Knicks Morning News (2018.08.13)

Since the end of the season, I have seen a lot of takes. Hot takes, good takes, bad takes, accurate takes with stats & facts, dreamy takes, and delusional takes lol. Without sounding too optimistic, I think there are a couple things that we overlook sometimes:
1. If THJ never gets injured early on, we would have had an entirely different season. The threat of what THJ can do, moderate as some feel it is, was enough to allow KP to dominate. Who knows? Maybe not having to carry the whole load once THJ went down would have led to KP not flaming out as quickly.
2. Frank should be the starting PG with Burke 2nd string. Why? In KP-Knox-THJ, we have 3 scorers who are versatile enough to threaten defenses. I’m not suggesting that’s a great core, just that it’s a good start. If we can defenders at the 1 and 5 to add to that in the starting lineup, then build quality depth- we may not even have to press for a “max player”. In steps MitchRob & Ntilikina. They have to develop. Moving Burke to the bench helps improve depth. And we have young pieces like Dotson, Trier, Hezonja, and Vonleh to look at for future spots at well. Of course this is contingent on KP getting healthy. Again, I’m not saying it’s great- but we may be slightly ahead of the rebuilding curve with what we have now- especially if MitchRob and Ntilikina develop. To begin the season, Kanter starts. But at some point I’d like to see MitchRob eat into his minutes. As far as Burke, he’s likely to start- he’s earned it. But I think his role will be the same and can be maximized whether he starts or not. With Fizdale as coach, the Knicks may be playoff bound faster than we expect. Not this season, but soon

The thing with Robinson is that other than the blocks, he seems to have little clue of how to play defense right now. A lot of it is basic fundamental stuff, which in theory should be easier to correct than if he was just too slow. But I think he’s a ways away from being the cure all for our problems on that end. In the short term, his dunking will be his most useful skill for us.

I think the reason some people perceive the Knicks to be good at the draft comes from the fact that we have been good at avoiding complete busts. There’s no “Hasheem Thabeet at 2” or “Ekpe Udoh at 6” kind of picks in recent memory. We probably have to go back to Michael Sweetney for the last time we drafted a non-NBA quality player. For the most part, we’ve drafted players who actually manage to carve out NBA careers.

So I think it’s fair to say the Knicks are good at identifying professional basketball players/avoiding busts in the draft. This is a fairly valuable skill, as their are a fair amount of busts every year. But it’s not the same as being good at the draft. I’d say we’re about average.

The thing with Robinson is that other than the blocks, he seems to have little clue of how to play defense right now. A lot of it is basic fundamental stuff, which in theory should be easier to correct than if he was just too slow. But I think he’s a ways away from being the cure all for our problems on that end. In the short term, his dunking will be his most useful skill for us.

Totally agree…. and that is why he should be getting his reps with the best coaching which I assume is on the Knick’s staff while impacting negative on the w/l record. 🙂

On the offensive side he he has skills… he catches the ball well and finishes with both hands as well as being a fast twitch athlete. He is clearly in the embryonic stage of his development and to expect net positive out comes is a bit of a stretch at this point…. repeat this mantra….. losses are good…..losses are good.

Who still would have been better than Jordan Hill!

Who still would have been better than Jordan Hill!

I don’t know. Jennings had a triple double in his debut game, and scored 55 points during his second week in the league. He did little else, but still managed to turn that into a long term deal before rapidly turning into a vet’s minimum caliber player. That is, quite literally, the worst kind of player to draft.

Milwaukee was smart and didn’t double down on him (Detroit trades Kris Middleton in the sign and trade, oops). But there is no way the Knicks and their PG starved fan base wouldn’t have gone gaga over him in his first two weeks and built statues of him on 34th street and given him the Allan Houston contract negotiation treatment.

(But, then again, they wouldn’t have traded him for Tracy McGrady either, so who knows how different things could have been…)

Antonio Davis? He’s good, but not worth that package. Maybe if they throw in Rik Smits in as well?

Wait, what year is this? I’m getting old.
🙂

@13 +1

#metoo

Your axe needs grinding, Z-man. The troll is pretty weak over the last couple of days. Pretty transparent.

how cool is it that melo ain’t even a story no more…

Z-Man is not a troll. Jowles is the guy who’s pretty nasty to everyone…

Both post interesting and informative stuff about basketball.

YEah but Z-Man isn’t really a dick about his opinions. You are.

You might win more people over if you were actually civil to people on this blog instead of acting like the smartest douchebag in the world. I actually agree with a lot of your points but tend to want to fight you bc you’re such a tool about it.

let it out guys.

I’m not responding to ad hominem attacks today. It’s my birthday week, so haters can suck my ass. Just the way it’s gonna be. And if you don’t like that, you can suck my ass, hater. ; )

The biggest issue for me is that Z-man is making claims in the face of evidence that’s, at best, inconclusive.

