Quick Recap: Knicks 96, Hornets 95

I don’t care what Mr. NBA-Man says, that shot was good enough for me. This was a solid victory, especially considering the team had to travel from Canada to Carolina overnight for this second game of a back-to-back. It was nice to see Afflalo back and contributing, as well as Amundson getting some productive minutes. Melo cooking in the third quarter and Calderon not looking like a corpse were added bonuses. But let’s give it up to Porzingis! 13 points, including the last fraction of a second, game winning basket, to go along with 15 rebounds and 2 blocks. We’re only 9 games into the season, but that’s enough to convince me to invest my life saving in Kristaps bobble-heads. I’m sure to profit!

Maybe, after this game, Charlotte will finally admit to themselves that Lin and Lamb are significantly better basketball players than Walker and Hairston, and start them both. It’s kind of nice to see Linsanity make a comeback for another team, but why couldn’t the guy stay in the West? I have my suspicions that Charlotte is dumb enough to keep letting Kemba shoot them out of games, though.

This game, really shouldn’t have been as close as it was, but the Knicks were very sloppy. 16 turnovers, to Charlotte’s 5 and 24 fouls to Charlotte’s 9 were the only reason this wasn’t a comfortable win for the good guys. With Calderon contributing, Afflalo getting his game legs under him, and a bit more consistency from Melo, the playoffs are a realistic possibility. Even without playoffs, it’s still fun to watch young talent develop. So, to all of you, no need to get down or frustrated! Yes, the Knicks technically lost, but just call this game a win! Porzingis made the shot of the season, no matter what anyone else says!

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159 thoughts to “Quick Recap: Knicks 96, Hornets 95”

  1. Was able to watch the last bit of the 4th on my phone while on my lunch break. Not sure if it was expressed on the game thread, but I can’t help but feel if that pass from lance was better, KP’s shot would have got off in time. Can’t really comment on the game outside of looking at the box score, but good to see the starters putting up some alright numbers. Might have to watch the condensed game when I get home this evening.

  2. Looking at the shot chart (and these are estimations since the makes and misses sometimes block each other out), the Knicks were 12/23 in the paint extended, 26/41 from midrange, and 4/21 on 3s. They also only took 7 free throws. They were the anti-Rockets tonight.

    Agree with you, Kevin, about Lin and Lamb, and it’s not that either are that great; it’s that Kemba and Hairston are not good. Kemba especially is IMO overrated. Kemba is a poor man’s (prime) Ray Felton IMO. Can’t shoot. Shoots too much. Does take care of the ball and pass well though. Kemba is likes to shoot more than Ray did, and when he shoots, he does it with more style than Ray, so that makes for better highlights. Pair that with the college pedigree thing, and you have a recipe for an overrated dude.

  3. NOT COOL!

    Some of us could not watch the game live and turned to knickerblogger for a quick recap. The sarcasm was lost on me, until I went to ESPN.com to see KPs buzzer-beater (not).

  4. Couldn’t watch the game, though I was following it on my phone. 10-pt lead going into the 4th after dominating the 3rd, game shouldn’t have come down to the end. As exciting as it has been watching the young guys play tonight’s ending makes it feel as if the more things change the more they stay the same unfortunately. But the 3 road wins so far have been quality wins so that is something to hang our hats on for sure, would be nice if the rest of the schedule this month wasn’t so brutal.

  5. The bench helped to get the team into early foul trouble. Lin heated up vs them and kept it going when the starters got back in (although Calderon played him tough down the stretch).

    KREAM is our future cornerstone. But J Grant’s development will be very critical as well, because of ability to penetrate and pass. I feel he needs a steady J to break the starting lineup, and when he does, the fun will really begin.

  6. I believe Mike is adding in a qualifier, but if he doesn’t, I’ll toss one in so as to not confuse future folks with Kevin’s joke (I think the joke overall is good, just needs a slight bit at the end making it clear that the Knicks lost).

  7. 18-34, remember he’s overrated….
    Even if it didn’t count, that “game winning” trey was Clutch by KP

  8. Absolute heartbreaker them ruling that one out! Still promising that he stepped up and hit the big shot….just a millisecond too late!
    What happened to Lopez for the Zeller score?!

  9. What happened to Lopez for the Zeller score?!

    Bad play, to be sure, but his instincts weren’t crazy, exactly. He thought that the play was going to go to Lin, so he overplayed to keep Lin from getting the ball and he couldn’t recover in time to stop Zeller.

  10. Tough loss, to say the least,but there were several good things we can highlight:
    -KP started off 4-4 on fg’s, and stayed out of foul trouble and kept rebounding (15 more)
    -Melo with the 3rd quarter outburst, found his rhythm (end of game attempt notwithstanding)
    -Sweet Lou came off the bench to contribute, showing we have some good depth. You can see Fish’s strategy is to go deeper into the bench on back-to-back’s.

  11. And of course the bad things:
    -We are fouling too much, you can’t be in the bonus less than 3 min into the 4th quarter
    -ONLY 7 friggen’ foul shots…come on ref!!!
    -TURNOVERS have been a killer, and its a season-long trend. There was a stretch there late where I think Grant had consecutive turnovers (rookie mistakes I guess).
    -G&G were schooled by Lin/Lamb, hope its used as a learning experience going forward
    -DWill only 4 minutes, and I believe less than 12 min the night before. Not sure what to think of this, other than Fish is making him earn his minutes with good play ( I sense a short hook for him specifically, not sure why tho)

  12. I could be wrong, but I think Fisher took the usefulness out of Derrick Williams. D Will was on fire in the pre season as the 1st scoring option for the 2nd team. He was essentially “Bench Melo.” I noticed that as soon as I started hearing that Fisher wanted Derrick Williams to do more than just score the ball, D-Will’s stats started to plummet, and now the second unit is a lot less fearsome than it was 2 weeks ago. To me, Derrick Williams was a huge part of the Knicks’ ability to push the ball in transition and get fast break baskets. I don’t have a stat to prove any of this, but I do feel like when Fisher asked D Will to do more than just score he essentially asked him to think more (or too much) and took away Derrick’s natural feel for the game. D Will is a chucker and that’s not a bad thing when playing with Grant, Galloway, O’Quinn, and Thomas because they’re all low to mid usage guys. I just don’t see the same guy out there that I saw in preseason anymore, and I can’t help but think it has to do with what Fisher asked of him and can’t help but think he asked him for too much. If D Will was able to do what Fish is asking of him, he’d still be a Timberwolf and Love probably never leaves Minnesota.

