NY Post: Knicks signing GM Scott Perry to multi-year contract extension

From Brian Lewis:

The Knicks have agreed to a contract extension with general manager Scott Perry.

The news was first reported by The Athletic, and a league source confirmed the multi-year extension to The Post. The team is not expected to make any statement.

Perry was a holdover from the prior regime, with Steve Mills having actually pried him away from Sacramento back in 2017. Perry signed forward Julius Randle – who won NBA Most Improved Player and developed into an All-Star this season – as well as drafted center Mitchell Robinson and signed Bobby Portis.

But when Mills was relieved of his duties, team president Leon Rose and executive vice president/senior adviser William Wesley kept Perry on as GM.

“Scott worked very well with Leon and Wes,” a league source told The Post. “[They] have a very talented and experienced front office, and he’s a valuable piece of it.”

Good for Perry. Rose obviously likes his team of rivals approach and Perry is clearly a big part of that, so fair enough to bring him back.

Good news for Knick fan not in NJ!

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353 thoughts to “NY Post: Knicks signing GM Scott Perry to multi-year contract extension”

  1. …and I am very ok with that. I don’t know how, but this FO works. Somehow each of their strengths brings a level of cohesiveness that Knicks fans haven’t seen in ages. I like it…until they screw the pooch lol

  2. I’m okay enough with it,
    my only fear is that, as Alan pointed out, keeping Perry will cost us someone else going on, but maybe they will simply create well-paid new FO positions to keep everyone happy…

  3. I like Giddey and would trade up for him. I don’t particularly like Bouknight or Moody but if mgmt likes them, I’ll reserve judgement. I’d also be okay with trading up for Mitchell if it doesn’t cost too much.

    If we stay put, so far I’m good with Mann, Duarte, Cooper, Murphy and Butler.

  4. Did someone here suggest that Perry is Dolan’s plant, replacing Mills in that role? Seems far-fetched to me. He’s very well respected around the league, but shouldn’t be making personnel decisions, only seeing them through. Might be a good legwork guy for a novice like Rose. I doubt Dolan would have insisted on keeping him if Rose didn’t want and trust him.

  5. Nice article in the Athletic on the consensus opinion of five anonymous scouts collectively known as Finch on the top 50 American draft prospects. Here’s the take on Bassey

    Charles Bassey, 6-11 junior center, Western Kentucky. “He’s not an elite athlete but he’s big, he’s strong, he rebounds, he can make a free throw. Kind of knows who he is. He could be a capable backup center. It was good to finally see him healthy. His skill set is not great. Not much of a playmaker at his position. I don’t know how much his outside shooting improved. He didn’t have anyone at Western Kentucky who could get him the ball. He fights pretty hard on the boards. His rebounding is going to translate.”

  6. If you want someone else’s profile let me know and I’ll post it. Note that I’m getting on a plane in a few minutes, so it may take a bit for me to reply

  7. this is why draft coverage sucks.. to put in perspective:

    Jarrett Allen height w/ shoes 6′ 10.25″ … wingspan 7’5.25″… standing vertical 31.5″… weight 233.. body fat 7.4%

    Charles Bassey height w/ shoes 6’10.25″.. wingspan 7’3″…. standing vertical 33.5″.. .weight 230.. body fat 5.9%

    you’re looking at a slightly more athletic Jarrett Allen… certainly more end to end speed.. absolutely as much of a lob threat as Allen and much more polished offensive game… it is criminal how many people have no idea how good Bassey actually is… and maybe the upside isn’t all that high … a rim running center who grabs boards and blocks shots are a dime a dozen now… but getting a capable rim running center who grabs boards and blocks shots in the second round is an absolute steal.. especially one that can be starting quality… and especially one who unlike so many others with that profile can be capable of more… finding one with a ft% of over 70% alone is incredibly rare…

    it’s a head scratcher .. especially from folks who get paid to do this… i don’t expect people to watch western kentucky games.. but anyone can open up youtube and see the gap he has over the competition…

  8. ***there’s no shame in being massively unknowledgeable about the history of the NBA and its all-time greatest players.***

    True, there is certainly no shame in it. But that, too, is moot to this argument. I am not disagreeing that Wilt dominated the sport 60 years ago, and I’m not disagreeing with the notion that he could have dominated it if he was playing in today’s era. But it’s not “proved” by the 2021 nba finals results, as you stated on Tuesday night. I personally believe that athletes are better today, and the game is more sophisticated than it was 60-70 years ago. But I acknowledge that there is much to the debate, and that no proof exists one way or the other. And it’s certainly not going to be found in one 4 game sample of a bizarre season.

  9. Donnie Walsh:

    True, there is certainly no shame in it. But that, too, is moot to this argument. I am not disagreeing that Wilt dominated the sport 60 years ago, and I’m not disagreeing with the notion that he could have dominated it if he was playing in today’s era. But it’s not “proved” by the 2021 nba finals results, as you stated on Tuesday night. I personally believe that athletes are better today, and the game is more sophisticated than it was 60-70 years ago. But I acknowledge that there is much to the debate, and that no proof exists one way or the other. And it’s certainly not going to be found in one 4 game sample of a bizarre season.

    There is no question that the average NBA player is bigger, stronger, faster and more of a complete player than the average NBA player of the 60’s, where Wilt spent his prime. But there were some sensational athletes and players in the NBA back then as well. There were also huge disadvantages for the players…starting with simple things like footwear (Have you ever played in Chuck Taylors?) to more complex things like diet, personal training, medical advancements) to environmental things (racism, smoke-filled arenas, no-frills travel, lousy courts) to restrictiveness (coach-limited individual freedoms, lack of role models) to rules differences (hand-checking, no flagrant fouls), and more.

  10. (con’d) But there are measurables and plenty of film of Wilt at all stages in his career, including against Bill Russell, Wilt’s main nemesis who was 100X the athlete, defensive player, that Ayton is. There is also the testimony of guys like Russell and Jerry West, who is a NBA lifer and not known as an exaggerator. No doubt that some of the Paul Bunyan-esque tales of Wilt from other guys is ridiculous, but there’s enough film to verify nearly all of the basketball stuff. This is probably the best compilation.

    Can I prove my claim to you to your satisfaction? That probably depends on your standard for evidence. Obviously no one could ever prove it beyond any doubt, but if the standard is beyond a “reasonable” doubt, I think the proof is there. Purely objectively, Wilt clearly was bigger, longer, stronger, faster, and more vertically athletic than Giannis. That can be verified with film study (sprint speed) and via actual measurements. As to skill level, you’d have to be quite cynical to believe that if he played today, he wouldn’t have mastered things like the Eurostep and the face-the-basket game, in addition to all the things he needed to do to average 50.4 points. On the other hand, there is plenty of evidence to suggest that Giannis hasn’t mastered the Dirk/Duncan Fadeaway (there is ample evidence that Wilt was very good at it) or the back to the basket game anywhere near to the level that Wilt did. And Wilt was a great passer when he wanted to be, leading the league in total assists one year. So if Giannis could win multiple MVPs in today’s game, and run up 50 points against DeAndre Ayton and Frank Kaminsky, well…

  11. Rogers and Hammerstein dominated broadway in the 50s. Nobody questions their greatness. A nostalgic audience may even claim their body of work is the best ever. But could Rogers and Hammerstein write blockbuster musicals today? Could their King And I/Sound Of Music template carry them among the diverse voices writing today? Perhaps they could, or perhaps they were a product of their time. We’ll really never know.

  12. Perry is Dolan’s and Mills’s plant; there’s no other explanation for him still being there. While he has a more senior title, it doesn’t sound like he’s even de facto more senior on the org chart than Aller or Perrin. That’s what happens when you have to hire/retain the boss’s buddy or nephew or somesuch. He’s the “GM” the way Mills was the “GM” when Phil was here and Mills was obviously a plant.

    Bad sign.

  13. I like that Leon is keeping Perry, he seems good at what Leon needs him to do – extract good values in trades and structure the contracts in a way that’s beneficial to the Knicks plans.

  14. Donnie Walsh:
    Rogers and Hammerstein dominated broadway in the 50s. Nobody questions their greatness. A nostalgic audience may even claim their body of work is the best ever. But could Rogers and Hammerstein write blockbuster musicals today? Could their King And I/Sound Of Music template carry them among the diverse voices writing today? Perhaps they could, or perhaps they were a product of their time. We’ll really never know.

    This analogy is flawed because of the nature of what Wilt does. R&H’s talents are more in the creative realm, not in the performance realm. A better analogy would be something like: would Jimi Hendrix be as successful today as he was in his day? Or Charlie Parker? Or Maria Callas? Or Beethoven? Of course they would.

    I think it’s totally fair to say the Wilt probably would probably not have had the opportunity to average 50 points and 27 rebounds today, or 48.5 minutes a game. Those kinds of records were more a product of the times. But the physical and technical attributes that he had are timeless, just like Jimi Hendrix’s skill with the guitar trancends time and the limitations of his era.

    Some all-time greats from the past certainly wouldn’t translate to the same level of greatness today. Bob Cousy, George Mikan, and others certainly beneffited from the limitations of the times they played in, including the systemic racism of their times. Guys like Russell, Baylor, West, Barry, Thurmond, Robertson, they would figure it out. Wilt is in a whole different stratosphere than those guys. His measurables are not in question in any way. He would still be the strongest, fastest and most agile big man in the game today, at Rudy Gobert’s size. Plus he’d be able to rear back on dunks, take eurosteps, pass to shooters for corner 3’s, etc.

  15. Now about the draft, we have less than a week, please start throwing your choices. There’s a lot of possibilities, and it’s certainly hard to know who to choose when we’re picking so low (to what we’re used to), but let’s put names to it.
    I made my choices on the last thread:

    If we select 3 times, i’d take Jaden Springer and Jared Butler in the first round, and Queta with pick 32 (no need to re-sign Noel then).
    If we trade up (sending one of the firsts and #32), i think we can’t go very far, as we all have discussed, so i hope it’s for Bouknight or Kispert (players most likely to produce right away). And then Springer again, with the other first round pick.

  16. Here’s a very detailed article about the definition of “athleticism” and how Springer and Mann, while not gifted athletes in the traditional sense, make the most out of their athletic package:

    https://www.thestepien.com/2021/05/12/compensation-kings-redefining-athleticism-with-mann-and-springer/

    By extension, it explains why Obi, even with his verticality, is not really as “athletic” as his measurables would suggest.

    BTW sign me up for Springer or Mann.

  17. Z-Man and Donnie, I agreed with both of you :-)

    I think that when comparing geniuses of different eras you must put everything in context, try to project them with the technology advances, training and medicine progress and (multi) cultural leaps and as a first step always you must look at their value against their “standard” contemporaries.

    Otherwise you’ll end up with David Fincher being better than Orson Welles, the Beatles being overrated (I’m a Stones’ guy but come on!), Norman Schwarzkopf being better than Hannibal, Dan Brown selling more than Jules Verne, Anthony Joshua towering over Muhammad Ali or some other bizarre assesments like that.

    World changes, sports change, art changes, but they will always be defined by “pioneers”, specimens, innovators, creators that forever changed the course of history, that made their environment different than before and Wilt was one of these.

    At the end we’ll never know how those people would have influenced the world had them lived today, but having a discussion about it is fun as long as we put away yes/no manicheistic hot takes and provide thoughtful elements to sift through and mold an informed opinion…
    not an easy thing to do in 2021…

  18. I’m not a draft expert but I’m against picking a C in the first round while I’m all in for Queta with the 32nd, reports describe him as a good rim protector, an improved passer with decent offense, plus he’d make Cyber happy.

    In the first round I’d rather go, depending on who’s available, with a PG/SG to nurture next to a veteran plus a shooting wing, a Bullock replacement that can be used from the bench as he grew up if Bully’s re-sign.

    I’m not sold on Sharife Cooper because as a Knicks fan I’ve had enough of non-shooting PG and I’m skeptical about small guards if not otherwordly offensively.

    But on names I gladly defer to Dj and other draftnicks.

  19. TNFH you are posting on the previous thread, might want to repost here…

    Appreciate it!

    1. Jalen Suggs
    2. Jalen Green
    3. Cade Cunningham
    4. Evan Mobley
    5. Scottie Barnes
    6. Josh Giddey
    7. Jalen Johnson
    8. Alperen Sengun
    9. Franz Wagner
    10. James Bouknight
    11. Moses Moody
    12. Jaden Springer
    13. Jared Butler
    14. Jonathan Kuminga
    15. Sharife Cooper
    16. Keon Johnson
    17. Josh Christopher
    18. Ayo Dosunmu
    19. Chris Duarte
    20. Cam Thomas
    21. Miles McBride
    22. Nah’Shon Hyland
    23. Tre Mann
    24. Usman Garuba
    25. Davion Mitchell
    26. Charles Bassey
    27. Neemias Queta
    28. Jason Preston
    29. Isaiah Jackson
    30. Trey Murphy III
    31. Mckinley Wright
    32. Justin Champagnie
    33. Corey Kispert
    34. Joel Ayayi
    35. JT Thor
    36. Aaron Henry
    37. Day’ron Sharpe
    38. Isaiah Todd
    39. DJ Steward
    40. David Johnson
    41. Matthew Hurt
    42. Kai Jones
    43. Kessler Edwards
    44. Jose Alvarado
    45. Daishen Nix
    46. Greg Brown
    47. Ziaire Williams
    48. Scottie Lewis
    49. Joe Wieskamp
    50. Jay Huff
    51. Isaiah Livers
    52. Santi Aldama
    53. Juhann Begarin
    54. Luka Garza
    55. Trendon Watford
    56. Joshua Primo
    57. Gabriele Procida
    58. Quentin Grimes
    59. DJ Carton
    60. BJ Boston

  20. In the range we’ll be picking (barring a trade up, which Wasserman confirmed on Macri’s pod this morning is still a strong possibility…blech), there might be no more bankable NBA skill than Cooper’s playmaking. I simply see no way it doesn’t translate to the NBA–the man is going to have a career as a change-of-pace guard at the minimum and perhaps something a lot more than that.

    Everything else is a bit of a Rorschach test. Do you look at his 3PT% or FT%? The frequency with which he got to the rim, or his meager conversion rate when actually there?

    Some notable numbers:

    -His finishing rate at the rim was an unsightly 49.5%…but this was with a cartoonishly low 8.7% of his shots there assisted.

    -He took 93 shots at the rim in 12 games. For reference, Immanuel Quickley took 50 shots at the rim in 30 games his last season at Kentucky.

    -He hit 38% of his non-rim 2PT shots, which actually isn’t a bad figure. Especially considering that literally zero of them were assisted!

  21. I’m not as high on Suggs as some others here. Still a top half of the lottery pick but I’d probably have him at #4-6 behind Cade, Green, and Mobley for sure, and maybe others.

    I really hope we stay put and take two swipes at it, or at worst, we package #19 and #32 to move up a couple of spots. There’s just so much parity and no one really jumps out as a trade-up target unless you get all the way to the top, which isn’t happening,.

  22. Max: I’m all in for Queta with the 32nd, reports describe him as a good rim protector, an improved passer with decent offense, plus he’d make Cyber happy.

    Yes, it would. Thanks for the support. :)
    I forgot to sell another plus of Queta, his FT shooting started at .565 in his rookie season, but then he followed with .670 and .707, so probably there’ll be no hack-a-Queta in the NBA.

  23. Vorkunov suggest the following 7 at our draft spots:
    Jackson
    Murphy III
    Mann
    Springer
    Duarte
    McBride
    Cooper

    I’d be good with any two of these guys except Jackson, who is redundant unless we bail on Mitch. We can find his ilk for cheap on the FA market.

    My current order would be:
    Springer
    Mann
    Murphy
    Cooper
    Duarte
    McBride

  24. -His finishing rate at the rim was an unsightly 49.5%…but this was with a cartoonishly low 8.7% of his shots there assisted.

    This has been my criticism of Cooper… he lacks a bit of self awareness and he thinks he’s a few inches taller than he actually is…. he goes in challenging against length and far too often he gets stuck with no where to go…. short pg’s makes these micro assessments all the time…. do you go for it? do you go for the floater? a pass? dribble through? step back midrange?

    the lack of assisted fg’s come with how much he dominates the ball…. and so if he’s not dominating the rock… how much can he contribute? how much are you willing to tolerate him forcing his way to the rim? that’s a big risk imo…. and to me he’s a bit lacking on the decisionmaking front coupled with his lack of ability to finish..

    that in itself isn’t the end of the world… there have been short pgs who have had mediocre freshman years…. and haven’t been perfect either…. but there aren’t many that have these foundational questions about his game so there’s some higher than normal bust potential here…. if he does figure it out in some fashion there’s enough there to make out a decent career although i’m a bit muted on high the upside goes… i kind of think he’s more trey burke than trae young….

  25. Is Wasserman even an insider or is he just guessing? i feel like he’s starting all these Knicks trade up rumors and i’m not sure what he’s basing this on besides ‘cuz thibs’…

  26. I’m totally against trading up. Non-lottery picks are dart throws, and I’ll take 2 darts over 1 any day of the week.

  27. **Perry is Dolan’s and Mills’s plant; there’s no other explanation for him still being there.**

    E, just wondering why “he might be good at his job”, “gets along with the FO team”, or ” has valuable insights” have been dismissed. You must have inside info, which would be nice to share.

  28. Duarte working out for us today. Again, I know nothing but what I read in all these scouting reports, but he definitely sounds like the safest pick we could make in either spot, unless his success was entirely about being a man among boys in college.

  29. This has been my criticism of Cooper… he lacks a bit of self awareness and he thinks he’s a few inches taller than he actually is…. he goes in challenging against length and far too often he gets stuck with no where to go…. short pg’s makes these micro assessments all the time…. do you go for it? do you go for the floater? a pass? dribble through? step back midrange?

    Yeah, watching him was galling for this reason. I guess it was a little hard for me to separate how much of it had to do with his stubbornness vs his role on that mess of an Auburn team, which as you know was The Sharife Show by design for all of his games.

    Could he be coached out of those feckless attempts against bigs? What does a somewhat scaled back version of him look like? It’s pretty hard to answer these questions based on his college year and you definitely have to bank on some coachability and/or the development of some off-ball value.

  30. I don’t think Perry is all that valuable but the idea that he’s a Dolan/Mills (?!?!?!) plant is laughable. The guy has been in the NBA for over twenty years for multiple teams. This is not Steve Mills, who wouldn’t qualify to be an intern for 29 NBA teams yet was given the reigns of the New York Knicks.

    I understand everyone is content starved but re-signing him is a nothingburger.

  31. I’m not a Perry fan, but there seems to be enough financial and basketball wisdom in the group as a whole to be comfortable with them. The first year results were encouraging enough also. They found good value. This is going to be an interesting few weeks that will either support that notion or raise my blood pressure. :-)

  32. Perry’s calling card when we hired him was supposedly agent relations so I guess thats something

  33. thenoblefacehumper: Appreciate it!
    1. Jalen Suggs
    2. Jalen Green
    3. Cade Cunningham
    4. Evan Mobley
    5. Scottie Barnes
    (…)

    Man, your commitment is outstanding, thanks. I couldn’t make a Top60 list, that’s for sure, maybe separate some players in tiers, but the ones i know better are the ones that’ll be available for our picks, the rest i tend to ignore. :P
    I agree with most of your list, but i have some questions for you about the position of 3 or 4 players:
    1. You really like Jalen Johnson a lot, but he might be available if we trade up some spots (he’s mocked in the teens more often than not, i think). If we do it, and you have Johnson and Bouknight available, you’d take Johnson?
    2. You’re really down on Kuminga? Why? He’s only 18, so i think the potential is there, although he didn’t show it in the best way to get drafted higher, i think going 5th is the most probable outcome.
    3. I also have mixed feelings about Kispert, but 2nd round? If you can tell what red flags are you seeing in him, i’d like to know.
    4. And last, some players at the tail end of the draft, i’m also high on Ayayi and in some mocks he’s there for our pick #58*, if he is i hope we take him and have him in place of Harper. Another tail end guy, i have Robinson-Earl as a good target for pick #58* and you don’t have him at all. You don’t think he’s Top60 or did he flew under your radar?
    * – when i say pick #58, it can be #48 or something, if we can package #58 and money to go up some spots.

