Knicks Morning News (2022.01.10)

  • Game Preview: San Antonio Spurs at New York Knicks – Pounding The Rock
    [www.poundingtherock.com] — Monday, January 10, 2022 3:00:00 AM

    Game Preview: San Antonio Spurs at New York Knicks  Pounding The Rock

  • Spurs vs Knicks Betting Odds, Prediction, Pick, TV for Jan. 10 – Air Alamo
    [airalamo.com] — Sunday, January 9, 2022 10:04:25 PM

    Spurs vs Knicks Betting Odds, Prediction, Pick, TV for Jan. 10  Air Alamo

  • Julius Randle must now face the music with Knicks fans – New York Post
    [nypost.com] — Sunday, January 9, 2022 9:20:00 PM

    Julius Randle must now face the music with Knicks fans  New York Post Knicks’ Julius Randle fined $25K for use of profane language  NBA.comNew York Knicks’ Julius Randle ‘regrets’ thumbs-down gesture, remarks to fans  ESPNJulius Randle fined $25K for telling Knicks fans to ‘shut the f*** up’  Yahoo SportsJulius Randle, Knicks play egregious game in loss to Celtics  New York Daily NewsView Full Coverage on Google News

  • Tom Thibodeau confident in Knicks’ defense ? with stats to back it – New York Post
    [nypost.com] — Sunday, January 9, 2022 8:22:00 PM

    Tom Thibodeau confident in Knicks’ defense ? with stats to back it  New York Post

  • Pegasus World Cup Invitations Point To Knicks Go, Life Is Good Showdown – Horse Racing News – Paulick Report
    [www.paulickreport.com] — Sunday, January 9, 2022 5:14:00 PM

    Pegasus World Cup Invitations Point To Knicks Go, Life Is Good Showdown – Horse Racing News  Paulick Report

  • Sunday tab: Knicks Go, 23 other graded-stakes winners work – Horse Racing Nation
    [www.horseracingnation.com] — Sunday, January 9, 2022 3:30:00 PM

    Sunday tab: Knicks Go, 23 other graded-stakes winners work  Horse Racing Nation

  • Knicks’ Kemba Walker (knee) questionable on Monday – numberFire
    [www.numberfire.com] — Sunday, January 9, 2022 2:20:00 PM

    Knicks’ Kemba Walker (knee) questionable on Monday  numberFire

  • Not even the New York Knicks are immune to bad luck – Elite Sports NY
    [elitesportsny.com] — Sunday, January 9, 2022 12:50:45 PM

    Not even the New York Knicks are immune to bad luck  Elite Sports NY

  • Celtics 99, Knicks 75: “75 points in an NBA game. That’s Sad” – Posting and Toasting
    [www.postingandtoasting.com] — Sunday, January 9, 2022 11:52:31 AM

    Celtics 99, Knicks 75: “75 points in an NBA game. That’s Sad”  Posting and Toasting

  • What the Knicks need to be a legit contender this season – Empire Sports Media
    [empiresportsmedia.com] — Sunday, January 9, 2022 10:19:53 AM

    What the Knicks need to be a legit contender this season  Empire Sports Media

  • New York Knicks Stax | Sports | titusvilleherald.com – Titusville Herald
    [www.titusvilleherald.com] — Sunday, January 9, 2022 10:00:27 AM

    New York Knicks Stax | Sports | titusvilleherald.com  Titusville Herald

  • NBA Rumors: These 2 Trades Land Russell Westbrook With Knicks – NBA Analysis Network
    [www.nbaanalysis.net] — Sunday, January 9, 2022 9:38:07 AM

    NBA Rumors: These 2 Trades Land Russell Westbrook With Knicks  NBA Analysis Network

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    120 thoughts to “Knicks Morning News (2022.01.10)”

    1. Following up on last thread, there isn’t really a debate between RJ & Clarke right now. Clarke is kicking RJ’s ass.

    2. Okay, which one of you assholes is Joe Flynn?

      “I’ve seen some zagging on here lately, people saying “Hey Wally, actually not that bad!” But I can’t stand games I have to watch with him doing color.”

      “The Post is really dragging this thumbs down thing. My take is: who fucking cares?”

      Then, about Berman, says “inspired this idiotic Tweet after the first”

      But by far, the best line, about the Boston Garden: “the racism and funny accent factory in Massachusetts.”

    3. “the racism and funny accent factory in Massachusetts.”

      When I still lived in NYC, me and a buddy would take little road trips to Philly, Newark (when the Nets were still there) and one time to Boston to watch NBA games. We found we could oftentimes really good seats for far less than we could at MSG on stubhub and we’d do these little last minute road trips.

      One time we found courtside for The Celtics and Nuggets (this was when Melo was still a Nugget). My friend was a big Melo fan at the time (they had just had their WCF run), so we got the tickets. We weren’t dressed up in Nuggets gear or even actively cheering for them or anything. But we just found the vibe there to be so fucking hostile to anyone who wasn’t wearing Celtics gear. People say Philly fans are bad but whenever we went to a 76er’s game, they were actually hilarious. And while I’ve seen bad behavior at Knicks games too, I’ve seen plenty of times when fans from opposing teams were treated well. Oftentimes fun shit talking would happen but it never got over the line. But in Boston, the fans there are awful.

    4. Early Bird, interesting article. I thought these two points were good take-aways:

      “ShotQuality has the Knicks’ expected record this season at 21-19, giving them a two game bump on reality, which would be good for seventh place in the East. This doesn’t sound like much, and underscores the fine margins in the sardine-tin middle of the suddenly superior Eastern Conference, but would likely flip the perception of this season as some unequivocal failure on its head.”

      Not entirely sure that last bit is true, considering the pain of actually watching them flailing about, but this was especially interesting:

      “This perception would take an even bigger hit when factoring last season’s ShotQuality expected record of 29-48,,, Last season’s hot hand has made this season’s cold stretch feel far colder than it actually is, heightening the hangover, something like going from a sauna to an ice bath — which is disorientating and painful and may explain a profanity or two.”

    5. cybersoze:
      Anyone has any idea on how Leon will approach the trade deadline? Will he try to make noise going for a big trade (Simmons, Dame)? Will he go for one (or two) minor moves, like the trade for DRose last season (Ross, Gordon, Bledsoe)? Or will he stand pat?

      This front office doesn’t seem to think like this. They may conclude they decide they need a point guard, but they look for a point guard at the right price. Some front offices might think about who are good point guards and then pay whatever it takes to get one of them. I’m not sure our front office would do that. They would be more worried about paying a good price.

    6. That’s a good point about our shot quality. And we havent had Rose a bunch. I think you run this season 1000 times and we really are what we thought we were. But it’s been frustrating.

      The Grizzlies have done it right. They are young, deep, flexible. They have a blue chip star. They have good role players. For years we have talked about how they are the model for a patient rebuild and it’s definitely working.

      That said, if we get the 2nd pick in that draft instead of the 3rd a lot of people would be talking about how we rebuilt right.

      Although we probably would have done something dumb like taking RJ over Ja.

    7. It’s incredible the Hawks are this bad with the 2nd best offensive rating. Guess there won’t be DPOY buzz for Capela this year.

      I keep waiting for them to get their act together. They’ve had a lot of injuries and Covid issues, but they are playing like a team that doesn’t really care. We know they are “capable” of defending. Just ask Randle. :-)

    8. I remember that last year I kept thinking that Toronto was going to get it together and move up in the standings. Never happened. I have that same feeling about this year’s Hawks team.

      You were a year early on Toronto. I don’t think they have enough to contend yet, but I love the way Masai Ujiri team builds and Nurse coaches. They find very good role players, develop them into very good players, and get the most out of them.

    9. Owen: The Grizzlies have done it right. They are young, deep, flexible. They have a blue chip star. They have good role players. For years we have talked about how they are the model for a patient rebuild and it’s definitely working.

