You Are Now Coach of the Magic…

With game 2 less than 24 hours away and with Orlando coming off a game 1 beating, I’m asking my faithful KnickerBlogger readers: “What steps would you take if you were in Stan Van Gundy’s shoes?”

It’s something I’ve been thinking about, I haven’t been able to come up with a definitive answer. Should the Magic go with Nelson, who is coming off an injury but tore up Los Angeles during the season? Should the team make a better effort to crash the defensive boards? Send out JJ Redick with boxing gloves, have him cover Susha Vujacic, and let the hilarity ensue for entertainment’s sake? Or was game 1 just a fluke and the Orlando is just likely to regress back to the mean?

What would you do as the coach of the Orlando Magic?

Cleveland Down 3 to 1

With the Cavaliers down 3 to 1 to the Orlando Magic, now seems like a good time to look at the numbers to see what’s going on.

ORL 1.0 107.0 89.9 119.0 60.9 14.5 17.8 15.4
CLE 1.0 106.0 93.6 113.2 53.4 8.5 19.0 13.6
ORL 2.0 95.0 87.2 108.9 54.9 13.8 14.6 23.9
CLE 2.0 96.0 93.2 103.0 48.7 15.0 18.2 27.3
CLE 3.0 89.0 96.3 92.4 40.4 15.6 20.4 33.3
ORL 3.0 99.0 90.5 109.4 47.6 14.4 15.4 61.9
CLE 4.0 114.0 108.7 104.8 48.3 12.9 13.0 34.5
ORL 4.0 116.0 99.0 117.1 60.6 15.1 8.3 23.8
ORL TOT 417.0 366.4 113.8 56.5 14.5 14.0 29.8
CLE TOT 405.0 392.1 103.3 47.9 13.0 17.5 27.0

The overwhelming factor in this series is the discrepancy in shooting percentage. The Magic have won the eFG battle in every game, and for those familiar with four factor analysis know that shooting is by far the important element. And just like in the Nuggets/Lakers game you have to be really good to overcome such a deficit. Cleveland’s only victory (game 2) coincided with the smallest difference in shooting (-6.2% eFG), and they were superior in rebounding and free throws.

The Magic’s eFG during the season was 52.0%, and they’re averaging a more robust 56.5% against Cleveland. Meanwhile they are holding the Cavs to 47.9%. In fact Cleveland has only bested their regular season average of 51.9% once (Game 1). So Orlando is getting it done on both ends of the floor. If Cleveland is looking for a scapegoat, they can point the finger at their backcourt. Mo Williams is shooting a paltry 36.6% (23-71, 6 3PM), while Delonte West’s eFG is a mediocre 48.9% (20-46, 5 3PM). LeBron James (55% eFG, 56-110, 9 3PM) will need more help from the pair if he’s going to dig his team out of a 3-1 hole.

Second Round Thoughts

Looks like we might have two series to watch in the second round. Boston tied the series at 1-1 yesterday on Rondo’s triple double. The undermanned Celtics weren’t thought as title competitors, but they managed to stave off a fiesty Chicago team, and are giving Orlando their money’s worth. On the other side of the coin, you have to wonder what’s going on with the Magic? They made a 41 win Philadelphia team look good giving them a 2-1 lead in the first round. In game two, Dwight Howard shot 5-13 from the field and 2-8 from the charity stripe. Everyone has a bad game in the NBA, but you’d think Howard would eat up the Garnett-less Celtics.

In the West, Houston and Los Angeles are locked in mortal combat. The Rockets upset the Lakers in game one by limiting Kobe to 32 points on 31 shots. In game two, the Lakers fought back literally. In the end of the third quarter Scola committed a hard foul on Odom, and few members of Los Angeles had some harsh words for Scola. (OK it was Luke Walton and Sasha Vujacic, probably the two least scary people in all of Los Angeles.) A few seconds later Scola would set a screen on Derek Fisher and get leveled. The replay clearly showed Fisher accelerating into him, like a WWE wrestler complete with the bloody head. Fisher was ejected, and I wouldn’t be surprised if the league held him out of game 3. Meanwhile Artest was ejected for gesturing at Kobe Bryant, and Von Wafer was sent to the locker room for arguing with his own coach. I still say he’s better than Roberson.

Oh and one last note: Stephon Marbury is shooting 30.2% eFG% and is -42 for the playoffs with only two games in the positive side of +/-.

First Round Thoughts

Just opening this up for people to talk about the first round. I haven’t seen a lot of games, but I did catch a few good ones. I saw the Celtics lose in overtime, the Lakers crush the Jazz, and a bit of the Nuggets/Hornets. Of the few games I saw, it was interesting how many ex-Knicks (and potential ex-Knicks) were involved on winning teams: Trevor Ariza, Joakim Noah, Tyrus Thomas, Nene. It’s hard not to be a little bitter about it, at least for another year…

As for the upsets, the East looks like a one man race at this point. The Celtics clearly aren’t the same without Garnett. Orlando lost to the Sixers? OK so that’s more likely to be a fluke than not, but it does raise questions at this point about the Magic. And if you thought the Heat were a Wade explosion from potentially beating the Cavs…

Who Will Win the Western Conference?

According to at least one gambling site, the Lakers are by far the favorite to win the West. But how far ahead of the rest of the field are they? Los Angeles was 11 games better than any other Western team. But the Lakers are only 55 win percentage points better than the Trailblazers, .739 to .684, when using expected win percentage based on run differential. That’s a bit closer than the 134 point difference when looking at actual win percentage. Additionally the Lakers are most likely going to face the Jazz, Blazers, and Spurs/Nuggets. Certainly that’s tougher than the Pistons, Hawks/Heat, and Magic/Celtics that will meet Cleveland in the East.

So what do you think, can any Western team derail the Lakers?


Seven Seconds or Mess: Webisode 18

I know it’s been a while, KB, but the 7SoM is back. If you’re curious about where I’ve been just read the first paragraph here.

I’ve missed the opportunity to break down the collapse of the team’s playoff hunt but the issues that caused it are the same issues I’ve tried to lay out on tape all season. So with the remaining schedule I’ll be pointing out some of the negative aspects of the Knicks’ key players.

First up is David Lee whose shortcomings on the defensive end have been on display in previous episodes. In episode 18, I show his unwillingness to rotate to players getting into the lane opting to stick with Dwight Howard instead. Well with Howard finishing with 29 points on 12-18 shooting and 14 rebounds (four offensive), Lee’s decision didn’t make a difference.

(Click HQ.)

Now this isn’t something that we don’t already know about Lee but the layups by Hedo Turkoglu and Courtney Lee were part of Orlando’s fourth quarter comeback and just reinforces the fact that the Knicks need a defensive presence inside. And on a night when the Magic shot an uncharacteristically poor 7-25 from three point territory, they were able to get into the paint and score with ease.

So how do you feel about Lee’s defense?