  34. I’m trying to convince mysef that I can be happy with a Duarte/Dosunmu/Queta trio,
    not the sexiest picks but probably three plug and play rotation pieces, all well regarded for their work ethic and decent defenders.

  35. Max:
    I’m trying to convince mysef that I can be happy with a Duarte/Dosunmu/Queta trio,

    Duarte/Dosunmu/Queta sounds like an incantation to raise spirits from the dead

  36. I didn’t noted this at the end of the game (from Marc Stein newsletter):

    “It wasn’t his most egregious act of the series — that would probably be the shove to Antetokounmpo’s midsection as Giannis was finishing off Holiday’s exquisite lob for a clinching dunk at the end of Game 5 — but I’m surprised more wasn’t made of Paul walking off the floor after Game 6 without shaking any of the Bucks’ hands.

    Crushing as the defeat was, Paul isn’t just the Suns’ on-court leader but also president of the Players Association. Highly disappointing decorum.”

  37. d-mar: Duarte/Dosunmu/Queta sounds like an incantation to raise spirits from the dead

    LOL so is there a chance for Kevin Knox?

  38. djphan:
    Is Wasserman even an insider or is he just guessing? i feel like he’s starting all these Knicks trade up rumors and i’m not sure what he’s basing this on besides ‘cuz thibs’…

    I’ve only listened to a bit of his appearance on Macri’s pod so far, but Wasserman frames it as a thing he has heard from another team: the Knicks have started placing calls, including to this team. To avoid giving away his source, he just said they are at the moment looking to get into the late lottery.

  39. thanks for that list Alan… it’s worth mentioning also that some folks will work out and not publicize.. a lot of times beat writers or others will reach out to prospects or teams to verify a workout took place… some prospects and teams are forthcoming and some aren’t… so that list is probably only what’s verified through beat writers.. social media or direct contact with the player or team…

    for instance it was confirmed with the Vrenz workout that Jaden Springer was also in the gym but he’s not listed… I think a similar thing happened to Cam Thomas also… sometimes workouts will be conducted in secret also although i think those days are gone….

    so that’s not an exhaustive list just what’s confirmed so far…

  40. Indeed, djphan. The other thing to consider is that sometimes teams specifically avoid working out the players they want most to disguise their interest, since they have intel on them from other sources.

  41. I’ve only listened to a bit of his appearance on Macri’s pod so far, but Wasserman frames it as a thing he has heard from another team: the Knicks have started placing calls, including to this team.

    thanks for that… wasserman never struck me as an insider with actual sources so i guess that’s a surprise then…

  42. That said…

    @IanBegley
    Chris Duarte’s Knicks workout today is solo, per SNY sources. NYK has worked out other prospects in group settings. So Duarte’s solo workout indicates NYK’s level of interest in him. Duarte’s projected to be drafted before NYK’s picks (19 & 21). @AdamZagoria 1st reported workout.

  43. They don’t list Grimes who definitely worked out for the Knicks.

    I’d probably prefer Grimes to Duarte. I really don’t trust his advantages from being 24 to translate to the NBA.

  44. I know the track record of older lottery picks isn’t great (which is another reason to worry about Obi’s future, I guess), but how about older 22 and 23-year-olds who are taken in the late teens or 20s?

  45. Thanks for the link, Alan. And yeah, probably the Cavs won’t select Kuminga 3rd overall and he’s the only high profile prospect that had a work out there.

  46. Alan: Chris Duarte’s Knicks workout today is solo, per SNY sources. NYK has worked out other prospects in group settings.

    I’d be more worried if he had been on a 3-on-3. :P

  47. E, your conspiracy theories are ridiculous. Scott Perry has worked for various front offices around the league for two decades. So when Dolan fired Mills finally, did he have a meeting with Perry and ask him to stay but he had to be the new spy for him? Like just because Perry worked with/under Mills means that Mills infected him with his machavelian schemes to secretly destroy the Knicks? Give me a break.

    He’s good at contract negotiations, has had some success with trades, etc. He has his flaws but if he’s one of several voices, its great he’s staying on. He’s done some good stuff for us.

    He’s no Phil Jackson, but then again, who is?

  48. these workouts are negotiated in advance with agents and the team… if a prospect is comfortable with their range they’ll dictate terms…

    the 3on3 workout were with bassey.. dosunmu… jackson… mann… murphy… guys who were probably late firsts / early 2nds so they want to move up or secure the 32 pick… they’ll do whatever the knicks ask of them… duarte may have some leverage so shooting in an empty gym is going to showcase most of what he’s good at….

    the solo vs group doesn’t really tell you much beyond what’s already known… some guys want to improve their stock and they’ll get in as many gyms as they can to do it…

  49. **I know the track record of older lottery picks isn’t great (which is another reason to worry about Obi’s future, I guess), but how about older 22 and 23-year-olds who are taken in the late teens or 20s?**

    Idk, his game has to undergo fewer changes than Obi. But even as an older player in year 1 Duarte didn’t dominate inside the arc like he did this year. I just don’t buy that anyone is a sure thing to translate.

    Buying a low-ceiling player even if he only struggles in year 1 just doesn’t make sense to me.

  50. I suppose I’d be ok with Duarte but not trading up for him. It’s sort of a toss-up between him and Grimes, and I’d rather just go with the one that falls to us.

    If they don’t trade up (big if, which I am against), they will probably go with one high floor guy and one high ceiling guy, so something like Duarte/Christopher or Grimes/Cooper, which would be fine with me.

    As far as #32 goes, a recent video of Day’ron Sharpe show’s him draining 3 pointers and looking noticeably slimmer. He might be a good option for a 2nd round center (would be nice to have some shooting at that position for once).

    I suspect they are looking at McKinley Wright with their late 2nd but maybe with their early 2nd if he’s rising.

  51. I truly wonder whether Obi would have put up impressive numbers if he were drafted by a team that put him in the lineup for big minutes and didn’t care about wins and losses. I hope we get one more year to find out. He’s probably working on his defensive game as we speak and If Nerlens leaves, maybe he gets more minutes with Julius on the floor. Maybe he can evolve into a John Collins-level player.

  52. Alan: I know the track record of older lottery picks isn’t great (which is another reason to worry about Obi’s future, I guess), but how about older 22 and 23-year-olds who are taken in the late teens or 20s?

    Did a quick search for guys 22.5y or older, taken in the first round of the last 5 drafts, and the list is like this:
    2020 – none (Obi doesn’t qualify, he was 22.3y);
    2019 – 11) Cam Johnson, 23.3y; 21) Brandon Clarke, 22.8y; 26) Dylan Wyndler (who??), 22.7y;
    2018 – 21) Grayson Allen, 22.7y;
    2017 – 29) Derrick White, 22.9y;
    2016 – 6) Buddy Hield, 23.5y; 14) Denzel Valentine, 22.6y;

  53. Wasserman, re: Duarte’s workout with us:

    @NBADraftWass
    Duarte’s stock is hot. Interest has snowballed/spread, he’s become a trade-up target for teams. Unlikely here’s available at 19.

  54. ***A better analogy would be something like: would Jimi Hendrix be as successful today as he was in his day? Or Charlie Parker? Or Maria Callas? Or Beethoven? Of course they would.***

    Okay, let’s do the Beethoven test, as he is the Wilt of his time. His emergence changed the way the game was played for all other composers and his achievements are just as gaudy as Wilt’s and will never, ever be matched.

    That said, if Beethoven worked today rather than 200 years ago he probably would not be as successful. Though his skill and genius would be the same, there are extenuating factors that would hold him back, primarily: the music industry has changed and being a great composer is no longer as valuable. There is a reason that there have been no all-time great composers produced in the last 70 years. They have to hack it in film, where the competition is immense and creative control is wielded by too many people. And Beethoven probably wouldn’t have been able to simply evolve into pop music because his one attempt at opera was an epic struggle for him and is the biggest blight in his catalogue, mostly because he couldn’t write in Italian, which is the equivalent of being able to hit the corner 3 as far as opera writing goes.

    It’s possible that Wilt in 2020 would dominate. It’s also possible he’d be just another rim-running non-stretch center that Knickerbloggers love to love, but the rest of the league values at league-average contracts. And it’s also possible that if Durant, or Curry, or Harden, or Kobe, or McGrady, or Iverson, or any of the other scoring savants of the 21st century played in the 1960s, Wilt may not have many records to his name.

  55. Wilt would have been a star on the hardwood and in bed with the ladies in any era
    Drop mic

  56. Would rather not trade up and chase Duarte, if he gets picked it just pushes other guys down to us.

  57. #Duarte/Dosunmu/Queta sounds like an incantation to raise spirits from the dead#

    That’s some Classic Funny Shit!
    Thank You d-mar!

    I thought i was the wackiest in here but seems like I’ve become too mainstream and banal nowadays while ZMan and Donnie Walsh have taken it to another Level!
    Beethoven and Wilt struggling to make a living!! sports vs art!!! And Beatles fighting Justin Bieber for the heart of sweet Hailey!

    Keep it going knicksbrothers!
    The Heat is on here in Athens and your fantasy gives good chilling!
    ;-p

  58. Donnie Walsh: It’s possible that Wilt in 2020 would dominate. It’s also possible he’d be just another rim-running non-stretch center that Knickerbloggers love to love, but the rest of the league values at league-average contracts. And it’s also possible that if Durant, or Curry, or Harden, or Kobe, or McGrady, or Iverson, or any of the other scoring savants of the 21st century played in the 1960s, Wilt may not have many records to his name.

    I probably shouldn’t have thrown Beethoven in because he was both a composer and virtuoso performer, two very different realms. That said, he is thought to be one of the great genuises in history, and genius is a timeless thing. Wilt’s combination of stature and athleticism also transcended his sport and his times. So that part of the comparison is valid.

    It’s possible that Wilt wouldn’t dominate, but the probability is near zero. If you took the time to watch the entire hour of that scouting video, you’d see Wilt doing many things that would easily translate to todays game, such as the fadaway bank shot that I keep referencing. There are literally hundreds of examples of him making that shot with ease, and that alone would separate him from guys like Gobert and even Giannis. You’d see him doing virtually everything that Joel Embiid does (except the 3 which didn’t exist) except with much greater speed, length and agility. You can actually see the speed of Wilt in some of the clips, and can easily compare it to Embiid lumbering up the floor.

    As to having modern guys playing back in the day and having some records over Wilt, sure…but you’d have to consider them playing without the 3-pt shot, or playing 48 minutes including 5 games in five nights, or dealing with hand-checking and reduced floor spacing…and god forbid you embarrassed a big back in those days by rearing back for a dunk, you’d pay a heavy price. But I agree that Durant would have been an all-time great in any era. Kobe would have had to rein in his game a bit, but clearly would have been dominant.

  59. Just gonna put this out there. The Lincoln Center in the last 5 years or so did revivals of both The King and I and South Pacific. They tweaked a few scenes and some of the language here and there to make them less problematic and more with the modern times. They were both wildly successful productions that toured around the country and won a ton of awards. I saw the production of The King and I, which I had never seen before, and I really liked it. I think Rodgers and Hammerstein absolutely would have dominated Broadway if they came out today. A show like Thoroughly Modern Millie, which was a new show that was a throwback to that style, did really well and won a ton of Tony awards in the early 2000’s.

    Recent revivials of Hello, Dolly and Porgy and Bess were also super popular. Those same stories and songs updated a bit would be huge broadway hits.

  60. 1. You really like Jalen Johnson a lot, but he might be available if we trade up some spots (he’s mocked in the teens more often than not, i think). If we do it, and you have Johnson and Bouknight available, you’d take Johnson?
    2. You’re really down on Kuminga? Why? He’s only 18, so i think the potential is there, although he didn’t show it in the best way to get drafted higher, i think going 5th is the most probable outcome.
    3. I also have mixed feelings about Kispert, but 2nd round? If you can tell what red flags are you seeing in him, i’d like to know.
    4. And last, some players at the tail end of the draft, i’m also high on Ayayi and in some mocks he’s there for our pick #58*, if he is i hope we take him and have him in place of Harper. Another tail end guy, i have Robinson-Earl as a good target for pick #58* and you don’t have him at all. You don’t think he’s Top60 or did he flew under your radar?

    1. This is a good question and is basically a BPA vs fit litmus test. Bouknight is a much better fit for the Knicks for obvious reasons, but I do think Johnson will be the more productive player overall. However I’m not so confident in the latter assessment that I wouldn’t let the former influence my decision whatsoever, so if I was picking for the Knicks specifically there’s a good chance I’d take Bouknight.

    2. Kuminga has a body you can dream on, but boy his stint in the G-League was ugly. He showed some flashes here and there but I think he’s lucky he didn’t go to college because he might’ve been exposed as a BJ Boston-esque recruiting flop. Philosophically I lean more towards production than physical tools and Kuminga was very underwhelming.

    Continued…

  61. 3. I am generally wary of prospects who absolutely need to be able to shoot the lights out at the next level in order to stick. Their outcomes tend to be all over the place because shooting is a rather volatile skill when it comes to translation (the NBA 3PT line is longer, the NCAA sample sizes are necessarily on the smaller side even after 4 seasons, etc.). Kispert could be Joe Harris, but he could also be Malik Monk, and his upside isn’t such that I’m willing to risk that immense downside (at least not with a decent pick).

    4. Definitely weird to me that Ayayi is getting no attention whatsoever. Realistically you could swap out some of the guys I have at the very end for Robinson-Earl and I wouldn’t feel terribly strongly about it, but I don’t know what people see in him. Seems like a tweener in the worst way and didn’t have any standout skills in college.

  62. I’d give up both picks if it got us Sengun. He needs an outside shot, like every other NBA player for the rest of time, but the passing looks awesome and he’s obviously a beast in the paint.

  63. The Honorable Cock Jowles:
    I’d give up both picks if it got us Sengun. He needs an outside shot, like every other NBA player for the rest of time, but the passing looks awesome and he’s obviously a beast in the paint.

    I just worry that Sengun could be Enes Kanter just as easily as he could be a Nurkich or Vucevich, let alone a Gasol or Jokic. (To name only white Euros.) And the fit with Randle doesn’t seem ideal. He seems likely to be a good NBA player, but maybe not here?

  64. ***one of the great genuises in history, and genius is a timeless thing.***

    You make strong arguments regarding Chamberlin, but I strongly disagree with the above quote. Timing is EVERYTHING. Every great in every field is a product of their time. There are unsung geniuses everywhere you look. (Is it random chance that 3 most universally recognized greatest music geniuses known to man (Bach, Beethoven, and Mozart) were all born within a 150 mile radius of each other? Possibly, but it’s more likely that they were all simply fortunate enough to be born in the musical center of the western world at the time. Their genius had a platform and got recognized.

    Obviously, this has little to do with Wilt, who found his genius and got ample recognition for it (and plays a sport that has evolved, but retains a recognizable structure, allowing for comparisons to still hold some water). But timing really can’t be dismissed, and all genius be considered universal. And this, I think, is the key consideration that makes comparing players of different eras a vain pursuit. Your arguments are all solid. But there is simply no proof out there, as there are too many variables surrounding time.

  65. Donnie, I was talking about this the other day. There is the outliers book by gladwell that talks about that too. Like Bill Gates was lucky enough to go to a high school that had a computer lab in the late 70’s/early 80’s. One of the only ones at a school in the northwest at that time. If he was literally 2 years older, he would not have had access to that computer lab when in high school and it probably would have been a few years later before he discovered his love of computers of he would have focused his attention on something else instead. And if he was 3 or 4 years younger, there very easily could have been someone else who did what he did before him.

    Beatles were the same way. They got a big break being able to play at that bar in Germany every night for a year in the early 60’s. They played 2 sets a night for a year, doing blues and early rock and roll covers and that was how they honed their skills as musicians. Lots and lots of low pressure practice. And then they just so happened to hit it big when rock and roll was still pretty young but the Elvis/Chuck Berry/Little Richard era of the late 50’s was over. People were saying rock and roll was done right before The Beatles burst onto the scene.

  66. ***The Lincoln Center in the last 5 years or so did revivals of both The King and I and South Pacific… They were both wildly successful***

    But revivals work for a reason: people already know them, recognize them, and have nostalgia for them. That’s different from premiering in the modern era, within the scarce resource of Broadway stages that are all looking for the next Hamilton or Book of Mormon. That’s what a young Rogers and Hammerstein would be looking at while trying to get Oklahoma staged.

    I have no doubt that if a time quake hit and people could pay to watch Wilt play Russell live all over again, they’d sell the arena out. But that doesn’t mean they’d dominate against today’s competition. (That’s why “best revival” has it’s own Tony category in the first place).

    (And Jeanine Tesori has written a lot of solid shows, but I doubt that 50 years from now she is considered an all-time great given her current body of work).

  67. Outliers are outliers because they have prodigious amounts of talent, and they combine that talent with an incredible work ethic. Talent + work ethic is a combination that works in any era.

  68. Let’s not dig too deeply into the arts metaphor. Fame and fortune in the arts is as much cultural as anything else. Bach had patronage; The Beatles had television and LSD; and Hamilton had the internet and a rising tide of greenlighting POC creative voices.

    We’re mostly talking about whether Wilt was physically athletic enough to have played in today’s league, if he had all of the access to all-season AAU leagues, YouTube scouting videos and smartphone-recorded skills instruction. Sure! Or not! It’s all non-falsifiable claims. Who cares?

  69. Are we putting 1962 Wilt in a time machine, and having him walk right into an NBA game in his Chuck Taylors, or does Wilt get to be born in like 1996 and enjoy the benefits of modern training and equipment?

  70. Macri on the podcast says he is guessing (without any inside info, just looking at past moves by this management team) that if the Knicks are looking to trade up, it’s for Davion Mitchell. I’m really worried about Mitchell’s game translating to the NBA.

  71. “And it’s also possible that if Durant, or Curry, or Harden, or Kobe, or McGrady, or Iverson, or any of the other scoring savants of the 21st century played in the 1960s, Wilt may not have many records to his name.”

    If those guys played in the 60s, they wouldn’t have had ANY of the advantages in training, nutrition, and exercise they’ve all enjoyed. And that’s not even mentioning the greater level of physical contact and outright fighting that was acceptable back then. I don’t think Harden could have made it through one game in the 60s with his garbage head-jerking and intentionally seeking contact without someone at least leveling him with a hard screen.

    Mike

  72. Just to frame the discussion a bit, this conversation is rooted a comparison of Wilt and Giannis. I think Giannis is the closest thing I’ve seen to Wilt in terms of how he is so physically dominant to most of his competitors and has a skillset based on that dominance. Nearly his entire game is based on a special type of finesse that complements his power. He scored an easy 50 vs. Ayton and Frank without doing anything more advanced that what Wilt did, except he did some of it facing up and getting a running start. He wasn’t knocking down threes or pick-and-popping or breaking ankles with fancy ball-handling. He used a power game with most of his points coming in the paint with a couple of jumpers mixed in. And it is absolutely provable that Wilt was bigger, stronger, faster, had a higher vertical, was more skilled with his back to the basket, was a better rebounder, better passer, better shot-blocker, and had more physical endurance. It’s so clearly evident in the film and in the stats. It’s just not even debatable.

    I welcome anyone to pore over the film and point out flaws in Wilt’s game that suggest that it wouldn’t easily translate to being the most dominant big in the game today. That doesn’t mean he would be averaging 50 PPG or 27 RPG or playing 48 MPG or never fouling out or making 35 consecutive shots or scoring 100 points or grabbing 55 rebounds or any of the more outlandish things that are in the record books. But Giannis’ dominance speaks well for Wilt’s game translating and then some.

  73. JK47:
    Are we putting 1962 Wilt in a time machine, and having him walk right into an NBA game in his Chuck Taylors, or does Wilt get to be born in like 1996 and enjoy the benefits of modern training and equipment?

    One HUGE benefit players have today is growing up playing on courts with 3-pt lines. This didn’t happen until the 80’s, which explains why there weren’t too many bigs (and even guards a d forwards) who were comfortable shooting 3’s until much later. In my school, every little kid is shooting 3’s no matter how big or small they are.

  74. MBunge:
    “And it’s also possible that if Durant, or Curry, or Harden, or Kobe, or McGrady, or Iverson, or any of the other scoring savants of the 21st century played in the 1960s, Wilt may not have many records to his name.”

