Knicks Morning News (2022.07.24)

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    44 thoughts to “Knicks Morning News (2022.07.24)”

    1. “Donnie Walsh
      July 24, 2022 at 2:31 am
      Hey Brian, for tomorrow’s thread can you do a “let’s expand the what makes less sense discussion” and add a third option to the poll?

      Which makes the least sense:

      1) the Melo Trade
      2) the proposed Mitchell trade
      3) Jordan Peele’s “Nope””

      Fun fact: When I first started working as a teacher at my school back in 1992, Jordan Peele was an 8th grader. I taught only 7th graders at that time so my recollections of him are very limited, so I can’t take any credit (or blame) for his work.

    2. Has anyone even heard a credible bid from anyone other than the Knicks?

      The Heat’s name gets brought up once in awhile, but they seem to be more tied to a pursuit of Durant (can’t see that one happening). Mitchell might be their second choice, but I haven’t seen anyone even lay out possible deal details. It feels like we are bidding against ourselves and Ainge’s stubbornness. Be patient!!!

    3. I was just going back to the stats for the UTA-LAC playoff series in 2021. It’s prtty mind-boggling that Rudy Gobert was a non-factor in that series, considering that LAC went extremely small and Kawhi Leonard was out. Gobert had 7 blocks in 6 games, and averaged only 12.5 pts in 36 minutes. Even his 11.7 rebounds per game seemed not all that great. Then this year, Gobert again didn’t make Dallas pay for playing small. Same with Houston in 2029.

      Is that about Quin Snyder? Or is it about Rudy Gobert?

      In any case, I’m baffled at why Minny sold the farm for Gobert. I just don’t see how he and KAT are going to have a synergistic relationship on the court. The Clippers with a healthy Kawhi and PG13 are going ot be a great test of that trade’s efficacy.

    4. If we want an undersized shooting guard so badly, maybe we should make a big offer to Colin Sexton? His age 22 stats aren’t that far off of Mitchell’s, and he would only cost zero draft picks and one Fournier (I don’t mean to say we should do this, just that the price for Mitchell is maybe exorbitant.)

    5. Strat, I think it’s less about who else is bidding and more about Ainge not being in any hurry to move Mitchell. People get into the downside of waiting, but the most likely outcome of Aing waiting is getting a deal close to what he held out for.

      One thing that works in our favor is that Ainge isn’t likely to rush into a deal with another team without running it by Aller/Rose first. For example, I don’t think he would have traded Porzingis to Dallas for the return that Mills/Perry settled for without exploring further or trying to milk a better deal out of Dallas (e.g. maybe Brunson instead of DSJ, alas.)

      Because time is on Ainge’s side, he will likely wait until training camp without negotiating at all. Then he will try to extract the maximum he can out of the Knicks. The danger from the Knicks end is that Miami might offer two established young players like Herro and Duncan, maybe even throwing in Vincent and Strus, along with whatever picks they can offer. Ainge doesn’t want salary, but if he thinks he can turn any of those young guys around for assets, he might value that more than Obi, Grimes, IQ, plus whatever picks we are “willing” to offer. You can bet he is going to consider every possibility of netting the most positive result in both the short and long term.

      That’s why this is a referendum on Brock Aller more than anything. He will certainly know as much as Ainge about the value of each and every piece in the deal, as well as potential proposals from opposing teams. If he budges, it’s probably Leon’s meddling. If he stands pat, the deal is not going to get done until it is disadvantageous for Ainge to stand pat or deal with someone else.

      For all we know, the Heat may make a play for Collin Sexton, who seems to be available at a much lower cost. that would take them out of the running and change the landscape considerably. Then Mitchell might choose to go public with a trade demand. But as things stand, nothing is gonna happen until Ainge either gets what he wants or is immensly pressured by market forces to give in.

    6. ***UTA-LAC playoff series in 2021. It’s prtty mind-boggling that Rudy Gobert was a non-factor in that series***

      He had the game winning block on Morris’ corner three to end game 1.

