Knicks Morning News (2022.09.05)

Pretty depressing Macri newsletter today: https://knicksfilmschool.substack.com/p/not-great-leon?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email&utm_content=share

Gist is: 1)Leon really wanted Mitchell and was shocked when Ainge didn’t give them one last chance to counter, 2)The FO overestimated the value of all the protected picks they’ve acquired, 3)The plan remains trying to win as many games as possible, even if it means not playing the kids as much (and finding out what Obi, IQ, et al can do given free rein).

Nothing is particularly new here, but to see it all laid out by one of the team’s most relentless optimists was pretty sobering. So we have to root for one of these outcomes:

1)RJ and/or other kids make such a leap that the team is good as a result of them, and Thibs can’t resist playing them over Randle, Fournier, and Rose.

2)One or more of our remaining vets gets hurt, forcing Thibs’ hands re: the rotation. (I am not holding my breath for a trade, though Macri suggested that at least some in the front office are now willing to attach a pick to unload Randle.)

3)The team plays awfully, resulting in the firing of Thibs and/or the team getting a good pick in what seems to be a stacked lottery.

So we more or less have to hope for the FO and coach’s plan to implode. As a former Yankee manager liked to say, it’s not what you want.

Or a 4th option, which was the viewpoint of many who did not Donovan. Another all-star-plus who is a better fit shakes loose. and we trade for him.

I’ll say it again, i hope it’s option #1. This franchise is due to have a little luck, no?

Reading Space Invader’s recent post, I wrote the following about what Macri wrote:

It basically says Utah wanted what NY wasn’t willing to give but Cleveland was. It seems like the market worked. The two teams whose needs and assets matched what was available ended up making the deal. I don’t find that shocking nor dismaying.

And If you want to hear why Cleveland might not end up that good and that NY probably made the correct decision, you can listen the the new Dunc’d On podcast. They expressed skepticism of Cleveland’s new line up much better than I did. Not that they think Cleveland will be bad or necessarily made the wrong decision, they just think they might not be great despite their four really talented players.

I agree with Leon in not giving Utah control of 5 consecutive Knicks picks, from 2025 to 2029. So i’m not going to say he’s an amateur because i would’ve done the same. But i also agree with Brian, if he came so close that the difference was lifting a top5 protection on one of the picks, then maybe he made a mistake on his own plan. But we really won’t know for sure, because if that proposal was in a time of the negotiation that the pig was always making more demands, you have to stop somewhere, no?

Weird. I was going to hope for our team to play well, our young players to improve and Randle to bounce back.

I’m leaning to Walker being Swift. Need a help on this, Geo. 😀

1. Randle plays team ball and bounces back.
2. Brunson steps up as the lead PG and finally sets that position right for us.
3. RJ takes the next step and is more efficient with his scoring.
4. Mitch improves his FT shooting.
5. IQ, OBI, And Grimes all take the next step.
6. DRose stays healthy and McBride gets some PT when rose takes some nights off.

Honestly as tough as the east is, if these things happen we could be a really fun and competitive team who makes the playoffs. We won’t get a lottery pick but next draft we have two first rounders and a boatload of second rounders.

Who is this swift you speak of? Sounds like a cool dude.

KFNINJ, i won’t make a rebuttal on claims that the Cavs are not that good again. But i’ll tell you this, if we had the Cavs roster right now, i’d be ecstatic.

Swifty, I think we gave up most of our surplus second round picks to unload Kemba, Burks, and Noel.

Who is this swift you speak of? Sounds like a cool dude.

I think he is. 😉 And thank God there’s optimists here. I usually don’t agree with them, but they give me hope that maybe i’m being too pessimistic. 😀

According to real GM we potentially have three first round picks and three second round picks in the 2023 draft.

No, Swift, we shifted our hopes of the double draft to 2024. The 2nd rounders you’re seeing there are for 2024 and not 2023. We have zero 2nd round picks in 2023.

that proposal was in a time of the negotiation that the pig was always making more demands, you have to stop somewhere, no?

But the picture Macri painted doesn’t show Ainge being a pig at all.

Ainge looked at what Dejounte Murray fetched and used that as the baseline. His ask was exactly what the Spurs got for Murray plus a reasonable premium because Mitchell is better.

That is absolutely fair, don’t you think?

We didn’t want to pay that price so we tried to strong arm Danny into accepting what we were willing to give up. Ainge wasn’t constantly asking for more. We were constantly badgering him to accept less. Ainge was the cool hand waiting out his opponent, not us. And when he wouldn’t cave, we leaked things to the press to paint an ugly picture of him being a pig.

I find all this petulant behavior (not to mention the gall we had showing up to that playoff game) to be a bad portent for this regime’s ability to close a deal in the future.

Perhaps the darkest passage of the Macri newsletter:

My assumption: the “veteran Knick” whose minutes Thibs is open to reducing this season is Fournier, first because taking him from starter’s minutes to something around 20 a night won’t materially impact his trade value, and second, because Grimes flat out deserves to start. I’m guessing that’s what happens, which means that most nights, if everyone is healthy, we’re looking at Quickley playing about eight minutes a half. Those minutes will go up when Rose rests, which I’m guessing will be fairly often, and it should go without saying that all of this goes up in smoke if the Knicks end up moving Fournier or Rose before the year starts.

Just in a dark mood about the team today. This is a team with no high-end talent at the moment. There are three ways to acquire such talent in the modern NBA:

1. Sign as a free agent. Free agency is pretty much dead at the moment, because the CBA incentivizes top players to extend for their current team and then ask for a trade. So Leon’s inability to sign a top free agent is no great sin. (And Brunson was a good signing, even if our others have been… less so.)

2. Trade for top talent. Leon has failed utterly at this so far, even though that is apparently Plan A through Z for him.

3. Finish high enough in the lottery standings to draft top talent. Leon has shown zero interest in this, and even when we’ve had lower picks, he has sometimes punted them in favor of acquiring future trade assets for Plans A through Z. And he hired a coach who is reluctant to play the young players on the roster to find out if any of them might be able to become high-end talent if given the minutes.

So… yeah. Good times.

Forgive one more music post, related to yesterday. Some relevance to basketball…

Nicos, Not to seem like a snob but I’d never rank bands. They’re too different and have different intentions and contexts. I will say that, yesterday on my run, I was listening to Rolling Stones, “Some Girls” and I thought, “Yeah, they really are the best rock band ever”. They typify what rock is. Not slow, not overly technical, angry, drunk, mean, soulful, groovy. They built on Chuck Berry but never forgot him.

Does this make the Beatles less good than the Stones? Hell no. They might be better than the Stones. In certain ways, certainly. But the Stones played live rock for 50 years while the Beatles composed masterpieces from their studio. Maybe Beatles get “Best Pop Composers”. Floyd gets “Most Awe Inspiring”. Tom Petty gets, “Nicest Guy” lol

Basketball players really are that way too. I’m sure everyone in the NBA has a certain skills no one else can touch. But basketball isn’t really an art in that there’s a zero sum way we judge it. So you can say, Jalen Brunson torched Donovan Mitchell and mean it.

Wow. I really don’t get the pessimism about any of what transpired this offseason thus far. We were BEGGING Leon to not get fleeced in this deal, and some pessimists were even convinced that acquiring Mitchell at ANY realistic price was a fool’s errand. And now that a white knight came in and saved us from a likely foolhardy trade, we are wringing our hands because of the manner in which we missed out?! I truly don’t get it.

Frankly, this is exactly what I hoped for, again, begged for! I wanted this deal to fall through so badly because I knew it was not going to happen on Leon’s terms and as such it would not be a positive development.

Know knowing that it would have cost us unprotected first round picks all the way out to 2029? Plus multiple young players?? That would have been WAAAAY worse than the Melo trade.

We should all be cracking open the champagne and celebrating that we dodged a howitzer shell of a bad deal. Period.

I’ve been a Knicks fan to remember the last time the team made a championship trade: Walt Bellamy and Howard Komives for Dave DeBusscherre. Same with the Mets when they traded for Gary Carter. I also remember the disappointment I felt when the Knicks gave up two pieces too many for Melo, knowing that the team now was a finished product and would come up short because they had nothing left in the tank. If they beat the Cavs offer, we would have been fucked for the next 10 years. Fucked.

So who gives a shit about how it didn’t happen? Who cares what impact it had on RJs or IQs or OBI’s feelings? Who cares what it says about Thibs’ minutes distribution two months from now?

I feel like my prayers were answered.

Z-man, it’s that all the reporting says that Leon STILL wanted to do the trade, and would have upped his offer if given a chance to counter Cleveland’s. It’s that no trades of the remaining vets seem in the works, and that Thibs remains our coach. And that the East is strong enough that we may not even make the play-in game, but will still be just mediocre enough to once again miss out on the cream of the draft. I just don’t see the point of this roster. At least while the last three vets are on it.

