Statistical Analysis. Humor. Knicks.

Saturday, September 21, 2019

SNY: Knicks Q&A: Julius Randle looks ahead to 2019 season

Ian Begley continues his fine work at SNY with a great Q&A with Julius Randle. Some choice quotes…

Speaking on Mitchell Robinson:

Bobby Portis said in an interview with the New York Post that he expects to come off the bench behind Robinson this season. So Randle should play alongside Robinson regularly this season. He’s looking forward to it. “I’m excited man, that kid is going to be amazing,” Randle said. During his free agency meeting with the Knicks, Randle recalls telling Fizdale, “‘When we played I was like, ‘who is this kid?’ Cause every time I went to the basket he was coming out of nowhere. I’m like, ‘Yo, what’s going on?'” Randle said with a grin. “I had no clue who he was. He has so much potential now he’s only scratching the surface and I’m excited to get, on the court with him.”

On his three-point shooting:

“From high school on I’ve always been able to do that. It was just all about opportunity. Sometimes you have to sacrifice and I got to new Orleans and had a great opportunity to do that. I’m just trying to build on that.

So obviously this offseason I’ve been doing a lot of that, trying to build on that and become an even better 3-point shooter. I know what my bread and butter is at the same time though, I’m not going to leave that.”

There’s lots more great quotes. Well worth the read.

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342 comments on “SNY: Knicks Q&A: Julius Randle looks ahead to 2019 season

  1. 2FOR18, understands math

    We’re going to like having Julius. One of the few moves the braintrust has made in the last 20 years that I’m in favor of.

  2. KnickfaninNJ

    Reposted to new thread

    I’m actually expecting the US not to win the FIBA tournament. They have as much talent as other teams, but not head and shoulders above all of them, and they haven’t spent much time together as a team. They can win against anyone, but they have to do it too many times in a row.

  3. Z-man

    Randle will be an interesting alpha-dog. Say what you want about our power forward-heavy FA haul, but Randle, Morris, Portis, Gibson and Mitch makes for a pretty bad-ass front line.

  4. Early Bird

    The difference between USA and the other teams is the balance of the roster. I still think they’re favorites to win, but not by much.

    The issue is that Jokic and Giannis can win games single handedly. Gobert is another scary force on defense for France.

    Spain is also balanced but I’m not sure they have USA’s talent.

    What I will say is that USA clearly does not have the best player. I wonder how often that has happened.

  5. Brian Cronin Post author

    The US just has a decently good team. The US team would be, like, a #3-4 seed in the East. Is that enough to win the World Cup?

  6. KnickfaninNJ

    I have really mixed feelings about whether a three to four seed in the East would win FIBA. The Croatians and Chinese both didn’t do well in Summer league and they were playing NBA rookies and second year players, but they aren’t the best of the international teams either. I just think team play and coherence as a team plays a big role and I don’t know if the US has this

  7. Totes McGoats as Totes McGoats

    RE: Frank

    We need him. I know..I know..he’s been awful, he’s not our PG, etc. I agree..but there’s a flipside to it- no matter how much we (myself included) care to admit it. We need him at the point of attack on defense. It is increasingly becoming truly a guard’s league. He is the only perimeter player with the skill to head the defense at the point of attack. I think our best backcourt option is DSJ and Ntilikina, so at the very least, he has to fix his broken jumper. That kinda blocks Barrett and Knox a little, but our best tone-setting starting 5 is Mitch/Randle/Morris/Ntilikina/ DSJ. And that leaves a battle royal for perimeter minutes between Barrett, Knox, Trier, Payton, Ellington, and Dotson. I think Trier has earned minutes, so hopefully that competition will force Knox, Dotson, and Barrett into becoming better all around players. Whoever ends up the odd man out gets traded. Or..it forces Knox into a PF/SF role off the bench which could be great for him if he holds up physically.

    May Fiz should give that a try

  8. Brian Cronin Post author

    Probably the dumbest thing that Fizdale did last year was dump the lineup early in the season that was seemingly working out okay because they weren’t winning games. Of course they weren’t winning games, you nimrod! That wasn’t the point of last season!

  9. DRed

    I’m interested to see how Randle & Mitch work together on offense-Randle has some range and he’s a pretty good playmaker for a bigman but he also seemed to score better as a center on the Pelicans

  10. Z-man

    Traditional roles are not really valid any more. On offense, if Randle can draw a double team and just get the ball up on the rim, he’s gonna get a lot of Kobe assists to Mitch. And if he can dribble well enough to run a PnR going left with Mitch as the screener, there will be lob opportunities. Since Mitch rarely has the ball in his hands beyond catching lobs and dump-offs, he shouldn’t get in Randle’s way.

  11. Stratomatic: Sometimes referred to as Satan

    French Knicks Pod
    @FrenchKnicksPod
    12 points 5 rebounds 3 steals and 2 assist for frank in 15 minutes

    Max him!!!

  12. Stratomatic: Sometimes referred to as Satan

    Last year they gave Randle some free looks from the 3 point line. I want to see what his 3P% is going to be this year if he starts hitting them at a satisfactory rate and they decide to actually close out better and defend him as the season progresses. I still think Randle/Robinson is a good combination on defense, but not ideal on offense.

  13. KnickfaninNJ

    I think the French FIBA team is pretty good. Gobert would play ahead of any of the centers on the US team and Batum is good.

  14. The Honorable Cock Jowles

    Drew Magary just wrote a great short piece on Andrew Luck. How lucky we all are to be primarily obsessed with a game that leaves its retirees whole and virtually all without regret for giving their bodies to the sport.

  15. Brian Cronin Post author

    I still feel bad for NBA players later in life, because their bodies are not built well for aging. Baseball players have it the best, aging-wise.

  16. Z-man

    I’m not writing the Mets off yet. Atlanta is tough and has their number but they just swept a good Indians team. The extra innings loss was a killer, needed that one. But there’s a lot of season left.

  17. dtrickey

    Not to drag on too much, but I was at the Australia v US game on Saturday afternoon. Even though it was only a warm up game that was up there with some of the best sporting moments I have experienced live. Suffice to say there were ample celebratory beers post match. Patty Mills is now a national hero.

    On the Knicks front, I am warming to Randle. Stats aside, I feel there is a real old school toughness to the team with some of the vets, which will at least make things mildly interesting. I don’t think that justifies the signings completely, but if you are looking for a silver lining I think there is at least that.

  18. Bruno Almeida

    I always liked Randle, he’s simply put a very productive player. Yes, there are caveats about his defense, how he gets his numbers and concerns about if he’s going to keep up after getting paid, but getting a young player who’s actually productive is a nice change of pace for this franchise, and that can’t be the worst thing.

    I’m actually excited to see how he’ll play with Mitch, and I’m glad to read that he respects him (and Portis saying he expects Mitch to start is welcome news too).

  19. BigBlueAL

    The NBA History Instagram/Twitter account has been posting highlights of famous blocks all week long and today they posted Hakeem’s block on Starks at the end of Game 6. I will go to my grave believing if he doesn’t block that shot Starks (who was on fire and had scored 16 points in the 4th quarter) drills that 3pter and the Knicks are NBA champions. I’m beginning to think that’s the closest I will ever come in my lifetime to seeing the Knicks win an NBA championship :-(

  20. JK47

    From the frontlines of the SJW wars: I said something was “lame” today on Facebook and some tool said I was being “ableist.”

  21. The Honorable Cock Jowles

    I’m not judging anyone who’s unable or unwilling to cut the cord on Facebook, but my life is happier and more productive since I did. Twitter even more.

    Not having to deal with self-righteous SJWs, meme-sharing boomers or Gadsden paleocons from all angles? Sign me out, please.

  22. JK47

    About 85% of my Facebooking takes place in a closed music group with a bunch of like-minded music fanatics. That group is heaven. Another 5% is posting baby pictures. The last 10% seems to be increasingly devoted to arguing with idiots.

    Gotta cut out that last 10%.

  23. bobneptune

    From the frontlines of the SJW wars: I said something was “lame” today on Facebook and some tool said I was being “ableist.”

    You didn’t retort by calling him an unthinking literalist??? :-)

  24. Early Bird

    Considering his age and KD’s injury, Randle may have been our best option this offseason. I consider him a win and part of the reason I’m more excited about the offseason than some.

  25. Donnie Walsh

    I got rid of Instagram, Facebook, Twitter, and my cell phone.

    (Now if I can just get rid of reading pointless knicks blogs, I’ll really be free…)

  26. JK47

    The worst habit I have is that I can’t let a dumb comment go by without responding to it. It is truly an insidious habit. I just got a new gig that is extremely time consuming so I’m going to have to learn to let shit go. I don’t have time to get Bernsplained all day or discuss whether or not it’s a good idea to give handguns to kindergarten teachers.

    I’ll try to keep my shit talking contained to this fine forum.

  27. Bruno Almeida

    What annoys me the most is that ableism for example is a real issue, yet people will just scream those words in a pointless internet discussion just to try to “win” an argument against anyone. I’d still rather we use those words sorta liberally so at least there’s some discussion about important stuff in the background, but for someone who has been working with theoretical constructs for my entire adult life, this is just super frustrating.

  28. JK47

    What annoys me the most is that ableism for example is a real issue, yet people will just scream those words in a pointless internet discussion just to try to “win” an argument against anyone.

    This same moron then called me a racist because I pointed out that Joe Biden tends to poll better among African American voters than Bernie Sanders does, and followed that up by Bern-splaining to me that AA voters who support Biden are basically fools who vote against their own interests. I’m not even exaggerating, this is exactly how the conversation went down. All in the most sanctimonious, condescending tone you can possibly imagine, like he was dispensing some serious revolutionary wisdom up in there.

    I had to walk away from that one without lighting this guy the fuck up because we have mutual friends and I didn’t want to feed into any drama, and I also didn’t want to spend the rest of my day arguing with this Che Guevara shirt wearing motherfucker. But jeezus what a fucking idiot.

  29. JK47

    I’m ready for some NBA to start. I’m kind of excited to watch this weird lumbering Frankenstein Knicks squad.

  30. Bruno Almeida

    Oh, I definitely know the type. I’ve worked for years with trans people and people of color, and yet everytime I’ve been “accused” in an argument about something bad it was always by these random idiots, who are generally privileged as all hell, but who think they’ve figured it all out and are super smart because they’ve reached the first step towards common sense (or are trans exclusionary feminists, but those are a common nemesis).

    It really makes me think sometimes that all the work that many great people have ever done is being undone in seconds everytime one of those idiots open their mouths, but I guess it comes with the territory.

  31. Totes McGoats as Totes McGoats

    RE: Social Media

    Sadly, we are living in a time where virtual reality is becoming more real than real life to people. That, my friends, is escapism on a cocktail of crack, steroids, and MDMA taken intravenously by a society who- by and large- have to deal with increased and exacerbated stress and anxiety. Alot of it is self inflicted. So…you know what I do when a holier than thou commenter hops on their high horse? “LOL”. Unless of course something gets under my skin or it’s a conversation worth having.

    There are far too many people out there who enjoy judging too much because it makes them forget who they are. At times it makes me feel like we will never have a United, functional society.

  32. Z-man

    The worst habit I have is that I can’t let a dumb comment go by without responding to it. It is truly an insidious habit.

    …and we’re all the better for it!

  33. Owen

    Also strangely excited for this Knicks season. 75% for Robinson and 20% for Frank/Barrett development. I guess I am looking forward to yoked Julius Randle going to work too.

    At this point bad Knicks teams are like my fine wine. I enjoy every new vintage.

  34. DS

    What are people’s thoughts on the Caris LeVert extension? I imagine Dinwiddie (sp.?) and LeVert plus picks will end up being a package for a third superstar once one becomes available. And everyone will laugh at us again.

  35. Hubert

    What are people’s thoughts on the Caris LeVert extension? I imagine Dinwiddie (sp.?) and LeVert plus picks will end up being a package for a third superstar once one becomes available. And everyone will laugh at us again.

    I think LeVert is an excellent player and the Nets are too smart to package their depth of quality players to pick up a third superstar.

    I would hope that, after watching Milwaukee and Toronto be the two best teams in the NBA this year, we can all finally move past the false perception that three stars is the holy grail of team building. It’s undoubtedly great to have three stars, but you’re better off with one or two stars and a 6 deep roster of good two way players. That shouldn’t even be an argument anymore.

  36. Owen

    I don’t really get the love for Lavert. He seems more like a nice guy to have on the bench than a key piece on a playoff team.

  37. Hubert

    Also, assuming Durant loses his defensive prowess upon return from injury (and I think that’s likely), him and Kyrie aren’t exactly the prototypes for a stars and scrubs model because neither of them impact the other end.

  38. DS

    I don’t really get the love for Lavert. He seems more like a nice guy to have on the bench than a key piece on a playoff team.

    It’s similar to the love for D’Angelo Russell, me thinks. A combination of LeVert being very young, being on an up-and-coming team (which people tend to get really excited about, a la the Timberwolves before they cratered) , and being a scoring leader on that team.

  39. Hubert

    I don’t really get the love for Lavert. He seems more like a nice guy to have on the bench than a key piece on a playoff team.

    I think if this is all he ever is, you’re probably right. He seems to be improving, though. His playoff line against a very good Sixers team was impressive. Small sample, I know, but I think it’s an important one.

    I see him and Allen as solid starters that would support Kyrie and Durant very well. Ultimately I think the Nets’ inevitable shortcomings will fall squarely at the feet of the three guys they signed this summer. Kyrie is great but problematic. Durant is likely to decline a lot. Jordan is already firmly in decline.

  40. JK47

    Levert seems like a sort of generic Wilson Chandler type wing to me and his extension is certainly not a bargain. You’re getting his age 25-27 seasons for $17M each, which seems like market value. It makes sense for the win-now Nets.

  41. DS

    I think LeVert is an excellent player and the Nets are too smart to package their depth of quality players to pick up a third superstar.

    I would hope that, after watching Milwaukee and Toronto be the two best teams in the NBA this year, we can all finally move past the false perception that three stars is the holy grail of team building. It’s undoubtedly great to have three stars, but you’re better off with one or two stars and a 6 deep roster of good two way players. That shouldn’t even be an argument anymore.

    Then you’d better hope the Clippers have a major injury or two the way the Warriors did last season, because you’re not beating them with Jarrett Allen, LeVert, and Dinwiddie, and Joe Harris.

  42. The Honorable Cock Jowles

    As noted: Nets are all-in, LeVert is in his prime.

    Unfortunately for them, here are his percentile rankings in the advanced stats:

    POE 26th
    PIPM 26th
    RPM 32nd
    RAPM 12th

    WS48 .077
    BPM -0.2

    He’s getting paid off those torrid shooting games he had in October and November. Pretty crazy, but win curve, I guess. Just going to be a real hard pill to swallow when Durant comes back looking like a different player altogether.

  43. The Honorable Cock Jowles

    It’s undoubtedly great to have three stars, but you’re better off with one or two stars and a 6 deep roster of good two way players.

    The issue is more about the cost of acquiring the stars and the likelihood of making it happen even if you have the space and/or trade assets. The Lakers had room for Kawhi and there’s no way one could argue that they’d be better off with a few decent two-ways in his place.

    One-star teams don’t win championships.

  44. DRed

    Levert is really the sort of guy I wouldn’t want to be paying real money for, but there’s always the promise of him finally learning how to shoot. He’s good at a bunch of stuff, he’s fairly young, this season doesn’t really matter to the Nets and having KD and Kyrie to take some of the offensive burden off him might make it easier for Levert to earn his salary the last two years.

  45. Hubert

    Then you’d better hope the Clippers have a major injury or two the way the Warriors did last season, because you’re not beating them with Jarrett Allen, LeVert, and Dinwiddie, and Joe Harris.

    What superstar (who is likely to be available via trade, i.e. not Giannis) do you think pushes a team of Kyrie, Durant, and an army of waiver pickups and vet minimum guys ahead of the Clippers?

    Kawhi + George is a dynamic combination of elite, two-way stars in their prime. Kyrie + Durant is going to be much less than that. So yeah, you’re right, they’re extremely unlikely to beat the Clippers. But I don’t think the blame falls on guys like Allen, LeVert, and Dinwiddie.

  46. The Honorable Cock Jowles

    Allen is a good complement to Kyrie and pre-Achilles Durant. It’s just that they’re not going to have the peak years for either of those guys. It’s going to be a tough crawl to 48 wins in 2020-21, to say nothing of a deep playoff run. Imagine how Kyrie will act when they’re fighting to get out of the 7-seed (and a first-round matchup with Giannis) in March.

  47. Hubert

    One-star teams don’t win championships.

    The Star + sidekick + depth model has won significantly more titles than the “sell out your depth for three max players” model, which has only ever worked with LeBron James. It most recently won out again, like, two months ago.

    We could get into a semantic argument about what constitutes a “star”. Siakim was excellent, for instance, but he wasn’t someone the Raptors traded all their depth for.

  48. Hubert

    The issue is more about the cost of acquiring the stars and the likelihood of making it happen even if you have the space and/or trade assets. The Lakers had room for Kawhi and there’s no way one could argue that they’d be better off with a few decent two-ways in his place.