    If those guys played in the 60s, they wouldn’t have had ANY of the advantages in training, nutrition, and exercise they’ve all enjoyed.And that’s not even mentioning the greater level of physical contact and outright fighting that was acceptable back then.I don’t think Harden could have made it through one game in the 60s with his garbage head-jerking and intentionally seeking contact without someone at least leveling him with a hard screen.

    Mike

    Somehow I always feel less comfortable when Mike B is on my side of a debate…

  75. Z-man: I welcome anyone to pore over the film and point out flaws in Wilt’s game that suggest that it wouldn’t easily translate to being the most dominant big in the game today.

    (meaning, more dominant than Giannis, who currently holds that title in my opinion)

  76. I’d like Cooper the most of out the mid range prospects. He was the best player in college basketball at putting pressure on the rim and there was nobody particularly close to him. He will be able to get to the rim in the NBA and he can pass. Nobody currently on the Knicks roster can do those things. Cooper definitely isn’t a sure thing, but we need someone who can throw lobs to Mitch

  77. I have really grown on Grimes. He and Mobley were the only two players in the top 10 in both offensive and defensive win score, he was top ten in offensive BPM and had an overall BPM of 10.8 which is good. Grimes was also one of three players in the NCAA to make over 100 3 pointers at an over 40% clip to boot. He is also an outstanding defender. This is all on top of the fact that he led Houston to the final four and had a great, maybe the best, performance at the combine. Add to that his pedigree as a top 10 high school recruit and you have a player checking a lot of boxes.

    The big red flags are his 2pt% this year is awful and this is the first year he has been a great shooter. I look at his 2pt shooting his Sophomore year, which was quite good, and the success he found with Houston and can maybe write off a bit of his 2pt struggles as a role thing and not an indictment of his shot selection, athleticism, or skill. As for his shooting just now coming on, I would worry more except his free throw shooting also improved and he shot 3 pointers at such a high volume it doesn’t feel fluky.

    I would also be okay with Springer and would love Cooper.

    I want no part of Duarte. We were worried about Obi being old but he was a much much more dominant player than Duarte who was simply quite good despite being 3-5 years older than most of the prospects in the draft. I also don’t like Murphy he is not productive enough. Even NBA role players were usually dominant at the college level. Murphy or even Duarte at 32 is great either at 19 or 21 is a bad pick.

  78. Queta’s numbers are way above average. I hope that we take him at 32.

  79. 2. Kuminga (…) I think he’s lucky he didn’t go to college because he might’ve been exposed as a BJ Boston-esque recruiting flop.

    Yeah, you might be right. This season the G-League didn’t have a proper season, it was more like an exhibition tournament. Maybe next season the draft prospects can be properly evaluated. If indeed in college Kuminga had a BJ Boston-esque season, he’d be in the 2nd round, like BJ is. Agreed.

    3. (…) Kispert could be Joe Harris, but he could also be Malik Monk, and his upside isn’t such that I’m willing to risk that immense downside (at least not with a decent pick).

    I wasn’t so sure on this one, but now i’m going with your view, it’s a great risk and there’s a lot of other prospects that can be productive, so no Kispert for the Knicks. ;)

    4. (…) Robinson-Earl (…) I don’t know what people see in him. Seems like a tweener in the worst way and didn’t have any standout skills in college.

    Yeah, i agree, but this time i don’t know, it looks like there’s a player there with the usual caveat – “if he gets it together”. At such a low pick, i’d gamble on him.

  80. Davion Mitchell does seem like a Thibs guy, attacks the basket and plays defense.

    His shooting is very worrisome. We could be looking at Elfrid Payton 2.0, but maybe he can actually play defense this time.

  81. Z-man: Somehow I always feel less comfortable when Mike B is on my side of a debate…

    For you to feel better, i’m on your side too. And i think even Donnie might agree with you, he just doesn’t agree to call “proof” to Giannis’ finals performance. So yeah, everybody agrees that probably all-time greats would be great at any era they’d be born into, but at the same time there’s no way we can make proof of that.

  82. people have a real tough time explaining the logic behind rating davion mitchell over butler… if they even bother at all…. it’s not quite knox over sga but it’s in the neighborhood…

  83. I want no part of Mitchell, he is the player I probably want the least in the entire 1st round. He is too small for his defense to fully translate, he has one year of medium volume 3 pt shooting that was good against two years of poor shooting and mediocre free throw numbers. He plays below the rim and doesn’t draw many fouls and isn’t even a high volume scorer. Mitchell looks like a total bust to me. The other player I really don’t like is Kispert. He plays no defense and looks a bit stiff. Kispert is a poor mans Doug Mcdermott. I don’t even really want either of them at 32 much less trading up which seems the only way to get them.

    As for Queta, he is intriguing but I worry he might be a bit lumbering. His skill level is great but I think he’ll get exposed on the PNR and on switches in the NBA. I much prefer Bassey with #32 (or Jackson or Garuba but they won’t be there).

  84. Yeah I don’t want any part of Mitchell either, he doesn’t seem like he has much upside and his floor doesn’t seem very high. Just take Grimes if you want an older guard who plays defense.

  85. Ben R:
    I want no part of Mitchell, he is the player I probably want the least in the entire 1st round. He is too small for his defense to fully translate, he has one year of medium volume 3 pt shooting that was good against two years of poor shooting and mediocre free throw numbers. He plays below the rim and doesn’t draw many fouls and isn’t even a high volume scorer. Mitchell looks like a total bust to me. The other player I really don’t like is Kispert. He plays no defense and looks a bit stiff. Kispert is a poor mans Doug Mcdermott. I don’t even really want either of them at 32 much less trading up which seems the only way to get them.

    As for Queta, he is intriguing but I worry he might be a bit lumbering. His skill level is great but I think he’ll get exposed on the PNR and on switches in the NBA. I much prefer Bassey with #32 (or Jackson or Garuba but they won’t be there).

    Rudy Gobert is lumbering too. Queta is excellent at rebounding, passing, blocking, gets steals too. I believe that he can actually set a pick too. 7’4″ wingspan!

  86. In a draft like this, anything can happen. Finding the gem of a player at any spot is tough.
    Cade #1 seems obvious but he’s not LeBron or Zion.
    Mobley, Green, Suggs, Barnes & Kuminga #2-6 in some order. Potentially these are impact players.
    Everyone else in a mosh pit after.

    I’m not a professional scout but, from what I see, even they will have trouble with that next tier of players. Rose can go a number of ways depending on how things shake out. I’m thinking that the lack of free agent talent and the general youth of this team might lead to just loading up on rookies and look to be active in the mid-season trade market. Being able to put together a young, cheap, controllable bench before adding big-ticket 2022 free agents is a good way to build a winner. But I wouldn’t be surprise if Leon goes the exact opposite way and trades everything for max players to win now.

    It’s nice to know that we have resources and options that we’ve not had in what seems like decades.

  87. I don’t think there’s an obvious #1 in this draft, and I think it’s likely one or more of Mobley, Suggs or Green is better than Cunningham. Cade has a bit of Wiggins to him in the way he’s been #1 pretty much because he was #1 before the season started. (I think he’s a better prospect than Wiggins tho)

  88. i think cade’s more like brandon ingram… #s are almost even the same… the whole narrative around cade does remind me of wiggins and ayton also… they pretty much assumed the position of #1 based on narrative alone and nobody else could break thru since he didn’t fall totally flat.. but at the same time it paints over some really bad and mediocre play… i think cade is going to be in for some growing pains to start and there’s a bust factor here that usually doesn’t exist with overwhelmingly consensus #1s….

    mike schmitz rated cade #3 as overall #1 picks go the last 10 years.. and that is pretty indicative of how far the narrative has gone…

  89. I know the track record of older lottery picks isn’t great (which is another reason to worry about Obi’s future, I guess), but how about older 22 and 23-year-olds who are taken in the late teens or 20s?

    I guess the obvious comparison is Malcolm Brogdon, who went in the 2nd round. Both were older players in the draft (Brogdon was 23,5 years old in the draft), with good size (6-5 for Brogdon, 6-6 for Duarte) and good shooting numbers (50-39-90 for Brogdon, 63-42-81 for Duarte). I guess both have some sort of defensive reputation in college, being all-denfense in their conferences, although Brogdon was DPOY of his conference.

    I know very little about NCAA and draft, and I don’t know if there is a difference in level of competition between PAC-12 and ACC. Also, I have no idea about the style of play of their respective teams and their role in their team. I worry a little that Brogdon have a significantly larger wingspan (6-10 vs 6-7) and that a higher FT% might be more indicative of shooting translating to the NBA.

    Definitely, I would not trade up for him… but I guess it is fine if we draft him at one of our 1st round picks.

  90. Interesting bit about Kawhi – but crazy as it is to say, i can’t say I’m too hot on signing him if he wants to come here. Already 30, probably will miss much of the year with the ACL…

    Knicks doing a good job disguising their intentions – they’ve now been tied to like 20 players. They’re trading up, they’re working out guys in the late 20s (are we trading down?), etc.

    My guess is they are trying to get ahead of the Warriors to get someone like Duarte or Kispert. I don’t imagine they are trading up to get a small guard like Mitchell.

    Agree with above that I think I’d rather stick at 19 and 21 and draft someone like Grimes or Murphy. Possible that Duarte and Kispert have higher floors but I imagine the chances of one of the combo of Grimes OR Murphy succeeding are greater than the chances of just one of Duarte or Kispert.

    That said – Duarte and Kispert’s numbers are pretty nuts. Duarte – 63% 2P%, 43% from 3. Kispert similar

  91. djphan: mike schmitz rated cade #3 as overall #1 picks go the last 10 years.. and that is pretty indicative of how far the narrative has gone…

    There’ve been a lot of bad #1’s in the last 10 years (Bennett, Wiggins, Fultz), but how can that be? Just on the top of my head, he can’t be a better prospect than Zion, Kyrie and KAT!

  92. Comparing players from different eras ain’t provable and numbers don’t do much justice also since there are many different factors so my opinion on these kinds of comparisons is that the most important thing is The Will to Prevail.

    For example a barefoot runner who wins the Olympic gold medal in the marathon would be my number one choice on any era at Marathon running.

  93. There’ve been a lot of bad #1’s in the last 10 years (Bennett, Wiggins, Fultz), but how can that be? Just on the top of my head, he can’t be a better prospect than Zion, Kyrie and KAT!

    Cade was probably hyped to be better than all of them except Simmons.. AD.. Kyrie.. Fultz and Wiggins…. but if you take into account the freshman year they had… i can’t see how you rate him ahead of Zion.. KAT… Kyrie and AD under any circumstances… even Simmons.. Edwards.. and Wall should be clear that they were better prospects…. to me he’s probably on par with Ayton and quite similar in terms of narrative vs performance goes…

    and maybe Cade ends up being the third best… but as it stands the argument is kind of weak that he’s the third best prospect…

  94. I do everything I can to make my board with a veil of ignorance approach i.e. don’t allow it to be affected by consensus, mocks, etc., but I’m inevitably influenced so here are a few things I think might be different if I had truly never seen a mock:

    -Davion Mitchell might be even lower (have him 24th). I enjoyed watching him in March but the numbers paint a picture of a guy who truly couldn’t make much of an impact until he was older than most of his competition. Even as a senior-aged junior, he still struggled from the line so there’s no reason to believe in his mirage of a 3PT%. When you take into account his measurables it’s hard to believe there aren’t objectively better options pretty much throughout the first round.

    -Cade might be a little lower (have him 3rd). I think he’s legitimately a very good prospect, but take away his recruiting rank, reputation, etc. and I think you’re looking at someone people are hoping can turn into, say, Khris Middleton as opposed to the Luka/Simmons with a jumper comparisons. Middleton would of course be a great get at any point in the draft so again I’m not begrudging Cade, I just wish the discussion around him was a bit more level-headed.

    -Cam Thomas might be higher (have him 20th). The chances that we look back at this draft and say “so, everyone just let arguably the best scorer in the whole draft who was also a freshman slip, that was kinda weird huh” are kind of high right?

  95. Interesting explanations TNFH.

    Not watching NCAA I always defer to you, DJPhan and others here for prospects evaluation,
    many thanks to everyone that share their thoughts on it.

    I’m fascinated by how different the views on a player can be,
    just in the last few days we had very different takes on Cooper, Kispert, Duarte, Mitchell and so on.

    It shows how difficult must be, with the rare exception for the “true blue chip”, to find consensus in a real draft room, when your choices can reverberate for years.

    Fun and compelling stuff, let’s go on with it, the clock is ticking…

  96. Meanwhile, if this was a Rangers blog we would have grilled Drury uncessantly and probably the server would have shut down…

  97. Max:
    Meanwhile, if this was a Rangers blog we would have grilled Drury uncessantly and probably the server would have shut down…

    i frequent a rangers blog…and drury is getting hammered…and dolan and sather are as well…

  98. pepper: i frequent a rangers blog…and drury is getting hammered…and dolan and sather are as well…

    I clearly see Dolan’s (and Sather) hands behind Blueshirts’ last moves, starting of course with the President/GM/Coach firing, and I’m worried he will put the same unnecessary pressure on our FO, causing a flurry of panic moves forced by his unreasonable expectations.

    I hope Leon & Co. can slip unscathed and made “their” choices, be them right or wrong.

  99. I’ve mentioned this before but for the people who are so against the Knicks trading up and prefer them using both 1st rd picks, I have no clue who they should or shouldn’t draft but I will say if they have their sights on someone particular and are willing to trade up for him that means at least that player will be expected to contribute right away and will most likely be given plenty of opportunity to do so. If they stay at 19 and 21 I doubt both picks will be in the rotation or heck neither might even make the rotation.

    So again if we really want to see a rookie next year contribute and show they will be part of the young core moving forward I think there is a much better chance of that happening if the Knicks trade up for a player than stay at 19 and 21. Maybe I’m wrong but I just don’t see how this team is going to plan on having a couple of rookies in the rotation next year.

  100. I do not agree. Good teams make room for rookies in their rotations all the time. Only four rookies drafted in the 1st round last year played less than 600 minutes, so that bodes well for whoever we draft being in the rotation. If we make playing our young guys a priority and don’t give Thibs a choice in benching them we should be able to get all three of our top picks in the rotation. If we drafted something like Cooper/Butler + Springer/Grimes + Bassey/Queta then I see no reason all three of those players shouldn’t be in our rotation.

    Remember winning next season isn’t the only objective it is winning plus future development. Philly, Memphis, and Utah are all teams that are probably better than us and they played 2nd round picks in their rotation last year. There is no excuse for us not to play our rookies.

  101. If they stay at 19 and 21 I doubt both picks will be in the rotation or heck neither might even make the rotation.

    again we have at least five spots open in the rotation…. and probably something like 7 spots on the roster open.. there’s no way to fill them all with quality free agents and keep a max slot open…. and if you’re filling with vets on one year deals then you should be using your draft picks instead….

    you could still use one year deals and use your draft picks also and then play whoever wins the job in training camp… and either release the vet or send the pick to the gleague…. this idea that there’s no room for multiple draft picks on the roster is just not paying attention to the current situation….

  102. Of course there is currently room on the roster for 3 draft picks but there is no chance in hell the Knicks who were the 4th seed last year and I’m pretty sure at the very least have every intention to make the Top 6 again will go into next season relying on 3 rookies in the rotation especially rookies picked late in the 1st rd, early 2nd rd who at those picks are not guaranteed to even be marginal NBA players.

    Hey maybe they do stand pat and use all their draft picks this year and they actually all contribute next season but all I’m saying is that is a very low chance of realistically happening.

  103. I’m pretty sure at the very least have every intention to make the Top 6 again will go into next season relying on 3 rookies in the rotation especially rookies picked late in the 1st rd, early 2nd rd who at those picks are not guaranteed to even be marginal NBA players.

    so instead who would we be relying on? austin rivers?

    we essentially punted on the 35th pick this past year in favor of austin rivers…. and unless you want to blow all your cap space on free agents this year and not leave a max slot open… then it’s going to be austin rivers or someone like him again….

    and are you saying you’d rather have austin rivers than whoever a late first or early 2nd? if you don’t believe in your ability to get good players in a supposed deep draft .. then you really have no business with draft picks in the first place…. and in that case you should trade them… but that’s usually because it’s a situation where you already have a deep roster and have no room for a guy to crack the rotation even if he is good….

    who is on our roster that’s stopping a pick from being successful? who would you be signing that would make your picks irrelevant? relying on FA to fill your rotation is an expensive endeavour…

  104. BigBlueAL: Hey maybe they do stand pat and use all their draft picks this year and they actually all contribute next season but all I’m saying is that is a very low chance of realistically happening.

    This is especially true in the case of Thibs, who only cares about winning and will not play rookies for the sake of playing them. But the G-League being a real thing again does keep the possibility open that they will use both first rounders.

  105. No one is opposed to trading up in principle. There are obviously times in which it can make sense. The problem is in the context of this draft specifically it’s simply very hard to imagine a realistic trade up that makes sense. For all potential targets there’s a valid “are we sure he’s better than [player who will likely be available at 19/21]?” question.

    Even if your sole criteria is “who is most likely to help us next season?,” the more NBA-ready prospects are actually slated to go around where we’re picking as opposed to the late lottery (where we might realistically be able to land in a trade up). Who seems more likely to play meaningful minutes on a good team next year, Jared Butler or Keon Johnson? Chris Duarte or James Bouknight? I could go on but you get the point.

    I’ve identified Giddey as someone I think would be worth some combination of 19/21/32, but sadly it seems the teams picking higher than us have as well and are thus going to be drafting him out of our trade up range. I’m open to changing my mind on this but I’m just not seeing a target who quite frankly even comes close to being worth surrendering the value that comes with multiple darts.

  106. @djphan,
    We signed Rivers to a near minimum contract and ended up not even hitting the salary floor.

    If we commit to competing with 1yr contracts, we can absolutely find players better than Austin Rivers. And no, the 19, 21, & 32 picks are not likely to be better than 1yr vets.

    If we want to sign LaVine or Beal next year, then we need to be competitive. Giving significant minutes to anyone, let alone everyone, projected where we draft is not going to convince a player to sign here. If we’re punting on that plan, then fine. But I don’t think we are or necessarily want to.

  107. thenoblefacehumper: Davion Mitchell might be even lower (have him 24th). I enjoyed watching him in March but the numbers paint a picture of a guy who truly couldn’t make much of an impact until he was older than most of his competition. Even as a senior-aged junior, he still struggled from the line so there’s no reason to believe in his mirage of a 3PT%. When you take into account his measurables it’s hard to believe there aren’t objectively better options pretty much throughout the first round.

    I guess this is the guy we will disagree on this year. Not that I think he will be a star, but the FT shooting means very little, except that he didn’t get to the line enough. I don’t see how getting better over his college career is a bad thing, he’s hyper-competitive and worked on his game and the results were very evident. He has a great motor, is as tough as nails, and looks ready to play NBA-level defense from day 1. He’s gotta work on the FTs and drawing fouls, but those are two good problems to have given his shooting %s at all levels.

  108. i don’t get the idea of trying to lure a big FA to a team with half it’s rotation not returning… a big FA is coming to a team for the guys that are actually going to be on the team… the one year vets are largely irrelevant…

    If we commit to competing with 1yr contracts, we can absolutely find players better than Austin Rivers. And no, the 19, 21, & 32 picks are not likely to be better than 1yr vets.

    i’m curious to know who these guys are…. and besides that point…. sooner or later you need to fill the roster with bodies and cycling through more than half the roster with one year deals isn’t a sustainable strategy especially when you plan to be capped out in one more summer….

    it’s one thing if we’re using these late firsts in a deal for james harden… or beal or whoever… it’s another entirely that we want to burn these picks in favor of some random FA…. that’s a very expensive trade to be doing on a regular basis…

  109. **i’m curious to know who these guys are…. and besides that point…. sooner or later you need to fill the roster with bodies and cycling through more than half the roster with one year deals isn’t a sustainable strategy especially when you plan to be capped out in one more summer….**

    Come on, basically every FA is going to be better than Rivers and certainly better than a random late 1st draft pick. We’re generally going that our late 1st picks end up worthy of becoming a random vet FA.

