Knicks Morning News (2022.05.28)

  • NBA Rumors: 3 Trades To Send Knicks’ Julius Randle Back To Lakers – NBA Analysis Network
    [nbaanalysis.net] — Saturday, May 28, 2022 1:55:36 AM

    NBA Rumors: 3 Trades To Send Knicks’ Julius Randle Back To Lakers  NBA Analysis Network

  • Tracy McGrady thinks Knicks are trending in the right direction – New York Daily News
    [www.nydailynews.com] — Friday, May 27, 2022 6:33:00 PM

    Tracy McGrady thinks Knicks are trending in the right direction  New York Daily News

  • Potential NBA Draft Night Trades For Non-Playoff Teams To Consider – Sports Illustrated
    [www.si.com] — Friday, May 27, 2022 5:33:13 PM

    Potential NBA Draft Night Trades For Non-Playoff Teams To Consider  Sports Illustrated

  • Latest Zion Williamson injury update might excite Knicks fans – Daily Knicks
    [dailyknicks.com] — Friday, May 27, 2022 5:00:00 PM

    Latest Zion Williamson injury update might excite Knicks fans  Daily Knicks

  • New Sports Books About the Knicks, Rickey Henderson and More – The New York Times
    [www.nytimes.com] — Friday, May 27, 2022 4:30:24 PM

    New Sports Books About the Knicks, Rickey Henderson and More  The New York Times

  • FOCO releases 5 Knicks bobbleheads including 3 legends – Empire Sports Media
    [empiresportsmedia.com] — Friday, May 27, 2022 12:13:24 PM

    FOCO releases 5 Knicks bobbleheads including 3 legends  Empire Sports Media

  • Proposed Nets-Knicks Trade Swaps Veteran Sharpshooters – Heavy.com
    [heavy.com] — Friday, May 27, 2022 11:43:59 AM

    Proposed Nets-Knicks Trade Swaps Veteran Sharpshooters  Heavy.com

  • Mavs’ Loss – With Frank Ntilikina – Puts Weird Knicks NBA Finals Streak in Jeopardy – Sports Illustrated
    [www.si.com] — Friday, May 27, 2022 11:33:36 AM

    Mavs’ Loss – With Frank Ntilikina – Puts Weird Knicks NBA Finals Streak in Jeopardy  Sports Illustrated

  • Damian Lillard gives Knicks guard Immanuel Quickley huge honor – Daily Knicks
    [dailyknicks.com] — Friday, May 27, 2022 10:00:00 AM

    Damian Lillard gives Knicks guard Immanuel Quickley huge honor  Daily Knicks

  • Ep. 152 Shock Jacques Knicks Podcast – Posting and Toasting
    [www.postingandtoasting.com] — Friday, May 27, 2022 9:00:00 AM

    Ep. 152 Shock Jacques Knicks Podcast  Posting and Toasting

  • NBA Rumors: Trade Reports and Rumblings from Around the League – Bleacher Report
    [bleacherreport.com] — Friday, May 27, 2022 9:00:00 AM

    NBA Rumors: Trade Reports and Rumblings from Around the League  Bleacher Report

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    40 thoughts to “Knicks Morning News (2022.05.28)”

    1. From previous thread:

      Joseph Gill’s analysis is interesting. I don’t disagree with any of his assessments of Mitch’s efficiency in a vacuum, but take issue with this statement:

      “Even if his positioning was clogging the rim, surely it should be on his teammates to adapt to Robinson’s elite at-rim efficiency. Why instead would it be Robinson’s duty to sacrifice attempts and efficiency to execute his highly valuable skill set in a way most convenient to inferior finishers?

      Clearly, I believe that the lane-clogging aspects of Robinson’s positioning are minimal compared to the benefits provided by the threat of lobs and dump-downs to Robinson. Shots that score 1.42 points on a per-attempt basis simply print wins for the team attempting them.”

      First, saying that “surely it should be on his teammates to adapt to Robinson’s elite at-rim efficiency” is a pretty telling statement. It implies that Mitch should be the guy you build a team around, rather than building a team the best way you can in a restrictive marketplace and then finding a C to match the team that you built. Once you lock in Mitch for 4 years at a near-market value, you are making that marketplace even more restrictive. And assuming that Mitch will stay healthy enough that he will always be a positive asset in a trade is not consistent with his history thus far.

      Second, I have always taken issue with the view that wins are generated by a compilation of average PPP that is higher than an opposing team’s PPP, i.e. divorced from the in-game situational dynamics. In Mitch’s case, you can virtually guarantee on any given possession that Mitch’s PPP will be below league average simply by sending him to the FT line. This means that having Mitch on the floor in the last minutes of close games is a PPP trap door.