    This part I agree with. Obviously you want as many great players as you can acquire. I’m not saying the Nets would be better off without a 3rd star. I’m saying if they give up LeVert, Allen, Dinwiddie and picks to acquire one, they’re not going to win a title with a stars and scrubs model that revolves around Kyrie and Durant.

  49. Ingmarrrr

    JK, my wife passed this along re: Bernie…feel free to share it with your facebook buddy.

    Is this real? The knock on Bernie is that he dodged the draft to avoid fighting in a horribly unjust war, and that until the age of 40 he lived on odd jobs while running for office? Oh, and that he’s driven and some people say he’s not nice to them? Seriously?

    I mean it’s not OK not to be nice but if this is the worst people say about a politician he’s an angel.

  50. thenoblefacehumper

    Is this real? The knock on Bernie is that he dodged the draft to avoid fighting in a horribly unjust war, and that until the age of 40 he lived on odd jobs while running for office? Oh, and that he’s driven and some people say he’s not nice to them? Seriously?

    Wasn’t gonna say anything but I also didn’t see a single compelling thing in that screed

  51. Kevin Udwary

    He didn’t even dodge the draft. From that very “article” it says:

    By the time his draft number came up, he was too old to be drafted anyway.

    I think a lot of the hostility from Bernie supporters comes from unfair criticisms and attacks, and I’m sure that just drives the negative narrative even further. It’s a vicious cycle and we’re all the worse for it.

  52. JK47

    I don’t mind Bernie. He’s… fine. I really have no beef with him. If he wins the nom I’ll vote for him and wouldn’t even hold my nose. Whatever, I’m a Democrat, it’s all good. As long as the guy who wants to nuke the hurricanes gets booted out I’ll be happy.

    What’s annoying is the army of jackass superfans Bernie attracts, who treat him like he’s their favorite member of One Direction or something. They all march in complete lockstep, they all consume the same confirmation bias-feeding media and they all have a deep, deep victimization complex. I’m talking about the real superfans here, the real Bros. They’re insufferable.

  53. JK47

    I think a lot of the hostility from Bernie supporters comes from unfair criticisms and attacks

    Yeah, but this is what politics is. Hillary Clinton wasn’t unfairly attacked? Barack Obama wasn’t unfairly attacked? They need to put on their big boy pants and stop the fucking whining. Politics ain’t beanbag and Bernie isn’t the only candidate ever to get unfairly attacked.

    The other thing that’s annoying about that is that Bernie actually gets treated with kid gloves, because nobody in the D party wants to piss off his thin skinned fanbois. If he thinks the Democratic primary is unfair, just wait until he wins the nom and the full force of the GOP shit cannon is pointed at him.

  54. Kevin Udwary

    Yeah, but this is what politics is. Hillary Clinton wasn’t unfairly attacked? Barack Obama wasn’t unfairly attacked?

    You’re saying Hillary and Obama don’t have their insufferable superfans? They still do and they aren’t running for anything.

  55. The Honorable Cock Jowles

    all I know is that none of the frontrunners for the Dem primary would suggest nuking a hurricane

    we need to stop this purity-test gladiatorial nonsense and focus on helping to remove from office the guy who suggested nuking a hurricane

    because then we will have a POTUS that does not suggest nuking hurricanes

    instead of the politician who suggested nuking a hurricane

  56. geo

    JK, my wife passed this along re: Bernie…feel free to share it with your facebook buddy.

    that was some interesting stuff i did not know…then again, i’m not that big a fan of politics…my only real participation in the whole process is to vote…shoot, half the time i can barely figure out what the different measures i’m voting on even mean…normally, i’ll vote along party lines…

    someone had mentioned at one time removing party affiliations from the ballot, maybe not a bad idea…

    but yeah, bernie the dead beat dad really clicked for me…well done “critical” piece :)

  57. Name is Bron - James Bron

    Bernie would be our next President – and a transformational one at that – if he’d take my simple advice: Be a single issue candidate and that issue should be a constitutional amendment to eliminate corporate and fat cat money from politics. Call it “The Clean Government” amendment. Place the proposed amendment on his website. Pressure all incumbents and candidates to sign a pledge committing to vote for amendment. Keep a list on his website of those who have signed the pledge and those who have refused.

    No issue receives more bipartisan support in polling (and it’s especially popular with so-called independents). It would be an uphill battle since he’d have all the power brokers against him: 1) corporate interests like Pharm, Oil; 2) fat cats like the remaining Koch brother 3) even the media because the amendment would have to limit “issues advertising” before election 4) his fellow incumbent Senators who rely on that money to be re-elected. But that should just energize him and donations would pour in. Voters wouldn’t care about his stance on health care and other issues because most voters would be single issue voters if he makes this the issue and his platform. Bernie is the best candidate to make this happen because voters wouldn’t trust any of the others to follow through once elected.

  58. geo

    Online sportsbook BetOnline has the U.S. National Team as the -225 fave to win its third FIBA World Cup championship in a row. Following the NBA talents of the U.S. is Serbia (+350), Greece (+1000), Spain (+1600), France (+2800), Canada (+3300), Australia (+4000), Lithuania (+5000), Argentina (+8000) and Russia (+10000) to round out the top 10.

    not sure if there’s a USA versus the field bet (not even sure if it makes betting sense), but, i’d be inclined to bet with the field on this one…

  59. JK47

    In retrospect they sort of did a pretty good job with the first reboot movie, The Force Awakens. Yeah, it was the same movie as Star Wars (fuck you it’s not called A New Hope) but the characters were pretty decent and it looked good. I was entertained.

    This last one looks like it’s gonna be an overstuffed mess like The Last Jedi.

  60. geo

    i liked rogue one a bunch…reminded me of the clone wars (on season six now) where everyone is dying all over the place…

    no doubt it’s the grimest cartoon series i’ve ever seen…and, i love it…

    still can’t believe ahsoka hasn’t made it on to the big screen yet…would absolutely love to see another feature film with anakin in it…that hayden stuff really killed the character for me…enjoyed how he was portrayed in the clone wars though, where you get the opportunity to really see (and understand) his conversion to the dark side…

    at least through the first 5 plus seasons of clone wars you can understand how someone could definitely develop a fuck the jedi kind of mind set…

    I’m not into any streaming services at the moment – but, that disney + service might be hard to pass up (friend just told me they may bundle it with espn + and hulu all together)…the mandalorian might just be must watch stuff…

  61. KnickerBloggerPowerRankings

    Bernie had my vote in 2016, dude hasn’t really done anything to lose it imo. Generalizing Bernie supporters is a silly thing to do. Y’all are smarter than that. Either way I’m not sure how Trump wins the next election. He’s lost libertarians, white women, and everyone whose paid a shit ton in taxes for the first time.

    However, my dream ticket with the current crop for the general is Warren President with Al Franken as VP. Now that would be great TV.

    jotd: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t7SvtikTkrM

  62. The Honorable Cock Jowles

    A folding double lightsaber? I’m sorry, that’s just dumb.

    Not if you’re the Sr. Director of Merchandising for Disney, Inc.

  63. geo

    Either way I’m not sure how Trump wins the next election.

    yeah, george answered your question many years ago:

    “Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that.”

  64. JK47

    I’m not generalizing all Bernie supporters. The vast majority of them are totally normal. Most of my friends are Bernie or Liz supporters. I’ll prolly vote Liz myself.

    There’s a dedicated rump of annoying fanbois that really get my goat though. And they tend to be noisy.

  65. KnickerBloggerPowerRankings

    @Geo I feel like that logic mostly applied in 2016. It was a close race in swing states (Ohio, Pennsylvania, etc.) and the most of deciding factors were a combo of:

    – Extremely flawed candidate in Hillary Clinton (who lost to an out of nowhere Obama when it was “her time”)
    – Democrats controlling the presidency for 8 years (not often does the party retain the white house past that)
    – Comey
    – Russian tomfoolery

    Trump has been shedding his base like crazy. Again, libertarians see through his bullshit. He’s lost ground with White Women. Truckers, etc. are owing thousands in taxes for the first time.

    I would be shocked to see dude win again. I understand the fear, but frankly don’t see it happen. Americans are dumb as rocks but Trump doesn’t have his boisterous brand cache he had in 2016 and won’t be facing a candidate who has been growing a long list of enemies since the early 90s.

    The only path I see for Trump to win is if the dems throw Biden out there.

  66. The Honorable Cock Jowles

    There’s a dedicated rump of annoying fanbois that really get my goat though

    I plan to throw support behind Liz or Bernie, depending on whoever’s closest to overtaking Biden in the home stretch. And if it ends up Biden, I will vote for him and tell everyone I know to vote for him. But the bros who say “nominate Bernie or I’m staying home” can eat my ass.

  67. JK47

    Biden’s not a good candidate. He’s just a familiar face who has fallen upward because he’s stuck around for a long time. I worry that young voters will stay home if he’s the nom. He was never the sharpest tack in the drawer to begin with and he has a real “old guy who can’t operate his iPhone” vibe to him.

    Trump really needs to pull an inside straight though. It looks like PA and MI might be lost causes, so he’ll need to hold serve on every other state including Wisconsin and hope to eke out a 269-269 tie. AZ is turning blue too, and the only possible blue state that might flip is MN, which seems like a long shot.

    Trump also has to hope he can run out the clock before the economy goes into the ditch which is starting to look unlikely.

  68. JK47

    I just did some recording with Ariel, we made a track for a comp that’s coming out later this year, just me and him. Will post that ish here when it comes out

  69. KnickerBloggerPowerRankings

    @JK that makes me happy. They touring anytime soon?

    edit: i googled and found out.

  70. geo

    @KnickerBloggerPowerRankings …thanks, that helped brighten my day :)

    i wish it were just about him being a scumbag and saying stupid shit, but, he’s seriously fucking things up…

    for you star wars fans – here’s something to hold out hope for:
    the mandalorian

    hell yeah, give me some more of that…

  71. JK47

    Fun fact: it was your own JK47 who suggested “Mature Themes” as the album title.

    It was gonna be “Farewell American Primitive,” which would have been kind of funny because of the FAP acronym

  72. geo

    thank jowles for posting, and thanks jk for helping to make it all happen…i’ve listened to a number of AP’s songs now and watched a few of the videos…the music on its own is one thing, but, listening to the music and watching the vid images fucks me up a little…especially that one with that skinny dude smoking…

    it’s like marrying up the music with the images glitches my brain out a bit…it’s a little challenging…i guess though that’s what really good art does…leaves you wondering what exactly did i just experience

  73. The Honorable Cock Jowles

    My wife insists that “Mature Themes” is about getting emotionally serious with a lover, while I insist that when I sing it to her, it’s 100% about hot phone sex.

  74. Grocer

    This last one looks like it’s gonna be an overstuffed mess like The Last Jedi.

    For real. They’ve always been kids movies, no big deal, but it was way too long. Huge chunks just dragged on forever to no purpose. It could have been 30 minutes shorter without losing anything.

  75. GianaDani

    ither way I’m not sure how Trump wins the next election. He’s lost libertarians, white women, and everyone whose paid a shit ton in taxes for the first time.

    Look for 2016 to repeat itself. Snowflake pundits will continually say no path…no path till the very end.

  76. JK47

    The whole Finn subplot in The Last Jedi was basically a shaggy dog story. Every minor character doesn’t need a story arc. It’s like if they spent 20 minutes of Return Of The Jedi following Nien Nunb trying to find some secret space plans but then he never finds them and everybody just sort of shrugs their shoulders.

    Finn was a pretty fresh character in The Force Awakens, they should have just had him do some hero pilot shit in The Last Jedi and been done with it.

    They’re also back to a generic CGI look in these last two movies after making a point of getting away from that in The Force Awakens.

  77. GianaDani

    Really hope Randle can be that good efficiency high usage guy who also makes others a little better. Always knew that this front office is managing trying to stay employed as oppose to swing for the fences; Randle and his contract are the max risk they are willing to assume.

  78. geo

    A folding double lightsaber? I’m sorry, that’s just dumb.

    who’s the coolest kid on this site today – yeah, that’d be me – all day…turns out this isn’t the first appearance of a folding double lightsaber in the star wars canon – pong krell used them (he had two, krell himself had like four arms) in ‘darkness on umbara’…

    it’s not easy being this freaking cool, ya know :)

    Pong Krell was a powerful Force-user. His Besalisk anatomy allowed him to wield two Double-bladed lightsabers at the same time.[9] Krell’s weapons were unique, as they could fold in the middle, making them easier to carry.[5] He wielded his lightsabers with deadly precision, spinning them like buzz saws to have devastating effect, and he was capable of killing many clone troopers with ease. He could also deflect an innumerable amount of blaster bolts with ease.[3]

  79. Grocer

    Every minor character doesn’t need a story arc.

    They tried to make every single little thing a whole moment, and ended up losing the plot. The thing is, Lucas is a shitty editor and always has been and he carried all his bad editor traits over into producing. Other people have mostly shaken the bad plot construction out of them but his tendency to dwell on unimportant details and let scenes drag out forever are still there. Yes, I know, somebody else got paid to take the rap, but when the faults are all the same it’s probably a water fowl.

  80. Z-man

    I don’t expect much from DSjr but it would be awesome if he breaks out in a big way to ease the pain of getting fleeced by Dallas in the KP trade and drafting Frank over him.

  81. vincoug

    No issue receives more bipartisan support in polling (and it’s especially popular with so-called independents).

    Who cares how well it polls? Who’s basing their vote on this one issue? What Republican/conservative/glibertarian changes their vote from their preferred candidate to Bernie Sanders based on this one issue?

  82. Stratomatic: Sometimes referred to as Satan

    At the very peak of his powers in terms of energy and intellect (20-30 years ago), Biden was not considered the top candidate in the democrat party. Even after Gary Hart (who was the leader at the time) was forced out he was still never in a solid position to win the nomination. He’s a “has been that never was”. That he is near the top is a damning statement about the other candidates. The only reason he’s in contention now is that he’s the only moderate with any name recognition. The rest of the major candidates are closet semi-socialists and crack pots. The DNC and media do not want to give any other moderate any momentum.

    Clinton had the resume, experience, name recognition, money and media to beat Trump. The only reason she lost was because she’s the most corrupt and hated politician of my lifetime. If the democrats put up a moderate like her (but not a “has been” like Biden), they would win at least 45 states in one of the greatest landslides in history.

    If they put up one of these closet socialists, they may win anyway, but that will give Trump a fighting chance. Loads of young idealistic people find these semi-socialists attractive, but much of the country thinks they are loons that don’t understand how the real world and economy works. It won’t be easy to convince them otherwise.

    My mother is a lifelong democrat that dislikes Trump. So are many of my friends. When I ask them about Bernie and Warren, they say “crackpots”. Many democrats are still very moderate and so are most independents. Those people are all still in play for Trump if the wrong candidate is put up. You can’t judge the country by young NY liberals and their friends.

  83. dtrickey

    FWIW, I really enjoyed TLJ. For years people cried out for Star Wars to give us something different and we got it with TLJ. My only criticisms though would be that the pacing seems off (i.e. the whole sub-plot with the rebels running out of fuel seemed poorly paced with Finn’s story) and Captain Phasma wasn’t given the opportunity to shine after significant hype. All that being said I am a bit of a Star Wars homer so can generally find positives in all the films ha ha.

    On DSj I am really hoping that rebuilt shot is for real. You can take the pro-am footage with a grain of salt, I think if you look deeper at his mechanics, it looks significantly better than last year. Seems to be really trying to shake the whole “DSj can only dunk” this off-season.

  84. Stratomatic: Sometimes referred to as Satan

    what’s so “crackpot” about warren?

    If you think we need to make “unions” stronger and give them representation on the board of directors of major corporations to make decisions about their own compensation, benefits, and business direction you are a “crackpot”.

    The middle class has economic problems. Some of it is the result of being gutted by globalism, free trade, and cheaper labor being brought into the county. How to deal with that is a debate that needs to happen. But one of the reasons the country was gutted so quickly was that unions committed suicide when they had a strong hand in negotiations. They don’t have a strong hand now and giving them one would be suicidal.

    I don’t have any great ideas. The free trade genie and all that cheap labor is out of the bottle, but I am 100% certain unions are not the answer and if you think they are you have no idea how the real world works.

    (I used to belong to a union. So I get it. For years I argued that we were going to kill ourselves long term with some of the benefits we won in negotiations and refused to give back. The company eventually went bankrupt. No shock to me).

  85. geo

    thanks strat…i don’t follow this stuff too closely, was just wondering…a tend to agree with your view of unions…

    seems like a pretty small issue though…seeing how i’ll probably follow the crowd and support warren as my first choice – i suppose i should do a little homework and read up on some of her policy ideas…

  86. geo

    my biggest issue with the last jedi was the weird balance between: sci-fi and action and all the goofy campiness…

    that scene with solo and leia standing over the table with everyone trying to figure out a plan of attack was just horrible…what a buzz kill that was…

  87. Grocer

    The only reason he’s in contention now is that he’s the only moderate with any name recognition.

