Knicks Morning News (2016.08.09)

  • [SNY Knicks] Olympics: efficient Kuzminskas solid in win over Brazil
    (Monday, August 08, 2016 1:40:02 PM)

    New York Knick Mindaugas Kuzminskas was solid in Lithuania’s first game of the Olympics

  • [SNY Knicks] Knicks primed to replenish its D-League talent pool
    (Monday, August 08, 2016 8:25:01 AM)

    Several prospects with the New York Knicks’ D-League team have opted to play abroad during the summer in hopes of getting promoted to the NBA club.

  • [NYDN] Melo no longer has interest, won’t seize own Olympic moment
    (Monday, August 08, 2016 3:46:41 PM)

    A month after he’d hinted at his own Olympic protest to send a message about race relations, Melo is in Rio talking of no such protest

  • [NYDN] Carmelo Anthony downplays idea of Olympic protest
    (Monday, August 08, 2016 10:03:19 AM)

    Maybe there won’t be a grand Olympic protest after all.

  • [NYTimes] U.S. Add to Venezuela’s Misery With a Rio Rout
    (Tuesday, August 09, 2016 2:00:27 AM)

    The United States men’s basketball team continued to steamroll toward a third straight Olympic gold medal as they thumped Venezuela 113-69 on Monday, adding a bit of sporting misery to the recession-ravaged country.

  • [NYTimes] Stoudemire Chose Jerusalem Over Non-Playoff NBA Teams
    (Monday, August 08, 2016 7:30:49 PM)

    Veteran basketball standout Amar’e Stoudemire on Monday said he turned down offers to continue playing in the NBA and decided to follow his “Hebraic roots” and play in Israel for Hapoel Jerusalem.

  • [NYTimes] Basketball: Spain Feels Pain as U.S. Juggernaut Rolls On
    (Monday, August 08, 2016 6:18:32 PM)

    After two routs to open the Olympic women’s basketball tournament, the question is not so much will the all-conquering United States win a sixth straight gold medal but will they ever lose again.

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    Mike Kurylo

    Mike Kurylo is the founder and editor of KnickerBlogger.net. His book on the 2012 Knicks, "We’ll Always Have Linsanity," is on sale now. Follow him on twitter (@KnickerBlogger).

    72 thoughts to “Knicks Morning News (2016.08.09)”

    1. From previous thread:

      It’s likely that Jerian Grant plays as well as Rose does. It’s likely that Lopez outplays Noah. It’s likely that Galloway puts up similar numbers to Lee. We’ve (once again) given up youth and mortgaged the future in a ridiculous bid to win now with declining players who used to be really good because ‘you can’t rebuild in NY.’

      I don’t know how you come up with “likely” – I would go with “possible” — especially the Galloway/Lee thing. At least for the next couple years (the length of Galloway’s contract with NO), I think it’s extremely unlikely that Galloway ends up being better than Courtney Lee, who had a TS 60 points higher than Galloway and who is a superior defender.

      Remind me again how we mortgaged our future? Because we traded Jerian Grant, the 23 year old who shot 39% from the field, 22% from 3, all while picking up what may be a top 40 pick in a deep draft next year?

      here is a list of 23 year old guards in their first or second year who had a TS <48 and played 1000+ min in the 3 point era ie. guards who sucked despite given minutes. The only player who ended up being worth anything on this list was Gary Payton, who I think we can all agree Jerian Grant is NOT. Would losing any of these guys be considered mortgaging the future?

      Yes, Grant was a little more promising as the year went on, but then we’re subdividing seasons again and looking at small n game samples, which people who are looking for reasons to be optimistic about Rose aren’t allowed to do, so I won’t do that with Grant.

      Or were you talking about the mentoring that Jose Calderon could give a young guard?

      I mean, we’re talking about “likely” and probabilities here. What is the probability that Jerian Grant will be anything but a backup PG in this league? I could be wrong, of course, but we’re talking “likely” here.

    2. http://basketball.realgm.com/analysis/243069/Solving-The-Knicks-Offense-With-Carmelo-Anthony-As-Stretch-Four

      I found this to be an interesting take, confirming what KBers have been saying for years (and what it took me a while to digest): Melo should be at the 4 as much as possible.

      Here’s a line that gives hope to Rose-ophiles:

      (Defenders can always duck under the screen to give Rose a wide open jump shot, but he was lethal after the All-Star break when left alone on long twos. The sample size is fewer than 100 shots, but is also extracted from a period of sustained health and reinstalled confidence. The weaknesses in Rose’s game are pronounced, but there’s a reality where open pull-up jumpers aren’t one of them.)

