2020-21 Game Thread: Knicks vs. Magic

Today is the 18th anniversary of the one and only Knicks game I took my daughter to, where the Knicks lost 111-68 and Latrell was 0-9.

For some reason, she never wanted to go back (-:

I don’t care about Mitch, gimme that oh so important invisible 6th man

“All I know is that runner/floater is nice weapon to have in the paint. Tony Parker made an NBA career off them and half of Steph’s game in the paint is based off them. And, as someone else mentioned before here, that shot pairs real well with the alley-oop game because it looks like a lob pass coming out of his hands.”

Quickley clearly has exceptional hand-eye coordination, and his FT shooting suggests that he can repeat his shooting form. Seems like he’s going to keep studying film of himself and of other PGs and will continue adding to his game. But the hand-eye thing is a gift, can’t be taught.

Z-man: Quickley clearly has exceptional hand-eye coordination, and his FT shooting suggests that he can repeat his shooting form. Seems like he’s going to keep studying film of himself and of other PGs and will continue adding to his game. But the hand-eye thing is a gift, can’t be taught.

And if you look at the careers of 1-guards who excel with the shot its a lot of the 50/40/90 types (Nash, Steph, Stockton) who have that insane hand-eye coordination.

Didn’t Frank work on a floater? He should add that to his game.

I don’t think IQ has the body control and ambidexterity those guys did, nor the elite handle, but the kid can shoot.

yes, we got mike and clyde on the mic!

Beautiful pul up J by RJ

God, the spacing on this starting squad is so trash.

Vuc looking like one of the 5-10 best players in the NBA so far this season

The Magic jerseys are fucking terrible

RJ was worried if they called a travel on him.

Agree with DRed, they look like a second rate video game with no NBA licensing agreement…

Bad Kevin. Only threes and dunks.

I6M playing really well so far! If invisibly.

That pull-up is the shot Knox needs to make.

We want Obi to be able to shoot threes, I don’t know if we want him to stop in transition to shoot threes.

really do not need obi to be shooting 3s… like at all….

To be clear, I don’t think Vuc’s nutty play is sustainable, but so far it’s hard for me to argue with 26/12/4 with 2 stocks on 60 TS% especially when some of the top guys have come out a little slow out of the gate

He’s kind of the ultimate test of the positional scarcity discussion we were having re: Randle. Do we think contenders would line up to trade for Vuc? It’s tough to say.

IQ hit Randle for an open 12-footer but he decides to drive. Then he hits Knox for a wide-open corner 3 that went in and out. He’s getting the ball to guys in good scoring position.

vuc is interesting… he’s better than randle … plays center defensively better but not by much…. better perimeter shooter… but older…

i’m not sure if orlando is looking to deal him though…. they’ve had an opportunity to deal him so many times yet he hasn’t been so much in rumors… he’s got a couple more years left on his deal for 25mm too so i’m sure that has something to do with it…

Quickley saving us from getting all Knoxed up.

Toppin slow on that switch

More bad d by toppin

The Magic jerseys are fucking terrible

It’s like they didn’t want to pay for Comic Sans so they got the next closest font. I’m embarrassed for them.

Rivers in a prolonged slump…

I still don’t get all IQ’s floaters, but it’s mesmerizing..

I would sit Mitch right now.

Man what a mess that was

I had to laugh at that last sequence. That looked like me under the basket!

Randle’s got the yips

Randle’s missing some easy shots in the paint.

Randle should bounce back in the third quarter when we run every play on offense through him.

GoNYGoNYGo – Tanking forever:
I think Randle needs a blow with all those minutes and back-to-back games.
Toppin should get the 35 minutes today.

If Toppin plays 35 minutes Aaron Gordon is gonna score 60.

Let’s say, hypothetically, that RJ tops out as the kind of player he’s been the last few games. Good for 18-20 points a game, good rebounding, okay passing and around average from deep but nothing special. What would we be comfortable paying him contract-wise and what do we think the Knicks would actually pay him?

Nice way to end the half for Randle

It’s like the Knicks are playing a worse version of themselves.

Mike Honcho:
Let’s say, hypothetically, that RJ tops out as the kind of player he’s been the last few games. Good for 18-20 points a game, good rebounding, okay passing and around average from deep but nothing special. What would we be comfortable paying him contract-wise and what do we think the Knicks would actually pay him?

RJ Barrett’s been excellent over the past few games. If this is who he is from here on out he’s a max player.

Mike Honcho:
Let’s say, hypothetically, that RJ tops out as the kind of player he’s been the last few games. Good for 18-20 points a game, good rebounding, okay passing and around average from deep but nothing special. What would we be comfortable paying him contract-wise and what do we think the Knicks would actually pay him?

My guess if that he’s playing like that as his rookie contract ends he’ll get somewhere near the max.

Looking at RJ’s advanced game log, he’s really either been unsustainably terrible or unsustainably hot. He has 3 games all season where his TS% fell between .450 and .600. I’m not sure we know who RJ Barrett is, as a scorer, just yet because the numbers are so hot and cold.

Good first half. Nice to see them come out strong after a game yesterday. Quickley is awesome. Who knows if he actually tops out as a legit starter but at the very least we got ourselves a possibly really good 6th man off the bench. RJ playing well again. The FT’s are really encouraging.

It just feels good to have a collection of young players to root for and place some (not totally misguided) hope on.

kind of a dumb call on RJ

randle pushing the boundaries of friendly fire rebound stealing today

altho i’ve been i guess pessimistic on rj he’s also become one my favorite recent knicks. he has an elite combination of try hard and poise, and not just for a 20 year old. borderline travel call followed by very borderline offensive foul and he doesn’t sulk for a second on defense.

So, are Knicks’ opponents posting low scores because the Knicks are lucky? Or are the Knicks playing tenacious D?
Serious question.
I know the shooting hasn’t been great, but a lot of teams seem to be shooting poorly v the Knicks

PAYTON!

But thank you, Payton!

That was a good dunk. Otherwise super ugly. My son stopped to watch for a bit and asked “when are they going to make a basket’?”

At this rate, RJ should shoot the technicals over Randle…

This is some disgusting basketball lmao

Our starting offense is so shit if Randle struggles. The spacing is already trash and Bullock is kind of useless.

Magic’s bacon and bone show

This game fell out of the ugly tree and hit every branch on the way down

Difference between RJ Barrett’s TS% and his “if you arbitrarily give him his 3PT% from last year” adjusted TS% continues to go up

Help us Obi, you’re our only hope. Lol

I think we now get why Rivers got the contract he did.

KnickFaninChicago:
I think a good comp for Barrett is Dwayne Wade, if Dwayne Wade had 6 Modelos before every game or 3.5 Lagunitas.

You mean if Wade didn’t take HGH to give himself insane athletic bounce and explosiveness.

Did Clyde just come within inches of reciting Earl Monroe’s address on air?

Nerlens has really quick hands

I like that Thibs benched IQ there. Payton is outplaying him today.

randle’s assist 2p fg% has plummetted during these last handful of games… and he has been iso’ing a lot more… payton’s aggressive shot attempts probably has somethign to do with that… so we’re seeing more last year randle than we did earlier in the season….

this may be the only bad defensive game to finish in the 70s in twenty years

djphan:
randle’s assist 2p fg% has plummetted during these last handful of games… and he has been iso’ing a lot more… payton’s aggressive shot attempts probably has somethign to do with that… so we’re seeing more last year randle than we did earlier in the season….

Another reason why Payton should come off the bench. I don’t like that pairing of him and Randle. Its a two man game.

Who Thibs chooses to close this game out with should be telling. He definitely wants the win.

Who Thibs chooses to close this game out with should be telling. He definitely wants the win.

And he’s sticking with the starting 5…

Randle looks positively gassed. I know it’s unsophisticated to suggest that may be attributable to him playing every minute of every game but…

Who’s Kareem Abdul-Legoire

“Ross you da boss”

Ross pulled that one out of his oss

Julius is a load.
I’m sorry. I like his gumption.

Well at least there’s drama

Randle needs a long nap after this.

I believe in RJ!!

So Ross will hit 3 flings and we’ll have OT?

Log it. This is a win

Grinding, ugly Win.

Ugly win, ugly game, but it was sort of a war of attrition. Very, very physical.

We’ve now beaten the following playoff teams from last year:

Bucks, Pacers (twice), Utah, Celtics, Magic.

Not bad!

Knicks now the 6th seed in the East!! Won’t be there much longer after the upcoming 4 game west coast trip but hey at least for next couple of days we can call them a playoff team lol.

When the bench plays bad, they don’t play as much. When they play well, they play more. Its almost as if Thibs is implementing the controversial, groundbreaking and unconventional strategy of playing players who play well more minutes than those who play poorly.

So much for Mitch being questionable for today’s game…

Our team can play D with anyone, and when the shots are falling we have a puncher’s chance. I mean honestly, who figured on 7-8 at the 15-game mark?

We need invisible 6th man MVP chants

Ugly, eyes-wounding game, against a depleted Magic team.

I’ll take the win because they had a good reaction after Orlando took the lead, these are the kind of games that we regularly lost in the last few years.

And they played 20 hours after the end of the Boston game, add the travel and they’re excused for being tired (and they had a shootaround in Boston after the game!).

Randle was due a bad game but he was instrumental in the clutch,
IQ with a blazing first half then he struggled (but he’s a rookie, even Haliburton was bad in the last two games),
nice double-double by Barrett despite not hitting threes,
a decent game from Bullock and some moments from Payton.
Not a great game by Mitch, he needs to learn shooting free throws or the Hack-A-Mitch will become reality. Rivers’ slump continue.

And now to the West!

P.S.
Cole Anthony was picked 10 spots before Quickley…

Such an ugly game. Not a great shooting night for RJ but another solid game- the rebounding really has been impressive. Gordon is a tough matchup for Randle. He’s one of the few guys who’s both quick enough to stay in front of him and strong enough not to get overpowered.

Whatever RJ takes to maintain his confidence, I want some. That game won’t do much to mend his TS% but he looked like Steve Nash compared to most of the guys out there today.

I am not sure that game was much of a tribute to MLK but at least Walt and Breen were on top of their game.

Burks is really going to help. Bullock is decent defender but useless on offense and Rivers is Rivers- taking 30 minutes from those two and replacing them with 30 minutes of at least close to league average play will make a difference. But I worry that he makes them just good enough that they’re not selling at the trade deadline. The Knicksiest outcome for this year is the 12-14th pick in the draft.

I don’t know, Big Blue.

I mean I don’t think they’ll sell Randle, if that is what you mean. But I think Burks could be a guy they sell (along with maybe Elf, DSJ, Frank). I could see a situation where they win a few more before Burks comes back and then he does, plays well and is an enticing piece for a late first rounder. Trading him wouldn’t mess up the team we currently have too much (as we’ve played a lot without him now). And maybe you could throw in Elf/DSJ/Frank as a little bonus to a team.

