Knicks Morning News (2025.01.23)

Didn’t watch any, but there were some close games yesterday, Wolves won by 1 in Dallas, Rockets prevailed against the Cavs at home also by 1*, Celtics needed OT in LA to win against the Clippers** and Warriors led the Kings by double digits for the most part of the 2nd and 3rd quarters, to then be tied at the end of 3rd, in the 4th the lead changed 6 times but ultimately the Kings prevailed by 6.

*there’s some good descriptions about the thrilling end of game at the end of the last thread.

**despite the Clippers decided to sit Harden, Kawhi, Zubac and Powell 😮

As for books, I am in the process of getting divorced and sold the house a couple years ago, which meant dealing with 5000+ books.

And because last thread was hard to read, this bit didn’t catch my attention, and i even had to go back when i saw Z-man’s comment about it.

Sorry to hear you’re having to go through a probably painful process, Rama, we’re here for you if you need to talk about it.

Are the Bucks really going to swap Middleton out for Beal’s contract? I don’t think this is being discussed enough. If this trade happens, it could really hasten Giannis’ exit stage left.

Would Mikal and KAT plus whatever we have left be enough to get him? Who says no? The Bucks, right?

Also the Pels game tonight has been suspended due to… snowstorm?

Global warming? Are you kidding me?? Look out the window! 🤭

Cyber, please.

News bot story on Kendrick Perkins calling the KAT JR/DDV trade the worst in NBA history from the TWolves perspective. He might be proven right if you define “worst” as not most lopsided (the Knicks specialized in a couple of those eg Bargs) but did it destroy legitimate contender status for the foreseeable future and was a lopsided trade.

Shrinking is a hard one for me. So is Ted Lasso.

I understand you. I watched some of Ted Lasso until I got to the episode about the little girl with bad breath on a holiday. It was a waste of an episode as far as I was concerned but it did tell what kind of audience the show was aiming at and that the show preferred to be mild comfort food to being something more complicated. I never watched another episode.

This blog would be freaking out if we almost lost to the Clips without any of their starters. The Celtics have had a bunch of “bad wins” lately (and a few bad losses) but I’m sure their blog is taking it in stride and attributing it to the slog of January

I know it helps to be the defending champions, but we really need to stop treating every game as a referendum on the Knicks. It’s a looong season, and games like Tuesday are gonna happen

Next 5 games will be very interesting however!

KFNINJ – Aside from Severance, which I enjoy (casting, casting, casting) Apple has been very Viacom for me.

I’ve really enjoyed Jean Smart in Hacks. I adore.

Went on a date with a real stathead heat fan dork (I like him). They have real hatred for Josh Hart still. Like our collective animus toward Embiid for reasons. He rolled Jimmys ankle in that series and fast forward to now. What kinda Faustian shit is Riley gonna do to make Miami still good.

I’ll check out Hacks.

I’m late to this, but that Katz article on OG was so good. I really miss him on the Knicks beat. James Edward III doesn’t do it for me – he’s a collection of platitudes most of the time.

Good morning, fellow Knickerbloggers!

“Would Mikal and KAT plus whatever we have left be enough to get him? Who says no? The Bucks, right?”

We should. No way in hell Giannis is worth that, at this point.

I’m going to periodically drop some factoids from that Ringer article yesterday, just because they’re juicy. If you read it already, skip my posts. This on Jalen:

‘He’s masterful at driving away from picks and attacking the space where help defenders don’t expect him to be. Brunson has rejected 23 more screens than anyone else, per Sportradar, while generating 1.3 points per chance (that’s good for the 90th percentile) when he pounces from the midrange.’

I appreciate this point as I’ve been constantly amazed at how infrequently he uses picks. Nice to see the logic, which I sort of assumed but had never seen in black and white.

D-Mar 99% of your posts are about what you think sucks about this blog. Your constant commentary about what you hate here is as additive as Doogie’s grammar policing.

For the record, your take about what goes on here is a bad one. We just barely beat a Nets team no better than that Clippers team and no one “freaked out”. No one treated it as a referendum. Reasonable posters had logical conversations about the evident limitations of our team. This seems to cause cognitive dissonance with highly sensitive posters who emotionally bought into the sky high expectations going into the season and are having a hard time coping with reality.

It is you who “freaked out” this morning by concocting an imaginary scenario that would make you really mad and talking about how stupid said imaginary scenario would be, mocking the community you’re part of.

I, for one, care very little about the regular season beyond being a top-4 seed. I think we are somewhat on track for that…and I will admit to being disappointed with anything less than that. Barring things that I won’t even mention for fear of jinxing things, if we don’t have home court in the first round, that would really put a damper on my feelings about the all-in moves.

But there is no outcome short of a second round victory that will leave me feeling great about this season. All in means all in. It’s all about the playoffs, and breaking through that second-round ceiling.

As for the “bitch ass move” the Clippers made last night, I think those fans got their money’s worth.

I’d rather see my team’s reserves compete and fight hard against the champs than watch an exhausted, depleted bunch with dead legs and short shots play down to a shitty opponent like we just did in Brooklyn.