    3. There is something for everyone in the article:

      Unwilling (or unable) to rebuild around Porzingis by trading Anthony this offseason, the Knicks doubled down by completing a backpage-friendly trade with the Chicago Bulls and then giving Joakim Noah way too much guaranteed money over the next four years. At best it makes them interesting. At worst it was irresponsible. The path to building a mega-successful Knicks team three or four years down the road was obvious and realistic (meaning tank!). Instead, they surveyed the landscape of the Eastern Conference, convinced themselves that a 47-win season is possible, and decided to build on top of a shaky foundation.

      For the second summer in a row, the Knicks were content fictionalizing a facade of ambition. But what’s done is done. Moving forward, at least their roster is more talented, athletic and versatile than before. They also have Jeff Hornacek as their new head coach, and should be able to use Anthony as a stretch four once again.

      Despite adding Noah, Derrick Rose, Courtney Lee, Brandon Jennings and Marshall Plumlee, New York is not a “super team.” But who knows what can happen if everybody stays healthy, a majority of Hornacek’s lineup combinations perform like a whole that’s greater than the sum of its parts, and they somehow are unshackled from chains that were locked by Jackson’s obsession with the Triangle. If winning a playoff series is the goal then next season just may be a success.

    4. @1 While I am not without many reservations about the way Phil went about building this team, I do think that some of the assumptions of the naysayers are overstatements. The fair criticisms are:

      Noah is very likely overpaid for his potential on-the-court.
      Lee, while not necessarily overpaid in this market, is no bargain either. He’s getting top dollar for what he is.
      The Rose deal has at least as much downside as it has upside.

      Even so, saying that we “mortgaged the future” is pretty alarmist. A better way of putting it is that we may have delayed reaching the goal of having a perennial contending team by a couple of years, unless everything works out positively.

      But again, I refer back to the signing of Afflalo and DWill to 1+1 player option deals. Both of those worked out perfectly, right?

    5. Go look at Courtney Lee’s stats when he was 24

      lol you’re picking literally the 1 season out of his 7 in which he was a league average (or below) 3 point shooter. And even then his TS was 35 points better than Galloway’s was even while toiling away on a team that was 12-70 and which played Yi Jianlian, Trenton Hassell, Chris Douglas Roberts, Jarvis Hayes, Terrence Williams, and Josh Boone >1000 minutes.

      in addition, I specifically said just for the next 2 years, not for anything beyond that (since Galloway’s contract was for just 2 years).

      I like Galloway – watched him in person at Westchester, followed his career closely here. He’s a nice player, but he’s a below average shooter, poor distributor for a guy who has the ball in his hands more than he should, not quick enough to stop 1’s, and has marginal size at the 2. He’s a 4th or 5th guard on a good team.

    6. Even so, saying that we “mortgaged the future” is pretty alarmist. A better way of putting it is that we may have delayed reaching the goal of having a perennial contending team by a couple of years, unless everything works out positively.

      I don’t even see how we’ve delayed anything — unless you allow the possibility of a Melo trade, which of course was never going to happen, or more tanking (ie. to a top 3 pick), which definitely could not happen unless there were catastrophic injuries to Melo, KP, and Lopez. In what world were we going to contend with the old team faster than this new team?

      True contention probably is not in the future of this current team, but it wasn’t with the old team either. True contention will only happen in the next 2 years if Chris Paul decides to join this team (small chance) or if Derrick Rose somehow returns to MVP form (extremely unlikely, barely even possible IMHO even as an optimist). Otherwise it was always going to be 3+ years down the road if/when KP turns into Dirk+defense and/if we draft well.

      If anything, this current team has more disaster potential than the old team – ie. if Rose/Noah/Melo DO go down with injuries, or if Rose is truly awful like he has been the last couple years and Noah/Melo go down with injuries. And of course, true disaster –> high draft pick –> higher chance of building an “organically grown” contender.

    7. I made the mistake of clicking on the Kuz article. I genuinely do not believe that Tommy Dee knows what advanced statistics are.

    8. lol you’re picking literally the 1 season out of his 7 in which he was a league average (or below) 3 point shooter. And even then his TS was 35 points better than Galloway’s was even while toiling away on a team that was 12-70 and which played Yi Jianlian, Trenton Hassell, Chris Douglas Roberts, Jarvis Hayes, Terrence Williams, and Josh Boone >1000 minutes.