    And we still have a surplus of picks this draft after we trade 2 for 1 and enough picks in the next 4 years to fill an entire roster. We will have zero issues creating a sustainable roster.

    And I do believe the late lotto picks are more valuable than 19 & 21. Right now we look like we’ll have our choice between a bunch of so-so combo guards or Cs.

  110. I like who will potentially be available at 19,21 and 32.

    We could hit it big.

  111. If we want to sign LaVine or Beal next year, then we need to be competitive. Giving significant minutes to anyone, let alone everyone, projected where we draft is not going to convince a player to sign here. If we’re punting on that plan, then fine. But I don’t think we are or necessarily want to.

    But it’s not like we’re going to go 15 deep anyway! the 12th-15th men (not to mention the two-way slots) rarely play on any team, let alone a Thibs coached team. The question is should those spots go to the Austin Rivers of the world, or to prospects.

    Philly is exponentially better than us and still thought the cost-benefit analysis worked out in favor of rostering Maxey, Isaiah Joe, and Paul Reed. Maxey of course was fully in their rotation, but the latter two barely did for the simple reason that the 14th and 15th men on a roster rarely play whether they’re recent draft picks or veterans. The question is what’s a better way to utilize those fringe roster spots, with recent draft picks or veterans? Since neither will play much anyway, I think the cost/benefit analysis pretty clearly cuts in favor of the former.

  112. thenoblefacehumper: But it’s not like we’re going to go 15 deep anyway! the 12th-15th men (not to mention the two-way slots) rarely play on any team, let alone a Thibs coached team. The question is should those spots go to the Austin Rivers of the world, or to prospects.

    Philly is exponentially better than us and still thought the cost-benefit analysis worked out in favor of rostering Maxey, Isaiah Joe, and Paul Reed. Maxey of course was fully in their rotation, but the latter two barely did for the simple reason that the 14th and 15th men on a roster rarely play whether they’re recent draft picks or veterans. The question is what’s a better way to utilize those fringe roster spots, with recent draft picks or veterans? Since neither will play much anyway, I think the cost/benefit analysis pretty clearly cuts in favor of the former.

    100% agree with this, and I doubt that roster spots are factoring in to the decision-making at all. My guess is that if we don’t trade the picks for a star player (which would make the discussion moot) then we would only trade up to get a player that mgmt concludes has a better chance of being an impact player. tnfh has consistently said that he would trade up for Giddey, and my guess is that Rose et. al. are in the same mindset, just not about the same player.

    It’s almost a certainty that the top 7 picks are out of reach, then it becomes more about the package. Would 19, 21, 32 and the 2023 top-10 protected Dallas pick get us to #8? How high would #19 either Mitch, IQ or Obi get us? I’m not advocating, just putting out possibilities that could move us higher than we can get with just this year’s picks.

    My hope is that we either stand pat or make one simple 2-for-1 trade up. I think there are surely 21 players in this draft that have rotation potential, and some guys like Jackson, Wagner, Senguin, Johnson, Jones and Garuba don’t really interest me, so there are about 10 guys that would make me happy at 19/21 and two of them are guaranteed to be there.

  113. Come on, basically every FA is going to be better than Rivers and certainly better than a random late 1st draft pick. We’re generally going that our late 1st picks end up worthy of becoming a random vet FA.

    You can take a look at who signed for one-year deals last year.. and it’s filled with a)ring chasing vets or b)players who have one-foot out the door of the league…

    we have been using this strategy for the last.. 3-4 years? look at the guys who passed through for us… michael beasley? mario hezonja? wayne ellington? who else signed to a one year deal around the league? kent bazemore? carmelo anthony? jared dudley? langston galloway? noah vonleh? thon maker? these guys are better than whoever you plan to pick as a late first? and you plan to continually dip into this pool every year?

    And we still have a surplus of picks this draft after we trade 2 for 1 and enough picks in the next 4 years to fill an entire roster. We will have zero issues creating a sustainable roster.

    No we do not…

    2021 Roster
    1. Julius Randle
    2. RJ Barrett
    3. Mitch Robinson
    4. Immanuel Quickley
    5. Obi Toppin
    6. PG1 vet via FA/Trade mulityear deal
    7. SF1 vet via FA/Trade mulityear deal
    8;. PG2 vet via FA(likely one year deal)
    9. SF2 vet via FA (likely one year deal)
    10. 2021 draft pick
    11. Norvelle Pelle
    12. Kevin Knox
    13. Luca Vildoza
    14. vet – one year deal
    15. vet – one year deal

    2022 roster
    1. Julius Randle (assume we resign)
    2. RJ Barrett
    3. Mitch Robinson (assume we resign)
    4. Immanuel Quickley
    5. Obi Toppin
    6. PG1 vet via FA/Trade mulityear deal
    7. SF1 vet via FA/Trade mulityear deal
    8;. 2021 draft pick
    9. 2022 draft pick
    aaaaand that’s it…

    you want to fill a max slot it’s likely you’re only handing out one multiyear deal this year anyway…. and so how are you filling 5 other slots when you’re capped out every year after this?

  114. the whole idea of teams trading late firsts is usually because they already have roster spaces taken up by vets ON MULTIYEAR CONTRACTS… and hence can’t be moved or the draft pick has a low chance of breaking through the rotation… even still the lakers found a way to use guys like horton-tucker… the sixers with maxey this year and thybulle the year before… these are actual contenders with roster spots filled with actual nba players…

    it is quite arrogant to say that this team smelled success for one year with half it’s rotation not returning that it doesn’t have uses for its extra draft picks when it has tons of roster spots…. i’m not denying that we may trade/incinerate our picks or that it is likely to happen… but it just makes zero sense….

  115. From Davion Mitchell’s wikipedia page:
    “During his redshirt year, he improved his all-around game and studied film on guards like Kyle Lowry and Jalen Brunson… [in 2020-21] He received the Naismith Defensive Player of the Year Award, NABC Defensive Player of the Year and the Lefty Driesell Award as the top defensive player in the nation.”

    The 3pt shot looks real to me, as does the ability to create space off the dribble and score in the paint with both hands. He improved his offensive game through hard work and he already is a badass on D. While I wouldn’t necessarily trade up for him, if they do I won’t cry about it. Guys like him can play on my team any time.

  116. I guess I differ with the opinion that trading up or trading picks for someone like Sexton is incinerating the picks. Unlike some here who think it is an absolute no-brainer to keep all the picks while I don’t mind if they do so I certainly don’t think trading up for a specific player they really like or trading picks for Sexton is a horrible, short-sighted move.

  117. **But it’s not like we’re going to go 15 deep anyway! the 12th-15th men (not to mention the two-way slots) rarely play on any team, let alone a Thibs coached team. The question is should those spots go to the Austin Rivers of the world, or to prospects.**

    16 Pick
    15 Pelle
    14 Pick
    13 Pick
    12 Pick
    11 Knox
    10 Vildoza

    That’s assuming pick 58 signs a 2-way, we’re already depending on at least 1 rookie being a rotation player, 2 if anyone gets injured.

    Unless you really trust Pelle or know Vildoza can cut it, you’re taking a lot of risks.

    @djphan,
    What happened to Vildoza, Pelle, and our other draft picks in 2022?

    You’re missing 2022 2nd rd pick & our other 2 2021 draft picks. We have 4 picks this year. If we trade 2 for 1, we still have 3 picks.

    We also have the room exception. By my count that’s 6 players that evaporated from your 2022 roster. That’s a 15 man roster.

  118. And really, we can’t do the same thing we did the last 2 years that netted us IQ & a 4th seed?

    We went into last season with a ton of caproom, if we want to overpay players on 1yr deals we can sign better players.

  119. And looking at last year, Rivers finished with a -2.2 BPM.

    Of picks 19-30, half played better & half played worse with 1 player stashed overseas.

    Of the 30 picks in the 2nd rd, only a handful were better and usually not by much.

    You see the same thing looking back to the 2019 draft.

  120. Yeah, but the guys you draft are probably going to improve on their crummy BPM after their rookie years. Austin Rivers not so much.

  121. I guess I differ with the opinion that trading up or trading picks for someone like Sexton is incinerating the picks.

    Well, these are very different things and I am on the record as being tepidly in favor of the latter.

  122. I don’t think Austin Rivers was an either/or situation. Bottom line is, we can easily roster 3 draft picks (#58 is almost certainly a g-league scrub) and sign plenty of 1-year guys.

  123. 16 Pick
    15 Pelle
    14 Pick
    13 Pick
    12 Pick
    11 Knox
    10 Vildoza

    It is definitely not a priority to me to roster Knox and/or Pelle (who is 28). I think it would be a god awful use of assets to prioritize keeping Pelle over, say, Charles Bassey, and Knox over Josh Christopher.

    Pelle can be cut painlessly while Knox has another year under contract, but I think we could find someone who would take Knox for free if need be. I think even a second-rounder on a fresh rookie-scale deal has a better ROI than one more year of Kevin Knox at this point.

  124. **Yeah, but the guys you draft are probably going to improve on their crummy BPM after their rookie years. Austin Rivers not so much.**

    I keep trying to find a chart with these numbers for ultimate outcomes. The closest I can find is an outdated 82games.com chart that says ~60% will be deep bench players or busts. But I think they use PER or something outdated.

    If you just scroll through BKRef drafts there’s a lot of duds in there too. Some very good picks, so maybe it’s worth the 2 shots, but you’re absolutely defying the odds if you get 2 good players.

  125. What happened to Vildoza, Pelle, and our other draft picks in 2022?

    You’re missing 2022 2nd rd pick & our other 2 2021 draft picks. We have 4 picks this year. If we trade 2 for 1, we still have 3 picks.

    Those are all non-guaranteed deals…. and saying that Vildoza and Pelle will make the roster in 2022… as well as the 58th pick…. that’s a pretty large assumption.. i also assume the 32nd pick gets evaporated also in a trade up because 19 and 21 alone isn’t getting you too far… and the 2022 2nd rd pick making the roster is an iffy proposition if we’re so against rookies on this squad right?

    i mean the roster can be filled however you want… if we want we could probably sign Theo Pinson to perpetual one-year deals.. that doens’t mean it’s what you want to do…. the 10-15 spots in a lot of cases need to fill in for mistakes you made in free agency or the draft or injury.. that’s where a lot of high functioning organizations setup their depth… how do you think toronto developed Siakam.. FVV.. Boucher… Watanabe… Delon Wright? and they were a regular playoff team that continually replenished the roster through the draft and taking flyers on guys towards the end of the roster…

    just compare the one year vet player pool vs the late first pool…. you MIGHT beat out the average late first in one season… but it’s going to be pretty tough to beat them EVERY year especially when they are more expensive AND older AND the fact that you CAN’T EVEN RESIGN them in the event they do work out… all your upside just gets lopped off in those deals as we’re witnessing firsthand now…

    seriously the one year vet market doesn’t present ANY upside whatsoever… it’s treading water.. gambling on a player who’s about to head overseas or retire… or gambling on a big year so that they can sign a big contract ELSEWHERE… there’s really nothing in it for us other than the immediate impact.. and we got it but that’s it..

  126. At 32 you’re usually just looking for a player who can stick, Pelle seems like that sort of player. There’s definitely more upside in a draft pick, but Pelle has looked capable of being a very good defender on the cheap.

    Knox, we can absolutely cut him in my book. But he’s a 1st rd pick so it’s just not going to happen.

    Idk when Pelle’s contract becomes guaranteed but ideally we could get through a good bit of training camp before making a decision, if we do keep all 4 picks.

  127. and the only reason we went the one year vet route was because we had a roster devoid of talent and the picks to replenish the roster… the picks we did have languished and became husks… and so we wanted to be competitive so we took a bunch of flyers on guys towards that goal…

    if you’re trading picks for actual top level talent.. if the reason you want to trade picks is because you think everyone where you’re picking is terrible and the guys you’re targeting is a real top flight guy… you should do that.. you should not trade picks because ‘you cannot play three rookies’ especially when you have all these roster spots open… that’s the type of thing you say as you’re rearranging chairs on the titanic….

  128. One mitigating factor re: filling out the roster with FAs is that the league is getting saturated with talent. The NBA hasn’t had expansion for a long time (Brian and I have discussed this over the last couple of years, he’s for it, I’m against it) and lost of those 11-15 guys are potentially good players, not to mention 2-way G-Leaguers, regular G-Leaguers and Non-American team guys like Vildoza. Capped out teams can’t pay guys in the back ends of their rotations what they are worth or play them enough minutes to keep them happy. There are likely to be plenty of bargains like Burks and Noel out there.

  129. I’m saying if we use our surplus of picks intelligently, we can compete today and tomorrow. If the cost of moving up is 3 picks, I’m not making that trade.

    If a more competitive team can net us better FAs before we max out our salary cap, that improves our future. If there’s a chance Beal or LaVine goes to FA & signs with us, that does more for the future of our team.

    I don’t advocate for trading picks needlessly, but in our current situation we can afford to trade up if there’s a target we like. We have 4 picks, Vildoza, and Pelle. We don’t need all 4 picks. Another year, I’d keep them but this year is our last shot to convince 2022 FAs we’re a better choice than another team.

    If we end up signing Ball this year and Lowry on a 2yr deal, then by all means we should absolutely keep the picks.

  130. Pelle played a total of 52 minutes for the Knicks this season. I’d bet good money he won’t be on the roster next season.

  131. And yeah, obviously you don’t make the trade up unless you think someone at 13 or 14 is better. You’re not doing it solely to clear roster space.

  132. If a more competitive team can net us better FAs before we max out our salary cap, that improves our future. If there’s a chance Beal or LaVine goes to FA & signs with us, that does more for the future of our team.

    competing with a team when half of it will be gone the next year is not going to lure them over… i don’t think they’re stupid… if they come it will be because of our top flight talent OR that we have a lot of talent ALREADY LOCKED IN is another…

    I don’t advocate for trading picks needlessly, but in our current situation we can afford to trade up if there’s a target we like. We have 4 picks, Vildoza, and Pelle. We don’t need all 4 picks.

    and this is what i’m saying is really offkey… Luca Vildoza and Norvelle Pelle should not be driving any kind of decision about your draft picks whatsoever… this is like trading the #19 pick in the 2015 draft because we had Kevin Seraphin and Sasha Vujacic all locked up…

    there is no ‘we can afford to trade up’ because we are relying on a guy who played zero nba minutes because we’re afraid of drafting a guy who played zero nba minutes… and then trusting another guy who’s 28 and played 100 minutes over a guy who hasn’t played any…

    that does not compute!

  133. My whole point is that we’re carrying 5 rookies into the season if we make all 4 picks. We’re not going to find minutes for all 5 of them. We will need at least 1 of them to give us good minutes off the bench when someone gets injured.

    And yes, you do it because you think pick 13 or 14 is better than 21. You’re not punting on a pick you’re trying to find more value from your picks. You can take the risk of 1 less lottery ticket because you already have 5 lotto tickets.

  134. The point of FAs isn’t for them to be stars but to prevent a situation where Kevin Knox is giving you 1000 min.

    A max player comes here for RJ/Randle/IQ/Mitch and our other longterm pieces. It’s not about finding excellent vet FAs, it’s about finding players who don’t make our core look like crap.

  135. My whole point is that we’re carrying 5 rookies into the season if we make all 4 picks. We’re not going to find minutes for all 5 of them.

    That’s why you have the gleague… and if they’re good enough why can’t you play them? we came off a season where we played two rookies major rotation minutes… a second year player was second on the team in minutes and we played knox and frank some in the rotation when they were absolutely terrible… and that’s when we actually had vets on the team….

    if you want to go the one year vet route… there’s nothing stopping us from doing that AND keeping the picks… in fact that’s probably the optimal approach to keep cap space open for next year… you can let the rookies earn it and send them to the gleague if they’re not up to par and play all the vets you want… the problem arises is not even giving them an opportunity and RELYING on one year vets…

    you’re basically saying the core as it stands now is good enough.. and that couldn’t be further from the truth… we need more talent… and draft picks are the easiest way to get it…

  136. I’d much rather be paying Quentin Grimes and Charles Bassey rookie contracts than giving money to interchangeable NBA veterans. I don’t even think it’s all that controversial an opinion considering we’re going to be adding interchangeable NBA vets regardless so we might as well have cost controlled assets. You didn’t hire Walt Perrin away from Utah to neuter him in the draft. Let him pick the guys he wants, even if WorldWide Wes is screaming shirtless.

    Also, Quentin Grimes is absolutely a guy I’m hoping the Knicks draft. He got some bad advice as a high schooler and signed to Kansas, a program that does nothing to prepare guys for the NBA, despite being a top 10 recruit. This year he put that top end talent together and was clearly one of the five best players in college basketball on a team that probably won’t see another starter drafted, and he powered those guys to a Final Four run. He’s everything I want to see out of a shooting guard, even if he’s an inch or two short of prototypical.

  137. I also like Grimes more than some of the players mocked currently around the Knicks picks on nbadraft.net. Dosunmu and Sengun are also players I’m interested in, and I would trade up for Giddy if I could.

  138. Agree I’d rather use at least 19 and 21 on players. We’re not getting much past 13 if we package those two unless we throw maybe 19/21/32 and in that case maybe just maybe we get to 11 or so. Pretty much every draft person has said the draft i pretty flat after the lottery until 35-40 or so, better to get more dart throws. We’ve got almost certainly at least 2-3 spots on the roster that were completely unused last year or were taken up by guys who are leaving.

    Would be happy to throw 19/21/32 and whatever else for Bradley Beal of course, but that doesn’t feel likely.

    I am sure I just lack the imagination, but I don’t understand how Golden State gets Beal unless they trade one of Draymond/Steph/Klay which would of course defeat the purpose. They are obviously way over the cap, and the only other “tradeable” pieces are Wiggins, Wiseman, and Looney. Wiseman and Looney only get you to about $15MM, and Looney is a negative asset. Wiggins would probably require 2 more first round picks. So is the play Wiseman, Wiggins, 7, 14, and 2 more picks (as far as out as possible ie. When GS stinks and everyone is old)? Would be hard to turn that down if I’m the Wizards.

  139. For the life of me I can’t understand what I’m missing on Quentin Grimes that he’s not a lottery pick but Davion Mitchell is. The finishing and 2PT% are concerning but the kid is just a lights out shooter that can absolutely put the ball on the floor and make something happen. I’d draft Grimes and Butler at 19 and 21 and never look back.

    Yeah, count me out on trading up. Let Trey Murphy and Chris Duarte rise and push some great prospects our way. We could leave this draft with Butler, Grimes, and Bassey and I’d be very happy with that outcome.

  140. Berman of the Post:

    Team France tweeted Frank Ntilikina out today vs. USA Olympic Team with leg injury.

  141. For the life of me I can’t understand what I’m missing on Quentin Grimes that he’s not a lottery pick but Davion Mitchell is.

    I think Grimes and Mitchell do carry similar grades in my book…. Grimes with an advantage on age and consistent shooting.. Mitchell with the advantage with his dribble drive game… Mitchell’s probably a slightly better bet to succeed due to that but i don’t see a gaping chasm between them…. and i think both are fringe 1st/ 2nd rd picks…

    https://twitter.com/BlazersBySagar/status/1419057414280650754?s=19

    Woj: “No. 9 with the Kings and No. 10 with New Orleans, I think both those picks are very much in-play. New Orleans, they’re gonna try and get, certainly Bledsoe’s contract off, and we’ll see what they do with Adams. … No one’s just taking that Bledsoe deal off [their] hands.”

    This seems like our target in a trade up but I don’t see how we beat out a team like OKC…. I’m lukewarm on the Bledsoe + 10th because i’m hesitant on who you would even target up there… or maybe you package 10 + 32 + 19 or 21 (one of those picks would probably move in the Bledsoe deal) to move up a few more spots to get Bouknight but i honestly don’t see that happening…

    I have no idea what the Kings would want in a move up.. probably a vet of some sort because i highly doubt they would want even more picks if they’re looking to move out even though they should probably entertain that idea…

  142. Grimes has some glaring weaknesses to his game. Zero left hand, loose dribble, no 2pt game whatsoever. I would WAY rather have Mitchell than him, it’s not even in the same area code.

