https://x.com/hyattwatcher/status/1864012009575985219?t=PwnzuDmjGSSfpGpZCNKaqA&s=19

Amusing comparisons that only increase the doubt around AIO numbers…

Which is why we don’t think much of BPM. The problem is that DARKO and EPM (as of this season) don’t isolate seasons. They use data from previous seasons to inform their player evaluations. So if I want to see how someone is doing this season, and only this season, OBPM is readily available.

DARKO is much higher on Brunson and Brown than Pritchard and Hart.

EPM is much higher on Brown than Hart and much higher on Brunson than Pritchard. Weirdly, EPM is higher on Pritchard than Brown. I remain a little skeptical of EPM following this offseason’s rework.

Of course, Pritchard is playing insanely well, and Brown does have a 96 TS+ right now.

Ok but Sengun is actually pretty good defensively, EPM has him as an 89th percentile defender

Which is a big step down from saying he’s the 2nd best defender in the league, having the 60th best defensive season of any NBA player ever, a better defensive season than Ewing or Gobert ever had and just a smidge behind Ben Wallace’s best season.

Coincidentally, this season Tari Eason is 1st, Thompson is 5th, and FVV is 15th.

Amusing comparisons that only increase the doubt around AIO numbers…

Why? Hart has played out of his mind and Brown has played poorly by his standards. It shouldn’t be surprising that AIOs like Hart.

Similarly, Pritchard has played out of his mind while Brunson hasn’t been quite as great as he was last season.

Which is why we don’t use BPM.

Ok but Sengun is actually pretty good defensively, EPM has him as an 89th percentile defender

Amusing comparisons that only increase the doubt around AIO numbers…

Ok but even that is better than any player in the history of our team except Brunson, King, prime Ewing, and the very tip top peak of Carmelo Anthony.

With this year’s 7.4 BPM he’d be our franchise GOAT. Jokic being much better is more a commentary on how amazing Jokic is.

Which is why we don’t use BPM.

Sengun is not worth 3.3 DBPM. He’s surrounded by a bunch of elite defenders and BPM shrugs its shoulders and says, “If he’s on the floor he gets the same amount of credit.” Is it Sengun or is it Eason, Brooks, FVV, and Thompson? It’s a mystery to BPM.

He’s a discount Jokic during a Black Friday sale when they need to clear the shelves for a new model.

Ok but even that is better than any player in the history of our team except Brunson, King, prime Ewing, and the very tip top peak of Carmelo Anthony.

With this year’s 7.4 BPM he’d be our franchise GOAT. Jokic being much better is more a commentary on how amazing Jokic is.

Obviously Jokic’s improvement from that high starting point was improbable, and pretty much unprecedented as it relates to passing and shooting efficiency, but just the fact that Sengun isn’t far off is very impressive.

He’s worth 70% of Jokic by the metric you included. It’s 58% if we go by OBPM under the pretty reasonable assumption that the defensive value is misattributed from Eason, Thompson, FVV, and Brooks’s defense.

He’s a discount Jokic during a Black Friday sale when they need to clear the shelves for a new model.