Knicks Morning News (2016.09.14)

  • [ESPN] Wednesday's Knicks Links: Revolving door at point guard over last 20 years
    (Wednesday, September 14, 2016 5:38:59 AM)

    Wednesday's Knicks Links: Revolving door at point guard over last 20 years

  • [NYPost] Daughter and a journalist: Abby Hornacek talks dad, Knicks
    (Tuesday, September 13, 2016 11:20:08 PM)

    A certain sports journalist in Chicago believes she has strong insight into attributes that make Jeff Hornacek a good NBA coach. “He’s the most dedicated person I’ve ever met, most motivated,’’ Hornacek’s 22-year-old daughter, Abby, told The Post in a phone interview. “That’s been great for me growing up, having him as a role model….

  • [NYPost] Mariah Carey hops in bed with Robin Lopez as his girlfriend watches
    (Tuesday, September 13, 2016 9:18:28 AM)

    One place Robin Lopez never expected to be? In bed with Mariah Carey. Fantasy became reality for the former Knicks 7-footer over the weekend as he was serenaded by the sultry singer during a performance of her Las Vegas show, “Mariah #1 to Infinity” Lopez was pulled to the stage, and girlfriend Christina Vargas watched…

  • [NYDN] Carmelo Anthony drops support in Crown Heights armory deal
    (Tuesday, September 13, 2016 8:51:14 PM)

    Knicks star Carmelo Anthony has dropped his involvement in Brooklyn’s controversial Bedford-Union Armory project.

  • [NYDN] Derrick Rose rape accuser invokes Knick’s college SAT scandal
    (Tuesday, September 13, 2016 3:24:49 PM)

    The woman accusing Derrick Rose and his pals of gang-raping her wants to smear the New York Knick by revisiting his test-cheating scandal.

  • [SNY Knicks] Porzingis ranks 68, Rose and Noah left off SI’s Top 100 NBA players
    (Tuesday, September 13, 2016 11:25:04 AM)

    In Sports Illustrated’s top 100 NBA players, Kristaps Porzingis ranked 68 while Derrick Rose and Joakim Noah were left off the list.

  • [SNY Knicks] The path to Chris Paul becoming a Knick next season
    (Tuesday, September 13, 2016 10:08:03 AM)

    The Knicks can clear enough money to sign Chris Paul, the Los Angeles Clippers’ guard who is destined for the Hall of Fame that is set to become a free agent at the end of this season.

  • [NYTimes] Job Audition? Katie Smith to Coach Liberty for 1 Game
    (Tuesday, September 13, 2016 5:46:09 PM)

    Katie Smith is getting a chance to be a head coach for a game.

  • [NYTimes] Thunder Forward McGary Suspended for 15 Games
    (Tuesday, September 13, 2016 5:09:34 PM)

    Oklahoma City Thunder forward Mitch McGary had his suspension for violating the NBA’s anti-drug policy increased by 10 games on Tuesday, and he will now miss the first 15 games of the 2016-17 season, the NBA said.

  • [NYTimes] Thunder F McGary Gets Another Drug Suspension
    (Tuesday, September 13, 2016 4:15:56 PM)

    Oklahoma City Thunder forward Mitch McGary has been suspended without pay for at least 10 games for violating the terms of the league’s anti-drug policy.

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    Mike Kurylo is the founder and editor of KnickerBlogger.net. His book on the 2012 Knicks, "We’ll Always Have Linsanity," is on sale now. Follow him on twitter (@KnickerBlogger).

    73 thoughts to “Knicks Morning News (2016.09.14)”

    1. there is a greater chance of Tiger Woods winning 4 masters in a row than Derrick Rose playing like a top-10 PG.

      This is actually an interesting statement, but not because of why Theo most likely wrote it. The situations are really different in that Tiger is well past his chronological physical prime at 41-42 years old and that multiple back surgeries are very different from multiple knee surgeries.

