Knicks Morning News (2022.08.01)

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    [game-news24.com] — Sunday, July 31, 2022 2:40:53 PM

    Volcanic Age Bankruptcy 215: Knicks new business! Unlock date – Game News 24  Game News 24

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    [www.si.com] — Sunday, July 31, 2022 1:35:07 PM

    Bill Russell Passes Away at 88 – Knicks & NBA Tracker  Sports Illustrated

  • NBA Trade Rumors: Knicks landing Donovan Mitchell could spark another trade with Lakers – FanSided
    [fansided.com] — Sunday, July 31, 2022 12:27:00 PM

    NBA Trade Rumors: Knicks landing Donovan Mitchell could spark another trade with Lakers  FanSided

  • Knicks News: Who Experts Expect Team to Select with No. 11 Pick – Bleacher Report
    [bleacherreport.com] — Sunday, July 31, 2022 11:21:06 AM

    Knicks News: Who Experts Expect Team to Select with No. 11 Pick  Bleacher Report

  • Pat Bev’s rooting for Jazz to be competitive amidst Knicks-Donovan Mitchell trade talks – Daily Knicks
    [dailyknicks.com] — Sunday, July 31, 2022 10:00:00 AM

    Pat Bev’s rooting for Jazz to be competitive amidst Knicks-Donovan Mitchell trade talks  Daily Knicks

  • RJ Barrett Trade Rumors Continue But Still Seem Unlikely – Duke Basketball Report
    [www.dukebasketballreport.com] — Sunday, July 31, 2022 8:00:00 AM

    RJ Barrett Trade Rumors Continue But Still Seem Unlikely  Duke Basketball Report

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    42 thoughts to “Knicks Morning News (2022.08.01)”

    1. Several people have pointed out that if the Knicks give RJ Barrett a max extension, the salary looks way too high as a percentage of the current cap now, but if the cap jumps to 175m in 2025-2026 as expected, his salary will look much more reasonable. Therefore it’s not only OK max him, it could save money.

      I have one thing to say about that.

      This was the exact logic used to pay Courtney Lee, Joakim Noah, and a lot of other players around the NBA that year salaries that eventually either became a problem to move or albatross partly because the cap didn’t rise as nearly much as expected in subsequent years.

      Fool me once shame on you….?

    2. Courtney Lee and Noah were old and Noah already had an extensive injury history. With RJ you are banking on him getting better. How much better he will get is obviously the big question but generally speaking, 22 year old NBA players who are starters in the league get better during years 23 to 27.

    3. The idea of the cap jump making older contracts better is not an argument to sign RJ Barrett to a long term deal. It’s an argument to sign long term deals. It’s like saying, “Hey, interests rates are really low, so you should definitely buy this property right here that is currently asking 30% over its market value.”

      Furthermore, teams will price the jump into their signings as it approaches. As usual, the only players who will be signed for meaningfully less than their value are those worth more than their max.

    4. ***Sunday, July 31, 2022 11:21:06 AM
      Knicks News: Who Experts Expect Team to Select with No. 11 Pick Bleacher Report***

      I don’t know how one becomes a bleacher report expert, but even I may have some inside info on this one.

    5. Again, unless Leon Rose — whose main strength is supposed to be his ability to build and maintain relationships — believes that not extending RJ now will irreparably harm his relationship with the team, you have to wait. There is no upside to extending him now at the number he is going to want. He could potentially live up to that contract, but it’s not worth the gamble. Look how badly we are now suffering for signing Randle to what everyone at the day of signing considered to be a bargain.

    6. Speaking of Leon Rose and relationships:

      @ChrisBHaynes
      The NBA has begun an investigation into the New York Knicks for alleged tampering regarding free agent pickup Jalen Brunson, sources inform @YahooSports.

      @ChrisBHaynes
      NBA will look into whether New York Knicks made contact with Jalen Brunson prior to the start of the free agency period.

      Fred Katz suggested this was likely a while back, but also noted that the harshest punishment for this kind of thing tends to be a second round pick, and usually only when it’s a sign-and-trade situation, rather than a straight free agent signing that happens a few seconds after FA officially opens.