  13. If D Will was able to do what Fish is asking of him, he’d still be a Timberwolf and Love probably never leaves Minnesota.

    True. That’s the reason he was available.

    Bad players are handled the way Fisher is handling him, though.

  14. @18 You may have a point, but I do think that DWill needs to be more than just a good transition player, as there will be games where we dont have many fast break opportunities. Other player are being asked to do more than 1 specific thing, so should he right?

  15. “Other player are being asked to do more than 1 specific thing, so should he right?”
    In general, yes but, if a guy is really good at one thing only, and he plays with guys who do all of the things that he can’t do, he can still be very valuable if he excels at the one thing. Case in point — Steve Novak. Four comments on last night’s finish —
    – Porzingis is clearly not intimidated by the big moment.
    – The Melo “play” was not much of a play at all, but the Porzingis play was well-designed and well executed.
    – How/why in the world did Zeller let him get so wide open?
    – I’m not saying anything that hasn’t been said elsewhere, but there really should have been .8 seconds on the clock and not .6.

  16. The loss had a bad taste but we were very lucky to be in the game in the final second also.

    Melo stepped on the 3p line in that game tying shot and Zeller missed two FTs in one of the dumbest fouls I ever saw.

    KP shot was sweet anyway!

  17. – The Melo “play” was not much of a play at all, but the Porzingis play was well-designed and well executed.

    Apparently, that wasn’t the designed play at all. Thomas went to Porzingis because he was open.

  18. @22 They did check the replay on that Melo 3pt shot, and there was no reversal on the call…so there’s that…

  19. In general, yes but, if a guy is really good at one thing only, and he plays with guys who do all of the things that he can’t do, he can still be very valuable if he excels at the one thing. Case in point — Steve Novak.

    Novak, like Derrick Williams, is (was? is he still in the NBA?) a fringe player exactly because he can’t do anything besides scoring under certain conditions. Bad players, the two of them.

    Coaches have handled Novak the way Fisher is handling Williams. They don’t contribute enough to make a difference.

  20. I was down on Derrick Williams for breaking the offense and not posting in the triangle until I watch Porzin6is play with the 2nd unit, he looked a lot like Williams on O. He stayed behind the 3pt line a rarely posted up. It seems like they want to give Grant room to work the PnR.

  21. All those buckets Steve Novak used to make didn’t count because he was a bad, bad player.

    Any player who is bad is like Steve Novak, because Steve Novak was bad. Since bad players are bad, they will be bad players, which is bad, and any GM who gets them is a bad GM. Having a bad GM is bad.

  22. On another note Nic Batum should be a 2016 target. I highly doubt Afflalo opts in but even if he does move Afflalo to back up 3 and play Nic at the 2.

  23. Apparently, that wasn’t the designed play at all. Thomas went to Porzingis because he was open.

    Imagine that.

  24. For the record, I love the post and wouldn’t change a thing. Somewhere in the circle of time there is an alternate universe in which that shot counted, and (like Kevin) I choose to live in it. If you guys want to take the red pills they’re pushing at ESPN.com, feel free, but don’t kill the vibe over here where we’re still celebrating KP’s game-winner.

  25. Apparently, that wasn’t the designed play at all. Thomas went to Porzingis because he was open.

    Imagine that.

    From what I read last night, the play was designed as a lob to Porzingis, but whatever the hornets were doing on defense made Kristaps take the 3 instead. And if it wasn’t for that meddling time keeper he would have gotten away with it !

  26. I could be wrong, but I think Fisher took the usefulness out of Derrick Williams. D Will was on fire in the pre season as the 1st scoring option for the 2nd team. He was essentially “Bench Melo.” I noticed that as soon as I started hearing that Fisher wanted Derrick Williams to do more than just score the ball, D-Will’s stats started to plummet, and now the second unit is a lot less fearsome than it was 2 weeks ago. To me, Derrick Williams was a huge part of the Knicks’ ability to push the ball in transition and get fast break baskets. I don’t have a stat to prove any of this, but I do feel like when Fisher asked D Will to do more than just score he essentially asked him to think more (or too much) and took away Derrick’s natural feel for the game. D Will is a chucker and that’s not a bad thing when playing with Grant, Galloway, O’Quinn, and Thomas because they’re all low to mid usage guys. I just don’t see the same guy out there that I saw in preseason anymore, and I can’t help but think it has to do with what Fisher asked of him and can’t help but think he asked him for too much. If D Will was able to do what Fish is asking of him, he’d still be a Timberwolf and Love probably never leaves Minnesota.

    Interesting theory. I’m of the opinion that D Will is just playing the way he was expected to play and that preseason / opening night was just a mirage.

    But it could be possible that is true AND Fisher has mishandled him by asking him to do things he can’t do. I guess the idea you’re getting at is that we should essentially let Williams be the front court version of Jamal Crawford, and not focus on what he can’t do.

    Even if we do that, though, his history indicates he will perform more like what we’re seeing now and less like the “Bench Melo” D Will of opening night.

  27. “but whatever the hornets were doing on defense made Kristaps take the 3 instead.”
    So, a 20 year-old rookie, in his 9th NBA game, saw that the designed play wasn’t going to work because the defense was clogging the lane, took the initiative, audibled at the line of scrimmage, and stepped back for an open 3? If true, that’s pretty impressive for a couple of reasons — first, that he was smart enough to see the problem and come up with a solution in a split second and, second, that he had the guts to do it (not to mention that he made the shot).

  28. I agree that Batum would look great in a Knicks uniform.

    I was also very encouraged by the improved shooting of our two neophytes.

    Tell me again why we didn’t sign Lin?

  29. I don’t know, it just seems like Derrick Williams doesn’t seem to have the same green light to score anymore. He still averages 23.1 points per 36, so his scoring is there in volume. It’s the .517 TS% so far which is actually lower than what he put up in the past two seasons that gives me pause. We had a player who was trending upwards in terms of scoring efficiency and that looked poised to take another step forward. Now he takes a step back on probably the best team he’s played for yet (not saying much, but still)? It’s a long season so maybe he does end up playing better basketball, but I think Fisher should just let him score the ball and let everyone else fill in around him. Or maybe it’s just that Lance Thomas is outplaying him thus far (which he is).

