This year so far it’s -3.0.

Consistent and repeatable across every season of his career that I looked at.

you checked the box that only includes games he played, but important information comes when you see what happens when a player is out and his teammates play without him. excluding those minutes leaves you with both a more confounded and far smaller control sample.

and, yes, there are theoretically confounders that can also seep in through bias from the games not played somehow systematically differing from the games played sample, but it is easy to show that those effects are almost always far smaller over large samples like this compared to leaning in the collinearity and pruning the sample to only games played. this is why drapm confirms his net effect post lineup/opponent adjustment and regularization.

If you look at the Raps’ opponent offensive rating allowed, it’s lower every year with OG on the floor. This seems like the easiest, most clear cut way to see that stat. Some years more than others, but every season I looked at, the Raps allowed a lower offensive rating with OG on yr floor

The point that you aren’t conceding is that a good team can have a low BPM player play 2000 minutes, even if they are taking up a huge chunk of the cap. Rodman is but one example, and OG is, I think, another, as the Knicks seem to be much better with him on the court ever since he arrived.

Besides, wasn’t your hesitation about paying OG this summer more about durability than about on-court contribution?

forget all the fancy metrics hubert. over the past five seasons across several thousand minutes and amid differing lineup context, og’s teams have allowed over 4 points fewer pts per 100 when he plays than when he sits.

Tell me what I’m doing wrong then bc this looks like over the past 5 years Toronto was actually 0.72 pts better defensively without him:

https://www.pbpstats.com/wowy-combos/nba?TeamId=1610612761&Season=2023-24,2022-23,2021-22,2020-21,2019-20&SeasonType=Regular%2BSeason&PlayerIds=1628384&OnlyCommonGames=true

The Knicks are a good team what is the point of crying about this constantly?

I haven’t initiated a single conversation about OG’s worth. Every day someone comes on here to troll “people” who think we overpaid him.

Stop trolling and this will go away.

Troll every day and it won’t.

X = the impact of one outstanding wing defender is very limited.

forget all the fancy metrics hubert. over the past five seasons across several thousand minutes and amid differing lineup context, og’s teams have allowed over 4 points fewer pts per 100 when he plays than when he sits.

even this year, with its irretrievably noisy sample, og’s team again allows 3 points fewer per 100 when he plays. this, despite the fact that every other nyk starter shows the reverse effect.

four points per 100, or three for that matter, is not a very limited impact. four points of net rating is the difference between 41 and 51 wins and three gets you 48. is it conceivable that a knick team with kat, jalen, mikal, josh and random defender x would suck 3-4 points worse and be bottom 3 in the nba? it sure as hell is. it is almost always possible for a defense to suck worse than it does, and very possible from ours. every point matters.

you’re allowed to doubt it. but the dbpm and the faux syllogisms are bullshit.

Rodman didn’t block shots or get lots of steals, but was one of the greatest positional defenders of his era and played heavy minutes on some of the best defensive teams of all time despite contributing nothing on offense. He was truly a game changing defender, but because DBPM is a boxscore-derived statistic, his career is full of DBPM numbers under 1.0.

DBPM routinely finds players like Darrell Walker and Vinnie Johnson to be Rodman’s equals as defenders.