Some radical acceptance is required, Alan, to see the silver lining. But it is there.

We need to accept two more seasons of Rose, Randle, and Evan getting in the way of IQ, Obi, and Grimes.

But this plan has potential if we’re patient.

I have given Thibs grief over his strategy and tactics but I have always given him credit for his player development skills. There’s no reason to think minutes = development. Each of the three kids I mentioned has an entrenched veteran they need to displace in order to earn playing time and make money. And they have a coach who invests time and wisdom in their improvement. They also have a very strong professional culture to work in and develop the right habits. It may frustrate us not to see them play more, but I think they are all in great position to develop.

The other silver lining is that this team is actually quite good. So while we wait for the veterans to go away, we’ll likely be entertained with good basketball. The lack of high-end talent gives us a low ceiling in the playoffs but the depth, the defense, and the consistency will translate to regular season success. I haven’t ventured to guess yet but on the day the prediction thread comes out I’m definitely going to be in the upper 40’s.

So yeah, if you radically accept that there is no magic elixir in the next two years, I think you can see that we’re set up well to be competitive and entertaining for those two years. And we should be in good position once they’re up.

It is critical, though, that Rose be patient. There are no shortcuts here, and offering the farm for a ten game improvement is not the way to go.

Z-Man,
Didn’t Hubie Brooks get moved for Carter? I remember him slashing a bunch of doubles for MTL and being a problem. I know Kid was an inspiration, but how much better did he actually make NYM? Brooks had a great career. Did it compare?

Mitchell trade aside, if Leon manages to clear a path for Obi and Grimes, he will have had a great offseason. Actually- clearing a path for Grimes is on Thibs. He can simply start Grimes and give Fournier heavy bench minutes running with Quickley and Rose off the bench.

Moving Randle will be tricky because you don’t want to accept anything less than a solid backup or 2 and a pick. I would love to see OKC accept Randle, Grimes, Cam, 2
unprotected picks and a couple of pick swaps for SGA. Honestly, I’d be inclined to hold on to Cam unless he’s included in a deal for SGA- at least until we see how Rose’s body reacts in yet another comeback season. As much as I love this Rose era on the Knicks, it’s very likely that we may need IQ to take over the backup PG role for extended stretches. And if that happens, we may need Cam’s firepower on the 2nd unit. Maybe we SHOULD go ahead and move Rose to a contender to give him a chance to avoid a rebuild at this stage. I know he loves being a Knick now and we love him back, but moving him clears the logjam and keeps length in the backcourt. We could have a rotation of:
C-Mitch, Hartenstein
PF- Randle, Obi
SF- RJ, Fournier, Cam
SG- Grimes, Fournier, Cam
PG- Brunson, Quickley, McBride

I’d be ok with that. But I’m also sentimental about D Rose, so it would be hard to see him go- however necessary it may end up being.

cybersozesays:
September 5, 2022 at 09:04
KFNINJ, i won’t make a rebuttal on claims that the Cavs are not that good again. But i’ll tell you this, if we had the Cavs roster right now, i’d be ecstatic.

Actually you did convince me the Cavs were better than I thought. But then I ran across a podcast that reflected my initial doubts. So I mentioned it. But I have no idea if I should believe the podcast or not. It didn’t actually convince me the other way again, it just made me feel no one knows.

I’ve been banging this drum for a while. It’s easy, probably correct, to argue we wouldn’t have been in a good position after a Mitchell trade. Macri himself concedes as much in today’s newsletter.

It does not logically follow that we are in a good position because we didn’t make the trade.

If Leon Rose put us in a position where the only way to acquire the high-end talent everyone knows we desperately need was to make an objectively bad trade, that’s an enormous indictment of his “plan.” Does anyone even deny he did in fact do this?

It was Leon Rose who put all his eggs in the “trade for a star” basket. People here were screaming from the mountaintops that this was a bad idea for a wide variety of reasons that are now becoming apparent to everyone. Leon Rose thought he could cover all the obvious holes in the plan via the strength of The Connections or something.

If Rose really didn’t anticipate the whole “other teams want a lot of stuff when they trade star players” thing, he’s a moron.

So congratulations to Leon Rose for not making a bad trade for Donovan Mitchell. As a reward, there’s a decent chance we will be the best non-playoff team in the NBA for a second consecutive season. That’s literally the worst place to be, but hey, he didn’t make the bad trade!

But Alan, that’s not what you (or Macri) were saying a couple of weeks ago. Who cares if Leon would have beaten the offer if given a chance? It didn’t happen, and the reason is that Leon did not cave in to Ainge’s demands prior to the Cleveland offer. He spit in Ainge’s face by signing RJ to a (reasonable) extension. THAT’S how you negotiate. When a shrewd asshole like Ainge won’t budge from a position well outside what is a healthy compromise for your team, you walk away. Leon set a deadline and then signed RJ. That killed the deal, and Leon had to know that there was a strong possibility that it would kill the deal.

I mean, that’s kind of what Cleveland did too. They walked away when Ainge insisted that Garland, Mobley and Allen were untouchable. Then Ainge caved when RJ was signed and accepted lesser assets in exchange for 3 unrprotected picks out to 2029. If Leon had an opportunity to exceed that deal and did, I would want to spit in his face.

It took an enormous set of cojones to sign RJ when Ainge considered him to be a centerpiece of a deal. It pissed Ainge off to no end, and Leon knew it. And as Berman reported, Leon knew that Ainge had re-engaged with CLE, so let’s not overplay the Leon was blindsided card. That a team in much better (but far from perfect) position to grossly overpay for a flawed one-way all-star chose to do so is manna from heaven for Knicks fans, and for Leon.

Another silver lining:

I think these negotiations might have exposed Leon to the folly of his draft pick philosophy. These highly protected picks he’s stockpiled are not as valuable as he thought. I don’t think we could trade all 5 of those picks for one unprotected pick in 2027 or 2029.

If he actually learned his lesson, we might look forward to drafting two good young players at the end of the year with our pick and the Dallas pick.

1. I’ve been saying all along that the league was overvaluing picks, especially in the era of drafting 18-19 year olds. Maybe the league has finally figured that out, including the Knicks with their 3 protected picks.

2. All this talk about not having a chance to respond to the Cavs offer may be nonsense. There is a subset of fans that is upset this trade didn’t happen. They may be trying to deflect some of the blame by saying “We would have gone higher, but Ainge didn’t give us a chance”.

3. Fournier is almost certainly going to the bench. Thibs was already heading in that direction last year until Grimes got hurt. However, that does not mean Quickly loses minutes off the bench. It just means it’s Rose, Quckly, and Fournier at SF. We no longer have Burks. Rose will also miss games. Quickly will again be the 3rd string PG and get minutes when Rose is out.

4. The pessimism here is ridiculous. We made 2 solid long term acquisitions in free agency and have a lot of young players that can move forward. There’s still a lot of work to do, but there always is with rebuilding teams.

5. The only things that made this trade bad were:

A. Mitchell is NOT nearly as good as his reputation
B. He was a horrible fit

Otherwise I would have gladly paid the asking price.

I think DRose is only here because they assured him he would not be traded. He’s different and his relationship with Thibs is different.

Yes, I’m sad about no new toy but the handwringing around here is way off. We literally dodged the whole Melodrama. We get to see the Gallo Knicks continue. Maybe IQ starts finishing with his left hand and is better than Donovan.

Also, not all negotiations are public. We didn’t know CLE’s offer until they swooped in. The press kept acting like we were bidding against ourselves. Maybe Leon is working on something right now and there just haven’t been any leaks.

Strat, the league still values picks. They just don’t value picks that have all the high-end upside drained from them by heavy protections.

“Strat, the league still values picks. They just don’t value picks that have all the high-end upside drained from them by heavy protections.”

Of course picks still have value and unprotected picks have even more value. That hasn’t changed. But “imo” the value of picks relative to established players has been wrong in recent years and may be correcting. With a player, you know what you are getting and how much it’s going to cost. In an era of drafting 18-19 years olds you are less certain than you used to be, often have to wait years for real production, and wind up in the RJ situation where you have to pay big money before you know what you have too often for comfort. But you can’t just draft 22 year olds to improve the calculations because the best talent comes out right away in their teens.

There seems to be a narrative developing among coping Knicks fans that the only thing that stopped Leon Rose’s brilliant plan from working to perfection is that Danny Ainge is the only GM in the NBA who asks for a lot of stuff in return for young, top-20 players.

If and when the next one of these guys hits the trade market, I have a feeling we’re going to find out that’s a bunch of bullshit.

If this trade was bad for the Knicks, the next one is overwhelmingly likely to also be bad for the Knicks.

Is the “plan” to trade for stars, but only if the opposing GM does Leon Rose a massive favor?

Regardless of the record we end up with, I’ll be happy if Grimes and Obi start and big minutes. I’m a big proponent of “fit,” and those two low-usage/high-efficiency guys would help RJ get to a higher level… if not a #1 then at least a legit #2.