      Where’s djphan to tell me that Clarke’s .661 TS% isn’t all that good?

    10. Yeah, reopened that Clarke wound in the last thread. Clarke has worked out exactly as expected. He is the excellent role player we thought he would be, which is great to have, but not franchise altering.

      People who wanted to take a swing at a more multidimensional star with RJ, I think that’s probably still fine. And what the trade down possibilities were no one knows. But RJ stock is way down. You really have to believe he is a great defender to see any kind height to his ceiling at all.

    11. The Honorable Cock Jowles: Where’s djphan to tell me that Clarke’s .661 TS% isn’t all that good?

      You guys aren’t factoring in RJ’s “flashes.” Those count for a lot more than a large body of statistics. And that is factorial.

    12. @Raven, the article is more food for thought because I thought the board would enjoy a new take. I have no strong opinion on it one way or another. I agree, the 2 game differential is kinda silly to make the crux of the article as it’s well within the margin of error. The article should have focused more on your second point, the horrible SQ from last year.

      Personally, I think the SQ from last year is so low because (1) the ISM and (2) Randle routinely hit turnaround midrange jumpers at elite level.

      There’s a lot of fluff in the article, but I was happy to read some statistical analysis on the Knicks season so far. I’d say the lack of C&S jumpers is symptomatic of an inability to penetrate and draw defenders, i.e., we don’t have a PG. Also, whatever invisible force keeps Fournier away from the basket, maybe the same one that keeps him away from rebounds? We need CERN and the Hadron Collider on this.

    13. The Grizzlies just keep getting production from everywhere, guys like Tillman, Konchar, Clarke, Tyus Jones, they just have a full roster of productive players. Of course we all know that wouldn’t do much at the end of the day without a 6 BPM kind of guy in Morant leading the charge, but they got lucky once in the lottery and did all the right steps towards putting exactly the team he needs around him. Plus a lot of people hated when they traded Valanciunas for Adams and now Adams leads the league in offensive rebounding and has been huge for them.

    14. @ Strat,

      I think the telling part of RAPM is that RJ ranks below 510th in 2 of his 3 seasons. 510 may seem arbitrary, but I picked it because there’s 30 NBA teams & 17 roster spots including 2-ways for 510 players in the NBA. RJ Barrett in 2 of his 3 seasons doesn’t deserve a 2-way contract on any NBA team.

      FWIW, RJ ranked 509th in Luck Adjusted RAPM as a rookie so by that number he qualifies as the 2nd worst 2-way contract in the NBA.

      I’m never sure how much faith to put into LA-RAPM. But looking at those numbers, RJ drops further down and Clarke rises higher. Clarke is perfectly cromulent as a role player, RJ is unplayable.

      I hope RJ turns it around. I have his jersey in the mail. He’s still young, but he’s been atrocious so far.

    15. Would you guys trade RJ for Clarke? I sure wouldn’t. In my view, one has a lot of potential, although i know he might not reach it. But he’s super young (21) and can still do it. The other might be already playing at his ceiling, he’s 25.

    16. Kind of unfair to revisit the Brandon Clarke vs. RJ argument today, a year ago we would have unanimously favored RJ. Isn’t that what some call recency bias?

      Also, Clarke is averaging 17 min. per game this year, 22 for his career. He’s never been asked to do as much as RJ (who granted is not responding, to put it mildly)

    17. I have been staunch in my belief that you let RJ run until it’s time to give him an extension. And at that point I will be a very firm no unless things change very radically.

    18. FWIW, I would like to see Barrett more as the primary ball handler while Randle sits on the bench. See if the kid can do more with the ball in his hands, which should suit him better, although it’s more desperation than anything else.

      A Ruru-esque glimmer of hope can be seen (the most hope RJ gives right now) in possessions he touches the ball for 6+ seconds. RJ has a 49.3 eFG% in those situations, possibly indicating he’s better off as an initiator holding the ball for longer. He’s only shooting 33% from 3 in those situations, so it’s not 3pt variance. He was terrible at it the previous 2 years and it’s only 15% of his possessions this year (I did say Ruru-esque), but that’s the best I can do for RJ fans. Really everything is handwaving and pointing to his age.

    19. RJ’s extension is for this summer already. I bet the Knicks offer less than he wants, something around 4/80M. Just like the Hawks did with Collins last season. Which he then followed with a very good season, to get near max money from the Hawks in the summer (5/125M). Next season we’ll get to know better what RJ’s value is, when he’ll be in a contract year.

    20. The end of Raiders-Chargers last night was one of the craziest things I’ve ever seen. It was like the prisoner’s dilemma.

    21. Early Bird: I would like to see Barrett more as the primary ball handler while Randle sits on the bench. See if the kid can do more with the ball in his hands, which should suit him better

      That’s exactly why i think we should trade Randle. But not “dump him” as team patience and continuity will automatically answer. Trade him for good assets. It can also be good for 2 more things, the STFU gate will not go away easily if he keeps playing like sh*t, and it’s likely that the shine from the all-star rep is still in effect (leading teams to give more assets for him).

    22. Deeefense!!: You were a year early on Toronto. I don’t think they have enough to contend yet, but I love the way Masai Ujiri team builds and Nurse coaches. They find very good role players, develop them into very good players, and get the most out of them.

      Also, this:

      “In his past six games, “Freddy All-Star” has posted these point totals: 31, 35, 33, 19, 37, and 32. That’s an average of 31.2 points He’s taking 22.3 shots per game during that span, including 13.2 tries from 3. These are bonkers numbers. And it’s not like he’s stopped doing the other stuff he’s known for: He’s still logging 6.7 assists and one turnover per game while playing tone-setting defense.”

    23. d-mar: Kind of unfair to revisit the Brandon Clarke vs. RJ argument today, a year ago we would have unanimously favored RJ. Isn’t that what some call recency bias?

      I’m asking for an “oops” post.

    24. On the Hawks topic from above (sorry, today is paste shit, I have nothing myself):

      “The Hawks have the league’s fourth-worst defensive rating.”

      But also this, which sounds an awful lot like another team we know:

      “What Atlanta has is a bunch of dudes who can handle the ball but not run the point. ”

      #FreeDeuce

    25. Early Bird: I think the telling part of RAPM is that RJ ranks below 510th in 2 of his 3 seasons. 510 may seem arbitrary, but I picked it because there’s 30 NBA teams & 17 roster spots including 2-ways for 510 players in the NBA. RJ Barrett in 2 of his 3 seasons doesn’t deserve a 2-way contract on any NBA team.

      I’m still firmly in the give RJ time to develop camp, but on any statistical measurement he’s not performing at a satisfactory level. What I like to do is try to understand if his role, the system, lineups, injuries, layoffs etc.. are having a negative/positive impact on his performance. I would argue they are having a net negative impact, but I can’t put a number on it. I would just say imo he’s not as bad as he looks statistically this year. So I’m not “too” down, but it has been difficult after initially thinking he was breaking out.

    26. Shams says we have expressed interest in both Myles Turner and Jerami Grant, though both seem to have a bunch of suitors. We’ve already talked around the Turner idea, and it makes sense if the cost is lower than I imagine it will be with so many teams in the mix. Does Grant make sense on a roster with Randle and/or Barrett?

    27. I always thought Jerami Grant was what would happen if Julius and RJ had a child together.

      I’m not sure that’s a good thing…

    28. I think Jerami Grant and Julius Randle would be the worst possible fit imaginable.

      Turner would be fine but probably would end up disgruntled at being asked to fill the same low usage role he has chafed at being in already.

      Upgrading our point guard position seems a better idea, as it has since Clyde left NYC.

    29. I think one thing that is interesting when thinking about last year and this year is yeah, take away that one win streak and we were a middling 500 team last year.