      That said – Tiger has lost his mental edge on his opponents, which was so important on those Sunday closing days. Rose, I think, has similarly lost his courage to absorb contact. By all reports, his athleticism is back, or at least nearly back enough that he’s still one of the most athletic point guards in the league. But his FTR has basically halved since his pre-injury years, which to me means with all his talk about wanting to able to walk after his career’s over etc, this is clearly on his mind. For a pro athlete with injuries that plenty of players have come back strong from to tell this to national media is pretty remarkable. I am obviously guessing here (since I don’t know him at all), but he doesn’t seem to be a calculating sort of guy — what he says/wants is what he says/wants.

      Whether he can be effective again probably has less to do with the physical recovery from injury and more to do with whether he trusts his body to absorb contact and not fall apart.

      It’s entirely possible that the pessimists are right, and that he’ll never be that guy again.

      Re: whether i’ll root for Rose? Pro athletes have never been role models to me. I cheered from Aroldis Chapman, forgot about Kobe Bryant’s whole thing in Denver, etc. Sports is entertainment to me, and I don’t put much stock into whether these guys are nice people or not. Am I going to buy my kid a Rose jersey? No. But sure, I’ll cheer when he scores or throws a nice pass etc.

    2. This is actually an interesting statement, but not because of why Theo most likely wrote it.

      I wrote because it reflects my belief that Rose has been finished for a while.

      It doesn’t take a genius to see the guy is not the same and his avoidance of contact when driving to the basket (all he could do when he was a star) has resulted in very poor scoring performance. Rose won’t be much better than any of the mediocre players the Knicks have used at the position the last few years.

      Noah won’t be Noah, either. He is not a “front line player” anymore, as bluntly put by Chicago’s owner. I concur with that.

    3. Rose is in a contract year, so avoiding contact would be counter-productive. If he plays poorly, he won’t get paid, simple as that. So if your assumption about his poor play is based on what you said above, it makes no sense.

      A better argument is that his game is totally contingent upon top-shelf athleticism and he does not have the ability (mentally or physically, take your pick) to adapt. I think it’s obvious that he is still one of the more athletic PGs in the league, so it is not about injury right now, it’s about his shooting ability on non-layups/dunks, shot selection and decision-making. I concede that those things may be broken beyond repair, but if there was no risk, we wouldn’t have been able to get him for what we gave up.

      But clearly, money is very important to Rose…he irked many by saying that he was playing for his next contract last year! I interpreted that to mean: “I’m not taking any unnecessary risks this year like I did in the past. No high-flying dunks, no off-balance drives to draw hard fouls, no blocks from behind in transition, no playing through pain, etc…” He doesn’t have those options this year. His career is essentially on the line.

    4. As far as Noah, I would take Chicago’s statements about him with a HUGE grain of salt.

      Its pretty normal for a team to kind of trash a player, especially one they used to love, after they spurn them and don’t resign with them.

      There’s risks with Rose and Noah, obviously, and maybe Reinsdorf is right and we’ve screwed ourselves. But Noah’s last 2 years were bad because of two injuries to two different parts of his body. Its not like STAT with multiple knee surgeries. And if you look at The Bull’s defensive numbers last year when Noah did play (granted in limited minutes) he still was anchoring a very good defense and they were better with him on the floor than off. If he can stay healthy, he will be productive for us. Chicago probably felt hesitant to throw him huge money but I’m sure they would have welcomed him back if he wanted to stay. They trashed Thibs when he left too and he helped lead the most successful Bulls teams since they won titles. Other teams have thrown their former players under the bus after they left. We did it with Tyson Chandler.

    5. It’s worth noting that Chicago’s defense collapsed after he was out for the season. He still has a very tangible effect on that side of the ball and I suspect on that end he’ll age a bit like KG if his minutes can be managed appropriately.

      I’m more worried about the back end of Noah’s deal than his immediate production in the first 2 seasons of it.

    6. years 3 and 4 for Noah may be pretty ugly. He’ll “only” be ~17% of the cap by then (~19M vs. ~110M cap) but at the very least he’ll be a good locker room guy, be able to be a useful guy off the bench.

      Really wish we had at least a team option or partially guaranteed 4th year.