Now if RJ still can’t improve, sure, we have a problem. But we can’t let vets like Randle get in the way of us finding out.

“It was Leon Rose who put all his eggs in the “trade for a star” basket. People here were screaming from the mountaintops that this was a bad idea for a wide variety of reasons that are now becoming apparent to everyone. Leon Rose thought he could cover all the obvious holes in the plan via the strength of The Connections or something.”

If I recall correctly, it was at most one (strat) or maybe two posters who were in favor of the hybrid approach. Nearly everyone else wanted to go a different route.

And your assumptions about where we are relative to, say, the Cavs are hardly etched in stone.

Will the Cavs be legit contenders for the next five years? Maybe, maybe not. But they just sold the farm for Donovan Mitchell, so what’s the next step for them if this group tops out as an EC semi-finalist?

And what will the Knicks do as they wait for the next opportunity? They certainly could have had Mitchell if they really wanted him. Are you so sure that they won’t improve enough by, say, 2024 (3 years into Rose’s regime, i.e. the amount of time that CLE went 19-63, 19-46, and 22-50) to get where CLE is right now?

If I recall correctly, some posters wasted a lot of cyber-ink screaming from the mountaintops about how we were going to lose Mitch for nothing, sign RJ to an undeserved and crippling max deal, miss out on Brunson, and sell the farm for Mitchell. So pardon me when I don’t buy into the “Leon doesn’t know what he’s doing and his plan has already failed” narrative.

The obvious lesson of the Mitchell saga is that the league values picks quite highly. That was literally the difference between the Cavs’ and Knicks’ offers.

They just don’t value picks that have been stripped of upside via protection. If the Knicks want to trade for stars, and I’m assuming they do because they’ve cut off all other pathways to getting elite talent, they’re going to have to trade unprotected picks, and a lot of them.

If you’re thinking “it sounds reckless to do that before we even know if the team will be good,” congratulations, you’ve realized Leon Rose’s plan sucks.

The Cavs have three players who have made an all-star team at age 26 or younger, and their best player might be a guy not even in that group (Mobley). This is a very unflattering comparison for the Knicks.

They project to be pretty damn good immediately with a lot of room for growth. It’s easy to pretend we know the future wherein they top out as a conference semi-finalist (something we’ve achieved once in this millennium) and critique them based on that, but the upside is there. They’re doing circles on us when it comes to talent accumulation.

Hubert, I commend you for what seem like very fair takes on the current state of affairs. I’ve always said that there is a learning curve for being a POBO and some hard lessons need to be learned; that the trick was to not do anything crippling during this period of “residency.”

I have to push back a bit on the valuation of protected picks, though. I think it’s a reach to say that Leon didn’t get the difference between a current protected pick and an unprotected pick several years out. In fact, his willingness to part with the protected picks but not the unprotected picks, or to demand protections on that third pick, suggests the opposite. Brock Aller is every bit as shrewd at asset valuation as Ainge, and that’s why the talks broke down.

The point of the protected picks is to have insurance if you actually have to trade unprotected picks. If the initial offer was RJ, Mitch, Obi and three Knicks unprotected picks, and Ainge accepted that, We’d still have first round picks to make every year. That Ainge insisted on those protected picks being included further suggest that both Aller and Ainge valued them similarly.

“As a reward, there’s a decent chance we will be the best non-playoff team in the NBA for a second consecutive season. That’s literally the worst place to be, but hey, he didn’t make the bad trade!”

The worst place to be not good enough to contend, old, capped out, and without picks. That’s when you blow it up. We are very young and have plenty of picks. The team construction needs some tweaking and we have to draft, trade for, or develop a #1 option, but Leon knows that too. If Mitchell was the right player, we could have pulled this deal off. He wasn’t the right player. There will be other actual star two way players that are unhappy in their situation eventually. It’s a different kid of waiting than “We suck, we have to hope to win the lottery, we have to hope there is a true star available, we have to develop him”. That’s how we got KP and RJ .

If you’re thinking “it sounds reckless to do that before we even know if the team will be good,” congratulations, you’ve realized Leon Rose’s plan sucks.

I literally laughed out loud.

I think we have to be dialectical here, though. Leon’s plan sucked but we’re still in a decent position.

The fact that Leon spent the whole summer actively trying to tank that position concerns me. But all it will take is an apple to fall on his head for him to wake up and start making the right choices.

“The obvious lesson of the Mitchell saga is that the league values picks quite highly. That was literally the difference between the Cavs’ and Knicks’ offers.”

NO

The number of picks it was taking to transact for a star player was higher this off season than in the past because the picks were seen as less valuable (see Gobert too). Of course you could still use them as an asset. You just had to give up MORE of them.

Ainge wanted either the Cavs better young players or unprotected picks. When the Cavs wouldn’t give up their best players (because they valued them so highly knowing what they already had) they had to raise the number of picks (that they valued less).

Yes, the Jazz accepted the offer with the highest number of picks.

This is supposed to prove that picks are not highly valued, apparently.

“They project to be pretty damn good immediately with a lot of room for growth. It’s easy to pretend we know the future wherein they top out as a conference semi-finalist (something we’ve achieved once in this millennium) and critique them based on that, but the upside is there. They’re doing circles on us when it comes to talent accumulation.”

They are a finished product with no remaining draft assets. We are far from being one and have tons of draft assets. It’s an unfair comparison at this time. Let’s see how things look in 2-3 years.

I see what Strat is saying. Today it takes 4 picks to get what used to cost 3 picks.

I don’t think that means picks are less valuable, though, strat. It means teams trading a superstar want more of them bc they are so valuable and this is the only way to get them.

When you sell something and you have at least two bidders you ALWAYS make sure to give the chance for a counteroffer. Unless You are stupid.

*3 unprotected firsts

I meant 3 instead of 2 in my earlier comment.

I think OKC is in a good position to be able to trade SGA and not worry because they can play Giddey at the 1 and let everyone else score. I think Giddey is underrated. Whatever “it” is..he has the same “it” that Jason Kidd had when it came to running an offense and being a 2 way player. He’s not as good as Kidd, but he’s special. Once Holmgren is back, that team will be so much fun to watch with guys like Holmgren, Poku, Mann, Giddey, Maledon, Dieng- and if they accept my trade idea, Grimes and Cam. Plus they will have a guy in Randle who can take pressure off the young guys by getting 20-10-5 every night- or at least being a threat to do so.

A guy can dream, right?

Those who whine for losing Spider would they ve been celebrating if we’ve gotten him by giving more than Cleveland or still whine for overpaying?
Fairly

and if they accept my trade idea

I’m leaning towards PJ being Leon Rose, that’s why he knows OKC can accept his trade proposal. 😀

I still would like to see a trade happen, for us to better balance the team and to clear PT for all the players we need to develop. After that, and although i want more things out of the season, i think the 2 most critical things i want to see is Brunson keeping, or improving, the level of play he shown last year. The worst thing that can happen this season is Brunson having some kind of 2021-22 Randle meltdown. And then it’s RJ, our (bright) future is tied to RJ having a breakout season. I hope he can do it, and if he can, it can solve a lot of the problems we’re seeing now in the current plan.

According to my pedestrian wish plan Leon Rose builds the nest, waits for the right bird to come, preferably a magpie superstar and then goes for the ring.
The plan is there and Patiently executed imo

I think it’s a reach to say that Leon didn’t get the difference between a current protected pick and an unprotected pick several years out. In fact, his willingness to part with the protected picks but not the unprotected picks, or to demand protections on that third pick, suggests the opposite.

I get what you’re saying. I should have been more clear.

I think when Leon was acquiring these picks, he overestimated the value they would have to other teams.

I think he thought “5 first round picks” was going to be a haul that other teams would covet. But these negotiations showed that Ainge was not excited about those picks, and I think most executives wouldn’t be, either.

Put another way: I think Ochai Agbaji and Quentin Grimes had more value than two or even 3 of those future protected picks. I’m optimistic this will get Leon to start making those picks instead of trading them.

@cyber

LOL!
Nothing to see here..

We’re quite a ways into the Leon Rose experiment now, and his hallmark seems to be “at least he didn’t do that awful thing” and not “wow he did this great thing.” Meanwhile the team is on a treadmill of mediocrity, apparently stuck in the 8-11 seed range, with some of the better young players blocked by what appears to be overpriced veterans.

These various trying-to-be-clever paper clip trades in which Leon converts first round picks into a bunch of less valuable first round picks also doesn’t seem to be panning out. Everything is a punt with this guy. The powder is really, really dry.

He’s uniquely good at keeping his job, I’ll give him that.

Man, I’m loving some of the usernames here. Downtown Boogie Brown?! I think it is…or maybe Doogie Brown?

I’m fine with no trade for Mitchell. Still hoping for a Randle sell off without having to give up a 1st rounder, but I guess that’s just a pipe dream.