My claim: Porzingis has performed significantly worse than a top-10 pick’s expected two-year max VORP. Given his age, there’s a possibility that in the future he will surpass the expected VORP of a player drafted where he was, but this is speculative. Everyone else has been a scrub in terms of marginal value, except Fields, who had a flash in the pan rookie year and then also became pretty scrubbish. (The irony of Fields being the best performer relative to expected value, when Z-man has made a commentating career disparaging role players like Fields, Faried, DeJuan Blair and others.)

This argument, which I made, describes the current value of Porzingis on a basketball court but I readily admit that it is inconclusive because Porzingis’s career is ongoing. I admit this even though our 7’3″ Carmelo clone just suffered an ACL injury that will sideline him for 12 months! My point is that the Knicks have not demonstrated draft or asset superiority in a way that leads to positive knowledge.

His claims: VORP is dumb, it was a good pick because NBA consensus is that Porzingis is still valued more than most young players, or something like that.

Everything comes from the belief that the Knicks have been better at drafting, and he asks detractors to prove that his belief isn’t true. (Or, at best, he appeals to common sense, which is not persuasive.) He prioritizes that belief or common sense over VORP, which is not perfect, but (jesus christ how many times am I going to write this) better than unsubstantiated faith-based claims.

Think Melo may be motivated cause he has to prove himself again. If he looses ~ 30 pounds and gets himself in shape, he could have a lot more in the tank. Hard to be viewed as a legend when you let the entire league shit on you during last 4-5 years or so… Beating GS and getting a chip solidifies his career.

I thought every summer Melo has been posting Hoodie Melo and other such workout warrior videos or photos on his social media. So I’m not sure there is a workout or PED that can help him at this stage.

@26

Melo is cooked. He is far from a productive player anymore playing starter minutes (>30 minutes). Even if he is willing to play a bench role, which he’s stated countless times that he would not, I highly doubt his game could even mold into that role. He just does not have enough league average skills on offense at this point in his career to justify playing him in spite of his passive at best defense anymore.

Disclaimer: I’m unworthy because I just watch basketball and rely on the eye test. I get my stats based reality here and I learn…

But what I hear Z-Man saying is that the act of drafting players has not been the Knicks problem. Everybody hits and misses in the draft. The problem for our beloved team has been valuing players we have and making a mess of the team building process. He thinks (I think), and I agree, that Kevin Knox is OK given that we were picking 9th.

Again, I read the thread from two days ago and then went surfing…

Take what I say with the proverbial grain of salt…

@32

If the money is equal, I’d much rather have Ryan Anderson. He has a better career percentage from 3pt and can fit in the stretch 4 role off the bench much better than Carmelo. Also, if you want to continue with the VORP argument, Anderson posted a 1.0 while Carmelo tallied -1.1

Picking up from yesterday….

@9

We already see it though, a PF age 21 he already has an acl. ONE MORE AND THATS ALL SHE WROTE.

Crazy comparison but KD on gsw. He has had some issues with his foot an mcl but never an acl.( gs is so well suited to absorb any major injury they wouldn’t be crippled as a franchise. We are in the opposite position, all our eggs are in one basket.)
Considering Kd career usage rate and career minutes, KPs injury is a real concern and some of that has to be due to his height. How many 7’3 pf can you name? Not many

Sorry Mase, “1” does not make for good statistical information. Anyone at any age can tear an ACL. A 15 year old kid that played baseball on a Little League team I coached had an ACL tear while running the bases. He was around 5’6″ at the time.
How many 7’3″ PEOPLE can you name?
I’ll just say that 7’2″ Kareem Abdul-Jabbar played 29 years and his “low” number for games played was 62 in 77-78. And he didn’t take 3-point shots. Wilt Chamberlin 7’1″ played 15 years and had one severe knee injury in 69-70 in the beginning of the season. He returned for the last 3 regular season games and played in the playoffs. Both Kareem and Wilt played during a much more physically demanding era.

Again, I would love to see medical statistics about tall NBA players and injuries. I just don’t think it’s smart for us to come up with unfounded medical predictions.

What’s funny is that we actually agree on most things. I think that we even agree on the drafting issue, and that the differences are mainly semantics-based.

Yeah that’s kinda what I picked up on while reading the exchange, too.

You can make a good case, and Jowles did, that the Knicks are not an excellent drafting team. But Z-Man’s overall point, i.e. that drafting has been one of the things we’ve done relatively well compared to the rest of our operations and isn’t the reason we’ve had a shit 21st century, is probably widely agreed upon.

I’m not responding to ad hominem attacks today. It’s my birthday week, so haters can suck my ass. Just the way it’s gonna be. And if you don’t like that, you can suck my ass, hater. ; )

Happy Birthday, enjoy your favorite bleach cocktail on me! Or a hefty dose of Lagavulin 16 (fyi my wife actually despises Scotch and might prefer the bleach.)

The biggest issue for me is that Z-man is making claims in the face of evidence that’s, at best, inconclusive.

