Comments on: Knicks Morning News (2024.09.05)

By: Early Bird Writes

Early Bird Writes — Thu, 05 Sep 2024 22:28:29 +0000

There’s only 1 pick being made at a time, you really aren’t competing with any other GM. If someone is worth drafting, you better take them. If nobody is worth drafting, then you’re shit out of luck and throw a dart or trade for a top-59 protected future pick and cash

By: Donnie Walsh

Donnie Walsh — Thu, 05 Sep 2024 20:14:00 +0000

with 29 of the best managers,…

Honestly, the dudes that post here for free in their leisure time seem to get this shit right more often than the “best managers”. Everybody here said Doncic over Bagley. That’s the obvious one. But Halliburton went 12th, when KB had him #1; KB let out a collective groan when Kawhi was drafted two spots ahead of Shumpert; and everybody-who-is-anybody here said Bridges over Knox.

By: DRed

DRed — Thu, 05 Sep 2024 19:59:11 +0000

Kristaps took what, 5 or 6 years to develop into a genuinely good player? He had good physical gifts, seems to work hard enough and isn’t a dumb basketball player, but he still had to develop sets of skills that enabled him to use his gifts more effectively. So in some sense he was a bad draft pick-we didn’t get any particularly good play from him, but he also is someone who is a genuinely good NBA basketball player (this is all setting aside his injury problems, which is another issue)

By: Donnie Walsh

Donnie Walsh — Thu, 05 Sep 2024 19:58:05 +0000

I remember Riley wanting Rose so badly that when he landed with the #2 pick he didn’t even want it. He tried trading it and nobody else seemed to want it either. The flags were up about Beasley, despite the numbers.

By: rama

rama — Thu, 05 Sep 2024 19:41:43 +0000

In general physical gifts are prized more than mental. That’s a pretty obvious flaw. JB, Jokic, plenty of examples, with many, maybe more counter-examples of leapers or wingspan or whatever who fail (what up, Frank).

By: Hubert

Hubert — Thu, 05 Sep 2024 19:32:27 +0000

Figuring out what kind of adult a 20 or 21 year old boy will develop into after you make them one of the highest earners in the country overnight strikes me as a pretty difficult moving target to hit. It’s like trying to develop a model to predict who is going to win a basketball game based on the score with 6 minutes left in the 1Q.

Michael Beasley passed drug tests like everyone else during the combine. How could anyone have known weed is what he’d get into once he got rich?

On the flip side, a stiff breeze could have knocked Steph Curry over when he graduated Davidson. How could anyone have known that he’d eventually spend ungodly amounts of time in the weight room developing his strength?

By: Raven is a Big Black Bird

Raven is a Big Black Bird — Thu, 05 Sep 2024 18:59:42 +0000

But Noble, that’s exactly it. They absolutely should have a ‘weed’ factor. The data set of NBA players, boom and bust, seems big enough now that you should be able to do something real with it. I’d flip it from how you describe it though, the predictive models based on what they’ve done to date in college or whatever. Start with all the why’s for guys who should have made it but didn’t. And all the guys who made it but disappointed. And all the guys who shouldn’t have made it but did. and I suppose the guys who should have made it and did, maybe something interesting will pop up there. Then apply what you’ve found (if anything useful) to potential draftees.

Who knows, maybe most players who are left-handed and start by mostly only going left will usually make it but disappoint (I see you, RJ!). Or maybe winning the Naismith Award is a near-guarantee of being more successful than people think (hi, Jalen!).

I know, I know, people WAY smarter than me have been doing this for ages now. Just a slow news day. And it’s so often so bad (in hindsight, of course…).

By: KBA

KBA — Thu, 05 Sep 2024 18:15:31 +0000

On the spreadsheet, for those NBA players with “ugly” girlfriends (or boyfriends), what is the equivalent of “He gets on base” ? 😉

By: TNFH

TNFH — Thu, 05 Sep 2024 18:11:14 +0000

There have been a lot of attempts, including fairly successful ones, to develop predictive models when it comes to predicting NBA success based on NCAA and/or overseas statistics, physical measurements, etc.

Of course, we still see examples of guys with great projections busting and guys with mediocre-to-bad ones excelling (though I would say just from eyeballing it over the years, there are fewer examples of the latter).

Ultimately, I think the cliche answer here has a lot of truth to it: there’s a lot of important stuff we can’t model, or even scout. Michael Beasley dominated every aspect of NCAA basketball, but the models have no “smokes insane amounts of weed” input and thus missed the mark on him.

By: darules

darules — Thu, 05 Sep 2024 18:04:22 +0000

Strat-level spreadsheets to look for common denominators for busts and non-busts.

Do it! Someone will probably end up paying you a lot for it.