  30. Some thoughts about yesterday’s game.
    Melo was on fire and was the only reason the Knicks stayed in the game. But his last shot was butt-ugly.
    The L2 duo destroyed G2 duo. Grant could not keep Lin out of the paint. He had a bad game. Oddly, Calderon did a much better job on him.
    Zeller got the ball for the last play because he blew the 2 free throws. It was a redemption call. Note to the team, whenever there’s a player on the opposing team that needs redemption, blanket him. He’ll be prime option. Good coaches want to build up players morale and giving them the ball after they screwed up shows confidence in them.
    I did not like wasting the clock for that last 3 pt attempt by Anthony. I would rather they put the shot up quickly and try to play defense.
    KP was frigging awesome once again.
    Afflalo looked good. His shot was on. I couldn’t tell about his defense.
    I wanted to see more of DWilliams but as others have said, he needs to do two things: defend and pass.

  31. Hah it’s entertaining watch Lin torch the Knicks. How many times has he done it since he left NYC? He seemed to do it when he was on the Rockets coming back to MSG. 2 million a year for this guy, Knicks weren’t interested though. Dolan’s feelings got hurt when he left….

  32. Don’t know if anyone listened to Bill Simmon’s podcast yesterday, but he said the Knicks had an agreement on draft day to move down from 4 to 9 to draft Kaminsky, but one of the other teams backed out (it was a 4 team deal). That’s going to go down as a seriously close call.

  33. In all likelihood, it was just something that was discussed, it involved the Celtics, and it’s gone through the game of telephone until it got to Simmons, who is now acting like it was a sure thing until someone backed out when in reality it was just a proposal or a floated idea.

  34. @36 — saw a quote from KP that he saw them cut off the play down low and he moved high to the open space. Smart, instinctive basketball play. And he made the shot, which is a big bonus.

  35. There’s the reality that most NBA coaches don’t yet understand how valuable a one-dimensional player can be if they are superb at that one-dimension. But they aren’t playing Steve Novak, so they must be right. Despite all evidence to the contrary when he got decent playing time on the Knicks.

    How a player is used makes an enormous difference. Interaction effects – how players mesh their disparate skill sets – is a crucial component of play. But let’s dis him because coaches aren’t playing him. Yep.

  36. If we can trade Derrick Fisher for George Karl do we pull the trigger?

    That might not be the best metaphor….

  37. Oh, and there’s the reality that most NBA coaches don’t yet understand how valuable a one-dimensional player can be if they are superb at that one-dimension. But they aren’t playing Steve Novak, so they must be right.

    Yep. You have the “real” insight, vision, understanding that “most NBA coaches” lack. Novak is a great player – but NBA coaches are so dumb, they don’t see it.

    Popovic is such a stupid coach, Novak shot 58% on 3-pointers and he didn’t see it!

    You (and your buddies, of course!), however, can see it.

    Yeah!

  38. I see we’re up to midseason form on the annual coming-out-of-nowhere-poster with his childish/vindictive/childish style of posting.

    I used to find it entertaining, especially when Jowles went off the wall two years ago, but now it’s getting predictable and, yes, childish.

  39. Moving away from the vitriol and bickering to something completely off-topic but, nonetheless, of great import…Andrew Wiggins’ older brothers were coached at the Vaughan Secondary School by a man named Gus Gymnopolous. By Zeuss’ beard, this is the single greatest name for a basketball coach of all-time.

  40. Zeller got the ball for the last play because he blew the 2 free throws. It was a redemption call. Note to the team, whenever there’s a player on the opposing team that needs redemption, blanket him. He’ll be prime option. Good coaches want to build up players morale and giving them the ball after they screwed up shows confidence in them.

    So if we were playing the Cavs you would basically double JR Smith the whole game. Noted.

    PS I’m kidding ;)

  41. It’s the same poster. He’s been banned before and now he’s back under a new name. The same stupid insults, the same obsession with saying that Phil is a bad GM, the same stupid reasoning for his points (Landry Fields was bad, therefore Langston Galloway is bad. . .Steve Novak was bad, therefore Derrick Williams is bad).

  42. Guess I got banned too. Been a solid six years, Knickerblogger. Godspeed, y’all.

    (Oh, whoops. I hadn’t been able to post under my new nickname, “The Honorable cocktail joules,” but it’s fixed.)

    Hey, I’m back!

    “Melo has shot 18-34 from 3 in last 7 games. I hope this trend continues”

    He’s also 14-29 in his last 6 games, but I suppose that that trend, while “good,” doesn’t look as strong as 7 games, but looks better than 8 games, in which he’s 18-41.

    er, you’ve been on the site for years now. This is known as “arbitrary endpoints” and you’re using them to make a point that has no basis in reality. There is no “trend” except in your narrative.

  43. Afflalo wasn’t good on D, but neither was anyone else in our backcourt. For what it’s worth, over the last few seasons opposing SGs have fared better against him than opposing SFs (according to the 82games number). That’s a very crude way to judge things, granted, but I think we’re looking at another season of weak perimeter defense. As bad as it is, I think it’s still better than last seasons, so if you want to be positive you can say we’re trending in the right direction

  44. @57 how is that arbitrary? The team has played 9 games. In the last 7 he’s shot well from 3. I don’t understand.

    I don’t even know why I’m responding but I’m flabbergasted right now in my shitty cubicle. How is 7 games not reality?

    Arbitrary is putting 8 games into a graph of players from a full season

  45. “This is known as “arbitrary endpoints”
    No more arbitrary than your inserting Melo’s TS% after 8 games (a period during which he, by his own admission, shot terribly) into a graph and concluding — QED!! He’s inefficient.

  46. I shall resist the temptation to enter the name-calling fray…at least for a short while.

    Afflalo’s D wasn’t terrible but it wasn’t terrific. He was guarding PJ Hairston most of the game and PJ went 2-8. Afflalo outplayed him. But as was stated earlier, the Hornet starting back court is as bad as can be. I was stunned by how awful Kemba played. He’s a mess. The Hornets are actually bringing in their #1 back court with the second team and it’s a strategic move. They lull their opponents and blindside them with the Jeremy’s when they’re not suspecting.

    My love to Steve Novak. That 1-trick pony was a fun show while it lasted.

    @54 – If we were playing the Cavs I would double LeBron the entire 4th quarter. He would be wearing Lou Amundson like a coat. I don’t care how many fouls.

  47. I don’t even know why I’m responding but I’m flabbergasted right now in my shitty cubicle. How is 7 games not reality?

    Why didn’t you make it an 8-game sample?

    Last 8 games: 43.9% (18-41)
    Last 7 games: 52.9% (18-34)
    Last 6 games: 48.2% (14-29)

    Do you see how you deliberately chose the highest number to support your presumption about the “trend” that you believe to be true?