      But to me the difference is last year’s 500 team (before D Rose) played their asses off every night on defense and had one of the best defenses in the league). Then they added Derrick Rose and that little push was what helped propel the win streak. The foundation with the good defense, chemistry and effort was there and D Rose was the perfect addition bc he addressed a very specific need that team had and also he was super familiar with Thibs’ and his system, had Thibs trust, etc. So there wasn’t really an adjustment period that often happens when a trade occurs. He could just come off the bench for 20ish minutes a night and give us exactly what we needed.

      With this team, there doesn’t really seem to be a trade like that we could make to push this team to the next level. On paper they’re about as good as the 500 team last year but they’re good for a different reasons. Its less clear what one player could be added that would propel this team to a 10 game win streak. When you have a team that has really good defense but a simplistic offense, adding a good offensive bench piece like Rose can help the team easily.

    30. can’t wait for the 50 offseason threads full of people thinking “we shouldn’t give up on rj he’s only 22 we should sign him to a fair contract” is a sentence with semantic content

    31. That article is most useful for quantifying how quite frankly bad Randle’s process was last season. I am aware it describes the shot quality of the whole 2020-2021 team, but obviously that was disproportionately derived from the team’s highest usage player.

      I’ve been looking for a metric that speaks to the idea that it’s not wise to take 50% of your shots from the midrange (96th percentile among PFs, and 99th when it comes to the long midrange per cleaning the glass) even when they happen to go in for a season, and that one would seem to speak to it.

      What must be frustrating for Randle is his process is actually better this year. He’s slightly increased his at-rim frequency (still only good for the 19th percentile among PFs) and gone down to 38% of his total shots being in the midrange (still high enough for the 81st percentile). As we all know this hasn’t stopped him from being perhaps the least efficient high usage player in the NBA, which is not where you want to be–the food is bad and the portions are huge.

      Some regression from last season was expected, and I personally assumed the coaching staff/front office made decisions this offseason with the idea of getting Randle easier shots accordingly. I assumed these changes would go far beyond the minor ones he’s made and hoped they could more than offset the inevitable shooting regression. Needless to say that hasn’t happened at all.

      I have no idea how to divvy up the blame between Randle, Thibs, etc. but I am pretty sure the Randle we’ve seen is the Randle we’re gonna get if he doesn’t make his shot chart look more like that of the average PF.

    32. can’t wait for the 50 offseason threads full of people thinking “we shouldn’t give up on rj he’s only 22 we should sign him to a fair contract” is a sentence with semantic content

      Also, instead of tanking I would simply win all the trades.

      Turner is good enough that there are packages I could talk myself into being worth trading for him even though I don’t think we should be buyers. I see no point in trying to win the Grant bidding wars. He would make us better, but he’s just not good enough to trade assets for and then re-sign in a year.

    33. Neither Grant nor Turner would solve our actual biggest issues, so that’s a no for me. If we’re trading for anyone, it should be for a ball handler who can drive to the rim and create easier shots, so we can see Randle more diving to the basket on pick and roll, lobs for Mitch, kick outs to Fournier and Burks, etc. I’d still rather take a chance on Fox and hope he learns how to shoot than keep the ball on Randle’s hand and have a bad offense anyway.

    34. Does Grant play SF for us? We need some wings with length and he’s played a bit on the wing but mostly PF. The other option is Grant PF & Randle C, ship Mitch to DET. DET will definitely want some young assets for their process-ing.

      Grant may solve our offensive burden issues, which none of RJ, Fournier, or Kemba solved. Grant’s another player whose TS% has plummeted as he became a focal point for DET. Unsurprisingly, Grant gets few assisted 2p FGs .537 last year and .483 this year. Before DET, .727 % of his 2p FG were assisted. So he can play off the ball, and hasn’t been horrendous dominating it either (he’s been bad, but bad is an improvement for us).

      I won’t like the price, but if he fixes this shit show I’ll chance it. Advanced stats say he won’t.

    35. ptmilo:
      can’t wait for the 50 offseason threads full of people thinking“we shouldn’t give up on rj he’s only 22 we should sign him to a fair contract” is a sentence with semantic content

      You are better than this.

      He took a big a leap forward last year.

      To a large extent this year has been marred by stomach issues, Covid, layoffs and having no PG at all. Plus we are less than half way through the season.

      Obviously a lot depends on expectations. If you are thinking in terms of a franchise player or bust, you are going to be disappointed a LOT of the time. If you are thinking in terms of an all-star caliber player by the time he is 21-22 or you should give up and trade him, then you are going to give up on some future all stars and the team will be rebuilding until I’m long gone and you are the old retired curmudgeon on some forum.

    36. Obviously a lot depends on expectations. If you are thinking in terms of a franchise player or bust, you are going to be disappointed a LOT of the time. If you are thinking in terms of an all-star caliber player by the time he is 21-22 or you should give up and trade him, then you are going to give up on some future all stars and the team will be rebuilding until I’m long gone and you are the old retired curmudgeon on some forum.

      So what deal would you give him?

    37. thenoblefacehumper: Also, instead of tanking I would simply win all the trades.

      You don’t have to win them all. You just can’t do dumb as a rock stupid things like not signing Ball and then counting on Kemba and Rose to remain healthy without having another solid backup PG. It would also help if they focused on the player profile that gave them a winning season last year, but upgraded that profile. What won games for us last year was defense first and at least reasonable ball and player movement. We went from Bullock (who typically defended the opposition’s best wing player and moved great without the ball) to Fournier (who makes 3s some nights but does nothing on a lot of nights except watching whoever he is guarding blow right by him).

      It’s not about the plan and approach other than the more things you are open to the more chances you’ll have of getting what you need. It’s about the execution. Our execution sucked this off season.

    38. As much as I don’t think this team should be making trades to try to get better at this point, with Turner I can talk myself into the logic of it. A shooting C might be the thing that could unlock more efficient offense for both RJ and Randle and those are two of our most important big picture objectives. Plus there just are not that many teams in need of a C so the price might be reasonable and we can hopefully avoid getting into a bidding war with teams that actually stand to compete this year.

      Grant I don’t really get it. Slotting Grant in at the 3 with RJ, Randle and a C only exacerbates our lack of shooting and he can help a lot of the actually good teams who we should never be bidding against at this point.

    39. thenoblefacehumper: So what deal would you give him?

      How about waiting until the season is over?

      He played in 33 games this season. Some of those are either off a long layoff, playing while less than 100%, and/or playing without a PG. The latter is clearly impacting multiple players and the team overall negatively. Believe me, that kind of sample size is not something to draw any firm conclusions about.

      This is my position.

      His aggregate performance this year has been disappointing so far, but it comes with come caveats, and it’s too soon to tell how he’ll perform when 100% healthy and Kemba/Rose are playing again. It’s also way to soon to know what his ultimate peak is likely to be other than he’s unlikely to become a franchise caliber player. But all-star is still on the table if you look at year 1, the progress from year 1 to year 2, and understand how young he is and that there are caveats for this year not continuing an up trend. So be patient, hope for the best, evaluate ALL your options “when required”, and do the one that benefits the team short and long term the most.

    40. Deeefense!!: You are better than this.

      But it’s actually He is better than this.

      But in fact he’s not. He sucks. And blaming it on no point guard suggests that you think Elf is the answer.

      Sure, no point guard is not helping RJ achieve his platonic ideal. But I think that particular influence has been pretty flat line during his career.

      Which leaves the stomach thing, I guess…

    41. You are better than this.

      i could french kiss you with omicron and you still wouldn’t get it.

      that post was not about rj barrett. it was about people who like to move their lips without talking so they can lecture imaginary pigeons. imagine the season ended today. what is your highest & best contract offer to rj during the limited summer extension window? you can assume for the purposes of this question that your best trade offer for him is a lottery protected 2024 first and goga bitadze.