    7. I’m pretty sure there are more players with stats comparable to Mitchell’s at 22, but how many of those will proceed to be 3 times all star by age 25?

    8. Z-man, Duncan Robinson is not a positive asset, go check his stats and his contract. No way Ainge takes on that contract as a positive.

    9. Find its hard to believe Ainge would take an inferior Heat package just because he’s not getting what he wants from us. Duncan Robinsons contract is horrendous.

    10. Yeah, I should have looked more carefully into Duncan. what shocked me was to lear that he’s 28 years old!!!

    11. But the larger point remains that Ainge might value certain players as better assets than our draft picks or players, so we can’t just look at the amount of draft picks or players.

    12. “Donnie Walsh
      July 24, 2022 at 11:12 am
      ***UTA-LAC playoff series in 2021. It’s prtty mind-boggling that Rudy Gobert was a non-factor in that series***

      He had the game winning block on Morris’ corner three to end game 1.”

      Which makes his performance in the remaining 5 games look even worse…

    13. I think the only chance Miami has of topping a reasonable offer from us is if they get a third team involved that’s willing to trade picks for Herro.

      In that case they could theoretically offer:
      -3 of their own picks (if they can get OKC to unprotect their 2025 pick)
      -Any picks they get for Herro, let’s be generous and say 2 unprotected picks
      -Lowry for salary purposes
      -Strus and Vincent

      So 5 unprotected picks, and Strus and Vincent in terms of substantive value.

      I’m not even 100% sure that beats out my hard line in the sand of one of IQ/Grimes, 3 unprotected Knicks picks, and the WAS pick, and it’s a rather fanciful scenario anyway.

      In the event Riley can pull it off, if Ainge prefers that package I’d tip my cap to Riley and live to fight another day. That it involves so many moving parts and still isn’t clearly better than our B offer is pretty telling.

    14. “In the event Riley can pull it off, if Ainge prefers that package I’d tip my cap to Riley and live to fight another day. That it involves so many moving parts and still isn’t clearly better than our B offer is pretty telling.”

      Yeah, what fucks things up is the extreme overpay for Gobert setting an inflated bar for Mitchell’s market value. Again, it comes down to Aller. He needs to have the cojones to stick to his guns, and to be assertive enough not be overruled by an overeager Leon.

    15. Yeah I always surprise myself when I find out Duncan is 28 you would think hes some up and comer shooter.

      If Ainge really likes the Heat Package you would have to assume he thinks he can flip herro for multiple unprotected firsts which I dont think any teams would do right now. Hes a liability on defense in the playoffs who gives up as much as he scores.

    16. “(if they can get OKC to unprotect their 2025 pick)”

      a) Why would it be up to the Thunder to drop the protection? Isn’t it up to the Heat? Fr example, we have the Mav’s 2023 top-10 protected pick. Wouldn’t it be up to the Mavs to drop the protection?
      b) How would it benefit them to keep the pick protected?

    17. A team can’t unilaterally drop protection on a pick it owes even though doing so theoretically benefits the team that owns the pick.

      The reason teams that owe picks sometimes want them to become unprotected is because protected picks count for both the year they’re owed AND the year(s) they might convey for Stepien purposes.

      Miami can’t trade it’s 2027 pick as of now because the pick they owe to OKC in 2025 could theoretically convey in 2026 due to lottery protection, even though that seems very unlikely.

    18. I’m glad that this trade hasn’t happened yet – likely means that we haven’t caved.

    19. I don’t understand the physics of Russell Westbrook. If you get him, you get 47 million in NBA Monopoly $, no?
      Maybe we make an overpay (in an overheated market) for Donovan, but then trade Julius, Rose, Fournier (If he’s here) for Russ and the biggest FA spree in history next summer.

      What am I missing? (LAL wanting Dr. J?)