    He was Obama’s VP and Obama remains extremely popular. Mayor Pete is a moderate, he has name recognition, basically no one gives a shit.

    It’s strange to me that this cult of the moderate has lasted. A moderate president gets nothing done unless their party controls both houses. They promote a mixed executive branch which means no effective change in any federal organization. The mechanisms which let moderates govern effectively don’t exist anymore. There’s no point to it unless you’re enamored of the status quo.

    It’s also hard to be one. Lots of folks are single issue voters, across an array of things. Abortion, guns, immigration, civil rights, the list is huge. Hardliners control the primaries for both chambers and don’t allow the once common vague answers on these issues anymore. Moderates are rare and embattled. Add to that the difficulty they have in getting anything done and what’s the point?

    The great middle has really stong opinions on a couple of things, varying from person to person. Many say they want a moderate, but what they want is someone who holds a fairly extreme stance on a few issues but is adaptable and pragmatic on everything else.

    E.g., Warren. This is an intelligent, well respected (before entering politics anyway) economics prof who used to be a Republican and whose stances changed as our economy changed. I’d call that pragmatic. Others think it’s a purity fail. Strat thinks Warren is banana cakes because she doesn’t adhere to his preference on his issues of particular importance.

    Asking for moderates is asking to roll back the clock to before the rise of movement conservatism, and before occupy. It’s a folly for folks that like to hear themselves talk, nothing more. I’m surprised I’m not into it.

  88. MBunge

    they would win at least 45 states in one of the greatest landslides in history.

    Trump’s average job approval rating is around 43%. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_trump_job_approval-6179.html

    Bad when you’re running for re-election but perfectly normal in recent Presidential history. His disapproval ratings are averaging closer to 54%, which is bad but considering Trump has gotten the worst and most negative media coverage in modern American history, not surprising. Let’s remember the media spent two years letting people baselessly accuse him of being a traitor.

    The numbers say Trump has got a small but still credible chance to win in 2020. A big question is whether the media environment is affecting those numbers. Is there going to be a reverse “Bradley effect” of people not admitting they’re going to vote for Trump?

    Mike

  89. Grocer

    my biggest issue with the last jedi was the weird balance between: sci-fi and action and all the goofy campiness…

    It was always a series for 13 & 14 year olds, this is what that kinda looks, like? If you read some YA genre fiction you’ll get what I mean, horrifying violence backed with “omg he didn’t text back, what do I do?!”

    that scene with solo and leia standing over the table with everyone trying to figure out a plan of attack was just horrible…what a buzz kill that was…

    It is embarrassingly poorly edited. I don’t blame the post team, there’s so much lore to handle right and such extreme consequences to fucking it up. Hats off the the MCU crew who handle it with aplomb.

    Wrath of Khan is a better film than any of the Star Wars films.

  90. geo

    uh oh…i’ve just been corrected…the scene around the table was actually from the force awakens – which i actually liked, although not a fan of that particular scene…

    hmmmm, now that i think of it…not sure how much i even really remember of the last jedi…

  91. Name is Bron - James Bron

    Who cares how well it polls? Who’s basing their vote on this one issue? What Republican/conservative/glibertarian changes their vote from their preferred candidate to Bernie Sanders based on this one issue?

    It's not just the poll numbers; it's the strength of feeling. Most people believe the system is corrupt and want real change and they feel very strongly about that. There's only one way to fix it and that's through a constitutional amendment. These are the voting groups it would most influence:
    – Independents (who usually decide presidential elections)
    – Young people (who need a strong reason to get out and vote)
    – Working class voters (Reagan Democrats) who believe the system is stacked against them
    – Moderate suburban educated Republicans

    The real question is not the election (Bernie would win) but whether the amendment would garner sufficient votes by legislators to pass. That's a far more complicated question. Many Republicans who would never vote for Bernie would want this amendment passed if he were elected and they might be more inclined to vote against a legislator (versus their vote for President) who opposed it and vote for another R in the primary.

  92. thenoblefacehumper

    I have no idea where to even start with these Strat takes. They’re all wrong, and some of them literally verifiably so!

    By what measure is HRC more corrupt than Donald Trump? On what planet is any politician in either party capable of winning one of the biggest landslides in the history of US presidential elections with the country more polarized than it’s ever been? Are you aware that union representation on corporate boards hasn’t derailed, say, France and Germany?

    I mean, it’s the same shit as the basketball takes. You’ve decided Phil Jackson was a good executive and won’t absorb any evidence to the contrary, so now you have to create a fantasy world that exists to prove that’s true. You’ve decided “socialism bad,” so you won’t take 5 minutes to find out that the stuff you’re deriding is accepted as non-controversial, sensible public policy the world over.

    Do you, dude, but I really think your life will be enriched if you become just a tad more open to things that don’t conform to exactly what your gut tells you.

  93. Name is Bron - James Bron

    Warren’s issue is she doesn’t project well on television. Americans gravitate toward a charismatic or likeable personality. George H W Bush was the one outlier in this respect. Thatcher could never have been elected in the US regardless of her politics. Warren is too much of a school marm vibe. Since the last presidential election was so close, everything mattered but HRC’s public personality was a key factor. Bernie and Biden both meet the personality criterion.

  94. vincoug

    You can’t judge the country by young NY liberals and their friends.

    No, apparently we should judge the country by your friends. Makes much more sense.

  95. DRed

    I don’t like Hillary Clinton-she’s certainly corrupt, but she might not even be illegally corrupt. Since this is a stats based blog I’d be interested to know what metrics Strat is using to figure out which of our politicians are the ‘most corrupt’.

  96. JK47

    What the Democrats should really do is listen to people who are not Democrats, like David Brooks and Strat here.

    Wait a minute, I think I figured it out. Strat is David Brooks.

    #GalaxyBrain

  97. Bruno Almeida

    @109

    Ouch. That one hurt even to read, and made me remember when strat declared racism is not a big issue in corporations because he never saw racism in the companies he’s worked for.

  98. The Honorable Cock Jowles

    how the real world […] works

    this is the true story
    of 7 strangers
    picked to live in a house
    and have their lives taped

    to find out what happens
    when people stop being polite
    and start getting
    real

    The Real World

  99. JK47

    I’m not gonna fall for the concern troll trick of “if the Democrats nominated (insert hopeless longshot here) I’d vote for them.” This ain’t my first rodeo.

  100. KnickfaninNJ

    Tnfh, I agree that there is a lot more evidence that Trump is corrupt than that HRC is corrupt, not even counting all the associates of Trump that have been actually convicted. Buf I don’t agree about the unions in France. France is in serious economic trouble because of all the constraining work rules they have.

  101. swiftandabundant

    That take on warren’s personality feels like someone who has only watched cursory clips of her. If you hear her speak or debate, she comes across as warm, knowledgeable and passionate about her ideas but also not condescending. Admittedly she isn’t the car in the side of the road on fire that trump is where you can’t help but watch in morbid fascination but she has way more charisma and personality than Hillary.

  102. geo

    So far, 10 candidates have met both thresholds (Candidates must receive contributions from at least 130,000 individuals, coming from at least 400 unique donors in 20 or more states. They also need to reach 2% in at least four DNC-approved polls.), qualifying them for the debates scheduled for September 12 and 13:
    Former Vice President Joe Biden
    New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker
    Mayor Pete Buttigieg
    Former Housing and Urban Development Secretary Julián Castro
    California Sen. Kamala Harris
    Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar
    Former Rep. Beto O’Rourke
    Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders
    Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren
    Businessman Andrew Yang

    i’ll try to remember to tune in…

  103. Hubert

    Since this is a stats based blog I’d be interested to know what metrics Strat is using to figure out which of our politicians are the ‘most corrupt’.

    You do generally throw out a lot stuff that doesn’t seem true, Strat. I’d like to follow up about a comment you made earlier in the thread re: Randle that had me scratching my head:

    Last year they gave Randle some free looks from the 3 point line. I want to see what his 3P% is going to be this year if he starts hitting them at a satisfactory rate and they decide to actually close out better and defend him as the season progresses.

    Is there literally any evidence that teams last year decided not to close out on Randle and gave him free looks?

  104. slovene knick

    I became aware of EW through the low point that really revealed what kind of deliberate sinister racist AH the man is. It was when he held the ceremony for Navajo WWII code speakers in front of the AJ portrait and mentioned Pocahontas while talking praise to native Americans. Grouse.
    Only a brain like that is capable of suggesting sui-nuking. Fuck you hurricane, we’ll nuke you back to stone age. TF?
    But as a European my only concern are foreign policy views of candidates…and in this regard Clinton and Obama said nice words, tried diplomacy but really did the dirty deeds while Trump talks shit while his actions haven’t worsen the situation around Mediterranean. For now.
    On the opposite, the situation is moderately stable around here if you compare it to late Obama mandate.
    So how is Warren in that regard(middle east)…hope she shares no values with Clinton.
    May your votes have lucky hands for You and the world.

  105. Unreason

    @96
    Warren’s plan for corporate boards/shareholders is more nuanced and interesting than just giving unions more power. Here’s a good discussion of it: https://www.vox.com/2018/8/15/17683022/elizabeth-warren-accountable-capitalism-corporations

    Her economic reform ideas extend way beyond that plan. Her proposed trade policy requirements might be as protectionist as Trump’s and Bernie’s, and might have similar downsides – weaken the overall economy and increase everyone’s cost of living.

    But the corporate reform stuff is generally well received across most political segments of the population when not attached to a particular candidate or party. So her ability to sell it might have more to do with how well she can control voter’s assumptions about her and her ideas.

    She’s an egg head and egg heads like her. Her folksy campaigning shtick plays a bit better with non-egg heads than her opponents would have you think. Can she wrest control of her image in the minds of people who held their nose when they voted for Trump? They’ll be told she’s a crackpot a lot. Breaking through that will be tough.

    But the parties are realigning and the criteria for classifying policies and people as “radical” are being recast on all sides. Interesting times.

  106. The Honorable Cock Jowles

    But as a European my only concern are foreign policy views of candidates

    I understand this, but the health of the American economy affects everyone. Trump’s “policies” are designed to inflate numbers long enough to get him re-elected. But then again, it’s very difficult economists, to say nothing of laypeople, to project how any individual candidate will affect the global economy. (We can’t even figure out how players attacking Randle on a close-out for allegedly the very first time in his career will affect his efficiency.)

  107. Dough Chew

    Jeremy Lin to the Beijing Ducks. Get your money, brother.

    Linsanity was, and still is, the most meaningful time for me to be a sports fan. I don’t know if I’ll ever experience anything like it again.

  108. Dough Chew

    Also, I loved The Last Jedi because I enjoy a deconstructionist narrative, and I also love things that are aesthetically compelling and weird.

  109. d-mar

    Elizabeth Warren is everything Trump is not: thoughtful, well spoken, super intelligent and full of meaningful policy ideas

    And if she runs against Trump it’ll be a close race, which is a really sad commentary on our country.

  110. JK47

    I didn’t mind the contrarian nature of The Last Jedi, and I thought the Kylo/Rey stuff was pretty interesting.

    Overall it’s kind of a dud though because the storytelling is weak. It’s just full of shaggy dog/red herring stuff. It tries so hard to subvert your expectations that it gets kind of tiresome.

    Like the whole “is Holdo a traitor” storyline, that is so undercooked. She’s a great rebel war hero! Or maybe not! Wait, she is again! They didn’t really earn the payoff when she does the kamikaze bit.

    It’s just clunky and overstuffed. There are some nice moments in it and it’s still better than any of the prequel turds, which are unwatchable.

  111. Hubert

    Elizabeth Warren is everything Trump is not: thoughtful, well spoken, super intelligent and full of meaningful policy ideas

    And if she runs against Trump it’ll be a close race, which is a really sad commentary on our country.

    She’s standing on a land mine. She can get through the whole primary without her fraudulent claims of Native American ancestry harming her, but as soon as she wins the nomination, her foot comes off that mine and it blows up. Pocahontas might be cruel and racist, but that shit sticks. Like Dukakis and the tank, or Kerry and the swift boat, or Hillary and the emails.

    Of course, Trump will probably trigger 25-30 land mines along the way. But he seems remarkably impervious to setting them off.

  112. swiftandabundant

    Its literally the only knock on her is that she made that claim, which is something a lot of white people in this country have done. I hate to say she should stoop to his level, but I think Hillary was a little too nice too Trump and there is sooo much more ammo this time around for a candidate to use against him. It won’t change his supporter’s minds but those who maybe voted for him the first time around and grew tired of his antics need to be reminded.

    I understand the angst about any candidate against Trump. The last election and the last few years have been super traumatizing…but we can take this fucker down. Warren can do it. And it would be sweet sweet justice for it to be a woman to do it.

  113. slovene knick

    I’m not endorsing Trump…hell no. He is shifting the reality in uncharted waters when it comes to statesman of postwar age.
    But his image/mouth is far worse than actions are(except the Mexican border).
    I’m trying pointing to whats obvious.You have really tough voting decisions to make for us all.
    As for trade wars…they are ok in comparison to real wars like the one in Jemen.
    And protectionism is the first step towards new trade negotiations. And new trade deals.
    Before elections i bet Trump will have some kind of a trade deal with China that makes him look like a savior.
    I hope for a much better dem candidate than HC was.

  114. JK47

    I’m so sick of the double standard.

    One candidate openly wants to fuck his daughter, ran a scam university in his name that bilked people out of money with high pressure sales tactics, lies about ten times in public per day, pays off porn stars that he fucked while his wife had recently given birth, and on and on and on. But it’s a deal breaker because Liz Warren fudged her ethnicity once.

    Yeah, fuck that.

  115. Ingmarrrr

    I’m so sick of the double standard.

    One candidate openly wants to fuck his daughter, ran a scam university in his name that bilked people out of money with high pressure sales tactics, lies about ten times in public per day, pays off porn stars that he fucked while his wife had recently given birth, and on and on and on. But it’s a deal breaker because Liz Warren fudged her ethnicity once.

    Yeah, fuck that.

    Exactly.

  116. d-mar

    I’m so sick of the double standard.

    One candidate openly wants to fuck his daughter, ran a scam university in his name that bilked people out of money with high pressure sales tactics, lies about ten times in public per day, pays off porn stars that he fucked while his wife had recently given birth, and on and on and on. But it’s a deal breaker because Liz Warren fudged her ethnicity once.

    Yeah, fuck that.

    +1000%

  117. GianaDani

    (We can’t even figure out how players attacking Randle on a close-out for allegedly the very first time in his career will affect his efficiency.)

    Spot on. Love it.

    Many people get caught up comparing different political and economical systems without accounting for differences in culture, comparative advantages, work ethic, religion and its principles, population size, land mass and its fertility, diversity of thought, race and ethnicity, existence of institutionalized pillars such universities, civil courts and precedents, etc…

    The road to championships and nirvana is very complicated. Monarchies are now thankfully extinct. Many different political systems can work. My point is we just don’t know if a new “its different this time” form of democratic socialism could work here in the USA. But the odds are very very low, its like hiring Pringles to coach the New York Bricks of the 90’s to play Rockets style of basketball. USA just doesn’t have the right pieces for this style. If elected, Bernie has the same chance of success. Culture eats strategy for breakfast. The downside, however, is brutal & may put the entire union at risk.

  118. swiftandabundant

    The double standard is infuriating, doubly so because its coming from the party that supposedly stands for morality and all that bullshit.

    If Warren wins the nomination and Trump or any of his surrogates bring that up, she should literally say “is that all you got on me?” And then list all of the things you just said (and more). We shouldn’t play nice this election. That doesn’t mean hurling unprovoked insults without any policy substance. But if attacked, we should fight back hard and not take shit from this clown. The whole air of civility thing went out the window with this ass clown.

  119. DRed

    Our Frank has made the final cut for the France World Cup team, so we can argue about him some more next month

  120. bobneptune

    Its literally the only knock on her is that she made that claim, which is something a lot of white people in this country have done.

    Let me point out why Trump is wishing for Warren or Bernie. I’ll give you the deplorables’ POV that you don’t get in your echo chamber.

    The Warren fauxcohantas stuff goes to the soul of her candidacy…. namely she is an exulted egg head Harvard law professor. The notion that she blatantly lied and falsified her application to Harvard undercuts all that. Clearly she thought she needed the boost and likely “took” that job from someone more qualified. But there is worse stuff…. stuff that will sink her when 30 second commercials are blasted round the clock. It will be worse for her than Willie Horton of the tank drive with the oversized helmet was for Dukakis.

    Her candidacy is supposed to be that she is all-in for the little guy… especially women…. well…… it seems a big payday from Dow Chemical was more important to get than women suing Dow for leaky implants. She advised Dow (as an expert on bankruptcy ) how to minimize their exposure and minimize their payments to the victim.

    Prepare to have this pounded into your melons….don’t say you weren’t warned….

    https://www.enidnews.com/news/dow-breast-implant-case-spotlights-elizabeth-warren-s-work-helping/article_154b519a-ad66-11e9-bd4c-7fd7ada3e5bc.html

  121. JK47

    Oh noes, the GOP is going to unleash a scorched earth smear campaign against the Dem candidate?

    Well, I am shocked, I tells you!