Here’s where semantics become important. My claim is that the Knicks made fine draft day decisions (other than trading up or down) irrespective of how the players actually turned out. For example, Cleanthony Early was projected to be a late first round pick and was a fine pick (consistent with what most GMs would have picked) in spite of not developing. That’s different than saying that Cleanthony was a good pick because he became a good player. Others here seem to get what I’m saying and agree with it, why is it so hard for you?

Jerian Grant and Willy Hernangomez should count as hits as well, since we essentially drafted them.

“essentially” is a good word. Wily was technically drafted by Philadelphia.
They received a 2020 2nd round draft pick and a 2021 2nd round draft pick for him.
We traded him for to Charlotte for a 2020 2nd round draft pick and a 2021 2nd round draft pick.

Essentially a wash for us and a pick-up for the 76’ers.

https://twitter.com/KnickFilmSchool/status/1029022922244075520

How long before reality hits and he starts eating vaseline…

FWIW, I count players drafted and acquired on the same night as in the “drafted” ledger. In effect, the Knicks “drafted” Grant and Willy.

BTW, Jowles, this is my birthday week, too. So, happy birthday to both of us!

I love looking at old drafts. Remember the year we took Channing Frye, got the pick that was Nate, and then took David Lee 30th? Then in the 2nd round, at 54, we took Dijon Thompson, who is my favorite player named after a mustard. I thought we did great, until I saw Lou Williams went 45 and Gortat 57

1. Porzingis was not a very good pick because stats models suggest he’s been mediocre so far.

2. Porzingis was a good pick because Porzingis is still valued more by the NBA than most other young players (implied here is that he;s not very good but NBA teams are dumb).

There is a 3rd option.

The NBA consensus is correct because the stats models are not capturing his value properly.

I do agree that the stat models we use can’t completely capture players’ values, but how do they struggle with Porzingis?

Bit of buzz floating around on twitter that the FO is trying to move Lee before camp but the offers haven’t been great.

I haven’t seen any alleged offers, but it sounds like teams are asking for picks back to take on Lee’s contract. Would have thought he would be more valuable to a team than just as a cap space rental, but I think we have all potentially at some point overestimated what we could get for Lee.

R2 on RAPM, whatever the f that is > R2 on ACTUALLY WINNING BASKETBALL GAMES. Duh.

I wonder if RuRu has made it over to the Rocketblogger yet? Been a whirlwind 12 months for him going from KB to the OKC blog and then to Houston. I don’t think people appreciate the toll that takes moving around like that, but it’s just the nature of the business man.

ruruland called, he wants his argument about 2011-12 Carmelo Anthony back

1. I hope you aren’t arguing that PFs playing on the perimeter don’t get fewer rebounds than they would in they played in a more traditional role. You would be wrong on that.

2. If you are arguing they get fewer rebounds but the extra spacing from being an outside threat does not impact the offense positively enough to offset the loss of rebounding, that’s at reasonable position. However, you are then arguing that every team in the NBA has been foolish for moving in that direction and is compounding the foolishness by now asking Cs to play the same way.

I’m not buying it.

It’s hard to measure the value of anything in basketball properly (quite easy to pretend you can though) but it’s obvious that when KP has to guard some small sharp shooting PF on the perimeter, it’s having a positive impact on the other team’s offense given that KP won’t be in the paint swatting away shots by their slashers, cutters, and drivers. He’s also getting fewer rebounds. Same when he’s dragging some big outside.

The same phenomenon makes SGs look weak on many boxscore models.

SGs tend to be small, play on the perimeter, and don’t get to handle the ball as often as PGs. So it’s kind of tough to accumulate a lot of positive boxscore stats. What they do tend to well is shoot and space the floor. That’s why despite advanced stats models saying most of them aren’t very good, coaches keep playing them. Their value accrues to their teammates boxscores in the same way a great pass adds to the efficiency of the player receiving it. The thing is, we have assists in the boxscore to measure passing value. We don’t have spacing and defense in the boxscore to measure just how good Klay Thompson is.

The thing that makes me call bs on every one of those “basketball is complex and advanced stats are always flawed!” arguments is that somehow all the complexities advanced stats can’t account for are always favorable to the Knicks player du jour on the conversation (unless he’s called Tyson Chandler or Willy Hernangomez, then it’s always against them).

What about the complex idea that KP being a poor rebounder puts extra strain on his teammates to go for these rebounds, making the game harder for them? How about KP’s inability to shoot at an above-average rate makes his guards look worse because they get less assists from his bricks? How about KP’s lack of an inside game forcing his fellow big men to bang inside with opposing bigs on the offensive paint all game long makes them more tired and less effective overall? How about maybe, just maybe, his production is actually subpar and he needs to improve in a lot of areas to actually deserve the contract he’ll eventually get?

And yes, there are examples of SGs that had great boxscore stats (like Jordan, Wade, Bryant). Those guys generally play a different role. They handle the ball way more often and are able to score and accumulate assists too. They are generally teamed with non traditional PGs who play off of them instead of being the dominant playmaker.

So in terms of the Knicks, if Ntilikina had a reliable three point shot, would pairing him with, say, THJ, give us this sort of combination?