      Surprisingly though — there are 13 centers just in the last 20 seasons who have played 15+MPG at age 34+ and posted a WS/48 >0.100. Many of them have real injury histories and/or were thought to rely on athleticism:

      Camry
      Elden Campbell
      Erick Dampier
      Vlade
      Ewing
      Ilgauskas
      Brad Miller
      Mourning
      Mutombo
      Shaq
      Hakeem
      David Robinson
      Sabonis

    7. Rose is in a contract year, so avoiding contact would be counter-productive. If he plays poorly, he won’t get paid, simple as that. So if your assumption about his poor play is based on what you said above, it makes no sense.

      The only things that doesn’t make sense is your belief that a player can perform way beyond his capability because he is on a ‘contract year’.

      Rose is what is left of him. It’s *that* simple.

      I concede that those things may be broken beyond repair, but if there was no risk, we wouldn’t have been able to get him for what we gave up.

      21.5 M for Rose’s corpse is no bargain. Only in New York do fans think you can build a contender with reclamation projects.

    8. @ 8 – I guess you didn’t watch JR during the 54 win season?

      Its a well known phenomenon that players play better in contract years. Motivation and focus are a huge part of basketball, especially the NBA where they play freaking 80 plus games a year, have lots of back to backs, etc. Games are won and lost in the middle of the season bc players are tired or not as interested for half the game bc its a back to back against a bad team on the road.

    9. @Z-Man

      You know his career is on the line, but does Rose? He may very well think he played at least near max basketball last year and that the key to cashing in is to just show he can stay healthy and keep playing safe (ineffective) basketball.

    10. JR played to his capacity at the time. His problem was dedication or lack thereof. Rose’s case is very different: he has been plagued by very real and serious injuries and his game reflects that.

      No player can will himself to perform better than his capacity allows. If that were the case, Michael Jordan would have made it to the baseball hall of fame and thousands of dedicated, hard-working kids would make it to the NBA.
      If the prospect of a new contract could elevate performance, Kobe would be in the NBA!

    11. No player can will himself to perform better than his capacity allows. If that were the case, Michael Jordan would have made it to the baseball hall of fame and thousands of dedicated, hard-working kids would make it to the NBA.

      Contract year phenomenon is a real thing. The question is how much better will Rose actually be. For some, he’s on the upswing. For the rest of us, those who don’t blindly disregard statistics, a 10% bump in his production is still one of the shittiest players in the NBA. I’m just shrugging and waiting for my trip to Vegas in October.

    12. Although there’s evidence that contract year motivation is real, especially for reb% for bigs, free agent year guards over 24 actually see a statistically significant drop in TS% — maybe because they think (very possible correctly) that scoring more even at lower efficiency will improve their contract value .

    13. I am so ready for November. This is gonna be awesome.

      haha…yeah when you do your disappearing act if the Knicks are good.

    14. haha…yeah when you do your disappearing act if the Knicks are good.

      Like when I said during the preseason that Ronnie Brewer and the 2012-13 Knicks would win 54 games?

      Were you here for my one year of justified optimism? Feels like you weren’t.

    15. @14 – contract year will have some players *trying harder*, not necessarily playing better. And even when they do better, it does not transform them from crappy (Rose) to top-10 (Z-man’s dream for Rose).

      I do agree that the season will be full of excitement, specially for Warriors fans!

    16. Sam Hinkie is on Twitter now posting Jack Kerouac slash Chris Sacca personal epiphanies from a Palo Alto Starbucks. I would definitely watch an odd couple remake on Bravo with him and Phil running an Applebee’s franchise.

    17. ” he has been plagued by very real and serious injuries and his game reflects that.”

      Not in the way you’re implying. Look into it.

      I dare anyone to watch Rose’s clips and claim he’s not still one of the best athletes in the league.

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xuLAP5h73SU

      I agree with Frank. What’s happened, I think, is that because of his injuries Rose does not seek or absorb contact, which greatly affects his ability to draw fouls and finish.

      Here is a great video detailing some of the physical mechanics that have changed post-injury: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vi65hnvpssY

      That said, I really doubt Rose ever recovers mentally, contract year or not.