    Perhaps there is some perfect saint who has never gotten a jaywalking ticket that can run against the guy that is on tape saying he enjoys grabbing women by the pussy.

  122. bobneptune

    Oh noes, the GOP is going to unleash a scorched earth smear campaign against the Dem candidate?

    Well, I am shocked, I tells you!

    Perhaps there is some perfect saint who has never gotten a jaywalking ticket that can run against the guy that is on tape saying he enjoys grabbing women by the pussy.

    You realize that sort of hubris is what got a superior candidate beaten last time, amirite? And when there is no good retort to the allegation smarm might be the best policy….

    And , by the way the last two R;s that played by the Marquis of Queensbury rules ( sane highly qualified men like McCain and Romney) got schwanzed.

  123. bobneptune

    Perhaps there is some perfect saint who has never gotten a jaywalking ticket that can run against the guy that is on tape saying he enjoys grabbing women by the pussy.

    I am sure you are aware Trump’s character is already pretty well baked into the equation at this point, right? You know the deplorables think, ” I know he’s a prick….. but he’s my prick and sometime I want a prick to stand up for me.” The D (and the R parties) cut the working guy in this country loose in the 1990’s and they finally had enough and shifted over….

  124. Donnie Walsh

    I don’t have any great ideas. The free trade genie and all that cheap labor is out of the bottle, but I am 100% certain unions are not the answer and if you think they are you have no idea how the real world works.

    The ironic thing is that strong US trade unions (along with our two-party system that breeds moderation), were probably the most important factor in keeping America from succumbing to fascism during the first half of the 20th century. But who remembers that, right?

    Relatively moderate crackpots don’t seem so bad next to Stalin, Mussolini, Hitler, Franco, Mao, et al.

  125. Frank O.

    I do love listening to over ripe commentary like Hillary was the most corrupt politician, when, again, all we have seen are people on the right saying absolutely anything, from murder to a Benghazi claim, and not once has a GOP prosecutor or congressional committee ever leveled any actually legal charges against her supposed corruption. Repeating a talking point a thousand times isn’t the same as truth. So either she did nothing or GOP law enforcement types are so generally incompetent they never were able to levy a charge that could hold up in court.

    Meanwhile president Trump has led literally a corrupt administration and campaign, where several of his appointments are actually doing time. And the Mueller investigation has clearly laid out 10 cases of obstruction of justice against him, and New York has cited him as person of interest in an illegal pay-off scheme in the Michael Cohen case involving two women Trump ordered paid off, and openly lied about it, to hide his affairs with them.
    And this is so much more.
    Imagine for a moment if Obama had ever used the presidency to promote his own money making scheme as the president has, like for example promoting his property to be the site of the next G-7. This is corruption 101. And he lies…

    So please tell me more about Warren, without even having the self-awareness to mention the sitting grifter-in-chief as being literally the most corrupt president since Nixon…

    and I’m thrilled to see Trump’s job approval in old Virginia is 27%.

    I can’t wait for 2020. Put Warren, or Harris, or hell, Mayor Pete on a debate stage with the stable genius. I can’t wait to see them eat his lunch.

  126. The Honorable Cock Jowles

    I am sure you are aware Trump’s character is already pretty well baked into the equation at this point, right? You know the deplorables think, ” I know he’s a prick….. but he’s my prick and sometime I want a prick to stand up for me.”

    fucking scumbags, fuck all of them

  127. Donnie Walsh

    It will be worse for her than Willie Horton of the tank drive with the oversized helmet was for Dukakis.

    I think the Lee Atwater playbook is pretty moot here in the 21st century. The republican candidate was on camera saying this “I better use some Tic Tacs just in case I start kissing her. You know I’m automatically attracted to beautiful—I just start kissing them. It’s like a magnet. Just kiss. I don’t even wait. And when you’re a star, they let you do it. You can do anything. Grab ’em by the pussy. You can do anything” three weeks before the last election and he actually gained momentum from it. Dukakis in a tank and Willie Horton on Furlough is, like, so boring it would put voters to sleep.

  128. thenamestsam

    While I 100% agree with the general line of JK47’s argument here I’ll just say that even summarizing it as “she fudged her ethnicity” is giving into the smear in a real way. She was raised being told she was part native american. She repeated these stories and believed they were true, as most of us do with our family lore. It turns out that those stories were…most likely true, based on the genetic testing she had done, but of course it’s a relatively minor sliver of her heritage.

    So now, at best, the argument becomes a fairly technical one about affirmative action – how much of a percentage of your heritage should qualify you or whatever. And that’s even conceding that she gained some advantage from this, which the Boston Globe did an extensive investigation and found that she did not (although of course it’s complicated and not something you can really say with 100% certainty). So yeah, as JK47 is saying, no matter who the Ds pick the media machine (which Trump’s one true skill is manipulating) is going to stir up enough junk, and most people’s media literacy is so poor, that all they end up hearing is “Both Liz Warren and DJT have scandals”. But there’s no reason to help it along.

  129. swiftandabundant

    So bobneptune, who should go against Trump then? Biden? He has plenty from his political history that he can be attacked on. Even Mayor Pete isn’t a saint. Bernie can be attacked as a socialist. I mean, what the fuck is even the point of running against Trump if we have to have some perfect candidate who has never done anything wrong while Trump is allowed to be the most corrupt president ever? This is the hypocrisy that needs to be talked about and addressed head on.

    Also, I don’t give a fuck about the deplorables. They aren’t changing their mind and them alone cannot put him over the top again. In Wisconsin, for example. Trump won the state even though he received less votes than Romney did in 2012. Its just that Hillary received A LOT less votes than Obama.

    To win, Dems need to get the base excited. I can see Warren, maybe Bernie, Pete or Kamala doing that. I can’t see Biden doing that. Also, to win the Dems need to get that sliver of voters who voted for Obama and then Trump to go back to their side. In my opinion running a centrist, middle of the road career politician like Biden is not the recipe to do that. I feel pretty positive Warren can get the base, women and POC excited for her, more than Hillary did.

  130. geo

    I can’t wait for 2020. Put Warren, or Harris, or hell, Mayor Pete on a debate stage with the stable genius. I can’t wait to see them eat his lunch.

    this won’t be some well monitored high school debate…it’s gonna be a cafeteria fight…

    Culture eats strategy for breakfast.

    i had never heard this before…i like this quote…a good reminder to not forget about the people actually involved, and, to take into account not just where you want to go, but, where you currently are…

  131. JK47

    Look, any D candidate is going to be smeared as the greatest Satan who ever walked the planet. I wasn’t born yesterday.

  132. Frank O.

    And the Warren smear is so laughable when compared to Trump posing as…competent.
    or calling himself an environmentalist.
    or not racist.
    or pro free markets.
    or 238 pounds…

  133. Frank O.

    geo,

    i have no doubt that any of those three dems I mentioned will be willing to call this spade a spade. This will be a referendum on Trump. He can’t throw spitballs without his own record and performance being thoroughly laid out for voters. He’s not an unknown politician anymore.
    They understand the new politics and I have no doubt they’ll be quite ready to say this emperor has no clothes.

  134. Unreason

    Trump’s “policies” are designed to inflate numbers long enough to get him re-elected.

    I find it tempting to ascribe his every move to unprincipled monomania. But he’s been singing the same nativist protectionist song for decades. His populist bone fides are mostly real.

    Elizabeth Warren is everything Trump is not: thoughtful, well spoken, super intelligent and full of meaningful policy ideas.

    Trump’s sadly full of meaningful policy ideas and some are similar to hers. His are a mix: subvert multilateral trade and military agreements and immigration policies on the one hand, and pursue standard GOP small govt, anti-tax, religious liberty policies on the other. EW and BS both support a similar sharp break from old multilateral trade policies: similarly populist, meaningful (important), “radical” (foundation altering), and same intent – protect US workers.

    I think Progs’ biggest challenge is to become less tone deaf: communicate with respect and affection for people who disagree with us on religious liberty, immigration, abortion, gun rights, social justice, and the environment. We want to attract Trump-skeptical swing voters who agree with us on some policies, but our pompous assumptions about people who disagree with us on other policies prevents that.

    Both Progs and Cons look for the worst overstatement by the other side to avoid serious engagement on the original issue and settle for reaffirming tribe membership. Trump does it on purpose to foster the resentments that build his power. Progs are just tone deaf – we don’t know we sound like smug a-holes to smart decent people who disagree with us. I’m not talking about any KBers. Many Con-leaning undecideds/moderates want an excuse to defect from Trump, but we Progs are too annoyingly self-righteous to identify with.

    It’s sad because we’ve forgotten that we actually like each other and it’s dangerous because we definitely need each other.

  135. Hubert

    One candidate openly wants to fuck his daughter, ran a scam university in his name that bilked people out of money with high pressure sales tactics, lies about ten times in public per day, pays off porn stars that he fucked while his wife had recently given birth, and on and on and on. But it’s a deal breaker because Liz Warren fudged her ethnicity once.

    If you run as a cunt and act like a cunt, it’s not a big deal. But if you run as a Puritan who will take down corporate greed and your career started with a pathetic lie, it’s gonna hurt. Especially if your opponent is going to call you Pocahantas for the entire campaign.

    Besides, wealth tax is a joke.

  136. JK47

    Trump has to hope the pin stays in the grenade and the economy doesn’t blow up in his face until after the election. If the economy tanks, or shows clear signs of recession, he’ll sink down into the high 30’s and then he’s fucked.

    If the pin stays in the grenade he maybe has the same chance to win he did last time, he could eke out a win by pulling the inside straight and winning every close swing state.

    He has had consistently crummy approval numbers even with a booming economy. Take that away and he’s got stugots.

  137. geo

    what i love most about this site – our conservative minded folks here are by and large fairly calm and composed, while many of those with a more liberal leaning are ummmmmmm – pretty feisty, to say the least…

    maybe that’s just cuz we’re on the losing team at the moment…

  138. Hubert

    The economy is actually in very good shape (even with an unsustainable balance sheet) and he’s successfully brow beaten Powell into making sure he has a Fed put if needed. He’s not up against any sort of ticking time bomb. It’s only going to get better once he takes his foot off of China.

  139. The Honorable Cock Jowles

    i had never heard this before…i like this quote…a good reminder to not forget about the people actually involved, and, to take into account not just where you want to go, but, where you currently are…

    In the current political climate, it’s a euphemistic way of saying, per Iron Mike, “Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth.” And since the only thing that Trump seems to be good at is mocking people in service of people who love watching powerful men mock people, that’s exactly what we should plan for.

  140. djphan

    If you run as a cunt and act like a cunt, it’s not a big deal. But if you run as a Puritan who will take down corporate greed and your career started with a pathetic lie, it’s gonna hurt.

    yo what?

  141. djphan

    I can’t wait for 2020. Put Warren, or Harris, or hell, Mayor Pete on a debate stage with the stable genius. I can’t wait to see them eat his lunch.

    i mean trump pretty much embarrassed himself in all three debates and you had the hired clap track whooping it up for him in the background and an army of zombies marching to the polls….

    those things used to mean something… not anymore…

  142. The Honorable Cock Jowles

    yo what?

    I think he means if you’re a consistent piece of shit, it won’t hurt you, because the people who voted for your shittiness will feel validated.

  143. djphan

    that makes sense since when you only live to meme dems to death you tend to make lots of compromises….

  144. Hubert

    It’s the same phenomenon that allows Howard Stern or Charles Barkley to get away with saying anything they want, while others get hung by their necks if we find a mildly offensive tweet from 2013. I don’t get it, but it’s a thing. You can get mad that it’s a thing, but it still is a thing.

    The man brushed off “grab em by the pussy”. You think there’s anything he can step in that will cost him an election? He’s not the automatic L y’all think he is. Someone’s going to need to run a good campaign against him.

    Warren, IMO, is the only sensible candidate in the field. She has some silly positions but they’re only there to appease the Bernie side of the party and they’ll never be realized. But she is standing on a land mine whether you think it’s fair or not.

  145. JK47

    Thing is though, this is going to be a base vs base election. Trying to win a presidential election by winning over the center is like trying to win with three yards and a cloud of dust in the NFL or by playing How’s It Goink in the NBA. There’s not a lot of voters in that bucket anymore to turn out.

    It’s base vs base now. The R base is all in on Trump, they’ll be enthusiastic. So the D base needs to match that. Hillary Clinton didn’t succeed in getting all of the parts of the base motivated, but I think Liz Warren could. The Democratic base doesn’t give a fuck about Pocahontas or whatever faux scandal the slime machine throws at her. If she turns out the base she wins because the D base is simply bigger than the R base.

    Can she get lots of turnout from Millennials, minorities and college educated whites, and do well in the suburbs where Dems cleaned up in 2018? I think she can. A motivated D base is hard to beat.

  146. Hubert

    Yield curve got worse today; all early market gains today wiped out.

    The yield curve is noise. The market is a lagging indicator. And it’s also up nearly 40% since he got elected.

  147. geo

    seeing how we’re all so dependent on a majority of our fellow citizens to see things the way many of us here would like them to, in order get the right leader elected – it’s made me think more and more about these individuals we’re dependent upon to “see the light”, which naturally got me thinking of george carlin’s “joke” about just how dumb most folks really are…

    been reading a bit more of carlin lately – came across this gem which made me smile:
    It’s the old American Double Standard, ya know: Say one thing, do somethin’ different. And of course this country is founded on the double standard, that’s our history! We were founded on a very basic double standard: This country was founded by slave owners who wanted to be free.

    never really thought about that before…didn’t realize ben was such a strong advocate earlier in his life…

  148. thenamestsam

    He’s also going to, once again, be getting done a massive favor by”neutral” media coverage that feels obligated to create an equivalency as a first principle. There’s going to, once again, be lots of “Campaigns Trade Barbs Over Scandals” headlines where the fact that what one candidate said is true and what the other said is false is relegated to the 12th graf if it even makes the story at all. And this is in the “liberal” media I’m talking about – the Fox News coverage for the same event; forget about it.

  149. djphan

    It’s the same phenomenon that allows Howard Stern or Charles Barkley to get away with saying anything they want,

    No it’s not the same phenomenon…. they say whatever they want because they paid by the word…. it’s very easy to tune that out… should you care what they have to say? really should anyone?

    the phenomenon we have with donald is the same phenomenon as we have with steve king… roy moore… duncan hunter… chris collins… this is not about their personality… and it’s not so much that he’s brushing any of this off…. because all the shit that normal ppl view as terrible… there’s a very large contingent of republicans who not only condone it… but love it and embrace it…. these moderate republicans who will privately say this shit is crazy… those guys are probably the minority…..

    so this has nothing to do with campaigns or cleverness or gotchas… or pocahontas this or that…. there’s a rather large contingent that doesn’t actually care about anything other than reading and posting anti-democrat memes all day….. i mean when trump leaves office you could run scott baio and he’ll get 40% too if he spouts the same garbage….

  150. swiftandabundant

    In the last election Democrats did the “they go low, we go high” strategy. Increasingly I’m wondering if it would work to just throw Trump’s strategies back in his face.

    Make fun of him and the way he talks. Refuse to shake his hand at the debate. Call him names like “shithole president” and literally make fun of his supporters for being stupid rednecks who are too dumb to know they’re being dupped. This whole air of civility thing…maybe its handicapping us? If they turn around and whine that we’re being disrespectful, literally laugh at them and say, seriously? He started this. We’re just throwing it back in your face.

    Ultimately, Trump and his followers are bullies. And most bullies are actually whimps deep down in side with huge insecurities. but they are dangerous because they make people afraid. Punch them in the mouth and point and laugh at them and they slink away. Maybe we need to do that? Is that a crazy strategy?

  151. geo

    Is that a crazy strategy?

    worked well back in the day for evander holyfield…well, up until the time he got his ear bit off…

  152. The Honorable Cock Jowles

    He’s also going to, once again, be getting done a massive favor by”neutral” media coverage that feels obligated to create an equivalency as a first principle.

    100%

  153. d-mar

    Any candidate except Hillary would have beaten Trump in 2016. The fake email scandal and Clinton fatigue caused enough independents to hold their noses and vote for the lesser of 2 evils (Trump, in their minds) and that put him over the top.

    Suburban, educated, upper middle class voters in states like Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin aren’t going to do the same thing again if the Democrats put forth a compelling candidate, IMO. I just don’t see him winning those states again in 2020.

  154. KnickfaninNJ

    I don’t know if it would work, but I’d like to see a Democrat run against Trump’s positions. Last time they just seemed to run against his personality. Look how that worked out for them.

  155. JK47

    The 2018 midterms were interesting because both sides had high turnout. Trump campaigned vigorously for a bunch of candidates and tried to whip up a frenzy with the CARAVAN!!! scare tactic.

    Republicans still got beat badly, especially in PA and MI. The suburbs in general were a bloodbath for them. Democrats were motivated. Millennials voted.

    That’s really the most central factor of 2020: can the Dems find a candidate that energizes their own base?