      Finally, Gill brushes off Mitch’s extreme low usage and puts the burden of efficiency of the vast majority of the team’s possessions on his teammates. In other words, it’s not whether Mitch’s efficiency would drop if he took a midrange shot vs. a lob or putback. It’s whether the team’s efficiency would increase if Mitch took some extremely low efficiency shots away from teammates. Guys like Bam and Horford take some 1.0 PPP shots that lower their efficiency, but it might be that they do so to replace 0.80 PPP shots from teammates.

    2. Also from previous thread:

      And this is why I think that in today’s NBA you should build teams from the outside in, unless the guy on the inside is Embiid, Jokic, KAT (well not really) Giannis, or even Bam. That’s why I’m not overly concerned about whether we lose Mitch for nothing, or for a minimal return. The FO was overly cautious based on Mitch’s injury history and lackluster first 20-30 games or so and it looks like they miscalculated based on his resurgence later in the season. So be it, they’ll have to live with a lower cost facsimile of Mitch and his 5 uberefficient FGA per game. I can live with a less efficient but more versatile solution to the C problem, hopefully one who can be on the floor when the game comes down to FT makes.

    3. I’m really curious what impact the endowment effect has in our perception of Mitch. Or rather, the inverse – I feel many of us were high on him because he was a second round pick. Combine that with eye-popping athleticism, and it was easy to love him. And he really has improved, though the numbers don’t completely show it.

      But — if he had been drafted #3, where would we be in this discussion?

    4. I think both endowment effect and his salary both contribute. Everyone hated Portis because he was so overpaid. But ignoring salary, he was a useful player and one of our best three point shooters. Mitch is underpaid, so maybe that makes us fall in love with him.

    5. You’re one of the few people I’d believe on that, humper. I just think it’s interesting that the narrative on RJ and Mitch is so different. Mitch is really limited, and no, you can’t build a team around him, but market value doesn’t damage your cap for what he gives you, whereas even a ‘discount’ deal to RJ is a real problem if the wishcasting doesn’t work out.

    6. I’m not sure I’d sign either one of them, though, because Z-Man is right that Mitch is not playable on a postseason contender. The spacing and the terrible foul-shooting – good teams hunt weakness, and he would be played off the floor unless he radically improves.

      He’d be a big reason the team MADE the playoffs, though.

    7. Yeah, I think at this point, people have accurately assessed Mitch’s value. Any long-term signing is a risk. It just depends on how the Knicks value Mitch. I think the argument that they’ve undervalued his at-the-rim efficiency and perimeter defense more than maybe another team would have makes sense. But during the span of his career, we’ve also had mostly terrible coaching and basically no real point guard. Plus, if I I were him, I wouldn’t want to play with Randle anymore due to his preferential treatment, ball hogging, and shot selection.

    8. thenoblefacehumper: I don’t think my opinion on the wisdom of signing him to a 4/$52M contract would be any different whatsoever?

      There’s no doubt that he’s worth that money, especially as it becomes a smaller and smaller percentage of the cap.

      But that’s with the hindsight of his successful recovery from serious foot surgery, virtually no preseason, vast improvement from his first 20 games or so where he looked stiff and slow, and staying relatively healthy for an entire season for pretty much the first time. I know that there are many who felt they should have locked him up at 4/52 before the season started despite the obvious very real risks in doing so.

      In other words, it certainly was fair for the FO to worry about signing him to a long-term deal until a certain point. By the trade deadline, where it was clear that he was worth the money, it was probably too late. There was probably no one willing to offer much for him as a rental, i.e. without a guaranteed extension, and if he wasn’t going to extend with us, why would he with another team at that point?

    9. Also, if Mitch was the 3rd pick or picked anywhere in the first round, the discussion would be about what he’s worth compared to the rookie max extension, not 4/52, which he surely wouldn’t have taken under these circumstances.

    10. Is there a way to look at players’ median stats rather than averages? It feels like valuable information that’s not taken into account.

      Since you guys have to fight about something I’ll add that I think Mitche’s median numbers will demonstrate he’s really not that good against quality competition.

    11. Ingmarrrr:
      Is there a way to look at players’ median stats rather than averages? It feels like valuable information that’s not taken into account.

      Since you guys have to fight about something I’ll add that I think Mitche’s median numbers will demonstrate he’s really not that good against qualitycompetition.