    7. >Courtney Lee and Noah were old and Noah already had an extensive injury history. With RJ you are banking on him getting better.<

      I don't want to relitigate that old stuff because I understand the differences. I am just questioning the idea of "fair" being dependent on the future cap size.

      It is!

      But there is a degree on uncertainty about what the cap will be in the future.

      Imagine buying a business that's expected to grow quickly over the next 5 years. If your projections are correct, you can pay a big premium and still be getting a bargain. But if your projections are wrong, you could very well be screwed.

      Some people are suggesting that even if RJ is not worth a max now, we don't have to worry about it because the cap will grow rapidly and his salary will look better several years out. I'm saying "not so fast": I think we should decide what he's worth now, make a projection of how good he's likely to get. consider possible very significant cap growth as part of the equation, but not assume our projections are 100% correct even when it comes to the future cap. It was that very same cap logic that screwed up a LOT of teams that Lee/Noah year, not just the Knicks. We should learn from our errors.

    8. The basic problem with the Lee and Noah signings was they couldn’t play well and weren’t going to get better either. The contractual details are all secondary to that. It’s the same with RJ. Is he going to be really good or not. That is the key issue. If you can wait to find that out before you re-sign him you should.

    9. Rookie extension recap (most recent 8 years available):

      (Draft’12)
      Max extension – AD (#1), Dame (#6);
      Other notable players – Beal (#3), Drummond (#10);

      (Draft’13)
      Max extension – NONE;
      Other notable players – Oladipo (#2), CJ McCollum (#10), Giannis (#15), Gobert (#27);

      (Draft’14)
      Max extension – Wiggins (#1), Embiid (#3);
      Other notable players – Marcus Smart (#6), Randle (#7);

      (Draft’15)
      Max extension – KAT (#1), Booker (#13);
      Other notable players – D’Angelo (#2), KP (#4), Myles Turner (#11), Rozier (#16);

      (Draft’16)
      Max extension – Simmons (#1), Jamal Murray (#7), Siakam (#27);
      Other notable players – Ingram (#2), Jaylen Brown (#3), Hield (#6), Sabonis (#11), Dejounte Murray (#29);

      (Draft’17)
      Max extension – Tatum (#3), Fox (#5), Donovan Mitchell (#13), Bam (#14);
      Other notable players – Fultz (#1), Lonzo (#2), Isaac (#6), FRANK NTILIKINA (#8), Monk (#11), John Collins (#19), OG Anunoby (#23);

      (Draft’18)
      Max extension – Luka (#3), Trae (#5), Shai (#11), Michael Porter Jr (#14);
      Other notable players – Ayton (#1), JJJ (#4), Carter Jr (#7), Sexton (#8), Mikal (#10), Miles Bridges (#12), Anfernee Simons (#24), Robert Williams (#27);

      (Draft’19)
      Max extension – Zion (#1), Ja (#2), Garland (#5);
      Other notable players – RJ (#3), DeAndre Hunter (#4), Cam Johnson (#11), Herro (#13), Jordan Poole (#28), Kevin Porter Jr (#30);

    10. Now that djphan, this board’s staunchest and most consistent RJ advocate, has returned to posting here, I’d be very interested to read his take on the extension question.

    11. It’s simple, RJ doesn’t deserve the extension so don’t give it to him, it’s what almost every team has done in the same situation. He probably doesn’t want to take less, so there’ll be no deal. We’ll get back to this next offseason.

    12. And making that list, at first i compared RJ to some of the players that didn’t get the max. Well, Giannis’ leap from year 3 to year 4 is totally amazing. But also Bradley Beal, only on offense, from year 4 to year 5 with a remarkable leap. I sure hope RJ can do something similar for us to be much more confident in the future of the team. ;)

    13. Now that djphan, this board’s staunchest and most consistent RJ advocate, has returned to posting here, I’d be very interested to read his take on the extension question

      in before 300 posts on FT% as a predictive stat

    14. cyber, thanks for your list. I think Embiids max extension had some games played caveats, and Zion’s apparently has a weight/body fat caveat. Could we give RJ a max extension with a shooting efficiency caveat?