But yeah, I doubt they sell Randle and honestly, they really shouldn’t because you can always do that next year. Unless Toppin just starts going nuclear. But I’m cool with them bringing Toppin along slowly this season and then look to move Randle in the off season when teams are really retooling or next year at some point.

Yeah, I can see some of the mercs being traded for some sort of future 2nd.

But the core players aren’t going anywhere.

It’s very early but Anthony Edwards is a gunner, and for now not a good one.
I don’t think MInnesota is the best situation for him to develop good habits,
it’s hard to do if your role model is D’Angelo Russell…

Collins is getting maxed this summer.

There is a very good chance that the Knicks will be buyers sitting somewhere near the 7-10 seed in the east.

I think NBA tv referred to MLK as “the original influencer”.

“I’m going to get a glass of wine,” Julius Randle says. “I ain’t had one in a couple of months. I’m going to get some wine tonight and enjoy the rest of the day with my wife.”

You’ve earned it Jules

Max:
“I’m going to get a glass of wine,” Julius Randle says. “I ain’t had one in a couple of months. I’m going to get some wine tonight and enjoy the rest of the day with my wife.”

You’ve earned it Jules

I’ve got to say, in spite of the surly demeanor Randle seems like a really good guy. Whether it’s here or elsewhere I’d really like to see him succeed.

Elf annoys me, but mainly for his play, and because his new haircut makes me (and Breen) constantly confuse him and RJ when they share the court.

Apparently, I am now Knickerblogger’s official hair reporter?

I also constantly confuse Elfrid and RJ but it helps that they wear their arm sleeves on different arms (Elf wears his on the left arm and RJ on the right, if I remember correctly). One of them needs to grow a beard or something.

Problem is, Elf’s previous floppy pompadour dreads were easy to mistake for Bullock’s.

Clearly, someone needs to switch to cornrows, a vintage Afro, or just shave it all off.

Burks signed a 1yr-6m deal this offseason, Morris was being pursued last year by multiple teams offering over 10m per season and this offseason signed a 4yr-64m contract. There is no comparing Burks value league wide to Morris.

Heck last year at the trade deadline Burks was part of a trade from Golden St to Philly and the Warriors only got back 2nd rd picks while the Knicks got a 1st rd pick for Morris.

Just finished watching the game.
Another unexpected early one for me…
Ugly stuff but I’ll gladly take ugly Wins over pretty Losses. They build players/team’s character.
My biggest complaint?
Losing 10p+ advantages easily while losing focus.
It’s still early in the season but i’d love to see us not taking the foot off the gas and give the opponents the chance to come back.

It does help when a team is missing some of its best players. Not that Tatum would have swung a 30 point margin but Fultz and Isaac and Bamba and Fournier whoever might have helped.

But they were gritty today. No lack of fight this year and I appreciate it.

Imagine this one as a Loss at the very end.
Wouldn’t that be a shame?
The game was screaming Knicks Win from the start.
Why give ANY chance to Vucagic to steal it?

We’ve benefitted from some luck with opponents and injuries, but no doubt we come to play every game.

Raven: It may be observed, in a general way,
that life would be better, distinctly
If more of the people with nothing to say
were able to say it succinctly

Truer words were never spoke

Elf annoys me, but mainly for his play, and because his new haircut makes me (and Breen) constantly confuse him and RJ when they share the court.

For a moment I thought RJ’s number was sewn on upside down today.

For a moment I thought RJ’s number was sewn on upside down today.

I was so relieved the first time I heard Breen mix them up (in part because he and Clyde are watching remotely on a monitor, and not at the road arena), because it meant I wasn’t just imagining it. And now several of you have affirmed. RJ is listed as having 3 inches and 20 pounds on Elf, but their postures and now their hair are similar enough to throw me.

#Elf might have the flattest jumper in NBA history.#

His previous haircut which looked like a rooftop that was blocking his upper vision was the perfect alibi.

It’s annoying to think about how much better the Knicks would be if they drafted Mikal Bridges instead of Knox.

BigBlueAL:
It’s annoying to think about how much better the Knicks would be if they drafted Mikal Bridges instead of Knox.

Shai Gilgeous Alexander is the real crime. How did you watch that Kentucky team and say “yeah Knox is the guy we need?” That’s ridiculous.

Ja with three great plays in a row in the clutch and ten minutes later (to play 55 seconds) Memphis get the win.

The league must really do something with the timeouts at the end,
every close game takes ages to end…

Booker shares a strange thing with Donovan Mitchell, 80% of the time when I watch them play they shoot like Payton…

Who would Tillman be playing in front of?

Trae Young’s hair always makes me wanna eat cotton candy

think one of the points that go unnoticed to a degree with elf is just how big and physical a guard he is…

He’s much bigger than Quickley and I think he defends better. It’s one reason to keep starting him. Quickly shoots better, but I’m not sold he should be the starter yet.

Yeah I love SGA too but at draft time the talk was about Knox or Bridges, I don’t remember SGA being talked about as someone the Knicks were considering unless I’m remembering wrong?

from what i remember mikal bridges was mostly an after thought too… i remember after a certain point in time knox was connected to the knicks and that’s really all there was to it….

i don’t even think sga worked out which is just an lol…. there were a few folks on the sga train including me but i don’t think anyone thought he was going to get picked in a million years because why would you pick the guy who was carrying the same college team they were on when you could pick the guy who showed out in a 3on3?

Watching highlights of the game. RJ is strong, like bull. You don’t need many ballhandling moves or a lightning-quick first step when you physically displace whoever’s in your path. It’s like he has a personal force field.

Owen:
Not sure where we could fit Tillman and his .174 WS/48

You didn’t answer the question

Re: Tillman, looking at his game logs so far, it looks like he doesn’t shoot 3’s, never gets to the line, and hasn’t done much on the boards. Seems to be a pretty good passer, although it’s unlikely that his 6:1 ast:tov is for real. It will take more than 4 decent games for me to jump on the bandwagon.

Owen:
I don’t think we really need to have a place to play him. Just having him on the roster would be fine.

And I can’t imagine Thibs wouldn’t enjoy having a guy like him in his arsenal.

He’s maybe better than Toppin?

Is he? You’re ready to conclude that after 8 games? And do you think he gets PT with Toppin and Randle (and Project:Knox) in front of him?

As I said above, you don’t really know what you have in a player until he’s gone around the league a couple of times. If he settles in as generic roster filler, he’d never see the court here with the way our roster is constructed. If he keeps up the great numbers, sure, it’d be nice to have him.

TH Jr a sizzling 0-12 tonight.

You don’t need many ballhandling moves or a lightning-quick first step when you physically displace whoever’s in your path. It’s like he has a personal force field.

ha 🙂

i cannot believe what i just read….

look mom, he’s doing it again!!!

Greek Freak is the 2 time MVP yet down the stretch the ball is nowhere near his hands on offense. It’s all Holiday or Middleton, which I’m not saying is the wrong strategy but it says alot.

d-mar:
TH Jr a sizzling 0-12 tonight.

0 points in 12 shots is something.

Draymond is SO bad on offense now.

Z-Man – My point would be that if we had him on the roster we could find out if he is better than Toppin pretty easily. I mean, I refuse to believe there is no space for a guy who has debuted like this. Especially a guy who has Thibs written all over him. And my recollection is that lots of people thought he was a big sleeper.

He’s definitely the kind of guy I like. I have a soft spot for that kind of PF with defensive chops and passing ability. I loved Mase growing up. So I am a little partial.

But what’s not to like? Not sure what the other side of the argument is here. We should have less promising players?

Is he too undersized to make up for his lack of an outside shot?

It’s a take. 90% of the fun is seeing how they play out.

Jared Porter appears to be in a wee bit of trouble. Stevie won’t mind too much though. I suspect….

Yeah I love SGA too but at draft time the talk was about Knox or Bridges

rama, king of superfluous poppycock
June 21, 2018 at 12:06 pm
I have a feeling SGA will emerge as the steal of this draft, a la Mitchell last year. Don’t see him going top 10, maybe not top 15, but I think in a year or two he’ll look like the 5th best prospect.

I also have the feeling Knox will look like he shouldn’t have gone in the first round. Not Mudiay bad, but bad. So if we take him…what a letdown that would be.

Heya!

Reading more of that thread, there wasn’t anyone who thought Knox was a good idea. TNFH used the word “dread.” Yep.

Then there was this:

rama, king of superfluous poppycock
June 21, 2018 at 12:12 pm
Porter is interesting – could be a total bust, but I like Massive’s suggestion that we take him if he falls and give him the year to get his body right. More losing for us (better draft pick next year), good foundation for him staying healthy going forward, he and KP come back together and work with each other as part of a young core building toward 2020.

Building toward 2020…instead we’re building in 2020. Oh wait, 2021. Well, one of these years we won’t suck….

geo:
just for the record: it’s not me that starts these odd tangents…

okay, here’s a weird hair thing that I can’t help but continually fixate on – what’s going on with trae young’s hair?

I can’t tell if he’s simply given up, or is that like a style or something…

i think he did the hair club for men thing in the offseason..

It was a strange draft and hard to scout, so I didn’t look as hard as I usually do. I was mildly disappointed with Obi, but only because Hali was still there. I wasn’t as high on Vassell and Nesmith as some others here. Maybe they turn out better than Obi, maybe not.

I worried about trading up for Lamelo, because I thought he was fool’s gold. If he can be a two-way player, maybe I was wrong on that…time will tell.

Z-man:
Is Chris Boucher, like, the best player in the NBA right now?

Didn’t realize how old he is- He’s 28.

Brian Cronin:
Goddamn, CJ McCollum broke his foot. That blows.

I feel for him, bad luck for him and the Blazers, he was playing very very well.

So many injuries around the league…

Bwahahahahaha!!! THJr

Here’s a fun, small sample size theater based comparison.

Jared Porter out. As he should be. More significant Mets tenure: Beltran as manager or Porter as GM?

About 21% into the season and the Knicks have the #5 defense in the league (per cleaning the glass). I know the shot profile of the opponents has not been “ideal”, but the longer this goes on, the longer you have to at least consider the possibility that it’s not all just good luck but in fact something the team is doing that is causing it. By the far the most obvious contributor to the defensive rating is holding opponents to a low eFG (2nd in the league at 50.1% to Utah.

So we give up the 5th most shots at the rim… but are 7th best in term of FG% there. Not super surprising considering we have Mitch and Noel guarding the cup. We are basically worst in the league at forcing teams to take mid-rangers, reasonably good at preventing corner 3s (top 10), but give up a lot of ATB 3’s. You have to figure some of that is by design, including letting certain guys shoot (Terrence Ross is not one of them). Gotta wonder whether maybe we are funneling guys away from the corner 3’s and are willing to give up other shots, including shots in the restricted area — “welcome to the restricted area, here is Mr. Robinson to greet you”, and since opposing teams are conditioned to go for restricted area shots, let them shoot these high difficulty shots around/over two of the best shot blockers in the league? And giving up ATB 3’s to the likes of Gary Clark, Aaron Gordon, James Ennis, and Dwayne Bacon is probably just fine with Thibs?