      I’m trying to show you that the idea that Langston Galloway is extremely unlikely to be better than Courtney Lee is odd, because he’s arguably better than Lee was when they were at the same point in their career. Yes, Langston is not a great passer-but he’s a much better passer than Courtney Lee. He’s also a better rebounder, and at this point he’s probably a better defender as well. He just can’t shoot. Maybe he never will. But if he does improve his shot just a bit he will likely outproduce Courtney Lee. How likely is it that a 24 year old guard will improve his shooting? Extremely unlikely?

    9. Melo very well might be better at the 4, but that’s not where he’s going to be playing this season unless people get hurt.

    10. But Courtney Lee did get better and better to get to a point where he’s actually a good NBA player. And he’s going to remain a good NBA player (barring injury) for the duration of his contract. I swear people on this board are so ageist. Everyone acts like any player past the age of 28 is on the decline when its just not true. Yes, once you hit your late 20s/early 30s you hit your athletic peak and you start to decline. But that decline is slow if you take care of your body, which most proven NBA players who didn’t just come out as freak athletes do. And you more than make up for the slight decline with the knowledge of the game that you have as a veteran. It really isn’t until say 33 or 34 that you really have to worry about a player declining quickly. Having a handful of players who are 30, 31, 32 is not the same as having the 2013 Knicks where the players were 37,38, and 39. There’s a world of difference between early 30s and late 30s (take it from a non athlete who is now 38. I wish I was in my early 30s!…it didn’t feel any different than my mid 20s as far as my body).

      Yes Galloway could improve and I was really hoping we would figure out a way to keep him as our back up 2. But there’s also the flip side which is that there are a TON of Galloways who never get any better than they are. Lee is a great SG and is going to be a solid contributor for us. He’s a major upgrade and he’s reasonably priced.

    11. True contention probably is not in the future of this current team, but it wasn’t with the old team either. True contention will only happen in the next 2 years if Chris Paul decides to join this team (small chance) or if Derrick Rose somehow returns to MVP form (extremely unlikely, barely even possible IMHO even as an optimist). Otherwise it was always going to be 3+ years down the road if/when KP turns into Dirk+defense and/if we draft well.

      EXACTLY. People act like we’ve mortgaged the future to win now. We haven’t. We’ve just put together a team that is more likely to compete for the playoffs now than what we had last year. No picks were traded away. And we have the main piece that will determine whether we compete for the next decade or not anyways in KP. We have 3 draft picks this year.

      I actually love where we are because of the Rose trade. Melo is tradeable. Rose we don’t have to resign. Noah is the biggest risk IMO but if he can stay on the court he’s easily tradeable. Lee is a reasonable contract and good piece. Jennings is a one year option. If things go south we can trade Melo, not resign Rose and tank the second half of the season for a high draft pick and rebuild around KP. If we do well and make the playoffs we can get a mid first rounder in a deep draft, two second rounders, not resign Rose and get CP3 (Melo’s buddy) and take another step forward next year. All the while we are developing KP, giving him games that matter and are competitive, add picks and youth. You can be a good team and build for the future. The options aren’t just compete for a title or tank.

    12. Yes Galloway could improve and I was really hoping we would figure out a way to keep him as our back up 2. But there’s also the flip side which is that there are a TON of Galloways who never get any better than they are. Lee is a great SG and is going to be a solid contributor for us. He’s a major upgrade and he’s reasonably priced.

      This is/was precisely my thinking. This board (and perhaps rightfully so) is obsessed with future potential over current production — let’s trade Melo for a bunch of picks, let’s tank multiple years in a row. Now while that process may be statistically correct (not a given), it is not a certainty. Plenty of teams have tried to blow it up and have failed miserably. Plenty of players have been signed/drafted/etc. based on potential but have not lived up to it.

      In terms of 24 year olds who have played the # of minutes Galloway has but have been such bad shooters — here is the list for the last 20 seasons of guards who in their age 24 season played 1600+ minutes and put up a 2p%<43 and a TS<50.

      Hinrich
      John Salmons
      Earl watson
      Tony Delk
      Brevin Knight
      Kemba Walker
      Brandon Jennings
      Evan Turner
      Dion Waiters
      Bobby Jackson
      Anthony Carter
      and Langston Galloway

      Other than Brandon Jennings, who'll definitely have an EFG of 52 and shoot 40% from 3 this coming season, I don't see a whole lot of historical "shooting hope" at this point for Langston.

      The other thing, which speaks more to how sucky our team has been, is that a surprisingly few amount of players actually get to play 20+ min/game when their shooting sucks that badly.