    42. i could french kiss you with omicron and you still wouldn’t get it.

      that post was not about rj barrett. it was about people who like to move their lips without talking so they can lecture imaginary pigeons. imagine the season ended today. what is your highest best contract offer to rj during the limited summer extension window? you can assume for the purposes of this question that your best trade offer for him is a lottery protected 2024 first and goga bitadze.

      I know exactly what you were saying and think it’s absolutely ridiculous to think you can know what the correct thing to do is or how much a reasonable offer would be based on 33 games marred by Covid, stomach issues, and playing on a team with no PG. 33 games is barely enough under normal conditions.

      Sometimes you just have to say, “I don’t know what’s fair yet”, but I know enough to know that if I gave up now I’d be an idiot regardless of which way it ultimately works out . Knowing that you don’t know yet is often smarter being arrogant and thinking you do.

    43. I still like the idea of Turner but it would cost assets that would be better used to acquire the PG we have been looking 20 years for.

    44. could we see arcidiacono get some burn?… maybe he is enough of a facilitator… maybe thats all we need right now… is a pass first player that will keep the defense honest…

      im fine for giving deuce more minutes… this is def. eye test but some of these guys are like lightning out there… deuce’s moves dont seem to get the defender off balance… hes fast and quick and an athlete… but its almost as if he makes a move so quickly and ends up back in the same spot with out getting any closer to the basket… he’s not breaking down the first layer of defense… by contrast, a derrick rose has less cadence to his game/moves… he draws defenders in directions… he lulls you one way, and bursts the other… some of these young guys just try to hit you with razzle dazzle but dont go anywhere… quickly is shifty like rose but he doesnt seem strong enough to keep going, he gets bumped off his move a bit and then the defense recovers…

    45. Further to the Myles Turner discussion:

      There is a glaring contradiction at the heart of Thibs’ basketball philosophy:

      He wants his guards to drive the ball, but he insists on having a rim protector on the court for defense. That means the lane is always clogged (see the Celtics game, where Williams single-handle turned us into a bad jump-shooting team.)

      The only way out is to give Thibs a rim protector who can stretch the floor.

    46. “I know exactly what you were saying ”

      I’m the one for the last 5-10 years has been stressing that one of the downsides of rebuilding through the draft when you are drafting 18-19 years old players is that you are often faced with a decision to extend or trade long before you know what the fair value of the player actually is. You are typically forced to pay a premium relative to his current value because of the expected improvement from early 20s into mid 20s. If you are unwilling to do that you have to trade him.

      Welcome to the real world for the second time with RJ (KP being the first time).

      You can pay the premium and potentially get stuck with a bad contract for number of years.

      You can trade him and watch him become an important piece on a contender down the line.

      You can keep trading them until you get a sure fire max player from the draft. Then you risk dying of old age waiting to both hit the lottery and get the right player.

      Of course you could win the lottery, get the sure fire player, and find out he likes to eat too much, is injury prone, and doesn’t want to play for you.

      When faced with a situation like KP, RJ, Zion and many other young players you are gambling on an unknowable future. All you can do is weigh the information you have and estimate how likely that player is to work hard, get better, stay healthy, and reach a higher level. There is no correct value or tight range like there is with established veterans. At best, there’s a broad range and gambling involved. Get used to it because drafting is part of and should be part of our long term plan.

    47. Bruno Almeida: If we’re trading for anyone, it should be for a ball handler who can drive to the rim and create easier shots, so we can see Randle more diving to the basket on pick and roll, lobs for Mitch, kick outs to Fournier and Burks, etc.

      Besides Fox, is there any other option for us? Dejounte Murray? Brunson? Monte Morris (if Jamal Murray gets healthy)? Any other? What would it take to make a trade like this?

    48. Sometimes you just have to say, “I don’t know what’s fair yet”, but I know enough to know that if I gave up now I’d be an idiot regardless of which way it ultimately works out . Knowing that you don’t know yet is often smarter being arrogant and thinking you do.

      He’s not saying he knows anything. He’s saying “I have no idea what contract we should offer him, but we shouldn’t give up on him” is a take that adds nothing to the conversation. There is no We Should Give Up on RJ Barrett Caucus here, but what “not giving up” looks like is very much up in the air.

      Haranguing people because for “giving up” on him without saying what you would do just adds you being kind of a dick to the existing lack of a substance.

    49. I’m the one for the last 5-10 years has been stressing that one of the downsides of rebuilding through the draft when you are drafting 18-19 years old players is that you are often faced with a decision to extend or trade long before you know what the fair value of the player actually is.

      You didn’t answer this when you were asked multiple times the other day, so I’ll try again:

      What are the best examples of a player’s original team not thinking he was worth investing in after 3-4 seasons, and then that player proceeding to make them look foolish?

      I understand you have your reasons, or should I say les raisons, for insisting that players commonly suck for an incredibly long time to start their careers and then really turn it on around year 7 or whatever, but it just doesn’t seem like it happens all that much to me.

    50. KevinR:
      I still like the idea of Turner but it would cost assets that would be better used to acquire the PG we have been looking 20 years for.

      I like the Turner fit better because he can stretch the floor a lot more than Nerlens or Mitch. That might help Randle and RJ. I just don’t see what we have that gets the job done unless they are going to trade both Turner and Sabonis and start from zero . If they don’t really like the Turner/Sabonis fit, I can’t see how they would like the Mitch/Sabonis fit. If Mitch isn’t part of the deal, who is?

      Also, I get the feeling that Turner is a bit of a “me first” malcontent. Even if he’s a better fit in NY, he may start grumbling watching Randle, Kemba, Rose, Fournier and RJ take all the shots.

    51. thenoblefacehumper:
      What are the best examples of a player’s original team not thinking he was worth investing in after 3-4 seasons, and then that player proceeding to make them look foolish?

      and then really turn it on around year 7 or whateve

      A lot of players improve until their mid to late 20s and sometimes gain valuable experience that helps with winning beyond that. IMO, improvement (and decline) has to be part of the thinking when you value players because their skills are not static. It’s like the stock market. You weigh all the pluses and minuses and come up with a price range. Sometimes you will be wrong, but if you project better than your peers you add value.

      It depends on what your standard for success is.

      If you overpay a guy, but he at least turns out to be a key piece on a contender, is that a failure or a success?

      On this forum it’s probably counted as a failure because of the heavy weight put on the salary relative to production vs. actually putting yourself into a position to win and potentially attract other players.

      KP is obviously overpaid and a big risk, but if Dallas gets healthy they are in a position to make some noise over the next few years and become serious contenders with 1 more player. By then he’ll be up for renewal anyway. It’s wasn’t a perfect signing, but I bet they’d do it again. There were no other players of his caliber that wanted to go to Dallas.

      Hardaway Jr is overpaid but it was an idiotic to sign him to that contract. He’s not a key piece and that deal made it harder for them to get what they need.

    52. I’m the one for the last 5-10 years has been stressing that one of the downsides of rebuilding through the draft when you are drafting 18-19 years old players is that you are often faced with a decision to extend or trade long before you know what the fair value of the player actually is.

      You’re consistent with this, Strat, but it’s a cop out of an answer. Generally you’re hoping to find Ja Morants when you’re rebuilding through the draft and not RJ Barretts. The first four years of a player’s career is actually quite predictive of what kind of player they are going to be in the long run.

      Look at the leaders in BPM right now– most of the players in the top 20 were guys who were really, really good on their rookie contracts. I don’t see a single player on that list who sucked throughout the duration of his rookie contract. You make it seem like it happens all the time.

      You might see some occasional players like Andrew Wiggins, who sucked throughout his rookie deal, but is now a 1.8 BPM player. I’m sure there are other examples of that of guys who somewhat redeemed themselves later in their careers. But really the idea is not to pay Andrew Wiggins big bucks on the hopes that he has a 1.8 BPM season someday. You’re hoping to find real difference makers.