      That’s a good question. ESPN has a game log page. If you can find a way to paste into a spreadsheet it should easy from there. On some sites there used to be a way to export the data. I’m using my phone now and it’s very difficult to try such things. But I can use a computer in eight hours or so. If you tell me which stat you want a median for, I’ll play around then. Note the game log page I referred to is here:

      https://www.espn.com/nba/player/gamelog/_/id/4351852/mitchell-robinson

    12. I hope the Knicks retain Mitch, but I also wonder if he might have some off the court issue(s) that make the Knicks hesitant, as well. Hopefully not, but they might have concerns that he’s one of those guys who, once “paid,” gets distracted, lazy or whatever with all the cash rolling in.

    13. Seeing a lot of Johny Davis being mocked to us and I’m warming up to him alot after seeing some scouting reports. Definitely seems like the type of player Thibs and the FO would love.

    14. I’m very torn on Johnny Davis. I have a really hard time seeing his game translate to the next level. My hope is that someone takes the decision out of our hands and drafts him higher than #11.

      Here’s a pretty thorough video scouting report, the negatives really bother me.

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PIr9_B76mIc

    15. I’m warming up to the idea of Dyaon Daniels if he falls to us, I think he can be what some hoped that Frank could be…a big defensive lead guard who could shoot and pass a bit. I see much more potential in looking at Dyson’s film than I did with Frank’s. Seems like he can get to the rim with both hands, the shot doesn’t look broken, and the body looks like Jayson Tatum’s. Shot looks a bit funky, NOT like Tatum’s, but with his size and speed you can overlook that a bit. Sounds like his stock has risen after he lit up the combine so probably won’t be available at #11. Maybe a trade-up target?

    16. Z-Man, it does not sound like there is even a remote chance of Daniels falling to 11 at this point.

    17. Alan:
      Z-Man, it does not sound like there is even a remote chance of Daniels falling to 11 at this point.

      Yeah, that’s why I mentioned trading up, would you consider it? Maybe for a young player like Deuce and a future 1st?

    18. I mean, I don’t see Dyson going before #7…1-6 seem pretty set to be the consensus top-3 plus Ivey, Murray and Sharpe…

    19. I’ve seen some mocks that have him going around 5. Given the meteoric rise, I wouldn’t be surprised if he goes 4th ahead of Ivey, just as Toronto took Scottie Barnes instead of Jalen Suggs.

    20. Dyson seems Lonzo esque in a lot of ways and apparently hes been shooting very well from 3 in workouts. A lot of top 5 rumors going around for him lately. Cant see teams taking him over Sharpe and Murray but anything is possible I suppose.

      I think the Giddey comparisons are carrying him a little bit recently.

    21. Not sure what people want from Mitch. He put up the highest fg% in history. He plays good if not great defense. He has to be accounted for at all times. If he missed three shots more per game he would be medium usage and still have great efficiency numbers.

      The Celtics may not beat the Bucks without Al Horford, who is making 27 million. The Heat need Bam. Kevon Looney was a thing for a few games. You need tall people on a basketball court. And if we can get him for 12-15 we should. He is good enough to be the big man on a championship team.

    22. The Celtics may not beat the Bucks without Al Horford, who is making 27 million. The Heat need Bam. Kevon Looney was a thing for a few games. You need tall people on a basketball court. And if we can get him for 12-15 we should. He is good enough to be the big man on a championship team.

      i would have been fine paying mitch his max extension. but mitch isn’t these guys — always in the right position, switching with alacrity, moving the ball with purpose, hitting their screens. and zman is right the ppp argument in the begley article is provincial. knicks have a 53% ts w mitch on in his career and 54% with him off, and his backups have been terrible offensive players. in the last 11 years there have been 40 500 min seasons of sub 15% usg, 8% ast, .1 3pt rate, and over 63% ts. mitch is 4 of them, and the group overall has a negative o-rapm (offensive on-off attempting to adjust for context).

      i don’t think we’ve come close to optimizing for mitch, even without expanding his game, and i’d like to see us try. just on offense, i would rather have capela on the 17-18 rockets or chandler on the 12-13 knicks than portis. but on the 19-20 rockets or the 21-22 knicks i’d take portis over capela/mitch.

      but that doesn’t absolve the weakness of the individual efficiency argument. someone who scores 10/36 at even 1.5 ppp only has to hurt the remaining offense by ~.03ppp on the other 65-70 poss/36 vs. a spacer/passer to undo their efficiency contribution. not nothing, but hardly insurmountable. what matters for value is the marginal contribution to team efficiency across a distribution of lineups, and the cost of any constraints requiring particular lineup arrangements. if you have a formula telling you mitch is worth $20m today centered on his ppp, your formula is oversimplified.

