

  94. Every morning while my toasted bagel is cooling I have to wait behind people like you who are buying lottery tickets and reading off birthdays/wedding days/#’s God told them and so on.

    The irony of being condescended to by someone who doesn’t understand the argument.

    Silky (Alecto?), at least you’re trying to rebut from an informed point of view, but whether disregarding fairly well-established principles of chaos theory, counter-examples like pendulums, or just basic realism about how probability is affected by a variety of inputs that each can change the outcome (the ping-pong-ball-loader who is upset/happy about the Knicks having the best shot at the #1 pick), you’re still wrong. No one can say that had the Knicks had the worst record, they instead of the T-Wolves would have had the first pick. NO ONE KNOWS.

    The argument that we should tanked harder to give ourselves a better shot? Sure. No one is disagreeing with you. Fortunately, between KAT and KP, I’d say they are 1 and 1A. I think they are both going to be phenomenal; KAT was better out of the gate, but KP may actually have more upside. I am glad Phil picked KP instead of WCS, even though I still love WCS, too.

  95. What I disagree with is the assumption that had we finished last, we would have definitely gotten the #1 pick.

    It’s not an assumption, it’s FACT. We know the lottery seeding process and we know how that particular lottery turned out. There is no guesswork at all here. If we had finished last, the computer would have generated the same 250 combinations it did for the Twolves. Per your very link, the computer started with the team which finished last and generated 250 combinations (4#s per combination). It then proceeded to generate the appropriate # of combinations for the other teams in the lottery. After that process was complete, 4 ping pong balls were selected to determine the #1 seed – it so happened in this lottery to match one of the 250 combinations generated by the computer for the team which finished last.

    You must be viewing the odds before the lottery balls are selected. I’ve never argued that finishing last means we automatically get the #1 pick; indeed, the odds are against that. I’ve said that we know how this particular lottery turned out and therefore know we would have gotten the #1 pick if we had finished last.

    haterz gonna hate.

    Yes I’m gonna hate on Phil for putting Melo’s brand ahead of Melo’s health and the future of the team. If he hadn’t placed the personal interest of a 30yo faux franchise player ahead of that of the team, we would now have a 20yo with a high probability (based on history) of being a real franchise player for the next 10-15 years. And I’m also gonna hate on Phil for not negotiating a partial NTC. If he had done so, there’s a very good chance we could have had both KAT and KP. He’s gonna have to catch lightning in a bottle to have all this work out better than that alternative universe.

  96. If we can’t agree that Derrick Rose is a terrible basketball player, how the fuck we gonna agree about this

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