  156. swiftandabundant

    @ 173 – they ran against his personality but they did so with kid gloves on. I think the gloves need to come off this time, at least strategically at key moments. I don’t know what that would look like or what would be too far. But I almost think making fun of him might work. Attacking his character doesn’t seem to work but attacking his intelligence for things like wanting to buy greenland, nuking a hurricane, covfefe…etc..really drive home how unhinged he is.

    I do agree though that so much of what happened in 2016 was bc of Clinton fatigue and the fact that many people viewed them as two evils and one was lesser in their mind played into him winning. Remember him saying “its all rigged?” That really played into the whole notion that Clinton was basically coronated by the DNC, which was kind of true because no one dared run against her except Bernie. Its why I like that so many are running for hte nomination this time on the Dem side.

  157. Grocer

    Last time they just seemed to run against his personality. Look how that worked out for them.

    I dunno. They seemed to take for granted that his personality would work against him and ran on issues. But those issues got zero traction in the media which was all ‘Trump does another outrageous thing’ coupled with ‘Emails! Hearings! Foundation!’ Policy stances and stump speeches on policy got no traction. What HC’s campaign was doing got ignored.

    The problem this time will be the same as last time: how do you prevent Trump from sucking up all the air on the ratings dependent media so you can get across your actual policy and issue positions? How do you do that without those positions being routinely mischaracterized in derogatory ways? At a basic level I think it’ll come down to whether or not he’s so hated that whoever defeats him despite the lies and lack of space. The midterms are encouraging but local pols can get penetration that’s much harder for national cpaigns to achieve. The only real hope is for whoever has the most effective ground game. Which dem is best set up to turn out Obama style, softsell local campaigners? That person will be our best bet. I don’t think it’s Bernie, it’s definitely not Biden. I don’t know that Warren or Harris have the chops. It might be Booker, he’s known for being good at that, but he’s not doing all that well.

  158. GianaDani

    View Amazon fire situation from Conservative perspective: Trump ignites & unites other G7 liberal nations against Brazil & threatens to boycott their meat exports & strong tariffs, if deuchebag president doesn’t deploy army and resources to combat fire; Brazil president throughs a hissy fit at Macron & sends 40,000 troops to the Amazon. Trump tweets that he’s a good president and loves Brazil. Classic chicken & egg game but if this was Obama, he would have send US troops to Amazon and billions of our tax money to put out the fires. Media would have crowned him as a great world leader who saved the planet. Trump gets zero credit for solving the problem without spending a nickel.

    Also, FYI – most conservatives do not approve of his uncivil, childish, arrogant petty, nonsense type behavior. But have learned to pull past that.

  159. Grocer

    Also I wished we lived in a world where that video would kill Boogie’s career instead of his injuries doing the same.

  160. Grocer

    What’s so strange about the troll’s Amazon post is that it was the EU that played ‘chicken’ (& egg? WTF?) with Bolsonaro and got him to at least pretend to do something, while Trump just offered aid plus troops and said how great he was. Sun rises in the East, GianaDani credits Trump.

  161. TheClashFan

    if this was Obama, he would have send US troops to Amazon and billions of our tax money to put out the fires

    JK47, batter up!

    Grocer, are you talking about the cellphone recording of (allegedly him) threatening to kill his ex-GF?

    Many moons ago, my future wife’s ex-BF left a note on my car on with a similar sentiment. Not fun stuff.

  162. TheClashFan

    @179

    played ‘chicken’ (& egg? WTF?)

    I laughed, too. I love it when people totally botch metaphors/analogies.

  163. JK47

    The only thing more pathetic than being stupid as fuck is pretending you’re even stupider than you actually are to get attention from people who hate you

  164. KnickfaninNJ

    @173 I don’t agree just taking the gloves off would do it. Look at what GianaDani just said

    most conservatives do not approve of his uncivil, childish, arrogant petty, nonsense type behavior but have learned to pull past that

    Many Trump supporters feel that way and pointing out Trumps warts won’t change the way they feel. You have to point out how his actions have been bad and will be bad. After all, he is destroying the economy, he wants to destroy the world with global warming, and he wants poor people to get sick and die, or at least all his actions are consistent with that desire.

  165. bobneptune

    i have no doubt that any of those three dems I mentioned will be willing to call this spade a spade. This will be a referendum on Trump.

    I’m sure the President is quite happy to run on his record:

    Historic low unemployment
    Historic low minority unemployment
    Isis crushed at low cost w/o troops being dispatched everywhere.
    No “Arab Spring” escapade.
    Ruskies aren’t annexing former republics every third Tuesday
    He’s attempted to enforce US Code on the border
    He’s attempted to finally address “China” with the only leverage we have.

    That’s why you woke folk have you panties in a Gordian Knot…. you realize you have an up hill battle ahead of you

  166. JK47

    Trump’s polling is super stable and it doesn’t change no matter what happens, good or bad. He toddles along at that same 41-42 percent like clockwork.

    You’re not going to win over ANY of that 41-42 percent that supports him. So he has a high floor. The only way that floor drops is if a clear recession happens, then he’d maybe lose a few percentage points worth of support which would probably be fatal in terms of his re-election.

    But he also has a low ceiling. Who is he going to win over to add to that 41-42 percent? He completely alienates everybody that isn’t part of his Fox News MAGA chud base. It’s not possible for him to win the general election with a comfortable margin. He might win a squeaker by being as divisive and toxic as possible, and that’s what he’s going to try to do. But outside of the tribe nobody likes him much, and he doesn’t even attempt to win over anybody who isn’t already fully on board.

  167. KnickfaninNJ

    He’s attempted to enforce US Code on the border
    He’s attempted to finally address “China” with the only leverage we have.

    Of all the “successes” you mention, these are the ones that are actually popular. But he is completely incompetently addressing these issues. That is a drawback. The economy is good by conventional GDP standards, but medical and college costs are rising faster than incomes and people are still insecure about their futures since the quality of the gig economy jobs is often not good. The rest of the ”successes” are probably not even noticed by the general public. So I don’t think they are a selling point for Trump. I don’t like Sanders or Warren, but they are actually focused on the top two issues more than many other candidates, which I think helps account for their relative popularity.

  168. Grocer

    Grocer, are you talking about the cellphone recording of (allegedly him) threatening to kill his ex-GF?

    That’s the one.

    I’m sure the President is quite happy to run on his record:

    It’s a list of things for which he generally gets (and deserves) no credit cause they’re just continued trends from Obama, coupled with some stuff that is truly horrific (he’s gonna run on illegally caging children without documenting who their parents were and it’s gonna go so badly) and with stuff that is just dumb as hell (if you really think badly thought out tariffs that hurt US companies more than China (especially long term) while they simultaneously undermine the order we’ve profitted off of for decades, if you think that was our only option you know absolutely nothing about international relations or economics). Frankly I expected better from you.

  169. bobneptune

    It’s a list of things for which he generally gets (and deserves) no credit cause they’re just continued trends from Obama,

    You are entitled to your own opinion, but not your own facts.

    Growth and unemployment are demonstrably better the last 2.5 years than the previous 8, or even the last year of O! Especially minority stats….

  170. Mehrab

    As an Iranian I really want to know more about warren’s view on Iran. you probbly know how it is important for us. I know she stated that Iran is a significant threat to US, and she was against Trump leaving JCPOA, but not much more.

    My concern about her dealing with Iran is, her going back to Obama administration’s route. you may be surprised by this, but you read it right. I’m against this government of ours, and I think they should be under constant pressure and be controlled. Obama did put pressure on Iran and made them agree with the nuclear deal. but what happened next? he suddenly gave them freedom to do anything they want in the middle east. was the problem with Iran, just on nukes or theire role in meaddle east too? wasn’t the purpose of Obama policies on Iran to make it a norml government? but why after JCPOA, they suddenly let them do anything they want in Syria, Iraq and yemen? yes, the biggest problem I have with Iran’s government is what they are doing in Syria, and then other countries of middle east. we have many problems in Iran too, but the amount of damage and crime they are doing in the middle east is so big that I think our own problems are nothing compared to them.

    now my question is: is Warren going to follow Obama’s policy and let Iran (and Russia) do whatever they want? is she going back to JCPOA and canceling the sanctions? is she going to show them the green light just to look anti war, but in reality letting them literally kill more people?

    And yes, I know Trump’s policies weren’t that much successful about Iran. but Iran under this pressure, works more normal and peaceful than vice versa.

  171. geo

    @184…that’s awesome donnie…good for her…

    went to lunch the other day with ma rocking a ‘women for warren’ t-shirt…

    as always – we’re really gonna need the ladies to come through and help save the day on this one…

  172. bobneptune

    My concern about her dealing with Iran is, her going back to Obama administration’s route. you may be surprised by this, but you read it right.

    Be careful what you say as your communications may be monitored. One of the most cowardly moments in recent American history was Obama not even giving moral support to the brave people of Iran who were being slaughtered while protesting the fixed election of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in 2009.

    Iran is a great and ancient society which is greatly admired in America. My/our hearts go out to secular people yearning for freedom everywhere.

  173. bobneptune

    Trump’s polling is super stable and it doesn’t change no matter what happens, good or bad. He toddles along at that same 41-42 percent like clockwork.

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_trump_job_approval-6179.html

    Again you are entitled to your own opinion, but not your own facts. Trump’s approval over the last 15 or so months is about 1.5-2.0% higher than you state. He was as high as 45% in July and sits at 43.2% today.

    The larger point being, he won the presidency comfortably with 46.1% of the popular vote. He won rather easily in the EC by 77 votes. Running up huge totals in NY and Calli doesn’t win elections… It might make you feel good and self righteous. but it doesn’t win. Winning states does and Trump won 30 to Clinton’s 20.

  174. Bo Nateman

    There is a school of thought that believes that the next election will be won or lost through the so-called ” swing states” and at this time those states that went for Trump vs.HRG are trending against him:

    According to Morning Consult’s tracking poll, Trump’s approval rating in vital swing states has declined significantly since he took office. Take Wisconsin: His approval rating in January 2017 was 47 percent, and his disapproval rating was 41, for a net plus of six percentage points. Now his approval has fallen to 41 while his disapproval has climbed to 55, for a net minus of 14.

    The bases seem pretty intractable and so it appears the election will be decided by these and a few more swing states.

  175. thenoblefacehumper

    One of the most cowardly moments in recent American history was Obama not even giving moral support to the brave people of Iran who were being slaughtered while protesting the fixed election of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in 2009.

    This was one of the more hilarious conservative outrages to me, just because it showed how incapable cons are of thinking about things for longer than a few seconds.

    Gee, maybe with every Iranian hardliner bloviating about how the protests were the work of the US and CIA and blah blah blah, Obama thought it wouldn’t be a great look to make himself the face of an Iranian protest movement? Nah, he just sympathizes with Khamenei.

  176. djphan

    mr. bobneptune….

    can u point to anything thats trump actually done? i know wbout unemployment.. but what did he do?

  177. Mehrab

    Be careful what you say as your communications may be monitored. One of the most cowardly moments in recent American history was Obama not even giving moral support to the brave people of Iran who were being slaughtered while protesting the fixed election of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in 2009.

    @bobneptune
    right. and even then I could understand the logic. he has already began secret negotiations with Iran an he was looking for the nuclear deal and more. but what he has done after the deal (or not doing anything) is totally nonsense.

    Gee, maybe with every Iranian hardliner bloviating about how the protests were the work of the US and CIA and blah blah blah, Obama thought it wouldn’t be a great look to make himself the face of an Iranian protest movement? Nah, he just sympathizes with Khamenei.

    @thenoblefacehumper
    no he did’t want to sympathize with Khamenei, nor he was concern about being the face of protesters. his main concern was the direct negotiations, and as I said I could understand the logic then. but if you think the real reason was just his fear of being the face of the movement, then I should say it just shows how little Obama administration knew about the hardliners in Iran, because no matter how they react to these kind of causes in Iran, hardliners would accuse them of having hands in the protests, as they actualy did in 2009.

  178. Grocer

    Growth and unemployment are demonstrably better the last 2.5 years than the previous 8, or even the last year of O! Especially minority stats….

    For which he gets rightly gets little to no credit, having inherited a booming economy from Obama.

    I know Trump’s policies weren’t that much successful about Iran. but Iran under this pressure, works more normal and peaceful than vice versa.

    It’s there in your post: Obama got concessions. Trump has lost even that, while Iran acts under less constraints than ever. Unless you think capturing oil tankers in the straight is an improvement over just hassling them. It’s even worse, since Trump has also empowered the Sauds who are even more repressive than the Iranians.

    I love that we’ve got pro-trump interventionists here, and up thread there are pro-trump non-interventionists, and they are both using the same events.

    Iran is a great and ancient society which is greatly admired in America. My/our hearts go out to secular people yearning for freedom everywhere.

    Which is why we overthrew the first democratic Iranian government and reinstalled the deeply unpopular Shah, leading to the rise of the current regime. We admire their society and yearning for freedom.

  179. Grocer

    @198

    To clarify, are you saying you wished the US had invaded Iran during the Arab spring? I’m unclear what the complaint is because there’s no path of action beyond inaction that seems like it would have positive consequences.

  180. thenamestsam

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_trump_job_approval-6179.html

    Again you are entitled to your own opinion, but not your own facts. Trump’s approval over the last 15 or so months is about 1.5-2.0% higher than you state. He was as high as 45% in July and sits at 43.2% today.

    Since you care deeply about facts I’ll just point out that a simple average is a pretty mediocre methodology given that polls vary significantly in quality, and in particular, some of the polls with significant and consistent conservative lean have been repeatedly shown to be among the worst when it comes time for people to actually vote. The 538 methodology is (in my opinion of course) considerably better and they shown Trump in exactly the range you’re quibbling about. Just a little fyi since you care about facts.

  181. JK47

    Trump’s approval over the last 15 or so months is about 1.5-2.0% higher than you state. He was as high as 45% in July and sits at 43.2% today.

    I’m using FiveThirtyEight as my metric, which is better than the RCP model because it adjusts polls for partisan lean. There are at least two pollsters (Zogby and Rasmussen) that have huge Republican leans, so you have to adjust for those the way you adjust for hitters at Coors Field.

    FiveThirtyEight has him at 41.3. But go ahead and cherry pick the more favorable number, mister “you don’t get to choose your own facts.”

  182. bobneptune

    This was one of the more hilarious conservative outrages to me, just because it showed how incapable cons are of thinking about things for longer than a few seconds.

    Gee, maybe with every Iranian hardliner bloviating about how the protests were the work of the US and CIA and blah blah blah, Obama thought it wouldn’t be a great look to make himself the face of an Iranian protest movement? Nah, he just sympathizes with Khamenei.

    Well…. it appears an actual Iranian (Mehrab) disagrees with your position.

    Obama’s stated goal was to rework the US because he saw it as a terribly flawed place. His wife echoed the same precise sentiment in 2008 when she said commenting on Barak running for president, “For the first time in my adult life, I am really proud of my country because it feels like hope is finally making a comeback,”

    And vis a vis Iran he certainly did rework policy, infusing the Mullah’s with 29 billion in assets and assorted planeloads of cash, and removing sanctions so they could finance their “adventurism” in Syria, Lebanon, Iraq, et al.

    With his 4 dimensional chess/America is always wrong brand of foreign policy he left a huge mess with the “Arab Spring” in tatters, Libya destabilized, ” JV Team” reeking havoc all over the Middle East and Iran with pockets full of cash and assets to spread their particular insidious form of hate everywhere. Well played BO!

  183. GianaDani

    Do Bush and Cheney bear any responsibility for the mess in the Midde East or nah

    Yes, of course they do. Bush was a nitwit and a moron. Its no surprise he made a ton of mistakes that cost us trillions and thousands of soldiers paid the ultimate price. He was a terrible president and possibly one of the worst. But knocking someone else down does not make your guy taller. This is where you go wrong buddy.

  184. bobneptune

    FiveThirtyEight has him at 41.3.

    538 can use whatever metric they please but note Silver “weights” the polls, “adjusts” the polls and “accounts for uncertainty” (all their own words)

    RCP averages many raw polls on a running basis to give an enormous sample size. RCP’s prediction of the 2016 election popular vote was more accurate than 538’s

  185. Name is Bron - James Bron

    You are entitled to your own opinion, but not your own facts. Growth and unemployment are demonstrably better the last 2.5 years than the previous 8, or even the last year of O! Especially minority stats…

    Fair but you are not entitled to partial facts. Trump juiced the economy with huge tax cuts so you’d expect those results. But the cost is we’re adding 1 trillion/yr of debt. Think about this: we’re adding a huge amount of debt when the economy is doing well. That’s a terrible situation for long-term health. Debt’s gonna get even worse if GDP slows or we go into a recession. Have R’s cut spending? Nope. BTW Where is the Tea Party? Bunch of frauds. And speaking of frauds, Trump gave economist Laffer the Presidential Medal of Freedom. I guess the 3rd time’s the charm because Reagan, W, and now Trump have all cut taxes and debt has ballooned when Laffer argued it wouldn’t. But wait…Clinton raises taxes and economy booms and we have an annual surplus.