  143. I’ve also kind of warmed up to the idea of Lonzo Ball.. but only as a sg… i think he has a lot of deficiencies in the half court in the pnr but someone who can give you 120% of what bullock gave I think is not a terrible idea… he’ll help in transition… he’ll help find those hard to reach points with enough ball and player movement… and maybe there’s still some upside if he can develop a midrange/floater game and not just camp out on the 3pt line.. but as is.. he’s a good player it’s just an awkward fit in most lineups…. if it’s ~20mm AAV i can live with it.. 25mm I’m throwing up in my mouth a little…

    I’m also kind of warming up to the idea of Collin Sexton… but only if we’re grabbing Lonzo also.. it’s kind of ironic because it makes a lot more sense that Cleveland and New Orleans hook up on a deal for Lonzo and Sexton than it does for us….

    and i’m warming up to the idea of both of them because with all these Beal rumors and Lavine resigning speculation… it’s very possible that there might not be much in terms of FA in 2022 either…. and Ball + Sexton might really be the best we can do over these next couple of summers…. and with Sexton’s restricted FA next summer we do have the option to eject should someone come available .. although we probably have jettison some contracts to fit a max slot….

  144. “That’s why you have the gleague… “

    The Knicks don’t need to develop role players over time. Last year they demonstrated they could find veteran role players at reasonable prices.

    The Knicks have to maximize the chances of getting an all star caliber player.

    To do that when you are outside the top few lottery picks, you generally have to combine picks to move up or use picks and players in a trade. If you can’t move up or there is no one you want to target then maybe you want to or have to use the shotgun approach. But no way should we be using any draft picks to select players to stick in the G league hoping they eventually become role players. That’s a waste.

  145. I don’t think of Pelle at all but Vildoza I do. I don’t think he’s a PG1 but he could be a PG2 that gets good minutes. Everything I’ve seen of him has been good. I want to see him play more. He has range, court vision and a handle but he seems like an opportunistic defender but may need work with his on-ball D.
    I have confidence in 6 out of the 8 signed players as rotation players. Knox and Pelle being on the outside. That leaves 4 rotation players to add. In my opinion we still need a starting wing next to RJ, a starting lead guard a backup center and another wing. Everything else is gravy.

    I want to compete. Doing so means we need 2 of the 4 players we add to have Allstar potential. I think one comes as a free agent signing and the other via a trade. The trade might come draft night so I’m thinking the Knicks might not draft anyone. I can see 3 firsts being traded away. The two this year and a future plus Knox to make a splash deal. Maybe that’s why I’m not so focused on the draft. I think nothing has gotten done because of player injuries during the Olympics.

  146. People need to understand that the only reason Lonzo Ball was on the perimeter shooting 3s and playing off the ball a lot last year was because Stan VanGundy was trying to turn Zion and Ingram into point forwards. It wasn’t because Ball is not a PG. in fact, the reason there was speculation about Ball wanting out to begin with is that he and Lavar did not like his role on New Orleans. They both believe he’s a PG. You should ignore all his stats and everything you saw from last year other than maybe his 3 point shooting. If Ball decides to stay in New Orleans it could very well party be because SVG is out and the new coach is going allow him to be the PG.

  147. I am not against trading up for a few reasons. Higher draft picks have more trade value on the market, so when/if we trade for a star, we will have more ammo with a recent #9 versus a recent #19, regardless of their play. Second, I trust our staff would move up for a reason — that they like a guy in the lottery better than the pool of guys in the late first round.

    I’m also not against drafting 3 guys versus 2, but I assume they will try to optimize their value in this draft no matter which route they choose. Also, there will be some great undrafted guys to jump on as g-league options.

  148. I’m good with Ball (again, with the added benefit that he could be instrumental in recruiting LaMelo when he wants out of CHA) because he can pass, defend, and score. I’m neutral to slightly negative on Sexton, mostly because I like the intrigue of a draft pick more than a guy whose team is trying to dump him with a rep for pissing off teammates. What would really bum me out is if we walk away from the draft without a top-21 pick.

    As to Bledsoe, sure, if he comes attached with a #10 pick, sign me up!

  149. Relative to draft hype and likely draft position:

    Guys I love:
    Cade
    Green
    Kuminga
    Giddy
    Springer
    Mitchell
    Duarte
    Mann

    Guys I like but don’t love:
    Suggs (sort of in between with him, the outside shooting bothers me)
    Mobley
    Moody
    K Johnson
    Butler
    Cooper
    Kispert
    Thomas
    Z Williams
    Murphy
    McBride

    Guys I don’t like:
    Bouknight
    Barnes
    Jackson
    Garuba
    Senguen
    Wagner
    J Johnson
    Jones
    Dosunmu

  150. I’m stunned by France beating USA in the Olympics even if it doesn’t preclude the USA from winning gold,
    the games you must not lose are the head-to-head ones after the round robin.

    Draft: I’m increasingly leaning toward getting players and not projects with our picks, Frank, Knox and the pandemic destroyed my patience reserve…
    I’ve had enough of “if he does this he can become that” or “if he does that he can become this”, I want someone who could play from game 1, IQ-style.

  151. Keon is super-athletic but doesn’t seem to have much consistency on the offensive end. He seems like at best a backup for RJ for the next couple of years. I don’t see the reason to take him if other more skilled 2-way players are on the board. But the upside is tantalizing for sure.

  152. But no way should we be using any draft picks to select players to stick in the G league hoping they eventually become role players. That’s a waste.

    For sure man.

  153. I am pretty confused as to why we’re talking about Norvel Pelle. We signed this guy because like 4 other centers got injured. He played 52 minutes for us. Charles Bassey and Neemias Queta will probably be better than him in the NBA next season. We should thank him for his services and move on.

  154. Early Bird:
    Apparently Frank is the invisible 6th man

    Frankie was only trying to help out Team USA by not playing. He’s torn between two continents.

  155. thenoblefacehumper:
    I am pretty confused as to why we’re talking about Norvel Pelle. We signed this guy because like 4 other centers got injured. He played 52 minutes for us. Charles Bassey and Neemias Queta will probably be better than him in the NBA next season. We should thank him for his services and move on.

    Have you looked at Queta’s numbers? They’re off the charts in multiple categories. I think that Taj would be a perfect mentor for him because he’s a strong dude who can set a hard pick too.

  156. I don’t love Keon Johnson at all–I’m probably lower on him than the consensus and have Springer ranked higher.

    However if he actually fell to us (as opposed to trading up for him which BLECHHHHHHHH) he’d be a damn good value proposition. He is definitely a project with a wide range of outcomes, but the higher end of those outcomes is, I think, significantly higher than most other options.

  157. thenoblefacehumper:
    I don’t love Keon Johnson at all–I’m probably lower on him than the consensus and have Springer ranked higher.

    However if he actually fell to us (as opposed to trading up for him which BLECHHHHHHHH) he’d be a damn good value proposition. He is definitely a project with a wide range of outcomes, but the higher end of those outcomes is, I think, significantly higher than most other options.

    Yeah, and I would add that even if he fell to us there would probably be a surer bet available at 19 and/or 21. It wouldn’t be Frank/Knox-level bad, but certainly an upside over objectivity pick. Normakky that’s not a bad thing well outside the lottery but this draft is deep with higher floor guys.

  158. What this draft season for NYK comes down to is whether management has learned from 2020 and can get to the next level of analysis. Obi is really a bellweather kind of mistake. His numbers on D were lousy and the film showed why….those hips are dead giveaways. Hali was a significantly safer pick, Vassell was at least marginally safer, and Saddiq, Precious, Kira and Maxey all had fewer glaring physical weaknesses. I don’t think Obi was a terrible pick and his floor is probably a legit rotation player, but there was definitely something missing in the analysis of his game. OTOH, picking Quickley against conventional wisdom was far more defensible (and let’s not get into another “he would have been there at 33 and might have gone undrafted argument). There were clearly things that analysts missed about IQ, and doing a post-mortem on that is instructive. (And I think that the same kind of thinking that lead to IQ being off of analyst radar is being applied by those who are underrating Mitchell.)

  159. kevin5318:
    Seen Keon Johnson falling to us in a few recent mocks. Very interesting talent

    Yes, please. Of course, as a UT Vol alumnus, I’m terribly biased.

  160. Keon is good at… jumping? He seems to be lacking pretty badly in tangible basketball skills. I get it that jumping is important and that he’s an impressive athlete, but he’s a very risky prospect with a low floor.

  161. A couple of Knicks-related notes in Shams’ latest NBA notebook, plus one that should be of interest to folks here:

    Oregon guard Chris Duarte, a projected top-20 pick, received an invite to the draft Green Room at Barclays Center and his stock is rising in eyes of teams. Golden State and New York are among the teams eyeing Duarte, who has a second workout with the Warriors on Sunday, sources said.

    The Knicks are having discussions to try to trade picks Nos. 19 and 21 to move up in the draft, sources said.

    The Grizzlies and Pelicans have discussed a trade that would send guard New Orleans’ Eric Bledsoe and the No. 10 pick to Memphis for No. 17, sources said. Memphis has explored moving up in the draft.

  162. GoNyGoNYGo:
    Why is drafting 3 or 4 unknown rookies better than trading for known stars?

    Because drafting is for free, can give you cost controlled assets (or trade pawns) while trading for a star can (can, not must) bleed you to death, especially if you are a team with only 5 (Randle, Barrett, IQ, Toppin, Mitch) rotation players coming back from last year?

    Trading for a star is not “bad” in principle, it always depends on the cost and the players/assets left after the trade…

  163. JK47:
    Keon is good at… jumping? He seems to be lacking pretty badly in tangible basketball skills. I get it that jumping is important and that he’s an impressive athlete, but he’s a very risky prospect with a low floor.

    Shhh. :-) His shooting was pretty bad at UT. He’s tough and has a high motor, is a willing defender and rebounder, and cuts well to the basket. If he can improve his shooting, he’ll be terrific; he’s a real good slasher right now. He’d be fine at #19, if he falls that far. Get a shooter with #21.

  164. Alan:
    France defeats the US even without FIBA Frank!

    i looked at the box score and was expecting to see Boris Diaw score 20 points or something…

    on a side note…is anyone watching the 3×3 basketball at the olympics..it is entertaining but how come the USA doens’t have a mens team?

  165. The Team USA 3-on-3 team would have Kevin Knox on it so there would be no point in any other nation bothering to play

  166. I would give Keon Johnson a little bit more credit… if you liked Devin Vassell at all last year Johnson probably would’ve gone slightly ahead of him.. shooting about equal.. younger… just as good of a defender maybe better and more experience as a secondary ballhandler for an offense… way more of an all around athlete… and the numbers back that assessment….

    this year that’s sort of backend of the lottery or maybe just outside of it but he’s absolutely a solid guy in that range… the reason for the wide range of opinions is because there’s a lot of guys that grade out right around where he is… him and springer are pretty indistinguishable… some teams with playoff aspirations want help now and so perception is that an older guy gets them there quicker… and that’s how Duarte might leap him… but he’s good… he might need to develop more but that goes for just about everyone drafted even the older ones….

  167. People need to understand that the only reason Lonzo Ball was on the perimeter shooting 3s and playing off the ball a lot last year was because Stan VanGundy was trying to turn Zion and Ingram into point forwards. It wasn’t because Ball is not a PG.

    Nope:

    Lonzo Ball 3par
    year 1: .523
    year 2: .500
    year 3: .575
    year 4: .650

    i don’t think stan van gundy followed ball around for 4 years and made him do this….

  168. New mock from Givony. Has us taking Ziaire Williams, Kai Jones, Ayo Dosunmu, and Jeremiah Robinson-Earl in that order. In the process we pass on Cam Thomas, Jaden Springer, Jared Butler, Sharife Cooper, Tre Mann, Bones Hyland, and other players who are better than both of the first two picks.

    I mean…what even is there to say? I like Dosunmu a lot and would still regard this as an unmitigated disaster. I am cautiously optimistic that nothing even remotely close to it will happen, as this is pretty much the polar opposite of what a team looking for immediate contributors would do (not that I think that should be our strategy, you just get the impression that it in fact will be).

    i don’t think stan van gundy followed ball around for 4 years and made him do this….

    Never change, Strat. Always, always, always stick to your guns as a big time Sayer of Things.

  169. **New mock from Givony. Has us taking Ziaire Williams, Kai Jones, Ayo Dosunmu, and Jeremiah Robinson-Earl in that order**

    Has there ever been a draft where two 2nd rd picks have outperformed two 1st rd picks? Knicks making history!!!

  170. I’d be okay with Ziaire if that’s who they want to go with, but why would they take Kai Jones when they have Obi and Randle? That makes no sense and reeks of Givony just hedging and making stuff up. I’d be willing to bet that we don’t pick him at either spot, and that we pick one of the guys you mentioned if they are available.

  171. No way Givony is serious with that Mock literally goes against everything the Knicks have been saying they want from this draft

  172. If we could get the 10th pick and all we have to do is overpay Eric Bledsoe for a year it would be malpractice not to do it

  173. i wouldn’t take mock drafts too literally.. it is a bit concerning considering givony called his shot on the knicks pick last year with a week out but i don’t think there’s any conviction behind these picks like last time…

    that said.. zaire williams and kai jones are some of the biggest landmines in the draft… and you would literally be better off taking brandon boston and isaiah jackson instead… which is a tough thing to considering the depth of this draft… that you would take probably probably two of the weakest players mocked in the first rd… i can’t imagine that they’re that incompetent but we’ll see how much clout world wide wes gained and what that nets us this year..

  174. Max: Because drafting is for free, can give you cost controlled assets (or trade pawns) while trading for a star can (can, not must) bleed you to death, especially if you are a team with only 5 (Randle, Barrett, IQ, Toppin, Mitch) rotation players coming back from last year?

    Trading for a star is not “bad” in principle, it always depends on the cost and the players/assets left after the trade…

    Rookies guarantee nothing. They need time to develop and we have Frank, Knox and Toppin prove to us that betting on rookies is a crap shoot. Known commodities are birds in a hand. I’ve had this debate many times here. We need to move up in the power rankings now, not down.

  175. The Yankees are running a fascinating experiment wherein they see just how many times they can hurt me even after I’ve confidently declared complete emotional divestment in this season

  176. thenoblefacehumper:
    The Yankees are running a fascinating experiment wherein they see just how many times they can hurt me even after I’ve confidently declared complete emotional divestment in this season

    The Scranton kids gave me false hope. But now I officially give up. Sell at the deadline and re-tool for next season. The last time Cashman did that, it netted them Gleyber.

  177. djphan: Nope:

    Lonzo Ball 3par
    year 1: .523
    year 2: .500
    year 3: .575
    year 4: .650

    i don’t think stan van gundy followed ball around for 4 years and made him do this….

    Stats are meaningless without context.

    Maybe you should have listened to what SVG said about what he was trying to accomplish with Zion and Ingram handling the ball more often and why Lavar said he wanted his son out of New Orleans.

    SVG wanted Zion to become the future point forward.

    Lavar specifically said they were using Lonzo off the ball to shoot 3s and just stuck him him in the corner a lot of the time. They were using him like a better version of Frank, but that does not mean he doesn’t have the skills to handle and make more plays than he did in NO if his defined role is to be the PG and handle the ball. That simply was NOT his role in New Orleans. Role matters. With a new coach, maybe both Lavar and Lonzo will be fine with him staying now.

  178. thenoblefacehumper:
    New mock from Givony. Has us taking Ziaire Williams, Kai Jones, Ayo Dosunmu, and Jeremiah Robinson-Earl in that order. In the process we pass on Cam Thomas, Jaden Springer, Jared Butler, Sharife Cooper, Tre Mann, Bones Hyland, and other players who are better than both of the first two picks.

    I mean…what even is there to say? I like Dosunmu a lot and would still regard this as an unmitigated disaster. I am cautiously optimistic that nothing even remotely close to it will happen, as this is pretty much the polar opposite of what a team looking for immediate contributors would do (not that I think that should be our strategy, you just get the impression that it in fact will be).

    Never change, Strat. Always, always, always stick to your guns as a big time Sayer of Things.

    Reality is reality.

    Stats without context are GIGO.

    Join reality on Lozo. He was playing off the ball and shooting more 3s by design. That does not mean he’s not capable of making more plays if he’s given that role with another coach or on another team.

    The Lakers are looking for a playmaking PG to take some of the pressure off Lebron and to potentially replace Schroder. They are interested in Ball for that job, It’s not to play off the ball and shoot 3s. Naturally, if he’s shooting 3s better that a huge bonus no matter what his role. But they want him for his playmaking.

  179. This was recent, but there were discussions of this and and interview with Lavar throughout the season.

    https://www.sportingnews.com/us/nba/news/stan-van-gundy-pelicans-zion-williamson-rumors-coach/u21szfrtrcl61g46zqnq2pocz

    Speaking about Zion

    “I had a good relationship with him. I had no problem,” Van Gundy said. “I think we elevated his platform that we gave him. We put him in different situations, had him handling the ball a lot, playing a lot of point guard.

  180. Last one on Lonzo.

    If you are going to insist that he be able to penetrate and finish as often as a PG like peak Rose (or that style), you should understand he’d be a max player if he could do that. CP3 doesn’t do that.

  181. If we don’t jump on the chance to get Bledsoe with an asset attached I agree it is malpractice.

    Bledsoe and #10 for #19
    Bledsoe and Lakers 2022 pick and #35
    Bledsoe and #35 and #40 and #43

    I say yes to all of those trades in that order. Trading for Bledsoe would improve both our long-term future because of the picks and solve our PG needs next year. It would save us from overpaying for a mediocre PG in an attempt to compete.

    Plus it would allow for the possibility for one of Vildoza or Quickley or Cooper/Butler winning the PG battle and becoming the starter which would be the best outcome for our future. This cannot happen if we overpay for Lowry or Dinwiddie, or trade for Sexton.

  182. I still don’t see any of the trade up possibilities working out unless we just move up a couple of slots to get some player we have our eyes on. If the Kings trade their it’s going to be because they want quality players right away and many of our value players are on expiring contracts and aren’t really tradeable because of that. The Pelicans might want to dump Bledsoe’s salary, but I bet we get outbid for their pick. And they also probably want experienced players. Van Gundy was quoted as saying they were too young a team with most of their shots being taken by players under 23.

  183. Not Knicks related..but as a sports fan..Holy fuck that Padres infield is sick! They have an old school build to it. Nowadays everyone wants power hitting corner outfield and power hitting shortstop. But man that infield they have is nice all the way around in San Diego now that they are adding Frazier.

    On to the Knicks..they way prospects are moving up the board in this new round of mocks worry me. It’s setting us up to trade our first to either move up or get a player already in the league. I kinda had my heart set on a 2-3 players from the Bouknight/Murphy/Cooper/Mann/Bassey/ Duarte/Bleijenbergh mix. I saw the latest ESPN mock that had Bouknight going 6 to OKC! Holy shit! If Murphy and Duarte are gone at 19, do we trade down for Mann and a rotational player, or grab Cooper with 19 then package 21 and Knox to get something else. ESPN does have Kau Jones falling to us at 21- so that opens the door to move Obi if need be.

    Lawd this draft has me more antsy than I can ever remember being in the past..I dunno..10 or so years.

  184. With alot of the potential players Knicks would want at 19 and 21 going alot earlier in recent mock drafts wouldn’t that lead credence to the rumors the Knicks want to trade up and wouldn’t that make it more reasonable to do so?

    As I’ve mentioned before I have absolutely no idea who they should draft especially since there is no consensus whatsoever for picks 19 and 21 so to me if the Knicks want to trade up even just a few picks to make sure they get a player they really like I’m all for it instead of them staying put and being forced to take players they weren’t necessarily that high on.

  185. As for my Yankees I’ve never seen a season like this before which basically illustrates how amazing their bullpen has been for the past 25 years. I’m not used to blowing these amount of games in such embarrassing fashion, now I know what it feels like to root for the Mets!

    Having said all that they’re just 3 and 1/2 games out of the 2nd WC spot and if they actually make some moves at the trade deadline which they haven’t bothered doing the past 2 years they can easily overtake Oakland especially since they have a very favorable schedule in August. But a part of me wants them to miss the playoffs which hopefully guarantees Boone is gone and forces the front office to re-evaluate the way they have been doing things the past couple of years. Granted it will also take Hal to change his ways too and not sure if he gives a shit enough to do so.