This whole brute force thing we’re doing is not very entertaining. Nor does it seem like the optimal way to deploy the abundance of talent present. I will be happy, not mad, if I get to see Tyler Kolek for 24 minutes on a back-to-back while Brunson gets to play his best ball bc he’s not running on fumes.

Big news! The shot clock’s shape is changing!

https://bsky.app/profile/mikevorkunov.bsky.social/post/3lgg6kbtiqs2p

“I, for one, care very little about the regular season beyond being a top-4 seed. I think we are somewhat on track for that…and I will admit to being disappointed with anything less than that. Barring things that I won’t even mention for fear of jinxing things, if we don’t have home court in the first round, that would really put a damper on my feelings about the all-in moves.

But there is no outcome short of a second round victory that will leave me feeling great about this season. All in means all in. It’s all about the playoffs, and breaking through that second-round ceiling.”

I’d like as high a seed as possible (which I guess would mean staying in third place), but at the same time as I detailed a couple of days ago our record on the road (15-8) is as good as our record at home, so a top four seed might not be absolutely necessary.

But yes, for me the idea is to improve each season and get closer to a championship, and for this year that of course means making the Eastern Conference Finals.

“D-Mar 99% of your posts are about what you think sucks about this blog. Your constant commentary about what you hate here is as additive as Doogie’s grammar policing.”

I was surprised by this strange comment so I checked on D-Mar’s posts (not including game threads). He didn’t post yesterday (wise decision). His first post the day before was a completely neutral one about how the next 5 games are at home, etc. I stopped right there because it seemed highly doubtful his previous 98 posts concerned something he hated about the blog.

Load management is a valuable addition to modern nba life, and life in general. We’re generally conditioned to see the machination as negative when a coach uses it for something other than the health of a specific player. Thats just stale. The nba is a competition not a parade (that tasted funny).

Hey d-mar, you’ve been posting here for many years and I never once remember you having an ugly conflict with another poster. You keep right on doing you!

Our record at home is currently 14-8, so pretty much the same as our road record (15-8).

The Celtics were missing KP, Horford, and Jrue. They still should have won easily, but they weren’t running at full strength either.

The Celtics sat half their team too. These detente games are strange.

I always like when you get the understudy out to see what they can do. Let’s give Daniel Gafford 33 minutes just for the fun of it. What if you swapped Joel Embiid for Paul Reed was one I liked in years past.

I can understand why fans hate it though. It’s pretty niche.

Like the difference between a square and round shot clock.

I think we are somewhat on track for that…and I will admit to being disappointed with anything less than that.

This is a perfectly cromulent take, but things do happen. Health can unfortunately be a major issue (both for and against us) before and during the playoffs.

But I agree with z-man in spirit, although I would add that a first-round playoff win is important.

For 2025, I don’t necessarily expect us to advance beyond last year’s team with this new group, but we should equal it and then try to build around the edges after that. Because this is our team, for better or worse, for the next 3-plus years. The next order of business is clearly to acquire the type of depth Boston has.

Many here have and will continue to insist we need an upgrade among the starters and/or positional shifts, which is fine, but my expectation is that this is the starting group we want in place, so I will treat it as such.

Big news! The shot clock’s shape is changing!

https://bsky.app/profile/mikevorkunov.bsky.social/post/3lgg6kbtiqs2p

Time is a flat circle

“Time is a flat circle”

That’s very funny!

I can understand why fans hate it though. It’s pretty niche.

Of course the fans hate it. It is not cheap to go to an NBA game. Imagine getting decent seats to an NBA game, the only one you can afford to go to that season. You go with your son, who loves X star player on X team who happens to be in town that night for a game. So you splurge on tickets.

You drop minimum $100 for 2 tickets. Maybe more like $200 if you want really good seats. You spend $10 on parking. You plan to buy a hat or whatever for your kid. Another $30. You buy food and drinks for both of you. Another $40 to $50 bucks.

All in you’re dropping anywhere from $200 to $300 bucks. Maybe that’s half a week’s paycheck but hey, you want to see a game and your son wants to see star player. Only to get there and find out they’re not playing bc of load management.

It’s a star driven league but now many of the stars skip 10 to 15 games a year simply for load management (not even counting when they actually get injured).

It’s bullshit and it’s one of the reasons why the NBA isn’t as popular as it used to be.

IMO, the league still needs to address this. They’ve tried scheduling hacks to not have as many back to backs but there are still a lot.

They need to either A) shorten the regular season or B)start it a week earlier or both.

KAT and Giannis make the same money and trade fits nicely under the apron. I’ll add our 2025 Detroit pick too.

God help us if Leon flips Randle + a mid level guy for Giannis.

Time is a flat circle – lol. That did get a chuckle.

Yeah, hard to argue that the fans bear the brunt of it. I was at the Nets game next to a very young, very cute kid, son of my friend’s friend, who was a Brunson superfan. I actually thought about how crushed he would have been in Jalen had sat.

Thibs does it for the children I think is the logical conclusion.

You drop minimum $100 for 2 tickets.

This is very much a NY problem and not an NBA problem. You can get Nuggets tickets for about $10 a pop in the cheap seats.

“All in you’re dropping anywhere from $200 to $300 bucks. Maybe that’s half a week’s paycheck but hey, you want to see a game and your son wants to see star player. Only to get there and find out they’re not playing bc of load management.