    18. Theo it’s not about “willing” yourself to play better. Its about being more focused and active night in and night out during the long NBA season. Again, the NBA season is very long. There’s lots of traveling involved and many back to back games. Many players and teams for various reasons will take a night off during the seasons. The best players and teams do this less often. But its easy to take a night off or even a quarter off, which can be the difference between winning a game and not winning a game or scoring 12 points vs 16. They’re tired from traveling. They take a team for granted, etc. Being in a contract year can motivate the player not to do that. Which can lead to more rebounds, points, etc. I agree that a contract year isn’t going to make a player automatically shoot better, but it can make them try harder on defense, rebound better, etc…and defense and rebounding can lead to easy buckets, which does in turn improve shooting percentages for all involved.

    19. Also, you just proved my point. JR’s issue was dedication which he didn’t have when he was motivated to get a better contract.

      Rose may not have the same dedication issues that JR did. But maybe he’s played at half speed or had some hesitancy after coming back from his injury. This year he might think “screw it, I gotta try to play better than I did and not worry about getting hurt or else I won’t get paid” and that could make him play better or more like the old DRose. I admit I don’t expect him to be anywhere near MVP Rose but the pieces are in place with Melo, Lee, Noah and Zinger as his starting 5 for him to have success.

    20. @24

      Huge difference between being the same athlete he was before injury and still being a very good athlete.

    21. @1 “Re: whether i’ll root for Rose? Pro athletes have never been role models to me. I cheered from Aroldis Chapman, forgot about Kobe Bryant’s whole thing in Denver, etc. Sports is entertainment to me, and I don’t put much stock into whether these guys are nice people or not. Am I going to buy my kid a Rose jersey? No. But sure, I’ll cheer when he scores or throws a nice pass etc. ”

      Agree 100%. I don’t really care that much what these guys do off the field, we’re not friends. I root for then to perform well in their sport and the team to win. What they do off the court/field does not come into play that much for me. Would I like it better if they were good guys, absolutely. But it’s not a difference maker in watching sports for me.

    22. Right. The difference between an above-average NBA player and one of the worst NBA players, apparently.

      Yes? That would be the argument to make that even a minor drop in his athletic ability has made him much worse at basketball. He can still be relatively explosive and athletic while not being nearly as good as he was at his physical best.

    23. He did lose some of his vertical, but clearly remains one of the best athletes in the NBA.
      His quickness, burst and speed are all pretty awesome.

      What exactly is Jowles arguing here?

      We all agree he lost some athleticism, but argue that he’s still a very good athlete relative to his position and the league as a whole.

      Is Jowles saying Rose is no longer athletic, or is he saying that his athleticism had nothing to do with his success?

      Or, and perhaps more likely, is he just arguing to be a **** and doesn’t actually have a point, because, you know, he needs that attention here every day.

    24. 1. I hate the trade for Derrick Rose.
      2. Even if Derrick Rose is “one of the best athletes in the NBA” (hard to falsify or confirm), his results in the last three years have been awful.
      3. MVP Derrick Rose was not just “one of the best athletes in the NBA”, he was such a superior athlete that he was able to get to any spot on the court against virtually any defense.
      4. MVP Derrick Rose was exactly the sort of “ball stopper” that is the antithesis of Triangle or Triangle-inspired offense.
      5. Post-injury Derrick Rose is still a ball stopper, he just does not have the payoff.

      Last year, I thought the Knicks would win 38 games and grab the 8th spot. It turned out that I was too optimistic on the number of wins (although the first forty games looked good) and underestimated the strength of the East.

      This year, I will be shocked if the Knicks end above 35 wins, unless Derrick Rose gets benched early in the season.

    25. Rose has not been the same post-injury and there is every indication he won’t revert to “top-10 PG” status, contract year or not, vertical loss or not, mental deterioration or not.

      That’s the way the Rose cookie crumbled and the Knicks are hoping to magically put the 21.5 million parts back together. Not gonna happen.

    26. Would the Rose athleticism argument go along the lines of “his freakish athleticism made him above average/MVP candidate the loss of that to just above average athleticism has been why he isn’t anymore (or worst in NBA in THCJ speak)

    27. Or, and perhaps more likely, is he just arguing to be a **** and doesn’t actually have a point, because, you know, he needs that attention here every day.

