1. Defensive Rank 5.5th (under = better)
I’m kinda shocked by this one, because I took the under. Sure staying a top 5 defense season after season is difficult. Add in the injury to Shumpert and the over seems entirely probably.
On the other hand the offseason was mostly about adding defensive depth. When Tyson sits out a handful of games, the Knicks won’t be resorting to Jorts to start. It’ll be Camby or ‘Sheed or Kurt. There won’t be a Billy Walker to start in 8 games. Instead it’ll be White or Brewer. Defensively, they’re better in the middle and on the wings. This is a tremendous defensive upgrade in both personnel and overall team structure.
Depth counts, because when a starter is out, the 6th, 7th, or 8th guy gets his name announced while the laser show is going on. But just as importantly the 9th, 10th, or 11th guy has to step up & play more minutes as well. And this Knicks team is better defensively 6-11 than they were last year.
2. Offensive Rank 15th (under = better)
I took the over, but the rest of the gang is split on this one.
Here’s my thinking: New York concentrated on the defensive end, and that’ll hurt them on offense. Sure Landry Fields will be gone, as will Jeffries, Douglas, and Bibby who were all mediocre to horrendous on offense. But it’s not like they went out to get some great scorers. Felton had a ts% of 49.1 which was worse than Fields’ 50.6%. And Raymond averages nearly 3 more shots per 36 minutes, which means from a shooting perspective he’s a bigger drag on the offense. Brewer, the guy we collectively penciled in as the starting SG, shot a 50.5% ts%.
As for another scorer the Knicks lost, if you throw out Renaldo Balkman and Jerome Jordan, Jeremy Lin was 3rd on the team in ts% last year. He also took the 6th most shots on the season. Sure Lin might not have repeated those numbers, but then again no one else likely will either.
And with all this, the team only ranked 17th last year. It’s going to take a Herculean effort from Carmelo, a big step forward for Shumpert, a return to the past for Amar’e Stoudemire or a career year from a guy like Felton to move up past 15th. It could happen, but I wouldn’t bet on it.
3. Regular Season Wins vs. Miami .5
Brian Cronin says:
I find it extremely difficult to believe that the Knicks won’t get a win against Miami. I’d have put the over/under at 1.5. Will the Knicks split the season series? Now that’d be a lot tougher (I think I’d take the under).
I was the lone dissenter. Miami swept the regular season series last year and won 4 of 5 in the playoffs. That means they have a 62% chance of winning all 4 games against the Knicks. Which means Vegas is with me on this one.
4. Regular Season Wins vs. Lakers .5
Same with this one.
5. Wins 45
I took the over partially based on the answer to #1. Depth will be the key this year. Sure these vets are a little past their prime. But the reason for getting kids is because they’ll grow into something special, and clearly after the Lin debacle there is no hope for this team to keep a good young player. So why bother?
Additionally the top of the league just got a little worse. You don’t have to worry about Orlando anymore. Atlanta can’t replace Joe Johnson with Kyle Korver and John Jenkins (yet). Rose is out until January-ish. Bynum will likely miss 15-30 games. I have no faith in Avery Johnson being the coach that makes those guys work cohesively in New Jersey.
So really it’s part the Knicks got better, part the best teams in the Eastern Conference got worse. At least for this season. But for all the optimism I can muster, I would cap their wins at 50. Let’s not get too cocky here.
6. Playoff wins 4.5
Yeah I said under.
First off there’s no guarantee the Knicks will get past the first round. It’s entirely feasible that they get the 5th or 6th seed and have to play on the road to get those first 4 wins.
Additionally even if they do get the home court advantage, then they’ll very likely have to beat the Heat or a Rose-ful Bulls in round 2 on the road. Sure they’ll only need to win one game at home for this to be over.
So yeah, I guess I can see both sides, hence why it’s so close. But I’ll stay with the under.
Which Question Did The KnickerBloggers Get Wrong?
- They won't win a second round game. (26%, 40 Votes)
- Knicks will have at least the 5th best D. (15%, 23 Votes)
- Knicks will have a better than average offense. (15%, 23 Votes)
- The Heat will sweep the Knicks during the season. (15%, 23 Votes)
- The Knicks will beat the Lakers once. (12%, 19 Votes)
- 44 wins or less. (12%, 18 Votes)
- Perfect-a-mundo! (6%, 10 Votes)
Total Voters: 155