    15. Could we give RJ a max extension with a shooting efficiency caveat?

      Good idea, i can get behind this. ;)

    16. I suggested to a friend the other day that Mitchell Robinson should have a “Rick Barry FT” clause.

    17. Now that djphan, this board’s staunchest and most consistent RJ advocate, has returned to posting here, I’d be very interested to read his take on the extension question.

      i’ve had to ‘defend’ RJ the same way i’ve had to ‘criticize’ Grimes on his 3pt shooting… we didn’t and don’t know enough to make certain claims about them…. where everyone was super sure one way or the other based on not much data….

      and in terms of RJ being a great player… that’s still possible… unfortunately it’s also still possible for him to fall completely flat…. and it’s that latter possibility where you have to pause before you go crazy and max him…. Hollinger did make a decent point about the future cap possibilities and the risks there but it doesn’t out weigh the risks of him never figuring out what a good shot is…. there’s nothing particularly controversial and it’s not a very interesting discussion imo…

      i don’t know what ppl thought my opinion of him was …conflating that he COULD be paul pierce with being paul pierce and other ridiculous claims…. but one thing still remains true is that the vast vast majority of teams STILL would not give up rj for brandon clarke which is what made those claims outrageous at the time…

      and crazy things do tend to happen at age 22 and you would have to look no further than darius garland last year who was all things considered even worse than RJ almost across the board and turned around every narrative about him….

      that’s still very very possible for RJ and it doesn’t really require any tremendous skill jumps to achieve that… if his USG just goes down to a more reasonable 22-25% that’s probably enough to make him a close to 1-2bpm player…. and that’s just him taking out all the forced attempts… whether or not he recognizes that is a different question but i’m willing to bet we are going to see a different RJ this year….

    18. I feel like even if the player’s union allowed teams to indemnify themselves against poor performance with contractual caveats, no agent would actually sign off on it. The Embiid and Zion caveats protect against physical incapacity. Allowing performance-based caveats would be the end of guaranteed contracts altogether, no?

    19. and in terms of triangulating outcomes.. he’s still along the brandon ingram.. jaylen brown and jason richardson paths…. which i’ve pointed those out since the very beginning at draft time… they all had relatively dismal age 21 seasons and even age 22 seasons…. but turned out a-ok if unspectacular..

      are they multiple all-nba type guys? no… but they’re all still very good players…. and just because he might not be a first banana type that ja morant is…. there’s nothing wrong with having a second or third option type on your squad.. you need those guys too and we were going ballistic over jalen brunson…. there’s no reason rj can’t be that and if he is then we are in pretty decent shape with or without mitchell….

    20. It’s real simple. The ability to generate shots and usage essentially at will at a young age is a skill KB and the metrics underrate. Doing that but doing it relatively inefficiently is a thing KB and the metrics overrate.

      The bet with RJ Barrett is that he can convert the relatively inefficient at-will usage he now generates to efficient at-will usage as he ages and matures. I’m very comfortable making that bet. In fact, that conversion process will effectively make or break the Knicks’ short and medium-term future and all the rest, even a Spida trade, is noise. The only current problem with RJ Barrett is that he’s relatively inefficient. Everything else for him to be a 1 or a 1A piece on a really good team is in place. It might not pan out, but if you’re uncomfortable with risk and reward, you’re in the wrong (amateur armchair) business.

    21. >The basic problem with the Lee and Noah signings was they couldn’t play well and weren’t going to get better either.<

      Obviously, you want good young players with upside if your team can attract them.

      RJ and is young and talented. So he should be worth more in 3-5 years than he is now. We can debate how much he's worth now and how much he might be worth later. But the same premise holds. Whether it's a 29 year old mercenary with no upside or a 22 year old with a lot of upside, If part of your overpay is based on the assumption that the cap will be a lot higher later, that's far from certain and could pose a problem.

    22. I think players like Randle, RJ, and even Fournier had subpar years last year in part because we didn’t have a real PG to help get them higher quality shots, the spacing was poor, and the offense often devolved into an ugly “create your own shot” iso fest, We don’t know what the final team will look like for next year yet. We may still have some issues like that, but with Brunson it almost has to get better.