  186. BigblueAl, I agree 100%. I don’t totally trust the Knicks drafting, but they clearly have a lot more information than we do. If they are sure they want a particular player they should definitely go for it.

  187. And on the subject of the Yankees, I don’t follow them much, but I have the distinct impression changing to Boone as manager hasn’t helped and may have hurt.

  188. With alot of the potential players Knicks would want at 19 and 21 going alot earlier in recent mock drafts wouldn’t that lead credence to the rumors the Knicks want to trade up and wouldn’t that make it more reasonable to do so?

    As some players rise, others have to fall. There is literally no combination of picks 1-18 that would make a trade up to, say, 14 (I’m assuming this is as high as 19 + 21 can get you) make sense.

    Maybe you should have listened to what SVG said about what he was trying to accomplish with Zion and Ingram handling the ball more often and why Lavar said he wanted his son out of New Orleans.

    But Strat djphan posted 4 years of data and SVG was only Lonzo’s coach for one of them.

  189. If we don’t jump on the chance to get Bledsoe with an asset attached I agree it is malpractice.

    i think it’s going to be tough now that it’s rumored the grizzlies have jumped in the discussion and i imagine OKC… who has pick 16….can beat everyone’s offer…

    With alot of the potential players Knicks would want at 19 and 21 going alot earlier in recent mock drafts wouldn’t that lead credence to the rumors the Knicks want to trade up and wouldn’t that make it more reasonable to do so?

    i think if you read the tea leaves… the rumors of the knicks trading up started awhile ago and so the trade up target is likely someone who was in the late lotto range from the beginning of the process… I kind of think it’s someone like Moody but could be Kuminga or anyone… just guesses at this point…

    i dont’ imagine these trade up rumors beings any of these guys currently ‘rising’ because of that..

  190. Trading up is advisable if you see a guy you feel has more upside than anyone who is likely to be available to you at your draft spots. Imagine trading up for Kawhi, or Giannis….obviously recognizing those guys is an art form, but that’s what you pay your guys to do. Maybe Ziaire is that guy, or Keon, or even an old guy like Davion or Duarte. So long as you have done your best due diligence, and have counted enough cards to get the odds in your favor, I hav eno problem with going for it. But you better hit at least.a double.

  191. tnfh I truly don’t get why you have Mitchell rated so low. I’d be estatic if he fell to us at #19 (obviously this won’t happen) and while I’d rather not chase him with a trade-up, someone is going to get a very good player. This scouting report bodes very well for him, what do you find troubling?

    A genuinely better question would be what don’t I find troubling?

    -He is 6’0″, so his defensive prowess will translate to maybe containing some penetration from lead guards and not much else.

    -He cannot shoot the ball. His one-year 3PT% aside, the man is a 66% free throw shooter over a three year sample size.

    -He doesn’t get to the line, like at all. He took 2.6 FTA/40 as (basically) a senior.

    -He is not nearly good enough to be a primary ball handler.

    This is a pretty classic case of an upperclassman having a nice March and getting picked way too high. What is his role supposed to be in the NBA?

  192. I suspect the trade up target is Giddey or Jalen Johnson. They’re the players who are plausibly available in the late lotto and have the upside to justify trading 2 picks. It’s a departure from last year’s strategy, but they make the most sense to me as trade up targets unless Kuminga or Bouknight fall.

  193. How much money did Evan Fournier make for himself by torching Team USA today? Would we have any interest in him as a wing who can shoot?

  194. thenoblefacehumper: -He is 6’0?, so his defensive prowess will translate to maybe containing some penetration from lead guards and not much else.

    Would you say this is true for Chris Paul? Or Kyle Lowry? Or Patrick Beverley? Or Avery Johnson? He won several NCAA DPOY awards and most scouting reports I’ve read refer to him as elite and capable of guarding bigger players (see: Cade Cunningham). Mike Schmitz call him one of the best defensive players he ever evaluated.

    thenoblefacehumper: -He cannot shoot the ball. His one-year 3PT% aside, the man is a 66% free throw shooter over a three year sample size.

    1) Why is what he did in his first 2 years of NCAA ball just as relevant as what he did in his last year? Is improvement not a thing? Wouldn’t you be more concerned if he regressed? He had a .619 TS% on over 300 FGA, including 57% on 168 2PA and 45% on 144 3PA. How can you possibly think that shooting 64% on 64 FTA mitigates his outstanding shooting on all levels, and that many of those attempts were contested off-the-dribble shots of a much higher degree of difficulty? Do you really think that fixing his FTs is a huge problem? Mitchell shot 43.5 percent on catch-and-shoot jumpers, averaging 1.306 points-per-possession, good for the 91st percentile nationally, according to Synergy. He shot 43.6 percent on off-the-dribble jumpers, averaging 1.139 PPP, which was good for the 95th percentile nationally.

    thenoblefacehumper:
    -He doesn’t get to the line, like at all. He took 2.6 FTA/40 as (basically) a senior.

    I get this and agree it is a red flag, but it could be the reverse case of Quickley in that he was so quick at getting to the rim (or just scoring in general) that he didn’t need to hunt fouls at the NCAA level?

  195. Can’t sleep… watching some Luka on Luca action. Luca looks like the primary defender. Luka torching Arg, but Luca isn’t doing a bad job on him considering. He ran into his own teammate once on a pick that should have been switched and Luka boxed him out for an easy rebound with the 4in height difference.

    Luca with a few drives to nowhere, but he set a good pick to get another player an easy layup and then stole a lazy pass in the backcourt.

    Argentina really needs a 7ft C, as good as Scola is.

  196. Vildoza with another end of quarter steal in the backcourt,hits a little floater. Not guarding Luka, but his unit closed the gap a bit.

  197. Vildoza doing some damage, another steal and some nice passing and scoring. Game has been long over, so I’m not sure how much you credit him. His numbers will also look a bit better thanks to 2 tech fts.

  198. “zaire williams and kai jones are some of the biggest landmines in the draft”.

    Only seen each of them a few times, I thought Kai looked pretty good though. Ziaire is a twig who can’t shoot (yet) and wasn’t really that impactful defensively, so I get it. Kai was really effecient inside and from 3 though…. Good stock numbers. Rebounding is a red flag (also only 15 pts per 40), but UT had a lot of good bigs so not sure how much that impacted things. Why is he a landmine?

    Honestly, mostly just hoping there are no win-now moves (trading up for Duarte or an average vet). This team needs more young talent and is not ready for any kind of playoff push.

  199. Most of Luca’s counting stats came in the 4th of a blowout, but he looked good nonetheless. He should’ve finished with another assist but Scola bobbled it and missed the layup.

    I don’t think Luca goes all the way into the paint enough, he pulls short for a floater or makes a bailout pass. Hoping that changes when he knows Mitch is looming rather than a very under the basket Scola.

  200. I watched the game too and was pretty impressed by Vildoza. Missed all his 3pters but was 3 for 5 from 2pt range and 5 of 6 from the FT line. Had 5 asts, 3 rebs, 3 stls and 0 TOs so a nice all around game and I liked how he attacked the paint alot. Decent size too, a bit lanky but looks like he’ll be able to handle NBA physicality.

    Don’t think he’ll be in the rotation to begin the season but he’ll definitely deserve a roster spot. I think he’ll become a fan favorite very quickly.

  201. Oh man, I just realized I’m going away for the weekend on Thursday, so I’ll miss the draft! I’ll still follow it from my hotel, though (and I’ll have a post up, of course).

  202. Brian Cronin:
    Oh man, I just realized I’m going away for the weekend on Thursday, so I’ll miss the draft! I’ll still follow it from my hotel, though (and I’ll have a post up, of course).

    Oh, man, we’re gonna throw a rager while you’re gone, Brian! PAR-TY! PAR-TY!

  203. We probably need a new thread between now and a draft thread. This ones already pretty long.

  204. Ben R:
    Z-Man – I could give my reason why I don’t like Mitchell but I think this website does a better job running down why Mitchell is an especially risky pick: https://deanondraft.com/2021/07/04/capture-the-flag-which-prospects-are-riskiest-to-draft-in-2021/

    I would love to hear your thoughts on it. It’s just his opinion but I find most of his points hard to argue with.

    Thanks for the article, Ben. I’ll try my best.

    First, the wingspan: I don’t place much value in wingspan in and of itself. Kyle Lowry has a wingspan of 6’2″ and is a strong defensive player. Chris Paul has a 6’4″ wingspan and is one of the best defensive guards in history. John Stockton didn’t have extra long arms. Neither does Avery Bradley. Whatever these guys lacked in height and wingspan, they more than made up for in other areas…strength, lateral quickness, anticipation, understanding angles and leverage, preparation via film study, etc. Mitchell has those qualities. According to Wasserman, “When guarded man-to-man by Davion Mitchell, opponents are turning the ball over an insane 29% of the time, according to Synergy. Most in the country.”

    Second, the shooting. While FT shooting is an indicator, it isn’t the end-all. Mitchell had 5x the FGA than FTA and shot consistently well at all 3 levels in 300 attempts. Personally, I don’t care what he did earlier in his career because that player no longer exists. The shooting mechanics, the explosiveness to the rim in both directions, the passing, the decision-making in the halfcourt, are all improved over the past, indicating that he is a student of the game and a gym rat. I’m not buying that his shooting was some kind of statistical blip. I’d rather bet that his FT% will wind up in the 80s than his 3pt% will regress into the 30s.

  205. (con’d) Third, there’s the “it” factor. While I don’t think they are a perfect match, the closest comp I see in the NBA for Mitchell is Lowry. Nothing about Lowry stands out in and of itself. He’s just a winning player. He understands who he is physically and gets the most out of it to make winning plays. I’m buying into Mitchell being that kind of player. It’s a fool’s errand to bet against guys with his level of competitiveness and mental toughness. If he needs to improve his FT% and FTr, he will figure it out.

    (just a qualification, when I said “I’d rather bet that his FT% will wind up in the 80s than his 3pt% will regress into the 30s.” I was talking over a couple of years, not in year 1.

  206. Brian Cronin:
    Oh man, I just realized I’m going away for the weekend on Thursday, so I’ll miss the draft! I’ll still follow it from my hotel, though (and I’ll have a post up, of course).

    Well we need for you to post some opinions before then….none of this “well I would have taken that guy but was not around to say it” stuff!

  207. Only seen each of them a few times, I thought Kai looked pretty good though. Ziaire is a twig who can’t shoot (yet) and wasn’t really that impactful defensively, so I get it. Kai was really effecient inside and from 3 though…. Good stock numbers. Rebounding is a red flag (also only 15 pts per 40), but UT had a lot of good bigs so not sure how much that impacted things. Why is he a landmine?

    I don’t think the stock numbers look good… 1.5/1.6 per 40 for a big isn’t all that great…. if you think he’s a stretch big then maaaybe it’s fine but then we’re getting into bench player territory… for a starter all the #s are very poor … especially the rebounding where it’s probably decent if you think he’s a small forward… but as a PF or C you’re looking for about 50% more than what he got…

    for reference bobby portis.. who’s actually a pretty decent stretch big… also came out as a sophomore and was basically across the board better numbers wise… and he’s basically a 7th man…

    but sometimes bigs who perform poorly breakout in the nba… it’s rare but it does happen.. deandre jordan and bam adebayo are two famous examples… this sort of gets back to the preseason hype sometimes justifying picks alone as highly regarded recruits can sometimes get themselves into a terrible situation and their freshman year isn’t indicative of their true talent level….. or in the case of bam they unlock skills they never showed previously…

    the problem with kai is that he’s had two seasons of pretty terrible play.. he hasn’t gotten a ton of minutes but that’s probably because he’s terrible.. the dimensions look ok but he’s rail thin without showing the ability or desire to bang.. the athleticism doesn’t look all that special.. and the 3pt shooting looks ok on the surface but i have a tough time seeing a 70% shooter at the line getting to 38% at the pro’s at least immediately..

    he’s the biggest landmine in the draft…

  208. BTW just to repeat, I’m not advocating trading up for Mitchell or that he is worthy of being a top-10 pick, only that he’s certainly deserving of lottery consideration and would be a great get for us at #19 or 21. At the very least, I’m pretty confident that he’s not going to be a bust. We’ll see!

  209. There are definitely things to like about Mitchell. He is a competitor but working hard and having “it” isn’t always enough especially when things are not there physically. His size and physicality stats (rebounds, steals, and blocks RSB) are not what I want to see in a 21-year-old lottery pick. He could end up being good but I see a lot of risk in him and not enough high end upside to counter that risk.

    The Physicality stats are a big difference between him and Lowry, Paul, and Beverley. Lowry averaged 9.4 RSB/40, Paul 7.2, and Beverley 9.8 during their final years in college, all sophomore years, Mitchell had a 5.9 RSB/40. Mitchell is also 2 years older than both Paul and Lowry were and 1 year older than Beverley. Lowry was also picked at #24 and Beverley was a 2nd rounder. I like Mitchell a lot more at 24 and would be very pleased with him in the 2nd round but he is going to probably be picked in the top 10.

  210. I was a little disappointed they didn’t let him get the points record, but it’s not like won’t have another chance while carrying this squad.

  211. I really really hope we just make our two first round and one second round pick. The second 2nd round pick whatever but we are not in a place yet where we should be trading away picks.

    If we want to use some future seconds to try and move up, cool. But there is no reason why we cant have Villadoza, two 1st round picks and one 2nd round pick on our roster next season.

    As has been pointed out, roster slots 11 through 15 will hardly play anyways. But that’s where we could have some rookies being developed throughout the season. If we make those 3 picks and one of them ends up in the rotation because they deserve it, that is a win for us in my opinion.

    We can make these picks and still sign vet free agents either bringing back most of the band and/or upgrading at one or two key positions.

    Like why not grab Lowry for 2 years, bring back as much of the vet crew as possible and then make our draft picks? Keep it simple and keep acquiring young talent.

    We picked IQ at 25 last year. With 2 shots at 19 and 21, we should have a good chance of hitting on one of them.

    That is all.

  212. Luka trying to do too much again, I see. Holding his talented teammates back and stuffing the box score with empty stats. Smdh

  213. Would you say this is true for Chris Paul? Or Kyle Lowry? Or Patrick Beverley? Or Avery Johnson?

    Well not all of those guys have similar measurables to Mitchell, who has a 6’4″ wingspan, but sure. I would say those guys are all individually good defenders but are not nearly as valuable to a defense as a genuinely switchable big wing. No one would think much of CP3 or Lowry if in some bizarro world they were defensive specialists. Similarly, if Mitchell’s offense doesn’t translate his point-of-attack defense won’t be nearly valuable enough to earn him a roster spot on its own. Kind of like…ah, never mind.

    1) Why is what he did in his first 2 years of NCAA ball just as relevant as what he did in his last year? Is improvement not a thing?

    What he did in his last year at the line was exactly what he did in his first two years (a bit worse, actually). If you believe that he went from a ~30% 3PT shooter to a 45% free throw shooter in one offseason with no accompanying improvement from the free throw line whatsoever, more power to you. I am not buying as history gives us too many hints as to what to trust when it comes to a FT%/3PT% delta like this (see Fultz, Markelle).

    I get this and agree it is a red flag, but it could be the reverse case of Quickley in that he was so quick at getting to the rim (or just scoring in general) that he didn’t need to hunt fouls at the NCAA level?

    I have never, ever heard of this concept. I think De’Aaron Fox has the fastest sprint speed in the NBA, and he used it to rack up 8 FTA/40 as a freshman in the NCAA. A similarly fast guy in John Wall was at 7.2/40. Genuinely athletic, talented attackers rack up fouls without having to “hunt them.”

    The reason Mitchell didn’t get to the line is because while he’s very fast and has a good-first step, he’s not much of a leaper around the rim and thus resorts to intentionally avoiding…

  214. Right now, without Rose, Noel, Bullock and Burks being signed, we’re a much worse team than we were last season. I hope that we don’t get carried away with a win now attitude because we have a lot more work to do. Just make the picks.

  215. Ben R:
    There are definitely things to like about Mitchell. He is a competitor but working hard and having “it” isn’t always enough especially when things are not there physically. His size and physicality stats (rebounds, steals, and blocks RSB) are not what I want to see in a 21-year-old lottery pick. He could end up being good but I see a lot of risk in him and not enough high end upside to counter that risk.

    The Physicality stats are a big difference between him and Lowry, Paul, and Beverley. Lowry averaged 9.4 RSB/40, Paul 7.2, and Beverley 9.8 during their final years in college, all sophomore years, Mitchell had a 5.9 RSB/40. Mitchell is also 2 years older than both Paul and Lowry were and 1 year older than Beverley. Lowry was also picked at #24 and Beverley was a 2nd rounder. I like Mitchell a lot more at 24 and would be very pleased with him in the 2nd round but he is going to probably be picked in the top 10.

    All fair points. Playing for a physical team like Baylor makes it hard to evaluate Mitchell’s physicality stats beyond his primary role on both ends. When you play for a team that just absolutely steamrolled its way to a NCAA chip, including bludgeoning undefeated, uberhyped Gonzaga, what else did he need to do beyond what he did? Mitchell strikes me as a “do what it takes to win” kind of guy, sort of like Jalen Brunson in that respect. Was Brunson worth a mid-lottery pick? Probably not. Would he have been a great pick at #19? Absolutely. The only sticking point is whether his shot is for real. After looking at his synergy stats and watching his film, I’m a believer.

  216. thenoblefacehumper: Well not all of those guys have similar measurables to Mitchell, who has a 6’4? wingspan, but sure. I would say those guys are all individually good defenders but are not nearly as valuable to a defense as a genuinely switchable big wing. No one would think much of CP3 or Lowry if in some bizarro world they were defensive specialists.

    But is this fair? Can’t you say the opposite as well, that if a guy is a switchable big wing but has no other skills, like say, Theo Pinson, that no one would think much of him? Clearly Mitchell’s role would not be to be a switchable big wing, I’m not sure why it is useful to bring that up. He probably won’t be much of a rim protector either. The point is that he will be a net plus on the defensive end, which mitigates the “he’s short with a tiny wingspan” issue. And we’re talking about the consensus DPOY in the NCAA. That’s a special level of on-ball defense.

  217. Early Bird:
    Most of Luca’s counting stats came in the 4th of a blowout, but he looked good nonetheless. He should’ve finished with another assist but Scola bobbled it and missed the layup.

    I don’t think Luca goes all the way into the paint enough,he pulls short for a floater or makes a bailout pass. Hoping that changes when he knows Mitch is looming rather than a very under the basket Scola.

    Thank you for the updates.

  218. thenoblefacehumper: What he did in his last year at the line was exactly what he did in his first two years (a bit worse, actually). If you believe that he went from a ~30% 3PT shooter to a 45% free throw shooter in one offseason with no accompanying improvement from the free throw line whatsoever, more power to you. I am not buying as history gives us too many hints as to what to trust when it comes to a FT%/3PT% delta like this (see Fultz, Markelle).

    Fultz is a really bad comparison, a freshman who played on a bad team and underperformed when he played against the better NCAA teams, and then who had a serious medical issue in the NBA. Mitchell shot 44% on off-the-dribble 3’s and 44% on catch and shot 3’s. What makes you think that the FT shooting is a better indicator than that? Is it his shooting form? Or are you just blindly following the FT%=shooting potential mantra, as if there’s no variance? What in his mechanics troubles you?

  219. SI’s latest mock draft has us taking Isaiah Jackson AND Usman Garuba, which would be insane. I don’t particularly want either guy, much less both of them. And then somehow, Sharife Cooper falls to us at 32.

  220. Yeah I get that there is often a strong link between FT shooting and 3 point shooting but that isn’t ALWAYS the case. I mean, some people just don’t like practicing free throws or don’t shoot them as well bc the game has stopped.

  221. A reminder that anyone we pick at 19 or 21 (or even if we move up some spots), is going to have question marks. You do not get a complete prospect later in the first round.

  222. Alan:
    SI’s latest mock draft has us taking Isaiah Jackson AND Usman Garuba, which would be insane. I don’t particularly want either guy, much less both of them. And then somehow, Sharife Cooper falls to us at 32.