      RJ Barrett does not look like a difference maker to me, he looks like a guy who has mostly stunk during his rookie contract and who is a very questionable investment. He looks, honestly, a lot like Andrew Wiggins, who is currently getting paid $32M AAV for his contributions.

    53. thenoblefacehumper: Haranguing people because for “giving up” on him without saying what you would do just adds you being kind of a dick to the existing lack of a substance.

      The tone of the forum has been anti RJ for quite awhile and trades have been mentioned. I’ve been trying to make the case for why imo it’s ridiculous to put too much weight on this season at this point through all of it. And I’ve made it very clear what I would do. I would do nothing because imo doing something now or even soon would be premature and idiotic. I’m not being a dick, I’m telling to you panicking would be stupid.

    54. I’d rather play the season with this group, if they gel good if they don’t lottery is a good thing.

      Anyway, on the trade rumors,
      a rim protector that can (sometimes) stretch the floor makes sense,
      an athletic PG that can break defense but is a bad shooter can make a little of sense,
      a non shooting power forward (who let a winning team because want to be used more on offense) with a 27% usage that plays exactly the role of our All-Star first option makes no sense.

      I think every trade would cost us Obi, and while I’d be happy for the kid at the same time I’d be very sad for our team.

    55. Re: RJ Barrett
      I’m in the 4/88-4/90 range.
      I’d like to watch him more with the ball or simply in a better offensive environment just to have a better grasp of his value.

    56. You’re consistent with this, Strat, but it’s a cop out of an answer. Generally you’re hoping to find Ja Morants when you’re rebuilding through the draft and not RJ Barretts. The first four years of a player’s career is actually quite predictive of what kind of player they are going to be in the long run.

      We all know this, but you are missing my main point.

      It’s extremely difficult to find the Ja Morants because you have to practically win the lottery (no easy task), it has to contain that player, and you have to pick the right one. If you keep rejecting the KPs, RJs, Wiggins etc.. you may wind up rebuilding for decades.

      No one is saying that you should give out horrible contracts, but you have to build improvement into your thinking as part of the valuation when you are thinking about extending a young player. Some of those guys in that category you may want to keep even though you are paying a premium on current production and others you may reject.

      My only point about RJ is that he got a lot better in year 2 than year 1 and IMO this year is still only half way done and has some caveats. So that should be part of the thinking before panicking or demanding an exact salary that’s fair. No one knows what’s fair yet. Just don’t panic sell.

    57. If you overpay a guy, but he at least turns out to be a key piece on a contender, is that a failure or a success?

      On this forum it’s probably counted as a failure because of the heavy weight put on the salary relative to production vs. actually putting yourself into a position to win and potentially attract other players.

      I am 99% sure I speak for everyone here when I say if we overpaid someone who turned out to be a key piece on a contender, we would be absolutely elated, because we would be a contender.

      The obvious problem is overpaying players makes it harder to be a contender. If we give RJ $20M AAV and he continues to suck, that’s a significant chunk of the cap we can’t spend on good players.

      And I’ve made it very clear what I would do. I would do nothing

      Lol.

      Here’s the deal, in a few months we have the option to extend RJ Barrett. It’s very easy to say “I would simply hope he plays extremely well for the rest of the season, and then extend him to some contract I won’t specify.” It just doesn’t add anything to the conversation.

      No one wants to “give up” on him, whatever that means. It seems like you’re defining it as “expressing skepticism about his ceiling on a message board.” Needless to say, doing that does not mean you want to cut him for an extra roster spot or something.

    58. Whether the Knicks overpay RJ Barrett by a few million per year is just an incredibly boring topic. More importantly than it being boring, it literally doesn’t matter to anything. If there ever comes a time when a free agent actually wants to come here, rather than Knicks fans spending yet another decade imagining such, it’s extremely easy to cobble together the extra 10 million or whatever in cap space. Teams who actually do sign premium free agents do the cobbling thing like all the time. Routinely.

      The savings aren’t fungible and convertible into a similar asset in the marketplace. Never have been, never will be. Anyone who pretends they are, or acts as if they are, doesn’t know a thing about the association.

    59. Deefense, I don’t want to give up on RJ too and I think we could extend him for a fair price right now but I do want to point out that you’re making A LOT of excuses for RJ this season while not giving any leeway to Randle.

      He’s had a new baby. His “help” was Fournier who sucks. Mitch can’t space the floor at all for him. Kemba is probably the worst defensive PG in the league. Randle also had covid and plays some of the most minutes in the NBA. Yeah, he is older but still…there are reasons why he’s had a down year but you don’t give him a pass on anything.

    60. Is doing nothing in this case letting RJ walk as a FA after next season? Because doing nothing seemingly means we don’t offer him an extension this year or a contract next year, as either one would be doing something.

      Is RJ Barrett going to be worth Evan Fournier’s $18M someday? I’d be pleasantly surprised if he matures into the player Fournier is supposed to be at this point.

      Is RJ worth the max? Absolutely not.

      Is RJ worth $20M? $25M? I’d consider giving it to him, only because that’s what a #3 pick likely goes for. That’s less than what Randle makes and isn’t too crazy in the scheme of things. It’s less a reflection of his value and more that I don’t believe this franchise will do anything meaningful over the course of his extension, so why not.

      Or do we just kick the can down the road and wait for RFA after next season? And if he has one good contract year what do we sign him for? If he has another year like this, what do we sign him for?

    61. RJ has had a bad year. After showing some promise in year 2 he has played for the most part fairly poorly and had one truly horrific stretch. Because of this, this summer is probably not going to be the time to extend him. He is a distressed asset and so we would pay him as one and I would offer him 4 years $50 million which he would decline and he would ask for a max extension which of course I would decline. I think because of this bad year he will play out his contract and then look for a new deal and next year will have a huge impact on what he is worth so speculating now isn’t particularly helpful since we don’t know how he will play next season.

    62. somewhere today there is a long retired window clerk of the glen cove road otb recounting the tale of the loquacious regular who for eleven years rolled in like clockwork every tuesday and thursday evening bearing several spiral bound notebooks and a toaster-sized cassette recorder and once, raising a not insubstantial murmur among the reliably disinterested gaggle of regulars, nearly placed a bet

    63. If there ever comes a time when a free agent actually wants to come here, rather than Knicks fans spending yet another decade imagining such, it’s extremely easy to cobble together the extra 10 million or whatever in cap space. Teams who actually do sign premium free agents do the cobbling thing like all the time. Routinely.

      The savings aren’t fungible and convertible into a similar asset in the marketplace. Never have been, never will be. Anyone who pretends they are, or acts as if they are, doesn’t know a thing about the association.

      If a free agent wants to come here, it will be because we’re good. If we pay RJ Barrett $25M a year and he continues to be bad, we almost certainly won’t be good, because we’re already not good with him making $8M a year.

      People aren’t worried that the contract will make us unable to sign a free agent who is otherwise ready to bleed the orange and blue. They’re worried that the contract will be bad value and the result of that will be we’re a bad team and thus an unattractive destination.

    64. The pro-RJ argument puts a lot of weight behind last year’s 3pt shooting. We all know 3pt shooting is a noisy statistic. I don’t see why we should give much credence to RJ’s shooting from last year rather than his shooting as a rookie, this year, and in college.

      RJ shot .665 from the FT line in college. He’s shooting .684 for his NBA career. That’s not the profile of a 40% 3pt shooter.

    65. thenoblefacehumper: No one wants to “give up” on him, whatever that means. It seems like you’re defining it as “expressing skepticism about his ceiling on a message board.” Needless to say, doing that does not mean you want to cut him for an extra roster spot or something.

