Knicks Morning News (2018.08.22)

Continuing yesterday’s stretch-waive discussion;

I don’t think moving Lee alone gets us to 2 max slots, and I’ve long thought that was an unrealistic goal this summer. I’d rather add one guy (Kyrie Irving) and let TH2 (opt out year and I think he does it) and Lee come off the books in the summer of 2020. If we have to choose between a 30 year old Jimmy Butler on a four year max deal and a top 3 draft choice on a rookie scale deal, I’m taking the latter all day every day. Nothing would make me happier than having Kyrie to orchestrate a fast break with Knox and Zion on the wings and KP as the trailer, and then having KP and Frank lead the defense.

Not moving Lee last year when he was playing very well will go down as a remarkable blunder. We shouldn’t have wanted anything for him. Getting out of the last two years of his contract was enough to get back in a trade. We will now most likely have to give up an asset to move him, stretch him, or be stuck with him for two years.

@3

It really makes no sense if management is so willing to open up cap that they’re stretching Noah. Like I’ve been saying the decisions of this administration haven’t been huge or a disgrace, but they don’t seem cohesive or structured around a clear plan. It’s my biggest fear that they’ll just get desperate when the opportunity to sign a big FA comes up and we’ll really regret not having had a more clear plan in place.

If they want to make big moves like Irving plus Butler they needed to have started moving pieces last season for it to be really effective, and even then THJ’s contract is probably going to prevent them from chasing two max guys, which makes the bad contract even worse in retrospect.

Btw, I’ve seen so many instagram videos of Timmy working on his offense this summer; I get that he’s embracing the #1 option on offense till KP returns but REALLY needs to learn how to defend. He’s 6’6” with decent lateral movement. All NBA defender is the only major difference between a 30yr Jimmy Butler on max contract and a 27yr old Timmy making $18m. Should work with old man to learn the nuances of picking pockets. If he averages 2 steals a game and puts up 20+ consistently, then he can stay. Not worried about his efficiency because that will increase once he has KP and a Kyrie playing alongside him. My two cents.

There’s always a chance Butler and Irving think teaming up with KP, Knox, Frank, Robinson, and our #1 draft pick in “New York” after another year of development will give them enough money making opportunities and a long enough window to compete that they’d be willing to leave a little on the table.

There’s also a chance that if NY thinks it can land both of them, putting future picks on the table becomes an option. No matter what you think of the move, adding Kyrie and Butler to the current team is getting them way out of the lottery even if there is an injury here or there.

It would be 2 x 20 with the trade kicker. And I respectfully disagree; that is insanely overpriced (even without the kicker). He’s a league average guard making ~20% of the salary cap. We’re talking about a Ryan Anderson level contract, and that’s proven impossible to move.

Maybe Knox is too much, but you at least have to give up something equal to two first round picks (Frank and a future 1, Frank and Mitchell, etc).

All NBA defender is the only major difference between a 30yr Jimmy Butler on max contract and a 27yr old Timmy making $18m.

This is an insanely bad take.

Butler shoots 30 points better from 3, 50 points better from the field, 20 points higher 3FG%, 60 points higher TS%, and double the FTr of THJr. He also has better TRB%, AST%, STL%, BLK%, OWS (by a ton), DWS, WS, WS/48, OBPM, DBPM, BPM, and VORP. There is literally nothing on a basketball court that THJr does better than Butler.

Butler shoots 30 points better from 3, 50 points better from the field, 20 points higher 3FG%, 60 points higher TS%, and double the FTr of THJr. He also has better TRB%, AST%, STL%, BLK%, OWS (by a ton), DWS, WS, WS/48, OBPM, DBPM, BPM, and VORP. There is literally nothing on a basketball court that THJr does better than Butler.

Yeah but other than that…..

The thing about adding Kyrie Irving to a team that has Lee and Hardaway Jr as expiring deals along with tradeable assets like Kevin Knox, Dame Dotson, Mitchell Robinson, Frank Ntilikina, our 2019 Duke freshman, and the 2020 pick means that you now have a lot of ammunition to land a legit superstar in a trade right around the time Anthony Davis should be sick of New Orleans.

You think New Orleans turns down Kevin Knox, Mitchell Robinson, a top 5 protected 2020 pick, and salary filler if Anthony Davis makes it clear he wants out? Boston obviously has the most impressive package to offer but we’d be in the discussions. Nothing would bring me more joy than signing Irving away from the Celtics and then trading the (probably overrated) farm away for Anthony Davis so the Celtics couldn’t have him.

I’m also not sure guys learn to play better D and get significantly better, unless they are very young. You can try harder, you can get in better shape (like KOQ did), you can be in a better system….it all helps a little. but, I don’t think any of those are Timmy’s problem.

having said that, I’m higher on him than most of you are. he’s the 64th highest paid player in the league. his market value as is, i would put at like 13m (friggen dion waiters got that). I just wish we hadn’t bid against ourselves for him.

it’s the opportunity cost….what would we do w/ that $$ instead? some of the guys we traditionally would have spent it on do look good….but in the big 3.