    20. whatever the benefit is of having westbrook on the team for a year, I wouldn’t pay it…unless it’s a buyout, which makes no sense for just a 3027 firstie…

      the t-wolves thing seemed to be largely motivated by their current roster and the addition in the front office…

      wasn’t so long ago the bucks seemed crazy to “go all in” on holiday…

      if you think you know how this story ends…

    21. Maybe we make an overpay (in an overheated market) for Donovan, but then trade Julius, Rose, Fournier (If he’s here) for Russ and the biggest FA spree in history next summer.

      The problem is even with all of those trades, RJ’s cap hold is $32 million next season (if they don’t extend him). It’d be hard to have any notable cap room next offseason even with all of those guys traded as RJ, Mitchell and Brunson alone take up about $90 million in cap space.

    22. “Then this year, Gobert again didn’t make Dallas pay for playing small. Same with Houston in 2029.”

      The goal of small ball is to make it tough on the opposing C on defense. Most will be uncomfortable guarding on the perimeter and it also keeps them from rebounding and defending the paint well. The league has been focusing on more Cs that can stretch the floor. I don’t think that’s necessarily right, at least not all the time. I always say the league desperately needs some Cs that can post up really well, pass out of double teams, dominate the boards and do damage on mismatches inside. Then there’s a tradeoff where big might be dominating enough inside the other team is forced to go bigger. But even the very tall and skilled Cs these days don’t want to or can’t take advantage of their size inside well enough to force adjustments. Gobert is so good defensively it’s hard to complain, but he can’t do enough on offense to force an adjustment.

    23. donovan mitchell, donovan mitchell, donovan mitchell…basketball, basketball…

      had this quote stuck in my head for a while:
      If the rule you followed brought you to this, of what use was the rule?

      started doing some reading of different academic papers on No Country for Old Men, in particular anton chirgugh…his portrayal as an “agent of fate” is what stuck with me…

      here comes crazy, for so long i was open to the notion that perhaps the universe might be on an expanding/contracting loop…i don’t know, a 30 billion year loop or something – therefore fate/pre-destiny could be a legitimate thing…

      i could worry less about the future, because it was already set…determined…

      one of those eloquent science folks recently stated though that it’s now irrefutable that the universe is expanding – faster and faster – and, it ain’t ever gonna come back together…i thought maybe as galaxies collide they would suck stuff back together…it once seemed like a possible thing…the notion that everything is flying apart faster and faster, is not good for me…

      big fan of comic books, video games, movies/shows…i already know i have a weak spot for certain “stylized” visuals…i am the target audience for Westworld, more proud though for “getting” The Tick…but yeah, staring at rachel evans wood and thandie newton for extended periods of time in tight leather outfits is not such a bad thing…

      anyways, finished season 3, watching the show notes and supposedly the whole show is about free will versus pre-destiny (or perhaps pre-destination)…not sure, maybe those things can be in combo…

    24. but yeah, staring at rachel evans wood and thandie newton for extended periods of time in tight leather outfits is not such a bad thing…

      And Tessa Thompson as a badass executive! ;)

    25. “thenoblefacehumper
      July 24, 2022 at 12:53 pm
      A team can’t unilaterally drop protection on a pick it owes even though doing so theoretically benefits the team that owns the pick.”

      But why would OKC ever balk on Miami saying to them “hey, we’d like to remove the top-10 protection from the pick we traded to you.” I can’t think of a single reason why that would ever be an issue. Can you imagine if Cuban said to us “Hey, we’d like to remove the top-10 protection from your 2023 pick, are you okay with that?” and Leon saying, “Hmmm…let me think about it and get back to you…”

    26. Well, I guess I can think of one circumstance….if say OKC felt that they would rather have the pick convey in a year later than 2025 because a top-10 pick in 2025 was worth less than a pick in a future draft….but it seems highly unlikely.