    So Neptune, are you now gonna argue that this is a “positive” economic record? Are you really so sure economy wouldn’t have gotten to 2.5% had we done nothing? The unemployment was still declining when Obama left office so more and more people would have been working and spending had we done nothing. Trump’s taking us on the same path which will lead to the same destination as all of his businesses: bankruptcy. But hey, maybe China will bail us out? But Wharton graduate Donald has got a solution according to his advisors: Just print money.

  186. bobneptune

    Do Bush and Cheney bear any responsibility for the mess in the Midde East or nah

    “When the facts are on your side, pound the facts…. when the law is on your side …. pound the law… when neither are on your side…. pound the table!”

  187. JK47

    RCP averages many raw polls on a running basis to give an enormous sample size.

    Ok, you use non-park adjusted batting average, I’ll use wRC+ thanks

  188. Name is Bron - James Bron

    He’s also going to, once again, be getting done a massive favor by”neutral” media coverage that feels obligated to create an equivalency as a first principle.

    I don’t think this will repeat itself. In fact, I think it will be the opposite. The media let equivalency prevail at the time because they didn’t think Trump could ever win.

  189. Stratomatic: Sometimes referred to as Satan

    Fair but you are not entitled to partial facts. Trump juiced the economy with huge tax cuts so you’d expect those results. But the cost is we’re adding 1 trillion/yr of debt. Think about this: we’re adding a huge amount of debt when the economy is doing well. That’s a terrible situation for long-term health. Debt’s gonna get even worse if GDP slows or we go into a recession. Have R’s cut spending?

    I agree with this 1000%.

    If you are a long term thinker, imo the idea is to encourage investment – not consumption. Politicians, their hired gun economists, and the media are more worried about short term GDP growth and therefore focus on consumption.

    IMO, tax cuts make sense when people/corporations are not making investments because the after tax rate of return doesn’t compensate them for the risks given other alternatives. Also, if you cut taxes and cut spending (revenue neutral) it can make sense because governments primarily “consume” and at least some of that tax cut money will be invested.

    Trump’s tax cuts are probably prompting a few marginal companies to invest in the US instead of elsewhere (the good news), but since he did not cut government spending (consumption) we are just piling on debt to fund both the extra investment and consumption that’s occurring and creating extra GDP growth in the short term. Some of that debt is being funded via our trade deficits with foreigners using dollars to buy US assets.

    A very smart man once said, “Give me a trillion dollars and can show the country a good time for awhile also”.

  190. JK47

    It’s just the darndest thing because I seem to remember that back in the early aughts people like me were saying the Iraq War was a fucking horrible idea and that Bush was lying through his teeth so him and his PNAC buddies could go and get dat sweet sweet oil money while people like neptune here were turning up the Lee Greenwood jams and buying lots of American flag gear and telling the rest of us we were shitty patriots.

    They’re not gonna say “hey you know what, you guys were right, that whole Iraq War thing was a bad idea” because why do that when you can simply pull the “Thanks Obama” card?

  191. Hubert

    After all, he is destroying the economy

    Everyone who thinks the economy is bad or on the verge of exploding is wishcasting more than the Frankophiles who think he’d be an all star if only he were coached by Pop or Kerr.

    I know you want it to be in a downward spiral bc you hate Trump above almost all else, but a spade is a spade.

  192. Ingmarrrr

    paid the ultimate price

    This is one ugly phrase. They died in a fucked up, nasty war. It is not measured in dollars or any other coin.

  193. bobneptune

    Ok, you use non-park adjusted batting average, I’ll use wRC+ thanks

    If we wre talking baseball I might be interested.

    However whatever methodology Silver used, RCP’s average outperformed Silver in 2016.

    Also pretty LOL tastic is one of the big “house polls” Silver “adjusted” for (Rasmussen) binked the margin of Clinton’s victory in the popular vote better than any other poll! (within 0.4% of the final result)

    http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2016/rasmussen_reports_calls_it_right

  194. bobneptune

    It’s just the darndest thing because I seem to remember that back in the early aughts people like me were saying the Iraq War was a fucking horrible idea and that Bush was lying through his teeth so him and his PNAC buddies could go and get dat sweet sweet oil money

    Was Colin Powell “lying through his teeth” or just incorrect of his assessment of the intelligence?

    And how much of that cheap Iraq oil did we get beyond what Iraq previously selling us on the open market?

    And were you screaming bloody murder when BO picked Joe Biden and Hilary Clinton to be his highest foreign policy advisers??? Probably not ehhhh….. Didn’t they vote for the Iraq War????

  195. Mehrab

    @198
    To clarify, are you saying you wished the US had invaded Iran during the Arab spring? I’m unclear what the complaint is because there’s no path of action beyond inaction that seems like it would have positive consequences.

    @200
    Not at all. where did that come from? I said he did nothing to prevent Iran’s regime invading Syria. and let them have the upper hand there along with Russia. and what was the result? you know…
    And Obama did the same thing in Iraq too, letting Iran to be the most powerful side there.

  196. swiftandabundant

    Hubert, pretty much every economist is saying a recession is going to happen in the next year. Are they all just Trump hating fake news media people?

    I actually hate that people want the economy to crash before the election. Recessions and downturns and inevitable but the problem is that this last good run on the economy didn’t really benefit working people or young people at all, just the uber wealthy. Wages only just started to rise in the last year after a 10 year rebound and now we’re all about to get fucked over again. Its going to be bad.

  197. djphan

    economists… analysts… frequently get recession calls wrong…. those things are really hard to predict…. and even when polled most of them say there’s a 1 in 3 chance… which is high but it’s not like its guaranteed…..

    that’s not to say it won’t happen as some may predict but this is one thing that experts will get wrong more often than not….

  198. GianaDani

    Going after Trump using Stormy or that tool called Mueller is fair game as other side did the same with birth certificate, bengazi, etc..all big nothing burgers…BUT putting out negative sentiment to jump start a recession in order to win politically is pure evil. The number of people lives ruined by a typical recession is in the millions, i.e. job losses and small business bankruptcies cause divorces, suicides, drug abuse etc… both parties are pretty much bought and paid for, – so it matters very little to our daily lives who sits in the white house and plays golf half the year..but recessions really do matter.

  199. Grocer

    @223

    Copy that, I thought you were complaining about Obama not providing support to Iranian protesters. I wasn’t sure what you were asking for. I’m still not sure tbh, since Russia was already in Syria, being a close ally of the Assad regime, and Iran was there mostly supporting anti-ISIS fighters.

    Syria was and is a horrific situation, but I have no idea how the US could have actually improved the situation. Trump’s solution appears to be whatever catches his eye at the moment, it’s not really achieved anything either. Again, not entirely his fault on this one, there are no good options.

    On Iraq, again, I’m confused. Bush signed an agreement with their first democratically elected government to get out since we we’re pretty universally hated. What was Obama supposed to do?

  200. KnickfaninNJ

    Exactly what JK 47 said. And you may say a recession isn’t here yet, which is true; but parts of the economy are already worse because of Trump ‘s actions and he is promising more to come. Companies that manufacture things in China to sell there, like Apple and GM are worse often, Midwestern farmers are worse off; universities that get foreign students who pay full freight are worse off because the US is less appealing for the students and visas are harder to get and more uncertain to keep. The housing market has slowed down even though mortgage rates are low. The economy can only take so many hits before it tips into recession and leading indicators are all saying this is the time.

  201. Grocer

    I missed the news that Ron Baker signed with CSKA Moscow! Rumors suggest that Gulianni facilitated the signing.

  202. geo

    morality matters…particularly when it comes to leadership…

    no doubt foul shit occurred overseas and at home during obama’s (and his staff’s) terms – can’t imagine any president leaves with a clean sheet…there’s a lot of places in the world that no matter what statement, policy, action is taken someone(s) will face horrible consequences…

    all that aside, and with a heavy distrust of politicians in general – donald is telling you exactly who he is all the time…people can be very deceptive – what appears to be good on the outside, can in fact be rotten at the core…

    that’s just not the case with him…his high level of arrogance, lack of intelligence and education makes deception incredibly difficult for him…

    i find it really tough though to imagine anyone, anyone at all, listening to this particular individual and:
    a). believing he has any interest in public service, other than to serve his own ends
    b). would ever imagine him being the smartest person in the room (even a room where he’s all alone)
    c). would trust him to make a wise and moral choice

    i get the whole: my side needs to win at any cost, or, i have such an extreme hate for any democratic candidate that even if satan himself was representing the party – i’d still vote for him…

    sadly i got a buddy like that…i don’t get it…actually two of my close friends (one puerto rican, the other nicaraguan) support him and hated obama (not so strangely those two seem to go together a bunch, hmmmm, wonder what’s up with that)…generally i don’t talk politics much with people to begin with, but, yeah – it confuses the fuck out of me…

    i just don’t see how they don’t get that this dude is just not really on their side, at all…hate motivates i guess…

  203. d-mar

    Puerto Rico is about to get hit with it’s second devastating hurricane in 2 years, and our Commander in Cheif is busy tweeting nasty things about the mayor of San Juan.

    That really tells you all you need to know about this abomination of a president.

  204. JK47

    Making sure the dark skinned know their place is the central defining element of MAGA, so dialing up some Twitter beef while Puerto Rico is about to experience terrible suffering is right on brand.

    The redhats love this stuff.

  205. Nick C.

    It’s too late for this season but hopefully the new government will have Puerto Rico better prepared, to the extent that one can be, for hurricanes than the last one. He is a child who will be gone in 15 or 63 months. The hurricanes will still be around.

  206. Hubert

    Hubert, pretty much every economist is saying a recession is going to happen in the next year.

    Statements like this make me think you don’t even know what an economist is.

    Are they all just Trump hating fake news media people?

    No, but they’re trying to sell you something and are desperate for attention. You should not be getting your economic news from television or the internet. If you are, just assume you’re wrong and don’t comment on it.

    The hacks you’re listening to are saying there is going to be a recession for one of two reasons:

    1. They want attention (on TV, twitter, whatever).
    2. They want to sell you their product that is going to save you from losing money when the recession that they’ve scared you about comes.

  207. Hubert

    There is one thing and one thing only that we can currently see that can cause a recession:

    If Trump takes the trade war way too far.

    That’s not out of the question. He’s insane. But the analogy of the economy being a grenade with a pin in it is absurd. It’s more an oak tree that Trump is taking axe swings at. Him and his people are perfectly capable of ruining the economy, I don’t doubt. Larry Kudlow is a fucking idiot. But there is literally no data that indicates the economy is in danger of a recession without those guys pushing tariffs too far.

  208. JK47

    This is a pretty long period of expansion, and that is not going to last forever. The White House itself seems to be pretty spooked, as you can tell by their preemptive scapegoating.

  209. Bruno Almeida

    The good thing about all this discussion is that it makes me less terrified about what’s happening in Brazil, seeing as the same stupid mechanisms to divert blame from Bolsonaro are at place in the US too. I guess were not the only place where people actively support fascist idiots while still claiming neutrality in 2019.

  210. Hubert

    Quick crib sheet:

    the trade war is causing economic pain. It’s a bad thing. If Trump really amps it up from this point, he could cause a recession. He is capable of destroying the economy. That’s the fear. That’s real.

    But anyone who says any actual economic signs indicate a recession is a hack. This is self inflicted pain. He thinks its medicine that we need to take to correct the imbalance with China. It’s hard to trust him to know when to back off. So things are definitely a little precarious. But literally no one is looking at growth, income, employment, sales, (i.e. all the indicators that matter) and thinking “yeah, this look like a recession.”

    The only problem with the economy is the sanity of the man with tariff power.

  211. geo

    aren’t recessions though an inevitable part of a country’s economic cycle…like at least one or two years every decade…

    or, are you just saying it’s one of those: “even a broke clock is right twice a day” kind of things…meaning the indicators may not all be there to support that belief, but it is coming sooner or later…

    cuz, to be honest, just looking at dates (without really knowing the criteria to classify a period as a “recession”) – sure looks like we’re due…

  212. Hubert

    I’m saying a few things, geo.

    One is that there’s a lot of hacks who go on tv or write articles claiming the recession is on the way. If you’re right, you’re “the guy who predicted the recession”. If you’re wrong, no one remembers. So you’ll always have people screaming that a recession is coming.

    In this particular case, a recession could come, because no one knows what Trump is willing to do. If he continues to escalate this trade war, a recession is likely. So now you have even more people than normal calling for a recession. Predicting a recession right now is basically predicting Trump will screw this up. It’s not a bad bet.

    The other thing I’m saying is that the state of the economy without all this self-inflicted pain is actually quite strong (although Bron’s point is valid, and I alluded to it in my first post; but debt doesn’t cause recessions until you can’t issue more, and we’re nowhere near that point). It’s been depicted here as a ticking time bomb that Trump needs to wait out. It’s actually the opposite. I referred to it as an oak tree that he’s swinging an axe at, but it’s also like a hose that he’s kinking. If he stops kinking it at the right time, the hose will blow.

    There’s also a ton of misinformation that’s out there either to scare you or because it’s partisan. The inverted yield curve, for instance, is very misunderstood. And every time the market “tanks”, people are focusing too much on the raw number and not the percentage. An 800 point move was a big deal when the market was at 8,000. It’s not that important when it’s at 25,000. And that doesn’t even get into the fact that the percentage of money invested that’s in market stocks is probably the lowest in my life bc of private equity and derivatives.

    All of this is to say, if you’re looking at the 2020 election, the economy is much more likely to be a tailwind than a headwind.

  213. thenoblefacehumper

    Well…. it appears an actual Iranian (Mehrab) disagrees with your position.

    Well…it appears most “actual Iranians” agree with my position. Even using a contemporary measure, AKA after Trump sabotaged it and proved every Iranian hardliner right about America’s trustworthiness, a majority of Iranians still support it.

    Obama’s stated goal was to rework the US because he saw it as a terribly flawed place. His wife echoed the same precise sentiment in 2008 when she said commenting on Barak running for president, “For the first time in my adult life, I am really proud of my country because it feels like hope is finally making a comeback,”

    When Obama was inaugurated in 2009, he was absolutely correct that the US’ reputation was in tatters around the world. I don’t think anyone on Earth even continues to deny that Bush and Cheney’s foreign policy was, well, terribly flawed (to put it lightly). So yeah, he tried to rectify that and was mostly successful.

    And vis a vis Iran he certainly did rework policy, infusing the Mullah’s with 29 billion in assets and assorted planeloads of cash, and removing sanctions so they could finance their “adventurism” in Syria, Lebanon, Iraq, et al.!

    Wow, please share this empirical evidence you have indicating that Iranian malfeasance in the region significantly increased after the deal. That’s huge news! Also, please make the case that Iranian influence in the region is markedly worse than Saudi influence, which your boy Trump not only welcomes, but actively…

  214. geo

    okay then…seeing how every once in a while we’ll veer off in to some interesting musical forays…so, at the moment my internet connection at work isn’t working so great – so, no you tube or sirius to get my tunes fix…needed to dig in to my own library for a moment…

    came across this – i double dare anyone to say they ever heard this song before – and, after hearing it, not thinking it’s the most wonderful, feel good tune in the world…

    as an extra added bonus – it answers the grand question of: what does it take to live a life of happiness?

  215. geo

    I’m saying a few things.

    i think i understand hubert…one of the better things i ever learned in high school was from an english teacher whom preached to think critically…

    so, whatever particular indicators may be used for assessing the probability for a economic situation – the data can be used to serve someone’s agenda…

    i liked this article which basically states it’s a mixed of indications…

    given the pretty regular historical frequency of these domestic economic “events” – sure does seem though like time ain’t on our side right now…

  216. vincoug

    Jordan 3s are being released in a Knicks colorway but…

    Finally, the model is topped off with “04.08.88” listed behind the tongue to reference the “The Virus Game,” in which Michael Jordan played with a stomach virus and scored 47 points to lead the Chicago Bulls to victory against the Knicks.

    I like them but there’s not a chance in hell I would ever wear them.

  217. Bruno Almeida

    @248

    But the fact that the data can be used to serve someone’s agenda does not and should not mean that it is always, or specifically in this case, serving someone’s agenda, and agendas are also not all made equal. Unless you’re a “neutral” person, which does not exist, there are some agendas that are better than others.

    I don’t give a fuck about France and their long history of slaughter and colonialism, but yes, I’m obviously glad Macron is actively going against Bolsonaro, for example. It is to serve France’s and other European countries “agenda”, obviously, but it’s a much better agenda than the one conducted by our piece of shit president. If you don’t choose a side you’ll always automatically side with the people who are already in power. It’s very simple.

  218. geo

    If you don’t choose a side you’ll always automatically side with the people who are already in power. It’s very simple.

    yeah, i’m a habitual sideline sitter for sure…finally watched an old movie the other day that i’ve been being meaning to catch for a long time: boondock saints…had always heard really good things about it, and, they were true…

    a quote within the movie really struck a chord with me and made me think about that kind of neutral approach to things:
    Now, we must all fear evil men, but there is another kind of evil, which we must fear most, and that is, the indifference of good men.

  219. geo

    he could be quiz kid donnie smith when it comes to the economy…that still don’t make him a moral man and a good leader…

  220. The Honorable Cock Jowles

    I don’t even know why I bothered to start to write a response to that ignorant bullshit you just posted, bobneptune.