    13. Lee, while not necessarily overpaid in this market, is no bargain either. He’s getting top dollar for what he is.

      He is absolutely a bargain and he’s not getting close to top dollar if you look at other wings around the league. Guys that shoot near 40% from 3 and are average to above average defensively are going to get paid. He got less money in terms of AAV than Turner, Gordon, Bazemore, Batum (5/$120m!), DeRozan (5/$145m!), Tyler Johnson, Crabbe, Fournier, etc. I’d prefer some of those guys over him, but considering the contract value the only one that’s a clear cut better option to me is Fournier.

      http://basketball.realgm.com/analysis/243069/Solving-The-Knicks-Offense-With-Carmelo-Anthony-As-Stretch-Four

      Yeah, that’s all well and good but we can still spread the floor for Melo with KP at the 4 and we’ll use alignments with him as a nominal 4 with KP at the 5 as well. I also think an article that delves into the value of Melo at the 4 that doesn’t bother to discuss the potential wear and tear playing that spot, the impact on team rebounding and thinks Melo next to KP or Noah at the 5 is a better defensive alignment than Melo at the 3 next to KP and Noah has already decided what the right play is without bothering to do a real analysis.

      I want to see Melo at the 4 a bit too, but both him and the Knicks can be just fine with him at the 3 as well.

    14. This board (and perhaps rightfully so) is obsessed with future potential over current production — let’s trade Melo for a bunch of picks, let’s tank multiple years in a row.

      Except when we’re not, like:

      Derrick Rose was awful last year; he might be good next year.

    15. It’s ridiculous to think Jose Calderon helped the offense because he couldn’t shoot enough to make his efficient shooting matter, so it’s good that we got Courtney Lee, who shoots just a little more often but not quite as well.

    16. KNICKERBLOGGER- Billboard – Music Charts

      Number 1 for 6 straight weeks the 36rpm maxi single:

      A side: Derrick Rose was awful last year / B side: We’re all going to die

    17. What is the probability that Jerian Grant will be anything but a backup PG in this league?

      Higher than the possibility that Rose will ever approach average again. Young backup PG on a rookie deal, that has actual positive value.

      Remind me again how we mortgaged our future?

      We handed out long contracts for too much money to guys on the wrong side of thirty. We gave up out very good center who was still fairly young and looked to outplay the value of his contract significantly for the duration of it (and who had good defensive chemistry with KP, defending the rim being the one thing the Knicks were actually good at last year) for a shot at a guy who was pretty good (if inefficient) for a couple of years before injuries destroyed his career. We replaced that center with a 4 year deal to a 5 years older player who used to be great but is injuries and years from actually being great.

      In what world were we going to contend with the old team faster than this new team?

      You don’t think that tying up money in guys past their prime will impact our ability to be better 3 years down the road? You do know that the cap is no longer rising, right?

      But Courtney Lee did get better and better to get to a point where he’s actually a good NBA player.

      And Galloway has been improving. And NBA players tend to decline past a certain age.

      You can be a good team and build for the future. The options aren’t just compete for a title or tank.

      I don’t want to tank for multiple years, it isn’t an especially effective method. I want to be a good team and build toward the future. The headline moves this off season make us a worse team. Particularly Rose and Noah, Lee not so much. Without the Rose and Noah trade and with the rest, Horny, Jennings, back of the roster, the Knicks are probably a 40 – 46 win team. With them, we’re closer to…

    18. @DRed

      Courtney Lee doesn’t run point. He’s not bringing the ball up on every possession and pounding the rock for half a possession without doing anything with it. He’s also not a god awful defensive player that is getting lit up by scrubs every night. If Jose was a competent defender he’d be a good value player, but because he fucking blows defensively unless he can up his usage or create more for others he’s a drain as a starting point.

    19. He is absolutely a bargain and he’s not getting close to top dollar if you look at other wings around the league. Guys that shoot near 40% from 3 and are average to above average defensively are going to get paid. He got less money in terms of AAV than Turner, Gordon, Bazemore, Batum (5/$120m!), DeRozan (5/$145m!), Tyler Johnson, Crabbe, Fournier, etc. I’d prefer some of those guys over him, but considering the contract value the only one that’s a clear cut better option to me is Fournier.

      The big difference between Lee and most of the guys you listed is age, Lee will be 31 before the season starts and 35 at the end of his contract. All the guys you list are 27 or less. It’s also noteworthy that certain advanced stats don’t speak that highly of Lee, either last year or for his career.

      WS48: Last year .080, career .088
      PER: last year 11.5, career 12.1
      DRtg: last year 109, career 107

      I guess in terms of what was available and the deals the above guys signed, he’s reasonably good value for the current market. But in years 3 and 4, I thinks it’s better than even money that we would have trouble dumping his salary.