      People are clearly expressing skepticism about him. All I am doing is trying to temper the skepticism by pointing out that several factors have very likely contributed to his weak play this season.

      I am 99% sure I speak for everyone here when I say if we overpaid someone who turned out to be a key piece on a contender, we would be absolutely elated, because we would be a contender.

      You won’t even admit that KP is a much improved player despite another major surgery (which was no certainty when we gave up on him), that we lost that trade, and that he’s a key piece on Dallas despite everything that could go wrong going wrong more than once.

    66. so speculating now isn’t particularly helpful since we don’t know how he will play next season.

      what to offer rj on an extension in a few months is a decision the knicks will actually have to make. that makes this an absolute olympic champion of particular helpfulness amid competing knickerblogger topic hopefuls, ranging from whether frank ntilikina is injured or lost his rotation spot with the mavericks to whether thibs should be blamed for julius randle sucking or julius randle should be blamed for thibs sucking

    67. thenoblefacehumper: People aren’t worried that the contract will make us unable to sign a free agent who is otherwise ready to bleed the orange and blue. They’re worried that the contract will be bad value and the result of that will be we’re a bad team and thus an unattractive destination.

      Everybody should be worried about that, but they should also understand that decisions like this come with the territory when you draft adolescents and you have to build potential improvement into the thinking and not just look at current production.

      Is it so hard to say, “I get the point you have been making about the downsides of trying to value these young guys. This is risky and you are right that we have to least project probable improvement/decline and the details of this season into this tough decision”.

    68. thenoblefacehumper: If a free agent wants to come here, it will be because we’re good. If we pay RJ Barrett $25M a year and he continues to be bad, we almost certainly won’t be good, because we’re already not good with him making $8M a year.

      People aren’t worried that the contract will make us unable to sign a free agent who is otherwise ready to bleed the orange and blue. They’re worried that the contract will be bad value and the result of that will be we’re a bad team and thus an unattractive destination.

      I get that, and that’s entirely overblown too. The Knicks aren’t bad because they don’t have bad contracts. Few teams are. Nor are the Knicks bad because their contracts have crowded out money they could have spent on better players. That’s the “fungibility fallacy.” It’s a very imperfect marketplace.

    69. ptmilo:
      so speculating now isn’t particularly helpful since we don’t know how he will play next season.

      what to offer rj on an extension in a few months is a decision the knicks will actually have to make.that makes this an absolute olympic champion of particular helpfulness amid competing knickerblogger topic hopefuls, ranging from whether frank ntilikina is injured or lost his rotation spot with the mavericks to whether thibs should be blamed for julius randle sucking or julius randle should be blamed for things sucking

      For the 100th time.

      The season is only half way over.
      RJ has played in only 33 games.
      RJ was playing through sickness in some of the games.
      RJ was laid off from Covid.
      RJ is trying to drive into the paint to create something (and often getting blocked) instead of shooting open shots off the PG’s penetration.

      NEITHER THE KNICKS, YOU OR I HAS TO MAKE THS DECISION TODAY. IT’S A CRITICAL DECSION, BUT WE HAVE 42 GAMES TO GO TO CLARIFY THE SITUATION.

    70. Complaining and kvetching about the “overpayment” of people like Porzingis and Barrett and Wiggins appears to be, along with overvaluing the TS% of offensively limited bigs, the Knickerblogger managerial sweet spot.

      It can only be said again that the object of the sport isn’t to maximize the wins to dollars ratio and the object of the sport isn’t to never have a bad or meh contract on your books.

    71. Everybody should be worried about that, but they should also understand that decisions like this come with the territory when you draft adolescents and you have to build potential improvement into the thinking and not just look at current production.

      Of course you build potential improvement into the thinking. I don’t think anybody is suggesting that RJ is never gonna get better than this.

      Thing is, when you’re already good at age 21, you’re a lot more likely to be good at age 26 than a guy who sucked at age 21. This is not really galaxy brain level stuff to figure out.

    72. It can only be said again that the object of the sport isn’t to maximize the wins to dollars ratio and the object of the sport isn’t to never have a bad or meh contract on your books.

      It’s a salary cap league. You get a finite number of dollars to spend. The good teams win because they get guys who outperform their contracts. The shitty teams are shitty because they have guys who underperform their contracts.

      So yes, the object of the sport IS to maximize the wins to dollars ratio. What the fuck else is there, actually?

    73. Not to break away from this thrilling RJ discussion that now has Strat shouting in all-caps (shhh), but this just came in. I haven’t really been paying attention to record, but if someone had asked me I’d have guessed the last 12 games we’ve gone 4-8 or maybe 3-9.

      “New York has managed to go 7-5 in its past 12 games despite a rash of COVID-19 cases and injuries…”

      Who knew.

    74. What to offer RJ next summer is easy. You offer him nothing or you lowball him because he isn’t a free agent until the summer after next and will be restricted anyway. If you want a number then 4 years $50 million is probably the most I’d offer. It’s not nearly enough but anything more would be stupid. It is actually in both his and our best interest to wait and not extend him.

      Unless RJ has a huge finish to this season I very much doubt there will be much extension talk. He has been too inconsistent to deserve a big payday but has too much pedigree and potential, at least in his mind, to accept a small one. So I think we will wait until the last possible moment to make a move.

    75. thenoblefacehumper: I am 99% sure I speak for everyone here when I say if we overpaid someone who turned out to be a key piece on a contender, we would be absolutely elated, because we would be a contender.

      LOL! This quote gets my vote for comment of the day. :D

    76. The pro-RJ argument puts a lot of weight behind last year’s 3pt shooting. We all know 3pt shooting is a noisy statistic. I don’t see why we should give much credence to RJ’s shooting from last year rather than his shooting as a rookie, this year, and in college.

      RJ shot .665 from the FT line in college. He’s shooting .684 for his NBA career. That’s not the profile of a 40% 3pt shooter.

      I don’t think he’s anything close to a 40% 3 point shooter unless he’s standing in the corner and they are occasionally giving him wide open looks because they don’t respect him. Those days are gone. It seems to me, he’s shooting more tough 3s this year on top of some reversion to the mean (whatever his mean actually is). But he should get better over time even if it’s partly just shot selection.

    77. So yes, the object of the sport IS to maximize the wins to dollars ratio. What the fuck else is there, actually?

      Maximizing wins. Dollars are irrelevant.

      It’s a salary cap league. You get a finite number of dollars to spend.

      It’s a soft cap league and you absolutely, positively do not get a finite number of dollars to spend.

    78. All you have to do is Collins/Markkanen him. This isn’t even a topic at this point, beyond a few people who want to turn the conversation to their bugaboos and their obsessions.

    79. You won’t even admit that KP is a much improved player despite another major surgery (which was no certainty when we gave up on him), that we lost that trade, and that he’s a key piece on Dallas despite everything that could go wrong going wrong more than once.

      Kristaps Porzingis has a TS+ of 101 despite playing primarily as a center, has played in 26/40 games this year, and is widely regarded as a negative asset.

      Having said all of that, I have no idea what this has to do with RJ Barrett’s extension, or the question of how common it is for a player to be bad for 4 seasons and then become good.

      Is it so hard to say, “I get the point you have been making about the downsides of trying to value these young guys. This is risky and you are right that we have to least project probable improvement/decline and the details of this season into this tough decision”.

      You are not making a point. You are saying it is somehow untoward to weigh in on RJ Barrett’s next contract even though that is a real decision that is going to have to be made.

      You can talk all you want about how annoying you think it is that the Knicks will have to make that decision before RJ has played 15 seasons or something, but since, again, they will indeed have to make that decision, it seems worth discussing.

      I get that, and that’s entirely overblown too. The Knicks aren’t bad because they don’t have bad contracts. Few teams are. Nor are the Knicks bad because their contracts have crowded out money they could have spent on better players. That’s the “fungibility fallacy.” It’s a very imperfect marketplace.