IMO, the league still needs to address this. They’ve tried scheduling hacks to not have as many back to backs but there are still a lot.”

I agree with most of this. The league has also instituted the 65-game minimum for awards, but I don’t know that it’s made that much of a difference.

$300 as half a week’s pay = ~$31K per annum. One cannot live in the DC area with any modicum of comfort at 3x that salary.

Hold out hope if you will, but for an all-in team, they aren’t good enough — primarily because Mikal and OG aren’t good enough. In addition to that reality on the floor, the assets used to get them turfed the depth — which also isn’t good enough.

That’s the fundamental reality of where they are. Discussions/arguments/discord around the edges of that can certainly be had and are perfectly valid.

In terms of measurements, getting waxed in the conference finals isn’t good enough for an all-in team that’s depleted the asset chest. It may be perfectly cromulent by way of short-term excitement and energy, but in cold, hard basketball reality, not so much.

The thing about the association is that it’s pretty easy to see reality and the future if you just permit yourself to. I wouldn’t say that about the other sports, but pro basketball is different.

In terms of the odds, they started the season at +750. They’ve fallen to +1400 and been surpassed by the Cavaliers in the East, who are now only +750. If everyone’s healthy, and that includes Mitch, the Knicks project to lose in the second round to pretty much the same core group of dudes they smoked in the playoffs less than two seasons ago.

I’m not sure why or how this observation would bother anyone. It’s a simple statement of fact about where they are in the pecking order right now, and the best stock model of where they’re going.

Now, does this big matzo ball hanging out there have to be belabored in every game thread? Does every bad game have to then include a follow-up about how it shows where they stand in the pecking order and be proffered up as some kind of referendum?

I’d agree the answer is no, it does not. But it should be kept in at least some mind when googly-eyed things like “Landry Shamet has barely played all year” are trotted out.

“If everyone’s healthy, and that includes Mitch, the Knicks project to lose in the second round to pretty much the same core group of dudes they smoked in the playoffs less than two seasons ago.”

Not sure where the characterization of this statement as a “projection” comes from. There is zero data upon which to base such a projection. It’s really just speculation based on a preconceived (i.e. glass half empty) view of current circumstances.

There is zero data upon which to base such a projection.

There’s a laundry list of data to base that projection on. As we sit here today, the Knicks do not project to beat either the Cavs or Celtics in the playoffs. Simple statement of reality.

Doesn’t mean it literally couldn’t happen; they didn’t project to beat the Cavs two years ago and they smoked them. But that’s the stock model, baseline projection.

$300 as half a week’s pay = ~$31K per annum. One cannot live in the DC area with any modicum of comfort at 3x that salary.

DC minimum wage is ~$35K a year.
Maryland is $30K.
Virginia is $25K.

Write your representatives.

“Thibs does it for the children ”

This made me wheeze.

Wait, we all agree the Knicks aren’t as good as the Cavs or Celtics but are reasonable underdogs to beat either but obviously not both in the Eastern Conference playoffs?

What have we been arguing about for months then?

Simple statement of reality.

Truth and reality are two different things.

“DC minimum wage is ~$35K a year.
Maryland is $30K.
Virginia is $25K.
Write your representatives.”

What exactly am I supposed to be writing to my representatives about? My claim about salary needs near DC was more of a statement of fact based on living there for almost 40 years, rather than meant to be a complaint of any kind. If one is making minimum wage, one is probably not considering going to a professional (Wizards?) basketball game to be among the things one can do.

“As someone who ranks 23rd in minutes per game but first in time of possession, Brunson is the engine behind a top-three offense, but, despite that stat, he doesn’t stand around and dribble while his teammates watch.”

Your mileage may vary…

What have we been arguing about for months then?

To one degree or another, primarily the proper suggestion by Hubert, Pags, and occasionally others that you don’t have to wait around for the future to happen to make reasonable projections, based on current realities, about the future.

Some people chafe at and try to police those reasonable projections. That’s the primary source of Knickerblogger disputatiousness.

The Knicks a very good. The Knicks are not the best team in the NBA. The Knicks should continue to be very good for the foreseeable future. It will take a combination of luck and creative finishing touches to win a title in the next 3-4 years, but it’s possible albeit unlikely.

This all seems unobjectionable. I guess the disagreements fall on whether it’s an acceptable state for an “all-in” team. I see why some people feel that it isn’t, but I think they’re overlooking just how many teams go “all-in,” or close to it, and don’t even approach this status. Look at the Wolves, Suns, and Sixers just off the top of my head. Now that’s what a proper mess looks like.

The Knicks being basically tied for last in overall opponent 3P accuracy while being top 5 in fewest wide open 3PAs allowed explain, in my view, why the vibe is underwhelming. Knicks opponents are hitting 39.3% of their 3PAs when coverage is tight (defender 2-4 feet away), worst in the league. That doesn’t seem sustainable.

There’s always some form of theorizing as to why the numbers make sense, but ultimately the theories rarely hold. This shit fluctuates. People were making exactly the opposite argument a few seasons ago (was it 21-22?) when opponents were basically not hitting their 3s against the Knicks.

The Wolves were in the conference finals last year and then made one of the dumbest trades in NBA history.