    20. While I’ll miss Galloway and I wish we kept him, we couldn’t give him a 2-year deal with a 2nd year player option because we had to use EB rights to sign him and I think there’s a reasonable possibility that Randle, Baker or both can effectively replace him and we won’t miss a thing.

    21. This board (and perhaps rightfully so) is obsessed with future potential over current production.

      Did you miss the part where people are upset because Rose flat out sucks and Lopez is better than Noah? The players we had were better than the players we acquired.

    22. I guess in terms of what was available and the deals the above guys signed, he’s reasonably good value for the current market. But in years 3 and 4, I thinks it’s better than even money that we would have trouble dumping his salary.

      Fair enough. I’m not as worried about him suffering a big drop off because I think his style of game is one that should age reasonably well, but that’s a legitimate concern. That’s roughly equal to $8m AAV on the previous cap, so I see it as a good deal considering the market.

    23. What I don’t understand is the argument that you and others have made where you wave away Jose’s excellent 3 point shooting by saying he doesn’t shoot enough, but then laud a guy who shoots less often for his 3 point shooting, which is not as good as Jose’s.

    24. Lopez is better than Noah? The players we had were better than the players we acquired.

      This is certainly debatable. Over the next 3 years Lopez will probably outproduce Noah, but Noah-if healthy-should outproduce him next year, at least.

      There’s also a pretty decent chance that other guy we got will outproduce Grant & Jose.

    25. I guess in terms of what was available and the deals the above guys signed, he’s reasonably good value for the current market. But in years 3 and 4, I thinks it’s better than even money that we would have trouble dumping his salary.

      Agreed. I also tend to think that the big contracts we saw this summer will end up being outliers, and the market will balance back a little. Lots of money plus small available talent pool led to some excesses.

      While I’ll miss Galloway and I wish we kept him, we couldn’t give him a 2-year deal with a 2nd year player option because we had to use EB rights to sign him

      Because we traded for Rose and then paid to much to Noah to replace Lopez, and still had to fill every hole we came into the off-season with. Spending time and resources developing players and then making it impossible for your team to retain them is a self-inflicted wound.

    26. Because they play different positions and have different roles. If Jose shot the same amount but was racking up more assists that’d be fine. If he could play defense reasonably well at his position that’d be great. If he didn’t dominate the ball when he was on the floor by leading the team in time of possession that would help too.

      Lee gets up the same shot attempts without controlling the ball for possessions, he’s not a defensive sieve that submarines the defense and he plays the 2. How is this difficult to understand?

    27. Higher than the possibility that Rose will ever approach average again.

      Only in your judgment. You think he is a legless corpse of a once dominant PG. Some stats and scouting reports say otherwise.

      Tell me, if Rose plays above average, will you (et. al.) admit that Phil was right and you were wrong, or will you cop out behind some BS excuse-making, like it was just dumb luck, Phil drew to an inside straight, or hit on 17 with the dealer showing a 6 and got a 3…

    28. Because we traded for Rose and then paid to much to Noah to replace Lopez, and still had to fill every hole we came into the off-season with. Spending time and resources developing players and then making it impossible for your team to retain them is a self-inflicted wound.

      We were using EB rights regardless of how we proceeded to retain Galloway. We gave up matching rights on him to create cap space and also probably as a bet they could replace his production at a lower price point if he got an offer they couldn’t match structurally or monetarily.

      My opinion is that Baker and/or Randle can replace Galloway’s production on a more favorable contract. You seem to believe losing Galloway is a bad decision because we won’t be able to replace his production. We’ll find out soon enough who’s right.

    29. The thing about Lopez is that he is a very poor perimeter defender on the P&R and is virtually useless in an uptempo offense (doesn’t run well or get defensive rebounds relative to others. Noah is still much better at defending the roll man on a P&R or the pop man on a P&P, and a much, MUCH better defensive rebounder. Noah also runs out on the break better. So if the team wants to create more pace, you can make a strong argument that Noah is the better fit. If the team’s perimeter players are not great defenders on the high P&R, that is also an advantage for Noah.

    30. Why do you keep talking about defense? I’m talking about shooting. Jose shot 3s and handed out assists at pretty much a league average rate for PGs. Which is pretty much the same for Lee for SGs, although a bit worse. So why is Jose’s shooting so much less helpful?

      For what it’s worth, Jose held the ball for less time while creating more assists than either Derek Rose or Brandon Jennings last year.