The game before against the Celts – lots of noise about the Celtics shooting 7-46, but 41 of the 46 3’s were ATB 3’s, and 25 of the 46 3PAs were from the likes of Grant Williams, Marcus Smart, Semi Ojeleye, and first-game-back Kemba.

Another under the radar thing – we’ve gotten a lot better about fouling – 10th in the league in opponent FTR which must be a major improvement recently since it seemed like we were fouling everyone over the first couple weeks of the season…

The Irony is that by the eye test Maxey seems a lot more like a Mitchell-type player…

Yeah, stylistically Quickley and Mitchell are very different. To be clear I’m not actually making the comparison. It’s just kind of funny how similar the lines are as of now. My guess is Quickley hits a rookie wall/stops hitting 44% of his shots from 10-16 feet and that changes, but hey, he also might see a 3PT% uptick so who knows? Eating my crow on the pick this early in his career seems like a great way to jinx him so I’ll just say it would be lovely if a pessimistic Knicks prediction was wrong for once.

Meanwhile RJ’s “if you arbitrarily give him last year’s 3PT%” adjusted TS% stands at .515. The free throw improvement looks pretty legit–the sample size is increasing and the shots themselves look better. Pretty weird year from him all things considered, but I think I’m more encouraged than discouraged?

I’m still not stressing about wins because I think we’ll have plenty of ping-pong balls when it’s all said and done (we might have two sets…) and the list of players I’d be happy to come away from this draft with is fairly long, but I also don’t blame anyone who is thinking about such things. At the end of the day we need an unambiguously great player(s) and the non-draft path to getting one is murky.

Taking Knox over Mikal Bridges was a gamble that most of us thought was a bad idea. With Bridges we were getting an older and potentially more limited 3&D guy, but we were getting a very high quality role player at least. You could also hope he could expand his offensive skillset a bit with time. With Knox we were getting a physically very immature player and project that might have a more versatile overall offensive game “eventually” at a time the Knicks were looking for a potential all star, but there was a much higher bust risk. To me, it was a no brainer because I saw KP + Bridges, + Frank as 3/5ths of the way to one of the best defenses in the NBA and with 2 shooters. They gambled, made more mistakes, and lost. But Knox looks far from hopeless right now and we have competent people in charge going forward.

My guess is Quickley hits a rookie wall/stops hitting 44% of his shots from 10-16 feet and that changes, but hey, he also might see a 3PT% uptick so who knows? Eating my crow on the pick this early in his career seems like a great way to jinx him so I’ll just say it would be lovely if a pessimistic Knicks prediction was wrong for once.

i was going to do a checkup on quickley but i’m waiting on another 100 minutes… the shot mix is very weird… 3% at the rim… 27% 3-10 ft and 20% 10-16… i can’t really find anyone who’s this allergic to get to the rim and that probably has some implications for his game… pretty sure the shooting is coming down but the passing is encouraging… i would probably not get too crazy tho….

I’m very optimistic that IQ is an outlier with regard to the necessity to get to the rim. He is a 90+% FT shooter over a long time and has a knack for drawing fouls away from the rim. He clearly has mastered that floater and has great confidence in it…it’s kind of like a running FT for him…so why go to the rim when you can draw bigs out and open up alley-oop possibilities?

That’s not to say that he shouldn’t ever go to the rim or work on finishing…I’m sure he will. But he clearly can be a very effective offensive player without it. It might even keep him healthier.

The other thing about IQ is that he is very adept on the PnR. He seems to get the advantage-disadvantage decision-making as the ball-handler and makes good pass-shoot decisions. And when he didn’t do that in the 2nd half, Thibs yanked him, so he’s also being held accountable.

Alan: He surely will hit a rookie wall at some point

Maybe, maybe not. He seems to play a very efficient game physically, doesn’t get knocked down a lot. He’s also pretty strong for a wiry-looking guy. He clearly used the 9 months off to get into top condition. It’s possible that he actually gets better as the season goes on.

Tommy Beer
@TommyBeer
As of this morning, the Knicks rank:
* 1st in fewest points allowed per game (102.7)
* 1st in opponents FG%
* 1st in opponents 3-point FG%
* 5th in Defensive Efficiency

If the Knicks are in the top 10 at 40 games I will start to think about it. The numbers by far have to be super noisy.

IQ’s floater is destined to be a very polarizing shot.

Stratomatic “Porzingis, Ntilikina, and one of the Bridges are going to lead us to the promised land”
June 21, 2018 at 1:11 pm

Rama
And I think Mikal will be a solid if unspectacular player no one would regret taking. Courtney Lee level – which would be great at the 9 spot, and on a rookie salary.

Stratomatic
If Mikal is going to be a Lee caliber player, then I’d rather pass and take a shot with Knox. No disrespect to Lee who everyone knows I like, bit I think Dotson has a really good chance to be as good or better than Lee. So what would I need Mikal for. I’m expecting Mikal to be a better defender and better all around scorer than Lee. Otherwise, I want to go elsewhere.

Thibs is clearly slowing the game down (which kinda sucks aesthetically) as evidenced in very few transition baskets for us, and for opponents. I would guess that we go deeper into the shot clock on both ends.

You are correct:

According to Second Spectrum tracking, the Knicks rank last in the percentage of their shots that have come in the first six seconds of the shot clock (8.7%), when they have an effective field goal percentage of 64.5%. And they lead the league in the percentage of their shots that have come in the last six seconds of the shot clock (20.1%), when they have an effective field goal percentage of just 49.8%. That 49.8% ranks third (and Randle leads the league with 23 buckets) in the last six seconds, but no team should want to be playing late in the clock so often.

It doesn’t matter a lot who starts. It matters who gets the most minutes, and who plays in crunch time (assuming there is a crunch time). It seems obvious to me that Thibs recognizes IQ’s contributions, and if he plays politics by starting Elf, that seems fine by me, especially since there’s plenty of time for teams to adjust and start shutting down what Quick can do. Once that happens, if he’s your starter and can’t adjust, what do you do next, start Elf again? Thibs has chosen a more prudent path, while still giving Q plenty of time.

Idle perspective — what really has surprised me is that we went from a chaotic shitshow to what appears to be a really good defense with basically the same players (and our secret Frank sauce out, although Noel in) with almost no practice time or pre-season. I’ve always been of the opinion that defense takes a lot of work and re-training, footwork and learning schemes etc., and that it’s not something that happens overnight.

Apparently I was wrong.

And it brings up my second idle perspective. There has been a lot of chatter over the years here that coaching isn’t really important. I’m curious if those who espoused such opinions still hold them, or if this weird start to the season is changing minds.

rama is cautiously optimistic:
It doesn’t matter a lot who starts. It matters who gets the most minutes, and who plays in crunch time (assuming there is a crunch time). It seems obvious to me that Thibs recognizes IQ’s contributions, and if he plays politics by starting Elf, that seems fine by me, especially since there’s plenty of time for teams to adjust and start shutting down what Quick can do.

The whole point is that our spacing is better because teams do and will adjust to shutting down to what he can do, particularly as a 3 point shooter. If he’s a better shooter than Payton defenses will naturally have to stop crowding the paint as much and give some open lanes for our slashers to work with. I will say though that the question of IQ’s ball-handling is up in the air. Will he continue to give up his dribble early if teams fullcourt pressure him?

Mike Vorkunov
@MikeVorkunov
Knicks gave up 42 wide-open 3s over those 2 games, via http://NBA.com; Boston + Orlando hit just 7 of them (16.7%). There’s some flukiness there but that’s not to completely take away from a defense that ranks 5th in def. rating & 1st in pts/game

42 wide open threes for our opponents. They made 7.

But Jowles Mitch is only able to play these minutes because he’s staying on the floor and not fouling much. Does the coaching staff get no credit for that? I mean, just last season Mitch was still having that issue. In 9 months without playing basketball Mitch learned on his own how not to foul? Me thinks not.

Owen:
Mike Vorkunov
@MikeVorkunov
Knicks gave up 42 wide-open 3s over those 2 games, via http://NBA.com; Boston + Orlando hit just 7 of them (16.7%). There’s some flukiness there but that’s not to completely take away from a defense that ranks 5th in def. rating & 1st in pts/game

42 wide open threes for our opponents. They made 7.

But as was pointed out, if you have the right guys shooting those 3’s from the right places, they tend to miss lots of them. Obviously 7-42 is unsustainable, but we beat the Celts by 30 and we missed lots of open looks from 3 as well.

They shot between 39%-45% on floaters throughout their careers or in general FG%?

from 3-10 ft….

#I don’t think coaches matter much. Never have.#

In European basketball which is D-oriented as fuck coaches are GODS.
A well coached scrubteam has a chance against any star-studded team here and that’s the Only reason i predicted a 36-36 season under Thibs.
#RememberSaitama2006#

Also, here are Mitch’s splits from last year:

Minutes per PF (higher is better)

Oct 5.3
Nov 5.9
Dec 6.8
Jan 8.3
Feb 7.6
Mar 11.4

This year: 11.0

So, like, yeah, um, he did apparently get better with fouling… from playing basketball.

Or could it be that players are largely responsible for their own improvement, since they’re the ones who actually have to play the game?

why bother with coaches at all then?

or like in school why bother with teachers, since it’s the kids that have to do the math problems and essays? Those silly teachers don’t take any tests at all, it’s ridiculous that we have to pay them to *airquotes* teach *close-airquotes* my kids. My property taxes would be so much less with this approach!

why bother with coaches at all then?

This is a bit facile for you, Frank. It’s not that coaches are totally irrelevant — it’s that most NBA-level coaches are largely indistinguishable from each other. There are geniuses like Jax and Popovich (both of whom have been left behind by the modern NBA) and excellent tacticians like Stevens, Snyder and Spoelstra. And then there are just totally average coaches like Donovan and Brooks and Mike Brown. Then you can get into the Jason Kidds and Mark Jacksons, who actively sabotage your team. They rarely last.

or like in school why bother with teachers, since it’s the kids that have to do the math problems and essays? Those silly teachers don’t take any tests at all, it’s ridiculous that we have to pay them to *airquotes* teach *close-airquotes* my kids. My property taxes would be so much less with this approach!

Right, because 400 of the best basketball players in the world, having developed their skills over a decade-plus of drilling, practicing and playing in high-stakes games, are similar to little illiterate 2nd-grader Johnny. There’s a selection bias in the NBA that we can work with. Public education has no such thing.

Saying that coaches don’t matter and then putting them in tiers seems contradictory to me.
There are not many Pops and Jaxs as they’re not many Jordans and LeBrons out there.
Top coaches don’t come in bunches.

Food for thought:

Obradovic has won 63 club titles and honours in his entire coaching career, including nine EuroLeague titles with FIVE different clubs, and has also made 18 EuroLeague Final Four appearances, during his coaching career. In addition to his success at the club level, he has also won major trophies as the head coach of the senior FR Yugoslavian national team, most notably winning the gold medals at the 1997 EuroBasket and the 1998 FIBA World Championship.