Maybe if Leon is heartbroken over losing out on Mitchell, he’ll be willing to go with more of a “play the kids” approach to the season? Yeah, probably not.

I think everyone is underestimating our place in the East’s pecking order.

Milwaukee, Miami, Brooklyn, Boston, and Philadelphia are the 5 Tier 1 teams.

Then it’s us, Toronto, Chicago, Atlanta, and Cleveland.

In terms of high end talent, Atlanta and Cleveland are above us but I think our ability to navigate an 82 game season is better than theirs.

I expect us to be in a dog fight for the 6 seed. This season should be fun.

“Put another way: I think Ochai Agbaji and Quentin Grimes had more value than two or even 3 of those future protected picks. I’m optimistic this will get Leon to start making those picks instead of trading them.”

Are you saying that if we had drafted Agbaji rather than executing the trades that led to the 4-pick stash, we could have just thrown him in to the initial deal with 3 future unprotected picks and it would have worked?

Because my understanding is that Ainge refused that initial deal because he wanted 7 picks, and probably would have settled for 6.

I’ve been pretty consistent in saying that under no circumstances should the Knicks part with any unprotected picks beyond 2026 (or 2027 if only 2 were involved.) That 2029 pick is by far the most desirable asset in the cache Ainge was demanding, and that he got that from the Cavs is a coup for him. 7 years is an eternity for an NBA franchise, and picks 7 years out are crown jewels of any franchise.

So if Leon thought that 3 soon-to-convey protected picks were worth more in a deal than a 2029 unprotected pick, he was surely dumb for thinking so.

However, that does not equate to 3 protected picks (with the specific protections of the ones we acquired) are worth less than Agbaji. They were definitely factors in this deal, but just not enough to entice Ainge off of his obsession with 2029. And good for him!

“2)The FO overestimated the value of all the protected picks they’ve acquired,”

This was obvious during the Spida negotiations. I’m not surprised, because the FO is stupid, but since they gave up a low lottery pick for the three non-Dallas protected 1s, the value of said 1s is roughly … wait for it … a low lottery pick. Then when you take into account the fact that the Knicks were a motivated seller and not real smart and the buyer, OKC, actually is smart, the true value is probably even less than a low lottery pick.

There was no reason to believe Ainge would have valued those three any higher than that. No one with a brain would.

Agbaji was one of the primary guys that drove Grimes away from KU and to Houston. He’s got a chance to be a nice player. I’d just as soon the Knicks had drafted him than do whatever in the hell it was that they did.

“We’re quite a ways into the Leon Rose experiment now, and his hallmark seems to be “at least he didn’t do that awful thing” and not “wow he did this great thing.” Meanwhile the team is on a treadmill of mediocrity, apparently stuck in the 8-11 seed range, with some of the better young players blocked by what appears to be overpriced veterans.”

I guess you can look at this way, although it seems like the most cynical take possible given the circumstances. You seem to have already shut the door on significant improvements from RJ, Mitch, Grimes, IQ, Obi and Hartenstein. You seem to be saying that prying Brunson out of Mark Cuban’s clenched hands was no big deal. You seem to be saying that having all those picks still at our disposal when the roster is so crowded that some of our recent picks like Sims and McBride will not get off the bench is a negative, or conversely, that having Daniel Oturu, Kai Jones and Tari Eason on the roster would have us in better position to make upgrades than we are right now.

Like you and others, I would have preferred a different path, but we’re a hell of a lot better off than we were when Leon took over, with a much higher ceiling in the next 5 years than we’ve had since Ewing was on the team. Sorry you can’t feel the least bit excited about that. I sure do!

No, I’m not saying that. I don’t think there was ever a chance of the deal working without our 2025-2029 unprotected picks.

The most frustrating part of Leon’s tenure here has been his unwillingness to use draft picks on players. He seems to think it’s better to preserve the idea that you have a stash of picks than to select a promising player.

I’m optimistic that these negotiations informed Leon that an Ochai Agbaji or a Quentin Grimes today is worth more than a top 18 protected pick three years from now. And that the best way for him to convert all these picks into trade assets is to use them all and hope one of them hits instead of hoarding them for a day that never comes.

We have two picks in the 2023 draft, and god willing, we might actually use them.

I would also reserve judgment on roster construction/playing time issues until the season starts. We are still in the aftermath of an all-consuming blockbuster trade effort being derailed, and there’s no telling what’s moved to the front burner. I’m going to savor the afterglow of this dodged disaster and wait to see what happens in the next few weeks before getting bummed about anything.

“Gist is: 1)Leon really wanted Mitchell and was shocked when Ainge didn’t give them one last chance to counter,”

That’s interesting, because “shocked” was the word Berman used in his recent article on the matter. If you do your Kremlinology, the only two leakers that make sense would be Leon — and then he would have leaked it to try to tell people Dolan made him resign RJ — or Thibodeau, who’s so clueless and lame that I barely even want to think about him anymore. I have zero interest in that fool running it back with his vets and “trying to win.”

Needless to say, the spectacle of the Knicks resigning RJ and then the tabloids running a big story saying no one really wanted to resign him was yet another dysfunctional LOLKnicks episode. As if the guy was signed by immaculate conception or something.

This kind of weirdo front office is never going to be able to compete with the other front offices in the association. It is just not going to happen.

“The most frustrating part of Leon’s tenure here has been his unwillingness to use ALL OF HIS draft picks on players.”

There, fixed that for you.

And I don’t believe that either. I think you are frustrated that he didn’t get commensurate return for the 2020 2nd and the 2021 first. You seemed more okay with the return on the 2022 first, is that fair?

“I just don’t see the point of this roster.”

None of what Leon Rose has done, strategically, philosophically, or tactically has made any sense since the day he took over. People are confusing “not every single move he’s made has been a disaster and a couple of them have even actually been good” (*) with having a sensible plan or objective. And then the Covid year got people optimistic, even though there were storm clouds everywhere. They were discussed on KB even during the Covid season and they absolutely were discussed during and in the wake of the Hawks playoff debacle.

Which is fine — fans can be optimistic if that’s their nature and desire. Leon Rose is paid to see the storm clouds. He failed miserably.

(*) And even the good moves — the drafting of Toppin and Quickley — are offset by the coach he hired. And now said coach from all indications is starting to have a very strange obsession with one of his young players, Quinton Grimes, beyond all reason.

This team and roster were never even CLOSE to being in a position to punt/incinerate/char current draft picks. Full stop. This is a discussion forum, so it’s certainly a topic that’s open to discussion — but there’s no serious debate. This team punting current draft picks is/was utterly clueless.

“You seemed more okay with the return on the 2022 first, is that fair?”

*I should amplify that there were numerous draft-day transactions in the past 3 years and that two particular transactions were, in your eyes, very bad, but there were also several good to very good ones…e.g. trading 32 for 34 and 36, and some good non-trades made, e.g. trading up for Obi.

“E, all merc’d outsays:
September 5, 2022 at 12:50
This team and roster were never even CLOSE to being in a position to punt/incinerate/char current draft picks. Full stop. This is a discussion forum, so it’s certainly a topic that’s open to discussion — but there’s no serious debate. This team punting draft picks is utterly clueless.”

Sure.

“We made 2 solid long term acquisitions in free agency and have a lot of young players that can move forward. There’s still a lot of work to do, but there always is with rebuilding teams.”

Everyone was optimistic about last offseason, too, saying much the same kind of things — and it was an abject disaster.

If somehow the Knicks can get SGA for a smaller haul than it would have taken to land Donovan Mitchell, this Knicks fan would be much happier. He’s by far a better fit with Brunson than Spida. I wonder what it would take.

“E, all merc’d outsays:
September 5, 2022 at 12:57 PM

“Everyone was optimistic about last offseason, too, saying much the same kind of things”

Not true

” — and it was an abject disaster.”

Also not true.

We’re quite a ways into the Leon Rose experiment now, and his hallmark seems to be “at least he didn’t do that awful thing”

***********************

Signing Julius Randle to that contract was pretty awful. Using all his cap space last summer on Kemba Walker, Derrick Rose, Evan Fournier, Nerlens Noel, and Alec Burks similarly pretty awful.

He’s made a ton of really bad moves. He hired a stupid coach and has spent all his time “trying to win” and in the process running up a bunch of future-killing marginal wins. I guess you can squint and pedant and say none of his specific personnel moves were a “disaster” but so what? You can not make any “disastrous” moves and still be a lame GM.

“If the Knicks want to trade for stars, and I’m assuming they do because they’ve cut off all other pathways to getting elite talent, they’re going to have to trade unprotected picks, and a lot of them.”

You need to breath into a paper bag, lol (just kidding, really I’m not worthy). But this is LITERALLY untrue. They have all pathways open. Picks to trade or use. Actually, cap space would be the issue right now, if it was FA season, which it is not. But I think they have multiple paths to create that.