    27. Because if they want to lift the protections it’s because they need to do it, so why would you do it for free? Probably the Dallas pick won’t fall under the protection, we’d get nothing out of it and we’d help them make deals to get even better, thus lowering the value of the pick they owe us. Unless they pay us, i bet Leon would say “No thanks, we’re good”.

    28. @geo I think many (most?) philosophers would tell you that the universe is a set of deterministic chemical reactions with some randomness mechanics mixed in. We don’t have free will, and whether or not we do has little to do with whether the universe is expanding or contracting.

      So please, don’t blame Leon when he trades the farm for Donovan Mitchell, he has no choice in the matter. :)

    29. “cybersoze
      July 24, 2022 at 8:07 pm
      Because if they want to lift the protections it’s because they need to do it, so why would you do it for free? Probably the Dallas pick won’t fall under the protection, we’d get nothing out of it and we’d help them make deals to get even better, thus lowering the value of the pick they owe us. Unless they pay us, i bet Leon would say “No thanks, we’re good”.”

      I dunno, its a valid point but that doesn’t seem like a wise political move to turn down something that might benefit you out of spite. I’m curious, though…has there ever been a case where a team refused to let the sending team drop the protections on a pick?

    30. I’m curious, though…has there ever been a case where a team refused to let the sending team drop the protections on a pick?

      I’m not sure what you’re asking, exactly. There are teams that routinely don’t allow the other team to drop the protection unless the other team sends them stuff. Is that what you mean? Like the Knicks would not have allowed the Mavericks to have dropped the protections on their 2023 pick last season unless Dallas sent them something in return.

    31. In fact, the very scenario of Cuban asking us to remove the protections and us saying we’d need an asset to do so has been discussed. Since the pick is highly likely to convey anyway, removing the protections is pretty much nothing but a favor to Dallas (and in the case of OKC, to Miami). NBA teams are competing with one another and are loathe to do each other literal favors.

      You also have to consider that removing the protections from the DAL/MIA pick in order to let those teams make a significant trade will almost certainly make those very picks worse, hurting the team that removed the protections from them.

    32. To put a finer point on it, it would be downright malpractice for Leon Rose to not extract something from Cuban if we were to remove those protections.

    33. hmm…sort of makes sense, I just never heard of it happening, are there actually instances of teams giving up assets to have protections on picks the had previously traded removed?

    34. hmm…sort of makes sense, I just never heard of it happening, are there actually instances of teams giving up assets to have protections on picks the had previously traded removed?

      Yes, earlier this year, the very same Heat protected 2025 pick that OKC has now that we’re talking about the Heat trying to get the protections removed on it was a pick that the Heat traded to OKC with a player to get its protected 2023 first rounder back from OKC so that Miami could trade its 2022 first rounder, if it wanted to (it didn’t, but it was involved in a lot of trade proposals).

    35. Shams:

      Utah, New York and Indiana are among the teams who have discussed deals with the Lakers involving Russell Westbrook and draft capital, sources said. There appears no deal imminent in those conversations — as the overall trade market plays out over the next two months of the offseason.

      Also, a whole bunch on Boston offering Jaylen Brown in a package for Durant.

      https://theathletic.com/3446562/2022/07/25/celtics-offer-jaylen-brown-package-for-kevin-durant-the-latest-on-donovan-mitchell-and-more-inside-pass/

    36. Brown is such a smart guy to try to trade for Durant. I just don’t know what else Boston has to deal. EDITED TO ADD: Reading the piece, it sounds like Brooklyn would want Smart, picks, Brown and one other rotation guy (I bet Grant Williams, as he has the least purpose on the team with Durant there). That’s a good deal for both teams.

    37. If we let Russ go to Utah, it’s just a matter of time until Mitchell demands a trade. Brock wins.

    38. Shams specifically notes that team keeping an eye on Westbrook are doing so contingent on other deals. In other words, Utah would be willing to trade for Russ (in exchange for the first round pick the Lakers would attach with him) if they trade Mitchell first, ya know? Shams also notes in the same piece that Utah is in no rush to trade Mitchell.

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