    23. Owen:
      Not sure what people want from Mitch. He put up the highest fg% in history. He plays good if not great defense.He has to be accounted for at all times. If he missed three shots more per game he would be medium usage and still have great efficiency numbers.

      The Celtics may not beat the Bucks without Al Horford, who is making 27 million. The Heat need Bam. Kevon Looney was a thing for a few games. You need tall people on a basketball court. And if we can get him for 12-15 we should. He is good enough to be the big man on a championship team.

      I don’t think anyone is saying that se shouldn’t sign him for that money. It’s more about the impact on the team’s prospects should he choose to sign with another team without the Knicks getting anything in return. Some think it would represent a catastrophic blunder that speaks to the incompetence of the current management team. Others like myself feel that it was reasonable to wait i.e. not offer the full money and years before the season started given the risks, and that in the event that he chooses to go elsewhere for nothing in return, it’s not that big a deal.

    24. I think our best and most likely move re: the draft will be to trade down for an extra asset and draft a big — either a pf/c like Eason to replace Randle’s minutes if they move him or a c like Duren to replace Mitch. Maybe they can do this and add a late first, a 2023 first if they’re lucky, or even a young player.

    25. pt I appreciate you doing the legwork on my rebuttal, it seemed pretty common sense to me and good to see that there is at least a reasonable stats-based case to back it up.

      While I agree that an optimal surrounding cast could optimize Mitch’s value, we are pretty far from having that cast. Nevertheless, $13mill AAV is good value for Mitch and we should offer it. If he turns it down, c’est la vie.

    26. I’ve said this a few times, but Sims rep out of college was a very unpolished offensive player, and he still looks significantly more polished than Mitch.

      Mitch gives a lot back when he sets poor screens. And a C setting a screen in the modern NBA happens at least once or twice every offensive possession.

      Mitch has the raw physical talent, but his fundamentals are so bad that I don’t think it’s possible to give him more of the offense. Sims came in and began diving to the rim with more success than Mitch had in the last 2 years. I don’t think it’s a PG limitation, it’s a Mitch limitation.

      Defensively, Sims & Noel seem no worse and look better sliding their feet on the perimeter and trapping ball handlers before recovering. I don’t have the data but Mitch seems to play more drop. It works for him but limits the defensive schemes.

    27. Nevertheless, $13mill AAV is good value for Mitch and we should offer it. If he turns it down, c’est la vie.

      That’s the point, though, right? They not only haven’t offered that, but according to Begley, they apparently weren’t beating their Noel offer to Mitch! That’s what my problem is with them.

      If Mitch wants crazy money, fine, let him go (even there, you should have traded him, but you know what I mean, I’m not begrudging them in general if he just gets a big offer).

      If they wanted to wait until they could free up cap space for another free agent and then re-sign Mitch with his miniscule cap hold, that is also fine.

      But no, they tried to extend him at roughly the MLE! That just doesn’t make any sense! Anything less than the max was a bad idea, but not even beating the MLE (which he would be able to get from any team) is just ludicrous.

    28. And for better or worse (definitely worse) this team is built around rim attackers RJ & Randle (or even Obi). Mitch doesn’t complement them at all.

      Noel & Sims aren’t great at hitting outside shots, but they have more impact without camping under the basket.

    29. As someone has pointed out before, Mitch scored twice as much as Sims and at higher efficiency. And I I like Sims.

      I wouldn’t mind Williams if we lose Mitch. Going into the season with Noel and Sims just doesn’t seem tenable. I mean, I don’t see us having a winning record next year anyway but his stats really jump off the page at 11.

    30. Owen: As someone has pointed out before, Mitch scored twice as much as Sims and at higher efficiency. And I I like Sims.

      Yeah, but this is missing the big picture. The question isn’t about how much Mitch or Sims scores, it’s about how much RJ or IQ score when they get a good screen versus a lazy screen.

      For the 100 or so possessions that Mitch doesn’t use, the Knicks benefit more from a good screen than from Mitch standing in the dunker’s spot waiting for an offensive rebound.

    31. Idk if this B/R trade idea is even possible, but I think it would be interesting:

      New York Knicks Receive: Gordon Hayward, No. 13 pick, No. 15 pick

      Charlotte Hornets Receive: Evan Fournier, Mitchell Robinson (sign-and-trade), Kemba Walker, No. 11 pick

      The two picks give us a lot more flexibility, but idk if Charlotte would go for it just to dump Hayward.