    We could just as easily say that his performance over the last 6 games has been worse than over the last 7, but that’s not what you chose. Why?

  48. Nice to see see KP bounce back from what was probably his worst game of the season against Toronto with one of his better games while playing a career high in minutes the next night. I’m also hoping that three that didn’t count might get him in rhythm from behind the arc- he has not looked confident shooting the three in the last four or five games.

  49. I really liked what Lopez was doing out there last night, for a guy who had zero points he had a very positive impact (the Zeller layup notwithstanding) It’s just refreshing to have a player who’s challenging every shot and going after every rebound. Overall, I’m very happy with his signing.

    (Oh, and if you haven’t seen the clip of him smashing the Lopez poster over the Raptors mascot’s head, check it out, it’s very funny.)

  50. Do you see how you deliberately chose the highest number to support your presumption about the “trend” that you believe to be true?

    Once again you are reading minds. I literally just looked at the last 7 games. I knew he didn’t shoot well at all in the 1st two games of the season.

    I said I hope the trend continues. I thought I was a benign post but I forgot you were here.

    Websters definition of trend:

    b :to veer in a new direction

    So when I said Trend I was saying I hope he keeps shooting well from three. I don’t know what else to say.

  51. @71 – I also loved the way that Lopez and KP are communicating. I love the two of them guarding the lane from both sides. They form an imposing wall against intruders. If we can only get a guard to keep other guards from waltzing in there, we’ll be good.

  52. Last 8 games: 43.9% (18-41)
    Last 7 games: 52.9% (18-34)
    Last 6 games: 48.2% (14-29)

    Your hate for Melo is so blinding that you think I sat and calculated 3 different sample sizes to find the best one? That’s sad. The funny thing is that they are all good lol

    I have to give it to you though, I’m not as smart as you professor.

  53. It’s comforting to know that the Knicks’ management is no longer dumb enough for a Robin Lopez and Porzingis for DeMarcus Cousins swap.

  54. Well, professor, I’m not going to try to figure out why er chose 7 games, but I am willing to hazard a wild guess as to why you cherry-picked Melo’s TS% from last year, when he was clearly hurt, to stick into your little graph, instead of the prior two years, when his TS% was considerably higher. It couldn’t possibly be to make him look as bad as possible, could it? Nah. Impossible. You’re slipping. You used to do a better job of hiding your bias.

  55. Don’t know if anyone listened to Bill Simmon’s podcast yesterday, but he said the Knicks had an agreement on draft day to move down from 4 to 9 to draft Kaminsky, but one of the other teams backed out (it was a 4 team deal). That’s going to go down as a seriously close call.

    Hmmm. Did he give any further details? If it ended up with Knicks getting Kaminsky + Boston’s 2016 Nets pick it, that could have worked out in Knicks favor long run. (I have to say, I am still shocked that Porzingis made it through the summer still a Knick…)

  56. It’s comforting to know that the Knicks’ management is no longer dumb enough for a Robin Lopez and Porzingis for DeMarcus Cousins swap.

    How do we know this? Is it because Phil Jackson tweeted a rejection of this:

    @BillSimmons: 3-way deal: Boogie to the Knicks, Porzingis to Boston, Lopez plus Boston’s unprotected Brooklyn 2016 pick to Sacramento… WHO SAYS NO?

  57. Melo looks to be slowly heading in the right direction. Melo in the past two games was hitting shots I’m used to seeing him make, but the man has clearly lost a step. PJ Hairston was in his jersey on a couple “Melo” moves that he would have used 2 years ago to score 40 points, and PJ Hairston isn’t exactly Shane Battier.

    More encouraging has been the play of Calderon and Lopez. I thought they could be our best starters this year, but if Calderon ends up at .130 WS/48 and Lopez at .160 for the season, they did what we needed them to.

  58. KP, KOQ and RLO combine to save about 11 points a game at the rim, which might be the best rim-protecting trio in the league.

    http://nyloncalculus.com/stats/rim-protection/

    Knicks also 10th in defending shots within 5 feet of the basket: http://stats.nba.com/league/team/#!/oppshooting/?sort=Less%20Than%205%20ft.%20FG%20PCT&dir=1

    Obviously these numbers aren’t adjusted for guard or wing play, as penetration against good defensive guards isn’t so clean.

  59. Phil Jackson won’t trade for DeMarcus Cousins. At least he wouldn’t trade Porzingis for him, I don’t think. The trade that worries me is Grant/Porzingis + Lopez for Derrick Rose. Derrick Rose is most certainly on his way out of Chicago and hasn’t been a good basketball player in 3 whole years. I’m afraid Dolan and Melo will put too much pressure on get him here, and Chicago’s GM will play hardball with us and threaten to trade him to Dallas if we don’t offer Porzingis. That scares me much more than a DeMarcus Cousins deal.

  60. Y’all are suffering from PTSD. Whatever his faults, Phil is not likely to execute a trade of youth for age and injury. Maybe he didn’t get enough for Chandler, but he did trade him for picks (and a less-injury prone player who naturally got injured). There’s no way we’re trading for Rose.

    Cousins, he might think hard about. He knows Fish is a great locker-room, players’ coach. He might think Fish can get through to him. But I can’t say I’m actually worried about that, either.

  61. Yeah. Porzingis can start putting bids down on Westchester mansions or one of those Central Park West luxury condos. He ain’t going nowhere.

  62. Yeah. Porzingis can start putting bids down on Westchester mansions or one of those Central Park West luxury condos. He ain’t going nowhere.

    I’m sure that’s what Jeremy Lin and Landry Fields thought too.

    I kid, I kid.

  63. Honestly, I’m not sure how you can place a value on a kid who at 20 his lone perceived long-term weakness is actually an enormous strength.

    KP’s RR at 20: 19.5

    Look at this list of guys (qualified for TRB/G) ages 19-21 in NBA history: http://bit.ly/1kQg9GJ

    KP is 13th!

  64. Look at this list of guys (qualified for TRB/G) ages 19-21 in NBA history: http://bit.ly/1kQg9GJ

    Let’s hope he’s more Drummond, Moses, Love, Dwight, Shaq, and less Dejuan Blair, Biyombo, Biedrins.

    Also, does it mean anything that, for a stat going back 60 years, 6 of the top 20 occurred in the past 3 years? I’m genuinely asking. I guess there weren’t many 19-21 y.o.’s until the ’90s so that could be a reason.