      I don’t think we’ll know what RJ has to offer until we see him with a real PG and better spacing. Without that, we are either assuming the low efficiency was all his fault when that’s unlikely or giving him too much credit if we assume it’s going to spike a lot with Brunson, better spacing, and some improvement. Personally,

      I’d be shocked if he isn’t noticeably more efficient next year than last year, but I’m not sure there will be a huge spike

    23. Yankees making lots of moves. Holding out futile hope for them to grab Juan Soto, too. Flags fly forever…

    24. “and in terms of triangulating outcomes.. he’s still along the brandon ingram.. jaylen brown and jason richardson paths….”

      Age 21:

      Jaylen Brown .562 TS%
      Ingram .555 TS%
      Garland .547 TS%

      RJ Barrett .511 TS%

      Maybe he’ll be fine, nobody is saying he could never play well, but one of these things is not like the others

    25. Age 21:

      Jaylen Brown .562 TS%
      Ingram .555 TS%
      Garland .547 TS%

      RJ Barrett .511 TS%

      is there a reason you left out richardson when he’s in the part you quoted?

      Richardson ts%
      age 21 – .487
      22 – .501
      23 – .504
      27 – .554
      28 – .571

      but of course he’s an outlier….

      here’s tony parker age 21 – .516 ->age 24 – .572
      chris paul age 21 ..537 ->age 23 .599
      demar derozoan age 22 – .503 -> age 26 – .550 ->age 30 – .603

      oh but those guys are from a different era you say?

      here’s lonzo ball age 21 – .487 ->age 23 – .575
      bradley beal age 21 – .521 ->age age 23 – .604

      and this is JUST focusing on shooting…. of which there are maybe a couple dozen more examples of non guard types…. i’ve said this a million times… ts% is a poor fwd looking metric… because players improve at shooting! they become better free throw shooters and 3p shooters… and that’s a large chunk of what makes up TS last time i checked….

      but maybe i am a fucking idiot… but at least i don’t try to leave stuff out to strengthen my argument….

    26. One thing being ignored in the “RJ MAX” discussion is when will this team next be appreciably under the cap, including cap holds. If the strategy is to stay above the cap and bring in talent through trades and/or the draft, then having a higher salary helps you match salary and operate above the cap. In that case, maxing RJ is not the same as spending that money on free agents, because we can offer RJ money through his Bird Rights that wouldn’t be available to other players. If there is a compelling case that RJ’s contract has a decent shot at being below market rate in the new CBA and that the Knicks won’t be operating as a below the cap team by that point, then maxing RJ is probably the best move… despite the unknowns in projecting future performance of a 22 year old

    27. First three years TS+
      Jason Richardson: 94, 96, 98
      Tony Parker: 96, 104, 100
      Chris Paul: 102, 99, 107
      DeMar Derozen: 102, 98, 95
      Bradley Beal: 96, 94, 97
      Ingram: 86, 96, 99
      Jaylen Brown: 98, 101, 98
      Lonzo Ball: 80, 87, 92

      RJ: 85, 94, 90

      So yeah, Lonzo Ball- a pure playmaking, low usage spot up shooter was worse than RJ but every other guy mentioned got off to solidly better shooting starts to their career than RJ. To suggest otherwise is disingenuous.

    28. here’s tony parker age 21 – .516 ->age 24 – .572
      chris paul age 21 ..537 ->age 23 .599
      demar derozoan age 22 – .503 -> age 26 – .550 ->age 30 – .603

      Those guys didn’t sign max deals on their second contracts, although in CP3’s case that was because he didn’t want to commit long term to the hornets. DeRozan wasn’t even a good NBA player until he was like 26, he’s not an argument for extending a 22 year old. RJ should get better, the issue is he has to get a lot better to be worth anything near what you would want from a guy you’re giving that much money to. Giving the worst regular on your team the most money is a poor strategy.

    29. I’ll change the focus of the discussion a little, those players were able to improve by changing their shot distribution.

      Ball stopped driving and only takes 3s. Parker stopped taking 3s and only drove. Beal took fewer long 2s and also improved his midrange fg%.

      RJs main problems area is 3-10ft. He takes over 20% of his attempts from 3-10ft (creeping up every year) and only shoots 30% on them. (NBA.com & BRef both show the same thing with slightly different categories).