42 wide open threes for our opponents. They made 7.

I’m kind of amazed that anyone on a stats-based blog can just willfully ignore more detailed information already shared by another poster about the kinds of shots being given up – corner 3s vs. 3s above the break, 3s taken by certain players, etc. I’m less amazed that someone might argue that a similar group of players doing vastly better are somehow figuring it all out on their own and coaching plays no role. At least there we’ve seen data making the case that most coaches don’t make a difference. But both detailed statistics and the eye-test reveal a totally different team defensively, which is what many of us predicted with a Thibs-coached team. Better rotations, less mindless switching, different kinds of shots given up, and so on. Also, just more hustle – which by the way can be a measurable stat, as in distance traveled during the game. The Knicks rank in the top 10 in that category.

So, um, yeah, coaching has made a really big difference, and it’s easy to validate both with advanced statistics and the eye-test.

Where do people think this team would be with Fizdale? 7-8? Or 2-13?

I did education reform for a bit and the numbers I remember looking at showed unequivocally that there was zero correlation between what you paid teachers and what academic results you got, in the aggregate, in the public school system.

interesting owen…out of curiosity, what were some of the most significant factors towards academic success?

what really makes one school better than the next?

is success isolated more towards an individual school/zip code or can success be extended towards school districts and counties and states…

I’d love to see the study that showed zero correlation with what teachers are paid vs. academic results. How did it measure “academic results?” Over how many years? Which levels of instruction? Elementary school? Middle? High? All? Which school systems and where? What are the demographics of the kids there? What were the salaries involved…how much higher were they and for how long was the study? I mean, are we talking token raises or a huge jump like doubling salaries? Etc. Etc.

I remember someone in educational leadership once telling me confidently that there was a study that showed that there is no correlation between class size and “student learning.” I asked to see the study so that I could at least see how this conclusion was arrived at, since I have grave doubts about its conclusion, but the person just ignored my query.

The few studies I did see over the years always struck as very small sampling, over too brief a time span, and with very questionable terms, particularly how they defined student learning/academic results/whatever. That almost always meant multiple-choice standardized test scores of some sort.

Anyways, off the soapbox…
🙂

Owen:
Mike Vorkunov
@MikeVorkunov
Knicks gave up 42 wide-open 3s over those 2 games, via http://NBA.com; Boston Orlando hit just 7 of them (16.7%). There’s some flukiness there but that’s not to completely take away from a defense that ranks 5th in def. rating & 1st in pts/game

42 wide open threes for our opponents. They made 7.

OK, I’ll be the one to say it. Yes, it’s obviously an unsustainable fluke and it would be front office malpractice to miss this year’s fantastic lottery on the backs of mercs. Yes, it’s fine if the young guys “contribute” — a really flexible word — but they aren’t contributing enough now for it to be ok to miss the lottery.

You cannot miss this year’s lottery unless the team makes the playoffs with both Toppin and Quickley (and of course Barrett, but he seems on the way) making huge contributions. Essentially the only way you can miss the lottery is if you try as hard as you can not to, and the young guys are just too good. And, no — Randle doesn’t count as a “young guy.”

It’s great that they’re more competently coached but to sneak into the playoffs on some slow-paced, merc-based, Covid-fluky, neo-grit-and-grind? No. Just no.

***Am I really expected to believe that the coaching staff fixed Mitch’s foul problem with 3 weeks of training camp, 4 preseason games, 15 regular season games and whatever practice they’ve been able to conduct during the season? Or could it be that players are largely responsible for their own improvement, since they’re the ones who actually have to play the game?***

But Robinson’ block rate is half of what it was his rookie year, so has he really even improved at all? I don’t think it takes weeks and weeks for a coach (or an agent) to say “be less aggressive”, or “don’t leave your feet”, or “don’t try to block everything in sight and your foul rate will decrease and your playing time will increase.” But it seems to be coming at a cost, as his production is down as well.

But both detailed statistics and the eye-test reveal a totally different team

Including players who were traded, released, left to expire, or have been injured, the Knicks lost about 40% of their total minutes players from 2019-20. So yes, it is essentially a totally different team, largely populated by young players expected to make incremental improvements year over year.

This is reminding me of the “Carmelo was an amazing rookie and single-handedly improved the 2003-04 Nuggets” argument, where the Nuggets had roster turnover of like 60% year over year.

He improved under Miller because they stopped switching absolutely everything (thanks Fiz!) on the perimeter which led to mismatches on every damn play.

Well, I was told it was Thibs that did it. But that wasn’t true, was it?

Geo – That’s a long conversation and I must confess to being 15 years out of date on the research. Maybe the state of play is different now. It was certainly a very controversial topic of conversation at the time. Still is obviously. You had the right wing pointing at the teacher’s unions and claiming that the free market could fix everything. You had the left wing pointing at a variety of targets but principally all the stuff outside the school that destabilized life for kids in the bottom 75% of the income distribution.

The things that were broadly predictive of student and school success were things relating to the student’s home environment. Principally parental income, parental educational attainment, marital status, and some other bits and bobs.

That’s still true in a lot of ways. For instance, someone posted a chart I saw somewhere recently showing how SAT and ACT scores map extraordinarily tightly with income.

The international comparative numbers were pretty interesting too. Almost every country got more bang for their educational buck. You see something very similar with healthcare too. Some of that was chalked up to certain countries just having such a focus on k-12 academic achievement as a ladder to success, especially in Asian countries. The US, by contrast, was described as a place you could get a good job with a high school degree with a lot more ease from 1945 to 1970, which sort of became the culture in some people’s telling.

It’s as big a topic as you could possibly imagine. I will say this. People have been trying really really hard to fix things for a long time. I’d definitely agree with those who say that the schools are fine and that it’s things we should be doing outside of school that would move the needle the most. For instance, universal pre-k. Or criminal justice reform.

But it’s very complex.

The Honorable Cock Jowles: Well, I was told it was Thibs that did it. But that wasn’t true, was it?

Yeah but that’s a lot different than coaches don’t matter! If you put a pedometer on him I guarantee you’d see he’s just moving around a lot less-a lot of that’s scheme. And given the fact that Mitch spent all summer practicing his outside shot and still hasn’t taken any tells me he’s a guy who definitely listens to his coach. I’d guess that’s true on defense as well.

The few studies I did see over the years always struck as very small sampling, over too brief a time span, and with very questionable terms, particularly how they defined student learning/academic results/whatever. That almost always meant multiple-choice standardized test scores of some sort.

state standardized test scores (i believe their state and not federal?) sounds about right as the major metric for success…so basically – teachers teach the test…improved learning, i don’t know…

the class size thing is crazy – for the last decade plus whenever i’ve sat in on one of the kid’s classes – there’s at least 25 plus students in the room…usually it’s the first thing i do when i sit down in the class: count students…

Growing up – i don’t think i ever had more than 15 students in a class up until about high school…pretty sure at that though the number never went over 20…

it has been a real struggle with the fourth grader to track all his work assignments and get him to catch up on weekends and holidays…just soooooo much work due each day…

the last month or so the school has added another resource (IXL) in to an already crowded list of “resources” which the students need to utilize (IReady, Xtra Math, Wonders Connect, Spelling City, Typing.com, Think Central, Daily Check-in worksheet, Google classroom, workbooks), it’s crazy…

however, it’s forced the kids to become more responsible for their own work, as well it has forced parents to become more involved in their children’s education – as opposed to simply abdicating all responsibilty to teachers and the school…

Jowles, don’t act like you don’t have presumptions. You totally do.

The Honorable Cock Jowles:
Any thoughts on Silver advocating for NBA players getting vaccinated “as a PSA?”

My first thought was fuck no given how poorly the roll-out has been handled. But. Given the level of medical distrust in the black community I guess I’m for it. Kareem ain’t moving the needle. I’m not sure LBJ will either but you’re talking about 600-700 doses which isn’t anything in the grand scheme of things. Worth a try, especially given the Covid outcomes for minorities.

Would be pretty interesting to see the impact of Lebron, Mahomes, and, I don’t know, Mookie Betts getting a vaccine on national TV. Or the GOAT himself, Michael Jordan.

I’m sad, btw, that Farfa’s clients were not no-shows, and thus he’s been too busy to do a double recap of these last two contests. I’d have enjoyed his description of the offensive dumpster fire that was the Magic game.

Here is Anchorage Man via Vorkunov on the “rockfight” between the Knicks and the Magic

https://twitter.com/MikeVorkunov/status/1351645416027283456?s=20

Which is Seth Partnow from the Athletic. The comment thread on the original post is a little funny.

We’re obviously in very small sample size theater but if Toppin can keep his steal/block/rebound numbers close to where they are (1.2 steals 1.8 blocks, 7.8rbs per 36) it’ll really help mitigate the bad defense. He’s got a positive BPM (as does Quickley) despite the bad shooting.

Once the defense knows that you are very effective on the P&R and OREB put backs but that’s all you can do, they are going to try to slow that down or take it away . That’s why even though everyone was celebrating Mitch’s TS of 70%, etc.. (which of course was amazing), it was on such a limited skillset, if we ever make the playoffs, the best defensive teams are going to slow him down and may even make him almost irrelevant on some nights. That’s why I keep saying he has to expand to mid range at least. It may lower his TS% a bit, but as long as he’s efficient enough to have be covered, it will make it easier for his teammates to operate inside and make it harder for defenses to stop the P&R because they can’t focus exclusively on taking that away. They won’t know if he’s going roll, pop, stand out in mid rage and just shoot etc.. In theory all you want to do is dunk, take layups and shoot corner 3s, but in the real world the defense is trying to take those things away. Sometimes you have to take other shots. The more things each player can do, the harder it is for the defense to stop you and you wind up with a higher efficiency overall even if you dunker drops a little.

In the Berman article today Jeff van Gundy opened about some of the issues with “professionalism” Mitch had (missing flights?). Now we know what Thibs was talking about at the start of the season and why he gave him a kick on the pants and put Nerlens in front of him to start.

This isn’t meant to be a jab at anyone but: You know a team is in dire offensive straits when its fans start talking about how much the spacing will improve when Frank Ntilikina comes back

geo: to be honest, i pretty much assumed academic success was mostly tied to demographics, in particular education and income within a home…

@Owen and @Geo
I find the research by Raj Chetty, Saez and colleagues pretty convincingly support that teachers have big impact on outcomes that matter – adult income, health, etc. and that wealth is the main driver. I.e that paying teachers more will get you better teachers and outcomes. E.g: http://www.rajchetty.com/chettyfiles/value_added.pdf
https://www.opportunityatlas.org/

I’m glad this came up in the context of measuring coaches’ impact because the same “value added” analytic approach is what I always think is needed to assess that when the topic comes up. It takes into account how people (students or players) were likely to do given their trajectory before the teacher or coach “intervenes”.

geo: i’m not sure how that can be addressed within the primary school system – hopefully Joe changes some things up to make secondary education more impactful and more accessible/affordable to all…

I think their experimental work suggests their are policies that can make a big difference. A fun review of Chetty’s research and efforts to reform economics education is here: https://www.vox.com/the-highlight/2019/5/14/18520783/harvard-economics-chetty

Re: the vaccine, I’m fine with NBA players skipping the line and getting them, so long as the league contributes lots of $ to COVID-related causes. Public service announcements are a good start.