Hasn’t worked out for the Suns yet, definitely — but put Butler on that team and it will likely be a different story.

Sixers have been destroyed by injuries.

Don’t really know what’s meant by “achieve this status.” This team hasn’t achieved anything — unless we grade on the kiddie curve and call 7th in SRS “achievement.” The previous two lost in the second round to lower seeds.

“Oh yeah, and, um, not to bury the lede, but Brunson has also scored more points this season than every player in the league except Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.”

“If one is making minimum wage, one is probably not considering going to a professional (Wizards?) basketball game to be among the things one can do.”

Sadly.

Jeez Hubert who pissed in your Cheerios this morning? All I did was point out that good teams lose (or almost lose) to bad teams all the time and you treated my post like I was personally attacking all Knicks skeptics

Relax dude…

Penny, regarding your take on the Suns, this Hollinger article, ostensibly about Butler to the Suns, is a terrific takedown of their front office and lack of a future. Pretty much a demolition. Reads like a Knicks article of a few years ago, which is at least nice for us.

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6079964/2025/01/22/jimmy-butler-trade-rumors-suns-mat-ishbia/

$300 as half a week’s pay = ~$31K per annum. One cannot live in the DC area with any modicum of comfort at 3x that salary.

I was thinking take home pay post taxes and my totally made up averages as far as tickets, concessions were based on all NBA markets. Places like Indy, Minneapolis, etc…would be less than DC or NYC, LA, etc. But I think, on a whole, someone taking their kid to an NBA game is out AT LEAST $150 bucks and potentially it could be $300 or more depending on where the game is, how good the seats are, etc.

For many people even $100 for a night out is a real treat and it must suck to splurge on that and not get to see the stars.

“If one is making minimum wage, one is probably not considering going to a professional (Wizards?) basketball game to be among the things one can do.”

I mean this gets into larger issues but I would argue this is ALSO a problem, lol.

““Oh yeah, and, um, not to bury the lede, but Brunson has also scored more points this season than every player in the league except Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.””

I would surmise that it is at least partially attributable to the Knicks being amongst the teams who have played the most games.

But I think, on a whole, someone taking their kid to an NBA game is out AT LEAST $150 bucks and potentially it could be $300 or more depending on where the game is, how good the seats are, etc.

For many people even $100 for a night out is a real treat and it must suck to splurge on that and not get to see the stars.

It’s $12 total for two tickets to see Wemby play in DC. Eat before you go.

mid season grades on espn+ today

New York Knicks
Grade: B+

Preseason projected wins: 53.5
Midseason projected wins: 48.4

Why this grade: By sacrificing depth in their trades for Mikal Bridges and Karl-Anthony Towns, the Knicks had the potential to take a step back during the regular season in the name of higher playoff upside. It’s encouraging, then, that the Knicks could still surpass last season’s 50 wins and plus-4.6 point differential thanks largely to Towns’ All-Star play.

How they can improve: Defend at a top-10 level. The Knicks’ 14th-ranked defense is their worst relative to league average of the Tom Thibodeau era. New York’s No. 2 offense alone is good enough to win in the regular season, but reaching the conference finals will require more balance.

The Knicks a very good. The Knicks are not the best team in the NBA. The Knicks should continue to be very good for the foreseeable future. It will take a combination of luck and creative finishing touches to win a title in the next 3-4 years, but it’s possible albeit unlikely.

This all seems unobjectionable. I guess the disagreements fall on whether it’s an acceptable state for an “all-in” team. I see why some people feel that it isn’t, but I think they’re overlooking just how many teams go “all-in,” or close to it, and don’t even approach this status. Look at the Wolves, Suns, and Sixers just off the top of my head. Now that’s what a proper mess looks like.

As long time president of team optimist, I think the objection I have to a lot of the naysaying is that the posts often come across like the future has already been written and determined and Leon has failed when that just isn’t the case.

OKC is not guaranteed a title. Neither is Cleveland. Boston is not destined to repeat. Houston and Memphis and other on the rise teams are not destined to continue their rise.

Of course, we’re not destined to remain good for the next three or four years either. Shit can happen either way. It’s the absolute certainty that we’ve already failed by some posters that bugs the shit out of me.

No one saw the OG or Mikal or KAT trades coming. No one foresaw just how good Brunson would be. No one thought the Hart trade would end up being as good as it was (even people who liked the trade). No one thought Deuce would be this good for how late he was picked. Fuck, no one thought iHart would be SO good he would get a contract like that from OKC! No one thought Brunson would take anything less than his super max.

Leon has earned our trust and getting made when we go on a little losing streak and declaring we’re fucked is annoying as hell. I guess the opposite is true for the skeptics too and I’ve tried to temper my overly optimistic posts to cater to that.

But when you look at where we are compared to where we were, I guess I just don’t really get hand wringing over the prospect of merely being really good for the next few years. This is sports and it’s entertainment. Plenty of REALLY good all in teams have come up short. Plenty of teams that were good have been able to find a way to get to the next level and win it all.

Let’s just see how it plays out. Not just this season but the next few.