“Also not true.”

*****************

The only way it’s not true is if you’re blatantly in the tank for the guy. Which you clearly are. Not sure why, exactly, and it probably doesn’t matter, but you clearly are.

By the way, Z, I liked how in the last thread you noted that I said I hated the Randle signing on the day he signed but I said a bunch of “demonstrably untrue” things and then I looked at the thread and I listed five reasons and all of them not only weren’t “untrue,” they were spot-on true. Nice work.

@TheClashFan

It’s “Downtown Doogie Brown,” as you can see here. My name is Doug, and “Doogie” was one of my very many nicknames when I was much younger. Downtown Freddie Brown of the Seattle SuperSonics was one of the NBA’s premier three-point shooters when teams only took around 10 of those shots per game, so my handle here is some conglomeration of my nickname, Downtown Freddie Brown, and my proclivity for taking long shots at the basket and hitting them often enough to be recognized as being OK at it. I mean, I’m 5’7″ on a good day—what else was I supposed to do?

Forgive one more music post, related to yesterday.

please, i appreciate your words and thoughts very much dan, particularly when they’re not so much about basketball but rather music and locale focused…

i think i meant that as a compliment 😛

In my experience, people believe the hype. They may pretend they enjoy something mediocre or completely ignore something amazing. I had to learn to trust my instincts because I always had an inferiority complex that I didn’t know how to have fun. But music is a bus man’s holiday for me.

i keep thinking about what you wrote yesterday, i’m not sure i understand though…

But music is a bus man’s holiday for me

if you get the chance, just wondering what does this mean?

We’re quite a ways into the Leon Rose experiment now, and his hallmark seems to be “at least he didn’t do that awful thing”

wut?!?!?

c’mon JK, you gotta legit twist yourself to get THERE…

or is that just some of the famous new york hyperbole i hear so much about..

You seemed more okay with the return on the 2022 first, is that fair?

The trade down two spots was manna from Presti. I was thrilled with that trade.

Sending the 13th pick to Detroit disappointed me greatly but I took a wait and see approach. I’ve waited and now I’m certain I’ve rather have taken a player than the Milwaukee pick.

thinking about some of the RJ stuff…looking back on the evian signing…

other than: brunson, quik, and rose – is there anyone else on the team who can “shoot off the dribble”?

if we can get evian and RJ more open looks, not let julius shoot beyond 10 feet – i can 100% see us creeping in to the top half of the league in offense…

i think a lot of our defense this year is going to rest on julius’ new found commitment to team ball…i expect mitch to start much better this year…those two guys can dominate the boards…

not saying we’ll win 50 games, or maybe not even 45, but, we “should” be at least a .500 squad with our defense and rebounding…

think about it – jalen brunson and derrick rose running the point for us all game…that’s got to make a big difference…

@DDB
Yeah, Downtown Freddie Brown was the first thing I thought of when I saw your username. Man, I’m old… That and also Bad Bad Leroy Brown, if you recall that song by Jim Croce.

Since you are Downtown Doogie Brown, I may just steal Downtown Boogie Brown for my own use.
🙂

“Sending the 13th pick to Detroit disappointed me greatly but I took a wait and see approach. I’ve waited and now I’m certain I’ve rather have taken a player than the Milwaukee pick.”

That’s very fair, but remember that the loss in value was part of a salary dump. It was about erasing a past mistake(s) and those are certainly fair game, but my point is that it wasn’t a straight swap.

We didn’t need to use the 13th pick in the draft to dump one year of Kemba Walker. That could have been easily accomplished with one of the heavily protected picks or even the stretch provision.

There still remains a chance that Milwaukee pick pays off but there were good players there just like there were good players at 19.

I am willing to write it off as part of the learning curve but he needs to actually learn it. We have two picks in the draft this year and I hope we don’t see any more of this BS.

Hi Geo,
Bus driver gets on a bus to go on holiday.

When it’s music all day and night. You’re not always as down as others to go hear something. Again, not trying to be a snob. Part of why I love basketball is that I’m amateur at it. I’d go see the Westchester Knicks or a Sienna game in a heartbeat. Basketball is magic. Music has been demystified (sort of, I mean, not Scarlatti)

Just a thought..

The team really should keep Fournier. Even with him on the downside of his career- he’s still a better player than a Duncan Robinson will ever be on a similar deal. That jumper doesn’t age. Thibs should absolutely give him a bunch of minutes as sort of a bridge between the starters and the bench unit. He’s a guy who can play well with either unit, though he’s a better fit with the 2nd unit. I’m imagining a starting 5 of Mitch/Randle/RJ/Grimes/Brunson setting a nice tone, with it being more pace and bombs away with Obi relentlessly attacking the rim with the spacing on that second unit of Hartenstein/Obi/Fournier/Quickley/Rose. But Thibs absolutely has got to shorten the leash on Randle for it to work. Historically, Jules has been more efficient and effective playing 28-32 minutes tops with less shot creation responsibilities. We do have a roster set up to allow that to happen- Thibs just has to curb his stubbornness a bit. I don’t think he’s a dumb coach or whatever- he’s just painfully stubborn at times. That’s what I worry about this season with no Woodson or Payne on the bench to offset that. Maybe it’s time for Bryant to be more assertive in his role to help with that. He’s essentially the only option to be that buffer because the rest of the staff will blindly do Thibs’ bidding

There’s no possible payoff there warranting a “learning curve.” Dude’s a 60-year-old player agent.

oh shit, I think I get that…thank you dan…

truly than, music/art as a lifestyle?

something that you engage with near daily?

I think you’re right, E. But he’s still here so what are you gonna do?

I must admit I did not know who Ochai Agbaji was a week ago but now that I do I am gutted we forfeited the opportunity to draft him. You can’t have enough good wings in this league and a trio of him, RJ, and Grimes would have gone a long way.

nothing wrong with evian- other than the fact that he is mortally fearful of touching the ball after it’s hit the rim or backboard…

evian was one of the few folks who could break a game down in the post game interviews…

he has athletic limitations, but he is/was a good signing…

we need to recoup evian’s and julius’ value…not let someone else profit from our terrible roster construction, terrible coaching, terrible “lead” player play…

i came here to find out if magnus was cheated and all i see is people being wrong about basketball

i give thibs til sometime in january…if the offense still looks bad, see how the team responds to johnny bryant…

brunson, evian, RJ, julius, mitch

rose, grimes, obi, hart, quik

sims and hopefully hunt may get some play…deuce’s time with the knicks may be coming to an end…

Given the choice between making a very bad trade for Donovan Mitchell and not making a very bad trade for Donovan Mitchell I’m surprised a bunch of you are upset we didn’t make a deal. The rest is kremlinology. We don’t really know if Leon was shocked that Danny didn’t get back to him, or whatever.

“Given the choice between making a very bad trade for Donovan Mitchell and not making a very bad trade for Donovan Mitchell I’m surprised a bunch of you are upset we didn’t make a deal. ”

Some Knicks fans say they are patient and want to rebuild the right way but will complain every year unless we land the premier available player in a trade or free agency (apparently no matter what the price or fit).

Some Knicks fans aren’t going to be happy until we blow this team up in 7-10 years and then tank repeatedly until we draft a #1 and #2 option via lottery and selection luck and win a championship in 2040 the way they want to.

Some Knicks fans want to see the team make logical value oriented moves in the draft, free agency, and trade markets each off season given the environment and opportunities and will be happy as long there is logic in the team building and steady upward progress towards our goal of contention.

“i came here to find out if magnus was cheated”

They better check for implants, 🙂

There’s nothing wrong with Fournier as a floor spacing role player on a team that’s solid defensively. On the Knicks he was being asked to take on a more diversified role in the offense and combining him with Kemba was disastrous on defense. Personally, my ideal outcome would be Grimes winning the starting SG spot and Reddish winning the backup SF position. Then we are looking at Brunson/Grimes/RJ/Randle/Robinson and Rose/Quickly/Reddish/Obi/Hart.

Of course we don’t know if any trades are still coming that could change that.

I think it’s fair to say they didn’t draft this past year because they wanted Jaden Ivey, weren’t able to trade up, and weren’t particularly interested in the players available at #11 at the price.

They also wanted to open space to land Brunson (a success) and roll out as much pick value as possible to use as currency in trades this summer and in the future.

I think it’s fair to question whether there was someone at #11 they should have selected, whether they got enough pick value back for #11, and whether not finding a trade worth doing with some of that pick value represents a failure (even if there wasn’t a logical one available).

“Everyone was optimistic about last offseason, too, saying much the same kind of things”

” — and it was an abject disaster.”