    I can only hope that this last 2 mocks (SI and ESPN) are wrong, both are discouraging, at least for me…

    It looks like nobody believe the “Offense and Shooting” words of Thibs… :-)

  223. Alan:
    SI’s latest mock draft has us taking Isaiah Jackson AND Usman Garuba, which would be insane. I don’t particularly want either guy, much less both of them. And then somehow, Sharife Cooper falls to us at 32.

    Some of these mocks are real head-scratchers. Why would the knicks take players who not only don’t fill a need but aren’t the best players available and whose roles could be easily filled by a low-cost FA? If we are planning to keep Randle, then why not put a team around him? If we were talking about Mobley, sure, draft a big. But Jackson? That sounds like the Kentucky hype train going off the rails. And Garuba?

    Just like with the Givony mock, I would be willing to bet that we don’t take either of these guys. There is absolutely no reason for them to prioritize rim protection and rebounding over playmaking and shooting.

  224. swiftandabundant:
    Yeah I get that there is often a strong link between FT shooting and 3 point shooting but that isn’t ALWAYS the case. I mean, some people just don’t like practicing free throws or don’t shoot them as well bc the game has stopped.

    I just think that it takes incredible hand-eye coordination to put up the percentages at all 3 levels that Mitchell did in 300+ attempts. The shooting form is very solid. I think his bad FT shooting is fluky and should be completely ignored. If you are unwilling to do that, obviously you won’t be as high on him.

    A much more serious concern for me is the lack of FTs in general. He doesn’t have a floater game, so if he can’t get to the rim and shoot 60+% there due to NBA rim protection, and doesn’t get fouled, then what? Pull-up jumbers? He certainly can do that, but the lack of FTAs and a floater game are very valid concerns.

    That’s why I agree that he’s not a safe top-10 pick, but a very solid pick outside the lottery and a no-brainer at #19.

  225. Yeah, like I said earlier about Keon, Mitchell would be a no-brainer at 19. Neither of those guys will probably be there at 19, but you never know with such a big cluster of guys and the subjectivity of teams’ evaluations.

    I’m in the “keep and make the two first round picks” camp. Two dice rolls at making a 7 rather than just one. :-)

    And yeah, certainly see if you can get into the Bledsoe sweepstakes.

  226. Nobody expects us to draft at 19 & 21, so they’re just throwing in a name projected around the end of the first. It’s free parking for mock drafts.

    Re: Luca

    He’s probably pulling up short because there’s no anti-zone rules so bigs can just camp under the basket waiting for him. Makes it harder to attack the rim for a layup/foul. I forgot about the rule differences in FIBA.

  227. I found a good representative look at Mitchell’s FT shooting in this game film and it’s definitely a bit more concerning that I thought. He has a hitchy, wristy motion that doesn’t look like his stroke from the field at all. I think it’s fixable, but certainly it’s not just a random thing that he’s missing.

  228. My 2 cents on Davion Mitchell: FT% correlates strongly with NBA 3p%. NCAA 3p% is too volatile to be a good indicator of NBA 3pt shooting. You can see players like Derrick Williams shoot over 50% from 3 and still be a bad shooter. Mitchell’s FT% is a huge red flag for me.

    On the other hand, some players need to be in rhythm to shoot and struggle from a standstill at the FT line. But that still points to some issues with their mechanics.

    I do like the nickname “Off Night”

  229. Isaiah Jackson does have some skills. Some hook shots, a couple of turnaround baseline jumpers in his highlights. His blocks numbers are insane and he’s not a bad free throws shooter.

  230. “The Knicks were a great defensive team but struggled offensively, and this top 10 scorer of all-time would fix that immediately”

    what the actual fuck is this dude on about

  231. Judging by the Knicks’ picks, it looks to me like many mock drafts are merely mislabeled big boards in disguise looking for clicks.

  232. Meanwhile, some interesting tweets from Givony, as followup to him saying he’s not expecting a big trade bonanza:

    @DraftExpress
    The two teams that could really shake things up are the Knicks and Thunder. Both have significant financial flexibility to absorb bad contracts as well as multiple picks to package and potentially move up. Their front offices will likely be busy fielding calls this week.

    @DraftExpress
    In the Knicks case, they’ll need to weigh the benefits of keeping their books clear for a star that maybe eventually wants out (eg: Beal, Lillard, Towns, Lavine, etc) versus the opportunity cost of continuing to build their roster organically with smaller moves around the edges.

  233. Isaiah Jackson definitely has bounce .. the problem with him is that he tries a little more than he’s capable of… which is not always a bad thing since you do want your prospects to have confidence and to make an effort to find their limits… his offense is limited but he probably thinks he could do a little more… sometimes they eventually do.. and sometimes they become Andre Drummond…

    Jackson has some things going for him and he’s a solid first rd big.. the downside is there are a lot of guys like him around the league… his standout skill for the position is probably his free throw shooting which could portend good things for his outside shot… that doesn’t necessarily mean his 3pt shot since that’s probably a real far off thing for him to develop…. but that’s something that you don’t usually get for rim running bigs…

    the frame is thin… and i usually don’t weigh things like that at all since people almost always fill out and sometimes quite significantly…. but if you’re trying to get through the east you do have to go through embiid and giannis and i wonder what the use is for a guy like jackson vs them…. if he can’t stay on the floor vs them at all then i’m not sure what the point is if you plan to contend… I don’t think you have those same concerns with Queta or Bassey although any big is going to struggle vs them…

  234. there’s a bunch of teams who don’t mind trading first rd picks.. except they want vets in return or they want to unload a bad contract…

    the bledsoe deal is pretty easy… the problem is OKC or Memphis will cockblock us on it quite easily…. we also have our own free agent plans this summer and there’s a non-zero chance the bledsoe deal interferes with it also…

    the next option is the Kings… but unless you’re swallowing the hield deal… which is much worse than bledsoe’s… then it’s probably not worth discussing.. they’re also looking for a vet…

    the warriors and pacers probably want to trade out… but they are also looking for vets.. in the case of the warriors they are big game hunting so we’re just not in the conversation….

    the spurs might be a good partner but all indications are they are looking to move up and not down…

    I think all these rumors about us wanting to move up are probably true … no matter how bad of an idea that is… but it’s another thing entirely to find a partner who’s willing to trade down to make it happen… which is why i thought it was unlikely for it to happen in the first place…

    but who knows… maybe we’re really that motivated to incinerate some picks and we just offer both picks to jump up a couple slots for Usman Garuba … i certainly hope that’s not that the case tho…

  235. “The Knicks were a great defensive team but struggled offensively, and this top 10 scorer of all-time would fix that immediately”

    Maybe this guy has fallen asleep somewhere between 2013 and 2014…

    No, please no, to a Melo revival…

  236. Mitchell strikes me as a “do what it takes to win” kind of guy, sort of like Jalen Brunson in that respect.

    Jalen Brunson was really good at basketball in college. Even as a freshman his 2PT% was above .500, his 3PT% was .383 and his FT% was .774. He only improved on those numbers after. His college career arc was night and day from Mitchell’s.

    Clearly Mitchell’s role would not be to be a switchable big wing, I’m not sure why it is useful to bring that up. He probably won’t be much of a rim protector either. The point is that he will be a net plus on the defensive end

    I bring it up because he can be a net plus on defense without being particularly impactful on defense. This means he still won’t be worth playing if you’re not getting good offensive contributions. We…have some experience with this (Mitchell is a better offensive player than [redacted], just making the larger point).

    Or are you just blindly following the FT%=shooting potential mantra, as if there’s no variance?

    I am blindly following the idea that if someone shoots 29%, 32%, and 45% from 3 in three years, and they shoot 68%, 66%, and 64% from the line in those same years, you have 6 sets of data with which you can evaluate their shooting ability and 5 of them tell the exact same story.

    Again, if you think despite all of that his most recent 3PT% is what really matters, because reasons, and we’re looking at high-volume Steve Novak, more power to you. We’ll find out who’s right!

  237. Z-man: NBA Draft Scouting
    @NBADraftScoutin
    ·
    Jun 25
    Knicks head coach Tom Thibodeau – “We’re looking for wings and guys who can shoot so there’s a number of guys that we think are gonna be good pros. There’s a lot of value here.”

    They currently hold picks 19, 21, 32, and 58 in the draft this year.

    This is a quote from the combine…it suggests that the mocks from ESPN and SI are just made-up hot takes. Not that Thibs would show all of the team’s cards but it just makes sense that they would be looking for shooting before size and rebounding.

  238. Saying both us and the Thunder have multiple picks to package is kind of like saying both JR Smith and Michael Jordan were NBA players

  239. The issue with Isaiah Jackson is the glut of Cs in the league. Is he better than Nerlens Noel or Willie Cauley-Stein? Probably WCS & on offense definitely better than Noel, but how much better?

    Noel was signed for $5M last year, WCS can likely be had for a similar price this year.

    And how much better is Jackson than Bassey or Queta who we can likely draft at 32 and 58, respectively?

    Bigs just aren’t worth what they used to be unless we know the can bring more.

  240. thenoblefacehumper: I am blindly following the idea that if someone shoots 29%, 32%, and 45% from 3 in three years

    Doesn’t that suggest improvement? It would be one thing if his 45% year was sandwiched between the two. Was RJ’s year an outlier or suggestive of future success? Was Julius Randle’s 3pt improvement a mirage?

    thenoblefacehumper: Again, if you think despite all of that his most recent 3PT% is what really matters, because reasons, and we’re looking at high-volume Steve Novak, more power to you. We’ll find out who’s right!

    Considering that I’m arguing with someone who thought Killian Hayes was a better prospect than LaMelo Ball, that IQ was an incomprehensible reach, and that Devon Dotson was lottery-worthy talent, I’ll take my chances.

  241. Doesn’t that suggest improvement? It would be one thing if his 45% year was sandwiched between the two. Was RJ’s year an outlier or suggestive of future success? Was Julius Randle’s 3pt improvement a mirage?

    Why are you ignoring that his FT% stayed completely stagnant/declined? If Julius Randle shot 64%, as opposed to 81%, from the line this year, I would definitely be a lot more worried his 3PT% was a mirage.

    I have never heard of a prospect legitimately (as in, in a manner translatable to the NBA) going from bad to absolutely elite when it comes to 3PT% with absolutely zero accompanying FT% improvement.

    Considering that I’m arguing with someone who thought Killian Hayes was a better prospect than LaMelo Ball, that IQ was an incomprehensible reach, and that Devon Dotson was lottery-worthy talent, I’ll take my chances.

    Ha, yeah, not looking like a great call on my part. By the way I think you forgot to post your big board for last year’s draft, as well as all of the others. Just something to get around to when you have a chance.

  242. IIRC, his choice was Wiseman who, by at least one metric (LEBRON), gives Killian Hayes a run for his money as among the worst players in the NBA… or may actually be worse than him (RAPTOR, RAPM).

  243. always loved watching the olympics as a kid, in the 70’s boxing was one of my favorites, liked the track and field stuff a lot too…i remember what happened in ’80 had a big impact on the country’s and my own views towards the olympics…

    still the olympics are a great showcase for some of the most unbelievable athletes in the world…hard not to watch gymnastics and marvel at what they’re able to achieve, honestly, the balance beam just scares the heck out of me – it’s like watching some scary horror flic the whole time they’re up there…

  244. Z-man: Doesn’t that suggest improvement? It would be one thing if his 45% year was sandwiched between the two. Was RJ’s year an outlier or suggestive of future success? Was Julius Randle’s 3pt improvement a mirage?

    Considering that I’m arguing with someone who thought Killian Hayes was a better prospect than LaMelo Ball, that IQ was an incomprehensible reach, and that Devon Dotson was lottery-worthy talent, I’ll take my chances.

    You’re the guy who thought Ron Baker was a good player. Pobody’s nerfect.

  245. You’re the guy who thought Ron Baker was a good player. Pobody’s nerfect.

    I also might be just a tad more humble if this was in my post history.

  246. thenoblefacehumper: Why are you ignoring that his FT% stayed completely stagnant/declined? If Julius Randle shot 64%, as opposed to 81%, from the line this year, I would definitely be a lot more worried his 3PT% was a mirage.

    I have never heard of a prospect legitimately (as in, in a manner translatable to the NBA) going from bad to absolutely elite when it comes to 3PT% with absolutely zero accompanying FT% improvement.

    I’m not ignoring it, in fact I just posted video and said it was definitely concerning. And I am agreeing with you that Mitchell is not a safe pick where he is currently projected to go, largely for that reason. I’m just more confident than you are that his 3pt shooting was for real and that the FT shooting is fixable, mainly due to his mechanics. I also think his defense is more impactful than you do (so do most analysts) and that he will translate into at least a solid 2-way NBA player, somewhere between Brunson and Lowry. He should have been mocked in our range, it’s the NCAA hype that moved him up 10 or so spots. In our range, I’d be thrilled to take a shot on him. No way I’d trade up for him, though.

    thenoblefacehumper: Ha, yeah, not looking like a great call on my part. By the way I think you forgot to post your big board for last year’s draft, as well as all of the others. Just something to get around to when you have a chance.

    I don’t post a board, and focus mostly on players who are in the Knicks pick range. And because of that, my opinions are generally tempered, with some exceptions…Frank, Killian, LaMelo, Hali, Bane. Most of my “exceptions” are agreed upon by the KB consensus…e.g. Knox. I respect that you put in enough time to post a big board, and fully expect that there will be clunkers no matter how good you are at it. But you were pretty condescending/dismissive about LaMelo vs. Hayes and IQ vs. Dotson. So when it turns out that you were dead wrong on both counts, you would think that you’d be more hesitant to say shit like “because reasons” and “more power to you” in response to my arguments. No biggie, though, always fun looking back!

  247. thenoblefacehumper: I also might be just a tad more humble if this was in my post history.

    Yep, I was horrifically wrong on that one from 8 years ago. Admitted it many times. Learned from it. Can you find something where I was smug and condescending (and terribly wrong) more recently?

  248. JK47:
    You’re the guy who thought Ron Baker was a good player. Pobody’s nerfect.

    Ron will come back! He’ll come back and he’ll be millions!

  249. Well, so much for that:

    @wojespn
    BREAKING: Memphis is finalizing a trade to send Jonas Valanciunas and 2021 Nos. 17 and 51 picks to New Orleans for Steven Adams, Eric Bledsoe, 2021 picks Nos. 10 and 40 and a protected 2022 first-round pick via the Lakers, sources tell ESPN.

    Honestly, I’d have been fine taking on the Bledsoe contract. The Steven Adams extension, not nearly as much.

  250. Z-man: Ron will come back! He’ll come back and he’ll be millions!

    he is/was (not sure if they got eliminated) coaching the ex-wichita state players team in the basketball tourney on ESPN for a million…he got a new hair cut to boot…no more mop head…

  251. If the Knicks weren’t decent again I’d be considering switching to being a Grizzlies fan

  252. BTW I’ve been trying to keep things civil and to not get snarky and combative with tnfh in the Mitchell discussion. Is there anythig I said that can be construed in a negative manner? OTOH I don’t know how else responses like “because reasons” and “more power to you!” can be interpreted.

  253. Alan:
    Well, so much for that:

    Honestly, I’d have been fine taking on the Bledsoe contract. The Steven Adams extension, not nearly as much.

    Yeah, that’s too much to take on and to give up.

  254. Alan:
    Well, so much for that:

    Honestly, I’d have been fine taking on the Bledsoe contract. The Steven Adams extension, not nearly as much.

    Wow, for two small market teams this is a big trade!
    It can also mean that now the Pels can pay Lonzo (and maybe Hart) right?

  255. Will the Pelicans try to dump JV? Wouldn’t bring no harm to the Knicks if we take on his expiring 14M, to be Mitch’s backup, moving up from #21 to #17 in the process.

  256. Max, or it means they can go big game-hunting for someone like Kyle Lowry.

    The Adams extension was just a bad idea, but he should fit in pretty well in Memphis, which is never a player for big free agents, anyway. Seems like a win-win for both teams. And a deal we would not have wanted to be involved in.

  257. @BobbyMarks42
    Pelicans could have up to $36M in room but at the cost of Lonzo Ball and Josh Hart.

    Room goes down to $25M if they let Ball walk and bring back Hart.

  258. cybersoze:
    Will the Pelicans try to dump JV? Wouldn’t bring no harm to the Knicks if we take on his expiring 14M, to be Mitch’s backup, moving up from #21 to #17 in the process.

    Valanciunas is a double-double machine and can space the floor way more than Adams,
    I’ll be surprised if NO don’t try him along with Zion, but who knows…

  259. Both Jonas and Adam are sort of dinosaurs, wouldn’t want to be saddled with either one.

  260. DudeInKnicksTown:
    Who does everyone want at number 10? Moody, I think.

    Not Moody, it seems.

    @NBADraftWass
    Josh Giddey is the name I’ve heard Memphis is presumed to be targeting by moving up

    I’ve seen Moody mocked to Golden State at pick 7, and I’ve seen him falling down nearly to our range. This is gonna be a wild draft.

  261. Trading up for a specific guy before the draft starts seems like a poor plan, I imagine the Grizz have a couple targets

  262. Even if Moody isn’t there, this seems a good trade for Memphis. They get another first out of it, and Adams is under contract for a while, where they would have had to make an extension decision on JV very soon.

  263. emergency. we need to save my godson from being buried behind brooks ja and bledsoe.

  264. @KevinOConnorNBA
    Sources: The Grizzlies are interested in moving up again after acquiring the 10th pick from the Pelicans.

    Jonathan Kuminga or James Bouknight are potential targets for Memphis with another trade-up.

  265. Speaking for myself, I genuinely wasn’t intending to be even 1% snippy when I said “more power to you.” I was being incredibly literal: if you can look past the FT%, then that obviously explains the difference in our opinions. I didn’t see the point in a prolonged back-and-forth on the matter because one of us will be proven empirically correct before terribly long.

    I would say I turned the snippiness up to 10% or so with “because reasons” in response to you rhetorically asking if I was “blindly following” the idea that FT% has some predictable power re: NBA 3PT%. I also genuinely do not understand the reason one would overlook that, though, so I’m not sure what the 0% snippiness version would’ve looked like.

  266. @ChrisBHaynes
    Eric Bledsoe, who New Orleans included in a trade package, is not expected to stay in Memphis, league sources tell @YahooSports.

    Would Memphis be looking to add a small sweetener to unload Bledsoe, or just cut him outright and eat this year’s salary (plus the $4 mil guarantee next year)?

  267. I could see Valanciunas ending up here at the deadline assuming NOP are out of the playoffs.

    Trade makes more sense for Griz than us because they have lower expectations… but they may also have way more longterm talent than us.

    Idk who would be interested in Bledsoe unless they give up another asset. Maybe just searching? Maybe us? 19 & 21 for Gordon & 10?

  268. I think this was a good move for the Pelicans. They’ll have more space in the paint with Valanciunas at C and that will help open things up for Zion inside. It also opens up cap space to pursue an upgrade at PG in free agency or to keep one of their younger players. For Memphis I guess it depends what they have in mind in the draft. If there is someone specific they are on the prowl for it can make sense. I read they want to move up even further.

  269. cybersoze:
    Found this article interesting:
    How to draft with data: Should mid-first round teams like the Knicks draft polished or raw prospects?

    That was a good article.

    I have one problem with it. If we draft a raw player this week, the consensus will be that he’s bust if he’s not highly productive 2-3 years from now. Plus, there will be no willingness to pay him an extension even if he shows some development but is not worth the price given his productivity at that point. So if he does eventually develop, it will be for someone else. We would trade him for a future draft pick so we could do the same thing all over again. :-)

  270. I continue to think Valinciunas is one of the most underrated players in the league. He’s a little bit of a dinosaur and he starts to present some problems at the highest levels where it’s hard to keep slow-footed Cs in the rotation but in the regular season he quietly puts up monster numbers year after year. High usage, high efficiency, good rebounder, and underrated as a regular season defender where being big is the most important thing. I think Memphis will really miss him.

    And I know Steven Adams has long been a favorite of just about everybody (myself included) but I thought he looked dangerously close to washed up last year. I’d be slightly wary of relying on him in a rotation role going forward.