    31. I was out of the country for the last 11 days with very limited internet access. Saturday night, I was able to access the internet, so I checked in with knickerblogger to see if I had missed anything. Apparently not, since the threads that I read from Friday and Saturday were almost verbatim repeats of the threads from the prior Friday and Saturday (and the several Fridays and Saturdays before that). It looks like we’ve pretty much run out of things to say here — at least until training camp is getting ready to start, at which time we will probably be able to come up with a whole new set of arguments about why Rose does or doesn’t suck (or, more likely, how badly he sucks).

    32. Fact: If you try to convince us that Calderon had ANY redeeming value at all, it is effort in vain. It was plain to anyone with any basketball IQ to realize how awful he was. Don’t compare him to Rose – it falls on deaf ears. You might as well try and prove that the earth is flat.

      I agree with the arguments that we have NOT mortgaged the future. I am optimistic about the upcoming season because 1) I think we’ll be good 2) I think we have a future.

      We may not have Rose or Jennings or a number of others that are on the roster this year going forward, but their presence does not inhibit us from a bright future.

    33. Why do you keep talking about defense? I’m talking about shooting. Jose shot 3s and handed out assists at pretty much a league average rate for PGs. Which is pretty much the same for Lee for SGs, although a bit worse. So why is Jose’s shooting so much less helpful?

      Because my entire point is that Jose’s lack of shooting was a detriment given his other shortcomings. If Jose Calderon had been an adequate defensive player and/or a bit more able to create for others than that’d have been fine and we should have kept him for another year. He wasn’t any of those things, so the fact that he shot a nice percentage from 3 didn’t offset his negative contributions because he couldn’t up his volume.

      For what it’s worth, Jose held the ball for less time while creating more assists than either Derek Rose or Brandon Jennings last year.

      Are you talking about totals?

      Rose controlled the ball the most out of those 3 and Calderon edged him in assists per 100 possessions (7.6 to 7.4). Jennings blew both out of the water with 9.8 assists/100 possessions. He also controlled the ball less per game than Jose (3.9 MPG to 4.4 MPG), but also played 10 less minutes per game so you’re probably right that Jennings controlled the ball more, but he also created a lot more for others with his touches than Jose.

    34. Tell me, if Rose plays above average, will you (et. al.) admit that Phil was right and you were wrong, or will you cop out behind some BS excuse-making, like it was just dumb luck, Phil drew to an inside straight, or hit on 17 with the dealer showing a 6 and got a 3…

      If Rose plays at an average level I will be amazed, but remain unforgiving because it still wasn’t worth what we gave up. If he plays at an above average level (actual decent defense, good TS, favorable ast/to) then I will be completely astounded, and will admit if provided evidence that there was non-publicaly available knowledge at work and it was not in fact just ‘dumb luck’ that Phil was right and I was wrong. Fuck up enough and you need to do more than get one thing right, you have to show your work. If we then resign him and a couple years down the road we are far worse off than we are now (as looks probable at this point) and have squandered the beginnings of KP’s prime and have to ‘rebuild’ once again, i.e. continue our cycle of trying to ‘win now’ every 3-4 years, I will revert to saying this was the moment where Jackson, like all the others before him, took our promising future and wiped his ass with it.

    35. We may not have Rose or Jennings or a number of others that are on the roster this year going forward, but their presence does not inhibit us from a bright future.

      If we didn’t have Rose we could have had Jennings on a reasonable multi-year deal, which could have helped us have a future. Signing a bunch of guys on Melo’s timeline is like wearing shades inside. The future’s not that bright, we’re just being ironic.

    36. Lavor, I was using seth partnow’s true usage shit from Nylon Calculus. Jose created an assist chance every 27 seconds he had the ball. Rose and Jennings were at 32 and 35 seconds, respectively. Jose posessed the ball 16% of the time he was on the court, with Rose and Jennings holding it 18 and 23%, respectively. It may be that lobbing the ball to Andre Drummond is a better way of generating assists than passing it to Kristaps out at the 3 point line.

    37. Jennings played more minutes in Orlando than Detroit though and he came off the bench so he had to play with Aron Baynes instead of Drummond at times.

      I have a difficult time using the interfaces on Nylon Calculus a lot of the time, but maybe I’m just an idiot.

    38. No, it’s not you it’s a huge pain in the ass, and pretty unusable unless you’re at a computer.

      Aron Baynes was low key quite good last year.

    39. Oh yeah, Baynes is fine, but Jennings’ assist rate actually increased a lot in Orlando versus Detroit. They were really small samples (both under 500 minutes), but he was averaging 8.5 ast/100 possessions in Detroit and 11.1 ast/100 possessions in Orlando.