      Nonsense. I mean The Bulls are spending ~$45M AAV on DeMar DeRozan and Lonzo Ball. The Knicks are spending ~$45M AAV on Evan Fournier, Nerlens Noel, and Julius Randle. Do these allocations make no difference in the respective quality of the teams?

    80. JK47: Of course you build potential improvement into the thinking. I don’t think anybody is suggesting that RJ is never gonna get better than this.

      Thing is, when you’re already good at age 21, you’re a lot more likely to be good at age 26 than a guy who sucked at age 21. This is not really galaxy brain level stuff to figure out.

      I have no problem with any of this. We are on the same page.

      Will you now concede that he improved from year 1 to 2, has only played 33 games this year, played through sickness for a few of them, had Covid, played without a real PG for a bunch of games, and that may be clouding our ability to judge where his true production level is now?

      If so, we are done and can talk about playing lead and modes. :-)

    81. Lol.

      That got an actual spittake. Dangerous to drink water and read PTMilo’s posts.

      I am perfectly happy to offer RJ 4×10. Sounds great.

    82. Between Strat’s “there should be a total ban on discussion of RJ’s next contract because it makes me mad” and E’s “it actually doesn’t matter at all what you pay players in a league with a salary cap” today is a low point for our resident contrarians

    83. thenoblefacehumper: I mean The Bulls are spending ~$45M AAV on DeMar DeRozan and Lonzo Ball. The Knicks are spending ~$45M AAV on Evan Fournier, Nerlens Noel, and Julius Randle. Do these allocations make no difference in the respective quality of the teams?

        

      That’s not what the term means. It means you can’t save $20 million and immediately go out and spend it on anything you want. (If, for example, we were talking about the yacht market, you could.)

      The fact that the Knicks had $45 million and had to spend it on dreck rather than what the Bulls spent it on perfectly exemplifies the definition.

    84. thenoblefacehumper: You are not making a point. You are saying it is somehow untoward to weigh in on RJ Barrett’s next contract even though that is a real decision that is going to have to be made.

      It won’t have to be made for a year and a half and even then it won’t be that big a decision. There’s a faction here who kind of goofily thinks they “won” the Porzingis max “argument” and they’re simply trying to “regain” the “glory” they got from that.

      The Knicks have far deeper issues than RJ Barrett and his contract extension.

    85. I mean, its fine for the warriors to be overpaying Wiggins. They have Steph and Dray and Klay. If you overpay for a player like Wiggins, then its super easy to build a contender. Just also have one of best point guards of all time and the best 3 point shooting backcourt in the history of the NBA and it won’t matter how much wiggins is paid.

    86. Kristaps Porzingis has a TS+ of 101 despite playing primarily as a center, has played in 26/40 games this year, and is widely regarded as a negative asset.

      I already conceded he’s overpaid. I claimed he’s improved, is a key piece on that team, and they can make some noise if they stay healthy. But for the record.

      1. Even models like BPM and WS/48 are capturing his slow steady improvement. Take a look.
      2. He’s playing PF this year, not C.
      3. I guess you think he’s going to keep shooting 28% from 3 like he is so far this year. So he’s putting up those more broadly improved stats over time despite being dreadful in one category this year.

    87. thenoblefacehumper:
      Between Strat’s “there should be a total ban on discussion of RJ’s next contract because it makes me mad” and E’s “it actually doesn’t matter at all what you pay players in a league with a salary cap” today is a low point for our resident contrarians

      When you get to the part where they’re inventing things you “said,” the discussion has pretty much tailed off.

    88. Remember the year the Knicks had enough cap room for Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving and couldn’t spend it on Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving caliber players because there weren’t any in the market and instead spent it on Julius Randle, Bobby Portis, Elfrid Payton, Marcus Morris and other assorted dreck?

      That right there is what we call an “imperfect marketplace.” That’s been the association veteran free agent market for like … forever.

      For avid fans of the New York Knicks, of all teams, not to understand this is … rather stunning.

    89. thenoblefacehumper:
      Between Strat’s “there should be a total ban on discussion of RJ’s next contract because it makes me mad” and E’s “it actually doesn’t matter at all what you pay players in a league with a salary cap” today is a low point for our resident contrarians

      Red Herring alert.

      I never ever said I had a problem discussing it.

      What I am saying is that if we are going to discuss it, at least be aware that the negativity some people are feeling (myself included) based on his stats this year should be tempered by several factors that have been working against him and that I think it’s crazy to put a price on him until we see the second half of the season because of that.

    90. swiftandabundant:
      I mean, its fine for the warriors to be overpaying Wiggins. They have Steph and Dray and Klay. If you overpay for a player like Wiggins, then its super easy to build a contender. Just also have one of best point guards of all time and the best 3 point shooting backcourt in the history of the NBA and it won’t matter how much wiggins is paid.

      I agree.

      Wiggins is a tough one to justify, but it was understandable even if I may not have done it. He improved year 1 to year 2, but didn’t follow through in year 3. But at the time, and even now, most coaches and players think he’s immensely talented but doesn’t have the passion or work ethic for the game to reach his potential. They bet on maturity and lost, but maybe he’s coming around now.

    91. Remember the year the Knicks had enough cap room for Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving and couldn’t spend it on Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving caliber players because there weren’t any in the market and instead spent it on Julius Randle, Bobby Portis, Elfrid Payton, Marcus Morris and other assorted dreck?

      That they instead spent it on those players and got piss poor results kind of contradicts your point that it doesn’t matter if you pay bad players a lot of money, no?

      No one thinks that if the Knicks don’t pay Barrett, there will be some elite player waiting to take that money instead. The debate is whether paying Barrett is a move that will make it more or less likely the Knicks contend in the near future. Your retort seems to be “it will have no impact,” which is contradicted by the fact that having unproductive players on your payroll at very high AAV figures seems to have a pretty damn good correlation with the “makes it less likely” outcome.

      If the Suns had extended Dragan Bender after his rookie deal even though he was bad, they probably wouldn’t have been able to trade for Chris Paul. Things matter in the NBA!

      What I am saying is that if we are going to discuss it, at least be aware that the negativity that’s coming from his stats this year should be tempered by several factors that have been working against him and that I think it’s crazy to put a price on him until we see the second half of the season because of that.

      Ok. RJ’s stats might be better by the end of the season. They also might not.

      Now can we discuss his contract?

    92. E, all merc’d out: Maximizing wins.Dollars are irrelevant.

      It’s a soft cap league and you absolutely, positively do not get a finite number of dollars to spend.

      Oh good, there’s no finite number. Cool. No team has ever gotten into salary cap trouble, that’s just fake news. You can just sign any player to any contract you want because none of it matters because it’s a soft cap league. Give RJ the max, fuggit. Hell, give Kevin Knox the max, he might still pan out.

      It’s gonna be one of THESE conversations I can see.

    93. The Honorable Cock Jowles: the umarell be pacing today

      LOL. Everyday when i’m taking my kid to school, we go by a construction site with a lot of old men watching how the works are going. And since you made this comment the other day, everyday i think to myself… UMARELL! :D

    94. I’m not worried about RJ… yet. A much more pressing need, can someone help me find a PG? For us to send the trade idea to Leon.

    95. I mean, its fine for the warriors to be overpaying Wiggins. They have Steph and Dray and Klay. If you overpay for a player like Wiggins, then its super easy to build a contender. Just also have one of best point guards of all time and the best 3 point shooting backcourt in the history of the NBA and it won’t matter how much wiggins is paid.

      Guess what this is called? WIN CURVE.

      Oh wait, that doesn’t exist. Kind of like the salary cap itself. Nevermind.

    96. thenoblefacehumper: No one thinks that if the Knicks don’t pay Barrett, there will be some elite player waiting to take that money instead.