In that context, I think that the NBA (and sports more generally) can have a benefit the community. They give people a semblance of normalcy which is good for the mental health of homebound Americans. If we’re talking about less than 1,000 vaccines, that’s not going to impact the national stockpile all that much.

“The Honorable Cock Jowles
January 19, 2021 at 2:56 pm

Any thoughts on Silver advocating for NBA players getting vaccinated “as a PSA?””

I mean, I did post this exact suggestion here five days ago. So I guess I’m happy that Adam Silver reads this blog and listens to the posters here. (If only Dolan did the same). (As you’ll see, I used the term PSA and everything)

“Z
January 14, 2021 at 7:16 pm

Forgive me if this has been discussed here already, but I got to thinking today: why doesn’t the NBA publicly vaccinate all 400 or so rostered NBA players and then just send them out to play? I understand that 20 year old men in top physical condition are last in line for the vaccine. But in the case of the NBA, which is obviously struggling to make this season work and perpetuate their billion dollar industry, it seems that this is a great chance to show people that vaccine works. It could serve as a full-season PSA, and save the season, and, considering they are basically giving unclaimed vaccines away at the end of the day to anybody who wants them so they don’t expire (at least they are doing this in the city that I live in), it seems not only possible, but desirable for all sides. Especially since we are talking about so few doses, and for such a high-profile subgroup.”

https://knickerblogger.net/brooklyn-nets-116-new-york-knicks-109-game-recap/

Re: teacher pay and educational outcomes, it’s complicated because teachers are not paid according to any reliable measure of productivity. Yet “merit” pay has been tried and has negative side effects as well.

But if you can pay your best teachers and administrators enough to make them want to do the toughest jobs, you’d probably have the best chance of improving outcomes meaningfully. Teachers (and administrators) unions are generally lukewarm on a) performance incentives/merit pay and b) significant pay differentials for “hard to staff” schools.

The whole “return on investment” thing is very hard to measure when it comes to educational expenditures. It takes years, even decades, to determine whether something works or not, if you can even determine it at all. And by the time you find out anything conclusive, the playing field…political, economical, etc… has probably changed dramatically.

I was tracking the vaccine usage around NY for awhile. There was a period where we had hundreds of thousands of doses just sitting around in a freezer somewhere because the priority standards were so tight there wasn’t enough demand. I was screaming about that with friends. When it gets to that point, screw priorities. Just make sure you use every dose and none go to waste. Eventually, they came to their senses and lowered the age to 65. Vaccinating basketball players as a PSA gives me mixed feelings. On the one hand they are probably the lowest priority in terms of risk and it would feel like an excuse to help the economics of the league. On the flip side it would help the community see it’s safe. I think I’d rather see a bunch of older athletes go public. Maybe Kareem can’t move the needle alone, but I think if there were a large number of high profile older athletes getting vaccinated that might do the trick. Heck, if Clyde got one at MSG that would move the needle in NY. 🙂

Unreason: Rather than the proportion of the national stockpile they’d use think of it this way: How many of the elderly super vulnerable people ahead of them in line would have to get sick and die for you to think the sense of normalcy provided by the NBA wasn’t worth it? Not many, if any, I’d guess. Prioritizing the most vulnerable ASAP really does affect life and death outcomes at this point.

In one recent poll only 42% of African-Americans said they would take the vaccine. If you can raise that number to 60-70 by the time the vaccine is more widely available it’ll make a huge difference. I highly doubt NBA PSA’s alone would do that but given the poor Covid outcomes for Blacks there’s got to be major pr campaign and the NBA should be a part of that. But even if you raise that 42% by just a percent or two it’d be well worth it from a numbers perspective.

It does have the potential to be a PR nightmare though- think Fox News interviewing someone whose grandmother just died and didn’t have access to the vaccine. You think Tucker Carlson wouldn’t lead a week of shows with “Why did LeBron get access to the vaccine before this sweet (white) grandma?”

While there are stylistic/athletic differences and the era has changed, does anyone see a little bit of a poor man’s Tracy McGrady in RJ’s most optimistic upside? RJ probably doesn’t have the physical gifts to handle a 30 % usage even at medium efficiency, but T-Mac was also never an efficient scorer…just a very solid all-around player.

Man, I didn’t realize how low McGrady’s TS% was in every other year other than 02-03.

One year over 53.2%. A few years under 50%. He had injury issues I know.

Excellent passer and rebounder though.

I don’t know. T-Mac just seemed a lot more athletic.

Re – Education Reform. All for that other stuff. I think there is a huge case to be made that most of the benefits of school aren’t measured in tests. I also totally agree that only a very long term study can isolate the benefit of a policy for the most part and when enough time has elapsed nobody cares anymore.

McGrady also came into the league blocking shots all over the place. He remains in the all time top five for blocks by a teenager, I think. (He largely stopped doing it when he became a guard in Orlando, but he was as clear of a “5 tool prospect” in Toronto as the nba had seen.)

I’ll never forget watching a Spurs-Rockets game with my son in 2004, where McGrady scored 13 points in the last 33 seconds to win the game for Houston.

We were both shouting at the TV, still to this day one of the craziest finishes I’ve ever seen to an NBA game

Z-man:
While there are stylistic/athletic differences and the era has changed, does anyone see a little bit of a poor man’s Tracy McGrady in RJ’s most optimistic upside? RJ probably doesn’t have the physical gifts to handle a 30 % usage even at medium efficiency, but T-Mac was also never an efficient scorer…just a very solid all-around player.

T-Mac was a much better ball-handler than RJ as well. I did come up with a good comp for RJ athletically- he’s late-Denver/early NYK Melo but without the first step. Really strong, but lacking explosion. The problem is Carmelo was bigger and more skilled (better handle, far better touch). RJ is smarter (at least bball IQ) and works harder so I think he could have a similar impact- I think 13/14 Carmelo could have been the second best guy on a very good team as long as the first best guy wasn’t Tyson Chandler. But something like .560-70 TS, 16-18 assist %, 11 rebound % without the usage. That’s a really nice player. But he has to make a big improvement in ball-handling and a huge- HUGE – improvement in shooting to anywhere close to that.

That’s where I was going with it Re T-Mac…

I never thought Zion would be this one dimensional. It’s a hell of a dimension though.

You are seriously underrating Melo by comparing RJ to him. Melo in his first 3 1/2 seasons with the Knicks was a great player. It went downhill pretty quickly after that but as much as people here love hating on him you can’t deny how good he was in the years under Woodson and even his first half season under D’Antoni. If RJ can come anywhere near close to that Melo it will be an incredible achievement.

wow, ya’ll certainly have a whole lot more to offer than just b-ball hot takes and numbers dissection…i appreciate it, got to try to stay green and learning, or get gray and wither away…

come for the basketball, stay for the knowledge 🙂

a day late, but, yeah, MLK had it right:
“Capitalism forgets that life is social. And the kingdom of brotherhood is found neither in the thesis of communism nor the antithesis of capitalism, but in a higher synthesis.”

Z-man: Right, but T-Mac’s TS% was only that high once, and in every other year it was at least 30 points lower. So he was still quite inefficient for a guy widely viewed as a top-5 player. Think about Kobe, who played in the same era and who many here criticized as an overrated, inefficient chucker. He never once had a TS% lower than .544 for 15 straight years during the T-Mac era.Paul Pierce’s career average TS% was better than T-Mac’s outlier best year! (Which is why it’s a joke to think that RJ will ever be on the same level with Pierce if you consider that Pierce’s TS% during his era was truly elite.)

Oh, I agree, I wasn’t really defending McGrady or anything, as much as I liked watching him and will argue that he was an underrated passer who deserved a chance with better teams, he had very clear flaws to his game and was overhyped because of all the points for sure. He was always bad shooting free throws and his 3 pointer varied from straight up terrible to wildly inconsistent.

I was more pointing out that we have to mediate ts% for whatever the league average is, meaning that T-Mac’s underwhelming numbers are still much better relatively to he average in the league than RJ’s are today. The same goes for Pierce, who was and still remains one of the very few examples of a guy who turned himself from a typical 2000’s NBA chucker to an efficient scorer (and an outlier that I wouldn’t really compare to Barrett because of that)

No, I think that Pierce was an efficient scorer in his soph and jr years in college (TS% .561 and .585) and the fact that he shot 38.6% from 3 on 189 attempts with excellent shooting mechanics suggested that he would be a much better shooter in the NBA than RJ has any chance of being with his low release and poor mechanics. RJ hasn’t cracked .500 TS% in the NBA and was .532 in college with the best player in college basketball by far drawing double and triple teams and creating all kinds of space for him. And as was pointed out, Pierce’s TS was elite in his era, where it would be merely above average today. So even if RJ gets up to Pierce’s career average of .568, it wouldn’t mean he’s the same player relative to the league.

Sure, he could eat some magic beans and become Pierce 2.0, but what are the odds? 5-1? 10-1? 100-1? I’ll take door #3

I’m pretty sure someone mentioned this above but different eras dude.

we haven’t hit rj’s age 21 year yet…. if rj improves this year why can’t he improve again next year? do age 20 players just stop improving or something .. is that the assumption?

Lonzo has the coolest ink I have ever seen

And btw, I’m not down on RJ…if I was, I wouldn’t have compared him to T-Mac. I just think you have to consider the nature of his game, his body, his mechanics, his make-up when you project who he may become as a player. Whatever the “results” the fact is that RJ was nowhere near as polished of an offensive player as the Melos and Pierces and Durants of the world, the scoring champion types, even in college. Read their scouting reports and compare what is said about their shooting mechanics. RJ can make his mechanics “repeatable” but there are flaws that he most likely can’t correct. His most likely outcome is a “decent spot-up shooter” who can score in more crafty ways nearer the basket. He’s a solid all-around player with strength, toughness and smarts. We can celebrate that without projecting him t be someone he’s not nor will ever be.

Whatever the “results” the fact is that RJ was nowhere near as polished of an offensive player as the Melos and Pierces and Durants of the world, the scoring champion types, even in college. Read their scouting reports and compare what is said about their shooting mechanics.

i said this earlier… but pierce was not in melo or durant’s class as a prospect… he was good but it took him awhile to get to where he was at kansas…. that’s where rj is on the development curve…. that’s why they are similar….

and yes pierce is superior in some ways but in terms of rebounding… ftr… 2p% … ft%…. assists…. they are basically in the same neighborhood…. no they are not exactly the same but i have no idea who you think is exactly the same if you want to dismiss pierce… he was good but he wasn’t that good….

that’s why the comp game is stupid…. people are different… history rhymes of course but if you’re just going to dismiss every little difference then why go through that exercise to begin with?