    32. I don’t really like that trade. We give up two useful players (Robinson and Fournier) and get back Hayward, whose usefulness is suspect, to move down in the draft. We do get an extra pick and get off of Walkers contract, but I don’t think it’s enough in return.

    33. I mean, look at it this way. If we traded Fournier straight up for Hayward that would not be a good deal. Then if we traded Mitch and Walker to change the number 11 pick for numbers thirteen and fifteen, that would also be a bad deal. The sum of two bad deals isn’t a good deal.

    34. Ingmarrrr:
      Is there a way to look at players’ median stats rather than averages? It feels like valuable information that’s not taken into account.

      Since you guys have to fight about something I’ll add that I think Mitche’s median numbers will demonstrate he’s really not that good against qualitycompetition.

      Ingmarr, once I got on my laptop it took about 5 minutes to figure out last season’s medians for Mitch. Here are the numbers:
      Statistic: REB AST BLK STL PF TO PTS
      Medians 8 0 1 0 3 1 8
      Averages 8.6 0.5 1.8 0.8 2.7 0.8 8.5

      What I did was go to the game log page for Mitch on ESPN.com. Then I selected the all the rows with data. This also highlighted some monthly summary rows. i copied this and pasted it into the first cell of a blank Excel spreadsheet. Excel is smart about the pasting so each number ended up in a different cell and the general structure of the grid was what it was supposed to be. I deleted the extraneous rows of monthly data. I checked the total points per game and the total points by calculating with the spreadsheet and they matched ESPN’s numbers, so i think I imported the data correctly. I wrote a formula to calculate medians and got the results above. I include the means from the ESPN data for comparison. None of the distributions seem particularly skewed, except maybe for blocks. But blocks should probably have a Poisson distribution and I am not sure what the median of such a distribution is so I don’t know if the difference is something of note.

    35. Knick fan not in NJ: Ingmarr, once I got on my laptop it took about 5 minutes to figure out last season’s medians for Mitch. Here are the numbers:
      Statistic:REBASTBLKSTLPFTOPTS
      Medians8010318
      Averages8.60.51.80.82.70.88.5

      What I did was go to the game log page for Mitch on ESPN.com. Then I selected the all the rows with data.This also highlighted some monthly summary rows. i copied this and pasted it into the first cell of a blank Excel spreadsheet.Excel is smart about the pasting so each number ended up in a different cell and the general structure of the grid was what it was supposed to be.I deleted the extraneous rows of monthly data.I checked the total points per game and the total points by calculating with the spreadsheet and they matched ESPN’s numbers, so i think I imported the data correctly. I wrote a formula to calculate medians and got the results above.I include the means from the ESPN data for comparison. None of the distributions seem particularly skewed, except maybe for blocks.But blocks should probably have a Poisson distribution and I am not sure what the median of such a distribution is so I don’t know if the difference is something of note.

      Thanks (I tried saying it yesterday already but for some reason my commented was moderated out). It seams like the medians do accentuate the the mediocracy of the numbers.

      Statistic: REB AST BLK STL PF TO PTS
      Medians 8 0 1 0 3 1 8

      This, in a contract year, is not some awesome player.

    36. I don’t think an awesome player signs for 12M to 15M AAV. We’re trying to assess if he’s worthy of this kind of money or not. I think he is, and i think it’d be good for the Knicks to try and keep our draft picks for a 2nd contract if they’re at least average to good. If the money is right, of course.

    37. Early Bird: Yeah, but this is missing the big picture. The question isn’t about how much Mitch or Sims scores, it’s about how much RJ or IQ score when they get a good screen versus a lazy screen.
      For the 100 or so possessions that Mitch doesn’t use, the Knicks benefit more from a good screen than from Mitch standing in the dunker’s spot waiting for an offensive rebound.

      Yeah, i agree he’s not very good at setting screens. And if you add that to the videos practicing 3Ps when what he should be doing is practicing FTs if he wants to be on the floor in the playoffs, that lowers the expectations that he’ll still improve a lot. But as i said, i don’t think the money is crazy to have a look if he can, and if he doesn’t we can always trade him. Players with eye popping blocks and league leaders in TS% have a market for sure.

    38. Brian Cronin: That’s the point, though, right? They not only haven’t offered that, but according to Begley, they apparently weren’t beating their Noel offer to Mitch! That’s what my problem is with them.

      I’m not sure what they offered and when. If that was true early on, I get it. If it is still true now, I don’t. If they are still low-balling and he walks, that’s on them. If they offer the 4/52 and he walks anyway, that’s on Mitch.

      But in any case, I’m definitely more ambivalent than some. To me, at the 4/52 he’s not a steal, not in today’s NBA.

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