  65. The point about KP’s shooting bears repeating – he doesn’t look decisive taking those shots from behind the arc. You can see that he’s tentative whenever he puts the ball up, as if he’s wondering if he should do it or not. That’s why last night’s 3 at the buzzer was so refreshing. He just caught the ball and decisively threw it up because he didn’t have the time to think about the shot. He needs to develop that remorseless selfishness all the bigtime scorers have when they feel their shot is there. Melo, Kobe, Dirk, KD all have it. KP should have it too.

  66. It’s pretty clear that the Zinger isn’t achieving these early numbers through unsustainably hot shooting or anything like that. It’s the opposite: he is achieving these numbers while it’s obvious he still has a long way to go. That makes me think the only thing that can derail him from becoming a superstar is health. That can be a challenge with big men – even skinny big men like Durant.

    But in the meantime, I’m going to try to enjoy the ride.

  67. The KP comps are interesting, if obviously (all together now) “small sample size.” The other thing is until KG there had not been a HS player since the late 70s and blocks and steals began to be counted @ 1973. One name that jumps out is Joseph Nurkic with Denver. Is he all that?

  68. Kristalingus – stroking the rock for the game-ending climax.
    I jumped out of my chair, shouted involuntarily and woke up my daughter and wife in the adjacent rooms. Can’t ask for much more sublimated sport satisfaction than that.
    I only caught the last third of the game. It was good to see the starters play well. I’m curious to see if Afflalo will bring that group up to speed a bit. The second unit was due for a stinker. Seeing Lou do his best imitation of 2015 Lance Thomas was fun also.

  69. Yep. Sample size is small, probably too small to be valid. The league will adjust to KP and he’ll need to adjust to those adjustments. Still, for a fan base that is starved for quality basketball, this is fun. I’m waiting for the Wilt comparisons to start pouring in. Sadly, he cannot match Wilts greatest achievement – scoring 100 pts in a game against the Knicks :)

  70. There are certain things the league — its players — cannot simply adjust to; a 7-foot-3 guy with a freakish wingspan who can crash the glass from the 3-pt line isn’t really a thing you just figure out how to defend.

    He’s rebounding over guys. I mean, he’s fighting for position and almost never getting it.

    All of the opportunities for improvement lie with KP.

  71. Enough of Bill Simmons and his bullshit. We’re not trading KP and we almost certainly weren’t interested in trading for Kaminsky.

  72. There are certain things the league — its players — cannot simply adjust to; a 7-foot-3 guy with a freakish wingspan who can crash the glass from the 3-pt line isn’t really a thing you just figure out how to defend.

    This. Its the reason why a growing number of greats from Kidd to Magic to Duncan to Kobe are praising the kid. They understand the value of length in this league, especially when it is supported by exceptional skill and technique. He’s a mismatch waiting to happen. And as a poster already said, he’s doing this without shooting the ball exceptionally well at all.

  73. Phil Jackson won’t trade for DeMarcus Cousins. At least he wouldn’t trade Porzingis for him, I don’t think. The trade that worries me is Grant/Porzingis + Lopez for Derrick Rose. Derrick Rose is most certainly on his way out of Chicago and hasn’t been a good basketball player in 3 whole years. I’m afraid Dolan and Melo will put too much pressure on get him here, and Chicago’s GM will play hardball with us and threaten to trade him to Dallas if we don’t offer Porzingis. That scares me much more than a DeMarcus Cousins deal.

    Sleep easy. We’re not trading Porzingis for Derrick Rose. Phil isn’t stupid and Melo’s agents don’t run this place anymore.

  74. Enough of Bill Simmons and his bullshit. We’re not trading KP and we almost certainly weren’t interested in trading for Kaminsky.

    There was plenty of buzz back around the time of the draft that the Knicks were interested in doing just that at the time (trading back to get Kaminsky and an asset). So Simmons saying it now is not something completely out of nowhere, ya know? So while I’d hope they weren’t actually going to do that (as that would have been a bad idea), it’s pretty believable.

  75. So, is there a decent or better penetrating PG that might be available via trade? The Knicks really need to get better playmaking at PG..someone who can get into the paint. I don’t see Calderon (obviously) or Galloway (he seems more to me as a solid Vinny Johnson type 3rd guard) as that guy. Grant has a long way to go, though he may someday become that guy.

    Or a PG who is a great defender that can keep the opposition out of the paint?

  76. I don’t think they should be making any trades at this point, at least not outside of their current roster (i.e. no trading first round draft picks), and no one on their current roster that they’d want to trade is going to get that type of player.

  77. Kristaps is probably hesitant to pull the trigger from downtown because he is not comfortable shooting NBA 3’s after less than 10 games. If he can play defense and rebound somewhere around the level he has so far then any offense is gravy this season. I’ll be thrilled

  78. I don’t think they should be making any trades at this point, at least not outside of their current roster (i.e. no trading first round draft picks), and no one on their current roster that they’d want to trade is going to get that type of player.

    Yeah, the best we’re likely to do at this stage is to trade Seraphin or Calderon at the deadline to a team that desperately needs an extra big or PG, respectively, and will give us a second rounder or two for our troubles. And that assumes they both start playing much better.

    Or maybe if Lance sustains this unexpected level of production, he becomes a movable asset?

    This team’s not winning a title this year, and could well finish outside the playoffs. Our goals (beyond trying to win games) should be to develop the young talent we have, collect any other assets we can get cheaply, and then plug holes via free agency (or trade) in the offseason.

  79. If we are talking deals fro Rose I would happily offer a bag of chips for him. Maybe a can of Coke as well if they play hard ball.

  80. I am very excited for Ruru to adopt KP and start singing his praises and dishing analysis. That is a development I can definitely get behind.

    But I don’t care what anyone says, KP is definitely getting shipped to Sactown for Boogie.

    I think when Demarcus was born, all 16 pounds of him, the doctor wrote New York Knicks on his birth certificate. It’s a fait accompli. The only person more certain to end up a Knick is Nick Young.

  81. There was plenty of buzz back around the time of the draft that the Knicks were interested in doing just that at the time (trading back to get Kaminsky and an asset).

    Yep, and I also recall there was not a great deal of enthusiasm for taking KP on here, either. The reigning consensus was that this was a 3-player draft; that the Knicks had been screwed when the ping pong balls gave them the fourth overall pick; and that they may as well try and trade down because they were likely to get as good a player at 9 as at 4.