    But then again, I and my family were not libeled as traitors, crooks, deviants, and imbeciles, and put in legal jeopardy for 22 months as the media and ex-Obama officials ginned up hoax after hoax. If I had been, perhaps I might have stooped to express outrage on Twitter.

    https://www.justice.gov/file/1115596/download

    k

  221. JK47

    Yeah I can’t believe there’s some asshole hounding Trump and claiming he’s not a US citizen

  222. Grocer

    The hacks you’re listening to are saying there is going to be a recession for one of two reasons:

    I know a few finance folks of various flavors down on wall street and they’ve all been quietly saying they expect a recession by the end of first quarter next year. They started saying it in the spring. Now, maybe they’re talking out of their ass but they’d very much rather there not be one, they’re mostly conservatives, they aren’t in any public facing roles where attention is a factor, and they aren’t trying to sell me anything. Plus the bond market indicates one is coming (apparently, the hell do I know), the most recent job numbers got revised downwards by 500k, and there’s some troubling trends in some investment corners. And if course household wealth hasn’t recovered from the last time. Maybe all it’s like you say and it’s wildly off-base but it’s not like there aren’t real concerns beyond the trade war shenanigans.

  223. JK47

    Maybe the “pin in the grenade” language I used is what’s bothering Hubert, and I can see why. It’s probably not a pin/grenade situation like the 2008 crash. But there do seem to be lots of indicators that we’re at high risk for a recession. Which doesn’t make it a certainty, for sure. Sooner or later there’s one coming, this has been a very long period of expansion.

  224. Nick C.

    I must be desperate for some rootable basketball. I was watching Uncle Drew for the first time and found myself cheering the Rucker final.

  225. Hubert

    I know a few finance folks of various flavors down on wall street and they’ve all been quietly saying they expect a recession by the end of first quarter next year.

    There are always bears on Wall Street

    Plus the bond market indicates one is coming

    False.

    the most recent job numbers got revised downwards by 500k

    Meaningless.

    there’s some troubling trends in some investment corners

    That’s been true every day I’ve been alive.

  226. Grocer

    I mean, okay, but you said there were no indications and that’s false. Also the bond market is showing bad signs, I dunno what you’re talking about. It’s a little weird you think jobs numbers don’t matter as well but you know. You do you. I hope you don’t get caught out. I hope it doesn’t happen. We’re definitely not prepared for it as a country. Dems certainly don’t need it to beat Trump.

  227. Hubert

    Look, I may be wrong about 80% of the shit I talk here, but this is my area. I’m not saying I know I’m right. But I do know who are the signals and what is the noise, and y’all are quoting the noise.

    On the inverted yield curve, for instance, all recessions have been preceded by an inverted yield curve but not all inverted yield curves have preceded a recession. A yield curve is just a snapshot of bond traders’ appetite for risk. I was a bond trader once. Sometimes we’re right, sometimes we have no idea what we’re doing.

    Prior to 2008, for instance, rates were nearly 6% and when signs of the subprime crisis arose, bond traders rightly guessed that we better lock in these rates before the fed starts cutting. That’s why the curve inverted. That’s a signal. I went heavy on 30 year bonds in 2007 and when rates plummeted I did well enough to not have to be a bond trader anymore. Lucky bet.

    We’ve been in a no interest rate environment pretty much ever since then. It’s a different animal. No one has any idea what the fed is going to do, including Powell himself. He cut when he said he was going to raise. All the yield curve right now indicates is that no one knows what the fuck is going on. And there’s a whole bunch of charlatans out there trying to take advantage of that by telling you *they* know what’s going on.

    It’s not just regular Americans who fall for that. Plenty of people on Wall Street are fooled either bc they’re too lazy to do the work or they lack conviction in themselves.

  228. dtrickey

    I must be desperate for some rootable basketball. I was watching Uncle Drew for the first time and found myself cheering the Rucker final.

    I found myself watching a bit of the WNBA this off-season. Been some pretty good games tbh. Plus World Cup start next week.

  229. rama got that Fizdale Magic

    @264

    We are a little light on big men, so looking into insurance isn’t a bad idea. I mean, it’s not as if we signed 4 or 5 bigs this off-season….

  230. Grocer

    It’s not just regular Americans who fall for that. Plenty of people on Wall Street are fooled either bc they’re too lazy to do the work or they lack conviction in themselves.

    Credit, that’s a fair answer to what I’m hearing. Not sure I buy into the lazy or conviction, but it is a straight answer. These folks frequently get shit wrong.

  231. Z-man

    Look, I may be wrong about 80% of the shit I talk here

    More like 70%, but hey, I’m even wrong from time to time!

  232. Early Bird

    We could definitely use a shot blocker, and I love UCONN players, but Thabeet???

    Idk, we don’t have room on the actual roster anyway.

  233. Hubert

    It’s a little weird you think jobs numbers don’t matter as well but you know.

    I didn’t say job numbers don’t matter. I said the revision doesn’t matter. Every report gets revised. Then the revision gets updated. It’s insane. Some are revised up. Some are revised down. Some people trade the initial number, some the revision, some the second revision.

    The job numbers are very important, but they’re strong. One revision doesn’t matter very much.

  234. Hubert

    The troubling signs in the bond market are more about fear of a policy mistake than signs of a bad economy. A policy mistake can cause a recession when all the signs are great. Trump is clearly capable of an incredible policy mistake, so yeah that’s a problem.

    On the other side, Sanders is pretty much promising to deliver a policy mistake. He’s the last guy you should want in charge if you’re afraid of a recession.

    I assume Biden would just appoint from the same pool as Obama, which is fine. He’s probably the best candidate if all you want is for the economy to keep on humming without policy mistakes.

    Warren is a more palpable slice of Sanders. She’ll hurt the markets but she’s sensible enough not to do anything stupid. Her v Trump is a fascinating choice from a market POV. Trump implements policies that stimulate the markets but he also threatens to derail the whole economy. Warren would probably stifle markets but be wise enough to keep the economy on track.

  235. Donnie Walsh

    I can’t believe that I’ve read as many of these posts as I have, given that I have such acute political news fatigue that I can barely function these days. But I’ve read the basketball posts of the participants for so long, that I actually like to see a little color commentary by them. Through basketball, I have come to know the regulars here, their opinions, and the way they think and communicate, that I find it way more interesting to watch them talk politics and current events than the heads on cable news.

    (And may I also say that anybody that has read this blog closely since its inception and doesn’t see the metaphor between the Dolan administration and the Trump administration is missing out on some fine subtext. Even on this thread: the same people that defended and praised Phil Jackson and the disaster of his Knick presidency are… (well, I won’t spoil the metaphor, but you see where I’m going with this)

  236. djphan

    hubert is right about the finance part…. i’m not in finance but closely attached to it in both my professional and personal life… and let me tell you… there are very few ppl who actually know what they are doing…. they might talk the talk… they might get fat bonus checks…. they could even be billionaires…. but that does not make them oracles…. but they very very often get treated as such….

    someone telling you anything is certain about the market is really just trying to make a name for themselves…. nothing in the market is certain… and just like at the casino there is no such thing as we’re due…. there will be a recession at some point… but getting the timing down is a fool’s errand…. even the guys who proclaim they got the dotcom and housing crisis right… they probably were right for the wrong reasons… or there strategy and mindset made them get that one thing right but fail at everything else….

    john paulson and david einhorn were like that.. rockstar hedge fund managers that got one large bet right but can’t manage to do anything else…. they are very very smart guys…. but even the most brilliant guy doesn’t know everything…. and in the markets nobody has that knowledge to rely on them consistently… not anybody at these big hedge funds… even the quant guys… not anybody at the fed… and not even warren buffet who i respect a ton….

    i will disagree on the inverted yield curve… there’s a lot that goes into it… but some fear of a policy mistake is not one of them…. policy takes a long time to take any material effect if at all… and bond rates would not go down on the back of some economic policy that would probably get backtracked once trump leaves office…. there’s a lot more other factors to pay attention to… the current trade war… brexit…. and yes the us economy…..

  237. Frank O.

    Hubert
    August 27, 2019 at 5:17 pm
    Yield curve got worse today; all early market gains today wiped out.

    The yield curve is noise. The market is a lagging indicator. And it’s also up nearly 40% since he got elected.

    okay. this is ignorant parroting of right wing media.
    The yield curve is predictive.
    The market is inflated, and anyone who knows anything about it knows it’s inflated.
    Quantitative easing has artificially inflated it. QE is money created out of thin air to give banks liquidity. But the only way average Americans could access that was through mortgages. But corporations and wealthy can get their hands on that kind of inflation.
    The markets are artificially up also because of the tax cut, which has virtually little impact on demand but enriched companies that turned that money into stock buy backs to enrich stock holders, the vast majority of which are wealthy. 401Ks are a minuscule portion of the market place activity.

    So, A) inversion is predictive of recession because it shows a lack of faith in the bond market in the future economic picture, so yield on the 30 year falls below the yield on short term, and b) the market sees the inversion and freaks out, c) and that is why the president and others are clamoring for a rate cut.

    The market having been up is a sugar high largely from QE and the tax cut and also the market being up that much is in the past. This is a conversation about what comes next. The market doesn’t give a shit about the past performance anymore.

    And by the way, the S&P is down 1% over the past year and only up .5% since Jan. 2018. S&P is actually up 26% since Inauguration day, but has largely been flat for 19 months.
    The Dow is down 3% since January 2018, 19 months, and the Dow is up only 30% since Inauguration day.
    So, please, tell me more about the great Trump market

  238. The Honorable Cock Jowles

    this reminds me of arguments about Tyson Chandler in the wake of their 18-6 run when he was injured

  239. gransoporro

    I must say this political/economical thread is much much more interesting than the average BB thread during the season.

    Good job everyone.

  240. swiftandabundant

    Hubert, its very easy to dismiss any indications the economy is about to go into a recession if your main argument boils down to anyone who thinks the economy might go into a recession is ignorant or a fear monger. You’ve said that about 3 different times to points people have brought up. Its kind of like calling anything you disagree with “fake news.”

    Maybe you’re right. But you have to admit…there are indications that the economy is slowing down. Maybe some of those indications don’t always mean the economy is going to go into a recession, but its not like there’s just one indication, there are several. Manufacturing has also slowed down recently.

    Admittedly I’m not an economist and I don’t work in finance. But I do read a lot and not just from the same news sources. I hop around a lot to get different perspectives. Its not just anti-Trump people saying this.

  241. JK47

    I just got hired as composer for a prime time show on ABC.

    American Housewife, check us out on Fridays at 8:00 this fall!

  242. KnickfaninNJ

    VDH speaks for me…..

    But I don’t think VDH really supports your point. He’s not saying Trump is doing well, he’s saying no one is proposing alternative policies. He talks about Trump’s financial recklessness and then says “Yet we hear little about such financial profligacy.”. He’s right about that. Except for Warren no Democrat has much more than pie in the sky promises and attacks on Trump the man and his personality.

  243. geo

    Look, I may be wrong about 80% of the shit I talk here

    bookmarked :)

    i can just imagine sitting down with my financial advisor, hubert to talk about my money, when he starts the conversation off by telling me:

    “you know, nobody really knows what the fuck is going to happen…we’re all just really taking shots in the dark here”

    what???

  244. geo

    I must say this political/economical thread is much much more interesting than the average BB thread during the season.

    ditto times a thousand…money is like sports – it’s fairly easy to keep score (except for cricket of course – who knows what the hell is going on there)…

  245. Z-man

    That’s amazing, JK, you’re one step closer to making an offer that Dolan can’t refuse for the Knicks….

  246. Z-man

    Melo is participating in 5-on-5 scrimmages with the Knicks this week. We do need a veteran PF, right?

  247. Stratomatic: Sometimes referred to as Satan

    I just got hired as composer for a prime time show on ABC.

    American Housewife, check us out on Fridays at 8:00 this fall!

    That is so awesome!

  248. Stratomatic: Sometimes referred to as Satan

    Personally, as a more free market oriented person I am generally in favor of free trade and against tariffs. I will say though, I believe I’ve been subtly wrong about this for the last 30 years. I knew we’d lose a lot of jobs (even Ross Perot told us that), but I expected standards of living would rise in 3rd world countries faster they have and even things out. The thing is, with the fall of communism the supply of cheap labor has been almost endless. It’s decades now and most of the benefits are still going to foreigners and people whose jobs remained in the US that have enough money to invest. Cheaper goods were not enough to offset the damage.

    We’ve gutted much of the middle class. I now think free trade only works well if you have a 50+ year outlook (very long term) OR you are trading with countries with similar tax rates, regulations, standards of living, no subsidizing etc… If not, you can get screwed (and 10s of million of Americans did get screwed while we helped create great wealth elsewhere and at home for “some”).

    As to tariffs, if that’s what it takes to get other countries to the table to negotiate more balanced trade agreements, I don’t give a care if we have to suffer from a multi year slowdown and the president takes political heat for it from short term thinkers. The only thing that matters is whether we eventually get them to the table and get a more balanced deal. It may be up to the next president to have the will to stick it out and be less abrasive with foreign countries trying to get it done.

  249. Stratomatic: Sometimes referred to as Satan

    He’s right about that. Except for Warren no Democrat has much more than pie in the sky promises and attacks on Trump the man and his personality.

    That’s because Trump’s anti free trade and pro worker rhetoric “used to be” the job of the left. Also, much of their constituency is against wide open borders even though the elites know it strengthens the left’s position politically in the short term (until they assimilate and start moving to the center and right just like immigrants before them).

    Right now people mostly want higher paying jobs and controlled legal immigration at a pace that allows us to assimilate everyone without putting strains on local communities, social services, law enforcement, schools, hospitals etc… The want it be back to way it used to be a few decades ago (and by this I am not saying “white”, I am saying a strong vibrant middle class and controlled legal immigration)

    So instead of attacking his general policy goals, they are attacking his wildly flawed personality, divisive and abrasive rhetoric, and his ways of trying to accomplish what the consensus wants.

    In other words, he’s a racist, he’s a Russian spy, he’s crazy, he’s out of control etc… Some of that may be true. In fact, all of it may be true except the Russian spy garbage, but he’s not a conservative. He’s a populist that made inroads into the left’s constituency. That’s why there are people on both the left and right that hate him. He’s not a true republican/conservative. He’s a hybrid that’s causing problems for both sides.

  250. Hubert

    okay. this is ignorant parroting of right wing media.
    The yield curve is predictive.

    A parrot can only repeat what its heard, so no.

    As for part 2, a yield curve is not predictive. That’s not even a little bit true.

    The yield curve, by definition, represents the opinion of bond traders. Opinions are never predictive.

  251. Hubert

    The markets are artificially up also because of the tax cut,

    There’s nothing artificial about letting a corporation keep 14% more of its earnings.

  252. JK47

    Trump either didn’t know how tariffs work or he lied in public repeatedly about them. He constantly bragged of all the money the US government was bringing in from tariffs, which is, uh, wrong.

    Which means one of two things: he was actually ignorant of how they work, or he knows his base is so unquestioning that he can tell a whopper of a lie right to their faces and they’ll swallow it.

    I honestly don’t know which is true.

  253. Hubert

    And by the way, the S&P is down 1% over the past year and only up .5% since Jan. 2018. S&P is actually up 26% since Inauguration day, but has largely been flat for 19 months.
    The Dow is down 3% since January 2018, 19 months, and the Dow is up only 30% since Inauguration day.

    Good lord, the cherry picking. Let’s keep to the same rules that apply to basketball. You can’t use Inauguration Day as your starting point and pretend the market didn’t know he got elected 2.5 months earlier.

    Anyway, I haven’t said anything about the trump market. I know he’s juiced it. I was countering the people who come out here and say “trump is tanking the market”. That bullshit’s been going on since 2015. He’s not bad for the markets. Move off that point and on to the million other things he’s bad for.

  254. Stratomatic: Sometimes referred to as Satan

    Trump either didn’t know how tariffs work or he lied in public repeatedly about them. He constantly bragged of all the money the US government was bringing in from tariffs, which is, uh, wrong.

    I recently read a Wall St report that said that “so far’ (and I stress “so far”), the theory that the tariffs would be passed on to US businesses and consumers is not happening. So far, most of the costs are being eaten outside the US or there have been currency adjustments to offset them.

    We all know the idea is not raise to money anyway.

    It’s that in a trade war, since we have a massive trade imbalance with China, whatever damage we do to ourselves will be lower than the damage done to China. So both sides have every incentive to work out a a deal, but China’s incentive is greater.

    The offset is that in the US we can throw Trump out of office and the Communists aren’t going anywhere. They can wait him out, hope he loses, and deal with someone that will cave after the next election.

  255. Hubert

    But you have to admit…there are indications that the economy is slowing down. Maybe some of those indications don’t always mean the economy is going to go into a recession, but its not like there’s just one indication, there are several. Manufacturing has also slowed down recently.

    Admittedly I’m not an economist and I don’t work in finance. But I do read a lot and not just from the same news sources. I hop around a lot to get different perspectives. Its not just anti-Trump people saying this.