  271. I think the odds of a tradeup just evaporated…. unless we’re getting desperate and trying our hand at the kings… but memphis eating both the Adams and Bledsoe deals means the going rate for a move up in this draft is pretty high…. at minimum we would probably have to eat the Hield deal… which i can’t imagine is a price we’d pay but he technically does shoot so *shrug*…

  272. thenoblefacehumper:
    Speaking for myself, I genuinely wasn’t intending to be even 1% snippy when I said “more power to you.” I was being incredibly literal: if you can look past the FT%, then that obviously explains the difference in our opinions. I didn’t see the point in a prolonged back-and-forth on the matter because one of us will be proven empirically correct before terribly long.

    I would say I turned the snippiness up to 10% or so with “because reasons” in response to you rhetorically asking if I was “blindly following” the idea that FT% has some predictable power re: NBA 3PT%. I also genuinely do not understand the reason one would overlook that, though, so I’m not sure what the 0% snippiness version would’ve looked like.

    Fair enough. As I said, I’m not overlooking it, just seeing it as less disqualifying in the context of all the other data.

  273. If trading up is closer to being off the table (it’s probably their plan B anyway) they can still use picks as currency in trades for players like Ball, Sexton, both or someone else. I thought there was an outside shot they might try to trade Mitch to New Orleans, but that seems to be out of the question now. It’s really not the perfect fit for them anyway and Nerlens sounds like he already has his bags half packed. So we’ll need Mitch if he’s gone anyway. If they draft 4 players I’m going to throw up my hands and start laughing.

  274. I continue to think Valinciunas is one of the most underrated players in the league.

    Completely agree. I still think this is a win for Memphis because they don’t really sign free agents anyway and JV is still a rather modest price to pay to move all the way up to 10 and get another late first, but I am a bit surprised they moved him.

    As long as you don’t pay him starter money, I think he’s a cool option to have to punish small lineups and he won’t usually kill you defensively. In the playoffs the defense is more of a problem, but I think you can still build a winning team with him on it if the money makes sense.

  275. I think the odds of a tradeup just evaporated…. unless we’re getting desperate and trying our hand at the kings… but memphis eating both the Adams and Bledsoe deals means the going rate for a move up in this draft is pretty high…. at minimum we would probably have to eat the Hield deal… which i can’t imagine is a price we’d pay but he technically does shoot so *shrug*…

    Hopefully this is the case and I agree with your analysis, but the alternative scenario is we simply pay the higher price. I mean, every single “insider” type is saying pretty confidently they think we’ll be moving up. I hope they’re just speculating but it sure seems like we’re trying.

    I don’t think we’d include RJ or anything completely batshit like that, but Mitch and the DAL picks could be on the table in addition to 19/21/32.

  276. Deeefense: I have one problem with it. If we draft a raw player this week, the consensus will be that he’s bust if he’s not highly productive 2-3 years from now. Plus, there will be no willingness to pay him an extension even if he shows some development but is not worth the price given his productivity at that point. So if he does eventually develop, it will be for someone else. We would trade him for a future draft pick so we could do the same thing all over again. :-)

    Hmmm, i see where you’re going with this. You want us to give Frank a 5th year. ;)

  277. thenoblefacehumper: I don’t think we’d include RJ or anything completely batshit like that, but Mitch and the DAL picks could be on the table in addition to 19/21/32.

    This year’s picks, Mitch and the 2023 DAL pick!? For whom?

  278. cybersoze: Hmmm, i see where you’re going with this. You want us to give Frank a 5th year. ;)

    lol

    I haven’t even totally given up on Knox yet even though I wasn’t a fan when we drafted him. He’s still improving. He might still become a very useful player.

  279. I have one problem with it. If we draft a raw player this week, the consensus will be that he’s bust if he’s not highly productive 2-3 years from now.

    No, it will not. RJ wasn’t “highly productive” by any means this past year, and it’s somewhat unlikely he will be next year. People still almost unanimously think he’s a good prospect we should look to keep because he’s shown a lot of really good signs.

    If, on the other hand, we draft a player who shows absolutely nothing despite a bevy of opportunities over a 4 year period, I will concede the consensus might turn against him.

  280. Hopefully this is the case and I agree with your analysis, but the alternative scenario is we simply pay the higher price. I mean, every single “insider” type is saying pretty confidently they think we’ll be moving up. I hope they’re just speculating but it sure seems like we’re trying.

    i’ve been paying very close attention to basically everything on the internet about the knicks and this draft (as i do every year)… even using my wife’s instagram to investigate who really worked out for us (kai jones and sharife cooper didn’t btw)… and my read of every analysts observation on the knicks draft is that the knicks WANT to move up… and they’re ASSUMING we’ll pay the price to do that… and i think that kind of filtered down to everyone also where everyone just assumes that’s just what we’re going to do ‘cuz thibs’….

    well you need someone to trade with in order to get that done…. and it’s not like we’re the only team with cap space and picks…. we were always competing with OKC on that front and apparently Memphis was a darkhorse nobody considered… and we’re DEFINITELY not the only ones looking to move up… and we’re also not the only ones looking for veteran help…. there are lots of rumors of teams looking to move up but not nearly enough on the other side which probably makes thing pricey… and it was…

    we dont’ exactly have that much ammo… are we going to include mitch? unless we’re really on massive tilt or leon is on a fever dream for kuminga or something… i’d have to think we have a little more discipline than that.. but we’ll just have to see… i was always pretty confident we were staying put but you can’t always account for crazy….

  281. thenoblefacehumper: No, it will not. RJ wasn’t “highly productive” by any means this past year, and it’s somewhat unlikely he will be next year. People still almost unanimously think he’s a good prospect we should look to keep because he’s shown a lot of really good signs.

    If, on the other hand, we draft a player who shows absolutely nothing despite a bevy of opportunities over a 4 year period, I will concede the consensus might turn against him.

    First, RJ was not really considered a raw player (like say Knox or Frank who you knew were going to take a long to me to develop into solid role players). His body was considered NBA ready. But even if you want to categorize him as a raw player there were a smattering of posts to trade him after his rookie year. lol

    I’ve been high on RJ from the start and became more enthusiastic after he showed he wasn’t going to be a liability on defense in his rookie year. I’m expecting more progress next year. But if he doesn’t take a leap next year and it’s time to extend him we’ll see what people are saying then.

  282. it’s also worth mentioning that with both adams and bledsoe gone… that chances of us signing Lonzo Ball has gone down.. i think we probably do need to go over 25mm on a bid.. which we may do… but i think and hope that the FO thinks it’s a bridge too far…

  283. https://www.actionnetwork.com/nba/nba-free-agency-2021-draft-intel-ben-simmons-kyle-lowry-cade-cunningham

    A lot of interesting stuff in here. Relevant to the Knicks:

    Add two more serious suitors to the Lowry list: the Knicks and the Mavericks.

    The Knicks are considering a one-year deal that would trump, the thinking goes, a multi-team offer in single-year salary. The Mavericks are thought to be pursuing a two-year deal for Lowry.

    I love the idea of an absolutely enormous 1-year deal for Lowry. Allows us to take another step forward while maintaining all of our flexibility. I think we can give him something in the neighborhood of 1/$40M…I mean, sure, why not?

    He’s always been one of my favorite players, but I’d be a little hesitant to give him multiple years. As far as core, expensive pieces go, I still think we should try to pursue players on the Barrett/Quickley/Randle timeline.

    The consistent names for the Knicks at 19 and 21 are Jared Butler and Isaiah Jackson. … if the Knicks don’t package the picks together to move up

    I’m a big Butler fan and think Jackson is reasonably promising, but I think spending a first-rounder on a rim-running rim protector type would be a waste. Give me Cam Thomas at 21 instead and take Bassey at 32. Now that’s a draft.

  284. Sexton is bad at basketball but otherwise a great plan

    A fun thing about The Great Sex Debate is the parties don’t fall neatly among traditional Team Optimist/Team Realist lines!

  285. Cybersoze, Thanks for the pointer to the article. It was very good. One thing not commented on is that the authors tried to sort polished and raw groups just by using age and assuming that anyone over 22 was “polished”. They gave up on this idea because no one drafted at 22 or older had a significant NBA career worth analyzing. That doesn’t bode well for Obi. I quote:

    For this section’s data, I flagged prospects with a draft age below 20 as raw, and prospects with a draft age above 22 as polished. This method leaves out players with an age in the middle, but let’s just see where it takes us. The players are taken from the 2008-2013 draft classes, and of course drafted between picks 13-30.

    There were over 50 players in this set, so I’m not going to list them all, but after charting the old and young groups of prospects, I realized that there was a large discrepancy between the results here and the other methods employed in this piece. The “old” set had almost no real contributors (George Hill was the best of the bunch), compared to the “young” set containing multiple All-Stars in Jrue Holiday, Kawhi, and Giannis. It was such a massive outlier that I decided to throw this data out.

  286. The Lowry deal is boring, but I guess I wouldn’t ming it for 1 year. i just don’t believe that it’s gonna happen.

  287. Jackson on a rookie deal would be fine. 2~ million a year for a good backup center is a good deal

  288. Not to beat the Mitchell debate to death but I actually don’t think his shooting is his biggest red flag. There are concerns but I could see it being a real improvement. My main concerns are his age and size. His size will prevent him from being anything other than a positional defender and give him a small margin of error to be a full-time starter, especially considering there is nothing in the stats that show him to be an elite athlete. His age is even more of a concern. For a player who is almost 23, he was not nearly dominant enough. Plus, players that wait until their senior or in this case redshirt junior year to become dominant are always a concern.

    Toppin might have been older with red flags but at least he was legitimately dominant. Mitchell was merely good despite being older than most of the other players on the court.

    Those are pretty large red flags even if the shooting is real, which is still a bit of a question mark.

    If we get a good player in the second round like Grimes, or Donsunmo, or Springer, then I am okay with Jackson in the first. I just want to get at least one wing, one guard, and then either a backup center or another wing. As for trading up, the only player I would be okay with trading up for that could possibly be available in the teens is Sengun. He doesn’t fill a need but his skill level is truly elite especially for someone so young.

  289. I can see us selecting Deuce McBride with one of our firsts. A point guard with a 6’9″ wingspan, tenacious defense, shot 41% from the arc and a real team leader. Low on turnovers too, which Thibs will like.

  290. Ben R: My main concerns are his age and size. His size will prevent him from being anything other than a positional defender and give him a small margin of error to be a full-time starter, especially considering there is nothing in the stats that show him to be an elite athlete. His age is even more of a concern. For a player who is almost 23, he was not nearly dominant enough.

    I dunno, when a guy is the best defensive player in the NCAA, that suggests to me that he is more than a positional defender. If you watch his scouting film, this myth about him being solely a point-of-attack defender is debunked. He is an excellent help defender on double-teams in the paint, weak side help and switches; what he lacks in size and length he makes up for in strength, tenacity, quickness and smarts. Mike Schmitz called him one of the best defensive players he’s ever scouted…and he’s scouted many hundreds of players over many years. When he makes 45% of his 3’s on 141 attempts and a significant proportion of those attempts are off the dribble, including step-backs in multiple directions, and he shoots 57% from 2 including consistently scoring at the rim with eather hand and an assortment of midrange pull-ups, when his shooting form is praised by multiple analysts, and when the improvement is significant in multiple areas, it mitigates the age and size issues somewhat, at least to me and to many professional scouts. His performance was pretty consistent all year, not streaky and all over the place. He shot over 40% from 3 in all 6 months of the season.

    If his shot is not real, you’re probably looking at an Avery Bradley-level player…that would be a disappointment but certainly not a bust at #19. If his shot is for real, what’s his ceiling then? Not CP3 or Donovan Mitchell, but a damn good player.

  291. So I’m assuming that some other team was willing to take Bledsoe for the #10, so the Grizzlies had to up the ante to take Adams (and gave back JV because obviously you can’t both Adams and JV on the same team).

  292. At some point, you have to make a call…does he have in the head and the heart the stuff to continue improving, or was this year just a mirage? Based on everything I’ve seen and read, He’s exactly the kind of guy I feel comfortable betting on due to the intangibles…heart, toughness, work ethic, dedication to winning. Ignoring those things is why Donovan Mitchell was picked at #13 when he turned out to be a top-3 player, if not #1, in that draft. Davion is not Donovan, but it’s the same things that are being missed by some models, imo. Same with Kyle Lowry.

  293. Early Bird: Early Bird
    July 26, 2021 at 11:24 pm
    Z-man: When he makes 45% of his 3’s on 141 attempts

    In the scheme of things that’s nothing. Mitchell would need to more than double his college career 3PA to even start to be a meaningful sample,3p% doesn’t stabilize until 750 shots. He’s likely not a good shooter.

    That’s reasonable, but still, it’s not anywhere near an exact science. Since we’ll never get to 750 attempts before he is drafted, you might want to look his most recent sample dump and analyze it the best you can. That’s why I brought up the consistency of his shooting, and the variety of shots he attempted and consistently made. If you just conclude based on the numbers that “he’s likely not a good shooter” you’re going to pass over some really good players. This is different than “ignoring” it, I’m suggesting that you look deeply into it and get a sense of whether he gets a bit of a pass on the FT shooting.

  294. This Shai rumor has to be BS, right? Shai and the #6 for the #1? Why would OKC do that? And why would Detroit turn that down? So I think it is BS.

  295. Brian Cronin:
    This Shai rumor has to be BS, right? Shai and the #6 for the #1? Why would OKC do that? And why would Detroit turn that down? So I think it is BS.

    The next 3 days are gonna be rough.

  296. I could see OKC wanting to trade for Cade if they believe he would want to stay in Oklahoma long term. Shai and #6 seems like too big of a price though.

  297. Final Board which i’ll trickle out until the draft.. this time with some upside comp mixes to spice things up:

    1. Jalen Suggs – John Wall/Derrick Rose/Mike Conley
    2. Evan Mobley – Chris Bosh/Anthony Davis
    3. Jalen Green – 120% version of Zach Lavine
    4. Cade Cunningham – Steve Smith/Brandon Ingram
    5. Alperen Sengun – Kevin Love/Pau Gasol

    Suggs fits the profile of past #1 pg picks… not quite as explosive as Rose and Wall but more technically sound in the mold of Conley.. honestly if you added more control to Rose or Wall’s game early they would have probably been better off and it’ll be interesting to see how Suggs develops… If I was detroit i’d think long and hard about houston’s picks (#2, 23 and 24) + future picks considering how close all these guys in the top 4 are… Cade isn’t terrible but these other guys are pretty damn good too….

    6. James Bouknight – Bradley Beal/Donovan Mitchell
    7. Josh Christopher – Jordan Clarkson/Joe Johnson
    8. Jalen Johnson – 75% version of Ben Simmons/90% of Lamar Odom/50% of Whiteside’s personality?
    9. Scottie Barnes – Draymond Green/Andre Iguodala
    10. Jonathan Kuminga – 25-80% of Kawhi Leonard

    These rankings have been more or less static since February and it’s a bit validating to have the consensus eventually converge to these.. still mystified at how Christopher continues to get no respect but for whatever reason Cam Thomas is the elite scorer.. confusing.. Johnson is weird and it’s impossible to pin down some of the subjective factors surrounding him… based on the numbers a team should take a chance on him as he could be a unique PF piece but the weirdness could undermine his whole career… Kuminga will continue to be a mystery until we see nba action.. the floor here is quite ugly given that there’s an age component that might be unknown… the upside is reasonably high tho so you probably should rank him ahead of the guys who have lower upside like the names behind him…

  298. This Shai rumor has to be BS, right? Shai and the #6 for the #1? Why would OKC do that? And why would Detroit turn that down? So I think it is BS.

    i think if you’re talking about the guy who dealt 23yo james harden …then to quote the great KG… anything is possible…

  299. djphan, reading this it seems like there just isn’t enough data because of injury to get teams excited about Christopher. But that seems like an opportunity (and risk of course) to take a stab at him with one of our picks.

    Josh Christopher, 6-5 freshman guard, Arizona State. “I give him credit for playing at the combine. A lot of top guys didn’t. He’s got a motor, he competes, he’s a downhill attacker. He’s a little undersized at the wing. Didn’t play up to his expectations in college. He got hurt and then basically never played again. It’s not like he tore his ACL. He’s a big, strong kid. He’s not going to move the ball, he’s more of a score-first guy. Raw but competitive. He’s really talented. Early second round, I’d say.”

  300. I could see OKC wanting to trade for Cade if they believe he would want to stay in Oklahoma long term. Shai and #6 seems like too big of a price though.

    Oh, I could totally see teams wanting to trade for Cade, but yeah, to give up Shai and the #6 pick? It doesn’t make any sense.

  301. SGA is an RFA next year, OKC may legitimately not want to pay him and roll over into another rookie contract. The timing may just be bad for SGA.

    If OKC is trying to recreate the confluence of talent they got with Harden, KD, & Russ… that’s a dogdamn moonshot. But I guess they have the picks to do it.

  302. there are subjective factors holding back the narrative for Christopher… and you could twist my arm and move him all the way down to 20 something because of that… but there’s no way some players like cam thomas or grimes or McBride are in the same conversation as Christopher unless the only thing you care about is 3pt shooting… and if that’s the case maybe these guys are better than bouknight and suggs too then…

    I don’t think he’s on our radar and it’s a shame cause if we are looking for shotmakers there’s not many better ones in this draft and you don’t have to trade up to get it…

  303. This Memphis trade (and potential trade up) makes me think Jarren Jackson Jr could be had in a trade. They have to be offering 10 and JJ Jr in any trade up, no? And Steven Adams isn’t exactly old at 28, either.

  304. I have to confess, you have sold me on Christopher. He looks like he could be very good and has a chance of being a steal at the position he’s likely to be picked at. And I’m not actually sold on anyone else. Not that other possibilities are necessarily bad, but most I just don’t know much about and haven’t grabbed me; and I actively don’t want Mitchell because of his age.

  305. Brian, I think the OKC offer would be motivated thusly:

    1)OKC is hardcore Processing, and while SGA is great, he’s about to get very expensive.
    2)With Kemba as their only real contract, they can afford SGA’s rookie max extension, but that ownership group is cheap and I’m still not 100 percent sure that’s a viable market. They may have told Presti they’re fine spending money when the team is going to be good, but not til then.
    3)Cade is a local star whom they believe would fire up the fan base, even if he’s probably a few years away from approaching what SGA can give you right now on the court.
    4)There is allegedly a big dropoff in this draft after the top 4 picks, then perhaps another big one if you believe in only one of Barnes and Kuminga, but not both. They might not value the sixth pick on its own all that much, especially with all the others they have going forward.

  306. This Memphis trade (and potential trade up) makes me think Jarren Jackson Jr could be had in a trade. They have to be offering 10 and JJ Jr in any trade up, no? And Steven Adams isn’t exactly old at 28, either.

    Excellent call.

  307. SGA is the single guy who could potentially be available that nobody is off limits for. It would take too many teams to make it happen, but SGA to the Knicks would have to look like:

    Julius Randle to GSW
    Picks #3 and 7 and James Wiseman to OKC
    Picks #6 and 14 to CLE
    SGA and Andrew Wiggins to NYK

    It makes sense for OKC because you’re resetting the rookie scale contract and likely picking up Jalen Suggs, and you still pick 7th overall. You also get last year’s #2 overall pick.

    It makes sense for GSW because they’re in win-now mode, they need another star, and this move actually saves them >$10M. Getting an All NBA guy to add to your front court as Draymond Green gets older is a pretty sweet deal, I’d think.

    It makes sense for CLE because, if Cade and Green are gone 1-2, they don’t need a center or point guard with Allen and Garland on the roster, so they trade out, still have a chance to grab Kuminga/Barnes/Moody at 6, and they pick up another pick at 14 for the trouble. They may even be able to extract a future 1 in the process.

    It makes sense for the Knicks because duh. If the price you pay for a bona fide star player at age 23 is swallowing the Wiggins deal for 2 seasons (who may even be useful if horrendously overpaid), then you do it and worry about the rest later. We keep all of our draft capital and still have tons of cap room.

    None of this would actually happen, but it goes to show that we may be leaving meat on the bone if we’re really not considering trading Julius Randle and just want to offer him max money.

  308. Biles has put up with a lot of shit in her short life, stress/trauma builds up. Like she clearly at some point possessed the mental toughness to be a champion or whatever. She won events with kidney stones. I guess she reached her breaking point. Jordan quit basketball for 2 years. Lebron had to go to Miami one year. Derrick Rose had that meltdown playing for us a few years ago. etc

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