The 2011 Prospectus Is Out

It must be getting closer to opening day, because the new version of the Basketball Prospectus was released! Of course I don’t want to give away too much, but I’ll reveal a few spoilers:

  • They predict the New York offense to be good this year. (How good? Well you’ll have to buy it to know!)
  • I love the analysis of Gallo. Good to know the unbiased opinion of him. (Is it good or bad?)
  • They see this year as a breakout season for one of the Knick younger players. (Which one?)
  • Most of the New York chapter is about the long term strategy for the team, even as so far to name the other players in the summer of 2011. (Which teams can vie for the next big All Star? Oh the curiosity must be getting to you!)
  • If that isn’t enough to get you to pony up the $9.98, consider that yours truly wrote the “From the Blogosphere” for the Knicks section. Oh that and they cover every team, every player, with stats galore, fantasy advice, and SCHOENE projections. But mostly because I contributed a 150 or so words.

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    Mike Kurylo

    Mike Kurylo is the founder and editor of KnickerBlogger.net. His book on the 2012 Knicks, "We’ll Always Have Linsanity," is on sale now. Follow him on twitter (@KnickerBlogger).

    52 thoughts to “The 2011 Prospectus Is Out”

    1. That’s great … didja really imagine when you started this 5-6 years ago that in 2010 you would be interviewing players and contributing to something like BP?

    2. Nick C. – no. I thought I’d be in the Knicks front office by now, deciding how much to pay Sweetney coming off his 5th straight All Star season.

      All kidding aside, it’s fun stuff.

    3. Sounds like a great read. I think I’ll purchase one. Maybe this year I can start to sound like I know what I’m talking about.

    4. As an advanced stat neophyte (as Clyde would say) I must say that I found this about 50% digestible (in a quick read format). Some of the content and formulas definitely get a little thick for those of us whose last calculus class was 19 years ago. The attention to detail and the rationales were all very well done and appropriate. Not sure how they get their +5 to -5 projections and the WARP stuff is deep. You can see a few flaws here and there in some of the reasoning (i.e. Tony Douglas Defense rating). All in all a good read if you have time on your hands and worth the ten bucks.

    5. Thanks, Mike, good work.

      Here’s a provocative read by Osborne at P&T:

      http://www.postingandtoasting.com/2010/10/5/1732452/danilo-gallinari-is-not-a-shooting-guard#storyjump

      Not that Gallo is ever going to be a full-time 2, but this probably overstates the case against using him there for more than spot minutes. He essentially says that statistically speaking, Amar’e is as good of a choice for the 2 as Gallo. What he neglects to say is that Amar’e is a way better 4 than Gallo, and the 2 is a position where we have more depth than talent, so playing Gallo at the 2 in reasonably small doses is a way to keep him and certain guys (Moz, AR) on the court together. It would be better to ask whether he is better than WC or BW at the 2 in a big lineup.

    6. Watched some of Heat debut. Wade tweaked his hammy within 3 minutes and was done for the night. They looked pretty good without him and dominated as one would expect. Things that stood out:

      Mike Miller looked really good.

      Austin Daye was impressive and silky smooth from outside.

      Dexter Pittman (who I liked at draft time) looked pretty bad, lumbered around, doesn’t look like he close an NBA player yet.

    7. latke:I wonder if brothers have ever played on a team together.Brent and Jon Barry are the only pro sports brothers I can think of.  

      Bernard and Albert may have both played together, either on the Bullets or the Nets.

      Willie and Shandon Anderson both played for the Knicks… but not at the same time.

      And Gerald never could woo Dominique to NY :(

    8. latke: I wonder if brothers have ever played on a team together. Brent and Jon Barry are the only pro sports brothers I can think of.  

      In terms of American pro sports in general… Robbie and Sandy Alomar come to mind as brothers who played together, as well as Cal and Billy Ripken, Vladamir and Wilton Guerrero, Shawn and Stacy Andrews, Carson and Jordan Palmer, and Ty and Koy Detmer. More than one Molina must have been on the Angels together. Ken Griffey Jr. and Sr. played together, though they are not brothers.
      Dominique and Gerald Wilkins actually did both play for Orlando in 98-99.

      Here’s a 3 year old list of NBA brothers, don’t know which, if any, of them played together: http://answers.yahoo.com/question/index?qid=20080327094712AA0mTPV

    9. anyone know of a streaming link to the Wolves/Knicks game starting now in Paris? Would love to get a peek at that…

    10. Pre-season game thread anybody??? :)
      It’s on NBA TV, gonna watch some of it over lunch.

    11. I’m here for sure tc. Boss is away.
      Looking forward to:
      Gallo vs. SuperCoolBeas
      Mosgov vs. the Dark One
      Amar’e breaking Love
      Rubio talk…

    12. Pekovic sounds like he’s doing great for the Wolves. Very concerned about Felton already.

    13. We’re getting killed on the boards. Pelovic looks good. Amare is struggling all they run for him is top of the key Iso’s. Felton can’t get him the ball off picks so far.

    14. I like Randolph, but, man, for every time he makes you say “ooh” there’s another time when he makes you cringe. I don’t think he’s ready to shoot jumpers off the dribble further than 3 feet from the basket yet. His catch and shoot has

      Hopefully D’Antoni won’t pull players who have red hot starts like Ill-Will did during the regular season.

    15. I don’t understand why Dantoni doesn’t mold Randolph into a Camby type player.

      His jumping and blocking ability is off the charts. If he was told to focus more on board and blocks and less on dribbling and shooting from the outside he can avg 12+ boards with 2-3 blocks a game. He would be a much better player and We would 100% be a much better team with those kind of contributions.

      In that role , with his hustle he can surly avg 9-11 pts on put back and cheap buckets.