Last year Rose learned the same lesson that fans and previous Knicks managements before him had to learn (repeatedly). NY is a big and attractive market compared to places like OKC, Utah, Indiana etc… who have to build via draft. But the team itself has to be seen as close enough to contention to take advantage of the market and bring top players to NY. We went into the off season last year looking better, but no one was convinced yet. When you have a ton of cap space, but none of the best players want to come to your team, you have to use the cap space somehow. If you still intend on using all avenues to rebuild as Rose did, then you are basically reduced to hiring mercenaries until you slowly get over the hump or have unique situation like Brunson. I think we are over the hump now. The fact that we got Brunson and then Mitchell wanted NY is strong evidence of that. If we made any mistake it was the length of Fournier’s contract (1 year too long for a mercenary). Some of the others would have been better on 1 year, but they just gave us a terrific single year on the cheap and wanted more security. The way worked out was not ideal because we needed the space for Brunson, but it was far from a disaster.

The trade from 11 to 13 was an outstanding one.

The trade from 13 to 2025 just to dump Kemba was not so good.

I was happy to let things play out before criticizing it, but they have now and I think it looks really bad.

And while I am happy we didn’t trade for Mitchell, it would be a lot cooler if we had a fresh new lottery pick on the team.

What’s great about the current situation is that unless you consider Cam, who probably won’t be on the roster much longer, we are not really on the clock for any contracts. Obi and IQ are 2 years out before considering extensions, Grimes is 3 years out. RJ, Mitch, Brunson, Randle(oh well), Fournier(oh well), Hartenstein, and even McBride, Sims, Keels and Rokas are under team control for multiple years.

“I think it’s fair to say they didn’t draft this past year because they wanted Jaden Ivey, weren’t able to trade up, and weren’t particularly interested in the players available at #11 at the price. ”

**************************

But that’s pathetic though. No other team, even really good teams, think this way. And they aren’t even close to good enough to be punting on lottery picks. It’s pathetic that they think that they are. (Not just “stupid,” not just “misguided,” but pathetic.)

“Last year Rose learned the same lesson”

**********

Leon Rose and his “learning” again. The other teams have GMs who … you know … know basketball. The Knicks have a guy who has some special journey of personal growth to which, apparently, close attention must be paid.

Not interested. While he’s “learning” and “growing,” he’s also “making stupid mistakes.” While the other teams are doing things like “drafting players” and “accumulating assets” and “improving” and “competing for championships.”

“Space Invadersays:
September 5, 2022 at 18:03
The trade from 11 to 13 was an outstanding one.

The trade from 13 to 2025 just to dump Kemba was not so good.

I was happy to let things play out before criticizing it, but they have now and I think it looks really bad.

And while I am happy we didn’t trade for Mitchell, it would be a lot cooler if we had a fresh new lottery pick on the team.”

It’s a fair critique, but mostly about personal preference. The job of Brock Aller is to micromanage the cap. If you make a pick at #13, you are locked into a cap hit of $3.28M. If you stretch Kemba instead of trading for him, your dead cap hit is around $3M per year for the next 3 years.

So by not picking at #13, you essentially traded #13 + Kemba for Milwaukee’s top-4 protected #1 pick in 2025 and $6.2M in cap space. That may not be “cool” but it’s not insane either, especially since cap space was needed for the Brunson offer.

Jeremy on KFS does a really good job of explaining cap considerations and my recollection is that he saw the logic in the deal and was fine with it. Don’t hold me to that, though.

But my recollection is that opening up sufficient cap space was essential to acquiring Brunson once Cuban balked on a sign-and-trade.

They only needed to open up cap space because they wasted it in the summer of 2021. They actually gave up way too much to free up the space to sign Brunson. He’s a nice player, but he isn’t worth all that. He’s not the kind of guy you burn a lottery pick to sign. If they lose another first for tampering, that makes the whole thing even lamer.

But I guess Leon has to hop on the learning curve again and learn his lessons about tampering and about signing useless mercs …. So it’s all good.

With the collapse of the Spida trade, Knicks over-under is down to 38.5 wins. Leon has sure mastered how to get himself into the perfect spot of being the best or second best non-playoff team.

“And while I am happy we didn’t trade for Mitchell, it would be a lot cooler if we had a fresh new lottery pick on the team.”

So Thibs can bench him all year!? No thanks.

Let’s not act like it was necessary to trade a lottery pick to acquire Brunson. Just because that’s the path Leon chose doesn’t mean it was the only path available.

“Leon Rose and his “learning” again. The other teams have GMs who … you know … know basketball. The Knicks have a guy who has some special journey of personal growth to which, apparently, close attention must be paid.

Not interested.”

From 2014-15, The Heat have had the following records: 37-45, 48-34, 41-41, 44-38, 39-43, 44-29, 40-32, and 53-29. The best player they drafted over that span was Bam Adebayo at #14. The best FA they signed is Jimmy Butler, who has never made it above all-NBA third team or all-NBA defensive second team.

So is Leon Rose is as incompetent as the Heat, and the treadmill of mediocrity we are on is similar to the one that they are on, in that one FA signing we make is a Jimmy Butler-level player and the one star we find in the draft is picked at #14, I’m down for that treadmill. PS sounds like Riley whiffed on both Brunson and Mitchell…what a bum!

I guess if you think there’s some actual comparison between the Knicks’ path and the Heat’s path, that explains an awful lot.

Nor was Pat Riley ever on some kind of “learning process.”

“Space Invadersays:
September 5, 2022 at 18:43
Let’s not act like it was necessary to trade a lottery pick to acquire Brunson. Just because that’s the path Leon chose doesn’t mean it was the only path available.”

Okay. Then let’s also not act like a #13 pick in a shitty draft is some kind of treasure by calling it a lottery pick. Creating the cap space on the fly was going to cost something.

PS: a top 5-protected pick in the 2025 draft from any team totally dependent on the health of a single player is a pretty nice asset.

It wasn’t a “shitty draft.” That’s just shilling.

And, yes, the 13th pick in the draft is a “lottery pick.” Much as you try, you don’t just get to invent definitions of known words.

“Creating the cap space on the fly was going to cost something. ”

Name a single time in NBA history that a lottery pick was attached to a trade to generate $7M in cap space. I’ll make it easier. Name a single time in NBA history that a lottery pick was attached to move an asset or to generate anything. Boston attached 16 to move Kemba’s terrible contract, but no team has ever attached 11 to do something like that — or like anything else similar.

“E, all merc’d outsays:
September 5, 2022 at 18:59
I guess if you think there’s some actual comparison between the Knicks’ path and the Heat’s path, that explains an awful lot.

Nor was Pat Riley ever on some kind of “learning process.””

The main difference is that they signed Jimmy Butler in a 4-way sign and trade to clear cap space, drafted Bam Adebayo six picks after we drafted Frank Ntilikina, and then drafted Herro 10 picks after we drafted RJ Barrett. Throw in a whiff on drafting Kevin Knox ahead of any the obviously better picks drafted just after him and you essentially have the difference between us and Miami. None of that stuff happened under Leon. Since then, they have filled their roster with aging stars, mercs and successfully developing finds in the second round and UDFAs.

Then let’s also not act like a #13 pick in a shitty draft is some kind of treasure by calling it a lottery pick. Creating the cap space on the fly was going to cost something.

Your commitment to Leon Can Do No Wrong has taken you to some crazy places but this one might take the cake.

OK, yes, the main difference is that Pat Riley has drafted Bam Adebayo and signed Jimmy Butler and Leon Rose hasn’t drafted or signed anybody close to that good. And then filled in around that with people like Tyler Herro (drafted with one of them there non-lottery 13th picks) and Duncan Robinson, while Leon Rose has done things like sell off the 11th pick to clear cap space to chase Jalen Brunson.

I’m sold.

“Your commitment to Leon Can Do No Wrong has taken you to some crazy places but this one might take the cake.”

It kind of makes it impossible to have an honest debate when you take every point I make to some kind of extreme that doesn’t even match up with what I’ve said in this very thread and the previous post-site rebuild ones. If you are a patient and thorough reader, I’m sure you can find plenty of flaws I have pointed out about Leon, including the most important original sin of hiring Thibs and foregoing a complete rebuild.

It is especially ironic because you are the one who came off all warm and fuzzy about Leon’s job performance this summer and is predicting that this team as currently constructed will win in the mid-high 40s, while I think they will surely finish under .500 again, are surely in the play-in, and are probably back in the lottery (Vegas has us at 39.5, boy are they dumb!)

So let me get this straight, you are faulting me for being too optimistic when I am far less optimistic than you?!

Quickley is better than Robinson or Herro.

“Leon Rose hasn’t drafted or signed anybody close to that good.”

Not yet, anyway.

“And then filled in around that with people like Tyler Herro (drafted with one of them there non-lottery 13th picks)”

Interesting that Ainge seemed to value non-lottery Quentin Grimes more than Tyler Herro…

“Leon Rose has done things like sell off the 11th pick to clear cap space to chase Jalen Brunson.”

Who Riley himself coveted. So we used the 11th pick and 4 second rounders for Jalen Brunson and future 3 first rounders. God help us!!

