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	Comments on: Knicks Morning News (2023.11.20)	</title>
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	<description>Knicks, Stats, Humor, Analysis.</description>
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		<title>
		By: Bruno Almeida		</title>
		<link>https://knickerblogger.net/2023/11/knicks-morning-news-2023-11-20/#comment-870540</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Bruno Almeida]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 20 Nov 2023 23:38:43 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://knickerblogger.net/?p=20876#comment-870540</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[I just tend to view statistics as a meaningful resource as long as you know what they are trying to portray, so the generalizations can be bad while it might still be useful in specific cases if you understand the inherit bias behind them.

If you&#039;re comparing rim running centers, a list of WP for these players will pretty much give you a very accurate description of who is more effective in that specific role. The same goes for PER and high volume shooters. The issue really is expecting stats like those to give you an accurate picture of the entire NBA and to rank players properly across a bunch of different archetypes and sizes and etc.

All those stats can be useful tools, they just have to be weighted properly by people who understand the process behind them. I come from a very heavy soccer background and I think the fact that it&#039;s such an impossible game to capture with stats made me understand eventually that all encompassing stats won&#039;t work without context. Basketball is easier in that sense, but still complex enough that you really can&#039;t expect too much accuracy from those tools.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I just tend to view statistics as a meaningful resource as long as you know what they are trying to portray, so the generalizations can be bad while it might still be useful in specific cases if you understand the inherit bias behind them.</p>
<p>If you&#8217;re comparing rim running centers, a list of WP for these players will pretty much give you a very accurate description of who is more effective in that specific role. The same goes for PER and high volume shooters. The issue really is expecting stats like those to give you an accurate picture of the entire NBA and to rank players properly across a bunch of different archetypes and sizes and etc.</p>
<p>All those stats can be useful tools, they just have to be weighted properly by people who understand the process behind them. I come from a very heavy soccer background and I think the fact that it&#8217;s such an impossible game to capture with stats made me understand eventually that all encompassing stats won&#8217;t work without context. Basketball is easier in that sense, but still complex enough that you really can&#8217;t expect too much accuracy from those tools.</p>
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		<title>
		By: Z--man		</title>
		<link>https://knickerblogger.net/2023/11/knicks-morning-news-2023-11-20/#comment-870539</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Z--man]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 20 Nov 2023 23:28:59 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://knickerblogger.net/?p=20876#comment-870539</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[&quot;Missed FGs in PER is like giving bonuses for usage, which goes up with every missed shot (and even worse, for each TO)&quot;

Even so, PER correlates very strongly with oft-cited BPM, which folks use sll the time here, because, well, it&#039;s pretty good! Whereas, WP correlates with WS, which hardly anyone still uses here because, well, it&#039;s pretty bad!

In other words, it&#039;s way easier to correct for any inherent flaws in PER than it is for WP, except for extreme outliers. For the vast, vast majority of players, PER is the more accurate (or less inaccurate) metric. I don&#039;t see how that can possibly be disputed.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>&#8220;Missed FGs in PER is like giving bonuses for usage, which goes up with every missed shot (and even worse, for each TO)&#8221;</p>
<p>Even so, PER correlates very strongly with oft-cited BPM, which folks use sll the time here, because, well, it&#8217;s pretty good! Whereas, WP correlates with WS, which hardly anyone still uses here because, well, it&#8217;s pretty bad!</p>
<p>In other words, it&#8217;s way easier to correct for any inherent flaws in PER than it is for WP, except for extreme outliers. For the vast, vast majority of players, PER is the more accurate (or less inaccurate) metric. I don&#8217;t see how that can possibly be disputed.</p>
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		<title>
		By: Raven is a Big Black Bird		</title>
		<link>https://knickerblogger.net/2023/11/knicks-morning-news-2023-11-20/#comment-870538</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Raven is a Big Black Bird]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 20 Nov 2023 23:13:31 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://knickerblogger.net/?p=20876#comment-870538</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[So nice to read people arguing and disagreeing on the internet without resorting to name calling and insults. Thanks, guys, maybe there is hope.

Nah.

Speaking of hope, or lack thereof, over the Twolves&#039; last six games (5-1)  , KAT&#039;s averaging 26.7 points, 8.8 rebounds and three assists while shooting 59.4 percent from the field, 48.5 percent on 3s and 92.3 percent from the line. 