      Then it’s a pointless discussion, as I’ve noted.

      The debate is whether paying Barrett is a move that will make it more or less likely the Knicks contend in the near future. Your retort seems to be “it will have no impact,”

      Yes, his salary is essentially an irrelevancy for the reason that’s already been conceded — that it won’t have any impact into whether they can get an elite player. If they sign him to whatever number they sign him too, far and away the biggest factor in what you say is “the debate” will be how well he plays, not how much money he makes.

      thenoblefacehumper: which is contradicted by the fact that having unproductive players on your payroll at very high AAV figures seems to have a pretty damn good correlation with the “makes it less likely” outcome.

      No, plenty of really good teams have and have had bad veteran contracts on their books. There isn’t really much correlation there at all, beyond the theoretical.

    97. JK47: It’s gonna be one of THESE conversations I can see.

        

      Yep, seems to be one of those where a faction makes a bunch of completely false premises that their echo chamber has told them is true and then gets mad when the falsity of the premises are pointed out. Definitely leaning in that direction.

      You and TNFH have hypothesized an NBA marketplace that doesn’t actually exist. The theory you have behind it is one of those things that seems like it might make sense and then what happens is that you repeat it to each other so much that it becomes accepted as true and obvious. But it’s anything but. I’ve tried to explain exactly why, but horse/water.

    98. Why not give a max contract to every player? By your definition, there is no such thing as a bad contract, since there is no salary cap.

    99. Why are the Lakers surrounding their big salary players with ten veteran minimum contract guys who suck ass at basketball? Why do they not have star players as role players, considering there is no opportunity cost to having bad contracts on your team?

    100. Three (long) hours to the game thread…

      I’ll just repeat myself since my previous comment got held up in moderation — I would have thought we’d gone 4-8 or 3-9 in the last 12 game, but we’ve gone 7-5. For the way I feel right now (and others, apparently), that seems unreal.

    101. Just think — if the Knicks had signed Kristaps Porzingis to a max contract, they wouldn’t have been able to get Julius Randle!!!!!

    102. A statement like “it doesn’t really matter how much you pay guys” obviously has to contain a strongly implied “within reason” in order for it to make a lick of sense (as people are pointing out, giving Kevin Knox a max would probably be no bueno). However with a guy like RJ the problem is that “within reason” can mean a lot of things. If you’re seeing things floated from like $10M a season to $25M a season the difference between those seems pretty significant.

    103. Donnie Walsh: Gary Payton II was terrible for 29 years and now he’s fucking awesome.

      Probably it’s the same reason why Wiggins is a good player now. We should trade for Steph, Klay and Dray, and then our players will automatically turn from frog to awesome NBA player. :D

    104. Spurs without Keldon Johnson, Doug McDermott, Devin Vassell, Derrick White, Thaddeus Young, Tre Jones and on a back-to-back.

      Don’t even try to lose guys, don’t even try.

    105. Max: Don’t even try to lose guys, don’t even try.

      Max, you must be reasonable and ask for things they can do. We all know it’s in their DNA to try to lose in a spinning fashion.

    106. Piling on RJ in hopes that he responds like he did against Indiana! I think he needs to move to the bench where the pace isn’t quite so glacial. IQ is the only guard who’ll push the ball and while RJ isn’t exactly a sprinting rim-runner I do think he’d benefit from getting more opportunities early in the clock before defenses are set. Of course, it’d be much nicer if he wasn’t useless against set defenses but he is what he is at the moment. And at the moment he looks pretty firmly in the Wiggans/Barnes camp. But he’s got a year and a half before the Knicks have to make any decision on him so he’s got plenty of time to change the narrative.

    107. Donnie Walsh:
      Gary Payton II was terrible for 29 years and now he’s fucking awesome.

      He’s about to double his career numbers. 700 minutes over 5 or 6 years probably wasn’t a great indicator of his ability. I don’t think he’d be doing this on the Pistons, but he is a god near the rim and shooting his ass off from beyond the arc. 1.5% of his total shots from from between ten feet and the 3PT arc. He is the textbook definition of a role player finding himself in the perfect place. I hope someone overpays for him this summer, as he’s really earned a paycheck.

    108. Jorge Sierra: LeBron James is the first player in history to improve his career scoring average in his 19th NBA season. He’s one of only two to improve his steals average and one of three to accomplish that with assists. LeBron > Father Time.

      :O

    109. Yes, his salary is essentially an irrelevancy for the reason that’s already been conceded — that it won’t have any impact into whether they can get an elite player. If they sign him to whatever number they sign him too, far and away the biggest factor in what you say is “the debate” will be how well he plays, not how much money he makes.

      This just isn’t true I think. If we were forced to make a decision on RJ’s extension at this very moment, he wouldn’t be sniffing Collins’ 4/80 deal. Sexton is widely regarded as an overpay and you can project way more improvement for him (and he has a far better upside scenario). RJ is worth, at this very moment, at most a 4/40 deal–he’s really been that bad (that is, he’s been sub-replacement level as a top 3 pick, which is frankly alarming). Anything above that is an overpay. And while one bad overpay doesn’t preclude you from getting an elite player (witness how GM Lebron routinely gets his front offices to maneuver around this), it does raise the difficulty of building a contender significantly, in both the short and long term, because it then causes you to be bereft of assets in the event that you need to move the contract. Simply paying RJ above his market value wouldn’t be an unmitigated disaster, but it would cost us dearly to move him when we needed to sign the big fish. Considering the further fact that his ceiling looks decidedly like “slightly above average starter” why should we treat him as a sacred cow worth overpaying for when he can’t even outperform noted lotto disaster Andrew Wiggins?

      At this very moment, I’d trade him without blinking. But we should be prudent and wait til the offseason to seriously consider this unless someone wants to be a sucker.

    110. In any case: I think we should trade for Turner if we aren’t waving the white flag this season (and I think we’ll be just good enough for Rose & Co. to foolishly refrain from doing so). In true Knicks fashion, I’m hoping for a string of crushing losses to rid our FO of their delusions of grandeur in the hopes that we’ll finally have a proper rebuild. Since that is a pipe dream I’ll settle for a Julius Randle/Myles Turner frontcourt and hope SYNERGY and FIT can make Randle suddenly stop thinking he’s Dirk and make IQ into a PG.

    111. RJ is worth, at this very moment, at most a 4/40 deal–he’s really been that bad (that is, he’s been sub-replacement level as a top 3 pick, which is frankly alarming). Anything above that is an overpay. And while one bad overpay doesn’t preclude you from getting an elite player (witness how GM Lebron routinely gets his front offices to maneuver around this), it does raise the difficulty of building a contender significantly, in both the short and long term, because it then causes you to be bereft of assets in the event that you need to move the contract.

      Yeah, basically E is confusing two separate ideas.

      There’s certainly something to the idea that it doesn’t matter much what you pay good players, because there will almost always be a market for good players even if they’re overpaid. There are some limits to this as once you get in the Wall/Westbrook salary range even good players can be difficult to move, but it’s true that, say, the Kings could probably find a taker for Buddy Hield even though he’s probably overpaid.

      E made the mistake of thinking this applies to all players, period. Paying RJ $20M AAV wouldn’t be a disaster if his production merited closer to $15M, because if his production merited $15M there would probably be takers for him regardless.

      The problem is right now RJ’s production merits him having to pay his team. So there would obviously be no takers for him at $20M if that continues, but even if he improves it would have to be by a whoooooooole lot to get within the “good player who is per se movable regardless of salary” range. That’s not impossible, but it’s time for him to, you know, stop sucking if it’s gonna happen.

    112. Maybe we can trade for Derrick White while we’re in Texas? He’s basically a point guard, right? A nice tall one for Thibs.

    113. Julius Randle is basically trolling me personally with how he’s playing so far

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