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Knicks Morning News (2023.09.13) ? KnickerBlogger KnickerBlogger
48 replies on “Knicks Morning News (2023.09.14)”
Regarding the Kevin Porter Jr. situation, Fournier for Porter works under the cap. So there are several things to factor:
1. How much draft compensation would Houston give up just to get this individual off their team?
2. Would that bird-in-hand draft compensation be viewed by the Knicks as more valuable than the two-in-the-bush possibility of a star they could trade for during the season, using Fournier’s salary as part of the package?
3. Would Houston actually view Fournier as someone they could put in their rotation, given their defensive issues?
4. Would the Rose administration care about any potential public blowback for such a deal? Even if they waive Porter the second after the trade is completed, the team would be paying him $15 million for a year. I’m sure James Dolan doesn’t care about those optics, but will his POBO?
Two questions come to mind:
1) If the Knicks traded for KPJ, would they be allowed to include him in a subsequent trade? And if yes, when? (if we can’t trade him, I wouldn’t make the deal unless it was an offer that simply couldn’t be refused, like two unprotected firsts.)
2) If he is acquired and we go into next offseason with him still on the roster, what is the window for trading him during the offseason as an expiring deal? In other words, what is the deadline for deciding whether to extend him for another year as per the terms of his weird deal?
Here’s what it says in Spotrac:
So it seems that it would be hard to trade him before the $3mill guarantee kicks in for 2024-25 and that if he is retained after that we would almost certainly have to waive him within 5 days of the deadline before the 2024-25 $6M guarantee for 2024-25 kicked in. Since his 2024-25 salary becomes fully guaranteed on June 30, 2024, it seems that there would be no way to trade him as an expiring and who would want his full salary on the books? Or is this a misinterpretation?
The more I think about it, the more I would stay away from him. Let a desperate team like CHI or a troubled team like CHA go for him. There will be better ways to offload Fournier.
Z-Man, the point is to acquire him so that Houston gives you draft picks, and then release him. No one will be rostering this guy, nor keeping him to make a trade with later.
seems like dipping your hand in a pile of shit to pull out a dollar…
I don’t think the lack of flexibility is worth acquiring a draft pick. Dead cap sucks unless you are tanking, which we are not. You would then have to include more actual good players to trade for a star. I would not make that deal under any circumstances unless I got something ridiculous back, like at least two unprotected picks that had a good chance of conveying in the lottery. No fucking way.
If I were going to do it at all, it should be to roster him but never have him anywhere near the team…which is the situation he’s in right now….he’s going to be suspended indefinitely anyway, so rostering him means nothing. This way he can be salary filler as an expiring and then waived by his next team. You’d essentially have Fournier’s salary filler opportunity plus an additional unprotected first round draft pick. A team might rather have that unprotected draft pick plus KPJ’s expiring than just Fournier. In other words, you would be including one less of our current primo picks or one less of our primo players than if Fournier is going out.
“seems like dipping your hand in a pile of shit to pull out a dollar…”
lmao!
Fournier is at least arguably the kind of potentially useful player the Rockets are presumably looking for with KPJ’s salary slot, and it’s actually not terribly easy to think of others who are in that salary range, are potentially useful, and are available for trade.
I’d probably hold out for a first with a genuine chance of conveying as such, unless the Rockets are willing to give us a crazy quantity of seconds.
Assuming the end game is a mega-trade, I think an expiring Fournier may be worth more to another team than whatever draft assets we get in a Fournier/KPJ swap. Trying to be too cute can backfire.
Also re: last night’s discussion, I will take the other side of any bet that Grimes will get the Fournier treatment. That is not going to happen for so, so many reasons. Thibs and the front office are 100% in sync on Grimes. If he’s healthy, he’s playing, and probably playing a lot.
I will take the other side of any bet that Grimes will get the Fournier treatment.
The Fournier treatment had 2 distinct components (1) move directly from starting to out of the rotation because your play deserved it; and (2) effectively never getting minutes, even in garbage time, so rehabilitating your game and standing is impossible. Grimes secondary attributes would keep no.2 from happening even if no.1 would. But that is if Thibs remains coach which I see as far from guaranteed after this season.