No during-game naps, Julius...]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>So nice to read people arguing and disagreeing on the internet without resorting to name calling and insults. Thanks, guys, maybe there is hope.</p>
<p>Nah.</p>
<p>Speaking of hope, or lack thereof, over the Twolves&#8217; last six games (5-1)  , KAT&#8217;s averaging 26.7 points, 8.8 rebounds and three assists while shooting 59.4 percent from the field, 48.5 percent on 3s and 92.3 percent from the line. </p>
<p>No during-game naps, Julius&#8230;</p>
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		<title>
		By: djphan		</title>
		<link>https://knickerblogger.net/2023/11/knicks-morning-news-2023-11-20/#comment-870537</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[djphan]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 20 Nov 2023 23:11:41 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://knickerblogger.net/?p=20876#comment-870537</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[owen&#039;s got it right.... there&#039;s usually an overcorrection once a discovery is made.. and things like how AI behaves in certain game formations kind of replicate this very human tendency.... 

in a game of rock paper scissors... the perfect strategy is to go rock... paper or scissors exactly 1/3 of the time... but if someone deviates and puts out.. for example... paper... like 40 percent of the time... the perfect strategy against that is to go scissor 100% of the time.... then the other guy adjusts and so and on and so forth.... 
same thing happened in baseball and other sports and things like poker and chess where big inefficiencies were discovered... it becomes the dominant strategy or way of thinking and people adjust... 

WP was going scissors 100% of the time... altho it wasn&#039;t some strategy or even a dominant anything.. it was more a speed bump... but it&#039;s biggest legacy was bringing an awareness to how current conventional wisdom wasn&#039;t sufficient... same thing with PER.. but it overdid it in a way where it needed be refined... or taken in a different direction altogether... but when you&#039;re trying to solve a big question ... knowing how and how why things don&#039;t work that have been tried is just as valuable as knowing things that do... it was immensely valuable in that regard....]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>owen&#8217;s got it right&#8230;. there&#8217;s usually an overcorrection once a discovery is made.. and things like how AI behaves in certain game formations kind of replicate this very human tendency&#8230;. </p>
<p>in a game of rock paper scissors&#8230; the perfect strategy is to go rock&#8230; paper or scissors exactly 1/3 of the time&#8230; but if someone deviates and puts out.. for example&#8230; paper&#8230; like 40 percent of the time&#8230; the perfect strategy against that is to go scissor 100% of the time&#8230;. then the other guy adjusts and so and on and so forth&#8230;.<br />
same thing happened in baseball and other sports and things like poker and chess where big inefficiencies were discovered&#8230; it becomes the dominant strategy or way of thinking and people adjust&#8230; </p>
<p>WP was going scissors 100% of the time&#8230; altho it wasn&#8217;t some strategy or even a dominant anything.. it was more a speed bump&#8230; but it&#8217;s biggest legacy was bringing an awareness to how current conventional wisdom wasn&#8217;t sufficient&#8230; same thing with PER.. but it overdid it in a way where it needed be refined&#8230; or taken in a different direction altogether&#8230; but when you&#8217;re trying to solve a big question &#8230; knowing how and how why things don&#8217;t work that have been tried is just as valuable as knowing things that do&#8230; it was immensely valuable in that regard&#8230;.</p>
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		<title>
		By: Stratomatic		</title>
		<link>https://knickerblogger.net/2023/11/knicks-morning-news-2023-11-20/#comment-870536</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Stratomatic]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 20 Nov 2023 23:05:49 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://knickerblogger.net/?p=20876#comment-870536</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[I haven&#039;t found any boxscore metric that doesn&#039;t either break down with some player profiles, that doesn&#039;t exclude relevant info, that captures defense well, or that can handle that line up combinations, role, system, and coaching matter.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I haven&#8217;t found any boxscore metric that doesn&#8217;t either break down with some player profiles, that doesn&#8217;t exclude relevant info, that captures defense well, or that can handle that line up combinations, role, system, and coaching matter.</p>
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		<title>
		By: Early Bird Writes		</title>
		<link>https://knickerblogger.net/2023/11/knicks-morning-news-2023-11-20/#comment-870535</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Early Bird Writes]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 20 Nov 2023 22:58:39 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://knickerblogger.net/?p=20876#comment-870535</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[WP is dumb, but it&#039;s dumb in an interesting way. Sometimes that&#039;s more important.