      Please don’t use profanities directly at another poster.

    28. “Rose has not been the same post-injury and there is every indication he won’t revert to “top-10 PG” status, contract year or not, vertical loss or not, mental deterioration or not.

      That’s the way the Rose cookie crumbled and the Knicks are hoping to magically put the 21.5 million parts back together. Not gonna happen.”

      Once again, NO ONE is arguing against that premise, and NO ONE who can be considered a semi-regular poster here ever has.

    29. 4. MVP Derrick Rose was exactly the sort of “ball stopper” that is the antithesis of Triangle or Triangle-inspired offense.

      What does this mean? Jordan and Kobe were notorious “ball stoppers” and they were fine in the Triangle. “Ball stoppers” are pretty useful when they can do positive stuff when stopping the ball. Rose hasn’t been good at at making positive contributions because of his decline since his return, but not sure being a ball stopper precludes anybody from working within the Triangle.

      Also we’re not going to use the exact Triangle offense Phil was running in Chicago or what he ran in LA, so I don’t particularly understand why it’s being discussed as such.

    30. That was an uncharacteristically hard sentence to read, Nick.

      A comma or some other punctuation could have helped.

    31. What does this mean? Jordan and Kobe were notorious “ball stoppers” and they were fine in the Triangle.

      Im usually with you lavor…..but jeez. Not Kobe and Mike lol

    32. @er

      I’m not suggesting Rose was ever as good as those 2 or that he has a chance of becoming that good, because he definitely doesn’t. I just don’t buy the idea that because Rose is a ball stopper fails he will fail to work within the system and Phil doesn’t seem to see it that way either considering he has been interested in Reggie Jackson and Goran Dragic before this, 2 ball dominant point guards. Like, if Rose sucks it’ll just be because he sucks, not because his game is ill suited to the Triangle offense.

      I also have a hard time believing we’re going to be running the Triangle offense from the 90s Bulls or 00’s Lakers or even whatever we ran under Fisher/Rambis. I’d expect to still see 2 guard fronts, but way more 1 guard high pick and roll action, UCLA cuts, HORNS, etc. in addition to some of the more familiar Triangle actions we’ve seen over the last couple of seasons.

    33. Rose is not the old rose
      Melo is not worth the contract
      Phil is the worst gm.
      The list goes on…
      At the end of the day this is our Knicks team and we will always hope.
      A championship in this lifetime please.

    34. Once again, NO ONE is arguing against that premise

      Wait. Let me make sure I have this straight. Nobody is arguing against Theo when he says this:

      Rose has not been the same post-injury and there is every indication he won’t revert to “top-10 PG” status, contract year or not, vertical loss or not, mental deterioration or not.

      So we’re in pretty much universal agreement that the Derrick Rose trade was a terrible idea? We’re in agreement that we gave up good assets and $21.5M of salary cap space for a player who is not very good?

    35. No. Lopez and grant were ok assets not good assets. And there is room between being a top 10 pg and the worst player in the league.

      You see how your side is extremist?

    36. No. Lopez and grant were ok assets not good assets. And there is room between being a top 10 pg and the worst player in the league.

      …and there’s a lot of space in that range that would make the trade terrible. Do you think it’s only a bad trade if he plays like the worst player in the league?

      Also, Robin Lopez is indisputably a “good” asset and any other opinion represents a bad understanding of the current market.

    37. Lopez was a good asset. Holiday and a 2nd round pick is about on par with Grant, but that could swing either way. Calderon and Rose are bad assets.

      It was a bad trade, mostly because we should have been able to get Holiday and the 2nd without giving up Grant if Lopez was going out in that deal, not that I’m exactly upset Grant’s no longer a Knick.

    38. Do you think it’s only a bad trade if he plays like the worst player in the league?

      No but that’s what people here are prognosticating. I like the trade. I’d rather holiday, Noah, and Rose and a 2 vs Lopez, Grant and Calderon 100 out of 100

    39. Calderon and Rose are bad assets.

      Expiring $7m contract of a player with limited, but useful, skills vs expiring $21.5m contract of a player who has either been terrible or missed over half the season for four consecutive years. They don’t exactly offset.