Is Jerami Grant in the category of Paul Pierce…a #1 option on a championship-level team? Is Jaylen Brown? (I don’t know why you would bring up Blake or Brook, they are not remotely comparable. This is about a comparison to a specific player, not can a guy improve his 3-pt shooting.)

I haven’t looked at adjusted fg% that much but guys in their 20s tend not have giant spreads between career lows and career highs unless there are injury issues.

you realize you’re comparing age 19 rj to a bunch of guys who came into the league much later than him right?

and what are we looking at ts? rj put up an 85 in ts… what are you talking about? efg? 84…. fg? 87 what measure are we looking at?

Jaylen Brown came into the league after a year in college and put up a .539 TS%. The next year he upped it to .562. Ironically, I was one of the few here who thought very highly of him back then. RJ has yet to crack .500. He’s nearly .070 below where Brown was in his first year. He is .090 below where Brown was in his second year. Those are enormous deficits.

If Randle has a chance of being an All Star this year, Knox has a chance of being a decent player and Mitch has a chance of playing without fouling why can’t RJ be The Next Truth?
Thibs has also worked with Pierce in Bos.
This might help.
Starting RJ from the start of the season and believing in him wholeheartedly as it seems so far may do miracles on his development.

Of course being like Pierce as Zman said means becoming a HOF caliber player which is tough as fuck but not impossible also if he works his ass off like the greek freak.
We talk about SOLID DESIRE here.
Not just improving his fg%

I feel like these djphan vs the board debates on the matter of Barrett have tinges of ruruland hearts Carmelo all over them. But in the case of ruru, we had years and years of evidence against him, and with RJ, all he has to say is “but he’s young!”. Still, I think we all know where this is eventually going, and you don’t really want to be on the ruru side of history…

Okay lets limit it to 19 year olds and rather than career highs I’ll give you age 19 season (so year two for Kobe and other who came in at 18) and then their career averages. For some guys it’s a little misleading because they really declined late- add roughly 2 points for the guys who played into their mid-thirties. For some reason that’s the only field where BR won’t let you crop out years.

Kobe: 97/101
Garnett: 103/106
LBJ: 95/112
T-Mac: 98/98
Stanley Johnson: 83/85
Bam: 102/109
Jamal Murray: 93/96
Beal: 88/98
Winslow: 96/88
Myles Turner: 103/104
Kyrie: 103/101
Tyus Jones: 79/92 (Jones barely played at 19- he put up 90 when he first got real minutes at 21)
Melo: 97/97
Booker: 94/97
Tatum 96/94
CJ Miles: 81/95 (He was actually better at 18 with an 86.)
Giannis: 90/112
Josh Smith 99/99
Al Harrington 105/100
Dragan Bender 96/101
Carmelo: 97/97
Ingram 88/95
Durant: 94/108

There’s 22 guys. If you’re not LBJ, KD or Giannis it’s doubtful your adjusted 2 pt% is going to change drastically. Again, RJ is starting at 80 and he’s made a big jump to 88 so far this year. My memory is terrible and I can no longer search for age 19 seasons on BR so if anybody wants to give me a list of guys who played at 19 for a larger sample size I’ll look them up but I looked at a lot of guys who came in at twenty and there doesn’t seem to a big difference in terms of career outcomes. If you’re a crappy shooter at 19 or 20 you’re most likely going to be below average for your career. Of course, 2 point fg % isn’t the be all and end all. If he can get to the line at an elite level or shoot threes he can still post a very good TS% but it’s not a good sign.

And seriously I’ve never posted anything that ever implied that I think 20 year olds can’t improve- you were referring to a post where I explicitly acknowledged that RJ has improved a lot this year and could possibly get close to average next year but that that would be an unusual improvement and Jeremi Grant aside I still think it is. So yeah, your response seemed incredibly dickish. If you really don’t get that then I’d rather not engage with you at all.

I’ve got some severe insomnia so I decided to look at the career league adjusted 2 pt. fg % for every vet (6 years plus) in the Eastern Conference to see what young RJ’s numbers might portend and I have returned from this Quixotic quest to tell you: nothing particularly good. In terms of 2 pt fg % it’s less about age than it is about experience. Basically, by the 2500 minute mark everybody is within 10 points of where their career mark will be and most guys are within 5 or 6 points though some stay flat or decline. The exceptions are superstars (LBJ, KD, Giannis) and centers that quit trying to do anything other than dunk. Lowry, Hill, Dragic, by the 2500 minute mark they’re all league average shooters and pretty close to their career numbers- Lowry actually declines. RJ winding up at 96 or 97 would be a really good outcome. If that’s his career average that means you’d probably see several above average seasons. More likely he’s a little south of that. It’s still not a huge sample size- maybe I’ll do the Western Conference tomorrow! Of course, I have to admit I have no idea what a mediocre 2 pt fg% means for his career prospects but at least I killed an hour or two.

The most encouraging thing about RJ’s start is that most of his peripheral #s have improved – rebounding, assists, turnovers. His steal percentage is down a little but basically the only thing that has trended worse is his 3p shooting. He’s up to 60% at the rim (from 56.8), and up to 38% from long 2 (from 29%). And of course his FT shooting is much improved. I’m ok with incremental improvement, and my inclination is that his 3p shooting will trend back up — hard to imagine they would let him shoot from 3 as much as he does if he was bricking them in practice too.

Yeah, basically 0.1% chance he turns into someone that can be best player on a good team. But if he tops out as someone who is like 18/7/4 with average efficiency and good defense, that can be a #1 or #2 option in the second quarter when bench units are on the floor – that is still super valuable, ie. a single or double, not a home run.

i seriously have no idea how saying that ‘paul pierce is an upside case’ morphed into rj is going to be paul pierce… i mean i know how that happened…. but i find it pretty common how often someone makes a mountain out of a mole hill and winds up arguing something that no one was arguing….

I feel like these djphan vs the board debates on the matter of Barrett have tinges of ruruland hearts Carmelo all over them. But in the case of ruru, we had years and years of evidence against him, and with RJ, all he has to say is “but he’s young!”. Still, I think we all know where this is eventually going, and you don’t really want to be on the ruru side of history…

how is the clarke vs rj debate going? should we do a poll on that to see how that’s going or do we need more time on that?

i am really not saying anything controversial…. everyone was saying that rj can’t be a good player… well you know he’s kind of an ok player right now… and now it’s that he can’t be a really really good player… well maybe if you give him more time he might show that too…

why do i get so much pushback on this? it’s like ppl would rather not give rj the benefit of the doubt which is what these arguments boil down to…. i’m saying give him the benefit of the doubt… he’s young and he’s already improving right before your eyes… why is it super important that he’s paul pierce vs tracy mcgrady as his top end….

i don’t get it… what exactly is it that i’m so offbase about? am i saying something so crazy about rj or something?

Natural talent, work ethic, good developmental coaching, being levelheaded, avoiding the pitfalls of fame and money at a young age, basketball IQ, injuries, and other factors all play a part in a player’s development.

Part of the joy of building a team via draft is watching young players add to their game and improve their existing skills over the course of a season and year to year.

These days many players don’t peak until their late 20s and some stay fit and keep learning until their early 30s. It’s hard to know how good a young player will get.

RJ has a LOT of good qualities going for him. I have no doubt he’s going to get a lot better as long as injuries don’t derail his development. Instead of debating his ceiling or having these game to game ups and downs, let’s just enjoy the ride. He’s going to get a lot better. He doesn’t have to become a top 5 player in the league to be an important piece on a championship team.

I don’t know why people love to argue about RJ this much. Why don’t we just wait till he has another 3000 minutes under his belt? That should be in early March. We will know more then.

The idea that you might have passed on Zion for Ja would have seemed unbelievable to me during the draft but Zion, as I said last night, is so one dimensional it’s crazy. And it’s a lot harder to score efficiently when you can’t shoot threes and you only hit 64% from the free throw line. He also is clearly a tweener on defense.

Still going to be a great player but perhaps not the generational player I think many thought he would be. I wiffle waffled about how good I thought his career would be and that seems to have been the appropriate stance.

Just waiting for Jowles to wander into the Zion discourse…

How about De’Andre Hunter? Would anyone not trade RJ for him without thinking about it?

About over-hyper players,

In his 4th year Lonzo Ball is shooting 38,7%, 28,2% from three (on 7 FG/Game!) and 58,3% FT, not a good model for Lamelo to look at…

And to think that I’m so annoyed with Elf’s shooting…

There are outlier seasons but the average stays within that 10 pt spread.

nicos… what do you think i’m saying? do you actually think i said that rj was going to be the next paul pierce?

no? then why are you looking at averages? i already said it was unlikely at the very onset… so what point do you want to make and what does this work youre doing supposed to show?

I don’t know why people love to argue about RJ this much.

Because Frank is hurt? 🙂

I’ll say this…I think the gap between him and Zion is less than what was originally thought by many here. I was starstruck by Zion early in his college career and still would have drafted him over RJ, but disembarked from the all-time great hype train by draft time and right now I would strongly consider trading him for Ja straight up.

Sorry, who is the “him” in the beginning of this passage? RJ? The gap between Zion and RJ? Huh?

See, if you pick Morant over Zion at this point, that’s fair. Zion is one of the most dominant post scorers I’ve seen with my own two eyes — he is outrageously good around the rim. But this is the 3PT era, Zion can’t score from outside, and Morant looks to be an excellent distance shooter moving forward. Lillard is IMO below Morant’s ceiling, and Lillard is an elite modern PG, maybe the best PG in the game last season. That’s how good Morant is and can be, to my mind.

If you are saying that the gap between Zion and RJ isn’t that big, you are way too deep into the Clorox.

thenoblefacehumper:
A little surprised at the pushback djphan is getting for essentially saying the range of outcomes for Barrett is still pretty wide. Paul Pierce will always sound like an irrationally optimistic comparison for just about any prospect, but as a 100th percentile outcome I don’t think it’s insane. Not a lot of guys reach their 100th percentile outcome!

Paul Pierce’s adjusted TS was never below league average until the embarrassing end in L.A. He comes in at 105 as 21 year old rookie and for his career was 107. Yes RJ is only 20 but he’s sitting at 84 right now. He’d have to add 90 pts of TS just to get to league average. Nothing in RJ’s profile suggests an outcome like Pierce- absolutely nothing. Similar rebound/assist numbers maybe, but scoring, zip. It’s a pointless comparison- Paul Pierce without the scoring efficiency isn’t Paul Pierce.

What did Biden say about RJ?

Is he a believer?

NBA Central on Twitter is saying we have interest in Lonzo.

Specifically, NBA Central was aggregating ScoopB’s tweet on the subject:

@ScoopB
Without shirking the historic nature of this morning: I’ve heard a few teams have inquired about & are interested in the availability of New Orleans Pelicans guard, Lonzo Ball.

Teams interested include: Knicks, Raptors, Mavericks, Clippers, Magic

If Lonzo’s shooting is his shooting, how much of an upgrade is he over our current point guard situation? And what would you be willing to trade for him, given his contract status?

today is most definitely a good day…

Alan:
Specifically, NBA Central was aggregating ScoopB’s tweet on the subject:

If Lonzo’s shooting is his shooting, how much of an upgrade is he over our current point guard situation? And what would you be willing to trade for him, given his contract status?