    40. My larger point is that you’re knocking Jose for doing things that he wasn’t actually bad at (holding the ball too long, not generating assists, not shooting enough 3s) and he was better or at least very similar at those things than his replacements. I know he was a terrible defender, but he was a pretty useful player on offense. Useful enough to offset his defense? I don’t know, but I don’t think he was as terrible as you seem to think he was. Certainly he wasn’t bad enough that we couldn’t have just eaten his last year.

    41. Yeah, that’s fine. I think Jose was awful and completely limited and the original comparison to Lee is irrelevant because Lee isn’t stepping into the same role as Jose or be a well below average defensive player at his position.

    42. As discussed – the Lee vs. Calderon conversation is not totally useful because they do completely different things on the court.

      And for all the (mostly correct) things that Grocer wrote in #18, I still have trouble finding a path to “true contention” with Jerian Grant and Robin Lopez. I feel very comfortable saying that the only visible paths to true contention = at least 2 out of these 3: signing CP3 next year, drafting extremely well, or KP becoming a bonafide superstar. I don’t think the Rose trade affects any of those things.

      And I still have trouble coming up with the math on how 31 (Noah’s age) – 28 (Lopez’s age) = 5, but I guess I’m not that good at advanced stats.

    43. The only thing that upsets me is that we still have 3 solid months before we get to watch this dumpster fire of a “playoff contender.”

    44. I’m amazed that I can avoid knickerblogger for two weeks and see similar, if not the same arguments when I return.
      And we are three months from the first regular season tip-off.
      And while the depth of the data is better than when I was a kid, the arguments are not unlike those I had with my friends as a kid about which teams are better and which players we liked most.
      See, while the data is better, at best you’re all guessing. Advanced stats ideologues are not unlike economists: They can look at data and see completely different things.
      Except most economists are smart enough to apply the ‘on the one hand, but on the other’ approach.
      Here, people just dig in.

      I think we’ll be modestly better than last year, with an equal chance we could suck as bad as last year or be among the second tier of good teams in the east. My median is modestly better than last year, or maybe 40 wins.
      My low end is 32 wins and my high end is 48 wins.
      I think Melo will have a solid year, not unlike last year, but his usage will slip a bit.
      KP will improve and play more consistently.
      It likely will take a quarter of the year for this squad to gel, but they could be a very good team if they establish a strong defensive presence with Noah and KP in the paint. But I don’t think we become a very good team. I hope I’m wrong.

      I think the low end is where we end up if the injury bug haunts us.
      Wild cards: Rose, KP, Jennings, Hernangomez.

    45. The constant bickering, supported as it is by cherry-picked stats, makes us look as neurotic little rats running an endless argument loop inside Jackson’s demented lab. Afflalo is terrible at this, but he is great when shooting from the left right before the second 3 Equis commercial, Stephenson would be a great pickup because he has never been a good team player, but what if becomes a different person? Calderon is a great shooter but he plays no defense, etc., etc.

      The bigger picture and cause for concern is that we have a different team every season and the only constant is a terrible record. Yes, Calderon sucks, but he was abad player when Jackson got him. Who is responsible for it? Lopey sucks, but he was a journeyman when Jackson got him. Whose fault is it? Afflalo, Derrick Williams, Grant, all the former Knicks we trash and the ones we’ll be trashing once the season begins are here because of Jackson.

      At what point do we stop arguing about TS% vs Defensive Prowess and look at the simple, obvious reality that our team is just a bunch of mediocre players and has-beens?

      Aren’t we what our record says we are? Who is responsible for 17 and 32? Who is worse, Rose or thecguy who brought him here?

    46. So, Willy gets few minutes in game 1 and none in game 2, and Spain loses both. Cause-effect relationship?
      :-)
      Whoever said that trying to argue that Calderon is a better basketball player than Lee is like arguing that the earth is flat made a pretty good analogy, methinks.

    47. Frank-O, you are 100% correct. I’ve limited my posts this summer because there’s nothing new. It’s all prognostication. We’re all just looking into a crystal ball. Yeah, the 32-48 range is about right. It translates to a range of 9 games under .500 and 7 games over.

    48. @49

      I was wondering when your strawman rant of the day was coming. Usually comes earlier in the day.

    49. @52
      Actually, I’m waiting for the answer to 49. Is it Obama? James Dolan? It’s a mystery!