    I don’t disagree with any of this I’m just telling you these problems come from the way he’s using tarriffs. So unlike most causes of economic slowdown, it’s one that’s easy to reverse.

    What’s going to happen is trump is going to strike a deal with China. Whether it’s good or not won’t matter. He’ll say it’s good. Half the country will believe him and half will say it was a ploy. Regardless of who is right, everyone’s going to be excited that it’s over so it will *feel* like a big win for him and that’s all that matters.

    Mark it down. I feel even more confident about that than betting the under on the Knicks.

  256. The Honorable Cock Jowles

    bobneptune
    August 28, 2019 at 9:00 pm
    https://www.justice.gov/file/1115596/download

    k

    ?????????

    Your blameless President commissioned a felony for which his personal attorney is doing prison time, and for which he himself was named as an unindicted co-conspirator. But yes, the Obama loyalists and fake news media are responsible for that, according to the delusional, strawman-loving crypto-fascist bootlicker you linked to.

  257. The Honorable Cock Jowles

    I recently read a Wall St report that said that “so far’ (and I stress “so far”), the theory that the tariffs would be passed on to US businesses and consumers is not happening. So far, most of the costs are being eaten outside the US or there have been currency adjustments to offset them.

    My company makes a product that I am certain you have several of in your home (whether mine or a competitor’s). The “net cost” price went up 15% after the tariff announcement and has not fallen. I’m telling you this as a person on the front lines who sees price realization and for this one, you’re seeing an increase of 10-12% on this product alone. There are three value-add stages between me and the end-user (sub-contractor, general contractor, owner/stakeholder), which are not necessarily a flat adder.

    When tariffs were announced, every major manufacturer in my field announced price increases. It was hilarious watching large buying corporations send out memos that say, “We will NOT absorb tariff increases into our project commitments,” and hear that the response from all manufacturing management was something like, “Okay, we’ll cancel your POs. Enjoy your search for a cheaper product.”

    Maybe every other industry is different, but in my $40B field (a number that only accounts for manufacturing, not distribution, contracting or design services), it certainly has made its effects felt.

  258. KnickfaninNJ

    It’s that in a trade war, since we have a massive trade imbalance with China, whatever damage we do to ourselves will be lower than the damage done to China. So both sides have every incentive to work out a a deal, but China’s incentive is greater.

    This assumes that just export sales to China are the only cost of the trade war. But companies like Apple and GM sell in China but mostly not by exporting to China. Instead they build stuff in China or nearby for sale there. They make money off those sakes and support employees in the US, but those sales don’t count as exports. If China stops buying those products that’s bad for those companies and would effects on employment in the US, but it won’t show up as an export drop. It would probably permanently hurt some flagship American companies. Also, some companies will spend money just to shift production or purchasing from China to elsewhere but not to the US. This costs money but doesn’t create new products, it just moves a factory. It is also a cost of the trade war. I think the negative effects of the trade war are much more balanced than the analysis in the quote above makes it seem.

  259. ess-dog

    China’s domestic spending is growing daily, which is offsetting the tariffs somewhat. Plus, they are expanding sales around the Asia Pacific region and elsewhere. As for imports, I’m not certain, but they are likely getting better deals on things like soybeans, for instance, from other countries. That’s money that will never come back to the US.
    China can sit on this “war” through the 2020 election if they don’t get exactly what they want. And I’m sure the last thing they want to do at this point is create a “win” for Trump.
    If I were China, I’d stop talks altogether until they can deal with the next president (fingers crossed).

  260. geo

    fuck all this high level shit – somebody give me 3 weed stocks that’ll let me retire in five years…please :)

    that’s what I really wanna know…

  261. bobneptune

    Your blameless President commissioned a felony for which his personal attorney is doing prison time, and for which he himself was named as an unindicted co-conspirator.

    Which one?

  262. Ingmarrrr

    Which means one of two things: he was actually ignorant of how they work, or he knows his base is so unquestioning that he can tell a whopper of a lie right to their faces and they’ll swallow it.

    I honestly don’t know which is true.

    I had this type of question several times in conflict situations, and I found myself investing a lot of energy trying to understand which one is true. I finally decided this type of questions are impossible to answer from where I stand and realized what should I do.

    If 1 is correct — the person in question is stupid, or have no self reflection — it’s his / her issue. Let’s call it a question of their psychology, and I’m not a therapist so I should stay away from trying to figure it out.

    Regarding 2, whether or not it’s correct is meaningless because the net effect is there. The effect of the lie, or lack of self reflection, is hurting my cause. So I have to act as if 2 is the right answer, assume the person has some underlying psychology, or material reasons to act in a way that seems foolish, or nasty, and take that as a given. This is what he/she would do. Always. This is who they are.

    I’m not sure it’s the best strategy in all situations but as a rule of thumb it works for me, and it frees up the energy I was investing in an un-answerable question.

  263. Hubert

    i can just imagine sitting down with my financial advisor, hubert to talk about my money, when he starts the conversation off by telling me:

    “you know, nobody really knows what the fuck is going to happen…we’re all just really taking shots in the dark here”…

    Dude, if you sit down with your financial advisor and he tells you he knows what is going to happen, run the other way. This is an industry where the high tide rises all boats. Some people think their boat got raised because they were smarter than everyone else. Stay away from those people, or find out how to bet against them.

    Wealth management is not about knowing what’s going to happen. It’s about knowing how to protect you from systematic risk and uncertainty. (And being enough of an armchair psychologist to prevent your own biases from blowing up your portfolio.)

  264. Hubert

    i will disagree on the inverted yield curve… there’s a lot that goes into it… but some fear of a policy mistake is not one of them…. policy takes a long time to take any material effect if at all… and bond rates would not go down on the back of some economic policy that would probably get backtracked once trump leaves office…. there’s a lot more other factors to pay attention to… the current trade war… brexit…. and yes the us economy…..

    I might not have been clear on what I meant by a policy mistake, djphan. This is industry jargon that means something else outside.

    If Trump ramps up the tariffs (from here), that would be a policy mistake, and the impact would be pretty swift.

    If Fed Chairman Powell (who is under too much pressure and doesn’t seem comfortable with it) overreacts and makes rates negative, that would be a policy mistake, and the impact would be instant.

    That’s the kind of stuff I mean when I say the markets are afraid of a policy mistake.

  265. Hubert

    Back to Trump, the yield curve, and analogies that may or may not be helpful: he is definitely using his power to produce outcomes that would help him get reelected. Many expect him to strike a deal with China before the election that will boost the economy, bc that’s what he needs to get reelected. The problem is what he’s doing is very dangerous and can backfire easily. That’s why you have bond traders showing fear. It’s like he’s playing Russian roulette with a gun. Trump is extremely confident because he thinks he has taken all the bullets out of the revolver. We’re all scared because we know he’s off his rocker so there’s a good chance he left one in the chamber.

    The Yield Curve, FYI, is just a picture of bond investor confidence. That’s literally all it is. It is not predictive, as much as people want you to believe it is. All recessions are preceded by an inverted yield curve but not all inverted yield curves signaled a recession. Sometimes the bond market just gets spooked.

    Also, fwiw, bond investors and economists frequently disagree with each other. To the point that they’re almost like rival communities of advanced NBA statisticians who support different models (PER v RIPM, etc).

  266. Hubert

    Hubert is right

    Is it too early for me to open the Lagavulin 16? :)

    And congrats, JK47. I like Nick C’s line: “I guess I’ll tune it to *listen*.” ;)

  267. thenamestsam

    In this thread Hubert has both made a number of confident predictions about the direction of the economy and said that anyone who makes confident predictions about the economy is a huckster. I think I have whiplash.

  268. Ntilakilla

    JK, my wife passed this along re: Bernie…feel free to share it with your facebook buddy.

    This was awesome. It made me like the guy even more.

    Bernie’s the son of a poor immigrant who managed to raise a middle class family just like me.

    Refused to fight in the Vietnam War, the illegal and inhumane invasion of a decolonized nation which resulted in the deaths of thousands of innocent civilian casualties, like I would’ve done.

    Went to a public college and then excelled there enough to transfer to a prestigious private university just like me.

    Was unable to find gainful employment throughout much of his adult life like countless Americans who live below the poverty level today, making him sympathetic to their plight.

    Supported the Sandanistas in their anticolonial struggle against Reagan era death squads who massacred villages and priests.

    And he has an ex who refuse to badmouth him, which is a Herculean task for any man.

    I’m going to share this on social media!

  269. Ntilakilla

    what’s so “crackpot” about warren?

    She’s the opposite of a “crackpot” which is her appeal for her base of lot of upper-class white professionals with post-secondary degrees who love West Wing liberalism.

  270. The Honorable Cock Jowles

    Ntilikila is tied for the worst

    And I meant Hubert is right about distrusting any advisor who claims to know the future

  271. thenoblefacehumper

    It is genuinely interesting that Sanders and Warren appeal to such different crowds. I’ll say this for him: the idea that he only appeals to white voters has been debunked pretty strongly during this primary, and actually seems much more true of Warren.

    He’s got a legitimate beef with the way he was harped in 2016 on for what turned out to be a false narrative, while she hasn’t really had to answer for the fact that her base is almost entirely white.

    Personally I like Warren and don’t think her issues with non-white voters are for lack of effort or care, but man, I think anyone can admit that if Sanders’ base was so overwhelmingly white it would be impossible to go 10 minutes without hearing about it.

  272. TheClashFan

    Congrats, JK, on your new gig!

    Yeah, wow, I’d wondered if the Mets were “peaking” too soon, and now 6 losses in a row, all at home. The Phillies could put the final nails in the Mets coffin this weekend, but maybe the streaky Mets rebound and linger on the fringe of the Wild Card chase for a bit longer?

  273. Stratomatic: Sometimes referred to as Satan

    French Knicks Pod
    @FrenchKnicksPod
    OFFICIAL NEWS FOR FRANK !
    VINCENT COLLET ANNOUNCE THAT FRANK WILL BE THE STARTER FOR THE FRENCH NATIONAL TEAM
    congrats Frank !
    You deserve it with all the work you did everyday the last seven years.

    Max the kid fast!

  274. GianaDani

    Hubert is spot on. Predicting whats going to happen in the future is the same in financial industry as is in the rest of life. Who can predict next years finals MVP or exactly where Dorian is going to hit with what force? Science and statistics help make educated guesses. Thats all.

    Raising noise about an impeding recession using immaterial facts in order to effect change in business and consumer confidence (70% of economy) to gain power is pure evil. Anyone who repeats china trade noise which in total effects 2.9% of our GDP is a tool. Punks on the other side did the same thing threatening with with Greece and PIGS contagion to Obama. Many of the same paid and bought for “expert” talking heads. This is an EVIL play in standard political books.

    Our economy may very well be so strong and resilient right now that if we were unified like we were during the height of cold war against communism, – we won’t enter a recession even if we put sanctions on China and completely stopped trading with them.

  275. Hubert

    In this thread Hubert has both made a number of confident predictions about the direction of the economy and said that anyone who makes confident predictions about the economy is a huckster. I think I have whiplash.

    I made a statement about what Trump can do to influence the direction of the economy and predicted he’ll do that (with the caveat that he’s crazy and we can’t count on him to do the logical thing). That’s not the same as knowing what direction it’s headed.

    I have no idea where we’re headed, a crazy person is driving the car. I know where we are, though.

  276. Stratomatic: Sometimes referred to as Satan

    a crazy person is driving the car. I know where we are, though.

    Crazy people have been driving the car since December 23, 1913 (the day we created the Fed).

  277. Stratomatic: Sometimes referred to as Satan

    Haha. Not touching that, Strat.

    My gold mining stocks are doing great in this environment. If the crazies bring QE Infinity and negative nominal interest rates to these shores I may be able to buy court side Knicks season tickets next to Spike. lol

  278. Ntilakilla

    Personally I like Warren and don’t think her issues with non-white voters are for lack of effort or care, but man, I think anyone can admit that if Sanders’ base was so overwhelmingly white it would be impossible to go 10 minutes without hearing about it.

    Warren has major problems speaking to working class communities of color. You can see it whenever she sits down with their leaders. This recently released video highlights how she fails in that regard. A technocratic wonk like her doesn’t identify solutions to their problems at the grassroots level. Raising abstract housing numbers and Senate floor debates about Obamacare doesn’t speak to the concrete everyday realities these activists face because they know there is a vast difference between crafting a policy and how its implementation will concretely better their lives. And Warren can’t account for that difference which is why she talks around their specific questions.

    And, yes, I agree that if Bernie had this same problem during the current primary cycle the media would’ve run with it and shouted it to the hilltops. We should not forget the entire “Bernie Bro” narrative was circulated by Clinton surrogates to reinforce the spurious notion that his base of supporters were confined to white, heterosexual males. Little in contemporary liberal political discourse is quite as simultaneously humorous and offensive as when some milquetoast liberal shows the ignorant gall to call his supporters “Bros” when their majority are comprised of women and persons of color from working class backgrounds.

  279. Unreason

    @191 Mehrab
    EW’s votes, cosponsored senate bills, and public statements suggest she’s likely to continue the gradual movement away from direct US military involvement in the region. That means decreased pressure to prevent Iran from “doing whatever it wants” in nearby countries, as you say. She’ll likely prefer sanctions and diplomacy as the means of pursuing US objectives.

    Her objectives re Iran would probably be similar to current and past ones: reduce or contain its military power and political influence; make it more democratic and friendly toward Western liberal democracies.

    She’ll probably want to revive the JCPOA. She criticized Trump’s withdrawal. She’ll reverse Trump’s unqualified backing of the Saudis in Yemen. She cosponsored S.J.Res.7, a joint resolution “to direct the removal of United States Armed Forces from hostilities in the Republic of Yemen that have not been authorized by Congress” which was vetoed by Trump. She might check Saudi aspirations for greater influence in the region more broadly. She cast several votes to block arms sales to Saudi Arabia and voted against tabling S.J.Res.39, a joint resolution disapproving of arms sales to them. So, she’s likely to give less support to one of Iran’s regional rivals.

    She’d probably keep current sanctions targeting Iranian-allied groups like Hamas and Hezbollah.

    My guess is that neither a republican nor a democratic president are very likely to initiate sustained military pressure on Iran’s direct or indirect actions in other countries. John Bolton, the National Security Adviser, is an exception to what seems like a broad consensus that we should reduce our regional role after years of costly and mismanaged efforts there.

    Signals that the US is prepared to go to war with Iran are probably just posturing.

    Her checks on Russia would likely be stronger than Trump’s and would be done with allies.

    What actions by Iran in other countries do you find disturbing?

  280. Mehrab

    @337
    Thank you “Unreason”. Very good breafing on the matter.
    I think going back to JCPOA is just wrong. Go back to nuclear deal, withdraw the sanctions, and Iran’s regime will never get back to negotiations again. Maybe it was possible to somehow get them back to negotiations before withdrawing from JCPOA, but right now getting back to deal, make them more aggressive, make them believe there will be no pressure from this new administration, so they freely do anything they want.

    She cast several votes to block arms sales to Saudi Arabia and voted against tabling S.J.Res.39, a joint resolution disapproving of arms sales to them. So, she’s likely to give less support to one of Iran’s regional rivals.

    The doom of the situation in the region is this rivalry. none of them is even an inch better than the other one, but whenver you criticize one of them, they’re apologists come out to point how evil is
    the other one. The problem is not one of them, but simply both. I don’t understand why some people in US just want to ignore Iranian regime’s acts, just to criticize US for being ally with Saudis (like @246 in this post)

    Her checks on Russia would likely be stronger than Trump’s and would be done with allies.

    I hope it would be stronger. though I don’t see how. not like Obama I wish.

    What actions by Iran in other countries do you find disturbing?

    Israel/Palestine of course. I was hopeful about the deal of the century at first. but now I have no Idea at all about how it will end. what is Warren’s view on that matter?

  281. Z-man

    Is it too early for me to open the Lagavulin 16? :)

    Never too early for that!

    Last night my wife and I went out after seeing my daughter’s college volleyball debut. I ordered a Lagavulin 16 on the rocks and was charged $9!! That stuff is the best!

  282. Early Bird

    It’s ironic that Ntilakilla dismisses the Bernie Bro narrative while simultaneously shouting down all non-Bernie opinions.

    I like Bernie, I find many of his supporters intolerable.

  283. thenoblefacehumper

    It’s ironic that Ntilakilla dismisses the Bernie Bro narrative while simultaneously shouting down all non-Bernie opinions.

    I like Bernie, I find many of his supporters intolerable.

    That’s totally fair, but the “bro” narrative really is empirically false. Here’s just one example from Pew–of all the candidates running, his base is more non-white, and made up of more women, than anyone else’s. If my understanding of the “bro” narrative is correct…it’s really just flatly wrong.

    I don’t have any great theories about why people find his supporters so aggravating, but to give it a shot, it’s clear they’re younger, less educated, and more disenchanted with politics than most political coalitions. I would imagine these factors lead them to engage in discourse in a manner most political junkie/media types find unusual.

  284. geo

    Last night my wife and I went out after seeing my daughter’s college volleyball debut. 

    when I grow up I wanna be z-man and actually live my life :)

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