    I’d really like to believe that Jax was smarter than that and had KP pegged from the start. But it’s not implausible to think that he viewed the draft in the same way most of us here did and had been thwarted in his attempts to trade down. This could easily be one of those instances in which draft day success was more contingent on luck than foresight, i.e. Seattle falling to second in the “Greg Oden draft” and having to “settle” for Durant.

  82. But I don’t care what anyone says, KP is definitely getting shipped to Sactown for Boogie.

    Sounds crazy right now, but if the kid does not emerge as an instant star, it becomes a very real and frightening possibility. That’s how perversely inept Dolan can be.

    The excuse will be that ‘we have a duty to go all out to win with Melo still in his prime’.

    Sad part is a majority of fans will find ‘logic’ in that plan.

  83. I’d really like to believe that Jax was smarter than that and had KP pegged from the start. But it’s not implausible to think that he viewed the draft in the same way most of us here did and had been thwarted in his attempts to trade down.

    Or maybe Phil just took the player he thought was best at the 4th draft position.

    It’s important, though, to mention that it’s way too early to determine that Porzingis is or is not a steal versus all other players selected in the draft. He has looked relatively great most of the time, but other players may or may not develop further. He might be showing us 95% of what he will be (he has played professional ball for a while, compared to his american draft counterparts). Maybe he becomes a a bona fide star, a la Nowitzki or better. Maybe he doesn’t.

    It’s too early to be passing judgment one way or the other.

  84. Or maybe Phil just took the player he thought was best at the 4th draft position.

    It’s important, though, to mention that it’s way too early to determine that Porzingis is or is not a steal versus all other players selected in the draft. He has looked relatively great most of the time, but other players may or may not develop further. He might be showing us 95% of what he will be (he has played professional ball for a while, compared to his american draft counterparts). Maybe he becomes a a bona fide star, a la Nowitzki or better. Maybe he doesn’t.

    It’s too early to be passing judgment one way or the other.

    Good post. Be this way always.

  85. Yep, and I also recall there was not a great deal of enthusiasm for taking KP on here, either. The reigning consensus was that this was a 3-player draft; that the Knicks had been screwed when the ping pong balls gave them the fourth overall pick; and that they may as well try and trade down because they were likely to get as good a player at 9 as at 4.

    It really was a great draft. But I don’t think anyone was ever a fan of trading down to get Kaminsky, in particular (to wit, the whole “you can’t go wrong #4-9” didn’t include Kaminsky as being part of that nine, ya know?).

    This could easily be one of those instances in which draft day success was more contingent on luck than foresight, i.e. Seattle falling to second in the “Greg Oden draft” and having to “settle” for Durant.

    That was never the Greg Oden draft. It was always Oden/Durant. There was much debate over who Portland should have taken #1. Who got the top two picks were a big deal that year because of it (I remember hoping to heck that the Knicks’ pick that the Bulls owned that year due to a swap would not end up as one of the top two picks).

    But yes, that does not distract from your larger point, that luck plays a role plenty of times in drafts, which is absolutely true. Like Drummond falling to Detroit or the Greek Freak falling way down (in a shitty draft!!!!) to Milwaukee.

  86. People in the NBA think Boogie is a superstar, instead of realizing that he’s an enormously talented guy who for some reason consistently underperformed. They see the guy who worked over Andre Drummond,and ignore the guy who was 5-20 the night before. You don’t trade a dominant big man on a team friendly contract for a 20 year old. Maybe you’d do so for aa promisng 20 year old and a bunch of other stuff-but fortunately we don’t have any other stuff!

  87. It really was a great draft. But I don’t think anyone was ever a fan of trading down to get Kaminsky, in particular (to wit, the whole “you can’t go wrong #4-9? didn’t include Kaminsky as being part of that nine, ya know?).

    It’s true that no one here was clamoring for Kaminsky, per se. But it is also true that, pre-draft, the majority of KBers expressed a preference for trading down as opposed to standing pat and selecting KP (or anyone else) at 4. KP, in particular, did not have many supporters on here – or elsewhere in Knicks Knation (as evinced by his greeting on draft night)

    That was never the Greg Oden draft. It was always Oden/Durant. There was much debate over who Portland should have taken #1.

    I think the “debate” was more of the fake, media generated variety, a la Luck v. RG3 in the NFL a few years ago. I recall seeing a poll taken right after that Oden/Durant draft of NBA GMs who unanimously stated that they would have taken the “Once in a generation” big that Oden was hyped to be at the time. I’ve little doubt that Presti would have done the same had Seattle been awarded the #1 pick.

  88. But yes, that does not distract from your larger point, that luck plays a role plenty of times in drafts, which is absolutely true. Like Drummond falling to Detroit or the Greek Freak falling way down (in a shitty draft!!!!) to Milwaukee.

    And the weird thing about the Drummond draft? No one looking at his stats liked him as a prospect. Stat-minded Pistons fans were hammering Dumars for the pick. So not only was he lucky to fall, he was lucky to turn into one of the best players in the league over the last four seasons!

    https://pistonsbythenumbers.wordpress.com/2012/06/28/for-andre-drummond-and-the-pistons-the-numbers-have-to-lie/

    http://www.boxscoregeeks.com/players/1264-andre-drummond

    The numbers lied.

  89. I think it’s tough to doubt the Oden pick in retrospect. Just assume the injury? He was really good before getting hurt.

    I can’t even remember what I thought of KP on draft day but he is officially my favorite thing about being a Knicks fan in 15 years.

  90. Um, why are people acting like its a forgone conclusion that Sacramento will trade Cousins anyway?

  91. Um, why are people acting like its a forgone conclusion that Sacramento will trade Cousins anyway?

    I certainly wouldn’t say foregone conclusion, but situations like the one Cousins is in have been relatively common in the NBA for decades and they typically end up with the player being traded.

  92. Why isn’t Saunders starting? Wheres Atkins? Why
    isn’t Trice getting more looks? What’s wrong with
    our coach?
    Now I feel like I’m watching a genuine Knicks
    game!

  93. I certainly wouldn’t say foregone conclusion, but situations like the one Cousins is in have been relatively common in the NBA for decades and they typically end up with the player being traded.

    I mean, its not like this hasn’t happened before and management sided with Cousins. He got Westphaul fired for crying out loud.

  94. Re: not many people here in favor of drafting Porzingis — a few hours before the draft I posted here that I was going to the Barclays Center that night wearing a “Zinger or Bust” t-shirt. I did go to the draft (my nephew is in that video of the kid crying) but I didn’t wear the t-shirt. So, it appears that I may have gotten this one right — which doesn’t make up for all of my posts in favor of the Bargnani trade, but still…

  95. Lol

    Just checked the d-league site and they have a ranking for call-up prospects.

