Initially he was projected to be re-evaluated in 6-8 weeks, then got a second surgery on the left ankle, then projected to return in December, then January, now February.

He was never projected to return in December. He was projected to be re-evaluated, which is very different.

It’s at least possible that the defense starts playing radically better than it has. Maybe you buy into the anti-ISM argument, and believe that opponents have been very lucky on tightly guarded 3PA. Maybe you buy into the idea that the team is gelling better on defense and is benefitting from time playing together, and think that there is further gelling to be had. Maybe you believe that Mitch will come back before the season ends and makes an impact. I don’t really buy into any of those ideas to be honest, but I see how somebody could.

I believe all those things! At least to a degree. Call me Pollyanna, but yes, I do expect them to continue to gel throughout the season. For one, it’s been a hallmark of Thibs’ teams, which always play considerably better in April than October. For two, we had two new starters! With a third who hadn’t been here long! It’s reasonable to believe they need time to learn each other’s tendencies – look at that OG article a few days ago; do you really think these guys aren’t deeply attentive to everything that’s happening? They need to learn to play together and communicate. It seems to be happening.

And yeah, just as much as ISM wasn’t real, neither is anti-ISM. Those numbers will regress.

As for Mitch, that’s mostly Hopium, since two ankle surgeries and 9 months to heal isn’t a great sign. But it’s at least minimally possible that the team is being extra cautious after the setback in last year’s playoffs, and his management is being careful about his future and also making it harder for him to be traded. 100%? No, but more than 10%. And if he does return, he brings exactly what we’re missing. Lots of flexibility on lineups big/small, strong defense, offensive rebounding, someone to spell KAT who isn’t a G-league player in disguise.

If it weren’t for 40 years telling us otherwise, that would all be pretty credible!

It’s at least possible that the defense starts playing radically better than it has. Maybe you buy into the anti-ISM argument, and believe that opponents have been very lucky on tightly guarded 3PA. Maybe you buy into the idea that the team is gelling better on defense and is benefitting from time playing together, and think that there is further gelling to be had. Maybe you believe that Mitch will come back before the season ends and makes an impact. I don’t really buy into any of those ideas to be honest, but I see how somebody could.

We’re the #14 defense in the league right now and have faced the easiest schedule in the NBA, so we’d have to improve an awful lot to be something like the true #8 defense in the league or whatever the threshold is for true contention.

I haven’t done the deepest dive but I’m pretty sure no team has ever won the title with a defense this bad unless they had someone who might be the best player in the world.

the playoffs start in April

It’s year one. We don’t know what this team could be yet.