People say we have no more moves to make but that’s not really true. Mikal is VERY tradeable and would probably net us good assets in return. Same with Hart. Hell, same with Brunson and KAT. We don’t know yet if Leon will be smart enough (or even allowed) to blow it up or wildly change direction if that is what is needed.

“It’s $12 for two tickets to see Wemby play in DC. Eat before you go.”

That’s in Mezzanine Level 409, where you can’t even see who is who way down on the court, and it’s actually $20 for two tickets (obviously still cheap). But “eating before you go,” even in Chinatown, is still going to cost $75 for two people.

For Towns, nice to have dangerous teammates:

‘According to Sportradar, Towns has been double-teamed on 19.0 percent of his post-ups this year. Last season that number was 29.9 percent.’

Also:

‘There are 85 players who’ve driven the ball at least 200 times this season, but none of them average more than KAT’s 1.191 points per chance.’

And perhaps damning with faint praise, but it’s better than a sharp stick in the eye, yadda yadda…

‘Since December 1, opponents are shooting just 62.4 percent at the rim when he’s nearby contesting the shot, per Sportradar. Before that, it was 77.9 percent.’

Don’t really know what’s meant by “achieve this status.”

Knicks championship odds: +1300 (4th)
Suns championship odds: +4000 (9th)
Wolves championship odds: +5000 (10th)
Sixers championship odds: +7000 (16th)

So, we actually did a pretty damn good job at the “all-in” thing, ahem, all things considered. Hardly perfect and I’m still partial to more typical rebuilds, but I also would never have thought we’d get here if you asked me in, say, 2021.

Considering OKC’s head-start I’m not sure how viable competing against them in the asset accumulation game would’ve been in any event.

Ultimately, our fate will probably be determined by how well the Bridges trade turns out. Ex-ante objections to it were, and are, totally valid. But pretending we have enough data to render a verdict on both the trade and the team when we’re looking at a 3+ year runway is unserious and not really worth a response.

I’m on repeat.

I don’t care what the standings, records or SRS says right now. At full strength I’m not sure anyone in the league is better than us other than the Celtics and OKC. A lot of what we’ve seen so far is still partially noise.

The Celtics have a couple of old players not playing as well as last year.

We have a better offense than OKC and hung with them in OKC until we ran out of steam because of lack of depth (Mitch and Deuce were out). Our bench hardly played. Players being out is WAY more critical for us because we lack depth. The follow up game was part of our burnt out short term decline from that game and the B2B with the Bulls next. OKC may be better, but not by a ton.

After those two there are a bunch of teams close enough that on any given night either can win, but we are in that mix towards the upper end.

We know we have issues on defense and with depth that will improve when Mitch is back. Other than that, there’s not much to complain about other than we are not the Celtics who were were one of the greatest teams in NBA history last year or OKC that has extreme depth and a better long term position.

It’s pretty sweet to have two guys that can go h-bomb and simmer at heavy ordinance. Feels like we have a better shot at getting lucky than we have in decades. That’s a nice feeling. To know that with an inch to give we can punch our way out of the coffin of “reality”. History is littered with stories of people that failed to leave when they had the chance. None of us did. Even the Skeptic tank. Thanks for the posts Raven.

Wait, we all agree the Knicks aren’t as good as the Cavs or Celtics but are reasonable underdogs to beat either but obviously not both in the Eastern Conference playoffs?

What have we been arguing about for months then?

I think it’s the bit I highlighted. It is very much not obvious to some that we can’t do both (and we have to do both before we get to the NBA finals). And for the duration of this season those who bought the “Knicks can win the title this year” bullshit have been pretty aggressively whining when those who think it’s obvious we can’t win this year talk about how obvious it is.

Hubert, when you’re at a party and the Dj misses a beat do you make sure everyone knows?

I missed the news of the passing of Garth Hudson. The book is now closed on my favorite band, and on my favorite filmmaker, and on my town, and on my country. I’m worried this blog will be next if an obvious change isn’t made to it soon.

No more evidence is needed that burning the asset chest for a Core Four of KAT/JB/Mikal/OG was a poor idea. While there are all manner of ancillary questions and scenarios that can be asked/gamed out, that is the fundamental question of Leon’s gambit. It’s answerable now. There’s no need to wait and see if the Cavs’ plane crashes or the Celtics all come down with dysentary the day before a playoff series against the Knicks.

But when you look at where we are compared to where we were, I guess I just don’t really get hand wringing over the prospect of merely being really good for the next few years.

Rather than get into the philosophy and metaphysics of it all, I’ll instead point out that the Knicks haven’t been “where they were” for five years now. This will be the fourth year in five they’ll make the playoffs. Their playoff seeds in those four years: Fourth, fifth, second, third (*). If you’re a 16 year old Knick fan, the story of your Knick childhood is that the Knicks were a very good team. As happens when you get into your 40s, time is going by faster than you think. The PTSD days are ancient history now.

With this in mind, the ask seems to be, “Just chill out the next three years and enjoy.” But we’ve already seen five years of them being good to very good. We’ve seen a bunch of playoff basketball. It’s no longer a novelty. Be happy with eight straight years of good basketball with no real contention? Nah, higher standards.

(*) Most likely.

We can so beat the Cavs and Celtics. It may only be 10% or so, but we have a shot. These are simple probability issues.