    Our beloved Ronnie Brewer is the 9th.

    That’s sad…

  96. Given how inept Sacto is they’ll probably do what it takes to keep their “superstar” happy and find another scapegoat for the losing

  97. So, it appears that I may have gotten this one right — which doesn’t make up for all of my posts in favor of the Bargnani trade, but still…

    No offense, but the Porzingis pick was basically a crapshoot. We had a limited amount of in-game footage and the guy was a teenager when he became a prospect. Almost no information to make a reasoned evaluation. Bargnani, on the other hand, had over ten thousand minutes of league-worst, utter shit play for you to make a decision on his ability. Doesn’t inspire confidence.

  98. We had a limited amount of in-game footage and the guy was a teenager when he became a prospect. Almost no information to make a reasoned evaluation.

    You don’t need a great deal of information to know what you like. Studies have proven average laymen with minimal data are as good as predicting future outcomes as “experts” with loads of information.

  99. The trade that worries me is Grant/Porzingis + Lopez for Derrick Rose.

    Luckily, Porzingis can’t be traded until mid-December, which is good because that gives Rose 6 weeks to, you know, be Derrick Rose.

    Sad part is a majority of fans will find ‘logic’ in that plan [trading Porzingis for Cousins to fit Carmelo’s closing window]

    I mean, it’s the wrong thing to do, but there is logic to it. The Knicks didn’t need to re-sign Anthony. But they did. So with that in mind, it is logical to trade potential for an established big. In fact, there is less logic in signing Anthony to the MMM and then hiring a 19 year old to be his Robin.

    But, again, there’s good news! The Lakers can offer the Kings D’Angelo Russell (and Randle or Clarkson). And they probably already have, since they, too, have an aging maxed out star (and Russell fits the King’s owner’s wish of having a Jazz band instead of a Sousa style marching band… I think).

    *

    PS– the Kings are a fascinating metaphor for Burkian geo-pol. “We need to go from a rules-based organization, which was important when you had chaos, to a values-based organization — from kind of a programmatic offense to a read-and-respond, free-flowing offense.” -King’s Owner Vivek Ranadive.

    How’s that shift from order back to chaos going, Viv?

  100. You don’t need a great deal of information to know what you like. Studies have proven average laymen with minimal data are as good as predicting future outcomes as “experts” with loads of information.

    Indeed. I highly recommend Superforecasting by Tetlock. He isn’t the best writer and it’s tough topic to handle but it’s definitely a strong contribution. Really gets down to the nitty gritty of just how difficult it is to quantify forecasting, even after the fact.

    If you are a geek, it’s worth your time…

  101. I’m so glad we never had the chance to draft Curry and then subsequently trade him for Deron Williams.

  102. If we had drafted Curry he’d be playing for the Rockets

    Haha. Perhaps. But Walsh targeted Curry and had to settle for Hill, so he was probably more open to using him [Hill] to buy cap space.

    More likely, Curry would be a Nugget.

  103. Indeed. I highly recommend Superforecasting by Tetlock. He isn’t the best writer and it’s tough topic to handle but it’s definitely a strong contribution. Really gets down to the nitty gritty of just how difficult it is to quantify forecasting, even after the fact.

    I’ve never read Superforecasting, but I’ve read the book Black Swan, which cites Tetlock’s work quite a bit.

  104. A large group of average laymen with access to minimal data booed the shit out of Bazingus when we drafted him

  105. A large group of average laymen with access to minimal data booed the shit out of Bazingus when we drafted him

    I don’t think they even looked at the data. I’d be surprised if anyone of those knuckleheads even knew where Porzingis was from, let alone saw his highlight videos on Youtube.

  106. It’s a simplification of the ideas in books like THINKING FAST AND SLOW to say that “average laymen with access to minimal data” can make just as good projections as experts. The data on Wall Street was fairly conclusive, but that doesn’t apply equally to all fields. Some people in certain fields do consistently make better decisions than average laymen, steadily, over years. Basketball may be one of those fields; Masai Ujiri seems to make fairly consistently good decisions, for instance. Is he right every time? No, but no one is. Point is to do better in general over time. In basketball, I believe that’s possible.

    Though I still would have chosen WCS.

  107. I mean, its not like this hasn’t happened before and management sided with Cousins. He got Westphaul fired for crying out loud.

    I don’t think it took a whole lot to get Westphaul fired. But in any event, I don’t mean that they’re going to side with Karl instead of Cousins, because of course they’re not (Karl doesn’t even think they’ll choose him – I honestly believe that he wants them to fire him to make sure he gets his money), but when a young star in a small market is this pissed off this early, they almost always leave, whether by trade or by free agency. It’s usually by trade since the team doesn’t want to lose him for nothing.

  108. I think that injuries are the only thing keeping them from 70 wins this year. Oh, and Marreese Speights continuing to wear an NBA uniform.

  109. Basketball may be one of those fields;

    Basketball is one of those fields. Look at the redraft boards from 2000-2010. Lots and lots of mistakes by “expert” front offices and it doesn’t seem like many have “learned their lessons” the past 5 years.

  110. Basketball is one of those fields. Look at the redraft boards from 2000-2010. Lots and lots of mistakes by “expert” front offices.

    So you’re talking about forecasting future production when a player moves from one competitive group to another (i.e. NCAA to NBA)? Or are you saying that we can’t really forecast NBA players from year to year with any confidence?

    I’d agree that the former is very, very poor, and the latter is probably mathematically poor, but there are certain cases — e.g. Bargnani — that one can reasonably be confident in a projection of total suckage given the past data. Anecdotal, but whatever. All I do on this site is bet.

  111. I mean the phrase “average layman” is totally unclear in its referent: does it mean an average is member of the non basketball watching cohort? Does it mean the average ESPN fan? Does it mean the average Knickerblogger reader? Or is the “average layman” a totally linguistic construct, like the “average taxpayer”? It’s really quite hard to draw anything from these studies because either their concepts aren’t clarified or the way you represent the studies isn’t clear. Never mind issues of methodology, confounding factors, etc.

    I might even argue that experts are the ones who by definition predict better with similar amounts of information.

    It seems fairly obvious to me that one can only make these kind of conclusions on a case by case basis but if you show me the actual studies I guess that would settle it one way or the other.