      No but that’s what people here are prognosticating. I like the trade. I’d rather holiday, Noah, and Rose and a 2 vs Lopez, Grant and Calderon 100 out of 100

      Well when something has happened for the last two seasons, it’s not exactly ridiculous to think it might happen again. Also Noah wasn’t in the deal, and definitely did not give us a discount as a result of it.

    40. Expiring $7m contract of a player with limited, but useful, skills vs expiring $21.5m contract of a player who has either been terrible or missed over half the season for four consecutive years. They don’t exactly offset.

      Jose’s useful skill was he was an accurate 3 point shooter, who could rarely get off 3s unless he was wide open wasn’t all that useful. Rose’s useful skill is that he can penetrate, but can’t finish at the rim anymore or draw fouls. Neither is particularly that useful. Not sure why the dollar value even matters when they’re both expiring.

      Rose played 66 games last year and 51 the year before. So it’s been 2 seasons since he missed half the season.

    41. Jose’s useful skill was he was an accurate 3 point shooter, who could rarely get off 3s unless he was wide open wasn’t all that useful. Rose’s useful skill is that he can penetrate, but can’t finish at the rim anymore or draw fouls. Neither is particularly that useful. Not sure why the dollar value even matters when they’re both expiring.

      But Calderon’s useful skill can actually be tangibly demonstrated, where as Rose’s simply cannot. He did play in over half the games the last two years, but couldn’t avoid being terrible in either of them, which I also mentioned.

    42. Rose has one specific skill that the Knicks sorely lacked last year–dribble penetration. Since none o the PGs last year were scorers anyway, you added a skill and didn’t subtract anything.

      I was not a fan of the deal per se, but am far less pessimistic than Theo, THCJ and others for a couple of reasons:

      1. Rose is in a contract year, which, as THCJ confirms, is a thing. He has to play balls out. If he sux (or even if he doesn’t), we can use his cap space on someone else…like CP3.
      2. Hornacek is on the hot seat from day 1. This is a win-now team and if he doesn’t win at least somewhat (say, 40+), he is likely gone. (and probably Phil, too.) Hornacek is a smart, no-nonsense guy with a (brief) history of relating well to PGs. If Rose is not playing well and/or not listening, he will be benched.
      3. Rose doesn’t have to play super well to work out for this year. If his dribble-penetration, combined with strong direction from Hornacek, can provide intangible benefits for players up and down the roster.
      4. Rose will have 2 (potentially) dominant scorers in the and 2 dominant rim-protectors in the starting lineup. He will feed tons of Kobe assists to Kristaps and Noah.
      5. Kristaps. All roads lead to Kristaps. No matter what happens with Rose, we have Kristaps.

      So yeah, I’m not betting the house (or even $1) on Rose being good. But I find Phil’s gamble exciting. I’m super-pumped to see how this team plays out. And I know that no matter what, we have next year’s (and all beyond) first round picks.

      Kristaps!

    43. Let’s also remember that the peanut gallery was absolutely positive that Phil was gonna hire Rambis, and if not, either Blatt or Thibs. I think Hornacek is gonna turn out to be a brilliant hire. He’s the perfect guy for the moment…smart, tough, selfless, hungry, seeking redemption. He’s not gonna let Rose drag him down, or blindly accede to Phil’s triangle overtures. He will be his own man even if it gets him fired.

    44. Jose was a very good passer who never turned the ball over and was a great shooter. Those things are all good. Jose had huge flaws that at least came close to outweighing the positive things he did, but he was good at doing some things that help your team win basketball games. Rose (at least last year) was good at getting to the rim. Getting to the rim is only good if you put the ball in the basket, get fouled, or pass to an open teammate. Rose was good at none of those things. Getting to the rim is a means to an end. It’s not good in and of itself. Shooting a 3 point shot that goes in is a good end to a possession.