There is literally nothing on a basketball court that THJr does better than Butler.

shimmy?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kROuzoDIqxw

I can’t see the Knicks tanking too egregiously, so I think they’ll start Burke-Lee-Hardaway-Hezonja-Kanter. That’s arguably the perfect team if you want to disguise your tank. They’re all professional basketball players. They’ll put up decent box score numbers. And with Burke/Kanter guarding pick and rolls and Hardaway/Hezonja guarding the other team’s forwards, they’ll be one of the worst defensive 5-man units we’ve ever seen.

It also showcases Lee, Burke, Hezonja. If we’re lucky, we can dump Lee for an expiring and get decent picks back for Burke and Hezonja.

Then we can finish the year with Frank, Knox, Robinson, and all the other kids playing heavy minutes en route to a bottom 3 finish.

Throw in 6-8 weeks of a fully rehabbed but rusty Porzingis looking terrible before free agency, and that’s pretty much my perfect 2018-19 for the Knicks.

At age 25, THJ had a .067 WS/48 and a 0.9 VORP.
At age 25, Jimmy Butler had a .214 WS/48 and a 4.2 VORP.

Sorry but that’s about as far apart as you can get. No amount of teammates or coaching could bridge that gap. THJ is a lot closer to Ron Baker (0.0 WS/48 in 2016-17) than he is to Butler.

The stats don’t even consider how absurdly better Butler is at defense compared to THJ. How can a take be so incredibly wrong both on the eye test and the stats.

Optimism is one thing, straight up delusion is a different thing.

I also think that signing just Kyrie makes more sense than using assets to clear space to get Kyrie and Butler, but I believe it would take a package deal to get both of them. They wouldn’t be coming here because of the awesome basketball opportunity, ya know? Kyrie literally left a team that would have probably easily made the NBA Finals. Butler is pissed at one of the best young players in the NBA. These guys aren’t exactly roster management savants, ya know? They want to play together in New York just like Melo and STAT back in the day because they’re cocky enough to think that the two of them plus KP and scrubs would be enough to win and because playing in New York as a star player is really cool.

Everybody knows advanced or “lame” stats are for dummies. Pointzz is where it’s at, foolz

Questions for people who want to stretch Noah for cap space to sign some unknown future max guy in his thirties:

What are your thoughts on payday loans? Have you ever made an “investment” purchase on a high-interest credit card? What about buying a laptop or couch from Rent-A-Center?

So what are we doing about a power forward until KP returns? Is Noah Vonleh our only experienced 4? Isaiah Hicks? Can Mario Hezonja handle it? Who starts?

I personally would rather just cut Noah than stretch him but I’d rather stretch him than keep him. I want him nowhere near this team. I want Noah gone almost as much as I wanted Melo gone. Our management seems to feel the same way and I think they feel that having him on the roster at the beginning of training camp to do nothing but sow discord is harmful.

Stretching him isn’t the best move but if he has to be gone by the start of the season then I can see the logic in stretching him. Not stretching him limits a lot of our choices next summer. So while stretching him is my second choice it’s not some disastrous decision.

I mean, it’s gotta be Knox as the starter and these guys playing minutes, there’s no one else even available to sign. I like the idea, let Knox attempt to play a similar position 4 as Tatum was so effective at, it might end up being his best position in the NBA anyway if he’s not quick enough to guard SFs. Besides, as I’ve said a million times, development needs to be more important than wins in every step of the way for this team, and developing Knox is one the highest priorities as of now. Give the kid complete freedom to do what he can and adjust as it goes, he should be playing 30 minutes a game right off the bat at least. I still have many doubts about him as a prospect but he’s with the Knicks and he needs to be treated as a major priority for the future.

If Fizdale makes players earn their slots, Robinson will have to beat out Kanter. I think that’s not as easy as it seems. I predict as starters:

PG Burke (beating out Ntilikina and Mudiay)
SG Hardaway (beating out Lee)
SF Knox (beating out Thomas)
PF Hezonja (beating out Vonleh)
C Kanter (beating out Robinson and Kornet)

If Vonleh and or Hezonja is really bad, maybe Kornet or Robinson will beat one of them out for backup or starting power forward

Here’s another thing. If Kyrie Irving and Jimmy Butler decide to come play together in New York, it won’t be because of whatever record the Knicks have this season. It will be because of KP being here and this being, well, you know, New York (plus those guys being cocky/confident – depends on how you look at it – enough to think that them plus KP plus a bunch of scrubs would be enough to be a good team, with opportunity to add more players later). So if that is the case (and that is the case), why are the Knicks even interested in winning at all this season? Shouldn’t this season be strictly about playing young guys who will be assets beyond this season? So why even sign someone like Hezonja, who will help you only this season?