If his shooting is his shooting from last year, probably a substantial upgrade over Payton in terms of fit. I’m not really sure what’d I’d be willing give up, though.

If the Pelicans denied him an extension I’d just wait and see if he goes on the market, then. If it’s going to take a half-way significant asset to get the deal done I probably wouldn’t pull the trigger.

I’ll say no as a free agent, you could convince me to take him in exchange for Payton and DSJ if NO wants to trade him.

Maybe? If they think Quickley is a small 2, a big 1 would be a pretty good fit, I guess. Lonzo is probably a better defender than Payton, but a worse passer by the numbers. You’d have to think he could learn to hit his FTs, for one, and be interested in keeping him around. Doesn’t seem worthwhile, more just shuffling chairs.

I’d maybe do DSj and Frank if they really want to kick the tires? It wouldn’t piss me off.

#I don’t know why people love to argue about RJ this much.

Because Frank is hurt? :-)#

Best post by far!
The Truth!

I was admittedly curious about Lonzo before the season started when it seemed possible that he may have been on the trading block (post-Jrue trade, pre-George Hill trade). But a dude who’s injury-prone, can’t shoot, can’t get to the line nor shoot at it when he gets there…I don’t see how he fits with us at all

***This Biden inauguration feels like when Mike Miller replaced Fizdale. It is immediately noticeable how huge an upgrade someone who isn’t even that special provides over what we’d had.***

The best. Well done, Hubert.

He is not.

But Potus and our new most divisive prospect have the same three initials.

Coincidence?

Owen:
What did Biden say about RJ?

Is he a believer?

He’s waiting for China to tell the NBA what to say and for that to be communicated to him via Hollywood right after Jeremy Lin gets an NBA gig again. 🙂

DRed:
very long thread can someone tell me if we reached a consensus on whether or not RJ is Paul Pierce?

Last post I promise- one number. Pierce’s career adjusted TS in today’s numbers would be .600. Unless you think RJ’s going to become a lights out volume three point shooter there’s no real path of getting there.

Owen:
He is not.

But Potus and our new most divisive prospect have the same three initials.

Coincidence?

What does Qanon say? Conspiracy! You can’t spell JRB without RJB.
🙂

The Honorable Cock Jowles: Sorry, who is the “him” in the beginning of this passage? RJ? The gap between Zion and RJ? Huh?

See, if you pick Morant over Zion at this point, that’s fair. Zion is one of the most dominant post scorers I’ve seen with my own two eyes — he is outrageously good around the rim. But this is the 3PT era, Zion can’t score from outside, and Morant looks to be an excellent distance shooter moving forward. Lillard is IMO below Morant’s ceiling, and Lillard is an elite modern PG, maybe the best PG in the game last season. That’s how good Morant is and can be, to my mind.

If you are saying that the gap between Zion and RJ isn’t that big, you are way too deep into the Clorox.

RJ:Pierce::Zion:LeBron

I was admittedly curious about Lonzo before the season started when it seemed possible that he may have been on the trading block (post-Jrue trade, pre-George Hill trade). But a dude who’s injury-prone, can’t shoot, can’t get to the line nor shoot at it when he gets there…I don’t see how he fits with us at all

Igno-Bot pretty much said exactly how i feel about lonzo…yeah, no thanks…

very long thread can someone tell me if we reached a consensus on whether or not RJ is Paul Pierce?

RJ faintly resembles Paul Pierce in shape and style (from a distance, with a squint) so the conversation will never really go away, But he is not Paul Pierce.

I disagree. I think Biden actually is that special.

well played.

If RJ really wants to be the next Paul Pierce, he’s going to have learn to go down with what looks like a career ending injury, get taken off in a wheelchair, and return to score a bunch of 4th quarter points.

Dude should have played in the Serie A soccer league.

it’s not really fair to continually be misinterprted on something i’ve stopped and clarified multiple times…

Don’t you find it weird that a lot of people on this board appear, to you, to be misinterpreting you, despite your attempts to clarify?

well, that didn’t work out: queue andy from parks and recreation commenting on passive aggressive behavior…

which, is actually a quite effect technique for reconciling online disputes…

Mike Woodson played with David Wood for a season in Houston. Maybe a reporter for KB could reach out to him for comment?

https://ca.sports.yahoo.com/news/former-nba-player-turned-conspiracy-theorist-stages-oneman-pro-trump-protest-amid-inaugural-security-prepared-for-thousands-183053944.html

Don’t you find it weird that a lot of people on this board appear, to you, to be misinterpreting you, despite your attempts to clarify?

it’s pretty weird yes… especially when there were a few people who understood me perfectly fine….

i seriously have no idea how saying that ‘paul pierce is an upside case’ morphed into rj is going to be paul pierce… i mean i know how that happened…. but i find it pretty common how often someone makes a mountain out of a mole hill and winds up arguing something that no one was arguing….

is it really my fault when i then get comments like this?

RJ faintly resembles Paul Pierce in shape and style (from a distance, with a squint) so the conversation will never really go away, But he is not Paul Pierce.

i don’t find it surprising how people misterpret because they go with their first emotional reaction… paul pierce =/= rj because i hate guys who play like rj and i love paul pierce…. once that happens anything anyone else says is irrelevant… and i have people spending phd energy refuting anything resembling a similarity between pierce and rj and another guy who keeps wanting to make it an rj = pierce fight…. all because of one relatively harmless comment….

how is that not weird? and why would that be my fault that people behave that way?

there’s so much better use of oxygen… this is a stupid conversation that i’m forced to be in or else i have to constantly defend a position i never made ad infinitem… it just sucks…

RJ, Burks, and Bullock are all 6’6″.

Just to complete our inane comparisons, Pierce is 6’7″.

Pierce did outweigh all of them by 20-30 lbs.

Z:
Mike Woodson played with David Wood for a season in Houston. Maybe a reporter for KB could reach out to him for comment?

https://ca.sports.yahoo.com/news/former-nba-player-turned-conspiracy-theorist-stages-oneman-pro-trump-protest-amid-inaugural-security-prepared-for-thousands-183053944.html

I remember him playing in Italy for a bunch of games, his team went to the italians Finals that year.

He wasn’t too popular for his political views at the time, the Wall was still up (albeit for a few months) and he played in a notoriuos “red” town.

Maybe he didn’t know that “colors work in reverse” outside the US… 🙂

self-awareness is elusive for those who aren’t self-aware enough to embrace it

why do you have such a hardon for me? it’s just incessant with you…. i frankly feel pretty uncomfortable about some dude on the internet thinking about me this much…..

Brian Cronin: Yeah, it’s so weird, as RJ looks taller than those other guys to me. It’s fascinating. It’s obviously just a matter of perspective that I’ve just been missing over his two years here.

I still can’t believe Toppin is listed as 6’9 and Randle at 6’8…

Does that seem completely and totally out of bounds for RJ next season, such that it’s ridiculous to even suggest Pierce as a 100th percentile outcome?

Are we talking about a raw comparison or a league-adjusted one? If RJ ends up a guy who shoots 107 TS%+ (Pierce’s career figure) and also takes 19,465 FGA and 8,578 FTA, he will be a hall-of-famer. If RJ ends up a guy who shoots .530 TS% (also Pierce’s career figure) with that same volume, he will help his franchise lose hundreds of games more than it wins.

guys this is stupid… we’ll have much more fun talking about rj barrett being the next tracy mcgrady….. that is a much more unifying topic apparently…..

just drop the pierce talk…. forget i said it!

i tend to worship with chocolate chip cookies, weed and video games…we all can worship in our different ways…

It’s got to be a chocolate jesus

Are we talking about a raw comparison or a league-adjusted one? If RJ ends up a guy who shoots 107 TS%+ (Pierce’s career figure) and also takes 19,465 FGA and 8,578 FTA, he will be a hall-of-famer. If RJ ends up a guy who shoots .530 TS% (also Pierce’s career figure) with that same volume, he will help his franchise lose hundreds of games more than it wins.

Pierce’s career TS% was .568, the league average for his career was .530. For RJ to get to a 107 TS+, assuming the league average TS% stays stable around .565, he’d need a .600 TS%

In the context of a 100th percentile outcome I wouldn’t rule that out. You’re banking on him becoming a good 3-point shooter and continuing to improve in other areas.

I agree we should drop it though because there seems to be a disconnect in how people are interpreting the likelihood of a best-case scenario. I’m not even a huge Barrett optimist! I just think we’re still looking at a wide range of possible outcomes and it’s not insane to suggest the absolute best one looks something like Pierce.

I don’t even think many of us are misinterpreting djphan. His comments just led to an energetic discussion about whether RJ COULD become Pierce. Perfectly acceptable to take the conversation there, and it’s no slap at (or misinterpretation of) djphan to do so.

100% Percentile/Best Case Scenario for Quickley?

Lou Williams? Jason Terry? Mahmoud Abdul-Rauf? Terry Porter?

(Jamaal Crawford is two inches taller)

***I remember when Z-Man used to make me feel this way. Now he hardly pays attention to me and only sends “you up?” messages when he’s drunk. It goes by so fast.***

Hubert in top form today, keep it up

At some point, though, djphan, you have to trust that you’ve made your point.

i appreciate that… but i let this go awhile ago and this is the result … if you don’t want anymore more of these smooth brain intellectual conversations about these narrow outcomes then something needed to be said…..

@IanBegley
Alec Burks is probable for tomorrow vs GSW, Knicks say. Frank Ntilikina and Austin Rivers are doubtful, team says.

We could definitely use Burks’ shooting and playmaking, and Rivers being doubtful spares Thibs from having to make a larger rotation decision just yet.

I’m not misinterpreting DJphan, I just disagree with him- I think where you are after 2500 minutes played (RJ’s not quite there) says a lot about the player you wind up becoming no matter what age you come into the league- you’ll still improve but the ceiling does get lower. I made an extremely long winded argument (for which I really do apologize) about 2 pt fg % to make that case but could have done so with BPM as well. If that makes me QAnon, whatever.

Alan: We could definitely use Burks’ shooting and playmaking, and Rivers being doubtful spares Thibs from having to make a larger rotation decision just yet.

I’m curious to watch Thibs’ rotations when (if) all are available at the same time.
With DSJ already relegated to garbage time, who’ll be the odd men out?

thenoblefacehumper: In the context of a 100th percentile outcome I wouldn’t rule that out. You’re banking on him becoming a good 3-point shooter and continuing to improve in other areas.

But you’d be the first one to bristle at someone bringing up the 100th percentile outcome for Frank or Knox. Generally speaking, any such talk in the KB forum is considered a hot take and roundly scoffed at. You’ve scoffed at such suggestions a billion times. AND THAT”S OK!! It’s part of what makes this forum fun.

I like this kind of sports bar arguments, as long as it doesn’t become a war of religion.