Of the top of my head I can think of 10 things that have a higher probability of occurring in 2023-24 than Grimes getting the Fournier treatment:
-RJ making All-NBA First Team
-Mitch hitting 20 3-pointers
-Jalen Brunson winning the Slam Dunk competition
-Randle having a better than 4.0 AST/TOV ratio
-Nikola Jokic demanding a trade to the Knicks
-The Pistons winning the NBA championship
-James Dolan winning Time Person of the Year
-Asa Hutchinson being the next POTUS
-Gas prices averaging under $2.00 per gallon
-Jowles marrying Lauren Boebert
I’d prefer to stay away from KPJ, the case against him is too horrendous for me to be cool with him having the Knicks on his resume, even if he doesn’t spend a single minute on the team.
ah, so much more eloquently put my friend…
i hope all is well in cyber world today…
We have a new NBA official basketball 🏀, so my kid is probably going to challenge me to a shootaround. What more can i ask for? ☺️
She did leave her husband this summer. And Jowles has been an acting a little desperate lately, drunk-dialing knickerblogger from barstools all around Manhattan last week. I’d put Grimes moving to the bench above this one, I think.
hey all i said it was non-zero that grimes loses significant time… and now it sounds like people would take a 20-1 bet that grimes plays less than 1400 minutes…. and i guess people would also take a 200 to 1 bet that he plays less than 700…. cause that’s never going to happen right?
for anyone who wants to take the other side of either bet… then let’s do this…
I think that describes it perfectly, but I’d call it $5.
djphan you said there’s a non-zero chance Grimes will get “fournier’ed.” Fournier played 459 minutes last year.
Betting on specific minutes totals is a fool’s errand because of injuries, but if Grimes is reasonably healthy he’s not playing 459 minutes this year. He’s almost definitely playing more than 1,459 minutes this year. He has a good shot at playing more than 2,459 minutes this year.
I never liked the official NBA basketball, always felt heavy and slick to me. Folks would occasionally bring a brand new one to the gym and it always wound up on the sidelines.
daughter is 21 already, but by the time the boys reach 17 or so – i’m gonna need to dress myself in bubble-wrap before heading on to the court…
i’m willing to put injury parameters around it then and call it 250 to 1 and 25 to 1…
i don’t expect anyone to actually take this bet… or actually pay out when they lose… but like if you’re saying there’s no shot… 250 to 1 should be a good bet… and if there’s almost definitely no shot then a 25 to 1 is exceedingly good…
i mean people were saying that trump had no shot in 2016.. and he was merely 2 to 1…. and i’m trying to figure out if folks really mean it in that way… if they are then yea that’s a much higher likelihood of it happening than you actually think it is…. and you’re gonna look silly pretty often…
offer is still out there…
What a stupid comment on this blog diphan.
We post our views in part to get the conversation going. Not to be confronted by some idiot asking to wager with him on a specific ( by him) aspect of a post.
Have you ever posted something that agrees or augments another poster? Haven’t seen it.
ha strat, you just made me remember there was a thing called a “nickel bag” once upon a time…
heading to the grocery store later…$5 don’t get too much done there these days…
sometime in high school there was a trip to go see the mets play…i remember walking up to the stadium entrance and there were people outside yelling: nickelbags, loose joints, loose joints
like they was selling programs or popcorn, blew my mind at the time…
@geo…howz that 2 grams treating you today…seeing the girl with kaleidoscope eyez yet?
I literally do not have the money to make a god damn 250-to-1 bet remotely worthwhile. I’m not going to risk thousands of dollars to make a couple of bucks, no matter how confident I am in an outcome.
So I’ll just do what we always do here–tell you you’re wrong, with the risk being that if I turn out to be wrong you can make fun of me for it later.
You’re wrong. If Grimes is healthy he’s gonna play a lot.
i mean you along with others were saying you would take the other side of that bet… i am simply taking you up on it….
this is what you said…
the whole reason i’m asking for bets is to find out whether or not you’re actually serious about ‘take the other side of any bet’….. no chance should mean 250 to 1 looks very attractive…. if you don’t want to take it then you don’t mean it…
and if you don’t mean it you get to clarify! how amazing isn’t it? you get to have a better understanding of another person? on the internet? woah! that seems like a less antagonistic thing to do than call other people’s comments stupid isn’t it?
but the sensitivity to all this is all rather predictable and trite…
“I literally do not have the money to make a god damn 250-to-1 bet remotely worthwhile. I’m not going to risk thousands of dollars to make a couple of bucks, no matter how confident I am in an outcome.”
Does that really have to be explained?
