Who is the guy worth tanking for a 14% chance at this year?

We don’t know that ahead of time, no more than we knew Tyrese Haliburton or Steph Curry were worth tanking for a 14% chance at a few years back.

What we do know is that the chances of finding generational superstars go up dramatically at the highest draft slots, and this is the only way to get those people on value contracts. By giving ourselves multiple bites at the apple we are fairly likely to get one or more lucky outcomes.

It’s uncertain, but the payoff for this is absolutely astronomical and can set a team up for decades. Our #3 pick a few years back was RJ, an absolute bust. Just one year prior it was Doncic, who is already a top 5 player. If we had just given ourselves more good chances, we’d likely have players like Hali and Doncic instead of RJ and the bag of chips we got for Obi Toppin.

This really isn’t hard to understand, and arguments against it tend to rely on the kind of sophistry and willful blindness evident in your retort.

It has always felt that Dolan only really cares about the zillions of dollars falling into his pockets, along with not being embarrassed.

Dolan wants playoff gates for his public shareholders.

Thibs wants a roster of guys who he likes to work with, whose styles and personalities he favors, who won’t cause him any headaches or angina in his advancing years, and who will win enough to give Dolan playoff gates and keep the paychecks coming.

I don’t believe Dolan doesn’t care about winning. He does come to some games and when the TV shows him there he looks focused on the game in a way that makes it clear he’s a fan.

The league did a great job to discourage tanking, yessir…

Ironically, tanking may be an even better strategy now than before the flattening of the odds, simply by creating a perception among some that tanking is less valuable. This leads to fewer teams tanking, which raises the effectiveness of tanking for the teams that still pursue it.

One universal truth will never change: the distribution of basketball player value is extremely top-heavy and the best way to get a bargain on super-elite talent is via the draft. Without the draft such talent is not just extremely expensive, but often unavailable at any price.

It follows that tanking will always be optimal as long as it gives a substantial advantage in getting the most valuable assets in the game, and there is no question it still does.

And, with this rules, they’re right!

Hooo boy…