      Our coaching staff needs to recognize the needs of the team along with the strengths of the player. I feel also if you give him the starting nod within this role, his confidence would skyrocket.

    16. Randolph, Gallo, Felton and Mozgov have all looked pretty bad. On offense we’re taking bad shots and on defense we’re repeatedly failing to get rebounds and letting the Minnesota bigs get into position again and again.

      This game has not been very encouraging.

    17. It’s true – we held Love and Beasley down pretty well on defense. Our bench again lost our lead. Gallo’s gonna have to do a lot of dirty board work for us this year. Turiaf and Amare isn’t enough, and who knows what Randolph and Timo will do on the boards? Love’s already got 11 boards and that’s inexcusable…

    18. Felton does look terrible. Everything in his game is all herky-jerky. He doesn’t have the great body control that you need if you’re going to be a top NBA point guard.

      This Mason guy is putting up some serious bricks.

    19. With Mason, Walker and Douglas in, D’Antoni’s lookin’ the three-bomb his way back into this….

    20. Mason has looked pretty bad today. I think I would rather have Walker and/or Fields take his minutes. Chandler looks like a lock to start at SG since he isnt exactly being pushed right now with Buke hurt.

    21. I think the Knicks have blocked more shots in these 2 pre-season games than they have the last 2 years combined lol.

      Now if only they stopped fouling and covered the 3pt line…

    22. @25 – Randolph could be a poor man’s Durant rather than a Camby clone and I think the Knicks want to explore that possibility for the long-term.

      I really think the Knicks will be a their best when Gallo, AR, and STAT are in the game at the same time. AR can alternate between SF, PF, C; Gallo SF, PF; and STAT PF, C.

    23. All I know is that Randolph should not have twice as many 3 point attempts as rebounds…

    24. I guess we just have to figure that Amar’e won’t have many 11 point games during the regular season.

    25. The referendum on MDA has begun IMO. Somehow his “system” can either be the most beautiful ball you ever watched (see: Sun, Phoenix) or just the most undisciplined street ball you ever watched (see Knicks, New York).

      In all seriousness I actually think that the biggest question mark right now is the coach. And I have been a backer. I am not saying because of 1 bad preseason game that we should sound alarms, but I am concerned that without the perfect personnel it doesn’t work.

    26. I’m not sure what you can take from this. Everyone played roughly 20 minutes except 3 deep bench guys and Mosgov (only b/c he fouled out.)
      Plus a lot of shots just didn’t fall.
      But I’m concerned about Felton running the offense. If he can do that, more or less everything else will fall into place. If not, we will not make the playoffs.

    27. @44 – It’s pre-season. Randolph will not be left to anchor the 2nd unit for extensive minutes in the regular season. D’Antoni is getting a look at different lineups, many of which will be scrapped before the games count. And Stoudemire will get more than 20 mins. per game and get crunch time minutes over Andy Rautins.

      The Knicks were the 17th most efficient offensive in the league last year w/ virtually no talent. I think we can expect more “beautiful ball” this season than you’re suggesting.

    28. The game was ugly, but it was a preseason game. Inconsistency comes with the territory of having so many young players. It seems to me the knicks are in a similar situation to last season. They are short one knock down shooter (gallinari is their only one) and one player who can create off the dribble (felton is neither the passer nor the penetrator we need – he’s a slightly more skilled, less active Tony Douglas). For the umpteenth time, allow me to point to Lou Williams, who has fallen out of favor on the Sixers and could be had for dirt. He can shoot and get into the paint, and Tony Douglas and Azubuike would probably get the deal done.

    29. Also, Fields is making a serious bid for a spot in the rotation. Right now I see Chandler at the 2 for big minutes so maybe Landry can grab some minutes behind Gallo since Walker seems to have lost his shot.

    30. A mess. When you grab 28 defensive boards and give up 18 offensive you’re not going win the game (even if the other team has 30 turnovers). It was great to see 8 blocks but at times the interior guys were overly aggressive- two guys challenging the shot and no one left to grab the boards so they’ll have to clean that up.
      Felton was horrible, Mozgov was awful in the first half- much better in the second but fouled out in 15 minutes and his needless fouls were one of the reasons the Timberwolves basically spent the whole game at the line.
      Randolph- it’s pretty simple- shot selection, shot selection, shot selection- get it right and he’s playing 30+ minutes a night and is a real game changer- keep hoisting long / forced jumpers and you have to wonder how much burn he’ll get (I think no matter what he’s still guaranteed 20-25).
      Roger Mason made a couple of nice plays on defense but if he can’t knock down the 3 I can’t see playing him. So until Azu gets back it’s going to be interesting to see who gets those back up minutes at the two with Fields, Walker, and Douglas all in the mix. I think Fields and Walker will be battling each other for minutes all year long.
      Rautins looked like he could actually get some minutes- really pesky on defense and while he’s not a natural point he does move the ball really well (something the team is really lacking). If he can stroke the 3 I can see him getting some minutes- especially if Felton struggles.

    31. My problem is less with the results than the strategy. Mediocre shooters, mediocre passers, mediocre rebounders combined with a strategy that is pass and shoot focused and paced not to get rebounds is worrying me. MDA keeps talking about wanting to play faster. I think at first you go a bit slower and more deliberately then as the chemistry and confidence comes you push the pace.

    32. @50 – I disagree. I think Mike has shown he can turn OK shooters, bad passers, and terrible rebounders into a mediocre offense in NY and good players into a great offense in Phoenix. I think the Knicks project to have a very good offense.

    33. The Prospectus has them moving up from 15th to 4th in offensive rating, so we’ll see. It seems like a lot is going to depend on Felton.

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