I’m not even sure we’d be a huge underdog against the Cavs. We might be 35% or 40% with them having home court.

Neither the Cavs or Celtics is necessarily 50% to get past us and each other. It’s not like because you have an edge that means you will win. The best teams don’t necessarily win each series or the title.

Yes, they have a minority chance to get out of the second round.

RESOLVED: That reality renders all-in/depleted asset chest/Core Four a failure.

disputatiousness.

word of the day 😊

and thanks for indulging me yesterday on the book stuff…really enjoyed reading what you all had to say…

Be happy with eight straight years of good basketball with no real contention? Nah, higher standards.

LOL, your whole post, E, but particularly this last line is exactly what I’m talking about. You act so confident in your assesment of what is going to happen when the reality is you don’t know jack shit.

As to books, I’ve also had to give away a bunch (and resort sometimes to the Kindle) because of the reality of Manhattan space management.

Just read a bunch of ancient history including Peloponnesian War — which I’d recommend to one and all — and those are impossible to do on the Kindle. Need to be able to flip back and forth between text and footnotes/maps.

People say we have no more moves to make but that’s not really true. Mikal is VERY tradeable and would probably net us good assets in return.

Hubert suggested trading Mikal and you guys skewered and ridiculed him.

I mean, yes, he could and should look very closely at trading Mikal and OG (who has way less value given his contract and play). But that would just be getting rescued from the bottom of the well — assuming it works out, a big if — doesn’t get at the fact of climbing to the bottom of the well in the first place.

It will take a combination of luck and creative finishing touches to win a title in the next 3-4 years, but it’s possible albeit unlikely.

Isn’t that the case for most “all in” contender teams and/or former champions trying to repeat?

Think Leon and most folks understand that it’s necessary to continually seek to make minor adjustments and finishing touches depending on what needs emerge from a) player injuries, b) regressions, c) role changes due to player improvement, d) opposition moves, e) temporary arbitrage market opportunities, (player availability vs cost of acquisition), etc?

You call it a well, I call it a heated pool with nice floaty things and a wet bar.

And for the duration of this season those who bought the “Knicks can win the title this year” bullshit have been pretty aggressively whining when those who think it’s obvious we can’t win this year talk about how obvious it is.

The Knicks can win the title this year. It’s very unlikely, but there’s a non-zero chance. EPM gives them the 6th best chances at 6.9% (nice). Basketball Reference is more bearish at 1.5%, which is still not zero. Vegas has them with the 4th best implied chances.

However, I have excellent news for anyone who is absolutely certain there is literally a 0% chance the Knicks win the title. The Knicks’ odds at the books are good enough that you can actually guarantee profit by shorting them! There’s a Dutch Book approach you can take as long as one of OKC, Cleveland, Boston, Denver, Dallas, Memphis, Minnesota, or even Phoenix wins. I think the return would be ~6%, which would be pretty solid for any investment in the amount of time between now and June.

So post those slips, zero percenters!

“There’s a laundry list of data to base that projection on. As we sit here today, the Knicks do not project to beat either the Cavs or Celtics in the playoffs. Simple statement of reality.”

Please show me the data that has a healthy Mitch factored in. (and btw, there is a projection from the time when it was assumed that a healthy Mitch was coming back…you posted it yourself!)

The odds don’t have to be zero percent for all-in Core Four to be a failure. The odds weren’t zero percent last year. They weren’t close to zero percent after the Knicks had tied the Heat series in 2023. Plenty of not-all-in teams have chip odds > 0%.

Sophistic goal-post move.

Their current odds of 13 or 14 to 1, depending on house, imply a percentage possibility of around 6.5% to 8%.

RESOLUTION repeated.

Shocking to see a certain contributor position himself so that if we don’t win a chip this year he is right, and if we win he is not wrong.

folks, we started from the bottom and now we here complaing that they may be somewhere between the 4th – 8th best team in the league in first half of the first year of a team that has TWO of the top 4 players in the eastern conference.

Yes, they have a minority chance to get out of the second round.

RESOLVED: That reality renders all-in/depleted asset chest/Core Four a failure.

I’m know I’m probably wasting my time, but you missed the point.

The Celtics were among the greatest teams of all time last year. IMO, they have less than a 50% of getting out of the east this year, let alone also beating OKC, Denver, Dallas or whoever is waiting for them.

That’s the nature of sports.

What you try to do is maximize your probability of winning it all either in a particular year, period of years or longer term so that cumulatively you have a good chance of a title. But even the greatest teams of all time are less than 50 percent to get it done in any given year.

The Knicks have a chance this year and will likely have a chance over the next 3-4 years. So cumulatively, they are fine. They are not the Thunder, but the Thunder are no guarantee to get out of the west in any given year or win a title in the next couple of years either. They just have a higher probability.

We are also NOT all in. We have assets that are not contributing now or yet that can be traded and we will be able to add depth next year. This is still an ongoing process.

What you want is the dream team otherwise you’ll be whining.

Isn’t that the case for most “all in” contender teams and/or former champions trying to repeat?

I can only think of one recent team that went all in so far away from the optimal point on the win curve to do so: the Timberwolves with Gobert.