It amuse me when people throw in names that I could’ve forgot or neglected, or make me view things from a different perspective… it’s fun even if I disagree with other people assessments.

Now I’ll start thinking at 100% Percentile/Best Case Scenario for Frank and Knox, I can’t get one quick… 🙂

Strat has his Frank

Don’t tell Frank, but I’ve been having a fling with IQ ever since Thibs said he was one of the best shooters in the league and I watched him play for literally 5 minutes and could already tell he was way more skilled than just being a shooter and we might have made a “score” in the draft.

holy shit this board has now walked itself down the semiotic plank of technical truths right into the sea of complete bullshit. djphan there is a difference between a stochastic series of literally true statements (rj might with some probability turn out to be a small bird) separated by jolting punctuation and, say, a conversation. people like tnfh who actually try to read the half translated instructions accompanying their $14.99 side tables with attached magazine rack and mp3 charger may seem to grok your godelian consistency, but that’s not a compliment. these are semantic gold diggers. they will find meaning in your teeth if you open wide enough. but there is a reason so few ikea authors turn out to be poets.

you once thought that someone with a high opinion of rj should reasonably expect him to be a solid starter from the get. now you accurately point out that it is quite possible for good players to be quite shitty when young. during the preseason you were providing near daily updates on the generally favorable undulations in his two point shooting percentage. almost immediately thereafter, with reason securely on your side, you chided the hoi polloi not to panic over small samples when they worried about rj’s crappy two point shooting to start the year.

if you are just here to say what you think at any given moment and crossing guard-correct those who seem to stray from a near axiomatic truth (rj is at least 1 in a googol to win a gold medal in slalom) then don’t let me stop you. but if you want to actually communicate, show your ass a little. “hey, i thought rj would probably be good right away, but i still have hope bc look at these motherfuckers…” is also a way to say literally true things. and telling people not to panic about knicks basketball is just the worst possible karma and 150 proof that you are under 35. panic. always panic.

TopOaf:
@Z-man,

Is that non-sequitur supposed to show that you’re not being petty (or letting your personal dislike of djphan color your response to the content of his posts in this thread)?

I’m not sure, probably working I suppose. Is “the day djphan was not on board with the IQ pick” supposed to fall in the 9/11, moon landing, assassination of JFK category where everyone who was alive at the time should remember where they were? Is there a point you are trying to make?

I’ve been around here since Jowles’ bar mitzvah and most people know my schtick by now. If you want to join team anti-Z-man, there’s a waiting list. For now, go fuck yourself.

yo z… what were you saying about self awareness… something or other? i missed that….

Donnie Walsh:
Having pet Knicks is a big part of what we do here…

djphan has his RJ
Strat has his Frank
ruru had his Melo
owen had his D Lee
Z-Man had his Baker
Mike K had his Sweetney
jon abbey had his Balkman
Reub had his Wroten
I had my Fields

I think Owen wins this battle royale.

My pet Knick predates this forum, and my screen name is dedicated to him. Yes, I’m talking about the man whose career 3P% matched the #44 on his jersey… the man who would have won Patrick Ewing a title if he’d played more than 4 minutes in game 7 in Houston…. Carolina legend Hubert Davis.

(Seriously, that dude shot 44.1% on threes for his career. Born in the wrong era.)

Donnie Walsh:
Having pet Knicks is a big part of what we do here…

djphan has his RJ
Strat has his Frank
ruru had his Melo
owen had his D Lee
Z-Man had his Baker
Mike K had his Sweetney
jon abbey had his Balkman
Reub had his Wroten
I had my Fields

Baker will be back. He’ll be back and he’ll be millions…

djphan: nicos… i appreciate the work you did…. that’s the type of engagement i like… but i really do think you did not get what i have been saying….so if you can do me a solid and reread what i wrote and just drop it until rj goes 0 for 11 and you can rub it in my face then i would love that….

Thanks- I don’t want to rub anything in anyone’s face- I want RJ to be good! And I do think he can be good. So let’s just let the good karma flow. Arguing about whether someone can be as good as Pierce is a very good thing in the Knicks universe- something that we couldn’t do with some previous draft picks who shall remain nameless!

When I hear the word semiotics I know PT has entered the room.

The one thing I have to say about our least favorite Boston Argentinian Striker is that he did at one point have about 37 bullets pass through his body and then later won an NBA title. I hate him and the Celtics but I always thought that was a little.cool.

Grocer
January 20, 2021 at 1:27 pm
I’ll say no as a free agent, you could convince me to take him in exchange for Payton and DSJ if NO wants to trade him.
Maybe? If they think Quickley is a small 2, a big 1 would be a pretty good fit, I guess. Lonzo is probably a better defender than Payton, but a worse passer by the numbers. You’d have to think he could learn to hit his FTs, for one, and be interested in keeping him around. Doesn’t seem worthwhile, more just shuffling chairs.

I’d maybe do DSj and Frank if they really want to kick the tires? It wouldn’t piss me off.

The Ringer article actually makes him sound like Frank but with worse three point shooting— meanders on the perimeter, doesn’t drive, big guard who’s a good defender. Why would we trade Frank for him?

Just keep digging, Z-mad

I’ll give you the benefit of the doubt and assume that you think responding to sarcasm with sarcasm is clever or something, but note that I also non-sarcastically laughed at you for getting so angry so quickly that you tried to pull rank on knickerblogger (lol)

The Ringer article actually makes him sound like Frank but with worse three point shooting— meanders on the perimeter, doesn’t drive, big guard who’s a good defender. Why would we trade Frank for him?

Here is a good example of a Frank-based post that does in fact make me bristle.

TopOaf:
Just keep digging, Z-mad

I’ll give you the benefit of the doubt and assume that you think responding to sarcasm with sarcasm is clever or something, but note that I also non-sarcastically laughed at you for getting so angry so quickly that you tried to pull rank on knickerblogger (lol)

The funny part is that you actually think I’m angry. Go fuck yourself is a term of endearment around here, newbie…but stick around, you’ll learn.

Shams:

Detroit Pistons rookie Killian Hayes will rest and rehab his right hip injury and be re-evaluated in eight weeks.

Tough go for the kid, especially if the ping-pong balls bounce in a way that puts Cade in a Pistons uniform next season.

pepper: was that Mindaugas Kusminksas?

No, my beloved Ron, rip

In other news:

NY_KnicksPR
@NY_KnicksPR
·
1h
Injury Report 1/21 at Golden State: Probable – Alec Burks (sprained left ankle); Doubtful – Frank Ntilikina (sprained right knee) and Austin Rivers (sore right Achilles).

nicos: For those of you as invested in their love story as I was I have bad news- From his Wikipedia page: “In 2017, after 6 years of dating, he married Lithuanian ballet dancer Egl? Andreikait?. The couple announced their separation in 2019.” I thought it would last forever!

I always thought their ceiling was much longer as well like George and Barbara Bush given the stats in that first few months after the marriage was consumated…but just goes to show you how much noise is in the early stages of the journey…

With perfect timing, here’s former KB author David Vertsberger with another 100th percentile best case for RJ.

(just kidding, I think this one is more on point)

I’m sure some of you will know this but I didn’t till just now.
Which Knick pitched a shutout in MLB?

And by the way, I wish everyone a very sincere Happy Trump is Finally no Longer President Day! We made it and can all exhale now.

For Frank, Patrick Beverley?

i have a tough time when comparing/projecting players to separate their physical appearance and athletic strengths with their style of play…

RJ’s main strengths seem to be his strength and his poise/personality…i think the demar derozan comp is about the closest…

it seemed pretty obvious last year that he has the potential to be a team leader both in terms of his play and personality…he seems to have a solid all around game, he can’t shoot – but, he can get to the rim…

Max:
Ward and Beverley, tenacious defenders with some on-off ability to shoot the three…
I think we are in the park…
what about Doug Christie?

If Frank chugs some steroids, maybe he will morph into a Marcus Smart wannabe. He’d need the roid rage to meet that standard.

Unreason: Yep.
Too easy I guess for the likes of you knowledgeable lot. But I had no clue. Impressive accomplishment.

He was also a player-coach for the Pistons at age 25. It was different being an NBA fan in the 60’s because there were only 8 opposing teams. You could go to a doubleheader at MSG and literally have nearly half the league in one building. You would hear Marv’s impeccable play-by-play and would get to know (and fear) opposing players on a whole different level than today. Dave D was a star with the Pistons along with Dave Bing, and when we traded for him, you just knew we were going to win a championship.

During the Hubie Brown era, my buddy and I snuck down from the greens to the center court reds after halftime. A few minutes in, i felt a tap on my shoulder. I turn around and it was Dave D himself…we unknowingly sat in his GM seats!

last year was pretty awful for him, but – knicks…

we don’t need to decide anything with him at the moment, but i’d bet on julius long term…

Two guys who I never thought would amount to anything based on their Knicks scrubdom were Doug Christie and Matt Barnes. I could see Frank being one of those kinds of players.

One guy who I did think very highly of even before he made the team was John Starks, who was impressive during preseason. I remember being pissed when they initially favored Greg Grant, a tiny change-of-pace PG over Starks. The rest is history!

Love that anecdote, Z-man.

I know it’s been said before, but the Nets defense is HO -rendous

wow, harden with 7 points on 6 shot attempts through 3 – hahahahahahahahahahahahahaha

Capela with 10 offensive rebounds at half time (!), that’s got to be close to the record for a single half since I think the all-time record for a single game is 21 by Moses Malone

Have to say, used to love Capela, but gave up on him a bit because of the injuries – never would have guessed that would have performed as the best player on the Hawks up to this point in the season

My current comp for RJ. Mini Jeff Green

Jeff Green is a great example just how absurdly high the collective talent in the NBA is – good/great size, yet still nimble on his feet, decent ball skills, can shoot a bit, throws down some nasty yams from time to time and still has varied between scrub and below-average player for his entire career basically – just wild!

#Somewhere between Paul George and Ricky Pierce!

Man, Ricky Pierce was a badass#

RJ’s a badmtfkr on the rise!
Keep on believing

That was a really good team. Pressey was an all-star level player, was surprised that he never made the team. Tough era I guess.

I don’t like Sexton much, but if he wants to shoot like that to beat the Nets I don’t mind

Sexton went off

The inauguration ceremonies were spectacular. One of my former students was in it!

“Why does Brian hate us?”, he pondered between the 4th and 5th minute of loading the latest KB thread

Frank’s ceiling is Mardy Collins. His floor is Frank Ntilikina.

Frank’s Realistic ceiling could be something between Nate Mc Millan and Thabo Sefolosha.
His floor is a waiter on a cafe et bistro in Montmartre.

If all planets turn his way…who knows? The sky is the limit!

“You’re going to stay locked in this thread together until you can all get along!”

– Brian, probably

We are going to get killed by the Warriors tomorrow

c’mon glass, have a little faith in our formidable sixth man…

Hi Geo! I am a first time poster, very long time lurker (almost 12 years of lurking, I remember the days of Ted Nelson). I couldn’t resist to chime in on your story. Please share on the next thread!