The argument about whether Grimes will play more or less than last year is totally different than whether he will be getting multiple DNP-CDs or have his playing time (assuming full health) dip down to <1000 minutes (I assume that what “being Fournier-ed means.). There is no reason to believe, or even speculate about the latter. There is very little reason to believe that Thibs will start DDV over Grimes, but might that happen if Grimes gets off to a slow start and DDV comes out hot? Sure, but until that happens, there is no reason to discuss it will happen. It could go the other way as well, DDV could come out cold and see a minutes reduction. Or after a change, performance could change once again and Thibs might adjust again. But the most likely by far scenario is what it is.
Similarly, there is no reason to discuss whether Thibs will start iHart over Mitch if Mitch comes out cold and iHart hot, or have Sims replace iHart if he comes out cold. Those things “could” happen, but most likely will not, so why bother discussing them at this time?
Beyond that, sure, there is ample reason to anticipate that Thibs will juggle PT between his various guards and wings in a manner that will result in a lower total minutes count and/or mpg count for Grimes. I would definitely believe the under was the best bet on meeting last year’s 29.9mpg. But I seriously doubt that Grimes gets even a single DNP-CD based solely on either his play or DDV’s play. And from the general conversation on the board, sounds like that is the overwhelming consensus.
hey pepper, laying down relaxing – which is pretty much what i’ve been doing all day everyday for a while now…
i’ll tire of it at some point i’m sure…
yeppers, got my mortar and pestle delivered today and did in fact put it to use…
it’s been about 30 minutes, feeling it a bit this time…just need to get my body used to this stuff…
i don’t know man, it’s weird, i can sense the fear and emotional blockage – but haven’t been able to reach it yet doing other stuff…hopefully this will be a path forward…
how’s your day going 🌶
Typically, when one says “I would bet on [XYZ thing],” there is no unspoken “even if winning the bet would get me a few cups of coffee, while losing would leave me financially devastated” component to the statement.
To put a finer point on it, if I were offered a 99.99% chance at $100 with a 0.01% chance of $2,500 being taken from me, I would not, in fact could not, take the deal.
Well now the goal posts are on Mars. I initially responded to the idea that Grimes would be “fournier’ed” i.e. play in the 400-500 minute range. I am confident that will not be the case.
Now you’re asking me if he’ll play more than the 2,121 minutes he played last year, a question about which I don’t feel strongly in either direction. With the addition of DDV I could see him being very impactful and important in 1,800 or so minutes. I could also see him being healthier, better, and playing 2,200+ minutes.
It’s a very different question than whether he’ll be put in mothballs.
been on zoom calls all day for work…so that should speak for itself…going to pop a cold one now and watch thursday night football…
i am jealous of the retired dudes…i am hopefully a few years out…moving down to PHX later this year as an intermediate step….then i can look forward to being horizontal on shrooms during the day…
we got family over in sedona…
thanks for reminding me about the football game tonight…
it’s funny – after a while, even bliss gets tiresome…
time to move on 😊
title track to JK’s next album…
hey i’m just trying to understand…. look if i get all these responses to my comment of a non-zero chance of grimes getting fournier’ed that ‘i would take that bet any day’… and then i offer that bet… and then i get some variations of grumbling under the breath… then i’m pretty sure i’m not gonna get the clarification that i seek…
and so i have to ask the other way… when you say that “You’re wrong. If Grimes is healthy he’s gonna play a lot.”… i’m going to ask for clarification… because:
1) no i did not say that grimes is certain to get buried… and
2) if grimes is ‘playing a lot’… but less than what he played last season… then we come to this seeming contradiction of everyone in the rotation ‘playing a lot’…. because as we’ve all demonstrated on teh record… everyone not named brunson or randle is going to see ~25mpg… it’s almost a certainty…
that’s not ‘playing a lot’ in my book and so that’s where i ask for clarification… so if it seems like it’s moving the goalposts it’s because when i’m greeted with incredulousness of the claims i’m making… i’m getting contradicting signals…
Lol the same dudes who pilloried me for wanting to sign Miles Bridges are pondering a trade for Kevin Porter Jr. You can’t make this shit up.
look that’s your choice… you didn’t have to take it too literally… if the odds were good or bad… that’s up to you and that’s all i was seeking…. when you say my statement was so ridiculous that you’d take that bet… and then when challenged on it… don’t take that bet… how would you react if it was the other way?