    50. The play-by-play guy sounds like a Brit soccer guy who never did a basketball game before.

    51. Very entertaining games today. Brazil-Spain was a nailbiter with the home team winning by 1 on a tip-in. Now Nigeria has a 5-pt lead on heavily favored Lithuania via sheer grit and hustle.

    52. How did you watch the Nigeria’s game? I couldn’t find it live and NBC didn’t seem to be streaming it.

    53. Kuz had a nice game against Nigeria for whatever that’s worth. 8 points, 5 boards and 2 assists (although 2 turnovers) in only 15 minutes.

    54. On the subject of Calderon, everyone agreed last year that he was bad and the league does too, because Chicago paid two second round picks to get rid of contract. Now all of a sudden he has good points. I predict that if we suddenly hired LeBron as a free agent, people would say we paid too much, he was too old; and, if we actually gave him a no-trade clause, what a disaster. I keep trying to discuss possible recruits and other potentially available players, but the blog always goes back to the same arguments

    55. I’ve posed this question to the Rose crowd many times before and it always goes unanswered: if Rose is league average or better, do you support signing him to a long term extension?

      This is why there’s such a narrow range of possibilities in which the trade actually turns out well. Rose could exceed all expectations this year and still turn out to be a poor acquisition. Let’s be clear; if Rose plays half decently the narrative will be entirely on his side and he’ll get a boatload of money if not a max (it will probably be a max/close to it). Hell, he’s already revealed that he’s planning on holding out for max money in response to being asked about his sexual assault case.

      I find it really unlikely that Rose will walk if he miraculously plays well. I mean, is Phil really gonna trade assets for a guy, have that guy play as well as he was hoping for…and then let him walk after one year? If that happens, we’ll still have lost the deal because we gave up assets for one year of league average point guard play. That’s still not good!

      Here are the two ways the Rose trade can turn out well that don’t involve him being so damn bad that he nets us a high pick:
      1) He’s decent/good, the team is decent/good, and Chris Paul replaces him next season. Basically, the classic Knicks pipe dream that never actually comes to fruition.
      2) He’s decent/good, we sign him to a reasonable deal, and he actually is productive for the majority of the deal. Does anyone regard this as anything but an absurd long shot?

    56. everyone agreed last year that he was bad and the league does too, because Chicago paid two second round picks to get rid of contract.

      And we paid one first round pick for Bargnani.

      NBA GMs do stupid shit all the time.

      Not that I want Calderon on my team, but this appeal of authority is really tiresome.

    57. I don’t regard it as that much of a long shot, but I’m positive I’m in the minority on that. If he played decent/good over let’s say 70 games I think we could get him back on a reasonable contract. It’s not like the people on this blog are the only humans in the world that watch basketball that’d be apprehensive about giving Rose a big contract considering his injury history. I’m sure plenty of FOs around the league would be extremely hesitant to make a run at Rose given his past injuries.

    58. Not that I want Calderon on my team, but this appeal of authority is really tiresome.

      This is an example of the bullshit that one has to put up with to read this blog. My point was that everyone last year on this blog agreed that we needed someone better than Calderon. The point about GMs agreeing was only supporting evidence. If you are saying you were different, quote a post of yours from during last season where you supported keeping Calderon. Otherwise stop twisting my words.

    59. @ 45, yeah, bad at math there, got carried away.

      I don’t think there’s an A then B then C = competitive path marked out with Lopez and Grant, there’s obviously no guarantees. With your specific moves we’ve got less cap space for next season as a result of our headline moves which does make CP3 harder (I don’t think we can offer him a max) though I don’t think that was likely anyway. I suspect it’ll make our draft position better. I do think that we were fairly well placed to try to start peaking in 2-3 years time – try to develop internally (KP plus long shots plus draftees), sign solid role players on good contracts, make ourselves an attractive destination for excellent FA talent at the right moment to take advantage of the assets we had. It looked like that’s what we were doing. And then we reversed course, jettisoned youth and good players on value contracts for oft injured guys on the decline on long contracts so we could win now, and pushed back that window where we could position ourselves as attractive a couple years. If I’m CP3 or any other FA I look at the Knicks and see constant roster churn and a team that doesn’t have a plan making desperation moves.

      I hope we do well this season. Noah is fun to watch. Looking forward to seeing Lee play. Rose is, well it might be entertaining. KP is super fun, and the kids should be fun to root for if they get any burn. It’s hard to see an upward trajectory and I struggle to see how the Knicks are actually trying to build a contender vs. just get big names in an attempt to fill seats the easy way. But hey, it only matters if you care! Maybe this is Jackson trying to teach fans to be more zen about their basketball.

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