Leon pulled a Jesse:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=odwnpFwuwF8

The Celtics won the championship with this nucleus last year. What’s the point of talking about the Celtics’ percentage?

The Knicks have the same punchers’ chance several other teams have. That’s not really contender status. When you’re at 6-8% what you’re really talking about is “the teams ahead of you having a bunch of material injuries.” That’s the point.

If the Knicks aren’t “all-in” the term has no meaning. That’s fine if that’s your conclusion, i.e., that there’s never such a thing as all-in — but let’s call it what it is. The term doesn’t mean “literally and entirely devoid of assets.” Every all-in team that’s ever all-in’d has some residuals they can trade and of course has the dudes they went all-in to get.

Thanks, Cyber. I appreciate this community, mostly, but I’ll try to confine my off-topic posts to correcting people’s grammar and excoriating their choices of entertainment.

Raven, thanks for the Ringer quotes. I read the piece and it did make me feel a bit better about things. Fundamentally I don’t think we’re beating the Celtics or the Cavs, but it’s conceivable with just a little luck. (Such as a repeat of the Mitchening or the very possible KP injury.)

I also don’t think OKC is there yet. The future is theirs, but in the present they’ve got to prove it.

And Geo, I think someone said it at some point, but the late, great Ursula K LeGuin is a great sci-fi antidote to dystopian hopelessness. If you go in for that made up, impossible-story bulldinky, that is.

Drake referemce there and I get it. Drake has a 4 srs and little chance of winning the title for the foreseeable future with Kendrick in his way. Lot of Drake energy.

The Celtics won the championship with this nucleus last year. What’s the point of talking about the Celtics’ percentage?

We are discussing probabilities that you don’t seem to understand.

The Knicks have the same punchers’ chance several other teams have. That’s not really contender status. When you’re at 6-8% what you’re really talking about is “the teams ahead of you having a bunch of material injuries.” That’s the point.

Not true. Injuries are part of it, but so are matchups, completely random shooting nights, single coaching decisions, bad calls, experience, mental toughness etc… The best team does not win every game or every series even at full strength. Shit happens. It’s a probability thing and the probabilities right now are based on incomplete information. They will change as the season develops and we learn more about each team, including how the Knicks are playing with Mitch and/or after the deadline.

Their current odds of 13 or 14 to 1, depending on house, imply a percentage possibility of around 6.5% to 8%

If we have an 8% chance of winning each year, then over a 4 year span there’s a 28.4% chance we win a championship.

Hope you’re doing well Rama, sorry for not saying so earlier.

What you want is the dream team otherwise you’ll be whining.

What I wanted, Strat, was the Strat Method: win trades.

Or the Bene Gesserit method.

That the hybrid method could have worked has already been stipulated. No need to re-litigate. Everyone’s moved on from that question.

The current Vegas odds already incorporate the percentage likelihood of Mitch playing and the ability at which he’ll play. Axiomatic.

Once again: events outside of base case, middle of bell curve might happen. That’s why they actually play the games. We’re talking mostly about base cases here.

“Thanks, Cyber. I appreciate this community, mostly, but I’ll try to confine my off-topic posts to correcting people’s grammar and excoriating their choices of entertainment.”

LOLOLOL!!! Thanks. I can use some help on the grammar; it’s too much and too awful for just one person to keep up with.

I don’t really care about what entertainment people like, but I’m certainly allowed to say if I like or don’t like the same things. Same with food, etc. If it becomes a topic here (even though it shouldn’t), I’m allowed to chime in just as anyone else does.

howdy rama…wishing you the very best…

i’ve never committed myself to another person, I know though how hard it is simply to maintain ANY relationship over the years…things change, ourselves and others, circumstances…

losing or breaking from a partner seems very difficult…I hope you’re able to move forward – with hope 😊

“That the hybrid method could have worked has already been stipulated. No need to re-litigate. Everyone’s moved on from that question.”

Typical.

“The current Vegas odds already incorporate the percentage likelihood of Mitch playing and the ability at which he’ll play. Axiomatic.”

Care to guess what that percentage likelihood is? I follow the team pretty closely and still have no idea when or whether he will return, or will even be on the team, come playoff time. As such, I highly doubt that anyone is setting odds based on Mitch actually being fully healthy come playoff time.

We have a solid team here, probably something like the 4th to 8th best team in the league, depending on how you tend to see glasses of water that are at 50% capacity. That would be an AMAZING floor. If we were already at that sort of position, and we also had a couple of high-ceiling young players on the horizon who had breakout potential, we’d really be cooking.

The problem is, we don’t really have any of those. In fact we don’t really have anybody who is capable of breaking out and playing substantially better than they are playing now, and we also traded away five first round picks and will be probably picking late in the draft for the forseeable future in the years when we DO have picks.

In terms of internal improvement from what we are already seeing on a nightly bases, there’s Mitch, I guess, and that’s about it. Maybe you get more good Mikal than bad. I’m squinting here, and I’m having a hard time seeing a lot of possible internal development. It’s a good team that’s a leap short of true contention, but I’m having a hard time seeing where that leap is gonna come from.

I follow the team pretty closely and still have no idea when or whether he will return, or will even be on the team, come playoff time. As such, I highly doubt that anyone is setting odds based on Mitch actually being fully healthy come playoff time.