    45. Derrick Rose racked up 9.7 fts per 100 in his MVP year. (and made 86% of them)
      Last year he was at 4.3.

      This is not the same guy. I continue to think acquiring Rose was a really dumb idea for many, many reasons. But as always, I am looking forward to being proven wrong. If he is better than Lopez, there will be some humble pie eaten.

    46. Most 27 year old NBA players are much better than the player they were six years ago. I agree its the wrong baseline to use. We should use the last two years, because he was fairly healthy. By that baseline he’s the worst player on the team that’s had an NBA career. Can he be better? Sure, I think so. But since he’s only here for a year he’s got to be much, much better for that trade to make sense

    47. The Derrick Rose trade doesn’t make sense unless you attach some sort of abstract and convoluted logic to it.

      “Some actually good point guard like Westbrook or Paul will see how good the Knicks were even though Rose kind of stunk, and will be lured to the Knicks because the Knicks are obviously just a point guard away from greatness.”

      You know, like that.

      From a basketball standpoint it really makes no sense at all. He’s in the last year of his contract. He’s a bad candidate for an extension because of his long history of injuries, and because of the fact that his game relies on the kind of top-shelf athleticism that will only decline further as he gets closer to 30. So he’s either a stopgap solution at PG who is gone in a year, or he is the recipient of an incredibly ill-advised contract extension. The Knicks are not title contenders, so there is really no point in burning two assets and paying $21.5M in salary to a guy who is just keeping the position warm for a year. The Knicks could have potentially gotten something useful with those assets.

      It was a dumb trade, so dumb really that it is hard to envision any way in which it pans out to the Knicks’ long-term advantage. What’s a realistic best-case scenario? Rose plays kinda okayish and gets a team-friendly extension? Doesn’t seem very likely. Rose plays lights-out, regains his MVP form, signs a max contract and gives the Knicks four or five years of elite point guard play? That doesn’t really seem realistic either.

    48. If you look at the Rose trade as Grant for Holliday and a pick, and Lopez for Rose and for taking on Calderon’s contract, then I can’t say it’s an awful deal. I liked Lopez much more than I like Rose, and I didn’t want a win-now trade, but that’s a disagreement with Phil’s strategy, not an indictment of the trade as a horrible deal. We can all worry what will happen to Rose when his contract expires, but I don’t want to blame Jackson for something he hasn’t done yet. At least we have a coherent team in the sense that we have a reasonably balanced team with backups who have some potential and we have picks and space going ahead. Maybe that only makes us an average NBA team or slightly worse this year, but it’s so much better than what other win now efforts have given us in the past, that I’m willing to see what happpens and not be too negative.

    49. It was a dumb trade, so dumb really that it is hard to envision any way in which it pans out to the Knicks’ long-term advantage. What’s a realistic best-case scenario? Rose plays kinda okayish and gets a team-friendly extension? Doesn’t seem very likely. Rose plays lights-out, regains his MVP form, signs a max contract and gives the Knicks four or five years of elite point guard play? That doesn’t really seem realistic either.

      I generally agree with you — overall the trade wasn’t great. I’m fine with it but that’s because I’m just looking for interesting basketball, which is NOT where we were headed otherwise this season. Watching how it plays out will be really fascinating. Jared Dubin said on his podcast that he thinks the Knicks are one of the highest variance teams out there – could envision a 30 win team all the way up to a 50 win team. Even a dumpster fire will be interesting, and will lead to a high pick.

      “Some actually good point guard like Westbrook or Paul will see how good the Knicks were even though Rose kind of stunk, and will be lured to the Knicks because the Knicks are obviously just a point guard away from greatness.”

      I actually DO think this is at least part of the reasoning. Remember, we couldn’t even get a meeting with Durant because we were so obviously not ready for any sort of leap to anywhere. Imagine a situation (yes, imagine) in which Noah is 85% of his 2013-14 self, Kristaps makes the leap, Melo stays the same, and Courtney Lee stays the same. Notice I left Rose out completely. We have all our draft picks, some interesting young guys, and yeah, maybe we ARE just a CP3 away from contention.

      It’s obviously a fantasy, but I think there is a good chance CP3 leaves LA – that team has no future in a conference with SA and GS. In the East, there’s Cleveland and that’s it – any number of teams could vie for the ECF going forward.