Missed FGs in PER is like giving bonuses for usage, which goes up with every missed shot (and even worse, for each TO)]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>WP is dumb, but it&#8217;s dumb in an interesting way. Sometimes that&#8217;s more important.</p>
<p>Missed FGs in PER is like giving bonuses for usage, which goes up with every missed shot (and even worse, for each TO)</p>
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		<title>
		By: Stratomatic		</title>
		<link>https://knickerblogger.net/2023/11/knicks-morning-news-2023-11-20/#comment-870534</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Stratomatic]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 20 Nov 2023 22:56:24 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://knickerblogger.net/?p=20876#comment-870534</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[SRS doesn&#039;t incorporate home/away, the fact that some teams have bigger advantages at home than others, &lt;strong&gt;injuries&lt;/strong&gt;, scheduling issues, easy wins where a team emptied their bench in garbage time and other things.  Some of that probably gets worked out by the end of the season, but some of it doesn&#039;t.  When I was betting games regularly Kevin Pelton gave me a copy of the spreadsheet that calculates SRS. I modified it to include my best estimate of some of those things and to also be able to process things like last 5 games, last 10 games, last 20 games to see trends.  It was better, but I&#039;m still not sure it&#039;s as good as just looking at the roster, following injuries, looking at matchups, and projecting how good a team is. Also, a lot changes in the playoffs in terms of minutes allocation, style of play, adjustments from game to game, and just how hard the teams are playing.  Still, it&#039;s as good as anything else for getting a quick gauge. I still think it takes about 20 games to start getting significant, but I base that on gambling experience and not any statistical study. I always had worse results early in the season when using SRS type data to help make my lines.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>SRS doesn&#8217;t incorporate home/away, the fact that some teams have bigger advantages at home than others, <strong>injuries</strong>, scheduling issues, easy wins where a team emptied their bench in garbage time and other things.  Some of that probably gets worked out by the end of the season, but some of it doesn&#8217;t.  When I was betting games regularly Kevin Pelton gave me a copy of the spreadsheet that calculates SRS. I modified it to include my best estimate of some of those things and to also be able to process things like last 5 games, last 10 games, last 20 games to see trends.  It was better, but I&#8217;m still not sure it&#8217;s as good as just looking at the roster, following injuries, looking at matchups, and projecting how good a team is. Also, a lot changes in the playoffs in terms of minutes allocation, style of play, adjustments from game to game, and just how hard the teams are playing.  Still, it&#8217;s as good as anything else for getting a quick gauge. I still think it takes about 20 games to start getting significant, but I base that on gambling experience and not any statistical study. I always had worse results early in the season when using SRS type data to help make my lines.</p>
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		<title>
		By: Owen		</title>
		<link>https://knickerblogger.net/2023/11/knicks-morning-news-2023-11-20/#comment-870533</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Owen]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 20 Nov 2023 22:52:52 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://knickerblogger.net/?p=20876#comment-870533</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Z-Man - Well, both metrics are bad,  I agree. PER didn&#039;t include defense at all. So the fact that it had a pretty big boner of a math error built in makes it worse to me. But lipstick on pigs.

They all correlate pretty well. And I would say that if PER performs better now it&#039;s mostly because of the revolution WP helped create. People care about efficiency now.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Z-Man &#8211; Well, both metrics are bad,  I agree. PER didn&#8217;t include defense at all. So the fact that it had a pretty big boner of a math error built in makes it worse to me. But lipstick on pigs.</p>
<p>They all correlate pretty well. And I would say that if PER performs better now it&#8217;s mostly because of the revolution WP helped create. People care about efficiency now.</p>
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		<title>
		By: cybersoze		</title>
		<link>https://knickerblogger.net/2023/11/knicks-morning-news-2023-11-20/#comment-870532</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[cybersoze]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 20 Nov 2023 22:42:59 +0000</pubDate>
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					<description><![CDATA[&lt;blockquote&gt;https://nypost.com/2023/11/20/sports/knicks-lawsuit-want-10-million-from-raptors-claim-adam-silver-compromised/&lt;/blockquote&gt;
Are we making two enemies now? Instead of just one (Raptors), we added a second (Silver).]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<blockquote><p><a href="https://nypost.com/2023/11/20/sports/knicks-lawsuit-want-10-million-from-raptors-claim-adam-silver-compromised/" rel="nofollow ugc">https://nypost.com/2023/11/20/sports/knicks-lawsuit-want-10-million-from-raptors-claim-adam-silver-compromised/</a></p></blockquote>
<p>Are we making two enemies now? Instead of just one (Raptors), we added a second (Silver).</p>
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		<title>
		By: Z--man		</title>
		<link>https://knickerblogger.net/2023/11/knicks-morning-news-2023-11-20/#comment-870531</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Z--man]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 20 Nov 2023 22:22:34 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://knickerblogger.net/?p=20876#comment-870531</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[PER is dumb. But WP yields results that are so dumb that they make the results of the metric I’m calling dumb look smart in comparison. Therefore I will continue to defend the much dumber metric over the one that closely correlates to today’s supposedly less dumb ones.

Okay.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>PER is dumb. But WP yields results that are so dumb that they make the results of the metric I’m calling dumb look smart in comparison. Therefore I will continue to defend the much dumber metric over the one that closely correlates to today’s supposedly less dumb ones.</p>
<p>Okay.</p>
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