“DRedsays:
September 5, 2022 at 20:03
Quickley is better than Robinson or Herro.”

Quite possibly true. And may be true about Grimes and Obi as well. But hey, haterz gotta hate!

PS when I say we are “surely” finishing below .500, this is on paper, and is assuming that nothing dramatic happens. What I’m essentially saying is that the Vegas line is quite reasonable. If any or all of our young players make huge jumps and Randle comes back to his better side, sure, we can get on up into the 40’s.

So they’ve gone from 46 to 39 to a projected 38.5 wins, even after finally signing a “major free agent.” And the 38.5 wins is perfectly situated to not get them into the playoffs but to be the “best” of the non-playoff teams. Yet again.

All is well!!

Right. They are floating around .500 with tons of draft assets and promising young players on either rookie deals (Obi, IQ, Grimes, Sims, etc.)or reasonable non-max deals (RJ, Mitch, Hart, Brunson).

Let’s not forget that the great Pat Riley drafted Michael Beasley at #2, or maxed Hassan Whiteside, or matched Tyler Johnson, or hugely overpayed Dion Waiters, and now Duncan Robinson, and has squandered so many assets that he couldn’t compete for Donovan Mitchell or even Jalen Brunson.

“E, all merc’d outsays:
September 5, 2022 at 20:24
So they’ve gone from 46 to 39 to a projected 38.5 wins, even after finally signing a “major free agent.” And the 38.5 wins is perfectly situated to not get them into the playoffs but to be the “best” of the non-playoff teams. Yet again.

All is well!!”

If they win 39 or more games largely on the backs of RJ, Mitch, Grimes, Brunson, Obi, IQ and Hart, that would be an amazing development.

They don’t have “tons of draft assets.” That’s just shilling. They don’t even have a single extra unprotected pick. They have a few extra 1s that project to be in like the 20s and might even be worse. The last time they had someone else’s unprotected pick, they incinerated/charred it, and they’re one draft removed from not even making a lottery pick.

Combine all the extras and they’re worth like a low lottery pick — the value Ainge put on them. An extra low lottery pick is nice, to be sure (assuming they don’t incinerate it again), but to call it “tons of draft assets” is quite the stretch. It’s nothing close to that.

“Given the choice between making a very bad trade for Donovan Mitchell and not making a very bad trade for Donovan Mitchell I’m surprised a bunch of you are upset we didn’t make a deal.”

I’m upset that we had to choose between making a bad trade for Donovan Mitchell, or maintaining a bad status quo.

I understand the objection on this point will be that the status quo isn’t bad. I simply don’t know what to tell anyone who thinks “.500 with no cap space, and likely no all-stars” is something other than bad.

We’ll probably win 37-43 games, either miss the playoffs entirely or make the play-in, pick 9-12th, and lose a year on the few valuable deals we do have on the roster. We’re not close to getting the kind of player(s) who can break us out of this purgatory.

In a league wide re-draft only the Spurs, who have better surplus draft assets than us and will be picking very highly in the upcoming draft, would have a player taken after us. I can’t be convinced this is all good and well.

Obviously, it is possible that unexpected good things happen e.g. an RJ quantum leap and everything looks better. I don’t see it as productive to harangue people for not counting on that kind of thing, though. By definition, unexpected good things are events you cannot count on. It’s also just as likely unexpected bad things happen–we literally just saw Julius Randle become unmovable without sweetener in a single season.

“Some Knicks fans aren’t going to be happy until we blow this team up in 7-10 years and then tank repeatedly until we draft a #1 and #2 option via lottery and selection luck and win a championship in 2040 the way they want to.”

Things that don’t take 7-10 years: building through the draft

Things that take 7-10 years: the amount of time that has passed since the Knicks, who have avoided rebuilding through the draft like the plague, have seen the second round of the playoffs.

“E, all merc’d outsays:
September 5, 2022 at 20:42
They don’t have “tons of draft assets.” That’s just shilling. They don’t even have a single extra unprotected pick. They have a few extra 1s that project to be in like the 20s and might even be worse. The last time they had someone else’s unprotected pick, they incinerated/charred it, and they’re one draft removed from not even making a lottery pick.

Combine all the extras and they’re worth like a low lottery pick — the value Ainge put on them. An extra low lottery pick is nice, to be sure (assuming they don’t incinerate it again), but to call it “tons of draft assets” is quite the stretch. It’s nothing close to that.”

Really? Hmmm…let’s unpack this.

We have:
Dallas’s 2023 top-10 protected pick. Vegas predicts it will convey this year in the low 20’s. Any chance they finish 11-20? What would it take? Finishing behind GSW, PHX, MEM, LAC, DEN, and MIN and being in the play-in? Is that a terrible bet?

Wizards’ 2023 pick top 14 protected, then top 12 in 2024, then top 10 in 2025, then top 8 in 2026. It is all but certain that this pick conveys somewhere in the teens in the next 3 years, unless you see the Wizards as the surprise team in the East.

Detroit’s 2023 top-18 protected pick in 2023 and 2024 (probably won’t convey) top 13 protected in 2025 (reasonably likely to convey in the teens) top 11 protected in 2026 and top 9 protected in 2027 (if it doesn’t convey by then, the Piston’s rebuild was a complete bust, so much for touting the merits of that route).

Milwaukee’s 2025 top 5 protected: extremely likely to convey, probably in the 20’s barring an early-season injury to Giannis.

We also have all of our own first round picks (unprotected, I might add) and we just found out how valuable those are…do they count?

How many “middling” teams, i.e. play-in level teams, can say that?

If your point is that the 4 protected picks are not worth as much in a trade as a single unprotected pick, I disagree. for example, you brought up Dallas’ unprotected pick that conveyed at #19. Do you think that if Dallas waived its protections on the 2023 pick we own, that it would be much more valuable in a trade than the pick with the top-10 protections?

And it was kind of weird that you brought up the trading away the Dallas 2021 unprotected pick AFTER we knew that it would convey at #19, no lower or higher, as some travesty, yet you dismiss all the protected picks that we own that are reasonably likely to convey at #19 or higher. Make up your mind!

The constant paper clip trades with the draft picks is the most annoying part of the Leon Rose regime so far. Take one decent asset, turn it into 1-3 less good assets, then when it’s time to cash in those assets, trade them for 1-3 other less good assets. It’s a cute trick but it’s not accomplishing anything.

They’ve actually done a pretty decent job with the guys they have selected, which makes it extra annoying.

“In a league wide re-draft only the Spurs, who have better surplus draft assets than us and will be picking very highly in the upcoming draft, would have a player taken after us. I can’t be convinced this is all good and well.”

Not sure what this really proves…I mean you were terrified that we’d lose Mitch for nothing, and we didn’t. You were afraid we’d grossly overpay for Mitchell (which would have ended the league-wide redraft hex) and we didn’t. You hated the Obi pick and now you are distressed that he doesn’t play enough. You didn’t want to max RJ and he wasn’t even close to maxed. You didn’t think we’d get Brunson and we did. You liked the Hartenstein deal.

I mean, even Hubert is praising Leon’s performance this offseason!

And yet your assessment is: “we’re still bad with no reasonable path to being good anytime soon.”

Okay.

“JK47says:
September 5, 2022 at 21:37
The constant paper clip trades with the draft picks is the most annoying part of the Leon Rose regime so far. Take one decent asset, turn it into 1-3 less good assets, then when it’s time to cash in those assets, trade them for 1-3 other less good assets. It’s a cute trick but it’s not accomplishing anything.”

That’s the same as not going all in on a questionable hand accomplishes nothing. The reality is that you lose only a couple of ante’s worth of value as you wait for a hand with a better chance of winning, even at the risk of the hand not being as good.

“They’ve actually done a pretty decent job with the guys they have selected, which makes it extra annoying.”

So if you trust them to get good value in the picks they make, why don’t you trust them when they feel that there isn’t enough value at a particular spot to clutter up the cap and the roster with what the odds say is a likely non-rotation player who won’t give the team any surplus value over his rookie deal?

It kind of makes it impossible to have an honest debate when you take every point I make to some kind of extreme that doesn’t even match up with what I’ve said in this very thread and the previous post-site rebuild ones.

Z-Man, in defense of Leon, you insisted I shouldn’t call a lottery pick a lottery pick. And then you hand waved away the fact that he overpaid to dump Kemba by saying “there has to be a cost.”

For something like 3 years now you have dutifully responded to every… single… criticism… of Leon Rose. Not one gets by you. Let it go, man. The guy has made plenty of mistakes and he deserves to be called out them.

I have no idea what that list of largely untrue personal attacks has to do with our lack of high-end talent, it certainly doesn’t rebut anything I said, but for the record:

“I mean you were terrified that we’d lose Mitch for nothing, and we didn’t.”

I always, always, always said that IF this happened, it would be bad. Definitely stand by that. Definitely never said it was a foregone conclusion.