Correct, Z-Man, the odds aren’t set based on broad tail and black swan events; they’re set on the consensus of motivated money with better sources of info than you and me, and far more motivation to ferret out that information.

Your point?

If you think you have better information on Mitch than the consensus, then by all means leverage that and lay a wager on the team at 14 to 1.

“…they’re set on the consensus of motivated money with better sources of info than you and me, and far more motivation to ferret out that information.”

Oh, I get it. There’s a mole in the organization that’s seling info to high rollers about Mitch’s progress and prognosis as it relates to his playoff performance. Right.

“In terms of internal improvement from what we are already seeing on a nightly bases, there’s Mitch, I guess, and that’s about it. Maybe you get more good Mikal than bad. I’m squinting here, and I’m having a hard time seeing a lot of possible internal development.”

Beyond posible improvement from Mikal (new role) and Deuce, I think Huk and Dadiet both might have untapped upside, especially the former. If he had been picked in the late first by a rebuilding team, I could see him doing reasonably well in a bench role, something like the current version of Day’ron Sharpe, and possibly improving from there. Pacome has good size, some skill with both hands, and pretty good feet on defense, but is so young that it will all be about whether he develops or stagnates. I mean, Risacher has played almost 1,000 minutes and is posting a .491 TS% on 20% usage and a -5.8 BPM. Would Pacome be any worse than that if he got those minutes?

I’m less high on Kolek…and McCullar is a complete unknown (no movie reference intended). But who knows?

We are also living in an NBA world where every year an impact player is discovered in the second round or even as a UDFA. Lu Dort. Austin Reeves. Max Strus. Sam Hauser. Naz Reid.

What I wanted, Strat, was the Strat Method: win trades.

🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣

I think we were doing well at that for awhile, but as I’ve said in the past, there comes a point where you are less worried about winning the trade than you are about getting the better player and perfect fit for your team.

I think that’s what the OG trade and overpay were about.

I think they also knew they were overpaying a bit for Mikal, but they also knew he was on a bargain contract that raised the price for anyone that wanted him. That bargain contract kept the flexibility to trade for Towns which imo we clearly won.

We’d all prefer that we still had a few 1st rounders to work with, but I think our starting 5 is among the better starting 5s in the league. I’d way rather be trying to fill out the bench with the young players we have, drafting 2nd rounders, and any trades or signing flexibility we have at the deadline or in the off-season than still searching for starting options to put next to Brunson.

The larger point is that there are ways to improve the roster in the Brunson-KAT window that don’t involve trading one of the core 7 players.

The current Vegas odds already incorporate the percentage likelihood of Mitch playing and the ability at which he’ll play. Axiomatic.

That’s true, but that’s an area where it’s more likely it’s not an accurate appraisal relative to what the gambling market has already seen.

I also don’t think OKC is there yet. The future is theirs, but in the present they’ve got to prove it.

I’m with you on this, Rama, and laid out my case a few days ago. I just don’t think Jalen and Chet are there yet.

I think the Nuggets are starting to look frisky in the west, and I actually think they will knock off the Thunder in round 2 if they get the chance.

In fact we don’t really have anybody who is capable of breaking out and playing substantially better than they are playing now

I don’t really agree with this. First, it’s not nothing that Mitch will eventually come back. What will that look like? No idea, but it’s not like Deuce coming back – a good player on a great contract, but pretty fungible if we’re being honest. Mitch is an impact player who can change the game. He might only be a shell of himself, but if this extra time has meant him being able to fully heal, damn, that could make a huge difference.

Beyond that, if any/all of Huk/Kolek/Dadier become rotation players, that would also be a big deal. There are always margin plays that can be disproportionately meaningful (e.g. Tyus Jones this year), and if we don’t have to plug holes with the Preciouses (Prescii?) of the world, we are in a better position to pursue them. While our top 5 aren’t likely to change, meaningful reinforcements over the Shamets of the world would really help.

I mean, we obviously don’t have the resources of OKC, but comparing ourselves to them is pointless. We can only look to our own possible ceiling and hope they don’t execute a flawless plan on the meantime. Horford will age; KP will break down. The Cavs? Who knows – could be a great season and disappointing playoffs. Or they could remain dominant. But with a healthy Mitch, more time to gel, and a solid off-season, we should be right there.

The Knicks odds in Vegas have only ever indicated how good Vegas is at taking money from over-exuberant gamblers.

That’s true, but that’s an area where it’s more likely it’s not an accurate appraisal relative to what the gambling market has already seen.

I should add that it’s not like I am super in love with Mitch. But the gap between Towns and our current backup options is huge. Mitch is very limited on offense and can’t hit free throws, but we know he can impact games on the offensive boards, defensively at the rim and even in other ways. He can potentially fill some significant holes in ways that exceed his typical value because we are so weak in those areas. There could be surprising upside to the team from him if he gets back to 100% in a few weeks after his return.

Austin Reaves

“Prescii.” Loved it.

I’m starting to miss the threads from when we were bad, as those threads were typically hilarious. Or at least from time to time.
This season i don’t think there was a single thread that i found hilarious. Not counting the game threads.

I’d personally rather be good and have less entertaining threads than the alternative.

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