    50. @57

      Jose was a very good passer? At one point in his career sure, now he seemed way more interested in not turning the ball over than creating for others. How many lobs did he miss last year to Melo, KP, DWill, etc? People keep saying he has all the useful skills yet we couldn’t give him away for 2 years and Chicago had to give up 2 second round picks just to move him for nothing. The guy is done and every team in the league knows it now.

    51. I think there is a good chance CP3 leaves LA

      I wish this were true but I doubt it. Given the expected rise in the cap, that 5th contract year will be huge (40m+?) and I don’t think 32yo Paul would walk away from that unless there were some large endorsement deal which offset most of the loss.

    52. Rose is in a contract year, which, as THCJ confirms, is a thing. He has to play balls out.

      I think Rose will continue to be terrible on defense if only because he’s not gonna risk a contract year injury by playing tough, aggressive defense. I’m skeptical he’ll even play all out on offense for an extended period since another injury would mean vet min or mle money. Playing average ball over 70+ games might be the optimal target for someone concerned about his next contract.

    53. I wish this were true but I doubt it. Given the expected rise in the cap, that 5th contract year will be huge (40m+?) and I don’t think 32yo Paul would walk away from that unless there were some large endorsement deal which offset most of the loss.

      CP3 can’t get 5-year deal unless they change the “over 36” rule in the new CBA, which prevents a player from signing a 5 year contract if they would turn 36 at any point during the terms of the deal. I’m not sure it will get changed and this may have been a major reason why Lebron signed his 3 year deal with Cleveland this season.

      So the difference at that point would be pretty minimal. His starting salary for his max next season at roughly $35.7m assuming the $102.2m cap projection the league put out and the Clippers could offer him 7.5% raises while the Knicks or any other suitor could only offer him 4.5%. My feeling is he’ll leave and maybe it’s to New York, but Paul’s going to be able to pick from any number of suitors so I have no clue.

    54. My understanding was that the “over 36” clause applied only if a player is 36 at the start of any season in the contract. You are saying it applies if he turns 36 at any time during the contract. CP3 would turn 36 at the end of the 5th season. I hope you’re right and I’m wrong!

    55. Chris Paul has no reason to want to play for one of the worst NBA teams of the last decade.

      The Knicks are not one Chris Paul away from contention and even if (by some weird means) they landed him or some other great player, it means they won’t have money to improve their terrible bench.

      A lot of analysis on this blog is based on so much delusion! The Knicks are *not* close to contention, guys. Philly is much closer and in much better shape. Digest that. Slowly.

    56. Never mind. It doesn’t even matter since CP3 would be 36 at the start of the 5th season. I think Frank is right we’d have a decent shot if Melo and Noah are healthy and KP makes leap although CP3 would have to be concerned about Melo and Noah’s health and productivity over 4 years.

    57. it means they won’t have money to improve their terrible bench.

      how do you know that the bench is terrible? Just because you say something doesn’t mean its true.

    58. CP3 would have to be concerned about Melo and Noah’s health and productivity over 4 years.

      Maybe Noah, but I think it might be a fair assumption that the SuperFriends see no flaws in each other lol.

    59. Imagine a situation (yes, imagine) in which Noah is 85% of his 2013-14 self, Kristaps makes the leap, Melo stays the same, and Courtney Lee stays the same. Notice I left Rose out completely. We have all our draft picks, some interesting young guys, and yeah, maybe we ARE just a CP3 away from contention.

      Yes, but you can do the “we’re CP3 away from contention” trick WITHOUT Derrick Rose. Get Aaron Brooks to play PG and use the Lopez/Grant assets to get something else useful. If Noah plays well like he does in your scenario, voila, you’re “CP3 away from contention.” And as an added bonus, you have CP3 and also the useful things you got for RoLo/Grant.

      I don’t see why having Rose on the team makes the Chris Paul scenario any more likely. Is it because of Rose’s “star” cachet? What good is the cachet if he plays as badly as he’s been playing? How does having a bad player play badly help attract free agents? See, now we’re getting into the abstract and convoluted logic I was talking about.

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