  112. Moreover it’s not so much that being expert at forecasting is making predictions at a rate of high success so much as it’s making predictions at a rate that is both better than the competition and better than random so until th study results are clarified it’s not immediately obvious that experts offices aren’t expert merely because their prediction rate is relatively low–if it’s better than others and better than random then they could be said to make relatively expert predictions

  113. So you’re talking about forecasting future production when a player moves from one competitive group to another (i.e. NCAA to NBA)? Or are you saying that we can’t really forecast NBA players from year to year with any confidence?

    I’m specifically talking about predicting how a player’s skillset will translate from a lesser to a more competitive league (the former case). You can already extrapolate what Bargiani is/will be in the NBA based on previous models because he’s accumulated a large enough sample size at that level. But forecasting an unknown commodity which is an unfinished product is a different task because you’re predicting how a variety of variables will play out (physical development, technical skills, etc.).

  114. I mean the phrase “average layman” is totally unclear in its referent: does it mean an average is member of the non basketball watching cohort? Does it mean the average ESPN fan?

    I’d probably say the average basketball fan who follows the league by watching the games. Someone familiar with the talent in the league.

  115. if it’s better than others and better than random then they could be said to make relatively expert predictions

    That’s the problem. In many expert forecasts the experts aren’t statistically better than a random guesser by any significant margin.

  116. I imagine most average, somewhwt draft savvy Knicks fans would have picked Mudiay. Reasonable, espn watching fans would have only been vaguely aware there was some skinny Bazingus from Lithuania that some guy on TV had mentioned a few times.

  117. “I’m waiting for the Wilt comparisons to start pouring in. Sadly, he cannot match Wilts greatest achievement – scoring 100 pts in a game against the Knicks :)”

    All kidding aside, Porzingis will never be compared to Wilt. And Wilt’s greatest achievement? The 100-pt game gets all the notoriety, but averaging 48.5 minutes per game is incomprehensible, especially when averaging 50+point and 25+ rebounds at a game pace of 126+ while being triple-teamed, getting fouled constantly, and entertaining a few ladies in his free time.

    Also, Philly and Wilt played a bunch of back-to-back-to backs, and in one stretch they played 9 games in 12 nights. there were also two stretches of 4 games in a row and one stretch of 5 games in a row! (Wilt averaged 55 points per game in those 5 games.)

    I maintain that his minutes played that season is one of the top athletic achievements ever in any sport. While many of his other achievements are subject to debate, the court hasn’t gotten any longer or wider and he made many more trips up and down the court per game than do today’s players.

  118. I imagine most average, somewhwt draft savvy Knicks fans would have picked Mudiay. Reasonable, espn watching fans would have only been vaguely aware there was some skinny Bazingus from Lithuania that some guy on TV had mentioned a few times.

    I think Winslow was the pick for that type of fan (the one who knew enough about the draft to know who each of the guys were, but not a ton beyond that – your typical SAS listener).

  119. Count, I am one of the proud few who was on the Porzingis bandwagon pre-draft (johnno was with me, right?) So far so good!

  120. I wanted Mudiay. I knew he didn’t make sense for the triangle, but I thought he was the most talented player in the draft. The film I saw on Porzingis left me unsold on him and I thought he would never be a great rebounder. Good thing Phil had the balls to commit to Porzingis because I really did not think it was the right selection.

  121. Dred for GM “I…am not…an expert”

    Taking a page out of the Ben Carson campaign handbook?

  122. If the Warriors want to, can they win 75 games this year?

    It’s funny, but while Curry wows the league every day with creative new ways to dominate the NBA a la Jordan, Draymond Green is quietly becoming Scottie Pippen– an all world defender that does absolutely everything well. This GS team has dynasty written all over it. I think it’s great because the style is so pretty and so fun to watch.

  123. Except shoot? I’m sure there’s an argument for that that I’m missing, but Pippen owns a pedestrian .538 career TS%. Not only does Green have a higher TS% than that over the past two seasons, but he’s also a better career 3 pt shooter than Pippen was by a lot.

  124. There was plenty of buzz back around the time of the draft that the Knicks were interested in doing just that at the time (trading back to get Kaminsky and an asset). So Simmons saying it now is not something completely out of nowhere, ya know? So while I’d hope they weren’t actually going to do that (as that would have been a bad idea), it’s pretty believable.

    The thing with “buzz” is that it usually comes from other teams trying to screw up what one team wants to do. In all likelihood, Simmons is getting his info from a GM he is friendly with. He sure as hell is not getting it from Phil or anyone close to the Knicks.

    For all he knows, Phil was lining up trades in case LA took Okafor and Philadelphia took Porzingis because he didn’t like Russell.

    And hell, even if we had the 9th pick, I trust Phil would have been ecstatic to draft Winslow instead of Kaminsky. It’s not like Phil would tell everyone involved who he wanted to take. Only an idiot would do that.

    This is all extremely loose hearsay and guesswork. Bill has no more credibility here than the draft day buzz. It all probably came from Ainge anyway, who was desperate to package his picks and was involved in numerous multi-team trades.

  125. I’ve never read Superforecasting, but I’ve read the book Black Swan, which cites Tetlock’s work quite a bit.

    It came out this year but is a recapitulation of earlier work which has become a cornerstone of behavioral psychology (kahneman and tversky, thaler, etc etc.)

    He definitely would qualify the notion that the wisdom of the crowds work all the time. If the crowd at a country fair is guessing the weight of a hog they will do better than a fair in the middle of a liberal arts college. His major motivation in writing the book was to fight the notion that there is no such thing as predictive ability, i.e. chimps throwing darts. But he would agree that the “experts” often have terrible prediction records and are beaten handily by the most random people. There are a lot of smart guys out in the middle of nowhere who have a better, statistically significant, track record of world event forecasting than NSA guys with access to every piece of intelligence the US govt has.

    Of more interest to me is just how slippery it is to actually judge what predictions even mean after the fact. He tells the famous story of how Kennedy was given an assessment that the Bay of Pigs had a”fair chance of success,” which he interpreted to mean that it was quite likely to succeed. In fact, the official intelligence community verdict was that it had only a 25 per cent chance of success. The complexity of the issues involved go well beyond that given how deep you can go down semantic rabbit holes.

    We have issues like this all the time here at KB. Think of when Faried was drafted. Everyone who was a WP guy has been proved right. Everyone who was a D/scoring/intangibles guy probably feels proved right too.

    I do think it’s great that Mike did that TS% prediction for KP for instance and all those other hard benchmarks he does at the outset of each season. Always fun to have nice verifiable statistics to look back at.

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