      RJ needs to find a way to (1) drive the extra couple feet to the basket or (2) improve his shooting % from the midrange.

      That’s the path for RJ to improve. We should try and watch for that this season.

    30. We should max RJ (or at least be willing to max him). Then we hope the TV deal goes through as projected.

      @Strat, I think that even if the deal doesn’t generate the projected revenue the math on the risk-reward changes enough to keep him. Hopefully we hit the reward side.

    31. Looking at all the RJ posts, especially cybersoze’s it seems like RJ isn’t good enough for a max extension yet. The Knicks could wait and see or they could maybe negotiate something smaller. Which would you recommend?

    32. So yeah, Lonzo Ball- a pure playmaking, low usage spot up shooter was worse than RJ but every other guy mentioned got off to solidly better shooting starts to their career than RJ. To suggest otherwise is disingenuous.

      how’d i know nicos would pop in with relative ts!

      the reason efficiency is up around the league is due to shot distribution but a midrange shot.. 3pter and an attempt at the rim are all relatively similar shots across eras…. the problem isn’t rj’s shot distribution…. i hope we can agree to that since most of his attempts are at the rim and behind the 3pt line which is morey ball compliant (3-10ft attempts aside)……

      if you assume that’s true then the problem is that the shots just aren’t going in … and i’m sure there’s a lot of folks who will take .550-.600 ts from him…. that’s the bulk of where everyone of those guys landed.. and because of RJ’s other skills that’s going to be an ok player irrespective of where .550 ts ends up relative to the league…

      of course you want higher the better but to me it’s pretty silly to think that someone cannot improve their TS substantially… that’s the part that’s been debunked… where that ends up relative to the league will be whatever it is and rj’s value will align with that….

      Those guys didn’t sign max deals on their second contracts,

      you have to account for the fact hat a max to rj isn’t a true max either by the time the new tv deal kicks in….

    33. Almost none to none of the players mentioned improved their shot distribution, I’m not going to go through the entire list again.

      If RJ doesn’t improve his shot chart, that’s a major wrench in the comparison.

      And a .550 TS% makes him an Alec Burks who shoots more and worse. You can probably get away with that player off the bench. But if he’s talking a significant portion of your offense with the starting unit, then (1) you’re not a good offensive team or (2) he’s an active detriment.

    34. Djphan- I don’t think we disagree that much about possible outcomes- push comes to shove I think he has a J Rich type career- solid, might make an all-star game or two and probably worth the rookie max. That said, I think you’re underestimating how bad he’s been- or really how bad he was last year. He WAS on an Ingram trajectory but laid a big egg last year. He’s 22 so yeah, he can still get back on that trajectory but just about every guy you listed was far closer to league average efficiency than RJ through their first three years so he’s got ground- a lot of ground- to make up.

      Worse, if you look at the older guys, Parker, Beal, Paul, Richardson, and DeRozen- by year three all except Beal had put up at least one season pretty much in line with their career average so RJ rolling with a 90+ TS through three years should be worrisome. I do like the shot chart and the ability to draw fouls and some secondary playmaking are solid building blocks. And sure, the combination of high usage with low turnovers at his age IS something even with the poor efficiency. But he’s been really, troublingly inefficient.

    35. “Almost none to none of the players mentioned improved their shot distribution, I’m not going to go through the entire list again.”

      This is supposed to say that all of them improved their shot distribution… I’m tired

      So RJ likely will need to improve his shot distribution.

      Young players have low hanging fruit, RJ doesn’t.

    36. ***is there a reason you left out richardson when he’s in the part you quoted?***

      I don’t quite see how Richardson helps the argument. Not only was that 20 years ago, but he was 21 when he came into the league, has a career .528 TS%, and was a salary dump 2 years after signing his extension. He suckered GS into that deal by having one season of improved efficiency on a last place team before regressing back to being bad (those 27 and 28 year old season you refer to were after he’d been salary dumped once, then dumped again for a disgruntled Boris Diaw and the contract of Raja Bell). Basically, Jason Richardson is the outcome the Knicks want to try to avoid with Barrett, not emulate.

    37. In other news, JK is back, spray canning Blind Faith. Was a nice surprise, even if it was an abbreviated episode.

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