it would be pretty reasonable to think that they were not confident in that position right? i mean for me… i would absolutely take jalen brunson not winning the slam dunk contest this year at 1:250… that’s literally free money just like i would absolutely take 1:250 that i wouldn’t be struck by lightning in my whole life…. that’s literally free money…
and it’s ok to be imprecise…. but i’m sitting here and trying to figure out if it’s ‘no way’ in the same probability as brunson winning the slam dunk contest kind of way.. i mean that’s pretty stupid… but if it’s also that it could be in the trump winning 2016 election kind of way… that’s also pretty stupid but that’s mostly a miscommunication which you can absolutely clarify and i’d understand….
and look you might think you don’t take those kinds of 250 to 1 type risks… but you probably do.. when you decide to goto law school… when you decide to take out any kind of insurance or not… when you decide to get on a plane…. some cases it’s money.. some cases it’s your life…. you might not take those risks for basketball opinions but you don’t actually have to to understand those low probability scenarios and clarify your position….
and this happens because people don’t understand probabilities all that well…
trying to watch the amazon football broadcast, which does some genuinely cool shit, but is also very glitchy and keeps pausing midplay. the splintering of sports broadcasting really sucks.
I would react the way everyone has reacted to this situation as long as this board has existed–by reserving the right to poke a little fun at the other person if they turned out to be wrong. I have no expectation that another poster is willing to stake their financial wellbeing on their side of a disagreement with me.
No, because it’s perfectly coherent to be 99.99% sure of something but not be willing to lose your rent money if that things turns out not to be true.
I could easily flip this on you. If you regard Quentin Grimes playing under 500 minutes despite being mostly healthy as a reasonable possibility, why are you only offering absurdly long, “Brunson wins the dunk contest” esque odds on it?
I think a healthy Grimes playing under 500 minutes is much, much closer to “Brunson wins the dunk contest” than one of two realistic 2016 presidential candidates winning the election.
Yeah, but the difference is the upside for me in these scenarios is actually quite high. The upside for me in risking $2,500 to win $100 on Quentin Grimes’ minutes total is…$100.
so why don’t you offer up your own odds? i’m offering 250 to 1 as a proxy for no way.. i actually think 1000+ to 1 as more like no way.. and so 250 to 1 ishould be pretty easy money to you right?
i could give you 100 to 1… or even less.. but why is it up to me to keep going lower and lower when you could just clarify what that means to you? is this the price is right or something?
you said ‘i’d take the other bet’.. i take you up on YOUR offer… and you don’t.. what am i to think? what were you calling whatshisface cause he wouldn’t go on record about something stupid… how can you actually feel so confident about something not happening and think 250 to 1 is too risky?
and again… if that’s wrong… the right response should be to say what would be a fair bet for you…. not.. i’m not willing to bet at all you’re being stupid…. even tho you offered a bet first! do you also go around telling people you punched in the face to watch where theiy’re going too?
hi BE, I hope you’re doing well today…I really like the way you phrased that: augmenting others
i can only take so much kum-bah-yah stuff…I kind of like strife, it can be a way to move forward…
still though, i really like the way you phrased that sentiment of: I’m not sure exactly what – community?
I get it though…
Edit: definitely the shrooms talking, but: being right, is so last minute
Many posters have done exactly what djphan is doing. Ptmilo once seriously asked me to deposit $1k in an escrow account when I casually said “I bet the Raptors can draft someone who outperforms Fred Van Vleet if we sign him to a mega deal.”
Mr. False Equivalence has struck again!
and mind you… this was all over a comment that merely stated a ‘nonzero chance that grimes gets fournier’ed’… and that has all of a sudden morphed into i think it will happen and i’m wrong if it doesn’t…
i did not say that! that’s not a controversial opinion! that’s probably somewhere in the neighborhood of 5-30% chance in my estimates… that’s not that great! but my words have literally been quoted and people still think this… these discussions are like tiptoe’ing through landmines for whatever godforsaken reason….
zero excuse for this….
I’m channeling geo right now…
that’s funny z-man…
i’ll tell you, BE got me thinking…for whatever reason what I’m mostly thinking of is Dan in Vermont…
at one point i remember looking up the town and noticing the most picture perfect bookstore you could imagine…
it had all these marvelous photos of the inside, and i would spend hours at my desk daydreaming about sitting in the bookstore and listening to dan play his music…maybe even getting up to shake my legs out and dance a bit…
also got me thinking about al…i’m low key addicted to listening to his stories, even the hospital stuff…
i vaguely remember one about his pops and an old car…it was amazing…
fuck z-man, when did we get so old?