“You were afraid we’d grossly overpay for Mitchell (which would have ended the league-wide redraft hex) and we didn’t.”

I don’t think I ever expressed this particular fear, actually. I think you made this up.

“You hated the Obi pick and now you are distressed that he doesn’t play enough.”

Obi was 12th on my board that year and we picked him 8th, so “hated” feels pretty strong.

In any event, the highest player on my board available when we were picking was Haliburton. Definitely stand by that one too.

“You didn’t want to max RJ and he wasn’t even close to maxed.”

He was…fairly close to maxed? The contract is going to be bad if he doesn’t get a hell of a lot better. Definitely stand by everything I said about the risks of giving him a large contract, which we did.

“You didn’t think we’d get Brunson and we did.”

I don’t remember weighing in heavily on the likelihood of this, but I’ll take your word for it because I am genuinely surprised the Mavs went down without a fight.

What exactly does this prove or rebut, though? Because…

“And yet your assessment is: ‘we’re still bad with no reasonable path to being good anytime soon.'”

This is still true!

Who Riley himself coveted. So we used the 11th pick and 4 second rounders for Jalen Brunson and future 3 first rounders. God help us!!

Like this, for example.

The fact that Riley coveted Brunson does not in any way excuse Leon overpaying to dump Kemba’s contract.

The guy had one year, $10MM left. This was the highest price I’ve ever seen paid to dump such a modest contract.

He could have dumped Kemba for less draft equity. This does not need to be argued. And the fact that Pat Riley covets Jalen Brunson doesn’t have shit to do with shinola.

Here’s a thought:
Now that the dust has settled on the Mitchell non-transaction, RJ and Mitch are extended, and Brunson and Hartenstein have been acquired, in terms of trade value, how would you order our current player/draft assets, taking contracts into account?

One could say that the 2029 1st is at the top of the list
Then 2028 1st
Then Brunson
Then 2027 1st
Then Grimes
Then RJ
Then 2026 1st
Then 2025 1st
Then IQ
Then 2024 1st
Then Obi
Then Mitch
Then 2023 1st
Then Hart
Then Dallas 2023 protected
Then Fournier
Then Wizards protected
Then Detroit protected
Then Rose
Then Milwaukee protected
Then Cam

Everything else is pretty much either worth a 2nd rounder or is a negative asset (Randle).

Thoughts?

Oof. Checking in at the end of a holiday weekend to find some KB crankiness.

But I am glad to see a few more folks looking into time shares on Fournier Island. A guy who regularly puts the ball in the net can be useful if used wisely, especially against Boston 😉

Allons-y, mes amis!

“The guy had one year, $10MM left. This was the highest price I’ve ever seen paid to dump such a modest contract.

He could have dumped Kemba for less draft equity.”

This is really a silly reach of an argument. It assumes that a) The Knicks didn’t scour the league for alternatives, b) that this deal wasn’t connected to the other deals made with DET to dump Burks and Noel, and C) there was no time pressure to clear the space before Brunson could be locked up, and d) the difference in value between the top 5 protected MIL pick and #13 pick is greater than whatever you would have paid to unload Kemba in a pinch.

And stretching Kemba would have been a very dumb idea. Dead cap space is never, ever a good thing, especially when you are in hybrid mode and every cap dollar counts.

Thoughts?

The only prime assets on that list are the unprotected picks.

Obi, IQ, and Grimes could each sweeten a trade.

I actually think Derrick Rose could be an attractive target for a contender in the middle of the season if he is healthy. He could fetch a Marcus Morris-like return if we are lucky.

“And the fact that Pat Riley covets Jalen Brunson doesn’t have shit to do with shinola.”

It simply means that Brunson was highly valued by a highly respected GM and worth the cap gymnastics it took to wrangle him away from the Mavs. That Leon was able to pull that off without relinquishing a single asset of note (in fact, acquiring net assets in the process) is, even in your own words, a significant win. Seems like nitpicking to me.

Hubert, you don’t think there’s a single team out there that would give up an unprotected future first for Brunson on his deal right now?

I don’t know. I’m sure Miami would. But if we turn to OKC for SGA, they’re not going to want Brunson. They’re going to want the picks and the kids, just like the Jazz did.

“Space Invadersays:
September 5, 2022 at 22:43
I don’t know. I’m sure Miami would. But if we turn to OKC for SGA, they’re not going to want Brunson. They’re going to want the picks and the kids, just like the Jazz did.”

True, but not all team view various assets the same way. For example, if a team lost its starting PG to injury and was in contention, they might prefer Brunson to the pick. Conversely, had Dallas signed Brunson to the same deal we did and then offered him to us for our 2026 unprotected first, I would think we’d jump on that deal, especially when we have lots of other picks.

In other words, my list wasn’t about what would have the most value in a trade for SGA et. al. with a tanking team. It was relative to trades with all 29 teams in all situations, or conversely, the cost of acquiring that asset if it were held by another similar team. Re: Brunson, I think there’s a break-even point somewhere a couple of years out. I took between the 2027 and 2028 picks but sure, it could be sooner than that. OTOH, the Jazz’s unprotected 2023 pick is probably worth far more than picks 5-7 years out.

That Leon was able to pull that off without relinquishing a single asset of note

*************************

He squandered the 11th pick in the draft to clear less than $7M in cap space.

It’s only the 11th pick in the draft if you call it that, E. If you change the name of the asset to “nothing of note,” then Leon’s done quite well and there’s no reason for all this fuss. You see?

Now if you’ll excuse me, I’m off to spend $500 on a cappuccino because it has to cost something to get caffeinated in the morning.

(Technically it was the 13th pick, btw.)

“You didn’t want to max RJ and he wasn’t even close to maxed.”
He was… fairly close to maxed? The contract is going to be bad if he doesn’t get a hell of a lot better. Definitely stand by everything I said about the risks of giving him a large contract, which we did.

Noble, the contract isn’t as bad as it was first announced. RJ has 3M in incentives each season, if he makes All NBA, All Star and All Defense (1M per). This takes down the guaranteed money to a more palatable 108M across 4 years. The usually mentioned Mikal Bridges signed a 4/91M extension last season. RJ signed a year later, so if we take into account that the cap is expected to rise by 10%, the adjusted Mikal contract would be 4/100M. RJ signed for 8M more guaranteed, so it’s “only” 2M per year. Seems kind of fair value to me. And if he makes the incentives, the contract is a bargain.

“I have no idea what that list of largely untrue personal attacks has to do with our lack of high-end talent, it certainly doesn’t rebut anything I said”

First, characterizing these as personal attacks is surprising, but I certainly didn’t mean any of what I said to be personal, and apologize if you took it that way.

I don’t have the energy to find all the posts that you made referring to the strong possibility of losing Mitch for nothing and how devastating that would be, but my guess is that it numbers in the triple digits. Mitch was an UFA and could have signed anywhere. He chose to stay here. That suggests that the FO is accomplishing what it had hoped to…making NY a destination for free agents…even their own.

You are “surprised” that a shrewd operator like Cuban let Brunson go for nothing, but what does that say about Leon and his team? It’s the single biggest FA get this year, and the Knicks pulled it off. Yet another sign that NYK has become a destination city for FAs.

There are ample reports that Donovan Mitchell preferred to come to NYK. The trade didn’t work out, but it easily could have. What does that say about a) whether we have the assets to compete for top players when they come on the market and b) whether they want to come here? Seems like a very positive development to me. But of course, no such player will become available in the future, not will he want to come here, because we’re bad and our FO doesn’t know what it is doing.

That you would call RJ’s contract “fairly close to the max” sort of makes my overall point, which is that you have a very jaded, black and white view of the overall NYK situation that diminishes the positive and exaggerates the negative. The max for RJ was for a guaranteed $193M over 5 years, with incentives up to $231M. It starts at $33M and goes up to $44M. RJ signed for only 4 years, starting at $24M and goes to $29M. That’s nowhere close to the max and you know it. Furthermore, per Fred Katz, it’s right in line with the median of what surveyed executives around the league said he was worth ($25MAAV). So again, RJ wanted to stay here, rather than test the market and hold out for a better deal as a RFA (see: DeAndre Ayton.) Yet another example that Leon’s approach is working.
Is it perfect? No. But it is far from a “bad” situation. Leon is employing the Pat Riley approach: make your team a preferred destination for disgruntled stars under contract and free agents, and be in a position to have either the cap space or the assets to pounce on opportunities as they arise, while avoiding an overpay that would eliminate future flexibility. Leon wavered by almost overpaying for Mitchell, but he didn’t break and said FU to Ainge by extending RJ to a reasonable extension.

And we get to see what we actually have in RJ, Obi, IQ, Grimes, Mitch, Hart, and even maybe Reddish before putting all the eggs in one basket. The team is more balanced and deep than it is top-heavy and talented, but aside from the uncertainty with Randle, it’s far from a bad situatlon. We’re not trapped here.

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